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2020-01-23 Poker Lecture #8

Introduction to the Theory & Practice of Poker Professor Avi Rubin Johns Hopkins University
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
23 views51 pages

2020-01-23 Poker Lecture #8

Introduction to the Theory & Practice of Poker Professor Avi Rubin Johns Hopkins University
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Introduction to the Theory &

Practice of Poker
Lecture #8
January 23, 2020
Last night’s tourney
• 178 players entered
• Lasted 3.5 hours
• I did not win a single hand (had one chop)
• Final table, please stand up!
• Winner: Shehrya Haris

• Special note: Qualified in both satellites


• Freda Zhou, Sam Lebowitz, Claudia Moncaliano
Meta game
• Should you ever show your hand?
• Simple answer is no
• You might be providing more information than you think
• If you show a strong hand when someone folds
• You eliminate some uncertainty they had about whether you were bluffing
• They may more correctly label you as TAG
• If you show that you folded a strong hand
• Because you are trying to prove how good a player you are
• First, you shouldn’t let them know if you are a good player
• Second, now you will get bullied by the good players
• You don’t want anyone to know that you can make good lay downs
• you want them to be afraid to bluff you because they think you’re such a moron that you might always call them.
• Advanced move:
• The “accidental show your cards on purpose”
• Some pros make a living with meta-play
• Table talk
• Selectively showing to advance a particular image
There are 2 rules for success in poker
1. Never reveal everything you know
Physical tells
• I’m not a huge fan of using tells
• Too many books
• Too many players fake them
• Tells are specific to individuals
• Bet sizing tells
• Bet strong when weak, and vice versa
• Some commonly known tells
• Stare hard at someone when weak
• Hand shakes when strong
• Be sure hand doesn’t always shake
• Sit back in chair and cross arms when strong
• Chit chat a lot and seem comfortable when strong
• Take sip from water bottle when bluffing
Tilt
• Tilt is real
• Even very good players go on tilt
• Player loses a one outer for half his stack
• On next play, after a 3-bet goes all in
• Happens all the time
• Ideal situation
• You lose a hand that should put you on tilt
• You pick up a monster next hand
• Act like you are making a tilting large bet
• When you feel yourself tilt in cash game
• Get up, walk away, take a break
• Avoid inclination to win it all back
• When you tile in a tournament
• Try to play tighter for a while
• Force yourself to be under control
• Recognize that you might make bad decisions
Poker Etiquette
Live play
Live games
• Moving chips forward is a bet
• Acting in turn, not out of turn
• Out of turn bets are binding unless action changes
• One hand penalty in a casino – and one round if repeated
• Pace of play
• Calling clock
• Revealing hand in order
• In tournaments All In players must turn over cards when action is complete
• In cash games you do not need to show if all in before hand is over
• Slow rolling
At the table
• One chip rule
• One chip is a call
• No string bets
• Announcing bets
• Oral statement is binding
• Table talk
• Heads up to get a read
• Usually not allowed to talk about your hand in tournaments - controversial
• “Will you show me if I fold”
• Angling – bad form
• E.g. getting someone to fold the best hand by misrepresenting your hand
• Pretending a raise (mixed in big chip) was accidental
• Talking over someone who is making a tough decision
• Telling bad beat stories
• Nobody cares
• Saying what you folded
• Nobody cares
More etiquette
• Protect your cards
• Card protector
• Use a chip
• Exposed cards
• Don’t splash the pot
• Don’t say what you had
• Even if action is closed, don’t say what you folded
• Keep cards on the table at all times
• Keep big denomination chips in front or on top
• Total stack amount should be clear & visible
• Hit & run
• Know the game you’re in
And more etiquette
• Maintain good hygiene
• Actually a big deal & often a problem in some casinos
• Tipping in live cash games & at end of tourney
• How to deal with a newbie who doesn’t know & doesn’t tip
• Checking it down - collusion
• Playing with friends in cash games
• In tournaments
• ”I raise $50”
• Does that mean you raise it to $50 total, or $50 on top? Be clear.
• Don’t show your cards to your neighbor when you fold
• “Show one show all” rule
• Rabbit chasing in home games
• In chopped pots, player out of position gets extra chip (if any)
And even more etiquette
• Don’t help the dealer
• Dealing with disputes
• Making side pots
• Instructing players on action
• Let the dealer do their job
• Exception: clueless dealers (often found in charity tournaments)
• Don’t “help” in disputes that don’t involve you
• Third man walking
• Calling the floor
• Don’t give lessons
• Don’t tap the glass
• Don’t belittle bad play (encourage it)
• Arrange your chips in stacks of 20
How much money?
Behavior
• Next level:
• Act the same regardless of the outcome
• Someone hits a 2 outer against you
• You hit a 2 outer to double up
• Same demeaner, same expression
• You will look like a total pro
• Don’t jump up and get excited when you win
• Remember the other player has just lost
Shades and Hoodies?
• My opinion only
• This opinion may be wrong & unpopular
• Shades will not hide whether you are bluffing
• They actually convey immaturity and insecurity
• Some people use them as a crutch
• You might actually be at a disadvantage
• Don’t see the board and the other players as well
• Might miss out on a visual cue of another player
• Silly tell: some people wear sunglasses on their head
• And bring them down to their eyes when they have a strong hand
• I’ve seen this!
• Don’t wear shades at the table, please!
Busted
Play after the turn
Considerations on the turn
• On the turn
• 4 of 5 community cards already dealt
• Only 1 card left to come
• How many players remain in the hand
• And types of players
• Your position relative to other players
• Who has the betting lead
• Pot size and remaining effective stacks
• Dry or wet board
• Ranges considering pre- and post- flop action
• If you are ahead on the turn, you will likely stay ahead
• E.g. player behind is ½ as likely to make their hand than on the flop
Comparing Flop odds to Turn odds

