INDUSTRIES & MARKETS

eMobility –
In-depth Market Insights & Data
Analysis

October 2024
 Management summary (1/3)

The history of electric vehicles started in the early 1800s, but only took off when of these vehicles. Further, 5G rollouts and new business models such as Battery-as-
Tesla entered the market and reignited public interest in electric cars. In 2023, a-Service are expected to drive future growth.
global electric vehicle sales surpassed 13 million units, an increase of 35% over
Five main challenges hinder the adoption of electric vehicles: lack of infrastructure
2022. Currently, Mainland China is leading the way with a market share of almost
(such as charging stations), high upfront costs, lack of consumer knowledge and
58%. Car manufacturers are pushing to bring out new electric car models and have
wrong perceptions, pressure from oil companies and the car manufacturer lobby,
big plans for the future. The 2023 race for the highest market share was won by the
and potential long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Not only are charging
Tesla Model Y, followed by BYD Song (BEV + PHEV), Tesla Model 3, and BYD Qin Plus
stations still very few and far between, but they are also usually manufactured by
(BEV + PHEV).
different suppliers without a standardized charging and payment system. In
There are five major drivers of the electric vehicle market: government policies, the addition, high upfront costs make electrical vehicles less attractive than traditional
Tesla effect, lower battery costs, 5G rollouts, and the launch of the Battery-as-a- internal-combustion engine cars, mainly due to the high battery costs which often
Service model. Governments are trying to achieve their emission goals set out in account for as much as 50% of the total vehicle cost.
various global agreements and have devised various incentive schemes to increase
Autonomous driving and electric cars go, without a doubt hand in hand. Thanks to
electric vehicle sales. While electric vehicles are a major step towards achieving
easier integration and component control, it is easier to realize self-driving cars
environmental goals, Tesla managed to fuse this with high performance and
using electric vehicles rather than vehicles with internal combustion engines. While
aesthetics, thereby playing a pivotal role in changing the industry’s overall appeal.
the U.S. has been pioneering this trend, Mainland China will be the market leader.
The significant reduction in the prices of battery packs is also driving mass adoption
Despite the challenges, lithium-ion batteries are still expected to dominate the
battery market for electric vehicles.

2
 Management summary (2/3)

This is mainly because the development of new battery technologies is both very and longer life cycles.
expensive and complicated. Moreover, Mainland China’s domination of the lithium-
Rising pollution levels, potential operational cost savings, and heavy dependence
ion battery supply chain is expected to come to an end in the medium to long-term,
on public transportation are the three major factors driving the gradual switch from
as the U.S. and Europe are gaining more control over various elements of the
hydrocarbon-based to electric public transport. According to the International
supply chain. Interestingly, quantum computing is expected to significantly disrupt
Energy Agency (IEA), nearly 50,000 electric buses were sold worldwide in 2023,
the electric vehicle industry, resulting in higher battery ranges, new product
accounting for 3% of total bus sales and increasing the global fleet to
launches, and autonomous driving. Due to their low operating costs, electric
approximately 635,000 vehicles, with China accounting for nearly 50% of the
vehicles are also part of the ride-sharing movement, with many car manufacturers
market share. Financial support from the government, a large urban population—
launching electric car-sharing operations. Moreover, the demand for related
and the resultant pollution, a lack of traditional transportation infrastructure, global
electronics and software is expected to grow significantly over the next few years.
trade, and increased public awareness are the five key reasons for Mainland
Lithium-ion batteries dominate the market mainly because they deliver the highest China’s dominance.
range at a lower cost when compared to any other battery. However, due to
E-scooters have recently gained in popularity and are believed to be the solution to
limitations such as long charging times, the size, its heavy weight, and limited
the last-mile transportation problem in many global markets. Even though the
battery capacity, companies such as Toyota, Volkswagen, Nissan, and Tesla are now
overarching reason behind the development of various alternative fuel
investing in solid-state, lithium-sulfur, and zinc-air batteries for their future models.
technologies is restricting environmental damage mainly caused by polluting
Further, universities, technology companies, and independent battery start-ups are
vehicles, the e-scooter industry is specifically driven by the rise of micro-mobility.
collaborating to develop other types of batteries, such as aluminum-ion, smart
The aim here is to transform urban transportation by using cheaper and faster
membranes, and graphene-based supercapacitors to enable faster charging times
alternatives to cars, especially in the U.S., Asia, and Latin America.

3
 Management summary (3/3)

E-bikes are essentially conventional bikes equipped with a rechargeable battery and Tesla is the most recognized electric vehicle (EV) brand in the world. In 2023,
motor, helping them gain momentum faster and achieve speeds of up to 30 miles combined sales of the Model 3 and Model Y totaled 1,739,707 units. Tesla’s success
an hour. They look and function just like traditional bikes and give riders the option is primarily attributed to its aesthetics and longer ranges compared to other EVs.
to pedal when they like. BYD is one of the largest selling brands in Mainland China, but its focus on
international markets is limited. The company’s top-selling model in 2023 was the
They are classified according to functionality (mountain bikes, road bikes, hybrid
Song with sales of over 627,731 units. Volkswagen sold a total of 771,100 EVs in
bikes, folding bikes, and utility bikes) or according to design (pedal assist/pedelec,
2023, up by 35% from the 572,129 sold in 2022. The other European player, BMW,
throttle, and speed pedelec). The growing popularity of e-scooters around the
has 20 EV models in its portfolio and had over 2.6 million electric vehicles in
world has piqued interest in e-bikes. The first e-bike was manufactured in Japan in
circulation by the end of 2023.
1993, with Yamaha launching its pedal assist bicycle.
In terms of charging infrastructure, Mainland China once again leads the pack with
As electric drive vehicles are gradually gaining momentum around the world, the
more than 2,700,000 publicly accessible charging points, followed by South Korea
next phase of growth is expected to mainly be driven by vans and trucks. The need
(approx. 201,000), the U.S. (approx. 183,000), and the Netherlands (approx.
to switch to cleaner engines is far greater for these larger vehicles, given that they
145,800).
are more polluting than cars. Even though fewer than 5% of vehicles in Europe are
commercial vehicles or heavy-duty trucks they contribute to almost 20% of Mainland China is by far the market leader, not only in Asia but also worldwide. PEV
greenhouse gas emissions. One of the main reasons why the light commercial sales amounted to over 5,400,000 units in 2023—nearly 145% more than the
vehicles (LCV) industry is witnessing electric disruption at such a fast pace is its high combined PEV sales in Europe. South Korea, Japan, and India are the other leading
and predictable usage rate. markets in Asia. As for e-LCVs, Mainland China and South Korea account for a 99%
share in the Asian market, with combined sales of over 281,000 units in 2023.

