2.
CORE, FUR1 2010 VCAA 13 MC
FURMATHS: CORE, Data Distributions
A garden supplies outlet sells water tanks. The monthly seasonal indices for the revenue
Time Series from the sale of water tanks are given below.
Teacher: Dora Verrocchi The seasonal index for September is missing.
Exam Equivalent Time: 85.5 minutes (based on VCE allocation of 2.25
min/mark for FUR1, and 1.5 min/mark for FUR2)
Questions
1. CORE, FUR1 2014 VCAA 10-11 MC The revenue from the sale of water tanks in September 2009 was $104 500.
The deseasonalised revenue for September 2009 is closest to
The seasonal indices for the first 11 months of the year, for sales in a sporting equipment
store, are shown in the table below. A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
Part 1
The seasonal index for December is
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
Part 2
In May, the store sold $213 956 worth of sporting equipment.
The deseasonalised value of these sales was closest to
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
3. CORE, FUR1 2012 VCAA 11-12 MC 4. CORE, FUR1 2017 VCAA 11 MC
Use the following information to answer Parts 1 and 2. Which one of the following statistics can never be negative?
The table below shows the long-term average rainfall (in mm) for summer, autumn, winter A. the maximum value in a data set
and spring. Also shown are the seasonal indices for summer and autumn. The seasonal
B. the value of a Pearson correlation coefficient
indices for winter and spring are missing.
C. the value of a moving mean in a smoothed time series
D. the value of a seasonal index
E. the value of the slope of a least squares line fitted to a scatterplot
5. CORE, FUR1 2018 VCAA 16 MC
The quarterly sales figures for a large suburban garden centre, in millions of dollars, for 2016
Part 1 and 2017 are displayed in the table below.
The seasonal index for spring is closest to
A.
B.
C.
D.
Using these sales figures, the seasonal index for Quarter 3 is closest to
E.
A. 1.28
B. 1.30
Part 2
C. 1.38
In 2011, the rainfall in autumn was 48.9 mm.
D. 1.46
The deseasonalised rainfall (in mm) for autumn is closest to
E. 1.48
A.
B.
6. CORE, FUR1 2007 VCAA 11-13 MC
C.
The following information relates to Parts 1, 2 and 3.
D.
The time series plot below shows the revenue from sales (in dollars) each month made by a
E. Queensland souvenir shop over a three-year period.
Part 3
The revenue from sales (in dollars) each month for the first year of the three-year period is
shown below.
Part 1 If this information is used to determine the seasonal index for each month, the seasonal
This time series plot indicates that, over the three-year period, revenue from sales each index for September will be closest to
month showed A.
A. no overall trend. B.
B. no correlation. C.
C. positive skew. D.
D. an increasing trend only. E.
E. an increasing trend with seasonal variation.
7. CORE, FUR1 2016 VCAA 14-16 MC
Part 2
The table below shows the long-term average of the number of meals served each day at a
A three median trend line is fitted to this data. restaurant. Also shown is the daily seasonal index for Monday through to Friday.
Its slope (in dollars per month) is closest to
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
Part 1
The seasonal index for Wednesday is 0.84
This tells us that, on average, the number of meals served on a Wednesday is
A. 16% less than the daily average.
B. 84% less than the daily average.
C. the same as the daily average.
D. 16% more than the daily average.
E. 84% more than the daily average.
Part 2
Last Tuesday, 108 meals were served in the restaurant.
The deseasonalised number of meals served last Tuesday was closest to
Part 1
A.
The time series plot has
B.
A. no trend.
C.
B. no variability.
D.
C. seasonality only.
E.
D. an increasing trend with seasonality.
E. an increasing trend only.
Part 3
The seasonal index for Saturday is closest to
Part 2
A.
The data values used to construct the time series plot are given below.
B.
C.
D.
E.
A four-point moving mean with centring is used to smooth timeline series.
8. CORE, FUR1 2008 VCAA 11-13 MC The smoothed value of the number of users in month number 5 is closest to
The time series plot below shows the number of users each month of an online help service
over a twelve-month period. A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
Part 3 10. CORE, FUR1 2015 VCAA 13 MC
A least squares regression line is fitted to the time series plot.
The quarterly seasonal indices for tractor sales for a supplier are displayed in Table 1.
The equation of this least squares regression line is
number of users = 346 + 2.77 × month number
Let month number 1 = January 2007, month number 2 = February 2007, and so on.
Using the above information, the regression line predicts that the number of users in
December 2009 will be closest to
A. The quarterly tractor sales in 2014 for this supplier are displayed in Table 2.
B.