• Hard to get pot odds to draw


• Any significant bet should price out draws
• Unless implied odds are huge
Implied odds and board texture
• Certain draws are more likely to get paid off than others.
• Compare two hands:
• Hand A: Board:

• Hand B: Board:

• In hand A, if you hit your nut flush draw, will you get paid?
• In hand B, if you hit your straight will you get paid?
• What if it is the ten of spades? (compare to the ten or five of clubs)
• Lesson: be more inclined to draw to disguised hands on the turn
More implied odds on turn
• The order that flush draws arrive is important
• Say that flop is and turn is

• You will be given less credit for a flush if ten of spades comes on river

• But if flop came and then turn is

• Opponent is likely to believe you hit your flush if spade on river

• The reason: Players call the flop more often with a flush draw!
• Always ask yourself about your opponent’s holdings on each street
Reasons to bet the turn
• You have a hand, and you checked the flop
• You checked flop for deception, and now time to get some value
• Or you had nothing on the flop, but improved on the turn
• You don’t have a hand and you checked the flop
• Two checks is very weak – sometimes you have to stab at the pot
• Double-barreled continuation bet
• You continuation bet on the flop and were called
• Now put another bet in to try to take it down
• Many players ”Float” on the flop, so double barrel sometimes
• You want to charge the draw
• Deny them the pot odds to call
• Have them make a mistake by calling
• Get your money in while ahead
Reasons to bet the turn
• Before the cooler comes
• You don’t want river to scare them
• River can complete draws bigger than your actual hand
• Set up the all-in on the river
• You have a monster and need to build a pot
• Or, you’re building up a pot to set up the all in bluff
• (don’t do this often and not against calling stations)
Hand example
Turn Decision
Your hand:
• Setup:
• Blinds $10 - $20
• You’re in the big blind
• You are LAG, and table knows it
• Other players are mix of loose and tight
• You are very deep stacked, at $6,200
• Player C, in third position is a fine player, mostly TAG, $3,400 stack
• Small blind seems a little whacky
You: LAG, $6,200
Player C: TAG, $3,400

Action SB: Whacky


Your hand:

• First two players fold


• Player C limps for $20
• Everyone folds to SB who calls $10
• Pot is $60
• You check (only reasonable play)
• Flop is

• You flop a straight! Second best possible hand right now


• Well disguised
• Small blind bets $60
• What do you do? Call or raise?
You: LAG, $6,200
Player C: TAG, $3,400

Considerations SB: Whacky


Your hand:

• Pot is $60 and $60 to call Flop:


• SB representing strength, Player C called pre-flop in early position
• A raise might get called
• You are a LAG, so your raise might not be taken seriously
• There is a flush draw on board
• Against 2 opponents need to charge them if one of them is drawing to flush

• Based on these considerations:


