Fast-Forward to 2025: New Mega Trends Transforming

the World as We Know It

Macro to Micro Opportunities on Future Design, Businesses and Our Personal
Lives

Agenda

1. Introduction and Definition of Mega Trends

2. Key Insights into the Global Mega Trends
3. Conclusions

4. The Macro to Micro Approach

What is a Mega Trend?

Top Mega Trends Covered By The Visionary Innovation
Research Division

What is a Mega Trend?

Mega trends are
transformative, global
forces that define the
future world with their far
reaching impact on
business, societies,
economies, cultures and
personal lives.

Urbanization
City as a
Customer

Bricks and
Clicks

Future
Infrastructure
Development

Smart is the
New Green

Innovating to
Zero

Health,
Wellness and
Well Being

Social Trends

New Business
Models: Value
for Many

Future of
Mobility

Connectivity
and
Convergence

Beyond BRIC:
The Next
Game
Changers

Future
of
Energy

News Headlines in 2025

Robots have entered our
homes for personal use.

Sensory devices guide our

everyday lives.

Mobile financial transactions

are now in crypto-currencies.

There are 6 million

autonomous cars in Europe
and North America.

Big data has entered the

Zettabyte era.

3D printing is commonplace.
4D printing is gaining
mainstream acceptance .

High Speed Rail line to

connect from London to
Beijing work begins

Summer Sale: Low-cost

holidays in space.

Connectivity &
Convergence

80 Billion Connected Devices

Globally By 2020
10 Connected Devices for
Every Household by 2020

5 connected devices for every

user by 2020

5 billion internet users by

2020

500 devices with unique

digital IDs (Internet of things)
per square kilometre by 2020
Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012

Sub Trend: Future Connected Living Ecosystem

Connected life contains three important aspects of connected home, connected city,
and connected work

Connected Living Total Market: $730 Billion in 2020

Connected Home 31%

Connected Work 15%

Mobility - Mobile

Connected City 54%

eGovernance

Home Automation

email, Unified

eCitizens

Home Energy

Communication

Personal and Freight

Home Health

Mobile Working

Mobility

Home Entertainment

Enterprise Social

E-learning

Networking

Mobile banking

Source: Frost & Sullivan

7

Case Study: Connected Homes B2B Platform Of Deutsche Telekom

QIVICON B2B Business Hub including partners
from
Automation
(E.g Belkin)

B2B

B2B2C

Security
(E.g Pax)

Appliances,
electronics (A&E)
Miele, Samsung

Health
(E.g
Tunstall)

Multimedia
(E.g
Samsung)

Energy
EnBW, Solon

QIVICON CONNECTED HOME PLATFORM for

consumers aggregating service from all partners.

Consumer Homes
8

Augmented Reality
Augmented Reality (AR) is defined as a real-time augmented view of the environment through digital data
through use of text, sound, graphics, video, and navigation systems that increases users interactivity with the
local environment . This extends business and mobility options, social interactions and experiences which has
implications on personal lives, businesses and even day-to-day activities.

Reality

Augmented Reality

Augmented Virtuality

Virtual World

Augmented Reality Impacting Different Personal Experiences

Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012

10

Implication: Connectivity Is Pushing Convergence

Connectivity will Accelerate Convergence of Industries, Products, Technologies and
Competition
Space Industry

Solar Industry

Space Based Solar

Power

INDUSTRIES

Car

Unmanned Technology

Autonomous Cars

Building Technologies

Smart Automation

Smart Home Hubs

PRODUCTS

TECHNOLOGIES

Image Source:: `Creative Commons and Dreamstime.

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis

11

Impact of Connectivity and Convergence - Virtual Design &

Development Nirvana
Shorter Design and Product Development Cycles Examples in Healthcare and
Auto Industry
Digital Automotive Factory
(VW Example)

Bio Simulation in Healthcare

Can Save $200 to 300 million in
drug development

12

Bricks and Clicks

13

Future of Clicks in Retail Industry

Global Online Retail Sales To Reach $4.3 Trillion By 2025 Accounting
for 19% of Total Retail
United Kingdom
$0.21
Trillion
26%

