Transportation Planning
Lecture 3 – Trip Generation
Ali Ajwad
Department of Civil Engineering
University of Management and Technology
Trip Generation
• Trip generation is the process of determining the number
of trips that will begin or end in each TAZ within a study
area.
• It is the first step of the four-step modelling procedure
and is very important since it sets up:
• The framework for the following tasks, and also
• The controlling values such as the total number of trips
generated in the study area by location and trip purpose.
2
Trip Generation
Trip?
• A trip, for the purpose of analysis, is defined as a one-way
movement from an origin to a destination.
Origin Destination
• Each trip has two ends, and these are described in terms of
trip purpose, or whether the trips are either produced by a
traffic zone or attracted to a traffic zone.
• For example, a home-to-work trip would be considered to have a trip
end produced in the home zone and attracted to the work zone.
3
Trip Generation
• The principal task of trip generation analysis is to relate
the intensity of trip making to and from land use parcels
to measures of the type and intensity of land use.
• Two types of trip generation analysis are carried out, and
these are referred to as,
• Trip production analysis, and
• Trip attraction analysis
4
Trip Generation
• The term trip production refers to the trips generated by
residential zones, where these trips may have trip origins
or trip destination.
• The term trip attraction is used to describe trips
generated by activities at the non-home end of trips.
5
Trip Generation
• Based on the convention of trip generation models:
• Origins and Destinations are defined in terms of the direction
of the trip
• Productions and Attractions are defined by the land use
• Residential Land use PRODUCES trip ends
• Non-residential land use ATTRACTS trip ends
• This is a useful distinction because of how trip generation
models are typically developed
6
Trip Generation
7
Trip Generation
• Urban travel demands are made up of a number of different
trip types that have specific spatial and temporal
characteristics.
• The first level of trip classification, used normally, is a broad
grouping into,
• Home based trips; trips that have one trip end at a
household
• Non-home based trips; e.g. trips b/w work place and
shopping area, business trips b/w two activity centres, etc.
8
Trip Generation
Household?
• A household is usually a group of persons, who normally
live together and take their meals from a common
kitchen unless the exigencies of work prevents any of
them from doing so.
• Persons in a household may be related or unrelated to
one another or a mix of both.
9
Trip Generation
Household?
• A group of unrelated persons who live in an institution
and take their meals from a common kitchen is called an
institutional household.
• Examples: hostels, rescue homes, orphanages, jails,
hotels etc.
10
Trip Generation
Total Trips = 8
4 trip ends are produced at zone 1
6 trip ends are attracted to zone 2
2 trip ends are produced at and 4 trip ends are
attracted to zone 3.
11
Trip Generation
Simply, trip generation analysis has two functions:
• The goal of trip generation models for internal passenger
trips is to estimate total number of ‘trip ends’ for each
purpose generated in each traffic zone based on socio-
economic and/or land use data for the respective zones.
• To use the relationship to estimate the number of trips
generated at some future date under a new set of land
use conditions.
12
Trip Generation
This task can be accomplished with either aggregate or
disaggregate models.
• For aggregate models the total number of trips (trip ends)
generated in a zone is used as the dependent variable.
• For disaggregate models trips made by a household (or a
business establishment) is used as the dependent variable.
When using disaggregate models the trip ends generated by
households, and/or any other trip generating units such as
business establishments, in a zone are combined to produce
the zonal (total) value.
13
Trip Generation
1. Cross-Classification
disaggregate models
2. Rate Based Analysis
3. Multiple Regression Analysis – aggregated model
It is important to note that the primary focus is on trip
production (generation) models for internal passenger trips
made by households since household generated trips
comprise a major portion of all trips in an urban area
(more than 80%).
14
Trip Generation
Home-based trips classification:
The classifications that have been used in major urban transport
planning studies for home-based trips (based on their purpose) are:
i. Work trips
ii. Educational trips (inclusive of schools, universities etc.)
iii. Shopping trips
iv. Personal business trips
v. Work related business trips, and
vi. Social and recreational trips
15
Modeling Trip Production
• The process of relating the trips produced by households
to the factors influencing trip production by appropriate
analytical technique is termed as trip production
modelling.
• The number of trips produced depends on several factors
related to the household.
16
Modeling Trip Production
Studies have shown that the most important household
characteristics related to trip production
i. Household size and composition
ii. Number of employed persons
iii. Number of students
iv. Household income
v. Vehicle ownership, etc.