• You raise to $200
• Pot is now $320
• Player C calls; SB folds
• Pot is now $520
You: LAG, $6,200
Player C: TAG, $3,400

Action SB: Whacky


Your hand:

• Apparently SB was stabbing at the pot or had small value Flop:

• Player C must be strong here


Pot: $520
• He is a TAG and called $200 raise
• He limped in early position
• C’s possible holdings:
• An overpair : Possible, but not likely given that he only limped pre-flop
• A set : Extremely unlikely – would have raised on the fop for the same reasons
we raised
• Two pair : Possible, but not likely – would have had to limp with very weak
hand in early position.
• Top pair : Not likely. Means early position limp with A6, 67 or 86, followed by
a call of a bet and a raise. 56 might make sense – pair and straight draw.
You: LAG, $6,200
Player C: TAG, $3,400

Action SB: Whacky


Your hand:

• C’s possible holdings (cont.): Flop:


• A flush draw : possible. E.g. AJs or KQs in spades.
• Strong flush draw and overcards justifies calling raise Pot: $520
• A straight draw : possible. He could have limped with A5s, 56, 54 and then
called after hitting an open ended straight draw with a pair, or even just draw
• A made straight : if he has 57, we are going to lose a lot of money

• Most likely are straight and flush draws, perhaps with a pair as well
• Two pair and overpair hands are less likely
• Turn card is
• What do you do?
You: LAG, $6,200
Player C: TAG, $3,400

Considerations SB: Whacky


Your hand:

• You probably have the best hand Board:


• He is most likely drawing
Pot: $520
• The turn is a safe card
• If a spade comes on the river
• You will check, and he will most often bet if he has it and check back if he
doesn’t
• You might get bluffed, although he might fear you have the flush
• So you won’t get paid on the river – thus need to make money on the turn
• If a spade does not come on the river
• You will value bet but probably won’t get called
• You bet $600, slightly over Pot
• Player C calls. Pot becomes $1,720
You: LAG, $6,200
Player C: TAG, $3,400

Action SB: Whacky


Your hand:

• River card is Board:

Pot: $1,720
• Worst possible card in the deck.
• Hits flush draw
• Hits straight for chop if he has a 5
• A classic ”cooler” card
• You check. He checks.
• Both are scared the other has a flush
• He turns over for two pair
• You win
• The cooler cost you money on the river
Lesson from this hand
• If you are strong on the flop
• And turn card is safe

• Bet!

• Beware the cooler


Leverage on the turn
• Concept introduced by “The Professor” Howard Lederer
• Brother of Annie Duke
• The idea is that when facing bet on the turn
• You don’t know how big a bet you will face on the river
• You don’t really know the pot odds you’re getting
• You might be willing to call turn bet for X, but not X+Y with unknown
river bet, Y
• Facing a bet of X on the river after checked turn, you know the full
amount you are risking
Example hand
Demonstrating concept of Leverage on the Turn
Hand example – leverage
• A $5-$10 game
• Players: tight, smart, aggressive
• Your stack: $660
• You are 4th to act, and three players fold
• Your hand in middle position:
• You raise to $30
• Player in 6th position calls
• Big blind calls $20
• Pot is $95, and you’ll be in middle position after the flop
Your hand:

Hand example – leverage Pot: $95

• Flop comes:
• Not a bad flop for you
• Big blind checks, you bet $80
• Player in 6th position folds
• Big blind calls
• Pot is $255, you have $550 left. Big blind has you covered.
• Turn card is:

• Big blind bets $150


• What do you do???
Your hand:

Hand example – leverage Board:

• Considerations: Pot: $405


Turn bet: $150
• If he has a A, you are in bad shape
• If he does not have an A, you are probably way ahead
• Problem:
• Big blind knows if he’s bluffing or not
• You don’t know if he’s bluffing or not
• He knows that if you call his bluff, he does not have to bet on the river
• But you don’t know if he’s going to bet on the river
• I repeat: You don’t know if he will bet on the river
• And he does know
• You cannot risk calling the turn and him shoving the river
• He has leverage on the turn – the unknown action on the river
Reasons to check the turn
• After continuation bet on the flop
• Your flop bet was called, now you may give up on the hand
• As a trap
• You must mix up bets and check on the flop
• Checking turn sometimes when strong adds deception to your game
• Only betting turn after checking flop when you hit turn gives away your hand
• As a de-leveraging play
• You have a hand, and if you bet, opponent will call due to leverage
• He might call river bet but not turn bet
• You have modest hand, and no draws are on the board
• Small hand – small pot
• You have a bluff catching hand
• Strong enough to beat a bluff, but not strong enough to bet for value
• Pick the right opponents for this one
Example hand
Turn strategy
• Setup:
• High stakes game: $25 - $50
• Player E
• Loose pre-flop aggressive post-flop
• Your image
• Good player who likes to trap
• Your hand:

