PROBABILITY

RANDOM EXPERIMENT
A random experiment is an experiment on which
1. The experiment can be repeated any number of times under identical conditions.
2. All possible outcomes of the experiment are known in advance and
3. The actual outcome in a particular case is not known in advance.
E.g. Tossing a coin is an experiment which has only two possible outcomes Head (H) and Tail (T).

ELEMENTARY EVENT
An outcome of a random experiment is called an elementary event or simple event.
e.g. Rolling of an unbiased dice is a random experiment. The possible outcomes in this experiment are 1, 2,
3, 4, 5 and 6. (i.e. we denote the faces of the die with the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6).
Then the outcomes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 are called elementary events of this random experiment.

SAMPLE SPACE
The set of all possible outcomes of a random experiments is called the sample space associated with the
experiment. Sample space of random experiment is denoted with S. The elements in S are also called
sample point.
e.g. If a die is thrown once the sample space for out come is S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Hence 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 are
called sample points and elementary events.

Illustration 1: Write the sample space of the following random experiment.

“A coin and a dice thrown”
Solution: S = {(T, 1), (T, 2), (T, 3), (T, 4), (T, 5), (T, 6), (H, 1), (H, 2), (H, 3), (H, 4), (H, 5), (H, 6)}

EVENT
An event is subset of the sample space. i.e. a collection of elementary events is called an event.
e.g. When we throw a die, the events E1: Occurrence of an even number on the upper most face of the die
and E2: an odd number. i.e. E1 = {2, 4, 6}; E2 = {1, 3, 5} (in this experiment sample space = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

NOTE:
1. The empty set  and S, being subsets of S are events called impossible event and certain (or sure) event
respectively.
E.g. While tossing the unbiased coin if it is not fallen drawn is an impossible event and it is fallen down is
certain event.

2. The complement of the event E denoted by Ec is the event given by Ec = S  E which is called the
complementary event of E.
E.g. When we throw a die, the event E: occurrence of an even number then event Ec: occurrence of an
odd number.

MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

Two or more events are said to be mutually exclusive if the occurrence of one event prevents the occurrence
of any of the remaining events. The events E1, E2, E3, …Ek. Mutually exclusive events of Ei  Ej =  for ij,
1  I, j  k.

NOTE:
1. If E1, E2 are mutually exclusive events then E1  E2 = 
2. If E1, E2, E3 ……… En are mutually exclusive events.
Then E1  E2  E3  …….  En = .

i.e.

3. If E1  E2   then E1, E2 are not mutually exclusive events.

e.g. In this experiment of throwing a pair of dice, consider the events,
E1 : a sum 7( of numbers on the uppermost faces of the dice occurs)
E2 : a sum of 6 occurs.
E3 : a sum of 5 occurs.
E4 : Sum  7 occurs.
Then events E1, E2, E3 are mutually exclusive and while E1 and E4 are not mutually exclusive.

EQUALLY LIKELY
Two or more events are said to be equally likely if there is no reason to expect one of them in preference to
the others. E.g. If a coin is tossed, the occurrence of a head (H) of occurrence of a tail (T) are equally likely.

EXHAUSTIVE EVENTS
Two or more events are said to be exhaustive if the performance of the experiment always results in the
occurrence of atleast one of them i.e. the events E1, E2, E3 ……… Ek are said to be exhaustive if E1  E2

……..  Ek = S ( ).

E.g. In the experiment “rolling of a dice” the events

E1: Occurrence of an even number
E2: Occurrence of a prime number.
E3: Occurrence of one exhaustive but not mutually exclusive.

PROBABILITY
If there are n exhaustive, mutually exclusive and equally likely outcomes of an experiment and n of them are
favourable to an event E. Then the mathematical probability of E is defined as

= .... (1)

Since the number of results or outcomes not favourable to this event is nm, the probability of
nonoccurrence of the event E, denoted by .

= =

= (from (i))

It is clear from the definition that 0  P(E)  1 for any event E.

Illustration 2: Two fair dice are rolled. What is the probability that the sum on the faces of the two dice is
10.
Solution: The sample space of the experiment is
S = {(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), ………. (1, 6), (2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3),…. (2, 0), ……… (6, 1), (6, 2), …..
(6, 6)}
n(S) = 36.
 Event E: Getting a total score 10.
= {(4, 6), (5, 5), (6, 4)}
n(E) = 3

Illustration 3: A box contains 3 black and 5 white balls. If a ball is drawn at random, what is the probability
that it is (i) black (ii) white?
Solution: n(S) = 8C1 = 8
Event B: getting black ball
n(B) = 3C1 = 3.
Event W: Getting white ball
n(W) = 5C1 = 5.