C.
D.
E.
The sales data in Table 2 is to be deseasonalised before a least squares regression line is
fitted.
9. CORE, FUR1 2012 VCAA 13 MC The equation of this least squares regression line is closest to
A trend line was fitted to a deseasonalised set of quarterly sales data for 2012. A. deseasonalised sales = 0.32 + 910 × quarter number
The seasonal indices for quarters 1, 2 and 3 are given in the table below. The seasonal B. deseasonalised sales = 370 – 2300 × quarter number
index for quarter 4 is not shown.
C. deseasonalised sales = 910 + 0.32 × quarter number
D. deseasonalised sales = 2300 – 370 × quarter number
E. deseasonalised sales = 2300 – 0.32 × quarter number
11. CORE, FUR1 2017 VCAA 16 MC
The equation of the trend line is
The seasonal index for the sales of cold drinks in a shop in January is 1.6
Using this trend line, the actual sales for quarter 4 in 2012 are predicted to be closest to To correct the January sales of cold drinks for seasonality, the actual sales should be
A. A.
B. B.
C. C.
D. D.
E. E.
12. CORE, FUR1 2006 VCAA 11-13 MC
The following information relates to Parts 1, 2 and 3.
The table shows the seasonal indices for the monthly unemployment numbers for workers in
a regional town. 13. CORE, FUR1 2011 VCAA 12 MC
Part 1
The seasonal index for headache tablet sales in summer is 0.80.
The seasonal index for October is missing from the table.
To correct for seasonality, the headache tablet sales figures for summer should be
The value of the missing seasonal index for October is
A. reduced by 80%
A.
B. reduced by 25%
B.
C. reduced by 20%
C.
D. increased by 20%
D.
E. increased by 25%
E.
14. CORE, FUR1 2014 VCAA 12 MC
Part 2
The seasonal index for heaters in winter is 1.25.
The actual number of unemployed in the regional town in September is 330.
To correct for seasonality, the actual heater sales in winter should be
The deseasonalised number of unemployed in September is closest to
A. reduced by 20%.
A.
B. increased by 20%.
B.
C. reduced by 25%.
C.
D. increased by 25%.
D.
E. reduced by 75%.
E.
Part 3
A trend line that can be used to forecast the deseasonalised number of unemployed
workers in the regional town for the first nine months of the year is given by
deseasonalised number of unemployed = 373.3 – 3.38 × month number
where month 1 is January, month 2 is February, and so on.
The actual number of unemployed for June is predicted to be closest to
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
15. CORE, FUR2 2007 VCAA 2 16. CORE, FUR2 2009 VCAA 2
The mean surface temperature (in °C) of Australia for the period 1960 to 2005 is displayed The time series plot below shows the rainfall (in mm) for each month during 2008.
in the time series plot below.
a. Which month had the highest rainfall? (1 mark)
b. Use three-median smoothing to smooth the time series. Plot the smoothed time series on
the plot above.
Mark each smoothed data point with a cross (×). (2 marks)
c. Describe the general pattern in rainfall that is revealed by the smoothed time series plot. (1
mark)
a. In what year was the lowest mean surface temperature recorded? (1 mark)
The least squares method is used to fit a trend line to the time series plot.
b. The equation of this trend line is found to be
mean surface temperature =
× year
i. Use the trend line to predict the mean surface temperature (in °C) for 2010. Write
your answer correct to two decimal places. (1 mark)
The actual mean surface temperature in the year 2000 was 13.55°C.
ii. Determine the residual value (in °C) when the trend line is used to predict the mean
surface temperature for this year. Write your answer correct to two decimal places. (1
mark)
iii. By how many degrees does the trend line predict Australias mean surface
temperature will rise each year? Write your answer correct to three decimal places.
(1 mark)
17. CORE, FUR2 2010 VCAA 3 18. CORE, FUR2 2009 VCAA 4
Table 2 shows the Australian gross domestic product (GDP) per person, in dollars, at five a. Table 2 shows the seasonal indices for rainfall in summer, autumn and winter. Complete
yearly intervals for the period 1980 to 2005. the table by calculating the seasonal index for spring. (1 mark)
b. In 2008, a total of 188 mm of rain fell during summer.
Using the appropriate seasonal index in Table 2, determine the deseasonalised value for
the summer rainfall in 2008. Write your answer correct to the nearest millimetre. (1 mark)
c. What does a seasonal index of 1.05 tell us about the rainfall in autumn? (1 mark)
19. CORE, FUR2 2016 VCAA 4
The time series plot below shows the minimum rainfall recorded at the weather station each
month plotted against the month number (1 = January, 2 = February, and so on).