4
 Table of contents (1/3)

Management summary Autonomous cars 46

Government policies 26
Shared cars 56
Tesla effect 28
Table of contents Battery supply chain 60
Lower battery costs 31
Quantum computing 63
5G impact 32
01 Introduction Automotive electronics and software 65
Battery-as-a-service 34
Overview 09
New entrants 35
Ecosystem 10 05 Battery technology
Evolution 11 Overview 67
03 Challenges
Electric vehicles: Sales 15 Global cobalt production and reserve 68
Lack of infrastructure 37
Electric vehicles: Stock 17 Lithium-ion battery 70
High costs 40
Forecast 18 Solid-state battery 72
Consumer knowledge and perception 42
Production plans 19 Aluminum-ion battery 73
Oil companies & car manufacturer lobby 43
Comparison of leading brands 22 Lithium-sulfur battery 74
Incentive cuts 44
Comparison of leading models 23 Smart membrane 75
Graphene-based supercapacitors 77
04 Trends Battery comparison 78
02 Market drivers

5
 Table of contents (2/3)

06 Electrification of public transport Overview 105 BYD 132

Overview 81 E-bike ownership 108 General Motors 134
Mainland China’s e-bus dominance 82 Evolution 109 Nio 136
Municipal e-bus fleet projects 85 Drivers 111 Nissan 138
E-bus fleet: Europe 88 Rivian 140
E-bus models: Mainland China 90 09 E-LCV Tesla 142
E-bus models: Global 91 Overview 114 Volkswagen 153
e-LCV sales 117
07 E-scooters e-LCV fleet in Europe 123 12 Country analysis
Overview 96 Overview 156
Barriers & preferences 99 10 Consumer insights Mainland China 158
Accidents 100 Electric cars 125 U.S. 160
Autonomous e-scooters 101 Germany 163
E-scooter models 102 11 Competitive landscape France 166
Company comparison 129 UK 168
08 E-bikes BMW 130 The Netherlands 170

6
 Table of contents (3/3)

Belgium 172 Top 8 European countries in 2023 199

Canada 173
Sweden 175 14 Special: EV sales in Asia
Japan 177 Development of PEV sales 204
Italy 178 Country ranking 205
South Korea 180 Top 4 Asian countries in 2023 207
Spain 182 Development of e-LCV sales in Asia 209
Norway 184 Country ranking 210
India 187 Top 2 Asian countries in 2023 211

13 Special: EV sales in Europe 15 Appendix

Development of PEV sales 189 Authors 213
Country ranking 190 Glossary 214
Top 8 European countries in 2023 192 Statista Consumer Insights 216
Development of e-LCV sales in Europe 196 Statista Market Insights 217
Country ranking 197

7
CHAPTER 1

Introduction

The history of electric vehicles started in the early 1800s, but only took off when Tesla entered the market
and reignited public interest in electric cars. In 2023, global electric vehicle sales surpassed 13 million
units, an increase of 35% over 2022. Currently, Mainland China is leading the way with a market share of
almost 58%.

Car manufacturers are pushing to bring out new electric car models and have big plans for the future.
The 2023 race for the largest market share was won by the Tesla Model Y, followed by BYD Song (BEV +
PHEV), Tesla Model 3, and BYD Qin Plus (BEV + PHEV).
 Tesla reignited public interest in electric vehicles in 2008
Overview

Contrary to public opinion, EVs are not a new concept. They have been around many false starts over the last decade. Given that EV adoption rates stood at
since the nineteenth century, with the first car produced as early as 1828. However, around 18% of the overall car market in 2023, the global market is still very much at
the market never gained any significant traction and by 1912, high costs alongside an ‘innovator’ phase of the product adoption curve. The primary reasons for this
limited research and development into advanced technologies resulted in a great include concerns around range, price, charging infrastructure, and, at times—
reduction in public interest. safety. Additionally, there is a general consumer inertia about switching from the
internal-combustion engine (ICE), which has been the dominant automotive motor
General Motors managed to revive interest in 1996, when it started leasing
type for decades. Moreover, the sharp fall in oil prices around the world, which
programs for the EV1, an electric car with a range of 70-100 miles. In 1999, the
began in 2020 has significantly lowered the total cost of owning ICE vehicles,
company also launched an upgraded version equipped with nickel-metal hydride
thereby driving their sales.
batteries and an extended range of 140 miles. Even though 1,000 of these cars
were manufactured, the project was later abandoned. One other reason for the slow adoption of EVs is the big ecosystem they are
dependent on. While there is a huge number of gas stations all over the world, the
The current buzz surrounding the EV industry can be largely attributed to Tesla,
number of charging stations is still low. Additionally, charging stations from
which reignited public interest with the launch of its lithium-ion battery-powered
different providers use different charging methods, making it even harder for
Roadster in 2008. This proved to be pivotal, not only for Tesla but for other U.S.
consumers to know in advance how much it would cost to charge their EV.
companies as well—all of whom received generous funding from the U.S.
Department of Energy. Tesla used the money to develop the hugely popular Model Even though the market for electric buses, trucks, and two-wheelers has also
S, therefore laying the foundation for increased adoption of EVs. witnessed an upward trend, strong adoption is restricted to just a few countries
and pockets of society.
However, despite the excitement surrounding EVs, the market has experienced

