Gold As A Strategic Asset - 2024 Edition
Gold As A Strategic Asset - 2024 Edition
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Contents
What makes gold a strategic asset? 01
Beating inflation, combating deflation 03
Store of value 03
Portfolio impact 08
Risk/reward profile 08
Conclusion12
Gold is a highly liquid asset, which is no one’s liability, Combined, these characteristics make gold a clear
carries no credit risk, and is scarce, historically complement to stocks and bonds and a welcome
preserving its value over time. It also benefits from addition to broad-based portfolios.
diverse sources of demand: as an investment, a
reserve asset, gold jewellery, and a technology Moreover, the shift towards a greater integration
component. These attributes mean gold can enhance of environmental, social and governance (ESG)
a portfolio in three key ways: objectives within investment strategies has
important implications and we believe gold can play
Delivering long-term returns (p.2)
a role in supporting these. Gold – from established
Improving diversification (p.5) investment sources – should be recognised as an
asset that is responsibly produced and delivered from
Providing liquidity (p.7)
a supply chain that adheres to high ESG standards.
Gold also has a potential role to play in reducing
investor exposure to climate-related risks.
Gold's key attributes Chart 1: Gold has performed well over the past 3,
5, 10 and 20 years, despite the strong performance
A long-term source of return of risk assets
Investors have long considered gold a beneficial Annualised return over the past 3, 5, 10 and 20 years*
asset during periods of uncertainty. Yet, historically,
CAGR, %
it has generated long-term positive returns in both
good and bad economic times. Its diverse sources 20%
of demand give gold a particular resilience and the
15%
potential to deliver solid returns in various market
conditions (Figure 1). Gold is, on the one hand, 10%
often used as an investment to protect and enhance
wealth over the long term, but on the other hand it is 5%
also a consumer good, via jewellery and technology
0%
demand. During periods of economic uncertainty,
it is the counter-cyclical investment demand that -5%
drives the gold price up. During periods of economic
expansion, the pro-cyclical consumer demand -10%
20yr 10yr 5yr 3yr
supports its performance. Combined, these factors
give gold the ability to provide stability under a range US cash EM stocks
of economic environments. US Treasuries Commodities
Global stocks Gold
Looking back over half a century, the price of gold in
US stocks
US dollars has increased by nearly 8% per year since
1971 when the US gold standard collapsed. Over *Returns from 31 December 2003 to 31 December 2023
this period, gold’s long-term return is comparable
Source: Bloomberg, ICE Benchmark Administration, World Gold Council
to equities and higher than bonds. Gold has also
outperformed many other major asset classes over
the past 3, 5, 10 and 20 years (Chart 1).
*Based on 10-year average annual net demand estimates ending in 2023. Includes: jewellery and technology net of recycling, in addition to bars & coins, ETFs and central
bank demand which are historically reported on a net basis. It excludes over-the-counter demand, owing to limitations in data availability.
** Net jewellery and technology demand computed assuming 90% of annual recycling comes from jewellery and 10% from technology.
25
Moreover, the diversity of its sources of demand help
20
to make gold a less volatile asset than some equity
indices, other commodities or alternatives (Chart 2). 15
10
Chart 2: Gold has been less volatile than many
5
equity indices, alternatives and commodities
because of its scale, liquidity and diverse sources 0
of demand Low (<2%) Moderate (2% - 5%) High (>5%)
US CPI % y/y
Average daily volatility of several major assets since
2003* Nominal return Real return*
*As of 31 December 2023. Based on y/y changes in US dollars for ‘gold’: LBMA
Global Agg bonds
Gold Price PM and ‘inflation’: US CPI since January 1971.
Global stocks
Source: Bloomberg, ICE Benchmark Administration, World Gold Council
BBG commodities
Gold
Our research also shows that gold should do well in
EM stocks periods of deflation. Such periods are characterised
US stocks by low interest rates, reduced consumption and
Private Equity
investment, and financial stress, all of which tend to
foster gold demand.