• Players A-D fold, Player E raises to $200


• Do you fold, call, raise?
• Player E raises to $200
• Do you fold, call, raise?
• Considerations:
• 4 BB is on the large size
• You have position on player E
• A medium pair is too strong to fold
• Stacks are very deep > 240 BB
• Implied odds are great if you hit a monster
Your hand:

• Action: You call $200, Button & blinds fold


• Heads up: Pot is $475
• Flop:

• Player E bets $350. Pot is now $825. What do you do?


• Player E bets to $350
• Do you call or raise?
• Considerations:
• Dry board – no need to deny draws
• Two scenarios:
• He has something
• Overpair, QQ, JJ, TT or A9
• He has nothing
• Pair below nines, squadoosh Your hand:
• Ignore the possibility of 99
• If he has that - ”That’s poker” and you go broke
Flop:

Pot: $825
• 2 possible hand types
• He has nothing or something
• 2 possible plays: call or raise

• He has nothing and we raise:


• He will fold & we win pot
• Hand ends here
• He has nothing and we call:
• We may win more money
• He could hit one of his overcards on the turn
• He could hit a lower set Your hand:
• Say, 10% of the time he improves on turn and can call another bet
• If we call $350 that creates a pot of $1,175
• Say we bet $700 on the turn, on average we pick up another $70
Flop:
• He has something and we raise
• He has JJ type hand
• Say we raise $1,100, calling his $350 and adding another $750 Pot: $825
• Say he calls 1/3 of the time, then pot is $2,675
• Blank on the turn, will he call $1,200 bet?
• Maybe 1/3 of the time. We win extra 750 on flop & $400 on turn, so extra $1,150
• He has something and we call
• Our call makes pot $1,175
• No draws on board, our range:
• Top pair or middle pair like 88
• Made hand but not too strong
• Say turn is blank
• If he bets, we raise and win pot
• If he checks, we bet, and he calls
• But he won’t call river bet without improving
• Either way we win another bet, say $700 Your hand:
• Breaking down the scenarios
Flop:

Pot: $825
• Even if ”nothing” is more likely
• Amount we win if “something”
• Greatly favors raising to calling
• You raise to $1,100
• He calls the extra $750 Your hand:

• Pot is now $2,675, his stack is $10,900


• You have him covered Flop:

• Turn:

• He checks. What do you do?


• Considerations
• Re-evaluate his range
• He called raise on the flop
• But checked the turn
• Possibilities
• Overpair
• A9, K9, Q9
• 99 seems a little more likely now
• Also, T8 and 86 are possible, semi-bluff and calling with open ender
• You are ahead of all these except KK and 99 Your hand:

• Goal is to get his whole stack


• Half pot bet gives draws wrong price to call Board:
• Might get called by some of his holdings
• You bet $1,400 Pot: $2,675

• He raises to $5,500, Pot is now $9,575, and $4,100 to call.


• He has $5,400 left. What do you do?
• Considerations
• Folding is not an option
• Don’t fold sets on dry boards!
• If you call:
• Pot will be $13,675
• Would you call a river shove?
• If so, pot would be $19,000
• It would be $5,400 to call
• So, pot odds of almost 4-1 with middle set
• If you can’t fold river, and pot is larger than stacks Your hand:
• Then shove on the turn
• Charge him the maximum to hit his river card Board:
• Avoids a scare card that might freeze your action

• You push all in & he folds Pot: $9,575


• Looks like he was bluffing all along
• Surprising, but you won the maximum
• Lessons:
• Always evaluated ranges
• Base decisions on:
• What you think he has
• Pot sizes & stack sizes
• Most profitable scenario
• E.g. raising vs. calling & expected action
• Don’t fold sets when board does not:
• Have straight, flush
• Have a pair on board
• Think about how to win the maximum when you have a monster

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