From: Parker,Kyle(HFAC)<Kyle.Parker@mail.house.

gov>
Senttime: 04/24/201609:30:10AM
To: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: Fwd:PleasecallmetodiscussMagnitsky

Beginforwardedmessage:

From:"Walitsky,Sue(Cardin)"<Sue_Walitsky@cardin.senate.gov>
Date:April22,2016at20:50:41EDT
To:"Parker,Kyle(HFAC)"<Kyle.Parker@mail.house.gov>
Subject:Re:PleasecallmetodiscussMagnitsky

Thanksmuch!

SUEWALITSKY
NationalCommunicationsDirector
U.S.SenatorBenCardin
sue_walitsky@cardin.senate.gov
2022244524office
2023200819cell

From:Parker,Kyle(HFAC)
Sent:Friday,April22,20167:40PM
To:Walitsky,Sue(Cardin)
Subject:Re:PleasecallmetodiscussMagnitsky

Sue,I'mgoingtoprepareadraftresponsetotheseassertionsincaseyoudecidetogetbacktoKen.Obviously,
SenatorCardinwon'tgetintotheweeds,butperhapsamoredetailedresponsefromhisspokespersonmaybethe
bestwaytoshutthisdown.I'llsendyouwhatIhavetomorrowandyoucandowithitasyouplease.

OnApr22,2016,at16:12,Walitsky,Sue<sue_walitsky@cardin.senate.gov>wrote:

Thanks.ThisistheemailinquiryIreferencedinmyvoicemail.ChrisLynchaskedmetotouchbase
withyoutodiscuss.Pleasedonotforwardit.Talksoon.Hopeyouaredoingwell.

SUE




*************************************
SUE WALITSKY
National Communications Director
Office of U.S. Senator Ben Cardin (DMD)
(202) 2286232 direct
(202) 3200819 cell

The information contained in this email should be considered background information and not for
attribution or direct quotation unless otherwise indicated.



From:Dilanian,Ken(NBCUniversal)[mailto:Ken.Dilanian@nbcuni.com]
Sent:Friday,April22,20162:41PM
To:Walitsky,Sue(Cardin)<Sue_Walitsky@cardin.senate.gov>;Zink,Tim(Cardin)
<Tim_Zink@cardin.senate.gov>;Welch,Marty(Cardin)<Marty_Welch@cardin.senate.gov>
Subject:magnitskyactnbcnewsinquiry

Hi,guys,

Weareworkingonastoryaboutseriousquestionsthathavearisenaboutthenarrativethatdrove
theMagnitskyActandthestatementsofBillBrowder,whoIunderstandmetwithSen.Cardin
severaltimesaboutthismatter.NoonedisputesthatMagnitskydiedaftermedicalneglectina
rottenRussianjailsystem.But,forexample,Magnitskywasnotalawyer,asBrowdercallshim;there
isnoevidencehewasbeateninprison,asBrowderhasalleged;anditsclearfrompoliceandcourt
recordsthathewasntdetainedbecauseheblewthewhistleonanallegedfraudscheme.Hewas
detainedovertaxevasionbyBrowderscompanies.Infact,therearecredibleallegationsincourt
documentsthatBrowderandhisassociatesaresuspectsinthefraudandthatBrowderconcocted
thewhistleblowerstorytocoverthatup.Allthesupposedlyindependentreportsaboutthisinthe
mediaand,forexample,bytheCouncilofEurope,gottheirkeyinformationfromBrowderorfrom
peoplewhotracebacktoBrowder,itappearstous.ARussianfilmmakerwhohasbeencriticalof
PutinsetouttomakeafilmaboutMagnitsky,andashestarteddiggingintothestory,heconcludedit
wasafraud.ANewYorklawfirmdefendingaRussiancompanyinacivilforfeiturecasehas
concludedthesamething,andhasuncoveredreamsofevidencethroughdiscoverythatcallsthe
originalstoryintoquestion.

Weplantopublishsomethingaboutthisnextweek,andIwantedtogiveSen.Cardinachanceto
commentonit.Heisnotalargepartofthestory,andiftheseallegationsaretrue,heisoneofmany
smartandinfluentialpeoplewhoweremisled,obviously.

Thanks.

KenDilanian
NationalSecurityReporter,InvestigativeUnit

 From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 01/13/201611:26:53PM
To: kramer<david.j.kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: Mead-AssessingObama'sforeignpolicy|ISPI

http://www.ispionline.it/en/pubblicazione/assessing-obamas-foreign-policy-14441

AssessingObama'sforeignpolicy
PresidentObamasfinalStateoftheUnionaddresscomesatatimewhen,forthefirsttimeinhisadministration,the
publicbelievesthatthenationsmostseriousproblemsinvolveforeignpolicyratherthandomesticissues,themajority
disapprovesofthePresidentshandlingofforeignaffairs,and73percentsaytheywantthenextPresidenttotakea
differentapproachtoforeignpolicy.PresidentObama,forhispart,remainsdeeplycommittedtohisapproachtoforeign
affairs,isdeterminedtocontinueonhiscurrentcoursethroughtheendofhismandate,andwantsanewkindofforeign
policytobepartofthepoliticallegacyofhisadministration.

Thiswillbeanuphillbattle.EvenHillaryClinton,thePresidentsformerSecretaryofState,hasmovedtodistance
herselffromsomeofthePresidentssignaturepolicies.(ShewouldhavebeenmoreinterventionistinSyria,morepatient
withIsrael,lessforthcomingwithRussia.)AsfortheRepublicans,SenatorRandPaulwasthecandidatewhoseforeign
policyviewsmostresemblethoseofthePresident,andinlargepartbecauseofthechangesinpublicsentimentthatthe
Presidentisstrugglingwith,SenatorPaulhasnowbeenrelegatedtothesecond,insignificanttierofRepublicanhopefuls
anddroppedfromtheprincipaldebates.

PresidentObamaandSenatorPaulbothstandwithintheJeffersoniantraditionofAmericanforeignpolicy.Thisschool
ofthoughtbelievesthattheprinciplesoftheAmericanRevolutionfarebestwhenAmericanforeignpolicyisleastactive.To
activelyseekAmericasManifestDestinythroughtheexpansionofAmericasglobalrole,Jeffersoniansbelieve,exposesthe
UnitedStatestoforeignhostility,endangerscivillibertiesathome,andentanglestheUnitedStateswithuntrustworthy
powerswhoarefundamentallyhostiletoAmericanideals.Americacanbestchangetheworld,Jeffersoniansbelieve,by
cultivatingitsowngardenandsettinganexampleofdemocraticprosperitythatotherswillemulate.

PresidentObamasapproachtoIran,thelynchpinofhisMiddleEasternstrategy,isaclassicexampleofJeffersonian
statecraftthroughwhichObamahopestostabilizeandultimatelydemocratizetheMiddleEastwhilereducingAmericas
profileintheregion.ByachievinganuclearagreementandreopeningIranseconomytotheworld,Obamahopestoreduce
thechancesforwar(andtheneedforcloseAmericanallianceswithdifficultallieslikeIsraelandSaudiArabia)while
acceleratingthedemocratictransitionofamodernizingIranbyintegratingthatcountryintointernationalmarkets.

TheoriginalgranddesignoftheObamaglobalstrategywaslooselymodeledontheNixon/Kissingerforeignpolicy:a
mixofdtente,withdrawalandengagement.WhereNixonandKissingerpursueddtentewiththeSovietUnion,withdrawal
fromIndochinaandoutreachtoChina,ObamaproposeddtentewithRussia,SunniIslam,andIranwithdrawalfromIraq
andthepivottoAsiaasanewkindofAmericanengagementinAsia.

PartsoftheObamapolicyarelesscontroversialthanothers.Inparticular,thepursuitofclosertieswithAsiannations
concernedaboutarisingChinaislikelytoremainafeatureinAmericanforeignpolicynomatterwhooccupiestheWhite
HouseinJanuaryofnextyear.Otherelementsofhisforeignstrategyaregenerallyconsideredtohavefailed.ThenextWhite
House,DemocraticorRepublican,islikelytotakeaharderlinewithMoscowandtotakeahardandskepticallookatthe
Presidentscounterterrorismstrategy.

ThemostimportantopenquestionremainsthefateofPresidentObamasoutreachtoIran.Thenuclearagreement,
slatedtogointoeffectthesameweekastheStateoftheUnionaddress,wasthemostimportantdiplomaticagreement
reachedunderPresidentObamaandremainshighlycontroversialintheUnitedStates.Thecontroversyislessoverthe
specifictermsoftheagreementthanaboutwhetherdtentewithIrancanbeachievedontermsthatreduceratherthan
exacerbatethechaoticsituationintheMiddleEastasawhole.ThelogicofPresidentObamasIranandRussiapolicies,for
example,stronglysuggestsanultimateAmericanacquiescenceinthecontinuedpresenceoftheAssadgovernmentin
DamascusaspartofanoverallpoliticalsettlementinSyria.ForPresidentObama,acquiescinginadefactoIraniansphere
ofinfluenceextendingfromBasrainsouthernIraqtoBeirut,evenifIranandRussiaremainaligned,canpotentiallybeseen
asthefirststepinstabilizingtheMiddleEastwhilereducingAmericasprofilethere.Itisnotatallclearthatanyofthe
currentcontendersforthepresidency,HillaryClintonnotexcluded,wouldagreewiththatassessment.
Ultimately,thefutureofPresidentObamasIranpolicywillbedecidedbyeventsontheground.TraditionalAmerican
alliesintheregion,SaudiArabia,Egypt,IsraelandnowincreasinglyTurkeyarepushingagainsttheoutreachtoIranthe
PresidentremainscommittedtohispolicybutasPresidentObamaapproachestheendofhisterm,bothinIranand
elsewherepolicymakerswillincreasinglydiscounthimasafactorinfutureAmericanpolicyanditisimpossibletopredict
howtheregionalenvironmentwillevolve.

Jihadiviolenceisanotherwildcard.Sensationalattacks,liketheoneinParis,orlonewolfattacksliketheoneinSan
BernardinoaredeeplyunsettlingtoAmericanpublicopinion.ThePresidentiscommittedtotheargumentthatoverreaction
leadstocounterproductivepolicydecisionshehassofarfailedtobringthepublicwithhim.Ifthepaceand/ortheintensity
ofsuchattacksincreasesduring2016,theimpactonpublicopinionandevenontheelectioncouldbedecisive,withmajor
consequencesforthePresidentslegacy.

ManyobserversathomeandabroadmisunderstandPresidentObamasforeignpolicy,seeinghimasskepticalof
Americanclaimstoauniqueglobalrole.Onthecontrary,PresidentObamasJeffersionianminimalismisanimatedbyan
overwhelmingfaithintheunstoppablepowerofAmericanideals.Iraninparticular,thePresidentbelieves,ismoving
Americasway.Theyoung,educatedpopulationoftheIslamicRepublicwillpushthecountryirresistiblytowardsomekind
ofaccommodationwithwesternideasinwaysthatthelessadvancedGulfmonarchiescannothopetoemulate.The
Presidenthasrepeatedlydeclaredthatthetideofhistorywillcarryeveryonetoliberaldemocraticshores.Hedismisses
challengestoAmericanpowerasmereshort-termconcernsPutin,themullahsandtheterroristsareincapableofreversing
themarchofhistoryorofdestabilizingtheworldsystem.

ThenextPresidentisunlikelytobeasoptimisticwhatthatmeansforAmericanforeignpolicyremainstobeseen.

WalterRussellMeadistheDistinguishedScholarinAmericanStrategyandStatesmanshipattheHudsonInstitute,the
JamesClarkeChaceProfessorofForeignAffairsandHumanitiesatBardCollege,andEditor-at-LargeofTheAmerican
Interest.
 From: DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Senttime: 07/10/201608:33:59AM
To: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: FW:TrumpsRussiaadvisercriticizesU.S.forhypocriticalfocusondemocratization

Justbetweenus.InsightfulcommentsfromEdbelowthePostarticle.

From:EdwardS.Verona[mailto:everona@maglobal.com]
Sent:Friday,July08,20163:06PM
To:DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject:FW:TrumpsRussiaadvisercriticizesU.S.forhypocriticalfocusondemocratization

David,

Iimaginethatyouhaveseenthearticlebelow,butincaseyouhavent

FurtherbelowissomethingthatIwroteafteranearlierBloombergarticlefirstbroughtCarterPagesnametolight.Ithought
youmightbeinterested.

Regards,Ed

From:CatalinaPiccato
Sent:Friday,July08,20162:45PM
To:RichardBurtEdwardS.VeronaPhilippeMaze-SencierCarolineWoodwardReneeSlawsky
Subject:TrumpsRussiaadvisercriticizesU.S.forhypocriticalfocusondemocratization

TrumpsRussiaadvisercriticizesU.S.forhypocriticalfocusondemocratization
ByAndrewRothJuly7
WashingtonPost

MOSCOWAnAmericanforeign-policyadvisertoDonaldTrumpchidedtheUnitedStatesonThursdayforanoften-
hypocriticalfocusondemocratization,inequality,corruptionandregimechangeinitsdealingswithRussia,ChinaandCentral
Asia.

CarterPage,anenergyexecutivetappedbythepresumptiveRepublicannomineescampaignforhisbusinessexperienceinthe
formerSovietUnion,toldstudentsandjournalistsgatheredinaMoscowlecturehallthatWashingtonhadmissedopportunitiesto
workwithleaderssuchasRussiasVladimirPutinandChinasXiJinpingbecauseithadignoredprinciplesofrespect,equality
andmutualbenefit.

Pagesremarksputhim,likeTrump,atsharpoddswiththeObamaadministrationandtraditionalRepublicanpolicycircles,which
haveviewedRussiainmoreadversarialtermsoverthewarinSyria,theconflictinUkraineandotherissues.Thebilateral
relationshiphassouredtoColdWar-eralevelsinrecentyears.

PagerefusedtocommentspecificallyontheU.S.presidentialelection,hisrelationshipwithTrumporU.S.sanctionsagainst
Russia,sayinghewasinRussiaasaprivatecitizen.HegavealecturetitledTheEvolutionoftheWorldEconomy:Trendsand
Potential,inwhichhenotedthatRussiaandChinahadachievedsuccessinCentralAsia,unliketheUnitedStates,bypursuinga
respectfulforeignpolicybasedonmutualinterest.

HegenerallyavoidedquestionsonU.S.foreignpolicy,butwhenoneattendeeaskedhimwhetherhereallybelievedtheUnited
Stateswasaliberal,democraticsociety,Pagetoldhimtoreadbetweenthelines.

IfImunderstandingthedirectionyourecomingfrom,Itendtoagreewithyouthatitsnotalwaysasliberalasitmayseem,he
said.Imwithyou.

InameetingwithTheWashingtonPosteditorialboardinMarch,TrumpnamedPage,aformerMerrillLynchexecutiveinMoscow
wholateradvisedtheRussianstateenergygiantGazpromonmajoroilandgasdeals,asoneofhisforeign-policyadvisers.Page
refusedtosaywhetherhisMoscowtripincludedameetingwithRussianofficials.Heisscheduledtodeliveragraduationaddress
FridayattheNewEconomicSchool,aspeechthatsomeofficialsareexpectedtoattend.

TrumphasnotoutlinedaspecificpolicyconcerningRussiaandtheformerSovietUnion,butheisbroadlynoninterventionist,
questioningtheneedfortheNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganizationandcallingforEuropetoplayalargerroleinensuringitssecurity.

PagesappointmentfollowedcriticismthatTrumpwasthinonforeign-policyexperience.Trump,inaMarchappearanceon
MSNBCsMorningJoe,wasaskedwhohistopforeign-policyconsultantwas.Heresponded:Imspeakingwithmyself,
numberone,becauseIhaveaverygoodbrainandIvesaidalotofthings....Myprimaryconsultantismyself.

PageisanoutsidertoRepublicanpolicymakingcircles.ButhehasregularlycriticizedU.S.interventionandonThursdayquoted
PutininRussianassayingthathiscountrydoesnotinterveneintheinternalpoliticsofothernations.

InonearticleforGlobalPolicyJournal,hewrote,FromU.S.policiestowardRussiatoIrantoChina,sanctimoniousexpressions
ofmoralsuperioritystandattherootofmanyproblemsseenworldwidetoday.

PagewrotethatthewarineasternUkrainewasprecipitatedbyU.S.meddlingintheMaidanrevolution,areferencetothe2014
demonstrationsthatledtotheousterofPresidentViktorYanukovych.U.S.officialshaveaccusedRussiaoforchestratingthe
subsequentannexationofCrimeaandofbackingpro-MoscowseparatistsineasternUkraine.

PageisnotTrumpsonlyadviserwithtiestoformerSoviet-blocpolitics.PaulManafort,hiscampaignmanager,servedasa
consultantforYanukovychbeforetheRussian-backedUkrainianleaderwasoverthrown.

DearColleagues,

IspenteightyearslivingandworkinginMoscow,bothasaForeignServiceOfficercoveringtheenergysectorand,later,
asanoilandgasindustryexecutive.IworkedanothertwoyearsinKazakhstanheadingthelocalofficeofamajorU.S.
oilandgascompany.Icannotbeaccusedofbeingoneofthepeoplefromafar,sittinginthecomfortoftheirthink
tanksinWashington.Withthatsaid,Itakethelibertyofmakingafewbynomeansexhaustiveobservationson
CarterPage'sbackgroundandviews.

WithPage'sappointmentasanadvisortotheTrumpcampaign,UkrainiansteelmagnateVictorPinchuk(see
highlightsbelow)nowhasalinktobothTrumpandHillaryClinton.Between2009and2013,whileClintonwas
SecretaryofState,Pinchukdonated$8.6milliontotheClintonFoundation.In2008Pinchukmadea$29million
commitmenttotheClintonGlobalInitiative,makinghimthesinglelargestbenefactorofthatorganization.
WhateverotherimplicationstheremightbetotheassociationwithPinchuk,attheveryleastthiswouldseemto
impedeTrumpfromraisingClinton'spotentiallydamagingrelationshipwithaforeignoligarchasanissueduring
thegeneralelectioncampaign.
Accordingtothearticle,PagewasassignedtoMoscowbyMerrillLynchin2004andbeganbuildingrelationships
withGazpromexecutives.AtthattimeGazpromshareswereringfencedtopreventforeignersfromowningthose
thatwerepubliclytradedinMoscow.ForeignerswerelimitedtopurchasinghigherpricedADRs.Russianbuyers,
especiallygovernmentinsiders,acquiredsubstantialblocksofGazpromsharesinanticipation(and
foreknowledge)oftheliftingoftheringfence.Thesharepricerosemeteoricallyoncetheringfencewas
eliminatedinDecember2005.Itwasundoubtedlyalucrativeopportunityforanybodyintheequitytrading
business.
Pagesaysthathe"advised"Gazpromonsomeofitslargestdeals,specificallythepurchaseof"astakeinthe
Sakhalinoilandgasfield".ThisreferstooneofthemostcolorfulepisodesofcorporateraidingofthePutinera.
ThefieldinquestionanditsassociatedLNGplantwasSakhalin2,thenwhollyownedbyaninternational
consortium(SakhalinEnergy)ledbyShell.Previously,GazpromhadshownlittleinterestintheRussianFarEast,
focusinginsteadonitsEuropeanmarketsandupgradingitsinfrastructureinRussia'smorewesterlyregions.
However,whentheSakhalinprojectwasapproachingcompletion,GazpromorsomebodyintheKremlin
decidedthatitwasunseemlyforaforeigncompanytoexportthefirstoilandLNGfromRussiatoAsiaPacific
markets.Onthepretextofhavingcommittedegregiousecologicaldamage,Shellanditsconsortiumpartners
wereeffectivelyforcedtosellhalfoftheprojectandyieldlegalcontroltoGazprom.TherolethatPagemight
haveplayedinthisisunclear(andwaslikelyminor,ifany),buthismentionofitisinteresting.Indeed,thetactics
usedbyGazprominexpropriatingthepropertyrightsoftheconsortiumarelikeTrump'suseofeminentdomain
onlyonsteroids.
Finally,PagesaysthatheadvisedtheTurkmenistangovernmentin2008onattractingforeignequityinvestment.
 ItisworthpointingoutthatthefollowingyearGazpromthecompanyPagewaspreviouslyadvisingsabotaged
themaingaspipelinebetweenTurkmenistanandRussiabyshuttingoffthevalveswithouttellingthe
Turkmenistanis.Theresultingpressurebuildupcausedaruptureandexplosionofthelineandamajor
compressorstation.AtthetimeGazpromwastryingtoreduceitspurchasesofTurkmenistanigasand,tomany
observers,thetechnicaldisruptionofthepipelineseemedintendedtoavoidcostly"takeorpay"provisionsinthe
contract.SuchtacticsarebynomeansunusualforGazprom.

Regards,Ed

 From: ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>
Senttime: 04/23/201611:53:02AM
To: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:GADesi.ThevideoImentionedisreferredtobelowwithoutalink

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pf9Jo5oUdq8(Clearlyfromsomeyearsago-ZolotovisrightbehindRotenberg)

OnSat,Apr23,2016at11:52AM,Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:

http://www.gadesi.com/news_detail.php?news_id=37468

Allthepresidentsmen:RussianPresidentPutinssecret
moneynetwork

ArkadyRotenbergwithhisclosefriend,theRussianPresidentVladimirPutin.

Wrtittenby:JakeBernstein,PetraBlum,OliverZihlmann,DavidThompson,FrederikObermaierandBastian
Obermayer

VladimirPutinandSergeyRolduginforgedabondasyoungmen.Fastfriends,almostlikebrothers,theycruisedthestreetsof
Leningrad,singingand,inPutinscase,occasionallygettingintofistfights.

AsPutinrosetopowerasRussiassupremeleaderandRolduginmadeanameforhimselfasaclassicalcellistandconductor,the
tworemainedclose.RolduginhasperformedforPutinandhigh-profileguestsatthepresidentsofficialresidenceandhasgiven
mediainterviewsthatsoftenedPutinsfearsomeimage.

Nowaleakofsecretdocumentsrevealsanother,hiddensideoftheirfriendship.

TherecordsshowRolduginisabehind-the-scenesplayerinaclandestinenetworkoperatedbyPutinassociatesthathasshuffled
atleast$2billionthroughbanksandoffshorecompanies,aninvestigationbytheInternationalConsortiumofInvestigative
Journalists,GermandailySddeutscheZeitungandothermediapartnershasfound.

Inthedocuments,Rolduginislistedastheownerofoffshorecompaniesthathaveobtainedpaymentsfromothercompanies
worthtensofmillionsofdollars.ItspossibleRoldugin,whohaspubliclyclaimednottobeabusinessman,isnotthetrue
beneficiaryoftheseriches.Instead,theevidenceinthefilessuggestsRolduginisactingasafrontmanforanetworkofPutin
loyalistsandperhapsforPutinhimself.

Roldugindidnotrespondtodetailedquestions.

Watch|PanamaPapers:APeekIntoIndiaExpress8MonthLongInvestigation

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OsLC438tLU4&w=640&h=390]

About100financialdealsrelatedtothenetworkaredescribedintheleakeddocuments.Theyarecomplex.Paymentsare
disguisedinvariousways.Onpaper,sharesincompaniesareswappedbackandforthinaday.Documentsarebackdated.
Questionablefinancialpenaltiesareassessed.Therightstomultimillion-dollarloansaresoldbetweenoffshorecompaniesfor$1.

Inalmosteveryinstance,theresultisthesame:moneyandpowermovesinthedirectionofthenetwork,tocompaniesand
peoplealliedtoPutin.

TheleakeddocumentscomefromthefilesofMossackFonseca,aPanama-basedlawfirmthatregisteredsomeoftheRoldugin
companiesandhelpedadministerthenetworksholdingsintheBritishVirginIslandsandotheroffshorehavens.

ForyearstherehavebeenreportsmainlyfromwhistleblowersaboutPutinssecretwealth.Yetadetailedpictureofthe
hiddenfinancialaffairsofPutinscirclehasremainedelusive.

Loyaltyandlong-heldrelationshipshelpbindthenetworktogether.ItsafraternityofPutinconfidants.

Watch|Explained:WhatDoThePanamaPapersReveal

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=faLUjfFmFe8&w=640&h=390]

ThereisRoldugin,whoisgodfathertoPutinseldestdaughter.ThenthereisYuryKovalchuk,abankerwhoforgedlinkswiththe
futurepresidentwhenPutinwasamunicipalofficial,andArkadyRotenberg,achildhoodchumwhohasbecomeabillionaire
throughstate-sponsoredconstructionprojects,oilpipelinesandotherventures.

Manyofthemenlinkedtothenetwork,includingPutin,sharesomethingelseincommonbesideshistory.Theyareconnectedto
theStPetersburg-basedBankRossiya,whichtheUSgovernmenthasidentifiedasPutinspersonalcashbox.

TheeconomicmodelforhowmembersofPutinscirclehavesharedtheprofitsfromthisnetworkwasalsoestablishedbackinSt
Petersburg.Inthe1990s,PutinandBankRossiyaownerscreatedacooperativeforagatedcommunitywheretheyallhad
houses.Thecooperativekeptabankaccountincommon.Eachcouldputmoneyin,andanyonecouldtakeitout.

NowhereintheMossackFonsecafilesisthenameoftheRussianpresident,aformerKGBspymaster,actuallymentioned.
AudiorecordingsandwitnessaccountsshowthatevenwhenPutinsclosestconfidantsprivatelydiscusshisfinancialdealings,
theyusepseudonymsforhimorsimplygesturetotheheavensratherthanutterhisname.

AfterreceivingdetailedquestionsfromICIJanditsmediapartners,KremlinspokesmanDmitryPeskovdenouncedthe
forthcomingarticlesinapressconferenceasanattackandaseriesoffibs,accordingtoRussiannewsservices.

Tiesoffriendship

ThereisavideoonYouTubeofArkadyRotenberg,aformerjudoinstructorwhobecameabillionairethankstoPutin.Heis
standingwithagroupofmen.Putinwalkspast,flankedbyhissecuritydetail.Rotenbergdoesntseehimcoming.Without
breakingstride,PutinrubsRotenbergshead,mussinghishair,likeonewouldadogorachild.

Ofallthoseinhisinnercircle,ArkadyandhisbrotherBorisRotenberghaveknownPutinthelongest.Theirfriendshipdatesto
the1960s,whenasboystheysparredtogetherinamartialartsclub.

TheEuropeanUnionandtheUSgovernmentissuedsanctionsagainstArkadyRotenbergin2014,inretaliationforPutins
invasionofUkraine.

TheUSalsosanctionedhisbrotherBoris.TheUSTreasurynotedthetwohadamassedenormousamountsofwealthduringthe
yearsofPutinsrulefromRussiangovernmentcontracts,includingroughly$7billionfortheSochiOlympicgames.

ArkadyRotenbergdidnotrespondtoarequestforcomment.

WhenitcomestoSergeyRoldugin,thedocumentsinthefilesfalselystatethatheisnotpoliticallyconnected,obscuringthe
musiciansroleinthescheme.

TheresnoquestionthatRolduginandPutinareclose.SomepublicationshavecalledhimPutinsbestfriend.Intheearly1980s,
RolduginarrangedadoubledateonwhichPutinmethisfuturewife,Lyudmila.PutinselectedRoldugintobethegodfatherofhis
firstchild,Maria,asacredroleinRussianOrthodoxtradition.AphotoofPutincradlingMaria,besidehiswifeandRoldugincan
bereadilyfoundontheInternet.

BanksarerequiredbylawinSwitzerlandtodetermineifaccountholdersareconnectedtopoliticianstosafeguardagainst
improperuseoftheaccount.Theindustrytermforthisispoliticallyexposedpersons,orPEPs.

TheMossackFonsecafilescontainanapplicationbyGazprombankSwitzerlandin2014toopenabankaccountforacompany
inRolduginsname.TheformexplicitlyaskedwhethertheownerofthecompanyhadanyrelationtoPEPsorVIPs.The
answer:no.

Gazprombankdeclinedtocomment.

LakeofMoney

YuryKovalchukandPutinturnedtheirattentiontoBankRossiyain1991.Atthattime,Putinwasdeputymayorandtheperson
responsibleforattractingforeigninvestorsandformingpublic-privatepartnerships.AfterthefalloftheSovietUnioninDecember
1991,PutinsignedthedocumentsbestowingownershipofthebankonanewlyformedjointventurecreatedbyKovalchukand
others,accordingtoDawisha,authorofPutinsKleptocracy:WhoOwnsRussia?

KovalchukbecamemajorityshareholderandboardchairofthisnewversionofBankRossiya.WhentheUSgovernment
sanctionedhimin2014,itdescribedKovalchukasoneofPutinscashiers.

Inthemid-1990s,Kovalchukandafewothershareholdersofthebankowneddachasontheeasternshoreofthe
KomsomolskoyeLake.Putinfoundthemoneytobuyaproperty.Themenformedaco-operativesocietytobenefittheeight
residentsoftheirsharedgatedcommunity,whichwascalledOzero(theLake).TheMossackFonsecafilesshowthatthe
communalprinciplesthatdefinedOzerocontinuedwithBankRossiyaanditsparticipantsmorethanadecadelater.

Kovalchuk,throughalawyer,declinedtorespondtodetailedquestions.BankRossiyadidnotrespondtodetailedquestions
aboutitsrole.

Hiddendeals

InSeptember2009,aMossackFonsecacomplianceofficerflaggedatransactionfor$103millioninvolvingacompanycalled
SandalwoodContinentalLimited.ThemanagerforBankRossiyathatwasarrangingthetransactionwantedMossackFonsecas
directorstoapproveitbutitssizeseemedworrisome.

SandalwoodwasthelynchpinoftheentirePutin-linkednetwork.OneofSandalwoodsrolesappearedtobetoborrow$103
millionfromtheRussianCommercialBank(RCB)inCyprus,whichinturnwasbackedbyMoscow-based,state-controlled
bank,VTB.

TheowneronpaperofSandalwoodwasOlegGordin,asmallbusinessmanwithabackgroundinlawenforcementagencies.

Gordindidnotrespondtoarequestforcomment.

Between2009and2012,SandalwoodhadlinesofcreditwithRCBforabout$800million,accordingtothefiles.In2009,
Sandalwoodloanedoutabout$600millionandatleast$350millionin2010.

TheloansRCBmadetoSandalwoodwerehighlyunusual.Theywenttoaborrowerwhohadnodiscerniblebusinessmodel,and
theycarriednosecurity.Mostreliedonapromisethattheentireamountwouldbereturnedafteracertaintimespan.

RCBsMaratheftissaidthebankwasalwaysinfullcompliancewiththeAnti-MoneyLaunderingRegulatoryFramework.
AccordingtoananalysisoftheMossackFonsecadatabyICIJanditsreportingpartners,about$2billionpassedthroughthe
networkbetween2008and2013,mostofitthroughSandalwoodContinental.

Costofsecrets

In2014,MikhailLesin,wasintimatelyinvolvedintheeffortsofPutinandBankRossiyatocontrolRussianmedia,resignedfrom
Gazprom-Media.HewasPutinsfirstmediaminister,thenapresidentialadviserinhissecondtermandheoversawtheregimes
propagandapush.RussianpressreportsblamedaconflictbetweenhimandBankRossiyasKovalchuk.Lesinrelocatedto
America,whereheallegedlyownedmillionsofdollarsinproperty.

InNovember2015,RussianmediareportedthatLesindiedofaheartattackinahotelinWashington,DC.Fourmonthslater,
WashingtonschiefmedicalexaminersaidLesindiedofbluntforcetraumatotheheadandhadbruisesonhisneck,torsoand
limbs.Policeareinvestigatingthedeath.

HowmanysecretsofthePutin-linkednetworkMikhailLesintooktothegravemayneverbeknown.

Watch|KarnaltoLondonviaBahamas,TheRouteIndiabullsPromoterTook

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lBYCgJiSy1Y&w=640&h=390]

SentfrommyiPad
 From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 01/18/201604:05:50AM
To: RobertNurick<nurickrc@yahoo.com>
Subject: WalterRussellMead--AndrewJackson,Revenant-TheAmericanInterest

http://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/01/17/andrew-jackson-revenant/

AndrewJackson,Revenant
NotsincehefoughtwithNicholasBiddleoverthefutureoftheBankoftheUnitedStateshasAndrewJacksonbeenthis
controversialorthiscentralinAmericanpoliticallife.Jacksonianpopulism,thesenseofhonor-drivenegalitarianismand
fierynationalismthatdroveAmericanpoliticsformanyyears,hasneverbeenhatedandreviledasoftenasitistoday,and
manyAmericanacademicsandintellectuals(tosaynothingofHollywoodicons)areclosetodemandingthatJacksonian
sentimentberedefinedasahatecrime.

ForPresidentBarackObamaandhispoliticalalliesinparticular,JacksonianAmericaisthefatherofallevils.Jacksonians
arewhothethenSenatorhadinmindwhen,inthecampaignof2008,hespokeofthebitterclingersholdingontotheir
gunsandtheirBibles.Theyarethesourceoftheforeignpolicyinstinctshemostdeplores,supportingIsraelalmost
reflexively,demandingoverwhelmingresponsetoterrorattacks,agitatingfortightimmigrationcontrols,resistingdiplomacy
withIranandNorthKorea,supportingGuantanamo,cynicalabouttheUN,skepticalofclimatechange,andwillingtouse
enhancedinterrogationagainstterroristsinarmsagainsttheUnitedStates.

Hehatestheirinstinctsathome,too.ItisJacksonianswho,asIwroteinSpecialProvidencebackin2001,seetheSecond
AmendmentasthefoundationofandsecurityforAmericanfreedom.ItisJacksonianswhomostresentillegalimmigration,
dontwanttosubsidizetheurbanpoor,supportaggressivepolicingandlongprisonsentencesforviolentoffendersandwho
aretheslowesttoevolveonissueslikegaymarriageandtransgenderrights.

Thehateandthedisdaindontspringfromanythingastrivialaspique.Historically,JacksonianAmericahasbeentheenemy
ofmanyofwhatPresidentObama,rightly,seesassomeofAmericasmostimportantadvances.Jacksoniansentiment
embracesaconceptoftheUnitedStatesasafolkcommunityand,overtime,thatfolkcommunitywasgenerallyconstrued
aswhitesonly.LynchlawandJimCrowweremanifestationsofJacksoniancommunalism,andtherearefewexamplesof
race,religiousorethnicprejudiceinwhichJacksonianAmericahasntindulged.Jacksonianshavecomealongwayon
race,buttheywillnevermovefarenoughandfastenoughforliberalopinionliberalsaremovingtoo,andarebecoming
angrierandmoreexactingregardlessofJacksonianprogress.

Justasbad,intheviewofthePresidentandhisallies,Jacksoniansdonthavemuchrespectfortheeducatedandthe
credentialed.LikeWilliamF.Buckley,theywouldratherbegovernedbythefirst100namesinthephonebookthanbythe
Harvardfaculty.Theyloathetheinterferingbusybodiesoftheprogressivestate,believethatgovernment(exceptforthe
policeandthemilitary)isanecessaryevil,thinkmostexpertsanduniversityprofessorsarenosmarterorwiserthanother
people.andfeelonlycontemptforthegendertheoristsandthesocialjusticewarriorsofthecontemporaryclassroom.

VirtuallyeverythingaboutprogressivepoliticstodayisaboutliquidatingtheJacksonianinfluenceinAmericanlife.From
immigrationpolicy,toutedasendingtheerawhenAmericanwhiteswerethepopulationoftheUnitedStates,togunpolicy
andtoregulatorypolicy,PresidentObamaandhiscoalitionaimtocrushwhatJacksonianslove,empowerwhattheyfear,
andexaltwhattheyhate.

JacksonianAmericaismanythingswellorganizedisntoneofthem.Jacksoniansarefoundinbothpoliticalpartiesmost
arehabituallyindifferenttonationalpolitics,seeingallpoliticiansasequallycorrupt,equallyuseless.OtherthantheNRA,
therearenotmanynationalorganizationsorganizedaroundthepromotionofaJacksonianagenda.Intheworldofthink
tanksandelitemedia,theJacksonianvoiceisseldomheardandneverheeded.

ItishardforJacksonianstomobilizepolitically.NeitherpartyreallyembracesaJacksonianagenda.Combiningasuspicion
ofWallStreet,ahatredoftheculturalleft,aloveofmiddleclassentitlementprograms,andafearoffreetrade,Jacksonian
AmericahasproblemswithbothRepublicanandDemocraticagendas.AnyJacksonianpoliticalmovementwillstartasa
partyinsurgency,andtheJacksonianswillonthewholebelesswellfunded,lessexperiencedandlessinstitutionally
powerfulthantheirpartyopponents.Jacksoniansareneitherliberalnorconservativeinthewaysthatpoliticalelitesuse
thosetermstheyareradicallyegalitarian,radicallypro-middleclass,radicallypatriotic,radicallypro-SocialSecurity.They
arenot,undernormalcircumstances,joinersinpoliticstheyareindividualistswhoorganizeinresponsetothreats,andtheir
individualismgoestotheirstandsonwhatoutsiderssometimesthinkarethesocialissuesthatunitethem.
ManyJacksonians,forexample,arenotevangelicalsandnotevenChristianatall.Whilesomearestronglyanti-abortion,
othersbelievethatindividualfreedommakesabortionnobodysbusinessbuttheirown.Somestandstronglybehindthedrug
warmanyindulgeinrecreationaldrugsandsomeJacksoniansgrowormanufacturethem,muchlikethemoonshinerswho
havebeenevadingrevenuerssincetheWashingtonadministration.

TheresanotherobstacleinthefaceofaJacksonianrising:JacksonianshavebeenhardhitbythechangesintheAmerican
economy.Thesecureworkingclasswagesthatunderpinnedtwogenerationsofrisingaffluenceforthewhite(and
minority)industrialworkingclasshavedisappeared.ThatisntjustaboutmoneythecoherenceofJacksoniancommunities
andfamilylifehasbeenseriouslyimpaired.ThesearethepointsCharlesMurraymakesinhisharrowingComingApart:The
StateofWhiteAmerica,1960-2010theyhavebeenrecentlyreinforcedbystudiesdocumentingaholocaustoflowerand
lowermiddleclasswhites.

Thesedevastatingchanges,utterlyignoredbyanuppermiddleclassintellectualandculturalestablishmentthatnotso
secretlyhopesforademographicchangeinAmericathatwillfinallymarginalizeuncredentialedwhitepeopleonceandfor
all,makeJacksoniansangryandfrustrated,buttheyalsomakeithardertodevelopanorganizedpoliticalstrategyin
responsetosomeoftheworstandmostdangerousconditionsfacedbyanymajorAmericandemographicgrouptoday.
Stronginnumbers(thoughnotamajority),awakeningtoanewsenseofangerandendangerment,Jacksoniansarestill
gropingforamovementandaprogram.

WhatweareseeinginAmericanpoliticstodayisaJacksoniansurge.ItisnotyetarevolutiononthescaleofOldHickorys
movementthattransformedAmericanpoliticsforageneration.SucharevolutionmaynotbepossibleintodaysAmerica,
andinanycasethecurrentwaveofJacksonianactivismandconsciousnessisstillinanearlyandsomewhatincoherent
phase.Inthepast,moderateleadersonthecenterleftandcenterrightalikehavefoundwaystocaptureJacksonianenergy.
FDRwasabletostealthedemagogicenergyofHueyLongRichardNixonmarginalizedGeorgeWallaceevenashe
respondedtosomeofWallacesconcernsaboutbussingandcrime.(Hedidnot,however,givewaytoWallaceonthecore
issueofracialequality.)

DonaldTrump,fornow,isservingasakindofblankscreenonwhichJacksoniansprojecttheirhopes.Proposinghimself
asastrongleaderwhogetsAmericabutisaboveparty,TrumpappealstoJacksonianideasaboutleadership.Trumps
JacksonianappealhaslefttheRepublicanPartyindeepdisarray,demonstratingthegulfbetweencontemporaryconservative
ideologyandJacksoniannationalism.Indeed,oneofthereasonsthatTrumphasntbeenhurtbyattacksthathighlighthis
lackoflongtermcommitmenttotheboilerplateconservativeagenda(eitherinthesocialoreconomicconservativevariant)
isthatJacksonianvotersarelessdogmaticandlessconservativethansomeoftheirwould-bepoliticalrepresentativescare
toacknowledge.JacksonianslikeSocialSecurityandMedicaremuchmorethanmostRepublicanintellectuals,andtheylike
immigrationandfreetrademuchless.

WhateverhappenstotheTrumpcandidacy,itnowseemsclearthatJacksonianAmericaisrousingitselftofightforits
identity,itscultureanditsprimacyinacountrythatitbelievesitshouldown.Itsculturalvalueshavebeentraduced,its
economicinterestsdisregarded,anditsfutureasthecenterofgravityofAmericanpoliticallifeisunderattack.Overseas,it
seestraditionalrivalslikeRussia,China,NorthKoreaandIranmakingheadwayagainstaPresidentthatitdistrustsmore
troublingstill,inISISandjihaditerroritseestherapidspreadofamovementaimingatthemassmurderofAmericans.
JacksonianAmericahaslostallconfidenceinthewillortheabilityofthepoliticalestablishmenttofightthethreatsitsees
abroadandathome.Itwantswhatithasalwayswanted:totakeitsfutureintoitsownhands.

ThebiggeststoryinAmericanpoliticstodayisthis:AndrewJacksonismadashell,andhesnotgoingtotakeitanymore.

 From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 02/06/201611:15:32AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:A/BT'MUSTREAD':Ukraine&TUNISIA(asstrategiclynchpins).....[WDOHBOY!!!PARADE]RussiaConsidersArmsControlIn
Subject:
EuropeTreatyOutdatedNP/MC:Russia's(Lavrov's)BaldfacedLiesPopetoMeetwithROC'sKirillinCuba.......[YB]G.Weigel&t
Attachments: SheptytskyInstituteStatementreMeetingofPopeFrancisandPatriarchKirillinCubaonFeb12.pdf

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Friday,February05,20167:35PM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:A/BT'MUSTREAD':Ukraine&TUNISIA(asstrategiclynchpins).....[WDOHBOY!!!PARADE]RussiaConsidersArmsControlIn
EuropeTreatyOutdatedNP/MC:Russia's(Lavrov's)BaldfacedLiesPopetoMeetwithROC'sKirillinCuba.......[YB]G.Weigel&th...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:Taylor,William<wtaylor@usip.org>
Date:Fri,Feb5,2016at5:23PM
Subject:UkraineandTunisia
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://thehill.com/blogs/congressblog/foreignpolicy/268239tunisiaandukrainelinchpinsofusinterests

ebruary05,2016,08:00am

TunisiaandUkraine:LinchpinsofU.S.
interests
ByKristinM.LordandWilliamB.Taylor

3
24
TheObamaadministrationsannouncementthisweekthatitplanstoquadruplemilitaryresourcesdevotedtodeterring
RussiainEuropehighlightshowseriouslyU.S.andNATOleadersviewthethreatposedbyRussia.Ukraineis
strugglingtosaveitsyoungdemocracyandstaveoffpublicdisaffectionwiththenewgovernmentsvaliantbuthalting
reforms,evenasRussiacontinuesitscampaignofmilitaryandeconomicgoading.

SouthacrosstheBlackandMediterraneanSeas,TunisiaisexperiencingsomeofitsworstsocialunrestsincetheArab
Springrevolutionsof2011,illustratingthevulnerabilityoftheonlycountrytopushthroughthetransitionwithoutcivilwaror
areturntodictatorship.U.S.leadersareconcernedaboutthethreatposedbyISISextremiststhereandacrossthe
broaderregion.AsinEurope,theyarereportedlypreparingnewmilitaryoptionstoaddressthethreatinbothSyriaand
Libya.

FormanyAmericans,andlikelysomeU.S.policymakers,UkraineandTunisiawithpopulationsofjust45
ADVERTISEMENT millionand10millionrespectively--mayjustlookliketwomoreproblemsinashockinglylonglistof
foreignpolicychallengesaroundtheglobe.Suchanassessmentwouldbeacrucialandpossibly
irreversibleerror,withconsequencesthatcouldcascadeacrosswholeregionsandreverberatefor
decades.UkraineandTunisiaoffercrucialopportunitiesforAmericaanditsalliestoadvancetheirstrategicinterestsand
potentiallytransformtodaysdangeroussecurityenvironmentatatimewhenU.S.national-securitypolicyresemblesan
endlessanddangerousgameofgeopoliticalwhack-a-mole.
Bothcountriesarestrategiclinchpins.BothcountriesmeritU.S.backingthatincludes--butalsoextendsfarbeyond--
militarysupport.

Ukraineboastsafreelyandfairlyelectedgovernmentinaregionbesetbydemocraticreversal.Apeople-powered
revolution,whichtragicallyledtobloodshedonKyivscentralsquare,usheredinanewreformgovernmentthatis
strugglingtoadvancefragiledemocraticreforms,jump-startateeteringeconomy,andrepelRussianandRussian-
backedforcesthathaveinvadedandoccupypartsofthecountry.

TunisiaistheMiddleEastsonlyArabdemocracy.Italsohasafreelyandfairlyelectedgovernmentthatisstruggling
againstradicalextremistswhoareintentonderailingit.Tunisiaisalsohometofourcivilsocietyorganizationsthatwon
the2015NobelPeacePrizefortheirsuccessinpromotingapeacefulpoliticaltransition.

ThesuccessofthesetwocountrieswoulddofarmoretothwartRussianeffortstodestabilizelargeareasofEurasiaor
counterthreatsposedbyIslamistextremistorganizationslikeISISthananyanti-propagandainitiativeoranybombing
campaigninSyria.AndthecostislikelytodemonstrateafarbetterreturnoninvestmentforU.S.taxpayersthanbillions
ofdollarsspentonmoretacticalresponses.ItwouldhelpAmericareasserttheimportanceofuniversalvalueswehold
dear,notjustforourselvesbutforallthosewillingtostriveforthem.

DuringtheColdWar,Americanstrategistsunderstoodthatshoringupalliesandensuringthevitalityoffree-market
democracieswasatleastasimportantasdefendingagainstColdWarmilitaryprovocations.Americanpresidentsfrom
TrumantoReaganworkedtouniteEuropeanddrawnewlydecolonizedstatesinEurope,Asia,AfricaandLatinAmerica
towarddemocraticgovernanceandfree-marketeconomiesthroughthepowerofattraction.Thesuccessofcountrieslike
thesecontributedatleastasmuchtotheIronCurtainscollapseasU.S.militarymightandneitherwouldhavebeen
successfulwithouttheother.

Thisapproachisneedednow,atatimewhensuccessinUkraineandTunisiaisstillpossiblebuthardlyassured.The
strategicandmoralconsequencesoftheirfailureswouldbeenormous.

AfailedUkrainewouldnotonlydishonorthesacrificesofthosewhodiedontheMaidanandtheeffortsofreformerswho
arefightingcorruption.ItwouldbeaclearsigntocountriesacrossEasternEurope,theCaucususandCentralAsiathat
Russianinterventioncannotbedeterredandthateffortstoadvancedemocracyandparticipateintheinternational
economyareunlikelytopayoff.

AfailedTunisiawouldnotonlybeatragedyforTunisianswholedtheArabSpringandunitedtotransformtheirsociety
peacefully.ItwouldbeanunparalleledvictoryforISISandotherextremistmovementsalreadyrecruitingheavilyin
Tunisia--aswellasablowtoallthosewithintheregionwhowishtoestablishjust,representativegovernments.

BothcountriesneedU.S.andEuropeanassistanceurgentlytoconsolidatetheirrespectivetransitionsandmeet
legitimatecitizendemands.Thisshouldinclude:

Financialassistancetoshoreupstrugglingeconomies

Securityassistancetohelplegitimatearmedforcesrepelunlawfulanddestabilizingattackswithintheirborders

Governanceassistance,particularlytofightcorruptionandengagepopulationsrapidlysouringonreformacross
thesediversecountriesand

Supportforvocationaleducation,entrepreneurship,scholarshipsandeducationalexchangestoproductively
engagelargeyouthpopulations.

Tobesure,bothgovernmentshaveweaknesses,includingcorruption,internalpoliticalsquabbles,andlackof
accountability.TheabruptdepartureofyetanotherUkrainianreformministeriscauseforparticularconcern.Butboth
governmentsarecommittedtoreformandthevaluesofparticipatorygovernance,civicrightsandruleoflawinregions
whereallareundersiege.Theirnewlyempoweredcitizensaredemandingchangeandreform-ledgrowth.

AU.S.foreignpolicythatprioritizesUkraineandTunisiaisastrategicvisionwiththepotentialtotransform,notjust
respondto,athreateningglobalsecurityenvironment.ItisavisionbothDemocratsandRepublicanshavereasonto
support.

LordispresidentandCEOofIREX,aglobaleducationanddevelopmentorganizationthatworksinbothTunisiaand
Ukraine.TayloristheexecutivevicepresidentoftheU.S.InstituteofPeace,aformerU.S.ambassadortoUkraine,and
formerspecialcoordinatorforMiddleEastTransitions

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Fri,Feb5,2016at11:53AM
Subject:RussiaConsidersPrinciplesOfArmsControlInEuropeTreatyOutdated.......treatyjustascrapofpaperlike
theBudapestMemorandum[ED:OHBOY!!]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,MykolaHryckowian
<mykcusur@gmail.com>,azglobal<azgre@azgre.ca>,AndyHolowaty<andycando@mac.com>,walter.derzko@utoronto.ca

RussiaConsidersPrinciplesOfArmsControlIn
EuropeTreatyOutdated
February05,2016

http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-says-arms-treaty-outdated/27534336.html\

R ussiasaysitisnotpracticaltocommititselftostrongercontroloverconventionalweaponsinEuropewhileNATO
increasesitsactivitiesintheregion.

RussianDeputyDefenseMinisterAnatolyAntonovtoldreportersinMoscowonFebruary5that,iftalkstoupdatethe2011
ViennatreatyontheconventionalarmscontrolinEuroperesume,theprinciplesofthiscontrolmechanismshouldbe
differentfromthoseusedintheColdWar-era.

"Thelistofstrategicsystemsisbroadeningasmodernconventionalweaponsarecomparablewithnuclearweaponsand
thereforejustcountingcannonsandtanksisnotenough,"Antonovsaid.

AccordingtotheViennatreaty,theRussianDefenseMinistryandNATOexchangeinspectorstoregulatemilitaryfacilities
andshareinformationonmilitaryactivitiesinEurope.

Moscow-NATOrelationsareattheirlowestsincetheendofColdWarafterRussia'sannexationofCrimeafromUkraine
in2014andamidtheWest'saccusationsthattheKremlinissupportingpro-RussiaseparatistsineasternUkraine.

BasedonreportingbyTASS,ReutersandInterfax

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Fri,Feb5,2016at1:59PM
Subject:MichaelColborne:Russia'sbald-facedlies>NationalPost>Toronto[OHBOY!!OHBOY!!]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,walter.derzko@utoronto.ca,
MykolaHryckowian<mykcusur@gmail.com>,bohdan.rn@gmail.com,azglobal<azgre@azgre.ca>,AndyHolowaty
<andycando@mac.com>

MichaelColborne:Russiasbald-facedlies
MichaelColborne,NationalPost|February4,2016|LastUpdated:Feb46:28AMET
http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/michael-colborne-russias-bald-faced-lies
REUTERS/DenisSinyakovRussia'sForeignMinisterSergeiLavrov.

Wecancomplainallwewantaboutlyingpoliticiansinourowncountry,butlastweekRussian
ForeignMinisterSergeiLavrovsteppedupandshowedushowitsreallydone:withoutbatting
aneye,hetoldapressconferencethatRussiahadneverviolatedthe1994Budapest
Memorandum,theagreementthatguaranteedUkrainesterritorialintegrity(including
Crimea)inexchangeforUkrainegivingupitsnuclearweapons.

IfyouretalkingabouttheBudapestMemorandum,wehavenotviolatedit,hetoldajournalist.Itcontains
onlyoneobligationnottousenuclearweaponsagainstUkraine.

Theresafewbigproblemswiththatstatement,leastofwhichisthefactthatthereareactuallysixobligations
intheBudapestMemorandum,andthefirstofthemistorespecttheindependenceandsovereigntyandthe
existingbordersofUkraine.

EvenworsewastheRussianembassyintheU.K.sham-handedattempttobroadcastLavrovsboldnew
interpretationonTwitter.ItprovidedalinktothetextoftheBudapestMemorandumitselfwithallsix
obligations,includingtheonesRussiahasclearlyviolatedrightthereforeveryonetosee.

KeepinmindthatLavrovwasntjustRussiasambassadortotheUNbackin1994heactuallysignedthe
originalBudapestMemorandum.Hehasntbeenforeignministerfor12yearsbecausehesanidiot.Hewas
lying,heknewhewaslyingandhekneweveryoneknewhewaslyingandhedidntcare.

InthewordsofAmericandiplomatStevenPifer,whohelpednegotiatetheBudapestMemorandum,whatdoes
itsayaboutthemendacityofRussiandiplomacyanditscontemptforinternationalopinionwhentheforeign
ministersayssomethingthatcanbeprovenwrongwithlessthan30secondsofGooglefact-checking?

Theanswer:itsaysthat,whenitcomestotheKremlin,weredealingwithawayoflyingwerenotusedto
seeing.Itsablack-knight-from-Monty-Python-esquestyleoflyingthatmakesdealingwithPutinand
companyonissueslikeUkraineandSyriasuchanightmare.

Yes,ourpoliticianslie,buttheytendtobeabitmorecraftyaboutit.Theyliebyomission:theyllanswerpart
ofaquestiontheyllfudgeanumberorbaseafigureonsomethingthatdoesntmakeanysense.Ourpoliticians
dontoftenstandupandtellussomethingweallknowisatotallie.

Why?Because,believeitornot,ourpoliticiansactuallyhavesomerespectforus.Theyknowwecangoonline
andchecktheveracityofsomethingbeforetheyveevenfinishedtheirspeech.Theyknowwehaveamedia
that,forallitsfaults,willgleefullycallthemoutonit.Whentheylie,theywantusalltobelieveit.

ItdoesntmatterifyouactuallycutPutinsarmoff.Hedoesntcarethatyoucanseeitrightthereonthe
ground

Russianpoliticians,ontheotherhand,arentinterestedinconceptslikerespectorbelievability.Itdoesnt
matterifyouactuallycutPutinsarmoff.Hedoesntcarethatyoucanseeitrightthereontheground.Tis
butascratch,hellsay.Hewontbudge.Andhellinsistitsafleshwounduntil,likehisadmissionofRussian
soldiersinCrimea,hequietlyadmitsthat,yeah,youdidactuallycutitoff.Butthenhellgoonestepfurtherand
denyeverdenyingthatyoucutitoff.

ItsakindofmentalgymnasticsthatdrivesRussia-watcherslikemeupthewall,anditextendstoRussias
echo-chamberstatemedia.RussiasChannelOnefabricatedanow-infamousstoryofayoungboyapparently
beingcrucifiedonabulletinboardinatownsquarebytheUkrainianarmy.TheyalsotoldGermanyslarge
Russian-speakingdiasporathatayoungRussian-GermangirlwaskidnappedandrapedbymigrantsinBerlin,
eventhoughitssincecomeoutthatshewashidingfromherparents.TheTVstationZvezdahasevenmadeup
quotesfromWesternjournaliststolendcredibilitytofakepro-Kremlinstories.

Itshardforustograsptheridiculousnessofallthis,butthatsbecausetheseliesreallyarentdesignedto
convinceanyone.IftheseliesconvincejustafewnuttersorpopulistpoliticiansinEuropetomouthoffandshift
thedebateMoscowsway,thentheyvesucceeded.ButasweintheWestfinallybegintopaymoreattentionto
theKremlinsantics,werestartingtocatchon.

NationalPost

MichaelColborneisaCanadianjournalistandwriter.

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/michael-colborne-russias-bald-faced-lies

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Fri,Feb5,2016at11:48AM
Subject:PopeFrancistoMeetPatriarchKirillinCuba[OHBOY!!OHBOY!!OHBOY!!]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,MykolaHryckowian
<mykcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>,AndyHolowaty<andycando@mac.com>,azglobal
<azgre@azgre.ca>

PopeFrancistoMeetPatriarchKirillin
Cuba
http://www.ncregister.com/blog/edward-pentin/pope-francis-to-meet-patriarch-kirill-in-
cuba/#ixzz3zJ54NEFB

byEdwardPentin02/05/2016

Afteryearsofspeculation,forthefirsttimeinhistorytheSuccessorofPeterandthePatriarchoftheRussian
OrthodoxChurchwillmeetonFebruary12,theVaticanannouncedtoday.

ThemeetingwilltakeplaceinCubawherePatriarchKirillwillbemakinganofficialvisit.PopeFranciswillmakea
briefstopinHavanaonhiswaytoMexico.

TheVaticansaidthehistoricmeeting"willmarkanimportantstageinrelationsbetweenthetwoChurches."

VaticanspokesmanFatherFedericoLombardisaidthemeeting,expectedtolasttwohoursintotal,willconsistof
spontaneousspeechesfromthePopeandthePatriarchwhowillalsoissueajointdeclaration.Headdedthatthe
meeting,whichwasalwaystotakeplaceonneutralground,isthefruitoftwoyearsoftalks.

Herebelowisthefulltextofthepressrelease:

JointPressReleaseoftheHolySeeandofthePatriarchateofMoscow

TheHolySeeandthePatriarchateofMoscowarepleasedtoannouncethat,bythegraceofGod,HisHolinessPope
FrancisandHisHolinessPatriarchKirillofMoscowandAllRussiawillmeetonFebruary12next.Theirmeetingwilltake
placeinCuba,wherethePopewillmakeastoponhiswaytoMexico,andwherethePatriarchwillbeonanofficial
visit.ItwillincludeapersonalconversationatHavanasJosMartInternationalAirport,andwillconcludewiththe
signingofajointdeclaration.

ThismeetingofthePrimatesoftheCatholicChurchandtheRussianOrthodoxChurch,afteralongpreparation,will
bethefirstinhistoryandwillmarkanimportantstageinrelationsbetweenthetwoChurches.TheHolySeeandthe
MoscowPatriarchatehopethatitwillalsobeasignofhopeforallpeopleofgoodwill.TheyinviteallChristiansto
prayferventlyforGodtoblessthismeeting,thatitmaybeargoodfruits.

Readmore:http://www.ncregister.com/blog/edward-pentin/pope-francis-to-meet-patriarch-
kirill-in-cuba/#ixzz3zJSQAILK

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:YuriS.Broda<yuribroda@gmail.com>
Date:Fri,Feb5,2016at5:55PM
Subject:Fwd:PLEASECIRCULATE-StatementoftheSheptytskyInstituteregardingPopeFrancis'smeetingwithPatriarchof
Moscow
To:Mama<lidiawasylyn@gmail.com>,TarasPodilsky<bulba@telusplanet.net>,WalterZaryckyj
<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

Thoughtyoumightfindtheattachedinteresting,regardingthePope'smeetingwithPatriarchKirillinCuba.WAZ,Ithinkthiswould
beveryinterestingtosendouttotheBCCchain,giventhatPatr.KirillisnothingmorethanatooloftheRussianstatesecurity
apparatus!

Relatedtothat,GeorgeWeigelhadafascinatingarticleonthisaswell.http://www.nationalreview.com/node/430858/print

PopeFrancisandtheRussianPatriarchWillMeet,asUkrainian
CatholicsWatchandWait
ByGeorgeWeigelFebruary5,2016

TheannouncementthatPopeFranciswillmeetwithKirill,RussianOrthodoxpatriarchofMoscow,inCuba
onFebruary12is,paradoxically,bothaBigDealandsomethingthatoughttohavebecomeroutinebynow.
Itsabigdeal,inthattheBishopofRomehasnevermetbeforewiththeleaderofRussianOrthodoxy(who,
likehispredecessors,thinksofhimselfasthepatriarchoftheThirdRome).Atthesametime,thisfirst
meetingshouldhavehappenedlongago,suchthatmeetingsbetweenthepopeandtheRussianpatriarch
wouldberoutine:importantbutregularexchangesofviewsonquestionsofmutualinterest,likethosethe
poperegularlyconductswithotherChristianleaders.

WhyhasittakensolongforameetingbetweenthepopeandtheRussianOrthodoxpatriarchtotakeplace?
PopeshavemetregularlywithotherOrthodoxprelates,includingthefirst-among-equalsEcumenical
PatriarchofConstantinople,sincethemid-1960ssowhynotthepatriarchofMoscow?Thatstheessential,
firstquestiontobeexplored,inordertosettheFrancisKirillmeetinginproperperspective.Itsa
complicatedtale,fullofnobleintentions,navetandshrewdness,andlowpolitics.Yetunderstandingwhy
thisencounterhasbeensodifficulttoarrangeiscrucialforunderstandingthestakesinvolvedintheFebruary
12meetingandwhatfollowsfromit:forFrancisandhisrelationshipwithbothworldOrthodoxyandthe
EasternCatholicChurches(ByzantineinritualandgovernancebutinfullcommunionwithRome)forKirill,
hiscloserelationshipwithVladimirPutin,andRussianOrthodoxysquestforpreeminenceintheOrthodox
worldforUkraineforthefutureofthe21st-centurydialoguebetweenCatholicismandOrthodoxy
throughouttheworldandindeedforRussiaitself.

Soalookbackisthenecessaryprerequisitetolookingaheadwithaclear,realisticeye.

ROMEANDMOSCOW
Lenin,whofamouslysaidthattherecanbenothingmoreabominablethanreligion,dideverythinginhis
powertoextinguishtheflameofChristianfaithandtodestroyChristiancultureintheSovietUnionafterthe
BolshevikRevolutionof1917hiswife,Krupskaya,didherpartbyensuringthattheanti-religiousarticlesin
theSovietcriminalcodewereplacedbetweenthearticlesbanningprostitutionandpornography.Underthe
Bolsheviks,RussianOrthodoxybecameamartyrChurch,itsmagnificentstructuresdynamitedanditsclergy
murderedordispatchedtoanonymousdeathintheGulagallinthenameofcreatingHomosovieticus.
Duringthisperiodofconcentrated,CommunistassaultonChristiancommunities,allVaticanattemptsto
provideminimalpastoralcareforthesmallnumberofCatholicsinwhathadbecometheUSSRwere
rebuffedeffortstosendundergroundpriestsintotheUSSRtocareforCatholicsthereusuallyendedinthe
priestsmartyrdom.

ChangesintheofficialSovietattitudetowardRussianOrthodoxybeganintheweeksaftertheGerman
invasionofRussiainJune1941.AstheseeminglyinvincibleWehrmachtgrounditswaytowardMoscow,
Leninsheir,Stalin,firstfrozeinpsychicparalysisbeforereemergingtochristenthebattleagainstHitlerthe
GreatPatrioticWar:astruggleinwhichhewouldappealtoeverypossiblesourceoftraditionalRussian
patriotisminordertostemtheTeutoniconslaught.ThustheRussianOrthodoxChurchwasresurrectedfrom
beneaththeCommunistrubbleanddeployedtorallyRussiansupportforthedeathstrugglewiththeThird
Reich.ButhavingbroughtRussianOrthodoxybackintogovernmentalfavor,Stalin,aformerseminarian,
wasnotabouttolettheChurchofftheCommunistleash.Sotheleadershipofpost-warRussianOrthodoxy
becameanadjuncttotheSovietregime,inareturntoanationalpolitical-culturalpatternthathadbeen
establishedundertheczars.

OneofthefirstthingstheRussianOrthodoxleadershipdidintheimmediatepost-warperiodwastowork
closelywiththeNKVD,theStalinistsecretpolice,tostage-manageafakeChurchcouncil,the1946Lviv
Sobor,inSovietUkraine.There,thelargestoftheEasternCatholicChurches,theUkrainianGreekCatholic
Church[UGCC],abrogated(atgunpoint)the1596UnionofBrest,whichhadrestoredittofull
communionwithRome,andwastherebyreunitedwithRussianOrthodoxy.TheUGCCsbishopsand
thoseofitsclergywhorefusedtoaccepttheirreunionwithMoscowweremurderedorshippedofftothe
Gulag,wherethemajoritydiedtheUGCCsinstitutions(whichhadbeensafe-depositboxesofUkrainian
nationalidentityandaspiration)weredestroyedorturnedovertotheRussianOrthodoxandforthenext
fourandahalfdecades,theUGCCwasthelargestundergroundreligiousbodyintheworld,conducting
religiousservicesinforestsandeducatingitspriestsclandestinely.

PopeJohnXXIII,seekingtoopenaconversationthatwouldpermitRussianOrthodoxobserverstoattend
theSecondVaticanCouncil,receivedSovietpremierNikitaKhrushchevsson-in-lawinprivateaudience,
exchangedgreetingswithKhrushchevhimselfonthepopeseightiethbirthdayin1961,andendedtheanti-
CommunistrhetoricthathadcharacterizedVaticancommentaryonworldaffairsduringthepontificatesof
PiusXIandPiusXII.RussianOrthodoxobserverswereindeedallowedoutoftheUSSRandwerecordially
receivedatVaticanII(196265).ButtheirpresenceinRomealsomarkedthefirstwaveinwhatbecamea
determinedattemptbytheKGBtopenetratetheVaticanacampaignofinfiltrationandblackmailthat
intensified(andbecamemoresuccessful)inthepontificateofJohnXXIIIssuccessor,PaulVI,whothrough
hisOstpolitikreachedouttoCommunist-bloccountriesthroughouttheWarsawPact.

WhileVaticandiplomacywasseekinganewrelationshipwithWarsawPactstates,ontheassumptionthat
thesecountrieswouldremainunderCommunistcontrolwellintothe21stcentury,threedefaultpositions
werebeingsetattheVaticansecumenicalshop,thePontificalCouncilforPromotingChristianUnity:the
keytothequestforChristianunityistherelationshipbetweenCatholicismandOrthodoxythekeytothe
complexOrthodoxworldisRussianOrthodoxytherefore,everyeffortmustbebenttomaintaincordial
relationswiththeMoscowPatriarchate.

Thesethreedefaultsremaininplacetoday.TheyhelpexplainwhyVaticandiplomacyhasbeen,inthemain,
reticenttothepointofquiescenceaboutthereturntobrutalauthoritarianisminPutinsRussiaabout
RussiasillegalinvasionandannexationofCrimeaandaboutRussiasroleinthechronic,low-gradewarfare
intheDonbasregionofsouthernandeasternUkraine.ThesedefaultsalsohelpexplainwhytheVaticanhas
notreachedouttothelargestandliveliestofthefourcontendingOrthodoxjurisdictionsinUkraine,the
UkrainianOrthodoxChurchKyivanPatriarchate,fortheVaticaninsistsonmaintainingitslinkstothe
UkrainianjurisdictionlinkedtoRussia,theUkrainianOrthodoxChurchMoscowPatriarchate.

AndwhilePopeFrancishasassuredthebishopsoftheUkrainianGreekCatholicChurchofhissupportfor
theirindependenceandhisadmirationfortheirvitalroleinbuildingcivilsocietyinUkraine,thePontifical
CouncilforPromotingChristianUnityandintheVaticansSecretariatofStatetoooftenseemtoregardthe
UGCCasacomplicatingfactorinCatholicRussianOrthodoxrelations.Why?Tworeasonssuggest
themselves.First,theveryexistence,andindeedtheenormousreligiousandinstitutionalvitality,ofthe
UkrainianGreekCatholicChurchisalivingreminderofthewickednessoftheLvivSoborof1946and
RussianOrthodoxyscomplicityinthisactofrepression:andthatremindercomplicatesVaticanrelations
withtheRussianOrthodoxleadership,whichcontinuestoinsist,oftenquiteaggressively,thatwhatwasdone
in1946wasthereturnofawaywardchurchtotheOrthodoxfold.Andsecond,becausetheUGCC,which
hasworkedcooperativelywithseveraloftheOrthodoxjurisdictionsinUkrainesincetheMaidanrevolution
ofdignityin201314,challengestheMoscowPatriarchatesclaimtobethesole,legitimateexpressionof
ChristianityintheRusskiimir,theRussianworld,which,bythereckoningofbothPatriarchKirilland
PresidentPutin,includesUkraine.

Asithappens,MajorArchbishopSviatoslavShevchuk,theheadoftheUGCC,andBishopBorysGudziak,
whochairstheUGCCsexternal-affairsdepartment,welcometheFrancisKirillmeeting.Meetingsbetween
RomeandMoscowoughttoberoutine,BishopGudziaktoldme.BothheandMajorArchbishop
Shevchukwouldbedelighted,hesaid,ifthisfirstmeetingwouldleadtoaregularexchangebetweenthe
popeandthepatriarchofMoscow,ofthesortthattakesplacewithotherOrthodoxleaders.Butbothmen
arealsoquiteawarethat,amongthemanyreasonswhyRussianOrthodoxleadersrefusedtoinviteJohn
PaulIItoRussiawasthelatepopesstrongsupportfortheUGCCandhisvenerationforitsStalin-era
martyrs,bothofwhichwereexpressionsofJohnPaulscommitmenttoreligiousfreedom.Shevchukand
GudziakarealsofullyawarethattheMoscowPatriarchatehasbeenputtingintensepressureonthe
PontificalCouncilforChristianUnityandtheVaticanSecretariatofStatetotemperanyrobustVatican
commentaryonUkraine,soasnottocreatewhattheMoscowPatriarchatewouldregardasanobstacletoa
FrancisKirillmeeting,toanormalizedrelationshipbetweentheleadersofCatholicismandRussian
Orthodoxy,andtowhatthepatriarchatesforeignminister,MetropolitanHilarion,describesascommon
effortstohelppersecutedChristiansintheMiddleEast.

THESTAKESFORPOPEFRANCIS
BoththehistoricalsituationfacingPopeFrancis,whichtouchesonissuesmorethanfourcenturiesold,and
thecurrentpointsoftensioninrelationsbetweentheVaticanandtheMoscowPatriarchatearethus
complicatedintheextreme.Today,theCatholicChurchsactivitiesareseverelycircumscribedinRussia
CatholicismisonthewaytobeingextinguishedinCrimeayetsomebraveandintelligentRussianOrthodox
thinkersarecallingfortheirChurchtolearnsomethingfromCatholicsocialdoctrineandreexamine
OrthodoxystheoryofChurchstatesymphonywhichseemsinpracticetomeanthesubservienceof
theChurchtothereigningczar,commissar,orpresident.Despitethesechallengesandthisintellectual
ferment,though,FrancisseffortstoshakeuptheRomanCuriahavenotyetsucceededinchangingthe
defaultpositionsthathavegovernedVaticanecumenicalencounterswithRussianOrthodoxy,andVatican
foreignpolicytowardRussia,formorethan40years.

PopeFranciswillmeetPatriarchKirillfullyawareoftheRussianpatriarchscloserelationshipwithVladimir
Putin,whomthepopeknowstobeamanofpowerratherthanprinciple,andaruthlessrulerwhodoesnot
caviltousetheRussianChurchasaninstrumenttoadvancehispoliticalendsincludinghisaimsinthe
MiddleEast,wherePutinwouldliketocloakhisstrategicambitionsintheguiseofadefenderofpersecuted
Christians.ThepopewillbeawareofthefragilityofRussianOrthodoxyinRussia,wherechurchattendance
onSundayinthecitiesisminuscule,despitePutinsconsiderableinvestmentinre-creatingRussianOrthodox
structuresdamagedordestroyedunderCommunism.Thepopewillalsoknowthat,shouldthecommuniqu
heandKirillwillissueinHavanaincludeanythingthatcanbeportrayedasacknowledgingtheRussianclaim
thattheLvivSoborof1946waslegitimate(whichmeansthattodaysUkrainianGreekCatholicChurchis
illegitimate),thelargestoftheEasternCatholicChurcheswillbedeeplyoffendedanditscapacitytomaintain
itsindependenceintodaysUkrainewillbeundercut,atamomentinUkrainesturbulentcontemporary
historywhenPresidentPetroPoroshenkomaybetempted,onceagain,topressforasingleUkrainian
Orthodoxjurisdictionasakindofnationalchurch.ThepopewillalsohavetodealwithKirillinsucha
waythathedoesnotseemtobeweakeningthepositionofEcumenicalPatriarchBartholomewof
Constantinople,whohasshowhimselffarmorefriendlytoCatholicismthantherecentandpresentRussian
Orthodoxleadership.

Andyet,whileavoidingthoselandmines,Franciswillwanttocreateanatmosphereinwhichthisfirst
meetingwithKirilldoesntturnintoaone-offaffairbutis,rather,thebeginningofaregularizationof
contactsbetweenpopeandpatriarch.Itsaverytallorder.

THESTAKESFORKIRILL
PatriarchKirillwillcometohismeetingwithPopeFrancisholdingwhatis,objectively,aweakerhandthan
thepopes.YetthoseVaticandefaultpositionstowardRussianOrthodoxy,combinedwithKirillslikely
strategicgoalsfortheHavanameetingandforanewrelationshipwiththeVatican,makehistasksomewhat
simplerthanFranciss.

ItisvirtuallycertainthatKirillisfarmoreinterestedintheupcominggreatandholycouncilofworld
Orthodoxy(which,onpresentplans,istomeetinCreteinJune)thaninanew,religiouslyserious,and
theologicallydeepenedencounterwithCatholicism.TheverytermThirdRomesuggeststhatKirill,likehis
predecessors,thinksthatConstantinople(theSecondRome)isaspentforce,andthatRussianOrthodoxy
byrightoughttobetheleaderofworldOrthodoxy.ThatheismeetingwithFrancisatallwillhelphimdrive
thatpointhome:He,likehisMuscovitepredecessors,istheonewhoplayedhard-to-getwiththeVaticanhe
won,andhegotthepopetomeetwithhiminaplaceofhischoosingheisnow,therefore,thedefactofirst-
among-equalsinOrthodoxy.

ThenthereisUkraine.KirillandMetropolitanHilarionmustknowthat,atthemoment,theyarelosing
Ukraine.Themostactive,vitalpartsofUkrainianOrthodoxyarethosethathavebrokentheircommunion
withtheMoscowPatriarchate,notleastbecauseofthepatriarchatesacquiescencetoPutinsaggressionin
CrimeaandtheDonbas.YetKirill,likePutin,isaveteranoftheKGBandassuch,heplaysalonggame.
BymeetingwiththepopeandtherebyunderscoringhisclaimtotheleadershipoftheOrthodoxworld(his
primeimperative),Kirillmaywellthinkthatheistakingastepthatadvancestwootherstrategicgoals:
postponingafinalrupturebetweentheMoscowPatriarchateandUkrainianOrthodoxy,andfurther
complicatingtheUkrainianGreekCatholicChurchsrelationshipwithRome.

FromMetropolitanHilarionscommentsontheFrancisKirillmeeting,italsoseemslikelythatKirillwill
presstheVaticantoworkcooperativelyonaidtoChristiansfacinggenocideinIraqandSyria.Thepopeand
hisdiplomatsarefullycognizantofthemortalperilChristiancommunitiesnowfacefromISISanswering
thisRussianOrthodoxcallforcooperationinaidingLevantineChristianswithoutbecomingadefacto
partnerinPutinspushtorestoreamajorRussianroleintheMiddleEastisgoingtorequireconsiderable
Vaticandexterity.

THERUSSIANFUTURE
Russiaremainsdeeplywoundedbymorethan70yearsofCommunism.Itspresent,sadconditiona
kleptocratic,mafia-likestateperchedatopacrumblingcivilsocietywithvastdemographicandpublic-health
problemsisanexpressionofthedamagedonebyLeninandhisBolshevikstoaonce-greatspiritual
culture.Thepathtoa21st-centuryRussiathathonorsthedignityofitsownpeopleandthatisnolongera
threattoitsneighborsortoworldorderisnotgoingtobeamatterofpoliticalandeconomicreformalone.
Thepathtoanobler,morehumaneRussianfutureisgoingtoinvolvearecoveryofthespiritualrichesofthe
RussianOrthodoxpast.AndreclaimingthatpatrimonyintodayscircumstanceswillrequireRussian
Orthodoxytodisentangleitselffromthelethalembraceofstatepower,whichcrippleditsevangelicalvitality
inthepastandcontinuestodosotoday.

ThusonehopesthatPopeFrancis,inhisprivateconversationswithPatriarchKirill,willinsistthatreligious
freedomisaprerequisitetotherebuildingofChristiancultureinsocietiesdeeplywoundedbythehyper-
secularistCommunistpast,andtomeetingthechallengesposedtodaybythesirensongsofasecular,
libertine,materialistfuture.Onthisfront,Franciscouldbothdefendhisownandsuggestapathwaytowarda
betterRussian21stcenturybycitingtheexampleoftheUkrainianGreekCatholicChurch:avibrantreligious
community,formedandsustainedbythespiritualtreasuresoftheChristianEast,thathasembracedreligious
freedomandisallthestrongerforhavingdoneso,bothspirituallyandinitsimpactonsociety.
ThatthemeetingbetweenpopeandpatriarchwilltakeplaceinCubawillstrikemanyasanotentirely
propitiousaugurythatsignificantprogresswillbemadealongtheselinesonFebruary12.ButasPope
BenedictXVIremindedChristiansinhissecondencyclical,SpeSalvi,wearesavedbyhope(Romans
8:24).TheFrancisKirillencountercouldopenthewaytoabetterecumenicalfuture,ifwhatfollowsinits
wakeisagenuinedialoguebetweenCatholicismandRussianOrthodoxyaboutChristianwitnessinthe21st-
centuryworld:adialoguethatwillrequire,ontheRomanside,aroot-and-branchreexaminationofthe
VaticandefaultpositionsonRussianOrthodoxy,andontheMuscoviteside,anabandonmentofthehardball
politicsandsubserviencetotheKremlinthathavelongdriventheMoscowPatriarchatesrelationswiththe
Vatican,withotherOrthodoxchurches,andwithRussianOrthodoxysneighborsinUkraine.

GeorgeWeigelisDistinguishedSeniorFellowofWashingtonsEthicsandPublicPolicyCenter,where
heholdstheWilliamE.SimonChairinCatholicStudies.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterGaladza<pgaladza@ustpaul.ca>
Date:Fri,Feb5,2016at11:19AM
Subject:PLEASECIRCULATE-StatementoftheSheptytskyInstituteregardingPopeFrancis'smeetingwithPatriarchof
Moscow
To:DeborahGyapong<dhgyapong@rogers.com>,PeterJessererSmith<peter.jesserer.smith@gmail.com>,GeorgeWeigel
<bfr10966@gmail.com>,"achirovsky@gmail.com"<achirovsky@gmail.com>,"kenbaseline@aol.com"<kenbaseline@aol.com>,
"Gudziako.Borys"<gudziak@yahoo.com>,"rroberson@usccb.org"<rroberson@usccb.org>,"aonuferko@yahoo.ca"
<aonuferko@yahoo.ca>,"staff@ukrweekly.com"<staff@ukrweekly.com>
Cc:FaithGoldy<Faithgoldy@gmail.com>,"Laschuk,Alex"<alaschuk@archtoronto.org>,"ukecatholic@hotmail.com"
<ukecatholic@hotmail.com>,DanchykGaladza<danielgaladza@gmail.com>,"oleh.turiy@gmail.com"<oleh.turiy@gmail.com>,
"o.OlehOleksa"<ooleh.sekretar@gmail.com>

Pleasecirculate.

PG

VeryRev.PeterGaladza,PhD
ActingDirectorandKuleFamilyProfessorofLiturgy
MetropolitanAndreySheptytskyInstitute

ofEasternChristianStudies

FacultyofTheology
SaintPaulUniversity
223MainStreet
Ottawa,OntarioCANADA

K1S1C4

OFFICEtel:613-236-1393,ext.2419

HOMEtel:613-230-0997
CELLtel:613-882-8272

HOMEaddress:

160McGillivrayStreet
Ottawa,OntarioCANADAK1S1K6

--

YuriS.Broda

[SEEATTACHMENTFORTHES/ISTATEMENT]

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:AndrewFink<finkandrewh@gmail.com>
Date:Fri,Feb5,2016at6:11PM
Subject:RussianpropagandaaboutMinsk/KhersonArmsCache/ContinuingKhersonPropaganda/Endofthe
Bessarabianproject?
To:"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

OngoingFighting/Minskpropaganda

Ifyouhavenotalready,makesureyoureadthisarticlefromtheDailyBeast:TheWar
inUkraineisBack-SoWhyWon'tAnyoneSaySo?(partialanswer,Ithink,isthat
RussianpropagandainEnglishdoesnotconstantlyyammeronaboutUkraineallthe
time,meaningjournalistsanddiplomatsintheUSelsewhereintheWestcanignore
thefighting.Also,thefronthasnotchanged,meaningnewstoriesaboutfightingare
notasexciting.)

Thefightingiscontinuing.Onebecomesinuredtothedailyreportsofshelling,the
dailycasualtyreports,thealmost-dailythreatsofanew"full-scalewar"alwaysonthe
horizon.EverynowandagainZakharchenkoorsomeonelikehimpipesup.Todayhe
saidthathebelievesthatattackshaveincreasedtenfoldandthatUkraineisplanning
alarge-scaleprovocation(surprise!).

QuickreminderaboutRussia'sbasicdiplomaticstrategyinallthis:Getvictoryonthe
cheapbyscaringtheEuropeanstoforceUkrainetobendtoRussia'swillandfederalize,
andwithdrawltheNationalGuardunitsfromthefrontlines,etc.(perhapswitha"Syria
deal"throwninforgoodmeasure).Justincaseyouarenotgettingthemessage,
Russianpropagandare-iterateditverystronglytodayinthisSputnikstory:"Russia
UrgesWesttoInfluenceKievtoFulfillMinskAgreements-Envoy"Ofcourse,thatis
Russia'sinterpretationoftheMinskagreements...

ArmsCachefoundinKherson:

TheSBUhasdisplayedphotographsofanarmscachetheyclaimtheyseizedinthe
villageofChervonyiChabaninKhersonOblast.Thisvillageislessthan2kmawayfrom
theborderbetweenKhersonandRussian-occupiedCrimea.TheSBUreportandphotos
ofthearmscacheshowtwoRPGs,twoIEDs,variousmortarbombs,grenades,etc.and
alargertubepaintedwithcrudecamouflage,thatlookstomealotlikeatubefora
Kornet-typeanti-tanksystem(helpwithidentificationappreciated.)

ThediscoveryofarmscachesinUkraineisnotunusualatallinLuhanskandDonetsk
Oblasts(onesuspectstheyareoftenarmscachesleftbehindbyretreatingRussian
troopsandirregularsin2014.)TherewereoccasionalarmscachesdiscoveredinOdessa
andKharkivOblast(thelastreportedonewasinlate-December2015whenaRussian
subversiveinKharkivsurrenderedtotheauthoritiesandgaveawaythelocation.)Asfar
asIcanremember,thisisthefirstseriousarmscachediscoveredinKherson.True,it
maynotbethearmscacheofaRussiangrouporproxygroup,perhapsaprofessional
armssmuggleroralocalmalcontent,ormaybesomeless-than-helpfulUkrainians
planteditinordertodrawattentiontothedanger.However,threethingsaboutthis
reportedcacheshouldcommandourattention:First,theunusualtypesofweapons.
Evenifthatlargetubeisnotananti-tankmissile,thecachehastwoRPGsand(most
interestingly)whatareapparentlytwoIEDs-whichdon'tshowupoftenoutsideofthe
ATOzone.Seconditslocation.ItwasfoundrightoutsidetheareawhereRussiahas
control(infact,thetownissituatedonareservoirthatliesrightontheborder
betweenOblasts,perhapssubversivesfloatedtheweaponsin?)Also,Chervonyi
ChabanwouldbeagoodplacetostageattacksonthecheckpointsleadingtoCrimea
alongtheM17highway(alsolessthan2kmfromthevillage.)Thisleadstoitemthree:
theongoingRussianpropagandacampaigndrawingtheattentionofradicalRussiansto
KhersonOblast,whichhasbeenwarningwatchersoftroubleaheadsincelate
December(seeemailDec24).

MoreRussianPropagandaaboutKherson:

Theclusterofblogs,"news"websites,andtwitterbotsandtrollsthatspitoutthe
mostextremeRussianpropagandaarecontinuingthemesrelatedtoKhersonOblast.
ThespikeinstoriesaboutKhersonOblaststartedinlateDecember(seeagain,email
Dec242015)Ithascontinuedatasteadylevelsincethen,withstoriespostedof
supposedatrocitiesandthesupposedgatheringstrengthoftheunited
Turkish/Ukrainian/TatarforcesintheOblast.Thispushhasincludedavideoappealfrom
DNRfighterstothepeopleofKhersonthatattackstheCrimeanTatarsandRightSector
activityinKherson(thevideowasreleasedaround30Januaryandalreadyhasnearly
100kviews.)

CominginforspecialvitriolareofcoursetheCrimeanTataractivists,andtheleaderof
theCrimeanBlockadeLenurIsmaylovisthebiggesttargetofthemall.Heiscalleda
terrorist,aproxyofTurkey,themanwhowillstartopenwarbetweenUkraineand
Russia,etc.TheRussiansseemparticularlyalarmed/interestedinthecreationofa
CrimeanTatarunitintheUkrainiannationalguard.OnepropagandistatNewsFront
recentlyclaimedthattheformationofaTatarunitwouldbean"illegalarmed
formation"andthereforeviolatethehallowedMinskagreements.

OverthelastfewdaysasectionoftheRussianpropogandaspherehasbeenhavinga
blastoveraveryanti-CrimeanTatarpostingsupposedlyfromlocalKhersonites.The
proclamation:

We,themovement"CommunityofKherson",appealtotheleadersoftheKherson
regionandofUkraineandaskthemtodeliverusfromtheoccupationfromthe
pseudopatriotsofthe(CrimeanTatar)Majlis.
Wehavealwayslivedinfriendship,peaceandharmonywithourneighbors.Ourhomes
areopentotheCrimeanTatars,butintheKhersonregionthereisnoplacefor
 terroristswhohidebehindthefinewordsof:"aggressor","separatists"and"thereturn
oftheCrimea",whiletheythemselvesstufftheirpockets.LenurMustafa-youarea
disgraceofyourpeople,youareapigdiggingtheearthunderyouroak(thisisa
referencetoafamousfable.)Youwillnevergetourland,andifyoudonotstop,we
willburyyour"graywolves"here.Thereisplentyofspace(forthat.)

Weapologizetothesiteownerandhisvisitors,butwewerenotallowedtoexitandto
beheard.WearealsoagainstthefranklyfalseKhersonmediaglossovertheproblems
ofsociety.

Thatlastlineindicatesthewebsitewashacked.Itsnotthefirsttime.Thiswebsitehas
beeninvolvedinthesekindsoftroublesbefore.InJulytheypostedasubversive,anti-
governmentproclamationthatincludedaflagoftheso-called"KhersonPeople's
Republic"(copyhere)which,accordingtoaFacebookpostfromUkrainianjournalist
AlinaSavchenko.waspostedbyhackers.Theannouncementwasquicklytakendown.
Lookslikethesamegroupoffolksisatitagain,thistimetryingtomakepeople
believethattheanti-CrimeanTatar"CommunityofKherson"isathing.

ThiswhilepropagandapushcouldbeaRussianattempttogetsomeleveragein
negotiationsbyscaringtheUkrainiangovernmentthattroubleisabouttostartand/or
gettheUkrainiangovernmenttoforcetheCrimeanTatarsoutofKhersonorawayfrom
activism.ThearmscachewithIEDsandrocketlaunchersrightacrossthebordermaybe
thefirstphysicalevidencethatthepropagandacampaignispresagingactualRussian
subversionintheOblast.

_______________

People'sRadaOfBessarabia-Isitallover?

Thequiteobviouslypro-RussianseparatistprojecthasbeendormantsinceNovember.
(backgroundreadingontheprojecthere).Theirlastannouncementthatthey
representedanindependentstatethatincludedsouthernMoldovainadditionto
UkrainianBessarabia(alongwithselfdefenseforces)wasfollowedbysilence,broken
onlybythearrestofsuspectedsubversivesinMoldovainDecember.

Theirwebsiteappearstobegonenow.(rada-bessarabia.org)Perhapsthispartofthe
storyofRussiansubversioninUkraineisover.

ForthoseofyouwhocanunderstandRussian,seethisverygoodTVdocumentaryfrom
Odesa'schannel7aboutthelifeoftheBessarabianPeople'sRada
project:http://youtu.be/HCqmsq9eCTQ

 Ourmailingaddressis:

WarinUkraine

Kiev

Kiev06

Ukraine

Addustoyouraddressbook

Wanttochangehowyoureceivetheseemails?
Youcanupdateyourpreferencesorunsubscribefromthislist

SheptytskyInstituteStatementreMeetingofP.pdf

February 5, 2016

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Contact: Rev. Peter Galadza, PhD,

Acting Director, Sheptytsky Institute, Saint Paul University
1-613-882-8272
pgaladza@ustpaul.ca

Statement of the Metropolitan Andrey Sheptytsky Institute of

Eastern Christian Studies Regarding the Meeting of Pope Francis and
Patriarch Kirill of Moscow in Cuba

The Metropolitan Andrey Sheptytsky Institute of Eastern Christian Studies at Saint Paul
University in Ottawa, Canada, welcomes the announcement of the Holy Fathers meeting
with Patriarch Kirill in Cuba this Friday, February 12. We consider this an opportunity
for Pope Francis to raise important issues that have been of grave concern to Eastern
Catholics and many others for more than two decades.

Among these issues, beginning with the most recent, are the following:

1) The support by representatives of the Moscow Patriarchate for the

Kremlins aggression in Eastern Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea.
The violation of the territorial integrity of Ukraine is contrary to all international
law, in particular, the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 to which the Russian
government was a signatory. We believe that as a Christian institution the
Moscow Patriarchate is obliged to challenge the Russian governments violent
activity in Ukraine, activity that has led to the death of thousands of innocent
civilians.

2) The Moscow Patriarchates promotion of the notion of a Russian World

(Russkii Mir).
This notion has provided an ideological foundation for the Russian governments
aggression in Ukraine. The idea of a protectorate to be exercised by Russia
within Ukraine and other sovereign countries has hampered inter-ethnic harmony
and understanding. It evokes the Russification policies of the USSR.

3) The Moscow Patriarchates continued misrepresentation of ecclesiastical

events in Ukraine.
Frequently, the free and legitimate desire of Christians in Ukraine to choose
which Church they belong to, is portrayed by the Moscow Patriarchate as the

1
SheptytskyInstituteStatementreMeetingofP.pdf

seizure of her parishes by illegitimate, and even violent, means. Ukraine does
not have an established Church or religion. Its legislation in this area is fully
pluralistic. Consequently, attempts by the Moscow Patriarchate in Ukraine to gain
privileged status run counter to the separation of church and state in Ukraine. In
fact, it is the Moscow Patriarchates false or exaggerated accusations of violence
that engender hostility among Christians who might otherwise resolve these issues
of ecclesial allegiance with far less rancor. The Moscow Patriarchate should be
apprised of the fact that in Ukraine her desire to maintain the kind of privileged
status that it enjoyed under Communism is harmful to its own interests not to
mention the proclamation of the Gospel.

4) The Moscow Patriarchates claims against the Ukrainian Greek Catholic

Church.
Since the emergence of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church (UGCC) from the
underground in 1989, the Moscow Patriarchate has consistently made mendacious
accusations against the UGCC. These began with claims of violent take-overs
of parishes in Western Ukraine and continued with false reports of
proselytism, which have never been substantiated. Meanwhile, the parishes that
chose to break with Moscow in the early 1990s were all parishes that had been
part of the UGCC until 1946. In that year the Soviet government, with the
complicity of representatives of the Moscow Patriarchate, forcibly liquidated the
UGCC throughout the USSR. The unwillingness of the Moscow Patriarchate to
honestly discuss these matters is another impediment to the healing of memories,
promoted so eloquently by Saint John Paul II. Moreover, every time that the
Moscow Patriarchate has been asked to provide a list of the victims of violence
with medical reports etc it has failed to do so.

5) An unwillingness of institutions associated with the Moscow Patriarchate to

publicly study the events of March, 1946 in an objective manner.
Next month marks the 70th anniversary of the Pseudo-Synod of Lviv of 1946. It
was at that gathering that the Soviet government declared the Ukrainian Greek
Catholic Church illegal. This led to the forced deportation of tens of thousands of
Catholics and the countless deaths of those who refused to leave the Catholic
Church and join the Russian Orthodox Church. In view of the constant
misrepresentation of these events by representatives of the Moscow Patriarchate,
last year the Metropolitan Andrey Sheptytsky Institute of Eastern Christian
Studies invited an academic institution with ties to the Moscow Patriarchate to co-
sponsor an international conference on the events of 1946. The conference would
have provided an excellent opportunity for both sides to objectively and fairly
study the facts. The request fell on deaf ears. Consequently, we ask His Holiness,
Pope Francis to propose such a conference to Patriarch Kirill, and hereby assert
our desire to cooperate in its realization. We believe that such a conference could
foster the Dialogue of Truth suggested by the Balamand Statement of 1993. It
would also provide an opportunity for Eastern Catholics and Eastern Orthodox,
more specifically, Ukrainian Greek Catholics and Russian Orthodox, to move in
the direction of a broader dialogue. We hope that Patriarch Kirills willingness to

2
SheptytskyInstituteStatementreMeetingofP.pdf

overcome the reluctance to meet the Pope a reluctance that has inevitably led to
the perception that the Moscow Patriarchate fears the truth and avoids open
dialogue will also lead to a willingness to confront the issues listed above in a
fair and truly Christian manner. The cause of the Gospel and the credibility of
Christs Church can only benefit from such dialogue if the dialogue is indeed
sincere and open.

It is reported that among the chief aims of the meeting of Pope Francis and Patriarch
Kirill will be to discuss support for the persecuted Christians of the Middle East. The
Metropolitan Andrey Sheptytsky Institute of Eastern Christian Studies is truly gratified to
hear this. We believe that the suffering of our Christian brothers and sisters in the Middle
East has been virtually ignored in some circles, including certain Western governments.

In conclusion, we shall indeed be praying for Gods blessing on this historic meeting
between the Pope and Patriarch. We ask that the Spirit of Truth guide all those involved
in this meeting and those reporting on it. May that Heavenly King indeed come and dwell
within us and purify all our intentions and actions (cf. Byzantine-Rite Prayer to the Holy
Spirit).

3
 From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 01/13/201611:26:53PM
To: kramer<david.j.kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: Mead-AssessingObama'sforeignpolicy|ISPI

http://www.ispionline.it/en/pubblicazione/assessing-obamas-foreign-policy-14441

AssessingObama'sforeignpolicy
PresidentObamasfinalStateoftheUnionaddresscomesatatimewhen,forthefirsttimeinhisadministration,the
publicbelievesthatthenationsmostseriousproblemsinvolveforeignpolicyratherthandomesticissues,themajority
disapprovesofthePresidentshandlingofforeignaffairs,and73percentsaytheywantthenextPresidenttotakea
differentapproachtoforeignpolicy.PresidentObama,forhispart,remainsdeeplycommittedtohisapproachtoforeign
affairs,isdeterminedtocontinueonhiscurrentcoursethroughtheendofhismandate,andwantsanewkindofforeign
policytobepartofthepoliticallegacyofhisadministration.

Thiswillbeanuphillbattle.EvenHillaryClinton,thePresidentsformerSecretaryofState,hasmovedtodistance
herselffromsomeofthePresidentssignaturepolicies.(ShewouldhavebeenmoreinterventionistinSyria,morepatient
withIsrael,lessforthcomingwithRussia.)AsfortheRepublicans,SenatorRandPaulwasthecandidatewhoseforeign
policyviewsmostresemblethoseofthePresident,andinlargepartbecauseofthechangesinpublicsentimentthatthe
Presidentisstrugglingwith,SenatorPaulhasnowbeenrelegatedtothesecond,insignificanttierofRepublicanhopefuls
anddroppedfromtheprincipaldebates.

PresidentObamaandSenatorPaulbothstandwithintheJeffersoniantraditionofAmericanforeignpolicy.Thisschool
ofthoughtbelievesthattheprinciplesoftheAmericanRevolutionfarebestwhenAmericanforeignpolicyisleastactive.To
activelyseekAmericasManifestDestinythroughtheexpansionofAmericasglobalrole,Jeffersoniansbelieve,exposesthe
UnitedStatestoforeignhostility,endangerscivillibertiesathome,andentanglestheUnitedStateswithuntrustworthy
powerswhoarefundamentallyhostiletoAmericanideals.Americacanbestchangetheworld,Jeffersoniansbelieve,by
cultivatingitsowngardenandsettinganexampleofdemocraticprosperitythatotherswillemulate.

PresidentObamasapproachtoIran,thelynchpinofhisMiddleEasternstrategy,isaclassicexampleofJeffersonian
statecraftthroughwhichObamahopestostabilizeandultimatelydemocratizetheMiddleEastwhilereducingAmericas
profileintheregion.ByachievinganuclearagreementandreopeningIranseconomytotheworld,Obamahopestoreduce
thechancesforwar(andtheneedforcloseAmericanallianceswithdifficultallieslikeIsraelandSaudiArabia)while
acceleratingthedemocratictransitionofamodernizingIranbyintegratingthatcountryintointernationalmarkets.

TheoriginalgranddesignoftheObamaglobalstrategywaslooselymodeledontheNixon/Kissingerforeignpolicy:a
mixofdtente,withdrawalandengagement.WhereNixonandKissingerpursueddtentewiththeSovietUnion,withdrawal
fromIndochinaandoutreachtoChina,ObamaproposeddtentewithRussia,SunniIslam,andIranwithdrawalfromIraq
andthepivottoAsiaasanewkindofAmericanengagementinAsia.

PartsoftheObamapolicyarelesscontroversialthanothers.Inparticular,thepursuitofclosertieswithAsiannations
concernedaboutarisingChinaislikelytoremainafeatureinAmericanforeignpolicynomatterwhooccupiestheWhite
HouseinJanuaryofnextyear.Otherelementsofhisforeignstrategyaregenerallyconsideredtohavefailed.ThenextWhite
House,DemocraticorRepublican,islikelytotakeaharderlinewithMoscowandtotakeahardandskepticallookatthe
Presidentscounterterrorismstrategy.

