Starter: Quiz ~ 7 minutes No calculatorUnit 6 - Probability & Probability Distributions Probability Laws Bayes Theorem Permutations & Combinations Basic statistics review Discrete Random Variables Expectation Algebra Binomial Distribution Continuous Random Variables Normal Distribution Valid Comparisons & Informed Decisions‘A casino offers a game where a coin is tossed repeatedly. If the first head occurs on the first throw you get £2, ifthe first head occurs on the second throw you get £4, if the first head is on the third throw you get £8, and so on with the prize doubling each time. How much should the casino charge for this game if they want to make a profit? E. ih o> Would you play this game? a [ee pT leRoll two tetrahedral dice. Find the probability that the difference between the scores is one. The above situation is an example of a random experiment in which the values of the differences between the scores are its associated random variable. The probability that each numerical value of the random variable occurs is the probability distribution of the random variable. a AAA random variable represents in number form the possible outcomes which could occur for some random experiment. A discrete random variable X has possible values 21, <2, 23, Forexample: © the number of houses in your suburb which have a ‘power safety switch’ © the number of new bicycles sold each year by a bicycle store © the number of defective light bulbs in the purchase order of a city store. A continuous random variable X has all possible values in some interval on the number line. For example: ¢ the heights of men could all lie in the interval 50 < x < 250 cm ‘© the volume of water in a rainwater tank during a given month could lie in the interval 0 < x < 100 m’. To determine the value of a discrete random variable we need to count. To determine the value of a continuous random variable we need to measure.Classify the followi Fe neon random variables as continuous or discrete: Discuss in your groups: the quantity of fat in a sausage for a geography test the weight of a seventeen year old student the mark out of 5 the volume of water in a cup of coffee the number of trout in a lake the number of hairs on a cat the length of hairs on a horse the height of a sky-scraper. hits shvww gimkit comew'63 te6da3 150970021d2ba91 _htps:dashboard blooket com/set61790783cSaee20917astesd Data Types (Nominal, Ordinal, Discrete, Continuous) types of data sete byDavidSFor each random variable there is a probability distribution. The probability distribution of a diserete random variable can be given in table form in graphical form ‘¢ in functional form as a probability mass function. It provides us with all possible values of the variable and the probability of the occurrence of each value.The list of all values in the sample space of a random variable, together with their corresponding probabilities, is called the probability distribution or probability mass function of the variable; this information is often best displayed in a table. ‘Draw a table to show the probability mass function of the outcomes ofa For any random variable there is a corresponding probability distribution. The probability that the variable X takes value « is written as P(X =r) or pe. We can also sometimes write a probability distribution as a function P(.r). For example, when tossing two coins, the random variable X could be 0 heads, 1 head, or 2 heads, ie, X =0,1or2. The associated probability distribution is po = }, pi = 3. and p2 = with graph: sf probability 4 Pe HOMEniMCeaRaasiat Tuber of headsRoll two unbiased cubical dice once and note the difference between the scores on the dice. Xx 0 1 2 3 4 5 Px Roll an unbiased tetrahedral die three times and note the number of times a score of “4” is obtained. x 0 1 p at] P. Roll an unbiased tetrahedral die until a score of “4” is rolled and note the number of rolls of the die needed to get this score of “4”. xX 1 2 z] 4 5 n Pyx 0 1 2 3 4 5 P iG: 10 3 Ss a: 2 * 36 36 36 36 36 36 Note that }" p, =1 as required. xe 0 1 2 3 27 27 9 1 Ps a | o« | «| Note: This is an example of a well-known probability model — The Binomial Distribution. It will be studied in detail in a later section. X 1 2 3 4 5 n ® |a |e | @ (QO Note: This is an example of a well-known probability model - The Geometric Distribution. It, too, will be studied in detail.State clearly what the random variable represents. b Find I k i P(X 22). ii PA8|D>6). =‘© a Tae random vara ropes he mb of it hat Sly as i ech me Xa OLLI OS © 1 oor +o1e++046-+008+0, to Enxen eo Solutions eo a nea mw macxcs ARX=2 a Xa3 @ Xad oe X=5) Pu) + Pa) + PO) Pla) PO) +P) + PS) oue+o23 +048 28-046 008+ 002 = 088 =07 Say ion ay oe ito hii eae of te drt =00r ptm ~0ar+04=021 pth tp oat $03 ptm tpi tm =044 + 046=000 Sine pops paps 05, themes 3 i 8a P(00 faulty component) © Pat Least one faulty component) =P(X =0) =P(X > 1) (9) (0.04)(0.96)'°-° 1 — P(none are faulty) = 1— (0.96) = (0.96)"° aa 0.665 aan s]e]7[s]® 2 #[%[s]8[s]8[2]% D>80 D>6) “PD > 6) _ (D> 8) “PD>6) =8+8 -#A die is to be rolled 120 times. On how many occasions would you expect the result to be a “six”? The Expected Value of a Discrete Random Variable The expectation (or expected value) of a random variable is the theoretical equivalent of the mean ofa set of data. It gives a sense of the “average” score of the random variable if the experiment were to be undertaken a large number of times. If the random variable is denoted as X, then its expected value is denoted as E(X) or #. If there are n outcomes in an event and the probability of each outcome in the event occurring is p, then the expectation that the event will occur is np.