150 ¢ PROBABILITY ‘Theory and Problems for Senior High Math PROBABILITY Definitions 1. An experiment is an activity with an observable result, eg, roll a dic and record the number. 2. An outcome is one particular result of an experiment, e¢., rolling a 6 3. A sample space of an experiment is the set ofall possible outcomes of the experiment, 8, $= (1,2,3,4,5,6} 4. An event isa subset of the sample space containing one or more possible outcomes of the experiment c.g. rolling an even number: E, = {2,4,6} rolling athree: E, = {3} 5. An equally likely outcome is an element of the sample space in which each outcome has the same chance of happening, 6 IF is an event of the sample space $ which contains equally likely outcomes, then the probability that pean umber of ways & can occur {otal number of outcomes in the sample space This is writen as P(E) = (4). o< Ae) <1 nfs)" P(E) = | means the event is certain. P(E) = 0 means the event is impossible. periment # Sample Space Toss a coin head, tail} (each outcome is equally likely) Toss two coins {ih hut} (each outcome isnot equally likely) Toss two coins = (hh, hth, 1¢} (each outcome is equally likely) Gender of three children 5, = (bbb, bg, beg, ggg} (each outcome not equally likely) Gender of three children {6bb, bbe. bgb, gbb, geb, gbg, beg, gaz} (each outcome is equally likely) Note: An experiment may have more than one sample space like S;,Sy and S4,S, in the above example. However, there is only one sample space which has equally likely outcomes Sor a specific experiment. Copyright © by Crescent Beach Publishing All rights reserved. Cancopy © has ruled that this Book isnot covered by ‘their licensing agreement. No par of this publication may be reproduced without explict permission of the publisher. RR eee AOA ARAMAARARARRARAARARARAAL‘Theory and Problems for Senior High Math PROBABILITY ¢ 151 Example2: Four cards, an ace of hearts, an ace of diamonds, an ace of spades and an ace of clubs are shuffled and placed down on a desk. One card is tured over. Determine which of the following events has equally likely outcomes: a) {red card, black card) b) {ace of hearts, not ace of hearts} Solution: a) There are two red aces and two black aces so these are equally likely events. b) Ace of hearts is one card, not ace of hearts consists of three cards, so these are not equally likely events. Example 3: A coin is flipped three times. Find the probability that we select two heads and one tail Solution: Sample space S= hhh, hht, hth, ahh, th, cht, htt, at}, with n(S) = 8 The event of two heads and one tails = (hh, th thh,}, with n(E) = 3 mE) _ 3 mS) 8 Therefore, P(E) Example 4: Consider the problem in which a die is tossed and then a coin is flipped a) Determine a sample space of equally likely events. b) Determine the event of obtaining an even number on the die and a head on the coin, ©) What is the probability of obtaining an even number on the die and a head on the coin? Solution: a) Sample space (1, A2, 43, 44, AS, H6, 11, 2,8, 14, 15,16}, with m(S) = 12 rb) Event £={h2,le4, 46), with n(E) = 3 mE) _ 3 1 nS) 12 4 ©) P(E) Example 5; A man has three white shirts, two blue shirts, and one yellow shirt, In the dark, he packs two shirts into a suitcase. a) Determine a sample space of equally likely events b) Determine an event of packing two shirts of the same colour. ©) Determine the probability that the two shirts in the suitcase are of the same colour. Solution: a) Sample space $= {wLw2, w1w3, w2w3, wIbI, w1b2, w2b1, w262, w3b1, w362, wly,w2y, w3y, B12, bly, B2y}, with n(S) = 15 b) Event = {wlw2, wlw3, w2w3, 6162}, with n(E) = 4 9 me BOS ‘Copyright © by Crescent Beach Publishing — All rights reserved. Cancopy © has ruled that this Book s nat covered by their licensing agreement. No par of this publication may be reproduced without explicit permission of the publisher.152_¢ PROBABILITY NOTES/ WORK AREA ‘Theory and Problems for Senior High Math QUESTIONS 1. Selecting a black card from a deck of eards is a/an a) event Bb) outcome —_c) experiment d)_ sample space 2. The combining of 2 or more outcomes is a/an ) outcome b) event —_€) experiment) sample space 3. An experiment has how many result(s) a) b) 2 ©) ormore 4) Lor2 4. The result of an experiment is alan a) event) outcome —_¢) sample space) probability 5. The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment is aan a) event) outcome —_€) probability d) sample space 6. Rolling a pair of dice could best be described as a/an a) event Bb) outcome —_€) experiment d) sample space 7. The probability of selecting a red non-face card from a deck of cards is 5 a b) \ 1 a B 2 8. The sample space for student test scores areas follows: S= (BA's, 6B's,9C's, 4 D's, 3E' fone student's testis selected at random, what is the probability of selecting a B or better? 6 9 16 £. 2. ay eS a) 3 2 35 Nos 3 26 9. Ifthe sample space $= {a,,a,,a, ....,4,}, with each value in the sample space equally likely, then P(a,) is 1 1 a a) b) gt a So ” a a a, Copyright © by Crescent Beach Publishing — Al righs reserved. Cancopy © has riled that this book is mot covered by ‘heir licensing agreement. No par of this publication may be reproduced without explictt permission ofthe publisher, Jao doo nha ae a eee ee sea AAaAhAAAaaae‘Theory and Problems for Senior High Math QUESTIONS 17. Classify the following as independent or dependent events. a) The probability of a person passing Math 12, P(M) = 0.80, and the probability of passing History 12, PU) = 0.90, and the probability of passing both, P(M and fH) = 0.72 b) The probability of snowing in Edmonton on Christmas day is 0.6, the probability of snowing on New Year's Eve is 0.7, and the probability of it snowing on both days is 0.45. ¢) Drawing 2 Kings in a row from a deck of cards without replacing the first card, 4d) Drawing 2 Kings in a row from a deck of cards by replacing the first card before drawing the second card ©) Being a beach lifeguard and getting a tan. ) Having blonde hair and having a high LQ. ) Smoking one pack of cigarettes a day and getting lung cancer. 18, Two independent events have probabilities of 0.2 and 0.4. What is the probability that a) neither event occurs? b) only one of the events occurs? 19. Experiment: A fair coin is tossed 3 times. Sample space: $= {hhh kt, hh, th, rh, th, het, ) Events: Ufirst toss is tails} {second toss is tails} C= {exactly two tails are tossed in a row} a) Are A and B independent? —b) Are A and C independent? ©) Are Band C independent? 