Adama Science and Technology University
School of Electrical Engineering and Computing
Dep’t. of Electronics and Communication Engineering
Probability and Random Process (ECEg-3103)
Chapter 2 :
BASIC CONCEPTS OF PROBABILITY THEORY
Outline
Introduction Sample Space and Events
Axioms and Properties of Probability
Conditional Probability
Independence of Events
Total Probability
Bayes' Theorem
Introduction: Sample Space and Events
Events can in general be
classified as:
• Random-the event may or may not
occur
Certain- the occurrence of the event is predictable
Impossible-the event will never occur
Probability is the study of randomness and
uncertainty.
Probability theory provides powerful tools to
explain, model and design real world physical 27
systems with some degree of uncertainty.
Some application areas of probability theory
include:
• Data communication systems
• Wireless communication systems
• Control systems, etc…
Sample Space and Events
i. Random Experiment
A random experiment is an experiment in
which the outcome varies in an
unpredictable manner when the experiment
is repeated under the same conditions.
Examples:
• Tossing a coin
• Rolling a die
• Picking a card from a deck
i. Sample Space
The sample space is the set of all possible
outcomes of a random experiment.
Sample Space and Events Cont’d….
iii. Event
An event is any subset of the sample of the
sample space, Ω
Events can be represented by A, B, C, ……
Examples of Discrete Sample Space
Example-1:
Consider a random experiment of rolling a die
once.
i. Sample Space {1, 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 }
Sample Space and Events Cont’d….
ii. Some possible events
An event of obtaining even numbers
A {2, 4, 6}
An event of obtaining numbers less than 4
B {1, 2, 3}
Example-2:
Consider a random experiment of flipping a
fair coin twice.
i. Sample space
{ H H , HT, TH, TT}
Sample Space and Events Cont’d….
ii. Some possible events
An event of getting exactly one head
A {HT , TH}
An event of getting at least one tail
B {HT , TH, TT}
An event of getting at most one tail
C {HH , HT , TH}
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Axioms and Properties of Probability
Probability is a rule that assigns a number to each event
A in the sample space, Ω.
In short , the probability of any event A is given by
n(A)
P( A)
n()
were
n( A) - is the number of elements in the event A
n() - is the number of elements in the sample
space
Axioms and Properties of Probability Cont’d…..
The probability of an event A is a real number
which satisfies the following axioms.
1. Probability is a non-negative number, i.e.,
P( A) 0
2. Probability of the sample space is unity, i.e.,
P() 1
From axioms (1) and (2), we obtain
0 P( A) 1
Axioms and Properties of Probability Cont’d…..
3. Probability of the union of two mutually
exclusive (disjoint) events is the sum of
the probability of the events, i.e.,
We can generalize axiom (3) for n pairwise
mutually exclusive (disjoint) events.
If A1, A2, A3, …, An is a sequence of n
pairwise mutually exclusive (disjoint)
events in the sample space Ω such that Ai
Axioms and Properties of Probability Cont’d…..
Axioms and Properties of Probability Cont’d…..
Axioms and Properties of Probability Cont’d…..
Axioms and Properties of Probability Cont’d…..
Axioms and Properties of Probability Cont’d…..
Axioms and Properties of Probability Cont’d…..
Axioms and Properties of Probability Cont’d…..
Axioms and Properties of Probability Cont’d…..
Axioms and Properties of Probability Cont’d…..
Conditional Probability Cont’d…….
Conditional Probability Cont’d…….
Conditional Probability Cont’d…….
Conditional Probability Cont’d…….
Conditional Probability Cont’d…..
Conditional Probability Cont’d…..
Independence of Events
Independence of Events Cont’d……
Independence of Events Cont’d……
Exercises
Cont.….
Thank You!
