Tropical Storm Melissa becomes hurricane risk as Florida on alert over new map
Weather forecasters have issued a dire warning that Tropical Storm Melissa will likely gather enough strength to become a hurricane as it barrels its way closer to Florida.
Weather forecasters have issued a dire warning that Tropical Storm Melissa will likely gather enough strength to become a hurricane as it barrels its way closer to Florida.
Despite being 1,000 miles away from the coast of the Sunshine State as of Wednesday, the storm is expected to gather enough strength to become a hurricane by Thursday. "There is significant uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Melissa," the National Hurricane Center said in a statement.
"Chances of a major hurricane increase if this forecast were to trend farther southwest," NHC forecasters added. According to the NHC, a major hurricane is defined by at least a category three storm with sustained winds of 111 mph.
It was reported on Wednesday that no warnings had been issued for Florida or the U.S. at this time, it is unclear whether or not the hurricane will reach the state. “At this time, I think the chances of any direct or even indirect impacts on Florida, beyond waves and rip currents, are very low, around 15% or so," AccuWeather lead hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said in an email to Naples Daily News.
Where will Melissa go?
"The more likely scenario is that the storm moves across Cuba and then heads out to sea," DaSilva added. "By the end of this week into the weekend, Melissa is expected to stall or move very slowly near Jamaica or Hispaniola. Sometimes when tropical cyclones stall, unexpected things can happen, so we’re watching closely."
DaSilva stated that, should the unexpected happen, Florida would likely see an impact, "it would likely be around the middle of next week — Wednesday through Friday (Oct. 29-31)." They added, "There’s nothing imminent right now, but it’s something to keep an eye on over the next few days as we monitor trends and model data.”
DaSilva's statement was backed up by Fox Weather hurricane expert Bryan Norcross, who also confirmed that Florida's chances of being hit "aren't zero, but they are extremely small." Norcross added, "The only way it could happen would be for Melissa to drift into the extreme western Caribbean before a dip in the jet stream moving across the U.S. came along to scoop it north."
Norcross added, "There is no indication of that in the current reasonable track scenarios, however. Still, a track over Cuba and the Bahamas is not out of the question." Accuweather commented that there was "a medium risk of tropical rain or wind impacts across the Bahamas and South Florida from Oct. 27-30."
Natural forces exerting influence
According to reports from Accuweather, Melissa's trajectory is being influenced by a "dip in the jet stream." According to DaSilva, later "this week that dip will move away into the Atlantic, leaving the storm in a weak steering flow. That’s why we expect it to stall near Jamaica or Hispaniola and possibly drift westward."
"The key question is how far west it can get. If it reaches the western Caribbean, Florida could come into play," they added. "We’ve seen late-season storms like Wilma take a similar route, though we’re not forecasting that kind of track right now."
DaSilva commented that "another dip in the jet stream is expected early to mid-next week" and that if Melissa is too far west before then, there is a chance that the storm could be flung toward South Florida. "The more likely outcome right now is that the storm stays east of Florida. We’ve seen a slight westward trend in the models over the past 12 hours, but that could be temporary," explained DaSilva.
"We’ll know more as new hurricane hunter data improves the model guidance over the next day or so," they added. "Weak steering currents make the forecast tricky, and that’s why you see such a wide spread in the model plots."