20. Experiment: Two dice are rolled and the sum is recorded. Event A: A sum of 2,7 or 11 Event B: An odd number. Event C: A sum of , 7 or 10. Event D: An even number. a) Are A and B independent? —b) Are B and C independent? ©) Are A and D independent? dl) Are C and D independent? Copyright © by Crescent Beach Publishing ~All rights reserved. Cancopy © has riled that this book is mot covered by PROBABILITY ¢ 155 NOTES / WORK AREA their licensing agreement. No part ofthis publication may be reproduced without explicit permission of the publisher.156 ¢ PROBABILITY Theory and Problems for Senior High Math MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS (The Addition Rule) ‘Two events are mutually exclusive if they cannot occur at the same time, eg,, if die is rolled, the event 4 = {I} and B = (2) are mutuall ly exclusive since it is not possible for a die to be | and 2 on the same roll Mutually exclusive means 4. B = ¢ P(A B)= P(A and 8) = 0 and P(A or B) = P(A) + PCB) Example |; Ata political rally, there are 25 members of the Reform Party, 22 members of the NDP, and 13 members of the Liberal Party. Ifa person attending this rally is selected at random, find the Probability that he/she is a member of either the Reform Party or the Liberal Party Solution: = {member of Reform Party} and L = {member of Liberal Party} ‘Two events are not mutually exclusive if they can both occur at the same time. A person cannot be a member of both the Reform and Liberal Parties so the events R and L are mutually exclusive, P(Rort)= A(R) + Py = 25413 38 9 60°60 60 30 Not mutually exclusive means 4.0. B #6 and P(A 7 B) = Pld and B) + 0 and P(A of B) = P(A) + P(B) ~ PCA and B) Example 2: A card is drawn from a deck of cards. Find the probability that the card that is drawn is an ace Solution: P(Ace or Heart) Note: ora heart, PlAce) + P(Heart) ~ Place of Hearts) B 1 4 o 52 2 52 B Understand the difference between mutually exclusive events and independent events Mutually exclusive events must have (A and B)=@ i.e. P(A and B) =0 Independent events have P(A and B) = P(A)- P(B). Thus, mutually exclusive events are not independent events untess P(A) = 0 or P(B) = 0 dds of winning are m to n (orm: n) means P(win) = —™— , (i The odds of winning are m to n ( mena Pte) ~ ES Phioe = —— During the flu season, you might see ten patients in a day. One would have the flu and other nine would have something else. So the probability of the flu in your patient pool would one out of ten. The odds would be one to nine Copyright © ty Crescent Beach Publishing — Alrights reserved. Cancopy © has ruled that this book isnot covered by ‘their licensing agreement. No part ofthis publication may be reproduced without explict permission ofthe publisher.VOSSSSSHSSSDSTIFFFITIFTIIFFSHEEITIFSSSHO HH OSSSHNNOOOe”” ‘Theory and Problems for Senior High Math QUESTIONS 21. Which of the following events are mutually exclusive? a) Both rain and sunshine on July 1, 2000. b) A baseball player getting a hit and a home run when at bat. ©) A baseball player hitting a home run and a walk when at bat. 4) Being female and being Prime Minister of Canada €) Getting an odd number and a number greater than 5 when rolling, die 1) Rolling a die and getting a prime number and an even number. 2) Getting a face card and a seven from a single draw from a deck of cards hh) Getting a face card and heart from a single draw from a deck of cards 22. A single card is drawn from a deck of card. Find the probability of selecting a) aseven or a hear. b) aspade or a diamond 23. In student council, there are 15 grade twelve students and 9 grade eleven students. 8 of the grade twelve students are female, and 6 of the grade cleven students are female. Ifa student is selected at random from student council, find the probability that: 8) astudent is in grade eleven or a female. ) astudent is in grade twelve or a male. 24, At Golden Secondary, there are 500 students of which 300 are female 200 females and 150 males take the bus. Ia student is selected at random, find the probability that the student is: 1) male or takes the bus. b) female or does not take the bus. 25. Man of War and Secretariat are in a horse race. If Man of War has @ ‘two-fifths chance of winning the race and Secretariat has a one-third chance of winning, what is the probability that one of these two horses wins the race? 26. Sue has a two-fifths chance of hitting the bull’s eye in an archery contest, and Trisha has a one-third chance. What is the probability that the bull’s, hit by at least one of these two girls? PROBABILITY ¢ 157 NOTES/ WORK AREA ‘Copyright © by Crescent Beach Publishing ~All rights rexerved. Cancopy © has ruled that this book is not covered by their licensing agreement. No part ofthis publication may be reproduced without explicit permission of the publisher.158 ¢ PROBABILITY NOTES/ WORK AREA 21, 29, 30. ‘Theory and Problems for Senior High Math ‘The odds in favor ofa first bylaw passing in Surrey Council are 7 to 4, the odds in favor of a second bylaw passing are 8 to 3, and the odds in favor of both passing are 5 to 6. What are the odds that at least one of the bylaw passes? Iftwo dice are rolled, find the probability that: 8) the first die shows a 3 or the sum of two dice is 6 or 7. b)_ the sum of two dice is 10 or one die shows atleast a6. 40% of students take Math in Grade 12. 35% of students take History in Grade 12 15% of students take both Math and History, 18) What is the probability that a grade 12 student, chosen at random, takes Math but not History? b) What is the probability that a grade 12 student, chosen at random, takes neither Math nor History? P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B) a) Show P(A or B or C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) ~ P(A and B) P(A and ©) ~ P(B and C) + P(A and B and C) b) What is the probability that at least one 4 will appear with the roll of 3 dice? Copyright © by Crescent Beach Publishing — All rights served. Cancopy © has ruled that this book is wot covered by ‘heir licensing agreement. No part ofthis publication may be reproduced without explicit permission ofthe publisher. we nnn nnnnnaaeSUT TTTVIT TTT TTT ITTV TTT T UTE TTTTTE ETT TSTS! ‘Theory and Problems for Senior High Math PROBABILITY ¢ 159 (COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS ‘The complement of an event 4 is the set of outcomes in the sample space that is not in event A. Note: A is read as “complement of 4.” Pd) + PA) = C4 | a re (@ Anevent and its complement are mutually exclusive events. An event and its complement cannot occur at the same time. (ii) An event and its complement make up the entire sample space. a Example 1: If'two coins are tossed, is getting two tails the complement of getting two heads? Solution: No the compiement is getting at least one tail, S= hh, ht, th, tt) —— Aa Example 2: Ifa card is randomly selected from a deck of cards, what is the probability it is not a face card? Solution: Let F= face card. ‘There are 12 face cards (4 kings, 4 queens, 4 jacks), so PF) 12 40 10 Then, PF) =1-m) =1- B= 2-8 The Classic Birthday Problem: To find the probability that n people have the same birthday: ‘= Since there are m people and 365 days in a year, there are 365" possible ways that people can have their birthday ‘+ Ifmpeople have distinct birthdays, then the first person has 365 choices, the next 364, 363, etc, Thus, we have 365 364: 363....(365-2+1) = yo5P, ways of having no two people with the same birthday ‘+ P(same birthday) P (no two people with the same birthday) P, + Therefore, P(E)= 1-28 PO see Example 3: A group of 20 people are selected at random. What is the probability that at least two of them have the same birthday? eB ag 365" «365% chance of two people having the same birthday in a group of 20 people. Solution: — P(E) = P (20 different birthdays) = = 0411 = 41.1% ‘Copyright © by Crescent Beach Publishing ~ All rights reserved. Cancopy © has ruled tha this book is not covered by their licensing agreement. No par of this publication may be reproduced without explicit permission of tae publisher.160 ¢ PROBABILITY NOTES/ WORK AREA 32. 