Natural and Manmade Disasters

What disasters would and could effect our

community?

MANMADE
NATURAL
Types of Natural Disasters

 Earthquakes
 Floods
 Avalanche
 Tsunamis
 Winter Storms
 Wildfires
 Tornadoes
 Hurricanes
 Volcanoes
Overview of Human Population History
 Difficult to assess early human population growth
 Human species ‘began’ approximately 160,000 years ago,
with a few thousand people

 Human population
has grown to over
6.7 billion people in
2008
 Growth rate is
exponential
 The Last 10,000 Years of Human History

 Flat population growth curve until 8,000 years ago

– Agriculture established
– Domestication of animals
– Growth rate increased to 0.036%/year
 By 2,000 years ago, population ~200 million people
– Better shelter, food, water supplies  faster population growth
– Growth rate of 0.056%/year
 By 1750, population
~800 million people
 The Last 10,000 Years of Human History

 By 1750, population ~800 million people

 Public health principles, causes of disease recognized
 Birth rates soared, death rates dropped

 1810: ~1 billion
 1925: ~2 billion
 1960: ~3 billion Insert figure 1.10 here
 1974: ~4 billion
 1987: ~5 billion
 1999: ~6 billion

 By 2028, projected population ~8 billion

Future World Population
 Carrying Capacity

 How many people can Earth support?

o Calculations of carrying capacity vary considerably
o Increasing amounts of food can be produced
o People can migrate from areas of famine or poverty to
less crowded or wealthier areas
o BUT Earth’s
resources are
finite, so solutions
are temporary
India - Disaster Statistics
Natural Disasters from 1980 – 2010 Overview

 No of events:431
 No of people killed:143,039
 Average killed per year:4,614
 No of people affected:1,521,726,127
 Average affected per year:49,087,940
 Economic Damage (US$ X 1,000):48,063,830
 Economic Damage per year (US$ X 1,000):1,550,446
Natural Disaster Occurrence Reported
Average Disaster Per Year
Top 10 Natural Disasters Reported
Top 10 Natural Disasters Reported
Top 10 Natural Disasters Reported
 Disasters are ubiquitous but most large scale disasters
occur in cancer and tropic of Capricorn geographical
region which encompasses most of the developing
nations.
 Due to the geography and topography, India has faced
serious large scale natural disasters like droughts,
cyclones and earthquakes.
 The available statistics also show that the number of
disasters per year is increasing but also the number of
people affected and killed is also rising.
 Major Disasters in Known History of India
S.
NO.
Name of Event Year Fatalities
1. Bengal Earthquake 1737 300,000
2. Bengal Cyclone 1864 60,000
The Great Famine of Southern
3. 1876-1878 5.5 million
India
4. Maharashtra Cyclone 1882 100,000
5. The Great Indian famine 1896-1897 1.25 million to 10 million
6. Kangra earthquake 1905 20,000
7. Bihar Earthquake 1934 6,000
8. Bengal Cyclone 1970 500,000 (include Pakistan & Bangladesh)
9. Drought 1972 200 million people affected
10. Andhra Pradesh Cyclone 1977 10,000
11. Latur Earthquake 1993 7,928 death and 30,000 injured
12. Orissa Super Cyclone 1999 10,000
13. Gujarat Earthquake 2001 25,000
14. Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004 10,749 deaths 5,640 persons missing
15. Kashmir Earthquake 2005 86000 deaths (include Kashmir & Pakistan)
CHARACTERISTICS OF NATURAL DISASTERS

