Probability

61. A bag contains 4 red and 6 black v balls. A ball is drawn at random from the bag, its colour is
observed and this ball along with two additional balls of the same colour is returned to the bag. If
now a ball is drawn at random from the bag, then probability that this drawn ball is red, is: (2018)
3
(a)
4
3
(b)
10
2
(c)
5
1
(d)
5

62. A box ‘A’ contains 2 white, 3 red and 2 black balls. Another box ‘B’ contains 4 white, 2 red
and 3 black balls. If two balls are drawn at random, without replacement, from a randomly
selected box and one ball turns out to be white while the other ball turns out to be red, then the
probability that both balls are drawn from box ‘B’ is: (2018)
9
(a)
16
9
(b)
32
7
(c)
8
7
(d)
16

n
 1+ i 3 
63. The least positive integer n for which   = 1 , is (2018)
 1 − i 3 
(a) 2
(b) 5
(c) 6
(d) 3

3 7 15 31
64. The sum of the first 20 terms of the series 1 + + + + + ..., is: (2018)
2 4 8 16
1
(a) 39 + 19
2

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 1
(b) 38 +
220
1
(c) 38 + 19
2
1
(d) 39 + 20
2

65. If three distinct numbers are chosen randomly from the first 100 natural numbers, then the
probability that all three of them are divisible by both 2 and 3, is (2004)
4
(a)
55
4
(b)
35
4
(c)
33
4
(d)
1155

66. Two numbers are selected randomly from the set S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) without replacement one
by one. The probability that minimum of the two numbers is less than 4, is (2003)
(a) 1/15
(b) 14/15
(c) 1/5
(d) 4/5

67. If the integers m and n are chosen at random between 1 and 100, then the probability that a
number of the form 7m + 7n is divisible by 5, equals (1999)
1
(a)
4
1
(b)
7
1
(c)
8
1
(d)
49

68. Seven white balls and three black balls are randomly placed in a row. The probability that no
two black balls are placed adjacently, equals (1998)

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 1
(a)
2
7
(b)
15
2
(c)
15
1
(d)
3

69. Three of the six vertices of a regular hexagon are chosen at random. The probability that the
triangle with three vertices is equilateral, equals (1995)
(a) 1/2
(b) 1/5
(c) 1/10
(d) 1/20

70. Three identical dice are rolled. The probability that the same number will appear on each of
them, is (1984)
1
(a)
6
1
(b)
36
1
(c)
18
3
(d)
28

71. Fifteen coupons are numbered 1, 2, ..., 15, respectively. Seven coupons are selected at random
one at a time with replacement. The probability that the largest number appearing on a selected
coupon is 9, is (1983)
6
9
(a)  
 16 
7
8
(b)  
 15 
7
3
(c)  
5
(d) None of these

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72. For three events A, Band C, if P (exactly one of A or B occurs) = P (exactly one of B or C
1
occurs) = P (exactly one of C or A occurs) = and P (all the three events 4 occur simultaneously)
4
1
= , then the probability that at least one of the events occurs, is (2017)
16
7
(a)
32
7
(b)
16
7
(c)
64
3
(d)
16

3
4
( )1
3
( 1
)
73. If P ( B ) = , P A  B  C = and P A  B  C = then P ( B  C ) is equal to
3
(2002)

1
(a)
12
1
(b)
6
1
(c)
15
1
(d)
9

74. If E and F are events with P(E) ≤ P(F) and P(E ∩ F) > 0, then which one is not correct?
(1998)
(a) occurrence of E ⟹ occurrence of F
(b) occurrence of F ⟹ occurrence of E
(c) non-occurrence of E ⟹ non-occurrence of F
(d) None of the above

75. For the three events A, B and C, P (exactly one of the events A or B occurs) = P (exactly one
of the events B or C occurs) = P (exactly one of the events C or A occurs) = p and P (all the three
1
events occurs simultaneously) = p2, where 0 < p < . Then, the probability of at least one of the
2
three events A, B and C occurring is (1996)
3 p + 2 p2
(a)
2

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 p + 3 p2
(b)
4
p + 3 p2
(c)
2
3 p + 2 p2
(d)
4
76. If 0 < P (A) < 1, 0 < P(B) < 1 and P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P(B) – P(A) P(B), then (1995)
(a) P (B/A) = P(B) – P(A)
(b) P (A' – B') = P(A') – P(B')
(c) P (A ∪ B)' = P(A)' P(B)'
(d) P (A/B) = P(A) – P (B)

77. The probability that at least one of the events A and B occurs is 0.6. If A and B occur
( ) ( )
simultaneously with probability 0.2, then P A + P B is equal to (1987)
(a) 0.4
(b) 0.8
(c) 1.2
(d) 1.4

78. Two events A and B have probabilities 0.25 and 0.50, respectively. The probability that both
A and B occur simultaneously is 0.14. Then, the probability that neither A nor B occurs, is
(1980)
(a) 0.39
(b) 0.25
(c) 0.11
(d) None of these

79. Let two fair six-faced dice A and B be thrown simultaneously. If E1 is the event that die A
shows up four, E2 is the event that die B shows up two and E3 is the event that the sum of numbers
on both dice is odd, then which of the following statements is not true? (2016)
(a) E1 and E2 are independent
(b) E2 and E3 are independent
(c) E1 and E3 are independent
(d) E1, E2 and E3 are independent