$23
Trillion

China
$1.30
Trillion
18%

$11.8
Trillion
15%

24%

95%

5%

$11.25
Trillion

10%

Germany
$0.09
Trillion

$18.7
Trillion

81%

$4.3
Trillion

19%

Japan
$0.17
Trillion

United States
$1.32
Trillion

$0.55
Trillion

2011

Online Sales

Non-Online Sales

2025
14

Bricks and Clicks: Impact of Bricks and Clicks on Store Formats

Retail Formats Are Becoming Smaller and Unique With More Emphasis Being Placed on the
Concept and Urban Location of the Store

Evolution of Retail Formats, Global, 19702012

Era of Expansion

Era of Contraction

140000

Hypermarkets

Average Store Size (Sqft)

120000

Club
Warehouses

100000

Supermarkets

80000

60000

Convenience
Stores

Concept Stores

40000

20000

Grocery
Stores

Express Stores

0
Pre-1970s

1970s

1980s

1990s

2000

2010

2012

2013

Source: RetailNet and Frost & Sullivan Analysis.

15

Urbanization Will Compel Retailers to Shrink Store Sizes

Retailer Store Size to be 15-20% Less than the Current Average Store
Size by 2020
Big-Box

Small-Box
15%-20%
smaller

Examples of New Small Format Stores

Tesco Express

eBay Pop Up
Store

John Lewis
Small Stores
16

Connectivity in Retail: Emerging Technologies

Technology Converting Buyers into Multi-Channel Shoppers
Augmented Reality
Wal-Mart

Location-based services
Foursquare

Holography
Diesel

Body Scanners
Selfridges

QR Coding
Home Depot
Motion Sensing
Tesco Store Trek

17

Case Study: Audi City London - First Digital Car Showroom

Example of Future Digital Car Showrooms that will be Unlimited, Personalised, Socially Connected
and Digitally Integrated
Fully Digital,
Retail-Style Cyberstore
One-stop Experience
for Entire Model Range

Highly personalized
customer dialogue
Gamification, Augmented
Reality Offers Tailormade services
Specially Trained Dealer
Personnel Interactivity

London Flagship Store

18

Smart is the New

Green

20

Mega Trend :

Urbanisation - City
as a Customer

21

Mega Cities

Mega
Regions

Mega
Corridor

Smart and
Sustainable
Cities
22

Cities, and Not Countries, Will Drive

Wealth Creation In the Future
Cities like Seoul account for 50% of the
South Koreas GDP; Budapest (Hungary)
and Brussels (Belgium) each for roughly
45%.
Top 4 Metropolitan Cities (Rhine-Rur (15%
GDP), Munich, Frankfurt, Berlin) to account
for 57% of Germanys GDP by 2025

What are the Micro Implications?

High Economic Power
Hub and Spoke Business Model
Transit oriented development
New Mobility Solutions

City as a Customer
23

Case Study : How Siemens Aligns Itself to Mega Trends

Source : Siemens AG. All rights reserved

24

Case Study : City as A Customer What does it mean to Car

Industry?
New mobility business
models like car sharing

Connected Driving e.g.

V2V and V2I

Cars designed around

Cities and not cities
designed around cars

New urban vehicle

technologies like Traffic
Jam Assist, Valet
Parking

Digital Retail Stores

City Taxis
(perhaps Autonomous
in future)

25

Social Trends

27

Women Empowerment
Demographic shifts are driving the empowerment of women
1

Leadership

There are 117 female

directors of FTSE 100
companies
4

Wealth

By 2020 over half of

millionaires in the UK will
be female

Earnings

Female junior exec pay in

the UK is rising faster than
male counterparts
5

Entrepreneurship

The number of womenowned businesses

increased by 59% in the US
since 2000

Education

Women are getting the

majority of higher
education awards
6

Power

In Nordic countries
women could soon have
equal political power

Women Dominate Social Media

Women are the routers and amplifiers of the social web
So What?
Women in the UK are said to control
online purchasing (60%) and
mobile purchasing (one in six
women compared to one in nine
men)

845m active users

57% Female

127m active users

50%
Female

Women are said to be more

likely than men to interact with
and about brands online

150m active users

68%
Female

90m active visitors

82% Female

Women are said to control

between 80% and 90% of key
spending categories worldwide

Case Study : Women Drivers

Certain societies are leading in the closing of gender parity

Personalised Vehicles

In the US from
2012 there were
more women
drivers than men

Driving dynamics
personalisation
Mood lighting

High Quality Materials

In the UK women
licence holders are
rising (whilst men
are declining) and
women are also
driving more often
and for longer