ThemostimportantopenquestionremainsthefateofPresidentObamasoutreachtoIran.Thenuclearagreement,
slatedtogointoeffectthesameweekastheStateoftheUnionaddress,wasthemostimportantdiplomaticagreement
reachedunderPresidentObamaandremainshighlycontroversialintheUnitedStates.Thecontroversyislessoverthe
specifictermsoftheagreementthanaboutwhetherdtentewithIrancanbeachievedontermsthatreduceratherthan
exacerbatethechaoticsituationintheMiddleEastasawhole.ThelogicofPresidentObamasIranandRussiapolicies,for
example,stronglysuggestsanultimateAmericanacquiescenceinthecontinuedpresenceoftheAssadgovernmentin
DamascusaspartofanoverallpoliticalsettlementinSyria.ForPresidentObama,acquiescinginadefactoIraniansphere
ofinfluenceextendingfromBasrainsouthernIraqtoBeirut,evenifIranandRussiaremainaligned,canpotentiallybeseen
asthefirststepinstabilizingtheMiddleEastwhilereducingAmericasprofilethere.Itisnotatallclearthatanyofthe
currentcontendersforthepresidency,HillaryClintonnotexcluded,wouldagreewiththatassessment.
Ultimately,thefutureofPresidentObamasIranpolicywillbedecidedbyeventsontheground.TraditionalAmerican
alliesintheregion,SaudiArabia,Egypt,IsraelandnowincreasinglyTurkeyarepushingagainsttheoutreachtoIranthe
PresidentremainscommittedtohispolicybutasPresidentObamaapproachestheendofhisterm,bothinIranand
elsewherepolicymakerswillincreasinglydiscounthimasafactorinfutureAmericanpolicyanditisimpossibletopredict
howtheregionalenvironmentwillevolve.

Jihadiviolenceisanotherwildcard.Sensationalattacks,liketheoneinParis,orlonewolfattacksliketheoneinSan
BernardinoaredeeplyunsettlingtoAmericanpublicopinion.ThePresidentiscommittedtotheargumentthatoverreaction
leadstocounterproductivepolicydecisionshehassofarfailedtobringthepublicwithhim.Ifthepaceand/ortheintensity
ofsuchattacksincreasesduring2016,theimpactonpublicopinionandevenontheelectioncouldbedecisive,withmajor
consequencesforthePresidentslegacy.

ManyobserversathomeandabroadmisunderstandPresidentObamasforeignpolicy,seeinghimasskepticalof
Americanclaimstoauniqueglobalrole.Onthecontrary,PresidentObamasJeffersionianminimalismisanimatedbyan
overwhelmingfaithintheunstoppablepowerofAmericanideals.Iraninparticular,thePresidentbelieves,ismoving
Americasway.Theyoung,educatedpopulationoftheIslamicRepublicwillpushthecountryirresistiblytowardsomekind
ofaccommodationwithwesternideasinwaysthatthelessadvancedGulfmonarchiescannothopetoemulate.The
Presidenthasrepeatedlydeclaredthatthetideofhistorywillcarryeveryonetoliberaldemocraticshores.Hedismisses
challengestoAmericanpowerasmereshort-termconcernsPutin,themullahsandtheterroristsareincapableofreversing
themarchofhistoryorofdestabilizingtheworldsystem.

ThenextPresidentisunlikelytobeasoptimisticwhatthatmeansforAmericanforeignpolicyremainstobeseen.

WalterRussellMeadistheDistinguishedScholarinAmericanStrategyandStatesmanshipattheHudsonInstitute,the
JamesClarkeChaceProfessorofForeignAffairsandHumanitiesatBardCollege,andEditor-at-LargeofTheAmerican
Interest.
 From: steedmanhinckley<steedman@earthlink.net>
Senttime: 04/10/201608:32:37AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:ToughCustomerPaysTributetoAretha

Manythanksforthis.HadneverevenheardrumorsofafilmofAG!

SentfrommyiPhone

OnApr10,2016,at3:10AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/04/04/aretha-franklins-american-soul(N.B.passageson
CarolKingatKennedyCenter)

SoulSurvivor
<160404_r27923-690.jpg>
ArethaFranklin,NewYork,October14,1968(contactprint).Photographby
RichardAvedon/theRichardAvedonFoundation

Lateonawinternight,ArethaFranklinsatinthedressingroomofCaesarsWindsorHotelandCasino,in
Ontario.Shedidnotweartheexpressionofsomeonewhohasjustbroughtboundlessjoytoafewthousand
souls.

Whatwaswiththesound?shesaid,inatonesomewherebetweenperplexityandirritation.Feedbackhad
piercedaverseofMyFunnyValentine,andbeforeshesatdownatthepianotoplayInseparable,atribute
tothelateNatalieCole,shenarrowedhergazeandcalledonaMr.Lowerytofixthelevelsonceandforall.
MissFranklin,asnearlyeveryoneinhercircletendstocallher,wasdistinctly,ifpolitely,displeased.Fora
timeupthere,Ijustcouldnthearmyselfright,shesaid.

Onthecounterinfrontofher,nexttohermakeupmirrorandhairbrush,weresmallstacksofhundred-dollar
bills.Shecollectsonthespotorshedoesnotsing.Thecashgoesintoherhandbagandthehandbageither
stayswithhersecurityteamorgoesoutonstageandresides,withineyeshot,onthepiano.Itstheerashe
grewupinshesawsomanypeople,likeRayCharlesandB.B.King,getrippedoff,aclosefriend,the
televisionhostandauthorTavisSmiley,toldme.Thereisthesenseinherveryoftenthatpeopleareoutto
harmyou.Andshewonthaveit.Youarenotgoingtodisrespecther.

FranklinhaswoneighteenGrammyawards,soldtensofmillionsofrecords,andisgenerallyacknowledged
tobethegreatestsingerinthehistoryofpostwarpopularmusic.JamesBrown,SamCooke,EttaJames,Otis
Redding,RayCharles:eventheycannotmatchherpower,herrangefromgospeltojazz,R.&B.,andpop.At
the1998Grammys,LucianoPavarotticalledinsickwithasorethroatandAretha,withtwentyminutes
notice,sangNessundormaforhim.Whatdistinguishesherisnotmerelythebreadthofhercatalogueorthe
cataractforceofhervocalinstrumentitshermusicalintelligence,herwayofsingingbehindthebeat,of
sprayingawashofnotesoverasinglewordorsyllable,ofconstructing,momentbymoment,theemotional
powerofathree-minutesong.RespectisaspreciseanartifactasaMingvase.

Therearecertainwomensingerswhopossess,beyondalltheboundariesofouradmirationfortheirart,an
uncannypowertoevokeourlove,RalphEllisonwroteina1958essayonMahaliaJackson.Indeed,wefeel
thatiftheideaofaristocracyismorethanmereclassconceit,thenthesesurelyareournaturalqueens.In
1967,attheRegalTheatre,inChicago,thed.j.PervisSpannpresidedoveracoronationinwhichheplaceda
crownonFranklinsheadandpronouncedhertheQueenofSoul.

TheQueendoesnotrehearsethebandnotforacasinogiginWindsor,Ontario.Sheleavesittoherlongtime
musicaldirector,aseventy-nine-year-oldformerchildactoranddoo-wopsingernamedH.B.Barnum,to
assembleherusualrhythmsectionandbackupsingersandpairthemwithsomelocalunionhornandstring
players,andrunthemthroughathree-hourscanofanythingFranklinmightchoosetosing:thehitsfromthe
latesixtiesandearlyseventiesChainofFools,SpiritintheDark,Thinkalongwithmorerecent
recordings.Sometimes,FranklinwillswitchthingsupandpulloutajazztuneCherokeeorSkylark
butthatisrare.Hergreatestconcernishusbandinghervoiceandherenergies.Whenshewearsafurcoat
onstage,itspartlytokeepwarmandpreventhervoicefromclosingup.Butitsalsobecausethatswhatthe
oldIve-earned-it-now-Im-gonna-wear-itgospelstarsoftendid:theyworethemink.Midwaythroughher
set,shemakeswhatshecallsafalseexit,andslipsbackstageandletsthebandnoodlewhilesherests.Its
afifteen-roundfight,andsoshepacesherself,Barnumsays.Arethaisnotthirtyyearsold.Sheisseventy-
four.

Franklindoesntgetaroundmuchanymore.Forthepastthirty-fouryears,shehasrefusedtofly,which
meansthatshehasntbeenabletoperforminfavoritehauntsfromthelatesixties,liketheOlympia,inParis,
ortheConcertgebouw,inAmsterdam.Whenshedoestravel,itsbybus.NotaGreyhound,exactly,but,still,
itsexhausting.Atripnotlongagofromherhouse,outsideDetroit,toLosAngelesprovedtoomuchto
contemplateagain.Thatonejustworemeout,shesaid.Itsanicebus,butittookdays!Shehas
attendedanxious-flyerclassesandsaidthatshesdeterminedtogetonaplaneagainsoon.Imthinkingabout
makingtheflightfromDetroittoChicago,shesaid.Babysteps.

EveniftheconcertinWindsorwasashadowofherstageworkagenerationago,therewereintermittent
momentsofsublimity.Naturally,shehaslostrangeandstamina,butsheismilesbetterthanSinatraata
similarage.Andshehassurvivedlongerthannearlyanycontemporary.InWindsor,shelaggedforawhile
andthenrippeduptheB.B.Kingtwelve-barbluesSweetSixteen.PerformingChainofFools,areplicaof
theReverendElijahFairsgospeltunePainsofLife,shemanagedtomakeitjustasgreasyaswhenshe
recordedit,in1968.

Beforetheshow,Iwastalkingwithpeopleintheaisles.MorethanafewsaidtheyhadntseenFranklinor
paidmuchattentiontoherrecordingsforyears.Itwasanoldercrowd,buttheyhadntcometoseeanoldies
show.Whatreawakenedthem,theysaid,waspreciselywhathadreawakenedme:avideo,goneviral,of
Franklinsinging(YouMakeMeFeelLike)ANaturalWomanatlastDecembersKennedyCenterHonors.
Watchitifyouhavent:inunderfiveminutes,yourlifewillimprovebyaminimumofforty-sevenpercent.

ArethacomesoutonstagelookinglikethefanciestchurchladyinChristendom:fierceredlipstick,floor-length
mink,abrocadedpink-and-golddressthatBessieSmithwouldhavewornifshedsoldtensofmillionsof
records.Arethasitsdownatthepiano.Sheadjuststhemike.Thensheproceedstopunchoutaseriesof
gospelchordsin12/8time,and,ifyouhaveanounceofsapleftinyou,youareovercome.Ahugeorchestra
wellsupbeneathher,andfourcrackbackupsingersslivertheirperfectlytimedaccents(Ah-hoo!)infront
ofherlines.Arethaissingingwithapowerthatrivalsherownselfofthreeorfourdecadesago.

Upinthefirsttier,sittingnexttotheObamas,CaroleKingisabouttofallovertherail.Sheisanhonoree,and
wroteANaturalWomanwithherfirsthusband,GerryGoffin.FromthemomentFranklinstartsthefirst
verseLookingoutonthemorningrain,/Iusedtofeel...souninspiredKingisrollinghereyesbackin
herheadandwavingonthemusicasifinakindofecstaticpossession.ShesoonspotsObamawipingatear
fromhischeek.(Thecoolcatwept!Kingtoldmelater.Ilovedthat.)

KinghadntseenFranklininalongtime,andwhenshehadFranklinwasnotperformingatthislevelof
intensity.Seeinghersitdowntoplaythepianoputmerungshigheronthelevelsofjoy,Kingsays.And
whenFranklingetsupfromthepianobenchtofinishoffthesongThatsapieceoftheatre,andshesa
divainthebestsense,so,ofcourse,shehadtodothatattheperfectmomentthejoydeepens.

Kingrecallshowthesongcameabout.Itwas1967,andsheandGoffinwereinManhattan,walkingalong
Broadway,andJerryWexler,ofAtlanticRecords,pulledupbesidetheminalimousine,rolleddownthe
window,andsaid,ImlookingforareallybighitforAretha.HowaboutwritingasongcalledANatural
Woman.Herolledupthewindowandthecardroveoff.KingandGoffinwenthometoJersey.Thatnight,
aftertuckingtheirkidsintobed,theysatdownandwrotethemusicandthelyrics.Bythenextmorning,they
hadahit.

Ihearthesethingsinmyhead,wheretheymightgo,howtheymightsound,Kingsays.ButIdonthave
thechopstodoitmyself.Soitwaslikewitnessingadreamrealized.

Beyondthemusicitself,themomenteveryonetalkedaboutafterFranklinsperformanceattheKennedy
Centerwastheway,justbeforethefinalchorus,asshewasreachingtheall-outcrescendo,shestrippedoff
herminkandletitfalltothefloor.Whoosh!Droppingthefuritsanoldgospelmove,agestureofemotional
abandon,oflettingloose.AtMahaliaJacksonswake,ClaraWard,oneofArethasgreatestinfluences,threw
herminkstoleattheopencasketaftershesangBeamsofHeaven.Thefurispartofthedrama,theroyal
persona.WhenFranklinwenttoseeDiahannCarrollinaproductionofSunsetBoulevard,inToronto,she
hadtwoseats:oneforher,oneforthemink.

BackstageinWindsor,IaskedFranklinaboutthatnightinD.C.Hermoodbrightened.Oneofthethreeor
fourgreatestnightsofmylife,shesaid.
 <160404_a19796-690.jpg>
Irefusetoinvadeanotherplanetinmatchingoutfits.

Thecoolcatwept,Kinghadmarvelled.WhenIe-mailedPresidentObamaaboutArethaFranklinandthat
night,hewasntreticentinhisreply.NobodyembodiesmorefullytheconnectionbetweentheAfrican-
Americanspiritual,theblues,R.&B.,rockandrollthewaythathardshipandsorrowweretransformed
intosomethingfullofbeautyandvitalityandhope,hewroteback,throughhispresssecretary.American
historywellsupwhenArethasings.Thatswhy,whenshesitsdownatapianoandsingsANaturalWoman,
shecanmovemetotearsthesamewaythatRayCharlessversionofAmericatheBeautifulwillalwaysbe
inmyviewthemostpatrioticpieceofmusiceverperformedbecauseitcapturesthefullnessofthe
Americanexperience,theviewfromthebottomaswellasthetop,thegoodandthebad,andthepossibilityof
synthesis,reconciliation,transcendence.

Somuchofthishistorythetransformationofhardshipandsorrow,thespiritualupliftafterboundlesspain,
gospelafterbluesisaparticularinheritanceoftheblackchurch.InTheSoulsofBlackFolk,W.E.B.Du
Boiswritesthat,despitecaricatureanddefilement,themusicoftheblackchurchremainsthemostoriginal
andbeautifulexpressionofhumanlifeandlongingyetbornonAmericansoil.Fromthedaysofslavery,the
blackchurchwasarefuge,asafehouseofcommunity,worship,andspeech,andasthedecadespassedthe
musicofSundaymorningbecameincreasinglyassociatedwiththemusicofthenightbefore.ThomasA.
Dorsey,thefatherofmoderngospel,wasawhorehousepianoplayerandthemusicaldirectorofthePilgrim
BaptistChurch,inChicago.Hissongsweresungatrentparties,andatthefuneralofDr.King.Hisgospeland
hisbarrelhousebluesPreciousLord,TakeMyHandandItsTightLikeThat,PeaceintheValleyand
BigFatMamapossess,inhiswords,thesamefeeling,agraspingoftheheart.

Arethasfather,ClarenceLaVaughnFranklin,wasthemostfamousblackpreacherofhisday,andbyfarthe
mostprofoundinfluenceonthecourseofherlife.Hewasbornin1915andgrewupinSunflowerCounty,in
theMississippiDelta.ThiswasthesamelandscapethatbredRobertJohnson,SonHouse,HowlinWolf,
MuddyWaters,andFannieLouHamer.B.B.King,anotherDeltaneighbor,describedinhismemoirsthat
commonground:theKlanandthecrossburningsthefurysuppressedineverychildwhoencountereda
lynchingthestrangefruithangingfromatreenearthecourthouse.Ifeeldisgustanddisgraceandrage
andeveryemotionthatmakesmecrywithouttearsandscreamwithoutsound,Kingwrote.

WhenC.L.Franklinwasaroundfifteen,heexperiencedavision:hesawasingleplankonthewallofhis
houseengulfedinflames.Avoicespoketomefrombehindtheplank,hetoldtheethnomusicologistJeff
ToddTiton,andsaidsomethinglikeGoandpreachthegospeltoallthenations.Bythetimehewas
eighteen,hewasacircuitrider,anitinerantpreacherhitchhikingfromchurchtochurch.

Eventually,helandedapulpitinMemphis,whereheattractednoticeasthekingoftheyoungwhoopers,a
styleofpreachingthatbeginswitharelativelymeasuredexpositionofapassagefromScriptureandthen
crescendosintoanecstatic,musicalflight,withthekindofcall-and-responsethatbecameembeddedinthe
musicofJamesBrown.

FranklinleftMemphisin1944and,afteratwo-yearresidenceatachurchinBuffalo,settledinDetroit,atthe
NewBethelBaptistChurch.Thereheestablishedareputation,acquiringonenicknameafteranotherthe
BlackPrince,theJitterbugPreacher,thePreacherwiththeGoldenVoice.

Inthosedays,NewBethelwasonHastingsStreet,thespineofParadiseValley,whichwasthecenterofthe
blackcommunity.DetroithadswelledwithblackmigrantsfromtheSouth,andHastingsStreetwasdense
withchurchesandblack-runbeautysalons,barbershops,funeralhomesaroundthecornerfromNewBethel
wastheFlameShowBarandLeesSensation.Franklinwas,inthephraseofoneofhiscongregants,stinky
sharp.HedroveaCadillacandtooktowearingslicksuitsandalligatorshoes.

Franklin,hiswife,BarbaraSiggers,andtheirfourchildrenErma,Cecil,Carolyn,andArethalivedina
parsonagehouseonEastBostonBoulevard,amongblackprofessionalsandbusinesspeople.Thereweresix
bedroomsandalivingroomwithsilkcurtainsandagrandpiano.Yet,whileFranklinlivedlarge,hepreacheda
kindofblackliberationtheologyBaptist,butinflectedattimeswiththemoreconvulsiveaccentsofthe
Pentecostal,orsanctified,church.AshisscrupulousbiographerNickSalvatorewrites,hewasunique
amonghisfellowministersinthathewelcomedalloftheresidentsofHastingsStreetprostitutes,drug
dealersandpimpsaswellasthebusinessmen,professionals,andthedevoutworkingclasses.

Franklingainednationalfamebyrecordinghissermons.Thealbumssoldinthehundredsofthousands.On
Sundaynights,hecouldbeheardonWLAC,aNashville-basedstationthatcoveredhalfthecountry.John
Lewis,aleaderofSNCCandacongressmansince1987,recallslisteningtoFranklinontheradiowhenhewas
growingup,inPikeCounty,Alabama.Hewasamasteratbuildinghissermon,pacingit,layeringit,liftingit
levelbyleveltoaclimaxandthenfinallybringingithome,LewiswroteinhismemoirWalkingwiththe
Wind.NoonecouldbringithomeliketheReverendFranklin.

Asagirl,Arethatookitallin:Sundaymorningsandthenightsbefore.Shewasthoroughlyabsorbedinthe
churchlifeofNewBethelandintheculturallifeofherlivingroom,which,attimes,seemedtorepresentthe
epicenterandgenealogyofAfrican-Americanmusic.Sittingonthestairs,shewatchedArtTatumandNat
Coleplaythepiano.OscarPeterson,DukeEllington,DellaReese,EllaFitzgerald,BillyEckstine,andLionel
Hamptoncametovisit.DinahWashingtoncoachedthegirlsontheirsinging.TheReverendJamesCleveland,
apillarofthegospelworld,showedArethahowtoplaygospelchords.ThekidsnearbyincludedDianaRoss,
SmokeyRobinson,andtherosterofwhatbecameMotown.

AsC.L.Franklinsfamegrew,Salvatorewrites,sodidhispenchantfordrinking,womanizing,andworse.In
1940,hehadfatheredachildwithatwelve-year-oldgirl,andheremainedunrepentant.Hecouldalsobe
abusivetothewomeninhislife.In1948,whenArethawassix,hermotherleftDetroittoliveinBuffalo.The
childrensawheroccasionally,buttherewasalwaysaloomingandpowerfulsadnessinthehouse.AsMahalia
Jackson,aclosefriendoftheFranklins,putit,Thewholefamilywantedforlove.C.L.Franklinsmother
helpedcareforthechildren,asdidastringoffriends,secretaries,andlovers,includingClaraWard,ofthe
WardSingers,oneofthegreatgospelvocalistsofhertime.BarbaraSiggersdiedin1952.

Inthemid-fifties,FranklinstartedtheC.L.FranklinGospelCaravanandtouredthecountryforweeksata
time,preachinghisgreatesthits:TheEagleStirrethHerNest,DryBonesintheValley,TheManatthe
Pool.LittleSammyBryant,adwarfwhowasapreternaturallytalentedsinger,oftenopenedtheshowand
appearedalongsidegospelstarsliketheDixieHummingbirds,SisterRosettaTharpe,andtheSoulStirrers,
featuringSamCooke.Arethawasinhisentourage,playingpianoandsinging.Thevoiceringing,powerful,
soulfulandthemusicalguileweretherefromthestart.Shecouldriff,bendingnotesasifhighontheneck
ofaguitarshehadfantasticrangeandcommandofeveryeffect,frommelismatocirclingthebeat.These
techniquescameintoplayinhercareerinR.&B.,soul,andpop,butallthatwasechtgospel,accordingto
thescholarAnthonyHeilbut.

WhenFranklinwasfifteen,sherecordedseveralgospelsongs,amongthemNeverGrowOldandWhile
theBloodRunsWarm.Shealsosawagreatdealoflife,includingthelibertineatmospheresurroundingthe
gospel-musicscene.Bythetimesherecordedthosefirstsongs,shewaspregnantwithhersecondchild.She
leftschoolandwentontheroadfor,moreorless,therestofherlife.

Arethadidnotinheritapurelyreligiousandmusicallegacy.TheFranklinhousewasalsopolitical.Shewas,by
thestandardsofParadiseValley,ayoungwomanofstatusandprivilege,butshesufferedthesame
humiliationsasanyblackwomantravellingthroughtheSouthorventuringintothewhiteprecinctsofDetroit.
BythetimeofthemurderofEmmettTill,in1955,C.L.FranklinhadopenedNewBetheluptothe
movement,and,fromhispulpit,hedenouncedsegregationandwhitesupremacy.WhenDr.Kingcameto
Detroit,hestayedwiththeFranklins.

Aretha,too,joinedthemovement.Atthesametime,sheyearnedforlargerstages.ShesawhowSamCooke
hadcrossedoverintoR.&B.asifitwerethemostnaturalofpassages.In1960,whenshewaseighteen,she
movedtoNewYorkandsignedwithColumbiaRecords.Thismarkedthestartofanextendedapprenticeship
underJohnHammond,whohadbeenbehindthecareersofBillieHolidayandCountBasie.Hammondhaditin
hismindthatArethashouldbethenextgreatjazzsinger,eventhoughtheformwasnolongerascendant.It
wasntuntil1966,whenFranklinwenttoworkwithJerryWexlerandAhmetErtegun,atAtlanticRecords,
thatshereallymadeherhitsinR.&B.ButatColumbia,evensingingstandardslikeSkylarkandHow
DeepIstheOcean,shebrokeintothesecularworld.Franklinhadherfatherssupportandtheexampleof
Cooke,butshefeltcompelledtopublishacolumn,in1961,intheAmsterdamNews,saying,Idontthink
thatinanymatterIdidtheLordadisservicewhenImadeupmymindtwoyearsagotoswitchover.She
wenton,Afterall,thebluesisamusicbornoutoftheslaverydaysufferingsofmypeople.

<160404_a19947-690.jpg>
Wouldyouliketograbawatersometime?

OnJune23,1963,C.L.FranklinhelpedDr.KingorganizetheWalktoFreedom,amarchofmorethana
hundredthousandpeoplethroughdowntownDetroit.AtCoboHall,King,acknowledgingmygoodfriendC.
L.Franklin,deliveredaspeechfilledwithpassagesthatherecycled,twomonthslater,attheMarchon
Washington.ThisafternoonIhaveadream,hetoldthecrowd.Ihaveadream,thatlittlewhitechildren
andlittleNegrochildrenwillbejudgedbythecontentoftheircharacterandnotthecoloroftheirskin.

KinglaterconfidedtoC.L.Franklin,Frank,Iwillneverlivetoseeforty.AtDr.Kingsfuneral,inApril,
1968,ArethawasaskedtosingThomasDorseysPreciousLord.Shewasnowacentralvoiceinboththe
blackcommunity,eclipsingherfather,andinthemusicalworld.Shehadcrossedover.

ThesongsonherfirstrecordsforAtlanticDoRightWoman,DoRightMan,Respect,Dr.Feelgood,
(YouMakeMeFeelLike)ANaturalWoman,Think,ChainofFoolsweretheresolutionofher
apprenticeship.LeavingbehindtheAmericanSongbookforawhileandfindingjusttherightblendofthe
churchandtheblues,shewasnowcelebratedasthegreatestvoiceinpopularmusic.RespectandThink
becameanthemsoffeminismandblackpowerandstandalongsideMississippiGoddamn,Busted,andA
ChangeIsGonnaCome.Daddyhadbeenpreachingblackpridefordecades,shetoldthewriterDavid
Ritz,andweasapeoplehadrediscoveredhowbeautifulblacktrulywasandwereechoing,Sayitloud,Im
blackandImproud.

Atthesametime,Franklinfoundthatthestrainsoflifeasastar,asamother,asadaughtertoher
tempestuousfatherwereattimesunbearable.TedWhite,herfirsthusbandtheymarriedin1961and
divorcedeightyearslaterwasajumped-upstreethustlerwhoabusedher.In1969,whenherfatherleta
radicalorganizationcalledtheRepublicofNewAfricausethesanctuaryatNewBethel,thenightendedina
bloodygunbattlebetweenthegroupandtheDetroitpolice.Thenextyear,shecameoutonstage,inSt.Louis,
andstartedsingingRespectbutthenwalkedoff,unabletocontinue.ThepromoterannouncedthatFranklin
hadsufferedanervousbreakdownfromextremepersonalproblems.Shesoonrecoveredenoughto
perform,butsherarelyseemedunburdened,exceptinthestudioandonstage.

IthinkofArethaasOurLadyofMysteriousSorrows,Wexlerwroteinhismemoirs.Hereyesare
incredible,luminouseyescoveringinexplicablepain.Herdepressionscouldbeasdeepasthedarksea.Idont
pretendtoknowthesourcesofheranguish,butanguishsurroundsArethaassurelyasthegloryofher
musicalaura.

Franklinsvulnerabilityhasbroughtwithitanintensedesireforcontrolthatoftenleadstostillmoreanguish.
Whenitcametimetodoanautobiography,sheenlistedRitz,askilledbiographerandghostwriterwhohad
producedfascinatingbookswithRayCharles,EttaJames,BettyeLaVette,andSmokeyRobinson.Hefound
herasingularlyresistantsubject.Sheinsistedonstrippingthebookofnearlyanythinggrittyordark.
Publishedin1999,itreadslikeanextendedpressrelease.Denialisherstrategyforemotionalsurvival,Ritz
toldme.Itwasonlyatthemicrophone,inhermusic,heconcluded,thatFranklinfeltincommand.Thereare
reportsthatshehas,inrecentyears,beenstrugglingwithcancer,butherfriendssayshedneveradmitto
suchathing,notevenonherdeathbed.

Fifteenyearsaftertheautobiographywaspublished,andflopped,Ritzpublishedanunauthorizedbiography,
filledwithmaterialthathehadaccumulatedovertimefromintimatepersonalandprofessionalsources.The
womanwhoemergesisamusicalgeniusandapivotalfigureintheculturalhistoryoftheblackfreedom
movementsheisalsosomeonewhohassufferedcountlesslosses,beenmistreatedinmanyways,andat
timeshasreactionsthattrythepatienceofherassociates,creditors,family,andfriends.Franklindenounced
thebook:Liesandmorelies!Butnoneofthesources,includingthoseclosesttoher,havebackedaway.

EvenBeyonchashadtheexperienceofdispleasingFranklin.Theoccasionwasthe2008GrammyAwards.
Beyonc,workingfromlinesonaTeleprompterthatwerelikelynotofherowndevising,introducedTina
TurnertotheaudienceastheQueen.WithduerespecttoTinaTurner,thisisArethastitle,assurelyasitis
ElizabethIIs,andFranklin,whoiseasilywounded,issuedascathingproclamation.Itwasacheapshot,
shesaid.

AlargerconsequenceofFranklinscravingforcontrolisthatheraudiencehasbeendeniedoneofhergreatest
treasures.Notlongago,AhmirKhalibThompson,thedrummerandbandleaderbetterknownasQuestlove,
postedthisonhisInstagramfeed:OfalltheinsideindustrystuffIvebeenprivytolearnaboutNOTHING
hastorturedmysoulmorethanknowingoneoftheGREATESTrecordedmomentsingospelhistorywasjust
gonnasitontheshelfandcollectdust.

QuestlovewasreferringtotheholygrailofArethaStudiesafilmedversion,neverseeninpublic,of
AmazingGrace,twogospelconcertsthatFranklingaveinJanuary,1972,attheNewTempleMissionary
BaptistChurch,insouth-centralLosAngeles.Popmusichaslongtantalizeditscompletistfanswithrumors
ofrarefootage:therewasEattheDocument,featuringasceneinwhichastonedJohnLennonteasesan
evenmorestonedBobDylan(Doyousufferfromsoreeyes,groovyforehead,orcurlyhair?)andthere
wasCocksuckerBlues,RobertFrankscollaborationwiththeRollingStones,featuringMickJagger
snortingcoke.Bothfilmsarenowprettyeasytofindandneitherisessential.

ThefilmofAmazingGraceisanothermatter.AtlanticissuedarecordingfromtheconcertsasadoubleLP,
in1972,andithassoldtwomillioncopies,doubleplatinum,makingitthebest-sellinggospelrecordofall
time.Itisperhapshermostshatteringandindispensablerecording.AsFranklinhassaidrepeatedly,Inever
leftthechurch.Theblackchurchwas,andis,ineverythingshesings,fromafalteringMyCountry,Tisof
TheeatObamasfirstinauguraltoaknockoutrenditionofAdelesRollingintheDeep,twoyearsago,on
theLettermanshow.

By1971,Franklinwasatherpeak,withastringofhitsandGrammys,butshewasalsopreparingfora
returntogospel.InMarch,sheplayedtheFillmoreWest,inSanFrancisco,theultimatehippievenue.The
filmofthatdateisonYouTube,andyoucanhearhersingingherhits,frontingKingCurtissastonishingband,
theKingpins.ShewinsoveracrowdmoreaccustomedtotheMixolydianjamsoftheGratefulDead.Andher
surpriseduetwithRayCharlesonSpiritintheDarkisfarfromthehighlight.

Afewsongsintotheset,FranklinplaysonaFenderRhodestheopeningchordsofPaulSimonsBridge
OverTroubledWater,weavinghypnoticgospelphrasesbetweenherbackupsingers(Stillwatersrun
deep...)andtheB-3organlinesofBillyPreston,ahugefigureingospelbutrecognizedbythewhite
audienceasthefifthBeatle,forhisplayingontheLetItBealbum.JustasOtisReddingquitsinging
RespectafterhearingArethasversion(Fromnowon,itbelongstoher),SimonandArtGarfunkel
foreverhadtocompetewiththememoryofthisperformance.Simon,whowrotethesongayearbefore,was
inspiredbyagospelsong,ClaudeJeterandtheSwanSilvertonesversionofMary,DontYouWeep.Jeter
includedanimprovisedlineIllbeyourbridgeoverdeepwaterifyoutrustinmynameandSimonwas
soclearlytakenwithitthatheeventuallygaveJeteracheck.DaphneBrooks,whoteachesAfrican-American
studiesatYale,aptlydescribestheFillmoreWestperformanceasabridgetotheAmazingGraceconcerts
thatwerejustafewmonthsaway.

FranklinenlistedherDetroitmentor,theReverendJamesCleveland,tosingandplaypiano,andthepastor
AlexanderHamiltontoconducttheSouthernCaliforniaCommunityChoir.ThegospelconcertinLosAngeles
openswithMary,DontYouWeep,aspiritualbasedonBiblicalnarrativesofliberationandresurrection,and
recorded,in1915,bytheFiskJubileeSingers.Itispossiblythemostwrenchingmusiconthealbum.
CountlessperformershaverecordedthesongtheSoulStirrers,InezAndrews,BurlIves,JamesBrown,
BruceSpringsteenbutFranklin,whowasneverinbettervoice,seemspossessedbyit.Shedeliversa
pulsing,hauntedversion,takingflightsoflyricalimprovisation,noteafternotesoaringoversinglesyllables.In
herreading,thebluesalwaysresidesingospel,andsomehowthisisherversionofgrace.

ChuckRainey,herbassplayerintheearlyseventies,toldmethatArethasvoicewassoemotionallypowerful
thatattimesshewouldthrowthebandoutofthegroove.Arethacametomeonceandheldmyhandand
shesaidtome,Chuck,dontlistentometoointensely.IknowwhatIdotopeople.Ineedforthebasstobe
whereitissoIcansing.Bernard(Pretty)Purdie,thedrummerontheAmazingGracesessions,toldme
thatFranklin,havingsungforsolongwiththeReverendClevelandatNewBethelandinherlivingroom,was
absolutelysureofherself.Shedidnthavetoworryaboutwhattothinkaboutorsing,hesaid.Sheknew
whatshewasdoingfromjumpstreet.

Theresnoarguingwiththat.ArethasangsongsinLosAngelesthatshefirstsangandrecordedasagirl,
includingNeverGrowOldandPreciousLord.Thereisaten-minute-longAmazingGrace,partsong,
partsermon,thatcouldcomeonlyfromsomeonesteepedinthetraditionofherfathersDeltawhooping.

<160404_a19957-690.jpg>

Therecordisanenduringachievement,buttheevent,likeWoodstock,wassomethingthatalsodeservedto
beseen.SydneyPollack,whohaddirectedJaneFondainTheyShootHorses,DontThey?andhadbeen
nominatedforanAcademyAward,wantedtomakethathappen.Pollackandhiscrewfilmedbothnights.The
sixteen-millimetrecolorfootagewasshotinthemoststraightforwardway,buttherewasaproblem:Pollack
wasnotanexperienceddocumentarian,andheandhiscrewfailedtouseclapperboardstosynchronizethe
soundwiththeimages.Afteramonths-longefforttofixtheproblem,WarnerBros.shelvedtheproject.
PollackwentontodirectTheWayWeWere,ThreeDaysoftheCondor,andOutofAfrica.Helost
interestinAmazingGrace.Thefilmstayedinavaultforfortyyears.

In2007,AlanElliott,arecordproducer,approachedPollackaboutthefilm.Pollackhadcancer,andWarner
Bros.soldElliotttherightstothefilm.Pollackagreedtoworkonitwithhim,buthediedthenextyear.

Elliottsucceededingettingthefilmsynchronized,buthehasnotyetwonoverthesubjectandstarofthe
film.Foryears,heandFranklinhavetussledoverpermissions,rights,andcontracts.TheTellurideFilm
FestivalwasscheduledtoshowAmazingGracelastSeptember,butFranklinslawyersfiledsuit.Judge
JohnKane,oftheU.S.DistrictCourtinColorado,heldaslapped-togetherseventy-one-minutehearingthe
afternoonbeforethescreening.Franklintestifiedbytelephone.

ForthemtoshowthatfilmandforElliotttojustcompletelyandtotallyandblatantlyignoremewheremy
nameandreputation,myconcern,itwouldbeterrible,shesaid.Thisismyfifty-fifthyearinthebusiness,
andheisallbutfearless.

ElliottwasproposingonlytoshowthefilmtoacoupleofhundredpeopleatTelluride,wherethegoalwasto
findadistributor.Hetoldmethathehasofferedtopayherfarmoreamilliondollarsandhalftheproceeds
thanshewasoriginallypromised.Astheynegotiated,Elliottandhisrepresentativesalsoencountereda
qualityofchaosthatoftensurroundsFranklinsbusinessaffairs.Lawyersandagentscameandwent.
Franklin,whoisthewariestofpersonalities,deflectedanddelayed,evenassomeofherclosestfriends
encouragedhertosettlethedealandenjoytheinevitableattentionthatwouldcomewithAmazingGrace.
Arethagetsoffendedwhenshethinksyouthinkyouregettingoveronher,TavisSmileytoldme.Itshard
toknowwhythatlinegetsblurredfromtimetotime,betweenmakingpeoplerespectyouandself-sabotage.
Butdonteverunderestimatethepowerofthepersonal.RespectisnotjustasongtoAretha.Itsthemantra
forherlife.

Arethaauthorizesherownreality,andsometimesitshardtojuxtaposethatrealitytothereality,hewenton.
Wereallguiltyofthatattimes,butArethadoesthattoagreaterextent,anditcanbedangerous.Sometimes,
inlife,wecanunwittinglyself-sabotagewhenwewantultimatecontrol.

InDenver,JudgeKanewasprotectiveofFranklin,issuingtheinjunctionagainstthescreeninginTelluridefor
thatevening.Inhisruling,hequotedOthello:Hethatfilchesfrommemygoodnamerobsmeofthat
whichnotenricheshimandmakesmepoorindeed.ElliottandFranklinhavemeanwhileinchedtowarda
settlement.WhenthehopearosethatAmazingGracewasapossibilityfortheTribecaFilmFestival,coming
nextmonth,RobertDeNirocalledFranklinandimploredhertomakeithappen.Thatisunlikelytooccur.

WatchingArethaFranklinsingfromthepulpitandatthepianosomehowintensifieseverythingheardonthe
record.Itsalmosttoomuchtoabsorbinoneortwoviewings.Ivewatcheditahalf-dozentimes,andit
neverfailstoleavemeintears.ThemosttouchingmomentinthefilmcomeswhenJamesClevelandgestures
toC.L.Franklin,whoissittingupfront,nexttoClaraWard.TheReverendcannotresistapridefulstarturn
atthepulpit.

Ittookmeallthewaybacktothelivingroomathomewhenshewassixandsevenyearsofage,ittookme
backtoabouteleven,whenshestartedtravellingwithmeontheroad,singinggospel,hesays.Isawyou
cryingandIsawyouresponding,butIwasjustabouttobustwideopen.Youtalkaboutbeingmoved,not
onlybecauseArethaismydaughter....Arethaisjustastonesinger.

ThenArethasitsatthepianoandleanshardintoNeverGrowOld.Asshesweatsunderthelights,her
fatherapproachesheratthepianoandtenderlymopsherforeheadwithahandkerchief.

YoucanhearArethasinfluenceacrossthelandscapeofAmericanmusic,nomatterthegenre,Obama
wroteme.Whatotherartisthadthatkindofimpact?Dylan.MaybeStevie,RayCharles.TheBeatlesandthe
Stonesbut,ofcourse,theyreimports.ThejazzgiantslikeArmstrong.Butitsashortlist.AndifIm
strandedonadesertisland,andhavetenrecordstotake,Iknowshesinthecollection.Forshellremindme
ofmyhumanity.Whatsessentialinallofus.Andshejustsoundssodamngood.Heresatip:whenyoure
deejayingaparty,openwithRockSteady.

WiththebreadthofArethasinfluencecomestheregularityofmusicalhomage.Thetitansofhip-hopadore
her.MosDefsampledOneStepAhead,onMs.FatBooty.KanyeWestsampledSpiritintheDark,on
SchoolSpirit.AliciaKeyssampledANaturalWoman,andDr.DreandOutkast,inaccordancewiththe
sageadviceoftheirCommander-in-Chief,sampledRockSteady.TheFugees,PublicEnemy,SlumVillage
Arethaiseverywhere.ThereisnoFormationwithoutRespect.Onequeenfollowsanother.

Beyoncmayhaveoversteppedononeoccasion,butsheknewthescore.Asingerlikeher,whoissteepedin
boththesacredandtheprofane,whocanprovideflawlessversionsofbothPreciousLordand
Bootylicious,understandsthevariousnessofherrootsandthespecificityofherdebts.Thesoulfulness
comesfromthegospel,sheoncesaid.ItcomesfromAretha,wholistenedtoallofthat,whosanginthe
church.

ThemorningaftertheWindsorconcert,IwenttoSundayservicesattheFranklinsoldchurch,NewBethel
Baptist.Arrivinghalfanhourearly,ImetC.L.Franklinssuccessor,PastorRobertSmith,Jr.,astoutgray-
hairedmaninadarkthree-piecesuit.

PastorSmithledmetothehistoryroom,whichwasfilledwithphotographsandsouvenirsoftheFranklins.
Thesanctuarycanholdacoupleofthousandworshippers,butthestreamofpeoplearrivingwasmodest.The
daysofvitality,ofParadiseValleyandBlackBottom,arelonggone.TheworkersforFordandGeneral
MotorswentSouth.Therearefewmiddle-classparishionersleftatNewBethel.Myappealislargelytothe
broken,PastorSmithsaid.Peoplecomingfromprison,drugs.Mystyleofpreachingdoesntappealtothe
professionals.Alotofthemaregoingofftothemega-churches.

ItsbeenalongtimesinceNewBethelechoedwithTheEagleStirrethHerNest.Earlyonemorningin1979,
sixburglarsbrokeintoC.L.Franklinshouse.Franklinkeptaguninhisroomandfiredtwoerrantshots.One
oftheburglarsfiredback,hittinghimonceinthekneeandonceinthegroin,rupturinghisfemoralartery.He
spentfiveyearsinacomaanddied.HisfuneralwasamongthelargestinthehistoryofDetroit.

Likeothers,PastorSmithhashadhisrockymomentswithArethaFranklinovertheyears,andiscarefulnot
tooffendher.ArethaissupportiveofNewBethelsendingmoneyandfoodpackages,organizingthe
occasionalgospelconcertandtheirrelations,hesays,arebetternowthantheyvebeen,butitsaday-to-
daything.TheimportanceofArethaFranklin,hemadeclear,isthesenseofhigherthingsthathermusic
inspires.

Therestisdross.Hergenius,hercentralplaceinAmericanmusicandspirit,isundeniable.

IdontcarewhattheysayaboutAretha,BillyPreston,whodiedin2006,oncesaid.Shecanbehidingout
inherhouseinDetroitforyears.ShecangodecadeswithouttakingaplaneorflyingofftoEurope.Shecan
cancelhalfhergigsandinfuriateeveryproducerandpromoterinthecountry.Shecansingallkindsofjive-
asssongsthatarebeneathher.Shecangointoherdivaactandturnofftheworld.Butonanygivennight,
whenthatladysitsdownatthepianoandgetsherbodyandsoulalloversomerighteoussong,shellscare
theshitoutofyou.Andyoullknowyoullswearthatshesstillthebestfuckinsingerthisfucked-up
countryhaseverproduced.

Signupforthedailynewsletter:thebestofTheNewYorkereveryday.
 From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 01/18/201608:44:52AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: WRM:JacksonianTradition

http://denbeste.nu/external/Mead01.html

TheJacksonianTraditionbyWalterRussellMead

InthelastfivemonthsofWorldWarII,Americanbombingraidsclaimedthelivesofmorethan900,000Japanesecivilians
notcountingthecasualtiesfromtheatomicstrikesagainstHiroshimaandNagasaki.Thisismorethantwicethetotal
numberofcombatdeathsthattheUnitedStateshassufferedinallitsforeignwarscombined.

Ononenight,thatofMarch9-10,1945,234Superfortressesdropped1,167tonsofincendiarybombsoverdowntown
Tokyo83,793Japanesebodieswerefoundinthecharredremainsanumbergreaterthanthe80,942combatfatalitiesthat
theUnitedStatessustainedintheKoreanandVietnamWarscombined.

SincetheSecondWorldWar,theUnitedStateshascontinuedtoemploydevastatingforceagainstbothcivilianandmilitary
targets.Outofapre-warpopulationof9.49million,anestimated1millionNorthKoreanciviliansarebelievedtohavedied
asaresultofU.S.actionsduringthe1950-53conflict.Duringthesamewar,33,870Americansoldiersdiedincombat,
meaningthatU.S.forceskilledapproximatelythirtyNorthKoreanciviliansforeveryAmericansoldierwhodiedinaction.
TheUnitedStatesdroppedalmostthreetimesasmuchexplosivetonnageintheVietnamWaraswasusedintheSecond
WorldWar,andsomethingontheorderof365,000Vietnameseciviliansarebelievedtohavebeenkilledduringtheperiodof
Americaninvolvement.

RegardlessofClausewitzsadmonitionthat"casualtyreports...areneveraccurate,seldomtruthful,andinmostcases
deliberatelyfalsified",thesenumbersaretoostrikingtoignore.Theydonot,ofcourse,suggestamoralparallelbetweenthe
behaviorof,say,GermanandJapaneseaggressorsandAmericanforcesseekingtodefeatthoseaggressorsintheshortest
possibletime.GermanandJapaneseforcesusedtheindiscriminatemurderofciviliansasaroutinepolicetoolinoccupied
territory,andwholesalemassacresofciviliansoftenaccompaniedGermanandJapaneseadvancesintonewterritory.The
behavioroftheGermanEinsatzgruppenandoftheJapanesearmyduringtheRapeofNankinghasnosignificantparallelon
theAmericanside.

IntheColdWar,too,theevilstheAmericansfoughtwerefarworsethanthosetheyinflicted.Tensofmillionsmore
innocentciviliansincommunistnationsweremurderedbytheirowngovernmentsinpeacetimethaneverdiedastheresult
ofAmericanattemptstohaltcommunismsspread.War,evenbrutalwar,wasmoremercifulthancommunistrule.

Nevertheless,theAmericanwarrecordshouldmakeusthink.AnobserverwhothinksofAmericanforeignpolicyonlyin
termsofthecommercialrealismoftheHamiltonians,thecrusadingmoralismofWilsoniantranscendentalists,andthesupple
pacifismoftheprincipledbutslipperyJeffersonianswouldbeatalosstoaccountforAmericanruthlessnessatwar.

ThosewhoprefertobelievethatthepresentglobalhegemonyoftheUnitedStatesemergedthroughaprocessof
immaculateconceptionaverttheireyesfrommanydistressingmomentsintheAmericanascension.Yetstudentsof
AmericanpowercannotignoreoneofthechiefelementsinAmericansuccess.TheUnitedStatesoveritshistoryhas
consistentlysummonedthewillandthemeanstocompelitsenemiestoyieldtoitsdemands.

ThroughthelongsweepofAmericanhistory,therehavebeenmanyoccasionswhenpublicopinion,oratleastanimportant
partofit,gotaheadofpoliticiansindemandingwar.ManyoftheIndianwarswerecausedlessbyIndianaggressionthan
bymovementsoffrontierpopulationswillingtoprovokeandfightwarswithIndiantribesthatwerenominallyunder
Washingtonsprotectionandcontrarybothtothepolicyandthewishesofthenationalgovernment.TheWarof1812
cameaboutlargelybecauseofapopularmovementintheSouthandMidwest.AbrahamLincolnbarelysucceededin
preventingawarwithBritainovertheTrentAffairduringtheCivilWarpublicopinionmadeitdifficultforhimtofindan
acceptable,face-savingsolutiontotheproblem.Morerecently,JohnKennedy,LyndonJohnsonandRichardNixonwereall
hauntedbyfearsthatapulloutfromtheVietnamWarwouldtriggerapopularbacklash.

Oncewarsbegin,asignificantelementofAmericanpublicopinionsupportswagingthematthehighestpossiblelevelof
intensity.ThedevastatingtacticsofthewarsagainsttheIndians,GeneralShermanscampaignof1864-65,andthe
unprecedentedaerialbombardmentsofWorldWarIIwereallbroadlypopularintheUnitedStates.DuringboththeKorean
andVietnamWars,presidentscameunderintensepressure,notonlyfrommilitaryleadersbutalsofrompublicopinion,to
hittheenemywithallavailableforceinallavailableplaces.ThroughouttheColdWarthepathofleastresistancein
Americanpoliticswasgenerallythemorehawkishstance.Politicianswhoadvocatednegotiatedcompromiseswiththe
Sovietenemywerelabeledappeasersandpaidaheavypoliticalprice.TheKoreanandVietnamWarslostpublicsupportin
partbecauseofpoliticaldecisionsnottorisktheconsequencesofall-outwar,notnecessarilystoppingshortoftheuseof
nuclearweapons.ThemostcostlydecisionGeorgeBushtookintheGulfWarwasnottosendgroundforcesintoIraq,but
tostopshortoftheoccupationofBaghdadandthecaptureandtrialofSaddamHussein.

ItisoftenremarkedthattheAmericanpeoplearemorereligiousthantheiralliesinWesternEurope.Butitisequallytruethat
theyaremoremilitary-minded.Currently,theAmericanpeoplesupportwithoutcomplaintwhatiseasilythehighestmilitary
budgetintheworld.In1998theUnitedStatesspentasmuchondefenseasitsNATOallies,SouthKorea,Japan,thePersian
Gulfstates,RussiaandChinacombined.Inresponsetowidespreadpublicconcernaboutadeclineinmilitarypreparedness,
theClintonadministrationandtheRepublicanCongressareplanningsubstantialincreasesinmilitaryspendingintheyearsto
come.

Americansdonotmerelypayfortheseforces,theyusethem.SincetheendoftheVietnamWar,takenbysomeasopening
aneweraofreluctanceintheexerciseofAmericanpower,theUnitedStateshasdeployedcombatforcesin,oruseddeadly
forceover,Cambodia,Iran,Grenada,Panama,Lebanon,Libya,SaudiArabia,Kuwait,Iraq,Turkey,Somalia,Haiti,Bosnia,
Sudan,Afghanistan,theSouthChinaSea,Liberia,Macedonia,AlbaniaandYugoslavia.Thisisarecordthatnoothercountry
comesclosetomatching.

Itisalsogenerallyconcededthat,withtheexceptionofahandfulofeliteunitsinsuchforcesastheBritishArmy,American
troopshaveastronger"warriorculture"thandothearmiesofotherwealthycountries.Indeed,ofallthenatocountries
otherthanTurkeyandGreece,onlyGreatBritaintodayhasanythingliketheAmerican"warlobby"thatbecomesactivein
timesofnationalcrisisapoliticalforcethatundercertaincircumstancesdemandswar,supportsthedecisiveuseofforce,
andurgespoliticalleaderstostopwastingtimewithnegotiations,sanctionsandSecurityCouncilmeetingsinordertoattack
theenemywithallpossiblestrength.

WhyisitthatU.S.publicopinionisoftensoquickthoughsometimessoslowtosupportarmedinterventionabroad?
Whataretheprovocationsthatenergizepublicopinion(atleastsomeofit)forwarandhow,ifatall,isthis"warlobby"
relatedtotheotherelementsofthatopinion?Thekeytothiswarlikedisposition,andtootherimportantfeaturesof
Americanforeignpolicy,istobefoundinwhatIshallcallitsJacksoniantradition,inhonorofthesixthpresidentofthe
UnitedStates.

TheSchoolofAndrewJackson

ItisatributetothegeneralhistoricalamnesiaaboutAmericanpoliticsbetweentheWarof1812andtheCivilWarthat
AndrewJacksonisnotmorewidelycountedamongthegreatestofAmericanpresidents.VictorintheBattleofNew
OrleansperhapsthemostdecisivebattleintheshapingofthemodernworldbetweenTrafalgarandStalingradAndrew
JacksonlaidthefoundationofAmericanpoliticsformostofthenineteenthcentury,andhisinfluenceisstillfelttoday.With
theeverreadyhelpofthebrilliantMartinVanBuren,hetookAmericanpoliticsfromtheeraofsilkstockingsintothe
smoke-filledroom.Everypoliticalpartysincehispresidencyhasdrawnonthesymbolism,theinstitutionsandthe
instrumentsofpowerthatJacksonpioneered.

Morethanthat,hebroughttheAmericanpeopleintothepoliticalarena.Restrictedstatefranchiseswithhighproperty
qualificationsmeantthatin1820manyAmericanstateshadhigherpropertyqualificationsforvotersthandidboroughsfor
theBritishHouseofCommons.WithJacksonspresidency,universalmalesuffragebecamethebasisofAmericanpolitics
andpoliticalvalues.

Hispoliticalmovementor,moreaccurately,thecommunityofpoliticalfeelingthathewieldedintoaninstrumentofpower
remainsinmanywaysthemostimportantinAmericanpolitics.SolidlyDemocraticthroughtheTrumanadministration(a
traditioncommemoratedintheannualJefferson-JacksonDaydinnersthatarestillthehighpointsonDemocraticParty
calendarsinmanycitiesandstates),JacksonianAmericashiftedtowardtheRepublicanPartyunderRichardNixonthe
mostimportantpoliticalchangeinAmericanlifesincetheSecondWorldWar.ThefutureofJacksonianpoliticalallegiance
willbeoneofthekeystothepoliticsofthetwenty-firstcentury.

Suspiciousofuntrammeledfederalpower(Waco),skepticalabouttheprospectsfordomesticandforeigndo-gooding
(welfareathome,foreignaidabroad),opposedtofederaltaxesbutobstinatelyfondoffederalprogramsseenasprimarily
helpingthemiddleclass(SocialSecurityandMedicare,mortgageinterestsubsidies),Jacksoniansconstitutealargepolitical
interest.

InsomewaysJacksoniansresembletheJeffersonians,withwhomtheirpoliticalfortuneswerelinkedforsomanydecades.
LikeJeffersonians,Jacksoniansareprofoundlysuspiciousofelites.Theygenerallypreferaloosefederalstructurewithas
muchpoweraspossibleretainedbystatesandlocalgovernments.Butthedifferencesbetweenthetwomovementsrunvery
deepsodeepthatduringtheColdWartheywereondeadoppositesidesofmostimportantforeignpolicyquestions.To
usethelanguageoftheVietnamera,atimewhenJeffersoniansandJacksonianswerefightinginthestreetsoverforeign
policy,theformerwerethemostdovishcurrentinmainstreampoliticalthoughtduringtheColdWar,whilethelatterwere
themostconsistentlyhawkish.

OnewaytograspthedifferencebetweenthetwoschoolsistoseethatbothJeffersoniansandJacksoniansarecivil
libertarians,passionatelyattachedtotheConstitutionandespeciallytotheBillofRights,anddeeplyconcernedtopreserve
thelibertiesofordinaryAmericans.ButwhiletheJeffersoniansaremostprofoundlydevotedtotheFirstAmendment,
protectingthefreedomofspeechandprohibitingafederalestablishmentofreligion,JacksoniansseetheSecond
Amendment,therighttobeararms,asthecitadelofliberty.JeffersoniansjointheAmericanCivilLibertiesUnion
JacksoniansjointheNationalRifleAssociation.Insodoing,bothareconvincedthattheyarestandingatthebarricadesof
freedom.

ForforeignersandforsomeAmericans,theJacksoniantraditionistheleastimpressiveinAmericanpolitics.Itisthemost
deploredabroad,themostdenouncedathome.JacksonianchairsoftheSenateForeignRelationsCommitteearethedespair
ofhigh-mindedpeopleeverywhere,astheyholdupadhesiontotheKyotoProtocol,starvetheUNandtheIMF,cutforeign
aid,andbantheuseofU.S.fundsforpopulationcontrolprogramsabroad.Whenspokesmenforotherschoolsofthought
speakaboutthe"problems"ofAmericanforeignpolicy,thepersistenceandpoweroftheJacksonianschoolarehighon
theirlist.Whilesomeofthisfashionabledespairmaybeoverdone,andisperhapsareflectionofdifferentclassinterestsand
values,itistruethatJacksoniansoftenfigureasthemostobstructionistoftheschools,astheleastlikelytosupport
Wilsonianinitiativesforabetterworld,tounderstandJeffersoniancallsforpatientdiplomacyindifficultsituations,orto
acceptHamiltoniantradestrategies.YetwithoutJacksonians,theUnitedStateswouldbeamuchweakerpower.

AprincipalexplanationofwhyJacksonianpoliticsaresopoorlyunderstoodisthatJacksonianismislessanintellectualor
politicalmovementthananexpressionofthesocial,culturalandreligiousvaluesofalargeportionoftheAmericanpublic.
Anditisdoublyobscurebecauseithappenstoberootedinoneoftheportionsofthepublicleastrepresentedinthemedia
andtheprofessoriat.JacksonianAmericaisafolkcommunitywithastrongsenseofcommonvaluesandcommondestiny
thoughperiodicallyledbyintellectuallybrilliantmenlikeAndrewJacksonhimselfitisneitheranideologynoraself-
consciousmovementwithaclearhistoricaldirectionorpoliticaltableoforganization.Nevertheless,JacksonianAmericahas
producedandlookssettocontinuetoproduceonepoliticalleaderandmovementafteranother,anditislikelyto
continuetoenjoymajorinfluenceoverbothforeignanddomesticpolicyintheUnitedStatesfortheforeseeablefuture.

TheEvolutionofaCommunity

ItisnotfashionabletodaytothinkoftheAmericannationasafolkcommunityboundtogetherbydeepculturalandethnic
ties.BelieversinamulticulturalAmericaattackthisideafromonedirection,butconservativestoohaveatendencytotalk
abouttheUnitedStatesasanationbasedonideologyratherthanethnicity.FormerBritishPrimeMinisterMargaret
Thatcher,amongothers,hassaidthattheUnitedStatesisunlikeothernationsbecauseitisbasedonanidearatherthanona
communityofnationalexperience.ThecontinuingandgrowingvitalityoftheJacksoniantraditionis,forbetterorworse,
livingproofthatsheisatleastpartlywrong.

IfJeffersonianismisthebook-ideologyoftheUnitedStates,Jacksonianpopulismisitsfolk-ideology.Historically,American
populismhasbeenbasedlessontheideasoftheEnlightenmentthanonthecommunityvaluesandsenseofidentityamong
theBritishcolonizerswhofirstsettledthiscountry.Inparticular,asDavidHackettFischerhasshown,Jacksonianpopulism
canbeoriginallyidentifiedwithasubgroupamongthesesettlers,theso-called"Scots-Irish",whosettledthebackcountry
regionsoftheCarolinasandVirginia,andwhowentontosettlemuchoftheOldWestWestVirginia,Kentucky,partsof
IndianaandIllinoisandthesouthernandsouthcentralstatesofTennessee,Missouri,Alabama,MississippiandTexas.
Jacksonianpopulismtodayhasmovedbeyonditsoriginalethnicandgeographicallimits.Likecountrymusic,another
productofJacksonianculture,JacksonianpoliticsandfolkfeelinghasbecomeabasicelementinAmericanconsciousness
thatcanbefoundfromoneendofthecountrytotheother.

TheScots-Irishwereahardyandwarlikepeople,withacultureandoutlookformedbycenturiesofbitterwarfarebefore
theycametotheUnitedStates.Fischershowshow,trappedonthefrontiersbetweenEnglandandScotland,orplantedas
ProtestantcoloniesinthehostilesoilofIreland,thisculturewasshapedthroughcenturiesofconstant,bloodywar.The
RevolutionarystruggleandgenerationsofsavagefrontierconflictintheUnitedStatesreproducedtheseconditionsinthe
NewWorldtheCivilWarfoughtwithparticularferocityintheborderstatesrenewedtheculturalheritageofwar.

TheroleofwhatwearecallingJacksonianAmericainnineteenth-centuryAmericaisclear,butmanytwentieth-century
observersmadewhatonceseemedthereasonableassumptionthatJacksonianvaluesandpoliticsweredyingout.These
observerswerebothsurprisedanddiscomfitedwhenRonaldReaganspoliticalsuccessshowedthatJacksonianAmerica
haddonemorethansurviveitwas,andis,thriving.

WhathashappenedisthatJacksonianculture,valuesandself-identificationhavespreadbeyondtheiroriginalethniclimits.
Inthe1920sand1930sthehighland,bordertraditioninAmericanlifewaswidelythoughttobedyingout,ethnically,
culturallyandpolitically.PartofthiswastheeconomicanddemographiccollapseofthetraditionalhomeofJacksonian
America:thefamilyfarm.Atthesametime,massimmigrationfromsouthernandEasternEuropetiltedtheethnicbalanceof
theAmericanpopulationeverfartherfromitscolonialmix.NewEnglandYankeeswereavanishingspecies,limitedtothe
hillsofNewHampshireandVermont,whilethecitiesandplainsofConnecticut,MassachusettsandRhodeIslandfilledwith
Irishmen,Italians,PortugueseandGreeks.ThegreatcitiesoftheUnitedStateswereincreasinglyfilledwithCatholics,
membersoftheOrthodoxchurchesandJewsallprofessinginonewayoranothercommunitariansocialvaluesvery
muchatoddswiththeindividualismoftraditionalAnglo-SaxonandAnglo-Celticculture.

AsHiramW.Evans,thesurprisinglyarticulateImperialWizardoftheKuKluxKlan,wrotein1926,theoldstockAmerican
ofhistimehadbecome

astrangerinlargepartsofthelandhisfathersgavehim.Moreover,heisamostunwelcomestranger,onemuchspitupon,
andonetowhomeventherighttohavehisownopinionsandtoworkforhisowninterestsisnowdeniedwithjeersand
revilings.WemustAmericanizetheAmericans,adistinguishedimmigrantsaidrecently.

Protestantismitselfwaslosingitsedge.ThemodernistcritiqueoftraditionalBiblicalreadingsfoundacceptanceinone
mainlinedenominationafteranotherEpiscopal,Presbyterian,MethodistandLutheranseminariesacceptedcritical,post-
DarwinianreadingsofScriptureself-described"fundamentalists"foughtaslow,butapparentlylosing,rearguardaction
againstthemodernistforces.ThenewmainlineProtestantismwasatolerant,evenanamby-pamby,religion.

Theoldnativistspirit,anti-immigrant,anti-modernartandapparentlyanti-twentiethcentury,stillhadsomebiteKuKlux
crossesflamedacrosstheMidwestaswellastheSouthduringthe1920sbutitalllookedlikethedeaththroesofan
outdatedidea.Therewerentmanymourners:muchofH.L.Menckenscareerwasbasedonexposingthelimitationsand
mockingthedeathofwhatwearecallingJacksonianAmerica.

Mostprogressive,rightthinkingintellectualsinmid-centuryAmericabelievedthatthefutureofAmericanpopulismlayina
socialdemocraticmovementbasedonurbanimmigrants.SocialactivistslikeWoodyGuthrieandPeteSeegerconsciously
soughttouseculturalformslikefolksongstoeasethetransitionfromtheoldindividualisticfolkworldtothecollectivenew
onethattheybelievedwasthewaveofthefuturetheycelebratedunionsandotherstrange,Europeanideasindownhome
countrytwangssothat,inthebitterwordsofHiramEvans,"Thereisasteadyfloodofalienideasbeingspreadoverthe
country,alwayscarefullydisguisedasAmerican."

Whatcamenextsurprisedalmosteveryone.Thetablesturned,andEvansAmericans"americanized"theimmigrantsrather
thantheotherwayaround.Inwhatisstillalargelyunheraldedtriumphofthemeltingpot,Northernimmigrantsgradually
assimilatedthevaluesofJacksonianindividualism.EachgenerationofnewAmericanswasless"social"andmore
individualisticthantheprecedingone.AmericanCatholics,onceamongtheworldsmostorthodox,remainedCatholicin
religiousallegiancebutwereincreasinglyindividualisticintermsofpsychologyandbehavior("IrespectthePope,butIhave
tofollowmyownconscience").Tiestothecountriesofemigrationsteadilyweakened,andthetendencytomarryoutside
thegroupstrengthened.

Outwardly,mostimmigrantgroupscompletedanapparentassimilationtoAmericanmaterialculturewithinacoupleof
generationsoftheirarrival.Asecondtypeofassimilationaninwardassimilationtoandadaptationofthecoreculturaland
psychologicalstructureofthenativepopulationtooklonger,butasthird,fourthandfifth-generationimmigrantfamilies
wereexposedtotheeconomicandsocialrealitiesofAmericanlife,theywereincreasingly"americanized"ontheinsideas
wellaswithout.

Thisimmenseandcomplexprocesswasacceleratedbysocialchangesthattookplaceafter1945.Physically,theold
neighborhoodsbrokeup,andtheNorthernindustrialworkingclass,alongwiththerefugeesfromthedyingAmericanfamily
farm,movedintothesuburbstoformanewpopulistmix.Asincreasingnumbersofthedescendantsofimmigrantsmoved
intotheJacksonianSunbelt,thepaceofassimilationgrew.Thesuburbanhomeownerwithhisorherfederallysubsidized
mortgagereplacedthehomesteadingfarmer(onfreefederalland)asthecentralpillarofAmericanpopulism.RichardNixon,
withhistwo-prongedappealtowhiteSouthernersandthe"JoeSix-pack"votersoftheNorth,wasthefirstnational
politiciantorecognizethepowerofthisnewlyenergizedcurrentinAmericanlife.

Urban,immigrantAmericamayhavesoftenedsomeoftheroughedgesofJacksonianAmerica,butthedescendantsofthe
greatwaveofEuropeanimmigrationsoundmorelikeAndrewJacksonfromdecadetodecade.Ruggedfrontier
individualismhasproventobecontagiouseachsuccessivegenerationhasbeenmoreJacksonianthanitspredecessor.The
socialandeconomicsolidarityrootedinEuropeanpeasantcommunitieshasbeenovermasteredbytheindividualismofthe
frontier.ThedescendantsofEuropeanworking-classMarxistsnowquoteAdamSmithJoeSix-packthinksofthewelfare
stateasanexpensiveburden,notpartofthenaturalmoralorder.Intellectualshavemadethistransitionasthoroughlyas
anyoneelse.ThechildrenandgrandchildrenoftradeunionistsandTrotskyitesnowtalkabouttheimportanceofliberal
societyandfreemarketsintheintellectualpilgrimageofIrvingKristol,whatisusuallyamultigenerationalprocesshasbeen
compressedintoasingle,brilliantcareer.

ThenewJacksonianismisnolongerruralandexclusivelynativist.FrontierJacksonianismmayhavetakenthehomesteading
farmerandthelogcabinasitsemblems,buttodaysCrabgrassJacksonianismseesthehomeowneronhismodestsuburban
lawnastheherooftheAmericanstory.TheCrabgrassJacksonianmayweargreenonSt.PatricksDayheorshemight
gotoaCatholicChurchandneverlistentocountrymusic(though,increasingly,heorsheprobablydoes)butthe
CrabgrassJacksoniandoesntjustbelieve,sheknowsthatsheisasgoodanAmericanasanybodyelse,thatsheisentitled
toherrightsfromChurchandState,thatshepullsherownweightandexpectsotherstodothesame.Thathomeownerwill
beheardfrom:RonaldReaganowedmuchofhispopularityandsuccesstohisabilitytoconnectwithJacksonianvalues.
RossPerotandPatBuchananindifferentwayshavemanagedtotapintothepowerofthepopulistenergythatOldHickory
rodeintotheWhiteHouse.Inbothdomesticandforeignpolicy,thetwenty-firstcenturywillbeprofoundlyinfluencedby
thevaluesandconcernsofJacksonianAmerica.

TheJacksonianCode

TounderstandhowCrabgrassJacksonianismisshapingandwillcontinuetoshapeAmericanforeignpolicy,wemustbegin
withanotherunfashionableconcept:Honor.AlthoughfewAmericanstodayusethisanachronisticword,honorremainsa
corevaluefortensofmillionsofmiddle-classAmericans,womenaswellasmen.Theunacknowledgedcodeofhonorthat
shapessomuchofAmericanbehaviorandaspirationtodayisarecognizabledescendentofthefrontiercodesofhonorof
earlyJacksonianAmerica.TheappealofthiscodeisoneofthereasonsthatJacksonianvalueshavespreadtosomany
peopleoutsidetheoriginalethnicandsocialnexusinwhichJacksonianAmericawasformed.

Thefirstprincipleofthiscodeisself-reliance.RealAmericans,manyAmericansfeel,arepeoplewhomaketheirownway
intheworld.Theymaygetahelpinghandfromfriendsandfamily,buttheyholdtheirplacesintheworldthroughhonest
work.Theydontslidebyonwelfare,andtheydontrelyoninheritedwealthorconnections.Thosewhowontworkand
arethereforepoor,orthosewhodontneedtoworkduetofamilymoney,areviewedwithsuspicion.Thosewhomeetthe
economicandmoraltestsbelongtothebroadMiddleClass,thefolkcommunityofworkingpeoplethatJacksoniansbelieve
tobetheheart,soulandspineoftheAmericannation.Earningandkeepingaplaceinthiscommunityonthebasisofhonest
workisthefirstprincipleofJacksonianhonor,anditremainsaseriousinsulteventoimplythatamemberoftheAmerican
middleclassisnotpullinghisorherweightintheworld.

Jacksonianhonormustbeacknowledgedbytheoutsideworld.Oneisentitledto,anddemands,theappropriaterespect:
recognitionofrightsandjustclaims,acknowledgmentofonespersonaldignity.ManyAmericanswillstillfight,sometimes
withweapons,whentheyfeeltheyhavenotbeentreatedwiththeproperrespect.Butevenamongthelessviolent,
Americansstandontheirdignityandrights.Respectisalsodueage.ThosewhoknowJacksonianAmericaonlythroughits
veryinexactrepresentationsinthemediathinkoftheUnitedStatesasayouth-obsessed,age-neglectingsociety.Infact,
JacksonianAmericahonorsage.AndrewJacksonwassixty-onewhenhewaselectedpresidentforthefirsttimeRonald
Reaganwasseventy.Mostmoviestarslosetheirappealwithagethosewhoseappealstemsfromtheirabilitytoportrayand
embodyJacksonianvalueslikeJohnWayneonlybecomemorerevered.

Thesecondprincipleofthecodeisequality.Amongthosemembersofthefolkcommunitywhodopulltheirweight,there
isanabsoluteequalityofdignityandright.Noonehasarighttotelltheself-reliantJacksonianwhattosay,doorthink.Any
infringementonequalitywillbemetwithdefianceandresistance.Maleorfemale,theJacksonianis,andinsistson
remaining,independentofchurch,state,socialhierarchy,politicalpartiesandlaborunions.Jacksoniansmaychooseto
accepttheauthorityofaleaderormovementorfaith,butwillneveryieldtoanimposedauthority.Theyoungare
independentoftheold:"free,whiteandtwenty-one"isanoldJacksonianexpressionthecolorlinehassoftened,but
otherwisethesentimentisastrueasiteverwas.

Mrs.FannyTrollope(motherofnovelistAnthonyTrollope)hadthemisfortunetoleavehernativeBritaintospendtwoyears
intheUnitedStates.NexttoherrevulsionatthetwinAmericanhabitsofchewingtobaccoinpublicplacesandmissing
spittoonswiththefinishedproduct,shemostdespisedthepassionforequalityshefoundeverywhereshelooked."The
theoryofequality",Mrs.Trollopeobserved,

maybeverydaintilydiscussedbyEnglishgentlemeninaLondondining-room,whentheservant,havingplacedafresh
bottleofcoolwineonthetable,respectfullyshutsthedoor,andleavesthemtotheirwalnutsandtheirwisdombutitwillbe
foundlesspalatablewhenitpresentsitselfintheshapeofahard,greasypaw,andisclaimedinaccentsthatbreathelessof
freedomthanofonionsandwhiskey.Strong,indeed,mustbetheloveofequalityinanEnglishbreastifitcansurviveatour
throughtheUnion.

Thethirdprincipleisindividualism.TheJacksoniandoesnotjusthavetherighttoself-fulfillmentheorshehasadutyto
seekit.InJacksonianAmerica,everyonemustfindhisorherway:eachindividualmustchooseafaith,ornofaith,and
codeofconductbasedonconscienceandreason.TheJacksonianfeelsperfectlyfreetostrikeoffinanentirelynew
religiousdirection."Isincerelybelieve",wrotepoorMrs.Trollope,"thatifafire-worshiper,oranIndianBrahmin,wereto
cometotheUnitedStates,preparedtopreachandprayinEnglish,hewouldnotbelongwithoutaveryrespectable
congregation."Shedidntknowthehalfofit.

Despitethisindividualism,theJacksoniancodealsomandatesacceptanceofcertainsocialmoresandprinciples.Loyaltyto
family,raisingchildren"right",sexualdecency(heterosexualmonogamywhichcanbeserial)andhonestywithinthe
communityarevirtuesthatcommendthemselvestotheJacksonianspirit.Childrenofbothsexescanbewild,butboth
womenandmenmustbestrong.CorporalpunishmentiscustomaryandcommonJacksoniansfindobjectionstothistime-
honoredand(theyfeel)effectivemethodofdisciplineoutlandishandabsurd.Althoughwomenshouldbemorediscreet,
bothsexescansowwildoatsbeforemarriage.Afterit,toenjoytheesteemoftheircommunityacouplemustbeseentoput
theirchildrenswelfareaheadofpersonalgratification.
ThefourthpillarintheJacksonianhonorcodestruckMrs.Trollopeandothersasmoredishonorablethanhonorable,yetit
persistsnevertheless.Letuscallitfinancialesprit.WhiletheJacksonianbelievesinhardwork,heorshealsobelievesthat
creditisarightandthatmoney,especiallyborrowedmoney,islessasacredtrustthanameansforself-discoveryand
expression.AlthoughpreviousgenerationslackedthefacultiesforconsumercreditthatAmericansenjoyattheendofthe
twentiethcentury,manyAmericanshavealwaysassumedthattheyhavearighttospendmoneyontheirappearance,on
purchasesthataffirmtheirstatus.ThestrictJacksoniancodeofhonordoesnotenjoinwhatothersseeasfinancialprobity.
Whatitdemands,rather,isadaringandentrepreneurialspirit.Creditisseenlessasanobligationthanasanopportunity.
Jacksonianshavealwayssupportedloosemonetarypolicyandlooserbankruptcylaws.

Finally,courageisthecrowningandindispensablepartofthecode.Jacksoniansmustbereadytodefendtheirhonorin
greatthingsandsmall.Americansoughttostickupforwhattheybelieve.Inthenineteenthcentury,JacksonianAmericans
foughtduelslongafteraristocratsinEuropehadgiventhemup,andAmericanstodayremainfarmorelikelythanEuropeans
tosettlepersonalquarrelswithextremeandevendeadlyviolence.

JacksonianAmericasloveaffairwithweaponsis,ofcourse,thedespairoftherestofthecountry.Jacksonianculture
valuesfirearms,andthefreedomtoownandusethem.Therighttobeararmsisamarkofcivicandsocialequality,and
knowinghowtocareforfirearmsisanimportantpartoflife.Jacksoniansarearmedfordefense:ofthehomeandperson
againstrobbersagainstusurpationsofthefederalgovernmentandoftheUnitedStatesagainstitsenemies.Inonewarafter
another,Jacksonianshaveflockedtothecolors.Independentanddifficulttodiscipline,theyhaveneverthelessdemonstrated
magnificentfightingqualitiesineverycorneroftheworld.JacksonianAmericaviewsmilitaryserviceasasacredduty.
WhenHamiltonians,WilsoniansandJeffersoniansdodgedthedraftinVietnamorpurchasedexemptionsandsubstitutesin
earlierwars,Jacksonianssoldieredon,ifsometimesbitterlyandresentfully.Anhonorablepersonisreadytokillortodiefor
familyandflag.

Jacksoniansocietydrawsanimportantdistinctionbetweenthosewhobelongtothefolkcommunityandthosewhodonot.
Withinthatcommunity,amongthoseboundbythecodeandcapableofdischargingtheirresponsibilitiesunderit,
Jacksoniansareunitedinasocialcompact.Outsidethatcompactischaosanddarkness.Thecriminalwhocommitswhat,
intheJacksoniancode,constituteunforgivablesins(cold-bloodedmurder,rape,themurderorsexualabuseofachild,
murderorattemptedmurderofapeaceofficer)canjustlybekilledbythevictimsfamilies,colleaguesorbysocietyatlarge
withorwithouttheformalitiesoflaw.InmanypartsoftheUnitedStates,jurieswillnotconvictpoliceonalmostany
charge,norwilltheycondemnrevengekillersinparticularlyoutrageouscases.Therightofthecitizentodefendfamilyand
propertywithdeadlyforceisasacredoneaswell,alegacyfromcolonialandfrontiertimes.

Theabsoluteandevenbrutaldistinctiondrawnbetweenthemembersofthecommunityandoutsidershashadmassive
implicationsinAmericanlife.ThroughoutmostofAmericanhistorytheJacksoniancommunitywasonefromwhichmany
Americanswereautomaticallyandabsolutelyexcluded:Indians,Mexicans,Asians,AfricanAmericans,obvioussexual
deviantsandrecentimmigrantsofnon-Protestantheritagehaveallfeltthesting.Historically,thelawhasbeenhelplessto
protectsuchpeopleagainsteconomicoppression,socialdiscriminationandmobviolence,includingwidespreadlynchings.
Legislatorswouldnotenactlaws,andiftheydid,sheriffswouldnotarrest,prosecutorswouldnottry,jurieswouldnot
convict.

Thistellsussomethingveryimportant:throughoutmostofAmericanhistoryandtoalargeextenteventoday,equalrights
emergefromanddependonthispopularcultureofequalityandhonorratherthanflowoutofabstractprinciplesorwritten
documents.Themanysocialandlegaldisabilitiesstillsufferedinpracticebyunpopularminoritiesdemonstratethatthe
courtsandthestatutebooksstillenjoyonlyalimitedabilitytoprotectequalrightsintheteethofpopularfeelingandculture.

Evenso,JacksonianvaluesplayamajorroleinAfrican-Americanculture.Ifanything,thatrolehasincreasedwiththe
expandedpresenceofAfricanAmericansinallmilitaryranks.Theoftenblightedsociallandscapeoftheinnercityhasin
somecasesre-createdtheatmosphereandpracticesofAmericanfrontierlife.Inmanywaysthegangcultureofsomeinner
citiesresemblesthesocialatmosphereoftheJacksonianSouth,aswellastheharddrinking,womanizing,violentmale
cultureoftheMississippiinthedaysofDavyCrockettandMarkTwain.Braggingaboutonesphysicalandsexualprowess,
thewillingnesstoavengedisrespectwithdeadlyforce,atouchyinsistencethatoneisasgoodasanybodyelse:onceover
hisshockattheurbanlandscapeandtheracialissue,BillytheKidwouldfindhimselfsurprisinglyathomeinsuchan
environment.

ThedegreetowhichAfrican-AmericansocietyresemblesJacksoniancultureremainsoneofthecrucialandlargely
overlookedelementsinAmericanlife.Despitehistoricalexperiencesthatwouldhavecompletelyalienatedmanyethnic
minoritiesaroundtheworld,Americanblackpopularcultureremainsprofoundlyand,intimesofdanger,fiercely
patriotic.FromtheRevolutiononward,AfricanAmericanshavesoughtmoretoparticipateinAmericaswarsthanto
abstainfromthem,andthestrengthofpersonalandmilitaryhonorcodesinAfrican-Americanculturetodayremainsa
criticalfactorinassuringthecontinuedstrengthofAmericanmilitaryforcesintothetwenty-firstcentury.

TheunderlyingculturalunitybetweenAfricanAmericansandAnglo-JacksonianAmericashapedthecourseandensuredthe
successofthemoderncivilrightsmovement.MartinLutherKingandhisfollowersexhibitedexemplarypersonalcourage,
theirrhetoricwasdeeplyrootedinProtestantChristianity,andtherightstheyaskedforwerepreciselythosethatJacksonian
Americavaluesmostforitself.Further,theyscrupulouslyavoidedtheviolenttacticsthatwouldhavetriggeredan
unstoppableJacksonianresponse.
Althoughcultureschangeslowlyandmanyindividualslagbehind,thebulkofAmericanJacksonianopinionhasincreasingly
movedtorecognizetherightofcode-honoringmembersofminoritygroupstoreceivetherightsandprotectionsdueto
membersofthefolkcommunity.Thisnewand,onehopes,growingfeelingofrespectandtoleranceemphaticallydoesnot
extendtothose,minoritiesornot,whoarenotseenascode-honoringAmericans.Thosewhoviolateorrejectthecode
criminals,irresponsibleparents,drugaddictshavenotbenefitedfromthesofteningoftheJacksoniancolorline.

ThePoliticsoftheCulture

JacksonianforeignpolicyisrelatedtoJacksonianvaluesandgoalsindomesticpolicy.ForJacksonians,theprimegoalof
theAmericanpeopleisnotthecommercialandindustrialpolicysoughtbyHamiltonians,northeadministrativeexcellencein
supportofmoralvaluesthatWilsoniansseek,norJeffersonianliberty.Jacksoniansbelievethatthegovernmentshoulddo
everythinginitspowertopromotethewell-beingpolitical,moral,economicofthefolkcommunity.Anymeansare
permissibleintheserviceofthisend,aslongastheydonotviolatethemoralfeelingsorinfringeonthefreedomsthat
Jacksoniansbelieveareessentialintheirdailylives.

Jacksoniansareinstinctivelydemocraticandpopulist.HamiltoniansmistrustdemocracyWilsoniansdontapproveofthe
politicalroughandtumble.AndwhileJeffersonianssupportdemocracyinprinciple,theyremainconcernedthattyrannical
majoritiescanoverruleminorityrights.JacksoniansbelievethatthepoliticalandmoralinstinctsoftheAmericanpeopleare
soundandcanbetrusted,andthatthesimplerandmoredirecttheprocessofgovernmentis,thebetterwillbetheresults.
Ingeneral,whiletheotherschoolswelcometherepresentativecharacterofourdemocracy,Jacksonianstendtosee
representativeratherthandirectinstitutionsasnecessaryevils,andtobelievethatgovernmentsbreedcorruptionand
inefficiencythewaypicnicsbreedants.EveryadministrationwillbecorrupteveryCongressandlegislaturewillbe,to
someextent,theplaythingoflobbyists.Careerpoliticiansareinherentlyuntrustworthyifitspendsitslifebuzzingaround
theouthouse,itsprobablyafly.Jacksoniansseecorruptionashumannatureand,withincertainill-definedboundariesof
reasonandmoderation,aninevitableby-productofgovernment.

ItisperversionratherthancorruptionthatmosttroublesJacksonians:thepossibilitythatthepowersofgovernmentwillbe
turnedfromthenaturalandproperobjectofsupportingthewell-beingofthemajoritytowardoppressingthemajorityinthe
serviceofaneconomicorculturaleliteor,worsestill,intheinterestsofpowerfulforeigners.Insteadoftrying,however
ineptly,toservethepeople,havethepoliticiansturnedthegovernmentagainstthepeople?Aretheyservinglarge
commercialinterestswithmaliciousdesignsonthecommongood?Aretheyeitherbyineptitudeorwickednessserving
hostileforeigninterestsgivingallourindustrialmarketstotheJapanese,orallowingcommuniststostealoursecretsand
handthemtotheChinese?Aretheyfecklesslyfritteringawayhugesumsofmoneyonworthlessforeignaidprogramsthat
transferbillionstocorruptforeigndictators?

Jacksonianstolerateacertainamountofgovernmentperversion,butwhenitbecomesunbearable,theylooktoapopular
herotorestoregovernmenttoitsproperfunctions.ItwasinthiscapacitythatAndrewJacksonwaselectedtothe
presidency,andtherolehassincebeenreprisedbyanynumberofpoliticiansonboththelocalandthenationalstages.
RecentdecadeshaveseenRonaldReaganmastertherole,andGeorgeWallace,RossPerot,JesseVenturaandPatBuchanan
auditioningforit.TheJacksonianherodarestosaywhatthepeoplefeelanddefiestheentrenchedelites."Iwelcometheir
hatred",saidthearistocraticFranklinRoosevelt,inhisroleoftribuneofthepeople.Theheromaymakemistakes,buthe
willcommandtheunswervingloyaltyofJacksonianAmericasolongashisheartisperceivedtobeintherightplace.

WhenitcomestoBigGovernment,Jeffersoniansworrymoreaboutthemilitarythanaboutanythingelse.Butfor
Jacksonians,spendingmoneyonthemilitaryisoneofthebestthingsgovernmentcando.Yes,thePentagonisinefficient
andcontractorsarestealingthegovernmentblind.ButbydefinitiontheworkthattheDefenseDepartmentdoesdefending
thenationisaservicetotheJacksonianmiddleclass.Yes,thePentagonshouldspenditsmoneymorecarefully,butletus
notthrowthebabyoutwiththebathwater.Storiesaboutwelfareabusersinlimousinesandforeignaidswindlesgenerate
moreangeramongJacksoniansthandostoriesof$600hammersatthePentagon.

Theprofoundlypopulistworld-viewofJacksonianAmericanscontributestooneofthemostimportantelementsintheir
politics:thebeliefthatwhileproblemsarecomplicated,solutionsaresimple.FalseidolsaremanytheTrueGodisOne.
JacksoniansbelievethatGordianKnotsaretheretobecut.Inpubliccontroversies,thesidethatisalwaysgivingyou
reasonswhysomethingcantbedone,andisendlesslytellingyouthatthepopularviewisntsufficiently"sophisticated"or
"nuanced"thatisthesidethatdoesntwantyoutoknowwhatitisdoing,anditisnottobetrusted.Ifpoliticianshave
honestintentions,theywilltellyoustraightupwhattheyplantodo.Ifitsagoodidea,youwilllikeitassoonasthey
explainthewholepackage.Formostoftheotherschools,"complex"isapositivetermwhenappliedeithertopoliciesorto
situationsforJacksoniansitisanegative.RonaldReaganbrilliantlyexploitedthis.AsinthecaseofAndrewJackson
himself,ReagansownintuitiveapproachtotheworldledhimtobeliefsandpoliciesthatappealedtoJacksonianopinion
rightfromthestart.

Instinct,NotIdeology

ThosewholiketocastAmericanforeignpolicyasanunhealthymixofignorance,isolationismandtrigger-happycowboy
diplomacyareoftenthinkingabouttheJacksonianpopulisttradition.Thattraditionisstrongeramongthemassofordinary
peoplethanitisamongtheelite.Itismorestronglyentrenchedintheheartlandthanoneitherofthetwocoasts.Ithasbeen
historicallyassociatedwithwhiteProtestantmalesofthelowerandmiddleclassestodaytheleastfashionableelementin
theAmericanpoliticalmix.

AlthoughtherearemanylearnedandthoughtfulJacksonians,includingthosewhohavemadedistinguishedcareersinpublic
service,itiscertainlytruethattheJacksonianphilosophyisembracedbymanypeoplewhoknowverylittleaboutthewider
world.Withthemitisaninstinctratherthananideologyaculturallyshapedsetofbeliefsandemotionsratherthanasetof
ideas.ButideasandpolicyproposalsthatresonatewithJacksoniancorevaluesandinstinctsenjoywidesupportandcan
usuallyfindinfluentialsupportersinthepolicyprocess.

SoinfluentialisJacksonianopinionintheformationofAmericanforeignpolicythatanyonelackingafeelforitwillfind
muchofAmericanforeignpolicybafflingandopaque.Foreignersinparticularhavealternatelyoverestimatedand
underestimatedAmericandeterminationbecausetheyfailedtograspthestructureofJacksonianopinionandinfluence.Yet
Jacksonianviewsonforeignaffairsarerelativelystraightforward,andoncetheyareunderstood,Americanforeignpolicy
becomesmuchlessmysterious.

Tobeginwith,althoughtheotherschoolsoftencongratulatethemselvesontheirsuperiorsophisticationandappreciationfor
complexity,JacksonianismprovidesthebasisinAmericanlifeforwhatmanyscholarsandpractitionerswouldconsiderthe
mostsophisticatedofallapproachestoforeignaffairs:realism.InthisitstandswithJeffersonianism,whilebeingdeeply
suspiciousofthe"globalmeliorist"elementsfound,indifferentforms,inbothWilsonianandHamiltonianforeignpolicy
ideas.Often,JeffersoniansandJacksonianswillstandtogetherinoppositiontohumanitarianinterventions,orinterventions
madeinsupportofWilsonianorHamiltonianworldorderinitiatives.However,whileJeffersoniansespouseaminimalist
realismunderwhichtheUnitedStatesseekstodefineitsinterestsasnarrowlyaspossibleandtodefendthoseinterestswith
anabsoluteminimumofforce,Jacksoniansapproachforeignpolicyinaverydifferentspiritoneinwhichhonor,concern
forreputation,andfaithinmilitaryinstitutionsplayamuchgreaterrole.

Jacksonianrealismisbasedontheverysharpdistinctioninpopularfeelingbetweentheinsideofthefolkcommunityand
thedarkworldwithout.Jacksonianpatriotismisnotadoctrinebutanemotion,likeloveofonesfamily.Thenationisan
extensionofthefamily.MembersoftheAmericanfolkareboundtogetherbyhistory,cultureandacommonmorality.Ata
verybasiclevel,afeelingofkinshipexistsamongAmericans:wehaveonesetofrulesfordealingwitheachotheranda
verydifferentsetfortheoutsideworld.UnlikeWilsonians,whohopeultimatelytoconverttheHobbesianworldof
internationalrelationsintoaLockeanpoliticalcommunity,Jacksoniansbelievethatitisnaturalandinevitablethatnational
politicsandnationallifewillworkondifferentprinciplesfrominternationalaffairs.ForJacksonians,theworldcommunity
Wilsonianswanttobuildisnotmerelyamoralimpossibilitybutamonstrosity.AnAmericanforeignpolicythat,for
example,takestaxmoneyfrommiddle-classAmericanstogivetoacorruptandincompetentdictatorshipoverseasis
nonsenseithurtsAmericansanddoeslittleforBorrioboola-Gha.Countries,likefamilies,shouldtakecareoftheirownif
everybodydidthatwewouldallbebetteroff.Charity,meanwhile,shouldbelefttoprivateinitiativesandprivatefunds
JacksonianAmericaisnotungenerousbutitlacksallconfidenceinthegovernmentsabilitytoadministercharity,eitherat
homeorabroad.

Giventhemoralgapbetweenthefolkcommunityandtherestoftheworldandgiventhatothercountriesarebelievedto
havepatrioticandcommunalfeelingsoftheirown,feelingsthatsimilarlyhardenoncetheboundaryofthefolkcommunity
isreachedJacksoniansbelievethatinternationallifeisandwillremainbothanarchicandviolent.TheUnitedStatesmust
bevigilantandstronglyarmed.Ourdiplomacymustbecunning,forcefulandnomorescrupulousthananybodyelses.At
times,wemustfightpre-emptivewars.Thereisabsolutelynothingwrongwithsubvertingforeigngovernmentsor
assassinatingforeignleaderswhosebadintentionsareclear.Thus,Jacksoniansaremorelikelytotaxpoliticalleaderswitha
failuretoemployvigorousmeasuresthantoworryaboutthenicetiesofinternationallaw.

Indeed,ofallthemajorcurrentsinAmericansociety,Jacksonianshavetheleastregardforinternationallawand
internationalinstitutions.Theyprefertheruleofcustomtothewrittenlaw,andthatisastrueintheinternationalsphereasit
isinpersonalrelationsathome.Jacksoniansbelievethatthereisanhonorcodeininternationallifeastherewasinclan
warfareintheborderlandsofEnglandandthosewholivebythecodewillbetreatedunderit.Butthosewhoviolatethe
codewhocommitterroristactsinpeacetime,forexampleforfeititsprotectionanddeservenoconsideration.

ManystudentsofAmericanforeignpolicy,bothhereandabroad,dismissJacksoniansasignorantisolationistsandvulgar
patriots,but,again,therealityismorecomplex,andtheirapproachtotheworldandtowarismorecloselygroundedin
classicalrealismthanmanyrecognize.JacksoniansdonotbelievethattheUnitedStatesmusthaveanunambiguouslymoral
reasonforfighting.Infact,theytendtoseparatetheissuesofmoralityandwarmoreclearlythanmanymembersofthe
foreignpolicyestablishment.

TheGulfWarwasapopularwarinJacksoniancirclesbecausethedefenseofthenationsoilsupplystruckachordwith
Jacksonianopinion.Thatopinionwhichhasnotforgottentheoilshortagesandpricehikesofthe1970sclearly
considersstabilityoftheoilsupplyavitalnationalinterestandispreparedtofighttodefendit.Theatrocitypropaganda
aboutallegedIraqibarbarismsinKuwaitdidnotinspireJacksonianstowar,andneitherdidlegalisticargumentsaboutU.S.
obligationsundertheUNChartertodefendamemberstatefromaggression.Thoseareusefulargumentstoscrew
Wilsoniancouragetothestickingplace,buttheymeanlittleforJacksonians.HadtherebeennoUNCharterandhadKuwait
beenevenmorecorruptandrepressivethatitis,JacksonianopinionwouldstillhavesupportedtheGulfWar.Itwouldhave
supportedafull-scalewarwithIranoverthe1980hostagecrisis,anditwilltakeanequallyhawkishstancetowardany
futurethreattoperceivedU.S.interestsinthePersianGulfregion.

Intheabsenceofaclearlydefinedthreattothenationalinterest,Jacksonianopinionismuchlessaggressive.Ithasnot,for
example,beenenthusiasticabouttheU.S.interventioninthecaseofBosnia.Theretheevidenceofunspeakableatrocities
wasmuchgreaterthaninKuwait,andthelegalcaseforinterventionwasasstrong.YetJacksonianopinionsawnothreatto
theinterests,asitunderstoodthem,oftheUnitedStates,andWilsoniansweretheonlysegmentofthepopulationthatwas
activelyeagerforwar.

InWorldWarIittooktheZimmermannTelegramandtherepeatedsinkingofAmericanshipstoconvinceJacksonian
opinionthatwarwasnecessary.InWorldWarII,neithertheRapeofNankingnortheatrocitiesofNaziruleinEuropedrew
theUnitedStatesintothewar.TheattackonPearlHarbordid.

ToengageJacksoniansinsupportoftheColdWaritwasnecessarytoconvincethemthatMoscowwasengagedinafar-
reachingandsystematiccampaignforworlddomination,andthatthiscampaignwouldsucceedunlesstheUnitedStates
engagedinalong-termdefensiveeffortwiththehelpofalliesaroundtheworld.Thatinvolvedacertainoverstatementof
bothSovietintentionsandcapabilities,butthatisbesidethepresentpoint.OnceJacksonianopinionwasconvincedthatthe
SovietthreatwasrealandthattheColdWarwasnecessary,itstayedconvinced.PopulistAmericanopinionacceptedthe
burdensitimposedandworriedonlythatthegovernmentwouldfailtoprosecutetheColdWarwiththenecessaryvigor.No
oneshouldmistaketheimportanceofthisstrongandconstantsupport.Despitethefrequentcomplaintsbycommentators
andpolicymakersthattheAmericanpeopleare"isolationist"and"uninterestedinforeignaffairs",theyhavemadeandwill
makeenormousfinancialandpersonalsacrificesifconvincedthattheseareinthenationsvitalinterests.

Thismasspopularpatriotism,andthemartialspiritbehindit,givestheUnitedStatesimmenseadvantagesininternational
affairs.Aftertwoworldwars,noEuropeannationhasshownthesamewillingnesstopaythepriceinbloodandtreasure
foraglobalpresence.Mostofthe"developed"nationsfinditdifficulttomaintainlarge,high-qualityfightingforces.Notall
ofthemartialpatriotismintheUnitedStatescomesoutoftheworldofJacksonianpopulism,butwithoutthattradition,the
UnitedStateswouldbehardpressedtomaintainthekindofinternationalmilitarypresenceitnowhas.

Pessimism

WhileinmanyrespectsJacksonianAmericanshaveanoptimisticoutlook,thereisalargeandimportantsenseinwhichthey
arepessimistic.WhateverthetheologicalviewsofindividualJacksoniansmaybe,JacksonianculturebelievesinOriginalSin
anddoesnotaccepttheEnlightenmentsbeliefintheperfectibilityofhumannature.Asacorollary,Jacksoniansarepre-
millennialist:theydonotbelievethatutopiaisjustaroundthecorner.Infact,theytendtobelievethereversetheanti-
ChristwillgetherebeforeJesusdoes,andhumanhistorywillendincatastropheandflames,followedbytheDayof
Judgment.

Thisisnoidletheologicalconcept.Beliefintheapproachofthe"EndTimes"andthe"GreatTribulation"conceptsrooted
incertaininterpretationsofJewishandChristianprophetictextshasbeenapowerfulforceinAmericanlifefromcolonial
times.JacksoniansbelievethatneitherWilsoniansnorHamiltoniansnoranybodyelsewilleversucceedinbuildingapeaceful
worldorder,andthattheonlyworldorderwearelikelytogetwillbeabadone.Nomatterhowmuchmoneyweship
overseas,andnomatterhowcleverlythedevelopmentbureaucratsspendit,itwillnotcreatepeaceonearth.Plansfor
universaldisarmamentandworldcourtsofjusticefounderonthesamerockofhistoricalskepticism.Jacksoniansjusttend
nottobelievethatanyofthesethingswilldomuchgood.

Infact,theythinktheymaydoharm.Linkedtotheskepticismaboutman-madeimitationsoftheKingdomofGodisadeep
apprehensionabouttheriseofanevilworldorder.Intheologicalterms,thisisareferencetothefearoftheanti-Christ,
who,manycommentatorsaffirm,ispredictedinScripturetocomewiththeappearanceofanangeloflightacharismatic
politicalfigurewhoofferswhatlookslikeaplanforworldpeaceandorder,butwhichisactuallyaSatanicsnareintendedto
deceive.

Formostofitshistory,JacksonianAmericabelievedthattheRomanCatholicChurchwasthechiefemissaryofSatanon
earth,abeliefthathadaccompaniedthefirstAmericansontheirjourneyfromBritain.FearofCatholicismgradually
subsided,butduringtheColdWartheKremlinreplacedtheVaticanasthecenterforAmericanpopularfearsaboutthe
forcesofevilintheworld.TheinternationalcommunistconspiracycapturedtheoldstockAmericanpopularimagination
becauseitfitculturaltemplatesestablishedinthedaysoftheLongParliamentandtheEnglishCivilWar.Descendantsof
immigrantsfromEasternEuropehadtheirownculturaldispositionstowardconspiracythinking,plus,inmanycases,a
deephatredandfearofRussia.