INITIAL LETHALITY
LOW HIGH LOW SUDDEN
•Earthquakes

SCOPE
•Cyclones
•Floods
•Famine
HIGH LOW HIGH SLOW
 The last century has added a new ecological dimension to
the definition of a disaster.
 We then have newer man made disasters on our hands
which include chemical Disasters like Bhopal Gas
Tragedy of 1984, oil spills, air water and soil pollution.
 Developing countries have been facing the brunt more
than the developed ones because they have less physical
and financial resources.
 India as the second largest populated country with 1.2
billion population has a large share of all types of
disasters.
 It is virtually impossible to prevent most disaster.
 Nevertheless, we can forestall or alleviate many of their
worst effect by anticipating them and by being prepared.
 The greatest number of disasters occur in those countries
that are already most adversely affected by ill-health and
poor economic conditions.
 Disasters disrupt progress and destroy the outcome of
developmental efforts over several years, often
pushing nations in quest for progress back by several
decades.
 Thus, efficient reduction of disaster risks, rather than
mere response to their occurrence, has in recent
times, received increased attention both within India
and abroad.
 With a vision to build a safe and disaster resilient
India, the Government has adopted a holistic,
proactive, multi-hazard oriented and technology driven
strategy by promoting a culture of prevention,
mitigation, preparedness and response.
 Natural disasters
 Earthquake: India is having a high risk towards
Earthquakes. More than 58 per cent of India’s land area
is under threat of moderate to severe seismic hazard.
 During the last 20 years, India has experienced 10 major
earthquakes that have resulted in more than 35,000
deaths.
 Of the earthquake-prone areas, 12% is prone to very
severe earthquakes, 18% to severe earthquakes and
25% to damageable earthquakes.
 The biggest quakes occur in the Andaman and Nicobar
Islands, Kutch, Himachal and the North-East. The
Himalayan regions are particularly prone to earthquakes.
Earthquake in Gujarat
Earthquake in Gujarat
Earthquake in Gujarat
Floods
 About 30 million people are affected annually. Floods in the
Indo–Gangetic–Brahmaputra plains are an annual feature.
 On an average, a few hundred lives are lost, millions are
rendered homeless and several hectares of crops are damaged
every year.
 Nearly 75% of the total rainfall occurs over a short monsoon
season (June – September). 40 million hectares, or 12% of
Indian land, is considered prone to floods.
 Floods are a perennial phenomenon in at least 5 states -
Assam, Bihar, Orissa , Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal.
 On account of climate change, floods have also occurred in
recent years in areas that are normally not flood prone.
 In 2006, drought prone parts of Rajasthan experienced floods.
 Droughts
 Drought is another recurrent phenomenon which results in
widespread adverse impact on vulnerable people’s
livelihoods and young children’s nutrition status.
 About 50 million people are affected annually by drought.
Of approximately 90 million hectares of rain-fed areas,
about 40 million hectares are prone to scanty or no rain.
 Although a slow onset emergency, and to an extent
predictable emergency, drought has caused severe
suffering in the affected areas in recent years, including
effects on poverty, hunger, and unemployment.
Cyclones
 About 8% of the land is vulnerable to cyclones of which coastal
areas experience two or three tropical cyclones of varying
intensity each year.
 Cyclonic activities on the east coast are more severe than on
the west coast.
 The Indian continent is considered to be the worst cyclone-
affected part of the world, as a result of low-depth ocean bed
topography and coastal configuration.
 The principal threat from a cyclone are in the form of gales and
strong winds; torrential rain and high tidal waves/storm surges.
 More cyclones occur in the Bay of Bengal than in the Arabian
Sea and the ratio is approximately 4:1.
 An analysis of the frequency of cyclones on the east and west
coasts of India.
 Landslide
 In the hilly terrain of India including the Himalayas and North
East India, landslides have been a major and widely spread
natural disasters that often strike life and property and
occupy a position of major concern.
 One of the worst tragedies took place at Malpa
Uttarkhand (UP) on 11th and 17th August 1998 when nearly
380 people were killed when massive landslides washed
away the entire village.
 Avalanche