Sourc es: Department of Energy; The Verge; McKinsey

 Electric vehicles depend on a big ecosystem
Ecosystem

Electric vehicles ecosystem

• Battery manufacturers • Regulators

• Charging stations • Environmentalists

• Electricity providers

Electric vehicles

• Electric Vehicle FEVs(1) | PEVs(2) | HEVs(3) | PHEVs(4)

manufacturer • End users

10 Notes: (1) Full EVs (2) Plug-in EVs (3) Hybrid EVs (4) Plug-in Hybrid EVs

Sourc es: Statista

 Evolution of electric vehicles: Timeline (1/4)
Evolution (1/4)

1828 ⚫ First car with an electric motor is introduced 1997 ⚫ Toyota and Ford release the RAV4 EV & Ranger EV respectively

1837 ⚫ First American patent is filled for an electric machine/motor 1998 ⚫ Honda released the EV Plus

1859 ⚫ The first EV with a lead-acid battery is launched 2001 ⚫ Mahindra launches REVA, the first Indian EV

1884 ⚫ Thomas Parker builds the first practical production 2003 ⚫ Tesla motors is founded
EV with rechargeable batteries
2006 ⚫ Tesla releases the Roadster, the first EV to use li-ion batteries
1911 ⚫ First gasoline-electric hybrid car is launched
2008 ⚫ The Think City EV is launched in Norway
1976 ⚫ The U.S. Congress passes the Electric and Hybrid Vehicle R&D, and
Demonstration Act 2009 ⚫ BYD releases the world’s first plug-in hybrid compact sedan, the
F3DM
1977 ⚫ AMC and Gulton Industries launch a 3-passenger electric commuter BMW starts initial trial of Mini Electric
city car Tesla unveils the Model S electric sedan
U.S. Department of Energy awards US$8 bn in loans to Ford, Tesla
1996 ⚫ General Motors introduces the EV1 and NISSAN for development of EVs

11

Sourc es: Company information; Press releases

 Evolution of electric vehicles: Timeline (2/4)
Evolution (2/4)

2010 ⚫ NISSAN releases the Leaf 2016 ⚫ Tesla announces plans to launch the Model 3 in 2017
The Chevy Volt goes into mass production Tesla announces that all its future vehicles would be fully
autonomous
2011 ⚫ The Bolloré Bluecar is released in France
2017 ⚫ Tesla temporarily halts production of Model 3; share price tanks
2012 ⚫ Tesla unveils the Model X, an electric SUV/crossover amidst falling customer and investor confidence
Tesla begins building a North American supercharger network Tesla delivers the first Model 3 in the U.S.
Mainland China announces definite plans to end production and
2013 ⚫ Number of electric cars on roads crosses the 400,000 mark sales of ICE cars
BMW launches the i3
2018 ⚫ Global electric vehicle sales cross the one million mark for 2017
2014 ⚫ Over 40 EV models are launched including the BMW i8 Shenzhen electrifies its entire bus fleet of 16,359 vehicles
The NISSAN Leaf becomes the first electric car to see over 100,000 Jaguar launches its first all-electric vehicle, the I-Pace
sales Tesla lets go 9% of their 37,500 members of staff
BMW launched i8 Roadster in March 2018
2016 ⚫ Tesla and Panasonic agree to invest US$6 billion to expand battery Audi launches e-tron electric SUV in the U.S. in September
production Global yearly electric vehicle sales near the two million mark

12

Sourc es: Company information; Press releases

 Evolution of electric vehicles: Timeline (3/4)
Evolution (3/4)

2019 ⚫ Renault launches City K-ZE, the electric version of Kwid in Mainland 2021 ⚫ President Joe Biden sets a goal that 50% of all car sales be electric by
China in September 2019 2030
Porsche launches its first electric car, the Taycan Turbo, in Canada, The U.S. government signs the US$1.2 trillion Bipartisan
Mainland China and Germany in September Infrastructure Law, which includes US$7.5 billion for EV charging
stations
2020 ⚫ Tesla crossed 500,000 deliveries in 2020 UK based EV manufacturer Arrival is listed on the NASDAQ with a
Apple announced plans to launch its first electric car in 2024 with valuation of around US$13 billion, making it the largest-ever listing
new battery technology of a UK technology company
Mercedes announces that its next-generation eSprinter electric vans Mainland China remains the top EV market in the world
will be sold in the U.S. by 2023 Price of spodumene, a source of lithium mainly mined in Australia,
increases sharply
2021 ⚫ Governments worldwide increase their influence on the eMobility Japan announces that only EVs will be on sale after 2030
industry in terms of both incentives and regulations
Clean and renewable energy is increasingly integrated into the grid 2022 ⚫ In February, India’s government announces battery-swapping
to further reduce the environmental impact of charging EVs policies and interoperability standards for EVs in its annual budget
EV maker Rivian Automotive is listed on the NASDAQ in the world’s Ford announces plans to increase investments in EVs to US$20
largest IPO in 2021 billion
Jaguar announces the in-house development of its new EV platform

13

Sourc es: Company information; Press releases

 Evolution of electric vehicles: Timeline (4/4)
Evolution (4/4)