REITs
Crude oil
Store of value
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Annualised volatility, %
Historically, major currencies were pegged to
gold. That changed with the unravelling of the US
Stocks Bonds Alternatives gold standard in 1971 and the eventual collapse
of the Bretton Woods system. Since then, with few
*Annualised volatility is computed based on daily returns in US dollars between
31 December 2003 and 31 December 2023. Indices used: Bloomberg Global exceptions, gold has significantly outperformed all
Aggregate Bond Index, MSCI Daily Gross World Index; MSCI Daily Gross EM; MSCI major currencies and commodities as a means of
USA Index; LBMA Gold Price PM, Bloomberg Commodity Index, Bloomberg WTI
Crude Oil; S&P Listed Private Equity Index; FTSE Nareit Equity REITs Index USD. exchange. And although this outperformance was
particularly marked immediately following the end
Source: Bloomberg, ICE Benchmark Administration, World Gold Council
of the gold standard, gold has clearly continued
to outperform most major currencies in the more
Beating inflation, combating deflation recent past (Chart 4). A key factor behind this robust
Gold has long been considered a hedge against performance is that gold mine production has grown
inflation and the data confirms this: since 1971 it has slowly over time – increasing by approximately 1.7%
outpaced the US and world consumer price indices per year over the past 20 years.
(CPI). Gold also protects investors against high
inflation. In years when inflation was between 2%-
5%, gold’s price increased 8% per year on average.
This number increased significantly with even
higher inflation levels (Chart 3). Over the long term,
therefore, gold has not just preserved capital but also
helped it grow.
Chart 4: The purchasing power of major currencies and commodities has significantly
eroded relative to gold
Value of currencies and broad commodities relative to gold ( January 2000 = 100)*
Value in gold
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
*As of 31 December 2023. Relative value between ‘gold’: LBMA Gold Price PM, ‘commodities’: Bloomberg Commodity Index, and major currencies since 2000. Value of
commodities and currencies measured in ounces of gold and indexed to 100 in January 2000.
By contrast, fiat money can be printed in unlimited Chart 5: Gold prices have tracked the expansion
quantities to support monetary policy, as exemplified of US money supply
by the quantitative easing measures in the aftermath
US M2 growth, US CPI and gold price*
of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19
pandemic. In these crises, many investors turned to Index level US$/oz
gold in order to hedge themselves against currency
3,000 2,500
devaluation and preserve their purchasing power
6.6%
over time.
2,500
2,000
In fact, the rapidly increasing US money supply 7.0%
and the low-rate environment fostered an optimal 2,000
environment for gold to perform well (Chart 5). 1,500
1,500
1,000
1,000 3.9%
500
500
0 0
1972 1984 1996 2008 2020
*As of 31 December 2023. US CPI and US M2 were constructed using data from
January 1972 and re-based to 100 on January 1972. Gold based on the LBMA Gold
Price PM USD.
CAGR, %
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
LTCM Dot-com 9/11 2002 Great Sov'gn debt Sov'gn debt Brexit 2018 COVID-19 2022
bubble Recession Recession crisis I crisis II pullback pullback
*As of 31 December 2023. Return computations in US dollars for ‘Global stocks’: FTSE All World Index; ‘US Treasuries’: Bloomberg Barclays US Treasury Index; ‘gold’: LBMA
Gold Price PM. Dates used: Black Monday: 9/1987 - 11/1987; LTCM: 8/1998; Dot-com: 3/2000 - 3/2001; September 11: 9/2001; 2002 recession: 3/2002 - 7/2002; global
financial crisis (GFC): 10/2007 - 2/2009; Sovereign debt crisis I: 1/2010 - 6/2010; Sovereign debt crisis II: 2/2011-10/2011; Brexit: 23/6/2016 - 27/6/2016; 2018 pullback:
10/2018 - 12/2018; 2020 pullback: 31/1/2020 - 31/3/2020; 2022 pullback: 1/2022 – 12/2022.