 An Avalanche is a movement of snow, ice and rock down a

mountainside. Avalanches happen very suddenly and can
move as fast as a racing car up to 124mph.Avalanche are
river like speedy flow of snow or ice descending from the
mountain tops.
 Avalanches are very damaging and cause huge loss to life
and property.
 In Himalayas, avalanches are common
 Avalanches can be caused by
snow melting quickly
snow freezing, melting then freezing again
someone skiing a
loud noise or an earth tremor
 Tsunami

 Form as a result of earthquakes, volcanoes, or

landsides under the ocean
 Waves grow taller as they reach the coast
 Four out of Five occur in the Ring of Fire
 Over 200,000 people killed in the 26/12/05 Indian
Ocean tsunami
Tsunami affected Indian territory
TSUNAMI
TSUNAMI
TSUNAMI
 Tornadoes

 Rotating, funnel-shaped clouds from powerful

thunderstorms
 Winds up to 300 MPH capable of producing major
damage
 More occur in the United States than anywhere else in
the world; they occur in every state in America.
Effects of Tornadoes in Alabama

Tuscaloosa County: December 16, 2000

Hurricanes

 Massive severe storms occurring in

the tropics
 Winds greater than 75 MPH
 Clouds & winds spin around the eye
 Produce heavy rains, high winds,
large waves, and spin-off tornadoes
Effects of Hurricanes

Hurricane Frederick - 1979 Hurricane Ivan 2005

 Volcanoes

 More than 500 active volcanoes in

the world; over half in the Ring of
Fire
 Pressure builds below the earth’s
surface producing eruptions of
lava, rock, and volcanic gases
Effects of Tsunamis

Indian Ocean Tsunami –

December 26, 2005
Winter Storms
 May include snow, ice storms, sleet,
freezing rain, and extremely cold
temperatures
 Most deaths occur in automobiles
 Storms may cause widespread power
outages
Wildfires

 Fires can burn out of control in

areas of forest or bush land. Fires
are caused by lightning, sparks of
electricity or careless people. Wind
may blow a bushfire to areas where
people live.
 Occur in forests, grasslands, and
wooded areas
 Most common causes: lightning and
human accidents
 Burn more than 4 million acres in
the U.S. each year
MAN MADE DISASTERS
TYPES OF MAN MADE DISASTERS