Thefearofaruthless,formidableenemyabroadwhoenjoysapowerfulfifthcolumnintheUnitedStatesincludinghigh-
rankingofficialswhoserveiteitherforgreedoroutofmisguidedideologicalzealisolderthantheRepublic.Duringthe
ColdWar,this"paranoidtradition"inAmericanlifestayedmostlyfocusedontheKremlinthoughorganizationslikethe
JohnBirchSocietysawominouslinksbetweentheKremlinandtheAmericanEstablishment.Theparanoidstreakwas,if
anything,helpfulinsustainingpopularsupportforColdWarstrategy.AftertheColdWar,itisprovingmoredifficultto
integrateintoeffectiveAmericanpolicy.Tosomedegree,thechiefobjectofpopularconcerninpost-ColdWarAmericais
theHamiltoniandreamofafullyintegratedglobaleconomy,combinedwiththeWilsoniandreamofglobalpoliticalorderthat
endsthenightmareofwarringnation-states.GeorgeBushscallfora"NewWorldOrder"hadadistinctlyOrwellian
connotationtotheJacksonianear.ChristianCoalitionfounderPatRobertson,inhisbookTheNewWorldOrder(1991),
tracesthecallforthatOrdertoaSatanicconspiracyconsciouslyimplementedbythepillarsoftheAmericanEstablishment.

ThefearthattheEstablishment,linkedtoitscounterpartinBritainand,throughBritain,toallthecorruptmovementsand
elitesoftheOldWorld,isrelentlesslyplottingtodestroyAmericanlibertyisanoldbutstillpotentone.TheTrilateral
Commission,theCouncilonForeignRelations,theBilderbergers,theBavarianIlluminati,theRothschilds,theRockefellers:
thesenamesandothersechothroughalargeandshadowyworldofconspiracytheoriesandclassresentment.Should
seriouslybadeconomictimescome,thereisalwaysthepotentialthat,witheffectiveleadership,theparanoidelementinthe
Jacksonianworldcouldridepopularangerandpanicintopower.

Honor

AnotheraspectofJacksonianforeignpolicyistheaforementioneddeepsenseofnationalhonorandacorrespondingneedto
liveuptoinactualityandintheeyesofothersthedemandsofanhonorcode.Thepoliticalimportanceofthiscode
shouldnotbeunderestimatedAmericansarecapableofgoingtowaroverissuesofnationalhonor.TheWarof1812isan
exampleofJacksoniansentimentforcingawaroutofresentmentovercontinualnationalhumiliationsatthehandofBritain.
(ThosewhosuffereddirectlyfromBritishinterferencewithAmericanshipping,themerchants,weretotallyagainstthe
war.)Attheendofthetwentiethcentury,itisnationalhonor,morethananyvitalstrategicinterest,thatwouldrequirethe
UnitedStatestofulfillitspromisestoprotectTaiwanfrominvasion.

TheperceptionofnationalhonorasavitalinteresthasalwaysbeenawedgeissuedrivingJacksoniansandJeffersonians
apart.TheJeffersonianpeacepolicyintheNapoleonicWarsbecameimpossibleastheWarHawksgrewstronger.Thesame
patternrecurredintheCarteradministration,duringwhichgatheringJacksonianfuryandimpatienceatCarters
JeffersonianapproachestotheSovietUnion,Panama,IranandNicaraguaignitedareactionthatforcedthePresidentto
reversehisbasicpolicyorientationandendedbydrivinghimfromoffice.WhatJeffersoniandiplomacywelcomesas
measurestoheadoffwaroftenlooktoJacksonianslikepusillanimousweakness.

OncetheUnitedStatesextendsasecurityguaranteeormakesapromise,wearerequiredtohonorthatpromisecomewhat
may.Jacksonianopinion,whichinthenatureofthingshadlittlefaiththatSouthVietnamcouldbuilddemocracyorthat
therewasanythingconcretethereofinteresttotheaverageAmerican,wassteadfastinsupportofthewarthoughnotof
thestrategybecausewehadgivenourwordtodefendSouthVietnam.DuringthisyearswarinKosovo,Jacksonian
opinionwasresolutelyagainstittobeginwith.However,onceU.S.honorwasengaged,Jacksoniansbegantourgea
strongerwarfightingstrategyincludingtheuseofgroundtroops.Itisabadthingtofightanunnecessarywar,butitis
inexcusableanddishonorabletoloseoneonceithasbegun.

ReputationisasimportantininternationallifeasitistotheindividualhonorofJacksonians.HonorintheJacksonian
imaginationisnotsimplywhatonefeelsoneselftobeontheinsideitisalsoaquestionoftherespectanddignityone
commandsintheworldatlarge.Jacksonianopinionissympathetictotheideathatourreputationwhetherforfairdealing
orcheating,toughnessorweaknesswillshapethewaythatotherstreatus.Therefore,atstakeinagivencrisisisnot
simplywhetherwesatisfyourownideasofwhatisdueourhonor.Ourbehaviorandtheresolutionthatweobtainmust
enhanceourreputationourprestigeintheworldatlarge.

Warfighting

JacksonianAmericahasclearideasabouthowwarsshouldbefought,howenemiesshouldbetreated,andwhatshould
happenwhenthewarsareover.Itrecognizestwokindsofenemiesandtwokindsoffighting:honorableenemiesfighta
cleanfightandareentitledtobeopposedinthesamewaydishonorableenemiesfightdirtywarsandinthatcaseallrules
areoff.

Anhonorableenemyisonewhodeclareswarbeforebeginningcombatfightsaccordingtorecognizedrulesofwar,
honoringsuchtraditionsastheflagoftrucetreatsciviliansinoccupiedterritorywithdueconsiderationandacrucial
pointrefrainsfromthemistreatmentofprisonersofwar.Thosewhosurrendershouldbetreatedwithgenerosity.
Adversarieswhohonorthecodewillbenefitfromitsprotections,whilethosewhowantadirtyfightwillgetone.

ThispatternwasveryclearlyillustratedintheCivilWar.TheArmyofthePotomacandtheArmyofNorthernVirginiafaced
oneanotherthroughoutthewar,andfoughtsomeofthebloodiestbattlesofthenineteenthcentury,includinglongboutsof
trenchwarfare.YetRobertE.Leeandhismenwerepermittedanhonorablesurrenderandreturnedunmolestedtotheir
homeswiththeirhorsesandpersonalsidearms.OneConfederate,however,wasexecutedafterthewar:CaptainHenry
Wirz,whowasconvictedofmistreatingUnionprisonersofwaratCampSumter,Georgia.

AlthoughAmericanIndiansoftenwonrespectfortheirextraordinarypersonalcourage,Jacksonianopiniongenerally
consideredIndianstobedishonorableopponents.American-Indianwarriorcodes(alsohonorbased)permittedsurprise
attacksonciviliansandthetortureofprisonersofwar.Thiswasallpartofacomplexsystemoflimitedwarfareamongthe
tribalnations,butJacksonianfrontierdwellerswerenotstudentsofmulticulturaldiversity.Intheirview,Indianwartactics
werethesignofadishonorable,unscrupulousandcowardlyformofwar.AngeratsuchtacticsledJacksonianstoabandon
therestraintsimposedbytheirownwarcodes,andtheuglyskirmishesalongthefrontierspiraledintoaseriesofgenocidal
conflictsinwhicheachsidefelttheotherwasviolatingeverystandardofhumaneconduct.

TheJapanese,anotherpeoplewithahighlydevelopedwarcodebasedonpersonalhonor,hadthemisfortunetocreatethe
samekindofimpressiononAmericanJacksonians.ThesneakattackonPearlHarbor,thegrossmistreatmentofAmerican
pows(theBataanDeathMarch),andJapanesefightingtacticsallservedtoenrageAmericanJacksoniansandledthemto
seethePacificenemyasruthless,dishonorableandinhuman.Allcontributedtothevitriolicintensityofcombatinthe
Pacifictheater.Bythesummerof1945,Americanpopularopinionwasfullypreparedtocountenanceinvasionofthe
Japanesehomeislands,eveniftheyweredefendedwiththetenacity(andindifferencetocivilianlives)thatmarkedthe
fightingonOkinawa.

Giventhisbackground,theAmericanswhodecidedtousetheatomicbombmayhavebeencorrectthattheuseofthe
weaponsavedlives,andnotonlyofAmericansoldiers.Inanycase,Jacksonianshadnocompunctionaboutusingthe
bomb.GeneralCurtisLeMay(subsequentlythe1968runningmateofJacksonianpopulistthird-partycandidateGeorge
Wallace)succinctlysummedupthisattitudetowardfightingadishonorableopponent:"Illtellyouwhatwarisabout",said
Lemayinaninterview,"Youvegottokillpeople,andwhenyouvekilledenoughtheystopfighting."

Bycontrast,althoughtheGermanscommittedbestialcrimesagainstciviliansandpows(especiallySovietpows),their
behaviortowardthearmedforcesoftheUnitedStateswasmoreinaccordancewithAmericanideasaboutmilitaryhonor.
Indeed,GeneralErwinRommelisconsideredsomethingofamilitaryheroamongAmericanJacksonians:anhonorable
enemy.Still,iftheGermansavoidedexposuretotheutmostfuryofanarousedAmericanpeopleatwar,theywere
neverthelesssubjectedtothefull,ferociousscopeoftheviolencethatafullyarousedAmericanpublicopinionwillsustain
andeveninsistupon.

ForthefirstJacksonianruleofwaristhatwarsmustbefoughtwithallavailableforce.Theuseoflimitedforceisdeeply
repugnant.Jacksoniansseewarasaswitchthatiseither"on"or"off."Theydonotliketheideaofviolenceonadimmer
switch.Eitherthestakesareimportantenoughtofightforinwhichcaseyoushouldfightwitheverythingyouhaveor
theyarenot,inwhichcaseyoushouldmindyourownbusinessandstayhome.Toengageinalimitedwarisoneofthe
costliestpoliticaldecisionsanAmericanpresidentcanmakeneitherTrumannorJohnsonsurvivedit.

ThesecondkeyconceptinJacksonianthoughtaboutwaristhatthestrategicandtacticalobjectiveofAmericanforcesisto
imposeourwillontheenemywithasfewAmericancasualtiesaspossible.TheJacksoniancodeofmilitaryhonordoesnot
turnwarintosport.Itisadeadlyandearnestbusiness.Thisisnotthechivalryofamedievaljoust,oroftheorderly
battlefieldsofeighteenth-centuryEurope.Onedoesnottakeriskswithsoldierslivestogivea"fairfight."Somesectorsof
opinionintheUnitedStatesandabroadwerebothshockedandappalledduringtheGulfandKosovowarsoverthewayin
whichAmericanforcesattackedtheenemyfromtheairwithoutengaginginmuchgroundcombat.The"turkeyshoot"
qualityoftheclosingmomentsofthewaragainstIraqcreatedaparticularlypainfulimpression.Jacksoniansdismisssuch
thoughtsoutofhand.ItistheobviousdutyofAmericanleaderstocrushtheforcesarrayedagainstusasquickly,
thoroughlyandprofessionallyaspossible.

Jacksonianopiniontakesabroadviewofthepermissibletargetsinwar.Againreflectingaveryoldculturalheritage,
Jacksoniansbelievethattheenemyswilltofightisalegitimatetargetofwar,evenifthisinvolvesAmericanforcesin
attacksoncivilianlives,establishmentsandproperty.Thecolonialwars,theRevolutionandtheIndianwarsallgiveample
evidenceofthisview,andGeneralWilliamTecumsehShermansMarchtotheSeashowedthedegreetowhichthetargeting
ofcivilianmoralethroughsystematicviolenceanddestructioncould,towidespreadpopularapplause,becomean
acknowledgedwarfightingstrategy,evenwhenfightingonesownrebelliouskindred.

Probablyasaresultoffrontierwarfare,Jacksonianopinioncametobelievethatitwasbreakingthespiritoftheenemy
nation,ratherthanthefightingpoweroftheenemysarmies,thatwasthechiefobjectofwarfare.Itwasnotenoughto
defeatatribeinbattleonehadto"pacify"thetribe,toconvinceitutterlythatresistancewasandalwayswouldbefutileand
destructive.Forthistohappen,thewarhadtogototheenemyshome.Thevillageshadtobeburned,foodsupplies
destroyed,civilianshadtobekilled.Fromthetiniestchildtothemostreveredoftheelderlysages,everyoneintheenemy
nationhadtounderstandthatfurtherarmedresistancetothewilloftheAmericanpeoplewhateverthatmightbewas
simplynotanoption.

Withthedevelopmentofairpowerand,later,ofnuclearweapons,thislong-standingculturalacceptanceofciviliantargeting
assumednewimportance.WilsoniansandJeffersoniansprotestedevenatthetimeagainstthedeliberateterrorbombingof
civiliantargetsintheSecondWorldWar.Since1945therehasbeenmuchagonizedreviewoftheAmericandecisiontouse
atomicbombsagainstHiroshimaandNagasaki.Noneofthishandwringinghasmadetheslightestimpressiononthe
Jacksonianviewthatthebombingswereself-evidentlyjustifiedandright.DuringboththeVietnamandKoreanconflicts,
therewereseriousproposalsinJacksonianquarterstousenuclearweaponswhyelsehavethem?Theonlyreason
Jacksonianopinionhaseveracceptednottousenuclearweaponsistheprospectofretaliation.

Jacksoniansalsohavestrongideasabouthowwarsshouldend."Thereisnosubstituteforvictory",asGeneralMacArthur
said,andtheonlysuresignofvictoryisthe"unconditionalsurrender"ofenemyforces.JustasJacksonianopinionresents
limitsonAmericanweaponsandtactics,italsoresentsstoppingshortofvictory.Unconditionalsurrenderisnotalwaysa
literalandabsolutedemand.TheConfederatesurrendersin1865includedgenerousprovisionsforthelosingarmies.The
JapanesewereassuredafterthePotsdamDeclarationthat,whiletheUnitedStatesinsistedonunconditionalsurrenderand
acceptanceoftheterms,theycouldkeepthe"emperorsystem"afterthewar.However,thereisonlysomuchgiveinthe
idea:allresistancemustceaseU.S.forcesmustmakeanunopposedentryintoandoccupationofthesurrenderingcountry
thepoliticalobjectivesofthewarmustbeconcededintoto.

WheninthelaterstagesofWorldWarIItheJointChiefsofStaffdiscussedtheprospectofaninvasionofKyushu,the
southernmostofthemajorJapanesehomeislands,AdmiralWilliamLeahyprojected268,000Americanswouldbekilledor
woundedoutofaninvasionforceof766,000.TheinvasionofthechiefislandofHonshu,tentativelyplannedforthespring
of1946,wouldhavebeensignificantlyworse.WhileprojectedcasualtyfiguresliketheseledanumberofAmericanofficials
toargueformodificationoftheunconditionalsurrenderformula,SecretaryofStateJamesM.ByrnestoldTrumanthathe
wouldbe"crucified"ifheretreatedfromthisformulaonethatreceivedastandingovationwhenTrumanrepeateditto
Congressinhisfirstaddressaspresident.Trumanagreedwisely.HiseffortstowagelimitedwarinKoreacosthimre-
electionin1952.Similarly,LyndonJohnsonsinabilitytofightunlimitedwarforunconditionalsurrenderinVietnamcosthim
thepresidencyin1968JimmyCartersinabilitytoresolvetheIranianhostagecrisiswithaclear-cutvictorydestroyedany
hopehehadofwinningthe1980electionandGeorgeBushsrefusaltoinsistonanunconditionalsurrenderinIraqmay
havecontributedtohisdefeatinthe1992presidentialelection.ForAmericanpresidents,MacArthurisright:thereisno
substituteforvictory.

InVictory,Magnanimity

Oncetheenemyhasmadeanunconditionalsurrender,thehonorcodedemandsthathebetreatedmagnanimously.Grantfed
Leesmenfromhisarmysupplies,whileShermansinitialagreementwithGeneralJohnstonwassogenerousthatitwas
overruledinWashington.AmericanoccupationtroopsinbothGermanyandJapanveryquicklylosttheirrancoragainstthe
defeatedfoes.Notalwaysdisinterestedly,GIsinEuropewerepassingoutchocolatebars,cigarettesandnylonstockings
beforethegunsfellsilent.ThebitterracialantagonismthatcoloredthePacificWarrapidlyfadedafterit.NeitherinJapan
norinGermanydidAmericanoccupiersbehaveliketheSovietoccupationforcesineasternGermany,wherelooting,rape
andmurderwerestillwidespreadmonthsafterthesurrender.

InbothGermanyandJapan,theUnitedStateshadoriginallyenvisionedaharshoccupationstrategywithmassesofwar
crimestrialsandstricteconomiccontrolssomewhatakintotheoriginalRadicalRepublicanprograminthepost-CivilWar
South.Butinallthreecases,thevictoriousAmericansquicklylosttheappetiteforvengeanceagainstallbutthemost
egregiousoffendersagainstthecode.Whateverwassaidintheheatofbattle,eventhemostRadicalReconstructionists
envisionedtheSouthsultimatereturntoitsoldpoliticalstatusandrights.Inthesameway,soonaftertheshootingstopped
inWorldWarII,AmericanpublicopinionsimplyassumedthattheultimategoalwasforGermanyandJapantoresumetheir
placesinthecommunityofnations.

Noteverybodyqualifiesforsuchlenienttreatmentunderthecode.Inparticular,repeatoffenderswillsufferincreasingly
severepenalties.AlthoughmanyAmericanswererevoltedbytheharshandgreedypeaceforcedonMexico(Grantfeltthat
theCivilWarwasinpartGodspunishmentforAmericancrimesagainstMexico),SantaAnnaslongrecordofperfidyand
crueltybuiltpopularsupportbothfortheMexicanWarandthepeace.Thepatternoffrontierwarfare,inwhichfactionsina
particulartribemightrenewhostilitiesinviolationofanagreement,helpedsolidifytheJacksonianbeliefthattherewasno
pointinmakingorkeepingtreatieswith"savages."

Intheinternationalconflictsofthetwentiethcentury,itisnoteworthythattherehavebeennomajorpopulistbacklashes
callingforharshertreatmentofdefeatedenemies.Butwhenforeignenemieslackthegoodtastetosurrender,Jacksonian
opinioncarriesgrudgesthatlastfordecades.Someoftherootsofanti-ChinafeelingintheUnitedStatestodaydatebackto
mistreatmentofAmericanprisonersduringtheKoreanWar.U.S.foodandenergyaidtoNorthKorea,indeedany
engagementatallwiththatdefiantregime,remainsprofoundlyunpopularforthesamereason.ThemullahsofIran,the
assassinsofLibyaandFidelCastrohaveneverbeenforgivenbyJacksonianopinionfortheircrimesagainstanddefianceof
theUnitedStates.Neitherwilltheybe,untiltheyacknowledgetheirsins.

InthecaseoftheColdWar,thefailureoftheSovietUniontomakeaformalsurrender,orfortheconflicttoendinanyway
thatcouldbemarkedasV-USSRDay,hasgreatlycomplicatedAmericanpolicytowardpost-ColdWarRussia.TheSoviet
UnionlosttheColdWarabsolutelyandunconditionally,andRussiahassufferedeconomicandsocialdevastation
comparabletothatsustainedbyanylosingpowerinthegreatwarsofthecentury.Butbecauseitneversurrendered,
Jacksonianopinionneverquiteshiftedintomagnanimitymode.Wilsonians,HamiltoniansandJeffersoniansallfavored
reconstructionsupportandaidbutwithoutJacksonianconcurrencetheAmericaneffortwassharplylimited.Advicewas
doledoutwithafreeandgeneroushand,butaidwasextendedmoregrudgingly.

ThisisfarfromacompleteaccountofJacksonianvaluesandbeliefsastheyaffecttheUnitedStates.Ineconomicaswell
asdefensepolicy,forexample,Jacksonianideasarebothinfluentialandunique.Convincedthattheprimepurposeof
governmentistodefendthelivingstandardsofthemiddleclass,Jacksonianopinionisinstinctivelyprotectionist,seeking
tradeprivilegesforU.S.goodsabroadandhopingtowithholdthoseprivilegesfromforeignexports.Jacksonianswereonce
farmerstodaytheytendtobeserviceandindustrialworkers.TheyseethepreservationofAmericanjobs,evenatthecost
ofsomeunspecifieddegreeof"economicefficiency",asthenaturalandobvioustaskofthefederalgovernmentstrade
policy.JacksonianscanbeconvincedthataparticulartradeagreementoperatestothebenefitofAmericanworkers,but
theyneedtobeconvincedoverandoveragain.Theyarealsoskeptical,onbothculturalandeconomicgrounds,ofthe
benefitsofimmigration,whichisseenasendangeringthecohesionofthefolkcommunityandintroducingnew,low-wage
competitionforjobs.NeitherresultstrikesJacksonianopinionasasuitableoutcomeforadesirablegovernmentpolicy.

TheIndispensableElement

JacksonianinfluenceinAmericanhistoryhasbeenandremainsenormous.TheUnitedStatescannotwageamajor
internationalwarwithoutJacksoniansupportonceengaged,politicianscannotsafelyendthewarexceptonJacksonian
terms.Fromtheperspectiveofmembersofotherschoolsandmanyforeignobservers,whenJacksoniansentimentfavorsa
givencourseofaction,theUnitedStateswillmovetoofar,toofastandtoounilaterallyinpursuitofitsgoals.When
Jacksoniansentimentisstronglyopposed,theUnitedStateswillbeseentomovetooslowlyornotatall.Foranyone
wishingtoanticipatethecourseofAmericanpolicy,anunderstandingofthestructureofJacksonianbeliefsandvaluesis
essential.

ItwouldbeanunderstatementtosaythattheJacksonianapproachtoforeignpolicyiscontroversial.Itisanapproachthat
hascertainlycontributeditssharetotheheadachesofAmericanpolicymakersthroughouthistory.Ithasalsoplayedarolein
creatingaconstituencyabroadfortheideathattheUnitedStatesisaddictedtoacrudecowboydiplomacyanideathat,by
reducinginternationalfaithinthejudgmentandpredictabilityoftheUnitedStates,representsarealliabilityforAmerican
foreignpolicy.

Despiteitsundoubtedlimitationsandliabilities,however,Jacksonianpolicyandpoliticsareindispensableelementsof
Americanstrength.AlthoughWilsonians,JeffersoniansandthemoredelicatelyconstructedHamiltoniansdonotliketoadmit
it,everyAmericanschoolneedsJacksonianstogetwhatitwants.IftheAmericanpeoplehadexhibitedthefightingqualities
of,say,theFrenchinWorldWarII,neitherHamiltonians,norJeffersoniansnorWilsonianswouldhavehadtheopportunity
tohavemuchtodowithshapingthepostwarinternationalorder.

Moreover,asfolkculturesgo,JacksonianAmericaisactuallyopenandliberal.Non-Jacksoniansathomeandabroadare
fondofsneeringatwhatmustbeacknowledgedtobethedeeplyregrettableJacksonianrecordofracism,orits
commitmenttoformsofChristianbeliefthatstrikemanyasbothunorthodoxandbigoted.Certainly,JacksonianAmerica
hasnotbeenintheforefrontofthefightforminorityrights,norisitnecessarilytheplacetogosearchingforavantgarde
artisticstylesorcutting-edgephilosophicalreflectionsonthedeathofGod.

Butfolkculturalchangeismeasuredindecadesandgenerations,notelectoralcycles,andonthisclock,JacksonianAmerica
ismovingveryrapidly.Themilitaryinstitutionshavemovedfromstrictsegregationtoaconcertedattackonracisminfifty
years.Incivilianlife,thebeliefthatcolorisnobartomembershipintheJacksoniancommunityofhonorisrapidlyreplacing
earlierbeliefs.JustasSouthernerswhosegrandfathersburnedcrossesagainsttheCatholicChurchnowworkverywell
withCatholicsonallkindsofsocial,culturalandevenreligiousendeavors,soweareseeingasteadyerosionoftheracial
barriers.Evenonissuesofmodernistart,JacksonianAmericaismoving.TheVietnamMemorialinWashington,once
widelydenouncedbyJacksoniansforitsfailuretoincludefigurativesculptures,hasnowbecomeoneofthemostvisited
andreveredsitesinthecapital.OnMemorialDay,thousandsofleather-cladrepresentativesoftheJacksonianculturevisitit
ontheirHarley-Davidsons,manyofthemaccompaniedbytheirwivesridingpillion.

JacksonianAmericaperformsanadditionalservice:itmakesamajor,ifunheralded,contributiontoAmericasvaunted"soft
power."ItisnotsimplytheJeffersoniancommitmenttolibertyandequality,theWilsonianrecordofbenevolence,anti-
colonialismandsupportfordemocracy,oreventhecommercialsuccessresultingfromHamiltonianpoliciesthatattracts
peopletotheUnitedStates.Perhapsbeyondalltheseitisthespectacleofacountrythatisgoodforaveragepeopletolive
in:whereordinarypeoplecananddoexpressthemselvesculturally,economicallyandspirituallywithoutanyinhibition.The
consumerlifestyleoftheUnitedStatesandtheconsequencesoffederalpolicytoenrichthemiddleclassandmakeita
classofhomeownersandautomobiledriverswinsthecountrymanyadmirersabroad.Forthefirsttimeinhumanhistory,
millionsofordinarypeoplehaveenoughmoneyintheirpocketsandtimeontheirhandstosupportapopularculturethathas
moreresourcesthanthehighcultureofthearistocracyandelite.Thiscultureiswhathundredsofmillionsofforeigners
lovemostabouttheUnitedStates,anditsdisseminationmakesscoresofmillionsofforeignersfeelsomehowconnectedto
orevenpartoftheUnitedStates.Thecultural,socialandreligiousvibrancyandunorthodoxyofJacksonianAmericanot
excludingsuchpastimesasprofessionalwrestlingareamongthecountrysmostimportantforeignpolicyassets.

ItmayalsobeworthnotingthattheimagesofAmericanpropensitiestoviolence,andofthecapabilitiesofAmerican
militaryforcesandintelligenceoperatives,aresowidelydistributedinthemediathattheymayactuallyheighteninternational
respectforAmericanstrengthanddiscourageattemptstotestit.

Thisbasicallypositiveassessmentwouldbeincompletewithoutadescriptionofthetwomostseriousproblemsthatthe
JacksonianschoolperenniallyposesforAmericanpolicymakers.Bothofthemspringfromthewideideologicalandcultural
differencesthatdividetheJacksonianoutlookfromtheotherschools.

ThefirstproblemisthegapbetweenHamiltonianandWilsonianpromisesandJacksonianperformance.Theglobally
oriented,order-buildingschoolsofthoughtseeAmericanpowerasaresourcetobeexpendedinpursuitoftheirfar-
reachinggoals.Manyofthecommitmentstheywishtomake,theinstitutionstheywishtobuild,andthesocialand
economicpoliciestheywishtopromotedonotenjoyJacksoniansupportinsomecases,theyelicitviolentJacksonian
disagreement.ThisputsHamiltoniansandWilsoniansoverandoveragaininanawkwardposition.Atbesttheyaretryingto
pushtreaties,lawsandappropriationsthroughasulkyandreluctantCongress.Atworsttheyfindthemselvescommittedto
militaryconfrontationswithoutJacksoniansupport.Moreoftenthannot,themilitaryactivitiestheywishtopursueare
multilateral,limitedwarfareorpeacekeepingoperations.Theseareoftenunpopularbothinsidethemilitaryandinthe
countryatlarge.Caughtbetweentheircommitments(andthewell-organizedHamiltonianorWilsonianlobbiesandpressure
groupswhosepoliticalcloutisoftenatleastpartiallyresponsibleforthesecommitments)andthemanifestunpopularityof
theactionsrequiredtofulfillthem,Americanpolicymakersdither,tackfromsidetoside,andgenerallymakean
unimpressiveshow.ThisisoneofthestructuralproblemsofAmericanforeignpolicy,anditisexacerbatedbythedivided
structureoftheAmericangovernmentandSenatecustomsandrulesthatgiveadeterminedoppositionmanyopportunities
toblockactionofwhichitdisapproves.

Thesecondproblemhasasimilarorigin,butadifferentstructure.Jacksonianopinionisslowtofocusonaparticular
foreignpolicyissue,andslowerstilltomakeacommitmenttopursueanendvigorouslyandforthelongterm.Oncethat
commitmenthasbeenmade,itisevenhardertobuildJacksoniansentimentforachange.Thisisparticularlytruewhen
changeinvolvesovercomingoneoftheingrainedpreferencesinJacksoniancultureitis,forexample,muchhardertoshift
asettledhawkishconsensusinadovishdirectionthanviceversa.Thehardesttaskofallistomaintainsupportforapolicy
thateschewsoversimplificationinfavorofcomplexity.HavinggottenJacksonianopinionintoawarinVietnamorthe
PersianGulf,itwasveryhardtogetitoutagainwithoutachievingtotalvictory.OnceChinaorVietnamhasbeenestablished
asanenemynation,itisverydifficulttobuildsupportfornormalizingrelationsor,worsestill,extendingforeignaid.

Theseproblems,whichareresponsibleformanyoftherecurringsystemcrashesandunhappystalematesinAmerican
foreignpolicy,canneverbefullysolved.TheyreflectprofounddifferencesinoutlookandinterestinAmericansociety,and
itisthejobofourinstitutionstoadjudicatethesedisputesandforcecompromiseratherthantoeliminatethem.

Effortsbypolicymakerstofinessethesedisputesoftenexacerbatethebasicproblem,whichisthecultural,politicaland
classdistancebetweenJacksonianAmericaandtherepresentativesoftheotherschools.AttemptstomaskHamiltonianor
WilsonianpoliciesinJacksonianrhetoric,ortootherwisemisrepresentorhideunpopularpolicies,maysucceedintheshort
run,butultimatelytheycanleadtoacollapseofpopularconfidenceandthestiffeningofresistancetoanyandallpolicies
deemedsuspect.WhenmisguidedpoliticaladviserspersuadedthedistinctivelyunmilitaryMassachusettsGovernorMichael
Dukakistoputonahelmetandgetinatankforatelevisioncommercial,theyonlyadvertisedhowfaroutoftouchwith
JacksonianAmericatheywere.
 From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
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 From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 02/01/201611:56:30AM
To: KellyKivler<kbk1267@gmail.com>
Subject: GetBetter

http://qz.com/604756/the-us-bet-big-on-american-oil-and-now-the-whole-global-economy-is-paying-the-price/

TheUSbetbigonAmericanoilandnowthewholeglobaleconomyispayingtheprice

Oilhaswrong-footedourleadingexpertsagain.

Atthebeginningof2014,theworldwasmarvelinginsurpriseastheUSreturnedasapetroleumsuperpower,aroleithadrelinquishedintheearly1970s.ItwaspumpingsomuchoilandgasthatexpertsforesawanewAmericanindustrialrenaissance,with
trillionsofdollarsininvestmentandmillionsofnewjobs.

Twoyearslater,facesareaghastasthesameoilhasinsteadunleashedworld-classhavoc:Justamonthintothenewyear,theDowJonesIndustrialAverageisdown5.5%.JapansNikkeihasdropped8%,andtheStoxxEurope600is6.4%lower.Theblood
onthefloorevenincludesfuel-dependentindustriesthatlogicsuggestsshouldbeprospering,suchasairlines.

Chinasslowinggrowthisonebigreason.Another,accordingtoanalysts,isthedirectorindirectfaultofoilprices,whicharestilldown5%thisyeardespiteaweek-longbullishrun,andabout70%sincetheirJune2014peak,withmuchuncertaintyhowmuch
theywillrisefromherein2016.

Themisreadofthemarketagainillustratesoilsunfathomabilitydespitebeingstudiedmicroscopicallyfor140yearsbysomeofthehighest-paidquantsandanalystsonEarth,oilconfoundswithmaddeningregularity.

Butitalsoreflectsthetendencyofanalyststoeagerlyembraceanewfinancialtrendfirst,andonlylaterexaminewhatcouldhappenshoulditproceedtoitsnaturalextremesbeforesufferingtheseeminglyinevitablehit.

Themisreadofthemarketagainillustratesoilsunfathomability.Alwaysinsuchsituations,afewtradersbettheotherway,leadingobserverstodeclarethemoracles.JohnArmitage,whosehedgefundmade$1.5billionlastyearbettingonanoil
bloodbath,hasntyetbeencrownedasooth-sayer,thoughhecouldbeatanytime.Ontheotherside,therearetraderslikeAndrewJohnHall,along-timeoilprophetwhomadeabigbetstartingin2014thatoilpricesweregoingbackup,buttheyinstead
plungedin2015,hestayedwiththebet,andbytheendoftheyear,hishedgefundhadreportedlylostmorethanaquarterofitsvalue.

Theanalystsdefendthemselvesbynotingthattheygotthisandthataspectofoilstrajectoryright,whichisfairenough.Butitseemsallmissedthebigpicture:First,theyfailedtoseethatfrom2011to2014,asurgeinshaleoilproductionwasgoingtobecome
abigfactoringlobalsuppliesthen,theydidnotanticipatethatthesameoilwouldcreatethemayhembeforeusnow.Infact,inthecaseofthecurrentturmoil,mostforecastthepreciseoppositeeconomicnirvana.Interviewswiththemaininstitutionsthat
madethebadcallsrevealnocrisisofconfidence,andtheyarebusyputtingoutanalysesofthelatestdevelopments.

Weliveinatimeofbadforecastingofalltypes.Examplesincludethefailedpredictionsofpoliticalpollstersgaugingahostofcriticalelectionsaroundtheglobe,andthedelusionarythinkingthatledtothelastAmericaneconomiccatastrophewreakedonthe
worldthe2008mortgagecrisis.Itshardtopredictevents,asPhilipTetlockdescribedlastyear(paywall)inhisbookSuperforecasting.

Evenso,thesheerscaleofwhatwasnotforeseeninoil(meaculpa:includingbyQuartz)isbreathtaking.

Consumershavebeenbigwinnersgasolinepriceshaveplummeted.Thatparthashappened.ButanalystsfailedtoanticipatethattheSaudiswouldrefusetocooperatewiththeshalegale,asitsbeendubbed,andinfactwoulddeclarewaronit,eventhough
Riyadhdidpreciselythesamethinginthe1980s.Theanalystsdidnotforetellthat,ifshaleoilproductionroseastheyprojected,itcoulddrivedownpricesnotonlytothe$80-a-barrelaveragethatmanyforecast,butmuchlowersolow,forsolong(see
chartbelow),thatcompanieswouldputonhold$380billion(andcounting)inoilandnaturalgasfieldinvestment,andfire250,000industryworkersaroundtheworldlastyear(includingaround90,000intheUS).

Nordidtheyforeseethatmanyofthecompaniesthemselveswouldbeatriskofbankruptcy(42alreadyfiledasoflastyear).Of155USoilandgascompaniesstudiedbyStandard&Poors,onethirdareratedB-orless,meaningtheyareahighriskof
default.Thesecompaniesdebtissellingatjust56centsonthedollar,beloweventhelevelduringthefinancialcrash.Asameasureofthisvulnerability,the60leadingUSindependentoilandgascompanieshaveaccumulated$200billionindebt.

Inthebiggerpicture,nonetookaccountoftheemergingmarketsaddictiontoinvestmentfromOPEC,whosebillionsofdollarstodayareeitherbeingwithdrawnorsimplynolongersent.This,alongwithanevaporationofrecycledpetrodollarsfromEurope,is
consigningthoseemergingnationstorecession,asreportedfirstbyIzabellaKaminskaandherFinancialTimescolleagues.

Unfortunately,weareallslavestohistory,saidRobinMann,anenergyanalystwithDeloitte.Wekindoffallbacktowhathistoricallyhashappened.

Whatisthathistory?
Sincethe1970s,OPEC,theSaudi-ledoilcartel,hasgovernedoilpricesbyartificiallyrestrictingproductioninitsmembersoilfieldstherewasneveraglobalshortage,butOPECsmarketbehaviorcreatedtheillusionofone.PetroleumproductionintheUS
oncetheworldslargestsupplierpeakedin1971(seechartbelow),anditwentonaslowdecline,resultinginhigherandhigherimports,andanevolvingshortageofnaturalgas,too.By2008,theindustrymantrawasthatcheapoilandgaswerehistorythe
onlyquestionwashowhighoilpricescouldgo.
 (AEI)

AsanillustrationofOPECspower,inthemid-1980s,SaudiArabiabecamefedupwithlosingmarketshareitsproductiondroppedtoaslowas3millionbarrelsaday(comparedwith10.5milliontoday).Soitfloodedthemarketwithoil,drivingdownthe
pricetoaslowas$13abarrel.Intheprocess,anumberofrivalswerecrushed,mostharshlytheSovietUnion,whichcollapsedentirely.ButtheSaudisrecoveredtheirmarketshare.

Bytheearly2000s,oildemandfromChina,India,andelsewherebegantoexceedsupplyconditionsfortheso-calledsuperspike,thefamousriseofcommoditypricesandoilslongclimbover$100abarrelbegan.

Then,unpredictedandseeminglyovernight,startinginthelate2000s,theUSwentfromnaturalgasshortagetoanenormous,100-yearoverhangofthefuel.AndtherewasasurgeinUSoilproductionthatreached4.4millionbarrelsadayby2015.Atonce,
theUSwaschallengingthe1971oilproductionpeak.

ThetriggerwasaboominhydraulicfracturingfrackingadrillingmethodthathadopenedupAmericanshalefields,previouslyregardedasuneconomic.Thecatalystforallofitwastechnologythatloweredthecostofextraction,butalsotheincentiveof
highpricesUSoilpricesbrieflywentover$113abarrelinApril2011,andstayedhigh.

WiththatriseinproductioncameaHallelujahChorus.

DanielYergin,theoilindustrychampionandauthorofthe1990Pulitzer-winninghistoryThePrize,coinedtheexpressionshalegaletodescribetheimpactheandhisfirm,IHS,forecastfromfracking.

ThisisprobablythebesteconomicnewstheUShashadsince2008.TheUS,Yerginsaid,waspoisedforanindustrialrenaissance.InanOctober2012report,IHScatalogued$5.1trillioninspendingfromshaleoilandgasproductionby2035.
InaDecember2012sequel,thefirmwentstatebyUSstateanddetailedhow,by2015,frackingwouldemploysome500,000workers.By2020,theemploymentnumberwouldriseto600,000workers,andjobssupportedbyfrackingwouldgrowto3
million,IHSsaid.

ThatwasontopofthelowergasolinepricesthatwouldbenefitallAmericanconsumers.

ThisisprobablythebesteconomicnewstheUShashadsince2008,Yerginsaid.

Oneofthespecificindustriestogainfromtheboomwouldbesteel,forecastDeloitte,theconsultingfirm,ina2014report.Giventheexpecteddemandfromtheoilindustryasitbuiltoutitsinfrastructure,Americansteelcompaniescouldnowcompeteheadto
headwithrivalsincludingChina,despitethelatterslowerlaborcosts.

Addingtothegrowingglee,anothermajorconsultingfirm,PwC,saidthatnotonlywouldshalebeabigbonanzafortheUS,butitwoulddriveafullpercentagepointincreaseinglobalGDPby2016,andanextra2.3%to3.7%by2032(seechartbelow).In
February2013(pdf),thefirmdidwarndrillersthattheyshouldprepareforloweroilprices.Buthowlow?Iffrackingspreadaroundtheworldandbegantoproduce14millionbarrelsofoiladayPwCsestimateofthepotentialby2035oilpriceswould
dropaslowas$83abarrel,thefirmsaid.

(PwC)

Suchstudies,oftenpaidforbytheindustry,accompaniedforcefuloilcompanylobbyingtoopenmorefederallandtoshaledrilling,toforestallfederalregulationoffracking,andtoliftabanonoilexports.Thefirsttwoofthoseeffortstoopenupmoreland,
andtostopfederalregulationfailed.Butoilexportswereeventuallylegalized.

Ontheshalepatchitself,thepoliticsweredecidedlypro-fracking.WhentheTexascityofDentonvotedtobarfrackingwithinmunicipallimits,theindustrycamedownhard,withthehelpofstatepoliticians:theTexaslegislatureoverturnedthemovebybarring
townsfromregulatingoilandgasdrilling.Signingthebill,governorGregAbbottsaidhewasactingintheinterestofprotectingprivatepropertyrights.

ThatswhenSaudiArabiabecameunhappy
Insummer2014,CitigroupsEdwardMorsenoticedthatSaudiArabiawasofferingitsoilatlowerpricesthanusual.Othersreportedthesame,anditwasinferredthat,asOPECsleader,SaudiArabiawassuddenlyouttopushdowntheglobalprice.And
thatiswhereitwentinexorablydown.Itwasnotclearhowlowitcouldgo,althoughMorsehadbeenforecastingforsometimethatitwouldaverageintherangeof$65to$80abarrelbytheendofthedecadenowtheplungeheforesawseemedtobe
comingmuch,muchsooner.

Ineffect,theSaudishaddeclaredwaronUSshale.Then,inNovember2014,thesituationbodeworsefortheUS-producedoil:TheSaudis,meetingwithfellowOPECcartelmembersinVienna,declaredthatUSandothernon-OPECoilhadtobedriven
outofthemarketplacethecartelasawholehadtogoonawarfooting.Soitwasthat,ledbytheSaudis,OPEC,alongwithRussia,floodedthemarketwithoil,leadingpricestoaslowas$27abarrelinJanuary,a77%dropfromtheirpeakinJune2014.

Ineffect,theSaudishaddeclaredwaronUSshale.AsQuartzhasnotedbefore,Morsehasamassedaformidablerecordforgettingbigthingsright:Againsttheconsensus,heforecastbothofthemostrecentoilpriceplunges(in2008andin2014).In
bothcases,hewassubjecttodoubtoftenborderingonridiculebyhispeers.ThereisnomajoroilanalystmoreoracularthanMorse.

Thistime,though,whilegettingtheplungeinpricesright,Morsewaslessfar-sightedabouttherest.Likeothers,heforecastaUSeconomicrenaissance.MorsealsomissedSaudiArabiaswaronshale.Onnotforeseeingtheglobaleconomicmayhem,hetold
Quartz,nobodygotthatright.

Deloitte,too,gotitssteelforecastwrong:InsteadofabonanzaforUSsteel,therewasaplungeindemand,asthedropinoilpricespromptedoilcompaniestocanceltheirprojects.Chineseimports,meanwhile,continuedtoundercutthenow-struggling
Americansteelmakers.OnJan.26,USSteelreportedthatitlost$1billioninthefourthquarterof2015.

Thisleftanalystsaskingwhatwentwrong
WiththecollapseinoilpricescamethecrashofemploymentinUScitiesacrossLouisiana,NorthDakota,andTexas,andinCanadiantownsreliantontheoilsandsboominAlberta.NorthDakotahaslostanestimated13,500roughnecksandoilengineers,
nottomentiondrivers,restaurantcooks,barbers,andgrocerystorecashiersinservicebusinessesthatsprouteduparoundthem.TheCanadianprovinceofAlbertahaslostsome20,000jobs,themostinanyindustrydownturnsincetheearly1980s.
 OilpatchvacancyinDickenson,NorthDakota.(Reuters/AndrewCullen)

AlotofAmericansboughthousesbasedonconfidenceintheboom,andnowcantmaketheirpaymentsTexashasseena15%riseinforeclosures,andOklahomaawhopping36%increase,accordingtoestimatesfromRealtyTrac.Morningstar,therating
agency,hasputathirdofsome$340millioninmortgage-backedsecuritiestiedtoNorthDakotaapartmentbuildingsandothercommercialpropertiesonitswatchlistforpossibledefault.

ButtheechohasalsobeenheardfarfromtheUSshalepatch.Intheonce-booming,toughlyrunpetro-stateofAzerbaijan,forinstance,peoplehavebeeninthestreetstoprotesthigherpricesandlostjobstheInternationalMonetaryFund,worriedabout
Azerbaijanspossiblecollapse,isspeakingwithgovernmentofficialsabouta$3billionbailout.SoupkitchensaresurfacinginMoscow,notwithstandingRussianpresidentVladimirPutinsassertionsthatthecountryiscopingfine,andthatthingswillimprovethis
year.Africanproducersalsohavefeltthepain.Likestockboursesaroundtheworld,Nigeriashastankedalongwithoilprices.

ReidMorrison,anexecutivewithPwCsenergypractice,acknowledgedthatthefirmerredinitsforecasts.HesaidthatPwC,likealotofanalysts,thoughtthatOPECwasalreadyproducingatitsmaximumoutput,sothatshalewouldsatisfywhateverdemand
developedontopofthat.Thefirmalsothoughtthat,whenanysurplusdeveloped,OPECwouldcutproduction.

ButhesaidthatPwCfastcaughtontowhatwashappeningoncethefactschanged.Thefirmwenttoclientswiththechangedcircumstances.Atatimewhenoilwassellingfor$95abarrel,PwCnowforecastthepossibilityof$50-a-barreloil.Butitwas
simplynotbelieved.Thereactionwegotfromeveryonewasdismissive,Morrisonsaid.Theywouldsay,$80abarrelisthenewfloor,sowhyareyoubeingoverlydramaticbytalkingbout$50?

Yergindidnotrespondtoanemailseekingcomment.AnIHSspokesmandeclinedtocomment.

Warningof$50-a-barreloil,hewasmoreorlesslaughedoutoftheroom.Notalltheanalystsmissedtheclues.In2012,withoilnorthof$100abarrel,wheretheconsensussaidthepricehadtobeinordertoincentivizesufficientproductiontofeed
demand,oileconomistMichaelLynchtoldanOPECconferencethatthesustainablepriceofpetroleumwas$50to$60abarrel.Hewasmoreorlesslaughedoutoftheroom.

Aroundthesametime,PhilipVerleger,anoileconomistwhorunsaconsultingfirmoutofColorado,predictedSaudiswarinaMay2012notetoclients,heforecastaLehmanevent,referringtothepivotalroleofthe2008collapseofLehmanBrothersin
thefinancialcrash.

Verlegerisaribaldiconoclastwithanencyclopedicknowledgeofindustryhistory,andapenchantforderidingthejudgmentofseeminglyeveryoneelseanalyzingthemarket.IntheLehmannote,hepredictedthatSaudiArabiawoulddoasitdidin1985
floodthemarketandhetimeditforlaterin2012.Priceswouldplunge,hesaid.Eventhoughthebullrunwentanothertwoyears,Verlegerarguablystillhadmoreclaritythanhispeers.

Whatcomesnext?
InFebruary2015,SaudienergyministerAliNaimiponderedaloudwhetherpetro-statesmightsufferablackswanevent,withoildemanddryingupentirelyby2050.AndthenwhatwouldtheSaudisdo?Itseemedlikeanoff-the-cuffphilosophical
contemplation.

ButVerlegersuggeststhatitwasntthatthelargermessageofthecurrentbedlamisthatwearewatchingtheautumnoftheoilindustry.

Producingcountriesunderstandthatoilnotproducedtodaymayneverbeproduced,VerlegertoldQuartz.SaudiArabiawasthefirstnationtocometothisunderstanding.Inresponse,theyandothercountrieshaveactedtomakesuretheirlow-costoilis
producedfirstwhilethehigh-costoilinnationssuchasVenezuelaandCanadaareleftpermanentlyintheground.

ThenotionsoundsslightlywackydoesSaudiArabiaseriouslybelievetheoilageiscomingtoanend?SaudiAramcochairmanKhalidal-Falihdidsayrecentlythatthecountryintendstomaintainitsstrategy,andkeepproducingoilatmaximumproduction.

Asforoilanalysts,theyareatoddsoverwhatthatwillmeanforprices.
 From: steedmanhinckley<steedman@earthlink.net>
Senttime: 04/10/201602:44:01PM
To: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:ToughCustomerPaysTributetoAretha

Oy,misseditthefirsttime!

Thanksfortheotherlinks.Coincidentallyenough,IjuststartedBrowder'sRedNotice.

SentfrommyiPhone

OnApr10,2016,at12:45PM,Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:

DidyoucatchtheDEreference?

SentfrommyiPad

OnApr10,2016,at11:32AM,steedmanhinckley<steedman@earthlink.net>wrote:

Manythanksforthis.HadneverevenheardrumorsofafilmofAG!

SentfrommyiPhone

OnApr10,2016,at3:10AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/04/04/aretha-franklins-american-
soul(N.B.passagesonCarolKingatKennedyCenter)

SoulSurvivor
<160404_r27923-690.jpg>
ArethaFranklin,NewYork,October14,1968(contact
print).PhotographbyRichardAvedon/theRichard
AvedonFoundation

Lateonawinternight,ArethaFranklinsatinthedressingroomofCaesars
WindsorHotelandCasino,inOntario.Shedidnotweartheexpressionof
someonewhohasjustbroughtboundlessjoytoafewthousandsouls.

Whatwaswiththesound?shesaid,inatonesomewherebetweenperplexity
andirritation.FeedbackhadpiercedaverseofMyFunnyValentine,andbefore
shesatdownatthepianotoplayInseparable,atributetothelateNatalieCole,
shenarrowedhergazeandcalledonaMr.Lowerytofixthelevelsonceand
forall.MissFranklin,asnearlyeveryoneinhercircletendstocallher,was
distinctly,ifpolitely,displeased.Foratimeupthere,Ijustcouldnthearmyself
right,shesaid.

Onthecounterinfrontofher,nexttohermakeupmirrorandhairbrush,were
smallstacksofhundred-dollarbills.Shecollectsonthespotorshedoesnotsing.
Thecashgoesintoherhandbagandthehandbageitherstayswithhersecurity
teamorgoesoutonstageandresides,withineyeshot,onthepiano.Itstheera
shegrewupinshesawsomanypeople,likeRayCharlesandB.B.King,get
rippedoff,aclosefriend,thetelevisionhostandauthorTavisSmiley,toldme.
Thereisthesenseinherveryoftenthatpeopleareouttoharmyou.Andshe
wonthaveit.Youarenotgoingtodisrespecther.

FranklinhaswoneighteenGrammyawards,soldtensofmillionsofrecords,and
isgenerallyacknowledgedtobethegreatestsingerinthehistoryofpostwar
popularmusic.JamesBrown,SamCooke,EttaJames,OtisRedding,Ray
Charles:eventheycannotmatchherpower,herrangefromgospeltojazz,
R.&B.,andpop.Atthe1998Grammys,LucianoPavarotticalledinsickwitha
sorethroatandAretha,withtwentyminutesnotice,sangNessundormafor
him.Whatdistinguishesherisnotmerelythebreadthofhercatalogueorthe
cataractforceofhervocalinstrumentitshermusicalintelligence,herwayof
singingbehindthebeat,ofsprayingawashofnotesoverasinglewordor
syllable,ofconstructing,momentbymoment,theemotionalpowerofathree-
minutesong.RespectisaspreciseanartifactasaMingvase.

Therearecertainwomensingerswhopossess,beyondalltheboundariesofour
admirationfortheirart,anuncannypowertoevokeourlove,RalphEllison
wroteina1958essayonMahaliaJackson.Indeed,wefeelthatiftheideaof
aristocracyismorethanmereclassconceit,thenthesesurelyareournatural
queens.In1967,attheRegalTheatre,inChicago,thed.j.PervisSpannpresided
overacoronationinwhichheplacedacrownonFranklinsheadandpronounced
hertheQueenofSoul.

TheQueendoesnotrehearsethebandnotforacasinogiginWindsor,Ontario.
Sheleavesittoherlongtimemusicaldirector,aseventy-nine-year-oldformer
childactoranddoo-wopsingernamedH.B.Barnum,toassembleherusual
rhythmsectionandbackupsingersandpairthemwithsomelocalunionhornand
stringplayers,andrunthemthroughathree-hourscanofanythingFranklinmight
choosetosing:thehitsfromthelatesixtiesandearlyseventiesChainof
Fools,SpiritintheDark,Thinkalongwithmorerecentrecordings.
Sometimes,FranklinwillswitchthingsupandpulloutajazztuneCherokee
orSkylarkbutthatisrare.Hergreatestconcernishusbandinghervoiceand
herenergies.Whenshewearsafurcoatonstage,itspartlytokeepwarmand
preventhervoicefromclosingup.ButitsalsobecausethatswhattheoldIve-
earned-it-now-Im-gonna-wear-itgospelstarsoftendid:theyworethemink.
Midwaythroughherset,shemakeswhatshecallsafalseexit,andslips
backstageandletsthebandnoodlewhilesherests.Itsafifteen-roundfight,and
soshepacesherself,Barnumsays.Arethaisnotthirtyyearsold.Sheis
seventy-four.

Franklindoesntgetaroundmuchanymore.Forthepastthirty-fouryears,she
hasrefusedtofly,whichmeansthatshehasntbeenabletoperforminfavorite
hauntsfromthelatesixties,liketheOlympia,inParis,ortheConcertgebouw,in
Amsterdam.Whenshedoestravel,itsbybus.NotaGreyhound,exactly,but,
still,itsexhausting.Atripnotlongagofromherhouse,outsideDetroit,toLos
Angelesprovedtoomuchtocontemplateagain.Thatonejustworemeout,she
said.Itsanicebus,butittookdays!Shehasattendedanxious-flyerclasses
andsaidthatshesdeterminedtogetonaplaneagainsoon.Imthinkingabout
makingtheflightfromDetroittoChicago,shesaid.Babysteps.

EveniftheconcertinWindsorwasashadowofherstageworkagenerationago,
therewereintermittentmomentsofsublimity.Naturally,shehaslostrangeand
stamina,butsheismilesbetterthanSinatraatasimilarage.Andshehassurvived
longerthannearlyanycontemporary.InWindsor,shelaggedforawhileandthen
rippeduptheB.B.Kingtwelve-barbluesSweetSixteen.PerformingChainof
Fools,areplicaoftheReverendElijahFairsgospeltunePainsofLife,she
managedtomakeitjustasgreasyaswhensherecordedit,in1968.

Beforetheshow,Iwastalkingwithpeopleintheaisles.Morethanafewsaid
theyhadntseenFranklinorpaidmuchattentiontoherrecordingsforyears.It
wasanoldercrowd,buttheyhadntcometoseeanoldiesshow.What
reawakenedthem,theysaid,waspreciselywhathadreawakenedme:avideo,
goneviral,ofFranklinsinging(YouMakeMeFeelLike)ANaturalWomanat
lastDecembersKennedyCenterHonors.Watchitifyouhavent:inunderfive
minutes,yourlifewillimprovebyaminimumofforty-sevenpercent.
ArethacomesoutonstagelookinglikethefanciestchurchladyinChristendom:
fierceredlipstick,floor-lengthmink,abrocadedpink-and-golddressthatBessie
Smithwouldhavewornifshedsoldtensofmillionsofrecords.Arethasits
downatthepiano.Sheadjuststhemike.Thensheproceedstopunchoutaseries
ofgospelchordsin12/8time,and,ifyouhaveanounceofsapleftinyou,you
areovercome.Ahugeorchestrawellsupbeneathher,andfourcrackbackup
singersslivertheirperfectlytimedaccents(Ah-hoo!)infrontofherlines.
Arethaissingingwithapowerthatrivalsherownselfofthreeorfourdecades
ago.

Upinthefirsttier,sittingnexttotheObamas,CaroleKingisabouttofalloverthe
rail.Sheisanhonoree,andwroteANaturalWomanwithherfirsthusband,
GerryGoffin.FromthemomentFranklinstartsthefirstverseLookingouton
themorningrain,/Iusedtofeel...souninspiredKingisrollinghereyes
backinherheadandwavingonthemusicasifinakindofecstaticpossession.
ShesoonspotsObamawipingatearfromhischeek.(Thecoolcatwept!King
toldmelater.Ilovedthat.)

KinghadntseenFranklininalongtime,andwhenshehadFranklinwasnot
performingatthislevelofintensity.Seeinghersitdowntoplaythepianoputme
rungshigheronthelevelsofjoy,Kingsays.AndwhenFranklingetsupfromthe
pianobenchtofinishoffthesongThatsapieceoftheatre,andshesadivain
thebestsense,so,ofcourse,shehadtodothatattheperfectmomentthejoy
deepens.

Kingrecallshowthesongcameabout.Itwas1967,andsheandGoffinwerein
Manhattan,walkingalongBroadway,andJerryWexler,ofAtlanticRecords,
pulledupbesidetheminalimousine,rolleddownthewindow,andsaid,Im
lookingforareallybighitforAretha.HowaboutwritingasongcalledANatural
Woman.Herolledupthewindowandthecardroveoff.KingandGoffinwent
hometoJersey.Thatnight,aftertuckingtheirkidsintobed,theysatdownand
wrotethemusicandthelyrics.Bythenextmorning,theyhadahit.

Ihearthesethingsinmyhead,wheretheymightgo,howtheymightsound,
Kingsays.ButIdonthavethechopstodoitmyself.Soitwaslikewitnessinga
dreamrealized.

Beyondthemusicitself,themomenteveryonetalkedaboutafterFranklins
performanceattheKennedyCenterwastheway,justbeforethefinalchorus,as
shewasreachingtheall-outcrescendo,shestrippedoffherminkandletitfallto
thefloor.Whoosh!Droppingthefuritsanoldgospelmove,agestureof
emotionalabandon,oflettingloose.AtMahaliaJacksonswake,ClaraWard,one
ofArethasgreatestinfluences,threwherminkstoleattheopencasketaftershe
sangBeamsofHeaven.Thefurispartofthedrama,theroyalpersona.When
FranklinwenttoseeDiahannCarrollinaproductionofSunsetBoulevard,in
Toronto,shehadtwoseats:oneforher,oneforthemink.

BackstageinWindsor,IaskedFranklinaboutthatnightinD.C.Hermood
brightened.Oneofthethreeorfourgreatestnightsofmylife,shesaid.

<160404_a19796-690.jpg>
Irefusetoinvadeanotherplanetinmatchingoutfits.

Thecoolcatwept,Kinghadmarvelled.WhenIe-mailedPresidentObamaabout
ArethaFranklinandthatnight,hewasntreticentinhisreply.Nobodyembodies
morefullytheconnectionbetweentheAfrican-Americanspiritual,theblues,
R.&B.,rockandrollthewaythathardshipandsorrowweretransformedinto
somethingfullofbeautyandvitalityandhope,hewroteback,throughhispress
secretary.AmericanhistorywellsupwhenArethasings.Thatswhy,whenshe
sitsdownatapianoandsingsANaturalWoman,shecanmovemetotears
thesamewaythatRayCharlessversionofAmericatheBeautifulwillalwaysbe
inmyviewthemostpatrioticpieceofmusiceverperformedbecauseit
capturesthefullnessoftheAmericanexperience,theviewfromthebottomas
wellasthetop,thegoodandthebad,andthepossibilityofsynthesis,
reconciliation,transcendence.
Somuchofthishistorythetransformationofhardshipandsorrow,thespiritual
upliftafterboundlesspain,gospelafterbluesisaparticularinheritanceofthe
blackchurch.InTheSoulsofBlackFolk,W.E.B.DuBoiswritesthat,
despitecaricatureanddefilement,themusicoftheblackchurchremainsthe
mostoriginalandbeautifulexpressionofhumanlifeandlongingyetbornon
Americansoil.Fromthedaysofslavery,theblackchurchwasarefuge,asafe
houseofcommunity,worship,andspeech,andasthedecadespassedthemusic
ofSundaymorningbecameincreasinglyassociatedwiththemusicofthenight
before.ThomasA.Dorsey,thefatherofmoderngospel,wasawhorehousepiano
playerandthemusicaldirectorofthePilgrimBaptistChurch,inChicago.His
songsweresungatrentparties,andatthefuneralofDr.King.Hisgospelandhis
barrelhousebluesPreciousLord,TakeMyHandandItsTightLikeThat,
PeaceintheValleyandBigFatMamapossess,inhiswords,thesame
feeling,agraspingoftheheart.

Arethasfather,ClarenceLaVaughnFranklin,wasthemostfamousblack
preacherofhisday,andbyfarthemostprofoundinfluenceonthecourseofher
life.Hewasbornin1915andgrewupinSunflowerCounty,intheMississippi
Delta.ThiswasthesamelandscapethatbredRobertJohnson,SonHouse,
HowlinWolf,MuddyWaters,andFannieLouHamer.B.B.King,anotherDelta
neighbor,describedinhismemoirsthatcommonground:theKlanandthecross
burningsthefurysuppressedineverychildwhoencounteredalynchingthe
strangefruithangingfromatreenearthecourthouse.Ifeeldisgustand
disgraceandrageandeveryemotionthatmakesmecrywithouttearsandscream
withoutsound,Kingwrote.

WhenC.L.Franklinwasaroundfifteen,heexperiencedavision:hesawasingle
plankonthewallofhishouseengulfedinflames.Avoicespoketomefrom
behindtheplank,hetoldtheethnomusicologistJeffToddTiton,andsaid
somethinglikeGoandpreachthegospeltoallthenations.Bythetimehewas
eighteen,hewasacircuitrider,anitinerantpreacherhitchhikingfromchurchto
church.

Eventually,helandedapulpitinMemphis,whereheattractednoticeastheking
oftheyoungwhoopers,astyleofpreachingthatbeginswitharelatively
measuredexpositionofapassagefromScriptureandthencrescendosintoan
ecstatic,musicalflight,withthekindofcall-and-responsethatbecameembedded
inthemusicofJamesBrown.

FranklinleftMemphisin1944and,afteratwo-yearresidenceatachurchin
Buffalo,settledinDetroit,attheNewBethelBaptistChurch.Thereheestablished
areputation,acquiringonenicknameafteranothertheBlackPrince,the
JitterbugPreacher,thePreacherwiththeGoldenVoice.

Inthosedays,NewBethelwasonHastingsStreet,thespineofParadiseValley,
whichwasthecenteroftheblackcommunity.Detroithadswelledwithblack
migrantsfromtheSouth,andHastingsStreetwasdensewithchurchesand
black-runbeautysalons,barbershops,funeralhomesaroundthecornerfrom
NewBethelwastheFlameShowBarandLeesSensation.Franklinwas,inthe
phraseofoneofhiscongregants,stinkysharp.HedroveaCadillacandtookto
wearingslicksuitsandalligatorshoes.

Franklin,hiswife,BarbaraSiggers,andtheirfourchildrenErma,Cecil,
Carolyn,andArethalivedinaparsonagehouseonEastBostonBoulevard,
amongblackprofessionalsandbusinesspeople.Thereweresixbedroomsanda
livingroomwithsilkcurtainsandagrandpiano.Yet,whileFranklinlivedlarge,he
preachedakindofblackliberationtheologyBaptist,butinflectedattimeswith
themoreconvulsiveaccentsofthePentecostal,orsanctified,church.Ashis
scrupulousbiographerNickSalvatorewrites,hewasuniqueamonghisfellow
ministersinthathewelcomedalloftheresidentsofHastingsStreetprostitutes,
drugdealersandpimpsaswellasthebusinessmen,professionals,andthedevout
workingclasses.

Franklingainednationalfamebyrecordinghissermons.Thealbumssoldinthe
hundredsofthousands.OnSundaynights,hecouldbeheardonWLAC,a
Nashville-basedstationthatcoveredhalfthecountry.JohnLewis,aleaderof
SNCCandacongressmansince1987,recallslisteningtoFranklinontheradio
whenhewasgrowingup,inPikeCounty,Alabama.Hewasamasteratbuilding
hissermon,pacingit,layeringit,liftingitlevelbyleveltoaclimaxandthenfinally
bringingithome,LewiswroteinhismemoirWalkingwiththeWind.Noone
couldbringithomeliketheReverendFranklin.

Asagirl,Arethatookitallin:Sundaymorningsandthenightsbefore.Shewas
thoroughlyabsorbedinthechurchlifeofNewBethelandintheculturallifeof
herlivingroom,which,attimes,seemedtorepresenttheepicenterandgenealogy
ofAfrican-Americanmusic.Sittingonthestairs,shewatchedArtTatumandNat
Coleplaythepiano.OscarPeterson,DukeEllington,DellaReese,EllaFitzgerald,
BillyEckstine,andLionelHamptoncametovisit.DinahWashingtoncoachedthe
girlsontheirsinging.TheReverendJamesCleveland,apillarofthegospelworld,
showedArethahowtoplaygospelchords.ThekidsnearbyincludedDianaRoss,
SmokeyRobinson,andtherosterofwhatbecameMotown.

AsC.L.Franklinsfamegrew,Salvatorewrites,sodidhispenchantfordrinking,
womanizing,andworse.In1940,hehadfatheredachildwithatwelve-year-old
girl,andheremainedunrepentant.Hecouldalsobeabusivetothewomeninhis
life.In1948,whenArethawassix,hermotherleftDetroittoliveinBuffalo.The
childrensawheroccasionally,buttherewasalwaysaloomingandpowerful
sadnessinthehouse.AsMahaliaJackson,aclosefriendoftheFranklins,putit,
Thewholefamilywantedforlove.C.L.Franklinsmotherhelpedcareforthe
children,asdidastringoffriends,secretaries,andlovers,includingClaraWard,
oftheWardSingers,oneofthegreatgospelvocalistsofhertime.Barbara
Siggersdiedin1952.

Inthemid-fifties,FranklinstartedtheC.L.FranklinGospelCaravanandtoured
thecountryforweeksatatime,preachinghisgreatesthits:TheEagleStirreth
HerNest,DryBonesintheValley,TheManatthePool.LittleSammy
Bryant,adwarfwhowasapreternaturallytalentedsinger,oftenopenedtheshow
andappearedalongsidegospelstarsliketheDixieHummingbirds,SisterRosetta
Tharpe,andtheSoulStirrers,featuringSamCooke.Arethawasinhisentourage,
playingpianoandsinging.Thevoiceringing,powerful,soulfulandthe
musicalguileweretherefromthestart.Shecouldriff,bendingnotesasifhigh
ontheneckofaguitarshehadfantasticrangeandcommandofeveryeffect,
frommelismatocirclingthebeat.Thesetechniquescameintoplayinhercareer
inR.&B.,soul,andpop,butallthatwasechtgospel,accordingtothescholar
AnthonyHeilbut.

WhenFranklinwasfifteen,sherecordedseveralgospelsongs,amongthem
NeverGrowOldandWhiletheBloodRunsWarm.Shealsosawagreatdeal
oflife,includingthelibertineatmospheresurroundingthegospel-musicscene.By
thetimesherecordedthosefirstsongs,shewaspregnantwithhersecondchild.
Sheleftschoolandwentontheroadfor,moreorless,therestofherlife.

Arethadidnotinheritapurelyreligiousandmusicallegacy.TheFranklinhouse
wasalsopolitical.Shewas,bythestandardsofParadiseValley,ayoungwoman
ofstatusandprivilege,butshesufferedthesamehumiliationsasanyblack
womantravellingthroughtheSouthorventuringintothewhiteprecinctsof
Detroit.BythetimeofthemurderofEmmettTill,in1955,C.L.Franklinhad
openedNewBetheluptothemovement,and,fromhispulpit,hedenounced
segregationandwhitesupremacy.WhenDr.KingcametoDetroit,hestayedwith
theFranklins.

Aretha,too,joinedthemovement.Atthesametime,sheyearnedforlarger
stages.ShesawhowSamCookehadcrossedoverintoR.&B.asifitwerethe
mostnaturalofpassages.In1960,whenshewaseighteen,shemovedtoNew
YorkandsignedwithColumbiaRecords.Thismarkedthestartofanextended
apprenticeshipunderJohnHammond,whohadbeenbehindthecareersofBillie
HolidayandCountBasie.HammondhaditinhismindthatArethashouldbethe
nextgreatjazzsinger,eventhoughtheformwasnolongerascendant.Itwasnt
until1966,whenFranklinwenttoworkwithJerryWexlerandAhmetErtegun,at
AtlanticRecords,thatshereallymadeherhitsinR.&B.ButatColumbia,even
singingstandardslikeSkylarkandHowDeepIstheOcean,shebrokeinto
thesecularworld.FranklinhadherfatherssupportandtheexampleofCooke,
butshefeltcompelledtopublishacolumn,in1961,intheAmsterdamNews,
saying,IdontthinkthatinanymatterIdidtheLordadisservicewhenImade
upmymindtwoyearsagotoswitchover.Shewenton,Afterall,thebluesisa
musicbornoutoftheslaverydaysufferingsofmypeople.

<160404_a19947-690.jpg>
Wouldyouliketograbawatersometime?

OnJune23,1963,C.L.FranklinhelpedDr.KingorganizetheWalktoFreedom,
amarchofmorethanahundredthousandpeoplethroughdowntownDetroit.At
CoboHall,King,acknowledgingmygoodfriendC.L.Franklin,delivereda
speechfilledwithpassagesthatherecycled,twomonthslater,attheMarchon
Washington.ThisafternoonIhaveadream,hetoldthecrowd.Ihavea
dream,thatlittlewhitechildrenandlittleNegrochildrenwillbejudgedbythe
contentoftheircharacterandnotthecoloroftheirskin.

KinglaterconfidedtoC.L.Franklin,Frank,Iwillneverlivetoseeforty.AtDr.
Kingsfuneral,inApril,1968,ArethawasaskedtosingThomasDorseys
PreciousLord.Shewasnowacentralvoiceinboththeblackcommunity,
eclipsingherfather,andinthemusicalworld.Shehadcrossedover.

ThesongsonherfirstrecordsforAtlanticDoRightWoman,DoRightMan,
Respect,Dr.Feelgood,(YouMakeMeFeelLike)ANaturalWoman,
Think,ChainofFoolsweretheresolutionofherapprenticeship.Leaving
behindtheAmericanSongbookforawhileandfindingjusttherightblendofthe
churchandtheblues,shewasnowcelebratedasthegreatestvoiceinpopular
music.RespectandThinkbecameanthemsoffeminismandblackpowerand
standalongsideMississippiGoddamn,Busted,andAChangeIsGonna
Come.Daddyhadbeenpreachingblackpridefordecades,shetoldthewriter
DavidRitz,andweasapeoplehadrediscoveredhowbeautifulblacktrulywas
andwereechoing,Sayitloud,ImblackandImproud.

Atthesametime,Franklinfoundthatthestrainsoflifeasastar,asamother,asa
daughtertohertempestuousfatherwereattimesunbearable.TedWhite,herfirst
husbandtheymarriedin1961anddivorcedeightyearslaterwasajumped-up
streethustlerwhoabusedher.In1969,whenherfatherletaradicalorganization
calledtheRepublicofNewAfricausethesanctuaryatNewBethel,thenight
endedinabloodygunbattlebetweenthegroupandtheDetroitpolice.Thenext
year,shecameoutonstage,inSt.Louis,andstartedsingingRespectbutthen
walkedoff,unabletocontinue.ThepromoterannouncedthatFranklinhad
sufferedanervousbreakdownfromextremepersonalproblems.Shesoon
recoveredenoughtoperform,butsherarelyseemedunburdened,exceptinthe
studioandonstage.

IthinkofArethaasOurLadyofMysteriousSorrows,Wexlerwroteinhis
memoirs.Hereyesareincredible,luminouseyescoveringinexplicablepain.Her
depressionscouldbeasdeepasthedarksea.Idontpretendtoknowthe
sourcesofheranguish,butanguishsurroundsArethaassurelyasthegloryof
hermusicalaura.

Franklinsvulnerabilityhasbroughtwithitanintensedesireforcontrolthatoften
leadstostillmoreanguish.Whenitcametimetodoanautobiography,she
enlistedRitz,askilledbiographerandghostwriterwhohadproducedfascinating
bookswithRayCharles,EttaJames,BettyeLaVette,andSmokeyRobinson.He
foundherasingularlyresistantsubject.Sheinsistedonstrippingthebookof
nearlyanythinggrittyordark.Publishedin1999,itreadslikeanextendedpress
release.Denialisherstrategyforemotionalsurvival,Ritztoldme.Itwasonly
atthemicrophone,inhermusic,heconcluded,thatFranklinfeltincommand.
Therearereportsthatshehas,inrecentyears,beenstrugglingwithcancer,but
herfriendssayshedneveradmittosuchathing,notevenonherdeathbed.

Fifteenyearsaftertheautobiographywaspublished,andflopped,Ritzpublished
anunauthorizedbiography,filledwithmaterialthathehadaccumulatedovertime
fromintimatepersonalandprofessionalsources.Thewomanwhoemergesisa
musicalgeniusandapivotalfigureintheculturalhistoryoftheblackfreedom
movementsheisalsosomeonewhohassufferedcountlesslosses,been
mistreatedinmanyways,andattimeshasreactionsthattrythepatienceofher
associates,creditors,family,andfriends.Franklindenouncedthebook:Liesand
morelies!Butnoneofthesources,includingthoseclosesttoher,havebacked
away.

EvenBeyonchashadtheexperienceofdispleasingFranklin.Theoccasionwas
the2008GrammyAwards.Beyonc,workingfromlinesonaTeleprompterthat
werelikelynotofherowndevising,introducedTinaTurnertotheaudienceas
theQueen.WithduerespecttoTinaTurner,thisisArethastitle,assurelyasit
isElizabethIIs,andFranklin,whoiseasilywounded,issuedascathing
proclamation.Itwasacheapshot,shesaid.

AlargerconsequenceofFranklinscravingforcontrolisthatheraudiencehas
beendeniedoneofhergreatesttreasures.Notlongago,AhmirKhalibThompson,
thedrummerandbandleaderbetterknownasQuestlove,postedthisonhis
Instagramfeed:OfalltheinsideindustrystuffIvebeenprivytolearnabout
NOTHINGhastorturedmysoulmorethanknowingoneoftheGREATEST
recordedmomentsingospelhistorywasjustgonnasitontheshelfandcollect
dust.

QuestlovewasreferringtotheholygrailofArethaStudiesafilmedversion,
neverseeninpublic,ofAmazingGrace,twogospelconcertsthatFranklingave
inJanuary,1972,attheNewTempleMissionaryBaptistChurch,insouth-central
LosAngeles.Popmusichaslongtantalizeditscompletistfanswithrumorsof
rarefootage:therewasEattheDocument,featuringasceneinwhicha
stonedJohnLennonteasesanevenmorestonedBobDylan(Doyousufferfrom
soreeyes,groovyforehead,orcurlyhair?)andtherewasCocksuckerBlues,
RobertFrankscollaborationwiththeRollingStones,featuringMickJagger
snortingcoke.Bothfilmsarenowprettyeasytofindandneitherisessential.

ThefilmofAmazingGraceisanothermatter.Atlanticissuedarecordingfrom
theconcertsasadoubleLP,in1972,andithassoldtwomillioncopies,double
platinum,makingitthebest-sellinggospelrecordofalltime.Itisperhapsher
mostshatteringandindispensablerecording.AsFranklinhassaidrepeatedly,I
neverleftthechurch.Theblackchurchwas,andis,ineverythingshesings,
fromafalteringMyCountry,TisofTheeatObamasfirstinauguraltoa
knockoutrenditionofAdelesRollingintheDeep,twoyearsago,onthe
Lettermanshow.

By1971,Franklinwasatherpeak,withastringofhitsandGrammys,butshe
wasalsopreparingforareturntogospel.InMarch,sheplayedtheFillmore
West,inSanFrancisco,theultimatehippievenue.Thefilmofthatdateison
YouTube,andyoucanhearhersingingherhits,frontingKingCurtissastonishing
band,theKingpins.ShewinsoveracrowdmoreaccustomedtotheMixolydian
jamsoftheGratefulDead.AndhersurpriseduetwithRayCharlesonSpiritin
theDarkisfarfromthehighlight.

Afewsongsintotheset,FranklinplaysonaFenderRhodestheopeningchords
ofPaulSimonsBridgeOverTroubledWater,weavinghypnoticgospelphrases
betweenherbackupsingers(Stillwatersrundeep...)andtheB-3organlines
ofBillyPreston,ahugefigureingospelbutrecognizedbythewhiteaudienceas
thefifthBeatle,forhisplayingontheLetItBealbum.JustasOtisRedding
quitsingingRespectafterhearingArethasversion(Fromnowon,itbelongs
toher),SimonandArtGarfunkelforeverhadtocompetewiththememoryof
thisperformance.Simon,whowrotethesongayearbefore,wasinspiredbya
gospelsong,ClaudeJeterandtheSwanSilvertonesversionofMary,DontYou
Weep.JeterincludedanimprovisedlineIllbeyourbridgeoverdeepwaterif
youtrustinmynameandSimonwassoclearlytakenwithitthatheeventually
gaveJeteracheck.DaphneBrooks,whoteachesAfrican-Americanstudiesat
Yale,aptlydescribestheFillmoreWestperformanceasabridgetothe
AmazingGraceconcertsthatwerejustafewmonthsaway.

FranklinenlistedherDetroitmentor,theReverendJamesCleveland,tosingand
playpiano,andthepastorAlexanderHamiltontoconducttheSouthernCalifornia
CommunityChoir.ThegospelconcertinLosAngelesopenswithMary,Dont
YouWeep,aspiritualbasedonBiblicalnarrativesofliberationandresurrection,
andrecorded,in1915,bytheFiskJubileeSingers.Itispossiblythemost
wrenchingmusiconthealbum.Countlessperformershaverecordedthesong
theSoulStirrers,InezAndrews,BurlIves,JamesBrown,BruceSpringsteen
butFranklin,whowasneverinbettervoice,seemspossessedbyit.Shedelivers
apulsing,hauntedversion,takingflightsoflyricalimprovisation,noteafternote
soaringoversinglesyllables.Inherreading,thebluesalwaysresidesingospel,
andsomehowthisisherversionofgrace.

ChuckRainey,herbassplayerintheearlyseventies,toldmethatArethasvoice
wassoemotionallypowerfulthatattimesshewouldthrowthebandoutofthe
groove.Arethacametomeonceandheldmyhandandshesaidtome,Chuck,
dontlistentometoointensely.IknowwhatIdotopeople.Ineedforthebass
tobewhereitissoIcansing.Bernard(Pretty)Purdie,thedrummeronthe
AmazingGracesessions,toldmethatFranklin,havingsungforsolongwith
theReverendClevelandatNewBethelandinherlivingroom,wasabsolutelysure
ofherself.Shedidnthavetoworryaboutwhattothinkaboutorsing,hesaid.
Sheknewwhatshewasdoingfromjumpstreet.

Theresnoarguingwiththat.ArethasangsongsinLosAngelesthatshefirst
sangandrecordedasagirl,includingNeverGrowOldandPreciousLord.
Thereisaten-minute-longAmazingGrace,partsong,partsermon,thatcould
comeonlyfromsomeonesteepedinthetraditionofherfathersDeltawhooping.

<160404_a19957-690.jpg>

Therecordisanenduringachievement,buttheevent,likeWoodstock,was
somethingthatalsodeservedtobeseen.SydneyPollack,whohaddirectedJane
FondainTheyShootHorses,DontThey?andhadbeennominatedforan
AcademyAward,wantedtomakethathappen.Pollackandhiscrewfilmedboth
nights.Thesixteen-millimetrecolorfootagewasshotinthemoststraightforward
way,buttherewasaproblem:Pollackwasnotanexperienceddocumentarian,
andheandhiscrewfailedtouseclapperboardstosynchronizethesoundwith
theimages.Afteramonths-longefforttofixtheproblem,WarnerBros.shelved
theproject.PollackwentontodirectTheWayWeWere,ThreeDaysofthe
Condor,andOutofAfrica.HelostinterestinAmazingGrace.Thefilm
stayedinavaultforfortyyears.

In2007,AlanElliott,arecordproducer,approachedPollackaboutthefilm.
Pollackhadcancer,andWarnerBros.soldElliotttherightstothefilm.Pollack
agreedtoworkonitwithhim,buthediedthenextyear.

Elliottsucceededingettingthefilmsynchronized,buthehasnotyetwonover
thesubjectandstarofthefilm.Foryears,heandFranklinhavetussledover
permissions,rights,andcontracts.TheTellurideFilmFestivalwasscheduledto
showAmazingGracelastSeptember,butFranklinslawyersfiledsuit.Judge
JohnKane,oftheU.S.DistrictCourtinColorado,heldaslapped-together
seventy-one-minutehearingtheafternoonbeforethescreening.Franklintestified
bytelephone.

ForthemtoshowthatfilmandforElliotttojustcompletelyandtotallyand
blatantlyignoremewheremynameandreputation,myconcern,itwouldbe
terrible,shesaid.Thisismyfifty-fifthyearinthebusiness,andheisallbut
fearless.

Elliottwasproposingonlytoshowthefilmtoacoupleofhundredpeopleat
Telluride,wherethegoalwastofindadistributor.Hetoldmethathehasoffered
topayherfarmoreamilliondollarsandhalftheproceedsthanshewas
originallypromised.Astheynegotiated,Elliottandhisrepresentativesalso
encounteredaqualityofchaosthatoftensurroundsFranklinsbusinessaffairs.
Lawyersandagentscameandwent.Franklin,whoisthewariestofpersonalities,
deflectedanddelayed,evenassomeofherclosestfriendsencouragedherto
settlethedealandenjoytheinevitableattentionthatwouldcomewithAmazing
Grace.

Arethagetsoffendedwhenshethinksyouthinkyouregettingoveronher,
TavisSmileytoldme.Itshardtoknowwhythatlinegetsblurredfromtimeto
time,betweenmakingpeoplerespectyouandself-sabotage.Butdontever
underestimatethepowerofthepersonal.RespectisnotjustasongtoAretha.
Itsthemantraforherlife.

Arethaauthorizesherownreality,andsometimesitshardtojuxtaposethat
realitytothereality,hewenton.Wereallguiltyofthatattimes,butAretha
doesthattoagreaterextent,anditcanbedangerous.Sometimes,inlife,wecan
unwittinglyself-sabotagewhenwewantultimatecontrol.

InDenver,JudgeKanewasprotectiveofFranklin,issuingtheinjunctionagainst
thescreeninginTellurideforthatevening.Inhisruling,hequotedOthello:He
thatfilchesfrommemygoodnamerobsmeofthatwhichnotenricheshimand
makesmepoorindeed.ElliottandFranklinhavemeanwhileinchedtowarda
settlement.WhenthehopearosethatAmazingGracewasapossibilityforthe
TribecaFilmFestival,comingnextmonth,RobertDeNirocalledFranklinand
imploredhertomakeithappen.Thatisunlikelytooccur.

WatchingArethaFranklinsingfromthepulpitandatthepianosomehow
intensifieseverythingheardontherecord.Itsalmosttoomuchtoabsorbinone
ortwoviewings.Ivewatcheditahalf-dozentimes,anditneverfailstoleaveme
intears.ThemosttouchingmomentinthefilmcomeswhenJamesCleveland
gesturestoC.L.Franklin,whoissittingupfront,nexttoClaraWard.The
Reverendcannotresistapridefulstarturnatthepulpit.

Ittookmeallthewaybacktothelivingroomathomewhenshewassixand
sevenyearsofage,ittookmebacktoabouteleven,whenshestartedtravelling
withmeontheroad,singinggospel,hesays.IsawyoucryingandIsawyou
responding,butIwasjustabouttobustwideopen.Youtalkaboutbeingmoved,
notonlybecauseArethaismydaughter....Arethaisjustastonesinger.

ThenArethasitsatthepianoandleanshardintoNeverGrowOld.Asshe
sweatsunderthelights,herfatherapproachesheratthepianoandtenderlymops
herforeheadwithahandkerchief.

YoucanhearArethasinfluenceacrossthelandscapeofAmericanmusic,no
matterthegenre,Obamawroteme.Whatotherartisthadthatkindofimpact?
Dylan.MaybeStevie,RayCharles.TheBeatlesandtheStonesbut,ofcourse,
theyreimports.ThejazzgiantslikeArmstrong.Butitsashortlist.AndifIm
strandedonadesertisland,andhavetenrecordstotake,Iknowshesinthe
collection.Forshellremindmeofmyhumanity.Whatsessentialinallofus.
Andshejustsoundssodamngood.Heresatip:whenyouredeejayingaparty,
openwithRockSteady.

WiththebreadthofArethasinfluencecomestheregularityofmusicalhomage.
Thetitansofhip-hopadoreher.MosDefsampledOneStepAhead,onMs.
FatBooty.KanyeWestsampledSpiritintheDark,onSchoolSpirit.Alicia
KeyssampledANaturalWoman,andDr.DreandOutkast,inaccordancewith
thesageadviceoftheirCommander-in-Chief,sampledRockSteady.The
Fugees,PublicEnemy,SlumVillageArethaiseverywhere.Thereisno
FormationwithoutRespect.Onequeenfollowsanother.

Beyoncmayhaveoversteppedononeoccasion,butsheknewthescore.A
singerlikeher,whoissteepedinboththesacredandtheprofane,whocan
provideflawlessversionsofbothPreciousLordandBootylicious,
understandsthevariousnessofherrootsandthespecificityofherdebts.The
soulfulnesscomesfromthegospel,sheoncesaid.ItcomesfromAretha,who
listenedtoallofthat,whosanginthechurch.

ThemorningaftertheWindsorconcert,IwenttoSundayservicesatthe
Franklinsoldchurch,NewBethelBaptist.Arrivinghalfanhourearly,ImetC.L.
Franklinssuccessor,PastorRobertSmith,Jr.,astoutgray-hairedmaninadark
three-piecesuit.

PastorSmithledmetothehistoryroom,whichwasfilledwithphotographs
andsouvenirsoftheFranklins.Thesanctuarycanholdacoupleofthousand
worshippers,butthestreamofpeoplearrivingwasmodest.Thedaysofvitality,
ofParadiseValleyandBlackBottom,arelonggone.TheworkersforFordand
GeneralMotorswentSouth.Therearefewmiddle-classparishionersleftatNew
Bethel.Myappealislargelytothebroken,PastorSmithsaid.Peoplecoming
fromprison,drugs.Mystyleofpreachingdoesntappealtotheprofessionals.A
lotofthemaregoingofftothemega-churches.

ItsbeenalongtimesinceNewBethelechoedwithTheEagleStirrethHer
Nest.Earlyonemorningin1979,sixburglarsbrokeintoC.L.Franklinshouse.
Franklinkeptaguninhisroomandfiredtwoerrantshots.Oneoftheburglars
firedback,hittinghimonceinthekneeandonceinthegroin,rupturinghis
femoralartery.Hespentfiveyearsinacomaanddied.Hisfuneralwasamongthe
largestinthehistoryofDetroit.

Likeothers,PastorSmithhashadhisrockymomentswithArethaFranklinover
theyears,andiscarefulnottooffendher.ArethaissupportiveofNewBethel
sendingmoneyandfoodpackages,organizingtheoccasionalgospelconcert
andtheirrelations,hesays,arebetternowthantheyvebeen,butitsaday-to-
daything.TheimportanceofArethaFranklin,hemadeclear,isthesenseof
higherthingsthathermusicinspires.

Therestisdross.Hergenius,hercentralplaceinAmericanmusicandspirit,is
undeniable.

IdontcarewhattheysayaboutAretha,BillyPreston,whodiedin2006,once
said.ShecanbehidingoutinherhouseinDetroitforyears.Shecangodecades
withouttakingaplaneorflyingofftoEurope.Shecancancelhalfhergigsand
infuriateeveryproducerandpromoterinthecountry.Shecansingallkindsof
jive-asssongsthatarebeneathher.Shecangointoherdivaactandturnoffthe
world.Butonanygivennight,whenthatladysitsdownatthepianoandgetsher
bodyandsoulalloversomerighteoussong,shellscaretheshitoutofyou.And
youllknowyoullswearthatshesstillthebestfuckinsingerthisfucked-up
countryhaseverproduced.

Signupforthedailynewsletter:thebestofTheNewYorkerevery
day.
 From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
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Sent:Tuesday,March08,20168:48AM
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Date:Tue,Mar8,2016at11:43AM
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To:

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:ForeignPolicy<fp@foreignpolicy.com>
Date:Tue,Mar8,2016at8:06AM
Subject:SituationReport
To:waz2102@columbia.edu

S i t u a t i o n R e p o r t : S o m a l i a s t r i k e s a n d t h e c o m i n g d r o n e d a t a L i b y a p l a n s r e v e a l e d G i t m o d e t a i n e e s r e t u r n t o t h e f i g h t , t h e P e n t a g o n s n e w s h i p k i l l i n g m i s s i l e a n d l o t s m o r e

Ifyouhaveproblemsviewingthisemail,viewitinabrowser.Pleasefeelfreetoforwardittoafriend.

SITUATIONREPORT

TheNationalSecurityDailyBrieffromForeign
Policy

Tuesday,March8,2016 SUBSCRIBETOFP

FollowUs:

ByPaulMcLearywithAdamRawnsley

Moneytrail.AnunpublishedreportbyaU.N.panelresponsibleforenforcingexisting
NorthKoreansanctionssuggeststhatChinahasbeenlaxinensuringthecurrent
measureswerecarriedout,accordingtoFPsColumLynch,whoobtainedacopyof
thedocument.ThereportalsocitesevidencethatPyongyangmovedtensofmillionsof
dollarsthroughaSingaporeanbranchofChinasbiggestbanktoevadesanctions.
Beijinghashelduppublicationofthereviewfortwoweeks,thoughcopieshavestarted
 toleak.

Jointheclub.Finlandishavingaseriousnationaldebateoverwhetherornottojoin
theNATOalliance,somethingthecountryhasavoideddoingfordecadesasitsoughtto
keepthingscoolwithbothRussiaandtheWest.FPsReidStandishhasagreat
pieceonhowFinlandhasmanagedtobalancerelations--andeconomicties--with
bothsides,butisrethinkingthingsnowthatRussiahasgrownincreasinglyaggressive,
andMoscowsstrugglingeconomymakesamovetotheWestaneasierplayforthe
Finnisheconomy.

Syria

Latelastmonth,theStateDepartmenttweetedtoSyrians,offeringcontactinfoand
askingthemtoreportanyviolationsoftherecently-inkedcessationofhostilitiestheU.S.
negotiatedwithRussia.NowStatewouldlikeSyrianstoknowthatthey've
finallyhiredactualArabicspeakerswhocanunderstandthosereportswhentheycome
in.TheturnaboutcomesafterSyriaDirect,anon-profitSyrianjournalism
organization,reportedonanumberofattemptsbylocalstoreportviolationsofthe
ceasefire,whichendedwithcallersconcluding"wedontthinktheyunderstoodwhatwe
weresaying.

SouthKorea

SouthKorea'sNationalIntelligenceService(NIS)saysthatNorthKoreahashackedthe
phonesofseniorSouthKoreangovernmentofficials,SouthKoreanfinancialnetworks,
andbegunpreparationstohackcriticalinfrastructuresystemscontrollingrailways.The
revelationcomesastheSouthKoreanintelligenceserviceispushingforanew
cybersecuritybilltograntitmorepowerstocombatNorthKoreanhackers.TheNISsaid
thattheattacksagainstseniorleaders'phoneswascarriedoutbysendingtext
messageswithlinkstomalicioussoftware.

Olddogssinkships

TheU.S.Navyhasbreathednewlifeintoanexistingairdefensemissilebyturningitinto
ashipkiller,BreakingDefensereports.TheSM-6missilewasdesignedtoknockout
planesandcruisemissiles,butanewtestagainstadecommissionedfrigateactingasa
dummytargetshowedthattheSM-6canbeusedasananti-shipmissile,aswell.The
additionalcapabilityallowsU.S.Navyshipstobemoreflexibleinthekindsoftargetsthey
canengage,andisanothermoveinwhatisshapinguptobeaminiarmsracewiththe
Chinesenavytodevelopweaponsthatcantargetshipsatlongerdistances.

AirForce

SenatorJohnMcCain(R-Ariz.)isholdingtheU.S.AirForce'sfeettothefireoverthe
newB-21bomber,askingofficialshowtheycanbesurethatthenextgenerationbomber
won'tsufferthroughbillionsofdollarsincostoverrunsliketheperpetuallytroubledF-35.
TheAirForceTimesreportsthatMcCainsaidhe's"seriouslyconcernedaboutthe
acquisitionstrategy"forthenewbomber.OfparticularconcernisthestructureoftheB-
21contract,whichoffersbonusesforcontractorsmeetingdevelopmentmilestonesand
whichdetractorssayaregivenalltooeasily,despitepoorperformances.

RegisteratForeignPolicy.comtoreceiveSituationReportandotherFPnewsletters.

TRENDINGONFOREIGNPOLICY.COM


Thisemailwassenttowaz2102@columbia.edubyfp@foreignpolicy.com.

UPDATEPROFILE ADVERTISE ForeignPolicyMagazineispublishedbytheFPGroup,a
divisionofGrahamHoldingsCompany.Allcontents2016The
UNSUBSCRIBE GROUPSALESAND
SlateGroup,LLC.Allrightsreserved.ForeignPolicy,11DUPONT
LICENSING
PRIVACYPOLICY CIRCLENW,SUITE600,WASHINGTONDC20036

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:VRT
Date:Tue,Mar8,2016at10:45AM
Subject:UkrainesUS-bornfinanceministerintalksontoppost
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

FinancialTimes
UkrainesUS-bornfinanceministerintalksontoppost

ByNeilBuckleyandRomanOlearchykinKiev

March8,20162:11pm

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9aab135a-e52a-11e5-bc31-138df2ae9ee6.html#axzz42KGRAllB

NatalieJareskoisconsideredthecandidatemostlikelytostanduptoUkraine'soligarchs

NatalieJaresko,UkrainesUS-bornfinanceminister,hasheldtalksonleadinganewtechnocratic,reformist
governmentamidintensehigh-levelpoliticalmanoeuvring.

MsJareskowasofferedtheprimeministerspositionmorethan10daysagobyrepresentativesof
PresidentPetroPoroshenkoandArsenyYatseniuk,thecurrentpremier.Bothofferedthesupportoftheir
parliamentarypartiesandfreedomfrominterference,saidpeoplefamiliarwiththematter.

Theformerfundmanager,whotookUkrainiancitizenshiptojointhegovernmentinlate2014,spentlastweek
workingonanadministrationandprogramme,theyadded.

Buttalksstalledlatelastweek,withMrPoroshenkoandMrYatseniukapparentlyshiftingtofavouran
alternativeplantomakeVolodymyrHroysman,theparliamentspeaker,headofthegovernmentinstead.

Aseniorofficial,speakingonconditionofanonymity,toldtheFinancialTimesthatMsJareskohadnotbeen
ruledoutaspremierandwasstillinthegame.

Politicaluncertaintythreatenstocutrecession-ravagedUkraineofffrombadlyneededinternationalfinancial
supportwhilefightingwithRussian-backedseparatistsinbreakawayeasternregionscontinuestosmoulder.

MsJareskoishighlyregardedbyinvestorsandUkrainesinternationalpartners,whowouldbelikelyto
consideratechnocraticgovernmentledbyherasthebestguaranteeofcontinuingstructuralreformsand
effortstofightendemiccorruption.

AnadministrationledbyMrHroysmanisconsideredlesslikelytowithstandpressurefrompowerfulvested
interests,includingbillionaireoligarchs,andfromthepresident,ofwhomMrHroysmanisconsideredaclose
confidant.

MsJareskoisunlikelytoagreetoserveinsuchagovernment,peoplefamiliarwiththemattersay,whichcould
jeopardisethesupportoflenderssuchastheInternationalMonetaryFund.

Athirdscenariocouldbeearlyelections.Buttheseareunlikelytobeheldbeforetheautumn,potentially
throwingthecountryintosixmonthsofpoliticaluncertaintyandderailingreformeffortsinthemeantime.

MrPoroshenkoandMrYatseniukwanttoavoidearlypolls,politicalinsiderssay,afterasharpfallinsupport
forthemandtheirparties.TheyfeartheirpartiescouldloseMPsandvotestogroupsledbyYulia
Tymoshenko,theformerpremier,andMikheilSaakashvili,theformerGeorgianpresidentwhoisnowgovernor
ofUkrainesOdessaregionandisformingananti-corruptionparty.

TheUS,Ukrainesbiggestinternationalbacker,isalsothoughttowanttoavoidearlypolls.Butsomeanalysts
warnhavingMsJaresko,aformerUSdiplomat,aspremierrisksplayingintoRussianpropagandaeffortsto
portrayKievasapuppetofWashington.

UkrainewasplungedintopoliticalcrisislastmonthbytheresignationofAivarasAbromavicius,theeconomy
ministerwhoclaimedassociatesofthepresidentandprimeministerweretryingtoblockanti-corruption
reforms.MrAbromaviciuscalledforformationofanon-politicaltechnocraticgovernmentheadedbyMs
Jaresko.

WhileMrYatseniuksurvivedaparliamentaryno-confidencevote,hewasweakenedafterMPssupporteda
motioncondemningthegovernmentsrecordandsomemembersofthegoverningcoalitionpulledout.

TheIMFhasalsoineffectsuspendeddisbursementofthenexttrancheofan$18.5bnsupportpackageuntilit
isconfidentafunctionalgovernmentcapableofcontinuingreformsisinplace.

UkrainesfinanceministryhasdeclinedtocommentonwhetherMsJareskocouldbepoisedtoheadanew
government.InaTVinterviewonSunday,MrYatseniuksaidnooneelsehadproposedaworkable
governmentandcoalitionandpleadedforsupportforhisadministrationasitcontinuedtowork.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MarthaKebalo<mkebalo@aol.com>
Date:Tue,Mar8,2016at7:46AM
Subject:FreeSavchenko:OpenlettertoEuropeanleaders
To:mkebalo@aol.com


Morethan270prominentpersonalitiessignedtheinternationalappealtofree
UkrainianpilotNadiaSavchenko

Morethan 270leadingpersonalities(Nobelprizeawardees,writers,professors,politicians,civicactivists,
philosophers,artists)representingatleast 20countriesworldwidehavesignedtherespectiveopenletterto
Europeanleaders.

Theyhavecalledonthemtotakeemergencymeasureswiththegoaloftheimmediateandunconditional
releaseof34-year-oldNadiaSavchenko,aUkrainiancitizen,kidnappedandimprisonedformorethantwenty
monthsintheRussianFederationandconcludedthatourabilitytosaveherlifewilltesttheeffectivenessof
internationaldiplomacyandourcommitmenttoEuropeanvalues.

Amongthesignatoriesofthispetitionare

SvitlanaAleksievich,writer,NobelPrizeWinnerinLiterature(Belarus)
ElfriedeJelinek,writer,NobelprizeWinnerinLiterature(Austria)
TomasVenclova,writer(Lithuania/USA)
MarkusMeckel,GermanyFormerMinisterofForeignAffairs(Germany)
PhilippedeSuremain,formerAmbassadorofFranceinUkraine(France)
GuyVerhofstadt,PresidentoftheGroupofAllianceofLiberalsandDemocratsforEuropeintheEuropean
Parliament,formerPrimeMinisterofBelgium(Belgium)
JerzyBuzek,formerpresidentoftheEuropeanParliament
VictorShenderovich,writer(Russia)
AgnieszkaHolland,filmdirector(Poland)
LuboDobrovsk,ministeratVaclavHavelPresidency,formerAmbassadorofCzechRepublicto
RussianFederation(CzechRepublic)
MikhailEpstein,ProfessorofCulturalTheoryandRussianLiterature,EmoryUniversity,Atlanta(USA)
PeterPomerantsev,writer,journalist(UK)
FedorGl,writer(Slovakia)
ManfredBaechler,Zurych,microbiologist(Switzerland)
IlianVassilev,formerAmbassadorofBulgariatoRussia,ManagingPartnerInnovativeEnergySolutions
Ltd.(Bulgaria)
RaduMagdin,analitykanalyst,formeradvisortoPrimeMinister(Romania)
AdriaanvanDis,writer(Netherlands)
ZsfiaBn,writer(Hungary)
LidijaDimkovska,poet,interpreter(Slovenia,Macedonia)
ArisFioretos,writer(Sweden)
LauraMincer,Professor,UniversityofGenova(Italy)
CarmenClaudn,SeniorResearchFellowAssociateCIDOB,BarcelonaCentreforInternational
Affairs(Spain)
JankaVukmir,arthistorian(Croatia)

Altogethermorethan5000signatureswerecollectedjustwithin1day,sincethisinitiativewaslaunchedbya
groupofPolishandUkrainianintellectuals.