(
80. Let A and B be two events such that P A  B = ) 1
6
1
4
( )
1
, P ( A  B ) = and P A = where A
4
stands for the complement of the event A. Then, the events A and B are (2014)
(a) independent but not equally likely

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(b) independent and equally likely
(c) mutually exclusive and independent
(d) equally likely but not independent

81. An experiment has 10 equally likely outcomes. Let A and B be two non-empty events of the
experiment. If A consists of 4 outcomes, then the number of outcomes that B must have, so that A
and B are independent, is (2008)
(a) 2, 4 or 8
(b) 3, 6 or 9
(c) 4 or 8
(d) 5 or 10

82. Let Ec denotes the complement of an event E. If E, F, G are pairwise independent events with
P (G) > 0 and P (E ∩ F ∩ G) = 0. Then, P (Ec ∩ Fc | G) equals (2007)
(a) P ( E c ) + P ( F c )

(b) P ( E c ) − P ( F c )

(c) P ( E c ) − P ( F )

(d) P ( E ) − P ( F c )

83. One Indian and four American men and their wives are to be seated randomly around a circular
table. Then, the conditional probability that Indian man is seated adjacent to his wife given that
each American man is seated adjacent to his wife, is (2007)
1
(a)
2
1
(b)
3
2
(c)
5
1
(d)
5

84. A fair die is rolled. The probability that the first time 1 occurs at the even throw, is (2005)
(a) 1/6
(b) 5/11
(c) 6/11
(d) 5/36

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85. There are four machines and it is known that exactly two of them are faulty. They are tested,
one by one, in a random order till both the faulty machines are identified. Then, the probability
that only two tests are needed, is (1998)
1
(a)
3
1
(b)
6
1
(c)
2
1
(d)
4

86. A fair coin is tossed repeatedly. If tail appears on first four tosses, then the probability of head
appearing on fifth toss equals (1998)
1
(a)
2
1
(b)
32
31
(c)
32
1
(d)
5

87. If from each of the three boxes containing 3 white and 1 black, 2 white and 2 black, 1 white
and 3 black balls, one ball is drawn at random, then the probability that 2 white and 1 black balls
will be drawn, is (1998)
13
(a)
32
1
(b)
4
1
(c)
32
3
(d)
16

88. The probability of India winning a test match against West Indies is 1/2. Assuming
independence from match to match the probability that in a 5 match series India's second win
occurs at third test, is (1995)
(a) 1/8

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(b) 1/4
(c) 1/2
(d) 2/3

89. An unbiased die with faces marked 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 is rolled four times. Out of four face
values obtained, the probability that the minimum face value is not less than 2 and the maximum
face value is not greater than 5, is (1993)
(a) 16/81
(b) 1/81
(c) 80/81
(d) 65/81

90. A student appears for tests I, II and III. The student is successful if he passes either in tests I
1
and II or tests I and III. The probabilities of the student passing in tests I, II and III are p, q and
2
1
respectively. If the probability that the student is successful, is then (1986)
2
(a) p = q =1
1
(b) p = q =
2
(c) p = 1, q = 0
1
(d) p = 1, q =
2

( )
91. If A and B are two independent events such that P(A) > 0, and P(B) ≠ 1, then P A / B is equal
to (1982)
(a) 1 − P ( A / B )

(
(b) 1 − P A / B )
1− P ( A  B)
(c)
P ( B)

(d)
( )
P A
P ( B)

92. The probability that an event A happens in one trial of an experiment, is 0.4. Three independent
trials of the experiments are performed. The probability that the event A happens at least once, is
(1980)
(a) 0.936

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(b) 0.784
(c) 0.904
(d) None of these

4 1
93. A signal which can be green or red with probability and respectively, is received by
5 5
station A and then transmitted to station B. The probability of each station receiving the signal
3
correctly is . If the signal received at station B is green, then the probability that the original
4
signal green is (2010)
3
(a)
5
6
(b)
7
20
(c)
23
9
(d)
20

94. A box contains 15 green and 10 yellow balls. If 10 balls are randomly drawn one-by-one with
replacement, then the variance of the number of green balls drawn is (2017)
12
(a)
5
(b) 6
(c) 4
6
(d)
25

95. A multiple choice examination has 5 questions. Each question has three alternative answers of
which exactly one is correct. The probability that a student will get 4 or more correct answers just
by guessing is (2013)
17
(a) 5
3
13
(b) 5
3
11
(c) 5
3
10
(d) 5
3

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96. India plays two matches each with West Indies and Australia. In any match the probabilities
of India getting points 0, 1 and 2 are 0.45, 0.05 and 0.50, respectively. Assuming that the outcomes
are independent. The probability of India getting at least 7 points, is (1992)
(a) 0.8750
(b) 0.0875
(c) 0.0625
(d) 0.0250

97. One hundred identical coins, each with probability p, of showing up heads are tossed once. If
0 < p < 1 and the probability of heads showing on 50 coins is equal to that of heads showing on 51
coins, then the value of p is (1988)
(a) 1/2
(b) 49/101
(c) 50/101
(d) 51/101

98. A pair of fair shoe is rolled together till a sum of either 5 or 7 is obtained. If p denotes the
probability that 7 comes before 5, then the value of 5p is
(a) 1
(b) 2
(c) 3
(d) 4

99. In bag A there are 5 white and 3 black balls. In bag B there are 3 white and 1 black balls. One
ball is chosen at random from any bag and found to be white then the probability that it is from
bag B is
5
(a)
11
6
(b)
11
3
(c)
8
(d) None of these