33, 34. 38 36, 31, u 38. 39, 40. a Theory and Problems for Senior High Math QUESTIONS Find the complement of each event: a) selecting a diamond from a deck of cards. b) selecting a good teacher. ©) selecting a day of the year on which it rains. 4) selecting a female student in your Math class. €)selecti a team the Vancouver Canucks beat this year. A family has three children. What is the probability of at least one of the three children being a girl? (Assume there is an equal chance of ‘each child being a boy oF gir), Suppose P(A) =x and P(B)=y and A and B are independent. Find P(A and B) A dics rolled 3 times. Find the probability of getting at least one 4. ‘The weather forecast states that we have an 80% chance of no rain for each of the next 5 days. What is the probability of having at least one day of rain in the next 5 days? A doctor's office has 7 women and 5 men waiting, If3 patients are randomly selected, what is the probability that at least one is a man? ICS cards are dealt to a man in a poker game, what is the probability of the man having at least one card from the heart suit? A coin is tossed 6 times. What is the probability of getting at least 2 heads? A baseball player is batting 0.300. What is the probability of getting at least 2 hits in 5 times at bat? ) A group of 30 students is selected at random. What is the probability that at least two of them have the same birthday? b) IF8 students are selected at random, what is the probability that at least two have a birthday in the same month? ©) What number of people selected randomly is needed so that the probability of two or more people having the same birthday is, greater than 50%? 4d) An clevator with 8 passengers stops at 30 floors of a high-rise building. Find the probability that (@_ no two people get offon the same floor. (id) at least two people get off on the same floor. Assume that all floors have an equally likely chance of discharging passengers. Copyright © by Crescent Beach Publishing ~All rights reserved, Cancopy © has ruled that this book isnot covered by ther licensing agreement. No part ofthis publication may be reproduced without explicit permission of the publisher. aaaanecaannamenamOOOHANAAHRANAATAHAHNNLHTHHHNLARAALL NT‘Theory and Problems for Senior High Math PROBABILITY ¢ 161 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY The conditional probal y P(A | B) is the probability that event A occurs, knowing B has occurred. Note: P(A |B) is tead as “probability of 4 given B.” PAB) _ P(Aand B) PCB) P(B) Reason: > Question ~ What is the probability that something is in A if we know itis in B? Definition: P(A |B) ‘Answer ~ ‘The only chance of it being in 4, if we know itis in B, is the intersection of 4 and B. P(Aand B) ote: ind B are dependent events, P(A| By = PAand B) Note: if A a pendent events, Pa |B) = PET IA and B are independent events, P(A |B) - PiAand B) _ POA) PCB) _ py 4y PB) PCB) Example 1 A couple has two children. a) Find the probability the two children are girs b) Find the probability the two children are gitls, given at least one is @ gir Solution, , a) Sample space $= {bb, bg. gb, gg}, with m(S) = 4 Event A= iggl, with n(4) = 1 mA) _ 1 Therefore, jrlsy = MOF Potwo ite) = 5 = b) Method | (by basic reasoning) Sample space $= {bg, gb. gg}, with m(S) Event 4= {gg}, with n(4) = | Therefore, P(wo girls, given at least one is a gitl) = 5 Method 2 (by formal definition) Let A= (2 girls) PCA)= Play) Plg2)= 3354 B = {at least one girl} P(B) = P(b,) + P(b,)— P(b, and 6, )= p= 3 OF P(B)= 1-P(2boys) = 1- (4) = ¢ Pea|By= Patt) but 4 isa subset of B30 (A. B)= A PB) PA) ing ~All rights reserved. Cancopy © has ruled that this Book isnot covered by ther licensing agreenent. No part of this publication may be reproduced without explicit permission of the publisher.162_¢ PROBABILITY ‘Theory and Problems for Senior High Math b) Method 3 (by tree diagram) Istbranch 2nd banc Se branch (ionpossibie) first branch PQ2 girls | at least one girl) = 23 sum of possible branches Example 2 Let two coins be tossed. P(H)=% , Pu)=+ ‘What is the probability of 2 tails, given atleast one is a tail? Method 1 (by basic reasoning) P(wo tails) =f P(at least one tail) = 1 ~2 heads res 3-3-5 or = head/tail + tailéhead + taiVtail ~ 2 ba P(2 tails given at least one tail 3 5 Method 2 (by formal definition) Leta = (1t} P(A) 3A5 B= {atleast one tail} P(B) = P(t) + Plt,)~ Plt, and 1, P(A and B) = P(A) because A is a subset of B s P(a| py = 2408) _ Pldand 8) P(A) PUB) PB) PB) 8S Method 3 (by tree diagram) }— impastle) b tee 5 1 my = 2 Y ges Hi oh: 5 te ye Pw = 4" branch (two tals | at least one taity = branch __ sum of possible branches Copyright © by Crescent Beach Publishing — All rights reserved. Cancopy © has ruled that this book is wot covered by ‘ther licensing agreement. No part ofthis publication may be reproduced without explicit permission ofthe publisher. aananannanneeenananeenangganeneananreneenengggannnd annann‘Theory and Problems for Senior High Math PROBABILITY ¢ 163 QUESTIONS NOTES / WORK AREA. 41. If P(A) = 0.6, P(B) = 0.4, and P(A and B) = 0.2, determine: a) P(A|B) b) P(B| A) 42. ‘The following tree diagram represents an experiment consisting of two trials Determine: ue 2) AO) ‘ << b) PCD) ieveneanten © PICA) > oc 8 4) PUB) a p 43. A survey shows the following. Determine a) P(B|F) Bc by P(G|M) Bie [Gee Mewate [oo | fs ©) FIG) Foremae| 7 | 3 2 4) PM) 8) 7 [es fo» 44, Use and complete the table below to answer the following questions The probability of failing Math (Mf) is 16%, failing English (E) is 10%, and failing béth Math and English (M and E) is 6% Note: Pass Math (M), pass English (E) 0.16 1 a) P(E and i) b) P(E and M) = ©) P(E and M) = 8) P(Eand M) + P(E and) + P(E ond M) + AE ond 37 “Cipplgh 6 ty Cran Beak Pbliking Arig vacred. Conary © eared al is bok ina coerdby hr sng egrooen. No parte his uitoton yb Fopoded wih! exp pamison of he pur SSSIIIIFIODIIDIFITFIIDIIIIIIITIDITIFVGHTESIISF COTES ZOOSS164_¢ PROBABILITY Theory and Problems for Senior High Math NOTES/ WORK AREA i 45, 46. 47. ’ 48. 49. 