Anybodywillingtojointhisinitiativeandtosignthebelowmentionedletterisfreetodoso
athttp://freesavchenko.tilda.ws/or

http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/free-savchenko-open-letter-to-european-leaders.


TheletterhasbeeninitiatedbyOlaHnatiuk(ola.hnatiuk@gmail.com),aUkrainian/Polishintellectual,historian
andwriter.

Theletterandthelistofsignatoriescanbefoundherehttp://freesavchenko.tilda.ws/

OpenlettertoEuropeanleaders

Weappealtoyoutotakeemergencymeasureswiththegoaloftheimmediateandunconditionalreleaseof34-
year-oldNadiaSavchenko,aUkrainiancitizen,kidnappedandimprisonedformorethantwentymonthsinthe
RussianFederation.

TheRussianauthoritieshavemadeamockeryofcivilrights,internationallaw,andtheirownConstitution.They
showdisdainfortheinternationalcommunityandtheMinskProtocolalike.

Sofar,alleffortsoftheinternationalcommunityhaveprovenunsuccessful.OnMarch4,inprotestagainstthe
proceedingsoftheRussiancourt,NadiaSavchenkoannouncedafullhungerstrike,refusingevenliquids.Our
abilitytosaveherlifewilltesttheeffectivenessofinternationaldiplomacyandourcommitmenttoEuropeanvalues.

ThefinalspeechofNadiaSavchenkointhecourt:

Iwanttoapologizetotheaudienceformyemotionalbehaviour.Thefactis,it'sverydifficulttolistentothesame
liesoverandoveragainforsixmonthsandthenhearthemrepeatedalldaylong.Therefore,Icouldn'thelpreacting
totheprosecutor'sspeechlikeIdid.

Now,regardingthedebate.Duringthislongandtedioussix-monthtrialwelearnedthatguiltwasproveninthe
courseofthejudicialprocess.ThatguiltisoftheRussianjournalists[Savchenkoisaccusedofinvolvementin
thedeathsoftwoRussianjournalists].Theyareguiltyoflyingandofprovidingfalse,distortedinformation
regardingeventsinUkraine,theworld,andinRussia.Theyaretoblameforneglectingtheirownsecurity.Ifthey
hadwornbodyarmour,theywouldhavesurvived.Iftheyhadnothungaroundwheretheyshouldn'thave,theywould
havestayedalive.

RussianTVchannelswerealsofoundguilty.Channels,theirownersandtheireditorsareguiltyforsendingtheir
people-unprepared,unprotected-totheircertaindeath,justforthesakeofspreadingprettypicturesandfalse
information.Theywantedtoboosttheirratingsandmadeaquickbuck.Buttheyabsolutelydonotcareabouttheir
journalists.TheyaretheoneswhoareaboveallresponsibleforthedeathsofKorneliukandVoloshin[thetwo
RussianjournalistswhosedeathsSavchenkoisaccusedofinvolvementin].

WewatchedhereavideoofRussia'sChannel5,inwhichareportersaidUkrainianmediawerelyingand
KorneliukandVoloshiinfactwerewearinghelmetsandbodyarmour.Buteveninthisverycourtroomithasbeen
proventheyhadneitherhelmetsnorbodyarmour.WecanarriveatthatconclusionthatRussianTVchannelsare
tellinglies.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:Deychak,Orest<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
Date:Tue,Mar8,2016at10:35AM
Subject:Ukraine:WH,State,FT,AC,NYT[VPOTUS'MovingTributetoNadia]
To:"Deychak,Orest"<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
TheWhiteHouse

OfficeoftheVicePresident

ForImmediateRelease

March08,2016

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/03/08/statement-vice-president-joe-biden-unjust-detention-nadiya-savchenko

StatementbyVicePresidentJoeBidenontheUnjustDetentionofNadiyaSavchenko

LastDecember,IhadthegreathonorofaddressingtheUkrainianRada.Ispoketothemabouthow,asmembersofUkraines
parliament,theyhadtheopportunitytowriteanewfuturefortheircountry.ButoneRadamemberwasnotablymissingthatday
NadiyaSavchenko.Instead,herphotohungfromthespeakerspodiumasareminderofherongoingstruggle.

NadiyahasbeenunjustlyimprisonedinRussiasince2014detainedandfacingtrialontrumpedupcharges.Nadiyawas
proudlyservinghercountryasamemberoftheUkrainianarmedforces,fightingintheeasternpartofthecountrywhenshewas
abductedbyseparatistsandtakenacrosstheborderagainstherwill.

Duringthepast20months,shehasbecomeasymbolofUkrainiannationalprideandstrength.Shewasevenelectedtothe
Radafromherprisoncell.HerunlawfulcontinuingdetentionisaclearviolationofRussiascommitmentundertheMinsk
agreements,andsheshouldbefreedatonce.Recently,Nadiyahasbegunanewhungerstriketoprotestherdetention,andher
healthhasbeguntodeteriorateafterfivedayswithnofoodorliquids.

Today,aswemarkInternationalWomensDayandhonorallthebravewomenwhostruggleagainstinjusticeinthisworld,we
alsostandwithNadiyaandwiththeUkrainianpeople.AndwecallonRussiatomaketherightchoicetodropallchargesand
releaseheratonce.NadiyadeservestogohometoherfamilyandfriendsandjoinherfellowRadamemberstobeginshapinga
newUkraine.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Tue,Mar8,2016at10:55AM
Subject:RussianTVmilitarisesInternationalWomen'sDay-BBCNews
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-35746048

RussianTVmilitarisesInternationalWomen'sDay
 REN
TVTheRussianTulipself-propelledgunisusedtopromoteInternationalWomen'sDay

ARussianTVstationhascomeupwithanovel-andsomewouldsayinappropriate-wayofmarking
InternationalWomen'sDayon8March.

AsRENTVitselfputit,"insteadoftheexpectedspringbouquets,thechannelwillshowmilitaryequipmentthatis
namedafterflowers".Accordingly,overthepastfewdays,thechannel,whichisownedbybusinessmenclosetothe
Kremlin,haspunctuateditsprogrammeswith10-secondanimatedclipsshowingtheTulipself-propelledgun,the
AcaciaHowitzerandtheHyacinthfieldgun.

"Russianspring,Russianflowers-dearwomen,wewishyouahappyholidayon8MarchfromRENTV,"themale
voice-oversaystotheaccompanimentofvaguelymartialbrassfanfaresanddrumrolls.Theseeminglyinnocent
referencetothe"Russianspring"hasasecond,morepoliticalmeaning-asthetermappliedbynationaliststoRussia's
militaryinterventioninUkraine.

Anotherlonger8Marchclipshowsayoungblonde,blue-eyedwomaninclose-upansweringquestionsabouther
lifestyle.Shedoesn'tlikehigh-heels,herfavouritedogisanAlsatian,andherfavourflowerisCheremukha,atypeof
cherryblossom.Thecamerathencutsawaytorevealthattheyoungwomanisdressedintheuniformofariot
policeofficer.ItalsoshowsthatCheremukhais,asmostRussiansknow,anothernameforteargas.

Manysocialmediausershavereactedwithhumourtotheclips."RussianTVknowswhatwomenwant,"onewrote
onthepopularplatformVKontakte.

ButpopularUkrainianbloggerIgorBigdandeploredthemasanothersignoftheongoing"militarisation"of
Russiansociety.Thishasincludedthedominationofthenewsbymilitaryconflict,afashionforhiringoutmilitary
vehiclesforweddings,arangeofpropagandaT-shirtsshowingnuclearmissilesandthereintroductionofReadyfor
LabourandDefenceoftheUSSR,orGTO-acivildefenceprogrammewhichhadbeenphasedoutaftertheendof
theSovietUnion.

"Whatwillbenext,"Bigdanwondered,"TheNewYear'streedecoratedwithgrenadesandammunitionbelts?"


RENTVRiotgear,abigdogandacanisterofteargasarepropsforInternationalWomen'sDayonRussianTV

Use#NewsfromElsewheretostayup-to-datewithourreportsvia
Twitter.

-----OriginalMessage-----

From:CivicSectorofEuroMaidan

To:vikohut@msn.com

Sent:Tuesday,March08,20161:50AM

Subject:UkraineinformationnewsletterNo.118
 DearfriendsofUkraine,

Nobreakthroughduring'NormandyFour'meeting.Complete
breakdowncouldleadtoaspiralofviolenceineastern
Ukraine.

WhentheshakyceasefirebrokeredbyRussiaandtheUnited
StateskickedinthisweekinSyria,almostimmediately,
Moscowbeganre-escalatingtheconflictineasternUkraine.
Press-centerofCivicSectorofEuroMaidan
KaterynaMaksym
tel.+38(066)6906927 Jareskoemergesastopcandidateforprimeminister.
e-mail:katerynamaksym69@gmail.com
'WeneedtohaveUkraineontheagenda'.Theresults
ofUkraineWeekinBrussels.
www.facebook.com/hrom.sektor.euromaidan

Howareferendumonceintroducedastheultimateformof
Previousissuesofournewsletterare democracyhasbeenhijackedinHolland,andisservingthose
availableatNationalUniversityofKyiv- inRussiawhosebasicrulesofthegamearesimplethatthe
MohylaAcademyelectronic EUshouldcrumble.
repositoryhttp://goo.gl/twRKkW
'IWillReturnToUkraine,DeadOrAlive'
Youcansubscribetothenewsletter Savchenko.Savchenkoslaststatementtocourt
online.Savchenkoannounceshungerstrikewithoutwater.
athttp://eepurl.com/bByY49


Ifyouwishtoreceivethisnewsletter,orifyou
wouldliketounsubscribe,pleaseemail 20Ukraine-basedcompaniesmakeitonlistofEuropes
KaterynaMaksym fastest-growingprivatefirms.
atkaterynamaksym69@gmail.com
Anancient3000y.o.ScythianstatuefoundinUkraine.
TheTarasShevchenkoNationalPrizeswereawardedtopainter
MykhailoGuida,publicistLevkoLukyanenko,balletmaster
RaduPoklitaru,directorOlegSentsovandartistAngelina
Shvachka.

PleasereadmoreaboutthenewdevelopmentsinUkrainein
theinformationnewsletterNo.118online.
Weapologizefortechnicalproblemswithaccesslastweek.

Copyright*|2015|**|CivicSectorofEuroMaidan|*,Allrightsreserved.

Youcansubscribetothenewsletterathttp://eepurl.com/bByY49
 Ourmailingaddressis:
katerynamaksym69@gmail.com

 From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 03/08/201612:31:37PM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[CATCHINGTHEHEADLINESONTHEROAD]QuickCheckonFPSitRep.....FT:UkrainesUS-bornfinanceministerintalksontop
Subject:
post......FreeSavchenko:OpenLettertoEuroLeaders......[OD]VPOTUS'MovingTributetoNadiaonInt'lWomen'sDay.....[Com...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Tuesday,March08,20168:48AM
Subject:Fwd:[CATCHINGTHEHEADLINESONTHEROAD]QuickCheckonFPSitRep.....FT:UkrainesUS-bornfinanceministerintalks
ontoppost......FreeSavchenko:OpenLettertoEuroLeaders......[OD]VPOTUS'MovingTributetoNadiaonInt'lWomen'sDay.....[Com...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Tue,Mar8,2016at11:43AM
Subject:[CATCHINGTHEHEADLINESONTHEROAD]QuickCheckonFPSitRep.....FT:UkrainesUS-bornfinance
ministerintalksontoppost......FreeSavchenko:OpenLettertoEuroLeaders......[OD]VPOTUS'MovingTributetoNadiaon
Int'lWomen'sDay.....[Compare/Contrast]RUMilitarizesInt'lWomen'sDay......CivicSectorInfoLetter118[StoriestoWatch]
To:

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:ForeignPolicy<fp@foreignpolicy.com>
Date:Tue,Mar8,2016at8:06AM
Subject:SituationReport
To:waz2102@columbia.edu

S i t u a t i o n R e p o r t : S o m a l i a s t r i k e s a n d t h e c o m i n g d r o n e d a t a L i b y a p l a n s r e v e a l e d G i t m o d e t a i n e e s r e t u r n t o t h e f i g h t , t h e P e n t a g o n s n e w s h i p k i l l i n g m i s s i l e a n d l o t s m o r e

Ifyouhaveproblemsviewingthisemail,viewitinabrowser.Pleasefeelfreetoforwardittoafriend.

SITUATIONREPORT

TheNationalSecurityDailyBrieffromForeign
Policy

Tuesday,March8,2016 SUBSCRIBETOFP

FollowUs:

ByPaulMcLearywithAdamRawnsley

Moneytrail.AnunpublishedreportbyaU.N.panelresponsibleforenforcingexisting
NorthKoreansanctionssuggeststhatChinahasbeenlaxinensuringthecurrent
measureswerecarriedout,accordingtoFPsColumLynch,whoobtainedacopyof
thedocument.ThereportalsocitesevidencethatPyongyangmovedtensofmillionsof
dollarsthroughaSingaporeanbranchofChinasbiggestbanktoevadesanctions.
Beijinghashelduppublicationofthereviewfortwoweeks,thoughcopieshavestarted
 toleak.

Jointheclub.Finlandishavingaseriousnationaldebateoverwhetherornottojoin
theNATOalliance,somethingthecountryhasavoideddoingfordecadesasitsoughtto
keepthingscoolwithbothRussiaandtheWest.FPsReidStandishhasagreat
pieceonhowFinlandhasmanagedtobalancerelations--andeconomicties--with
bothsides,butisrethinkingthingsnowthatRussiahasgrownincreasinglyaggressive,
andMoscowsstrugglingeconomymakesamovetotheWestaneasierplayforthe
Finnisheconomy.

Syria

Latelastmonth,theStateDepartmenttweetedtoSyrians,offeringcontactinfoand
askingthemtoreportanyviolationsoftherecently-inkedcessationofhostilitiestheU.S.
negotiatedwithRussia.NowStatewouldlikeSyrianstoknowthatthey've
finallyhiredactualArabicspeakerswhocanunderstandthosereportswhentheycome
in.TheturnaboutcomesafterSyriaDirect,anon-profitSyrianjournalism
organization,reportedonanumberofattemptsbylocalstoreportviolationsofthe
ceasefire,whichendedwithcallersconcluding"wedontthinktheyunderstoodwhatwe
weresaying.

SouthKorea

SouthKorea'sNationalIntelligenceService(NIS)saysthatNorthKoreahashackedthe
phonesofseniorSouthKoreangovernmentofficials,SouthKoreanfinancialnetworks,
andbegunpreparationstohackcriticalinfrastructuresystemscontrollingrailways.The
revelationcomesastheSouthKoreanintelligenceserviceispushingforanew
cybersecuritybilltograntitmorepowerstocombatNorthKoreanhackers.TheNISsaid
thattheattacksagainstseniorleaders'phoneswascarriedoutbysendingtext
messageswithlinkstomalicioussoftware.

Olddogssinkships

TheU.S.Navyhasbreathednewlifeintoanexistingairdefensemissilebyturningitinto
ashipkiller,BreakingDefensereports.TheSM-6missilewasdesignedtoknockout
planesandcruisemissiles,butanewtestagainstadecommissionedfrigateactingasa
dummytargetshowedthattheSM-6canbeusedasananti-shipmissile,aswell.The
additionalcapabilityallowsU.S.Navyshipstobemoreflexibleinthekindsoftargetsthey
canengage,andisanothermoveinwhatisshapinguptobeaminiarmsracewiththe
Chinesenavytodevelopweaponsthatcantargetshipsatlongerdistances.

AirForce

SenatorJohnMcCain(R-Ariz.)isholdingtheU.S.AirForce'sfeettothefireoverthe
newB-21bomber,askingofficialshowtheycanbesurethatthenextgenerationbomber
won'tsufferthroughbillionsofdollarsincostoverrunsliketheperpetuallytroubledF-35.
TheAirForceTimesreportsthatMcCainsaidhe's"seriouslyconcernedaboutthe
acquisitionstrategy"forthenewbomber.OfparticularconcernisthestructureoftheB-
21contract,whichoffersbonusesforcontractorsmeetingdevelopmentmilestonesand
whichdetractorssayaregivenalltooeasily,despitepoorperformances.

RegisteratForeignPolicy.comtoreceiveSituationReportandotherFPnewsletters.

TRENDINGONFOREIGNPOLICY.COM


Thisemailwassenttowaz2102@columbia.edubyfp@foreignpolicy.com.

UPDATEPROFILE ADVERTISE ForeignPolicyMagazineispublishedbytheFPGroup,a
divisionofGrahamHoldingsCompany.Allcontents2016The
UNSUBSCRIBE GROUPSALESAND
SlateGroup,LLC.Allrightsreserved.ForeignPolicy,11DUPONT
LICENSING
PRIVACYPOLICY CIRCLENW,SUITE600,WASHINGTONDC20036

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:VRT
Date:Tue,Mar8,2016at10:45AM
Subject:UkrainesUS-bornfinanceministerintalksontoppost
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

FinancialTimes
UkrainesUS-bornfinanceministerintalksontoppost

ByNeilBuckleyandRomanOlearchykinKiev

March8,20162:11pm

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9aab135a-e52a-11e5-bc31-138df2ae9ee6.html#axzz42KGRAllB

NatalieJareskoisconsideredthecandidatemostlikelytostanduptoUkraine'soligarchs

NatalieJaresko,UkrainesUS-bornfinanceminister,hasheldtalksonleadinganewtechnocratic,reformist
governmentamidintensehigh-levelpoliticalmanoeuvring.

MsJareskowasofferedtheprimeministerspositionmorethan10daysagobyrepresentativesof
PresidentPetroPoroshenkoandArsenyYatseniuk,thecurrentpremier.Bothofferedthesupportoftheir
parliamentarypartiesandfreedomfrominterference,saidpeoplefamiliarwiththematter.

Theformerfundmanager,whotookUkrainiancitizenshiptojointhegovernmentinlate2014,spentlastweek
workingonanadministrationandprogramme,theyadded.

Buttalksstalledlatelastweek,withMrPoroshenkoandMrYatseniukapparentlyshiftingtofavouran
alternativeplantomakeVolodymyrHroysman,theparliamentspeaker,headofthegovernmentinstead.

Aseniorofficial,speakingonconditionofanonymity,toldtheFinancialTimesthatMsJareskohadnotbeen
ruledoutaspremierandwasstillinthegame.

Politicaluncertaintythreatenstocutrecession-ravagedUkraineofffrombadlyneededinternationalfinancial
supportwhilefightingwithRussian-backedseparatistsinbreakawayeasternregionscontinuestosmoulder.

MsJareskoishighlyregardedbyinvestorsandUkrainesinternationalpartners,whowouldbelikelyto
consideratechnocraticgovernmentledbyherasthebestguaranteeofcontinuingstructuralreformsand
effortstofightendemiccorruption.

AnadministrationledbyMrHroysmanisconsideredlesslikelytowithstandpressurefrompowerfulvested
interests,includingbillionaireoligarchs,andfromthepresident,ofwhomMrHroysmanisconsideredaclose
confidant.

MsJareskoisunlikelytoagreetoserveinsuchagovernment,peoplefamiliarwiththemattersay,whichcould
jeopardisethesupportoflenderssuchastheInternationalMonetaryFund.

Athirdscenariocouldbeearlyelections.Buttheseareunlikelytobeheldbeforetheautumn,potentially
throwingthecountryintosixmonthsofpoliticaluncertaintyandderailingreformeffortsinthemeantime.

MrPoroshenkoandMrYatseniukwanttoavoidearlypolls,politicalinsiderssay,afterasharpfallinsupport
forthemandtheirparties.TheyfeartheirpartiescouldloseMPsandvotestogroupsledbyYulia
Tymoshenko,theformerpremier,andMikheilSaakashvili,theformerGeorgianpresidentwhoisnowgovernor
ofUkrainesOdessaregionandisformingananti-corruptionparty.

TheUS,Ukrainesbiggestinternationalbacker,isalsothoughttowanttoavoidearlypolls.Butsomeanalysts
warnhavingMsJaresko,aformerUSdiplomat,aspremierrisksplayingintoRussianpropagandaeffortsto
portrayKievasapuppetofWashington.

UkrainewasplungedintopoliticalcrisislastmonthbytheresignationofAivarasAbromavicius,theeconomy
ministerwhoclaimedassociatesofthepresidentandprimeministerweretryingtoblockanti-corruption
reforms.MrAbromaviciuscalledforformationofanon-politicaltechnocraticgovernmentheadedbyMs
Jaresko.

WhileMrYatseniuksurvivedaparliamentaryno-confidencevote,hewasweakenedafterMPssupporteda
motioncondemningthegovernmentsrecordandsomemembersofthegoverningcoalitionpulledout.

TheIMFhasalsoineffectsuspendeddisbursementofthenexttrancheofan$18.5bnsupportpackageuntilit
isconfidentafunctionalgovernmentcapableofcontinuingreformsisinplace.

UkrainesfinanceministryhasdeclinedtocommentonwhetherMsJareskocouldbepoisedtoheadanew
government.InaTVinterviewonSunday,MrYatseniuksaidnooneelsehadproposedaworkable
governmentandcoalitionandpleadedforsupportforhisadministrationasitcontinuedtowork.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MarthaKebalo<mkebalo@aol.com>
Date:Tue,Mar8,2016at7:46AM
Subject:FreeSavchenko:OpenlettertoEuropeanleaders
To:mkebalo@aol.com


Morethan270prominentpersonalitiessignedtheinternationalappealtofree
UkrainianpilotNadiaSavchenko

Morethan 270leadingpersonalities(Nobelprizeawardees,writers,professors,politicians,civicactivists,
philosophers,artists)representingatleast 20countriesworldwidehavesignedtherespectiveopenletterto
Europeanleaders.

Theyhavecalledonthemtotakeemergencymeasureswiththegoaloftheimmediateandunconditional
releaseof34-year-oldNadiaSavchenko,aUkrainiancitizen,kidnappedandimprisonedformorethantwenty
monthsintheRussianFederationandconcludedthatourabilitytosaveherlifewilltesttheeffectivenessof
internationaldiplomacyandourcommitmenttoEuropeanvalues.

Amongthesignatoriesofthispetitionare

SvitlanaAleksievich,writer,NobelPrizeWinnerinLiterature(Belarus)
ElfriedeJelinek,writer,NobelprizeWinnerinLiterature(Austria)
TomasVenclova,writer(Lithuania/USA)
MarkusMeckel,GermanyFormerMinisterofForeignAffairs(Germany)
PhilippedeSuremain,formerAmbassadorofFranceinUkraine(France)
GuyVerhofstadt,PresidentoftheGroupofAllianceofLiberalsandDemocratsforEuropeintheEuropean
Parliament,formerPrimeMinisterofBelgium(Belgium)
JerzyBuzek,formerpresidentoftheEuropeanParliament
VictorShenderovich,writer(Russia)
AgnieszkaHolland,filmdirector(Poland)
LuboDobrovsk,ministeratVaclavHavelPresidency,formerAmbassadorofCzechRepublicto
RussianFederation(CzechRepublic)
MikhailEpstein,ProfessorofCulturalTheoryandRussianLiterature,EmoryUniversity,Atlanta(USA)
PeterPomerantsev,writer,journalist(UK)
FedorGl,writer(Slovakia)
ManfredBaechler,Zurych,microbiologist(Switzerland)
IlianVassilev,formerAmbassadorofBulgariatoRussia,ManagingPartnerInnovativeEnergySolutions
Ltd.(Bulgaria)
RaduMagdin,analitykanalyst,formeradvisortoPrimeMinister(Romania)
AdriaanvanDis,writer(Netherlands)
ZsfiaBn,writer(Hungary)
LidijaDimkovska,poet,interpreter(Slovenia,Macedonia)
ArisFioretos,writer(Sweden)
LauraMincer,Professor,UniversityofGenova(Italy)
CarmenClaudn,SeniorResearchFellowAssociateCIDOB,BarcelonaCentreforInternational
Affairs(Spain)
JankaVukmir,arthistorian(Croatia)

Altogethermorethan5000signatureswerecollectedjustwithin1day,sincethisinitiativewaslaunchedbya
groupofPolishandUkrainianintellectuals.

Anybodywillingtojointhisinitiativeandtosignthebelowmentionedletterisfreetodoso
athttp://freesavchenko.tilda.ws/or

http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/free-savchenko-open-letter-to-european-leaders.


TheletterhasbeeninitiatedbyOlaHnatiuk(ola.hnatiuk@gmail.com),aUkrainian/Polishintellectual,historian
andwriter.

Theletterandthelistofsignatoriescanbefoundherehttp://freesavchenko.tilda.ws/

OpenlettertoEuropeanleaders

Weappealtoyoutotakeemergencymeasureswiththegoaloftheimmediateandunconditionalreleaseof34-
year-oldNadiaSavchenko,aUkrainiancitizen,kidnappedandimprisonedformorethantwentymonthsinthe
RussianFederation.

TheRussianauthoritieshavemadeamockeryofcivilrights,internationallaw,andtheirownConstitution.They
showdisdainfortheinternationalcommunityandtheMinskProtocolalike.

Sofar,alleffortsoftheinternationalcommunityhaveprovenunsuccessful.OnMarch4,inprotestagainstthe
proceedingsoftheRussiancourt,NadiaSavchenkoannouncedafullhungerstrike,refusingevenliquids.Our
abilitytosaveherlifewilltesttheeffectivenessofinternationaldiplomacyandourcommitmenttoEuropeanvalues.

ThefinalspeechofNadiaSavchenkointhecourt:

Iwanttoapologizetotheaudienceformyemotionalbehaviour.Thefactis,it'sverydifficulttolistentothesame
liesoverandoveragainforsixmonthsandthenhearthemrepeatedalldaylong.Therefore,Icouldn'thelpreacting
totheprosecutor'sspeechlikeIdid.

Now,regardingthedebate.Duringthislongandtedioussix-monthtrialwelearnedthatguiltwasproveninthe
courseofthejudicialprocess.ThatguiltisoftheRussianjournalists[Savchenkoisaccusedofinvolvementin
thedeathsoftwoRussianjournalists].Theyareguiltyoflyingandofprovidingfalse,distortedinformation
regardingeventsinUkraine,theworld,andinRussia.Theyaretoblameforneglectingtheirownsecurity.Ifthey
hadwornbodyarmour,theywouldhavesurvived.Iftheyhadnothungaroundwheretheyshouldn'thave,theywould
havestayedalive.

RussianTVchannelswerealsofoundguilty.Channels,theirownersandtheireditorsareguiltyforsendingtheir
people-unprepared,unprotected-totheircertaindeath,justforthesakeofspreadingprettypicturesandfalse
information.Theywantedtoboosttheirratingsandmadeaquickbuck.Buttheyabsolutelydonotcareabouttheir
journalists.TheyaretheoneswhoareaboveallresponsibleforthedeathsofKorneliukandVoloshin[thetwo
RussianjournalistswhosedeathsSavchenkoisaccusedofinvolvementin].

WewatchedhereavideoofRussia'sChannel5,inwhichareportersaidUkrainianmediawerelyingand
KorneliukandVoloshiinfactwerewearinghelmetsandbodyarmour.Buteveninthisverycourtroomithasbeen
proventheyhadneitherhelmetsnorbodyarmour.WecanarriveatthatconclusionthatRussianTVchannelsare
tellinglies.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:Deychak,Orest<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
Date:Tue,Mar8,2016at10:35AM
Subject:Ukraine:WH,State,FT,AC,NYT[VPOTUS'MovingTributetoNadia]
To:"Deychak,Orest"<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
TheWhiteHouse

OfficeoftheVicePresident

ForImmediateRelease

March08,2016

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/03/08/statement-vice-president-joe-biden-unjust-detention-nadiya-savchenko

StatementbyVicePresidentJoeBidenontheUnjustDetentionofNadiyaSavchenko

LastDecember,IhadthegreathonorofaddressingtheUkrainianRada.Ispoketothemabouthow,asmembersofUkraines
parliament,theyhadtheopportunitytowriteanewfuturefortheircountry.ButoneRadamemberwasnotablymissingthatday
NadiyaSavchenko.Instead,herphotohungfromthespeakerspodiumasareminderofherongoingstruggle.

NadiyahasbeenunjustlyimprisonedinRussiasince2014detainedandfacingtrialontrumpedupcharges.Nadiyawas
proudlyservinghercountryasamemberoftheUkrainianarmedforces,fightingintheeasternpartofthecountrywhenshewas
abductedbyseparatistsandtakenacrosstheborderagainstherwill.

Duringthepast20months,shehasbecomeasymbolofUkrainiannationalprideandstrength.Shewasevenelectedtothe
Radafromherprisoncell.HerunlawfulcontinuingdetentionisaclearviolationofRussiascommitmentundertheMinsk
agreements,andsheshouldbefreedatonce.Recently,Nadiyahasbegunanewhungerstriketoprotestherdetention,andher
healthhasbeguntodeteriorateafterfivedayswithnofoodorliquids.

Today,aswemarkInternationalWomensDayandhonorallthebravewomenwhostruggleagainstinjusticeinthisworld,we
alsostandwithNadiyaandwiththeUkrainianpeople.AndwecallonRussiatomaketherightchoicetodropallchargesand
releaseheratonce.NadiyadeservestogohometoherfamilyandfriendsandjoinherfellowRadamemberstobeginshapinga
newUkraine.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Tue,Mar8,2016at10:55AM
Subject:RussianTVmilitarisesInternationalWomen'sDay-BBCNews
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-35746048

RussianTVmilitarisesInternationalWomen'sDay
 REN
TVTheRussianTulipself-propelledgunisusedtopromoteInternationalWomen'sDay

ARussianTVstationhascomeupwithanovel-andsomewouldsayinappropriate-wayofmarking
InternationalWomen'sDayon8March.

AsRENTVitselfputit,"insteadoftheexpectedspringbouquets,thechannelwillshowmilitaryequipmentthatis
namedafterflowers".Accordingly,overthepastfewdays,thechannel,whichisownedbybusinessmenclosetothe
Kremlin,haspunctuateditsprogrammeswith10-secondanimatedclipsshowingtheTulipself-propelledgun,the
AcaciaHowitzerandtheHyacinthfieldgun.

"Russianspring,Russianflowers-dearwomen,wewishyouahappyholidayon8MarchfromRENTV,"themale
voice-oversaystotheaccompanimentofvaguelymartialbrassfanfaresanddrumrolls.Theseeminglyinnocent
referencetothe"Russianspring"hasasecond,morepoliticalmeaning-asthetermappliedbynationaliststoRussia's
militaryinterventioninUkraine.

Anotherlonger8Marchclipshowsayoungblonde,blue-eyedwomaninclose-upansweringquestionsabouther
lifestyle.Shedoesn'tlikehigh-heels,herfavouritedogisanAlsatian,andherfavourflowerisCheremukha,atypeof
cherryblossom.Thecamerathencutsawaytorevealthattheyoungwomanisdressedintheuniformofariot
policeofficer.ItalsoshowsthatCheremukhais,asmostRussiansknow,anothernameforteargas.

Manysocialmediausershavereactedwithhumourtotheclips."RussianTVknowswhatwomenwant,"onewrote
onthepopularplatformVKontakte.

ButpopularUkrainianbloggerIgorBigdandeploredthemasanothersignoftheongoing"militarisation"of
Russiansociety.Thishasincludedthedominationofthenewsbymilitaryconflict,afashionforhiringoutmilitary
vehiclesforweddings,arangeofpropagandaT-shirtsshowingnuclearmissilesandthereintroductionofReadyfor
LabourandDefenceoftheUSSR,orGTO-acivildefenceprogrammewhichhadbeenphasedoutaftertheendof
theSovietUnion.

"Whatwillbenext,"Bigdanwondered,"TheNewYear'streedecoratedwithgrenadesandammunitionbelts?"


RENTVRiotgear,abigdogandacanisterofteargasarepropsforInternationalWomen'sDayonRussianTV

Use#NewsfromElsewheretostayup-to-datewithourreportsvia
Twitter.

-----OriginalMessage-----

From:CivicSectorofEuroMaidan

To:vikohut@msn.com

Sent:Tuesday,March08,20161:50AM

Subject:UkraineinformationnewsletterNo.118
 DearfriendsofUkraine,

Nobreakthroughduring'NormandyFour'meeting.Complete
breakdowncouldleadtoaspiralofviolenceineastern
Ukraine.

WhentheshakyceasefirebrokeredbyRussiaandtheUnited
StateskickedinthisweekinSyria,almostimmediately,
Moscowbeganre-escalatingtheconflictineasternUkraine.
Press-centerofCivicSectorofEuroMaidan
KaterynaMaksym
tel.+38(066)6906927 Jareskoemergesastopcandidateforprimeminister.
e-mail:katerynamaksym69@gmail.com
'WeneedtohaveUkraineontheagenda'.Theresults
ofUkraineWeekinBrussels.
www.facebook.com/hrom.sektor.euromaidan

Howareferendumonceintroducedastheultimateformof
Previousissuesofournewsletterare democracyhasbeenhijackedinHolland,andisservingthose
availableatNationalUniversityofKyiv- inRussiawhosebasicrulesofthegamearesimplethatthe
MohylaAcademyelectronic EUshouldcrumble.
repositoryhttp://goo.gl/twRKkW
'IWillReturnToUkraine,DeadOrAlive'
Youcansubscribetothenewsletter Savchenko.Savchenkoslaststatementtocourt
online.Savchenkoannounceshungerstrikewithoutwater.
athttp://eepurl.com/bByY49


Ifyouwishtoreceivethisnewsletter,orifyou
wouldliketounsubscribe,pleaseemail 20Ukraine-basedcompaniesmakeitonlistofEuropes
KaterynaMaksym fastest-growingprivatefirms.
atkaterynamaksym69@gmail.com
Anancient3000y.o.ScythianstatuefoundinUkraine.
TheTarasShevchenkoNationalPrizeswereawardedtopainter
MykhailoGuida,publicistLevkoLukyanenko,balletmaster
RaduPoklitaru,directorOlegSentsovandartistAngelina
Shvachka.

PleasereadmoreaboutthenewdevelopmentsinUkrainein
theinformationnewsletterNo.118online.
Weapologizefortechnicalproblemswithaccesslastweek.

Copyright*|2015|**|CivicSectorofEuroMaidan|*,Allrightsreserved.

Youcansubscribetothenewsletterathttp://eepurl.com/bByY49
 Ourmailingaddressis:
katerynamaksym69@gmail.com

 From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 01/13/201609:32:52AM
To: pbreddaway@gmail.commartin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[WDNEWSFROMTHEVLAD-LANDS]PutinCritic-VladimirPribylovsky'FoundDead'InMoscowApartment3RUmenwithlinksto
Subject:
ISISdetainedinIstanbulbombingcaseCAEx-IntelChiefHintsatRU-ISISLinksWillRURunoutofmoneywith$30dollaroi...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Wednesday,January13,20169:06AM
Subject:Fwd:[WDNEWSFROMTHEVLAD-LANDS]PutinCritic-VladimirPribylovsky'FoundDead'InMoscowApartment3RUmen
withlinkstoISISdetainedinIstanbulbombingcaseCAEx-IntelChiefHintsatRU-ISISLinksWillRURunoutofmoneywith$30dollar
oi...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Wed,Jan13,2016at12:05PM
Subject:[WDNEWSFROMTHEVLAD-LANDS]PutinCritic-VladimirPribylovsky'FoundDead'InMoscowApartment3
RUmenwithlinkstoISISdetainedinIstanbulbombingcaseCAEx-IntelChiefHintsatRU-ISISLinksWillRURunoutof
moneywith$30dollaroilInRU,BudgetCutsFavorFinancialElite
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Wed,Jan13,2016at10:07AM
Subject:PutinCritic-VladimirPribylovsky'FoundDead'InMoscowApartment
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko
<wderzko@pathcom.com>

Wednesday,January13,2016

Russia

PutinCritic'FoundDead'InMoscowApartment

PoliticalanalystVladimirPribylovskywasawell-knowncriticofRussianPresidentVladimirPutin.(filephoto)

ByRFE/RL'sRussianService

January13,2016

AnotedRussianpoliticalanalystandjournalist,VladimirPribylovsky,hasreportedlybeenfounddeadattheageof
59.

Pribylovsky'scolleague,historianYuryFelshtinsky,wroteontheFacebookandLiveJournalsocialnetworkson
January13thathewasfounddeadinhisMoscowapartment,addingthathehad"nofurtherinformationatthis
point."

RussianofficialshavenotcommentedonPribylovsky'sreporteddeath.

In2007,policesearchedPribylovsky'sapartmentandconfiscatedhiscomputersandelectronicmaterialsrelated
tohisbook"TheCorporation:RussiaandKGBintheAgeofPresidentPutin,"whichwasco-authoredwith
FelshtinskyandprintedinNewYorkin2009.

ThebookwasreissuedIn2012underthetitle"TheCorporation:RussiaandKGBatCenturies'Crossing."

Pribylovskysignedtheoppositionpetition"PutinMustGo"in2010.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Wed,Jan13,2016at9:56AM
Subject:ThreeRussianmenwithlinkstoISISdetainedoverbombwhichkilledtenandinjured15inIstanbulon
Tuesday
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko
<wderzko@pathcom.com>,bohdan.rn@gmail.com,azglobal<azgre@azgre.ca>

ThreeRussianmenwithlinkstoISISdetainedoverbombwhichkilledtenandinjured15inIstanbulonTuesday

Meanwhile,TurkishauthoritieshavedetainedthreeRussianmenwithlinkstoISISinconnectionwiththemassiveexplosioninthe
Sultanahmetneighbourhood,anareahometosomeofIstanbul'smostpopulartouristattractions.

[]

Russia'sConsulateGeneralintheMediterraneancityofAntalyahastodayconfirmedthatthreeRussianshadbeendetainedover
suspectedconnectiontoISIS.

Readmore:http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3397116/Turkey-arrests-three-Russians-links-ISIS-suicide-bomb-killed-ten-
tourists-Istanbul.html#ixzz3x8WKTDmI

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Wed,Jan13,2016at1:15AM
Subject:WOW--RayBoisvert,formerdirectorofCSIShintsatlinkbetweenISISandRussia!!!!
To:bohdan.rn@gmail.com,azglobal<azgre@azgre.ca>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterZaryckyj
<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>,MykolaHryckowian<mykcusur@gmail.com>

033.22oftheCBCNationalNewscliptonighthttp://www.cbc.ca/news/thenationaltalkingaboutTurningPointsin2016

(Wow,thisisthefirsttimeIheardaCanadiangovernmentofficialorformergovernmentofficialhintthatthereisalink/connection
betweenISISandRussia,whichweallknowWalterDerzko)

RayBoisvert,formerdirectorofCSIS(Canadassecurityagency)talkingaboutISISonCBCNews-theNationaltonight

----------Forwardedmessage----------

From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Wed,Jan13,2016at10:29AM
Subject:WillRussiarunoutofmoneywith$30oil?
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko
<wderzko@pathcom.com>

WillRussiarunoutofmoneywith$30oil?

BenArisinMoscowJanuary11,2016

http://www.intellinews.com/will-russia-run-out-of-money-with-30-oil-88243/

OilpricescrashedagaininthefirstweekofJanuary,fallingtoan11-yearlowofabout$32perbarrel.TheRussianfederalbudget
wasalreadygoingtostruggleundertheofficial$50oilpriceassumption,andfinishthisyearwithaforecast3%deficit.Butifoil
pricesstaythislow,won'tRussia'sbudgetballoonandburnupalltheKremlin'slaudedreservefundsintheprocess?

TheWorldBankreiteratedits0.7%contractionofGDPin2016onJanuary9aseconomicblackcloudsrapidlygatheredinthe
firstweekoftheNewYear.ThatstandsagainsttheRussianMinistryofFinance'sofficialforecastof0.7%growth,ifaverageoil
pricescomeinat$50attheendofthisyear.

"Theglobaleconomywillneedtoadapttoanewperiodofmoremodestgrowthinlargeemergingmarkets,characterizedbylower
commoditypricesanddiminishedflowsoftradeandcapital,"WorldBankSeniorVicePresidentandChiefEconomistKaushik
Basusaidinareporttitled"GlobalEconomicProspectsin2016:SpilloversamidWeakGrowth."

Withtherenewedtumbleinoilpricesthatassumptionofoilat$50islookingshakierthanever.Ifoilfallstoanaverageof$40then
eventheMinistryofFinancedoesn'texpectanyeconomicgrowththisyear,butacontractionof1.5%instead.Andifoilfallstoan
averageof$30thecontractionwouldbe2.4%,accordingtoanalystsatBankofAmericaMerrillLynch,whichisinthemiddleof
therangeformostinvestmentbanks'predictions.

Allsaidanddone,a1-3%economiccontractionwouldbeunpleasantbutmanageableasRussianshavebuiltupalargeincome
bufferovertheyearsaswageswererunningwellaheadofinflationformostofthelastdecadeandcorporateshaveamassedtheir
ownwarchestsofcash.Themoredifficultproblemwillbefinancingthefederalbudgetdeficit.

The2016budgetassumesadeficitof3%ofGDP,orRUB1.7trillion($28.32bn),alevelthatPresidentVladimirPutinhas
declareda"redline".However,thistargetwillalmostcertainlybemissedevenifoildoesaverage$50,asthestatewillhavetobail
outitsdefactodevelopmentbankVEB,whichneedsaRUB1.2trillion($20bn)injectionoffreshcapitaltodealwithbadloans
incurredfromcaseslikeunderwritinginvestmentsfortheSochiOlympics.

AndevencountingVEB'sbail-out(thegovernmentisstilltryingtofindawaytogiveitmoneythatwon'tcomeoutofthepublic
purse)theMinistryofFinancehasalreadywarnedthatthecurrentbudgetassumptionwith$50oilmaybetoooptimistic:
accordingFinanceMinisterAntonSiluanov'scalculations,revenuescouldbeRUB750bnlessthantheforecastinthecurrent
officialbudget,whichwouldleadtoadeficitof4.1%ofGDP.

Anditallgetsworseastheaverageoilpricein2016sinks:withoilat$40thedeficitbecomes5.2%(againwithoutcountinginthe
VEBcost),orarevenueshortfallofRUB4.1trillion.

Wheresthecash?

SoitlooksverylikelythatthegovernmentwillhavetofindbetweenRUB1.7trillionandRUB4.1trilliontofundthedeficit(and
addRUB1.2trillionforVEBandifpossiblyanotherRUB2.5trillionifthestategivesthesamesupporttothebankingsectorif
gavein2015).

Whereisthismoneygoingtocomefrom?Thestateisreluctanttoborrowathomeduetohighinterestrates(thebudgethas
RUB300bnofborrowingagainsttheRUB1trillionin"normal"years)andcan'tborrowinternationallythankstotheWest's
financialsanctions(thebudgetassumes$1.5bnofinternationalborrowing,presumablyfromtheChinese).

Theonlyresourceleftarethetworeservefunds:theReserveFundthatisspecificallymeantforpluggingbudgetdeficitsinhard
timesandtheNationalWelfareFundthatisearmarkedforpensionpaymentsinthefuture.

Attheendof2015,thefundsheldRUB3.4trillionandRUB4.6trillionrespectively.Thestatehasalreadysaiditwillspendat
leastRUB2.5trillionfromtheReserveFundtosupplementthe2016budgetspending,whichleavesareserveof
RUB1.1trillion.ButSiluanovalreadyadmittedinDecemberthatheexpectstheReserveFundtobefullyexhausted
bytheendof2016.


Ifoilends2016at$50thenthestatewillscrapethroughtheyearwithRUB1trillioninreserve,butifoilfallsto$40thentherewill
stillbeatleastaRUB2trillionshortfall(notcountingtheextracosts).ThetemptationtotaptheNationalWelfareFundwillalmost
certainlybecomeoverwhelmingandatleasthalfofthatfund,ifnotallofit,couldbeburntuptoo.ThebottomlineisRussiacanget
through2016evenwithoilat$40withtheresourcesithasinhandbutitwouldgointo2017flyingonfumes.

AusterityRussianstyle

Thefinancialheadachesthegovernmentisfacingaremademuchworsebythepoliticalcalendar.Thereareparliamentaryelections
slatedforthisautumnandcrucialpresidentialelectionsin2018wherePutincanstandforthelasttime(undertherulesofthe
currentconstitution).Ifanythingthegovernmentwillwanttoincreasespending,notcutit.

Butthatwillbehard.Russia'sregionsarealreadyunderpressuretoupspendingaspartofthe2012'Maydecrees'.Butunlikethe
centretheydon'thavebucketsofpetrodollarrevenuesfloodingintotheircoffersandarealreadyunderseverefinancialpressure,
whichcouldcometoaheadin2018accordingtointernationalratingsagencyStandard&Poor's(S&P).

Socialspendingalreadyaccountsforaquarter(27.6%)ofexpenditure,whichsofarhaslargelyremaineduntouchedasmuchof
thisgoestothebluecollarworkersthatarePutin'scoreconstituents.Thegovernmentcouldmakeentitlementsmoredifficulttoget,
butthatwouldrepresentabigpoliticalriskandtestexactlyhowfragilePutin'ssky-highpopularityreallyis,assomehave
suggested.Pensionersweretherecipientsofsignificantbudgetlargessinthe2012elections,butthistimeroundtheyhavealready
beensacrificedafterindexrateforpensionhikeswerecutto4%,waybelowinflation.

Cuttingmilitaryspendingisthemostobviousandleastpainfulcutthestatewillmakeandwillalmostcertainlynothappen.Indeed,
duringthebudgetdebatestheMinistryofFinancepushedhardtocurtainmilitaryspendingandwaspromptlyslappeddown.

Putinhasmadeitcrystalclearthatthemodernisationofthearmedforcesissacrosanctandiswillingtolaytheeconomyonthe
sacrificialaltertohisgeopoliticalgoalswhateverthosemaybe.Athirdofbudgetexpenditure(32%)willgotothemilitarywith
veryfewcuts(and$1.2bnfortheSyriacampaign).Increasinglythegovernmentseemstobegraspingatstrawstofillthegap.In
December,SiluanovannouncedanambitiousRUB1trillionprivatisationprogrammefor2016withsomebigsexynamesonthe
mootedlist,includingstakesinoilmajorRosneft,shippinggiantSovkomflotandoilminorRosen.

DeputyFinanceMinisterAlexeiMoisseevtoldinvestorsinLondonthatSovkomflotwillbesold"comewhatmay".Butthe
privatisationplanisexactlythesameonethatwasfloatedinthesummerof2008attheendoftheboomyears,whichcameto
nothingthenbeforetheglobalcrisisbroke.Eveniftheprivatisationtargetwashit,thatcouldstillleavethestateRUB1trillionshort
toclosethebudgetdeficit.

Themostlikelyscenariofor2016isthattheKremlinrunsdownitsreservesandletsmorerubledevaluationtaketherestofthe
strain.Despiteallitsproblems,Russiaisstillrunningatradeandcurrentaccountsurpluswiththelatterbringinginaprofitofabout
$60bninhardcurrencyin2015.Asthegovernmenthassignificantrevenuesindollarsbutexpendituresinunadjustedrubles,letting
thevalueoftherubleslideabsorbsmuchoftheoilpriceshock.Analystsestimatetherublewillend2016ataboutRUB80-85to
thedollarfromthecurrentRUB70,butifoilpricescontinuetofallthenRUB100isnotimpossible.


----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Wed,Jan13,2016at10:17AM
Subject:InRussia,BudgetCutsFavortheFinancialElite
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko
<wderzko@pathcom.com>

InRussia,BudgetCutsFavortheFinancialElite

GeopoliticalDiary

JANUARY13,2016|02:36GMT

(Stratfor)

AllRussiangovernmentministrieshavebeenorderedtoslashtheirbudgetsfor
2016by10percent,agovernmentsourcetoldRussiannewspaperVedomosti.If
anyministryoragencyfailstosubmititsbudgetreductionsbyFriday,theFinance
Ministrywillreportedlymakethecutsitself.Thisforcefuldirectiveisnotonlya
responsetoRussia'sdireeconomicsituationbuttheKremlin'sdirect
acknowledgementthatitcannotdelayfinancialreformsforpoliticalreasonsany
longer.ItisalsoanindicatorthatRussia'sfinancialeliteisgainingpowerwithinthe
Kremlin.

DespitetheFinanceMinistry'sattemptstocraftabudgetbasedonloweroilprices
duringintenseKremlindebates,theRussiangovernment'sbudgetwaspredicatedon
theaveragepriceof(Uralscrude)oilremainingataround$50perbarrelin
2016.However,Uralscrudepriceshaveaveragedinthe$30rangeforthepasttwo
months.Inthepast48hours,thepricedippedto$29perbarrel,avastdeparture
fromthe$97perbarrelaveragein2014andthe$51perbarrelaveragein2015.
SustainedlowoilpriceshavegiventheFinanceMinistrytheimpetustoforcepainful
butnecessarycutstothebudget.EvenRussianPresidentVladimirPutinrecently
calledthecurrentbudgetunrealistic.

TheRussiangovernmentonlyrecentlyforcedthroughasimilar10percentbudget
cut.However,thatdirectivecamestraightfromPutin,andtheRussian
leaderrefusedtotouchdefensespendingatall.Thisyear'sbudgetiseventighter
thanlastyear's,andtheimpendingcutswillreportedlyaffecteventhesacrosanct
defensesector.Theoneareathatwillremainuntouched,however,ispensions.

ThesafeguardingofpensionsexposestheKremlin'sgrowingconcernaboutsocial
unrestinRussia.Whenthegovernmentcutpensionsandbenefitsin2005,
protestersacrossRussiatooktothestreets.Thedemonstrations,whichdrew
100,000participantsinsomecities,wereRussia'slargestprotestsinadecade.
Demonstratorsblockedroadsinmajorcities,hijackedbusesandstormed
governmentbuildings.ThisvolatilereactionoccurredwhentheRussianeconomy
wasrelativelystableandgrowing.Now,Russiaisinarecession,thecurrencyhas
weakened,andinflationisatitssecond-highestlevelsincePutincametopower.
Cuttingpensionsinthisenvironmentcouldsparkafirestormofprotests.

Insteadoftargetingsocialspending,theKremlinismakingthetoughdecisiontocut
itsdefenseexpenditure.RussiahasactivemilitarycampaignsinUkraineandSyria
andistryingtocounteraNATObuilduponitsdoorstep.Evenintheoriginal,austere
2016budget,defensespendingwasnotcut,thoughitincreasedbyonly0.8percent.
Ifthegovernmentdecreasesdefensespendingby10percent,Russiacould
maintainitscurrentmilitaryactivities,butitwouldhavetomakecutsinotherareas,
suchastherearmamentprogram.

AreductionindefensespendingwouldalsobeararevictoryfortheFinance
Ministry,whichhaslongbattledtheentrencheddefenseandsecuritycomplexatthe
heartoftheKremlin.CurrentFinanceMinisterAntonSiluanovhasbeenavocal
criticofthecountry'sdefensespendingandambitiousrearmamentprogram.Former
FinanceMinisterAlexeiKudrinlefthispositionoverthematter.

Sincebecomingfinanceministerin2011,Siluanovhasrepeatedlyfailedtopush
throughspendingandeconomicreforms,lackingthepoliticalweighttodoso.Not
onlyhavingtodealwiththepowerfulsecurityanddefensecircles,Siluanovalso
foundhimselfatoddswithPutinandPrimeMinisterDmitriMedvedev.Butthe
Kremlin'sfinancialcliquehasgainedfavorinrecentmonthsasRussia'sworsening
economicsituationamplifiesconcernsaboutsocialunrest.

Furthermore,rumorsarebuzzingthatKudrinwillreturntothegovernment.Many
RussiansandWesternersconsiderKudrinoneofthemorelevelheadedfinancial
mindsinthecountry.HeservedasfinanceministeratatimewhenRussia'sleaders
considerednationalsecurityanddefensemoreimportantthaneconomicand
financialreforms.Sinceleavingthegovernment,Kudrinhasbeenworkingwith
nongovernmentalorganizationsthatpromotecivilsocietyandhumanrights.In
additiontobuildingaloyalfollowing,Kudrinalsogainedattentionbycallingforearly
presidentialelections.Inanotherpopularmove,hehasbeenattheforefrontof
developingideastogettheWesttoliftsanctionsandtocoaxforeigninvestment
backintothecountry.

OnMonday,VedomosticitedunnamedKremlinsourcesassayinganewposition
overseeingeconomicpolicywithintheKremlinwouldbecreatedforKudrin.Similar
rumorshavesurfacedregularlysinceJune2015,suggestingthatKudrincould
eventuallybecomeprimeministeroreventrytorunforpresident.Themanhimself
deniedsuchambitions,sayinghepreferredtoreturntothegovernmentinamore
tacticalrole.ButKudrin'sreturntotheKremlinwouldindicatethatPutinagreeswith
theuncomfortableeconomicreformsthattheformerandcurrentfinanceministers
havecalledfor.

WithPutin'sblessing,KudrinandSiluanovcouldhavethecombinedpoliticalweight
tostartpushingforpolicychanges.Besidescuttingthebudgetparticularly
defensespendingtheduowantstodecreasetheRussiangovernment's
involvementinthebigstatefirms:inshort,decentralizetheeconomytoadegree.
Thebiggesttestforthismajorshiftwouldbetheproposedprivatizationof19
percentofRosneft,theenergyfirmthatbelongstosecurityheavyweightIgor
Sechin.SechinwieldsthepoliticalclouttofendoffKudrinandSiluanov'sagendafor
Rosneft,butasthefinancialelitegarnermoreattentionandinfluence,thescales
couldtipintheFinanceMinistry'sfavorthisyear.

 From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 02/06/201611:15:32AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:A/BT'MUSTREAD':Ukraine&TUNISIA(asstrategiclynchpins).....[WDOHBOY!!!PARADE]RussiaConsidersArmsControlIn
Subject:
EuropeTreatyOutdatedNP/MC:Russia's(Lavrov's)BaldfacedLiesPopetoMeetwithROC'sKirillinCuba.......[YB]G.Weigel&t
Attachments: SheptytskyInstituteStatementreMeetingofPopeFrancisandPatriarchKirillinCubaonFeb12.pdf

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Friday,February05,20167:35PM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:A/BT'MUSTREAD':Ukraine&TUNISIA(asstrategiclynchpins).....[WDOHBOY!!!PARADE]RussiaConsidersArmsControlIn
EuropeTreatyOutdatedNP/MC:Russia's(Lavrov's)BaldfacedLiesPopetoMeetwithROC'sKirillinCuba.......[YB]G.Weigel&th...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:Taylor,William<wtaylor@usip.org>
Date:Fri,Feb5,2016at5:23PM
Subject:UkraineandTunisia
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://thehill.com/blogs/congressblog/foreignpolicy/268239tunisiaandukrainelinchpinsofusinterests

ebruary05,2016,08:00am

TunisiaandUkraine:LinchpinsofU.S.
interests
ByKristinM.LordandWilliamB.Taylor

3
24
TheObamaadministrationsannouncementthisweekthatitplanstoquadruplemilitaryresourcesdevotedtodeterring
RussiainEuropehighlightshowseriouslyU.S.andNATOleadersviewthethreatposedbyRussia.Ukraineis
strugglingtosaveitsyoungdemocracyandstaveoffpublicdisaffectionwiththenewgovernmentsvaliantbuthalting
reforms,evenasRussiacontinuesitscampaignofmilitaryandeconomicgoading.

SouthacrosstheBlackandMediterraneanSeas,TunisiaisexperiencingsomeofitsworstsocialunrestsincetheArab
Springrevolutionsof2011,illustratingthevulnerabilityoftheonlycountrytopushthroughthetransitionwithoutcivilwaror
areturntodictatorship.U.S.leadersareconcernedaboutthethreatposedbyISISextremiststhereandacrossthe
broaderregion.AsinEurope,theyarereportedlypreparingnewmilitaryoptionstoaddressthethreatinbothSyriaand
Libya.

FormanyAmericans,andlikelysomeU.S.policymakers,UkraineandTunisiawithpopulationsofjust45
ADVERTISEMENT millionand10millionrespectively--mayjustlookliketwomoreproblemsinashockinglylonglistof
foreignpolicychallengesaroundtheglobe.Suchanassessmentwouldbeacrucialandpossibly
irreversibleerror,withconsequencesthatcouldcascadeacrosswholeregionsandreverberatefor
decades.UkraineandTunisiaoffercrucialopportunitiesforAmericaanditsalliestoadvancetheirstrategicinterestsand
potentiallytransformtodaysdangeroussecurityenvironmentatatimewhenU.S.national-securitypolicyresemblesan
endlessanddangerousgameofgeopoliticalwhack-a-mole.
Bothcountriesarestrategiclinchpins.BothcountriesmeritU.S.backingthatincludes--butalsoextendsfarbeyond--
militarysupport.

Ukraineboastsafreelyandfairlyelectedgovernmentinaregionbesetbydemocraticreversal.Apeople-powered
revolution,whichtragicallyledtobloodshedonKyivscentralsquare,usheredinanewreformgovernmentthatis
strugglingtoadvancefragiledemocraticreforms,jump-startateeteringeconomy,andrepelRussianandRussian-
backedforcesthathaveinvadedandoccupypartsofthecountry.

TunisiaistheMiddleEastsonlyArabdemocracy.Italsohasafreelyandfairlyelectedgovernmentthatisstruggling
againstradicalextremistswhoareintentonderailingit.Tunisiaisalsohometofourcivilsocietyorganizationsthatwon
the2015NobelPeacePrizefortheirsuccessinpromotingapeacefulpoliticaltransition.

ThesuccessofthesetwocountrieswoulddofarmoretothwartRussianeffortstodestabilizelargeareasofEurasiaor
counterthreatsposedbyIslamistextremistorganizationslikeISISthananyanti-propagandainitiativeoranybombing
campaigninSyria.AndthecostislikelytodemonstrateafarbetterreturnoninvestmentforU.S.taxpayersthanbillions
ofdollarsspentonmoretacticalresponses.ItwouldhelpAmericareasserttheimportanceofuniversalvalueswehold
dear,notjustforourselvesbutforallthosewillingtostriveforthem.

DuringtheColdWar,Americanstrategistsunderstoodthatshoringupalliesandensuringthevitalityoffree-market
democracieswasatleastasimportantasdefendingagainstColdWarmilitaryprovocations.Americanpresidentsfrom
TrumantoReaganworkedtouniteEuropeanddrawnewlydecolonizedstatesinEurope,Asia,AfricaandLatinAmerica
towarddemocraticgovernanceandfree-marketeconomiesthroughthepowerofattraction.Thesuccessofcountrieslike
thesecontributedatleastasmuchtotheIronCurtainscollapseasU.S.militarymightandneitherwouldhavebeen
successfulwithouttheother.

Thisapproachisneedednow,atatimewhensuccessinUkraineandTunisiaisstillpossiblebuthardlyassured.The
strategicandmoralconsequencesoftheirfailureswouldbeenormous.

AfailedUkrainewouldnotonlydishonorthesacrificesofthosewhodiedontheMaidanandtheeffortsofreformerswho
arefightingcorruption.ItwouldbeaclearsigntocountriesacrossEasternEurope,theCaucususandCentralAsiathat
Russianinterventioncannotbedeterredandthateffortstoadvancedemocracyandparticipateintheinternational
economyareunlikelytopayoff.

AfailedTunisiawouldnotonlybeatragedyforTunisianswholedtheArabSpringandunitedtotransformtheirsociety
peacefully.ItwouldbeanunparalleledvictoryforISISandotherextremistmovementsalreadyrecruitingheavilyin
Tunisia--aswellasablowtoallthosewithintheregionwhowishtoestablishjust,representativegovernments.

BothcountriesneedU.S.andEuropeanassistanceurgentlytoconsolidatetheirrespectivetransitionsandmeet
legitimatecitizendemands.Thisshouldinclude:

Financialassistancetoshoreupstrugglingeconomies

Securityassistancetohelplegitimatearmedforcesrepelunlawfulanddestabilizingattackswithintheirborders

Governanceassistance,particularlytofightcorruptionandengagepopulationsrapidlysouringonreformacross
thesediversecountriesand

Supportforvocationaleducation,entrepreneurship,scholarshipsandeducationalexchangestoproductively
engagelargeyouthpopulations.

Tobesure,bothgovernmentshaveweaknesses,includingcorruption,internalpoliticalsquabbles,andlackof
accountability.TheabruptdepartureofyetanotherUkrainianreformministeriscauseforparticularconcern.Butboth
governmentsarecommittedtoreformandthevaluesofparticipatorygovernance,civicrightsandruleoflawinregions
whereallareundersiege.Theirnewlyempoweredcitizensaredemandingchangeandreform-ledgrowth.

AU.S.foreignpolicythatprioritizesUkraineandTunisiaisastrategicvisionwiththepotentialtotransform,notjust
respondto,athreateningglobalsecurityenvironment.ItisavisionbothDemocratsandRepublicanshavereasonto
support.

LordispresidentandCEOofIREX,aglobaleducationanddevelopmentorganizationthatworksinbothTunisiaand
Ukraine.TayloristheexecutivevicepresidentoftheU.S.InstituteofPeace,aformerU.S.ambassadortoUkraine,and
formerspecialcoordinatorforMiddleEastTransitions

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Fri,Feb5,2016at11:53AM
Subject:RussiaConsidersPrinciplesOfArmsControlInEuropeTreatyOutdated.......treatyjustascrapofpaperlike
theBudapestMemorandum[ED:OHBOY!!]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,MykolaHryckowian
<mykcusur@gmail.com>,azglobal<azgre@azgre.ca>,AndyHolowaty<andycando@mac.com>,walter.derzko@utoronto.ca

RussiaConsidersPrinciplesOfArmsControlIn
EuropeTreatyOutdated
February05,2016

http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-says-arms-treaty-outdated/27534336.html\

R ussiasaysitisnotpracticaltocommititselftostrongercontroloverconventionalweaponsinEuropewhileNATO
increasesitsactivitiesintheregion.

RussianDeputyDefenseMinisterAnatolyAntonovtoldreportersinMoscowonFebruary5that,iftalkstoupdatethe2011
ViennatreatyontheconventionalarmscontrolinEuroperesume,theprinciplesofthiscontrolmechanismshouldbe
differentfromthoseusedintheColdWar-era.

"Thelistofstrategicsystemsisbroadeningasmodernconventionalweaponsarecomparablewithnuclearweaponsand
thereforejustcountingcannonsandtanksisnotenough,"Antonovsaid.

AccordingtotheViennatreaty,theRussianDefenseMinistryandNATOexchangeinspectorstoregulatemilitaryfacilities
andshareinformationonmilitaryactivitiesinEurope.

Moscow-NATOrelationsareattheirlowestsincetheendofColdWarafterRussia'sannexationofCrimeafromUkraine
in2014andamidtheWest'saccusationsthattheKremlinissupportingpro-RussiaseparatistsineasternUkraine.

BasedonreportingbyTASS,ReutersandInterfax

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Fri,Feb5,2016at1:59PM
Subject:MichaelColborne:Russia'sbald-facedlies>NationalPost>Toronto[OHBOY!!OHBOY!!]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,walter.derzko@utoronto.ca,
MykolaHryckowian<mykcusur@gmail.com>,bohdan.rn@gmail.com,azglobal<azgre@azgre.ca>,AndyHolowaty
<andycando@mac.com>

MichaelColborne:Russiasbald-facedlies
MichaelColborne,NationalPost|February4,2016|LastUpdated:Feb46:28AMET
http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/michael-colborne-russias-bald-faced-lies
REUTERS/DenisSinyakovRussia'sForeignMinisterSergeiLavrov.

Wecancomplainallwewantaboutlyingpoliticiansinourowncountry,butlastweekRussian
ForeignMinisterSergeiLavrovsteppedupandshowedushowitsreallydone:withoutbatting
aneye,hetoldapressconferencethatRussiahadneverviolatedthe1994Budapest
Memorandum,theagreementthatguaranteedUkrainesterritorialintegrity(including
Crimea)inexchangeforUkrainegivingupitsnuclearweapons.

IfyouretalkingabouttheBudapestMemorandum,wehavenotviolatedit,hetoldajournalist.Itcontains
onlyoneobligationnottousenuclearweaponsagainstUkraine.

Theresafewbigproblemswiththatstatement,leastofwhichisthefactthatthereareactuallysixobligations
intheBudapestMemorandum,andthefirstofthemistorespecttheindependenceandsovereigntyandthe
existingbordersofUkraine.

EvenworsewastheRussianembassyintheU.K.sham-handedattempttobroadcastLavrovsboldnew
interpretationonTwitter.ItprovidedalinktothetextoftheBudapestMemorandumitselfwithallsix
obligations,includingtheonesRussiahasclearlyviolatedrightthereforeveryonetosee.

KeepinmindthatLavrovwasntjustRussiasambassadortotheUNbackin1994heactuallysignedthe
originalBudapestMemorandum.Hehasntbeenforeignministerfor12yearsbecausehesanidiot.Hewas
lying,heknewhewaslyingandhekneweveryoneknewhewaslyingandhedidntcare.

InthewordsofAmericandiplomatStevenPifer,whohelpednegotiatetheBudapestMemorandum,whatdoes
itsayaboutthemendacityofRussiandiplomacyanditscontemptforinternationalopinionwhentheforeign
ministersayssomethingthatcanbeprovenwrongwithlessthan30secondsofGooglefact-checking?

Theanswer:itsaysthat,whenitcomestotheKremlin,weredealingwithawayoflyingwerenotusedto
seeing.Itsablack-knight-from-Monty-Python-esquestyleoflyingthatmakesdealingwithPutinand
companyonissueslikeUkraineandSyriasuchanightmare.

Yes,ourpoliticianslie,buttheytendtobeabitmorecraftyaboutit.Theyliebyomission:theyllanswerpart
ofaquestiontheyllfudgeanumberorbaseafigureonsomethingthatdoesntmakeanysense.Ourpoliticians
dontoftenstandupandtellussomethingweallknowisatotallie.

Why?Because,believeitornot,ourpoliticiansactuallyhavesomerespectforus.Theyknowwecangoonline
andchecktheveracityofsomethingbeforetheyveevenfinishedtheirspeech.Theyknowwehaveamedia
that,forallitsfaults,willgleefullycallthemoutonit.Whentheylie,theywantusalltobelieveit.

ItdoesntmatterifyouactuallycutPutinsarmoff.Hedoesntcarethatyoucanseeitrightthereonthe
ground

Russianpoliticians,ontheotherhand,arentinterestedinconceptslikerespectorbelievability.Itdoesnt
matterifyouactuallycutPutinsarmoff.Hedoesntcarethatyoucanseeitrightthereontheground.Tis
butascratch,hellsay.Hewontbudge.Andhellinsistitsafleshwounduntil,likehisadmissionofRussian
soldiersinCrimea,hequietlyadmitsthat,yeah,youdidactuallycutitoff.Butthenhellgoonestepfurtherand
denyeverdenyingthatyoucutitoff.

ItsakindofmentalgymnasticsthatdrivesRussia-watcherslikemeupthewall,anditextendstoRussias
echo-chamberstatemedia.RussiasChannelOnefabricatedanow-infamousstoryofayoungboyapparently
beingcrucifiedonabulletinboardinatownsquarebytheUkrainianarmy.TheyalsotoldGermanyslarge
Russian-speakingdiasporathatayoungRussian-GermangirlwaskidnappedandrapedbymigrantsinBerlin,
eventhoughitssincecomeoutthatshewashidingfromherparents.TheTVstationZvezdahasevenmadeup
quotesfromWesternjournaliststolendcredibilitytofakepro-Kremlinstories.

Itshardforustograsptheridiculousnessofallthis,butthatsbecausetheseliesreallyarentdesignedto
convinceanyone.IftheseliesconvincejustafewnuttersorpopulistpoliticiansinEuropetomouthoffandshift
thedebateMoscowsway,thentheyvesucceeded.ButasweintheWestfinallybegintopaymoreattentionto
theKremlinsantics,werestartingtocatchon.

NationalPost

MichaelColborneisaCanadianjournalistandwriter.

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/michael-colborne-russias-bald-faced-lies

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Fri,Feb5,2016at11:48AM
Subject:PopeFrancistoMeetPatriarchKirillinCuba[OHBOY!!OHBOY!!OHBOY!!]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,MykolaHryckowian
<mykcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>,AndyHolowaty<andycando@mac.com>,azglobal
<azgre@azgre.ca>

PopeFrancistoMeetPatriarchKirillin
Cuba
http://www.ncregister.com/blog/edward-pentin/pope-francis-to-meet-patriarch-kirill-in-
cuba/#ixzz3zJ54NEFB

byEdwardPentin02/05/2016

Afteryearsofspeculation,forthefirsttimeinhistorytheSuccessorofPeterandthePatriarchoftheRussian
OrthodoxChurchwillmeetonFebruary12,theVaticanannouncedtoday.

ThemeetingwilltakeplaceinCubawherePatriarchKirillwillbemakinganofficialvisit.PopeFranciswillmakea
briefstopinHavanaonhiswaytoMexico.

TheVaticansaidthehistoricmeeting"willmarkanimportantstageinrelationsbetweenthetwoChurches."

VaticanspokesmanFatherFedericoLombardisaidthemeeting,expectedtolasttwohoursintotal,willconsistof
spontaneousspeechesfromthePopeandthePatriarchwhowillalsoissueajointdeclaration.Headdedthatthe
meeting,whichwasalwaystotakeplaceonneutralground,isthefruitoftwoyearsoftalks.

Herebelowisthefulltextofthepressrelease:

JointPressReleaseoftheHolySeeandofthePatriarchateofMoscow

TheHolySeeandthePatriarchateofMoscowarepleasedtoannouncethat,bythegraceofGod,HisHolinessPope
FrancisandHisHolinessPatriarchKirillofMoscowandAllRussiawillmeetonFebruary12next.Theirmeetingwilltake
placeinCuba,wherethePopewillmakeastoponhiswaytoMexico,andwherethePatriarchwillbeonanofficial
visit.ItwillincludeapersonalconversationatHavanasJosMartInternationalAirport,andwillconcludewiththe
signingofajointdeclaration.

ThismeetingofthePrimatesoftheCatholicChurchandtheRussianOrthodoxChurch,afteralongpreparation,will
bethefirstinhistoryandwillmarkanimportantstageinrelationsbetweenthetwoChurches.TheHolySeeandthe
MoscowPatriarchatehopethatitwillalsobeasignofhopeforallpeopleofgoodwill.TheyinviteallChristiansto
prayferventlyforGodtoblessthismeeting,thatitmaybeargoodfruits.

Readmore:http://www.ncregister.com/blog/edward-pentin/pope-francis-to-meet-patriarch-
kirill-in-cuba/#ixzz3zJSQAILK

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:YuriS.Broda<yuribroda@gmail.com>
Date:Fri,Feb5,2016at5:55PM
Subject:Fwd:PLEASECIRCULATE-StatementoftheSheptytskyInstituteregardingPopeFrancis'smeetingwithPatriarchof
Moscow
To:Mama<lidiawasylyn@gmail.com>,TarasPodilsky<bulba@telusplanet.net>,WalterZaryckyj
<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

Thoughtyoumightfindtheattachedinteresting,regardingthePope'smeetingwithPatriarchKirillinCuba.WAZ,Ithinkthiswould
beveryinterestingtosendouttotheBCCchain,giventhatPatr.KirillisnothingmorethanatooloftheRussianstatesecurity
apparatus!

Relatedtothat,GeorgeWeigelhadafascinatingarticleonthisaswell.http://www.nationalreview.com/node/430858/print

PopeFrancisandtheRussianPatriarchWillMeet,asUkrainian
CatholicsWatchandWait
ByGeorgeWeigelFebruary5,2016

TheannouncementthatPopeFranciswillmeetwithKirill,RussianOrthodoxpatriarchofMoscow,inCuba
onFebruary12is,paradoxically,bothaBigDealandsomethingthatoughttohavebecomeroutinebynow.
Itsabigdeal,inthattheBishopofRomehasnevermetbeforewiththeleaderofRussianOrthodoxy(who,
likehispredecessors,thinksofhimselfasthepatriarchoftheThirdRome).Atthesametime,thisfirst
meetingshouldhavehappenedlongago,suchthatmeetingsbetweenthepopeandtheRussianpatriarch
wouldberoutine:importantbutregularexchangesofviewsonquestionsofmutualinterest,likethosethe
poperegularlyconductswithotherChristianleaders.

WhyhasittakensolongforameetingbetweenthepopeandtheRussianOrthodoxpatriarchtotakeplace?
PopeshavemetregularlywithotherOrthodoxprelates,includingthefirst-among-equalsEcumenical
PatriarchofConstantinople,sincethemid-1960ssowhynotthepatriarchofMoscow?Thatstheessential,
firstquestiontobeexplored,inordertosettheFrancisKirillmeetinginproperperspective.Itsa
complicatedtale,fullofnobleintentions,navetandshrewdness,andlowpolitics.Yetunderstandingwhy
thisencounterhasbeensodifficulttoarrangeiscrucialforunderstandingthestakesinvolvedintheFebruary
12meetingandwhatfollowsfromit:forFrancisandhisrelationshipwithbothworldOrthodoxyandthe
EasternCatholicChurches(ByzantineinritualandgovernancebutinfullcommunionwithRome)forKirill,
hiscloserelationshipwithVladimirPutin,andRussianOrthodoxysquestforpreeminenceintheOrthodox
worldforUkraineforthefutureofthe21st-centurydialoguebetweenCatholicismandOrthodoxy
throughouttheworldandindeedforRussiaitself.

Soalookbackisthenecessaryprerequisitetolookingaheadwithaclear,realisticeye.

ROMEANDMOSCOW
Lenin,whofamouslysaidthattherecanbenothingmoreabominablethanreligion,dideverythinginhis
powertoextinguishtheflameofChristianfaithandtodestroyChristiancultureintheSovietUnionafterthe
BolshevikRevolutionof1917hiswife,Krupskaya,didherpartbyensuringthattheanti-religiousarticlesin
theSovietcriminalcodewereplacedbetweenthearticlesbanningprostitutionandpornography.Underthe
Bolsheviks,RussianOrthodoxybecameamartyrChurch,itsmagnificentstructuresdynamitedanditsclergy
murderedordispatchedtoanonymousdeathintheGulagallinthenameofcreatingHomosovieticus.
Duringthisperiodofconcentrated,CommunistassaultonChristiancommunities,allVaticanattemptsto
provideminimalpastoralcareforthesmallnumberofCatholicsinwhathadbecometheUSSRwere
rebuffedeffortstosendundergroundpriestsintotheUSSRtocareforCatholicsthereusuallyendedinthe
priestsmartyrdom.

ChangesintheofficialSovietattitudetowardRussianOrthodoxybeganintheweeksaftertheGerman
invasionofRussiainJune1941.AstheseeminglyinvincibleWehrmachtgrounditswaytowardMoscow,
Leninsheir,Stalin,firstfrozeinpsychicparalysisbeforereemergingtochristenthebattleagainstHitlerthe
GreatPatrioticWar:astruggleinwhichhewouldappealtoeverypossiblesourceoftraditionalRussian
patriotisminordertostemtheTeutoniconslaught.ThustheRussianOrthodoxChurchwasresurrectedfrom
beneaththeCommunistrubbleanddeployedtorallyRussiansupportforthedeathstrugglewiththeThird
Reich.ButhavingbroughtRussianOrthodoxybackintogovernmentalfavor,Stalin,aformerseminarian,
wasnotabouttolettheChurchofftheCommunistleash.Sotheleadershipofpost-warRussianOrthodoxy
becameanadjuncttotheSovietregime,inareturntoanationalpolitical-culturalpatternthathadbeen
establishedundertheczars.

OneofthefirstthingstheRussianOrthodoxleadershipdidintheimmediatepost-warperiodwastowork
closelywiththeNKVD,theStalinistsecretpolice,tostage-manageafakeChurchcouncil,the1946Lviv
Sobor,inSovietUkraine.There,thelargestoftheEasternCatholicChurches,theUkrainianGreekCatholic
Church[UGCC],abrogated(atgunpoint)the1596UnionofBrest,whichhadrestoredittofull
communionwithRome,andwastherebyreunitedwithRussianOrthodoxy.TheUGCCsbishopsand
thoseofitsclergywhorefusedtoaccepttheirreunionwithMoscowweremurderedorshippedofftothe
Gulag,wherethemajoritydiedtheUGCCsinstitutions(whichhadbeensafe-depositboxesofUkrainian
nationalidentityandaspiration)weredestroyedorturnedovertotheRussianOrthodoxandforthenext
fourandahalfdecades,theUGCCwasthelargestundergroundreligiousbodyintheworld,conducting
religiousservicesinforestsandeducatingitspriestsclandestinely.

PopeJohnXXIII,seekingtoopenaconversationthatwouldpermitRussianOrthodoxobserverstoattend
theSecondVaticanCouncil,receivedSovietpremierNikitaKhrushchevsson-in-lawinprivateaudience,
exchangedgreetingswithKhrushchevhimselfonthepopeseightiethbirthdayin1961,andendedtheanti-
CommunistrhetoricthathadcharacterizedVaticancommentaryonworldaffairsduringthepontificatesof
PiusXIandPiusXII.RussianOrthodoxobserverswereindeedallowedoutoftheUSSRandwerecordially
receivedatVaticanII(196265).ButtheirpresenceinRomealsomarkedthefirstwaveinwhatbecamea
determinedattemptbytheKGBtopenetratetheVaticanacampaignofinfiltrationandblackmailthat
intensified(andbecamemoresuccessful)inthepontificateofJohnXXIIIssuccessor,PaulVI,whothrough
hisOstpolitikreachedouttoCommunist-bloccountriesthroughouttheWarsawPact.

WhileVaticandiplomacywasseekinganewrelationshipwithWarsawPactstates,ontheassumptionthat
thesecountrieswouldremainunderCommunistcontrolwellintothe21stcentury,threedefaultpositions
werebeingsetattheVaticansecumenicalshop,thePontificalCouncilforPromotingChristianUnity:the
keytothequestforChristianunityistherelationshipbetweenCatholicismandOrthodoxythekeytothe
complexOrthodoxworldisRussianOrthodoxytherefore,everyeffortmustbebenttomaintaincordial
relationswiththeMoscowPatriarchate.

Thesethreedefaultsremaininplacetoday.TheyhelpexplainwhyVaticandiplomacyhasbeen,inthemain,
reticenttothepointofquiescenceaboutthereturntobrutalauthoritarianisminPutinsRussiaabout
RussiasillegalinvasionandannexationofCrimeaandaboutRussiasroleinthechronic,low-gradewarfare
intheDonbasregionofsouthernandeasternUkraine.ThesedefaultsalsohelpexplainwhytheVaticanhas
notreachedouttothelargestandliveliestofthefourcontendingOrthodoxjurisdictionsinUkraine,the
UkrainianOrthodoxChurchKyivanPatriarchate,fortheVaticaninsistsonmaintainingitslinkstothe
UkrainianjurisdictionlinkedtoRussia,theUkrainianOrthodoxChurchMoscowPatriarchate.

AndwhilePopeFrancishasassuredthebishopsoftheUkrainianGreekCatholicChurchofhissupportfor
theirindependenceandhisadmirationfortheirvitalroleinbuildingcivilsocietyinUkraine,thePontifical
CouncilforPromotingChristianUnityandintheVaticansSecretariatofStatetoooftenseemtoregardthe
UGCCasacomplicatingfactorinCatholicRussianOrthodoxrelations.Why?Tworeasonssuggest
themselves.First,theveryexistence,andindeedtheenormousreligiousandinstitutionalvitality,ofthe
UkrainianGreekCatholicChurchisalivingreminderofthewickednessoftheLvivSoborof1946and
RussianOrthodoxyscomplicityinthisactofrepression:andthatremindercomplicatesVaticanrelations
withtheRussianOrthodoxleadership,whichcontinuestoinsist,oftenquiteaggressively,thatwhatwasdone
in1946wasthereturnofawaywardchurchtotheOrthodoxfold.Andsecond,becausetheUGCC,which
hasworkedcooperativelywithseveraloftheOrthodoxjurisdictionsinUkrainesincetheMaidanrevolution
ofdignityin201314,challengestheMoscowPatriarchatesclaimtobethesole,legitimateexpressionof
ChristianityintheRusskiimir,theRussianworld,which,bythereckoningofbothPatriarchKirilland
PresidentPutin,includesUkraine.

Asithappens,MajorArchbishopSviatoslavShevchuk,theheadoftheUGCC,andBishopBorysGudziak,
whochairstheUGCCsexternal-affairsdepartment,welcometheFrancisKirillmeeting.Meetingsbetween
RomeandMoscowoughttoberoutine,BishopGudziaktoldme.BothheandMajorArchbishop
Shevchukwouldbedelighted,hesaid,ifthisfirstmeetingwouldleadtoaregularexchangebetweenthe
popeandthepatriarchofMoscow,ofthesortthattakesplacewithotherOrthodoxleaders.Butbothmen
arealsoquiteawarethat,amongthemanyreasonswhyRussianOrthodoxleadersrefusedtoinviteJohn
PaulIItoRussiawasthelatepopesstrongsupportfortheUGCCandhisvenerationforitsStalin-era
martyrs,bothofwhichwereexpressionsofJohnPaulscommitmenttoreligiousfreedom.Shevchukand
GudziakarealsofullyawarethattheMoscowPatriarchatehasbeenputtingintensepressureonthe
PontificalCouncilforChristianUnityandtheVaticanSecretariatofStatetotemperanyrobustVatican
commentaryonUkraine,soasnottocreatewhattheMoscowPatriarchatewouldregardasanobstacletoa
FrancisKirillmeeting,toanormalizedrelationshipbetweentheleadersofCatholicismandRussian
Orthodoxy,andtowhatthepatriarchatesforeignminister,MetropolitanHilarion,describesascommon
effortstohelppersecutedChristiansintheMiddleEast.

THESTAKESFORPOPEFRANCIS
BoththehistoricalsituationfacingPopeFrancis,whichtouchesonissuesmorethanfourcenturiesold,and
thecurrentpointsoftensioninrelationsbetweentheVaticanandtheMoscowPatriarchatearethus
complicatedintheextreme.Today,theCatholicChurchsactivitiesareseverelycircumscribedinRussia
CatholicismisonthewaytobeingextinguishedinCrimeayetsomebraveandintelligentRussianOrthodox
thinkersarecallingfortheirChurchtolearnsomethingfromCatholicsocialdoctrineandreexamine
OrthodoxystheoryofChurchstatesymphonywhichseemsinpracticetomeanthesubservienceof
theChurchtothereigningczar,commissar,orpresident.Despitethesechallengesandthisintellectual
ferment,though,FrancisseffortstoshakeuptheRomanCuriahavenotyetsucceededinchangingthe
defaultpositionsthathavegovernedVaticanecumenicalencounterswithRussianOrthodoxy,andVatican
foreignpolicytowardRussia,formorethan40years.

PopeFranciswillmeetPatriarchKirillfullyawareoftheRussianpatriarchscloserelationshipwithVladimir
Putin,whomthepopeknowstobeamanofpowerratherthanprinciple,andaruthlessrulerwhodoesnot
caviltousetheRussianChurchasaninstrumenttoadvancehispoliticalendsincludinghisaimsinthe
MiddleEast,wherePutinwouldliketocloakhisstrategicambitionsintheguiseofadefenderofpersecuted
Christians.ThepopewillbeawareofthefragilityofRussianOrthodoxyinRussia,wherechurchattendance
onSundayinthecitiesisminuscule,despitePutinsconsiderableinvestmentinre-creatingRussianOrthodox
structuresdamagedordestroyedunderCommunism.Thepopewillalsoknowthat,shouldthecommuniqu
heandKirillwillissueinHavanaincludeanythingthatcanbeportrayedasacknowledgingtheRussianclaim
thattheLvivSoborof1946waslegitimate(whichmeansthattodaysUkrainianGreekCatholicChurchis
illegitimate),thelargestoftheEasternCatholicChurcheswillbedeeplyoffendedanditscapacitytomaintain
itsindependenceintodaysUkrainewillbeundercut,atamomentinUkrainesturbulentcontemporary
historywhenPresidentPetroPoroshenkomaybetempted,onceagain,topressforasingleUkrainian
Orthodoxjurisdictionasakindofnationalchurch.ThepopewillalsohavetodealwithKirillinsucha
waythathedoesnotseemtobeweakeningthepositionofEcumenicalPatriarchBartholomewof
Constantinople,whohasshowhimselffarmorefriendlytoCatholicismthantherecentandpresentRussian
Orthodoxleadership.

Andyet,whileavoidingthoselandmines,Franciswillwanttocreateanatmosphereinwhichthisfirst
meetingwithKirilldoesntturnintoaone-offaffairbutis,rather,thebeginningofaregularizationof
contactsbetweenpopeandpatriarch.Itsaverytallorder.

THESTAKESFORKIRILL
PatriarchKirillwillcometohismeetingwithPopeFrancisholdingwhatis,objectively,aweakerhandthan
thepopes.YetthoseVaticandefaultpositionstowardRussianOrthodoxy,combinedwithKirillslikely
strategicgoalsfortheHavanameetingandforanewrelationshipwiththeVatican,makehistasksomewhat
simplerthanFranciss.

ItisvirtuallycertainthatKirillisfarmoreinterestedintheupcominggreatandholycouncilofworld
Orthodoxy(which,onpresentplans,istomeetinCreteinJune)thaninanew,religiouslyserious,and
theologicallydeepenedencounterwithCatholicism.TheverytermThirdRomesuggeststhatKirill,likehis
predecessors,thinksthatConstantinople(theSecondRome)isaspentforce,andthatRussianOrthodoxy
byrightoughttobetheleaderofworldOrthodoxy.ThatheismeetingwithFrancisatallwillhelphimdrive
thatpointhome:He,likehisMuscovitepredecessors,istheonewhoplayedhard-to-getwiththeVaticanhe
won,andhegotthepopetomeetwithhiminaplaceofhischoosingheisnow,therefore,thedefactofirst-
among-equalsinOrthodoxy.

ThenthereisUkraine.KirillandMetropolitanHilarionmustknowthat,atthemoment,theyarelosing
Ukraine.Themostactive,vitalpartsofUkrainianOrthodoxyarethosethathavebrokentheircommunion
withtheMoscowPatriarchate,notleastbecauseofthepatriarchatesacquiescencetoPutinsaggressionin
CrimeaandtheDonbas.YetKirill,likePutin,isaveteranoftheKGBandassuch,heplaysalonggame.
BymeetingwiththepopeandtherebyunderscoringhisclaimtotheleadershipoftheOrthodoxworld(his
primeimperative),Kirillmaywellthinkthatheistakingastepthatadvancestwootherstrategicgoals:
postponingafinalrupturebetweentheMoscowPatriarchateandUkrainianOrthodoxy,andfurther
complicatingtheUkrainianGreekCatholicChurchsrelationshipwithRome.

FromMetropolitanHilarionscommentsontheFrancisKirillmeeting,italsoseemslikelythatKirillwill
presstheVaticantoworkcooperativelyonaidtoChristiansfacinggenocideinIraqandSyria.Thepopeand
hisdiplomatsarefullycognizantofthemortalperilChristiancommunitiesnowfacefromISISanswering
thisRussianOrthodoxcallforcooperationinaidingLevantineChristianswithoutbecomingadefacto
partnerinPutinspushtorestoreamajorRussianroleintheMiddleEastisgoingtorequireconsiderable
Vaticandexterity.

THERUSSIANFUTURE
Russiaremainsdeeplywoundedbymorethan70yearsofCommunism.Itspresent,sadconditiona
kleptocratic,mafia-likestateperchedatopacrumblingcivilsocietywithvastdemographicandpublic-health
problemsisanexpressionofthedamagedonebyLeninandhisBolshevikstoaonce-greatspiritual
culture.Thepathtoa21st-centuryRussiathathonorsthedignityofitsownpeopleandthatisnolongera
threattoitsneighborsortoworldorderisnotgoingtobeamatterofpoliticalandeconomicreformalone.
Thepathtoanobler,morehumaneRussianfutureisgoingtoinvolvearecoveryofthespiritualrichesofthe
RussianOrthodoxpast.AndreclaimingthatpatrimonyintodayscircumstanceswillrequireRussian
Orthodoxytodisentangleitselffromthelethalembraceofstatepower,whichcrippleditsevangelicalvitality
inthepastandcontinuestodosotoday.

ThusonehopesthatPopeFrancis,inhisprivateconversationswithPatriarchKirill,willinsistthatreligious
freedomisaprerequisitetotherebuildingofChristiancultureinsocietiesdeeplywoundedbythehyper-
secularistCommunistpast,andtomeetingthechallengesposedtodaybythesirensongsofasecular,
libertine,materialistfuture.Onthisfront,Franciscouldbothdefendhisownandsuggestapathwaytowarda
betterRussian21stcenturybycitingtheexampleoftheUkrainianGreekCatholicChurch:avibrantreligious
community,formedandsustainedbythespiritualtreasuresoftheChristianEast,thathasembracedreligious
freedomandisallthestrongerforhavingdoneso,bothspirituallyandinitsimpactonsociety.
ThatthemeetingbetweenpopeandpatriarchwilltakeplaceinCubawillstrikemanyasanotentirely
propitiousaugurythatsignificantprogresswillbemadealongtheselinesonFebruary12.ButasPope
BenedictXVIremindedChristiansinhissecondencyclical,SpeSalvi,wearesavedbyhope(Romans
8:24).TheFrancisKirillencountercouldopenthewaytoabetterecumenicalfuture,ifwhatfollowsinits
wakeisagenuinedialoguebetweenCatholicismandRussianOrthodoxyaboutChristianwitnessinthe21st-
centuryworld:adialoguethatwillrequire,ontheRomanside,aroot-and-branchreexaminationofthe
VaticandefaultpositionsonRussianOrthodoxy,andontheMuscoviteside,anabandonmentofthehardball
politicsandsubserviencetotheKremlinthathavelongdriventheMoscowPatriarchatesrelationswiththe
Vatican,withotherOrthodoxchurches,andwithRussianOrthodoxysneighborsinUkraine.

GeorgeWeigelisDistinguishedSeniorFellowofWashingtonsEthicsandPublicPolicyCenter,where
heholdstheWilliamE.SimonChairinCatholicStudies.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterGaladza<pgaladza@ustpaul.ca>
Date:Fri,Feb5,2016at11:19AM
Subject:PLEASECIRCULATE-StatementoftheSheptytskyInstituteregardingPopeFrancis'smeetingwithPatriarchof
Moscow
To:DeborahGyapong<dhgyapong@rogers.com>,PeterJessererSmith<peter.jesserer.smith@gmail.com>,GeorgeWeigel
<bfr10966@gmail.com>,"achirovsky@gmail.com"<achirovsky@gmail.com>,"kenbaseline@aol.com"<kenbaseline@aol.com>,
"Gudziako.Borys"<gudziak@yahoo.com>,"rroberson@usccb.org"<rroberson@usccb.org>,"aonuferko@yahoo.ca"
<aonuferko@yahoo.ca>,"staff@ukrweekly.com"<staff@ukrweekly.com>
Cc:FaithGoldy<Faithgoldy@gmail.com>,"Laschuk,Alex"<alaschuk@archtoronto.org>,"ukecatholic@hotmail.com"
<ukecatholic@hotmail.com>,DanchykGaladza<danielgaladza@gmail.com>,"oleh.turiy@gmail.com"<oleh.turiy@gmail.com>,
"o.OlehOleksa"<ooleh.sekretar@gmail.com>

Pleasecirculate.

PG

VeryRev.PeterGaladza,PhD
ActingDirectorandKuleFamilyProfessorofLiturgy
MetropolitanAndreySheptytskyInstitute

ofEasternChristianStudies

FacultyofTheology
SaintPaulUniversity
223MainStreet
Ottawa,OntarioCANADA

K1S1C4

OFFICEtel:613-236-1393,ext.2419

HOMEtel:613-230-0997
CELLtel:613-882-8272

HOMEaddress:

160McGillivrayStreet
Ottawa,OntarioCANADAK1S1K6

--

YuriS.Broda

[SEEATTACHMENTFORTHES/ISTATEMENT]

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:AndrewFink<finkandrewh@gmail.com>
Date:Fri,Feb5,2016at6:11PM
Subject:RussianpropagandaaboutMinsk/KhersonArmsCache/ContinuingKhersonPropaganda/Endofthe
Bessarabianproject?
To:"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

OngoingFighting/Minskpropaganda

Ifyouhavenotalready,makesureyoureadthisarticlefromtheDailyBeast:TheWar
inUkraineisBack-SoWhyWon'tAnyoneSaySo?(partialanswer,Ithink,isthat
RussianpropagandainEnglishdoesnotconstantlyyammeronaboutUkraineallthe
time,meaningjournalistsanddiplomatsintheUSelsewhereintheWestcanignore
thefighting.Also,thefronthasnotchanged,meaningnewstoriesaboutfightingare
notasexciting.)

Thefightingiscontinuing.Onebecomesinuredtothedailyreportsofshelling,the
dailycasualtyreports,thealmost-dailythreatsofanew"full-scalewar"alwaysonthe
horizon.EverynowandagainZakharchenkoorsomeonelikehimpipesup.Todayhe
saidthathebelievesthatattackshaveincreasedtenfoldandthatUkraineisplanning
alarge-scaleprovocation(surprise!).

QuickreminderaboutRussia'sbasicdiplomaticstrategyinallthis:Getvictoryonthe
cheapbyscaringtheEuropeanstoforceUkrainetobendtoRussia'swillandfederalize,
andwithdrawltheNationalGuardunitsfromthefrontlines,etc.(perhapswitha"Syria
deal"throwninforgoodmeasure).Justincaseyouarenotgettingthemessage,
Russianpropagandare-iterateditverystronglytodayinthisSputnikstory:"Russia
UrgesWesttoInfluenceKievtoFulfillMinskAgreements-Envoy"Ofcourse,thatis
Russia'sinterpretationoftheMinskagreements...

ArmsCachefoundinKherson:

TheSBUhasdisplayedphotographsofanarmscachetheyclaimtheyseizedinthe
villageofChervonyiChabaninKhersonOblast.Thisvillageislessthan2kmawayfrom
theborderbetweenKhersonandRussian-occupiedCrimea.TheSBUreportandphotos
ofthearmscacheshowtwoRPGs,twoIEDs,variousmortarbombs,grenades,etc.and
alargertubepaintedwithcrudecamouflage,thatlookstomealotlikeatubefora
Kornet-typeanti-tanksystem(helpwithidentificationappreciated.)

ThediscoveryofarmscachesinUkraineisnotunusualatallinLuhanskandDonetsk
Oblasts(onesuspectstheyareoftenarmscachesleftbehindbyretreatingRussian
troopsandirregularsin2014.)TherewereoccasionalarmscachesdiscoveredinOdessa
andKharkivOblast(thelastreportedonewasinlate-December2015whenaRussian
subversiveinKharkivsurrenderedtotheauthoritiesandgaveawaythelocation.)Asfar
asIcanremember,thisisthefirstseriousarmscachediscoveredinKherson.True,it
maynotbethearmscacheofaRussiangrouporproxygroup,perhapsaprofessional
armssmuggleroralocalmalcontent,ormaybesomeless-than-helpfulUkrainians
planteditinordertodrawattentiontothedanger.However,threethingsaboutthis
reportedcacheshouldcommandourattention:First,theunusualtypesofweapons.
Evenifthatlargetubeisnotananti-tankmissile,thecachehastwoRPGsand(most
interestingly)whatareapparentlytwoIEDs-whichdon'tshowupoftenoutsideofthe
ATOzone.Seconditslocation.ItwasfoundrightoutsidetheareawhereRussiahas
control(infact,thetownissituatedonareservoirthatliesrightontheborder
betweenOblasts,perhapssubversivesfloatedtheweaponsin?)Also,Chervonyi
ChabanwouldbeagoodplacetostageattacksonthecheckpointsleadingtoCrimea
alongtheM17highway(alsolessthan2kmfromthevillage.)Thisleadstoitemthree:
theongoingRussianpropagandacampaigndrawingtheattentionofradicalRussiansto
KhersonOblast,whichhasbeenwarningwatchersoftroubleaheadsincelate
December(seeemailDec24).

MoreRussianPropagandaaboutKherson:

Theclusterofblogs,"news"websites,andtwitterbotsandtrollsthatspitoutthe
mostextremeRussianpropagandaarecontinuingthemesrelatedtoKhersonOblast.
ThespikeinstoriesaboutKhersonOblaststartedinlateDecember(seeagain,email
Dec242015)Ithascontinuedatasteadylevelsincethen,withstoriespostedof
supposedatrocitiesandthesupposedgatheringstrengthoftheunited
Turkish/Ukrainian/TatarforcesintheOblast.Thispushhasincludedavideoappealfrom
DNRfighterstothepeopleofKhersonthatattackstheCrimeanTatarsandRightSector
activityinKherson(thevideowasreleasedaround30Januaryandalreadyhasnearly
100kviews.)

CominginforspecialvitriolareofcoursetheCrimeanTataractivists,andtheleaderof
theCrimeanBlockadeLenurIsmaylovisthebiggesttargetofthemall.Heiscalleda
terrorist,aproxyofTurkey,themanwhowillstartopenwarbetweenUkraineand
Russia,etc.TheRussiansseemparticularlyalarmed/interestedinthecreationofa
CrimeanTatarunitintheUkrainiannationalguard.OnepropagandistatNewsFront
recentlyclaimedthattheformationofaTatarunitwouldbean"illegalarmed
formation"andthereforeviolatethehallowedMinskagreements.