100. The probability that the birth days of six different persons will fall in exactly two calendar
months, is
341
(a) 5
12

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 66
(b)
125
352
(c) 5
12
(d) none of these

101. A and B are two matrices with 32 and 56 elements respectively then the probability that (A ×
B) is possible is-
1
(a)
9
1
(b)
11
1
(c)
12
1
(d)
14

102. Let X be a set containing n elements. If two subsets A and B of X are picked at random, the
probability that A and B have the same number of elements is -
2n
C
(a) n n
2
1
(b) 2 n
Cn
1.3.5.... ( 2n − 1)
(c)
2n n !
3n
(d)
4n

103. A four-digit number is formed by the digits 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 8. The probability that the
number has odd digits at both ends is:
2
(a)
7
3
(b)
7
1
(c)
7
(d) none of these

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104. Five digits from the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 are written in random order. If the probability
that this 5-digit number is divisible by 4 is 𝜆 then the value of 28 𝜆 is
25
(a)
3
20
(b)
3
17
(c)
3
28
(d)
3

105. The letters of the word RESONANCE arranged at random. The probability that the vowels
may occupy the even places, is
3
(a)
126
1
(b)
126
5
(c)
126
1
(d)
64

106. A coin is tossed and a die is thrown. Let A be the event T turn’s up on the coins and odd
number turns up on the die and B be the event H turns up on the coin and an even number turns
up on the die write the probability A and B, A or B respectively.
1
(a) 0,
2
1
(b) 0,
3
1
(c) , 0
2
1
(d) , 0
3

(
107. If A and B are events such that is P (A) 0.42, P (B) = 0.48 are P (A ∩ B) = 0.16, then P A + B )
is equal to
(a) 0.90
(b) 0.46

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(c) 0.26
(d) 0.44

108. The probability that 13th day of randomly selected month is a second Saturday is
3
(a)
84
5
(b)
84
1
(c)
84
13
(d)
84

109. In throwing a pair of dies getting an even number on first die and a total of 7 on both the dies
is
(a) 1/6
(b) 1/12
(c) 1/4
(d) 5/12

1 1 1 B
110. If A and B are two events such that P ( A ) = , P ( B ) = and P ( A  B ) = then P   =
3 4 5  A
(a) 3/40
(b) 13/40
(c) 27/40
(d) 37/40

4
111. If the odds in favor of an event be , then the probability of non-occurrence of the event is
5
(a) 8/9
(b) 4/9
(c) 5/9
(d) none of these

112. The probability distribution of a random variable X is given below. Then its mean is

(a) 2

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(b) 1
(c) 3
(d) 4

113. A purse contain 4, 10 paise coin; 3, 25 paise coin; 2, 50 paise coin. A coin is drawn at random.
Find the probability of coin drawn is 25 paise or 50 paise is-
1
(a)
2
5
(b)
9
4
(c)
9
1
(d)
3

114. There are 4 white and 5 black in a Box. In an another box there are 5 white and 4 black balls.
An unbiased die is rolled. If it shows even no. then a ball is drawn from the second box otherwise
from first box. If the ball drawn is white, then the probability that the ball was drawn from the first
box is
5
(a)
9
4
(b)
9
7
(c)
9
1
(d)
9

115. In a box containing 100 eggs, 20 eggs are rotten. The probability that out of a sample of 5
eggs none is rotten. If the sampling is with replacement is
5
3
(a)  
5
5
4
(b)  
5
5
2
(c)  
5

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 5
1
(d)  
 10 

116. Three players A, B, C in this order, draw a card from well shuffled pack of card and reshuffled
after each draw. If the winner is one who draws a red card, then C’s chance of winning is
1
(a)
8
1
(b)
7
1
(c)
6
1
(d)
5

117. There are 3 bags which are known to contain 2 white and 3 black balls, 4 white and 2 black
balls and 3 white and 2 black balls. A bag is drawn randomly from one of the bag find the
probability of ball being back.
7
(a)
9
5
(b)
9
4
(c)
9
1
(d)
9

2
118. The probability of a man hitting a target is . He tries 5 times. The probability that the target
3
will be hit at least 3 times, is
3 2
5  2 1
(a) C3    
 3 3
4 1
5  2 1
(b) C4    
 3  3
5 0
5  2 1
(c) C5    
 3  3
(d) none of these

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119. In an entrance test there are multiple choice questions. There are four possible answers to
each question of which one is correct. The probability that a student knows the answer to questions
is 75%. If he gets the correct answer to a question, the probability that he was guessing is
1
(a)
13
1
(b)
4
2
(c)
13
7
(d)
3

120. In 8 trails of an experiment, if the probability of getting 3 successes is maximum, then the
probability of failure in each trial is
3
(a)
8
5
(b)
8
1
(c)
8
1
(d)
4

@aakashallen
 Answers

61. (c) 62. (d) 63. (d) 64. (c) 65. (d) 66. (d) 67. (a) 68. (b) 69. (c) 70. (b) 71. (d) 72. (b)
73. (a) 74. (c) 75. (a) 76. (b) 77. (c) 78. (a) 79. (d) 80. (a) 81. (d) 82. (c) 83. (c) 84. (b)
85. (b) 86. (a) 87. (a) 88. (b) 89. (a) 90. (c) 91. (b) 92. (b) 93. (c) 94. (a) 95. (c) 96. (b)
97. (d) 98. (c) 99. (b) 100. (a) 101. (c) 102. (c)103. (c) 104. (b) 105. (b) 106. (a) 107. (c) 108. (c)
109. (b) 110. (d) 111. (c) 112. (c) 113. (b) 114. (b) 115. (b) 116. (b) 117. (c) 118. (d) 119. (a) 120.
(b)