2023 ⚫ Tesla Model Y becomes the best-selling car worldwide in Q1, a first
for an EV
In August, the Indian government announced plans to introduce
10,000 electric buses in 100 cities across the country over the next
10 years for an estimated budget of US$6.9 billion

2024 ⚫ BYD launches a new EV factory in Thailand, first in Southeast Asia

BMW announces intentions to invest more than US$700 million into
upgrading its Munich factory, with the goal of commencing
production of next-generation “Neue Klasse” electric vehicles by
2026

14

Sourc es: Company information; Press releases; WSJ

 EV sales nearly reached the 14-million-unit mark in 2023
Electric vehicles: Sales (1/2)

Global plug-in electric vehicle sales in thousands The global plug-in electric vehicle market has witnessed robust growth over the
past few years, with sales increasing from around 120,000 in 2012 to 13.8 million in
2023, growing at a CAGR(1) of almost 54%. Notably, the sales figure increased by
13.800
nearly 35.3% in 2023

over 2022. Stringent government regulations on carbon emissions, subsidies and

other incentives, sharp reductions in battery prices, improvements in charging
10.200
infrastructure, and the rise of the environmentally responsible consumer are some
+54%(1) of the factors that drove this growth.

Mainland China is in the lead in terms of electric vehicles, with a sales share of over
6.600 59% in 2023, having sold over 8.1 million electric cars in that year alone. In 2023,
the U.S. and Germany lagged far behind with a 10% and 5% sales share and sold
1,390,000 and 700,000 electric cars, respectively. France, the UK, and the
2.980 Netherlands are close together with a sales share of 8% and combined sales of
2.060 2.080 around 1,130,000 cars.
1.180
550 760
120 201 330

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

15 Notes: (1) CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Mainland China is the leading country in terms of EV sales
Electric vehicles: Sales (2/2)

PEV(1) and PHEV(2) sales in selected countries in thousands Share of leading countries in PEV(1) and PHEV(2) sales in 2023

Mainland China 5.900 8.100 14,000

16,6%
990 1.390
U.S. 2,380

1.5% 1.4%
Germany 830 700 1,530 3,3%
3,4%
340 470
France 810
370 5,1% 58,7%
UK 450 820
210 10,1%
The Netherlands 137 347
193
Belgium 97 290
Mainland China Germany UK Belgium
2022 2023 U.S. France The Netherlands Others

16 Notes: (1) Plug-in Evs (2) Plug-in Hybrid EVs

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Electric vehicles stock (PEV and PHEV) by country in thousands
Electric vehicles: Stock

Country 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Country 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Mainland China 630.0 1,210.0 2,240.0 3,370.0 4,490.0 7,800.0 14,100.0 21,800.0 South Korea 10.6 25.3 60.6 100.0 144.0 234.0 357.0 519.0

United States 570.0 760.0 1,120.0 1,450.0 1,740.0 2,220.0 3,010.0 4,800.0 Italy 8.5 13.4 23.0 40.0 99.0 230.0 350.0 490.0

Germany 66.0 104.0 165.0 240.0 610.0 1,250.0 1,860.0 2,500.0 Belgium 16.2 30.5 44.0 60.0 105.0 172.0 270.0 470.0

UK 85.0 129.0 186.0 251.0 410.0 710.0 950.0 1,580.0 Spain 9.3 16.3 28.0 45.0 88.0 155.0 226.0 360.0

France 84.0 147.0 188.0 255.0 440.0 740.0 1,050.0 1,570.0 Denmark 9.8 10.6 15.2 25.0 62.0 145.0 210.0 310.0

Norway 114.0 180.0 247.0 33.0 490.0 630.0 790.0 900.0 Switzerland 16.0 25.0 35.0 50.0 84.0 139.0 201.0 276.0

Netherlands 112.0 118.0 139.0 202.0 268.0 380.0 520.0 700.0 Finland 3.2 7.1 15.4 29.7 55.7 100.0 145.0 224.0

Sweden 26.5 43.0 66.0 97.0 176.0 300.0 440.0 560.0 Austria 11.4 18.9 26.7 38.0 60.0 106.0 152.0 221.0

Canada 29.0 47.0 87.0 136.0 212.0 300.0 410.0 550.0 Others 55.5 14.9 284.1 220.4 366.3 349.0 549.0 1,630.0

Japan 153.0 200.0 230.0 260.0 300.0 340.0 410.0 540.0 Total 2,010.0 3,100.0 5,200.0 7,200.0 10,200.0 16,300.0 26,000.0 40,000.0

17

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Global EV sales to reach 57 million units by 2035
Forecast

Global PEV(1) and PHEV(2) sales forecast in million units PEV(1) and PHEV(2) stock share by country
57
Stock in 2022 Stock in 2023 Share in the total
Country
in thousands in thousands 2023 vehicle stock
Norway 790.0 900.0 29.0%

Iceland 33.0 44.0 18.0%

41
Denmark 210.0 310.0 11.0%

Sweden 440.0 560.0 11.0%

Netherlands 530.0 700.0 8.3%

Belgium 270.0 470.0 8.2%

Finland 145.0 224.0 8.1%

Mainland China 14,100.0 21,800.0 7.6%

Switzerland 201.0 276.0 5.8%

Germany 1,890.0 2,500.0 5.4%

Canada 380.0 550.0 2.3%

2030 2035 UK 950.0 1,580.0 5.0%

18 Notes: (1) Plug-in EVs (2) Plug-in Hybrid EVs

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Proposed launch of new electric vehicles
Production plans (1/3)

2015 ⚫ Sales 0.5 million EVs Existing key players New entrants

2017 ⚫ Sales 1.2 million EVs

2018 ⚫ Sales 2.0 million EVs

2019 ⚫ Sales 2.1 million EVs

2020 ⚫ Tesla, Audi, Toyota and BMW launched new EV models

2022 ⚫ BMW, Cadillac, Fisker, Hyundai, Kia, Lucid, Lotus, Mazda, Mercedes,
NIO, Nissan, Polestar, Subaru, Tesla, and others plan to launch new
EV models.