 NUCLEAR ACCIDENTS
 CHEMICHAL DISASTERS
 BIOLOGICAL DISASTERS
 GLOBAL WARMING
 TERRORIST ATTACKS
 POLLUTION
 One of the scariest things about nuclear power is when something
goes wrong and an accident occurs. Radiation is released into the
environment and people get hurt
 Two of the most famous nuclear accidents occurred at the Three
Mile Island reactor 2 in the United States and the Chernobyl
reactor 4 in the former Soviet Union. In this text we will discuss
these two disasters, along with correcting a few common
misconceptions about nuclear accidents.
 Nuclear weapons are thus, far more destructive and harmful to
the society than any other weapon. Many countries in the world
have developed nuclear energy. The developed countries
reiterate that nuclear energy will be used only for PEACEFUL
PURPOSES. We can only hope this to be true, lest we face
another Hiroshima and Nagasaki situation.
NUCLEAR DISASTERS
 Nuclear radiation keeps on showing its effect for a
considerable period of time even after its explosion.
 In case of a nuclear explosion, nothing much can be
done. Some precautions however may be taken.
 We should stay inside keeping doors and windows shut
to protect ourselves against nuclear radiation.
 Nuclear activity may affect our health and cause nausea,
giddiness, vomiting etc., and for that medical help should
be taken
Chemical disasters
 By their nature, the manufacture, storage, and transport of
chemicals are accidents waiting to happen. Chemicals can
be corrosive, toxic, and they may react, often explosively.
The impacts of chemical accidents can be deadly, for both
human being-environment.
 Chemical weapons are also weapons of mass destruction.
Sometimes handling of hazardous chemicals in an
irresponsible way can cause much destruction.
 Chemical disasters are also caused by industrial
accidents. The poisonous gases spread in the atmosphere
and the people who inhale the same air face dangerous
consequences
Chemical disasters
 Those industries, which use hazardous chemicals or
produce such chemicals, should have contingency
action plan to help people if such a disaster takes
place.
 Such industries should have timely warning systems
so that people can immediately take safety
measures such as locking their houses and taking
he family and animals away to a safe place.
 Stringent safety measures and checkups in the
factory and critical analysis of the working condition
of the factory will help to take timely measures to
check any disaster
Biological disasters
 Biological disaster spreads through the organism that is
developed in the form of BACTERIA or MICROBES.
Biological agent spread fast in the environment and then
makes an attack on the human beings. The people inhale
these microbes. When these microbes find themselves a
host body, they start affecting the immune systems of the
body. Microbes’ also entire human body through open
wounds or cuts.
 The attack of these microbes is generally slow but once they
are spread in the body, it becomes different to control them.
It takes the life of the affected persons. Many a time, it
becomes difficult to diagnose the illness caused by these
microbes and it proves to be fatal.
 Global warming
 Global warming is the rise in the average temperature of Earth's
atmosphere and oceans since the late 19th century and its
projected continuation. Since the early 20th century, Earth's
mean surface temperature has increased by about 0.8
°C (1.4 °F), with about two-thirds of the increase occurring since
1980.
 Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and scientists are
more than 90% certain that it is primarily caused by increasing
concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by human
activities such as the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation.
 The effects of an increase in global temperature include arise in
sea levels and a change in the amount and pattern
of precipitation, as well a probable expansion of subtropical
deserts.
Global warming
 Warming is expected to be strongest in the Arctic and
would be associated with the continuing retreat of
glaciers, permafrost and sea ice.
 Other likely effects of the warming include a more
frequent occurrence of extreme-weather events
including heat waves, droughts and heavy rainfall, ocean
acidification and species extinctions due to shifting
temperature regimes.
 Effects significant to humans include the threat to food
security from decreasing crop yields and the loss of
habit from industrialized nations
 TERRORIST ATTACKS
 terrorist attack - a surprise attack involving the deliberate
use of violence against civilians in the hope of attaining
political or religious aims
 terrorist act can be defined as the calculated use of violence
(or the threat of violence) against civilians in order to attain
goals that are political or religious or ideological in nature;
this is done through intimidation or coercion or instilling fear
 Worst terrorist attacks
 Mumbai terrorist attack is also referred to as November 26 or 26/11 and
this terrorist attack targeted India’s largest city Mumbai. It was actually a
series of 10 coordinated shooting and bombing attacks across Mumbai
by Islamic terrorists who are believed to have come from Pakistani
Seawaters and backed by ISI, Pakistani secret service agency. It affected
the Indo-Pak relation immensely and the bilateral relations were
