Lesson Planning Sheet Title: Using and Applying Probability Learning Objectives: By the end of the lesson: All
students should be able to determine a set of overlapping events given probabilities. Most students should be able to design an experiment to compare theoretical and experimental probabilities. Some students should be able to compare theoretical and experimental probabilities and understand the concept of relative frequency. Key words: Probability, Event, Theoretical, Experimental, Sample, Record, Frequency Learning Activities Starter/Introduction Using the first slide explain to the students that instead of being given the events and calculating the probability this lesson will be slightly more complicated since they will need to determine the events when given the probability. Therefore, they should determine which numbers from those presented would stay true to the probabilities given. Have the students work in pairs for this so they can check each others und erstanding. Emphasise that one event can be relevant for more than one probability. There are multiple correct answers for this therefore, have the students use their understanding or theoretical probability to peer assess. Development The second phase of the lesson is similar to the starter. However, this time a selection of numbers from which to choose is not provided so the problem becomes more open. There are three notebooks to choose from depending on the ability of the class. Use 5 events for the less able, 6 events for the core ability and 8 events for the most able class. This task can be extended by having the students create their own spinner by constructing a regular polygon on card using a pair of compasses and a straight edge. Having the class create their own spinner leads to greater bias in the design due to measurement inaccuracies. This is useful when comparing the experimental probabilities to the expected outcomes. Once the events are chosen and checked and the spinners have been made discuss with the students how many times the spinner should be spun in order for a good judgement to be made. Guide the students into identifying the greater the sample size the greater the accuracy of the judgement. Introduce the concept of relative frequency at this point. The students should then spin their spinner and record the results. Remind students that one event may fall within multiple probabilities. Plenary Discuss outcomes of experimental by posing the following questions: Were the actual results as expected form the given probabilities? Was the spinner biased towards a certain event? How do we know this? What could have led to any such bias? Resources: Card/Spinner Mini-whiteboards Pairs of Compasses Ruler Protractor Pretend money for gambling game.
Differentiation More able: Use more complex and open probabilities, such as, P(factor of 360) as opposed to P(factor or 10) Greater number of events More overlapping events Construct their own octagonal spinner Once the spinner has been created the students could determine the odds of the events given the experimental probabilities and base a gambling game around it using ratio. The spinner with the least bias could be the chosen spinner for the group. Core Group Use greater number of probabilities which rarely overlap Create the Hexagonal spinner by marking the radius of the spinner off around the circumference. This will create inherent bias in the spinner due to pi. Once the spinner has been created the students could determine the odds of the events given the experimental probabilities and base a gambling game around it using ratio. The teacher will need to support with creating these odds. The spinner with the least bias could be the chosen spinner for the group. Less Able Provide the Pentagonal spinner for the students. No overlapping of events and probabilities. Encourage the students to use a greater sample size in order to determine the accuracy of the spinner. Guide the students into recognising the difference between expected and actual results.