OverthelastfewdaysasectionoftheRussianpropogandaspherehasbeenhavinga
blastoveraveryanti-CrimeanTatarpostingsupposedlyfromlocalKhersonites.The
proclamation:

We,themovement"CommunityofKherson",appealtotheleadersoftheKherson
regionandofUkraineandaskthemtodeliverusfromtheoccupationfromthe
pseudopatriotsofthe(CrimeanTatar)Majlis.
Wehavealwayslivedinfriendship,peaceandharmonywithourneighbors.Ourhomes
areopentotheCrimeanTatars,butintheKhersonregionthereisnoplacefor
 terroristswhohidebehindthefinewordsof:"aggressor","separatists"and"thereturn
oftheCrimea",whiletheythemselvesstufftheirpockets.LenurMustafa-youarea
disgraceofyourpeople,youareapigdiggingtheearthunderyouroak(thisisa
referencetoafamousfable.)Youwillnevergetourland,andifyoudonotstop,we
willburyyour"graywolves"here.Thereisplentyofspace(forthat.)

Weapologizetothesiteownerandhisvisitors,butwewerenotallowedtoexitandto
beheard.WearealsoagainstthefranklyfalseKhersonmediaglossovertheproblems
ofsociety.

Thatlastlineindicatesthewebsitewashacked.Itsnotthefirsttime.Thiswebsitehas
beeninvolvedinthesekindsoftroublesbefore.InJulytheypostedasubversive,anti-
governmentproclamationthatincludedaflagoftheso-called"KhersonPeople's
Republic"(copyhere)which,accordingtoaFacebookpostfromUkrainianjournalist
AlinaSavchenko.waspostedbyhackers.Theannouncementwasquicklytakendown.
Lookslikethesamegroupoffolksisatitagain,thistimetryingtomakepeople
believethattheanti-CrimeanTatar"CommunityofKherson"isathing.

ThiswhilepropagandapushcouldbeaRussianattempttogetsomeleveragein
negotiationsbyscaringtheUkrainiangovernmentthattroubleisabouttostartand/or
gettheUkrainiangovernmenttoforcetheCrimeanTatarsoutofKhersonorawayfrom
activism.ThearmscachewithIEDsandrocketlaunchersrightacrossthebordermaybe
thefirstphysicalevidencethatthepropagandacampaignispresagingactualRussian
subversionintheOblast.

_______________

People'sRadaOfBessarabia-Isitallover?

Thequiteobviouslypro-RussianseparatistprojecthasbeendormantsinceNovember.
(backgroundreadingontheprojecthere).Theirlastannouncementthatthey
representedanindependentstatethatincludedsouthernMoldovainadditionto
UkrainianBessarabia(alongwithselfdefenseforces)wasfollowedbysilence,broken
onlybythearrestofsuspectedsubversivesinMoldovainDecember.

Theirwebsiteappearstobegonenow.(rada-bessarabia.org)Perhapsthispartofthe
storyofRussiansubversioninUkraineisover.

ForthoseofyouwhocanunderstandRussian,seethisverygoodTVdocumentaryfrom
Odesa'schannel7aboutthelifeoftheBessarabianPeople'sRada
project:http://youtu.be/HCqmsq9eCTQ

 Ourmailingaddressis:

WarinUkraine

Kiev

Kiev06

Ukraine

Addustoyouraddressbook

Wanttochangehowyoureceivetheseemails?
Youcanupdateyourpreferencesorunsubscribefromthislist

SheptytskyInstituteStatementreMeetingofP_0001.pdf

February 5, 2016

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Contact: Rev. Peter Galadza, PhD,

Acting Director, Sheptytsky Institute, Saint Paul University
1-613-882-8272
pgaladza@ustpaul.ca

Statement of the Metropolitan Andrey Sheptytsky Institute of

Eastern Christian Studies Regarding the Meeting of Pope Francis and
Patriarch Kirill of Moscow in Cuba

The Metropolitan Andrey Sheptytsky Institute of Eastern Christian Studies at Saint Paul
University in Ottawa, Canada, welcomes the announcement of the Holy Fathers meeting
with Patriarch Kirill in Cuba this Friday, February 12. We consider this an opportunity
for Pope Francis to raise important issues that have been of grave concern to Eastern
Catholics and many others for more than two decades.

Among these issues, beginning with the most recent, are the following:

1) The support by representatives of the Moscow Patriarchate for the

Kremlins aggression in Eastern Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea.
The violation of the territorial integrity of Ukraine is contrary to all international
law, in particular, the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 to which the Russian
government was a signatory. We believe that as a Christian institution the
Moscow Patriarchate is obliged to challenge the Russian governments violent
activity in Ukraine, activity that has led to the death of thousands of innocent
civilians.

2) The Moscow Patriarchates promotion of the notion of a Russian World

(Russkii Mir).
This notion has provided an ideological foundation for the Russian governments
aggression in Ukraine. The idea of a protectorate to be exercised by Russia
within Ukraine and other sovereign countries has hampered inter-ethnic harmony
and understanding. It evokes the Russification policies of the USSR.

3) The Moscow Patriarchates continued misrepresentation of ecclesiastical

events in Ukraine.
Frequently, the free and legitimate desire of Christians in Ukraine to choose
which Church they belong to, is portrayed by the Moscow Patriarchate as the

1
SheptytskyInstituteStatementreMeetingofP_0001.pdf

seizure of her parishes by illegitimate, and even violent, means. Ukraine does
not have an established Church or religion. Its legislation in this area is fully
pluralistic. Consequently, attempts by the Moscow Patriarchate in Ukraine to gain
privileged status run counter to the separation of church and state in Ukraine. In
fact, it is the Moscow Patriarchates false or exaggerated accusations of violence
that engender hostility among Christians who might otherwise resolve these issues
of ecclesial allegiance with far less rancor. The Moscow Patriarchate should be
apprised of the fact that in Ukraine her desire to maintain the kind of privileged
status that it enjoyed under Communism is harmful to its own interests not to
mention the proclamation of the Gospel.

4) The Moscow Patriarchates claims against the Ukrainian Greek Catholic

Church.
Since the emergence of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church (UGCC) from the
underground in 1989, the Moscow Patriarchate has consistently made mendacious
accusations against the UGCC. These began with claims of violent take-overs
of parishes in Western Ukraine and continued with false reports of
proselytism, which have never been substantiated. Meanwhile, the parishes that
chose to break with Moscow in the early 1990s were all parishes that had been
part of the UGCC until 1946. In that year the Soviet government, with the
complicity of representatives of the Moscow Patriarchate, forcibly liquidated the
UGCC throughout the USSR. The unwillingness of the Moscow Patriarchate to
honestly discuss these matters is another impediment to the healing of memories,
promoted so eloquently by Saint John Paul II. Moreover, every time that the
Moscow Patriarchate has been asked to provide a list of the victims of violence
with medical reports etc it has failed to do so.

5) An unwillingness of institutions associated with the Moscow Patriarchate to

publicly study the events of March, 1946 in an objective manner.
Next month marks the 70th anniversary of the Pseudo-Synod of Lviv of 1946. It
was at that gathering that the Soviet government declared the Ukrainian Greek
Catholic Church illegal. This led to the forced deportation of tens of thousands of
Catholics and the countless deaths of those who refused to leave the Catholic
Church and join the Russian Orthodox Church. In view of the constant
misrepresentation of these events by representatives of the Moscow Patriarchate,
last year the Metropolitan Andrey Sheptytsky Institute of Eastern Christian
Studies invited an academic institution with ties to the Moscow Patriarchate to co-
sponsor an international conference on the events of 1946. The conference would
have provided an excellent opportunity for both sides to objectively and fairly
study the facts. The request fell on deaf ears. Consequently, we ask His Holiness,
Pope Francis to propose such a conference to Patriarch Kirill, and hereby assert
our desire to cooperate in its realization. We believe that such a conference could
foster the Dialogue of Truth suggested by the Balamand Statement of 1993. It
would also provide an opportunity for Eastern Catholics and Eastern Orthodox,
more specifically, Ukrainian Greek Catholics and Russian Orthodox, to move in
the direction of a broader dialogue. We hope that Patriarch Kirills willingness to

2
SheptytskyInstituteStatementreMeetingofP_0001.pdf

overcome the reluctance to meet the Pope a reluctance that has inevitably led to
the perception that the Moscow Patriarchate fears the truth and avoids open
dialogue will also lead to a willingness to confront the issues listed above in a
fair and truly Christian manner. The cause of the Gospel and the credibility of
Christs Church can only benefit from such dialogue if the dialogue is indeed
sincere and open.

It is reported that among the chief aims of the meeting of Pope Francis and Patriarch
Kirill will be to discuss support for the persecuted Christians of the Middle East. The
Metropolitan Andrey Sheptytsky Institute of Eastern Christian Studies is truly gratified to
hear this. We believe that the suffering of our Christian brothers and sisters in the Middle
East has been virtually ignored in some circles, including certain Western governments.

In conclusion, we shall indeed be praying for Gods blessing on this historic meeting
between the Pope and Patriarch. We ask that the Spirit of Truth guide all those involved
in this meeting and those reporting on it. May that Heavenly King indeed come and dwell
within us and purify all our intentions and actions (cf. Byzantine-Rite Prayer to the Holy
Spirit).

3
 From: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Senttime: 01/12/201602:28:05PM
To: swallen@1scom.net
Subject: InternetNotes12January2016
Attachments: IN12Jan16.docx

InternetNotes12January2016

CommentariesonPutinsBildinterview

MoskovskiyKomsomoletssaysthattheKremlin.ruwebsitealteredthetextoftheBildinterview

PartIIofPutinsBildinterview(Russiaaregionalpower?RussiaandtheG-8Russia-NATORussia-Turkey/Su-24
RussiasaircampaigninSyriaOnAssadaLibyascenarioinSyria?Constitutionalreformandearlyelectionsin
SyriaAssadsfateISISSaudiArabia-Iran)

WillRussiarunoutofmoneywith$30/barreloil?(R100/dollar?)

Chayka:TheProsecutorsofficewillnotWeakenitsgrip

SoloveysaysUkraineisrightnottobuyRussiangas

CommentariesonPutinsBildinterview

Seeyesterdaysnotes

AninterviewwiththeINDEMfoundationsGeorgiySatarov:http://ru.krymr.com/content/article/27481403.html

Atfirst,SatarovsayshecantfigurewhatthepointoftheinterviewwasLater,hesaystheinterviewwas,ofcourse,meantforan
externalaudience,notfortheRussiandomesticaudience,butVVPscommentsabouttheannexationofCrimea(thatthe
parliamentwaslegallyelectedandvotedtoholdareferendum)setalandmineunderRussia,onethatcouldexplodeatsomepoint,
sincelogically,anycomponentpartoftheRussianFederationcoulddothesame.Putinisreproducingthekindofconditionsthat
broughtonthecollapseoftheUSSR.So,hiswordswerenotmeantforadomesticaudience.Iftheywere,thenhiswordsamount
toaprovocation.Itsobvious,though,thathiscommentsindicatedawaythatwouldnotleadtotheunificationofEurope,buttoits
division.WhenPutinmentionedwhatmistakesRussiahadmadenotassertingnationalinterestshewastalkingaboutmistakes
madein1990.ButRussiahaditsowndomesticproblemstodealwith.Theformulationofforeignpolicyatthetimewasopenness
tojoining,firstofall,Europeanstructures.WhataboutPutinssayingthatlowoilpricesandsanctionswouldhelprevitalizethe
Russianeconomy?Well,ifhighoilpricesrepresentedathreattotheeconomy,thenwhywasntthatacknowledgedtenyearsago?
Whatthehellwashedoingforallthoseyears?Andifherecognizesthatnow,itstoolate

Vedomostistake:

http://www.vedomosti.ru/opinion/articles/2016/01/12/623631-putin-nachat-nulya

VedomostisaystheinterviewwasanothersignaltotheWestRussiawantspeace.TheWesthastoacknowledgetheinjusticeof
itsapproachtoRussiaandremovesanctions,whichwereamistake(butdontreallyhavetoomuchinfluenceontheRussian
economy,accordingtoVVP).Putinwantstostartwithacleanslate,toforgetrecentdisagreements.Afterall,everyoneisguilty,
thoughRussialeastofall.BothVVPsaddresstotheFederalAssemblyandhisyear-endpressconferenceweredevotedmore
thanpreviouslytoforeignpolicyissues
PutinmayhavesaidthatsanctionsandlowoilpricescouldenduphelpingRussiaseconomy,butitslikelythatvlastrecognizes
thatlowoilpricescreateamoreserioussituationfortheeconomythatofficialsletonearlier.Russiahasnotsucceededingetting
supportinAsia.

TheKremlinwantstoreachagreementwiththeWestoneasingsanctionsandnewprinciplesofcooperationwhiletheeconomic
andpoliticalsituationisstillnotcritical,sayspolitilogNikolayPetrov.PutinishintingthatRussiasappetitesarelessthanthoseof
theStalin-eraorBrezhnev-eraUSSRandthatanewYaltawillsuiteveryone.VedomosticoncludesthattheWestwillnotgo
foradivisionoftheworld,butdialoguewithPutinwillcontinue


NezavisimayaGazetaRussiaseesitselfsurroundedbyenemies:

http://www.ng.ru/editorial/2016-01-12/2_red.html

ThatswhattheinterviewshowedthisasPutinjustrecently(beforetheNewYear)approvedanewnationalsecuritystrategy,
onethatstressesbuildingupdefenseandnationalaccord,raisinglivingstandardsandtheeconomyscompetitiveness,aswellas
securingforRussiastatusasoneoftheworldsleadinggreatpowersThepreviousnationalstrategywasadoptedunder
Medvedevin2009andwassupposedtobeineffectto2020.Thefactthatanewstrategywasformulatedindicatesthatthe
Kremlinseesthesecuritysituationchangingtherearenewthreatsandthatmeanstheremustbeanewapproach.

Inthe40pagesofthenationalstrategydocument,thereare17pointsrelatedtodefensecapabilityandsecurity12toeconomics
7toculture5tolivingstandardsandhealthcare4oneducation,ecology,andscienceand20pointstouchingonstrategic
stabilityandRussiasrelationswiththeoutsideworld.
Ifearlier,theemphasiswascooperationwiththeG-8(RussianparticipationwassuspendedaftertheannexationofCrimea),the
newdocumentstressesrelationswithBRICS,RIK(Russia-India-China),theShanghaiorganization,theAsia-PacificEconomic
Community,andtheG-20,aswellaswithCIScountries,Abkhazia,SouthOssetia,andthecreationofanon-blockmechanism
forstabilityintheAsia-Pacificregion.Theseaimswerenotmentionedinthepreviousstrategydocument.

BasicthreatstoRussiansecurityincludeUkraine(anareaofinstabilityonRussiasborders),instabilitycausedinpartbyEUand
USsupportforastatecoupinKiev

Thenewstrategydocumentisthemostanti-Westernofanyadoptedsince1997.NATOandtheEUareslammedfornot
providingforEuropeansecurity(themigrantcrisis),theriseofISISconnectedwithdoublestandardsonterrorismBut
despiteallthisandtheanti-missilesystem,too,thedocumentsaysthatMoscowdoesnotintendtogiveuponfull-fledged
partnershipwithWashington.
Thetoneofthenewdocumentismoredefensive-aggressivethanpastnationalstrategies.Itdiesnotruleoutusingmilitary
forceifothermeansarenotsuccessful

MoskovskiyKomsomoletssaysthattheKremlin.ruwebsitealteredthetextoftheBildinterview

http://www.mk.ru/politics/2016/01/12/kreml-otredaktiroval-intervyu-putina-bild-lishiv-ego-ostrykh-voprosov.html

MKcomparestheGermantotheRussianversionontheKremlin.ruwebsiteandconcludesthatintheGerman,thequestionsBild
formulatedweresharperintonethanthecomplimentarytoneoftheRussianversion.Anexampleisgivenfromthefirst
exchangethekremlin.ruversionhadtheBildquestionontheendoftheColdWarandalltheproblemsthatfollowedendingwith
Whatdidwedowrong?ButtheGermanshowsnoindicationthattheGermanjournalisthadtheEuropeansasdoinganything
wrong.ThejournalistendedbycommentingonhowbadmutualrelationswereevenaftertheColdWar:

,,,
.

:25-
.,
.?.
:
?

WhenPutinwasaskedabouttheCrimea,herepliedWhatdoyoumeanbyCrimea?,andtheRussianofthejournalistsreply
toPutinwasachangeofborders.TheGermanwasmoreexpansivethejournalistmentionedaunilateralchangeofborders
andthatrespectfornationalborderswaswhattheEuropeansystemwasbasedon:
?
,:
,.

InthesegmentonfulfillingtheMinskagreements,kremlin.ruleftoutthecommentfromBildthatshotswerestillbeingfiredin
EasternUkraine,shotsfiredbytheforcesofthecentralgovernmentandseparatistssupportedbyRussia:
,
.


Inthesecondpartoftheinterview(Seebelow),thekremlin.rusiteleftoutacommentaboutRussianmembershipintheG-8being
suspendedtheEuropeancommunityhadpracticallyplacedRussiaoutsidethelaw:
.

TheRussianversionhadaquestiontoPutinaboutwhetherPutinwaspreparedtotakestepstomaketheG-7aG-8again:
,
?

TheGermanhadBildcommentingthatAssadhadkilledthousands,somethingthatwasindisputable.TheRussianwasmilder
Assadhaddeliveredblowsagainsthisownpopulation:

ThereareotherexamplesgivenofalterationsfromGermantoRussian,butMKendsbysayingjustwhichistheclosestishardto
determine,sincetheBildwebsitehasavideoinwhichonlyPutinsanswersareshown
Comment:WiththegiveandtakebetweenPutinandtheBildjournalists,thatseemslikeaconfusingwaytopresent
thevideo.

PartIIofPutinsBildinterview(Russiaaregionalpower?RussiaandtheG-8Russia-NATORussia-Turkey/Su-24
RussiasaircampaigninSyriaOnAssadaLibyascenarioinSyria?Constitutionalreformandearlyelectionsin
SyriaAssadsfateISISSaudiArabia-Iran)

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51155

Question:MrPresident,willyoutakeanystepstore-establishtheG7formatastheG8?
Andanotherquestion:whatdidyouthinkwhentheUSPresidentsaidthatRussiaisaregionalpower?

VladimirPutin:Ididnotthinkanythinginparticular.Everyindividual,allthemoresothePresident
oftheUnitedStates,isentitledtohisorherownopiniononanything,onpartnersandonothercountries.
Thatishisownopinion,asIalsoknowhisopinionthattheAmericannation,theUnitedStatesisunique.
Icannotagreewitheitherofthoseopinions.
LetmeclarifyafewthingsaboutRussia.First,wedonotclaimtheroleofasuperpower.Thisroleisvery
costlyanditismeaningless.Oureconomyisfifthorsixthintheworldintermsofvolume.Itmayhave
moveddowntoalowerplaceatpresenttakingintoaccounttheeconomicdifficultiesIhavementionedbut
weareconfidentthatwehaveverygooddevelopmentprospectsandpotential.Weoccupy,roughly,
thesixthplaceintheworldintermsofpurchasingpowerparity.
IfwesaythatRussiaisaregionalpower,weshouldfirstdeterminewhatregionwearereferringto.Look
atthemapandask:Whatisit,isitpartofEurope?Orisitpartoftheeasternregion,borderingonJapan
andtheUnitedStates,ifwemeanAlaskaandChina?OrisitpartofAsia?Orperhapsthesouthern
region?Orlookatthenorth.Essentially,inthenorthweborderonCanadaacrosstheArcticOcean.
Orinthesouth?Whereisit?Whatregionarewespeakingabout?Ithinkthatspeculationsaboutother
countries,anattempttospeakdisrespectfullyaboutothercountriesisanattempttoproveones
exceptionalismbycontrast.Inmyview,thatisamisguidedposition.

Question:AndwhatabouttheG8?

VladimirPutin:WeplannedtohosttheG8summitin2014.IthinkRussianeverbecameafull-fledgedG8
member,sincetherewerealwaysseparatenegotiationsbetweenforeignministersoftheotherseven
countries.Iwouldnotsaythatthismechanismisuseless.Meetings,discussions,seekingsolutionstogether
arealwaysbeneficial.
IbelievethatRussiaspresencewasuseful,sinceitprovidedanalternativeviewonsomeissuesunder
discussion.WeexamineprettymuchthesameissueswithintheG20,APECintheEastandwithinBRICS.
WewerereadytohosttheG8summitin2014.Itwasnotuswhodidnotgosomewhereothercountriesdid
notcometoRussia.Ifourcounterpartsdecidetocomeforavisit,theywillbemostwelcome,butwehave
notbookedanyticketsyet.

Question:Whatdoyouthinkaboutthepossibilityofre-establishingcooperation,ifnotwithintheG8,then,
perhaps,withNATO?TherewastheRussia-NATOCouncilafterall,andyouconductedjointmilitary
exercises.Isthereachancetore-establishsuchcooperationorshouldweforegotheprospectaltogether?

VladimirPutin:Attheoutset,theideaofcreatingtheCouncilwasactivelysupported,ifnotinitiated,byMr
Berlusconi,theformerPrimeMinisterofItaly,andIbelieveitwasinItalythatwesignedthedocument
onestablishingtheRussia-NATOCouncil.ItwasnotRussiathatcutoffcooperationthroughtheG8
ortheRussia-NATOCouncil.Wearewillingtointeractwitheveryone,oncethereisamatterforcommon
discussion.Wethinkthatthereisone,butarelationshipcanbehappyonlywhenthefeelingismutual.If
wearenotwelcomeaspartners,thatisfinewithusthen.

Question:Regrettably,atthemomenttheRussia-NATOrelationsareatthestageofconfrontation,rather
thancooperation.TurkishmilitaryforceshavedownedaRussianaircraft,andRussianandTurkishwarships
arereportedtocomedangerouslyclosetooneanotherallthemoreoften.Doyouthinkthatsuch
developmentsmayatacertainpointcauseanescalationfromacoldwartoactualhostilities?

VladimirPutin:TurkeyisaNATOmember.However,theproblemsthathaveemergedhavenothingtodo
withTurkeysNATOmembershipnobodyhasattackedTurkey.Insteadoftryingtoprovideuswith
anexplanationforthewarcrimetheycommitted,thatis,fordowningourfighterjetthatwastargeting
terrorists,theTurkishgovernmentrushedtoNATOheadquartersseekingprotection,whichlooksquiteodd
and,inmyview,humiliatingforTurkey.
Irepeat,NATOhastoprotectitsmembersfromattack,butnobodyhasattackedTurkey.IfTurkeyhas
vestedinterestselsewhereintheworld,intheadjacentcountries,doesitmeanthatNATOmustprotect
andsecuretheseinterests?DoesitmeanthatGermany,asaNATOmember,musthelpTurkeytoexpand
intoneighbouringterritories?
Ihopethatsuchincidentswillnotcauselarge-scalehostilities.Ofcourse,weallrealisethatRussia,once
underthreat,woulddefenditssecurityinterestsbyallavailablemeansatitsdisposal,shouldsuchthreats
againstRussiaarise.

Question:NowletsturntoSyria,ifyoudonotmind.
Wesaythatwearetacklingcommonchallengesthere.ThisisthejointfightagainstISISinIraqandSyria.
However,somepeopleintheWestsaythatRussianmilitaryforcesinSyriaarefightingtheanti-Assad
rebels,ratherthanISIS.WhatwouldbeyourresponsetotheallegationsthatRussiaishittingthewrong
targets?
VladimirPutin:Theyaretellinglies.Look,thevideosthatsupportthisversionappearedbeforeourpilots
evenstartedtocarryoutstrikesagainstterrorists.Thiscanbecorroborated.However,thosewhocriticise
usprefertoignoreit.
AmericanpilotshittheDoctorsWithoutBordershospitalinKunduz,Afghanistan,bymistake,Iamsure.
Therewerecasualtiesandfatalitiesamongciviliansanddoctors.Westernmediaoutletshaveattempted
tohushthisup,todropthesubjectandhaveaveryshortmemoryspanwhenitcomestosuchthings.They
mentioneditacoupleoftimesandputitonice.Andthosefewmentionswereonlyduetoforeigncitizens
fromtheDoctorsWithoutBorderspresentthere.
Whonowremembersthewipedoutweddingparties?Over100peoplewerekilledwithasinglestrike.
Yetthisphonyevidenceaboutourpilotsreportedlystrikingciviliantargetskeepscirculating.Ifwetag
thelivepipelinesthatconsistofthousandsofpetrolandoiltankersasciviliantargets,than,indeed,one
mightbelievethatourpilotsarebombingthesetargets,buteveryoneisbombingthem,including
theAmericans,theFrenchandeveryoneelse.

Question:However,itisclearthatSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assadiscarryingoutstrikesagainsthisown
population.Canwesaythatal-Assadisyourally?

VladimirPutin:Youknow,thisisarathersubtleissue.IthinkthatPresidental-Assadhasmademany
mistakesinthecourseoftheSyrianconflict.However,dontweallrealisefullwellthatthisconflictwould
neverhaveescalatedtosuchadegreeifithadnotbeensupportedfromabroadthroughsupplyingmoney,
weaponsandfighters?Tragically,itiscivilianswhosufferinsuchconflicts.
Butwhoisresponsibleforthat?Isitthegovernment,whichseekstosecureitssovereigntyandfightsthese
anti-constitutionalactions,orthosewhohavemastermindedtheanti-governmentinsurgency?
Regardingyourquestionifal-AssadisanallyornotandourgoalsinSyria.Icantellyoupreciselywhatwe
donotwanttohappen:wedonotwanttheLibyanorIraqiscenariotoberepeatedinSyria.Ihavetogive
duecredittoEgyptianPresidentAbdelFattahel-Sisi,andItoldhimthismyself,becausehadhenottaken
ontheresponsibility,demonstratedfortitudeandbroughtthecountryundercontrol,thenwemighthave
witnessedtheLibyanscenarioinEgypt.Inmyview,noeffortshouldbesparedinstrengtheninglegitimate
governmentsintheregionscountries.ThatalsoappliestoSyria.EmergingstateinstitutionsinIraq
andinLibyamustberevivedandstrengthened.SituationsinSomaliaandothercountriesmustbe
stabilised.StateauthorityinAfghanistanmustbereinforced.However,itdoesnotmeanthateverything
shouldbeleftasis.Indeed,thisnewstabilitywouldunderpinpoliticalreforms.
AsfarasSyriaisconcerned,Ithinkthatweshouldworktowardsaconstitutionalreform.Itisacomplicated
process.Then,earlypresidentialandparliamentaryelectionsshouldbeheld,basedonthenew
Constitution.ItistheSyrianpeoplethemselveswhomustdecidewhoandhowshouldruntheircountry.This
istheonlywaytoachievestabilityandsecurity,tocreateconditionsforeconomicgrowthandprosperity,so
thatpeoplecanliveintheirownhomes,intheirhomeland,ratherthanfleetoEurope.

Question:Butdoyoubelieveal-Assadisalegitimateleaderifheallowsthedestructionofhiscountrys
population?

VladimirPutin:Itisnothisgoaltodestroyhiscountryspopulation.Heisfightingthosewhoroseupagainst
himwithdeadlyforce.Andifthecivilianssuffer,Ithinkthattheprimaryresponsibilityforthisiswiththose
whofightagainsthimwithdeadlyforceaswellasthosewhoassistarmedgroups.
AsIhavealreadysaid,though,thisdoesnotmeanthateverythingisallrightoutthereandthateveryoneis
right.ThisisexactlywhyIbelievepoliticalreformsareneededsomuchthere.Thefirststepinthatdirection
shouldbetodevelopandadoptanewConstitution.

Question:If,contrarytoexpectations,al-Assadlosestheelections,willyougranthimthepossibility
ofasyluminyourcountry?

VladimirPutin:Ithinkitisquiteprematuretodiscussthis.WegrantedasylumtoMrSnowden,whichwas
farmoredifficultthantodothesameforMral-Assad.
First,theSyrianpeopleshouldbegiventheopportunitytohavetheirsay.Iassureyou,ifthisprocessis
conducteddemocratically,thenal-Assadwillprobablynotneedtoleavethecountryatall.Anditisnot
importantwhetherheremainsPresidentornot.
Youhavebeentalkingaboutourtargetsandmeans,andnowyouaretalkingaboutal-Assadbeingourally.
DoyouknowthatwesupportmilitaryoperationsofthearmedoppositionthatcombatsISIS?Armed
oppositionagainstal-AssadthatisfightingISIS.Wecoordinateourjointoperationswiththemandsupport
theiroffensivesbyairstrikesinvarioussectionsofthefrontline.Thisishundreds,thousandsofarmed
peoplefightingISIS.Wesupportboththeal-Assadsarmyandthearmedopposition.Someofthemhave
publiclydeclaredthis,othersprefertoremainsilent,buttheworkison-going.

Question:Finally,Iwouldliketotouchuponatopicthathasnevercomeupbefore,thatistheriftbetween
SaudiArabiaandIran,asifSyriawasnotenough.Doesitmeanthatthisriftcanleadustoaverygrave
conflict?

VladimirPutin:IthamperstheeffortstosettletheSyriancrisisandthefightagainstterrorism,aswell
astheprocessofhaltingtheinflowifrefugeestoEurope,thatmuchiscertain.
Asforwhetherthiswillleadtoamajorregionalclash,Idonotknow.Iwouldrathernottalkoreventhink
intheseterms.WehaveverygoodrelationswithIranandourpartnershipwithSaudiArabiaisstable.
Ofcourse,weregretthatthesethingshappenedthere.Butyouhavenodeathpenaltyinyourcountry.
Despiteaveryhardperiodinthe1990searly2000s,whenwewerefightingterrorisminRussia,we
abolishedthedeathpenalty.AndthereisnodeathpenaltyinRussiaatpresent.Therearecertaincountries
thatusethedeathpenaltySaudiArabia,theUnitedStatesandsomeothers.
Weregretthishashappened,especiallygiventhattheclerichadnotbeenfightingagainstSaudiArabia
withlethalforce.Yetitistruethatanembassyattackisatotallyunacceptableoccurrenceinthemodern
world.AsfarasIknow,theIranianauthoritieshavearrestedseveralperpetratorsoftheassault.Ifour
participationinanyformisneeded,wearereadytodoeverythingpossibletoresolvetheconflictassoon
aspossible.

Question:Onelastquestion,MrPresident.
DuringthepreparationsfortheWinterOlympicsinSochi,therewasheavycriticismintheWest
ofdemocraticdevelopmentandhumanrightssituationinRussia.Doyouexpectsimilarcriticismtoarise
againduringthepreparationsforthe2018FIFAWorldCup?
IthinktheRussianlanguageismoreextensivethanGerman.(Notingthelongtranslationofthequestion
fromGermanintoRussian.)
VladimirPutin:IwouldsaytheGermanlanguageismoreprecise.
TheRussianlanguageismorediverse,moreelegant.However,suchgeniusmindsas,say,Goethemake
theGermanlanguagesoundveryelegantandbeautiful.OnecanfeelitsbeautyonlyinGerman,andtobe
abletofeelitoneneedstounderstandit.
Asfarasdemocracyisconcerned,therulingclassesusuallytalkaboutfreedomtopullthewoolover
theeyesofthosewhomtheygovern.ThereisnothingnewaboutdemocracyinRussia.Aswehavealready
identified,democracyistheruleofthepeopleandtheinfluenceofthepeopleovertheauthorities.Wehave
learnedverywellthelessonofone-partyrulethatoftheCommunistParty(CPSU).Therefore,wemade
ourchoicelongagoandwewillcontinuedevelopingdemocraticinstitutionsinourcountry.Atpresent,77
politicalpartiescantakepartinparliamentaryelectionsinRussia.Wehavecomebacktodirect
gubernatorialelections.
Weareadvancingtheinstrumentsofdirectdemocracy,meaningvariouspublicorganisations,andwill
continuetodoso.TherecanbenoidenticalclichsindemocracybeitAmerican,European(German),
RussianorIndian.DoyouknowthattwiceinAmericanhistorythePresidentwaselectedbythemajority
ofdelegatesrepresentingtheminorityofvoters?Doesitmeantheabsenceofdemocracy?Ofcoursenot.
Butitisnottheonlyorthemostimportantproblem.OneoftheEuropeanleadersoncetoldme:
IntheUnitedStatesitisimpossibletorunforpresidencywithoutafewbilliondollarsinyourpocket.
Now,regardingtheparliamentarysystemofdemocracy.
Iamrepeatedlyasked:HowlonghaveyoubeenPresident?Butinaparliamentarydemocracy,theperson
numberoneisthePrimeMinister,whocanHeadtheGovernmentanunlimitednumberoftimes.
Wehavereturnedtodirectelectionsofregionalheads.Insomecountries,however,headsofregionsare
appointedbythecentralgovernment.Iamnotsure,Imaybewrong,itisprobablybettertoleaveitout
ortodouble-checkit,but,asfarasIknow,thatisthecaseinIndia.
Westillhaveanumberofproblemstosolvebeforepeoplefeelconfidentthattheyhaverealinfluenceover
theauthoritiesandthattheauthoritiesrespondtotheirdemands.Wearegoingtoworktowardsimproving
ourinstruments.
Asfortheattemptstousesportinpoliticalriftsandpoliticalcompetition,Ibelievethatisahugemistake.
Thatiswhatstupidpeopledo.Ifproblemsarise,particularlyattheinterstatelevel,sport,art,music,ballet
andoperaaretheverymeansthatshouldbringpeopleclosertogetherratherthandividethem.Itisvital
tofosterthisroleofartandsportratherthanbelittleandsuppressit.

Question:Thankyou,MrPresident,forawonderfulandverydetailedconversation.

Comment:TheMKpieceabovehadtheGermanassimplyThanksfortheinterview.

WillRussiarunoutofmoneywith$30/barreloil?(R100/dollar?)

Seeyesterdaysnotesforabitonstillfallingoilprices.

http://www.intellinews.com/will-russia-run-out-of-money-with-30-oil-88243/?
inf_contact_key=149d10ee35e3e57684e07b3a2644ab51618c5a53a58fe417f3dfafa673d39830
OilpricescrashedagaininthefirstweekofJanuary,fallingtoan11-yearlowofabout$32perbarrel.TheRussianfederalbudgetwas
alreadygoingtostruggleundertheofficial$50oilpriceassumption,andfinishthisyearwithaforecast3%deficit.Butifoilpricesstay
thislow,won'tRussia'sbudgetballoonandburnupalltheKremlin'slaudedreservefundsintheprocess?

TheWorldBankreiteratedits0.7%contractionofGDPin2016onJanuary9aseconomicblackcloudsrapidlygatheredinthefirstweek
oftheNewYear.ThatstandsagainsttheRussianMinistryofFinance'sofficialforecastof0.7%growth,ifaverageoilpricescomeinat
$50attheendofthisyear.

"Theglobaleconomywillneedtoadapttoanewperiodofmoremodestgrowthinlargeemergingmarkets,characterizedbylower
commoditypricesanddiminishedflowsoftradeandcapital,"WorldBankSeniorVicePresidentandChiefEconomistKaushikBasusaidin
areporttitled"GlobalEconomicProspectsin2016:SpilloversamidWeakGrowth."

Withtherenewedtumbleinoilpricesthatassumptionofoilat$50islookingshakierthanever.Ifoilfallstoanaverageof$40theneven
theMinistryofFinancedoesn'texpectanyeconomicgrowththisyear,butacontractionof1.5%instead.Andifoilfallstoanaverageof
$30thecontractionwouldbe2.4%,accordingtoanalystsatBankofAmericaMerrillLynch,whichisinthemiddleoftherangeformost
investmentbanks'predictions.

Allsaidanddone,a1-3%economiccontractionwouldbeunpleasantbutmanageableasRussianshavebuiltupalargeincomebufferover
theyearsaswageswererunningwellaheadofinflationformostofthelastdecadeandcorporateshaveamassedtheirownwarchestsof
cash.Themoredifficultproblemwillbefinancingthefederalbudgetdeficit.

The2016budgetassumesadeficitof3%ofGDP,orRUB1.7trillion($28.32bn),alevelthatPresidentVladimirPutinhasdeclareda"red
line".However,thistargetwillalmostcertainlybemissedevenifoildoesaverage$50,asthestatewillhavetobailoutitsdefacto
developmentbankVEB,whichneedsaRUB1.2trillion($20bn)injectionoffreshcapitaltodealwithbadloansincurredfromcaseslike
underwritinginvestmentsfortheSochiOlympics.

AndevencountingVEB'sbail-out(thegovernmentisstilltryingtofindawaytogiveitmoneythatwon'tcomeoutofthepublicpurse)
theMinistryofFinancehasalreadywarnedthatthecurrentbudgetassumptionwith$50oilmaybetoooptimistic:accordingFinance
MinisterAntonSiluanov'scalculations,revenuescouldbeRUB750bnlessthantheforecastinthecurrentofficialbudget,whichwould
leadtoadeficitof4.1%ofGDP.

Anditallgetsworseastheaverageoilpricein2016sinks:withoilat$40thedeficitbecomes5.2%(againwithoutcountingintheVEB
cost),orarevenueshortfallofRUB4.1trillion.

Wheresthecash?

SoitlooksverylikelythatthegovernmentwillhavetofindbetweenRUB1.7trillionandRUB4.1trilliontofundthedeficit(andadd
RUB1.2trillionforVEBandifpossiblyanotherRUB2.5trillionifthestategivesthesamesupporttothebankingsectorifgavein2015).

Whereisthismoneygoingtocomefrom?Thestateisreluctanttoborrowathomeduetohighinterestrates(thebudgethasRUB300bn
ofborrowingagainsttheRUB1trillionin"normal"years)andcan'tborrowinternationallythankstotheWest'sfinancialsanctions(the
budgetassumes$1.5bnofinternationalborrowing,presumablyfromtheChinese).

Theonlyresourceleftarethetworeservefunds:theReserveFundthatisspecificallymeantforpluggingbudgetdeficitsinhardtimes
andtheNationalWelfareFundthatisearmarkedforpensionpaymentsinthefuture.

Attheendof2015,thefundsheldRUB3.4trillionandRUB4.6trillionrespectively.ThestatehasalreadysaiditwillspendatleastRUB2.5
trillionfromtheReserveFundtosupplementthe2016budgetspending,whichleavesareserveofRUB1.1trillion.ButSiluanovalready
admittedinDecemberthatheexpectstheReserveFundtobefullyexhaustedbytheendof2016.

Ifoilends2016at$50thenthestatewillscrapethroughtheyearwithRUB1trillioninreserve,butifoilfallsto$40thentherewillstillbe
atleastaRUB2trillionshortfall(notcountingtheextracosts).ThetemptationtotaptheNationalWelfareFundwillalmostcertainly
becomeoverwhelmingandatleasthalfofthatfund,ifnotallofit,couldbeburntuptoo.ThebottomlineisRussiacangetthrough2016
evenwithoilat$40withtheresourcesithasinhandbutitwouldgointo2017flyingonfumes.

AusterityRussianstyle

Thefinancialheadachesthegovernmentisfacingaremademuchworsebythepoliticalcalendar.Thereareparliamentaryelectionsslated
forthisautumnandcrucialpresidentialelectionsin2018wherePutincanstandforthelasttime(undertherulesofthecurrent
constitution).Ifanythingthegovernmentwillwanttoincreasespending,notcutit.

Butthatwillbehard.Russia'sregionsarealreadyunderpressuretoupspendingaspartofthe2012'Maydecrees'.Butunlikethecentre
theydon'thavebucketsofpetrodollarrevenuesfloodingintotheircoffersandarealreadyunderseverefinancialpressure,whichcould
cometoaheadin2018accordingtointernationalratingsagencyStandard&Poor's(S&P).

Socialspendingalreadyaccountsforaquarter(27.6%)ofexpenditure,whichsofarhaslargelyremaineduntouchedasmuchofthisgoes
tothebluecollarworkersthatarePutin'scoreconstituents.Thegovernmentcouldmakeentitlementsmoredifficulttoget,butthatwould
representabigpoliticalriskandtestexactlyhowfragilePutin'ssky-highpopularityreallyis,assomehavesuggested.

Pensionersweretherecipientsofsignificantbudgetlargessinthe2012elections,butthistimeroundtheyhavealreadybeensacrificed
afterindexrateforpensionhikeswerecutto4%,waybelowinflation.

Cuttingmilitaryspendingisthemostobviousandleastpainfulcutthestatewillmakeandwillalmostcertainlynothappen.Indeed,during
thebudgetdebatestheMinistryofFinancepushedhardtocurtainmilitaryspendingandwaspromptlyslappeddown.
Putinhasmadeitcrystalclearthatthemodernisationofthearmedforcesissacrosanctandiswillingtolaytheeconomyonthesacrificial
altertohisgeopoliticalgoalswhateverthosemaybe.Athirdofbudgetexpenditure(32%)willgotothemilitarywithveryfewcuts(and
$1.2bnfortheSyriacampaign).

Increasinglythegovernmentseemstobegraspingatstrawstofillthegap.InDecember,SiluanovannouncedanambitiousRUB1trillion
privatisationprogrammefor2016withsomebigsexynamesonthemootedlist,includingstakesinoilmajorRosneft,shippinggiant
SovkomflotandoilminorRosen.DeputyFinanceMinisterAlexeiMoisseevtoldinvestorsinLondonthatSovkomflotwillbesold"come
whatmay".Buttheprivatisationplanisexactlythesameonethatwasfloatedinthesummerof2008attheendoftheboomyears,which
cametonothingthenbeforetheglobalcrisisbroke.Eveniftheprivatisationtargetwashit,thatcouldstillleavethestateRUB1trillion
shorttoclosethebudgetdeficit.

Themostlikelyscenariofor2016isthattheKremlinrunsdownitsreservesandletsmorerubledevaluationtaketherestofthestrain.
Despiteallitsproblems,Russiaisstillrunningatradeandcurrentaccountsurpluswiththelatterbringinginaprofitofabout$60bnin
hardcurrencyin2015.Asthegovernmenthassignificantrevenuesindollarsbutexpendituresinunadjustedrubles,lettingthevalueofthe
rubleslideabsorbsmuchoftheoilpriceshock.Analystsestimatetherublewillend2016ataboutRUB80-85tothedollarfromthe
currentRUB70,butifoilpricescontinuetofallthenRUB100isnotimpossible.

Gazeta.ru(http://www.gazeta.ru/business/2016/01/08/8003351.shtml)reportstalkof$20/barrel,whilesomeexpertsareeven
saying$15/barrelispossibleOilplummetingto$25or$15/barrelwouldcausealotofshocksintheRussianeconomy
currencyincomewouldfall,aswouldtherubleexchangerateimportswouldgrowmoreexpensiveinflationrateswouldincrease
andtheCentralBankwouldrespondwithhigherinterestratestheFinanceMinistrywouldcutexpendituresandinvestment
wouldfallrealincomeswoulddeclinefurtheraswouldconsumerdemandalongwithit.At$15-$25/barrel,therublewould
inevitablyfalltoR100/dollar.

Nevertheless,therecouldbeseriousfluctuationsofoilpriceswarintheMiddleEastandNorthAfricamightmeanbombedoil
pipelinesandports,sunkentankersandmoresooilat$100/barrelagainisnotimpossible.ButwhatRussianeedsmostofallis
stableoilprices,pricesthatwillstabilizeinflationandtherubleexchangerate

Chayka:TheProsecutorsofficewillnotWeakenitsgrip

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russian-prosecutor-generals-office-wont-weaken-grip-after-navalnys-
film/555555.html

Russia'sProsecutorGeneralYuryChaikagaveaninterviewtothestate-runRossiiskayaGazetanewspaperTuesdayand
saidhisofficewouldn'tweakenitsgripbecauseofinformationattacksonit,referringtotheinvestigativefilmreleased
byAlexeiNavalny'sAnti-CorruptionFoundation(FBK),thatallegedChaika'sfamilywasinvolvedinvariousillegalactivities.

ThosewhoaremakingtheseinformationattackshopethattheProsecutorGeneral'sOfficewillweakenitsgripIt
won't.Wewillnotchangetheprioritiesofourwork,nomatterwhotriestoforceustodoit,hesaid.

Chaikaaddedthattheofficeiscurrentlybattlingthosewhoaretryingtoelicitlegalchaosinthecountry.Trustme,we
havetheleveragetofaceanychallenges,hesaid.

AfterFBKreleasedtheChaikafilm,theProsecutorGeneralclaimedthatBritish-AmericaninvestorBillBrowderandthe
U.S.secretserviceswerebehindthefilmandsaidoppositionleaderNavalnyplayedahumbleroleinthisstory.Seethe
14and18Decembernotes.

NavalnyhasfiledseverallawsuitsindifferentMoscowcourts,accusingChaikaofdefamation,buttonoavailsofarall
ofthecourtshavedeclinedtoprocessthesuits.

HeresalinktotheChaykainterviewwithRosGaz:http://www.rg.ru/2016/01/12/chajka.htmlChaykagoesonaboutthefight
againstcorruptionhowmanycases,casesagainstofficials,includinggovernors,Russiaseffortstotakepartininternationalanti-
corruptionagreementsandsoon.Healsotalksaboutcombattingterrorism,includingshuttingdownterrorism-connectedweb
sites.Inspiteofsanctions,theProsecutorsofficecontinuestotakepartininternationalcooperativeefforts.Thereareproblems,
barrierstoovercome,butRussiaremainsatwork,tryingtoreturnmoneymadethroughcriminalmeansandshippedoverseas.

HeresthepartonaninformationattackandnotweakeningthegripoftheProsecutorsofficereferredtoabove:

,
?,-?
 :,,,
"",..
,.,,
,.

,
,.,
.

TheresmorestuffonclosingdownforeignNGOs,nothingnewOnNavalniyslawsuits:

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/moscow-court-refuses-navalnys-chaika-lawsuit/555570.htmlMoscow's
PresnenskydistrictcourthasdeclinedtoprocessRussianoppositionleaderAlexeiNavalny'slawsuitagainstProsecutor
GeneralYuryChaikaandtheopposition-leaningEchoMoskvyradiostation,theRBCnewsagencyreportedTuesday,
citingcourtspokespersonNinaYurkova.

ThislawsuitisoneofmanyattemptsthatNavalnyhasmadetosueChaikafordefamationlastyearfiveMoscow
districtcourtsrefusedtoregisterhislawsuits,givingvariousreasonsfortheirrefusals.

OnDec.1,Navalny'sAnti-CorruptionFoundationreleasedChaika,aninvestigativefilmthataccusedChaika'sfamily
members,includinghistwosons,ofbeinginvolvedinshadybusinessdealsandvariousillegalactivities.

TwoweekslaterChaikaaccusedaBritish-AmericaninvestorWilliamBrowderandtheU.S.secretservicesofbeing
behindthefilmandclaimedNavalnyplayedahumbleroleinthisstory.

Ihavenodoubtthatthisfull-of-liesfilmwasorderedbyBillBrowder[headoftheHermitageCapitalinvestmentfund],and
secretservicesbehindhim,ChaikawasquotedassayinginaletterpublishedbytheKommersantnewspaperonDec.
14.

AfterthreeMoscowcourtsdeclinedtoprocessNavalny'ssuits,hedecidedtosuemediaoutletsthathadpublished
Chaika'slettertheKommersantandVedomostinewspapers,theEkhoMoskvyradiostation,theSlonnewswebsite,
theRBCnewsagencyandtheDozhdTVchannelalongwiththeProsecutorGeneral,inordertohavethesuits
processedbycourts.

Iapologizetotherespectableoutletsinadvancefortheinconvenience,unfortunately,wehavetomakethemofficialco-
defendants[inthesesuits]inorderforourcourtstofinallyacceptthesuits,NavalnywroteonhisblogonDec.29.

SoloveysaysUkraineisrightnottobuyRussiangas

ItsabuyersmarketandUkrainecangetgascheaperinEurope:http://vk.com/id244477574?w=wall244477574_14227%2Fall

 From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 01/11/201611:06:01PM
To: RobertOtto<acrotto@us-state.osis.gov>
BCc: swallen@1scom.net
Subject: bneIntelliNews-WillRussiarunoutofmoneywith$30oil?

http://www.intellinews.com/will-russia-run-out-of-money-with-30-oil-88243/?
inf_contact_key=149d10ee35e3e57684e07b3a2644ab51618c5a53a58fe417f3dfafa673d39830

bneIntelliNews-WillRussiarunoutofmoney
with$30oil?
OilpricescrashedagaininthefirstweekofJanuary,fallingtoan11-yearlowofabout$32perbarrel.TheRussianfederal
budgetwasalreadygoingtostruggleundertheofficial$50oilpriceassumption,andfinishthisyearwithaforecast3%
deficit.Butifoilpricesstaythislow,won'tRussia'sbudgetballoonandburnupalltheKremlin'slaudedreservefundsinthe
process?

TheWorldBankreiteratedits0.7%contractionofGDPin2016onJanuary9aseconomicblackcloudsrapidlygatheredin
thefirstweekoftheNewYear.ThatstandsagainsttheRussianMinistryofFinance'sofficialforecastof0.7%growth,if
averageoilpricescomeinat$50attheendofthisyear.

"Theglobaleconomywillneedtoadapttoanewperiodofmoremodestgrowthinlargeemergingmarkets,characterized
bylowercommoditypricesanddiminishedflowsoftradeandcapital,"WorldBankSeniorVicePresidentandChief
EconomistKaushikBasusaidinareporttitled"GlobalEconomicProspectsin2016:SpilloversamidWeakGrowth."

Withtherenewedtumbleinoilpricesthatassumptionofoilat$50islookingshakierthanever.Ifoilfallstoanaverageof
$40theneventheMinistryofFinancedoesn'texpectanyeconomicgrowththisyear,butacontractionof1.5%instead.
Andifoilfallstoanaverageof$30thecontractionwouldbe2.4%,accordingtoanalystsatBankofAmericaMerrillLynch,
whichisinthemiddleoftherangeformostinvestmentbanks'predictions.

Allsaidanddone,a1-3%economiccontractionwouldbeunpleasantbutmanageableasRussianshavebuiltupalarge
incomebufferovertheyearsaswageswererunningwellaheadofinflationformostofthelastdecadeandcorporateshave
amassedtheirownwarchestsofcash.Themoredifficultproblemwillbefinancingthefederalbudgetdeficit.

The2016budgetassumesadeficitof3%ofGDP,orRUB1.7trillion($28.32bn),alevelthatPresidentVladimirPutinhas
declareda"redline".However,thistargetwillalmostcertainlybemissedevenifoildoesaverage$50,asthestatewillhave
tobailoutitsdefactodevelopmentbankVEB,whichneedsaRUB1.2trillion($20bn)injectionoffreshcapitaltodealwith
badloansincurredfromcaseslikeunderwritinginvestmentsfortheSochiOlympics.

AndevencountingVEB'sbail-out(thegovernmentisstilltryingtofindawaytogiveitmoneythatwon'tcomeoutofthe
publicpurse)theMinistryofFinancehasalreadywarnedthatthecurrentbudgetassumptionwith$50oilmaybetoo
optimistic:accordingFinanceMinisterAntonSiluanov'scalculations,revenuescouldbeRUB750bnlessthantheforecastin
thecurrentofficialbudget,whichwouldleadtoadeficitof4.1%ofGDP.

Anditallgetsworseastheaverageoilpricein2016sinks:withoilat$40thedeficitbecomes5.2%(againwithoutcounting
intheVEBcost),orarevenueshortfallofRUB4.1trillion.

Wheresthecash?

SoitlooksverylikelythatthegovernmentwillhavetofindbetweenRUB1.7trillionandRUB4.1trilliontofundthedeficit
(andaddRUB1.2trillionforVEBandifpossiblyanotherRUB2.5trillionifthestategivesthesamesupporttothebanking
sectorifgavein2015).

Whereisthismoneygoingtocomefrom?Thestateisreluctanttoborrowathomeduetohighinterestrates(thebudget
hasRUB300bnofborrowingagainsttheRUB1trillionin"normal"years)andcan'tborrowinternationallythankstothe
West'sfinancialsanctions(thebudgetassumes$1.5bnofinternationalborrowing,presumablyfromtheChinese).

Theonlyresourceleftarethetworeservefunds:theReserveFundthatisspecificallymeantforpluggingbudgetdeficitsin
hardtimesandtheNationalWelfareFundthatisearmarkedforpensionpaymentsinthefuture.

Attheendof2015,thefundsheldRUB3.4trillionandRUB4.6trillionrespectively.Thestatehasalreadysaiditwillspendat
leastRUB2.5trillionfromtheReserveFundtosupplementthe2016budgetspending,whichleavesareserveofRUB1.1
trillion.ButSiluanovalreadyadmittedinDecemberthatheexpectstheReserveFundtobefullyexhaustedbytheendof
2016.

Ifoilends2016at$50thenthestatewillscrapethroughtheyearwithRUB1trillioninreserve,butifoilfallsto$40then
therewillstillbeatleastaRUB2trillionshortfall(notcountingtheextracosts).ThetemptationtotaptheNationalWelfare
Fundwillalmostcertainlybecomeoverwhelmingandatleasthalfofthatfund,ifnotallofit,couldbeburntuptoo.The
bottomlineisRussiacangetthrough2016evenwithoilat$40withtheresourcesithasinhandbutitwouldgointo2017
flyingonfumes.

AusterityRussianstyle

Thefinancialheadachesthegovernmentisfacingaremademuchworsebythepoliticalcalendar.Thereareparliamentary
electionsslatedforthisautumnandcrucialpresidentialelectionsin2018wherePutincanstandforthelasttime(underthe
rulesofthecurrentconstitution).Ifanythingthegovernmentwillwanttoincreasespending,notcutit.

Butthatwillbehard.Russia'sregionsarealreadyunderpressuretoupspendingaspartofthe2012'Maydecrees'.But
unlikethecentretheydon'thavebucketsofpetrodollarrevenuesfloodingintotheircoffersandarealreadyundersevere
financialpressure,whichcouldcometoaheadin2018accordingtointernationalratingsagencyStandard&Poor's(S&P).

Socialspendingalreadyaccountsforaquarter(27.6%)ofexpenditure,whichsofarhaslargelyremaineduntouchedas
muchofthisgoestothebluecollarworkersthatarePutin'scoreconstituents.Thegovernmentcouldmakeentitlements
moredifficulttoget,butthatwouldrepresentabigpoliticalriskandtestexactlyhowfragilePutin'ssky-highpopularity
reallyis,assomehavesuggested.

Pensionersweretherecipientsofsignificantbudgetlargessinthe2012elections,butthistimeroundtheyhavealreadybeen
sacrificedafterindexrateforpensionhikeswerecutto4%,waybelowinflation.

Cuttingmilitaryspendingisthemostobviousandleastpainfulcutthestatewillmakeandwillalmostcertainlynothappen.
Indeed,duringthebudgetdebatestheMinistryofFinancepushedhardtocurtainmilitaryspendingandwaspromptly
slappeddown.

Putinhasmadeitcrystalclearthatthemodernisationofthearmedforcesissacrosanctandiswillingtolaytheeconomyon
thesacrificialaltertohisgeopoliticalgoalswhateverthosemaybe.Athirdofbudgetexpenditure(32%)willgotothe
militarywithveryfewcuts(and$1.2bnfortheSyriacampaign).

Increasinglythegovernmentseemstobegraspingatstrawstofillthegap.InDecember,Siluanovannouncedanambitious
RUB1trillionprivatisationprogrammefor2016withsomebigsexynamesonthemootedlist,includingstakesinoilmajor
Rosneft,shippinggiantSovkomflotandoilminorRosen.DeputyFinanceMinisterAlexeiMoisseevtoldinvestorsinLondon
thatSovkomflotwillbesold"comewhatmay".Buttheprivatisationplanisexactlythesameonethatwasfloatedinthe
summerof2008attheendoftheboomyears,whichcametonothingthenbeforetheglobalcrisisbroke.Evenifthe
privatisationtargetwashit,thatcouldstillleavethestateRUB1trillionshorttoclosethebudgetdeficit.

Themostlikelyscenariofor2016isthattheKremlinrunsdownitsreservesandletsmorerubledevaluationtaketherestof
thestrain.Despiteallitsproblems,Russiaisstillrunningatradeandcurrentaccountsurpluswiththelatterbringingina
profitofabout$60bninhardcurrencyin2015.Asthegovernmenthassignificantrevenuesindollarsbutexpendituresin
unadjustedrubles,lettingthevalueoftherubleslideabsorbsmuchoftheoilpriceshock.Analystsestimatetherublewill
end2016ataboutRUB80-85tothedollarfromthecurrentRUB70,butifoilpricescontinuetofallthenRUB100isnot
impossible.
IN12Jan16.docx

Internet Notes 12 January 2016

Commentaries on Putins Bild interview .................................................................................... 1
Moskovskiy Komsomolets says that the Kremlin.ru web site altered the text of the Bild interview.......... 3
Part II of Putins Bild interview (Russia a regional power?; Russia and the G-8; Russia-NATO;
Russia-Turkey/Su-24; Russias air campaign in Syria; On Assad; a Libya scenario in Syria?;
Constitutional reform and early elections in Syria; Assads fate; ISIS; Saudi Arabia-Iran) ................... 4
Will Russia run out of money with $30/barrel oil? (R100/dollar?) ........................................ 11
Chayka: The Prosecutors office will not Weaken its grip ................................................. 14
Solovey says Ukraine is right not to buy Russian gas .............................................................. 16

Commentaries on Putins Bild interview

See yesterdays notes

An interview with the INDEM foundations Georgiy Satarov:

http://ru.krymr.com/content/article/27481403.html

At first, Satarov says he cant figure what the point of the interview wasLater, he says the
interview was, of course, meant for an external audience, not for the Russian domestic audience,
but VVPs comments about the annexation of Crimea (that the parliament was legally elected
and voted to hold a referendum) set a landmine under Russia, one that could explode at some
point, since logically, any component part of the Russian Federation could do the same. Putin is
reproducing the kind of conditions that brought on the collapse of the USSR. So, his words were
not meant for a domestic audience. If they were, then his words amount to a provocation. Its
obvious, though, that his comments indicated a way that would not lead to the unification of
Europe, but to its division. When Putin mentioned what mistakes Russia had madenot
asserting national interestshe was talking about mistakes made in 1990. But Russia had its
own domestic problems to deal with. The formulation of foreign policy at the time was openness
to joining, first of all, European structures. What about Putins saying that low oil prices and
sanctions would help revitalize the Russian economy? Well, if high oil prices represented a
threat to the economy, then why wasnt that acknowledged ten years ago? What the hell was he
doing for all those years? And if he recognizes that now, its too late

Vedomostis take:
http://www.vedomosti.ru/opinion/articles/2016/01/12/623631-putin-nachat-nulya

Vedomosti says the interview was another signal to the WestRussia wants peace. The West
has to acknowledge the injustice of its approach to Russia and remove sanctions, which were a
mistake (but dont really have too much influence on the Russian economy, according to VVP).
IN12Jan16.docx

Putin wants to start with a clean slate, to forget recent disagreements. After all, everyone is
guilty, though Russia least of all. Both VVPs address to the Federal Assembly and his year-end
press conference were devoted more than previously to foreign policy issues
Putin may have said that sanctions and low oil prices could end up helping Russias economy,
but its likely that vlast recognizes that low oil prices create a more serious situation for the
economy that officials let on earlier. Russia has not succeeded in getting support in Asia.
The Kremlin wants to reach agreement with the West on easing sanctions and new principles of
cooperation while the economic and political situation is still not critical, says politilog Nikolay
Petrov. Putin is hinting that Russias appetites are less than those of the Stalin-era or Brezhnev-
era USSR and that a new Yalta will suit everyone.Vedomosti concludes that the West will
not go for a division of the world, but dialogue with Putin will continue

Nezavisimaya GazetaRussia sees itself surrounded by enemies:

http://www.ng.ru/editorial/2016-01-12/2_red.html

Thats what the interview showedthis as Putin just recently (before the New Year) approved a
new national security strategy, one that stresses building up defense and national accord, raising
living standards and the economys competitiveness, as well as securing for Russia status as one
of the worlds leading great powersThe previous national strategy was adopted under
Medvedev in 2009 and was supposed to be in effect to 2020. The fact that a new strategy was
formulated indicates that the Kremlin sees the security situation changingthere are new threats
and that means there must be a new approach.
In the 40 pages of the national strategy document, there are 17 points related to defense
capability and security; 12 to economics; 7 to culture; 5 to living standards and health care; 4 on
education, ecology, and science; and 20 points touching on strategic stability and Russias
relations with the outside world.
If earlier, the emphasis was cooperation with the G-8 (Russian participation was suspended after
the annexation of Crimea), the new document stresses relations with BRICS, RIK (Russia-India-
China), the Shanghai organization, the Asia-Pacific Economic Community, and the G-20, as well
as with CIS countries, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and the creation of a non-block mechanism
for stability in the Asia-Pacific region. These aims were not mentioned in the previous strategy
document.
Basic threats to Russian security include Ukraine (an area of instability on Russias borders),
instability caused in part by EU and US support for a state coup in Kiev
The new strategy document is the most anti-Western of any adopted since 1997. NATO and the
EU are slammed for not providing for European security (the migrant crisis), the rise of ISIS
connected with double standards on terrorismBut despite all this and the anti-missile system,
IN12Jan16.docx

too, the document says that Moscow does not intend to give up on full-fledged partnership
with Washington.
The tone of the new document is more defensive-aggressive than past national strategies. It
dies not rule out using military force if other means are not successful
Moskovskiy Komsomolets says that the Kremlin.ru web site altered the text of the Bild interview
http://www.mk.ru/politics/2016/01/12/kreml-otredaktiroval-intervyu-putina-bild-lishiv-ego-ostrykh-
voprosov.html

MK compares the German to the Russian version on the Kremlin.ru web site and concludes that
in the German, the questions Bild formulated were sharper in tone than the complimentary
tone of the Russian version. An example is given from the first exchangethe kremlin.ru
version had the Bild question on the end of the Cold War and all the problems that followed
ending with What did we do wrong? But the German shows no indication that the German
journalist had the Europeans as doing anything wrong. The journalist ended by commenting on
how bad mutual relations were even after the Cold War:

, , ,
.

: 25-
.
, .
?.
:

?

When Putin was asked about the Crimea, he replied What do you mean by Crimea?, and the
Russian of the journalists reply to Putin was a change of borders. The German was more
expansivethe journalist mentioned a unilateral change of borders and that respect for
national borders was what the European system was based on:

? ,
: ,
.

In the segment on fulfilling the Minsk agreements, kremlin.ru left out the comment from Bild
that shots were still being fired in Eastern Ukraine, shots fired by the forces of the central
government and separatists supported by Russia:
,
.
IN12Jan16.docx

In the second part of the interview (See below), the kremlin.ru site left out a comment about
Russian membership in the G-8 being suspendedthe European community had practically
placed Russia outside the law:
.

The Russian version had a question to Putin about whether Putin was prepared to take steps to
make the G-7 a G-8 again:
,
?

The German had Bild commenting that Assad had killed thousands, something that was
indisputable. The Russian was milderAssad had delivered blows against his own population:

There are other examples given of alterations from German to Russian, but MK ends by saying
just which is the closest is hard to determine, since the Bild web site has a video in which only
Putins answers are shown
Comment: With the give and take between Putin and the Bild journalists, that seems like a
confusing way to present the video.

Part II of Putins Bild interview (Russia a regional power?; Russia and the G-8; Russia-NATO;
Russia-Turkey/Su-24; Russias air campaign in Syria; On Assad; a Libya scenario in Syria?;
Constitutional reform and early elections in Syria; Assads fate; ISIS; Saudi Arabia-Iran)
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51155

Question: Mr President, will you take any steps to re-establish the G7 format
as the G8?
And another question: what did you think when the US President said that Russia
is a regional power?

Vladimir Putin: I did not think anything in particular. Every individual, all the more
so the President of the United States, is entitled to his or her own opinion
on anything, on partners and on other countries. That is his own opinion,
as I also know his opinion that the American nation, the United States is unique.
I cannot agree with either of those opinions.
IN12Jan16.docx

Let me clarify a few things about Russia. First, we do not claim the role
of a superpower. This role is very costly and it is meaningless. Our economy is
fifth or sixth in the world in terms of volume. It may have moved down to a lower
place at present taking into account the economic difficulties I have mentioned
but we are confident that we have very good development prospects
and potential. We occupy, roughly, the sixth place in the world in terms
of purchasing power parity.
If we say that Russia is a regional power, we should first determine what region
we are referring to. Look at the map and ask: What is it, is it part of Europe?
Or is it part of the eastern region, bordering on Japan and the United States, if
we mean Alaska and China? Or is it part of Asia? Or perhaps the southern
region? Or look at the north. Essentially, in the north we border on Canada
across the Arctic Ocean. Or in the south? Where is it? What region are we
speaking about? I think that speculations about other countries, an attempt
to speak disrespectfully about other countries is an attempt to prove ones
exceptionalism by contrast. In my view, that is a misguided position.

Question: And what about the G8?

Vladimir Putin: We planned to host the G8 summit in 2014. I think Russia never
became a full-fledged G8 member, since there were always separate
negotiations between foreign ministers of the other seven countries. I would not
say that this mechanism is useless. Meetings, discussions, seeking solutions
together are always beneficial.
I believe that Russias presence was useful, since it provided an alternative view
on some issues under discussion. We examine pretty much the same issues
within the G20, APEC in the East and within BRICS. We were ready to host
the G8 summit in 2014. It was not us who did not go somewhere; other countries
did not come to Russia. If our counterparts decide to come for a visit, they will be
most welcome, but we have not booked any tickets yet.

Question: What do you think about the possibility of re-establishing cooperation,

if not within the G8, then, perhaps, with NATO? There was the Russia-NATO
IN12Jan16.docx

Council after all, and you conducted joint military exercises. Is there a chance
to re-establish such cooperation or should we forego the prospect altogether?

Vladimir Putin: At the outset, the idea of creating the Council was actively
supported, if not initiated, by Mr Berlusconi, the former Prime Minister of Italy,
and I believe it was in Italy that we signed the document on establishing
the Russia-NATO Council. It was not Russia that cut off cooperation through
the G8 or the Russia-NATO Council. We are willing to interact with everyone,
once there is a matter for common discussion. We think that there is one, but
a relationship can be happy only when the feeling is mutual. If we are not
welcome as partners, that is fine with us then.

Question: Regrettably, at the moment the Russia-NATO relations are

at the stage of confrontation, rather than cooperation. Turkish military forces
have downed a Russian aircraft, and Russian and Turkish warships are reported
to come dangerously close to one another all the more often. Do you think that
such developments may at a certain point cause an escalation from a cold war
to actual hostilities?

Vladimir Putin: Turkey is a NATO member. However, the problems that have
emerged have nothing to do with Turkeys NATO membership; nobody has
attacked Turkey. Instead of trying to provide us with an explanation for the war
crime they committed, that is, for downing our fighter jet that was targeting
terrorists, the Turkish government rushed to NATO headquarters seeking
protection, which looks quite odd and, in my view, humiliating for Turkey.
I repeat, NATO has to protect its members from attack, but nobody has attacked
Turkey. If Turkey has vested interests elsewhere in the world, in the adjacent
countries, does it mean that NATO must protect and secure these interests?
Does it mean that Germany, as a NATO member, must help Turkey to expand
into neighbouring territories?
I hope that such incidents will not cause large-scale hostilities. Of course, we all
realise that Russia, once under threat, would defend its security interests by all
available means at its disposal, should such threats against Russia arise.
IN12Jan16.docx

Question: Now lets turn to Syria, if you do not mind.

We say that we are tackling common challenges there. This is the joint fight
against ISIS in Iraq and Syria. However, some people in the West say that
Russian military forces in Syria are fighting the anti-Assad rebels, rather than
ISIS. What would be your response to the allegations that Russia is hitting
the wrong targets?
Vladimir Putin: They are telling lies. Look, the videos that support this version
appeared before our pilots even started to carry out strikes against terrorists.
This can be corroborated. However, those who criticise us prefer to ignore it.
American pilots hit the Doctors Without Borders hospital in Kunduz, Afghanistan,
by mistake, I am sure. There were casualties and fatalities among civilians
and doctors. Western media outlets have attempted to hush this up, to drop
the subject and have a very short memory span when it comes to such things.
They mentioned it a couple of times and put it on ice. And those few mentions
were only due to foreign citizens from the Doctors Without Borders present there.
Who now remembers the wiped out wedding parties? Over 100 people were
killed with a single strike.
Yet this phony evidence about our pilots reportedly striking civilian targets keeps
circulating. If we tag the live pipelines that consist of thousands of petrol and oil
tankers as civilian targets, than, indeed, one might believe that our pilots are
bombing these targets, but everyone is bombing them, including the Americans,
the French and everyone else.

Question: However, it is clear that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is carrying

out strikes against his own population. Can we say that al-Assad is your ally?

Vladimir Putin: You know, this is a rather subtle issue. I think that President al-
Assad has made many mistakes in the course of the Syrian conflict. However,
dont we all realise full well that this conflict would never have escalated to such
a degree if it had not been supported from abroad through supplying money,
weapons and fighters? Tragically, it is civilians who suffer in such conflicts.
IN12Jan16.docx

But who is responsible for that? Is it the government, which seeks to secure its
sovereignty and fights these anti-constitutional actions, or those who have
masterminded the anti-government insurgency?
Regarding your question if al-Assad is an ally or not and our goals in Syria. I can
tell you precisely what we do not want to happen: we do not want the Libyan
or Iraqi scenario to be repeated in Syria. I have to give due credit to Egyptian
President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, and I told him this myself, because had he not
taken on the responsibility, demonstrated fortitude and brought the country under
control, then we might have witnessed the Libyan scenario in Egypt. In my view,
no effort should be spared in strengthening legitimate governments
in the regions countries. That also applies to Syria. Emerging state institutions
in Iraq and in Libya must be revived and strengthened. Situations in Somalia
and other countries must be stabilised. State authority in Afghanistan must be
reinforced. However, it does not mean that everything should be left as is.
Indeed, this new stability would underpin political reforms.
As far as Syria is concerned, I think that we should work towards a constitutional
reform. It is a complicated process. Then, early presidential and parliamentary
elections should be held, based on the new Constitution. It is the Syrian people
themselves who must decide who and how should run their country. This is
the only way to achieve stability and security, to create conditions for economic
growth and prosperity, so that people can live in their own homes, in their
homeland, rather than flee to Europe.

Question: But do you believe al-Assad is a legitimate leader if he allows

the destruction of his countrys population?

Vladimir Putin: It is not his goal to destroy his countrys population. He is fighting
those who rose up against him with deadly force. And if the civilians suffer, I think
that the primary responsibility for this is with those who fight against him with
deadly force as well as those who assist armed groups.
As I have already said, though, this does not mean that everything is all right out
there and that everyone is right. This is exactly why I believe political reforms are
IN12Jan16.docx

needed so much there. The first step in that direction should be to develop
and adopt a new Constitution.

Question: If, contrary to expectations, al-Assad loses the elections, will you grant
him the possibility of asylum in your country?

Vladimir Putin: I think it is quite premature to discuss this. We granted asylum

to Mr Snowden, which was far more difficult than to do the same for Mr al-Assad.
First, the Syrian people should be given the opportunity to have their say.
I assure you, if this process is conducted democratically, then al-Assad will
probably not need to leave the country at all. And it is not important whether he
remains President or not.
You have been talking about our targets and means, and now you are talking
about al-Assad being our ally. Do you know that we support military operations
of the armed opposition that combats ISIS? Armed opposition against al-Assad
that is fighting ISIS. We coordinate our joint operations with them and support
their offensives by airstrikes in various sections of the frontline. This is hundreds,
thousands of armed people fighting ISIS. We support both the al-Assads army
and the armed opposition. Some of them have publicly declared this, others
prefer to remain silent, but the work is on-going.

Question: Finally, I would like to touch upon a topic that has never come up
before, that is the rift between Saudi Arabia and Iran, as if Syria was not enough.
Does it mean that this rift can lead us to a very grave conflict?

Vladimir Putin: It hampers the efforts to settle the Syrian crisis and the fight
against terrorism, as well as the process of halting the inflow if refugees
to Europe, that much is certain.
As for whether this will lead to a major regional clash, I do not know. I would
rather not talk or even think in these terms. We have very good relations with Iran
and our partnership with Saudi Arabia is stable.
Of course, we regret that these things happened there. But you have no death
penalty in your country. Despite a very hard period in the 1990searly 2000s,
IN12Jan16.docx

when we were fighting terrorism in Russia, we abolished the death penalty.

And there is no death penalty in Russia at present. There are certain countries
that use the death penalty Saudi Arabia, the United States and some others.
We regret this has happened, especially given that the cleric had not been
fighting against Saudi Arabia with lethal force. Yet it is true that an embassy
attack is a totally unacceptable occurrence in the modern world. As far as I know,
the Iranian authorities have arrested several perpetrators of the assault. If our
participation in any form is needed, we are ready to do everything possible
to resolve the conflict as soon as possible.

Question: One last question, Mr President.

During the preparations for the Winter Olympics in Sochi, there was heavy
criticism in the West of democratic development and human rights situation
in Russia. Do you expect similar criticism to arise again during the preparations
for the 2018 FIFA World Cup?
I think the Russian language is more extensive than German. (Noting the long
translation of the question from German into Russian.)
Vladimir Putin: I would say the German language is more precise.
The Russian language is more diverse, more elegant. However, such genius
minds as, say, Goethe make the German language sound very elegant
and beautiful. One can feel its beauty only in German, and to be able to feel it
one needs to understand it.
As far as democracy is concerned, the ruling classes usually talk about freedom
to pull the wool over the eyes of those whom they govern. There is nothing new
about democracy in Russia. As we have already identified, democracy is the rule
of the people and the influence of the people over the authorities. We have
learned very well the lesson of one-party rule that of the Communist Party
(CPSU). Therefore, we made our choice long ago and we will continue
developing democratic institutions in our country. At present, 77 political parties
can take part in parliamentary elections in Russia. We have come back to direct
gubernatorial elections.
We are advancing the instruments of direct democracy, meaning various public
organisations, and will continue to do so. There can be no identical clichs
IN12Jan16.docx

in democracy be it American, European (German), Russian or Indian. Do you

know that twice in American history the President was elected by the majority
of delegates representing the minority of voters? Does it mean the absence
of democracy? Of course not. But it is not the only or the most important
problem. One of the European leaders once told me: In the United States it is
impossible to run for presidency without a few billion dollars in your pocket.
Now, regarding the parliamentary system of democracy.
I am repeatedly asked: How long have you been President? But
in a parliamentary democracy, the person number one is the Prime Minister, who
can Head the Government an unlimited number of times.
We have returned to direct elections of regional heads. In some countries,
however, heads of regions are appointed by the central government. I am not
sure, I may be wrong, it is probably better to leave it out or to double-check it,
but, as far as I know, that is the case in India.
We still have a number of problems to solve before people feel confident that
they have real influence over the authorities and that the authorities respond
to their demands. We are going to work towards improving our instruments.
As for the attempts to use sport in political rifts and political competition, I believe
that is a huge mistake. That is what stupid people do. If problems arise,
particularly at the interstate level, sport, art, music, ballet and opera are the very
means that should bring people closer together rather than divide them. It is vital
to foster this role of art and sport rather than belittle and suppress it.

Question: Thank you, Mr President, for a wonderful and very detailed

conversation.

Comment: The MK piece above had the German as simply Thanks for the interview.

Will Russia run out of money with $30/barrel oil? (R100/dollar?)

See yesterdays notes for a bit on still falling oil prices.

http://www.intellinews.com/will-russia-run-out-of-money-with-30-oil-
88243/?inf_contact_key=149d10ee35e3e57684e07b3a2644ab51618c5a53a58fe417f3dfafa673d39830
IN12Jan16.docx

Oil prices crashed again in the first week of January, falling to an 11-year low of about $32 per barrel. The
Russian federal budget was already going to struggle under the official $50 oil price assumption, and finish
this year with a forecast 3% deficit. But if oil prices stay this low, won't Russia's budget balloon and burn up
all the Kremlin's lauded reserve funds in the process?

The World Bank reiterated its 0.7% contraction of GDP in 2016 on January 9 as economic black clouds rapidly
gathered in the first week of the New Year. That stands against the Russian Ministry of Finance's official
forecast of 0.7% growth, if average oil prices come in at $50 at the end of this year.

"The global economy will need to adapt to a new period of more modest growth in large emerging markets,
characterized by lower commodity prices and diminished flows of trade and capital," World Bank Senior Vice
President and Chief Economist Kaushik Basu said in a report titled "Global Economic Prospects in 2016:
Spillovers amid Weak Growth."

With the renewed tumble in oil prices that assumption of oil at $50 is looking shakier than ever. If oil falls to
an average of $40 then even the Ministry of Finance doesn't expect any economic growth this year, but a
contraction of 1.5% instead. And if oil falls to an average of $30 the contraction would be 2.4%, according to
analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, which is in the middle of the range for most investment banks'
predictions.

All said and done, a 1-3% economic contraction would be unpleasant but manageable as Russians have built
up a large income buffer over the years as wages were running well ahead of inflation for most of the last
decade and corporates have amassed their own war chests of cash. The more difficult problem will be
financing the federal budget deficit.

The 2016 budget assumes a deficit of 3% of GDP, or RUB1.7 trillion ($28.32bn), a level that President Vladimir
Putin has declared a "red line". However, this target will almost certainly be missed even if oil does average
$50, as the state will have to bail out its de facto development bank VEB, which needs a RUB1.2 trillion
($20bn) injection of fresh capital to deal with bad loans incurred from cases like underwriting investments for
the Sochi Olympics.

And even counting VEB's bail-out (the government is still trying to find a way to give it money that won't
come out of the public purse) the Ministry of Finance has already warned that the current budget assumption
with $50 oil may be too optimistic: according Finance Minister Anton Siluanov's calculations, revenues could
be RUB750bn less than the forecast in the current official budget, which would lead to a deficit of 4.1% of
GDP.

And it all gets worse as the average oil price in 2016 sinks: with oil at $40 the deficit becomes 5.2% (again
without counting in the VEB cost), or a revenue shortfall of RUB4.1 trillion.

Wheres the cash?

So it looks very likely that the government will have to find between RUB1.7 trillion and RUB4.1 trillion to
fund the deficit (and add RUB1.2 trillion for VEB and if possibly another RUB2.5 trillion if the state gives the
same support to the banking sector if gave in 2015).
IN12Jan16.docx

Where is this money going to come from? The state is reluctant to borrow at home due to high interest rates
(the budget has RUB300bn of borrowing against the RUB 1 trillion in "normal" years) and can't borrow
internationally thanks to the West's financial sanctions (the budget assumes $1.5bn of international
borrowing, presumably from the Chinese).

The only resource left are the two reserve funds: the Reserve Fund that is specifically meant for plugging
budget deficits in hard times; and the National Welfare Fund that is earmarked for pension payments in the
future.

At the end of 2015, the funds held RUB3.4 trillion and RUB4.6 trillion respectively. The state has already said
it will spend at least RUB2.5 trillion from the Reserve Fund to supplement the 2016 budget spending, which
leaves a reserve of RUB1.1 trillion. But Siluanov already admitted in December that he expects the Reserve
Fund to be fully exhausted by the end of 2016.

If oil ends 2016 at $50 then the state will scrape through the year with RUB1 trillion in reserve, but if oil falls
to $40 then there will still be at least a RUB2 trillion short fall (not counting the extra costs). The temptation
to tap the National Welfare Fund will almost certainly become overwhelming and at least half of that fund, if
not all of it, could be burnt up too. The bottom line is Russia can get through 2016 even with oil at $40 with
the resources it has in hand but it would go into 2017 flying on fumes.

Austerity Russian style

The financial headaches the government is facing are made much worse by the political calendar. There are
parliamentary elections slated for this autumn and crucial presidential elections in 2018 where Putin can
stand for the last time (under the rules of the current constitution). If anything the government will want to
increase spending, not cut it.

But that will be hard. Russia's regions are already under pressure to up spending as part of the 2012 'May
decrees'. But unlike the centre they don't have buckets of petrodollar revenues flooding into their coffers and
are already under severe financial pressure, which could come to a head in 2018 according to international
ratings agency Standard & Poor's (S&P).

Social spending already accounts for a quarter (27.6%) of expenditure, which so far has largely remained
untouched as much of this goes to the blue collar workers that are Putin's core constituents. The government
could make entitlements more difficult to get, but that would represent a big political risk and test exactly
how fragile Putin's sky-high popularity really is, as some have suggested.

Pensioners were the recipients of significant budget largess in the 2012 elections, but this time round they
have already been sacrificed after index rate for pension hikes were cut to 4%, way below inflation.

Cutting military spending is the most obvious and least painful cut the state will make and will almost
certainly not happen. Indeed, during the budget debates the Ministry of Finance pushed hard to curtain
military spending and was promptly slapped down.
IN12Jan16.docx

Putin has made it crystal clear that the modernisation of the armed forces is sacrosanct and is willing to lay
the economy on the sacrificial alter to his geopolitical goals whatever those may be. A third of budget
expenditure (32%) will go to the military with very few cuts (and $1.2bn for the Syria campaign).

Increasingly the government seems to be grasping at straws to fill the gap. In December, Siluanov announced
an ambitious RUB1 trillion privatisation programme for 2016 with some big sexy names on the mooted list,
including stakes in oil major Rosneft, shipping giant Sovkomflot and oil minor Rosen. Deputy Finance Minister
Alexei Moisseev told investors in London that Sovkomflot will be sold "come what may". But the privatisation
plan is exactly the same one that was floated in the summer of 2008 at the end of the boom years, which
came to nothing then before the global crisis broke. Even if the privatisation target was hit, that could still
leave the state RUB1 trillion short to close the budget deficit.

The most likely scenario for 2016 is that the Kremlin runs down its reserves and lets more ruble devaluation
take the rest of the strain. Despite all its problems, Russia is still running a trade and current account surplus
with the latter bringing in a profit of about $60bn in hard currency in 2015. As the government has significant
revenues in dollars but expenditures in unadjusted rubles, letting the value of the ruble slide absorbs much of
the oil price shock. Analysts estimate the ruble will end 2016 at about RUB80-85 to the dollar from the
current RUB70, but if oil prices continue to fall then RUB100 is not impossible.

Gazeta.ru (http://www.gazeta.ru/business/2016/01/08/8003351.shtml) reports talk of $20/barrel,

while some experts are even saying $15/barrel is possibleOil plummeting to $25 or $15/barrel
would cause a lot of shocks in the Russian economycurrency income would fall, as would the
ruble exchange rate; imports would grow more expensive; inflation rates would increaseand
the Central Bank would respond with higher interest rates; the Finance Ministry would cut
expenditures and investment would fall; real incomes would decline further as would consumer
demand along with it. At $15-$25/barrel, the ruble would inevitably fall to R100/dollar.

Nevertheless, there could be serious fluctuations of oil priceswar in the Middle East and North
Africa might mean bombed oil pipelines and ports, sunken tankers and moreso oil at
$100/barrel again is not impossible. But what Russia needs most of all is stable oil prices, prices
that will stabilize inflation and the ruble exchange rate

Chayka: The Prosecutors office will not Weaken its grip

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russian-prosecutor-generals-office-wont-weaken-
grip-after-navalnys-film/555555.html

Russia's Prosecutor General Yury Chaika gave an interview to the state-run Rossiiskaya
Gazeta newspaper Tuesday and said his office wouldn't weaken its grip because of
information attacks on it, referring to the investigative film released by Alexei Navalny's
Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK), that alleged Chaika's family was involved in various
illegal activities.
IN12Jan16.docx

Those who are making these information attacks hope that the Prosecutor General's Office
will weaken its grip It won't. We will not change the priorities of our work, no matter who
tries to force us to do it, he said.

Chaika added that the office is currently battling those who are trying to elicit legal chaos
in the country. Trust me, we have the leverage to face any challenges, he said.

After FBK released the Chaika film, the Prosecutor General claimed that British-American
investor Bill Browder and the U.S. secret services were behind the film and said opposition
leader Navalny played a humble role in this story. See the 14 and 18 December notes.

Navalny has filed several lawsuits in different Moscow courts, accusing Chaika of
defamation, but to no avail so far all of the courts have declined to process the suits.

Heres a link to the Chayka interview with Ros Gaz: http://www.rg.ru/2016/01/12/chajka.html

Chayka goes on about the fight against corruptionhow many cases, cases against officials,
including governors, Russias efforts to take part in international anti-corruption agreements and
so on. He also talks about combatting terrorism, including shutting down terrorism-connected
web sites. In spite of sanctions, the Prosecutors office continues to take part in international
cooperative efforts. There are problems, barriers to overcome, but Russia remains at work,
trying to return money made through criminal means and shipped overseas.

Heres the part on an information attack and not weakening the grip of the Prosecutors
office referred to above:

,
? ,
- ?

: , ,
, " ",
. . ,
. , ,
, .

, ,
. ,
.

Theres more stuff on closing down foreign NGOs, nothing newOn Navalniys lawsuits:
IN12Jan16.docx

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/moscow-court-refuses-navalnys-chaika-
lawsuit/555570.html Moscow's Presnensky district court has declined to process Russian
opposition leader Alexei Navalny's lawsuit against Prosecutor General Yury Chaika and the
opposition-leaning Echo Moskvy radio station, the RBC news agency reported Tuesday,
citing court spokesperson Nina Yurkova.

This lawsuit is one of many attempts that Navalny has made to sue Chaika for defamation
last year five Moscow district courts refused to register his lawsuits, giving various
reasons for their refusals.

On Dec. 1, Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation released Chaika, an investigative film

that accused Chaika's family members, including his two sons, of being involved in shady
business deals and various illegal activities.

Two weeks later Chaika accused a British-American investor William Browder and the U.S.
secret services of being behind the film and claimed Navalny played a humble role in this
story.

I have no doubt that this full-of-lies film was ordered by Bill Browder [head of the Hermitage
Capital investment fund], and secret services behind him, Chaika was quoted as saying in
a letter published by the Kommersant newspaper on Dec. 14.

After three Moscow courts declined to process Navalny's suits, he decided to sue media
outlets that had published Chaika's letter the Kommersant and Vedomosti newspapers,
the Ekho Moskvy radio station, the Slon news website, the RBC news agency and the
Dozhd TV channel along with the Prosecutor General, in order to have the suits
processed by courts.

I apologize to the respectable outlets in advance for the inconvenience, unfortunately, we

have to make them official co-defendants [in these suits] in order for our courts to finally
accept the suits, Navalny wrote on his blog on Dec. 29.

Solovey says Ukraine is right not to buy Russian gas

Its a buyers market and Ukraine can get gas cheaper in Europe:
http://vk.com/id244477574?w=wall244477574_14227%2Fall
 From: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Senttime: 01/12/201602:28:05PM
To: swallen@1scom.net
Subject: InternetNotes12January2016
Attachments: IN12Jan16.docx

InternetNotes12January2016

CommentariesonPutinsBildinterview

MoskovskiyKomsomoletssaysthattheKremlin.ruwebsitealteredthetextoftheBildinterview

PartIIofPutinsBildinterview(Russiaaregionalpower?RussiaandtheG-8Russia-NATORussia-Turkey/Su-24
RussiasaircampaigninSyriaOnAssadaLibyascenarioinSyria?Constitutionalreformandearlyelectionsin
SyriaAssadsfateISISSaudiArabia-Iran)

WillRussiarunoutofmoneywith$30/barreloil?(R100/dollar?)

Chayka:TheProsecutorsofficewillnotWeakenitsgrip

SoloveysaysUkraineisrightnottobuyRussiangas

CommentariesonPutinsBildinterview

Seeyesterdaysnotes

AninterviewwiththeINDEMfoundationsGeorgiySatarov:http://ru.krymr.com/content/article/27481403.html

Atfirst,SatarovsayshecantfigurewhatthepointoftheinterviewwasLater,hesaystheinterviewwas,ofcourse,meantforan
externalaudience,notfortheRussiandomesticaudience,butVVPscommentsabouttheannexationofCrimea(thatthe
parliamentwaslegallyelectedandvotedtoholdareferendum)setalandmineunderRussia,onethatcouldexplodeatsomepoint,
sincelogically,anycomponentpartoftheRussianFederationcoulddothesame.Putinisreproducingthekindofconditionsthat
broughtonthecollapseoftheUSSR.So,hiswordswerenotmeantforadomesticaudience.Iftheywere,thenhiswordsamount
toaprovocation.Itsobvious,though,thathiscommentsindicatedawaythatwouldnotleadtotheunificationofEurope,buttoits
division.WhenPutinmentionedwhatmistakesRussiahadmadenotassertingnationalinterestshewastalkingaboutmistakes
madein1990.ButRussiahaditsowndomesticproblemstodealwith.Theformulationofforeignpolicyatthetimewasopenness
tojoining,firstofall,Europeanstructures.WhataboutPutinssayingthatlowoilpricesandsanctionswouldhelprevitalizethe
Russianeconomy?Well,ifhighoilpricesrepresentedathreattotheeconomy,thenwhywasntthatacknowledgedtenyearsago?
Whatthehellwashedoingforallthoseyears?Andifherecognizesthatnow,itstoolate

Vedomostistake:

http://www.vedomosti.ru/opinion/articles/2016/01/12/623631-putin-nachat-nulya

VedomostisaystheinterviewwasanothersignaltotheWestRussiawantspeace.TheWesthastoacknowledgetheinjusticeof
itsapproachtoRussiaandremovesanctions,whichwereamistake(butdontreallyhavetoomuchinfluenceontheRussian
economy,accordingtoVVP).Putinwantstostartwithacleanslate,toforgetrecentdisagreements.Afterall,everyoneisguilty,
thoughRussialeastofall.BothVVPsaddresstotheFederalAssemblyandhisyear-endpressconferenceweredevotedmore
thanpreviouslytoforeignpolicyissues
PutinmayhavesaidthatsanctionsandlowoilpricescouldenduphelpingRussiaseconomy,butitslikelythatvlastrecognizes
thatlowoilpricescreateamoreserioussituationfortheeconomythatofficialsletonearlier.Russiahasnotsucceededingetting
supportinAsia.

TheKremlinwantstoreachagreementwiththeWestoneasingsanctionsandnewprinciplesofcooperationwhiletheeconomic
andpoliticalsituationisstillnotcritical,sayspolitilogNikolayPetrov.PutinishintingthatRussiasappetitesarelessthanthoseof
theStalin-eraorBrezhnev-eraUSSRandthatanewYaltawillsuiteveryone.VedomosticoncludesthattheWestwillnotgo
foradivisionoftheworld,butdialoguewithPutinwillcontinue


NezavisimayaGazetaRussiaseesitselfsurroundedbyenemies:

http://www.ng.ru/editorial/2016-01-12/2_red.html

ThatswhattheinterviewshowedthisasPutinjustrecently(beforetheNewYear)approvedanewnationalsecuritystrategy,
onethatstressesbuildingupdefenseandnationalaccord,raisinglivingstandardsandtheeconomyscompetitiveness,aswellas
securingforRussiastatusasoneoftheworldsleadinggreatpowersThepreviousnationalstrategywasadoptedunder
Medvedevin2009andwassupposedtobeineffectto2020.Thefactthatanewstrategywasformulatedindicatesthatthe
Kremlinseesthesecuritysituationchangingtherearenewthreatsandthatmeanstheremustbeanewapproach.

Inthe40pagesofthenationalstrategydocument,thereare17pointsrelatedtodefensecapabilityandsecurity12toeconomics
7toculture5tolivingstandardsandhealthcare4oneducation,ecology,andscienceand20pointstouchingonstrategic
stabilityandRussiasrelationswiththeoutsideworld.
Ifearlier,theemphasiswascooperationwiththeG-8(RussianparticipationwassuspendedaftertheannexationofCrimea),the
newdocumentstressesrelationswithBRICS,RIK(Russia-India-China),theShanghaiorganization,theAsia-PacificEconomic
Community,andtheG-20,aswellaswithCIScountries,Abkhazia,SouthOssetia,andthecreationofanon-blockmechanism
forstabilityintheAsia-Pacificregion.Theseaimswerenotmentionedinthepreviousstrategydocument.

BasicthreatstoRussiansecurityincludeUkraine(anareaofinstabilityonRussiasborders),instabilitycausedinpartbyEUand
USsupportforastatecoupinKiev

Thenewstrategydocumentisthemostanti-Westernofanyadoptedsince1997.NATOandtheEUareslammedfornot
providingforEuropeansecurity(themigrantcrisis),theriseofISISconnectedwithdoublestandardsonterrorismBut
despiteallthisandtheanti-missilesystem,too,thedocumentsaysthatMoscowdoesnotintendtogiveuponfull-fledged
partnershipwithWashington.
Thetoneofthenewdocumentismoredefensive-aggressivethanpastnationalstrategies.Itdiesnotruleoutusingmilitary
forceifothermeansarenotsuccessful

MoskovskiyKomsomoletssaysthattheKremlin.ruwebsitealteredthetextoftheBildinterview

http://www.mk.ru/politics/2016/01/12/kreml-otredaktiroval-intervyu-putina-bild-lishiv-ego-ostrykh-voprosov.html

MKcomparestheGermantotheRussianversionontheKremlin.ruwebsiteandconcludesthatintheGerman,thequestionsBild
formulatedweresharperintonethanthecomplimentarytoneoftheRussianversion.Anexampleisgivenfromthefirst
exchangethekremlin.ruversionhadtheBildquestionontheendoftheColdWarandalltheproblemsthatfollowedendingwith
Whatdidwedowrong?ButtheGermanshowsnoindicationthattheGermanjournalisthadtheEuropeansasdoinganything
wrong.ThejournalistendedbycommentingonhowbadmutualrelationswereevenaftertheColdWar:

,,,
.

:25-
.,
.?.
:
?

WhenPutinwasaskedabouttheCrimea,herepliedWhatdoyoumeanbyCrimea?,andtheRussianofthejournalistsreply
toPutinwasachangeofborders.TheGermanwasmoreexpansivethejournalistmentionedaunilateralchangeofborders
andthatrespectfornationalborderswaswhattheEuropeansystemwasbasedon:
?
,:
,.

InthesegmentonfulfillingtheMinskagreements,kremlin.ruleftoutthecommentfromBildthatshotswerestillbeingfiredin
EasternUkraine,shotsfiredbytheforcesofthecentralgovernmentandseparatistssupportedbyRussia:
,
.


Inthesecondpartoftheinterview(Seebelow),thekremlin.rusiteleftoutacommentaboutRussianmembershipintheG-8being
suspendedtheEuropeancommunityhadpracticallyplacedRussiaoutsidethelaw:
.

TheRussianversionhadaquestiontoPutinaboutwhetherPutinwaspreparedtotakestepstomaketheG-7aG-8again:
,
?

TheGermanhadBildcommentingthatAssadhadkilledthousands,somethingthatwasindisputable.TheRussianwasmilder
Assadhaddeliveredblowsagainsthisownpopulation:

ThereareotherexamplesgivenofalterationsfromGermantoRussian,butMKendsbysayingjustwhichistheclosestishardto
determine,sincetheBildwebsitehasavideoinwhichonlyPutinsanswersareshown
Comment:WiththegiveandtakebetweenPutinandtheBildjournalists,thatseemslikeaconfusingwaytopresent
thevideo.

PartIIofPutinsBildinterview(Russiaaregionalpower?RussiaandtheG-8Russia-NATORussia-Turkey/Su-24
RussiasaircampaigninSyriaOnAssadaLibyascenarioinSyria?Constitutionalreformandearlyelectionsin
SyriaAssadsfateISISSaudiArabia-Iran)

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51155

Question:MrPresident,willyoutakeanystepstore-establishtheG7formatastheG8?
Andanotherquestion:whatdidyouthinkwhentheUSPresidentsaidthatRussiaisaregionalpower?

VladimirPutin:Ididnotthinkanythinginparticular.Everyindividual,allthemoresothePresident
oftheUnitedStates,isentitledtohisorherownopiniononanything,onpartnersandonothercountries.
Thatishisownopinion,asIalsoknowhisopinionthattheAmericannation,theUnitedStatesisunique.
Icannotagreewitheitherofthoseopinions.
LetmeclarifyafewthingsaboutRussia.First,wedonotclaimtheroleofasuperpower.Thisroleisvery
costlyanditismeaningless.Oureconomyisfifthorsixthintheworldintermsofvolume.Itmayhave
moveddowntoalowerplaceatpresenttakingintoaccounttheeconomicdifficultiesIhavementionedbut
weareconfidentthatwehaveverygooddevelopmentprospectsandpotential.Weoccupy,roughly,
thesixthplaceintheworldintermsofpurchasingpowerparity.
IfwesaythatRussiaisaregionalpower,weshouldfirstdeterminewhatregionwearereferringto.Look
atthemapandask:Whatisit,isitpartofEurope?Orisitpartoftheeasternregion,borderingonJapan
andtheUnitedStates,ifwemeanAlaskaandChina?OrisitpartofAsia?Orperhapsthesouthern
region?Orlookatthenorth.Essentially,inthenorthweborderonCanadaacrosstheArcticOcean.
Orinthesouth?Whereisit?Whatregionarewespeakingabout?Ithinkthatspeculationsaboutother
countries,anattempttospeakdisrespectfullyaboutothercountriesisanattempttoproveones
exceptionalismbycontrast.Inmyview,thatisamisguidedposition.

Question:AndwhatabouttheG8?

VladimirPutin:WeplannedtohosttheG8summitin2014.IthinkRussianeverbecameafull-fledgedG8
member,sincetherewerealwaysseparatenegotiationsbetweenforeignministersoftheotherseven
countries.Iwouldnotsaythatthismechanismisuseless.Meetings,discussions,seekingsolutionstogether
arealwaysbeneficial.
IbelievethatRussiaspresencewasuseful,sinceitprovidedanalternativeviewonsomeissuesunder
discussion.WeexamineprettymuchthesameissueswithintheG20,APECintheEastandwithinBRICS.
WewerereadytohosttheG8summitin2014.Itwasnotuswhodidnotgosomewhereothercountriesdid
notcometoRussia.Ifourcounterpartsdecidetocomeforavisit,theywillbemostwelcome,butwehave
notbookedanyticketsyet.

Question:Whatdoyouthinkaboutthepossibilityofre-establishingcooperation,ifnotwithintheG8,then,
perhaps,withNATO?TherewastheRussia-NATOCouncilafterall,andyouconductedjointmilitary
exercises.Isthereachancetore-establishsuchcooperationorshouldweforegotheprospectaltogether?