61. (c)

62. (d)

63. (d)

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64. (c)

65. (d)

66. (d)

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67. (a)

68. (b)

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69. (c)

70. (b)

71. (d)

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72. (b)

73. (a)

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74. (c)

75. (a)

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76. (b)

77. (c)

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78. (a)

79. (d)

80. (a)

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81. (d)

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82. (c)

83. (c)

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84. (b)

85. (b)

86. (a)

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87. (a)

88. (b)

89. (a)

90. (c)

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91. (b)

92. (b)

93. (c)

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94. (a)

95. (c)

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96. (b)

97. (d)

98. (c)

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99. (b)

100. (a)

101. (c)

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102. (c)

103. (c)

104. (b)

105. (b)

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106. (a)

107. (c)

108. (c)

109. (b)

110. (d)

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111. (c)

112. (c)

113. (b)

114. (b)

115. (b)

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116. (b)

117. (c)

118. (d)

119. (a)

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120. (b)

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PROBABILITY
112

PROBABILITY

INTRODUCTION DEFINITIONS AND TYPES OF EVENTS

1. Factorial notation : 1. Random experiment :

If an act or an experiment has more than one possible results

If n  N, then the product 1 × 2 × 3 × ......× n is defined as
which are known in advance and it is not possible to predict
factorial n which is denoted by n  or n
which one is going to occur, then such an experiment is
i.e., n  1 × 2 × 3 × ......× n
called a random experiment.
We also define 0  
The following are some random experiments :

(i) Tossing of a coin

(ii) Throwing a six-faced die

n  n(n-1)  (iii) Drawing a card from a well-shuffled pack of cards

(iv) Ten horses run a race

2. Permutation :
(v) Two persons are selected out of 10 persons to form a
If n objects are given and we have to arrange r(r  n) out of
committee.
them such that the order in which we are arranging the
objects is important, then such an arrangement is called (vi) A ball is drawn from a bag containing 7 balls.
permutation of n objects taking r at a time. This is denoted 2. Outcome :

n! The result of a random experiment is called an outcome.

n
Pr = (n  r)!
3. Sample space :

3. Combination : The set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is

If n objects are given and we have to choose r(r  n) out of called a sample space and its elements are called sample
them such that the order in which we are choosing the objects points. A sample space is usually denoted by S.
is not important, then such a choice is called combination of
Illustrations ;
n objects taking r at a time. This is denoted by
(i) When a fair coin is tossed, then either head or tail
n!
n
Cr = r!(n  r)! will turn up.

Hence S = {H.T.} S contains 2 sample points.

4. Fundamental Principle of Counting :
(ii) When a six-faced die is thrown, then only one of
If an event can occur in ‘m’ different ways following which
another event can occur in ‘n’ different ways following which 1,2,3,4,5,6 will turn up.
another event can occur in ‘p’ different ways then the total Hence S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}. S contains 6 sample points.
number of ways of simultaneous occurence of all these
events in a definite order is m × n × p. (iii) Suppose a bag contains 7 balls.

@aakashallen
 PROBABILITY

Consider the sample points. 8. Intersection of events :

(a) The experiment is : one ball is drawn. We can draw
If A and B are two events of the sample space S then
one ball out of the 7 balls in 7C1 = 7 ways.
A  B or A . B is the event that both A and B take place.
 The sample space for this experiment contains 7
sample points. 9. Mutually Exclusive events :
(b) The experiment is : two balls are drawn. We can draw Two events A and B of the sample space S are said to be
2 balls out of the 7 balls in
mutually exclusive if they cannot occur simultaneously. In
7
76 such case A  B is a null set.
C2 = = 21 ways
1 2
10. Exhaustive events :
 the sample space for this experiment contains 21
sample points. Two events A and B of the sample space S are said to be
(c) The experiment is : three balls are drawn. exhaustive if A  B = S i.e. A  B contains all sample points.
The sample space for this experiment contains 7C3 = 11. Probability of an event :
765 Let A be an event in a sample space S. Then the probability
= 35 sample points
1 2  3 of the event A denoted by P(A) is defined as,
4. Event :
Any subset of a sample space is called an event. number of sample point sin A n(A)
P(A) =
number of sample point sinS n(S)
Example :
In a single throw of a die, the event of getting a prime number Theorem :
is E  {2,3,5} The sample space
S  {1,2,3,4,5,6} If E is an event of a sample space S, prove that 0  P(E)  1
 E  S  E is an event and P(E’ ) = 1 - P(E), where E’ is the complementary event of
5. Complementary event :
E.
Let A be an event in a sample space S. Then A is a subset of
S We can hence think of the complement of A in S, i..e., S-A. Proof :
This is also a subset of S and hence an event in S. This Suppose the sample space S contains n sample points and
event is called the complementary event of A and is denoted
by A or A’ m
the event E contains m sample points. Then P(E) =
Now, suppose S contains n sample points, A contains m n
sample points, Then A’ will contain
n - m sample points. m
Now, 0  m  n  0  1
6. Impossible event : n

Let S be a sample space. Since   S, So  is an event,

 0  P(E)  1
called an impossible event.
Further E’ contains n - m sample points,

 P(E’) = 1 - P(E)
12. Equally likely event :
The event E and not E are such that only one of them can
occur in a trial and at least one of them must occur. The events are said to be equally likely, if none of them is
expected to occur in preference to the other.
7. Union of events :
Ex :- When a die is thrown, then all the side faces are equally
If A and B are two events of the sample space S then A  B
or A + B is the event that either A or B (or both) take place. likely to come.