P(B) =

P(W) =

ODDS IN FAVOUR AND ODDS AGAINST AN EVENT

Odds in favour of an event E is the ratio of P(E) : .
Odds against an event E is the ratio of .

Illustration 4: Probability of an event is find odds against the event.

Solution: ; .

 Odds against the event is

  1 : 2.

PROBABILITY FUNCTION
Suppose S is the sample space of a random experiment EP and S is finite. Then a functions P: P(S)  R
satisfying the following axioms is called probability function.
(i) P(E)  0  E  P(S) (positive axiom)
(ii) P(S) = 1 (completeness axiom)
(iii) If E1, E2  P(S) and E1  E2 =  then P(E1  E2) = P(E1) + P(E2) (union axioms)
for each E  P(S), the number P(E) is called the “Probability of the event E”. In this case E = {a} is singleton.
We write P(a) instead of .

NOTE: In case S is countable finite (iii) in the above the definition has to be replaced by (iii) If {En} is a

sequence of mutually exclusive events then

Illustration 5: Let S = {1, 2, 3, 4}, P(1)=0.1, P(2) = 0.1, P(3) = 0.4, P(4) = x.

Define P(A) = for any subset A of S. If P is a probability function. Then find the value

of x.
Solution: Given P is a probability function.
 P(S) = 1
 

 P(1) + P(2) + P(3) + P(4) = 1

 0.1 + 0.1 + 0.4 + x = 1
 0.6 + x = 1
 x = 1  0.6 = 0.4.

NOTE: Suppose S is the sample space of random experiment. Let P be probability function of P(S). Then
(i) P() = 0.
(ii) If E1  E2 then P(E2  E1) = P(E2)  P(E1)
(iii) If E1  E2 then P(E1)  P(E2)

ADDITION THEOREM ON PROBABILITY

If E1, E2 are any two events of a random experiment. Then
P(E1  E2) = P(E1) + P(E2)  P(E1  E2).

Proof: Case I: E1  E2 = .
 P(E1  E2) = 0.
If E1  E2 = 
 P(E1  E2) = P(E1) + P(E2)
= P(E1) + P(E2)  0.
= P(E1) + P(E2)  P(E1  E2).
Case II: E1  E2  
E1  E2 = E1  (E2  E1) and E1  (E2  E1) = 
According to union axiom
P(E1  E2) = P(E1  (E2  E1) = P(E1) + P(E2  E1) . . . . (i)
E2  E1 = E2  (E1  E2) and E1  E2  E2.
 P(E2  E1) = P(E2  (E1 E2)
= P(E2)  P(E1  E2) . . . . (ii)
From (i) and (ii)
P(E1  E2) = P(E1) + P(E2)  P(E1  E2)

NOTE: If A, B, C are three events then

P(ABC) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C)  P(AB)  P(BC)  P(CA) + P(ABC).

Illustration 6: What is the probability of drawing an ace or a spade a well shuffled pack of 52 cards.
Solution: n(S) = 52C1 = 52.
Event E1 : Drawing a spade  n(E1) = 13C1 = 13.
Event E2 : Drawing an ace  n(E2) = 4C1 = 4.
Event E1E2: Drawing a spade and an ace  n  (E1  E2) = 1.
Event E1E2: Drawing a spade or ace.
 P(E) = , P(E2) = , P(E1E2) =

 P(E1  E2) = P(E1) + P(E2)  P(E1  E2)

= =

Illustration 8: Suppose A and B are events with P(A) = 0.5; P(B) = 0.4 and P(AB) = 0.3. Find the
probability that
(i) A does not occur
 (ii) Either A or B occur.
(iii) Neither A nor B occur.
Solution: Given P(A) = 0.5, P(B) = 0.4; P(AB) = 0.3.
(i) A does not occur mean Ac.
P(Ac) = 1  P(A) = 1  0.5 = 0.5
(ii) Either A or B occur means A  B.
 P(AB) = P(A)+P(B)  P(AB) = 0.5 + 0.4  0.3 = 0.6
(iii) Neither A nor B occurs means (AB)c
 P(AB)c = 1  P(AB) = 1  0.6 = 0.4.

Illustration 9: A, B, C are 3 news papers from a city 20% of the population read A, 16% read B, 14% read C
8% both A and B, 5% both A and C, 4% both B and C and 2% all the three. Find the
percentage of the population who read atleast one news paper.

Solution: We have P(A) = , P(B) = , P(C) =

, P(BC) = , P(AC) =

 P(ABC) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C)  P(AB)  P(BC)  P(CA) + P(ABC).