2025 ⚫ Sales 21 million EVs

Hyundai, Volkswagen and BMW to have >125 EV models

2035 ⚫ Sales over 57 million EVs

19

Sourc es: Company sources; Press releases; Electrek

 Overview on electric vehicle production and sales plans
Production plans (2/3)

Electric vehicle Electric vehicle

OEMs Targeted sales OEMs Targeted sales
production plans production plans
Expects to launch an EV by 2028 as
Nissan 19 new electric vehicles by 2030 • 55% of sales via EVs by 2030
Apple part of Project Titan. The battery’s -
chemistry will be LFP
Renault Nissan
35 EVs by 2030 -
Audi 10 new EV models by 2026 - Mitsubishi

The Generation 2 Roadster in 2024,

Tesla 20 million electric car sales by 2030
BMW 6 BEVs by 2025 Approximately 10 million PEVs by 2030 up to 10 new models by 2030

7 million electric car sales annually by • 1.5 million EV sales by 2026

Chinese OEMs - • Transform Lexus into an EV-only
2025
brand by 2035
Toyota 10 new EV models by 2026
3 new EV exclusive platforms by • Two next-gen EV batteries by 2027
Daimler 50% of group sales will be EVs by 2030 • 20% of sales via EVs in Western
2025
Europe by 2030
New electric SUV to be launched by 33% of overall sales to be electric by 2026
Ford
2027 and will increase to 50% by 2030 • 80% EV sales in Europe and 55% in
Volkswagen 10 new EV models by 2026
North America by 2030
100% EV sales, including Hydrogen Fuel
Honda 10 new EV models by 2027 Cell vehicles, in North America by 2040 Half of its sales to come from electric
•
500,000 EV sales by 2030 Volvo 6 new BEVs by 2026 vehicles by 2025
• 1 million electric cars in total by 2025
1 million electric vehicles by 2026, 1.6
Hyundai-Kia 15 new EV models by 2027
million by 2030

20

Sourc es: Company sources; Press releases; EV Globe; Business Standard; Hindustan Times; Electrive; Benzinga; Inside Evs; Drive; Electre; CNBC; Reuters
 EV manufacturers invest to increase production capacity
Production plans (3/3)

EV related investment by manufacturers in billion US$

53.6

47.7
44.7
42.2

36.6
35.1 34.1 33.8
31.3 31.2

Volkswagen Ford BYD SAIC Hyundai-Kia Tesla Honda General Motors Geely Toyota

21

Sourc es: ICCT

 BYD sold most EVs in 2023
Comparison of leading brands

Top 10 brands with most EV sales in 2023

2.876.748

1.808.652

500.050 483.941 482.042 475.758

376.038 373.303 350.845 331.623

BYD Tesla BMW GAC Aion Volkswagen SGMW(1) Li Auto Mercedes Changan Geely

22 Notes: (1) SGMW (SAIC-GM-Wuling) Automobile is a joint venture between SAIC Motor, General Motors, and Liuzhou Wuling Motors Co Ltd

Sourc es: CleanTechnica

 Tesla Model Y was the most sold electric car globally in 2023
Comparison of leading models (1/2)

Top 10 selling electric car models in 2023 in thousands

1,212

637
529
456
419
355
254 238 236 228

Tesla Model Y BYD Song Tesla Model 3 BYD Qin Plus BYD Yuan Plus BYD Dolphin BYD Seagull Wuling Hong GAC Aion Y BYD Han
(BEV + PHEV) (BEV + PHEV) EV (Atto 3) Guang MINI EV (BEV + PHEV)

23

Sourc es: Inside EVs

 Lucid Air models have the largest range so far of approximately 500 miles
Comparison of leading models (2/2)

Charging Battery Charging Battery

EV Models Type Battery Used EV Models Type Battery Used
Rate Range Rate Range
Lucid Air PEV 19.2 kW 516 miles 118 kWh lithium-ion BMW i7 PEV 11 kW 321 miles 105.6 kWh lithium-ion

Rivian R1T PEV 11.5 kW 410 miles 149 kWh lithium-ion Ford F-150 Lightning PEV 19.2 kW 320 miles 131 kWh lithium-ion

Tesla Model S PEV 17 kW 402 miles 100 kWh lithium-ion Ford Mustang Mach-E PEV 11 kW 320 miles 88 kWh lithium-ion

Rivian R1S PEV 11.5 kW 400 miles 135 kWh lithium-ion Polestar 2 PEV 11 kW 320 miles 78 kWh lithium-ion

Hyundai Ioniq 6 PEV 11 kW 361 miles 77.4 kWh lithium-ion Chevrolet Equinox EV PEV 19.2 kW 319 miles 85 kWh lithium-ion

Mercedes-EQS Sedan PEV 9.6 kW 352 miles 108.4 kWh lithium-ion Cadillac Lyriq PEV 19.2 kW 314 miles 100.4 kWh lithium-ion

Tesla Model 3 PEV 11.5 kW 342 miles 82 kWh lithium-ion GMC Hummer EV PEV 19.2 kW 314 miles 170 kWh lithium-ion

Mercedes-EQS SUV PEV 9.6 kW 339 miles 118 kWh lithium-ion Acura ZDX PEV 11 kW 313 miles 102 kWh lithium-ion

Tesla Model X PEV 17 kW 335 miles 100 kWh lithium-ion Kia EV6 PEV 11 kW 310 miles 84 kWh lithium-ion

Chevrolet Blazer EV PEV 11.5 kW 324 miles 102 kWh lithium-ion Tesla Model Y PEV 11.5 kW 310 miles 81 kWh lithium-ion

24

Sourc es: Company sources; News articles

CHAPTER 2

Market drivers

There are five major drivers of the electric vehicle market: government policies, the Tesla effect, lower
battery costs. Further, 5G rollouts and the battery-as-a-service model. Governments are trying to achieve
their emission goals set in various global agreements and have devised various incentive schemes to
further electric vehicle sales.

