[GKMOJO] PROBABILITY
PROBABILITY FORMULA
The likelihood of an event happening is probability. A fine day during
rainy season may have the probability to rain on a particular day or not
to rain. We can say that in both the situations each outcome is equally
likely. Then in this type of situation, we can use the formula to find the
chances of happening of an event.
A chance of prediction is probability –
when we are betting on happening of an event then the chances, let’s say,
are said to be “x” and at the same time betting on not happening of an
event is just the opposite of the variable, that is, “1-x”.
The formula of probability of an event is:
Now let’s see an example:
Q: What is the probability that a card taken from a deck
of cards, which by the way has 52 cards, is an Ace?
Solution: Since we know that the number of aces that a deck of
card contains is four, the number of favourable outcome will be
four.
Now, by looking at the formula we come to the conclusion that the
probability of finding an ace from a deck would be =
P(Ace) = Number of favourable outcome / Total number of
favourable outcomes)
P(Ace) = 4/52
= 1/13
So we can say that the probability is 1/13.
In case of Independent events:
Similarly if the probability of an event occurring is “a” and an
independent probability is “b”, then the probability of both the event
occurring is “ab”.
When we talk about independent events then the probability of
event A occurring is just as equal even if event B is occurring or
not.
Suppose a coin is tossed twice. The probability if the head is
coming up on the second toss is ½ even if head came in the first
toss. These events are independent. It is the same way when we
say “It will rain tomorrow in Delhi” and “It will rain tomorrow in
Mumbai” since these two events are not related. We call these
events independent because it is possible that it might rain in
Delhi when it is not raining in Mumbai.
In formulas, representing the probability of independent
individual event happening is –
So, In our coin example above, the probability that heads with
come up both time is: ½ X ½ = ¼
Now let’s solve some more examples:
SOLVED EXAMPLES
Question 1: Calculate the probability of getting an odd number if
a dice is rolled?
Solution:
Sample space(S) if a die is rolled = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Let “E” be the event of getting an odd number, E = {1, 3, 5}
So, the Probability of getting an odd number P(E) = Number of outcomes
favourable / Total number of outcomes
= n(E)/n(S) = 3/6 = ½
Example 2: A pack contains 4 blue, 2 red and 3 black pens. If 2 pens are
drawn at random from the pack, NOT replaced and then another pen is
drawn. What is the probability of drawing 2 blue pens and 1 black pen?
Solution:
Probability of drawing 1 blue pen = 4/9
Probability of drawing another blue pen = 3/8
Probability of drawing 1 black pen = 3/7
Probability of drawing 2 blue pens and 1 black pen = 4/9 * 3/8 * 3/7 = 1/14
Example 3: What is the probability of drawing a king and a queen
consecutively from a deck of 52 cards, without replacement.
Probability of drawing a king = 4/52 = 1/13
After drawing one card, the number of cards are 51.
Probability of drawing a queen = 4/51.
Now, the probability of drawing a king and queen consecutively is 1/13 *
4/51 = 4/663
All the best by GKmojo