‘The expectation of a random variable is a value which represents the mean result if the variable were to be repeatedly measured an infinite number of times. Itis a representation of the ‘average’ value of the random variable. KEY POINT 23.2 ‘The expected value of a discrete random variable X is written E(X) and calculated as: E(X)= DxP(X =x) Xx iE 2. 3 4 5 6 P,=P(X =x) L i i i 7 a 6 6 6 6 6 6 XX, ixt axt axh axk sxt oxt 6 6 6 6 6 6 feet een iene Thus, E(X)= Soap, = xb + ax + axb+ ax + sxb + 6xt = 2b =35 BX) z. 66 6n 6 616i 16 Interpret this as: “the long time average of the scores on the die for each roll is 3.5”Roll aie ‘Simulation New Sample Change the theoretical probability of the die to see how that changes the average and expected value. ou oi CC) ODES Oo EB O17 O17 0.17 O1T 0.17 https://www.geogebra.org/m/JHg7VJUk“The expected value of a discrete random variable Xis ‘written E(X) and calculated as: E(X) = YaP(x =x) ‘The random variable X has probability distribution as shown in the table below. Calculate E(X). 3 5 6 a i0 S 1 P(X=x) a al ale |e we sl Apply the formula E(x)= 7 BL nt POThe Variance of a Discrete Random Variable The variance of a random variable is the theoretical equivalent of the variance (the square of the} standard deviation) of a set of data. If.Xis the random variable, then its variance is denoted as VAR(X) or o?. Hence, the standard deviation of a random variable is denoted as o. *in formula booklet Variance Var(X)=E[(X - w)? J=E(X7)-[ECO] Variance of a discrete random variable Var(X) = Sior= gy" P(X =x) = Yo? PX =x) ae ‘This formula is often quoted as ‘the mean of the squares minus the square of the mean ‘The formula booklet also shows the alternative formula, E(X =p), but this is hardly ever used.RE: Example: ‘The random variable X has probability distribution as shown in the table below. Calculate E(X). 1 2 3 4 5 6 mo 2 J. a iE = 10 q i0 q 5 10 Calculate Var(X) for the probability distribution Find the expectation » From above, E(X) = 3.5 Apply the values from the 1 1 1 tot 1 distribution ERE) Oe KEE EX, EAEX LOX Le xs =46 Var(x) =E(x*)—[E(x)] =146-1225=235 Neen A nam he (Useyoureht) Ti pen portend 1 variable statistics Fi é D E Xlist : af] = =—_ Frequency list: b[] 4 148 5 \-ue HUNDEF. 6 sss2a7[_ 235] 7 4. ae aaSuppose X has the probability distribution: Find: SA ney a the ex) © the variance — “9 = FX, WV av O% @ 1C-1)4 (0.3) 4300-4) 4 40.2) 7 at co Yar (K)= EL) -EW) E(x* i WFC 0.104 2 (0-3) 497 Pee L0-2) 2 ¢: Var (x) ASQ = 9, 4\ /Suppose X has the probability distribution: Find: a the mean of X © the variance of X ¢ the standard deviation of X. a E(X) = aap; = 1(0.1) + 2(0.3) + 3(0.4) + 4(0.2) 1100) SPH so jpaOy b E(X?) = Yo a2p; = 1°(0.1) + 27(0.3) + 3°(0.4) + 47(0.2) = 8.1 +, Var(X) = E(X?) — (E(X))? =8.1-2.77 = 0.81 ¢ o = /Var(X) =0.9Suppose X is the number of marsupials entering a park at night. It is suspected that X has a probability distribution of the form P(X =) =a(2?—8x) where X=0,1,2,3,...,8, a Find the constant a, Find the expected number of marsupials entering the park ona given night. ¢ Find the standard deviation of X.Suppose X is the number of marsupials entering a park at night. It is suspected that X has a probability distribution of the form P(X =) =a(2?—8x) where X=0,1,2,3,...,8, a Find the constant a, Find the expected number of marsupials entering the park ona given night. ¢ Find the standard deviation of X.Summary: The population mean of a discrete random variable is often referred to as the ‘expected value of 2” or sometimes as the ‘average value of x in the long run’. In practice, we can define: T = E(X*)-[E(X) FP An alternative formula for the population standard deviation is2 Discrete ==" Work: probability | “Eigine distributions | Cambridge textbook chapter 23 - exercise A and B Winter break 9-12 | Exploration toonit= Geometry || Discrete random variable nomial distribution Jan | question Oxford 11.2: 1DE Oxford 11.4: 111 Kognity 47 Koanity 4.8 Cambridge Ch23 exercise {J - Cambridge Ch23 and ANS 16-19 | Continuous random variable | Normal distribution, Z.distribution Jan (integration with GDC only) POxford 11.5: 114 = Oxford 11.5: 11d ord 11.3 : 11GH = Kognity 49 Kognity 4.12 = Kognity 4.14 ~ Cambridge Ch24C and ANS | f Cambridge Ch24CD and ANS ~ Cambridge Ch24AB and ANS Exploration reading Mcdonalds ties 20-28 Chinese New Years break Jan 30 | Combining random variables | Forms of complex numbers | Geometric properties of Jan-2 | - Oxford 11.3: 11F . complex numbers Feb | [Cambridge stat option 27 [Cambridge Ch15BC and ANS Exercise 27AD and ANSWERS | - Kognity 1.13 6-9 | De Moivre's theorem Roots of complex numbers | Complex number summarised Fed | FOxford 10.3: 100, worked | FOxford 10.3 106F ‘Cambridge Ch15 and ANS anewers = Kogrity 1.14 Txoonity assignment = Kognity 1.14 13.16 | Reviewbutter day Test on trigonometry, | Limits, continuity, convergence Feb probability, complex | - Oxford 4.1: 4ABCD numbers + Pkognity 5.1, 5.12