NASA Asteroid 2024 YR4 'city killer' puts 100 million people at risk in collision course
Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a one-in-32 chance of hitting Earth according to NASA scientists, and would be 500 times more powerful than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima should it make impact
More than 100 million people live at risk from a huge 'city killer' asteroid hurtling in the direction of Earth, NASA scientists have said.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is estimated to have a one-in-32 (3.1%) chance of hitting Earth on December 22, 2032, the highest probability recorded in over two decades. UN-backed teams of experts have reportedly already begun drawing contingency plans as to how to respond to the space object should the likelihood increase, including exploring any possible means of intervention.
NASA scientists also recently applied for emergency use of the of the James Webb space telescope, the most powerful in the world, to track YR4 over the next few months and collect more information about it. The asteroid is thought to be about 177 feet (54 metres) wide.
Should it hit Earth, the asteroid is powerful enough to wipe out a major city. It would release about 8 megatons of energy upon impact, which is over 500 times greater than the atomic bomb that destroyed Hiroshima in 1945.
YR4's projected trajectory would see it fly over eight of the world's 100 most populated cities, meaning 110 million people live in areas potentially at risk should it collide with our planet. This includes the Colombian capital Bogotá, Abidjan in the Ivory Coast, Nigeria's largest of city of Lagos, and Khartoum, the capital of Sudan. South Asia would also be in the 'risk corridor', including Mumbai and Kolkata India, along with the Bangladeshi capital of Dhaka.
There's also a small 0.3% chance that YR4 could hit the Moon instead, according to Live Science magazine. YR4 currently has a Torino Scale risk rating of 3 out of 10, meaning it would cause 'localised destruction', rather than a global civilisation-ending impact.
Further NASA observations of the asteroid will begin next month to get a better idea of its impact probability and its true size. In a blog post earlier this month, Moly Wasser from NASA Planetary Science Division said: "Nasa’s James Webb Space Telescope will observe the asteroid in March 2025. As more observations of the asteroid’s orbit are obtained, its impact probability will become better known. It is possible that asteroid 2024 YR4 will be ruled out as an impact hazard, as has happened with many other objects that have previously appeared on Nasa’s asteroid risk list. It is also possible its impact probability will continue to rise."