=

= = = 35%

Exercise 1.
(i) (a) Find the probability that nonleap year contains (i) 53 Sundays (ii) 52 Sundays only.
(b) What is probability that leap year will contain 53 Sundays?
(ii) If 6 cards are drawn at random from a pack of cards, then find the probability to get 3 red and 3 black
cards.
(iii) Suppose S = {1, 2, 3, 4} is the sample space of a random experiment. Suppose P(1) = x, P(2) = 2x,
P(3) = 3x and P(4) = 4x, where P is a probability function. Find x.
(iv) In a box containing 15 bulbs, 5 are defective. If 5 bulbs are selected at random from the box find the
probability of the event, that (a) none of them is defective (b) only one them is defective (c) atleast
one of them is defective.
(v) The probability for a contractor to get a road contract is 2/3 and to get a building contract is 5/9. The
probability to get atleast one contract is 4/5. Find the probability that he gets both the contracts.

CONDITIONAL EVENT
Suppose A and B are two events of a random experiment then the event of happening B after the happening
of A” is called a “conditional event and is denoted by B/A. Similalry A/B states for the event happening of A
after the happening of B.

Note: is called the conditional probability of B after the happening of A i.e. probability of B given A. It

is defined by when P(A) > 0.

Illustration 10: In a class 25% of the students failed in Mathematics, 30% failed in Chemistry and 15% failed
in both Mathematics and Chemistry. A student is selected at random failed in Mathematics.
What is the probability that he failed in Chemistry.

Solution: Probability that the student failed in Mathematics,

Probability that the student failed in Chemistry

Probability that the student failed in both P(CM) = .

Probability that he failed in Chemistry given that he failed in Mathematics

= .

INDEPENDENT EVENTS
Two or more events are said to be independent if the happening or nonhappening of any one of the event
does not effect the probability of happening or nonhappening of any other event.
i.e. Two events A and B are independent if P(AB) = P(A).P(B).
e.g. When a card is drawn from a pack of well shuffled cards and replaced before drawing the second
card. The result of second draw is independent of the first one. However, if the first card is not replaced, the
second draw is dependent of the first one.

NOTE: 1. If A and B are independent then P(A/B) = P(A).P(B/A)

2. If A and B are independent then Ac and Bc are also independent events.

Illustration 11: A bag contains 7 green, 4 white and 5 red balls. If four balls are drawn one by one with
replacement. What is the probability that none is red?
Solution: Total number of balls in a bag = 7 + 4 + 5 = 16.
Number of nonred balls = 7 + 4 = 11.
Probability of getting a nonred ball in a single draw is = .

Since all the four draws are independent.

 Required probability = .

Illustration 12: If events A and B are given to independent. Find P(B) if it is given that P(A) = 0.25 and
P(AB) = 0.60.
Solution: Given P(A) = 0.25; P(AB) = 0.60
Let P(B) = x.
 P(AB) = P(A) + P(B)  P(AB).
 P(AB) = P(A) + P(B)  P(A). P(B). [ A and B are independent events]
 0.60 = 0.25 + x  0.25x  0.60  0.25 = 0.75x
 0.35 = 0.75 x 

MULTIPLICATION THEOREM ON CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

If A and B are two events of a random experiment P(A) > 0, P(B) > 0 then
P(AB) = P(A).P(B/A) = P(B).P(A/B).
Illustration 13: Two dice are thrown simultaneously. Find the conditional probability that one die shows four
given that sum of the numbers on both dice is 7.
Solution: let A be the event that one die shows 4 and B be event that sum of the digits is 7. Clearly
n(S) = 36.

 and

We have to find

FORMULAE AND CONCEPTS AT A GLANCE

1. P() = 0, where P is a probability function.

2. E1, E2 are two events of a sample space S.

(i) E1  E2  P(E2  E1) = P(E2)  P(E1), P(E1)  P(E2)
(ii) P(E1  E2) + P(E1  ) = P(E1)

3. If E is an event of S, then 0  P(E)  1.

4. Notation
(a) A, B are events of a sample space S
(i) B occurs whenever A occurs AB

(ii) Neither A nor B occurs :

(iii) A occurs and B dos not occur : A or A  B or A  (A  B)

(iv) Exactly one of A and B occurs : or

(v) Not more than one of A or B occurs

where AB = (AB)  (A  B)

(b) A, B, C are events of a sample space S,
(i) Among them only A occurs :

(ii) Both A and B occur and c does not occur

(iii) All three of A, B, C occur : ABC

(iv) At least one of A, B, c occurs : ABC
(v) None of A, B, C occurs : .