17
Modeling Trip Production
Survey Base Year
Socio-economic, land use
And
Trip making
Estimated Calibrated
Model Predicted
Target year
Relating trip making Target year
socio-economic,
to socio-economic No. of Trips
land use data and land use data
18
Modeling Trip Production
• The trip generation model typically can take the form:
No. of trips = Function (pop, income, auto ownership rates)
• The model is developed and calibrated using BASE year
data
19
Regression Analysis
Modelling trip production, in essence, involves relating a
dependent variable to a set of independent variables.
Thus, the most common analytical tool used for this
purpose is the regression analysis.
20
Regression Analysis
21
Regression Analysis - Example
• Suppose a transport planner wants to predict the number
of trips per year, using the number of licensed vehicles
per year. She takes a sample of 10 communities and
obtains the results shown in the following table:
22
Regression Analysis - Example
23
Regression Analysis - Example
24
Regression Analysis - Example
Y = 0.22 + 0.29X
25
Multiple Regression Analysis
Multiple Regression Analysis is based on trip generation as
a function of one or more independent variables. The
approach is mathematical and all of the variables are
considered random, and with normal distributions.
26
Multiple Regression Analysis
T1 = 0.34 (P) + 0.21 (DU) + 0.12 (A) ------ Trip Production
A2 = 57.2 + 0.87 (E) ------ Trip Attraction
Where:
T1 = Total number of trips produced in zone 1
A2 = Total number of trips attracted in zone 2
P = Total Population for zone 1
DU = Total number of dwelling units for zone 1
A = Total number of automobiles in zone 1
E = Total employment in zone 2
27
Multiple Regression Analysis
Multiple Regression Analysis is relatively simple to understand:
• First, data regarding the actual number of productions and
attractions is coupled with data about the area that is thought to
impact the production and attraction of trips.
• For instance, the total population is believed to impact the number of
trips produced. If the number of trips produced and the population for
the present and a few time periods in the past are known, it is possible to
develop a relationship between these parameters using statistical
regression.
28
Multiple Regression Analysis
• Second, once the relationship has been developed, extrapolation into
the future can be done by plugging the future population into the
relationship and solving it for the number of productions.
• The process is called Multiple Regression, because there are normally
several variables that impact trip production and attraction.
29
Shopping Trip Generation - Example
• A simple linear regression model is estimated for shopping-trip
generation during a shopping-trip peak hour. The model is:
T = 0.12 + 0.09 (h) + 0.011 (i) – 0.15 (e)
• T = Number of peak-hour vehicle-based shopping trips per household
• h = household size
• i = annual household income in thousands of dollars)
• e = employment in the household’s neighborhood, in hundreds
• A particular household has six members and an annual income of
$50,000. They currently live in a neighborhood with 450 retail employees,
but are moving to a new home in a neighborhood with 150 retail
employees. Calculate the predicted number of vehicle-based peak-hour
shopping trips the household makes before and after the move.
30
Social/Recreational Trip Generation - Example
• A model for social/recreational trip generation is estimated,
with data collected during a major holiday, as:
T = 0.04 + 0.018 (h) + 0.009 (i) – 0.16 (n)
• T = number of peak-hour vehicle-based social/recreational trips per
household
• h = household size
• i = annual household income in thousands of dollars
• n = number of nonworking household members
• A particular household has one working and five non-working
members, and an annual income of $50,000. How many peak-
hour social/recreational trips are predicted?
31
Total Trip Generation – Example
• A neighborhood has 205 retail employees and 700 households that can
be categorized into four types, with each type having characteristics as
follows:
• There are 100 type 1, 200 type 2, 350 type 3, and 50 type 4 households.
• Assuming that shopping, social/recreational, and work vehicle-based trips
all peak at the same time (for exposition purposes), determine the total
number of peak-hour trips (work, shopping, social/recreational) using the
generation models described in the previous examples.
32
Cross-Classification Analysis
• Most traffic analysis zones are tend to contain a mixture
of social and economic classes of people.
• The use of regression equations, based on aggregated
measures of zonal characteristics, tend to submerge
important characteristics of travel demand.
• Hence, a number of transportation planners have
proposed that this difficulty may be overcome by the use
of households, rather than traffic zones, as the basic unit
of trip making.
33
Cross-Classification Analysis
• Thus, the trip-production modelling technique, which is
based on the household and its characteristics, is known
as Category Analysis (CA), or Cross-Classification Analysis.
• It is simply a technique for estimating the trip production
characteristics of households, which have been sorted
into a number of separate categories according to a set of
properties that characterise the household.