@aakashallen
 PROBABILITY

EXPERIMENT NO 1 : TOSSING COINS

Tossing one coin :

Let S be the sample space S  {H,T}, n (S) = 2 If one coin is tossed n times or n coins are tossed once the
sample space consists of same number of sample points.
Tossing two coin :
i.e. n(S) = (2)n
Let S be the sample space S  {HH, HT, TH, TT}  n (S) = 4
Prime numbers are 2, 3, 5, 7, 11, ...
Tossing three coin :
1 card is picked n(S) = 52C1 = 52
Let S be the sample space 2 card are drawn. n(S) = 52C2
S  {HHH,HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}
 n (S) = 8 EXPERIMENT NO 3: PACK OF CARDS

1. There are 4 suits (spade, heart, diamond and club)

each having 13 cards.
2 There are two colours red (heart and diamond) and
black (spade and club) each having 26 cards.
1. No head means all tails.
3. Jack, Queen and King are face cards. Therefore face
2. At least one head means one head or two heads or cards are 12 in pack of cards. Face card is also called
three heads a picture card.
3. At most two heads means two heads or one head 4. There are four aces. Ace is not a picture card.
or no head (all tail). 5. Face cards and Ace cards are known Coloured Cards.

EXPERIMENT NO 2 : THROWING DIE / DICE Theorem 1

If E is an event of sample space S then 0  P(E)  1

One six faced die is thrown :
Proof :
S  {1,2,3,4,5,6}  n(S) = 6
As E  S
Two dice are thrown :
 0  n(E)  n(S)

0 n(E) n(S)
 
n(S) n(S) n(S) 
 ( n(S)  0.
(1,1) (2,1) (3,1) (4,1) (5,1) (6,1) 
(1,2) (2, 2) (3, 2)(4,2) (5,2) (6,2) 
 
(1,3) (2,3) (3,3)(4,3) (5,3) (6,3)   0  P(E)  1
S  
(1, 4) (2, 4) (3, 4)(4, 4) (5, 4) (6,4)
(1,5) (2,5) (3,5)(4,5) (5,5) (6,5) 
 
(1,6) (2,6) (3,6)(4,6) (5,6) (6,6) 

P(E) = 0 if and only if E is an impossible event and

 n(S) = 36 P(E) = 0 if and only if E is a certain event

@aakashallen
 PROBABILITY

Theorem 2 IMPORTANT RESULTS

If E is an event of sample space S and E’ is the event that 1. A and B are mutually exclusive if P(AB) = 0.
E does not happen then
P(E’) = 1 - P(E) 2. They are independent if P (A B) = P(A) . P(B)

Proof : 3. Two independent events cannot be mutually exclusive.

E’ is the event that E does not happen.
4. If A, B and C are independent events with non-zero
 E and E’ are complements of each other.
probabilities then P(A B B) = P(A) . P(B) . P(C)
 n(E) + n(E’) = n(S) Dividing by n(S), ( n(S)  0.
5. If A1, A2, A3,... An are independent events with non-zero
n(E ) n(E' ) n(S )
 + n(S ) = n(S ) probabilities, then
n(S )

 P(E) + P(E’) = 1 P (A1 A2 A3 ......An) =P (A1) . P (A2)... P (An)

 P(E’) = 1 - P(E)
6. P [exactly one of A or B occurs]
Theorem 3
(i) If A and B are two events of sample sapce S, prove that = P(A B’) + P (A’ B)
P (A B) = P(A) + P(B) – P (A B).
= P(A B) – P (A B)
(ii) P(A B C) = P(A) + P(B) + P (C) – P (A B)
– P (B C) – P (C A) + P (A BC) = P(A) + P(B) – 2P (A B)
Theorem 4
7. P(A’ B’) = P (A B)’ = 1 – P (A B)
Show that if A and B are independent events defined on S
then 8. P(A’ B’) = P (A B)’ = 1 – P (A B)
(i) A & B’ (ii) A’ & B (iii) A’ & B’ are
9. P(A) = P(A B) +P (A B’)
independent event where A and B are mutually events of A’
and B’ respectively. 10. P(B) = P(A B) + P(A’ B)
Ans. Since A and B are known to be independence events.
We have P(AB) = P(A) . P(B) 11. P(A B C) = P(A) + P (B) + P (C)
(i) P(A B’ ) = P(A) – P (A B) = P(A) – P (A). P(B)
– P(A B) – P(B C) – P (C A)
= P (A) (1 – P(B))
= P (A) . P(B’) + P (A B C)
 A and B’ are independent events
(ii) P(A’ B) = P(B) – P(A B) = P(B) – P(A) . P(B) 12. P (A B C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) if A, B and C are mutually
= P (B) (1–P(A)) = p(B) . P(A’) exclusive.
 A’ and B are independent events
(iii) P(A’ B’) = P (A B)’ = 1 – P (A B) 13. If A and B are mutually exclusive and exhausive events then
= 1 – [P(A) + P(B) – P (A B)] P(A) + P(B) = 1
= 1 – [P(A) + P(B) – P (A) . (B)]
= 1 – PA – P(B) + P(A) . P (B) 14. If A, B and C are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events
= [1–P(A)] – P(B) [1–P(A)] then
= [1–P(A)] [1–P(B)] = P(A’) . P(B’)
P (A) + P(B) + P(C) = 1
A’ and B’ are independent events.