VladimirPutin:Attheoutset,theideaofcreatingtheCouncilwasactivelysupported,ifnotinitiated,byMr
Berlusconi,theformerPrimeMinisterofItaly,andIbelieveitwasinItalythatwesignedthedocument
onestablishingtheRussia-NATOCouncil.ItwasnotRussiathatcutoffcooperationthroughtheG8
ortheRussia-NATOCouncil.Wearewillingtointeractwitheveryone,oncethereisamatterforcommon
discussion.Wethinkthatthereisone,butarelationshipcanbehappyonlywhenthefeelingismutual.If
wearenotwelcomeaspartners,thatisfinewithusthen.

Question:Regrettably,atthemomenttheRussia-NATOrelationsareatthestageofconfrontation,rather
thancooperation.TurkishmilitaryforceshavedownedaRussianaircraft,andRussianandTurkishwarships
arereportedtocomedangerouslyclosetooneanotherallthemoreoften.Doyouthinkthatsuch
developmentsmayatacertainpointcauseanescalationfromacoldwartoactualhostilities?

VladimirPutin:TurkeyisaNATOmember.However,theproblemsthathaveemergedhavenothingtodo
withTurkeysNATOmembershipnobodyhasattackedTurkey.Insteadoftryingtoprovideuswith
anexplanationforthewarcrimetheycommitted,thatis,fordowningourfighterjetthatwastargeting
terrorists,theTurkishgovernmentrushedtoNATOheadquartersseekingprotection,whichlooksquiteodd
and,inmyview,humiliatingforTurkey.
Irepeat,NATOhastoprotectitsmembersfromattack,butnobodyhasattackedTurkey.IfTurkeyhas
vestedinterestselsewhereintheworld,intheadjacentcountries,doesitmeanthatNATOmustprotect
andsecuretheseinterests?DoesitmeanthatGermany,asaNATOmember,musthelpTurkeytoexpand
intoneighbouringterritories?
Ihopethatsuchincidentswillnotcauselarge-scalehostilities.Ofcourse,weallrealisethatRussia,once
underthreat,woulddefenditssecurityinterestsbyallavailablemeansatitsdisposal,shouldsuchthreats
againstRussiaarise.

Question:NowletsturntoSyria,ifyoudonotmind.
Wesaythatwearetacklingcommonchallengesthere.ThisisthejointfightagainstISISinIraqandSyria.
However,somepeopleintheWestsaythatRussianmilitaryforcesinSyriaarefightingtheanti-Assad
rebels,ratherthanISIS.WhatwouldbeyourresponsetotheallegationsthatRussiaishittingthewrong
targets?
VladimirPutin:Theyaretellinglies.Look,thevideosthatsupportthisversionappearedbeforeourpilots
evenstartedtocarryoutstrikesagainstterrorists.Thiscanbecorroborated.However,thosewhocriticise
usprefertoignoreit.
AmericanpilotshittheDoctorsWithoutBordershospitalinKunduz,Afghanistan,bymistake,Iamsure.
Therewerecasualtiesandfatalitiesamongciviliansanddoctors.Westernmediaoutletshaveattempted
tohushthisup,todropthesubjectandhaveaveryshortmemoryspanwhenitcomestosuchthings.They
mentioneditacoupleoftimesandputitonice.Andthosefewmentionswereonlyduetoforeigncitizens
fromtheDoctorsWithoutBorderspresentthere.
Whonowremembersthewipedoutweddingparties?Over100peoplewerekilledwithasinglestrike.
Yetthisphonyevidenceaboutourpilotsreportedlystrikingciviliantargetskeepscirculating.Ifwetag
thelivepipelinesthatconsistofthousandsofpetrolandoiltankersasciviliantargets,than,indeed,one
mightbelievethatourpilotsarebombingthesetargets,buteveryoneisbombingthem,including
theAmericans,theFrenchandeveryoneelse.

Question:However,itisclearthatSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assadiscarryingoutstrikesagainsthisown
population.Canwesaythatal-Assadisyourally?

VladimirPutin:Youknow,thisisarathersubtleissue.IthinkthatPresidental-Assadhasmademany
mistakesinthecourseoftheSyrianconflict.However,dontweallrealisefullwellthatthisconflictwould
neverhaveescalatedtosuchadegreeifithadnotbeensupportedfromabroadthroughsupplyingmoney,
weaponsandfighters?Tragically,itiscivilianswhosufferinsuchconflicts.
Butwhoisresponsibleforthat?Isitthegovernment,whichseekstosecureitssovereigntyandfightsthese
anti-constitutionalactions,orthosewhohavemastermindedtheanti-governmentinsurgency?
Regardingyourquestionifal-AssadisanallyornotandourgoalsinSyria.Icantellyoupreciselywhatwe
donotwanttohappen:wedonotwanttheLibyanorIraqiscenariotoberepeatedinSyria.Ihavetogive
duecredittoEgyptianPresidentAbdelFattahel-Sisi,andItoldhimthismyself,becausehadhenottaken
ontheresponsibility,demonstratedfortitudeandbroughtthecountryundercontrol,thenwemighthave
witnessedtheLibyanscenarioinEgypt.Inmyview,noeffortshouldbesparedinstrengtheninglegitimate
governmentsintheregionscountries.ThatalsoappliestoSyria.EmergingstateinstitutionsinIraq
andinLibyamustberevivedandstrengthened.SituationsinSomaliaandothercountriesmustbe
stabilised.StateauthorityinAfghanistanmustbereinforced.However,itdoesnotmeanthateverything
shouldbeleftasis.Indeed,thisnewstabilitywouldunderpinpoliticalreforms.
AsfarasSyriaisconcerned,Ithinkthatweshouldworktowardsaconstitutionalreform.Itisacomplicated
process.Then,earlypresidentialandparliamentaryelectionsshouldbeheld,basedonthenew
Constitution.ItistheSyrianpeoplethemselveswhomustdecidewhoandhowshouldruntheircountry.This
istheonlywaytoachievestabilityandsecurity,tocreateconditionsforeconomicgrowthandprosperity,so
thatpeoplecanliveintheirownhomes,intheirhomeland,ratherthanfleetoEurope.

Question:Butdoyoubelieveal-Assadisalegitimateleaderifheallowsthedestructionofhiscountrys
population?

VladimirPutin:Itisnothisgoaltodestroyhiscountryspopulation.Heisfightingthosewhoroseupagainst
himwithdeadlyforce.Andifthecivilianssuffer,Ithinkthattheprimaryresponsibilityforthisiswiththose
whofightagainsthimwithdeadlyforceaswellasthosewhoassistarmedgroups.
AsIhavealreadysaid,though,thisdoesnotmeanthateverythingisallrightoutthereandthateveryoneis
right.ThisisexactlywhyIbelievepoliticalreformsareneededsomuchthere.Thefirststepinthatdirection
shouldbetodevelopandadoptanewConstitution.

Question:If,contrarytoexpectations,al-Assadlosestheelections,willyougranthimthepossibility
ofasyluminyourcountry?

VladimirPutin:Ithinkitisquiteprematuretodiscussthis.WegrantedasylumtoMrSnowden,whichwas
farmoredifficultthantodothesameforMral-Assad.
First,theSyrianpeopleshouldbegiventheopportunitytohavetheirsay.Iassureyou,ifthisprocessis
conducteddemocratically,thenal-Assadwillprobablynotneedtoleavethecountryatall.Anditisnot
importantwhetherheremainsPresidentornot.
Youhavebeentalkingaboutourtargetsandmeans,andnowyouaretalkingaboutal-Assadbeingourally.
DoyouknowthatwesupportmilitaryoperationsofthearmedoppositionthatcombatsISIS?Armed
oppositionagainstal-AssadthatisfightingISIS.Wecoordinateourjointoperationswiththemandsupport
theiroffensivesbyairstrikesinvarioussectionsofthefrontline.Thisishundreds,thousandsofarmed
peoplefightingISIS.Wesupportboththeal-Assadsarmyandthearmedopposition.Someofthemhave
publiclydeclaredthis,othersprefertoremainsilent,buttheworkison-going.

Question:Finally,Iwouldliketotouchuponatopicthathasnevercomeupbefore,thatistheriftbetween
SaudiArabiaandIran,asifSyriawasnotenough.Doesitmeanthatthisriftcanleadustoaverygrave
conflict?

VladimirPutin:IthamperstheeffortstosettletheSyriancrisisandthefightagainstterrorism,aswell
astheprocessofhaltingtheinflowifrefugeestoEurope,thatmuchiscertain.
Asforwhetherthiswillleadtoamajorregionalclash,Idonotknow.Iwouldrathernottalkoreventhink
intheseterms.WehaveverygoodrelationswithIranandourpartnershipwithSaudiArabiaisstable.
Ofcourse,weregretthatthesethingshappenedthere.Butyouhavenodeathpenaltyinyourcountry.
Despiteaveryhardperiodinthe1990searly2000s,whenwewerefightingterrorisminRussia,we
abolishedthedeathpenalty.AndthereisnodeathpenaltyinRussiaatpresent.Therearecertaincountries
thatusethedeathpenaltySaudiArabia,theUnitedStatesandsomeothers.
Weregretthishashappened,especiallygiventhattheclerichadnotbeenfightingagainstSaudiArabia
withlethalforce.Yetitistruethatanembassyattackisatotallyunacceptableoccurrenceinthemodern
world.AsfarasIknow,theIranianauthoritieshavearrestedseveralperpetratorsoftheassault.Ifour
participationinanyformisneeded,wearereadytodoeverythingpossibletoresolvetheconflictassoon
aspossible.

Question:Onelastquestion,MrPresident.
DuringthepreparationsfortheWinterOlympicsinSochi,therewasheavycriticismintheWest
ofdemocraticdevelopmentandhumanrightssituationinRussia.Doyouexpectsimilarcriticismtoarise
againduringthepreparationsforthe2018FIFAWorldCup?
IthinktheRussianlanguageismoreextensivethanGerman.(Notingthelongtranslationofthequestion
fromGermanintoRussian.)
VladimirPutin:IwouldsaytheGermanlanguageismoreprecise.
TheRussianlanguageismorediverse,moreelegant.However,suchgeniusmindsas,say,Goethemake
theGermanlanguagesoundveryelegantandbeautiful.OnecanfeelitsbeautyonlyinGerman,andtobe
abletofeelitoneneedstounderstandit.
Asfarasdemocracyisconcerned,therulingclassesusuallytalkaboutfreedomtopullthewoolover
theeyesofthosewhomtheygovern.ThereisnothingnewaboutdemocracyinRussia.Aswehavealready
identified,democracyistheruleofthepeopleandtheinfluenceofthepeopleovertheauthorities.Wehave
learnedverywellthelessonofone-partyrulethatoftheCommunistParty(CPSU).Therefore,wemade
ourchoicelongagoandwewillcontinuedevelopingdemocraticinstitutionsinourcountry.Atpresent,77
politicalpartiescantakepartinparliamentaryelectionsinRussia.Wehavecomebacktodirect
gubernatorialelections.
Weareadvancingtheinstrumentsofdirectdemocracy,meaningvariouspublicorganisations,andwill
continuetodoso.TherecanbenoidenticalclichsindemocracybeitAmerican,European(German),
RussianorIndian.DoyouknowthattwiceinAmericanhistorythePresidentwaselectedbythemajority
ofdelegatesrepresentingtheminorityofvoters?Doesitmeantheabsenceofdemocracy?Ofcoursenot.
Butitisnottheonlyorthemostimportantproblem.OneoftheEuropeanleadersoncetoldme:
IntheUnitedStatesitisimpossibletorunforpresidencywithoutafewbilliondollarsinyourpocket.
Now,regardingtheparliamentarysystemofdemocracy.
Iamrepeatedlyasked:HowlonghaveyoubeenPresident?Butinaparliamentarydemocracy,theperson
numberoneisthePrimeMinister,whocanHeadtheGovernmentanunlimitednumberoftimes.
Wehavereturnedtodirectelectionsofregionalheads.Insomecountries,however,headsofregionsare
appointedbythecentralgovernment.Iamnotsure,Imaybewrong,itisprobablybettertoleaveitout
ortodouble-checkit,but,asfarasIknow,thatisthecaseinIndia.
Westillhaveanumberofproblemstosolvebeforepeoplefeelconfidentthattheyhaverealinfluenceover
theauthoritiesandthattheauthoritiesrespondtotheirdemands.Wearegoingtoworktowardsimproving
ourinstruments.
Asfortheattemptstousesportinpoliticalriftsandpoliticalcompetition,Ibelievethatisahugemistake.
Thatiswhatstupidpeopledo.Ifproblemsarise,particularlyattheinterstatelevel,sport,art,music,ballet
andoperaaretheverymeansthatshouldbringpeopleclosertogetherratherthandividethem.Itisvital
tofosterthisroleofartandsportratherthanbelittleandsuppressit.

Question:Thankyou,MrPresident,forawonderfulandverydetailedconversation.

Comment:TheMKpieceabovehadtheGermanassimplyThanksfortheinterview.

WillRussiarunoutofmoneywith$30/barreloil?(R100/dollar?)

Seeyesterdaysnotesforabitonstillfallingoilprices.

http://www.intellinews.com/will-russia-run-out-of-money-with-30-oil-88243/?
inf_contact_key=149d10ee35e3e57684e07b3a2644ab51618c5a53a58fe417f3dfafa673d39830
OilpricescrashedagaininthefirstweekofJanuary,fallingtoan11-yearlowofabout$32perbarrel.TheRussianfederalbudgetwas
alreadygoingtostruggleundertheofficial$50oilpriceassumption,andfinishthisyearwithaforecast3%deficit.Butifoilpricesstay
thislow,won'tRussia'sbudgetballoonandburnupalltheKremlin'slaudedreservefundsintheprocess?

TheWorldBankreiteratedits0.7%contractionofGDPin2016onJanuary9aseconomicblackcloudsrapidlygatheredinthefirstweek
oftheNewYear.ThatstandsagainsttheRussianMinistryofFinance'sofficialforecastof0.7%growth,ifaverageoilpricescomeinat
$50attheendofthisyear.

"Theglobaleconomywillneedtoadapttoanewperiodofmoremodestgrowthinlargeemergingmarkets,characterizedbylower
commoditypricesanddiminishedflowsoftradeandcapital,"WorldBankSeniorVicePresidentandChiefEconomistKaushikBasusaidin
areporttitled"GlobalEconomicProspectsin2016:SpilloversamidWeakGrowth."

Withtherenewedtumbleinoilpricesthatassumptionofoilat$50islookingshakierthanever.Ifoilfallstoanaverageof$40theneven
theMinistryofFinancedoesn'texpectanyeconomicgrowththisyear,butacontractionof1.5%instead.Andifoilfallstoanaverageof
$30thecontractionwouldbe2.4%,accordingtoanalystsatBankofAmericaMerrillLynch,whichisinthemiddleoftherangeformost
investmentbanks'predictions.

Allsaidanddone,a1-3%economiccontractionwouldbeunpleasantbutmanageableasRussianshavebuiltupalargeincomebufferover
theyearsaswageswererunningwellaheadofinflationformostofthelastdecadeandcorporateshaveamassedtheirownwarchestsof
cash.Themoredifficultproblemwillbefinancingthefederalbudgetdeficit.

The2016budgetassumesadeficitof3%ofGDP,orRUB1.7trillion($28.32bn),alevelthatPresidentVladimirPutinhasdeclareda"red
line".However,thistargetwillalmostcertainlybemissedevenifoildoesaverage$50,asthestatewillhavetobailoutitsdefacto
developmentbankVEB,whichneedsaRUB1.2trillion($20bn)injectionoffreshcapitaltodealwithbadloansincurredfromcaseslike
underwritinginvestmentsfortheSochiOlympics.

AndevencountingVEB'sbail-out(thegovernmentisstilltryingtofindawaytogiveitmoneythatwon'tcomeoutofthepublicpurse)
theMinistryofFinancehasalreadywarnedthatthecurrentbudgetassumptionwith$50oilmaybetoooptimistic:accordingFinance
MinisterAntonSiluanov'scalculations,revenuescouldbeRUB750bnlessthantheforecastinthecurrentofficialbudget,whichwould
leadtoadeficitof4.1%ofGDP.

Anditallgetsworseastheaverageoilpricein2016sinks:withoilat$40thedeficitbecomes5.2%(againwithoutcountingintheVEB
cost),orarevenueshortfallofRUB4.1trillion.

Wheresthecash?

SoitlooksverylikelythatthegovernmentwillhavetofindbetweenRUB1.7trillionandRUB4.1trilliontofundthedeficit(andadd
RUB1.2trillionforVEBandifpossiblyanotherRUB2.5trillionifthestategivesthesamesupporttothebankingsectorifgavein2015).

Whereisthismoneygoingtocomefrom?Thestateisreluctanttoborrowathomeduetohighinterestrates(thebudgethasRUB300bn
ofborrowingagainsttheRUB1trillionin"normal"years)andcan'tborrowinternationallythankstotheWest'sfinancialsanctions(the
budgetassumes$1.5bnofinternationalborrowing,presumablyfromtheChinese).

Theonlyresourceleftarethetworeservefunds:theReserveFundthatisspecificallymeantforpluggingbudgetdeficitsinhardtimes
andtheNationalWelfareFundthatisearmarkedforpensionpaymentsinthefuture.

Attheendof2015,thefundsheldRUB3.4trillionandRUB4.6trillionrespectively.ThestatehasalreadysaiditwillspendatleastRUB2.5
trillionfromtheReserveFundtosupplementthe2016budgetspending,whichleavesareserveofRUB1.1trillion.ButSiluanovalready
admittedinDecemberthatheexpectstheReserveFundtobefullyexhaustedbytheendof2016.

Ifoilends2016at$50thenthestatewillscrapethroughtheyearwithRUB1trillioninreserve,butifoilfallsto$40thentherewillstillbe
atleastaRUB2trillionshortfall(notcountingtheextracosts).ThetemptationtotaptheNationalWelfareFundwillalmostcertainly
becomeoverwhelmingandatleasthalfofthatfund,ifnotallofit,couldbeburntuptoo.ThebottomlineisRussiacangetthrough2016
evenwithoilat$40withtheresourcesithasinhandbutitwouldgointo2017flyingonfumes.

AusterityRussianstyle

Thefinancialheadachesthegovernmentisfacingaremademuchworsebythepoliticalcalendar.Thereareparliamentaryelectionsslated
forthisautumnandcrucialpresidentialelectionsin2018wherePutincanstandforthelasttime(undertherulesofthecurrent
constitution).Ifanythingthegovernmentwillwanttoincreasespending,notcutit.

Butthatwillbehard.Russia'sregionsarealreadyunderpressuretoupspendingaspartofthe2012'Maydecrees'.Butunlikethecentre
theydon'thavebucketsofpetrodollarrevenuesfloodingintotheircoffersandarealreadyunderseverefinancialpressure,whichcould
cometoaheadin2018accordingtointernationalratingsagencyStandard&Poor's(S&P).

Socialspendingalreadyaccountsforaquarter(27.6%)ofexpenditure,whichsofarhaslargelyremaineduntouchedasmuchofthisgoes
tothebluecollarworkersthatarePutin'scoreconstituents.Thegovernmentcouldmakeentitlementsmoredifficulttoget,butthatwould
representabigpoliticalriskandtestexactlyhowfragilePutin'ssky-highpopularityreallyis,assomehavesuggested.

Pensionersweretherecipientsofsignificantbudgetlargessinthe2012elections,butthistimeroundtheyhavealreadybeensacrificed
afterindexrateforpensionhikeswerecutto4%,waybelowinflation.

Cuttingmilitaryspendingisthemostobviousandleastpainfulcutthestatewillmakeandwillalmostcertainlynothappen.Indeed,during
thebudgetdebatestheMinistryofFinancepushedhardtocurtainmilitaryspendingandwaspromptlyslappeddown.
Putinhasmadeitcrystalclearthatthemodernisationofthearmedforcesissacrosanctandiswillingtolaytheeconomyonthesacrificial
altertohisgeopoliticalgoalswhateverthosemaybe.Athirdofbudgetexpenditure(32%)willgotothemilitarywithveryfewcuts(and
$1.2bnfortheSyriacampaign).

Increasinglythegovernmentseemstobegraspingatstrawstofillthegap.InDecember,SiluanovannouncedanambitiousRUB1trillion
privatisationprogrammefor2016withsomebigsexynamesonthemootedlist,includingstakesinoilmajorRosneft,shippinggiant
SovkomflotandoilminorRosen.DeputyFinanceMinisterAlexeiMoisseevtoldinvestorsinLondonthatSovkomflotwillbesold"come
whatmay".Buttheprivatisationplanisexactlythesameonethatwasfloatedinthesummerof2008attheendoftheboomyears,which
cametonothingthenbeforetheglobalcrisisbroke.Eveniftheprivatisationtargetwashit,thatcouldstillleavethestateRUB1trillion
shorttoclosethebudgetdeficit.

Themostlikelyscenariofor2016isthattheKremlinrunsdownitsreservesandletsmorerubledevaluationtaketherestofthestrain.
Despiteallitsproblems,Russiaisstillrunningatradeandcurrentaccountsurpluswiththelatterbringinginaprofitofabout$60bnin
hardcurrencyin2015.Asthegovernmenthassignificantrevenuesindollarsbutexpendituresinunadjustedrubles,lettingthevalueofthe
rubleslideabsorbsmuchoftheoilpriceshock.Analystsestimatetherublewillend2016ataboutRUB80-85tothedollarfromthe
currentRUB70,butifoilpricescontinuetofallthenRUB100isnotimpossible.

Gazeta.ru(http://www.gazeta.ru/business/2016/01/08/8003351.shtml)reportstalkof$20/barrel,whilesomeexpertsareeven
saying$15/barrelispossibleOilplummetingto$25or$15/barrelwouldcausealotofshocksintheRussianeconomy
currencyincomewouldfall,aswouldtherubleexchangerateimportswouldgrowmoreexpensiveinflationrateswouldincrease
andtheCentralBankwouldrespondwithhigherinterestratestheFinanceMinistrywouldcutexpendituresandinvestment
wouldfallrealincomeswoulddeclinefurtheraswouldconsumerdemandalongwithit.At$15-$25/barrel,therublewould
inevitablyfalltoR100/dollar.

Nevertheless,therecouldbeseriousfluctuationsofoilpriceswarintheMiddleEastandNorthAfricamightmeanbombedoil
pipelinesandports,sunkentankersandmoresooilat$100/barrelagainisnotimpossible.ButwhatRussianeedsmostofallis
stableoilprices,pricesthatwillstabilizeinflationandtherubleexchangerate

Chayka:TheProsecutorsofficewillnotWeakenitsgrip

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russian-prosecutor-generals-office-wont-weaken-grip-after-navalnys-
film/555555.html

Russia'sProsecutorGeneralYuryChaikagaveaninterviewtothestate-runRossiiskayaGazetanewspaperTuesdayand
saidhisofficewouldn'tweakenitsgripbecauseofinformationattacksonit,referringtotheinvestigativefilmreleased
byAlexeiNavalny'sAnti-CorruptionFoundation(FBK),thatallegedChaika'sfamilywasinvolvedinvariousillegalactivities.

ThosewhoaremakingtheseinformationattackshopethattheProsecutorGeneral'sOfficewillweakenitsgripIt
won't.Wewillnotchangetheprioritiesofourwork,nomatterwhotriestoforceustodoit,hesaid.

Chaikaaddedthattheofficeiscurrentlybattlingthosewhoaretryingtoelicitlegalchaosinthecountry.Trustme,we
havetheleveragetofaceanychallenges,hesaid.

AfterFBKreleasedtheChaikafilm,theProsecutorGeneralclaimedthatBritish-AmericaninvestorBillBrowderandthe
U.S.secretserviceswerebehindthefilmandsaidoppositionleaderNavalnyplayedahumbleroleinthisstory.Seethe
14and18Decembernotes.

NavalnyhasfiledseverallawsuitsindifferentMoscowcourts,accusingChaikaofdefamation,buttonoavailsofarall
ofthecourtshavedeclinedtoprocessthesuits.

HeresalinktotheChaykainterviewwithRosGaz:http://www.rg.ru/2016/01/12/chajka.htmlChaykagoesonaboutthefight
againstcorruptionhowmanycases,casesagainstofficials,includinggovernors,Russiaseffortstotakepartininternationalanti-
corruptionagreementsandsoon.Healsotalksaboutcombattingterrorism,includingshuttingdownterrorism-connectedweb
sites.Inspiteofsanctions,theProsecutorsofficecontinuestotakepartininternationalcooperativeefforts.Thereareproblems,
barrierstoovercome,butRussiaremainsatwork,tryingtoreturnmoneymadethroughcriminalmeansandshippedoverseas.

HeresthepartonaninformationattackandnotweakeningthegripoftheProsecutorsofficereferredtoabove:

,
?,-?
 :,,,
"",..
,.,,
,.

,
,.,
.

TheresmorestuffonclosingdownforeignNGOs,nothingnewOnNavalniyslawsuits:

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/moscow-court-refuses-navalnys-chaika-lawsuit/555570.htmlMoscow's
PresnenskydistrictcourthasdeclinedtoprocessRussianoppositionleaderAlexeiNavalny'slawsuitagainstProsecutor
GeneralYuryChaikaandtheopposition-leaningEchoMoskvyradiostation,theRBCnewsagencyreportedTuesday,
citingcourtspokespersonNinaYurkova.

ThislawsuitisoneofmanyattemptsthatNavalnyhasmadetosueChaikafordefamationlastyearfiveMoscow
districtcourtsrefusedtoregisterhislawsuits,givingvariousreasonsfortheirrefusals.

OnDec.1,Navalny'sAnti-CorruptionFoundationreleasedChaika,aninvestigativefilmthataccusedChaika'sfamily
members,includinghistwosons,ofbeinginvolvedinshadybusinessdealsandvariousillegalactivities.

TwoweekslaterChaikaaccusedaBritish-AmericaninvestorWilliamBrowderandtheU.S.secretservicesofbeing
behindthefilmandclaimedNavalnyplayedahumbleroleinthisstory.

Ihavenodoubtthatthisfull-of-liesfilmwasorderedbyBillBrowder[headoftheHermitageCapitalinvestmentfund],and
secretservicesbehindhim,ChaikawasquotedassayinginaletterpublishedbytheKommersantnewspaperonDec.
14.

AfterthreeMoscowcourtsdeclinedtoprocessNavalny'ssuits,hedecidedtosuemediaoutletsthathadpublished
Chaika'slettertheKommersantandVedomostinewspapers,theEkhoMoskvyradiostation,theSlonnewswebsite,
theRBCnewsagencyandtheDozhdTVchannelalongwiththeProsecutorGeneral,inordertohavethesuits
processedbycourts.

Iapologizetotherespectableoutletsinadvancefortheinconvenience,unfortunately,wehavetomakethemofficialco-
defendants[inthesesuits]inorderforourcourtstofinallyacceptthesuits,NavalnywroteonhisblogonDec.29.

SoloveysaysUkraineisrightnottobuyRussiangas

ItsabuyersmarketandUkrainecangetgascheaperinEurope:http://vk.com/id244477574?w=wall244477574_14227%2Fall

 From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 12/24/201510:01:52AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:["XMASEVE"EARLYDIGEST]Fwd:SituationReport[MaterialRelevanttoUA&Region][NoteMK'MUSTREAD']......FPEditors'Pick:
Subject:
Syria/RU.....VenetianCommissionconfirmsUkraine'srighttoundertakedecommunization.......FromAndyF:Mariupoladvan...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Thursday,December24,20157:42AM
Subject:Fwd:["XMASEVE"EARLYDIGEST]Fwd:SituationReport[MaterialRelevanttoUA&Region][NoteMK'MUSTREAD']......FP
Editors'Pick:Syria/RU.....VenetianCommissionconfirmsUkraine'srighttoundertakedecommunization.......FromAndyF:Mariupol
advan...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Thu,Dec24,2015at10:41AM
Subject:["XMASEVE"EARLYDIGEST]Fwd:SituationReport[MaterialRelevanttoUA&Region][NoteMK'MUST
READ']......FPEditors'Pick:Syria/RU.....VenetianCommissionconfirmsUkraine'srighttoundertakedecommunization.......From
AndyF:Mariupoladvanceandaccompanyingpropaganda
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MiraKyzyk<mirakyzyk@gmail.com>
Date:Thu,Dec24,2015at7:48AM
Subject:RussiaissharinginformationwiththeTalibantofighttheIslamicState-TheWashingtonPost
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2015/12/23/russia-is-sharing-information-with-the-taliban-to-fight-the-
islamic-state/?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_daily202

[ED:FirstQuestion:WhoisstillkillingAmericansinAfghanistan?SecondQuestion:IsRUreallysharingintel
withsaidgroup?Finalquestion:What'supwiththat??]

Afghanistan

Russiasaysit'ssharingintelligencewiththeTalibanontheIslamicStateas"theTalibaninterestobjectivelycoincideswith
ours,"accordingtotheRussianforeignministry,accordingtotheWashingtonPost.Themovemakesforstrange
bedfellows,asthegroupsprangoutoftheashesoftheSovietUnion'sinvasionofAfghanistanandtheTalibanremainson
Russia'sofficiallistofdesignatedterroristgroups.TheTalibanandtheIslamicStatehavebeenwagingalowgradewarwith
eachotherrecentlyasdisaffectedTalibanhavedefectedfromthegroupandtakenonthemantleoftheIslamicStateto
challengetheirformerorganization.


----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:ForeignPolicy<fp@foreignpolicy.com>
Date:Thu,Dec24,2015at7:52AM
Subject:SituationReport:OnemansCIAisanothersterroristISISordersquestionedhowtobuildabridgeinIraqfreshdetails
onWashingtonsoutreachtoAssadandlotsmore
To:waz2102@columbia.edu

S i t u a t i o n R e p o r t : O n e m a n s C I A i s a n o t h e r s t e r r o r i s t I S I S o r d e r s q u e s t i o n e d h o w t o b u i l d a b r i d g e i n I r a q f r e s h d e t a i l s o n W a s h i n g t o n s o u t r e a c h t o A s s a d a n d l o t s m o r e

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SITUATION
REPORT

TheNationalSecurityDailyBrieffrom
ForeignPolicy

Thursday,December24,2015 SUBSCRIBETO
FP

FollowUs:

ByPaulMcLearywithAdamRawnsley

Whosaterrorist?ThedebateattheUnitedNationsoverhowto
reachapoliticalsolutiontoSyriasfive-year-longcivilwarhasalready
hitawall.ButSecretaryofStateJohnKerryisscramblingtopush
squabblingnationspastwhatappeartobesomeseriouslyintractable
issues.FPsColumLynchdeliversanotherofhisdeeply-sourced
peeksintotheinnerworkingsofTurtleBay,findingthattheU.S.,
Russia,Iran,andSaudiArabiaareatoddsoverwhichSyrianfighters
they'llbeabletoshootasterroristsandwhichwillbelabeled
moderates.

ThewholethinggotsobadFridayduringclosed-door,high-leveltalks
inNewYork,Lynchssourcessay,thatthetalksdescendedinto
somethingofadiplomaticbrawlafterIranstopdiplomatthreatenedto
pushfortheCIAtobedesignatedaterroristorganizationafterarival
countrysgovernmentrecommendedthatIransIslamicRevolutionary
GuardCorpsbegiventhesamelabel.

Thespatcausedofficialstotabletheissueofwhichgroupstoconsider
terroristsforthemoment.Buttheissuewillcomeback.Atsomepoint,
the17-nationInternationalSyriaSupportGroupwillbeforcedto
chooseamongthewhopping167groupsoperatinginSyriathatstand
accusedofterrorismbyatleastonememberofthegroup.Andthen
theylldothisalloveragain....

Thisoneisntabridgetonowhere.Iraqiforcescontinuetopush
intotheIslamicState-heldcityofRamadi,buthavebeenslowedbya
freshonslaughtofsuicidebombers,snipersandboobytrapsleft
behindbyISISforcesfightingitoutinthecity.Theoverwhelmingodds-
-10,000governmenttroopsvs.maybe500ISISmilitants--are
weightedprettyheavilyinBaghdadsfavor,butifsimilarfightsoverthe
pastyearinKobani,Baiji,andSinjarareanyindication,thegoingwill
beslow,andbloody.

Overthepast24hours,aircraftfromtheU.S.-ledcoalitionhave
droppeddozensofbombsonthecity,accordingtoseveralstatements
fromtheU.S.militaryinBaghdadearlyThursday,whichdetailan
 onslaughtthatpoundedeverythingfromISISfightingpositionsto
buildingsusedashousing.

FPsDavidFrancistakesarevealinglookathowtheassaultbegan,
however:withIraqiunitsbuildingamakeshiftfloatingbridgeacrossthe
EuphratesRiver.U.S.forceshadtrainedtheIraqishowtodeploythe
bridge,anditlooksliketheynailedit.Wanttoseemore?Francis
includesacoolvideoofU.S.Marinesbuildingasimilarfloatingbridge.
Perfectviewingforfamilyget-togethers.

Docdoubts.Aretheyreal,ornot?Theresbeensomedebateover
theauthenticityofachillingdocumentthePentagonreleasedthis
week,whichpurportstoshowthatIslamicStatefightersoccupying
Fallujahareplanningtoslaughtercivilians,andblameitontheIraqi
armyandShiitemilitias.

ThenineordersfromISISleaderstotheirhenchmenlistedontheone-
pagedocumentarebrutalintheirsimplicity,FPsPaulMcLeary
reports.Tortureandkillinnocentcivilians.Assaultwomen.Blowup
mosques.Lureciviliansintoexplosive-ladenbuildingsandblowthemto
bits.Andmakesurecamerasareinplacetocapturethecarnage.

Problemis,someintelanalystsandexpertsonShiitemilitiaspointto
cluesinthedocumentthattheysaycastsdoubtonwhetheritwas
producedbyISIS,orisaruseconcoctedbyShiitefighterswhohave
brutalizedSunniciviliansinthepast.

AndfinallyWecouldntletthisonepass.Theholidaysarehereand
it'stimeforyouandthefamilytositback,relax,andthrowyourselves
infrontofaroaringSithLordfuneralpyre.Forthoseofyouwho
don'thaveafireplaceoraccesstoadeceasedseniorImperialofficial
skilledinthedarksideoftheForce,wepresentafive-hourloopofa
burningDarthVaderinlieuofaboringyulelog.

Thatlldoitforusthisweek,butwellbebackatitcome
Mondaytostartburningoffthecookiecalories.Ifyoure
celebratingtheholiday,wehopeitsisrestfulandfun,andif
not,enjoythequiet!GoseeStarWars!Asalways,ifyouhave
anythoughts,announcements,tips,ornationalsecurity-related
eventstoshare,pleasepassthemalongtoSitRepHQ!Bestway
istosendthemtopaul.mcleary@foreignpolicy.comoron
Twitter:@paulmclearyor@arawnsley.

Syria

TheU.S.tried--andfailed--topersuadeSyrianPresidentBasharal-
Assadtorestrainhisregime'sviolenceagainstciviliansandaccepta
transitionofpowerthroughanumberofsecretbackchannels,
accordingtoascoopfromtheWallStreetJournal.TheU.S.initially
reachedouttoseniorAssadregimeofficialsinabidtostirregime
change,butswitchedtacticsaftertheoutreachfailed.Followingthat,
WashingtonreachedouttotheAssadregimedirectlyandthrough
intermediarieslikeRussiaandIran,warningthemnottousechemical
weaponsandtoabstainfromthecontinualuseofbarrelbombs,allto
noeffect.

Turkey

GermanyhaspulleditsPatriotmissileairdefensesystemsfromTurkey,
DefenseNewsreports.Germanofficialstelegraphedthemove
monthsinadvance,anditfollowstheremovalofU.S.andDutchPatriot
batteries,leavingSpainastheonlycountrywithPatriotmissiles
deployedinTurkey.TheNATOcountriesdeployedPatriotbatteriesto
thecountryin2013inordertohelpdefenditfromthethreatofmissile
firefromSyria,butNATOofficialssaythatthelong-plannedremovalis
duemoretoplannedmodernizationofthesystemsthananythingelse.
 Afghanistan

Russiasaysit'ssharingintelligencewiththeTalibanontheIslamic
Stateas"theTalibaninterestobjectivelycoincideswithours,"
accordingtotheRussianforeignministry,accordingtothe
WashingtonPost.Themovemakesforstrangebedfellows,asthe
groupsprangoutoftheashesoftheSovietUnion'sinvasionof
AfghanistanandtheTalibanremainsonRussia'sofficiallistof
designatedterroristgroups.TheTalibanandtheIslamicStatehave
beenwagingalowgradewarwitheachotherrecentlyasdisaffected
Talibanhavedefectedfromthegroupandtakenonthemantleofthe
IslamicStatetochallengetheirformerorganization.

Russia

TheChristmasseasonisuponusandRussiaishandingoutgiftsto
itsneighborKazakhstanintheformofafreedeliveryofS-300air
defensemissiles,accordingtoUPI.ThegiftispartofRussia'splanto
knittogetheranetworkofairdefensesystemsamongitsneighbors
andformermembersoftheSovietUnion.

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----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:ForeignPolicy<fp@foreignpolicy.com>
Date:Wed,Dec23,2015at5:38PM
Subject:Editors'Picks:RussianairstrikestargetSyriancivilians
To:waz2102@columbia.edu

Ifyouhaveproblemsviewingthisemail,viewitinabrowser.


EDITORS'

PICKS

Wednesday,

December23

WelcometoEditors'Picks,FP'sround-upoftheday'sbest
articles.

1 SYRIA'SSTALINGRAD:AssadhopestoturnHoms
intoasymbolofhisgovernment'sresurgentfortunes--

butitmightendupasaniconofhisutterbrutality,
writesFP'sThanassisCambanis:Readmore

3 COLLATERALDAMAGE:Russiaisindiscriminately
targetingcivilianswithitsairstrikesinSyria,according

toanewAmnestyInternationalreport,writesFP's
SiobhanO'Grady:Readmore

CheckinlaterwhenFP'sColumLynchreportsontheU.S.,
Russia,andIran'sdisagreementaboutwhoshouldbe
labeleda"terrorist"inSyria,andotherdevelopingstories
fromaroundtheworld.

ForeignPolicyMagazine
editorspicks@foreignpolicy.com

Thisemailwassent
towaz2102@columbia.edubyfp@foreignpolicy.com.

UPDATE ADVERTISE ForeignPolicyMagazineispublishedbytheFP
PROFILE Group,adivisionofGrahamHoldingsCompany.All
GROUPSALES
UNSUBSCRIBE ANDLICENSING contents2015TheSlateGroup,LLC.Allrights
reserved.ForeignPolicy,11DUPONTCIRCLENW,
PRIVACY
SUITE600,WASHINGTONDC20036
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----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:VIKOHUT<vikohut@msn.com>
Date:2015-12-249:42GMT-05:00
Subject:VenetianCommissionconfirmsUkraine'srighttoundertakedecommunisation
To:"VI(msn)Kohut"<VIKOHUT@msn.com>
- _.docx - ENG

- .docx - UKR

----- Original Message -----

From:AndriyKohut

To:HistoryCDVR

***

Venetian Commission confirms Ukraine's right to undertake decommunisation

Decommunisation is to proceed, plans are to improve the legislation. The aim is unchanged
to create social unacceptance of human rights violations and to prevent the propagation of
totalitarian practices.

"The Venetian Commission recognised the right of Ukraine to ban or to even impose criminal
responsibility for the use of specific symbols and for the propagation of totalitarian regimes,"
states the preliminary report with respect to one of the laws about decommunisation, made public
following the meeting of the Venetian Commission.

The meeting took place 18 December 2015. The meeting's decision was reported in the joint
preliminary report of the Venetian Commission and the OSCE with respect to the law of Ukraine
"About the condemnation of communist and national-socialist (Nazi) totalitarian regimes in
Ukraine and the banning of the propagation of their symbols".

The results of this stage of the Commission's work and Ukraine's position on receiving the
preliminary recommendations were reported at a news conference in the Ukrainian Crisis Media
Centre by Andriy Parubiy, first deputy head of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Pavlo Petrenko,
Minister of Justice Hanna Hopko, chair of the Verkhovna Rada Committee of Foreign Affairs and
co-author of the law Volodymyr Viatrovych, head of the Ukrainian Institute of National
Remembrance Sergiy Petukhov, Deputy Minister of Justice and a participant of the Venetian
Commission hearings Ihor Rozkladay, lawyer with the Institute of Media Law, and a senior
advisor of the Reanimation Package of Reforms.

In general, the members of the Venetian Commission, in recognising the right of Ukraine to
undertake decommunisation, ban propaganda and the use of totalitarian symbols, expressed
concerns about, in their opinion, overly strict sanctions in the event of the violations of the law. It
was recommended to Ukraine in particular, that the term "propaganda" be better defined, to avoid
any possible negative effect on the freedom of expression and academic discourse.

This position - which is intermediary, and the discussion on the improvement of it with the
Venetian Commission is continuing.

Ukraine will study the comments, will work with them and is prepared to consider them in order to
improve the law on decommunisation.

The legal supremacy of the citizens' rights and liberties is not possible without am unwavering
condemnation and prevention of actions, which represent a direct threat to the fundamental
human right to life of people. The failure to condemn the crimes of communism and the absence of
sanctions with respect to the use of totalitarian practices in the affairs of state led to the massive
violations of human rights by the Yanukovych regime, to murder and war.

The main aim of the laws on decommunisation is the creation of a social environment that will not
permit restrictions of rights and liberties.

In the opinion of the Ukrainian state, stated in the preamble of the law, this law is adopted and
implemented "with the aim of preventing the repetition of the crimes of the communist and
national-socialist (Nazi) totalitarian regimes, any type of discrimination on the basis of national,
social, class, ethnic, race or other, in the future, the renewal of historic and social justice, removal
of threats to the independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity and national security of Ukraine."

The participants of the news conference also stressed that the law went through public
discussions, its acceptance took place in accordance with parliamentary procedure, which was
confirmed by a decision of the Constitution Court.

The process of decommunisation and denazification took place in all democratic European
countries which suffered from totalitarian regimes. The policy of national remembrance, of which
decommunisation is a part, became one of the bases of the democratic transformation. The
success and regional specifics of such state measures are underlined in a resolution of the
Parliamentary Assembly of the OSCE in 2009: "The transition from a communist dictatorship to
democracy cannot take place instantly. The historical record and cultural heritage of each country
must be taken into account."
In April 2015 the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine approved a package of four laws about
decommunisation: about the condemnation of total regimes, provision of full access by citizens to
the secret documentation of Soviet special services, the legal status of the participants of the fight
for independence, and the immortalisation of the memory of the fight against nazism. The
Venetian Commission made separate recommendations with respect to only the first of these laws.

The participants of the news conference affirmed that the process of decommunisation, which
began following the Revolution of Dignity, will be implemented in full.

, .
.

,
, ,
18 2015 .

- ()
.

- - ,
, ,
, ,
, ,
, , .

,
, , ,
. , , ,
.

, .

,
.

,
.

, .

.
, ,
- () , -
, , , , ,
, , ,
.

- , ,
, .

, ,
. , ,
 .
2009 :
.
.

2015 :
, ,
.
.

-
.

--

| Andriy Kohut

mob.: +38 063 617 97 05 | fax +380 32 247 45 22

andriy.kohut@cdvr.org.ua | http://cdvr.org.ua

| Center for Research on the Liberation Movement

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:AndrewFink<finkandrewh@gmail.com>
Date:Wed,Dec23,2015at5:30PM
Subject:Mariupoladvanceandaccompanyingpropaganda
To:"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

MovementtowardsMariupol

TherearemultiplereportsofasmallRussianadvancetowardsMariupol,occupyingKomiternoveand
Vodyane,abouta15minutedriveuptheT0519roadNEofMariupol.OnereportsaystheRussiansare
diggingin.Interpretersummaryofactivityhere:http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-live-day-673-us-
issues-sanctions-on-34-new-individuals-and-entities/#11604

 AccompanyingPropaganda

ForanindicationthattheRussian'sareplanningsomethingmorethanareconnaissanceinforcearound
Mariupol,checkoutthisitemfromtodayfromSputnik:"Agroupofabout100Turkishmercenarieshavearrived
inMariupol.Theirmainaimistocarryoutsubversiveandinflammatoryactivitiestargetingbothmilitaryandciviliansites
incoastalareasin[both]theDPRandRussia..."ThisitemislargelyatranslationofabulletinputoutbytheofficialDNR
pressearliertoday.

 From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 12/24/201510:01:52AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:["XMASEVE"EARLYDIGEST]Fwd:SituationReport[MaterialRelevanttoUA&Region][NoteMK'MUSTREAD']......FPEditors'Pick:
Subject:
Syria/RU.....VenetianCommissionconfirmsUkraine'srighttoundertakedecommunization.......FromAndyF:Mariupoladvan...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Thursday,December24,20157:42AM
Subject:Fwd:["XMASEVE"EARLYDIGEST]Fwd:SituationReport[MaterialRelevanttoUA&Region][NoteMK'MUSTREAD']......FP
Editors'Pick:Syria/RU.....VenetianCommissionconfirmsUkraine'srighttoundertakedecommunization.......FromAndyF:Mariupol
advan...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Thu,Dec24,2015at10:41AM
Subject:["XMASEVE"EARLYDIGEST]Fwd:SituationReport[MaterialRelevanttoUA&Region][NoteMK'MUST
READ']......FPEditors'Pick:Syria/RU.....VenetianCommissionconfirmsUkraine'srighttoundertakedecommunization.......From
AndyF:Mariupoladvanceandaccompanyingpropaganda
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MiraKyzyk<mirakyzyk@gmail.com>
Date:Thu,Dec24,2015at7:48AM
Subject:RussiaissharinginformationwiththeTalibantofighttheIslamicState-TheWashingtonPost
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2015/12/23/russia-is-sharing-information-with-the-taliban-to-fight-the-
islamic-state/?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_daily202

[ED:FirstQuestion:WhoisstillkillingAmericansinAfghanistan?SecondQuestion:IsRUreallysharingintel
withsaidgroup?Finalquestion:What'supwiththat??]

Afghanistan

Russiasaysit'ssharingintelligencewiththeTalibanontheIslamicStateas"theTalibaninterestobjectivelycoincideswith
ours,"accordingtotheRussianforeignministry,accordingtotheWashingtonPost.Themovemakesforstrange
bedfellows,asthegroupsprangoutoftheashesoftheSovietUnion'sinvasionofAfghanistanandtheTalibanremainson
Russia'sofficiallistofdesignatedterroristgroups.TheTalibanandtheIslamicStatehavebeenwagingalowgradewarwith
eachotherrecentlyasdisaffectedTalibanhavedefectedfromthegroupandtakenonthemantleoftheIslamicStateto
challengetheirformerorganization.


----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:ForeignPolicy<fp@foreignpolicy.com>
Date:Thu,Dec24,2015at7:52AM
Subject:SituationReport:OnemansCIAisanothersterroristISISordersquestionedhowtobuildabridgeinIraqfreshdetails
onWashingtonsoutreachtoAssadandlotsmore
To:waz2102@columbia.edu

S i t u a t i o n R e p o r t : O n e m a n s C I A i s a n o t h e r s t e r r o r i s t I S I S o r d e r s q u e s t i o n e d h o w t o b u i l d a b r i d g e i n I r a q f r e s h d e t a i l s o n W a s h i n g t o n s o u t r e a c h t o A s s a d a n d l o t s m o r e

Ifyouhaveproblemsviewingthisemail,viewitinabrowser.Pleasefeelfreetoforwardittoafriend.

SITUATION
REPORT

TheNationalSecurityDailyBrieffrom
ForeignPolicy

Thursday,December24,2015 SUBSCRIBETO
FP

FollowUs:

ByPaulMcLearywithAdamRawnsley

Whosaterrorist?ThedebateattheUnitedNationsoverhowto
reachapoliticalsolutiontoSyriasfive-year-longcivilwarhasalready
hitawall.ButSecretaryofStateJohnKerryisscramblingtopush
squabblingnationspastwhatappeartobesomeseriouslyintractable
issues.FPsColumLynchdeliversanotherofhisdeeply-sourced
peeksintotheinnerworkingsofTurtleBay,findingthattheU.S.,
Russia,Iran,andSaudiArabiaareatoddsoverwhichSyrianfighters
they'llbeabletoshootasterroristsandwhichwillbelabeled
moderates.

ThewholethinggotsobadFridayduringclosed-door,high-leveltalks
inNewYork,Lynchssourcessay,thatthetalksdescendedinto
somethingofadiplomaticbrawlafterIranstopdiplomatthreatenedto
pushfortheCIAtobedesignatedaterroristorganizationafterarival
countrysgovernmentrecommendedthatIransIslamicRevolutionary
GuardCorpsbegiventhesamelabel.

Thespatcausedofficialstotabletheissueofwhichgroupstoconsider
terroristsforthemoment.Buttheissuewillcomeback.Atsomepoint,
the17-nationInternationalSyriaSupportGroupwillbeforcedto
chooseamongthewhopping167groupsoperatinginSyriathatstand
accusedofterrorismbyatleastonememberofthegroup.Andthen
theylldothisalloveragain....

Thisoneisntabridgetonowhere.Iraqiforcescontinuetopush
intotheIslamicState-heldcityofRamadi,buthavebeenslowedbya
freshonslaughtofsuicidebombers,snipersandboobytrapsleft
behindbyISISforcesfightingitoutinthecity.Theoverwhelmingodds-
-10,000governmenttroopsvs.maybe500ISISmilitants--are
weightedprettyheavilyinBaghdadsfavor,butifsimilarfightsoverthe
pastyearinKobani,Baiji,andSinjarareanyindication,thegoingwill
beslow,andbloody.

Overthepast24hours,aircraftfromtheU.S.-ledcoalitionhave
droppeddozensofbombsonthecity,accordingtoseveralstatements
fromtheU.S.militaryinBaghdadearlyThursday,whichdetailan
 onslaughtthatpoundedeverythingfromISISfightingpositionsto
buildingsusedashousing.

FPsDavidFrancistakesarevealinglookathowtheassaultbegan,
however:withIraqiunitsbuildingamakeshiftfloatingbridgeacrossthe
EuphratesRiver.U.S.forceshadtrainedtheIraqishowtodeploythe
bridge,anditlooksliketheynailedit.Wanttoseemore?Francis
includesacoolvideoofU.S.Marinesbuildingasimilarfloatingbridge.
Perfectviewingforfamilyget-togethers.

Docdoubts.Aretheyreal,ornot?Theresbeensomedebateover
theauthenticityofachillingdocumentthePentagonreleasedthis
week,whichpurportstoshowthatIslamicStatefightersoccupying
Fallujahareplanningtoslaughtercivilians,andblameitontheIraqi
armyandShiitemilitias.

ThenineordersfromISISleaderstotheirhenchmenlistedontheone-
pagedocumentarebrutalintheirsimplicity,FPsPaulMcLeary
reports.Tortureandkillinnocentcivilians.Assaultwomen.Blowup
mosques.Lureciviliansintoexplosive-ladenbuildingsandblowthemto
bits.Andmakesurecamerasareinplacetocapturethecarnage.

Problemis,someintelanalystsandexpertsonShiitemilitiaspointto
cluesinthedocumentthattheysaycastsdoubtonwhetheritwas
producedbyISIS,orisaruseconcoctedbyShiitefighterswhohave
brutalizedSunniciviliansinthepast.

AndfinallyWecouldntletthisonepass.Theholidaysarehereand
it'stimeforyouandthefamilytositback,relax,andthrowyourselves
infrontofaroaringSithLordfuneralpyre.Forthoseofyouwho
don'thaveafireplaceoraccesstoadeceasedseniorImperialofficial
skilledinthedarksideoftheForce,wepresentafive-hourloopofa
burningDarthVaderinlieuofaboringyulelog.

Thatlldoitforusthisweek,butwellbebackatitcome
Mondaytostartburningoffthecookiecalories.Ifyoure
celebratingtheholiday,wehopeitsisrestfulandfun,andif
not,enjoythequiet!GoseeStarWars!Asalways,ifyouhave
anythoughts,announcements,tips,ornationalsecurity-related
eventstoshare,pleasepassthemalongtoSitRepHQ!Bestway
istosendthemtopaul.mcleary@foreignpolicy.comoron
Twitter:@paulmclearyor@arawnsley.

Syria

TheU.S.tried--andfailed--topersuadeSyrianPresidentBasharal-
Assadtorestrainhisregime'sviolenceagainstciviliansandaccepta
transitionofpowerthroughanumberofsecretbackchannels,
accordingtoascoopfromtheWallStreetJournal.TheU.S.initially
reachedouttoseniorAssadregimeofficialsinabidtostirregime
change,butswitchedtacticsaftertheoutreachfailed.Followingthat,
WashingtonreachedouttotheAssadregimedirectlyandthrough
intermediarieslikeRussiaandIran,warningthemnottousechemical
weaponsandtoabstainfromthecontinualuseofbarrelbombs,allto
noeffect.

Turkey

GermanyhaspulleditsPatriotmissileairdefensesystemsfromTurkey,
DefenseNewsreports.Germanofficialstelegraphedthemove
monthsinadvance,anditfollowstheremovalofU.S.andDutchPatriot
batteries,leavingSpainastheonlycountrywithPatriotmissiles
deployedinTurkey.TheNATOcountriesdeployedPatriotbatteriesto
thecountryin2013inordertohelpdefenditfromthethreatofmissile
firefromSyria,butNATOofficialssaythatthelong-plannedremovalis
duemoretoplannedmodernizationofthesystemsthananythingelse.
 Afghanistan

Russiasaysit'ssharingintelligencewiththeTalibanontheIslamic
Stateas"theTalibaninterestobjectivelycoincideswithours,"
accordingtotheRussianforeignministry,accordingtothe
WashingtonPost.Themovemakesforstrangebedfellows,asthe
groupsprangoutoftheashesoftheSovietUnion'sinvasionof
AfghanistanandtheTalibanremainsonRussia'sofficiallistof
designatedterroristgroups.TheTalibanandtheIslamicStatehave
beenwagingalowgradewarwitheachotherrecentlyasdisaffected
Talibanhavedefectedfromthegroupandtakenonthemantleofthe
IslamicStatetochallengetheirformerorganization.

Russia

TheChristmasseasonisuponusandRussiaishandingoutgiftsto
itsneighborKazakhstanintheformofafreedeliveryofS-300air
defensemissiles,accordingtoUPI.ThegiftispartofRussia'splanto
knittogetheranetworkofairdefensesystemsamongitsneighbors
andformermembersoftheSovietUnion.

TRENDINGONFOREIGNPOLICY.COM

Syrias
Revoltinan TheFinalLump
Stalingrad
AfricanStasi ofCoalin

byThanassis
Cambanis

State
Britains

byJeffrey Stocking
SmithMohammed

bySteffanMorgan
Ademo

Thisemailwassenttowaz2102@columbia.eduby
fp@foreignpolicy.com.

UPDATE ADVERTISE ForeignPolicyMagazineispublishedbytheFP
PROFILE Group,adivisionofGrahamHoldingsCompany.All
GROUPSALES
UNSUBSCRIBE ANDLICENSING contents2015TheSlateGroup,LLC.Allrights
reserved.ForeignPolicy,11DUPONTCIRCLENW,
PRIVACY
SUITE600,WASHINGTONDC20036
POLICY

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:ForeignPolicy<fp@foreignpolicy.com>
Date:Wed,Dec23,2015at5:38PM
Subject:Editors'Picks:RussianairstrikestargetSyriancivilians
To:waz2102@columbia.edu

Ifyouhaveproblemsviewingthisemail,viewitinabrowser.


EDITORS'

PICKS

Wednesday,

December23

WelcometoEditors'Picks,FP'sround-upoftheday'sbest
articles.

1 SYRIA'SSTALINGRAD:AssadhopestoturnHoms
intoasymbolofhisgovernment'sresurgentfortunes--

butitmightendupasaniconofhisutterbrutality,
writesFP'sThanassisCambanis:Readmore

3 COLLATERALDAMAGE:Russiaisindiscriminately
targetingcivilianswithitsairstrikesinSyria,according

toanewAmnestyInternationalreport,writesFP's
SiobhanO'Grady:Readmore

CheckinlaterwhenFP'sColumLynchreportsontheU.S.,
Russia,andIran'sdisagreementaboutwhoshouldbe
labeleda"terrorist"inSyria,andotherdevelopingstories
fromaroundtheworld.

ForeignPolicyMagazine
editorspicks@foreignpolicy.com

Thisemailwassent
towaz2102@columbia.edubyfp@foreignpolicy.com.

UPDATE ADVERTISE ForeignPolicyMagazineispublishedbytheFP
PROFILE Group,adivisionofGrahamHoldingsCompany.All
GROUPSALES
UNSUBSCRIBE ANDLICENSING contents2015TheSlateGroup,LLC.Allrights
reserved.ForeignPolicy,11DUPONTCIRCLENW,
PRIVACY
SUITE600,WASHINGTONDC20036
POLICY

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:VIKOHUT<vikohut@msn.com>
Date:2015-12-249:42GMT-05:00
Subject:VenetianCommissionconfirmsUkraine'srighttoundertakedecommunisation
To:"VI(msn)Kohut"<VIKOHUT@msn.com>
- _.docx - ENG

- .docx - UKR

----- Original Message -----

From:AndriyKohut

To:HistoryCDVR

***

Venetian Commission confirms Ukraine's right to undertake decommunisation

Decommunisation is to proceed, plans are to improve the legislation. The aim is unchanged
to create social unacceptance of human rights violations and to prevent the propagation of
totalitarian practices.

"The Venetian Commission recognised the right of Ukraine to ban or to even impose criminal
responsibility for the use of specific symbols and for the propagation of totalitarian regimes,"
states the preliminary report with respect to one of the laws about decommunisation, made public
following the meeting of the Venetian Commission.

The meeting took place 18 December 2015. The meeting's decision was reported in the joint
preliminary report of the Venetian Commission and the OSCE with respect to the law of Ukraine
"About the condemnation of communist and national-socialist (Nazi) totalitarian regimes in
Ukraine and the banning of the propagation of their symbols".

The results of this stage of the Commission's work and Ukraine's position on receiving the
preliminary recommendations were reported at a news conference in the Ukrainian Crisis Media
Centre by Andriy Parubiy, first deputy head of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Pavlo Petrenko,
Minister of Justice Hanna Hopko, chair of the Verkhovna Rada Committee of Foreign Affairs and
co-author of the law Volodymyr Viatrovych, head of the Ukrainian Institute of National
Remembrance Sergiy Petukhov, Deputy Minister of Justice and a participant of the Venetian
Commission hearings Ihor Rozkladay, lawyer with the Institute of Media Law, and a senior
advisor of the Reanimation Package of Reforms.

In general, the members of the Venetian Commission, in recognising the right of Ukraine to
undertake decommunisation, ban propaganda and the use of totalitarian symbols, expressed
concerns about, in their opinion, overly strict sanctions in the event of the violations of the law. It
was recommended to Ukraine in particular, that the term "propaganda" be better defined, to avoid
any possible negative effect on the freedom of expression and academic discourse.

This position - which is intermediary, and the discussion on the improvement of it with the
Venetian Commission is continuing.

Ukraine will study the comments, will work with them and is prepared to consider them in order to
improve the law on decommunisation.

The legal supremacy of the citizens' rights and liberties is not possible without am unwavering
condemnation and prevention of actions, which represent a direct threat to the fundamental
human right to life of people. The failure to condemn the crimes of communism and the absence of
sanctions with respect to the use of totalitarian practices in the affairs of state led to the massive
violations of human rights by the Yanukovych regime, to murder and war.

The main aim of the laws on decommunisation is the creation of a social environment that will not
permit restrictions of rights and liberties.

In the opinion of the Ukrainian state, stated in the preamble of the law, this law is adopted and
implemented "with the aim of preventing the repetition of the crimes of the communist and
national-socialist (Nazi) totalitarian regimes, any type of discrimination on the basis of national,
social, class, ethnic, race or other, in the future, the renewal of historic and social justice, removal
of threats to the independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity and national security of Ukraine."

The participants of the news conference also stressed that the law went through public
discussions, its acceptance took place in accordance with parliamentary procedure, which was
confirmed by a decision of the Constitution Court.

The process of decommunisation and denazification took place in all democratic European
countries which suffered from totalitarian regimes. The policy of national remembrance, of which
decommunisation is a part, became one of the bases of the democratic transformation. The
success and regional specifics of such state measures are underlined in a resolution of the
Parliamentary Assembly of the OSCE in 2009: "The transition from a communist dictatorship to
democracy cannot take place instantly. The historical record and cultural heritage of each country
must be taken into account."
In April 2015 the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine approved a package of four laws about
decommunisation: about the condemnation of total regimes, provision of full access by citizens to
the secret documentation of Soviet special services, the legal status of the participants of the fight
for independence, and the immortalisation of the memory of the fight against nazism. The
Venetian Commission made separate recommendations with respect to only the first of these laws.

The participants of the news conference affirmed that the process of decommunisation, which
began following the Revolution of Dignity, will be implemented in full.

, .
.

,
, ,
18 2015 .

- ()
.

- - ,
, ,
, ,
, ,
, , .

,
, , ,
. , , ,
.

, .

,
.

,
.

, .

.
, ,
- () , -
, , , , ,
, , ,
.

- , ,
, .

, ,
. , ,
 .
2009 :
.
.

2015 :
, ,
.
.

-
.

--

| Andriy Kohut

mob.: +38 063 617 97 05 | fax +380 32 247 45 22

andriy.kohut@cdvr.org.ua | http://cdvr.org.ua

| Center for Research on the Liberation Movement

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:AndrewFink<finkandrewh@gmail.com>
Date:Wed,Dec23,2015at5:30PM
Subject:Mariupoladvanceandaccompanyingpropaganda
To:"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

MovementtowardsMariupol

TherearemultiplereportsofasmallRussianadvancetowardsMariupol,occupyingKomiternoveand
Vodyane,abouta15minutedriveuptheT0519roadNEofMariupol.OnereportsaystheRussiansare
diggingin.Interpretersummaryofactivityhere:http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-live-day-673-us-
issues-sanctions-on-34-new-individuals-and-entities/#11604

 AccompanyingPropaganda

ForanindicationthattheRussian'sareplanningsomethingmorethanareconnaissanceinforcearound
Mariupol,checkoutthisitemfromtodayfromSputnik:"Agroupofabout100Turkishmercenarieshavearrived
inMariupol.Theirmainaimistocarryoutsubversiveandinflammatoryactivitiestargetingbothmilitaryandciviliansites
incoastalareasin[both]theDPRandRussia..."ThisitemislargelyatranslationofabulletinputoutbytheofficialDNR
pressearliertoday.

IN12Jan16_0001.docx

Internet Notes 12 January 2016

Commentaries on Putins Bild interview .................................................................................... 1
Moskovskiy Komsomolets says that the Kremlin.ru web site altered the text of the Bild interview.......... 3
Part II of Putins Bild interview (Russia a regional power?; Russia and the G-8; Russia-NATO;
Russia-Turkey/Su-24; Russias air campaign in Syria; On Assad; a Libya scenario in Syria?;
Constitutional reform and early elections in Syria; Assads fate; ISIS; Saudi Arabia-Iran) ................... 4
Will Russia run out of money with $30/barrel oil? (R100/dollar?) ........................................ 11
Chayka: The Prosecutors office will not Weaken its grip ................................................. 14
Solovey says Ukraine is right not to buy Russian gas .............................................................. 16

Commentaries on Putins Bild interview

See yesterdays notes

An interview with the INDEM foundations Georgiy Satarov:

http://ru.krymr.com/content/article/27481403.html

At first, Satarov says he cant figure what the point of the interview wasLater, he says the
interview was, of course, meant for an external audience, not for the Russian domestic audience,
but VVPs comments about the annexation of Crimea (that the parliament was legally elected
and voted to hold a referendum) set a landmine under Russia, one that could explode at some
point, since logically, any component part of the Russian Federation could do the same. Putin is
reproducing the kind of conditions that brought on the collapse of the USSR. So, his words were
not meant for a domestic audience. If they were, then his words amount to a provocation. Its
obvious, though, that his comments indicated a way that would not lead to the unification of
Europe, but to its division. When Putin mentioned what mistakes Russia had madenot
asserting national interestshe was talking about mistakes made in 1990. But Russia had its
own domestic problems to deal with. The formulation of foreign policy at the time was openness
to joining, first of all, European structures. What about Putins saying that low oil prices and
sanctions would help revitalize the Russian economy? Well, if high oil prices represented a
threat to the economy, then why wasnt that acknowledged ten years ago? What the hell was he
doing for all those years? And if he recognizes that now, its too late

Vedomostis take:
http://www.vedomosti.ru/opinion/articles/2016/01/12/623631-putin-nachat-nulya

Vedomosti says the interview was another signal to the WestRussia wants peace. The West
has to acknowledge the injustice of its approach to Russia and remove sanctions, which were a
mistake (but dont really have too much influence on the Russian economy, according to VVP).
IN12Jan16_0001.docx

Putin wants to start with a clean slate, to forget recent disagreements. After all, everyone is
guilty, though Russia least of all. Both VVPs address to the Federal Assembly and his year-end
press conference were devoted more than previously to foreign policy issues
Putin may have said that sanctions and low oil prices could end up helping Russias economy,
but its likely that vlast recognizes that low oil prices create a more serious situation for the
economy that officials let on earlier. Russia has not succeeded in getting support in Asia.
The Kremlin wants to reach agreement with the West on easing sanctions and new principles of
cooperation while the economic and political situation is still not critical, says politilog Nikolay
Petrov. Putin is hinting that Russias appetites are less than those of the Stalin-era or Brezhnev-
era USSR and that a new Yalta will suit everyone.Vedomosti concludes that the West will
not go for a division of the world, but dialogue with Putin will continue

Nezavisimaya GazetaRussia sees itself surrounded by enemies:

http://www.ng.ru/editorial/2016-01-12/2_red.html

Thats what the interview showedthis as Putin just recently (before the New Year) approved a
new national security strategy, one that stresses building up defense and national accord, raising
living standards and the economys competitiveness, as well as securing for Russia status as one
of the worlds leading great powersThe previous national strategy was adopted under
Medvedev in 2009 and was supposed to be in effect to 2020. The fact that a new strategy was
formulated indicates that the Kremlin sees the security situation changingthere are new threats
and that means there must be a new approach.
In the 40 pages of the national strategy document, there are 17 points related to defense
capability and security; 12 to economics; 7 to culture; 5 to living standards and health care; 4 on
education, ecology, and science; and 20 points touching on strategic stability and Russias
relations with the outside world.
If earlier, the emphasis was cooperation with the G-8 (Russian participation was suspended after
the annexation of Crimea), the new document stresses relations with BRICS, RIK (Russia-India-
China), the Shanghai organization, the Asia-Pacific Economic Community, and the G-20, as well
as with CIS countries, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and the creation of a non-block mechanism
for stability in the Asia-Pacific region. These aims were not mentioned in the previous strategy
document.
Basic threats to Russian security include Ukraine (an area of instability on Russias borders),
instability caused in part by EU and US support for a state coup in Kiev
The new strategy document is the most anti-Western of any adopted since 1997. NATO and the
EU are slammed for not providing for European security (the migrant crisis), the rise of ISIS
connected with double standards on terrorismBut despite all this and the anti-missile system,
IN12Jan16_0001.docx

too, the document says that Moscow does not intend to give up on full-fledged partnership
with Washington.
The tone of the new document is more defensive-aggressive than past national strategies. It
dies not rule out using military force if other means are not successful
Moskovskiy Komsomolets says that the Kremlin.ru web site altered the text of the Bild interview
http://www.mk.ru/politics/2016/01/12/kreml-otredaktiroval-intervyu-putina-bild-lishiv-ego-ostrykh-
voprosov.html

MK compares the German to the Russian version on the Kremlin.ru web site and concludes that
in the German, the questions Bild formulated were sharper in tone than the complimentary
tone of the Russian version. An example is given from the first exchangethe kremlin.ru
version had the Bild question on the end of the Cold War and all the problems that followed
ending with What did we do wrong? But the German shows no indication that the German
journalist had the Europeans as doing anything wrong. The journalist ended by commenting on
how bad mutual relations were even after the Cold War:

, , ,
.

: 25-
.
, .
?.
:

?

When Putin was asked about the Crimea, he replied What do you mean by Crimea?, and the
Russian of the journalists reply to Putin was a change of borders. The German was more
expansivethe journalist mentioned a unilateral change of borders and that respect for
national borders was what the European system was based on:

? ,
: ,
.

In the segment on fulfilling the Minsk agreements, kremlin.ru left out the comment from Bild
that shots were still being fired in Eastern Ukraine, shots fired by the forces of the central
government and separatists supported by Russia:
,
.
IN12Jan16_0001.docx

In the second part of the interview (See below), the kremlin.ru site left out a comment about
Russian membership in the G-8 being suspendedthe European community had practically
placed Russia outside the law:
.

The Russian version had a question to Putin about whether Putin was prepared to take steps to
make the G-7 a G-8 again:
,
?

The German had Bild commenting that Assad had killed thousands, something that was
indisputable. The Russian was milderAssad had delivered blows against his own population:

There are other examples given of alterations from German to Russian, but MK ends by saying
just which is the closest is hard to determine, since the Bild web site has a video in which only
Putins answers are shown
Comment: With the give and take between Putin and the Bild journalists, that seems like a
confusing way to present the video.

Part II of Putins Bild interview (Russia a regional power?; Russia and the G-8; Russia-NATO;
Russia-Turkey/Su-24; Russias air campaign in Syria; On Assad; a Libya scenario in Syria?;
Constitutional reform and early elections in Syria; Assads fate; ISIS; Saudi Arabia-Iran)
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51155

Question: Mr President, will you take any steps to re-establish the G7 format
as the G8?
And another question: what did you think when the US President said that Russia
is a regional power?

Vladimir Putin: I did not think anything in particular. Every individual, all the more
so the President of the United States, is entitled to his or her own opinion
on anything, on partners and on other countries. That is his own opinion,
as I also know his opinion that the American nation, the United States is unique.
I cannot agree with either of those opinions.
IN12Jan16_0001.docx

Let me clarify a few things about Russia. First, we do not claim the role
of a superpower. This role is very costly and it is meaningless. Our economy is
fifth or sixth in the world in terms of volume. It may have moved down to a lower
place at present taking into account the economic difficulties I have mentioned
but we are confident that we have very good development prospects
and potential. We occupy, roughly, the sixth place in the world in terms
of purchasing power parity.
If we say that Russia is a regional power, we should first determine what region
we are referring to. Look at the map and ask: What is it, is it part of Europe?
Or is it part of the eastern region, bordering on Japan and the United States, if
we mean Alaska and China? Or is it part of Asia? Or perhaps the southern
region? Or look at the north. Essentially, in the north we border on Canada
across the Arctic Ocean. Or in the south? Where is it? What region are we
speaking about? I think that speculations about other countries, an attempt
to speak disrespectfully about other countries is an attempt to prove ones
exceptionalism by contrast. In my view, that is a misguided position.

Question: And what about the G8?

Vladimir Putin: We planned to host the G8 summit in 2014. I think Russia never
became a full-fledged G8 member, since there were always separate
negotiations between foreign ministers of the other seven countries. I would not
say that this mechanism is useless. Meetings, discussions, seeking solutions
together are always beneficial.
I believe that Russias presence was useful, since it provided an alternative view
on some issues under discussion. We examine pretty much the same issues
within the G20, APEC in the East and within BRICS. We were ready to host
the G8 summit in 2014. It was not us who did not go somewhere; other countries
did not come to Russia. If our counterparts decide to come for a visit, they will be
most welcome, but we have not booked any tickets yet.

Question: What do you think about the possibility of re-establishing cooperation,

if not within the G8, then, perhaps, with NATO? There was the Russia-NATO
IN12Jan16_0001.docx

Council after all, and you conducted joint military exercises. Is there a chance
to re-establish such cooperation or should we forego the prospect altogether?

Vladimir Putin: At the outset, the idea of creating the Council was actively
supported, if not initiated, by Mr Berlusconi, the former Prime Minister of Italy,
and I believe it was in Italy that we signed the document on establishing
the Russia-NATO Council. It was not Russia that cut off cooperation through
the G8 or the Russia-NATO Council. We are willing to interact with everyone,
once there is a matter for common discussion. We think that there is one, but
a relationship can be happy only when the feeling is mutual. If we are not
welcome as partners, that is fine with us then.

Question: Regrettably, at the moment the Russia-NATO relations are

at the stage of confrontation, rather than cooperation. Turkish military forces
have downed a Russian aircraft, and Russian and Turkish warships are reported
to come dangerously close to one another all the more often. Do you think that
such developments may at a certain point cause an escalation from a cold war
to actual hostilities?

Vladimir Putin: Turkey is a NATO member. However, the problems that have
emerged have nothing to do with Turkeys NATO membership; nobody has
attacked Turkey. Instead of trying to provide us with an explanation for the war
crime they committed, that is, for downing our fighter jet that was targeting
terrorists, the Turkish government rushed to NATO headquarters seeking
protection, which looks quite odd and, in my view, humiliating for Turkey.
I repeat, NATO has to protect its members from attack, but nobody has attacked
Turkey. If Turkey has vested interests elsewhere in the world, in the adjacent
countries, does it mean that NATO must protect and secure these interests?
Does it mean that Germany, as a NATO member, must help Turkey to expand
into neighbouring territories?
I hope that such incidents will not cause large-scale hostilities. Of course, we all
realise that Russia, once under threat, would defend its security interests by all
available means at its disposal, should such threats against Russia arise.
IN12Jan16_0001.docx

Question: Now lets turn to Syria, if you do not mind.

We say that we are tackling common challenges there. This is the joint fight
against ISIS in Iraq and Syria. However, some people in the West say that
Russian military forces in Syria are fighting the anti-Assad rebels, rather than
ISIS. What would be your response to the allegations that Russia is hitting
the wrong targets?
Vladimir Putin: They are telling lies. Look, the videos that support this version
appeared before our pilots even started to carry out strikes against terrorists.
This can be corroborated. However, those who criticise us prefer to ignore it.
American pilots hit the Doctors Without Borders hospital in Kunduz, Afghanistan,
by mistake, I am sure. There were casualties and fatalities among civilians
and doctors. Western media outlets have attempted to hush this up, to drop
the subject and have a very short memory span when it comes to such things.
They mentioned it a couple of times and put it on ice. And those few mentions
were only due to foreign citizens from the Doctors Without Borders present there.
Who now remembers the wiped out wedding parties? Over 100 people were
killed with a single strike.
Yet this phony evidence about our pilots reportedly striking civilian targets keeps
circulating. If we tag the live pipelines that consist of thousands of petrol and oil
tankers as civilian targets, than, indeed, one might believe that our pilots are
bombing these targets, but everyone is bombing them, including the Americans,
the French and everyone else.

Question: However, it is clear that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is carrying

out strikes against his own population. Can we say that al-Assad is your ally?

Vladimir Putin: You know, this is a rather subtle issue. I think that President al-
Assad has made many mistakes in the course of the Syrian conflict. However,
dont we all realise full well that this conflict would never have escalated to such
a degree if it had not been supported from abroad through supplying money,
weapons and fighters? Tragically, it is civilians who suffer in such conflicts.
IN12Jan16_0001.docx

But who is responsible for that? Is it the government, which seeks to secure its
sovereignty and fights these anti-constitutional actions, or those who have
masterminded the anti-government insurgency?
Regarding your question if al-Assad is an ally or not and our goals in Syria. I can
tell you precisely what we do not want to happen: we do not want the Libyan
or Iraqi scenario to be repeated in Syria. I have to give due credit to Egyptian
President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, and I told him this myself, because had he not
taken on the responsibility, demonstrated fortitude and brought the country under
control, then we might have witnessed the Libyan scenario in Egypt. In my view,
no effort should be spared in strengthening legitimate governments
in the regions countries. That also applies to Syria. Emerging state institutions
in Iraq and in Libya must be revived and strengthened. Situations in Somalia
and other countries must be stabilised. State authority in Afghanistan must be
reinforced. However, it does not mean that everything should be left as is.
Indeed, this new stability would underpin political reforms.
As far as Syria is concerned, I think that we should work towards a constitutional
reform. It is a complicated process. Then, early presidential and parliamentary
elections should be held, based on the new Constitution. It is the Syrian people
themselves who must decide who and how should run their country. This is
the only way to achieve stability and security, to create conditions for economic
growth and prosperity, so that people can live in their own homes, in their
homeland, rather than flee to Europe.

Question: But do you believe al-Assad is a legitimate leader if he allows

the destruction of his countrys population?

Vladimir Putin: It is not his goal to destroy his countrys population. He is fighting
those who rose up against him with deadly force. And if the civilians suffer, I think
that the primary responsibility for this is with those who fight against him with
deadly force as well as those who assist armed groups.
As I have already said, though, this does not mean that everything is all right out
there and that everyone is right. This is exactly why I believe political reforms are
IN12Jan16_0001.docx

needed so much there. The first step in that direction should be to develop
and adopt a new Constitution.

Question: If, contrary to expectations, al-Assad loses the elections, will you grant
him the possibility of asylum in your country?

Vladimir Putin: I think it is quite premature to discuss this. We granted asylum

to Mr Snowden, which was far more difficult than to do the same for Mr al-Assad.
First, the Syrian people should be given the opportunity to have their say.
I assure you, if this process is conducted democratically, then al-Assad will
probably not need to leave the country at all. And it is not important whether he
remains President or not.
You have been talking about our targets and means, and now you are talking
about al-Assad being our ally. Do you know that we support military operations
of the armed opposition that combats ISIS? Armed opposition against al-Assad
that is fighting ISIS. We coordinate our joint operations with them and support
their offensives by airstrikes in various sections of the frontline. This is hundreds,
thousands of armed people fighting ISIS. We support both the al-Assads army
and the armed opposition. Some of them have publicly declared this, others
prefer to remain silent, but the work is on-going.

Question: Finally, I would like to touch upon a topic that has never come up
before, that is the rift between Saudi Arabia and Iran, as if Syria was not enough.
Does it mean that this rift can lead us to a very grave conflict?

Vladimir Putin: It hampers the efforts to settle the Syrian crisis and the fight
against terrorism, as well as the process of halting the inflow if refugees
to Europe, that much is certain.
As for whether this will lead to a major regional clash, I do not know. I would
rather not talk or even think in these terms. We have very good relations with Iran
and our partnership with Saudi Arabia is stable.
Of course, we regret that these things happened there. But you have no death
penalty in your country. Despite a very hard period in the 1990searly 2000s,
IN12Jan16_0001.docx

when we were fighting terrorism in Russia, we abolished the death penalty.

And there is no death penalty in Russia at present. There are certain countries
that use the death penalty Saudi Arabia, the United States and some others.
We regret this has happened, especially given that the cleric had not been
fighting against Saudi Arabia with lethal force. Yet it is true that an embassy
attack is a totally unacceptable occurrence in the modern world. As far as I know,
the Iranian authorities have arrested several perpetrators of the assault. If our
participation in any form is needed, we are ready to do everything possible
to resolve the conflict as soon as possible.

Question: One last question, Mr President.

During the preparations for the Winter Olympics in Sochi, there was heavy
criticism in the West of democratic development and human rights situation
in Russia. Do you expect similar criticism to arise again during the preparations
for the 2018 FIFA World Cup?
I think the Russian language is more extensive than German. (Noting the long
translation of the question from German into Russian.)
Vladimir Putin: I would say the German language is more precise.
The Russian language is more diverse, more elegant. However, such genius
minds as, say, Goethe make the German language sound very elegant
and beautiful. One can feel its beauty only in German, and to be able to feel it
one needs to understand it.
As far as democracy is concerned, the ruling classes usually talk about freedom
to pull the wool over the eyes of those whom they govern. There is nothing new
about democracy in Russia. As we have already identified, democracy is the rule
of the people and the influence of the people over the authorities. We have
learned very well the lesson of one-party rule that of the Communist Party
(CPSU). Therefore, we made our choice long ago and we will continue
developing democratic institutions in our country. At present, 77 political parties
can take part in parliamentary elections in Russia. We have come back to direct
gubernatorial elections.
We are advancing the instruments of direct democracy, meaning various public
organisations, and will continue to do so. There can be no identical clichs
IN12Jan16_0001.docx

in democracy be it American, European (German), Russian or Indian. Do you

know that twice in American history the President was elected by the majority
of delegates representing the minority of voters? Does it mean the absence
of democracy? Of course not. But it is not the only or the most important
problem. One of the European leaders once told me: In the United States it is
impossible to run for presidency without a few billion dollars in your pocket.
Now, regarding the parliamentary system of democracy.
I am repeatedly asked: How long have you been President? But
in a parliamentary democracy, the person number one is the Prime Minister, who
can Head the Government an unlimited number of times.
We have returned to direct elections of regional heads. In some countries,
however, heads of regions are appointed by the central government. I am not
sure, I may be wrong, it is probably better to leave it out or to double-check it,
but, as far as I know, that is the case in India.
We still have a number of problems to solve before people feel confident that
they have real influence over the authorities and that the authorities respond
to their demands. We are going to work towards improving our instruments.
As for the attempts to use sport in political rifts and political competition, I believe
that is a huge mistake. That is what stupid people do. If problems arise,
particularly at the interstate level, sport, art, music, ballet and opera are the very
means that should bring people closer together rather than divide them. It is vital
to foster this role of art and sport rather than belittle and suppress it.

Question: Thank you, Mr President, for a wonderful and very detailed

conversation.

Comment: The MK piece above had the German as simply Thanks for the interview.

Will Russia run out of money with $30/barrel oil? (R100/dollar?)

See yesterdays notes for a bit on still falling oil prices.

http://www.intellinews.com/will-russia-run-out-of-money-with-30-oil-
88243/?inf_contact_key=149d10ee35e3e57684e07b3a2644ab51618c5a53a58fe417f3dfafa673d39830
IN12Jan16_0001.docx

Oil prices crashed again in the first week of January, falling to an 11-year low of about $32 per barrel. The
Russian federal budget was already going to struggle under the official $50 oil price assumption, and finish
this year with a forecast 3% deficit. But if oil prices stay this low, won't Russia's budget balloon and burn up
all the Kremlin's lauded reserve funds in the process?

The World Bank reiterated its 0.7% contraction of GDP in 2016 on January 9 as economic black clouds rapidly
gathered in the first week of the New Year. That stands against the Russian Ministry of Finance's official
forecast of 0.7% growth, if average oil prices come in at $50 at the end of this year.

"The global economy will need to adapt to a new period of more modest growth in large emerging markets,
characterized by lower commodity prices and diminished flows of trade and capital," World Bank Senior Vice
President and Chief Economist Kaushik Basu said in a report titled "Global Economic Prospects in 2016:
Spillovers amid Weak Growth."

With the renewed tumble in oil prices that assumption of oil at $50 is looking shakier than ever. If oil falls to
an average of $40 then even the Ministry of Finance doesn't expect any economic growth this year, but a
contraction of 1.5% instead. And if oil falls to an average of $30 the contraction would be 2.4%, according to
analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, which is in the middle of the range for most investment banks'
predictions.

All said and done, a 1-3% economic contraction would be unpleasant but manageable as Russians have built
up a large income buffer over the years as wages were running well ahead of inflation for most of the last
decade and corporates have amassed their own war chests of cash. The more difficult problem will be
financing the federal budget deficit.

The 2016 budget assumes a deficit of 3% of GDP, or RUB1.7 trillion ($28.32bn), a level that President Vladimir
Putin has declared a "red line". However, this target will almost certainly be missed even if oil does average
$50, as the state will have to bail out its de facto development bank VEB, which needs a RUB1.2 trillion
($20bn) injection of fresh capital to deal with bad loans incurred from cases like underwriting investments for
the Sochi Olympics.

And even counting VEB's bail-out (the government is still trying to find a way to give it money that won't
come out of the public purse) the Ministry of Finance has already warned that the current budget assumption
with $50 oil may be too optimistic: according Finance Minister Anton Siluanov's calculations, revenues could
be RUB750bn less than the forecast in the current official budget, which would lead to a deficit of 4.1% of
GDP.

And it all gets worse as the average oil price in 2016 sinks: with oil at $40 the deficit becomes 5.2% (again
without counting in the VEB cost), or a revenue shortfall of RUB4.1 trillion.

Wheres the cash?

So it looks very likely that the government will have to find between RUB1.7 trillion and RUB4.1 trillion to
fund the deficit (and add RUB1.2 trillion for VEB and if possibly another RUB2.5 trillion if the state gives the
same support to the banking sector if gave in 2015).
IN12Jan16_0001.docx

Where is this money going to come from? The state is reluctant to borrow at home due to high interest rates
(the budget has RUB300bn of borrowing against the RUB 1 trillion in "normal" years) and can't borrow
internationally thanks to the West's financial sanctions (the budget assumes $1.5bn of international
borrowing, presumably from the Chinese).

The only resource left are the two reserve funds: the Reserve Fund that is specifically meant for plugging
budget deficits in hard times; and the National Welfare Fund that is earmarked for pension payments in the
future.

At the end of 2015, the funds held RUB3.4 trillion and RUB4.6 trillion respectively. The state has already said
it will spend at least RUB2.5 trillion from the Reserve Fund to supplement the 2016 budget spending, which
leaves a reserve of RUB1.1 trillion. But Siluanov already admitted in December that he expects the Reserve
Fund to be fully exhausted by the end of 2016.

If oil ends 2016 at $50 then the state will scrape through the year with RUB1 trillion in reserve, but if oil falls
to $40 then there will still be at least a RUB2 trillion short fall (not counting the extra costs). The temptation
to tap the National Welfare Fund will almost certainly become overwhelming and at least half of that fund, if
not all of it, could be burnt up too. The bottom line is Russia can get through 2016 even with oil at $40 with
the resources it has in hand but it would go into 2017 flying on fumes.

Austerity Russian style

The financial headaches the government is facing are made much worse by the political calendar. There are
parliamentary elections slated for this autumn and crucial presidential elections in 2018 where Putin can
stand for the last time (under the rules of the current constitution). If anything the government will want to
increase spending, not cut it.

But that will be hard. Russia's regions are already under pressure to up spending as part of the 2012 'May
decrees'. But unlike the centre they don't have buckets of petrodollar revenues flooding into their coffers and
are already under severe financial pressure, which could come to a head in 2018 according to international
ratings agency Standard & Poor's (S&P).

Social spending already accounts for a quarter (27.6%) of expenditure, which so far has largely remained
untouched as much of this goes to the blue collar workers that are Putin's core constituents. The government
could make entitlements more difficult to get, but that would represent a big political risk and test exactly
how fragile Putin's sky-high popularity really is, as some have suggested.

Pensioners were the recipients of significant budget largess in the 2012 elections, but this time round they
have already been sacrificed after index rate for pension hikes were cut to 4%, way below inflation.

Cutting military spending is the most obvious and least painful cut the state will make and will almost
certainly not happen. Indeed, during the budget debates the Ministry of Finance pushed hard to curtain
military spending and was promptly slapped down.
IN12Jan16_0001.docx

Putin has made it crystal clear that the modernisation of the armed forces is sacrosanct and is willing to lay
the economy on the sacrificial alter to his geopolitical goals whatever those may be. A third of budget
expenditure (32%) will go to the military with very few cuts (and $1.2bn for the Syria campaign).

Increasingly the government seems to be grasping at straws to fill the gap. In December, Siluanov announced
an ambitious RUB1 trillion privatisation programme for 2016 with some big sexy names on the mooted list,
including stakes in oil major Rosneft, shipping giant Sovkomflot and oil minor Rosen. Deputy Finance Minister
Alexei Moisseev told investors in London that Sovkomflot will be sold "come what may". But the privatisation
plan is exactly the same one that was floated in the summer of 2008 at the end of the boom years, which
came to nothing then before the global crisis broke. Even if the privatisation target was hit, that could still
leave the state RUB1 trillion short to close the budget deficit.

The most likely scenario for 2016 is that the Kremlin runs down its reserves and lets more ruble devaluation
take the rest of the strain. Despite all its problems, Russia is still running a trade and current account surplus
with the latter bringing in a profit of about $60bn in hard currency in 2015. As the government has significant
revenues in dollars but expenditures in unadjusted rubles, letting the value of the ruble slide absorbs much of
the oil price shock. Analysts estimate the ruble will end 2016 at about RUB80-85 to the dollar from the
current RUB70, but if oil prices continue to fall then RUB100 is not impossible.

Gazeta.ru (http://www.gazeta.ru/business/2016/01/08/8003351.shtml) reports talk of $20/barrel,

while some experts are even saying $15/barrel is possibleOil plummeting to $25 or $15/barrel
would cause a lot of shocks in the Russian economycurrency income would fall, as would the
ruble exchange rate; imports would grow more expensive; inflation rates would increaseand
the Central Bank would respond with higher interest rates; the Finance Ministry would cut
expenditures and investment would fall; real incomes would decline further as would consumer
demand along with it. At $15-$25/barrel, the ruble would inevitably fall to R100/dollar.

Nevertheless, there could be serious fluctuations of oil priceswar in the Middle East and North
Africa might mean bombed oil pipelines and ports, sunken tankers and moreso oil at
$100/barrel again is not impossible. But what Russia needs most of all is stable oil prices, prices
that will stabilize inflation and the ruble exchange rate

Chayka: The Prosecutors office will not Weaken its grip

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russian-prosecutor-generals-office-wont-weaken-
grip-after-navalnys-film/555555.html

Russia's Prosecutor General Yury Chaika gave an interview to the state-run Rossiiskaya
Gazeta newspaper Tuesday and said his office wouldn't weaken its grip because of
information attacks on it, referring to the investigative film released by Alexei Navalny's
Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK), that alleged Chaika's family was involved in various
illegal activities.
IN12Jan16_0001.docx

Those who are making these information attacks hope that the Prosecutor General's Office
will weaken its grip It won't. We will not change the priorities of our work, no matter who
tries to force us to do it, he said.

Chaika added that the office is currently battling those who are trying to elicit legal chaos
in the country. Trust me, we have the leverage to face any challenges, he said.

After FBK released the Chaika film, the Prosecutor General claimed that British-American
investor Bill Browder and the U.S. secret services were behind the film and said opposition
leader Navalny played a humble role in this story. See the 14 and 18 December notes.

Navalny has filed several lawsuits in different Moscow courts, accusing Chaika of
defamation, but to no avail so far all of the courts have declined to process the suits.

Heres a link to the Chayka interview with Ros Gaz: http://www.rg.ru/2016/01/12/chajka.html

Chayka goes on about the fight against corruptionhow many cases, cases against officials,
including governors, Russias efforts to take part in international anti-corruption agreements and
so on. He also talks about combatting terrorism, including shutting down terrorism-connected
web sites. In spite of sanctions, the Prosecutors office continues to take part in international
cooperative efforts. There are problems, barriers to overcome, but Russia remains at work,
trying to return money made through criminal means and shipped overseas.

Heres the part on an information attack and not weakening the grip of the Prosecutors
office referred to above:

,
? ,
- ?

: , ,
, " ",
. . ,
. , ,
, .

, ,
. ,
.

Theres more stuff on closing down foreign NGOs, nothing newOn Navalniys lawsuits:
IN12Jan16_0001.docx

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/moscow-court-refuses-navalnys-chaika-
lawsuit/555570.html Moscow's Presnensky district court has declined to process Russian
opposition leader Alexei Navalny's lawsuit against Prosecutor General Yury Chaika and the
opposition-leaning Echo Moskvy radio station, the RBC news agency reported Tuesday,
citing court spokesperson Nina Yurkova.

This lawsuit is one of many attempts that Navalny has made to sue Chaika for defamation
last year five Moscow district courts refused to register his lawsuits, giving various
reasons for their refusals.

On Dec. 1, Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation released Chaika, an investigative film

that accused Chaika's family members, including his two sons, of being involved in shady
business deals and various illegal activities.

Two weeks later Chaika accused a British-American investor William Browder and the U.S.
secret services of being behind the film and claimed Navalny played a humble role in this
story.

I have no doubt that this full-of-lies film was ordered by Bill Browder [head of the Hermitage
Capital investment fund], and secret services behind him, Chaika was quoted as saying in
a letter published by the Kommersant newspaper on Dec. 14.

After three Moscow courts declined to process Navalny's suits, he decided to sue media
outlets that had published Chaika's letter the Kommersant and Vedomosti newspapers,
the Ekho Moskvy radio station, the Slon news website, the RBC news agency and the
Dozhd TV channel along with the Prosecutor General, in order to have the suits
processed by courts.

I apologize to the respectable outlets in advance for the inconvenience, unfortunately, we

have to make them official co-defendants [in these suits] in order for our courts to finally
accept the suits, Navalny wrote on his blog on Dec. 29.

Solovey says Ukraine is right not to buy Russian gas

Its a buyers market and Ukraine can get gas cheaper in Europe:
http://vk.com/id244477574?w=wall244477574_14227%2Fall
 From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 12/14/201512:00:24AM
To: RobertOtto<acrotto@us-state.osis.gov>
Subject: 2ndCrisisWave?Vedomostion2016intheOffing

http://www.vedomosti.ru/economics/articles/2015/12/14/620769-vtoraya-volna-krizisa-shokovie-
stsenarii-2016-god-mogut-stat-bazovimi

:2016

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 From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 12/13/201511:59:27PM
To: DanielRussell<dan.55.russell@gmail.com>
Subject: HolidayGreetings,Dan(the2ndwaveofthecrisis)

http://www.vedomosti.ru/economics/articles/2015/12/14/620769-vtoraya-volna-krizisa-shokovie-stsenarii-2016-god-mogut-
stat-bazovimi

:2016

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 From: MartinDewhirst<martin.dewhirst@googlemail.com>
Senttime: 10/01/201503:42:14PM
To: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Re:FW:FPIOvernightBrief:October1,2015[RelevanttoUAandRegion].......Fwd:FPSituationReport[RelevanttoUAand
Subject:
Region].....FORBES/PAULRG:as-russia-launches-air-strikes-in-syria-obama-must-make-sure-we-dont-forget-ukraine........FPED/Meet...

I'msurprisedanddisappointedthatProf.Gregorydoesn'tstressthat
theUS(and,ideally,theEU)should/mustimposeadditionalsanctionson
Russiaintheimmediatefuture.IfObamahaddeclinedtomeetPutin,he
mightwellnothavebecomesoaggressiveinSyria,Ithink.Putin
thoughthecouldgetawaywithanotherinvasion.Maybehewasright.
M.