5. If E is an event of a sample space S, then

(i) the odds in favour of E are defined as P(E) : and

 (ii) the odds against E are defined as : P(E).

If the odds in favour of E are a : b, then ,

6. Additional theorem on probability.

If S is a sample space, and E1, E2 are any events in S then
P(E1 or E2) = P(E1  E2) = P(E1) + P(E2)  P(E1  E2)
If E1  E2 = , then P(E1  E2) = P(E1) + P(E2)
7. If A, B, C are any three events, then
P(ABC) = P(A)+P(B)+P(C)P(C)P(AB)P(BC)P(CA)+P(ABC)
8. Conditional Event: E1, E2 are events of a sample space S and if E2 occurs after the occurrence of E1,
then the event of occurrence of E2 after the event E1, is called conditional event of E2 given E1. It is

denoted by .

9. Conditional probability: E1 and E2 are two events in a sample space S and P(E1)  0. The probability
of E2, after the event E1 has occurred, is called the conditional probability of the event of E2 given E1.

It is denoted by and we define = .

10. If E1 and E2 are independent, then

(i) and are independent

(ii) and E2 are independent.

(iii) E1 and are independent.

11. Three events E1, E2, E3 are mutually independent or simply independent if
(i) P(E1E2) = P(E1).P(E2), P(E2E3) = P(E2).P(E3), P(E1E3) = P(E1).P(E3)
(ii) P(E1E2E3) = P(E1).P(E2).P(E3).
 SOLVED PROBLEMS

Subjective

Prob 1. A room has 3 lamps. From a collections of 10 light bulbs of which 6 are not good. A person select
5 at random and puts them in a socket. Find the probability that he will have light.

Sol: There are 10 bulbs in all and of there 3 can be selected is ways

 n(S) = 120
Let A be the event of getting light. Then denotes the event of having no light. Now 6 bulbs are
not good. Hence the number of ways in which all not good bulbs are chosen are

= 20

 P(A) = 1  .

Prob 2. The probability that a contractor will get a plumbing contract is 2/3 and the probability that he will not
get an electric contract is 5/9. If the probability of getting atleast one contract is 4/5. what is the
probability that he will get both.
Sol: Let A be the event that the contractor will get the plumbing contract and B, that he will get the
electric contract.
 P(A) = 2/3, P(B) = 4/5 and P(AB) = 4/5,
P(B) = 1 P(Bc) =

 P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B)  P(A  B) =

Prob 3. A bag contains 6 white and 9 black balls. Four balls drawn at a time. Find the probability for the
first draw to give four white and second draw to give four black balls in each of the following cases.
(i) The balls are replaced before the second drawn.
(ii) The balls are not replaced before the second drawn.
Sol: No. of white balls = 6
NO. of black balls = 9
Total no. of balls = 15.
Event A: Getting 4 white balls in first draw.
Event B: Getting 4 black balls is second draw.
Event A  B: Getting 4 white balls in first drawn and getting 4 black balls in second drawn.
(i) When the balls are replaced before the second drawn

P(B) =

Here A and B are independent events

 P(A  B) = P(A).P(B) =
 (ii) When the balls are not replaced before second drawn

(since the balls are not been replaced the bag contains 2 white and 9 black balls)

 P(A  B) = P(A) P(B/A) =

Prob 4. (i) Two fair dice are rolled what is the probability that the sum on the faces of the two deice is 10?
(ii) If one ticket is randomly selected from tickets numbered 1 to 30, then find the probability that the
number on the ticket is a multiple of 3 or 5.

Sol: Number of elements in sample space = n(S) = 36.

Even E1: Getting sum on two dices is 6.
= {(6, 4), (5, 5), (4, 6)}
 n(E1) = 3.

 P(E1) = = =

(ii) No of elements in sample space = n(S) =

A: Getting number multiple of 3
= {(3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, 24, 27, 30}
n(A) = 10
B: Getting number multiple of 5
= {5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30}
n(B) = 6
A  B = {15, 30}
N(A  B) = 2
; ;

Event A  B : Getting multiple of 3 or 5.

P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B)  P(A  B)
=

Prob 5. If A and B are independent events with P(A) = 0.2, P(B) = 0.5, find (i) P(A/B) (ii) P(B/A) (iii) P(A B)
(iv) P(AB).
Sol: Given P(A) = 0.2, P(B) = 0.5
We have A and B are independent events
(i) P(A/B) = P(A) = 0.2
(ii) P(B/A) = P(B) = 0.5
(iii) P(A  B) = P(A).P(B) = 0.2  0.5 = 0.1
(iv) P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B)  P(A  B) = 0.2 + 0.5  0.1 = 0.6