50. ©) P(Eand M)+ P(E and M) ~) 1) P(EandM)+ P(E and if) = Pl ) P(E and M) ® PEL) = hy Peli) i) P(M|E) = oe &) PEI) » Let two coins be tossed. If P(h) = 0.6, PC of two heads, given at least one is a head? 0.4, what is the probability One of three cards is black on both sides, another is white on both sides, and the other is black on one side and white on the other. One card is selected at random and the side up is white. What is the probability that the other side is black? Suppose you throw a pair of dice, One is white and the other is black Let 7= total showing on both dice, and ” = number showing on the white die, Find P(7=8 | 7 = 3) ‘When rolling a pair of dice, what is the probability of getting two 4°s if itis known that at least one of the dice is a 4? Two dice, one white and one black, are tossed. If'it is known that the white die shows a number divisible by 3, what is the probability that the total is greater than 8? ‘The probability of winning a game is 0.6. If you play 5 times and win at least twice, what is the probability that you have exactly 4 wins? Copyright © by Crescent Beach Publishing ~All rights reserved. Cancopy © hs raled that this book ts not covered by ‘their licensing agreement. No part ofthis publication may be reproduced without explicit permission of the publisher, a a eee eee nnnVOORSSVSSSSSSSSSSSSSSTSSS SESE E EEE ESET EEESEETEEEEEEEETSE ‘Theory and Problems for Senior High Math PROBABILITY ¢ 165 BAYES’ THEOREM Bayes’ Formula provides a way to calculate P(A | B) directly ftom P(B| A). The formula is nothing more than a formal definition of conditional probability. Study the following proof, but pay even more attention to the examples that follow. Proof: PUA,OB) PCB) PBOA) P(A) P(A) PUBL A,) PUB) but P(B)= P(B AA) + PIB Ay) 4 coset BOA) = P(A) P(B| A,) + P(A,)- P(B| As) + + P(A,)- P(BIA,) P(A,|B)= but P(B|4,) > P(A, 0 B)= P(A): PCB A,) so P(A,|B) Substituting we get Bayes? Theorem: P(A,)-P(B/A, ) P(A) P(B|A,) PA BB) PEA) PLA) + PCAy)- PCB] Ay) +--+ PUA, “PB i) (Don't be discouraged — the denominator is only the total probability or sum of the possible branches ) Example | Um II has 4 white and 2 red balls. A ball is randomly selected from an urn. a) What is the probability of selecting a red ball?” b)_ Ifthe ball is red, what is the probability it that ‘came from ur 1? Method 1 (by formal deduction) a) P(R) = Sum of P(red) for each um P(R and 1) + P(R and It) PQ) PR {D+ PUD: P(R| I). by definition of conditional probability oak = eee 2 ae igeacis Ces by Paty ay = PD PLAID PO: PRL raed PRC 2 POR) PO-PR|D+ POD PR) 7 EST 2a 15 25°26 Copyright by reson Back Pblsing Al igh reserve. Cncopy © Fas red hat is Books wat covered by ther eeaingreement. No par this publication may be reproduced weep permision of the pubis.166 ¢ PROBABILITY Method 2 (by tree diagram) a) ‘Theory and Problems for Senior High Math PRD eran ¥ P(R) = sum of branches a e13,h 27 net 25 216 % branch t 9 by P¢R|n) = —Peaneh | _ 2 D PRIN = of branches 14 Example 2: Um I has 3 white and 5 black balls, Urn II has 4 white and 2 black balls and Urn [Il has 1 white and 3 blackballs. If the probability of selecting Um I is £,Um His 4 and Um tIlis following: a) Whatis the probability of selecting a white ball? + consider the b) Ifthe ball selected was white, what is the probability that it came from Um I? Method | (by formal deduction) 4) PU) = sum of P(white) for each um = PWand 1) + P(Wand il) + PCW and It) = PU): PUP) + PUI)» PU | th) + POLI) - PU ALL) tL aa Ceased 4 ») palin = PO-POr ID Method 2 (by tree diagram) a) 7 Puri femal) wy 2 branch I » = —banch y Pa) ‘sum of branches 8 3° 6 PU) PUD) _ PW)” PCD) POP| 1) + Pill). POY |UD + PCL) PU | tt) 2 PW) = sum of branches Copyright © by Crescent Beach Publishing — All rights reserved. Cancopy © has ruled that this book isnot Covered by ‘heir licensing agreement. No part ofthis publication may be reproduced without explicit permission ofthe publisher.‘Theory and Problems for Senior High Math PROBABILITY ¢ 167 ‘QUESTIONS NOTES / WORK AREA, SI. Jar has 3 red and 5 white marbles, jar Il has 4 red and 4 white marbles. A jar is selected at random and one marble is removed. 1a) What is the probability of selecting a red marble? b) What is the probability of the red marble coming from Jar I? 52. Cookie jar has 5 vanilla and 4 chocolate cookies, and jar I! has 3 vanilla and 6 chocolate cookies. Selecting jar I is twice as likely as jar IL a) What is the probability of selecting a vanilla cookic? b) Ifthe cookie selected is vanilla, what is the probability that it came from jar 11? 53. We havea fair coin, and act in that comes out heads with a probability of 3. From these two coins, a coin is chosen at random and flipped IF it lands on tails, what is the probability that it was the unfair coin? 54. Machine A produces 70% and Machine B produces 30% of all parts manufactured. If 4% of Machine A parts are defective, and 2% of, Machine B parts are defective, what is the probability that a defective product was made by Machine A? 55. Um I has 3 red, 4 white and 5 black balls, Um I! has 2 red and 6 white balls, and Um III has 5 white and 4 black balls. The probability of selecting Um I is 1 and the probability of selecting Umn Il is +. One ball is chosen at random; if the selected ball is black, what is the probability that it eame from Um 111? 56, Three coins consist of one coin that is fair, one that has heads on both sides, and one coin that comes out heads 2 of the time. A coin is, selected at random and flipped. a) What is the probability of a head? b)_Ifahead is shown, what isthe probability that the fair coin was picked? 57. A credit bureau indicates that 50% of all clients are type A. 30% are type B and 20% are type C. 11.5% of type A, 8% of type B and 10% of type C default on loans, what is the probability that a defaulting person is type B? 58. Mike, John and Paul sell life insurance. Mike sells 40%, Joti sells 35% and Paul sells 25% of all policies sold. 5% of Mike’s policies, 8% of John’s policies and 10% of Paul's policies are for over one million dollars is selected at random, what is the probability that itis over b) Ifa policy for over one million dollars is selected at random, what is, the probability that it was sold by John? 59. A test is 97% accurate that a person who tests positive actually has the disease, 1f2% of the population has the disease, what is the probability that a person selected at random actually has the disease if they test positive? ). A test for allergies is 99% effective detecting allergies when a person has allergies. However, the test yields false-positive result for 2% of healthy patients tested. Suppose 0.5% of the population have allergies. ‘What isthe probability that a person who tests positive actually has allergies? Copyright © by Crescent Beach Publishing ~All rights reserved. Cancopy © has ruled that this book is not covered by their licensing agreement. No part ofthis publication may be reproduced without explicit permission ofthe publisher.172_¢ PROBABILITY ~ SOLUTIONS. Theory and Problems for Senior High Math SOLUTIONS Multiple choice answers for questions 1 to 10: Gb 2b Sa 4b Sd Be Ze Be 9a 1d M1. Sample space is S = {lw1b, 1w2b, 1w3b, 1w4b, 2w1b, 2w2b, 2w3b, 2w4b, 3w1b, 3w2b, 336, 3w4b, 4w1b, 4w2b, 4w3b, 4w4b} with n(S) = 16 Let 4 = total of two dice is 5, A = {lw4b, 203d, 3026, 4wlb} with m(4)=4 aay = MO 4 wt nS) 16 4 12. a) Sample space S = {hhh, hlet, lth, thh, ath, tht, hte, te} with n(S) =8 b) Outcome A = (10h, the, hte, tt} with n(A) = 4 alae nS) 8 2 e) P(A) = 13.) {a,5,ch, 1a, 5}, tach, (bch, fa}, {b}, teh d b) 2”, mis the number of elements in the sample space. 