34
Cross-Classification Analysis
• The first step is to develop a relationship between socio-
economic measures and trip production.
• The two variables most commonly used are average income
and auto ownership.
• The results of CA, for a hypothetical case, as example, is
shown in the following table:
35
Cross-Classification Analysis
No. of motor Number of persons per household Total
vehicles 1 2 3 4 5 6+
0 T 240 1080 1020 1000 880 1125 5345
H 800 1200 600 500 400 450 3950
P 0.30 0.9 1.70 2.00 2.20 2.40 1.35
1 T 301 4844 5781 7466 4956 4879 28227
H 344 2793 2472 3092 2046 1889 12636
P 0.875 1.73 2.34 2.41 2.42 2.58 2.23
2+ T 8 644 2220 3231 2424 3002 11521
H 5 294 717 1022 726 870 3634
P 1.6 2.16 3.10 3.16 3.34 3.45 3.17
Total T 549 6568 9021 11697 8260 9006 45101
H 1149 4287 3789 4614 3172 3209 20220
P 0.48 1.53 2.38 2.54 2.60 2.80 2.23
36
Cross-Classification Analysis
• Information of the type considered in the table may be
translated easily into zonal trip production estimates.
• The number of households within each traffic zone, i.e.
expected to fall within each cell of the matrix, are
estimated and multiplied by the trip rate and these
products, summed up, will give the zonal trip production.
37
Cross-Classification Analysis - Example
Number of Households and Total Trips made, categorised by household
size and car-ownership level
HH size Car Ownership
0 1 2 or more
No. of No. of No. of No. of No. of No. of
HHs Trips HHs Trips HHs Trips
1 925 1,098 1,872 4,821 121 206
2 1,471 2,105 1,934 6,129 692 1,501
3 1,268 1,850 3,071 13,989 4,178 19,782
4 or more 745 1,509 4,181 18,411 4,967 25,106
38
Cross-Classification Analysis - Example
Household Trip Rates
Household Size Car Ownership
0 1 2 or more
1 1.19 2.57 1.70
2 1.43 3.16 2.17
3 1.45 4.55 4.74
4 or more 2.02 4.40 5.05
39
Cross-Classification Analysis - Example
Forecasted number of households in one zone, categorised by HHs size and
Car-ownership level
Household Size Car Ownership
0 1 2 or more
1 24 42 8
2 10 51 107
3 11 31 158
4 or more 3 17 309
40
Cross-Classification Analysis - Example
Forecasted number of trips from this zone
Household Car Ownership
Size 0 1 2 or more Total
1 29 106 14 151
2 14 161 232 407
3 16 141 749 906
4 or more 6 75 1564 1645
Total 65 485 2559 3109
41
Cross-Classification Analysis - Example
• Advantages
• No prior info on shape of curves must be assumed
• Simple, easy to understand
• Can be used to account for time, space
• Disadvantages
• Does not permit extrapolation
• No goodness of fit measures
• Requires large sample size
42
Growth Factor Model
• Growth factor models - predict the number of trips
produced or attracted by a house hold or zone as a linear
function of explanatory variables.
• The models have the following basic equation:
number of future number of current
trips in the zone trips in that zone
growth factor
The growth factor fi depends on the
explanatory variable such as population
(P) of the zone ,
average house hold income (I) , average
vehicle ownership (V).
where the subscript " d" denotes the design year and the subscript "c" denotes the current year.
43
Growth Factor Model - Example
• Given that a zone has 275 household with car and 275
household without car and the average trip generation
rates for each groups is respectively 5.0 and 2.5 trips per
day. Assume that in the future, all household will have a
car. Determine the growth factor and future trips from
that zone assuming that the population and income
remains constant.
44
Growth Factor Model - Example
45
Balancing Attractions to Productions
• The final step in trip generation modeling
• The estimated number of trips produced at the household
level should be equal to the number of trips attracted at the
activity centers
• Each trip must have a production and an attraction end
• In reality, the estimation of productions and attractions will not
be equal
• As a rule of thumb the ratio of productions to attractions
should not differ by more than 10% prior to balancing
• Trip production totals are normally used as control totals, and
attractions are scaled to productions, because there is a
greater degree of confidence in the production models than in
the attraction models
46
Balancing Attractions to Productions - Example
47
Typical Trip Generation Process
Demographic and Socioeconomic inputs
Cross Classification Model
Trip Productions by
zone, by purpose
Employment, attraction landuse data
Balance (system-wide)
Regression model
PA Tables,
Trip Attractions by zone, by purpose
by purpose
48
Thanks
49