@aakashallen
 PROBABILITY

Theorem 1 :
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
If A and B are independent events associated with a random
Let A and B be two events associated with a random experiment, then P (A B) = P (A) P (B).
experiment. Then, the probability of occurrence of event A Theorem 2 :
under the condition that B has already occurred and
If A1, A2, ..., An are independent events associated with a
P (B)  0, is called the conditional probability and it is denoted
random experiment, then
by P (A/B). Thus, we have
P (A1 A2 A3 ... An) = P (A1) P (A2) ... P (An)
P (A/B) = Probability of occurence of A given that B has
Theorem 3 :
already occurred.
If A and B are independent events associated with a random
experiment, then
Number of elementary events favourable A  B
P (A / B) 
Number of elementary events favourable to B
(i) A and B are independent events

(ii) A and B are independent events

n (A  B)
 P (A / B) 
n (B)
(iii) A and B are also independent events.

THE LAW OF TOTAL PROBABILITY

P (A  B)
 P (A/B)=
P (B)
Theorem : (Law of Total Probability) Let S be the sample space
and let E1, E2, ..., En be n mutually exclusive and exhaustive
Theorem
events associated with a random experiment. If A is any

If A and B are two events associated with a random event which occurs with E1 or E2 or ... or En, then

experiment, then P (A) = P (E1) P (A/E1) + P (E2) P (A/E2) + ... + P (En) P (A/En)

P (A B) = P (A) P (B/A), if P (A) 0

Note :

1. 0 P(A/B) 1

2. P (A/A) = 1

INDEPENDENT EVENTS

Definition :

Events are said to be independent, if the occurrence or non-

occurrence of one does not affect the probability of the
occurrence or non-occurrence of the other.

@aakashallen
 PROBABILITY

STATEMENT OF BAYES’ THEOREM BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

If B1, B2, B3,... Bn are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events (i) Bernoulli Trials : Trials of a random experiment are called
& if A is an event consequent to these Bi’s then for each i, Bernoulli trials, if they satisfy the following conditions :
where i = 1, 2, 3...., n (i) They are finite in number.

(ii) They are independent of each other.

P(Bi ) P  A 

P B   Bi  (iii) Each trial has exactly two outcomes : success or
i

 A  P(B ) P  A   P (B ) P  A  .....  P (B ) P  A 
i  B  2  B  n  B 
 1  2  n  failure.

(iv) The probability of success or failure remains same in

each trial.
P (Bi ) P  A  (v) The probability of success is p and failure is q such
B
P  i    Bi 
 A n
that p + q = 1
 P (Bi ) P  A 
i 1  Bi 
(vi) The probability of r successes in n trails in any order
is given by nCr pr qn–r.

(ii) Binomial Distribution : Let X denote the random variable

which associates every outcome to the number of successes
in it. Then, X assumes values 0, 1, 2, ..., n such that

P (X = r) = nCr pr qn–r, r = 0, 1, 2, ..., n.

The probability distribution of the random variable X is

therefore given by

X: 0 1 2 ... r ... n

P(X) : nC0p0qn–0 n
C1p1qn–1 nC2 p2qn–2 ... nCrprqn–r ... n
Cnpnqn – n

(iii) Mean & Variance :

Mean = np
Variance = npq

@aakashallen
 PROBABILITY
118

SOLVED EXAMPLES

Example – 1 Example – 2

From a group of 8 boys and 5 girls a committee of 5 is to be 5 letters are to be posted in 5 post boxes. If any number of
formed. Find the probability that the committee contains letters can be posted in 5 post boxes, what is the probability
(i) 3 boys and 2 girls that each box contains only one letter?

(ii) at least 3 boys

Sol. Since any number of letters can be posted in all 5 post boxes,
each letter can be posted in 5 different ways.
Sol. From a group of 8 boys and 5 girls, a committee of 5 is to be
fromed.  n(S) = 5 × 5 × 5 × 5 ×5 = 55
 n(S) = (8+5.C5 Let A  the event that each box contains only one letter..
13
= C5 The first letter can be posted in 5 post boxes in 5 different
1312 1110  9 ways. Since each box contains only one letter, the second
= 5  4  3 2 1 letter can be posted in the remaining 4 post boxes in 4 different
ways.
= 9 × 11 × 13 = 1287
Similarly, the third letter can vbe posted in 3 different ways,
(i) 3 boys & 2 girls
the fourth letter can be posted in 2 different ways and the
 n(A) = 5C2  8C3
fifth letter can be posted in 1 way.
8 7  6 5 4  n(A) = 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 5 !
= 
3  2 1 2 1
n( A) 5!
= 7 × 8 × 10 = 560  P(A) = n(S)  5
5
 Probability of the event