While electric vehicles are a major step in furthering environmental goals, Tesla achieved to change their
image with increased focus on high performance and aesthetic appeal. Further, 5G rollouts and new
business models such as Battery-as-a-Service are expected to drive future growth.
 Subsidies and emission targets are used to foster EV development
Government policies: Overview

Government efforts to control climate change is one of the main drivers of the But these incentives work differently in every country and might only apply in
global electrical vehicle market. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an certain cases, like the incentives in Japan which are only eligible for new vehicle
average gasoline vehicle emits approximately 4.6 metric tons of CO2 per year and owners.
about 400 grams of carbon dioxide (CO2) per mile from its tailpipe. EVs, however,
Global governments are not only offering incentives but are also laying down
utilize a battery instead of a fuel tank and an electric motor in place of an internal
permissible emissions levels for large automobile manufacturers. This leaves them
combustion engine (ICE) and therefore produce no tailpipe emissions. In fact, a fuel
with no choice but to invest in zero-emission vehicles in order to offset the CO2
cell electric vehicle (FCEV) powered by hydrogen emits only water vapor during
emissions by their ICE vehicle fleets.
operation. Furthermore, some studies suggest that extensive adoption of EVs by
2030 could contribute to limiting global warming to below 1.5°C, aligning with the While countries like the UK and France announced that they won‘t allow ICE sales
goals of the Paris Agreement. by 2040, Mainland China runs ahead and set hard targets starting in 2019. These
targets are based on a credit rating system for so-called new energy vehicles, that
include battery-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids. In 2019, car makers needed to
There are several incentives governments use to get people to buy EVs:
have a new energy credit rating of 10% of their annual sales, with this quota having
• Tax exemptions or credits in various forms risen to 18% in 2023. All companies selling more than 30,000 cars annually have to
comply, buy credits from other companies exceeding the quota, or they will be
• Grant
subject to penalties.
• Subsidies

• Non-financial incentives (e.g., road access privileges, dedicated parking spaces)

26

Sourc es: Department of Energy; The Verge; McKinsey; Green Car Congress; The New York Times; The International Council of Clean Transportation; USEPA; Economic Times
 “Several large vehicle markets are proving it’s possible to quickly course-
correct on fossil-fueled vehicle sales in favor of EVs. Global momentum
towards zero emission road transportation is clearly building, and these
advancements should capture policymakers’ attention to act expeditiously.
The complete phase out of fossil-fueled vehicles is in reach.”

Kelly Levin, Chief of Science, Data and Systems Change

Bezos Earth Fund, 2023

27
 Tesla’s model 3 was pre-booked 325,000 times in only one week
Tesla effect (1/2)

For decades, EVs have been perceived as cars that are good for the environment The car managed to get over 325,000 pre-bookings, which translates into US$14
but low on performance and aesthetics. This is primarily because large auto billion in future sales and is the single largest one week launch of any product ever.
manufacturers simply have too much invested in the success of the ICE to invest MacDuffie also noted that EV bookings have been strong despite low gas prices,
any significant amount of money in making an advanced EV. For long, they also indicating that gas prices are not the primary driver of demand for electric vehicles.
perceived the typical EV customer to be one who didn’t care how the car looked or “People buying a US$70,000 to US$110,000 car [which is what Tesla’s premium
how well it ran, as long as it didn’t pollute the environment. However, this models cost] aren’t worried about what they pay out at the gas pump,” he said, “if
perception is changing, according to Wharton management professor and the demand exists even with gas prices being low, it is [because] of that
automobile industry expert John Paul MacDuffie. repositioning away from just an environmental pitch.”

Tesla has played a pivotal role in bringing about this change in mass public A 2023 survey conducted by research platform Attest in collaboration with
perception of the electric car. All its cars, including the Roadster, Model 3, Model S Bloomberg found that 87% of Tesla drivers in the U.S. intend to purchase another
and Model Y, have scored high on both performance and aesthetics, while sticking Tesla, while 81% of potential Tesla buyers in the U.S. are new customers who are
to their zero-emissions policy. The fact that Tesla has now started to eat into the switching from other competing EV brands. Tesla’s cars have achieved the following
market share of not only other plug-in EVs and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles but milestones over a two-year span (2022-2023):
traditional ICEs as well, has prompted big auto manufacturers to develop their own
• In January 2022, the Model 3 ranked #2 for best-selling cars in the UK.
line of advanced EVs. This is why, when one of its marketing blogs for the launch of
Model 3 was titled: “The Week that Electric Vehicles Went Mainstream”, it wasn’t • In May 2023, Tesla reached the weekly production milestone of 5000 Model Y
ignored as just a marketing gimmick. electric crossovers, which translates into 250,000 units annually.

• In September 2023, sales surpassed 5 million units.

28

Sourc es: TechRepublic; Tesla; Wharton; Escalent; Electrek

 Elon Musk is leading several technological advances
Tesla effect (2/2)

Tesla’s founder, Elon Musk has contributed immensely to enhancing the brand’s
image and value which has soared over the last year or so. In fact, Tesla’s market
cap increased by over US$500 billion in 2020 alone and surpassed the US$1 trillion
mark in October 2021, making the company more valuable than the ten major
automobile manufacturers immediately in its wake. Tesla’s market cap stood at
around US$785 billion as of 24 July 2024. The fact that Musk is also involved in
other roles such as space transportation (through his company SpaceX) and solar
power (SolarCity) has further boosted Tesla’s mass appeal.