Chart 8: Gold performs well in the recovery periods following a systemic selloff
Performance of gold and Treasuries from the market trough (bottom) to the market recovery point (stock
market levels before the systemic selloff)*
%
167%**
90%
70%
50%
30%
10%
-10%
-30%
Post LTCM Post dot-com Post 9/11 Post 2002 Post Great Post Sov'gn Post Sov'gn Post Brexit Post 2018 Post
bubble Recession Recession debt crisis I debt crisis II pullback COVID-19
Gold US Treasuries
* As of 31 December 2023. Return computations in US dollars for ‘US Treasuries’: Bloomberg Barclays US Treasury Index; ‘gold’: LBMA Gold Price PM. Dates used are based
on the end dates of Chart 7. Post Black Monday: 11/1987 - 6/1989; Post LTCM: 8/1998 - 11/1998; Post dot-com: 3/2001 - 5/2007; Post 9/11: 9/2001-11/2001; Post 2002
recession: 7/2002 - 11/2004; Post GFC: 2/2009 - 1/2013; Post sovereign debt crisis I: 6/2010 - 10/2010; Post sovereign debt crisis II: 10/2011 - 2/2012; Post Brexit: 6/2016 -
7/2016; Post 2018 pullback: 12/2018 - 6/2019; Post 2020 pullback: 3/2020 - 7/2020.
** The bar is truncated for the Dot-com bubble recovery due to its extreme differential between others and visibility.
The gold market is also more liquid than several Chart 10: Gold is liquid across key investment
major financial markets, including euro/yen and the platforms
Dow Jones Industrial Average, while trading volumes Average daily trading volume by point of access in
are similar to those of US T-Bills (Chart 9). Gold’s 2023*
trading volumes averaged approximately US$163bn
per day in 2023. During that period, OTC spot and
derivatives contracts accounted for US$99bn and
gold futures traded US$62bn per day across various
global exchanges. Physically-backed gold ETFs (gold Gold ETFs
US$ 2bn
ETFs) offer an added source of liquidity, with global 1.2%
gold ETFs trading an average of US$2bn per day
(Chart 10). Exchanges
US$ 61.5bn
Chart 9: Gold trades more than many other major 37.8%
financial assets
UK Gilts
German Bunds
DJIA
Euro/yen *Average daily trading volume from 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023. Gold
liquidity includes estimates of OTC transactions and published statistics on futures
Euro/sterling exchanges, and gold-backed exchange-traded products.
Gold**
The scale and depth of the market means that it
S&P 500
can comfortably accommodate large, buy-and-hold
0 50 100 150 200 250 institutional investors. In stark contrast to many
financial markets, gold’s liquidity does not dry up,
US$bn/day
even at times of financial stress. Importantly too,
Stocks Bonds Currencies gold allows investors to meet liabilities when less
liquid assets in their portfolio are difficult to sell, or
*Based on estimated average daily trading volumes from 1 January 2023 to mispriced.
31 December 2023, except for currencies that correspond to April 2022 daily
volumes due to data availability.
Portfolio impact
Risk/reward profile It shows that an average USD portfolio would have
achieved higher risk-adjusted returns and lower
Long-term returns, liquidity and effective drawdowns if 2.5%, 5%, 7.5% or 10% were allocated to
diversification all benefit overall portfolio gold (Chart 12 and Table 1).
performance. In combination, they suggest that the
addition of gold can materially enhance a portfolio’s Chart 12: Adding gold over the past 20 years
risk-adjusted returns. would have increased risk-adjusted returns of a
hypothetical USD portfolio
Our analysis of investment performance over the
Risk-adjusted returns of a hypothetical portfolio with
past 3, 5, 10 and 20 years emphasises gold’s positive
and without gold*
impact on an institutional portfolio (Chart 11).
Risk adj. returns
Chart 11: Hypothetical portfolio
0.75
Asset allocation: 50% stocks, 40% fixed income,
10% alternatives*
0.70
Global stocks
3%
3%
3% EM stocks
5% 0.65
Global Small Cap
* As of 31 December 2023.