On01/10/201517:49,JohnBDunlopwrote:
>*From:*WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
>*Sent:*Thursday,October01,20159:35AM
>*To:*RomaHadzewyczrl
>*Subject:*Fwd:FPIOvernightBrief:October1,2015[RelevanttoUAand
>Region].......Fwd:FPSituationReport[RelevanttoUAand
>Region].....FORBES/PAULRG:
>as-russia-launches-air-strikes-in-syria-obama-must-make-sure-we-dont-forget-ukraine........FP
>ED/Meet...
>
>----------Forwardedmessage----------
>From:*paulroderickgregory*>
>Date:Thu,Oct1,2015at9:07AM
>Subject:Lobby
>To:WalterZaryckyj>
>
>Walter:
>
>IbelievePutin'sactionsinSyriacouldforceObamatocarryoutthe
>UkraineFreedomAct,asIargueinthisForbespiece.Canyougetthis
>pointtothosewhomighthavesomelobbyingpower?
>
>http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2015/09/30/as-russia-launches-air-strikes-in-syr
ia-obama-must-make-sure-we-dont-forget-ukraine/
>
>----------Forwardedmessage----------
>From:*ForeignPolicyInitiative*>
>Date:Thu,Oct1,2015at7:33AM
>Subject:FPIOvernightBrief:October1,2015
>To:Walter>
>
>TheForeignPolicyInitiative
>
>
>FollowandSupportFPI
>
>FollowusonFacebook
>Follow
>usonTwitter
>Follow
>usonYouTube
>See
>ourphotosonFlickr
>Subscribe
>toourRSSfeed.
>Donate
>toFPI
>
>
>
>FPIOvernightBrief
>
>October1,2015
>
>*TableofContents*
>MiddleEast/NorthAfrica<#150242d2da59e359_150241b5862a1754_15024>,
>Asia<#150242d2da59e359_150241b5862a1754_15024>,Security
><#150242d2da59e359_150241b5862a1754_15024>,Russia/Europe
><#150242d2da59e359_150241b5862a1754_15024>,Americas
><#150242d2da59e359_150241b5862a1754_15024>,Africa
><#150242d2da59e359_150241b5862a1754_15024>,ObamaAdministration
><#150242d2da59e359_150241b5862a1754_15024>,DemocracyandHumanRights
><#150242d2da59e359_150241b5862a1754_15024>,Events
><#150242d2da59e359_150241b5862a1754_15024>
>
>
>Announcements
>
>The2015FPIForum
>will
>beheldattheNewseuminWashington,DCtoday.
>
>ApplicationsforFPI's2015NewYorkLeadersProgram
>are
>duetomorrow.
>
>Besuretoencourageyourcolleaguestosignup
>for
>theFPIOvernightBrief.
>
>Ifyousupportourmissionandwork,pleaseconsidermakinga
>tax-deductibledonation
>to
>FPItoday.
>
>ReadthenewbriefingbooksfromFPI
>and
>theJohnHayInitiative
>.
>
>ISWispublishingregularupdatesonthesituationinIraqandSyria
>,
>andAEI'sCriticalThreatsProjectisdoingsofortheYemen
>conflict.
>
>
>
>
>TheMust-Reads
>
>Russians
>strike
>targetsinSyria,butnotinISISareas
>
>Administration
>scrambles
>asRussiaseizesinitiativeinSyria
>
>Rogin
>:
>RussiarisksbeingprosecutedforSyriaswarcrimes
>
>Boot,Pregent
>:
>HowObamacouldsalvagehisISISstrategy
>
>FPIsAdesnik,Kahn
>:
>PreventingIranfromexploitingthenucleardeal
>
>Abbas
>:
>PalestiniansnolongerboundbyOslo,Abrams
>responds
>
>Kunduz
>won
>afteryears-longstrategy,US
>struggles
>tohelpAfghans
>
>MackenzieEaglen
>:
>ThetopchangesinthenewNDAA
>
>FPIsEllenBork
>:
>IgnoringhumanrightsinAzerbaijan
>
>
>MiddleEast/NorthAfrica
>
>*Syria*
>
>RussianaircraftcarriedoutabombingattackagainstSyrianopposition
>fightersonWednesday,includingatleastonegrouptrainedbythe
>C.I.A.,elicitingangryprotestsfromAmericanofficialsandplunging
>thecomplexsectarianwarthereintodangerousnewterritory.NewYork
>Times
>
>
>BlindsidedbytheunexpectedswiftnessofRussiasairattacksinSyria,
>theObamaadministrationscrambledWednesdaytoretakethediplomatic
>andmilitaryinitiatives,sayingthatitwouldnotbebulliedinto
>supportingPresidentBasharal-Assadandthatitwasaboutto
>significantlyexpanditsownSyrianairoperations.WashingtonPost
>
>
>TheU.S.andRussiahaveagreedonspecificstepsthatcouldnudge
>forwardaSyrianpoliticalprocess,U.S.SecretaryofStateJohnKerry
>saidWednesday.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)
>
>
>Russianofficialsvehementlydefendedthecountrysairstrikecampaign
>inSyriaThursday,denyingreportsofciviliandeathsandWestern
>accusationsthatthecountrywastargetingU.S.-backedrebelsinsteadof
>theIslamicState.WashingtonPost
>
>
>WhenRussiadeclareditwouldstarthittingtheIslamicStateinSyria,
>opponentsofPresidentBasharal-Assadwereimmediatelyconcernedthat
>itwouldtargetthemaswellinsurgentswhorebelledlongbeforethe
>IslamicState,alsocalledISISorISIL,existedinitscurrentform.
>ButeventheyweretakenabackonWednesdaywhenRussiasveryfirst
>airstrikesinSyriaappearedtotargetareaswheretheIslamicStatehas
>noknownpresence,includingsomethathavesymbolicresonanceas
>strongholdsoftheearly,locallybasedoppositionthatsprangupamong
>armydefectors.NewYorkTimes
>
>
>TherushofmigrantsintoEurope,combinedwiththeContinentsfear
>thatIslamicStatefightersmaycrossporousborderstocarryout
>attacks,hasstirrednewurgencyamongWesternleaderstoaddressthe
>warinSyriaandpushharderforanendtoit.NewYorkTimes
>
>
>Francehasopenedtheworldsfirstcriminalinquiryintotortureunder
>PresidentBasharal-AssadofSyria,officialsandrightsadvocatessaid
>Wednesday,anindirectrebuketoRussiaanditseffortstorehabilitate
>Mr.Assadaspartofaninternationalanti-Islamistcoalition.New
>YorkTimes
>
>
>TheU.S.forcesbombingIslamicStatetargetsinSyriawillnotyieldto
>Russianjets,DefenseSecretaryAshCartersaidWednesday.Healso
>confirmedthatRussiasfirststrikesonWednesdaywerenotinareas
>wheretheIslamicStateoperatesandthatraisestheriskofcollision
>betweenRussianandcoalitionforces.DefenseOne
>
>
>FouryearsintoSyria'scivilwarandmorethanayearintoaU.S.-led
>bombingcampaignagainsttheIslamicStateterroristgroup,theU.S.
>militarynowfacesanew,potentiallyfarmoredangerousprospect:
>backingtheoppositesideoftheRussianAirForce.-Politico
>
>
>[W]ithRussianowsharingintelligencewiththeIraqis,Syrians,and
>IraniansfromanewlyformedoperationscenterinBaghdad,Washington
>andMoscowmustresolvelargerdividesoverthefutureofSyrian
>PresidentBasharal-AssadandtheflailingfightagainsttheIslamic
>StateinIraqandSyria.ForeignPolicy
>
>
>MittRomney,2012GOPpresidentialcandidateandformerMassachusetts
>governer,slammedPresidentObamaonhishandlingofthecrisisin
>Syria.TheHill
>
>
>Sen.JohnMcCain(R-Ariz.)slammedtheObamaadministrationon
>Wednesday,suggestingtheyaretoblameforRussia'sincreasedmilitary
>presenceinSyria.TheHillsFloorAction
>
>
>Sen.BobCorker(R-Tenn.)isinvitingSecretaryofStateJohnKerryto
>testifybeforetheForeignRelationsCommitteeovertheadministration's
>policyinSyria,asRussiabeginsacampaignofairstrikesinthe
>country.TheHillsFloorAction
>
>
>JoshRoginreports:NowthattheRussiangovernmentisopenlyaidingthe
>Syrianarmy,RussianofficialsallthewayuptoPresidentVladimir
>Putincouldbeprosecutedforabettingwarcrimes,accordingtoformer
>U.S.officialsandinternationallawexperts.BloombergView
>
>
>*Iran*
>
>GrowingspeculationthatJohnKerrywillreceiveaNobelPeacePrizefor
>finalizingtheIraniannucleardealisgeneratingrenewedcriticismof
>hiscloserelationshipwiththeIranianforeignminister,JavadZarif,a
>keypublicfaceforthetheocraticregimewhoisrumoredtobea
>probableco-recipientwithKerry.WashingtonFreeBeacon
>
>
>AgroupofRepublicansenatorsarepushingtoblockreliefofIran's
>sanctionsuntilitpaysbillionsinterrorismfinesamovethatcould
>potentiallyunderminePresidentObama'sIrannucleardeal.TheHills
>FloorAction
>
>
>Sen.TedCruzwantstheStateDepartmenttoclassifyaneliteIranian
>militaryforceasaterroristorganization.TheHillsFloorAction
>
>
>KennethStethem,aformerNavySEALandthebrotherofanAmerican
>victimofIranianterrorism,calledonPresidentObamatosupportabill
>thatwouldcompelIrantopaythe$43.5billionitowestovictimsof
>terrorismbeforereceivingsanctionsrelief.WashingtonFreeBeacon
>
>
>FPIPolicyDirectorDavidAdesnikandSeniorPolicyAnalystTzviKahn
>write:ThedebateoverthenucleardealhardlyendedwhenPresident
>ObamaheldtogetherenoughSenateDemocratstofilibusteraresolution
>ofdisapproval.Rather,thedebatewillnowfocusonpreventingIran
>fromextractingfurtherconcessionsandexploitingthedealsmany
>loopholes.Boththeopponentsofthedealanditsmanyreluctant
>supporterscannowcontinuetogethertheunfinishedworkofpreventing
>Iranfromdevelopinganuclearweapon.ForeignPolicyInitiative
>
>
>EmanueleOttolenghiwrites:Amoreaggressiveapproachtocounteringthe
>IRGCiscrucialtocompensateforthenuclearagreement'sshortcomings.
>Signingthenucleardealisbynomeanstheendofcounteringthe
>Guard'sambitionsinmanyways,itisjustthebeginning.TheHill
>
>
>*Iraq*
>
>KurdishforcessaidtheydroveIslamicStatemilitantsoutofvillages
>neartheoilcityofKirkukinnorthernIraqonWednesday,inan
>offensivebackedbyairstrikesfromtheU.S.-ledcoalition.-Reuters
>
>
>EliLakereports:WhentheIslamicStatein2014beganitsrampage
>throughoutIraq,manyofthedisplacedpeoplefoundasafehaveninthe
>Kurdistanprovincesinthenorth.Thatsafehavenisnowindanger.
>BloombergView
>
>
>Rep.AlceeHastings(D-FL)writes:Whilethegeo-politicalcomplexities
>thatexistintheregionareunquestionablydaunting,onethingis
>clear:thousandsofwomencurrentlyexperiencingthishorrific
>treatment,andthefewwhohavebeenluckyenoughtoescape,needthe
>supportoftheinternationalcommunity.RollCall
>
>
>*Turkey*
>
>TheAirForceisdeployingabout300airmentoDiyarbakirAirBasein
>Turkeytofind,protectandrescueanyU.S.orcoalitionpilotswhohave
>toejectoverIraqorSyria.MilitaryTimes
>
>
>AprominentTurkishjournalistwashospitalizedafteranattackby
>unknownassailantsoutsidehishome,hisnewspapersaidonThursday,in
>thelatestsignofdeterioratingconditionsforthemediaunder
>PresidentTayyipErdogan.-Reuters
>
>
>Editorial:Consideringthepotentialtodisruptthewaragainstthe
>IslamicState,theObamaadministrationhasreactedmildlytoMr.
>Erdoganscampaign.AStateDepartmentspokesmanhasbeencriticalof
>theattacksonthemedia,sayingthequalityofTurkeysdemocracy
>matterstous.Healsosaidtheadministrationistalkingtothe
>TurkishgovernmentaboutU.S.supportfortheKurdishforcesinSyria.
>GiventheslimchancesthatMr.Erdoganwillrespondreasonably,
>WashingtoncanonlyhopethatTurkishvotersrebuffhimagain.
>WashingtonPost
>
>
>ReturntoTop<#150242d2da59e359_150241b5862a1754_15024>
>
>------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>*Asia*
>
>*Afghanistan*
>
>Kunduzresidentsandprovincialofficialssaidthecityremainedin
>TalibanhandsonThursday,despiteclaimsfromtheAfghangovernment
>thatithadretakenthecity.NewYorkTimes
>
>
>Inapotentialmajorshiftinpolicy,U.S.militarycommanderswantto
>keepatleastafewthousandAmericantroopsinAfghanistanbeyond2016,
>citingafragilesecuritysituationhighlightedbytheTaliban'scapture
>ofthenortherncityofKunduzthisweekaswellasrecentmilitant
>inroadsinthesouth.AssociatedPress
>
>
>U.S.andAfghanofficialspitchedinvestorsWednesdayondoingbusiness
>onmilitaryairfieldsthatNATOtroopswillwithdrawfromin
>Afghanistan,evenastheTalibaninsurgencyragesoninthecountry.
>AssociatedPress
>
>
>AhmedRashidwrites:TheTalibanscaptureofthenorthernAfghancity
>ofKunduzisacatastrophicblowtothebeleagueredgovernmentof
>PresidentAshrafGhani,whohasbeeninofficeforayear.Butithas
>muchwiderimplicationsfortheregion.FinancialTimes
>
>
>*South/CentralAsia*
>
>Pro-RussianpartieslooksettoretaintheirdominancewhenKyrgyzstan
>electsanewparliamentonSunday,buttheapparentstabilitymasks
>ethnictensionsandrisingIslamistradicalismintheformerSoviet
>republic.-Reuters
>
>
>NateSchennkanwrites:Thepost-2010constitutionwassupposedtocreate
>aparliamentaryrepublic,butthereareworryingsignsthatcurrent
>PresidentAlmazbekAtambaevistheonecallingtheshots.Kyrgyzstanmay
>notbeheadedtoadictatorship,butneitherisitbecomingmore
>democratic.Whathappened?ForeignPolicysDemocracyLab
>
>
>*China*
>
>Persistentheadwindsareholdingbacktheworldssecond-largesteconomy
>despitesomenascentsignsofimprovementinSeptemberforChinas
>strugglingmanufacturingsector.WallStreetJournal(subscription
>required)
>
>
>Chinahasquietlybegunconstructiononitsfirstdomesticaircraft
>carrierinthesamenorthernChineseshipyardthatrefurbishedthe
>PeoplesLiberationArmyNavyscurrentSoviet-eracarrier,USNINews
>haslearned.USNINews
>
>
>AnewexplosionrockedacountytowninsouthwesternGuangxiprovinceon
>Thursdaymorning,statemediareported,justhoursafterpolicearrested
>a33year-oldmanforpossibleinvolvementinaseriesofmailbombs
>thatkilledatleastsevenpeopleonWednesday.FinancialTimes
>
>
>Atleast50peoplediedinanattacklastmonthatacoalminein
>China'sfar-westernXinjiang,RadioFreeAsiareportedonThursday,asa
>visitingseniorleaderwarnedthatthesecuritysituationinthe
>violence-proneregionwas"veryserious".-Reuters
>
>
>*EastAsia*
>
>PrimeMinisterShinzoAbesnewcabinetcouldincludeafamiliar
>nameKoizumiasMr.Abeseekstoshoreuppublicsupportafteralong
>battleoversecuritybillsthissummerdentedhispopularity.WSJs
>JapanRealTime
>
>
>TaiwanPresidentMaYing-jeousaidonThursdaytheislandwasnotready
>todiscussunificationwithChina,sendingafirmmessagetoan
>increasinglyassertiveBeijingeagertoabsorbwhatitconsidersa
>renegadeprovince.-Reuters
>
>
>RichardFontainewrites:NowPyongyanghasannouncedanimminent
>satellitelaunchexpectedtodemonstrateitsballistic-missile
>capabilities.Armedwithnuclearandchemicalweapons,KimJongUnposes
>anenduringthreattotheSouth.ThishasmotivatedSouthKoreaand
>Chinarecentlytodevelopwarmerties,somethingthathasntgone
>unnoticedacrosstheregion.WallStreetJournal(subscription
>required)
>
>
>*SoutheastAsia*
>
>AwarofwordsisbeingfoughtinMyanmar,largelyoversocialmedia,
>betweennationalistBuddhistmonksandoppositionleaderAungSanSuu
>Kyi'sparty,highlightingdivisionsintherun-uptoageneralelection
>onNov.8.-Reuters
>
>
>TheruralheartlandofThailand'sdeposedleaderYingluckShinawatraand
>herexiledbillionairebrotherThaksinishurtingasaresultofthe
>militarygovernment'seconomicpolicies,stirringdiscontentandthe
>threatofprotests.-Reuters
>
>
>Editorial:EvenifMr.Najibstepsdown,tensionsarelikelytoincrease
>forsometime.AfterthePrimeMinistersackedhisdeputyandrival,
>MuhyiddinYassin,inJulyandpurgedotherreformersfromUMNO,Malay
>chauvinistshavemovedintopositionsofpower.Malaysiasminorities
>havegoodreasontofeartheywillagainbescapegoatsinthecountrys
>powerstruggles.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)
>
>
>*Trans-PacificPartnership*
>
>TradeministersfortheUnitedStatesand11otherPacificnations
>gatheredinAtlantaonWednesdaytotrytoreachagreementonthe
>largestregionalfree-tradepactever.Butknottydifferencespersist,
>andantitradeblastsfromAmericanpresidentialcandidateshavenot
>easedprospectsforanydeal.NewYorkTimes
>
>
>ReturntoTop<#150242d2da59e359_150241b5862a1754_15024>
>
>------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>*Security*
>
>*DefenseBudget*
>
>InadisputewithRepublicansoverhowdefensewouldbefunded,
>PresidentObamaplanstovetothe2016defensepolicybillduefora
>voteintheHouseonThursday,aWhiteHousespokesmantoldreporters
>Wednesday.DefenseNews
>
>
>Theconferenceversionofthedefensepolicybillfor2016putstheNavy
>onnoticeinmultiplehigh-priorityprograms.Inthreeareascarriers,
>theUCLASSdrone,andLCSSen.JohnMcCainstoughpositionsprevailed
>overtheHouse,albeitwithsomecompromisesaroundtheedges.Ina
>fourthTiconderoga-classcruisersitwasaHouseleader,Rep.Randy
>Forbes,whopushedharshermeasuresandgotapartialvictory.
>BreakingDefense
>
>
>TheNavywouldfaceshipdeliverydelays,slowdowninitsadvance
>procurementeffortsandmaybeblockedfromstartinganaircraftcarrier
>refuelingifashort-termcontinuingresolution,settostarttomorrow,
>isextendedpastDecember.USNINews
>
>
>Theannualdefensebillauthorizes$411milliontoupguntheArmys
>Strykervehicles.ThecompromisegoeswiththeSenateshigherfunding
>levels:$314millionformodificationworkand$97millionforR&D.
>Thatsaheadyincreasefromthe$0.00thepresidentsbudgetincluded
>fortheinitiative,whichemergedmid-yearasaresponsetoRussian
>aggressioninEurope.BreakingDefense
>
>
>U.S.lawmakersagainrejectedtheAirForcesproposaltoretirethe
>A-10ThunderboltIIattackaircraft,callingthedecisionmisguided.
>DODBuzz
>
>
>MackenzieEaglenwrites:Highlightsofthisyearsdefensepolicybill
>craftedbySenatorsJohnMcCain(R-AZ)andJackReed(D-RI)and
>RepresentativesMacThornberry(R-TX)andAdamSmith(D-WA)include
>significantbipartisanchangesinacquisitionreform,military
>retirement,USpolicyintheSouthChinaSea,andastrategyforthe
>eventualclosureofGuantanamoBay.BreakingDefense
>
>
>*Defense*
>
>Inwhatappearstobethefirstshotinapotentiallygroundbreaking
>changetodefensemergersandacquisitions,FrankKendall,the
>Pentagonstopacquisitionofficial,saidtheDepartmentofDefense
>planstoaskCongresstocreaterulesthatcouldhindermergersbetween
>primecontractors.DefenseNews
>
>
>TheUSAirForceisstillworkingthroughthedetailsofacontract
>awardforthenext-generationbomber,andexpectsanannouncementonthe
>finaldownselectinthenextfewmonths.DefenseNews
>
>
>LockheedMartinCorp.hasmorethan$700millionatstakeinconvincing
>theU.S.Navyitcanremedyflawsinnewunderwaterdronesintendedto
>huntdownminesfromasafedistance.-Bloomberg
>
>
>DefenseofficialsmustsubmitaproposaltoCongressforcompletely
>weaningthemilitarycommissaryandexchangesystemsofftaxpayer
>funding,accordingtoapotentiallyexplosiveprovisionburiedinthe
>newconferenceagreementonthe2016defenseauthorizationbill.
>MilitaryTimes
>
>
>U.S.lawmakersonTuesdayagreedtoincreasepharmacyco-paysthat
>largelyaffectmilitaryretireesaspartofasweepingdefensebill.
>Military.com
>
>
>*WomeninCombat*
>
>DefenseSecretaryAshtonB.CartersaidWednesdaythathewillnot
>reviewrecommendationsfromthemilitaryservicesonhowwomenshouldbe
>integratedintothemilitaryforsomemonths,addingthattheywill
>firstgotothePentagonsnewtopmilitaryofficer,Gen.JosephF.
>Dunford.WashingtonPostsCheckpoint
>
>
>AirForceSecretaryDeborahLeeJameshassubmittedtoDefenseSecretary
>AshCarterherrecommendationsonopeninguptheAirForce'slast
>male-onlycombatjobstowomen.MilitaryTimes
>
>
>*MissileDefense*
>
>TheNationalDefenseAuthorizationActthathasemergedfromconference
>negotiationswouldadd$30millionfortheplanninganddesignofan
>EastCoastmissiledefensesiteandspeedupitspossibledeployment,a
>victoryforsomecongressionalRepublicanswhohavelongfoughtfor
>tractiontomoveforwardwiththepossibleproject.DefenseNews
>
>
>*Cybersecurity*
>
>TheUnitedStatesadversariesseecyberwarfareasapotentialAmerican
>vulnerabilityinamilitaryengagement,thePentagonsnumbertwo
>civiliantoldtheHouseArmedServicesCommitteeWednesday.USNINews
>
>
>Themajorityoffederalagencieshavenotaddressedsignificant
>weaknessesincybersecurity,assecurityincidentsincreasedbymore
>than1,000percentinlessthanadecade,accordingtotheGovernment
>AccountabilityOffice(GAO).WashingtonFreeBeacon
>
>
>TheFederalBureauofInvestigationislookingtoenlistteenagersin
>itsfightagainstcybercrimebeforetheyareluredintohigh-paying
>privatesectorjobsorfailbackgroundchecksbysmokingmarijuana
>FinancialTimes
>
>
>BillGertzreports:DeputyDefenseSecretaryRobertWorkthisweek
>outlinedthePentagon'splanfordeterrenceagainstcyberattacksfrom
>nationstatessuchasChina,RussiaandNorthKorea.Intestimony
>TuesdaybeforetheSenateArmedServicesCommittee,Mr.Workalso
>confirmedthatthreemajorcyberattacksinrecentmonthswerelinkedto
>China,RussiaandNorthKorea.WashingtonTimes'InsidetheRing
>
>
>------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>*Russia/Europe*
>
>*Ukraine*
>
>AdrianKaratnyckywrites:Ukraine'snewlyvigorousdefensecapability
>cannotdeteranall-outRussianattack.Butamajoroffensiveis
>unlikelynow,asthecostsonbothsideswouldbemassive.Theconflict
>isunlikelytofade,either.ThestalemateinUkraine'seastunderscores
>theimportanceofbolsteringthecountry'sdeterrentcapabilities.And
>therearesignsthattheUnitedStatesandanincreasingnumberof
>Ukraine'swesternneighborsarecomingtoacceptthislogic.Atlantic
>Council
>
>
>*Russia*
>
>MashaGessenwrites:Mr.PutinisdeterminedtohaveRussiaagain
>acknowledgedasasuperpower,atleastequaltoAmericaindecidingthe
>fateofacountrylikeSyria.InthenameoffightingISIS,Russiawants
>theWesttoletitcontinuecarvingupUkraineandflexitsmusclesover
>muchofEurasia.InMr.Putinsspeech,andinhismind,thiswouldbe
>notonlylogicalbutplainlyright.NewYorkTimes
>
>
>StevenLeeMyerswrites:RussiasabstentionfromtheUnitedNations
>SecurityCouncilvoteauthorizingtheuseofmilitaryforcetostopthe
>slaughterinLibyain2011forcedPutinshandandsetthestageforhis
>returntothepresidencythenextyearandafarmoreconfrontational
>posturetotheUnitedStatesandEurope,onethatresonatesinthe
>RussianbombsexplodinginSyriatoday.-Politico
>
>
>*Europe*
>
>LatviaspresidentwarnedtheWestagainsttrustingMoscowasapartner
>asRussiaexpandsitsroleinSyria,pointingtoRussianPresident
>VladimirPutinssuccessingainingcontroloverpartsofUkrainewhile
>tryingtointimidateanddivideEurope.WallStreetJournal
>(subscriptionrequired)
>
>
>ThedesireofJeremyCorbyn,thenewleaderoftheLabourParty,to
>scrapBritainsnucleararsenaliswellknown,butwhenhesaidon
>Wednesdaythathewouldorderthemilitarynottousenuclearweaponsif
>hewereprimeminister,itcreatedafirestormofcriticism.NewYork
>Times
>
>
>TheheadofU.S.ArmyEuropeiseyeinganarrowsliverofland
>connectingPolandwithLithuania,concernedabouttheRussiantroopsand
>equipmenthehasbeenwatchingpileuponeitherside.Foreign
>PolicysTheCable
>
>
>ABritishgovernmentsourcedeniedonThursdayareportthatDavid
>Cameronwouldstepdownasprimeministerin2019,ayearbeforehis
>tenureends,andsaidhewouldservehisfullsecondterm.-Reuters
>
>
>FPISeniorFellowEllenBorkwrites:Ismayilovaremainsoptimisticabout
>Azerbaijansfuture.Ithinktherepressionmachineisaboutto
>collapse,shetoldthecourtthatsentencedher.Perhaps,sheventures,
>thedeclineinoilpricesthathavebuoyedthefortunesofseveral
>authoritarianregimes,isafactor,but,shesays,thereareother
>reasonsaswell.Oneofthesereasonsisus!Itcertainlywontbethe
>disapprovaloftheworldsdemocracies.WorldAffairsJournals
>DemocracyRoad
>
>
>DaliborRohacwrites:Tocountertheriseofanti-Europeanpopulismon
>boththefarrightandthefarleft,theEUneedsprofoundreforms.But
>itsjustasimportantthatitsexcessesdonotblindtheEUs
>conservativeandfree-marketcriticstothebigpicture.Abigpicture
>ofEuropethatis,byhistoricalstandards,uniquelyprosperousand
>peaceful.Oneonlyhopesitcanstaythatway.WallStreetJournal
>(subscriptionrequired)
>
>
>ReturntoTop<#150242d2da59e359_150241b5862a1754_15024>
>
>------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>*ObamaAdministration*
>
>PeterFeaverwrites:Wedonotarguethatbetterprocesswouldhave
>avoidedallofthemanifoldproblemsthisadministrationwillbequeath
>tothenext.Butwedoarguethatthenextpresidentwillneedtohavea
>betterprocessinordertogetthecountryoutoftheforeignpolicy
>ditchwehavelandedin.ForeignPolicysShadowGovernment
>
>
>ReturntoTop<#150242d2da59e359_150241b5862a1754_15024>
>
>------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>*DemocracyandHumanRights*
>
>TylerRoylancewrites:Today,therulersofRussia,China,andother
>authoritarianstateswouldliketocreateasimilararrangement,uniting
>allincumbentgovernmentsagainstcommonthreatstotheirgriponpower.
>Andliketheirpredecessors,thesedictatorsseelittledistinction
>amongtheirdiverseenemies.Independentjournalists,liberalopposition
>parties,nonviolentminorityadvocates,andmoderateIslamistsare
>lumpedtogetherwithmilitantjihadistsandbloodthirstyradicals.All
>areseenasextremists.FreedomHouse
>
>
>ReturntoTop<#150242d2da59e359_150241b5862a1754_15024>
>
>
>
>ReturntoTop<#150242d2da59e359_150241b5862a1754_15024>
>
>TheFPIOvernightBriefisadailyproductoftheForeignPolicy
>Initiative,whichseekstopromoteanactiveU.S.foreignpolicy
>committedtorobustsupportfordemocraticallies,humanrights,a
>strongAmericanmilitaryequippedtomeetthechallengesofthe21st
>century,andstrengtheningAmericasglobaleconomiccompetitiveness.To
>submitcommentsorsuggestions,emailovernight@foreignpolicyi.org
>.
>
>TheForeignPolicyInitiative
>
>Tounsubscribe,clickhere
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>
>
>TheForeignPolicyInitiative
>11DupontCircle,NWSuite325
>Washington,D.C.20036
>
>
>
>Telephone:(202)296-3322
>E-mail:info@foreignpolicyi.org
>VisitOurWebsite
>
>DonatetoFPI
>
>
>----------Forwardedmessage----------
>
>From:*ForeignPolicy*>
>Date:Thu,Oct1,2015at7:55AM
>Subject:SituationReport,presentedbyFPGuidetoApplyingtoGrad
>School-Russiareachesoutwhileeconomystrugglesquestionsoverwho
>MoscowisbombingmoreF35issuesKunduzfightragesonPentagon
>fundingbillintroubleAirForcesendssearchandrescueteamstoTurkey
>To:waz2102@columbia.edu
>
>SituationReport:Russiareachesoutwhileeconomystrugglesquestions
>overwhoMoscowisbombingmoreF35issuesKunduzfightrageson
>PentagonfundingbillintroubleAirForcesendssearchandrescue
>teamstoTurkeyandlotsmore
>
>Ifyouhaveproblemsviewingthisemail,viewitinabrowser.
>Please
>feelfreetoforwardittoafriend
>.
>
>
>
>ForeignPolicy
>
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>
>
>
>*SITUATIONREPORT*
>
>*TheNationalSecurityDailyBrieffromForeignPolicy
>*
>
>
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>Sponsoredby
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>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>*Thursday,October1,2015*
>
>
>
>
>*ByPaulMcLearywithAdamRawnsley*
>
>*Samewar,butnew.*RussianbombsarefallinginSyria,andU.S.
>officialsarentsurewhattodoaboutit.AttheUnitedNationson
>Wednesday,SecretaryofStateJohnKerrystoodnexttoRussianForeign
>MinisterSergeiLavrovjustasRussiansortieswerewrappingup,
>arrivingfortheirmeetingjustsecondsafterLavrov*toldreporters*
>dont
>listentothePentagonaboutRussianstrikes.
>
>Thestrikesshouldreallycomeasnosurprise.U.S.officialshavebeen
>sayingfordaystheyexpectthebombingtobeginatanytime,andMoscow
>canhardlyaffordtoabandonitsMediterraneanclientstate.
>*/FPs/ColumLynch*and*PaulMcLeary**noted*
>Wednesday
>thatRussiasonlyoverseasmilitarybaseislocatedatTartusinSyria,
>whichhouses1,700RussiantroopsandgivesRussianshipsahomebase
>intheMediterranean,allowingMoscowamuchgreaterforwardpresence
>thanitwouldhaveotherwise.
>
>*Strategery.*NotonlyisSyriaimportantforRussiaasafootholdin
>theregion,butbyopeningupanintelsharingshopinBaghdadstaffed
>byRussian,Iranian,SyrianandIraqimilitarypersonnel,Russian
>PresidentVladimirPutinhasmadeMoscowimpossibletoignoreinthe
>fractiousdebateoverwhattodonextinthefightagainsttheIslamic
>State.
>
>*Paytoplay.*ButRussiasrecentmilitaryforaysintoCrimea,Ukraine,
>andSyriadontcomecheap.Moscowhas25,000hungrytroopsstationedin
>Crimea,issupportingrebels(anditsowntroops)inUkraine,andnow
>hasstretchedsupplylinesintoSyriatosupporttroopsanddozensof
>high-techfighterplanes.Giventhefallofoilpricesandwestern
>sanctions,however,Moscowseconomyhasbeenhurting.And*/FPs/David
>Francis*arrives*justintime*
>to
>breakdownPutinseconomicsituation,completewithchartsforthoseof
>uswhoare...visuallearners.
>
>*Goodrebels,badrebels.*So,whoaretheRussians
>bombing?*/FPs/DavidKenner**reports*
>that
>thoseRussianbombsarenthittingwhoMoscowsaidtheydhit,namely
>theIslamicState.Rather,Russianplaneslooktobeputtingordnanceon
>arebelgroupthatlikelywasvettedbytheCIA,usesU.S.-made
>weapons,andhaspubliclybackedtheinternationalcoalitionfighting
>theIslamicState.Thegroupalsoispartofalooseallianceof
>militiasfocusedonbattlingtheregimeofSyrianPresidentBashar
>al-Assad,whichmeansthattheearlyphaseofMoscowsmilitary
>interventionwillstrengthenAssadatleastasmuchasitwillweaken
>theIslamicState.
>
>*Kunduzcalling.*WiththehelpofAfghan,U.S.,andNATOSpecial
>Forces,theAfghanarmyisonthevergeofdoingsomethinginadaythat
>thattheIraqiarmyhasbeenunabletodoforalmosttwoyears:pusha
>rebelgroupoutofamajorcity.DaysaftertheTalibanstormedthecity
>ofKunduz,sendingAfghanforceswheelingoutoftown,thearmyand
>specialforcesreturnedtokickinthedoor,andhave*nowretaken*
>parts
>ofthecity.
>
>Thesituationisprettyfluidandthereisstillplentyoffighting
>*localsreport*
>,
>andthetwosidesaregoinghousetohouseinsomepartsoftown.The
>Talibancaptureofthecitycomesastheresultofa*sophisticated
>game*
>the
>grouphasbeenplayinginthenorthforthepasttwoyears,patiently
>inchingclosertothecitywhilewinningoverlocalsfedupwith
>governmentcorruption.
>
>*Hey,werestillhere!*WeshouldnotethattodayisOct.1--the
>firstdayoftheU.S.federalgovernmentsfiscalyear--andWashington
>hassomehowavoidedanothershutdown.Butthestruggleisreal.
>PresidentBarackObamahas*promisedtoveto*
>the
>defensespendingbillCongressisworkingonoveradisputeconcerning
>howtofundtheDepartmentofDefense.AtissueiswhetherCongress
>shouldcrashthroughspendingcapsimposedonthedefensebillby
>paddingasupplementalwartimeaccountwithanextra$38billion.The
>HousewillvoteonthebillThursday.
>
>*Anothergoodmorningtoyou.VladimirPutinsRussiaiseatingupall
>theheadlines,butitsabigworldoutthere.Asalways,yourvoices
>arewelcome.Pleasepassalonganytips,notes,orotherwiseinteresting
>bitsofinformationthatyoumayhaveatyourdisposal.Bestwayisto
>sendthemto**paul.mcleary@foreignpolicy.com*
>*oronTwitter:**@paulmcleary*
>*or**@arawnsley*
>*.*
>
>Ifyouhaventyetheard,FPisnowproducingpodcasts!Checkoutour
>twoprograms,TheEditorsRoundtable(TheE.R.)andGlobalThinkersfor
>moreforeignpolicyinsight,commentaryandanalysis.Youcansubscribe
>andlistentothemtodayoniTunesorStitcher:http://atfp.co/1K7nhrI
>
>*TopTweet*
>
>RT*@LizSly*
>Russia's
>mapofwhereISISis*iscompletelydifferent*
>to
>the*@ISW*
>'s.
>Kurdsshouldbecareful.SoshouldAleppo.
>
>Speakingofmaps,theInstitutefortheStudyofWarhasjust*comeout*
>with
>afreshset,showingwhereRussianwarplaneshavestruckinSyriasfar
>west,hundredsofkilometersawayfromanyknownIslamicStateheld
>territory.
>
>*Syria*
>
>Whatdoes*deconfliction*
>between
>forcesinSyrialookliketoRussia?AccordingtoBritain's*/Daily
>Telegraph/*,itinvolvesaRussiangeneralstrollingintotheU.S.
>embassyinBaghdadandsayingcurtly"welaunchSyriaairstrikesinone
>hour.Stayoutoftheway."
>
>*Drones*
>
>TheU.S.hasfoundnewmarketsforitsScanEagledrones.Instugotthe
>greenlighttosellthesmallishdronesalongwithlaunchersto
>Cameroon,Kenya,andPakistanforagrandtotalof$35millionworthof
>equipment,*according*
>to
>*/FlightGlobal/*.
>
>*Searchandrescue*
>
>MoreU.S.troopsareontheirwaytoTurkey.About300AirForce
>personnel*areheaded*
>to
>DiyarbakirAirBaseisinsouthernTurkey,whichsitsabout100miles
>fromtheborderwithSyria.Amongthoseairmenarepararescueteams,
>combatrescueofficersandspecialistswhospecializeinretrieving
>downedpilotsorisolatedtroops.Inotherwords,thePentagonis
>preparingfordownedpilots.
>
>TheteamsaredeployingwiththeirHH-60GPaveHawkhelicoptersand
>HC-130stocarryoutrescueoperations,ifneeded,*/AirForce
>Times/*JeffSchogol*reports*
>.
>Diyarbakirsitsover300milestotheeastofIncirlikAirBase,where
>U.S.F-16shavebeenflyingmissionsagainsttheIslamicStatesinceAugust.
>
>*Gulf*
>
>TheU.S.Navycapturedahostof*RussianandIranianweapons*
>aboard
>asmall,unregistereddhowitstoppedoffthecoastofYemenlastweek,
>accordingtothe*/AssociatedPress/*.TheUSS/ForrestSherman/,a
>guidedmissiledestroyer,stoppedtheshipandfoundanti-tankweapons
>aboardwhichtheIraniancrewclaimedwereboundforSomalia.U.S.
>officialssaidit'spossiblethattheweaponswereultimatelyboundfor
>theconflictinYemen,withSomaliaasastoppingoffpoint.The
>Saudi-ledcoalitionatwarinYemenbelievesthatIranhasbeensecretly
>supplyingtheHouthimovement,whichit'stryingtodisplacefrompower
>inthecountry.
>
>*AirForce*
>
>WhenwillweknowwhowillbuildtheAirForce'snextgenerationbomber?
>Sometimeinthe*nextcoupleofmonths*
>,
>accordingtotheservice.Lt.Gen.ArnoldBunchtoldCongressional
>officialsthattheAirForceplanstotakeitstimeselectingfromthe
>bidsofferedbyRaytheonandthejointtheteamofLockheedandBoeing.
>Sourcesintheflyingbranchtell*/Reuters/*thatthecompanieswill
>submittheirfinalproposalstotheDefenseDepartmentthisweek.
>
>*MoreF-35trouble*
>
>Well,thisishardlyunexpected.Addingyetanothergrimdatapointto
>theyearsofheadachesthatthewildlyexpensive,andconstantly
>troubled,F-35programhascausedtheU.S.AirForce,*/DefenseNews
>/LaraSeligman*and*AaronMehta**report*
>that
>skinnypilotsneednotapply.Pilotsweighinglessthan136lbs.have
>beenfoundtobeatincreasedriskofinjuryduringlow-speedejections,
>andasaresult,anyfliernotmeetingthatweighthasbeengrounded
>untiltheproblemcanbefixed.
>
>
>
>
>
>*Register*
>
>*atForeignPolicy.comtoreceiveSituationReportandotherFP
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>*byFerrisJabr*
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>*
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>*byBrittPeterson*
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>*CentralAsiasIslandofDemocracyisSinking
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>*byNateSchenkkan*
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>rightsreserved.ForeignPolicy,11DUPONTCIRCLENW,SUITE600,
>WASHINGTONDC20036
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>
>----------Forwardedmessage----------
>From:*ForeignPolicy*>
>Date:Wed,Sep30,2015at9:02PM
>Subject:Editors'Picks:Meettheanti-ISISfightersPutinjustbombed
>inSyriaandforColombiasdisplaced,homecomingisstillalongwayoff
>To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu
>
>
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>Ifyouhaveproblemsviewingthisemail,viewitinabrowser.
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>WelcometoEditors'Picks,FP'sround-upoftheday'sbestarticles.
>
>Today,welookathowdisplacedColombiansseethepeacedeal,whether
>Godishavingaclimatemoment,andtheCongolesepresidentsbidtobuy
>time.
>
>*1*
>
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>*FRIENDSLIKETHESE:*
>Moscow
>saysitsenemyisISIS,buttheinitialphaseofitsairwarinSyria
>hitAmerican-backedrebels,FPsDavidKennerreports:Readmore
>
>
>
>
 From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 12/05/201506:04:34AM
To: KellyKivler<kbk1267@gmail.com>
Subject: Sechinwhines........

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/04/yergin-why-oil-prices-cannot-stay-this-low.html

GO

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Yergin:Whyoilpricescannotstay 214
SHARES

thislow
TomDiChristopher|@tdichristopher
98 COMMENTS JointheDiscussion
Friday,4Dec2015|8:48AMET

v , v Jvp b
b, F P
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Thenexttwoquarterswillbetoughoncrudeprices,but2016willbeayearof
transitionforoilmarkets,IHSViceChairmanDanYerginsaidFriday.

YergintoldCNBC's"SquawkBox"heexpectsoilmarketstobegintobalance
nextyearorin2017.

"Theoilmarket"can'tstaylowlikethisbecauseyou'renotgoingtohavethe
investmentyouneed,"hesaid.""By2020,theworldoilmarketisgoingto
needanother7millionbarrelsadayofproduction."

"Rightnow,thewholemantraisslowdown,postpone,cancelprojects,"he
added.

MultinationalenergycompaniesandU.S.shaleoilproducershaveslashed
capitalspendinginordertoprotecttheirbalancesheetsastheirrevenues FROMTHEWEB SponsoredLinksbyTaboola
plummetandcashflowdriesup.Crudepricesbegantosinkfromhistoric
highslastfall,andthedownturnacceleratedafterOPECannounceditwould
notcutsupplytobalanceoilmarkets.
Despiteexpectationsthathigh-pricedAmericancrudeproductionwould
collapseat$70abarrel,U.S.producerscanperformwellat$55to$60per EnergyandDOERSGot Watch:MSDoesntStop
barrel.However,currentpricesinthe$40to$50rangearecreating"great theU.S.toWhereitis JulieRobertsLife
pain,"hesaid. Now HealthiNation
Chevron

YerginsaidhedoesnotexpectOPECtochangeitspolicyofmaintaining
currentoiloutputlevelstodefendmarketshare.The12-memberorgnizationis
meetingFridayinVienna.

WhySaudiArabiawon'tplayniceatOPECmeeting 10Starsfrom TheWorld'sFastest-

Commercials-WhoAre GrowingTravel
TheyReally? Destinations
Answers MerrillLynch

CrudeoilfuturesroseThursdayonreportsthattopoilexporterSaudiArabia byTaboola
wouldagreetocutproductionby1millionbarrelsaday,providednon-OPEC
Thisishowlowtradersseeoilgoingnow
membersalsodialdownoutput.
Newestwaytomakemoneyinoil:Sockingitaway
However,aSaudisourcesaidlaterthereportbyindustrypublicationEnergy WhyisRussiasellingit'sprizedjettoChina?
Intelligencewas"baseless."Iran,IraqandRussiaswiftlyrejectedanysuch SaudiArabiaattippingpointduetooilplunge
proposal. Cramer:Timetobraceformassfactorylayoffs?
AfterECBmoves,timetobuyoil?
Russia,whichdoesnotbelongtoOPEC,istheworld'stopoilproducersand
Budgetorbust:Howtoavoidemptypocketsat80
hasbeenpumpingcrudeatarateofabout10.5millionbarrelsperday.
Thetaxmancomethagain...sobeprepared
6tipstocutyourtaxburden
Haveyoucheckedyourinsurancecoveragelately?
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AfteryearsofsanctionsonIranianoil,Iran'sleadershavesaidtheyplanto
bring500,000barrelsperdaytomarketsassoonaspossible,andthey
anticipatereaching1millionbarrels.Theworldisalreadyoversuppliedwith
about1.5millionbarrelsofoil.

KurtHallead,co-headofenergyresearchatRBCCapitalMarkets,saida
SaudicutwashighlyunlikelybecauseitwouldessentiallysubsidizeU.S.
productionandmakeroomintheoilmarketsforIran,theSaudischief
regionalrival.

Thepartyisoverforoil:DanYergin

Oilpricesmayberangeboundforyears,hetold"SquawkBox"onFriday.

"Ithinkthisismoreliketheperiodof1991to1994,whereyouhadabouta
three-yearperiodofcapacityabsorptionbeforethesupplyanddemandlines
kindofcrossedagain,"hesaid.

Inhisscenario,priceswouldmoveupanddownbetweencurrentlevelsand
roughly$60perbarrel.
 TomDiChristopher
WebandTVproducer

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2015CNBCLLC.AllRightsReserved.ADivisionofNBCUniversal
 From: MartinDewhirst<martin.dewhirst@googlemail.com>
Senttime: 10/01/201503:42:14PM
To: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Re:FW:FPIOvernightBrief:October1,2015[RelevanttoUAandRegion].......Fwd:FPSituationReport[RelevanttoUAand
Subject:
Region].....FORBES/PAULRG:as-russia-launches-air-strikes-in-syria-obama-must-make-sure-we-dont-forget-ukraine........FPED/Meet...

I'msurprisedanddisappointedthatProf.Gregorydoesn'tstressthat
theUS(and,ideally,theEU)should/mustimposeadditionalsanctionson
Russiaintheimmediatefuture.IfObamahaddeclinedtomeetPutin,he
mightwellnothavebecomesoaggressiveinSyria,Ithink.Putin
thoughthecouldgetawaywithanotherinvasion.Maybehewasright.
M.

On01/10/201517:49,JohnBDunlopwrote:
>*From:*WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
>*Sent:*Thursday,October01,20159:35AM
>*To:*RomaHadzewyczrl
>*Subject:*Fwd:FPIOvernightBrief:October1,2015[RelevanttoUAand
>Region].......Fwd:FPSituationReport[RelevanttoUAand
>Region].....FORBES/PAULRG:
>as-russia-launches-air-strikes-in-syria-obama-must-make-sure-we-dont-forget-ukraine........FP
>ED/Meet...
>
>----------Forwardedmessage----------
>From:*paulroderickgregory*>
>Date:Thu,Oct1,2015at9:07AM
>Subject:Lobby
>To:WalterZaryckyj>
>
>Walter:
>
>IbelievePutin'sactionsinSyriacouldforceObamatocarryoutthe
>UkraineFreedomAct,asIargueinthisForbespiece.Canyougetthis
>pointtothosewhomighthavesomelobbyingpower?
>
>http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2015/09/30/as-russia-launches-air-strikes-in-syr
ia-obama-must-make-sure-we-dont-forget-ukraine/
>
>----------Forwardedmessage----------
>From:*ForeignPolicyInitiative*>
>Date:Thu,Oct1,2015at7:33AM
>Subject:FPIOvernightBrief:October1,2015
>To:Walter>
>
>TheForeignPolicyInitiative
>
>
>FollowandSupportFPI
>
>FollowusonFacebook
>Follow
>usonTwitter
>Follow
>usonYouTube
>See
>ourphotosonFlickr
>Subscribe
>toourRSSfeed.
>Donate
>toFPI
>
>
>
>FPIOvernightBrief
>
>October1,2015
>
>*TableofContents*
>MiddleEast/NorthAfrica<#150242d2da59e359_150241b5862a1754_15024>,
>Asia<#150242d2da59e359_150241b5862a1754_15024>,Security
><#150242d2da59e359_150241b5862a1754_15024>,Russia/Europe
><#150242d2da59e359_150241b5862a1754_15024>,Americas
><#150242d2da59e359_150241b5862a1754_15024>,Africa
><#150242d2da59e359_150241b5862a1754_15024>,ObamaAdministration
><#150242d2da59e359_150241b5862a1754_15024>,DemocracyandHumanRights
><#150242d2da59e359_150241b5862a1754_15024>,Events
><#150242d2da59e359_150241b5862a1754_15024>
>
>
>Announcements
>
>The2015FPIForum
>will
>beheldattheNewseuminWashington,DCtoday.
>
>ApplicationsforFPI's2015NewYorkLeadersProgram
>are
>duetomorrow.
>
>Besuretoencourageyourcolleaguestosignup
>for
>theFPIOvernightBrief.
>
>Ifyousupportourmissionandwork,pleaseconsidermakinga
>tax-deductibledonation
>to
>FPItoday.
>
>ReadthenewbriefingbooksfromFPI
>and
>theJohnHayInitiative
>.
>
>ISWispublishingregularupdatesonthesituationinIraqandSyria
>,
>andAEI'sCriticalThreatsProjectisdoingsofortheYemen
>conflict.
>
>
>
>
>TheMust-Reads
>
>Russians
>strike
>targetsinSyria,butnotinISISareas
>
>Administration
>scrambles
>asRussiaseizesinitiativeinSyria
>
>Rogin
>:
>RussiarisksbeingprosecutedforSyriaswarcrimes
>
>Boot,Pregent
>:
>HowObamacouldsalvagehisISISstrategy
>
>FPIsAdesnik,Kahn
>:
>PreventingIranfromexploitingthenucleardeal
>
>Abbas
>:
>PalestiniansnolongerboundbyOslo,Abrams
>responds
>
>Kunduz
>won
>afteryears-longstrategy,US
>struggles
>tohelpAfghans
>
>MackenzieEaglen
>:
>ThetopchangesinthenewNDAA
>
>FPIsEllenBork
>:
>IgnoringhumanrightsinAzerbaijan
>
>
>MiddleEast/NorthAfrica
>
>*Syria*
>
>RussianaircraftcarriedoutabombingattackagainstSyrianopposition
>fightersonWednesday,includingatleastonegrouptrainedbythe
>C.I.A.,elicitingangryprotestsfromAmericanofficialsandplunging
>thecomplexsectarianwarthereintodangerousnewterritory.NewYork
>Times
>
>
>BlindsidedbytheunexpectedswiftnessofRussiasairattacksinSyria,
>theObamaadministrationscrambledWednesdaytoretakethediplomatic
>andmilitaryinitiatives,sayingthatitwouldnotbebulliedinto
>supportingPresidentBasharal-Assadandthatitwasaboutto
>significantlyexpanditsownSyrianairoperations.WashingtonPost
>
>
>TheU.S.andRussiahaveagreedonspecificstepsthatcouldnudge
>forwardaSyrianpoliticalprocess,U.S.SecretaryofStateJohnKerry
>saidWednesday.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)
>
>
>Russianofficialsvehementlydefendedthecountrysairstrikecampaign
>inSyriaThursday,denyingreportsofciviliandeathsandWestern
>accusationsthatthecountrywastargetingU.S.-backedrebelsinsteadof
>theIslamicState.WashingtonPost
>
>
>WhenRussiadeclareditwouldstarthittingtheIslamicStateinSyria,
>opponentsofPresidentBasharal-Assadwereimmediatelyconcernedthat
>itwouldtargetthemaswellinsurgentswhorebelledlongbeforethe
>IslamicState,alsocalledISISorISIL,existedinitscurrentform.
>ButeventheyweretakenabackonWednesdaywhenRussiasveryfirst
>airstrikesinSyriaappearedtotargetareaswheretheIslamicStatehas
>noknownpresence,includingsomethathavesymbolicresonanceas
>strongholdsoftheearly,locallybasedoppositionthatsprangupamong
>armydefectors.NewYorkTimes
>
>
>TherushofmigrantsintoEurope,combinedwiththeContinentsfear
>thatIslamicStatefightersmaycrossporousborderstocarryout
>attacks,hasstirrednewurgencyamongWesternleaderstoaddressthe
>warinSyriaandpushharderforanendtoit.NewYorkTimes
>
>
>Francehasopenedtheworldsfirstcriminalinquiryintotortureunder
>PresidentBasharal-AssadofSyria,officialsandrightsadvocatessaid
>Wednesday,anindirectrebuketoRussiaanditseffortstorehabilitate
>Mr.Assadaspartofaninternationalanti-Islamistcoalition.New
>YorkTimes
>
>
>TheU.S.forcesbombingIslamicStatetargetsinSyriawillnotyieldto
>Russianjets,DefenseSecretaryAshCartersaidWednesday.Healso
>confirmedthatRussiasfirststrikesonWednesdaywerenotinareas
>wheretheIslamicStateoperatesandthatraisestheriskofcollision
>betweenRussianandcoalitionforces.DefenseOne
>
>
>FouryearsintoSyria'scivilwarandmorethanayearintoaU.S.-led
>bombingcampaignagainsttheIslamicStateterroristgroup,theU.S.
>militarynowfacesanew,potentiallyfarmoredangerousprospect:
>backingtheoppositesideoftheRussianAirForce.-Politico
>
>
>[W]ithRussianowsharingintelligencewiththeIraqis,Syrians,and
>IraniansfromanewlyformedoperationscenterinBaghdad,Washington
>andMoscowmustresolvelargerdividesoverthefutureofSyrian
>PresidentBasharal-AssadandtheflailingfightagainsttheIslamic
>StateinIraqandSyria.ForeignPolicy
>
>
>MittRomney,2012GOPpresidentialcandidateandformerMassachusetts
>governer,slammedPresidentObamaonhishandlingofthecrisisin
>Syria.TheHill
>
>
>Sen.JohnMcCain(R-Ariz.)slammedtheObamaadministrationon
>Wednesday,suggestingtheyaretoblameforRussia'sincreasedmilitary
>presenceinSyria.TheHillsFloorAction
>
>
>Sen.BobCorker(R-Tenn.)isinvitingSecretaryofStateJohnKerryto
>testifybeforetheForeignRelationsCommitteeovertheadministration's
>policyinSyria,asRussiabeginsacampaignofairstrikesinthe
>country.TheHillsFloorAction
>
>
>JoshRoginreports:NowthattheRussiangovernmentisopenlyaidingthe
>Syrianarmy,RussianofficialsallthewayuptoPresidentVladimir
>Putincouldbeprosecutedforabettingwarcrimes,accordingtoformer
>U.S.officialsandinternationallawexperts.BloombergView
>
>
>*Iran*
>
>GrowingspeculationthatJohnKerrywillreceiveaNobelPeacePrizefor
>finalizingtheIraniannucleardealisgeneratingrenewedcriticismof
>hiscloserelationshipwiththeIranianforeignminister,JavadZarif,a
>keypublicfaceforthetheocraticregimewhoisrumoredtobea
>probableco-recipientwithKerry.WashingtonFreeBeacon
>
>
>AgroupofRepublicansenatorsarepushingtoblockreliefofIran's
>sanctionsuntilitpaysbillionsinterrorismfinesamovethatcould
>potentiallyunderminePresidentObama'sIrannucleardeal.TheHills
>FloorAction
>
>
>Sen.TedCruzwantstheStateDepartmenttoclassifyaneliteIranian
>militaryforceasaterroristorganization.TheHillsFloorAction
>
>
>KennethStethem,aformerNavySEALandthebrotherofanAmerican
>victimofIranianterrorism,calledonPresidentObamatosupportabill
>thatwouldcompelIrantopaythe$43.5billionitowestovictimsof
>terrorismbeforereceivingsanctionsrelief.WashingtonFreeBeacon
>
>
>FPIPolicyDirectorDavidAdesnikandSeniorPolicyAnalystTzviKahn
>write:ThedebateoverthenucleardealhardlyendedwhenPresident
>ObamaheldtogetherenoughSenateDemocratstofilibusteraresolution
>ofdisapproval.Rather,thedebatewillnowfocusonpreventingIran
>fromextractingfurtherconcessionsandexploitingthedealsmany
>loopholes.Boththeopponentsofthedealanditsmanyreluctant
>supporterscannowcontinuetogethertheunfinishedworkofpreventing
>Iranfromdevelopinganuclearweapon.ForeignPolicyInitiative
>
>
>EmanueleOttolenghiwrites:Amoreaggressiveapproachtocounteringthe
>IRGCiscrucialtocompensateforthenuclearagreement'sshortcomings.
>Signingthenucleardealisbynomeanstheendofcounteringthe
>Guard'sambitionsinmanyways,itisjustthebeginning.TheHill
>
>
>*Iraq*
>
>KurdishforcessaidtheydroveIslamicStatemilitantsoutofvillages
>neartheoilcityofKirkukinnorthernIraqonWednesday,inan
>offensivebackedbyairstrikesfromtheU.S.-ledcoalition.-Reuters
>
>
>EliLakereports:WhentheIslamicStatein2014beganitsrampage
>throughoutIraq,manyofthedisplacedpeoplefoundasafehaveninthe
>Kurdistanprovincesinthenorth.Thatsafehavenisnowindanger.
>BloombergView
>
>
>Rep.AlceeHastings(D-FL)writes:Whilethegeo-politicalcomplexities
>thatexistintheregionareunquestionablydaunting,onethingis
>clear:thousandsofwomencurrentlyexperiencingthishorrific
>treatment,andthefewwhohavebeenluckyenoughtoescape,needthe
>supportoftheinternationalcommunity.RollCall
>
>
>*Turkey*
>
>TheAirForceisdeployingabout300airmentoDiyarbakirAirBasein
>Turkeytofind,protectandrescueanyU.S.orcoalitionpilotswhohave
>toejectoverIraqorSyria.MilitaryTimes
>
>
>AprominentTurkishjournalistwashospitalizedafteranattackby
>unknownassailantsoutsidehishome,hisnewspapersaidonThursday,in
>thelatestsignofdeterioratingconditionsforthemediaunder
>PresidentTayyipErdogan.-Reuters
>
>
>Editorial:Consideringthepotentialtodisruptthewaragainstthe
>IslamicState,theObamaadministrationhasreactedmildlytoMr.
>Erdoganscampaign.AStateDepartmentspokesmanhasbeencriticalof
>theattacksonthemedia,sayingthequalityofTurkeysdemocracy
>matterstous.Healsosaidtheadministrationistalkingtothe
>TurkishgovernmentaboutU.S.supportfortheKurdishforcesinSyria.
>GiventheslimchancesthatMr.Erdoganwillrespondreasonably,
>WashingtoncanonlyhopethatTurkishvotersrebuffhimagain.
>WashingtonPost
>
>
>ReturntoTop<#150242d2da59e359_150241b5862a1754_15024>
>
>------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>*Asia*
>
>*Afghanistan*
>
>Kunduzresidentsandprovincialofficialssaidthecityremainedin
>TalibanhandsonThursday,despiteclaimsfromtheAfghangovernment
>thatithadretakenthecity.NewYorkTimes
>
>
>Inapotentialmajorshiftinpolicy,U.S.militarycommanderswantto
>keepatleastafewthousandAmericantroopsinAfghanistanbeyond2016,
>citingafragilesecuritysituationhighlightedbytheTaliban'scapture
>ofthenortherncityofKunduzthisweekaswellasrecentmilitant
>inroadsinthesouth.AssociatedPress
>
>
>U.S.andAfghanofficialspitchedinvestorsWednesdayondoingbusiness
>onmilitaryairfieldsthatNATOtroopswillwithdrawfromin
>Afghanistan,evenastheTalibaninsurgencyragesoninthecountry.
>AssociatedPress
>
>
>AhmedRashidwrites:TheTalibanscaptureofthenorthernAfghancity
>ofKunduzisacatastrophicblowtothebeleagueredgovernmentof
>PresidentAshrafGhani,whohasbeeninofficeforayear.Butithas
>muchwiderimplicationsfortheregion.FinancialTimes
>
>
>*South/CentralAsia*
>
>Pro-RussianpartieslooksettoretaintheirdominancewhenKyrgyzstan
>electsanewparliamentonSunday,buttheapparentstabilitymasks
>ethnictensionsandrisingIslamistradicalismintheformerSoviet
>republic.-Reuters
>
>
>NateSchennkanwrites:Thepost-2010constitutionwassupposedtocreate
>aparliamentaryrepublic,butthereareworryingsignsthatcurrent
>PresidentAlmazbekAtambaevistheonecallingtheshots.Kyrgyzstanmay
>notbeheadedtoadictatorship,butneitherisitbecomingmore
>democratic.Whathappened?ForeignPolicysDemocracyLab
>
>
>*China*
>
>Persistentheadwindsareholdingbacktheworldssecond-largesteconomy
>despitesomenascentsignsofimprovementinSeptemberforChinas
>strugglingmanufacturingsector.WallStreetJournal(subscription
>required)
>
>
>Chinahasquietlybegunconstructiononitsfirstdomesticaircraft
>carrierinthesamenorthernChineseshipyardthatrefurbishedthe
>PeoplesLiberationArmyNavyscurrentSoviet-eracarrier,USNINews
>haslearned.USNINews
>
>
>AnewexplosionrockedacountytowninsouthwesternGuangxiprovinceon
>Thursdaymorning,statemediareported,justhoursafterpolicearrested
>a33year-oldmanforpossibleinvolvementinaseriesofmailbombs
>thatkilledatleastsevenpeopleonWednesday.FinancialTimes
>
>
>Atleast50peoplediedinanattacklastmonthatacoalminein
>China'sfar-westernXinjiang,RadioFreeAsiareportedonThursday,asa
>visitingseniorleaderwarnedthatthesecuritysituationinthe
>violence-proneregionwas"veryserious".-Reuters
>
>
>*EastAsia*
>
>PrimeMinisterShinzoAbesnewcabinetcouldincludeafamiliar
>nameKoizumiasMr.Abeseekstoshoreuppublicsupportafteralong
>battleoversecuritybillsthissummerdentedhispopularity.WSJs
>JapanRealTime
>
>
>TaiwanPresidentMaYing-jeousaidonThursdaytheislandwasnotready
>todiscussunificationwithChina,sendingafirmmessagetoan
>increasinglyassertiveBeijingeagertoabsorbwhatitconsidersa
>renegadeprovince.-Reuters
>
>
>RichardFontainewrites:NowPyongyanghasannouncedanimminent
>satellitelaunchexpectedtodemonstrateitsballistic-missile
>capabilities.Armedwithnuclearandchemicalweapons,KimJongUnposes
>anenduringthreattotheSouth.ThishasmotivatedSouthKoreaand
>Chinarecentlytodevelopwarmerties,somethingthathasntgone
>unnoticedacrosstheregion.WallStreetJournal(subscription
>required)
>
>
>*SoutheastAsia*
>
>AwarofwordsisbeingfoughtinMyanmar,largelyoversocialmedia,
>betweennationalistBuddhistmonksandoppositionleaderAungSanSuu
>Kyi'sparty,highlightingdivisionsintherun-uptoageneralelection
>onNov.8.-Reuters
>
>
>TheruralheartlandofThailand'sdeposedleaderYingluckShinawatraand
>herexiledbillionairebrotherThaksinishurtingasaresultofthe
>militarygovernment'seconomicpolicies,stirringdiscontentandthe
>threatofprotests.-Reuters
>
>
>Editorial:EvenifMr.Najibstepsdown,tensionsarelikelytoincrease
>forsometime.AfterthePrimeMinistersackedhisdeputyandrival,
>MuhyiddinYassin,inJulyandpurgedotherreformersfromUMNO,Malay
>chauvinistshavemovedintopositionsofpower.Malaysiasminorities
>havegoodreasontofeartheywillagainbescapegoatsinthecountrys
>powerstruggles.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)
>
>
>*Trans-PacificPartnership*
>
>TradeministersfortheUnitedStatesand11otherPacificnations
>gatheredinAtlantaonWednesdaytotrytoreachagreementonthe
>largestregionalfree-tradepactever.Butknottydifferencespersist,
>andantitradeblastsfromAmericanpresidentialcandidateshavenot
>easedprospectsforanydeal.NewYorkTimes
>
>
>ReturntoTop<#150242d2da59e359_150241b5862a1754_15024>
>
>------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>*Security*
>
>*DefenseBudget*
>
>InadisputewithRepublicansoverhowdefensewouldbefunded,
>PresidentObamaplanstovetothe2016defensepolicybillduefora
>voteintheHouseonThursday,aWhiteHousespokesmantoldreporters
>Wednesday.DefenseNews
>
>
>Theconferenceversionofthedefensepolicybillfor2016putstheNavy
>onnoticeinmultiplehigh-priorityprograms.Inthreeareascarriers,
>theUCLASSdrone,andLCSSen.JohnMcCainstoughpositionsprevailed
>overtheHouse,albeitwithsomecompromisesaroundtheedges.Ina
>fourthTiconderoga-classcruisersitwasaHouseleader,Rep.Randy
>Forbes,whopushedharshermeasuresandgotapartialvictory.
>BreakingDefense
>
>
>TheNavywouldfaceshipdeliverydelays,slowdowninitsadvance
>procurementeffortsandmaybeblockedfromstartinganaircraftcarrier
>refuelingifashort-termcontinuingresolution,settostarttomorrow,
>isextendedpastDecember.USNINews
>
>
>Theannualdefensebillauthorizes$411milliontoupguntheArmys
>Strykervehicles.ThecompromisegoeswiththeSenateshigherfunding
>levels:$314millionformodificationworkand$97millionforR&D.
>Thatsaheadyincreasefromthe$0.00thepresidentsbudgetincluded
>fortheinitiative,whichemergedmid-yearasaresponsetoRussian
>aggressioninEurope.BreakingDefense
>
>
>U.S.lawmakersagainrejectedtheAirForcesproposaltoretirethe
>A-10ThunderboltIIattackaircraft,callingthedecisionmisguided.
>DODBuzz
>
>
>MackenzieEaglenwrites:Highlightsofthisyearsdefensepolicybill
>craftedbySenatorsJohnMcCain(R-AZ)andJackReed(D-RI)and
>RepresentativesMacThornberry(R-TX)andAdamSmith(D-WA)include
>significantbipartisanchangesinacquisitionreform,military
>retirement,USpolicyintheSouthChinaSea,andastrategyforthe
>eventualclosureofGuantanamoBay.BreakingDefense
>
>
>*Defense*
>
>Inwhatappearstobethefirstshotinapotentiallygroundbreaking
>changetodefensemergersandacquisitions,FrankKendall,the
>Pentagonstopacquisitionofficial,saidtheDepartmentofDefense
>planstoaskCongresstocreaterulesthatcouldhindermergersbetween
>primecontractors.DefenseNews
>
>
>TheUSAirForceisstillworkingthroughthedetailsofacontract
>awardforthenext-generationbomber,andexpectsanannouncementonthe
>finaldownselectinthenextfewmonths.DefenseNews
>
>
>LockheedMartinCorp.hasmorethan$700millionatstakeinconvincing
>theU.S.Navyitcanremedyflawsinnewunderwaterdronesintendedto
>huntdownminesfromasafedistance.-Bloomberg
>
>
>DefenseofficialsmustsubmitaproposaltoCongressforcompletely
>weaningthemilitarycommissaryandexchangesystemsofftaxpayer
>funding,accordingtoapotentiallyexplosiveprovisionburiedinthe
>newconferenceagreementonthe2016defenseauthorizationbill.
>MilitaryTimes
>
>
>U.S.lawmakersonTuesdayagreedtoincreasepharmacyco-paysthat
>largelyaffectmilitaryretireesaspartofasweepingdefensebill.
>Military.com
>
>
>*WomeninCombat*
>
>DefenseSecretaryAshtonB.CartersaidWednesdaythathewillnot
>reviewrecommendationsfromthemilitaryservicesonhowwomenshouldbe
>integratedintothemilitaryforsomemonths,addingthattheywill
>firstgotothePentagonsnewtopmilitaryofficer,Gen.JosephF.
>Dunford.WashingtonPostsCheckpoint
>
>
>AirForceSecretaryDeborahLeeJameshassubmittedtoDefenseSecretary
>AshCarterherrecommendationsonopeninguptheAirForce'slast
>male-onlycombatjobstowomen.MilitaryTimes
>
>
>*MissileDefense*
>
>TheNationalDefenseAuthorizationActthathasemergedfromconference
>negotiationswouldadd$30millionfortheplanninganddesignofan
>EastCoastmissiledefensesiteandspeedupitspossibledeployment,a
>victoryforsomecongressionalRepublicanswhohavelongfoughtfor
>tractiontomoveforwardwiththepossibleproject.DefenseNews
>
>
>*Cybersecurity*
>
>TheUnitedStatesadversariesseecyberwarfareasapotentialAmerican
>vulnerabilityinamilitaryengagement,thePentagonsnumbertwo
>civiliantoldtheHouseArmedServicesCommitteeWednesday.USNINews
>
>
>Themajorityoffederalagencieshavenotaddressedsignificant
>weaknessesincybersecurity,assecurityincidentsincreasedbymore
>than1,000percentinlessthanadecade,accordingtotheGovernment
>AccountabilityOffice(GAO).WashingtonFreeBeacon
>
>
>TheFederalBureauofInvestigationislookingtoenlistteenagersin
>itsfightagainstcybercrimebeforetheyareluredintohigh-paying
>privatesectorjobsorfailbackgroundchecksbysmokingmarijuana
>FinancialTimes
>
>
>BillGertzreports:DeputyDefenseSecretaryRobertWorkthisweek
>outlinedthePentagon'splanfordeterrenceagainstcyberattacksfrom
>nationstatessuchasChina,RussiaandNorthKorea.Intestimony
>TuesdaybeforetheSenateArmedServicesCommittee,Mr.Workalso
>confirmedthatthreemajorcyberattacksinrecentmonthswerelinkedto
>China,RussiaandNorthKorea.WashingtonTimes'InsidetheRing
>
>
>------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>*Russia/Europe*
>
>*Ukraine*
>
>AdrianKaratnyckywrites:Ukraine'snewlyvigorousdefensecapability
>cannotdeteranall-outRussianattack.Butamajoroffensiveis
>unlikelynow,asthecostsonbothsideswouldbemassive.Theconflict
>isunlikelytofade,either.ThestalemateinUkraine'seastunderscores
>theimportanceofbolsteringthecountry'sdeterrentcapabilities.And
>therearesignsthattheUnitedStatesandanincreasingnumberof
>Ukraine'swesternneighborsarecomingtoacceptthislogic.Atlantic
>Council
>
>
>*Russia*
>
>MashaGessenwrites:Mr.PutinisdeterminedtohaveRussiaagain
>acknowledgedasasuperpower,atleastequaltoAmericaindecidingthe
>fateofacountrylikeSyria.InthenameoffightingISIS,Russiawants
>theWesttoletitcontinuecarvingupUkraineandflexitsmusclesover
>muchofEurasia.InMr.Putinsspeech,andinhismind,thiswouldbe
>notonlylogicalbutplainlyright.NewYorkTimes
>
>
>StevenLeeMyerswrites:RussiasabstentionfromtheUnitedNations
>SecurityCouncilvoteauthorizingtheuseofmilitaryforcetostopthe
>slaughterinLibyain2011forcedPutinshandandsetthestageforhis
>returntothepresidencythenextyearandafarmoreconfrontational
>posturetotheUnitedStatesandEurope,onethatresonatesinthe
>RussianbombsexplodinginSyriatoday.-Politico
>
>
>*Europe*
>
>LatviaspresidentwarnedtheWestagainsttrustingMoscowasapartner
>asRussiaexpandsitsroleinSyria,pointingtoRussianPresident
>VladimirPutinssuccessingainingcontroloverpartsofUkrainewhile
>tryingtointimidateanddivideEurope.WallStreetJournal
>(subscriptionrequired)
>
>
>ThedesireofJeremyCorbyn,thenewleaderoftheLabourParty,to
>scrapBritainsnucleararsenaliswellknown,butwhenhesaidon
>Wednesdaythathewouldorderthemilitarynottousenuclearweaponsif
>hewereprimeminister,itcreatedafirestormofcriticism.NewYork
>Times
>
>
>TheheadofU.S.ArmyEuropeiseyeinganarrowsliverofland
>connectingPolandwithLithuania,concernedabouttheRussiantroopsand
>equipmenthehasbeenwatchingpileuponeitherside.Foreign
>PolicysTheCable
>
>
>ABritishgovernmentsourcedeniedonThursdayareportthatDavid
>Cameronwouldstepdownasprimeministerin2019,ayearbeforehis
>tenureends,andsaidhewouldservehisfullsecondterm.-Reuters
>
>
>FPISeniorFellowEllenBorkwrites:Ismayilovaremainsoptimisticabout
>Azerbaijansfuture.Ithinktherepressionmachineisaboutto
>collapse,shetoldthecourtthatsentencedher.Perhaps,sheventures,
>thedeclineinoilpricesthathavebuoyedthefortunesofseveral
>authoritarianregimes,isafactor,but,shesays,thereareother
>reasonsaswell.Oneofthesereasonsisus!Itcertainlywontbethe
>disapprovaloftheworldsdemocracies.WorldAffairsJournals
>DemocracyRoad
>
>
>DaliborRohacwrites:Tocountertheriseofanti-Europeanpopulismon
>boththefarrightandthefarleft,theEUneedsprofoundreforms.But
>itsjustasimportantthatitsexcessesdonotblindtheEUs
>conservativeandfree-marketcriticstothebigpicture.Abigpicture
>ofEuropethatis,byhistoricalstandards,uniquelyprosperousand
>peaceful.Oneonlyhopesitcanstaythatway.WallStreetJournal
>(subscriptionrequired)
>
>
>ReturntoTop<#150242d2da59e359_150241b5862a1754_15024>
>
>------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>*ObamaAdministration*
>
>PeterFeaverwrites:Wedonotarguethatbetterprocesswouldhave
>avoidedallofthemanifoldproblemsthisadministrationwillbequeath
>tothenext.Butwedoarguethatthenextpresidentwillneedtohavea
>betterprocessinordertogetthecountryoutoftheforeignpolicy
>ditchwehavelandedin.ForeignPolicysShadowGovernment
>
>
>ReturntoTop<#150242d2da59e359_150241b5862a1754_15024>
>
>------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>*DemocracyandHumanRights*
>
>TylerRoylancewrites:Today,therulersofRussia,China,andother
>authoritarianstateswouldliketocreateasimilararrangement,uniting
>allincumbentgovernmentsagainstcommonthreatstotheirgriponpower.
>Andliketheirpredecessors,thesedictatorsseelittledistinction
>amongtheirdiverseenemies.Independentjournalists,liberalopposition
>parties,nonviolentminorityadvocates,andmoderateIslamistsare
>lumpedtogetherwithmilitantjihadistsandbloodthirstyradicals.All
>areseenasextremists.FreedomHouse
>
>
>ReturntoTop<#150242d2da59e359_150241b5862a1754_15024>
>
>
>
>ReturntoTop<#150242d2da59e359_150241b5862a1754_15024>
>
>TheFPIOvernightBriefisadailyproductoftheForeignPolicy
>Initiative,whichseekstopromoteanactiveU.S.foreignpolicy
>committedtorobustsupportfordemocraticallies,humanrights,a
>strongAmericanmilitaryequippedtomeetthechallengesofthe21st
>century,andstrengtheningAmericasglobaleconomiccompetitiveness.To
>submitcommentsorsuggestions,emailovernight@foreignpolicyi.org
>.
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>TheForeignPolicyInitiative
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>Tounsubscribe,clickhere
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>TheForeignPolicyInitiative
>11DupontCircle,NWSuite325
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>Telephone:(202)296-3322
>E-mail:info@foreignpolicyi.org
>VisitOurWebsite
>
>DonatetoFPI
>
>
>----------Forwardedmessage----------
>
>From:*ForeignPolicy*>
>Date:Thu,Oct1,2015at7:55AM
>Subject:SituationReport,presentedbyFPGuidetoApplyingtoGrad
>School-Russiareachesoutwhileeconomystrugglesquestionsoverwho
>MoscowisbombingmoreF35issuesKunduzfightragesonPentagon
>fundingbillintroubleAirForcesendssearchandrescueteamstoTurkey
>To:waz2102@columbia.edu
>
>SituationReport:Russiareachesoutwhileeconomystrugglesquestions
>overwhoMoscowisbombingmoreF35issuesKunduzfightrageson
>PentagonfundingbillintroubleAirForcesendssearchandrescue
>teamstoTurkeyandlotsmore
>
>Ifyouhaveproblemsviewingthisemail,viewitinabrowser.
>Please
>feelfreetoforwardittoafriend
>.
>
>
>
>ForeignPolicy
>
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>*SITUATIONREPORT*
>
>*TheNationalSecurityDailyBrieffromForeignPolicy
>*
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>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>*Thursday,October1,2015*
>
>
>
>
>*ByPaulMcLearywithAdamRawnsley*
>
>*Samewar,butnew.*RussianbombsarefallinginSyria,andU.S.
>officialsarentsurewhattodoaboutit.AttheUnitedNationson
>Wednesday,SecretaryofStateJohnKerrystoodnexttoRussianForeign
>MinisterSergeiLavrovjustasRussiansortieswerewrappingup,
>arrivingfortheirmeetingjustsecondsafterLavrov*toldreporters*
>dont
>listentothePentagonaboutRussianstrikes.
>
>Thestrikesshouldreallycomeasnosurprise.U.S.officialshavebeen
>sayingfordaystheyexpectthebombingtobeginatanytime,andMoscow
>canhardlyaffordtoabandonitsMediterraneanclientstate.
>*/FPs/ColumLynch*and*PaulMcLeary**noted*
>Wednesday
>thatRussiasonlyoverseasmilitarybaseislocatedatTartusinSyria,
>whichhouses1,700RussiantroopsandgivesRussianshipsahomebase
>intheMediterranean,allowingMoscowamuchgreaterforwardpresence
>thanitwouldhaveotherwise.
>
>*Strategery.*NotonlyisSyriaimportantforRussiaasafootholdin
>theregion,butbyopeningupanintelsharingshopinBaghdadstaffed
>byRussian,Iranian,SyrianandIraqimilitarypersonnel,Russian
>PresidentVladimirPutinhasmadeMoscowimpossibletoignoreinthe
>fractiousdebateoverwhattodonextinthefightagainsttheIslamic
>State.
>
>*Paytoplay.*ButRussiasrecentmilitaryforaysintoCrimea,Ukraine,
>andSyriadontcomecheap.Moscowhas25,000hungrytroopsstationedin
>Crimea,issupportingrebels(anditsowntroops)inUkraine,andnow
>hasstretchedsupplylinesintoSyriatosupporttroopsanddozensof
>high-techfighterplanes.Giventhefallofoilpricesandwestern
>sanctions,however,Moscowseconomyhasbeenhurting.And*/FPs/David
>Francis*arrives*justintime*
>to
>breakdownPutinseconomicsituation,completewithchartsforthoseof
>uswhoare...visuallearners.
>
>*Goodrebels,badrebels.*So,whoaretheRussians
>bombing?*/FPs/DavidKenner**reports*
>that
>thoseRussianbombsarenthittingwhoMoscowsaidtheydhit,namely
>theIslamicState.Rather,Russianplaneslooktobeputtingordnanceon
>arebelgroupthatlikelywasvettedbytheCIA,usesU.S.-made
>weapons,andhaspubliclybackedtheinternationalcoalitionfighting
>theIslamicState.Thegroupalsoispartofalooseallianceof
>militiasfocusedonbattlingtheregimeofSyrianPresidentBashar
>al-Assad,whichmeansthattheearlyphaseofMoscowsmilitary
>interventionwillstrengthenAssadatleastasmuchasitwillweaken
>theIslamicState.
>
>*Kunduzcalling.*WiththehelpofAfghan,U.S.,andNATOSpecial
>Forces,theAfghanarmyisonthevergeofdoingsomethinginadaythat
>thattheIraqiarmyhasbeenunabletodoforalmosttwoyears:pusha
>rebelgroupoutofamajorcity.DaysaftertheTalibanstormedthecity
>ofKunduz,sendingAfghanforceswheelingoutoftown,thearmyand
>specialforcesreturnedtokickinthedoor,andhave*nowretaken*
>parts
>ofthecity.
>
>Thesituationisprettyfluidandthereisstillplentyoffighting
>*localsreport*
>,
>andthetwosidesaregoinghousetohouseinsomepartsoftown.The
>Talibancaptureofthecitycomesastheresultofa*sophisticated
>game*
>the
>grouphasbeenplayinginthenorthforthepasttwoyears,patiently
>inchingclosertothecitywhilewinningoverlocalsfedupwith
>governmentcorruption.
>
>*Hey,werestillhere!*WeshouldnotethattodayisOct.1--the
>firstdayoftheU.S.federalgovernmentsfiscalyear--andWashington
>hassomehowavoidedanothershutdown.Butthestruggleisreal.
>PresidentBarackObamahas*promisedtoveto*
>the
>defensespendingbillCongressisworkingonoveradisputeconcerning
>howtofundtheDepartmentofDefense.AtissueiswhetherCongress
>shouldcrashthroughspendingcapsimposedonthedefensebillby
>paddingasupplementalwartimeaccountwithanextra$38billion.The
>HousewillvoteonthebillThursday.
>
>*Anothergoodmorningtoyou.VladimirPutinsRussiaiseatingupall
>theheadlines,butitsabigworldoutthere.Asalways,yourvoices
>arewelcome.Pleasepassalonganytips,notes,orotherwiseinteresting
>bitsofinformationthatyoumayhaveatyourdisposal.Bestwayisto
>sendthemto**paul.mcleary@foreignpolicy.com*
>*oronTwitter:**@paulmcleary*
>*or**@arawnsley*
>*.*
>
>Ifyouhaventyetheard,FPisnowproducingpodcasts!Checkoutour
>twoprograms,TheEditorsRoundtable(TheE.R.)andGlobalThinkersfor
>moreforeignpolicyinsight,commentaryandanalysis.Youcansubscribe
>andlistentothemtodayoniTunesorStitcher:http://atfp.co/1K7nhrI
>
>*TopTweet*
>
>RT*@LizSly*
>Russia's
>mapofwhereISISis*iscompletelydifferent*
>to
>the*@ISW*
>'s.
>Kurdsshouldbecareful.SoshouldAleppo.
>
>Speakingofmaps,theInstitutefortheStudyofWarhasjust*comeout*
>with
>afreshset,showingwhereRussianwarplaneshavestruckinSyriasfar
>west,hundredsofkilometersawayfromanyknownIslamicStateheld
>territory.
>
>*Syria*
>
>Whatdoes*deconfliction*
>between
>forcesinSyrialookliketoRussia?AccordingtoBritain's*/Daily
>Telegraph/*,itinvolvesaRussiangeneralstrollingintotheU.S.
>embassyinBaghdadandsayingcurtly"welaunchSyriaairstrikesinone
>hour.Stayoutoftheway."
>
>*Drones*
>
>TheU.S.hasfoundnewmarketsforitsScanEagledrones.Instugotthe
>greenlighttosellthesmallishdronesalongwithlaunchersto
>Cameroon,Kenya,andPakistanforagrandtotalof$35millionworthof
>equipment,*according*
>to
>*/FlightGlobal/*.
>
>*Searchandrescue*
>
>MoreU.S.troopsareontheirwaytoTurkey.About300AirForce
>personnel*areheaded*
>to
>DiyarbakirAirBaseisinsouthernTurkey,whichsitsabout100miles
>fromtheborderwithSyria.Amongthoseairmenarepararescueteams,
>combatrescueofficersandspecialistswhospecializeinretrieving
>downedpilotsorisolatedtroops.Inotherwords,thePentagonis
>preparingfordownedpilots.
>
>TheteamsaredeployingwiththeirHH-60GPaveHawkhelicoptersand
>HC-130stocarryoutrescueoperations,ifneeded,*/AirForce
>Times/*JeffSchogol*reports*
>.
>Diyarbakirsitsover300milestotheeastofIncirlikAirBase,where
>U.S.F-16shavebeenflyingmissionsagainsttheIslamicStatesinceAugust.
>
>*Gulf*
>
>TheU.S.Navycapturedahostof*RussianandIranianweapons*
>aboard
>asmall,unregistereddhowitstoppedoffthecoastofYemenlastweek,
>accordingtothe*/AssociatedPress/*.TheUSS/ForrestSherman/,a
>guidedmissiledestroyer,stoppedtheshipandfoundanti-tankweapons
>aboardwhichtheIraniancrewclaimedwereboundforSomalia.U.S.
>officialssaidit'spossiblethattheweaponswereultimatelyboundfor
>theconflictinYemen,withSomaliaasastoppingoffpoint.The
>Saudi-ledcoalitionatwarinYemenbelievesthatIranhasbeensecretly
>supplyingtheHouthimovement,whichit'stryingtodisplacefrompower
>inthecountry.
>
>*AirForce*
>
>WhenwillweknowwhowillbuildtheAirForce'snextgenerationbomber?
>Sometimeinthe*nextcoupleofmonths*
>,
>accordingtotheservice.Lt.Gen.ArnoldBunchtoldCongressional
>officialsthattheAirForceplanstotakeitstimeselectingfromthe
>bidsofferedbyRaytheonandthejointtheteamofLockheedandBoeing.
>Sourcesintheflyingbranchtell*/Reuters/*thatthecompanieswill
>submittheirfinalproposalstotheDefenseDepartmentthisweek.
>
>*MoreF-35trouble*
>
>Well,thisishardlyunexpected.Addingyetanothergrimdatapointto
>theyearsofheadachesthatthewildlyexpensive,andconstantly
>troubled,F-35programhascausedtheU.S.AirForce,*/DefenseNews
>/LaraSeligman*and*AaronMehta**report*
>that
>skinnypilotsneednotapply.Pilotsweighinglessthan136lbs.have
>beenfoundtobeatincreasedriskofinjuryduringlow-speedejections,
>andasaresult,anyfliernotmeetingthatweighthasbeengrounded
>untiltheproblemcanbefixed.
>
>
>
>
>
>*Register*
>
>*atForeignPolicy.comtoreceiveSituationReportandotherFP
>newsletters.*
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>*TRENDINGONFOREIGNPOLICY.COM
>*
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>*TheAgeofInfection
>*
>
>*byFerrisJabr*
>
>
>
>
>
>*JapansTrans-FriendlyComicBookRevolution
>*
>
>*byBrittPeterson*
>
>
>
>
>
>*CentralAsiasIslandofDemocracyisSinking
>*
>
>*byNateSchenkkan*
>
>
>
>
>
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>
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>
>Thisemailwassenttowaz2102@columbia.edu
>byfp@foreignpolicy.com
>.
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>GrahamHoldingsCompany.Allcontents2015TheSlateGroup,LLC.All
>rightsreserved.ForeignPolicy,11DUPONTCIRCLENW,SUITE600,
>WASHINGTONDC20036
>
>
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>
>
>----------Forwardedmessage----------
>From:*ForeignPolicy*>
>Date:Wed,Sep30,2015at9:02PM
>Subject:Editors'Picks:Meettheanti-ISISfightersPutinjustbombed
>inSyriaandforColombiasdisplaced,homecomingisstillalongwayoff
>To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu
>
>
>
>Ifyouhaveproblemsviewingthisemail,viewitinabrowser.
>
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>ForeignPolicy
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>*Wednesday,September30*
>
>WelcometoEditors'Picks,FP'sround-upoftheday'sbestarticles.
>
>Today,welookathowdisplacedColombiansseethepeacedeal,whether
>Godishavingaclimatemoment,andtheCongolesepresidentsbidtobuy
>time.
>
>*1*
>
>
>
>
>
>*FRIENDSLIKETHESE:*
>Moscow
>saysitsenemyisISIS,buttheinitialphaseofitsairwarinSyria
>hitAmerican-backedrebels,FPsDavidKennerreports:Readmore
>
>
>
>
 From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 10/01/201509:49:34AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:FPIOvernightBrief:October1,2015[RelevanttoUAandRegion].......Fwd:FPSituationReport[RelevanttoUAand
Subject:
Region].....FORBES/PAULRG:as-russia-launches-air-strikes-in-syria-obama-must-make-sure-we-dont-forget-ukraine........FPED/Meet...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Thursday,October01,20159:35AM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:Fwd:FPIOvernightBrief:October1,2015[RelevanttoUAandRegion].......Fwd:FPSituationReport[RelevanttoUAand
Region].....FORBES/PAULRG:as-russia-launches-air-strikes-in-syria-obama-must-make-sure-we-dont-forget-ukraine........FPED/Meet
...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:paulroderickgregory<pgregory@stanford.edu>
Date:Thu,Oct1,2015at9:07AM
Subject:Lobby
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

Walter:

IbelievePutin'sactionsinSyriacouldforceObamatocarryouttheUkraineFreedomAct,asIargueinthisForbespiece.
Canyougetthispointtothosewhomighthavesomelobbyingpower?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2015/09/30/asrussialaunchesairstrikesinsyriaobamamust
makesurewedontforgetukraine/

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:ForeignPolicyInitiative<info@foreignpolicyi.org>
Date:Thu,Oct1,2015at7:33AM
Subject:FPIOvernightBrief:October1,2015
To:Walter<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

FollowandSupportFPI

FPIOvernightBrief
October1,2015
 TableofContents
MiddleEast/NorthAfrica,Asia,Security,Russia/Europe,Americas,Africa,ObamaAdministration,DemocracyandHuman
Rights,Events

Announcements TheMust-Reads
The2015FPIForumwillbeheldattheNewseumin RussiansstriketargetsinSyria,butnotinISISareas
Washington,DCtoday.
AdministrationscramblesasRussiaseizesinitiativeinSyria
ApplicationsforFPI's2015NewYorkLeadersProgramare
Rogin:RussiarisksbeingprosecutedforSyriaswarcrimes
duetomorrow.
Boot,Pregent:HowObamacouldsalvagehisISIS
BesuretoencourageyourcolleaguestosignupfortheFPI
strategy
OvernightBrief.
FPIsAdesnik,Kahn:PreventingIranfromexploitingthe
Ifyousupportourmissionandwork,pleaseconsidermaking nucleardeal
atax-deductibledonationtoFPItoday.
Abbas:PalestiniansnolongerboundbyOslo,Abrams
ReadthenewbriefingbooksfromFPIandtheJohnHay responds
Initiative.
Kunduzwonafteryears-longstrategy,USstrugglestohelp
ISWispublishingregularupdatesonthesituationinIraqand Afghans
Syria,andAEI'sCriticalThreatsProjectisdoingsoforthe
MackenzieEaglen:ThetopchangesinthenewNDAA
Yemenconflict.
FPIsEllenBork:IgnoringhumanrightsinAzerbaijan

MiddleEast/NorthAfrica
Syria

RussianaircraftcarriedoutabombingattackagainstSyrianoppositionfightersonWednesday,includingatleastonegrouptrainedbytheC.I.A.,
elicitingangryprotestsfromAmericanofficialsandplungingthecomplexsectarianwarthereintodangerousnewterritory.NewYorkTimes

BlindsidedbytheunexpectedswiftnessofRussiasairattacksinSyria,theObamaadministrationscrambledWednesdaytoretakethediplomatic
andmilitaryinitiatives,sayingthatitwouldnotbebulliedintosupportingPresidentBasharal-Assadandthatitwasabouttosignificantlyexpand
itsownSyrianairoperations.WashingtonPost

TheU.S.andRussiahaveagreedonspecificstepsthatcouldnudgeforwardaSyrianpoliticalprocess,U.S.SecretaryofStateJohnKerrysaid
Wednesday.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

RussianofficialsvehementlydefendedthecountrysairstrikecampaigninSyriaThursday,denyingreportsofciviliandeathsandWestern
accusationsthatthecountrywastargetingU.S.-backedrebelsinsteadoftheIslamicState.WashingtonPost

WhenRussiadeclareditwouldstarthittingtheIslamicStateinSyria,opponentsofPresidentBasharal-Assadwereimmediatelyconcernedthatit
wouldtargetthemaswellinsurgentswhorebelledlongbeforetheIslamicState,alsocalledISISorISIL,existedinitscurrentform.Buteven
theyweretakenabackonWednesdaywhenRussiasveryfirstairstrikesinSyriaappearedtotargetareaswheretheIslamicStatehasnoknown
presence,includingsomethathavesymbolicresonanceasstrongholdsoftheearly,locallybasedoppositionthatsprangupamongarmy
defectors.NewYorkTimes

TherushofmigrantsintoEurope,combinedwiththeContinentsfearthatIslamicStatefightersmaycrossporousborderstocarryoutattacks,
hasstirrednewurgencyamongWesternleaderstoaddressthewarinSyriaandpushharderforanendtoit.NewYorkTimes

FrancehasopenedtheworldsfirstcriminalinquiryintotortureunderPresidentBasharal-AssadofSyria,officialsandrightsadvocatessaid
Wednesday,anindirectrebuketoRussiaanditseffortstorehabilitateMr.Assadaspartofaninternationalanti-Islamistcoalition.NewYork
Times

TheU.S.forcesbombingIslamicStatetargetsinSyriawillnotyieldtoRussianjets,DefenseSecretaryAshCartersaidWednesday.Healso
confirmedthatRussiasfirststrikesonWednesdaywerenotinareaswheretheIslamicStateoperatesandthatraisestheriskofcollision
betweenRussianandcoalitionforces.DefenseOne

FouryearsintoSyria'scivilwarandmorethanayearintoaU.S.-ledbombingcampaignagainsttheIslamicStateterroristgroup,theU.S.military
nowfacesanew,potentiallyfarmoredangerousprospect:backingtheoppositesideoftheRussianAirForce.-Politico

[W]ithRussianowsharingintelligencewiththeIraqis,Syrians,andIraniansfromanewlyformedoperationscenterinBaghdad,Washingtonand
MoscowmustresolvelargerdividesoverthefutureofSyrianPresidentBasharal-AssadandtheflailingfightagainsttheIslamicStateinIraqand
Syria.ForeignPolicy

MittRomney,2012GOPpresidentialcandidateandformerMassachusettsgoverner,slammedPresidentObamaonhishandlingofthecrisisin
Syria.TheHill

Sen.JohnMcCain(R-Ariz.)slammedtheObamaadministrationonWednesday,suggestingtheyaretoblameforRussia'sincreasedmilitary
presenceinSyria.TheHillsFloorAction

Sen.BobCorker(R-Tenn.)isinvitingSecretaryofStateJohnKerrytotestifybeforetheForeignRelationsCommitteeovertheadministration's
policyinSyria,asRussiabeginsacampaignofairstrikesinthecountry.TheHillsFloorAction

JoshRoginreports:NowthattheRussiangovernmentisopenlyaidingtheSyrianarmy,RussianofficialsallthewayuptoPresidentVladimirPutin
couldbeprosecutedforabettingwarcrimes,accordingtoformerU.S.officialsandinternationallawexperts.BloombergView

Iran

GrowingspeculationthatJohnKerrywillreceiveaNobelPeacePrizeforfinalizingtheIraniannucleardealisgeneratingrenewedcriticismofhis
closerelationshipwiththeIranianforeignminister,JavadZarif,akeypublicfaceforthetheocraticregimewhoisrumoredtobeaprobableco-
recipientwithKerry.WashingtonFreeBeacon

AgroupofRepublicansenatorsarepushingtoblockreliefofIran'ssanctionsuntilitpaysbillionsinterrorismfinesamovethatcould
potentiallyunderminePresidentObama'sIrannucleardeal.TheHillsFloorAction

Sen.TedCruzwantstheStateDepartmenttoclassifyaneliteIranianmilitaryforceasaterroristorganization.TheHillsFloorAction

KennethStethem,aformerNavySEALandthebrotherofanAmericanvictimofIranianterrorism,calledonPresidentObamatosupportabillthat
wouldcompelIrantopaythe$43.5billionitowestovictimsofterrorismbeforereceivingsanctionsrelief.WashingtonFreeBeacon

FPIPolicyDirectorDavidAdesnikandSeniorPolicyAnalystTzviKahnwrite:ThedebateoverthenucleardealhardlyendedwhenPresident
ObamaheldtogetherenoughSenateDemocratstofilibusteraresolutionofdisapproval.Rather,thedebatewillnowfocusonpreventingIranfrom
extractingfurtherconcessionsandexploitingthedealsmanyloopholes.Boththeopponentsofthedealanditsmanyreluctantsupporterscan
nowcontinuetogethertheunfinishedworkofpreventingIranfromdevelopinganuclearweapon.ForeignPolicyInitiative

EmanueleOttolenghiwrites:AmoreaggressiveapproachtocounteringtheIRGCiscrucialtocompensateforthenuclearagreement's
shortcomings.SigningthenucleardealisbynomeanstheendofcounteringtheGuard'sambitionsinmanyways,itisjustthebeginning.
TheHill

Iraq

KurdishforcessaidtheydroveIslamicStatemilitantsoutofvillagesneartheoilcityofKirkukinnorthernIraqonWednesday,inanoffensive
backedbyairstrikesfromtheU.S.-ledcoalition.-Reuters

EliLakereports:WhentheIslamicStatein2014beganitsrampagethroughoutIraq,manyofthedisplacedpeoplefoundasafehaveninthe
Kurdistanprovincesinthenorth.Thatsafehavenisnowindanger.BloombergView

Rep.AlceeHastings(D-FL)writes:Whilethegeo-politicalcomplexitiesthatexistintheregionareunquestionablydaunting,onethingisclear:
thousandsofwomencurrentlyexperiencingthishorrifictreatment,andthefewwhohavebeenluckyenoughtoescape,needthesupportofthe
internationalcommunity.RollCall

Turkey

TheAirForceisdeployingabout300airmentoDiyarbakirAirBaseinTurkeytofind,protectandrescueanyU.S.orcoalitionpilotswhohaveto
ejectoverIraqorSyria.MilitaryTimes

AprominentTurkishjournalistwashospitalizedafteranattackbyunknownassailantsoutsidehishome,hisnewspapersaidonThursday,inthe
latestsignofdeterioratingconditionsforthemediaunderPresidentTayyipErdogan.-Reuters

Editorial:ConsideringthepotentialtodisruptthewaragainsttheIslamicState,theObamaadministrationhasreactedmildlytoMr.Erdogans
campaign.AStateDepartmentspokesmanhasbeencriticaloftheattacksonthemedia,sayingthequalityofTurkeysdemocracymatterstous.
HealsosaidtheadministrationistalkingtotheTurkishgovernmentaboutU.S.supportfortheKurdishforcesinSyria.Giventheslimchancesthat
Mr.Erdoganwillrespondreasonably,WashingtoncanonlyhopethatTurkishvotersrebuffhimagain.WashingtonPost

ReturntoTop
Asia
Afghanistan

KunduzresidentsandprovincialofficialssaidthecityremainedinTalibanhandsonThursday,despiteclaimsfromtheAfghangovernmentthatit
hadretakenthecity.NewYorkTimes

Inapotentialmajorshiftinpolicy,U.S.militarycommanderswanttokeepatleastafewthousandAmericantroopsinAfghanistanbeyond2016,
citingafragilesecuritysituationhighlightedbytheTaliban'scaptureofthenortherncityofKunduzthisweekaswellasrecentmilitantinroadsin
thesouth.AssociatedPress

U.S.andAfghanofficialspitchedinvestorsWednesdayondoingbusinessonmilitaryairfieldsthatNATOtroopswillwithdrawfromin
Afghanistan,evenastheTalibaninsurgencyragesoninthecountry.AssociatedPress

AhmedRashidwrites:TheTalibanscaptureofthenorthernAfghancityofKunduzisacatastrophicblowtothebeleagueredgovernmentof
PresidentAshrafGhani,whohasbeeninofficeforayear.Butithasmuchwiderimplicationsfortheregion.FinancialTimes

South/CentralAsia

Pro-RussianpartieslooksettoretaintheirdominancewhenKyrgyzstanelectsanewparliamentonSunday,buttheapparentstabilitymasks
ethnictensionsandrisingIslamistradicalismintheformerSovietrepublic.-Reuters

NateSchennkanwrites:Thepost-2010constitutionwassupposedtocreateaparliamentaryrepublic,butthereareworryingsignsthatcurrent
PresidentAlmazbekAtambaevistheonecallingtheshots.Kyrgyzstanmaynotbeheadedtoadictatorship,butneitherisitbecomingmore
democratic.Whathappened?ForeignPolicysDemocracyLab

China

Persistentheadwindsareholdingbacktheworldssecond-largesteconomydespitesomenascentsignsofimprovementinSeptemberforChinas
strugglingmanufacturingsector.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

ChinahasquietlybegunconstructiononitsfirstdomesticaircraftcarrierinthesamenorthernChineseshipyardthatrefurbishedthePeoples
LiberationArmyNavyscurrentSoviet-eracarrier,USNINewshaslearned.USNINews

AnewexplosionrockedacountytowninsouthwesternGuangxiprovinceonThursdaymorning,statemediareported,justhoursafterpolice
arresteda33year-oldmanforpossibleinvolvementinaseriesofmailbombsthatkilledatleastsevenpeopleonWednesday.FinancialTimes

Atleast50peoplediedinanattacklastmonthatacoalmineinChina'sfar-westernXinjiang,RadioFreeAsiareportedonThursday,asavisiting
seniorleaderwarnedthatthesecuritysituationintheviolence-proneregionwas"veryserious".-Reuters

EastAsia

PrimeMinisterShinzoAbesnewcabinetcouldincludeafamiliarnameKoizumiasMr.Abeseekstoshoreuppublicsupportafteralongbattle
oversecuritybillsthissummerdentedhispopularity.WSJsJapanRealTime

TaiwanPresidentMaYing-jeousaidonThursdaytheislandwasnotreadytodiscussunificationwithChina,sendingafirmmessagetoan
increasinglyassertiveBeijingeagertoabsorbwhatitconsidersarenegadeprovince.-Reuters

RichardFontainewrites:NowPyongyanghasannouncedanimminentsatellitelaunchexpectedtodemonstrateitsballistic-missilecapabilities.
Armedwithnuclearandchemicalweapons,KimJongUnposesanenduringthreattotheSouth.ThishasmotivatedSouthKoreaandChina
recentlytodevelopwarmerties,somethingthathasntgoneunnoticedacrosstheregion.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

SoutheastAsia

AwarofwordsisbeingfoughtinMyanmar,largelyoversocialmedia,betweennationalistBuddhistmonksandoppositionleaderAungSanSuu
Kyi'sparty,highlightingdivisionsintherun-uptoageneralelectiononNov.8.-Reuters

TheruralheartlandofThailand'sdeposedleaderYingluckShinawatraandherexiledbillionairebrotherThaksinishurtingasaresultofthemilitary
government'seconomicpolicies,stirringdiscontentandthethreatofprotests.-Reuters

Editorial:EvenifMr.Najibstepsdown,tensionsarelikelytoincreaseforsometime.AfterthePrimeMinistersackedhisdeputyandrival,
MuhyiddinYassin,inJulyandpurgedotherreformersfromUMNO,Malaychauvinistshavemovedintopositionsofpower.Malaysiasminorities
havegoodreasontofeartheywillagainbescapegoatsinthecountryspowerstruggles.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

Trans-PacificPartnership

TradeministersfortheUnitedStatesand11otherPacificnationsgatheredinAtlantaonWednesdaytotrytoreachagreementonthelargest
regionalfree-tradepactever.Butknottydifferencespersist,andantitradeblastsfromAmericanpresidentialcandidateshavenoteasedprospects
foranydeal.NewYorkTimes

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Security
DefenseBudget

InadisputewithRepublicansoverhowdefensewouldbefunded,PresidentObamaplanstovetothe2016defensepolicybilldueforavoteinthe
HouseonThursday,aWhiteHousespokesmantoldreportersWednesday.DefenseNews

Theconferenceversionofthedefensepolicybillfor2016putstheNavyonnoticeinmultiplehigh-priorityprograms.Inthreeareascarriers,the
UCLASSdrone,andLCSSen.JohnMcCainstoughpositionsprevailedovertheHouse,albeitwithsomecompromisesaroundtheedges.Ina
fourthTiconderoga-classcruisersitwasaHouseleader,Rep.RandyForbes,whopushedharshermeasuresandgotapartialvictory.
BreakingDefense

TheNavywouldfaceshipdeliverydelays,slowdowninitsadvanceprocurementeffortsandmaybeblockedfromstartinganaircraftcarrier
refuelingifashort-termcontinuingresolution,settostarttomorrow,isextendedpastDecember.USNINews

Theannualdefensebillauthorizes$411milliontoupguntheArmysStrykervehicles.ThecompromisegoeswiththeSenateshigherfunding
levels:$314millionformodificationworkand$97millionforR&D.Thatsaheadyincreasefromthe$0.00thepresidentsbudgetincludedforthe
initiative,whichemergedmid-yearasaresponsetoRussianaggressioninEurope.BreakingDefense

U.S.lawmakersagainrejectedtheAirForcesproposaltoretiretheA-10ThunderboltIIattackaircraft,callingthedecisionmisguided.DOD
Buzz

MackenzieEaglenwrites:HighlightsofthisyearsdefensepolicybillcraftedbySenatorsJohnMcCain(R-AZ)andJackReed(D-RI)and
RepresentativesMacThornberry(R-TX)andAdamSmith(D-WA)includesignificantbipartisanchangesinacquisitionreform,militaryretirement,
USpolicyintheSouthChinaSea,andastrategyfortheeventualclosureofGuantanamoBay.BreakingDefense

Defense

Inwhatappearstobethefirstshotinapotentiallygroundbreakingchangetodefensemergersandacquisitions,FrankKendall,thePentagons
topacquisitionofficial,saidtheDepartmentofDefenseplanstoaskCongresstocreaterulesthatcouldhindermergersbetweenprimecontractors.
DefenseNews

TheUSAirForceisstillworkingthroughthedetailsofacontractawardforthenext-generationbomber,andexpectsanannouncementonthefinal
downselectinthenextfewmonths.DefenseNews

LockheedMartinCorp.hasmorethan$700millionatstakeinconvincingtheU.S.Navyitcanremedyflawsinnewunderwaterdronesintendedto
huntdownminesfromasafedistance.-Bloomberg

DefenseofficialsmustsubmitaproposaltoCongressforcompletelyweaningthemilitarycommissaryandexchangesystemsofftaxpayerfunding,
accordingtoapotentiallyexplosiveprovisionburiedinthenewconferenceagreementonthe2016defenseauthorizationbill.MilitaryTimes

U.S.lawmakersonTuesdayagreedtoincreasepharmacyco-paysthatlargelyaffectmilitaryretireesaspartofasweepingdefensebill.
Military.com

WomeninCombat

DefenseSecretaryAshtonB.CartersaidWednesdaythathewillnotreviewrecommendationsfromthemilitaryservicesonhowwomenshouldbe
integratedintothemilitaryforsomemonths,addingthattheywillfirstgotothePentagonsnewtopmilitaryofficer,Gen.JosephF.Dunford.
WashingtonPostsCheckpoint

AirForceSecretaryDeborahLeeJameshassubmittedtoDefenseSecretaryAshCarterherrecommendationsonopeninguptheAirForce'slast
male-onlycombatjobstowomen.MilitaryTimes

MissileDefense

TheNationalDefenseAuthorizationActthathasemergedfromconferencenegotiationswouldadd$30millionfortheplanninganddesignofan
EastCoastmissiledefensesiteandspeedupitspossibledeployment,avictoryforsomecongressionalRepublicanswhohavelongfoughtfor
tractiontomoveforwardwiththepossibleproject.DefenseNews

Cybersecurity

TheUnitedStatesadversariesseecyberwarfareasapotentialAmericanvulnerabilityinamilitaryengagement,thePentagonsnumbertwo
civiliantoldtheHouseArmedServicesCommitteeWednesday.USNINews

Themajorityoffederalagencieshavenotaddressedsignificantweaknessesincybersecurity,assecurityincidentsincreasedbymorethan1,000
percentinlessthanadecade,accordingtotheGovernmentAccountabilityOffice(GAO).WashingtonFreeBeacon

TheFederalBureauofInvestigationislookingtoenlistteenagersinitsfightagainstcybercrimebeforetheyareluredintohigh-payingprivate
sectorjobsorfailbackgroundchecksbysmokingmarijuanaFinancialTimes

BillGertzreports:DeputyDefenseSecretaryRobertWorkthisweekoutlinedthePentagon'splanfordeterrenceagainstcyberattacksfromnation
statessuchasChina,RussiaandNorthKorea.IntestimonyTuesdaybeforetheSenateArmedServicesCommittee,Mr.Workalsoconfirmedthat
threemajorcyberattacksinrecentmonthswerelinkedtoChina,RussiaandNorthKorea.WashingtonTimes'InsidetheRing

Russia/Europe
Ukraine

AdrianKaratnyckywrites:Ukraine'snewlyvigorousdefensecapabilitycannotdeteranall-outRussianattack.Butamajoroffensiveisunlikely
now,asthecostsonbothsideswouldbemassive.Theconflictisunlikelytofade,either.ThestalemateinUkraine'seastunderscoresthe
importanceofbolsteringthecountry'sdeterrentcapabilities.AndtherearesignsthattheUnitedStatesandanincreasingnumberofUkraine's
westernneighborsarecomingtoacceptthislogic.AtlanticCouncil

Russia

MashaGessenwrites:Mr.PutinisdeterminedtohaveRussiaagainacknowledgedasasuperpower,atleastequaltoAmericaindecidingthefate
ofacountrylikeSyria.InthenameoffightingISIS,RussiawantstheWesttoletitcontinuecarvingupUkraineandflexitsmusclesovermuchof
Eurasia.InMr.Putinsspeech,andinhismind,thiswouldbenotonlylogicalbutplainlyright.NewYorkTimes

StevenLeeMyerswrites:RussiasabstentionfromtheUnitedNationsSecurityCouncilvoteauthorizingtheuseofmilitaryforcetostopthe
slaughterinLibyain2011forcedPutinshandandsetthestageforhisreturntothepresidencythenextyearandafarmoreconfrontational
posturetotheUnitedStatesandEurope,onethatresonatesintheRussianbombsexplodinginSyriatoday.-Politico

Europe

LatviaspresidentwarnedtheWestagainsttrustingMoscowasapartnerasRussiaexpandsitsroleinSyria,pointingtoRussianPresident
VladimirPutinssuccessingainingcontroloverpartsofUkrainewhiletryingtointimidateanddivideEurope.WallStreetJournal(subscription
required)

ThedesireofJeremyCorbyn,thenewleaderoftheLabourParty,toscrapBritainsnucleararsenaliswellknown,butwhenhesaidonWednesday
thathewouldorderthemilitarynottousenuclearweaponsifhewereprimeminister,itcreatedafirestormofcriticism.NewYorkTimes

TheheadofU.S.ArmyEuropeiseyeinganarrowsliveroflandconnectingPolandwithLithuania,concernedabouttheRussiantroopsand
equipmenthehasbeenwatchingpileuponeitherside.ForeignPolicysTheCable

ABritishgovernmentsourcedeniedonThursdayareportthatDavidCameronwouldstepdownasprimeministerin2019,ayearbeforehistenure
ends,andsaidhewouldservehisfullsecondterm.-Reuters

FPISeniorFellowEllenBorkwrites:IsmayilovaremainsoptimisticaboutAzerbaijansfuture.Ithinktherepressionmachineisabouttocollapse,
shetoldthecourtthatsentencedher.Perhaps,sheventures,thedeclineinoilpricesthathavebuoyedthefortunesofseveralauthoritarian
regimes,isafactor,but,shesays,thereareotherreasonsaswell.Oneofthesereasonsisus!Itcertainlywontbethedisapprovaloftheworlds
democracies.WorldAffairsJournalsDemocracyRoad

DaliborRohacwrites:Tocountertheriseofanti-Europeanpopulismonboththefarrightandthefarleft,theEUneedsprofoundreforms.Butits
justasimportantthatitsexcessesdonotblindtheEUsconservativeandfree-marketcriticstothebigpicture.AbigpictureofEuropethatis,by
historicalstandards,uniquelyprosperousandpeaceful.Oneonlyhopesitcanstaythatway.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

ReturntoTop

ObamaAdministration
PeterFeaverwrites:Wedonotarguethatbetterprocesswouldhaveavoidedallofthemanifoldproblemsthisadministrationwillbequeathtothe
next.Butwedoarguethatthenextpresidentwillneedtohaveabetterprocessinordertogetthecountryoutoftheforeignpolicyditchwehave
landedin.ForeignPolicysShadowGovernment

ReturntoTop
DemocracyandHumanRights
TylerRoylancewrites:Today,therulersofRussia,China,andotherauthoritarianstateswouldliketocreateasimilararrangement,unitingall
incumbentgovernmentsagainstcommonthreatstotheirgriponpower.Andliketheirpredecessors,thesedictatorsseelittledistinctionamong
theirdiverseenemies.Independentjournalists,liberaloppositionparties,nonviolentminorityadvocates,andmoderateIslamistsarelumped
togetherwithmilitantjihadistsandbloodthirstyradicals.Allareseenasextremists.FreedomHouse

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From:ForeignPolicy<fp@foreignpolicy.com>
Date:Thu,Oct1,2015at7:55AM
Subject:SituationReport,presentedbyFPGuidetoApplyingtoGradSchool-Russiareachesoutwhileeconomystruggles
questionsoverwhoMoscowisbombingmoreF35issuesKunduzfightragesonPentagonfundingbillintroubleAirForce
sendssearchandrescueteamstoTurkey
To:waz2102@columbia.edu

S i t u a t i o n R e p o r t : R u s s i a r e a c h e s o u t w h i l e e c o n o m y s t r u g g l e s q u e s t i o n s o v e r w h o M o s c o w i s b o m b i n g m o r e F 3 5 i s s u e s K u n d u z f i g h t r a g e s o n P e n t a g o n f u n d i n g b i l l i n t r o u b l e A i r F o r c e s e n d s s e a r c h a n d r e s c u e t e a m s t o T u r k e y a n d l o t s m o r e

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FollowUs:

ByPaulMcLearywithAdamRawnsley

Samewar,butnew.RussianbombsarefallinginSyria,andU.S.officialsarentsure
whattodoaboutit.AttheUnitedNationsonWednesday,SecretaryofStateJohnKerry
stoodnexttoRussianForeignMinisterSergeiLavrovjustasRussiansortieswere
wrappingup,arrivingfortheirmeetingjustsecondsafterLavrovtoldreportersdont
listentothePentagonaboutRussianstrikes.