debilitated which have never returned to normalcy since
 There was a series of coordinated attacks by Al-Qaeda on America on
September 11, 2001. Four commercial passenger jet airliners were
hijacked by 19 Al-Qaeda members and they intentionally steered two of
the planes towards the Twin Towers of World Trade Center, consequently
bringing them down to earth.
 The third airliner was crashed into The Pentagon in Virginia, just outside
Washington, D.C. and the fourth one crashed into a field near Shanksville
in rural Pennsylvania. There were no survivors from any of the flights.
This event triggered many changes in the world as a whole and was the
beginning of a very horrendous film for the humans across the globe
because humans had to pay a very heavy price of this terrorist attack and
this fact is conspicuous from the current state of affairs
 Pollution
 Pollution is the introduction of contaminants into the
natural environment that cause adverse
change.[1] Pollution can take the form of chemical
substances or energy such as noise, heat or
light. Pollutants, the components of pollution, can be
either foreign substances/energies or naturally occurring
contaminants. Pollution is often classed as point
source or nonpoint source pollution. The Blacksmith
Institute issues an annual list of the world's worst
polluted places. In the 2007 issues the ten top
nominees are located in
Azerbaijan, China, India, Peru, Russia, Ukraine
and Zambia.
 FORMS OF POLLUTION
The major forms of pollution are listed below along with the
particular contaminant relevant to each of them:
• Air pollution:- the release of chemicals and particulates into the
atmosphere. Common gaseous pollutants include carbon
monoxide, sulfur dioxide, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and nitrogen
oxides produced by industry and motor vehicles.
Photochemical ozone and smog are created as nitrogen oxides
and hydrocarbons react to sunlight. Particulate matter, or fine dust is
characterized by their micro meter size PM10 to PM2.5.
• Light pollution:- includes light trespass, over-
illumination and astronomical interference.
• Littering:- the criminal throwing of inappropriate man-made objects, un
removed, on to public and private properties.
• Noise pollution:- which encompasses roadway noise, aircraft
noise, industrial noise as well as high-intensity sonar.
FORMS OF POLLUTION
• Soil contamination occurs when chemicals are released by spill or
underground leakage. Among the most significant soil contaminants are
hydrocarbons, heavy metals, herbicides, pesticides and chlorinated
hydrocarbons.
• Radioactive contamination, resulting from 20th century activities in atomic
physics, such as nuclear power generation and nuclear weapons research,
manufacture and deployment.
• Thermal pollution, is a temperature change in natural water bodies caused
by human influence, such as use of water as coolant in a power plant.
• Visual pollution, which can refer to the presence of overhead power lines,
motorway billboards, scarred landforms (as from strip mining), open storage
of trash, municipal solid waste or space debris.
• Water pollution, by the discharge of wastewater from commercial
and industrial waste (intentionally or through spills) into surface waters;
discharges of untreated domestic sewage, and chemical contaminants, such
as chlorine, from treated sewage; release of waste and contaminants into
surface runoff flowing to surface waters (including urban runoff and
agricultural runoff, which may contain chemical fertilizers and pesticides);
waste disposal and leaching into groundwater; eutrophication and
littering.
 Man-made Environmental
Disasters
Can knowledge of Probabilistic methods minimize them?
The Relevance
 Bhopal Disaster had its 20th Anniversary
 A lot of Man-made disasters are caused by ‘errors’
 Uncertainty analyses/ Error Analysis/ Probabilistic
Methods/Risk Management can all help to reduce the
chance
 We’ll talk about one Man-made Environmental Disasters:
Bhopal Disaster (India)
Bhopal Disaster
 Gas Leak on December 3, 1984 – MIC (Methyl Iso
Cyanate)
 8000 people died, 50,000 injured
 Gas leaked from a Union Carbide Plant at night

Main effect: Pulmonary Edema, skin

and eye damage (total blindness)
Secondary effect: Bronchitis, Bronchial
pneumonia

People fled from the poison

A Bhopal Victim
gas in the middle of the
night
How it Happened
 In the middle of the night. People fast asleep (many on
the streets)
 40 tonnes of MIC leaked from Union Carbide Plant

The Plant

Union Carbide still maintains

‘Sabotage’ as the cause:
‘Someone’ put water in the boiler to
Source: BBC
trigger a set of reactions
Here’s One Story
 Bhopal station was filling with panicking passengers
fleeing the fumes
 Station Manager Mr. Dastagir was sensing something
wrong (note: no one yet knew what was going on)
 The next train was scheduled to depart 20 minutes later
 He ordered the train to leave immediately (early)
 Incoming trains were all diverted
 It was Catch 22 situation. Uncontaminated passengers
incoming to Bhopal could not be put at risk.
 Yet, those in Bhopal wanted to flee the fumes boarding
as many trains.
Cont’d.
 The station had instead become a scene of misery and
death all around.

 Mr. Dastagir’s action saved many lives. Unfortunately

he’s a forgotten Hero (died a year spending most of his
remaining life in hospitals