14,2) S = (AB, AC, AD, AE, BC, BD, BE, CD, CE, DE} with »(5)= 10 b) X = (AB, AC, AD, AE, BC, BD, BE, CD,CE} with n(x)=9 Y ={BD, BE, DE} with (1) =3 Z ={AD, AE, BD, BE, CD, CE, DE} with n(Z)=7 nx) 9 nY) 3 n(Z) 7 p= MI an - MD - 3 yy - M7 8 PAO= os) 0" PO sy to? Pm Ty” 0 18, a) nS) = 6x 6 = 36 6 [r.ofe.a]o.afeafs 0.6) b) Let = white value larger than red value 5 [u.sfesife. n(A) = 13 (see diagram on right) qelalzaleoleateale 9 ray = MA 2 LS reds [anfanfapheafeafes nS) 36 12 lop. 2ifes 2nfs. 2] 6.2 v folk pla nfs ole. 16. a) n(S) = 4% 4x4 = 64 b) A+B+C=7 124 36 ways 1 3 3 -¥=3° ways} by counting principle 2.23 223 ways n(T) = 12 ways of having a total of 7 23 9 0) peas ie «4 16 Copyright © ‘by Crescent Beach Publishing — All rights reserved. Cancopy © has ruled that this book is mot covered by ‘heir licensing agreement. No part of this publication may be reproduced without explicit permission of the publisher. Aan mmm mm mame ee eee ee ee eee Se eGR AESOP OE OEE EAGER ETAAeeee‘Theory and Problems for Senior High Math PROBABILITY ~ SOLUTIONS ¢ 173 17.a) Independent because P(M) - P(H) = 0.8 x 0.9 = 0.72 and P(M and H) = 0.72 b) Dependent because P(X) P(N) = 0.6 x 0.7 = 0.42 and P(X and N) = 0.45 «¢) Dependent because what you draw on the first draw affects the odds on the second draw P(2k) = P(ky)= Pk) = x 44) Independent because replacing the card makes the odds on the second draw the same as on the first draw. P(2k) = PCK,)- PCRs = b> ©) Dependent because a lifeguard is out in the sun more than the average person would be {Independent because the colour of your hair has nothing to do with your 1.Q. 12) Dependent because it has been scientifically proven that smoking leads to lung cancer. 18, P(A)=0.2 > Plnor A)= 08 P(B)=0.4—> P(not B) = 0.6 a) P(not Aand not B)= P(not A)- P(not B)= 0.8 x 0.6 = 0.48 or 1 — PUA or B) = 1 ~[P(A) + PCB) ~ PCA and B)] = 1 - 0.2 - 0.4 + (0.2)(0.4) = 0.48 b) P(Aandnot 8) + P(not Aand B) = P(A): P(not B) + P(not A): P(B) = 02x 06 + 08x04 O12 + 0.32 0.44 19, A= ahh, ath hr}, with n(A) = 4, therefore, Pa) = AD - 4h n(S) 8 2 n(B)_4_1 B= (huh, wh he, at}, with n(B)= 4, therefore, P(B) = 8) = 2 = Uh, won ore, Pa)= ME = SS m)_2_1 C= {rth, hit}, with (= 2. p= MO 2 lu, tr, ith (C) = 2 therefore, PIC) = AE = 5 = a(AandB) _ 2 _1 (4 and B) = (th, rt}, with n(d and B)= 2, therefore, PUA and B)= AMES) © 8) (Hand 8) = (th th, wih nt and 8) = 2, therefore, PA and B) = METS = = 2 P(A): P(B) “3 ; | therefore, P(4 and B) = P(A) - P(B), so independent events b) (A and C)= {uth}, with n(A and C)= 1, therefore, P(A and C) = “a =} PCA) PIC) = ; | therefore, P(A and C) = P(A) - P(C), so independent events n(BandC) _ 2 nS) 8 ©) (Band C)= (th, hit}, with n(B and C)= 2, therefore, P(B and C)= , therefore, P(B and C) + P(B) - P(C), so not independent but dependent events Copyright © by Crescent Beach Publishing ~All vighs reserved. Cancopy © has ried that this book is not covered by ‘ther Tieensing agreement. No part of this publication may be reproduced without explicit permission ofthe publisher174_¢ PROBABILITY ~ SOLUTIONS, Theory and Problems for Senior High Math 70, Die B pea} 3 {4 [s|o[7]*]2 Sample space $= {36 values} Therefore, n(S) = 36 Event A= {2,7,7, 7.7.7.7, 11,11) with (4) = therefore, P(A) B= {3,3,5,5,5,5, 70 ToT 7%7,9,9% 99% UL LLY with n(B) = 18 mC) _12_1 C= {4,4,4,7,7,7,7,7, 710,10, 10} with n(C) = 12, therefore, P(C) = 20 = f } with n(C) = 12, OA ae 3 D={2.4.4,4,6,6,6,6,6,8,8,8,8,8, 10,10, 10,12} withn(D)=18 = p(p)=MO) BE nS) 362 a) (A and B)= (7.7,7,7,7,7. 11,11) with n(A and B)=8 2, P(Aand By = Aan) _ 8 _ 2 mS) 369 P(A): PUB) = jrtheretore, P(A and B) # P(A) - P(B), so not independent but dependent events b) (Band C)= {7,7.7.7,7.7) with n(Band C)=6 ». P(BandC) = emt P(B) - PC) = ; L-2 therefore, P(B and C) = P(B)- P(C), so independent events ©) (and D)= {2} with (A and D)= 1 therefore, P(Aand D) 3g P(A) - P(D) = t ie therefore, P(A and B) # P(A) - P(B), so not independent but dependent events @) (Cand D)= {4,4,4, 10, 10,10} with (Cand D)=6 + P(Cand D) = ee & -t PEC): PD) = + Heb therefore, P(Cand D) = P(C)- PCD), $0 independent evens Copyright © by Crescent Beach Publishing — All rights reserved. Cancopy © has ruled that this book is mot covered by thelr licensing agreement. No part of this publication may be reproduced without explicit permission of the publisher. een m secon scccoooaaaaaaananaaaagnaesenganaedTheory and Problems for Senior High Math PROBABILITY ~ SOLUTIONS ¢ 175 21, a) No, itis possible to have rain and sunshine on the same day. b) No, the hit could be a home run. ©) Yes, cannot get a hit and a walk at the same time at bat. 4d) No, Kim Campbell was Canada’s first woman Prime Minister. e) Yes, the only number greater than 5 on a die is 6 and it is not odd. £) No, the number 2 is both prime and even 8) Yes, cannot pick a face card and a seven with one draw. hh) No, there are three face cards that are hearts. (J, Q, K) 22,a) PCT or heart) = P(7) + Ptheart) ~ P(7 of heart) ene Soi nstoe 32 b) Plspade or diamond) = P(spade) + P(diamond) eel 1 1 4 4 2 23. a) Plgrade 11 or female) = P(grade 11) + Pfemale) ~ Plgrade 11 female) og Ore ate or m m4 4 b) Pgrade 12 or male) = P(grade 12) + P(male) ~ P(grade 12 male) eee eee eee eee reece ee 4 " Ae ace amet nal 24, a) P(mate or bus) = P(mate) + P(bus) ~ Plate who takes bus) 200g 2 -io 4 500 500 500 500° 5 b) P(female or not bus) = P(female) + P(not bus) — P(femate who does not take bus) OO eee eee MOOT eee 500 500 500 500 10 25. Let: Man of War!= M, Secretariat (there was no tie in this race) P(M or S) = P(M) + P(S) Dp aeegaeeHU -i¢i- 502 Bh is 26. P(S or T)= PIS) + PT) — P(both hit bull's eye) 2 1 eee 27. Plfirst bylaw passing) = 8 8 P(second bylaw passing)= — = * second ylawpasting) == = 77 5 5 both passing)= —— = > Plboth passing) = =e = Plat least one passing) = PUfrst passing) + Plsecond passing) ~ P(both passing) 7 8 5 lo 7 + = Ae WW WW W i Copyright © by Crescent Beach Publishing — All rights reserved. Cancopy © has ruled that this book is nox covered by their licensing agreement. No part ofthis publication may be reproduced without explicit permission of the publisher,176 # PROBABILITY ~ SOLUTIONS ‘Theory and Problems for Senior High Math 28. a) Plfirst die 3 I pee > Ploum Gor T= PO) + PCD = 3 (3, 3) and (3, 4) give a sum of 6 or 7 with the first a3, therefore, P(first 3 and (6 or 7) = 2 P(first 3 or sum (6 or 7) = PUfirst 3) + P(sum 6 or 7) ~ PUfirst 3 and (6 or 7)) 1 ul Se asieeee eoelaee 6 36 a i y= 2-1, ne die shows a 6) = u ») PUD= = 5 Plone die shows a 6) t-ptte (4,6) and (6, 4) has a sum of 10 and one die a 6, therefore P(both) = z a {sum of 10 or die a 6) = P(sum of 10) + Plone die a 6) ~ P(both) eee peer pe 2 36 ig 3 29. P(M) = 04, — PH) = 0.35, (Mand H) = 0.15 a) A student can take Math in two ways, with History or without History. P(M) = P(M and H) + P(M and not H) 04 = 0.15 + P(Mand not H) ‘Therefore, P(M and not H) = 0.25 b) A student can take History in two ways, with Math or without Math. P(H) = P(H and M) + P(H and not M) 0.35 0.15 + P(H and not M) Therefore, P(H and not M) = 0.20 A student has four choices. P(M and H) + P(M and not H) + Pnot Mand H) + P(not Mand not H) 01S + 0.25 + 020 + Plnot M and not H) Therefére, P(not M and not H) = 0.40 30. a) P(A or B)= P(A) + PCB) — P(A and BY let B=CorD PU or (Cor D)) = P(A) + P(C or D) ~ P(A and (Cor D)) Pid orCorD) = P(A) + P(C) + P(D) ~ P(C and D) [P(A and C) or P(A