Thestrikesshouldreallycomeasnosurprise.U.S.officialshavebeensayingfordays
theyexpectthebombingtobeginatanytime,andMoscowcanhardlyaffordtoabandon
 itsMediterraneanclientstate.FPsColumLynchandPaulMcLearynotedWednesday
thatRussiasonlyoverseasmilitarybaseislocatedatTartusinSyria,whichhouses
1,700RussiantroopsandgivesRussianshipsahomebaseintheMediterranean,
allowingMoscowamuchgreaterforwardpresencethanitwouldhaveotherwise.

Strategery.NotonlyisSyriaimportantforRussiaasafootholdintheregion,butby
openingupanintelsharingshopinBaghdadstaffedbyRussian,Iranian,Syrianand
Iraqimilitarypersonnel,RussianPresidentVladimirPutinhasmadeMoscowimpossible
toignoreinthefractiousdebateoverwhattodonextinthefightagainsttheIslamic
State.

Paytoplay.ButRussiasrecentmilitaryforaysintoCrimea,Ukraine,andSyriadont
comecheap.Moscowhas25,000hungrytroopsstationedinCrimea,issupportingrebels
(anditsowntroops)inUkraine,andnowhasstretchedsupplylinesintoSyriatosupport
troopsanddozensofhigh-techfighterplanes.Giventhefallofoilpricesandwestern
sanctions,however,Moscowseconomyhasbeenhurting.AndFPsDavid
FrancisarrivesjustintimetobreakdownPutinseconomicsituation,completewith
chartsforthoseofuswhoare...visuallearners.

Goodrebels,badrebels.So,whoaretheRussiansbombing?FPsDavid
KennerreportsthatthoseRussianbombsarenthittingwhoMoscowsaidtheydhit,
namelytheIslamicState.Rather,Russianplaneslooktobeputtingordnanceonarebel
groupthatlikelywasvettedbytheCIA,usesU.S.-madeweapons,andhaspublicly
backedtheinternationalcoalitionfightingtheIslamicState.Thegroupalsoispartofa
looseallianceofmilitiasfocusedonbattlingtheregimeofSyrianPresidentBasharal-
Assad,whichmeansthattheearlyphaseofMoscowsmilitaryinterventionwill
strengthenAssadatleastasmuchasitwillweakentheIslamicState.

Kunduzcalling.WiththehelpofAfghan,U.S.,andNATOSpecialForces,theAfghan
armyisonthevergeofdoingsomethinginadaythatthattheIraqiarmyhasbeen
unabletodoforalmosttwoyears:pusharebelgroupoutofamajorcity.Daysafterthe
TalibanstormedthecityofKunduz,sendingAfghanforceswheelingoutoftown,the
armyandspecialforcesreturnedtokickinthedoor,andhavenowretakenpartsofthe
city.

Thesituationisprettyfluidandthereisstillplentyoffightinglocalsreport,andthetwo
sidesaregoinghousetohouseinsomepartsoftown.TheTalibancaptureofthecity
comesastheresultofasophisticatedgamethegrouphasbeenplayinginthenorth
forthepasttwoyears,patientlyinchingclosertothecitywhilewinningoverlocalsfedup
withgovernmentcorruption.

Hey,werestillhere!WeshouldnotethattodayisOct.1--thefirstdayoftheU.S.
federalgovernmentsfiscalyear--andWashingtonhassomehowavoidedanother
shutdown.Butthestruggleisreal.PresidentBarackObamahaspromisedtovetothe
defensespendingbillCongressisworkingonoveradisputeconcerninghowtofundthe
DepartmentofDefense.AtissueiswhetherCongressshouldcrashthroughspending
capsimposedonthedefensebillbypaddingasupplementalwartimeaccountwithan
extra$38billion.TheHousewillvoteonthebillThursday.

Anothergoodmorningtoyou.VladimirPutinsRussiaiseatingupallthe
headlines,butitsabigworldoutthere.Asalways,yourvoicesarewelcome.
Pleasepassalonganytips,notes,orotherwiseinterestingbitsofinformation
thatyoumayhaveatyourdisposal.Bestwayistosendthem
topaul.mcleary@foreignpolicy.comoronTwitter:@paulmclearyor@arawnsley.

Ifyouhaventyetheard,FPisnowproducingpodcasts!Checkoutourtwoprograms,
TheEditorsRoundtable(TheE.R.)andGlobalThinkersformoreforeignpolicyinsight,
commentaryandanalysis.YoucansubscribeandlistentothemtodayoniTunesor
Stitcher:http://atfp.co/1K7nhrI

TopTweet

RT@LizSlyRussia'smapofwhereISISisiscompletelydifferenttothe@ISW's.
Kurdsshouldbecareful.SoshouldAleppo.

Speakingofmaps,theInstitutefortheStudyofWarhasjustcomeoutwithafreshset,
 showingwhereRussianwarplaneshavestruckinSyriasfarwest,hundredsofkilometers
awayfromanyknownIslamicStateheldterritory.

Syria

WhatdoesdeconflictionbetweenforcesinSyrialookliketoRussia?Accordingto
Britain'sDailyTelegraph,itinvolvesaRussiangeneralstrollingintotheU.S.embassyin
Baghdadandsayingcurtly"welaunchSyriaairstrikesinonehour.Stayoutoftheway."

Drones

TheU.S.hasfoundnewmarketsforitsScanEagledrones.Instugotthegreenlightto
sellthesmallishdronesalongwithlauncherstoCameroon,Kenya,andPakistanfora
grandtotalof$35millionworthofequipment,accordingtoFlightGlobal.

Searchandrescue

MoreU.S.troopsareontheirwaytoTurkey.About300AirForcepersonnelare
headedtoDiyarbakirAirBaseisinsouthernTurkey,whichsitsabout100milesfromthe
borderwithSyria.Amongthoseairmenarepararescueteams,combatrescueofficers
andspecialistswhospecializeinretrievingdownedpilotsorisolatedtroops.Inother
words,thePentagonispreparingfordownedpilots.

TheteamsaredeployingwiththeirHH-60GPaveHawkhelicoptersandHC-130stocarry
outrescueoperations,ifneeded,AirForceTimesJeffSchogolreports.Diyarbakirsits
over300milestotheeastofIncirlikAirBase,whereU.S.F-16shavebeenflying
missionsagainsttheIslamicStatesinceAugust.

Gulf

TheU.S.NavycapturedahostofRussianandIranianweaponsaboardasmall,
unregistereddhowitstoppedoffthecoastofYemenlastweek,accordingto
theAssociatedPress.TheUSSForrestSherman,aguidedmissiledestroyer,stopped
theshipandfoundanti-tankweaponsaboardwhichtheIraniancrewclaimedwerebound
forSomalia.U.S.officialssaidit'spossiblethattheweaponswereultimatelyboundfor
theconflictinYemen,withSomaliaasastoppingoffpoint.TheSaudi-ledcoalitionatwar
inYemenbelievesthatIranhasbeensecretlysupplyingtheHouthimovement,whichit's
tryingtodisplacefrompowerinthecountry.

AirForce

WhenwillweknowwhowillbuildtheAirForce'snextgenerationbomber?Sometimein
thenextcoupleofmonths,accordingtotheservice.Lt.Gen.ArnoldBunchtold
CongressionalofficialsthattheAirForceplanstotakeitstimeselectingfromthebids
offeredbyRaytheonandthejointtheteamofLockheedandBoeing.Sourcesinthe
flyingbranchtellReutersthatthecompanieswillsubmittheirfinalproposalstothe
DefenseDepartmentthisweek.

MoreF-35trouble

Well,thisishardlyunexpected.Addingyetanothergrimdatapointtotheyearsof
headachesthatthewildlyexpensive,andconstantlytroubled,F-35programhascaused
theU.S.AirForce,DefenseNewsLaraSeligmanandAaronMehtareportthat
skinnypilotsneednotapply.Pilotsweighinglessthan136lbs.havebeenfoundtobeat
increasedriskofinjuryduringlow-speedejections,andasaresult,anyfliernotmeeting
thatweighthasbeengroundeduntiltheproblemcanbefixed.

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Subject:Editors'Picks:Meettheanti-ISISfightersPutinjustbombedinSyriaandforColombias
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 Wednesday,September30

WelcometoEditors'Picks,FP'sround-upoftheday'sbestarticles.
Today,welookathowdisplacedColombiansseethepeacedeal,whetherGodis
havingaclimatemoment,andtheCongolesepresidentsbidtobuytime.

1 FRIENDSLIKETHESE:MoscowsaysitsenemyisISIS,buttheinitial

phaseofitsairwarinSyriahitAmerican-backedrebels,FPsDavid
Kennerreports:Readmore

 From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 10/01/201509:49:34AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:FPIOvernightBrief:October1,2015[RelevanttoUAandRegion].......Fwd:FPSituationReport[RelevanttoUAand
Subject:
Region].....FORBES/PAULRG:as-russia-launches-air-strikes-in-syria-obama-must-make-sure-we-dont-forget-ukraine........FPED/Meet...

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Subject:Fwd:FPIOvernightBrief:October1,2015[RelevanttoUAandRegion].......Fwd:FPSituationReport[RelevanttoUAand
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From:paulroderickgregory<pgregory@stanford.edu>
Date:Thu,Oct1,2015at9:07AM
Subject:Lobby
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

Walter:

IbelievePutin'sactionsinSyriacouldforceObamatocarryouttheUkraineFreedomAct,asIargueinthisForbespiece.
Canyougetthispointtothosewhomighthavesomelobbyingpower?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2015/09/30/asrussialaunchesairstrikesinsyriaobamamust
makesurewedontforgetukraine/

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:ForeignPolicyInitiative<info@foreignpolicyi.org>
Date:Thu,Oct1,2015at7:33AM
Subject:FPIOvernightBrief:October1,2015
To:Walter<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

FollowandSupportFPI

FPIOvernightBrief
October1,2015
 TableofContents
MiddleEast/NorthAfrica,Asia,Security,Russia/Europe,Americas,Africa,ObamaAdministration,DemocracyandHuman
Rights,Events

Announcements TheMust-Reads
The2015FPIForumwillbeheldattheNewseumin RussiansstriketargetsinSyria,butnotinISISareas
Washington,DCtoday.
AdministrationscramblesasRussiaseizesinitiativeinSyria
ApplicationsforFPI's2015NewYorkLeadersProgramare
Rogin:RussiarisksbeingprosecutedforSyriaswarcrimes
duetomorrow.
Boot,Pregent:HowObamacouldsalvagehisISIS
BesuretoencourageyourcolleaguestosignupfortheFPI
strategy
OvernightBrief.
FPIsAdesnik,Kahn:PreventingIranfromexploitingthe
Ifyousupportourmissionandwork,pleaseconsidermaking nucleardeal
atax-deductibledonationtoFPItoday.
Abbas:PalestiniansnolongerboundbyOslo,Abrams
ReadthenewbriefingbooksfromFPIandtheJohnHay responds
Initiative.
Kunduzwonafteryears-longstrategy,USstrugglestohelp
ISWispublishingregularupdatesonthesituationinIraqand Afghans
Syria,andAEI'sCriticalThreatsProjectisdoingsoforthe
MackenzieEaglen:ThetopchangesinthenewNDAA
Yemenconflict.
FPIsEllenBork:IgnoringhumanrightsinAzerbaijan

MiddleEast/NorthAfrica
Syria

RussianaircraftcarriedoutabombingattackagainstSyrianoppositionfightersonWednesday,includingatleastonegrouptrainedbytheC.I.A.,
elicitingangryprotestsfromAmericanofficialsandplungingthecomplexsectarianwarthereintodangerousnewterritory.NewYorkTimes

BlindsidedbytheunexpectedswiftnessofRussiasairattacksinSyria,theObamaadministrationscrambledWednesdaytoretakethediplomatic
andmilitaryinitiatives,sayingthatitwouldnotbebulliedintosupportingPresidentBasharal-Assadandthatitwasabouttosignificantlyexpand
itsownSyrianairoperations.WashingtonPost

TheU.S.andRussiahaveagreedonspecificstepsthatcouldnudgeforwardaSyrianpoliticalprocess,U.S.SecretaryofStateJohnKerrysaid
Wednesday.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

RussianofficialsvehementlydefendedthecountrysairstrikecampaigninSyriaThursday,denyingreportsofciviliandeathsandWestern
accusationsthatthecountrywastargetingU.S.-backedrebelsinsteadoftheIslamicState.WashingtonPost

WhenRussiadeclareditwouldstarthittingtheIslamicStateinSyria,opponentsofPresidentBasharal-Assadwereimmediatelyconcernedthatit
wouldtargetthemaswellinsurgentswhorebelledlongbeforetheIslamicState,alsocalledISISorISIL,existedinitscurrentform.Buteven
theyweretakenabackonWednesdaywhenRussiasveryfirstairstrikesinSyriaappearedtotargetareaswheretheIslamicStatehasnoknown
presence,includingsomethathavesymbolicresonanceasstrongholdsoftheearly,locallybasedoppositionthatsprangupamongarmy
defectors.NewYorkTimes

TherushofmigrantsintoEurope,combinedwiththeContinentsfearthatIslamicStatefightersmaycrossporousborderstocarryoutattacks,
hasstirrednewurgencyamongWesternleaderstoaddressthewarinSyriaandpushharderforanendtoit.NewYorkTimes

FrancehasopenedtheworldsfirstcriminalinquiryintotortureunderPresidentBasharal-AssadofSyria,officialsandrightsadvocatessaid
Wednesday,anindirectrebuketoRussiaanditseffortstorehabilitateMr.Assadaspartofaninternationalanti-Islamistcoalition.NewYork
Times

TheU.S.forcesbombingIslamicStatetargetsinSyriawillnotyieldtoRussianjets,DefenseSecretaryAshCartersaidWednesday.Healso
confirmedthatRussiasfirststrikesonWednesdaywerenotinareaswheretheIslamicStateoperatesandthatraisestheriskofcollision
betweenRussianandcoalitionforces.DefenseOne

FouryearsintoSyria'scivilwarandmorethanayearintoaU.S.-ledbombingcampaignagainsttheIslamicStateterroristgroup,theU.S.military
nowfacesanew,potentiallyfarmoredangerousprospect:backingtheoppositesideoftheRussianAirForce.-Politico

[W]ithRussianowsharingintelligencewiththeIraqis,Syrians,andIraniansfromanewlyformedoperationscenterinBaghdad,Washingtonand
MoscowmustresolvelargerdividesoverthefutureofSyrianPresidentBasharal-AssadandtheflailingfightagainsttheIslamicStateinIraqand
Syria.ForeignPolicy

MittRomney,2012GOPpresidentialcandidateandformerMassachusettsgoverner,slammedPresidentObamaonhishandlingofthecrisisin
Syria.TheHill

Sen.JohnMcCain(R-Ariz.)slammedtheObamaadministrationonWednesday,suggestingtheyaretoblameforRussia'sincreasedmilitary
presenceinSyria.TheHillsFloorAction

Sen.BobCorker(R-Tenn.)isinvitingSecretaryofStateJohnKerrytotestifybeforetheForeignRelationsCommitteeovertheadministration's
policyinSyria,asRussiabeginsacampaignofairstrikesinthecountry.TheHillsFloorAction

JoshRoginreports:NowthattheRussiangovernmentisopenlyaidingtheSyrianarmy,RussianofficialsallthewayuptoPresidentVladimirPutin
couldbeprosecutedforabettingwarcrimes,accordingtoformerU.S.officialsandinternationallawexperts.BloombergView

Iran

GrowingspeculationthatJohnKerrywillreceiveaNobelPeacePrizeforfinalizingtheIraniannucleardealisgeneratingrenewedcriticismofhis
closerelationshipwiththeIranianforeignminister,JavadZarif,akeypublicfaceforthetheocraticregimewhoisrumoredtobeaprobableco-
recipientwithKerry.WashingtonFreeBeacon

AgroupofRepublicansenatorsarepushingtoblockreliefofIran'ssanctionsuntilitpaysbillionsinterrorismfinesamovethatcould
potentiallyunderminePresidentObama'sIrannucleardeal.TheHillsFloorAction

Sen.TedCruzwantstheStateDepartmenttoclassifyaneliteIranianmilitaryforceasaterroristorganization.TheHillsFloorAction

KennethStethem,aformerNavySEALandthebrotherofanAmericanvictimofIranianterrorism,calledonPresidentObamatosupportabillthat
wouldcompelIrantopaythe$43.5billionitowestovictimsofterrorismbeforereceivingsanctionsrelief.WashingtonFreeBeacon

FPIPolicyDirectorDavidAdesnikandSeniorPolicyAnalystTzviKahnwrite:ThedebateoverthenucleardealhardlyendedwhenPresident
ObamaheldtogetherenoughSenateDemocratstofilibusteraresolutionofdisapproval.Rather,thedebatewillnowfocusonpreventingIranfrom
extractingfurtherconcessionsandexploitingthedealsmanyloopholes.Boththeopponentsofthedealanditsmanyreluctantsupporterscan
nowcontinuetogethertheunfinishedworkofpreventingIranfromdevelopinganuclearweapon.ForeignPolicyInitiative

EmanueleOttolenghiwrites:AmoreaggressiveapproachtocounteringtheIRGCiscrucialtocompensateforthenuclearagreement's
shortcomings.SigningthenucleardealisbynomeanstheendofcounteringtheGuard'sambitionsinmanyways,itisjustthebeginning.
TheHill

Iraq

KurdishforcessaidtheydroveIslamicStatemilitantsoutofvillagesneartheoilcityofKirkukinnorthernIraqonWednesday,inanoffensive
backedbyairstrikesfromtheU.S.-ledcoalition.-Reuters

EliLakereports:WhentheIslamicStatein2014beganitsrampagethroughoutIraq,manyofthedisplacedpeoplefoundasafehaveninthe
Kurdistanprovincesinthenorth.Thatsafehavenisnowindanger.BloombergView

Rep.AlceeHastings(D-FL)writes:Whilethegeo-politicalcomplexitiesthatexistintheregionareunquestionablydaunting,onethingisclear:
thousandsofwomencurrentlyexperiencingthishorrifictreatment,andthefewwhohavebeenluckyenoughtoescape,needthesupportofthe
internationalcommunity.RollCall

Turkey

TheAirForceisdeployingabout300airmentoDiyarbakirAirBaseinTurkeytofind,protectandrescueanyU.S.orcoalitionpilotswhohaveto
ejectoverIraqorSyria.MilitaryTimes

AprominentTurkishjournalistwashospitalizedafteranattackbyunknownassailantsoutsidehishome,hisnewspapersaidonThursday,inthe
latestsignofdeterioratingconditionsforthemediaunderPresidentTayyipErdogan.-Reuters

Editorial:ConsideringthepotentialtodisruptthewaragainsttheIslamicState,theObamaadministrationhasreactedmildlytoMr.Erdogans
campaign.AStateDepartmentspokesmanhasbeencriticaloftheattacksonthemedia,sayingthequalityofTurkeysdemocracymatterstous.
HealsosaidtheadministrationistalkingtotheTurkishgovernmentaboutU.S.supportfortheKurdishforcesinSyria.Giventheslimchancesthat
Mr.Erdoganwillrespondreasonably,WashingtoncanonlyhopethatTurkishvotersrebuffhimagain.WashingtonPost

ReturntoTop
Asia
Afghanistan

KunduzresidentsandprovincialofficialssaidthecityremainedinTalibanhandsonThursday,despiteclaimsfromtheAfghangovernmentthatit
hadretakenthecity.NewYorkTimes

Inapotentialmajorshiftinpolicy,U.S.militarycommanderswanttokeepatleastafewthousandAmericantroopsinAfghanistanbeyond2016,
citingafragilesecuritysituationhighlightedbytheTaliban'scaptureofthenortherncityofKunduzthisweekaswellasrecentmilitantinroadsin
thesouth.AssociatedPress

U.S.andAfghanofficialspitchedinvestorsWednesdayondoingbusinessonmilitaryairfieldsthatNATOtroopswillwithdrawfromin
Afghanistan,evenastheTalibaninsurgencyragesoninthecountry.AssociatedPress

AhmedRashidwrites:TheTalibanscaptureofthenorthernAfghancityofKunduzisacatastrophicblowtothebeleagueredgovernmentof
PresidentAshrafGhani,whohasbeeninofficeforayear.Butithasmuchwiderimplicationsfortheregion.FinancialTimes

South/CentralAsia

Pro-RussianpartieslooksettoretaintheirdominancewhenKyrgyzstanelectsanewparliamentonSunday,buttheapparentstabilitymasks
ethnictensionsandrisingIslamistradicalismintheformerSovietrepublic.-Reuters

NateSchennkanwrites:Thepost-2010constitutionwassupposedtocreateaparliamentaryrepublic,butthereareworryingsignsthatcurrent
PresidentAlmazbekAtambaevistheonecallingtheshots.Kyrgyzstanmaynotbeheadedtoadictatorship,butneitherisitbecomingmore
democratic.Whathappened?ForeignPolicysDemocracyLab

China

Persistentheadwindsareholdingbacktheworldssecond-largesteconomydespitesomenascentsignsofimprovementinSeptemberforChinas
strugglingmanufacturingsector.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

ChinahasquietlybegunconstructiononitsfirstdomesticaircraftcarrierinthesamenorthernChineseshipyardthatrefurbishedthePeoples
LiberationArmyNavyscurrentSoviet-eracarrier,USNINewshaslearned.USNINews

AnewexplosionrockedacountytowninsouthwesternGuangxiprovinceonThursdaymorning,statemediareported,justhoursafterpolice
arresteda33year-oldmanforpossibleinvolvementinaseriesofmailbombsthatkilledatleastsevenpeopleonWednesday.FinancialTimes

Atleast50peoplediedinanattacklastmonthatacoalmineinChina'sfar-westernXinjiang,RadioFreeAsiareportedonThursday,asavisiting
seniorleaderwarnedthatthesecuritysituationintheviolence-proneregionwas"veryserious".-Reuters

EastAsia

PrimeMinisterShinzoAbesnewcabinetcouldincludeafamiliarnameKoizumiasMr.Abeseekstoshoreuppublicsupportafteralongbattle
oversecuritybillsthissummerdentedhispopularity.WSJsJapanRealTime

TaiwanPresidentMaYing-jeousaidonThursdaytheislandwasnotreadytodiscussunificationwithChina,sendingafirmmessagetoan
increasinglyassertiveBeijingeagertoabsorbwhatitconsidersarenegadeprovince.-Reuters

RichardFontainewrites:NowPyongyanghasannouncedanimminentsatellitelaunchexpectedtodemonstrateitsballistic-missilecapabilities.
Armedwithnuclearandchemicalweapons,KimJongUnposesanenduringthreattotheSouth.ThishasmotivatedSouthKoreaandChina
recentlytodevelopwarmerties,somethingthathasntgoneunnoticedacrosstheregion.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

SoutheastAsia

AwarofwordsisbeingfoughtinMyanmar,largelyoversocialmedia,betweennationalistBuddhistmonksandoppositionleaderAungSanSuu
Kyi'sparty,highlightingdivisionsintherun-uptoageneralelectiononNov.8.-Reuters

TheruralheartlandofThailand'sdeposedleaderYingluckShinawatraandherexiledbillionairebrotherThaksinishurtingasaresultofthemilitary
government'seconomicpolicies,stirringdiscontentandthethreatofprotests.-Reuters

Editorial:EvenifMr.Najibstepsdown,tensionsarelikelytoincreaseforsometime.AfterthePrimeMinistersackedhisdeputyandrival,
MuhyiddinYassin,inJulyandpurgedotherreformersfromUMNO,Malaychauvinistshavemovedintopositionsofpower.Malaysiasminorities
havegoodreasontofeartheywillagainbescapegoatsinthecountryspowerstruggles.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

Trans-PacificPartnership

TradeministersfortheUnitedStatesand11otherPacificnationsgatheredinAtlantaonWednesdaytotrytoreachagreementonthelargest
regionalfree-tradepactever.Butknottydifferencespersist,andantitradeblastsfromAmericanpresidentialcandidateshavenoteasedprospects
foranydeal.NewYorkTimes

ReturntoTop

Security
DefenseBudget

InadisputewithRepublicansoverhowdefensewouldbefunded,PresidentObamaplanstovetothe2016defensepolicybilldueforavoteinthe
HouseonThursday,aWhiteHousespokesmantoldreportersWednesday.DefenseNews

Theconferenceversionofthedefensepolicybillfor2016putstheNavyonnoticeinmultiplehigh-priorityprograms.Inthreeareascarriers,the
UCLASSdrone,andLCSSen.JohnMcCainstoughpositionsprevailedovertheHouse,albeitwithsomecompromisesaroundtheedges.Ina
fourthTiconderoga-classcruisersitwasaHouseleader,Rep.RandyForbes,whopushedharshermeasuresandgotapartialvictory.
BreakingDefense

TheNavywouldfaceshipdeliverydelays,slowdowninitsadvanceprocurementeffortsandmaybeblockedfromstartinganaircraftcarrier
refuelingifashort-termcontinuingresolution,settostarttomorrow,isextendedpastDecember.USNINews

Theannualdefensebillauthorizes$411milliontoupguntheArmysStrykervehicles.ThecompromisegoeswiththeSenateshigherfunding
levels:$314millionformodificationworkand$97millionforR&D.Thatsaheadyincreasefromthe$0.00thepresidentsbudgetincludedforthe
initiative,whichemergedmid-yearasaresponsetoRussianaggressioninEurope.BreakingDefense

U.S.lawmakersagainrejectedtheAirForcesproposaltoretiretheA-10ThunderboltIIattackaircraft,callingthedecisionmisguided.DOD
Buzz

MackenzieEaglenwrites:HighlightsofthisyearsdefensepolicybillcraftedbySenatorsJohnMcCain(R-AZ)andJackReed(D-RI)and
RepresentativesMacThornberry(R-TX)andAdamSmith(D-WA)includesignificantbipartisanchangesinacquisitionreform,militaryretirement,
USpolicyintheSouthChinaSea,andastrategyfortheeventualclosureofGuantanamoBay.BreakingDefense

Defense

Inwhatappearstobethefirstshotinapotentiallygroundbreakingchangetodefensemergersandacquisitions,FrankKendall,thePentagons
topacquisitionofficial,saidtheDepartmentofDefenseplanstoaskCongresstocreaterulesthatcouldhindermergersbetweenprimecontractors.
DefenseNews

TheUSAirForceisstillworkingthroughthedetailsofacontractawardforthenext-generationbomber,andexpectsanannouncementonthefinal
downselectinthenextfewmonths.DefenseNews

LockheedMartinCorp.hasmorethan$700millionatstakeinconvincingtheU.S.Navyitcanremedyflawsinnewunderwaterdronesintendedto
huntdownminesfromasafedistance.-Bloomberg

DefenseofficialsmustsubmitaproposaltoCongressforcompletelyweaningthemilitarycommissaryandexchangesystemsofftaxpayerfunding,
accordingtoapotentiallyexplosiveprovisionburiedinthenewconferenceagreementonthe2016defenseauthorizationbill.MilitaryTimes

U.S.lawmakersonTuesdayagreedtoincreasepharmacyco-paysthatlargelyaffectmilitaryretireesaspartofasweepingdefensebill.
Military.com

WomeninCombat

DefenseSecretaryAshtonB.CartersaidWednesdaythathewillnotreviewrecommendationsfromthemilitaryservicesonhowwomenshouldbe
integratedintothemilitaryforsomemonths,addingthattheywillfirstgotothePentagonsnewtopmilitaryofficer,Gen.JosephF.Dunford.
WashingtonPostsCheckpoint

AirForceSecretaryDeborahLeeJameshassubmittedtoDefenseSecretaryAshCarterherrecommendationsonopeninguptheAirForce'slast
male-onlycombatjobstowomen.MilitaryTimes

MissileDefense

TheNationalDefenseAuthorizationActthathasemergedfromconferencenegotiationswouldadd$30millionfortheplanninganddesignofan
EastCoastmissiledefensesiteandspeedupitspossibledeployment,avictoryforsomecongressionalRepublicanswhohavelongfoughtfor
tractiontomoveforwardwiththepossibleproject.DefenseNews

Cybersecurity

TheUnitedStatesadversariesseecyberwarfareasapotentialAmericanvulnerabilityinamilitaryengagement,thePentagonsnumbertwo
civiliantoldtheHouseArmedServicesCommitteeWednesday.USNINews

Themajorityoffederalagencieshavenotaddressedsignificantweaknessesincybersecurity,assecurityincidentsincreasedbymorethan1,000
percentinlessthanadecade,accordingtotheGovernmentAccountabilityOffice(GAO).WashingtonFreeBeacon

TheFederalBureauofInvestigationislookingtoenlistteenagersinitsfightagainstcybercrimebeforetheyareluredintohigh-payingprivate
sectorjobsorfailbackgroundchecksbysmokingmarijuanaFinancialTimes

BillGertzreports:DeputyDefenseSecretaryRobertWorkthisweekoutlinedthePentagon'splanfordeterrenceagainstcyberattacksfromnation
statessuchasChina,RussiaandNorthKorea.IntestimonyTuesdaybeforetheSenateArmedServicesCommittee,Mr.Workalsoconfirmedthat
threemajorcyberattacksinrecentmonthswerelinkedtoChina,RussiaandNorthKorea.WashingtonTimes'InsidetheRing

Russia/Europe
Ukraine

AdrianKaratnyckywrites:Ukraine'snewlyvigorousdefensecapabilitycannotdeteranall-outRussianattack.Butamajoroffensiveisunlikely
now,asthecostsonbothsideswouldbemassive.Theconflictisunlikelytofade,either.ThestalemateinUkraine'seastunderscoresthe
importanceofbolsteringthecountry'sdeterrentcapabilities.AndtherearesignsthattheUnitedStatesandanincreasingnumberofUkraine's
westernneighborsarecomingtoacceptthislogic.AtlanticCouncil

Russia

MashaGessenwrites:Mr.PutinisdeterminedtohaveRussiaagainacknowledgedasasuperpower,atleastequaltoAmericaindecidingthefate
ofacountrylikeSyria.InthenameoffightingISIS,RussiawantstheWesttoletitcontinuecarvingupUkraineandflexitsmusclesovermuchof
Eurasia.InMr.Putinsspeech,andinhismind,thiswouldbenotonlylogicalbutplainlyright.NewYorkTimes

StevenLeeMyerswrites:RussiasabstentionfromtheUnitedNationsSecurityCouncilvoteauthorizingtheuseofmilitaryforcetostopthe
slaughterinLibyain2011forcedPutinshandandsetthestageforhisreturntothepresidencythenextyearandafarmoreconfrontational
posturetotheUnitedStatesandEurope,onethatresonatesintheRussianbombsexplodinginSyriatoday.-Politico

Europe

LatviaspresidentwarnedtheWestagainsttrustingMoscowasapartnerasRussiaexpandsitsroleinSyria,pointingtoRussianPresident
VladimirPutinssuccessingainingcontroloverpartsofUkrainewhiletryingtointimidateanddivideEurope.WallStreetJournal(subscription
required)

ThedesireofJeremyCorbyn,thenewleaderoftheLabourParty,toscrapBritainsnucleararsenaliswellknown,butwhenhesaidonWednesday
thathewouldorderthemilitarynottousenuclearweaponsifhewereprimeminister,itcreatedafirestormofcriticism.NewYorkTimes

TheheadofU.S.ArmyEuropeiseyeinganarrowsliveroflandconnectingPolandwithLithuania,concernedabouttheRussiantroopsand
equipmenthehasbeenwatchingpileuponeitherside.ForeignPolicysTheCable

ABritishgovernmentsourcedeniedonThursdayareportthatDavidCameronwouldstepdownasprimeministerin2019,ayearbeforehistenure
ends,andsaidhewouldservehisfullsecondterm.-Reuters

FPISeniorFellowEllenBorkwrites:IsmayilovaremainsoptimisticaboutAzerbaijansfuture.Ithinktherepressionmachineisabouttocollapse,
shetoldthecourtthatsentencedher.Perhaps,sheventures,thedeclineinoilpricesthathavebuoyedthefortunesofseveralauthoritarian
regimes,isafactor,but,shesays,thereareotherreasonsaswell.Oneofthesereasonsisus!Itcertainlywontbethedisapprovaloftheworlds
democracies.WorldAffairsJournalsDemocracyRoad

DaliborRohacwrites:Tocountertheriseofanti-Europeanpopulismonboththefarrightandthefarleft,theEUneedsprofoundreforms.Butits
justasimportantthatitsexcessesdonotblindtheEUsconservativeandfree-marketcriticstothebigpicture.AbigpictureofEuropethatis,by
historicalstandards,uniquelyprosperousandpeaceful.Oneonlyhopesitcanstaythatway.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

ReturntoTop

ObamaAdministration
PeterFeaverwrites:Wedonotarguethatbetterprocesswouldhaveavoidedallofthemanifoldproblemsthisadministrationwillbequeathtothe
next.Butwedoarguethatthenextpresidentwillneedtohaveabetterprocessinordertogetthecountryoutoftheforeignpolicyditchwehave
landedin.ForeignPolicysShadowGovernment

ReturntoTop
DemocracyandHumanRights
TylerRoylancewrites:Today,therulersofRussia,China,andotherauthoritarianstateswouldliketocreateasimilararrangement,unitingall
incumbentgovernmentsagainstcommonthreatstotheirgriponpower.Andliketheirpredecessors,thesedictatorsseelittledistinctionamong
theirdiverseenemies.Independentjournalists,liberaloppositionparties,nonviolentminorityadvocates,andmoderateIslamistsarelumped
togetherwithmilitantjihadistsandbloodthirstyradicals.Allareseenasextremists.FreedomHouse

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robustsupportfordemocraticallies,humanrights,astrongAmericanmilitaryequippedtomeetthechallengesofthe21stcentury,and
strengtheningAmericasglobaleconomiccompetitiveness.Tosubmitcommentsorsuggestions,emailovernight@foreignpolicyi.org.

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From:ForeignPolicy<fp@foreignpolicy.com>
Date:Thu,Oct1,2015at7:55AM
Subject:SituationReport,presentedbyFPGuidetoApplyingtoGradSchool-Russiareachesoutwhileeconomystruggles
questionsoverwhoMoscowisbombingmoreF35issuesKunduzfightragesonPentagonfundingbillintroubleAirForce
sendssearchandrescueteamstoTurkey
To:waz2102@columbia.edu

S i t u a t i o n R e p o r t : R u s s i a r e a c h e s o u t w h i l e e c o n o m y s t r u g g l e s q u e s t i o n s o v e r w h o M o s c o w i s b o m b i n g m o r e F 3 5 i s s u e s K u n d u z f i g h t r a g e s o n P e n t a g o n f u n d i n g b i l l i n t r o u b l e A i r F o r c e s e n d s s e a r c h a n d r e s c u e t e a m s t o T u r k e y a n d l o t s m o r e

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FollowUs:

ByPaulMcLearywithAdamRawnsley

Samewar,butnew.RussianbombsarefallinginSyria,andU.S.officialsarentsure
whattodoaboutit.AttheUnitedNationsonWednesday,SecretaryofStateJohnKerry
stoodnexttoRussianForeignMinisterSergeiLavrovjustasRussiansortieswere
wrappingup,arrivingfortheirmeetingjustsecondsafterLavrovtoldreportersdont
listentothePentagonaboutRussianstrikes.

Thestrikesshouldreallycomeasnosurprise.U.S.officialshavebeensayingfordays
theyexpectthebombingtobeginatanytime,andMoscowcanhardlyaffordtoabandon
 itsMediterraneanclientstate.FPsColumLynchandPaulMcLearynotedWednesday
thatRussiasonlyoverseasmilitarybaseislocatedatTartusinSyria,whichhouses
1,700RussiantroopsandgivesRussianshipsahomebaseintheMediterranean,
allowingMoscowamuchgreaterforwardpresencethanitwouldhaveotherwise.

Strategery.NotonlyisSyriaimportantforRussiaasafootholdintheregion,butby
openingupanintelsharingshopinBaghdadstaffedbyRussian,Iranian,Syrianand
Iraqimilitarypersonnel,RussianPresidentVladimirPutinhasmadeMoscowimpossible
toignoreinthefractiousdebateoverwhattodonextinthefightagainsttheIslamic
State.

Paytoplay.ButRussiasrecentmilitaryforaysintoCrimea,Ukraine,andSyriadont
comecheap.Moscowhas25,000hungrytroopsstationedinCrimea,issupportingrebels
(anditsowntroops)inUkraine,andnowhasstretchedsupplylinesintoSyriatosupport
troopsanddozensofhigh-techfighterplanes.Giventhefallofoilpricesandwestern
sanctions,however,Moscowseconomyhasbeenhurting.AndFPsDavid
FrancisarrivesjustintimetobreakdownPutinseconomicsituation,completewith
chartsforthoseofuswhoare...visuallearners.

Goodrebels,badrebels.So,whoaretheRussiansbombing?FPsDavid
KennerreportsthatthoseRussianbombsarenthittingwhoMoscowsaidtheydhit,
namelytheIslamicState.Rather,Russianplaneslooktobeputtingordnanceonarebel
groupthatlikelywasvettedbytheCIA,usesU.S.-madeweapons,andhaspublicly
backedtheinternationalcoalitionfightingtheIslamicState.Thegroupalsoispartofa
looseallianceofmilitiasfocusedonbattlingtheregimeofSyrianPresidentBasharal-
Assad,whichmeansthattheearlyphaseofMoscowsmilitaryinterventionwill
strengthenAssadatleastasmuchasitwillweakentheIslamicState.

Kunduzcalling.WiththehelpofAfghan,U.S.,andNATOSpecialForces,theAfghan
armyisonthevergeofdoingsomethinginadaythatthattheIraqiarmyhasbeen
unabletodoforalmosttwoyears:pusharebelgroupoutofamajorcity.Daysafterthe
TalibanstormedthecityofKunduz,sendingAfghanforceswheelingoutoftown,the
armyandspecialforcesreturnedtokickinthedoor,andhavenowretakenpartsofthe
city.

Thesituationisprettyfluidandthereisstillplentyoffightinglocalsreport,andthetwo
sidesaregoinghousetohouseinsomepartsoftown.TheTalibancaptureofthecity
comesastheresultofasophisticatedgamethegrouphasbeenplayinginthenorth
forthepasttwoyears,patientlyinchingclosertothecitywhilewinningoverlocalsfedup
withgovernmentcorruption.

Hey,werestillhere!WeshouldnotethattodayisOct.1--thefirstdayoftheU.S.
federalgovernmentsfiscalyear--andWashingtonhassomehowavoidedanother
shutdown.Butthestruggleisreal.PresidentBarackObamahaspromisedtovetothe
defensespendingbillCongressisworkingonoveradisputeconcerninghowtofundthe
DepartmentofDefense.AtissueiswhetherCongressshouldcrashthroughspending
capsimposedonthedefensebillbypaddingasupplementalwartimeaccountwithan
extra$38billion.TheHousewillvoteonthebillThursday.

Anothergoodmorningtoyou.VladimirPutinsRussiaiseatingupallthe
headlines,butitsabigworldoutthere.Asalways,yourvoicesarewelcome.
Pleasepassalonganytips,notes,orotherwiseinterestingbitsofinformation
thatyoumayhaveatyourdisposal.Bestwayistosendthem
topaul.mcleary@foreignpolicy.comoronTwitter:@paulmclearyor@arawnsley.

Ifyouhaventyetheard,FPisnowproducingpodcasts!Checkoutourtwoprograms,
TheEditorsRoundtable(TheE.R.)andGlobalThinkersformoreforeignpolicyinsight,
commentaryandanalysis.YoucansubscribeandlistentothemtodayoniTunesor
Stitcher:http://atfp.co/1K7nhrI

TopTweet

RT@LizSlyRussia'smapofwhereISISisiscompletelydifferenttothe@ISW's.
Kurdsshouldbecareful.SoshouldAleppo.

Speakingofmaps,theInstitutefortheStudyofWarhasjustcomeoutwithafreshset,
 showingwhereRussianwarplaneshavestruckinSyriasfarwest,hundredsofkilometers
awayfromanyknownIslamicStateheldterritory.

Syria

WhatdoesdeconflictionbetweenforcesinSyrialookliketoRussia?Accordingto
Britain'sDailyTelegraph,itinvolvesaRussiangeneralstrollingintotheU.S.embassyin
Baghdadandsayingcurtly"welaunchSyriaairstrikesinonehour.Stayoutoftheway."

Drones

TheU.S.hasfoundnewmarketsforitsScanEagledrones.Instugotthegreenlightto
sellthesmallishdronesalongwithlauncherstoCameroon,Kenya,andPakistanfora
grandtotalof$35millionworthofequipment,accordingtoFlightGlobal.

Searchandrescue

MoreU.S.troopsareontheirwaytoTurkey.About300AirForcepersonnelare
headedtoDiyarbakirAirBaseisinsouthernTurkey,whichsitsabout100milesfromthe
borderwithSyria.Amongthoseairmenarepararescueteams,combatrescueofficers
andspecialistswhospecializeinretrievingdownedpilotsorisolatedtroops.Inother
words,thePentagonispreparingfordownedpilots.

TheteamsaredeployingwiththeirHH-60GPaveHawkhelicoptersandHC-130stocarry
outrescueoperations,ifneeded,AirForceTimesJeffSchogolreports.Diyarbakirsits
over300milestotheeastofIncirlikAirBase,whereU.S.F-16shavebeenflying
missionsagainsttheIslamicStatesinceAugust.

Gulf

TheU.S.NavycapturedahostofRussianandIranianweaponsaboardasmall,
unregistereddhowitstoppedoffthecoastofYemenlastweek,accordingto
theAssociatedPress.TheUSSForrestSherman,aguidedmissiledestroyer,stopped
theshipandfoundanti-tankweaponsaboardwhichtheIraniancrewclaimedwerebound
forSomalia.U.S.officialssaidit'spossiblethattheweaponswereultimatelyboundfor
theconflictinYemen,withSomaliaasastoppingoffpoint.TheSaudi-ledcoalitionatwar
inYemenbelievesthatIranhasbeensecretlysupplyingtheHouthimovement,whichit's
tryingtodisplacefrompowerinthecountry.

AirForce

WhenwillweknowwhowillbuildtheAirForce'snextgenerationbomber?Sometimein
thenextcoupleofmonths,accordingtotheservice.Lt.Gen.ArnoldBunchtold
CongressionalofficialsthattheAirForceplanstotakeitstimeselectingfromthebids
offeredbyRaytheonandthejointtheteamofLockheedandBoeing.Sourcesinthe
flyingbranchtellReutersthatthecompanieswillsubmittheirfinalproposalstothe
DefenseDepartmentthisweek.

MoreF-35trouble

Well,thisishardlyunexpected.Addingyetanothergrimdatapointtotheyearsof
headachesthatthewildlyexpensive,andconstantlytroubled,F-35programhascaused
theU.S.AirForce,DefenseNewsLaraSeligmanandAaronMehtareportthat
skinnypilotsneednotapply.Pilotsweighinglessthan136lbs.havebeenfoundtobeat
increasedriskofinjuryduringlow-speedejections,andasaresult,anyfliernotmeeting
thatweighthasbeengroundeduntiltheproblemcanbefixed.

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 Wednesday,September30

WelcometoEditors'Picks,FP'sround-upoftheday'sbestarticles.
Today,welookathowdisplacedColombiansseethepeacedeal,whetherGodis
havingaclimatemoment,andtheCongolesepresidentsbidtobuytime.

1 FRIENDSLIKETHESE:MoscowsaysitsenemyisISIS,buttheinitial

phaseofitsairwarinSyriahitAmerican-backedrebels,FPsDavid
Kennerreports:Readmore

 From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 12/14/201509:24:42AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[MOREBADNEWSFROMTHE'VLADLANDS']AP/EdithLederer:RUSaysUN'sUAMeetingShouldNotDiscussHumanRights.....DE/TomBatchelor:"Putinsends20,000troopsto
Subject:
beefupRussianrebelsinbloodyUkrainecivilwar"......FPN/DanGreenfield:"NEWRU...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Sunday,December13,20153:12PM
Subject:Fwd:[MOREBADNEWSFROMTHE'VLADLANDS']AP/EdithLederer:RUSaysUN'sUAMeetingShouldNotDiscussHumanRights.....DE/TomBatchelor:"Putinsends
20,000troopstobeefupRussianrebelsinbloodyUkrainecivilwar"......FPN/DanGreenfield:"NEWRU...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Sun,Dec13,2015at6:03PM
Subject:[MOREBADNEWSFROMTHE'VLADLANDS']AP/EdithLederer:RUSaysUN'sUAMeetingShouldNotDiscussHumanRights.....DE/TomBatchelor:
"Putinsends20,000troopstobeefupRussianrebelsinbloodyUkrainecivilwar"......FPN/DanGreenfield:"NEWRUSSIANPROPAGANDA:UKRAINEIS
RACIST"[New??].......Dutch'Correspondent'LookstoPinStolenArtWorksonSBU'sValNal
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

ITEMI---RUCLAIMSHUMANRIGHTSISSUEINCRIMEAISADISTRACTION

Russia:UN'sUkraineMeetingShouldn'tDiscussHumanRights
BYEDITHM.LEDERER,ASSOCIATEDPRESS

UNITEDNATIONSDec11,2015,9:30PMET

9SHARES



E m a i l

AU.N.SecurityCouncilmeetingonUkrainewasdelayedfornearlyanhourandahalfFridaybecauseRussia
objectedtodiscussingthehumanrightssituationinthecountry'sseparatist-controlledeastandCrimea.

RussianAmbassadorVitalyChurkintoldcouncilmembersthathumanrightsdiscussionsshouldtakeplaceinthe
U.N.'sGeneva-basedHumanRightsCouncil.Hesaidraisinghumanrightswas"nothingmorethananattemptto
distractattentionfromthemostimportantgoaltoday,"implementingtheMinskagreementthatwasintendedtoend
thefighting.

ItwastheUnitedStatesthatinvitedaseniorU.N.humanrightsofficialtobriefthecouncilonUkraine.TheU.S.and
theWesthaverepeatedlyaccusedRussiaofsupportingtheseparatistswithtroopsandweapons,whichMoscow
hasdenied.

"OnedoeswonderwhatRussiaseekstohide,"saidU.S.AmbassadorSamanthaPower,thecurrentcouncil
president."Butweunderstanditsveryunfortunatedesiretopreventthecouncilfromhearinginconvenientfacts."

AssistantSecretary-GeneralforHumanRightsIvanSimonovictoldthecouncilthatmorethan9,000peoplehave
beenkilledsincetheconflictbeganinApril2014.Hecalledthataconservativeestimate.

Evenwith"relativemilitarycalm"intheeast,Simonovicsaid,thelackofruleoflawmakesthehumanrightssituation
oftheestimated2.7millionpeoplelivinginseparatist-controlledDonetskandLuhanskverydifficult.

"Reportsofhumanrightsabusesontheseterritoriespersist,includingthoserelatedtokillings,tortureandill-
treatment,illegaldetentionandforcedlabor,"hesaid."Localresidentscontinuetoremainwithoutanyeffective
protectionoftheirrights,andthereisalackofaccountability."

Simonovicalsosaidtherehasbeennoimprovementin2015inCrimea,whichRussiaannexedlastyear.

"Fundamentally,itisstillnotpossibletoexpressviewsthatdifferfromthosepromotedbythedefactoauthoritiesand
theRussianFederation,"hesaid.

JohnGing,thedirectorofoperationsintheU.N.humanitarianoffice,toldthecouncilthat800,000peoplelivein
"difficultanddangerousconditions"alongthelinebetweengovernmentandrebelareas.

Hestronglyprotestedtherecentexpulsionofaidorganizationsinseparatist-controlledareas,sayingithashad"a
devastatingimpactonanalreadyvulnerableandsufferingpeople."

Onealarmingexample,Gingsaid,wastheendofaDoctorsWithoutBordersprogramthatwastreating146multi-
drug-resistanttuberculosispatients.Hesaidthisdramaticallyincreasestherisksofitsspread.

ITEMII---IFVERIFIED,THEFOLLOWINGCOULDBEAGAME-CHANGER

Putinsends20,000troopstobeefupRussianrebelsin
bloodyUkrainecivilwar
VLADIMIRPutinhasdeployedanextra20,000soldierstothefrontlineofUkrainescivilwar,astemperaturesandhopesofalastingceasefirecontinuetoplummet.

ByTOMBATCHELOR

PUBLISHED:06:01,Sat,Dec12,2015|UPDATED:12:47,Sat,Dec12,2015

1K 85

GETTY

VladimirPutinandapro-Russianrebel

ThefreshdeploymenttakesthenumberofRussiantroopsintheregionto70,000-amoveUkrainespresidentdescribedasblatantaggressionaimedatcausingfurther
unrest.

Thefightingforceisstationedintheeastofthewar-scarredcountry,wherefiercebattlesbetweengovernmentbackedrebelsandRussian-backedseparatistshave
claimedthelivesofmorethan9,000inthe20-monthlongconflict.

PetroPoroshenkoattackedtheKremlinforusingbombingraidsinSyriaascovertodiverttheworldsattentionfromongoingaggressioninUkraine.

Meanwhile,USVicePresidentJoeBidenwarnedRussiathatWesternpressureonMoscowwouldonlyincreaseifRussian"aggression"againstneighbouringUkraine
continued.

DuringavisittoKiev,hesaid:"IfRussianaggressionpersists,thecostimposedonMoscowwillcontinuetorise."

RussiaannexedUkraine'sCrimeapeninsulainMarch2014andhasbeenaccusedofsendingpro-Kremlinfighterstocarveouttheirownregionintheex-Sovietstate.
 GETTY

RussiaannexedUkraine'sCrimeapeninsulainMarch2014

GETTY

PetroPoroshenkoattackedtheKremlinforusingbombingraidsinSyriaascover

GETTY

Ukrainiantroopshavebeenfightingrebelsfor20months

Asaresult,theKremlinhasbeenhitwitheconomicsanctionsfromWesternpowersangryattheincursion.

TheEUsaidearlierthatitplannedtoextendsanctionsnextweekbeforeEUmemberstates'leadersmeetinBrusselsonDecember17-18fortheirlastsummitof2015.

ButMoscowdeniesallinvolvementintheconflictandhasbannedimportsofWesternfoodinresponse.
 UkraineinPictures
Thu,August14,2014

AUkrainianwarplanewasblownoutoftheskyoverrebel-heldterritoryasfierceclashesbetweengovernmenttroopsandpro-Russianinsurgentsleftdozensofciviliansdead.At
least415,800peoplehavefledtheirhomesduetofightingbetweengovernmentforcesandpro-RussianseparatistsineasternUkraine,theUNrefugeeagencysaidonAugust20.
Thesepowerfulimagesshowhowlocalresidentsliveshavebeenaffected

PAUSESLIDESHOW

AP

14of47

Ukrainiangovernmentsoldiersfrombattalion"Donbass"restattheirpositionsinvillageMariinkanearDonetsk,easternUkraine

CLOSE

After20monthsofintensefightingbetweenUkrainianmilitaryandRussian-backedarmedgroups,9,115peoplehavebeenkilledand20,797injured,withciviliansamong
thedeadandwounded.

AreportbytheofficeoftheUNHighCommissionerforHumanRightssaidkillingsandtortureremainedcommonplace.

Investigatorsfoundasteadyflowof"ammunition,weaponryandfightersfromtheRussianFederation"werecombingtocreate"highlyflammable"situationinthewar-
ravagedcountry,buttheyaddedthatthereweretentativesignsofadeescalationintheconflict.

ThedeploymentcomesasUkrainessecurityservicesaidyesterdayithadarrestedanextremistcellinvolvingthreeRussiannationalsthathadstockpiledbombs
andplannedtocarryout"terroristattacks.

AspokeswomanforUkrainessecurityservice,SBU,said:TheinsurgentsplannedtostageterroristactsinKievandKharkivtodestabilisethesituationinthe
country.

Aroundthreemillionpeopleliveinrebelheldterritory,wheremovementisseverelyrestrictedandresidentsfacedailythreatsofviolence.

ITEMII---RUPROPAGANDAMOVINGINTOREALLYHIGHGEAR

NEWRUSSIANPROPAGANDA:UKRAINEIS
RACIST
"AndyouarelynchingNegroes"
December13,2015

DanielGreenfield

FinallyPutinhasfiguredouthowtosellhisinvasiontoObama.

UnlikeSovietRussia,Putin'sRussiacan'tcountonareliableleftistbaseforitspropaganda.Soitbombardsthemarginswithmessagestailoredto
them.Thistacticmainlytargetstheextremes,thefarleftandthefarright,conspiracytheorists,anarchists,peoplewhoarewillingtoembrace
anythingthatisanti-establishment.That'sthebasicprincipleofRussia'sRTwhichfusestabloidsensibilitieswithradicalpolitics.Thetactic
occasionallypicksuptraitorslikeEdwardSnowden,aRonPaulsupporterwhoturnedintotheAldrichAmesofthe21stcentury,sellingoutAmerican
secretstoMoscow.

Mostlyitworksonpeoplewhoaren'tpayingattentionbecausetherearetoomanycontradictorymessages.

Putin'sRussia(unlikeAmerica)isaplacewhereyoucanreallybefreeunderastrongregime.Itdoesn'tinvadeothercountries(likeAmerica)but
whenitdoes,it'sonlybecauseAmericabackeditintoacorner.It'sastrong"Christian"countrythatdoesn'toppressMuslims,butstronglyfights
terrorism,butnotinabadAmericanwaythatviolatescivilrights.

Anyonewhoknowswhat'sactuallygoingoninRussiaknowsallthisisuptherewiththeoldSovietpropagandaabouthowAmericanswerestarving
whileSovietagriculturewasbooming.

RussiaandUkrainehavebothstruggledtomakeAmericanscareabouttheirwar.(Shootingdownaplanehelpeddoit.)ForRussia,it'samoreuphill
battle.Tothemargins,itdispatchesmessagesaboutaneo-conservativeglobalistinternationalconspiracythatforcedittoinvadeandannexpartof
anothercountry.ThisstuffplayswelltotheGlennGreenwald-RonPaulcrowdthatbelievesitanyway.

Makinganyoneelsebelieveitisharder.SoherecomesanewtalkingpointtowarmthecocklesoftheSocialJusticeWarriorheart.Ukraineisracist.

ThiscomesfromMikhailKlikushin,whohasbeennotedforthrowingoutRussiangovernmenttalkingpointsbefore.
 Unlikehispeers,hehasaverypersonalreasontowantthishappen.ZhanBeleniukisatypicalUkrainianineverywaybuthis
skincolor.Hisfather,whoheneverknew,wasfromRwanda.HewasastudentoftheAviationInstituteintheSovietUkraineand,
beingapilot,waskilledinactionatthetimeofwarinthisAfricancountry.ZhansUkrainianmother,Svetlana,raisedhimalone.

ConsideringthekindsofpeopletheUSSRtendedtotrain,wecanhazardaguessaboutpoordearZhan'sfather.ButfinallyPutinhasbroughtback
thatclassicstapleofSovietpropaganda,"AndyouarelynchingNegroes"

"AndyouarelynchingNegroes"goessomethinglikethis.

TheAmericanasks:"HowmanydecadesdoesittakeanaverageSovietmantoearnenoughmoneytobuyaSovietcar?"Afterathoughtfulpause,
theSovietreplies:"AndyouarelynchingNegroes!"

SonowUkraineis"lynchingnegroes".

ThereareothersinthecountrywhoselooksdontfittheprofileofanAryanUkrainian,aprofilecelebratedbyUkrainian
nationalistsenjoyingtheirmomentinalotofplacesofpowerinthecountry,othermuchmorevulnerablethanZhan,whofor
differentreasonscametoUkrainefromAfricaandnowhavetoexperienceracismonthestreetsalmosteveryday.

IntheendofJuly,anumberofUkrainiannewspapersbrokethestoryof23-year-oldAsi,arefugeefromtheAfricanstateofSierra
LeonewhocametoUkrainejustsixmonthsago.AtthebusstationatthetownofUzhgorod,whichisinWestUkraine,theyoung
womanandher8-month-oldsonweretryingtoboardthebusbutwereviolentlythrownoffbythefuriouspassengerswhodidnt
wanttotravelinhercompanybecauseshewasnotlikethem.Theviolentattackwasfilmedbytheangrycrowdthatwas
shoutingTiehertothefencetogetherwiththekid!Thebusdrivercalledpolice,whouponarrivalhand-cuffedandtookaway
theunfortunatevictimofracialabusewhowashystericallyscreaminginEnglish,facingthehostilecrowdofUkrainian
Europeanswhocouldntunderstandherpleas.

YouinvadeUkraine.Butthey'relynchingnegroes.

InRussiathough,thiskindofthingdoesnothappenbecausenooneisracistinRussiaandeveryonelovesAfricanswhoshowupthere.
Sometimestheylovethemtodeath.

ThemenwhojumpedtheIvoryCoastmigrantatacrowdedMoscowtrainstationlastNovemberdidnotrobhim.Butthey
damagedhisjawtothedegreethatdoctorshadtoinstallametalplatetoholditinplace.IttookBaziefourmonthstoraisethe
$3,600toundergosurgery.

AfricansinRussia:IntheNov.2SectionA,anarticleabouthostilityagainstAfricanblacksinRussiasaidtherehadbeen177
reportedactsofviolenceagainstblacksinRussiasince2010,accordingtotheSOVACenterforInformationandAnalysis.There
wereactually177reportedviolentactsagainstblackssince2008,SOVAofficialssay,sixofwhichendedindeath.

Hisstoryisnotuncommon,Russiancivilandhumanrightsleaderssay.Africanmigrantsfacewidespreadhostilityandracism
thatusuallygounpunished.

ThissortofthinghappenedalotbackintheSovietdayswhentheregimewasimportingAfricanCommuniststotrainasterroristsattheiruniversities
onaregularbasis.

Itshouldn'tbesurprisingbecause,contrarytoliberaldogma,90percentoftheworldisracist.IncludingAfrica.AndI'mbeinggeneroushere.Russia
andUkrainearejustasracistandRussianpropagandistsreallyneedtostopmovingoldSovietpropagandahere.

There'sareason,"AndyouarelynchingNegroes"becameacliche,asignofhowbankruptanddishonestSovietpropagandistswere.

TheonlypeoplewhobelievethisgarbagealsobelieveeverythingMaxBlumenthalandGlennGreenwaldsay.
Tags:Russia,Ukraine

ITEMIII----SPEAKINGOFRUSSIANPROPAGANDA[DressedUpAsDutchJournalism]......LOOKATTHISDOOZIE:

Iunderstandnowthattheyreworthmuchless,butIwillhaveahardtimeconvincingthepeoplewhoassignedmetoacceptthat,Humeniuk
toldhim.ItwasthenBrandrealizedhewasnotdealingwiththemanincharge.Brandsaysthatafterusinghisextensivenetworkthetrailleads
directlytotwomuchmoreprominentUkrainianfigures:OlegTyahnybok,aformerparliamentarianwhoistheleaderoftheanti-semitic
Svobodamovement,andValentynNalyvaichenko,formerheadoftheSBU,theUkrainiansecretservice."

[Ed:Ohyes,ValNalhashadnothingbettertodowithhistimethantodealinstolenDutchartwork!.......Incidentally,VN
istheonethatpointedtoRU'srealintendedtargetintheMH17shootdown......Perhaps,theDutchwouldbebetterserved
investigatingtheRUBukshootdownofaplanecarryingsomanyofitscitizens!!!!]

FINDERSKEEPERS?

12.12.1512:13AMET

UkraineExtremistsWithStolenDutchArtTryto
SellItBack
Theywantedmorethan$5millionforthe24classicpaintingstakenfromtheWestfriesMuseum.Thecounter-offer:1percentof
that.Sotheyrelookingtosellelsewhere.

AMSTERDAMBorysisasympatheticcrook,saysArthurBrand,anartrecoveryexpertwhosebusinesshasledto
encounterswithallsortsofcriminals.But,hecautions,GuyslikethatarekindofJekyllandHyde.

AndBorys,fullnameBorysHumeniuk,isinUkraine,whereheshookedupwithsomefolkswhoaredefinitelyontheHyde
sideinatruetaleofarttheft,OldMasters,newmilitias,secretservices,andarmspurchases.

InameetingthattookplaceonAug.4atanofficerightnextdoortotheDutchembassyintheUkrainiancapital,Kiev,the
DutchWestfriesMuseumwasofferedachancetobuyback24paintingsstolenin2005.

Humeniukwastheretobrokerthedeal,andassoonasBrandsawhimheavy-set,squareheaded,withpenetratinglight
browneyeshethought,Thisissomeoneyouwouldnotliketoencounteronthebattlefield.

Humeniukstyleshimselfasoldier-poet,andwasdeputycommanderoftheOUN,orOrganizationofUkrainianNationalists.
ThegroupisnamedaftertheinfamousultranationalistmilitarymovementknownforhelpingtheNazis,thenfightingthem,
duringWorldWarII,andinthemeantimeslaughteringtensofthousandsofJewsandPoles.

Incurrent-dayUkrainianpolitics,thisnewOUNisinvolvedinthearmedstruggleagainsttheMoscow-backedUkrainian
separatistsintheeastofthecountry,whereHumeniukhascomplainedpubliclyaboutthelackofmilitarysuppliesfromthe
government,andisoftenlinkedtotheextremistSvobodaparty.Humeniuk,whoaccordingtotheOUNwasrecentlyfired
fromitsranks,nowappearsonthepoliticallistforSvoboda.TheartthatHumeniukwastryingtoflogconsistsoftwodozen
17thand18thcenturypaintingsdepictingtraditionalDutchlandscapes,portraitsandBiblicalscenesstolen,alongwitha
largecollectionofsilver,onthenightofJan.9,2005,fromthemuseuminHoorn,lessthananhoursdrivenorthof
Amsterdam.

DirectoroftheWestfriesMuseumAdGeerdink,left,DutcharthistorianandartdetectiveArthurBrand,center,andHoornmayorYvonnevanMastrigt,
right,giveapressconferenceonartworksstolenfromthemuseumin2005,inHoornonDecember7,2015.(OlafKraak/AFP/Getty)

AmongthepaintingswereRebeccaandEliezerbyJanLinsensandtheratherbawdyandbaroqueLadyWorldby
JacobWaben.

ArttheftexpertBrandtraveledtotheregiontoinvestigatethecase.Themuseumaskedmetohandlethetalksoverthe
collectionofartworks,Brandsays.BeforethemeetingIlookedintowhomIwasmeeting,thisBorysHumeniuk,apretty
heavyguy.WhenIsawhimfirst,Imustadmit,therewaspartofmethatlikedhim.

Amonthearlier,HumeniukhadapproachedtheDutchembassyinKiev.Hesaidtheultranationalistmilitiahadfoundthe
collectionofpaintingsinavillabelongingtosomesympathizersofoustedPrimeMinisterViktorYanukovych.ButBrand
giveslittlecredencetothatversionofevents.

Stolenartisoftenusedinidealsamongcriminals,sometimesforbarter,sometimesascollateral,andmaychangehands
severaltimesintheprocess.Inevitablythosewhotrytoransomitclaimtheyfounditbyaccident,or,asthemobinthe
U.S.likestosay,itfelloffthebackofatruck.Thereisnoindicationthusfarwhotheoriginalthievesmighthavebeen.

Intheinitialcontacts,inJuly,anemailwassenttothemuseumwithaphotographofoneofthepaintingsandanew
newspapernexttoit(muchlikephotosofhumansheldhostage).Thepeoplewhohadtheartclaimedtheyjustwantedto
returnittotheNetherlandsandonlyaskedforalittlecompensationfortheexpenses,saysBrand.Butitalsosaidthey
thoughtthecollectionwasworth50million.SoIpredictedtheyjustwantedmoney.Inthesecircumstancesa10percent
findersfeeiscommon,soIsaid,Theywillaskfor5million.Whichiswhattheydid.

InJuly,anemailwassenttothemuseumwithaphotographofoneofthepaintingsand
anewnewspapernexttoit(muchlikephotosofhumansheldhostage).

Brandhadnointentionofpayingthatmuch.Bythemuseumsestimate,theartwork,valuedataround1.3million($1.42
million)beforetherobbery,wasnowworthnomorethanabout500,000becauseoftheextensivedamagecausedwhen
therobberscutthepaintingsoutoftheirframesandshippedthemabroad.Brandwouldoffernomorethan50,000inthe
nameofthemuseum.

Iunderstandnowthattheyreworthmuchless,butIwillhaveahardtimeconvincingthepeoplewhoassignedmeto
acceptthat,Humeniuktoldhim.ItwasthenBrandrealizedhewasnotdealingwiththemanincharge.Brandsaysthat
afterusinghisextensivenetworkthetrailleadsdirectlytotwomuchmoreprominentUkrainianfigures:OlegTyahnybok,a
formerparliamentarianwhoistheleaderoftheanti-semiticSvobodamovement,andValentynNalyvaichenko,formerhead
oftheSBU,theUkrainiansecretservice.

AUkrainianpoliticianwithtiestothemilitiaofvolunteerstoldBrandthemuseumwasntseenastherightfulproprietorbut
asjustanotherinterestedparty.ThatcontactwasalsotheonewhotoldBrandthemanbehindthedealwasTyahnybok.

 From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 12/14/201509:24:42AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[MOREBADNEWSFROMTHE'VLADLANDS']AP/EdithLederer:RUSaysUN'sUAMeetingShouldNotDiscussHumanRights.....DE/TomBatchelor:"Putinsends20,000troopsto
Subject:
beefupRussianrebelsinbloodyUkrainecivilwar"......FPN/DanGreenfield:"NEWRU...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Sunday,December13,20153:12PM
Subject:Fwd:[MOREBADNEWSFROMTHE'VLADLANDS']AP/EdithLederer:RUSaysUN'sUAMeetingShouldNotDiscussHumanRights.....DE/TomBatchelor:"Putinsends
20,000troopstobeefupRussianrebelsinbloodyUkrainecivilwar"......FPN/DanGreenfield:"NEWRU...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Sun,Dec13,2015at6:03PM
Subject:[MOREBADNEWSFROMTHE'VLADLANDS']AP/EdithLederer:RUSaysUN'sUAMeetingShouldNotDiscussHumanRights.....DE/TomBatchelor:
"Putinsends20,000troopstobeefupRussianrebelsinbloodyUkrainecivilwar"......FPN/DanGreenfield:"NEWRUSSIANPROPAGANDA:UKRAINEIS
RACIST"[New??].......Dutch'Correspondent'LookstoPinStolenArtWorksonSBU'sValNal
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

ITEMI---RUCLAIMSHUMANRIGHTSISSUEINCRIMEAISADISTRACTION

Russia:UN'sUkraineMeetingShouldn'tDiscussHumanRights
BYEDITHM.LEDERER,ASSOCIATEDPRESS

UNITEDNATIONSDec11,2015,9:30PMET

9SHARES



E m a i l

AU.N.SecurityCouncilmeetingonUkrainewasdelayedfornearlyanhourandahalfFridaybecauseRussia
objectedtodiscussingthehumanrightssituationinthecountry'sseparatist-controlledeastandCrimea.

RussianAmbassadorVitalyChurkintoldcouncilmembersthathumanrightsdiscussionsshouldtakeplaceinthe
U.N.'sGeneva-basedHumanRightsCouncil.Hesaidraisinghumanrightswas"nothingmorethananattemptto
distractattentionfromthemostimportantgoaltoday,"implementingtheMinskagreementthatwasintendedtoend
thefighting.

ItwastheUnitedStatesthatinvitedaseniorU.N.humanrightsofficialtobriefthecouncilonUkraine.TheU.S.and
theWesthaverepeatedlyaccusedRussiaofsupportingtheseparatistswithtroopsandweapons,whichMoscow
hasdenied.

"OnedoeswonderwhatRussiaseekstohide,"saidU.S.AmbassadorSamanthaPower,thecurrentcouncil
president."Butweunderstanditsveryunfortunatedesiretopreventthecouncilfromhearinginconvenientfacts."

AssistantSecretary-GeneralforHumanRightsIvanSimonovictoldthecouncilthatmorethan9,000peoplehave
beenkilledsincetheconflictbeganinApril2014.Hecalledthataconservativeestimate.

Evenwith"relativemilitarycalm"intheeast,Simonovicsaid,thelackofruleoflawmakesthehumanrightssituation
oftheestimated2.7millionpeoplelivinginseparatist-controlledDonetskandLuhanskverydifficult.

"Reportsofhumanrightsabusesontheseterritoriespersist,includingthoserelatedtokillings,tortureandill-
treatment,illegaldetentionandforcedlabor,"hesaid."Localresidentscontinuetoremainwithoutanyeffective
protectionoftheirrights,andthereisalackofaccountability."

Simonovicalsosaidtherehasbeennoimprovementin2015inCrimea,whichRussiaannexedlastyear.

"Fundamentally,itisstillnotpossibletoexpressviewsthatdifferfromthosepromotedbythedefactoauthoritiesand
theRussianFederation,"hesaid.

JohnGing,thedirectorofoperationsintheU.N.humanitarianoffice,toldthecouncilthat800,000peoplelivein
"difficultanddangerousconditions"alongthelinebetweengovernmentandrebelareas.

Hestronglyprotestedtherecentexpulsionofaidorganizationsinseparatist-controlledareas,sayingithashad"a
devastatingimpactonanalreadyvulnerableandsufferingpeople."

Onealarmingexample,Gingsaid,wastheendofaDoctorsWithoutBordersprogramthatwastreating146multi-
drug-resistanttuberculosispatients.Hesaidthisdramaticallyincreasestherisksofitsspread.

ITEMII---IFVERIFIED,THEFOLLOWINGCOULDBEAGAME-CHANGER

Putinsends20,000troopstobeefupRussianrebelsin
bloodyUkrainecivilwar
VLADIMIRPutinhasdeployedanextra20,000soldierstothefrontlineofUkrainescivilwar,astemperaturesandhopesofalastingceasefirecontinuetoplummet.

ByTOMBATCHELOR

PUBLISHED:06:01,Sat,Dec12,2015|UPDATED:12:47,Sat,Dec12,2015

1K 85

GETTY

VladimirPutinandapro-Russianrebel

ThefreshdeploymenttakesthenumberofRussiantroopsintheregionto70,000-amoveUkrainespresidentdescribedasblatantaggressionaimedatcausingfurther
unrest.

Thefightingforceisstationedintheeastofthewar-scarredcountry,wherefiercebattlesbetweengovernmentbackedrebelsandRussian-backedseparatistshave
claimedthelivesofmorethan9,000inthe20-monthlongconflict.

PetroPoroshenkoattackedtheKremlinforusingbombingraidsinSyriaascovertodiverttheworldsattentionfromongoingaggressioninUkraine.

Meanwhile,USVicePresidentJoeBidenwarnedRussiathatWesternpressureonMoscowwouldonlyincreaseifRussian"aggression"againstneighbouringUkraine
continued.

DuringavisittoKiev,hesaid:"IfRussianaggressionpersists,thecostimposedonMoscowwillcontinuetorise."

RussiaannexedUkraine'sCrimeapeninsulainMarch2014andhasbeenaccusedofsendingpro-Kremlinfighterstocarveouttheirownregionintheex-Sovietstate.
 GETTY

RussiaannexedUkraine'sCrimeapeninsulainMarch2014

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PetroPoroshenkoattackedtheKremlinforusingbombingraidsinSyriaascover

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Ukrainiantroopshavebeenfightingrebelsfor20months

Asaresult,theKremlinhasbeenhitwitheconomicsanctionsfromWesternpowersangryattheincursion.

TheEUsaidearlierthatitplannedtoextendsanctionsnextweekbeforeEUmemberstates'leadersmeetinBrusselsonDecember17-18fortheirlastsummitof2015.

ButMoscowdeniesallinvolvementintheconflictandhasbannedimportsofWesternfoodinresponse.
 UkraineinPictures
Thu,August14,2014

AUkrainianwarplanewasblownoutoftheskyoverrebel-heldterritoryasfierceclashesbetweengovernmenttroopsandpro-Russianinsurgentsleftdozensofciviliansdead.At
least415,800peoplehavefledtheirhomesduetofightingbetweengovernmentforcesandpro-RussianseparatistsineasternUkraine,theUNrefugeeagencysaidonAugust20.
Thesepowerfulimagesshowhowlocalresidentsliveshavebeenaffected

PAUSESLIDESHOW

AP

14of47

Ukrainiangovernmentsoldiersfrombattalion"Donbass"restattheirpositionsinvillageMariinkanearDonetsk,easternUkraine

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After20monthsofintensefightingbetweenUkrainianmilitaryandRussian-backedarmedgroups,9,115peoplehavebeenkilledand20,797injured,withciviliansamong
thedeadandwounded.

AreportbytheofficeoftheUNHighCommissionerforHumanRightssaidkillingsandtortureremainedcommonplace.

Investigatorsfoundasteadyflowof"ammunition,weaponryandfightersfromtheRussianFederation"werecombingtocreate"highlyflammable"situationinthewar-
ravagedcountry,buttheyaddedthatthereweretentativesignsofadeescalationintheconflict.

ThedeploymentcomesasUkrainessecurityservicesaidyesterdayithadarrestedanextremistcellinvolvingthreeRussiannationalsthathadstockpiledbombs
andplannedtocarryout"terroristattacks.

AspokeswomanforUkrainessecurityservice,SBU,said:TheinsurgentsplannedtostageterroristactsinKievandKharkivtodestabilisethesituationinthe
country.

Aroundthreemillionpeopleliveinrebelheldterritory,wheremovementisseverelyrestrictedandresidentsfacedailythreatsofviolence.

ITEMII---RUPROPAGANDAMOVINGINTOREALLYHIGHGEAR

NEWRUSSIANPROPAGANDA:UKRAINEIS
RACIST
"AndyouarelynchingNegroes"
December13,2015

DanielGreenfield

FinallyPutinhasfiguredouthowtosellhisinvasiontoObama.

UnlikeSovietRussia,Putin'sRussiacan'tcountonareliableleftistbaseforitspropaganda.Soitbombardsthemarginswithmessagestailoredto
them.Thistacticmainlytargetstheextremes,thefarleftandthefarright,conspiracytheorists,anarchists,peoplewhoarewillingtoembrace
anythingthatisanti-establishment.That'sthebasicprincipleofRussia'sRTwhichfusestabloidsensibilitieswithradicalpolitics.Thetactic
occasionallypicksuptraitorslikeEdwardSnowden,aRonPaulsupporterwhoturnedintotheAldrichAmesofthe21stcentury,sellingoutAmerican
secretstoMoscow.

Mostlyitworksonpeoplewhoaren'tpayingattentionbecausetherearetoomanycontradictorymessages.

Putin'sRussia(unlikeAmerica)isaplacewhereyoucanreallybefreeunderastrongregime.Itdoesn'tinvadeothercountries(likeAmerica)but
whenitdoes,it'sonlybecauseAmericabackeditintoacorner.It'sastrong"Christian"countrythatdoesn'toppressMuslims,butstronglyfights
terrorism,butnotinabadAmericanwaythatviolatescivilrights.

Anyonewhoknowswhat'sactuallygoingoninRussiaknowsallthisisuptherewiththeoldSovietpropagandaabouthowAmericanswerestarving
whileSovietagriculturewasbooming.

RussiaandUkrainehavebothstruggledtomakeAmericanscareabouttheirwar.(Shootingdownaplanehelpeddoit.)ForRussia,it'samoreuphill
battle.Tothemargins,itdispatchesmessagesaboutaneo-conservativeglobalistinternationalconspiracythatforcedittoinvadeandannexpartof
anothercountry.ThisstuffplayswelltotheGlennGreenwald-RonPaulcrowdthatbelievesitanyway.

Makinganyoneelsebelieveitisharder.SoherecomesanewtalkingpointtowarmthecocklesoftheSocialJusticeWarriorheart.Ukraineisracist.

ThiscomesfromMikhailKlikushin,whohasbeennotedforthrowingoutRussiangovernmenttalkingpointsbefore.
 Unlikehispeers,hehasaverypersonalreasontowantthishappen.ZhanBeleniukisatypicalUkrainianineverywaybuthis
skincolor.Hisfather,whoheneverknew,wasfromRwanda.HewasastudentoftheAviationInstituteintheSovietUkraineand,
beingapilot,waskilledinactionatthetimeofwarinthisAfricancountry.ZhansUkrainianmother,Svetlana,raisedhimalone.

ConsideringthekindsofpeopletheUSSRtendedtotrain,wecanhazardaguessaboutpoordearZhan'sfather.ButfinallyPutinhasbroughtback
thatclassicstapleofSovietpropaganda,"AndyouarelynchingNegroes"

"AndyouarelynchingNegroes"goessomethinglikethis.

TheAmericanasks:"HowmanydecadesdoesittakeanaverageSovietmantoearnenoughmoneytobuyaSovietcar?"Afterathoughtfulpause,
theSovietreplies:"AndyouarelynchingNegroes!"

SonowUkraineis"lynchingnegroes".

ThereareothersinthecountrywhoselooksdontfittheprofileofanAryanUkrainian,aprofilecelebratedbyUkrainian
nationalistsenjoyingtheirmomentinalotofplacesofpowerinthecountry,othermuchmorevulnerablethanZhan,whofor
differentreasonscametoUkrainefromAfricaandnowhavetoexperienceracismonthestreetsalmosteveryday.

IntheendofJuly,anumberofUkrainiannewspapersbrokethestoryof23-year-oldAsi,arefugeefromtheAfricanstateofSierra
LeonewhocametoUkrainejustsixmonthsago.AtthebusstationatthetownofUzhgorod,whichisinWestUkraine,theyoung
womanandher8-month-oldsonweretryingtoboardthebusbutwereviolentlythrownoffbythefuriouspassengerswhodidnt
wanttotravelinhercompanybecauseshewasnotlikethem.Theviolentattackwasfilmedbytheangrycrowdthatwas
shoutingTiehertothefencetogetherwiththekid!Thebusdrivercalledpolice,whouponarrivalhand-cuffedandtookaway
theunfortunatevictimofracialabusewhowashystericallyscreaminginEnglish,facingthehostilecrowdofUkrainian
Europeanswhocouldntunderstandherpleas.

YouinvadeUkraine.Butthey'relynchingnegroes.

InRussiathough,thiskindofthingdoesnothappenbecausenooneisracistinRussiaandeveryonelovesAfricanswhoshowupthere.
Sometimestheylovethemtodeath.

ThemenwhojumpedtheIvoryCoastmigrantatacrowdedMoscowtrainstationlastNovemberdidnotrobhim.Butthey
damagedhisjawtothedegreethatdoctorshadtoinstallametalplatetoholditinplace.IttookBaziefourmonthstoraisethe
$3,600toundergosurgery.

AfricansinRussia:IntheNov.2SectionA,anarticleabouthostilityagainstAfricanblacksinRussiasaidtherehadbeen177
reportedactsofviolenceagainstblacksinRussiasince2010,accordingtotheSOVACenterforInformationandAnalysis.There
wereactually177reportedviolentactsagainstblackssince2008,SOVAofficialssay,sixofwhichendedindeath.

Hisstoryisnotuncommon,Russiancivilandhumanrightsleaderssay.Africanmigrantsfacewidespreadhostilityandracism
thatusuallygounpunished.

ThissortofthinghappenedalotbackintheSovietdayswhentheregimewasimportingAfricanCommuniststotrainasterroristsattheiruniversities
onaregularbasis.

Itshouldn'tbesurprisingbecause,contrarytoliberaldogma,90percentoftheworldisracist.IncludingAfrica.AndI'mbeinggeneroushere.Russia
andUkrainearejustasracistandRussianpropagandistsreallyneedtostopmovingoldSovietpropagandahere.

There'sareason,"AndyouarelynchingNegroes"becameacliche,asignofhowbankruptanddishonestSovietpropagandistswere.

TheonlypeoplewhobelievethisgarbagealsobelieveeverythingMaxBlumenthalandGlennGreenwaldsay.
Tags:Russia,Ukraine

ITEMIII----SPEAKINGOFRUSSIANPROPAGANDA[DressedUpAsDutchJournalism]......LOOKATTHISDOOZIE:

Iunderstandnowthattheyreworthmuchless,butIwillhaveahardtimeconvincingthepeoplewhoassignedmetoacceptthat,Humeniuk
toldhim.ItwasthenBrandrealizedhewasnotdealingwiththemanincharge.Brandsaysthatafterusinghisextensivenetworkthetrailleads
directlytotwomuchmoreprominentUkrainianfigures:OlegTyahnybok,aformerparliamentarianwhoistheleaderoftheanti-semitic
Svobodamovement,andValentynNalyvaichenko,formerheadoftheSBU,theUkrainiansecretservice."

[Ed:Ohyes,ValNalhashadnothingbettertodowithhistimethantodealinstolenDutchartwork!.......Incidentally,VN
istheonethatpointedtoRU'srealintendedtargetintheMH17shootdown......Perhaps,theDutchwouldbebetterserved
investigatingtheRUBukshootdownofaplanecarryingsomanyofitscitizens!!!!]

FINDERSKEEPERS?

12.12.1512:13AMET

UkraineExtremistsWithStolenDutchArtTryto
SellItBack
Theywantedmorethan$5millionforthe24classicpaintingstakenfromtheWestfriesMuseum.Thecounter-offer:1percentof
that.Sotheyrelookingtosellelsewhere.

AMSTERDAMBorysisasympatheticcrook,saysArthurBrand,anartrecoveryexpertwhosebusinesshasledto
encounterswithallsortsofcriminals.But,hecautions,GuyslikethatarekindofJekyllandHyde.

AndBorys,fullnameBorysHumeniuk,isinUkraine,whereheshookedupwithsomefolkswhoaredefinitelyontheHyde
sideinatruetaleofarttheft,OldMasters,newmilitias,secretservices,andarmspurchases.

InameetingthattookplaceonAug.4atanofficerightnextdoortotheDutchembassyintheUkrainiancapital,Kiev,the
DutchWestfriesMuseumwasofferedachancetobuyback24paintingsstolenin2005.

Humeniukwastheretobrokerthedeal,andassoonasBrandsawhimheavy-set,squareheaded,withpenetratinglight
browneyeshethought,Thisissomeoneyouwouldnotliketoencounteronthebattlefield.

Humeniukstyleshimselfasoldier-poet,andwasdeputycommanderoftheOUN,orOrganizationofUkrainianNationalists.
ThegroupisnamedaftertheinfamousultranationalistmilitarymovementknownforhelpingtheNazis,thenfightingthem,
duringWorldWarII,andinthemeantimeslaughteringtensofthousandsofJewsandPoles.

Incurrent-dayUkrainianpolitics,thisnewOUNisinvolvedinthearmedstruggleagainsttheMoscow-backedUkrainian
separatistsintheeastofthecountry,whereHumeniukhascomplainedpubliclyaboutthelackofmilitarysuppliesfromthe
government,andisoftenlinkedtotheextremistSvobodaparty.Humeniuk,whoaccordingtotheOUNwasrecentlyfired
fromitsranks,nowappearsonthepoliticallistforSvoboda.TheartthatHumeniukwastryingtoflogconsistsoftwodozen
17thand18thcenturypaintingsdepictingtraditionalDutchlandscapes,portraitsandBiblicalscenesstolen,alongwitha
largecollectionofsilver,onthenightofJan.9,2005,fromthemuseuminHoorn,lessthananhoursdrivenorthof
Amsterdam.

DirectoroftheWestfriesMuseumAdGeerdink,left,DutcharthistorianandartdetectiveArthurBrand,center,andHoornmayorYvonnevanMastrigt,
right,giveapressconferenceonartworksstolenfromthemuseumin2005,inHoornonDecember7,2015.(OlafKraak/AFP/Getty)

AmongthepaintingswereRebeccaandEliezerbyJanLinsensandtheratherbawdyandbaroqueLadyWorldby
JacobWaben.

ArttheftexpertBrandtraveledtotheregiontoinvestigatethecase.Themuseumaskedmetohandlethetalksoverthe
collectionofartworks,Brandsays.BeforethemeetingIlookedintowhomIwasmeeting,thisBorysHumeniuk,apretty
heavyguy.WhenIsawhimfirst,Imustadmit,therewaspartofmethatlikedhim.

Amonthearlier,HumeniukhadapproachedtheDutchembassyinKiev.Hesaidtheultranationalistmilitiahadfoundthe
collectionofpaintingsinavillabelongingtosomesympathizersofoustedPrimeMinisterViktorYanukovych.ButBrand
giveslittlecredencetothatversionofevents.

Stolenartisoftenusedinidealsamongcriminals,sometimesforbarter,sometimesascollateral,andmaychangehands
severaltimesintheprocess.Inevitablythosewhotrytoransomitclaimtheyfounditbyaccident,or,asthemobinthe
U.S.likestosay,itfelloffthebackofatruck.Thereisnoindicationthusfarwhotheoriginalthievesmighthavebeen.

Intheinitialcontacts,inJuly,anemailwassenttothemuseumwithaphotographofoneofthepaintingsandanew
newspapernexttoit(muchlikephotosofhumansheldhostage).Thepeoplewhohadtheartclaimedtheyjustwantedto
returnittotheNetherlandsandonlyaskedforalittlecompensationfortheexpenses,saysBrand.Butitalsosaidthey
thoughtthecollectionwasworth50million.SoIpredictedtheyjustwantedmoney.Inthesecircumstancesa10percent
findersfeeiscommon,soIsaid,Theywillaskfor5million.Whichiswhattheydid.

InJuly,anemailwassenttothemuseumwithaphotographofoneofthepaintingsand
anewnewspapernexttoit(muchlikephotosofhumansheldhostage).

Brandhadnointentionofpayingthatmuch.Bythemuseumsestimate,theartwork,valuedataround1.3million($1.42
million)beforetherobbery,wasnowworthnomorethanabout500,000becauseoftheextensivedamagecausedwhen
therobberscutthepaintingsoutoftheirframesandshippedthemabroad.Brandwouldoffernomorethan50,000inthe
nameofthemuseum.

Iunderstandnowthattheyreworthmuchless,butIwillhaveahardtimeconvincingthepeoplewhoassignedmeto
acceptthat,Humeniuktoldhim.ItwasthenBrandrealizedhewasnotdealingwiththemanincharge.Brandsaysthat
afterusinghisextensivenetworkthetrailleadsdirectlytotwomuchmoreprominentUkrainianfigures:OlegTyahnybok,a
formerparliamentarianwhoistheleaderoftheanti-semiticSvobodamovement,andValentynNalyvaichenko,formerhead
oftheSBU,theUkrainiansecretservice.

AUkrainianpoliticianwithtiestothemilitiaofvolunteerstoldBrandthemuseumwasntseenastherightfulproprietorbut
asjustanotherinterestedparty.ThatcontactwasalsotheonewhotoldBrandthemanbehindthedealwasTyahnybok.