Rainfall is recorded in millimetres.
The data was collected over a period of one year.
a. Complete the time series plot above by plotting the GDP for the years 2000 and 2005. (1
mark)
b. Briefly describe the general trend in the data. (1 mark)
In Table 3, the variable year has been rescaled using 1980 = 0, 1985 = 5 and so on. The
new variable is time.
c. Use the variables time and GDP to write down the equation of the least squares regression
a. Five-median smoothing has been used to smooth the time series plot above.
line that can be used to predict GDP from time. Take time as the independent variable. (2
marks) The first four smoothed points are shown as crosses (×).
Complete the five-median smoothing by marking smoothed values with crosses (×) on the
d. In the year 2007, the GDP was $34 900. Find the error in the prediction if the least squares
time series plot above. (2 marks)
regression line calculated in part c. is used to predict GDP in 2007. (2 marks)
The maximum daily rainfall each month was also recorded at the weather station.
The table below shows the maximum daily rainfall each month for a period of one year.
Worked Solutions
1. CORE, FUR1 2014 VCAA 10-11 MC
The data in the table has been used to plot maximum daily rainfall against month number in
the time series plot below.
b. Two-mean smoothing with centring has been used to smooth the time series plot above.
The smoothed values are marked with crosses (×).
Using the data given in the table, show that the two-mean smoothed rainfall centred on
October is 157.25 mm. (2 marks)
2. CORE, FUR1 2010 VCAA 13 MC
VCE Mathematics examination questions reproduced by permission, VCAA. VCE is a registered trademark of the VCAA. The
VCAA does not endorse or make any warranties regarding this study resource. Current and past VCE exams and related
content can be accessed directly at www.vcaa.vic.edu.au.
3. CORE, FUR1 2012 VCAA 11-12 MC 6. CORE, FUR1 2007 VCAA 11-13 MC
♦ Mean mark 37%.
MARKERS' COMMENT: A
common error was to
incorrectly use the 6 month
and 30 month data points as
the median.
4. CORE, FUR1 2017 VCAA 11 MC
5. CORE, FUR1 2018 VCAA 16 MC
Mean mark 51%.
7. CORE, FUR1 2016 VCAA 14-16 MC 8. CORE, FUR1 2008 VCAA 11-13 MC
♦ Mean mark 39%.
MARKERS' COMMENT: 50%
of students incorrectly read the
three large random fluctuations
in monthly sales as
seasonality, which can't be
determined over only 12
months.
9. CORE, FUR1 2012 VCAA 13 MC 11. CORE, FUR1 2017 VCAA 16 MC
♦ Mean mark 41%.
12. CORE, FUR1 2006 VCAA 11-13 MC
10. CORE, FUR1 2015 VCAA 13 MC
♦ Mean mark 47%.
♦♦ Mean mark 29%.
MARKERS' COMMENT: 59%
of students correctly found the
deseasonalised number but
failed to convert it to the actual.
13. CORE, FUR1 2011 VCAA 12 MC 15. CORE, FUR2 2007 VCAA 2
a.
♦♦♦ Mean mark 10%!
MARKERS' COMMENT: The
key to solving this problem is to b.i.
rearrange the "Seasonal
Index" formula in the formula
sheet.
b.ii.
MARKER'S COMMENT: A
common error was to omit the
negative sign.
14. CORE, FUR1 2014 VCAA 12 MC
♦♦ Mean mark 26%.
MARKER'S COMMENT: A
majority of students appeared
to answer this question by
inspection only which was not
possible. Don't be tricked! b.iii.
16. CORE, FUR2 2009 VCAA 2 17. CORE, FUR2 2010 VCAA 3
a. a.
b.
c. MARKER'S
COMMENT: Locate medians
graphically by inspection.
Explaining a general pattern b.
with more than one trend
proved challenging.
c.
MARKER'S
COMMENT: Students are
expected to use the variables
d. in the diagram rather than just
and .
18. CORE, FUR2 2009 VCAA 4 19. CORE, FUR2 2016 VCAA 4
a. a.
b.
♦ Part (c) was "poorly
answered" (no exact data).
c. MARKER'S COMMENT: A
common error was to say ♦ Mean mark of both Parts (a)
rainfall was above average
b. and (b) was 49%.
monthly rainfall. MARKER'S COMMENT: Use
the accurate table data when
available. Reading values from
the graph will cause
inaccuracies.
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