and DY) = P(A) + P(C) + P(D) ~ P(C and D) ~ [PIA and C)+ P(A and D) ~ P((A and C) and (C and D))] = P(A) + P(C) + P(D)~ P(C and D) - P(A and C)~ P(A and D) + P(A and Cand D) Replace D with B *. P(A or Bor C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C)— P(A and B)— P(A and C)— P(B and C) + P(A and B and C) b) (rolling 4 on die A)= P(g) = P(rolling 4 on die B) = P(B,) = P (rolling 4 on die C) = P(C,) = z Be see ttl 6 6 6 6 6 66 6 6 6 6 12 216 216 sy OL Agor B, or C,)=1-P(no4’s)=1-(2] = 2 P(Agar B, or C,)=1—P(n0.4s) (3) EE Copyright © by Crescent Beach Publishing — All rights reserved. Cancopy © has ruled that this book is mot covered by their licensing agreement. No port ofthis publication may be reproduced without explicit permission of the publisher or tt tm mmm mmnncaaaaanaaaeennnt‘Theory and Problems for Senior High Math PROBABILITY - SOLUTIONS ¢ 177 31. a) Not selecting a diamond, or selecting a club, spade or heart b) Selecting a poor teacher. ©) Selecting a day of the year it does not rain 4d) Sclecting a male student in your Math class. ©) Selecting one of the teams the Canucks lost to this year. 32. Plat least | girls) = 1- PG boys) 33. P(A and B)= P(A)- P(B)if A and B are independent =(lea)ey 34. (a) = 3 sy_ 91 Plat least one 4 in 3 rolls) = 1 - P(no 4's in 3 rolls) = 1-3) Fg 7 0a 35. P(R) =1-P(R) 1-(0.8)' = 0.672 = 67.2% probability of rain in next 5 days 36. Method 1 (by formula Plat least one man)= 1 ~P(3 women) youn of 3 won fom? CEE ofa me Fam 5 2 20 37 ” C, -— = O54) 120) ——oupet 3 popletom i2peoe 4 Method 2 (by reasoning) P(at least one man) = | - PQ women) choose 7 out of 12 women Sevennel oie Gono! won aia i S75 TL gga 11 10 4 a 12 & 37. Method 1. (by Formula) P(at least one heart) = 1 — P(no hearts) _ 1 £(39,5) — of 9 ohn you nam s = 0.778 C (52, 5) —— of $2 cars, you wants Method 2 (by reasoning) P(at least one heart) Pno hearts) 9 38 aT 36 38 = 0.778 2 SL 50 AB Conprigh © by Crscen Beach Publahing All righ reserved. Cancopy © tas riled tha tis Books mot covered by their lcensing agreement. No par of this publication may be reproduced without explicit permission of the publisher.‘Theory and Problems for Senior High Math PROBABILITY ~ SOLUTIONS ¢ 177 31. a) Not selecting a diamond, or selecting a club, spade or heart. b) Selecting a poor teacher. ©). Selecting a day of the year it does not rain. 4d) Selecting a male student in your Math class. €) Selecting one of the teams the Canucks lost to this year. () 38. P(A and B)= PCA) P(B) if A and B are independent 32, Pat least | girls) = 1 7 3 boys) = zo PQ boys) 3 34 P(A) = 2 Plat least one 4 in 3 rolls) = Sl = ons 216 35. P(R) =1-P(R) ~(0.8)° = 0.672 = 67.2% probability of rain in next 5 days 36. Method 1 (by formula Plat least one man) = 1 — P(3 women) ‘s0%pof 3 women fom? ome ‘men fom 5 - elas 27 = ogai 1aCy —— tronp of 3 people fom 12 people “4 Method 2 (by reasoning) P(at least one man) = 1 ~ P(3 women) choose 7 out of 2 women oe ore revved choc 6 tof I women trematodes e co S35. Fe gpa Wi” 44 ae 2 37. Method 1 (by formula) PCat least one heart) = | ~ P(no hearts) _ C9, 5) — 038 noneans, you wan 5 oa C(52,5) — or 2 cars, you wants Method 2 (by reasoning) P(at least one heart) = 1 — P(no hearts) 837638 _ ang 520 510 50 49 8 Copyright © by Crescent Beach Publishing — All ight reserved. Cancopy © has ruled tha this book i mot covered by thelr licensing agreement. No part ofthis publication may be reproduced without explicit permission of the publisher.178 ¢ PROBABILITY ~ SOLUTIONS Theory and Problems for Senior High Math, 38. PQ2 or more heads) Cane 39, Method | (by binomial theorem) PQQ or more hits) = 1 ~ [P(O hits) + PCI hit)) i {f oe 302) + (‘Jo 0. | Method 2 (by TI-83 calculator) 0.472 P(2 or more hits) = | ~ binomedf (5, 0.3, 1) = 0.47178 288 = 0.706 b) P(E) = d) @ PE) = (i) PE) = Note: P(E) + P(E )=1 Therefore, 23 people are needed P(Aand B) 0.2 P(Band A) _0.2_ 41a) PUB = by Pig] ay = Banda) 02 ea) ALD PB) 04 ible een nae 42.) P(C)=' PldandC) + P(BandC) = PA) PC] A) + PCB) = PIC|B) = (0608) + (04) (0.7) 048 + 0.28 = 076 b) PD) = PidandD) + P(Band D) = PUA): PD | A) + PUB) - PD|B) = (0.6)(0.2) + (0.4) (0.3) - 0.12 + 0.12 = 0.24 ©) PC|A) = 08 d) P(D|B) = 0.3 4B. a) PB|F) b) aim = 2 = 4 12 18 9 5 10 aS «) pais) = 2 © MELA =F ) POM| By = ‘Copyright © by Crescens Beach Publishing ~All righ reserved. Cancopy © has ruled that this book is not covered by their licensing agreement. No part ofthis publication may be reproduced without explicit permission of the publisher. RA AA nnn ann ana An eA OS SeeSOOOHOSASSOOOFOOOSeanasaueaaae |, » ’ ’ ’ , ’ y y » » » » » » » » a a » ’ » . a a a a . . . 2 . . a e e 8 5 ® ® ® ® ® ® ® ® » » ® ® ® . ® > ‘Theory and Problems for Senior High Math PROBABILITY - SOLUTIONS ¢ 179 44a) P(Eand Mf) = 0.04 b) P(E and M)= 0.10 ula ©) P(E and i) = 0.80 ) P(EandM)+ P(Eand M) + P(E and M) + P(E and it ©) P(Eand M)+ P(E and M) = Pst ) P(EandM)+ P(Eand M) = P(E) P(E and M) SRE Mean 0.06 | 008 | 0.10 0.10] 080 | 090 016 [oss] 1 hy ple\i) a 2 i) PIM| E) = fend 6) a PIE) k) P(E\M) Met Z » PmE)= Heat dD Plu \é)= 45, Method 1 (by basic reasoning) Sample Space $= (hh, hi, ch} Plih) = (0.6) (0.6) ,—-PUht) = Poh) = (0.6) (0.4) = 0.24 PUih) + Pht) + Plth) = 0.36 + 0.24 + 0.24 = 0.84 0.36 0847 Therefore, P(2 heads | at least one is a head ) = Method 2 (by formal definition) Let = 2 heads P(A) = (0.6) (0.6) B= at least one head P(B)=1~ P(B) PCB) = P(b,)+ Pb )— Pb, and &, puja) = PedandB) _PCA)_036_3 P(B) P(B) 0.84 7 0.36 1 P(t) = 1-(0.4) (0.4) = 0.84 oF 0.6 + 0.6 ~ (0.6)(0.6) = 0.84 Note: P(A and B) = P(A) because A isa subset of B. Method 3 (by tree diagram) os hy = (6408) = 036 , ale oe oT Ulu) ~ (0.60.4) = 0.24 m4 a sh Plu) = (04X0.8) = 0. — P(A |B) = Impossible st branch 0363 sum of possible branches 0.84 Copyright © by Crescent Beach Publishing ~ All rights reserved. Cancopy © has ruled that this hook ts wot covered by their licensing agreement. No par of this publication may be reproduced without explicit permission ofthe publisher.180 # PROBABILITY ~ SOLUTIONS. ‘Theory and Problems for Senior High Math ae 1 2 ) W | W; | 8 B | Bs Three cards Wel We? Wey Wedded de Method I (by basie reasoning) If side up is white, then card 3 (black, black) is eliminated. If one white side is showing, the remaining choices are 2 white and 1 black on cards 1 and 2. black 1 Qwhite + black 3 Plother side is black | side up is white) = Method 2 (by formal definition) Total Sample Space is $= (WW, Wal", WsB), BWi, BBs. B,B,} with n(S)=6 A~ (2% side is Black) = {W,B,, ByB,, ByBy} with n(A)=3, therefore, P(A) = 2 B= (Wside is White)= (WW, WM, WsB,} with n(B)=3, therefore, P(B) = as 2 (A and B) = (2" Black and 1" White) = {W,B,} with n(4 and B) P(A and B)= on ; "* Blac! * Whit i “therefore, p(4 8) = 242082) _, pram pinck| White) = PO~ Black andl” White) _ i P(B) P(1* side is White) 7 47. Method 1 (by basic reasoning) w |B | Tota _| ae eee Only one out of six possibilities is 8 3 2 3 1 Sle ae |e Therefore, P(8) = ‘ 3 4 7 5 z 8 3] 6 | 9 Method? (by formal definition) 7 Let 7 = total showing on both dice is 8 tla W = white dieis 3 P= He. PON =H AL (Tand W) = {8} pack Le | * therefore PT