Another Elon Musk company creating a buzz is, the Boring Company, which works
on a futuristic technology to fundamentally change the public transportation
system. One idea is the hyperloop, where capsules are transported at speeds of
more than 620 miles per hour through vacuum pipes. In June 2018, they were
awarded a contract to build a new highspeed connection from central Chicago to
the O’Hare airport. Even though the project was eventually shelved, the company
built something similar in Las Vegas. Tesla has also announced that it will be using
lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries in its standard Model 3 and Model Y models.
Not only are these batteries less expensive than the lithium-ion batteries, they also
do not depend on scarce raw materials such as cobalt and nickel.

29

Sourc es: Tesla; TechRepublic; CNN; TechCrunch

 “Tesla doesn’t throw a pebble in the pond. They’re throwing boulders and it
does make waves.”

Ivan Drury, Auto pricing analyst

Edmunds, 2023

30
 Lower battery costs make electric vehicles more affordable
Lower battery costs

Volume-weighted average pack and cell price in US$/kWh Profitable production of EVs is of paramount importance if they are to achieve
732 widespread adoption in the years to come. High costs of li-ion battery cells have
been one of the main hindrances to large scale adoption, as they typically lead to
649 higher purchase prices for electric cars than for comparable ICE models. However,
over the last few years, prices of battery packs used in EVs have fallen strongly.
According to a 2023 study conducted by Bloomberg New Energy Finance, battery
prices have dropped nearly 82% from a global average of US$732 per kWh in 2013
502
420 to US$139 per kWh in 2023.
441
Advancements in cell chemistry and manufacturing as well as aggressive pricing by
324
large battery manufacturers looking to defend their market share are the main
282 242 reasons for this sharp drop. This development resulted in EVs becoming cost
198 competitive with ICEs in Europe. Consumers have responded positively to lower
236 172
150 141 151 139
170 battery prices, and this is reflected in the robust increase in global EV stock over the
230 143 120
208 112 120 last few years, which reached over 40 million units in 2023, 60% more than in 2021.
139 108 107
88 72 Even though this growth might seem strong, it dwarfs in comparison to the 65% in
55 52 38 33 31 32
2018, 77% in 2015, and 82% in 2014. In fact, over the last decade, the year-on-year
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
growth only fell below 50% in 2019 and 2020 due to the impact of COVID-19.
Pack Cell

31

Sourc es: BNEF; International Energy Agency (IEA); CleanTechnica; McKinsey; EV-Volumes
 5G rollout to disrupt many aspects of the electric vehicle industry...
5G impact (1/2)

The global 5G rollout is expected to profoundly disrupt many sectors and nowhere is General Motors. The company’s assembly plant, called Factory ZERO at the
is this more evident than in the EV industry. The four main areas where 5G is Detroit-Hamtramck Assembly Center, has installed Verizon’s dedicated 5G fixed
expected to have maximum impact are: manufacturing, V2X, autonomous vehicles, mobile network technology to improve the functioning of its robotics, sensors, and
and new product development. automated guided vehicles (AGVs).

Manufacturing V2X
In June 2020, automobile company Ford announced plans to deploy 5G technology One of the main roles of 5G technology in the EV ecosystem is facilitating vehicle-to-
at its EV manufacturing plant in Essex. The project which received ₤2 million in everything (V2X) communication. V2X allows vehicles to not only communicate with
funding from the UK government, mainly aims to improve the connectivity of each other through highspeed internet connectivity but also with other parts of the
welding machines used to produce batteries and electric motors. The welding traffic system around them. By sharing data with other vehicles and infrastructures,
process generates over half a million pieces of data each minute for just a single V2X creates a large and complex web of information that enhances driver
product, and, thus, requires better connectivity for real-time control, data analysis, awareness and collision avoidance and reduces traffic jams. Other uses could
and remote expert support. In fact, according to Chris White, Ford’s 5GEM project include advanced high-definition (HD) mapping, remote operations, video
lead, the present 4G technology is one of the main barriers in reconfiguring and streaming, and augmented reality (AR) applications. It could allow automobile
deploying next-generation manufacturing systems in the company. The company’s manufacturers to offer advanced and immersive services, thereby creating more
factory in Dearborn, Michigan is also outfitted with a private 5G cellular network lucrative revenue streams. In 2016, eight organizations including Audi, Daimler,
and multi-access edge computing (MEC) from AT&T. BMW, Ericsson, Huawei, Intel, Nokia, and Qualcomm created the 5G Automotive
Association (5GAA) to support the development of various V2X technologies.
Another example of an EV producer integrating 5G into its manufacturing facilities

32

Sourc es: IHS Markit; Capgemini; Telekom; General Motors

 …including new product development and deployment of autonomous vehicles
5G impact (2/2)