Non wearable materials

Sustainable and natural
fabric

What does it mean

to car companies

Seamless Connectivity
Touchscreens and gesture
control
NFC enabled
Integration with personal
devices

Mega Trend :
Innovating to Zero

31

Snapshot of a Zero Concept World in 2020

Zero Defects
and Zero
Faults

Carbon Neutral
Cities

Zero Waste/
Emissions
Zero Emails

Complete
Recyclability from
Households (Cradle
to Cradle Concept)

Zero
Corporate
Debts

Zero
Emissions
from Cars
Zero
Accidents

Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012

Carbon Neutral
Factories and
Retail Stores

Zero
Breaches of
Security

Zero Crime
Rates

32

Examples of Innovating to Zero

Off-the-Grid Buildings On-site Energy Harvest Use of Intelligent Systems Increase use of renewable energy
Net Zero Hospitals -

Zero faults and zero errors in manufacturing

Highly Strict Quality Control

Cutting Edge IT Infrastructure and Services that convert Ideas to

implementation on real-time
Instant File Sharing Networking Interfaces Zero Management Gaps Zero Processing TimeZero Learning Gaps-

Zero Energy
Building

Zero Defects

Zero Time
Business
Incubation

Carbon Neutral
City

Zero Accidents

Zero DesignTo-Shelf
(Retail)

- Energy efficient buildings

- Greener Transport
- Waste Reduction and
Waste Recycling
- Increase use of Renewable
Energy

- Strong Health and Safety

Measures
- Safety Days (eg. Shell)
- Life-Saving Rules within
facilities
- Active safety systems in
vehicles that over ride
drivers
- In-house design, cutting,
finishing
- Continuous, speedy
deliveries
- Direct point-of-sale data
collection,
- Daily analysis of product
sales and customer
feedback using software
analytics
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012

33

Mega Trend :

New Business Models:

Value for Many

34

Personalization &
Customization
Nike and BMW
Personalization and
Customization
Co-Creation
Quirky .com

New Business Models

One-off Experience
(BMW on Demand)

Pay as you go
PAYD and
PAHYD Car
Insurance

35
Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

Free

Premium

Value for Many

=

Freemium

Will Replace

Value for Money

Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012

36
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

Case Study: Volkswagen Group To Implement Modular Tool Kit Strategy To

Design and Sell Same Cars in Global Markets With Local Personalisation
MQB - Modular Transverse Matrix (Number one
platform-2020)

Development from platform strategies to modular tool

kits

Source: Volkswagen, Frost & Sullivan analysis

37

Conclusions

Some Key Trends that are Important and Not Discussed

Today

Circular Economy

Health, Wellness, and

Wellbeing

Virtual Currency

Future of Mobility

Deep Sea Mining

3D/4D Printing

Space Jam

Future of Energy (shale

gas)

39

Utilities of The Past

19TH CENTURY

LATE 20TH CENTURY

Electricity

The Internet

18TH CENTURY

20TH CENTURY

Industrial
Revolution

Communication
Industry

21st century
utilities?

40

21st Century Utilities: What is the Future ?

Mobility ?

Big data ?

Healthcare ?

Media ?

41

From Macro to Micro: Taking Mega Trends from Information to

Strategy Implementation
Macro

To

Micro

Mega Trend

Analysis of Opportunities and

Unmet Needs

Selected trends that impact your

business and markets

Sub Trend

Impact on Future Product/

Technology

A sub-layer of trends that has a

wide ranging impact

Impact to Your Industry

Visualising the roadmap of these
critical forces through scenariobuilding and macro economic
forecasts
42

Learn More About New Mega Trends

Published Book:

New Mega Trends

Implications for our Future Lives

By Sarwant Singh
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
http://www.palgrave.com/products/title.aspx?pid=5774
23

Join Our Mega Trend

Group On
Mega Trends: Strategic
Planning and Innovation
Based on Frost & Sullivan
Research

Follow Sarwants
series on Mega
Trends on
Forbes.com

http://www.forbes.co
m/sites/sarwantsing
h/
43

Questions and Answers

44