and 1”) = 5 als an s [6 peri = Pane) PH) & 8 ela Copyrigha © by Crescont Beach Publishing Allright reserved. Cancopy @ has ruled that this book i wot ‘covered by cred ieersing agreement, No par of this publication may be reproduced without explicit permission of the publisher esaaeene ett aaa scnnnennccceceansesecececeerucenneSELEPARESER PERS RSE SESE RERSRREREREREREREE ESSERE EEEEEES Theory and Problems for Senior High Math PROBABILITY ~ SOLUTIONS ¢ 181 48. Method 1. (by basic reasoning) Dic A i[a s| 6 There are 11 possibilities with at least one 4 Only one of these 11 has two 4's vias o|7 i 2)3]4 7/8 Therefore, P(two 4's DieB. Method 2 (by formal definition) bid A= {getting two 4's), theref pay= bed {woting two 4°s}, therefore Olrarieerd B= (atleast one die is a4}, therefore P(B)=1-P(B) =1- 2.521! ; 6 636 P(Aand 8) A B)= PARR) 4 isa subset of B50 P(A and B) = PUA) PUA a sasubset of Bso P(Aand B) = P(A) 74) ¥ a 4 0 Black die 49. Method 1 (by basic reasoning) ‘P2la]elsfe The white die is a3 of 6: vfefafals|e]a five of the 12 possible totals are greater than 8 alslalslalazla 5 Therefore, P(greater than 8) = > White fore, Plgreater than 8) = mite | 3 6 Method 2 (formal definition) Let A = total of two dice is greater than 8, therefore P(A 8 = white dies divisible by 3, therefore PB)= 12, with Pd and B) = 3 ) = P(4and 8) A\B. Pal Pay Copyright © by Crescent Beach Publishing — Allvights reserved. Cancopp © has riled that this book iz mot covered by Uther licensing agreement. No part ofthis publication may be reproduced without explicit permission ofthe publisher.180 ¢ PROBABILITY - SOLUTIONS Theory 4 lems for Senior High Math ron ae 1 2 3 mim) lm la B | B Wet wea wie) WED Sel wT Method 1. (by basic reasoning) 0.91296 If'side up is white, then card 3 (black, blac! Ifone white side is showing, the remain Plother Sie is black | side up is Method 2 (by formal definitio 2 8 ‘Total Sample Space is $ = 5 a 3 A= (2% sideis Black ¢ i B= ("side is ¥ s ie (A and B) 92 Ww wes for each place a red marble can be found. we and) + P(Rand I) PO) PQR|D) + PUD PR| I) (conditional probability formula) GN ees eae eee 2° 8 Seesiig Hee: PQ) PERI) b) PULR) = PO POR|D+ PU) PR) ‘Method 2 (by tree diagram) » : ri) : anaes P(R) ~ sum of branches at 3 ta 4 uP R 2828 16 + branch I b) PRI) =| ——— » PRD = om of branches Copyright © ly Crescent Beach Publishing All rigs reserved. Cancopy © has ruled that this book is not covered by ‘helt Heensing agreement. No part ofthis publication may be reproduced without explicit permission ofthe publisher. Ce RA een ninanninaasesenoanae Pee eee eee eee eee kl182_¢ PROBABILITY ~ SOLUTIONS. ‘Theory and Problems for Senior High Math 50. Let A = exactly four wins B = win at least twice First, solve for P(B): Method I. (by formula) P(B) = P(2wins) + P(3wins) + P4wins) + PCS wins) : (3Josreay (Fe 60a)? +(Jlosreay + (Jlesrtoay = 091296 Method 2 (by complement formula ) PB) [PO .wins) + PCL wins)] 0.91296 Method 3 (by TI-83 calculator) PB) Second, solve for P(A): ~ binomedf (5, 0.6, 1) = 0.91296 P(A) = P(4 wins) = (Jesrtoa9 0.2592 or P(A) = binompdf (5, 0.6, 4) = 0.2592 P(Aand B)_ P(A) _ 0.2592 _ PB) P(B) (0.91296 But 4 is a subset of B, therefore, P(4| B)= 0.2839 51. Method 1 (by formal definition) a) P(R) = Sum of probabilities for each place a red marble can be found. = P(Randl) + P(Rand tl) = PQ) PR| 1) + PUI) PR|) (conditional probability formula) Tea Tectia tata i. i 8 Boa te PA): PRIN) i P(I)- P(R|I)+ PU) PCR) b) PUL R) = Method 2 (by tree diagram) a . at, ue : Pp $ i been = bench ba sumof branches Copyright © by Crescent Beach Publishing ~ All rights reserved. Cancopy © has ruled thai this book is wot covered by their licensing agreement. No part ofthis publication may be reproduced without explicit permission of the publisher Bee e eam een ann ann ann nanan nnnnnnnnnnnan nnn nnn neeTheory and Problems for Senior High Math, PROBABILITY ~ SOLUTIONS ¢ 183 52. Method 1 (by formal definition) a) P(W) = sum of probabilities for each place a vanilla cookie can be found. = PVand!) + P(Vand Il) = PU) P|) + PAD PY) Sets es a 3 9 3 9 27 ' Paty: PY |) 3 7 8 run — Ameren #3 PCD): P(V [1) + P(IT)- POV | 1) 3 3 3 B 13 Method 2 (by tree diagram) ari 7 u P() = sum of branches ae 25,133 ye y9'39 7 branch it $3 _ 3 by pany) = —bemont 33 5 umof branches 13. sumof branches 3 13 53. Method 1. (by formal definition) Let F = faircoin; F = unfaircoin; T= tails = PF) PriF) 4 PF - Me Oe ae PU|F)+ PF) PIF) 3-24h-5 9 Method 2 (by tree diagram) : 7 bottom branch a PR | 1) = Sotomonn mm _; (FID ~ “omof branches cea z r 42 9 54, Method 1 (by formal definition) Let D = Defective product P(A): P(D| A) 079004) = og935 PD) = Fy P(D/Ay+ PCB) PDB) (0.7K0.04)+(0.3X0.02) Method 2 (by tree disgram) POI pay py - obra 008 ‘sum of branches iz (0.7)(0.04) a WN p22 > = —_ CDOS) —___ 08235 a (0.7) (0.04) + (0.3) (0.02) Copyright © by Crescent Beach Publishing — All rights reserved. Cancopy © has ruled tha this book is wot covered by view licensing agreement. No part ofthis publication may be reproduced without explicit permission ofthe publisher.184_¢ PROBABILITY ~ SOLUTIONS, ‘Theory and Problems for Senior High Math 55. Method | (by formal definition) L Ie PU) = 4 Pa) =~ 5 then pay = = because P(l) + P(II) + P(lll) = Pau): P(B| I) es eile PUN) = Spee Pun: Palins PUB) > [Sov Se 2s (DPB + PUD: PCBLII)+ PUID-PBIM) Sah. Ba Sg 25 Method 2 (by tree diagram) bottom branch UU |B) PAB) = sim of branches . - se 0,5 rpitat 5 56, Method 1 (by formal definition) a) P(H) = different coins that have a head on them. (Hand!) + P(Hand tl) + PHand Il) = PUD): PCH | 1) + PO) PO| Hl) + PO PCH) aca 1 1 Herne) ee eee cee ier pete) b) Let coin I be the fair coin PAL PDD = PO) PCH |) + PU): PCH Ul) + POD) PCH | AI}) Method 2 (by tree diagram) LC aFtes ePnen IE 9 ; 30 Ny ety branch I ae Py = ee > AU) = Snot branches 1 19 Copyright © by Crescent Beach Publishing — All rights reserved. Cancopy © has ruled that this book is not covered by ‘heir licensing agreement. No part of this publication may be reproduced without explicit permission ofthe publisher. aan nnn mcm mccccccccece saa eDODPPAAARAHRARARARHEROSSSAADOCOEE’ , » . » » 2 » » ‘Theory and Problems for Senior High Math PROBABILITY - SOLUTIONS ¢ 185 57. Method 1. (by formal definition) Let D = default alos = PCB): P(D|B) P(A) P(D| A) + P(B)- P(D| B) + P(C) P(D|C) (0.30\(0.08) ae ea )____ 93478 (0.50Y(0.05) + (0.30 0.08) + (0.20X0.10) Method 2 (by tree diagram) 2nd branch AD IAy B [py = —2na branch eee Ops - PBI D) = Snof the branches 030 2 _ M018) (0.30X0.08) 0.08 (0.50)(0.05) + (0.30X0.08) + (0.2040.10) ADO) c—f219__p a0 0.3478 58. Method | (by formal definition) a) Let 0 = policy over one million P(O) = sum of probabilities for each person who sells policies of over million dollars. P(OandM) + P(OandJ) + P(Oand P) P(M) - P(O| M) + PU) P(O| J) + PIP) P(O|P) (0.40(0.05) + (0.35)(0.08) + (0.25\0.10) 0.073 = 73% PU)- POI) _____ (0350.08) b) PUIO) = P(M)- P(O|M) + PJ): P(O| J) + P(P)- P(O| P) 0.073 0.384 Method 2 (by tree diagram) a) P(O| Mo oan 4 005 P(O) = sum of branches. os. OID _g (0.40\(0.05) + (0.35)(0.08) + (0.25)(0.10) ome = 0.073 02 p—ROIP) 9 0.10 by Puloy = —Remeh2_ _ (035}0.08) _9 454 sumof branches 0.073, Copyright © by Crescent Beach Publishing ~All rights reserved. Cancopy © has ruled thar this Book isnot covered by thelr licensing agreement. No part of this publication may be reproduced without explci permission ofthe publisher.186 ¢ PROBABILITY ~ SOLUTIONS ‘Theory and Problems for Senior High Math 59. Let D = has disease; D = does not have disease; T= test positis P(D):P(T|D) (0.02\0.97) ‘P(D)-PO|D)+ PD)-PUT|D) — (0.02¥0.97)+(0.98Y0.03) POT) = = 0.3975 = 40% Note: There are two ways you can have the disease. 