Table 1: Gold has increased risk-adjusted returns while reducing portfolio volatility
and maximum drawdowns
Comparison of an average hypothetical USD portfolio and an equivalent portfolio with 5% gold over the past 3, 5,
10 and 20 years based on US-dollar returns*
Annualised returns 2.5% 2.6% 7.7% 7.9% 5.5% 5.6% 6.3% 6.4%
Annualised volatility 11.6% 11.3% 11.9% 11.5% 9.5% 9.2% 9.9% 9.6%
Risk-adjusted return 21.5% 22.8% 64.5% 68.2% 57.9% 60.5% 63.3% 66.9%
Maximum drawdown -19.9% -19.3% -19.9% -19.3% -19.9% -19.3% -35.3% -33.0%
Chart 13: Gold could significantly improve risk-adjusted portfolio returns across various levels of risk
Return, %
8.5%
Equivalent volatility
8.0%
portfolio with gold
7.5%
Equivalent return
7.0%
portfolio with gold
6.5%
Portfolio without gold
6.0%
5.5%
5.0%
4.5%
4.0%
4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
* As of 31 December 2023.
In addition to a traditional historical simulation, Chart 14: The gold allocation that could deliver
a mean variance optimisation analysis suggests the maximum risk-adjusted return for each
that an allocation to gold may result in a material hypothetical portfolio mix
enhancement to portfolio risk-adjusted returns by
shifting the efficient frontier upwards. For example, Gold weight, %
a portfolio with gold could deliver a higher return for 12%
the same level of risk, or the same return for a lower
10%
level of risk (Chart 13).
8%
The ‘optimal’ amount of gold varies according
6%
to individual asset allocation decisions. Broadly
speaking, the analysis suggests that the higher the 4%
risk in the portfolio – whether in terms of volatility
2%
or concentration of assets – the larger the required
allocation to gold, within the range in consideration, 0%
to offset that risk (Chart 14). STOCKS: 35% STOCKS: 50% STOCKS: 65%
BONDS: 60% BONDS: 40% BONDS: 20%
ALTS: 5% ALTS: 10% ALTS: 15%
Portfolio mix, %
Gold may result in a * As of 31 December 2023.
material enhancement Source: Bloomberg, ICE Benchmark Administration, World Gold Council
to portfolio risk-adjusted
returns
Potential risks
and challenges
Given the risk/reward trade off associated with any No cash flows: A widely perceived drawback of
investment, it is important to acknowledge and gold is that it does not provide any regular income,
understand not only opportunities, but also key risks. unlike other asset classes such as bonds, property
or even some company stocks. But the reason for
Non-standard valuation: Gold does not this is simple: gold has no credit risk. There is no
directly conform to the most common valuation promise to repay. Nor does it bear any counter-party
methodologies used for equities or bonds. Without risk. This means, however, that investors depend
a coupon or dividend, typical models based on on price appreciation to benefit from gold. And
discounted cash flows, expected earnings or book- in this regard gold has a good track record. It has
to-value ratios struggle to provide an appropriate generated long-term positive returns in both good
assessment for gold’s underlying value. This and bad economic times. At the same time, gold
presented an opportunity for the World Gold Council has outperformed many other major asset classes
to develop a framework to better understand gold over various investment horizons (3 years, 5 years,
valuation. 10 years, 20 years, and 50 years). Gold’s strong
performance is no coincidence: it is a by-product of
Our gold valuation framework allows investors to the underlying demand and supply dynamics, which
understand the drivers of gold demand and supply combine a natural scarcity with diverse sources of
and, based on market equilibrium, estimate their demand including jewellery, technology, investment
impact on price performance. and central banks.
Conclusion
Perceptions of gold have changed substantially over
the past two decades, reflecting increased wealth
in the East and a growing worldwide appreciation
of gold’s role within an institutional investment
portfolio.
Taylor Burnette
Research Lead, Americas
Market Strategy
John Reade
Senior Market Strategist,
Europe and Asia
Joseph Cavatoni
Senior Market Strategist,
Americas
Further information:
Contact:
research@gold.org
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