n(A) 7  8 10 5  4  3  2 1 24
P(A) = n(S)  9 1113 = =
5  54 625

560 Example – 3
P(A) =
1287
(ii) at least 3 boys A bag contains 50 tickets, numbered from 1 to 50. One
ticket is drawn at random. What is the probability that
Let event B
= To select 5 containing at least 3 boys. (i) number on the ticket is a perfect square or divisible
by 4 ?
= To select 3 boys, 2 girls or 4 boys, 1 girl or all 5 boys.
 n (B) = 8C3  5C2 + 8C4  5C1 + 8C5  5C0 (ii) number on the ticket is prime number or greater
than 30 ?
8  7  6 5 4 8 7  6  5 8 7  6
= 3 2 1  2 1  4  3 2 1  5  3 2 1 1
Sol. One ticket can be drawn out of 50 tickets in 50C1 = 50 ways
= 560 + 350 + 56
n (S) = 50
= 966
 Probability of the event (i) Let A  the event that the number on the ticket is a perfect
square.
n(B) 966 322
 P(B) =  
n(S) 1287 429  A = {1, 4, 9, 16, 25, 36, 49}

 n(A) = 7

@aakashallen
 PROBABILITY

Example – 4
n(A) 7
 P(A)  
n(S) 50 A pair of dice is thown. If sum of the numbers is an even
number, what is the probability that it is a perfect square ?

Let B  the event that the number..

Sol. Let, S be the sample space of throwing two dice.
divisible by 4.  S= {(1, 1) (1, 2) (1, 3) (1, 4) (1, 5) (1, 6)

 B = {4, 8, 12, 16, 20, 24, 28, 32, 36, 40, 44, 48} (2, 1) (2, 2) (2, 3) (2, 4) (2, 5) (2, 6)
(3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 3) (3, 4) (3, 5) (3, 6)
 n(B) = 12
(4, 1) (4, 2) (4, 3) (4, 4) (4, 5) (4, 6)
(5, 1) (5, 2) (5, 3) (5, 4) (5, 5) (5, 6)
n(B) 12
 P(B)   (6, 1) (6, 2) (6, 3) (6, 4) (6, 5) (6, 6)}
n(S) 50
n (S) = 36
 Sum of the no. is even then nos. are 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12
AB = {4, 16, 36}
Let, event be A and, that has to be a perfect square then
 n(AB) = 3 these nos. are 1, 4, 9
Let, event be B
n(A  B) 3  A = {(1, 1) (1, 3) (1, 5) (2, 2) (2, 4) (2, 6)
 P(A  B)  
n(S) 50 (3, 1) (3, 3) (3, 5) (4, 2) (4, 4) (4, 6)
(5, 1) (5, 3) (5, 5) (6, 2) (6, 4) (6, 6)}
 required probability
n (A) = 18
= P(AB) And B = {(1, 3) (2, 2) (3, 1)}
n (B) = 3
= P (A) + P (B) – P (AB)
 3 1
 P   
7 12 3 16 8  A  18 6
    
50 50 50 50 25
Example – 5

(ii) Let C = the event that the number on the ticket is prime A problem in statistics is given to three students A, B and
numbers or greater than 30. C. Their chances of solving the problem are 1/3, 1/4 and
1/5 respectively. If all of them try independently, what is
 C = {2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, the probability that
39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50} (i) problem is not solved ?
(ii) problem is solved ?
 n(C) = 30
(iii) exactly two students solve the problems ?

n(B) 30 Sol. (i) Let A  the event that A solves the problem
 P(C)  
n(S) 50
B  the event that B solves the problem
C  the event that C solves the problem
3 1 1 1
 P(C)  Then P(A)  , P(B)  ,P(C) 
5 3 4 5

 1 2
P(A)  1  P(A)  1  
3 3

@aakashallen
 PROBABILITY

1 3 Example – 6
P(B)  1  P(B)  1  
4 4
One shot is fired from each of the three guns. Let A,B and
1 4 C denote the events that the target is hit by the first,
P(C)  1  P(C)  1  
5 5 second and third gun respectively. Assuming that A, B
A, B and C are independent events. and C are independent events and that P(A) = 0.5,
 A’, B’ and C’ are independent events. P(B) = 0.6 and P(C) = 0.8, find the probability that at least
A’ B’ C’  event that the problem is not solved. one hit is registered.
 P (problem is not solved)
= P (A’ B’C’) Sol. A  event that first gun hits the target

= P(A’) . P (B’) . P (C’) B  event that second gun hits the target
2 3 4 2 C  event that third gun hits the target and
=   
3 4 5 5
P(A) = 0.5, P(B) = 0.6, P(C) = 0.8
(ii) A B C  the event that the problem is solved.
By De Morgan’s law,  P(A’ ) = 1 – P(A) = 1 – 0.5 = 0.5
(A B C)’ = A’B’C’
P(B’ ) = 1 – P(B) = 1 – 0.6 = 0.4
 P (problem is solved)
= P (A B C) P (C’ ) = 1 – P(C) = 1 – 0.8 = 0.2

= 1 – P (problem is not solved) Now A, B, C are independent events

= 1–P (A B C)’
 A’, B’, C’ are independent events.
= 1 – P (A’B’ C’)
 A’B’ C’  event that the target is not hit by any gun
2 3
= 1 
5 5  P(A’B’C’ ) = P(A’) . P (B’) . P (C’)
(iii) Let E  the event that exactly two students solve the
= 0.5 × 0.4 × 0.2 = 0.040
problem.
Then E = P (A B C’) (A B’ C)  A B C  the event that the target is hit by at least one
(A’ B C) gun
where the events in the brackets are mutually exclusive. By De Morgan’s Law, (A B C)’
Also A, B, C and A’, B’, C’ are independent.
= A’ B’ C’
 P(E) = P(A) . P(B) . P(C’ )
+ P(A) . P(B’ ) . P (C) + P(A’ ) . P(B) . P (C)  P(target is hit by at least one gun)