1) The test is correct when it says you have the disease. 2) The test is wrong when it says you don't have the disease. 60. Let D = has allergies; D = does not have allergies; E = test positive P(D): PE|D) a (0.005}0.99) P(D)- P(E|D) + P(D)- P(E|D) —_ (0.005Y0.99)+(0.995Y0.02) PDE) = 0.199 = 20% 61. Probability that first ball drawn is white is $ Now replace white, and add | white: we have 3 black and 6 white so probability of white is § he probability the first two balls are white is $x 6 = 5. ‘Therefore, the probability the first wo balls are white is $x $= 5 62, (Fair coin and tail) plus (unfair coin and tail) iad es: Osa a ha. 63. Any 3 different letters can be arranged 3! = 6 ways Example: AFX has arrangements AFX, AXF, FAX, FXA, XAF, XPA Therefore, probability of letters in alphabetic order, ie. AFX, is 64. Um I ~ 4 black and 2 white Um Il —3 black and 3 white Selection from Urn I Selection from Um Il Poblack) = 4 Then Um II has 4 black and 3 white, P(white) = 3 Powhite) = 2 Then Ur It has 3 black and 4 white, P(white) = 4 refore, 4.34 2.4.10 Therefore, 4-34 2. 4-10 65, Method 1: The first couple has 6 seats from which to choose, the next only 4 seats and the last couple only 2 seats. Therefore, 6 x4 x 2= 48 ways Method 2: Consider ABC, one arrangement of 3 couples AaBbCe] 4 waysstarting with Aa bBCe | 4waysstarting with a4 BbeC} 8 total bBeC There are 8 ways of arranging individuals for ABC and 3! ways of arranging ABC. Therefore, 3! x8 = 48 ways of seating 3 couples Copyright © by Cresceni Beach Publishing — Ail rights reserved. Cancopy © has ruled that ths book is wot covered by their licensing agreement. No part ofthis publication may be reproduced without explicit permission ofthe publisher.‘Theory and Problems for Senior High Math PROBABILITY ~SOLUTIONS ¢ 187 66. guest Let M = Mike naa J = Jessica Qeco) A,B,C, D = 4 other passengers With Jessica next to Mike, then A, B, C, D can be arranged in 4! = 24 ways With Jessica not next to Mike, then A, B, C, D, can be arranged in 4! = 24 ways ‘Therefore, 2x 4! = 48 seating arrangements 67. Eight people ean be arranged in 8! ways Consider Tom and Jerry as one “person” so the group can be arranged in 7! ways But Tom and Jerry can sit on either side of each other, (TJ or JT) x2 1 a4 Therefore, PCTJ or JT) = 68. Three dice have 6 = 216 different arrangements. a) A+B+C=9 6 3! = 6 ways eee) 31 = 6 ways 44 ways Poy = 25. aetaats 3 ways 216 234 31 = 6 ways 30303 =1 way 25 ways b) A+B+C=10 13 6 31 = 6 ways 145 ways 22 6 3 ways 271 re 2! 10) = Seas es 31 = G ways 24 4 © ~ 3 ways 5 ox 3 ways 27 ways ©) There is only one way to obtain3 = 1+1 +1 orl8=6+6+6, P(3)=P(I8) “ 4) ‘The middle numbers 10 and L1 have the greatest probability of occurring, P(10) = P(11) = Copyright © by Crescent Beach Publishing — Allrighs reserved. Cancopy @ has riled that this Book is not covered by ‘ther licensing agreement, No part of tis publication may be reproduced without explicit permission of the publisher.188 ¢ PROBABILITY - SOLUTIONS ‘Theory and Problems for Senior High Math 69. a) 5-4-3-2-1=120

S)xa s 5°87 4 74. This is not binomial because each time a tire is checked, there is one less tire left to check, Method 1 (by formula) 3 10 3 8y2 < Oftthe 10 tires, you want 3 of them ma 5 Method 2 (by reasoning) eee ae eer 0° 9° 8 15 8 chanced out of 10 of selecting good tires | 7 chances out of 9 of selecting good tires 6 chances out of 8 of selecting good tires 75. This is binomial because the probability does not change in each bankruptcy case. Method | (by formula) £Cu-(06}"(04)'+4C, 0.6) (0.4) +504 -0.6)(04)” = 1OL- osaasa Method 2 (by TI-83 calculator) 1 —binomedf (6, 0.6, 3) = 0.54432 Note: the TI-83 calculator method is explained in much more detail in the Statistics Unit. Copyright © by Crescent Beach Publishing ~All rights reserved. Cancopy © has raled that tis Book is not covered by thet Licensing greement. No part ofthis publication may be reproduced without explicit permission ofthe publisher190 ¢ PROBABILITY ~ SOLUTIONS Theory and Problems for Senior High Math 76. This is binomial, Method 1 (by complementary formula) Plat least one 7) = 1 ~ P(no 7's) sys) =1-[°/4) (3) -o598 (fe) -e Method 2 (by TI-83 calculator) P(at least one 7) binompdf (5, —,0) = 0.598 1 e 77. This is not binomial because each time a t-shirt is selected the probability changes for the next selection Method | (by formula) ByYs = = =0.05779 969 20 4} © 0F20 tshirts Ken wants 4 Method 2 (by reasoning) Fy” * TE Buty the permutation principle, 2 white and 2 blue canbe arranged 4! 754 Spy = O ways, therefore, >. .6 9.05779 22 ae 20 19 18 17 78. This is not binomial because once a sock is selected the probability changes for the next selection a) Method 1 (by formula) OFBblack socks, Ken wants?» gC 2 o1 OF 18 socks, Ken wants? + gC Method 2 (by reasoning) 28 Bchoices outer 18> 2.2 © 7 choices outor17 = 2% = 0.183 18 17 3 b) Method 1 (by formula) Cyt eCat aly_ 49 PQ same colour) = = 8 03203 ‘@same colour) a s Method 2 (by reasoning) seat yas P(2same colour) = 2.246. 5.4.3.4 og 3093 1817-18 17-18 17 153 Copyright © by Crescent Beach Publishing — All ights reserved. Cancopy © has ruled that this book isnot covered by ‘ther licensing agreement. No part ofthis publication may be reproduced without explicit permission ofthe publisher. mt tt tee ee enema mn nnn nnnnnnmnnnessecsecccasaaamaiaimiaa‘Theory and Problems for Senior High Math PROBABILITY — SOLUTIONS ¢ 191 79. This is binomial because the number of defective games does not change with any shipment Method 1 P25 good games) + P(24 good games) Cu (0.92)(0.08)" + 35C,4(0.92)*(08)! =0.3947 Method 2 (by TI-83 calculator) | — binomedf (25, 0.92, 23) 0.3947 80. This is not binomial because once a student is selected, the probability changes for the next pick. Method | (by formula) PQ U ofS, UBC, WU of 4) = SAX 301 = 250, Cs 3003 (08325 Method 2 (by reasoning) CERAM But bythe permutation principle, the 5 students canbe arranged 7, = 20 ways therefore, 2.4.3.5. 5.29 = 008325 15 141312 11 : wee 81,2) PCS right, 35 wrong) = oCy(5} [F] = 0.0299 3 or by TI-83 caleulator = binompdt (50 0.2 , 15) = 0.0299 b) Plat least 15 right) = P(1S) + P(16) + ...... + P(S0) = 1—[P(0)+ PU) + + PAY] by TI-83 calculator binomedf (50 , 0.2, 14) = 0.0607 Note: the TI-83 calculator method is explained in much more detail in the Statistics Unit Copyright © by Crescent Beach Publishing ~ All ight reserved. Cancopy © has ruled that this hook is mot covered by thelr lieensing agreement. No part ofthis publication may be reproduced without explicit permission ofthe publisher