1 1 4 1 3 1 2 1 1 = P(A B C)

          
3 4 5 3 4 5 3 4 5
= 1 – P (A B C)’
4 3 2 = 1 – P (A’ B’ C’ )
 _ 
60 60 60
= 1 – 0.04
9

60 = 0.96

3

20

@aakashallen
 PROBABILITY

Example – 7 Example – 8

A doctor is called to see a sick child. The doctor has prior Suppose you have a large barrel containing a number of
information that 80% of sick children in that area have the plastic eggs. Some eggs contain pearls, the rest contain
flu, while the other 20% are sick with measles. Assume nothing. Some eggs are painted blue, the rest are painted
that there is no other disease in that area. A well-known
5
symptom of measles is a rash. From the past records it is red. Suppose that 40% of the eggs are painted blue, of
13
known that, chances of having rashes given that sick child
the eggs painted blue contain pearls and 20% of the red
is suffering from measles is 0.95. However, occasionally
eggs are empty. What is the probability that an egg
children with flu also develop rash, whose chances are
containing pearl is painted blue ?
0.08. Upon examining the child, the doctor finds a rash.
What is the probability that the child has measles?
Sol. Let event A = An egg is painted blue.
Sol. Let A  event that the child is sick with flu event B = An egg is painted red.

B  event that the child is sick with measles The barrel contains egg with blue paint as 40% and red
paint as 60%.
C  event that the child has rash
 40 2
80 4 P(A)  40%  
 P(A)  80%   100 5
100 5
60 3
 P(B)  60%  
20 1 100 5
P(B)  20%  
100 5 Let event C = an egg selected contains a pearl.
Since the chances of having rashes, if the child is suffering Then C/A = A blue painted egg contains pearl. given that P
from measles is 0.95 and the chances of having rashes, if the (C/A) = 5/13.
child has flu is 0.08, P(C/B) = A red painted egg contains pearl. given that 20% of
red eggs are empty.
95
P (C / B)  0.95  i.e. 80% of red eggs contain pearls.
100
80 4
8  P(C / B)  80%  
and P (C / A)  0.08  100 5
100
 Required probability, that an egg containing pearl is painted
By Baye’s Theorem, probability that the child has measles blue is
provided he has the rashes is given by
P(A).P(C / A)
P(A / C) 
P (B) . P(C / B) P(A).P(C / A)  P(B).P(C / B)
P (B / C) 
P(A).P (C / A)  P(B).P(C / B)
2 5

 5 13
 1   95  2 5 3 4
     
  5   100  5 13 5 5
 4   8   1   95 
    
 5   100   5   100  2
50
 13 
95 95 206 206
 
32  95 127 13  25

= 0.748 25
  0.243
103

@aakashallen
 PROBABILITY

Example – 9 Example – 10

A pair of dice is thrown 7 times. If getting a total of 7 is The mean and variance of a binomial distribution are 4
considered a success, what is the probability of
and 4/3 respectively, find P (X  1).
(i) no success ? (ii) 6 successes ?
(iii) at least 6 successes ? (iv) at most 6 successes ? Sol. Let X be a binomial variate with parameters n and p. Then,

Sol. Let p denote the probability of getting a total of 7 in a single Mean = np and Variance = npq
throw of a pair of dice. Then,

6 1 The sum can be 7 in any one of the ways : 4

P   np = 4 and npq =
36 6  (1, 6), (6, 1), (2, 5), (5, 2), (3, 4), (4, 3)  3

1 5
 q  1 p  1   4
6 6 [ Mean  4, Var (X)  (Given)]
3
Let X denote the number of successes in 7 throws of a pair
of dice. The X is a binomial variate with parameters n = 7 and
p = 1/6 such that
4
Now, npq 3 1 1 2
   q   p  1 
1 5
r 7 r np 4 3 3 3
P (X  r)  7 Cr     , r  0,1, 2,...7 ... (i)
6 6
(i) Probability of no success [  1  q]
0 70 7
7 1 5 5 Putting p = 2/3 in np = 4, we get
= P (X = 0)  C 0        [Using (i)]
6 6 6
(ii) Probability of 6 successes 2
n 4n6
6 76
3
1 5
 P(X  6)  7 C 6     [Using (i)]
6 6 Thus, we have
= 35 (1/6)7
(iii) Probability of at least 6 successes = P (X  6) 2 1
n  6, p  and q 
= P (X = 6) + P (X = 7) 3 3
6 7 6 7 0
1 5 1 5
 7 C6      7 C7     [Using (i)] r 6 r
6 6 6 6 2 1
 P (X = r) = nCr pr qn–r  P (X = r) = 6Cr     ,
6 7 6 5  3 3
1 5 1  1   35 1   1 
 7 .               
6 6 6 6  6 6 6 r = 0, 1, 2, ..., 6
(iv) Probability of at most 6 successes = P (X  6)
Now, P (X 1) = 1 – P (X < 1)
= 1 – P (X > 6)
= 1 – P (X = 7)  P (X 1) = 1 – P (X = 0)
7 0
1 5
 1  7 C7     [Using (i)] 2 1
0 6
1
6
1 728
6 6  P(X  1)  1  6 C0      1     1  
 3   3  3 729 729
7
1
 1  
6

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