Autonomous vehicles New product development

Achieving level 5 autonomy has been the holy grail of the electric vehicle and Electric vehicle manufacturers, especially those in China have already announced
indeed the broader automobile industry, with both legacy and new auto the launch of various 5G capable cars. Even though most of them have been
manufacturers having tried and failed on numerous occasions. Since autonomous postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, they have started hitting the market in
cars rely on machine-learning algorithms that incrementally perform better as early 2023. One such example is BYD’s Han EV, which is equipped with Huawei’s 5G
more data is added and analyzed, one of the main challenges has been the HiCar system. Other imminent launches include Guangzhou Automobile
limitations posed by the currently prevalent 4G technology. 5G, with expected Corporation’s Aion V, BAIC’s ARCFOX α-T, SAIC Group’s Roewe Marvel R, and Human
download speeds of over 500 Mbps as compared to the current 100 Mpbs, is Horizon’s HiPhi1.
expected to enable manufacturers to not only bridge this gap but to also facilitate
The launch of new 5G chipsets is expected to play a pivotal role in these cars by
the creation of a fully interconnected and intelligent road transportation system.
driving a new wave of advanced functionalities. These chipsets are based on
5G technology is also expected to enhance fleet-charging services for these industry standards from the Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP), which
autonomous EVs. A good example is EVPassport, a provider of EV charging released its 17th version in 2023. Even though Qualcomm released the industry’s
hardware and software platforms, which uses Verizon’s 5G network and mobile first 5G modem-RF system based on this release in June 2021, its applications are
edge compute (MEC) capabilities to reduce latency in charging sessions by over currently restricted to sectors such as airports, stadiums, and offices. Recently,
50%. The technology has also enabled the company to seamlessly shift power in though, there have been notable developments in automotive 5G chipsets. For
real-time to vehicles in greater need, such as those with lower charges. instance, in March 2024, MediaTek and Nvidia introduced the Auto Cockpit CX-1,
CY-1, CM-1, and CV-1 chipsets, designed to deliver AI-driven in-cabin experiences
for smart vehicles.

33

Sourc es: IHS Markit; Capgemini; Telekom; Automotive World; Economic Times
 Battery-as-a-Service model to accelerate large scale EV adoption
Battery-as-a-service

With the battery of an electric vehicle accounting for around 35-40% of its end value This model is particularly gaining traction in Asia, with motorcycle makers in Japan
and being one of the main barriers to large scale adoption, manufacturers have already developing vehicles with shared swapping mechanisms. Additionally, as
started offering Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) in order to drive sales. In this business mentioned below, Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer NIO has been offering
model, manufacturers offer consumers the option of purchasing the electric vehicle battery-swapping technology since 2014. However, this trend is yet to catch on in
without the battery, in order to lower its acquisition cost. the U.S., which is still in the process of building out its charging infrastructure.

The battery can instead be rented from a service provider or swapped with another Below is a list of automobile manufacturers offering Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS):
battery when its charge is exhausted. This novel model has been shown to reduce
• In August 2020, Chinese auto maker NIO launched its BaaS service with
the price of the vehicle by as much as 40%, thereby making it comparable to
subscriptions for a 70-kWh battery pack, starting as low as US$140. Under this
conventional internal-combustion vehicles (ICEs). Additionally, it also offers more
model, the vehicles are offered at a discount of over US$10,000. As of November
convenience, as consumers can now refuel in just a fraction of the time it takes to
2023, NIO had deployed 2,217 battery-swapping stations across six markets,
recharge a battery, while eliminating any maintenance cost. The two popular
facilitating nearly 33 million exchanges for its customers.
renting models are:
• Japanese automotive company Honda has partnered with Yamaha and Piaggio to
• Paying a monthly rental to car companies, irrespective of the distance travelled.
manufacture swappable batteries for light electric vehicles.
• Paying a rental based on the expected number of kilometers covered annually.
• Ample, a U.S. based startup that provides energy delivery solutions for electric
Battery-swapping on the other hand simply involves replacing a discharged or vehicles, has partnered with Uber, to offer battery-swapping services to Uber
partially charged battery with a fully charged one at an authorized swapping drivers in California.
station.

34

Sourc es: McKinsey; NIO; Science The Wire; Reuters

 Arrival of new entrants will give consumers more choice
New entrants

Even though Tesla has been largely responsible for the mainstream adoption of
electric vehicles worldwide, the arrival of new entrants and models is expected to
drive future growth. A few notable examples are mentioned below.

Mercedes-Benz: Even though Mercedes has not been as aggressive with its electric
vehicle strategy as some of the other major automobile manufacturers, it recently
released details of its C-Class EV, incorporating unique LED lighting elements, a
sculpted front grille, and a modern silhouette. The launch is anticipated for 2025.

U.S. OEMs: American legacy manufacturers have invested considerable sums of

money to launch new EV models and ramp up the production of existing ones.
These models include General Motors’ US$27 billion for an electric Hummer
supertruck and an electric version of its top-selling Silverado pickup, among others;
Chrysler's crossover model called Airflow; and Ford’s F-150 Lightning.

Vinfast and Togg: Vietnamese automobile manufacturer Vinfast has entered the
U.S. market with the launch of two all-electric SUV models, a midsize VF e35 and a
larger VF e36. The former is expected to have a range of 310 miles and the latter
422 miles. Togg, a Turkish company, plans to commence pre-orders for its fully
electric C-segment SUV T10X model in Europe by the end of 2024.

35

Sourc es: strategy&; Business Insider; Hindustan Times

CHAPTER 3

Challenges

Five main challenges hinder the adoption of electric vehicles: lack of infrastructure (such as charging
stations), high upfront costs, lack of consumer knowledge and wrong perceptions, pressure from oil
companies and the car manufacturer lobby, and potential long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Not only are charging stations still very few and far between, but they are also usually manufactured by
different suppliers without a standardized charging and payment system. In addition, high upfront costs
make electrical vehicles less attractive than traditional internal-combustion engine cars, mainly due to
the high battery costs which often account for as much as 50% of the total vehicle cost.
 Private investment is needed to develop charging infrastructure…
Lack of infrastructure (1/2)

Even though there is growing consensus on electric vehicles as being the future of of the biggest obstacles to the widespread adoption of electric cars. As more and
mobility, the lack of adequate charging infrastructure and the resultant ‘range more electric cars enter the market driven by government subsidies, improved
anxiety’ among potential buyers continues to hamper industry growth. In fact, performance, and a general willingness among consumers to go green, the need to
according to a June 2023 survey by the Pew Research Center, as many as 53% of build out a robust charging network assumes primary importance.
respondents in the U.S. are not confident that the government will build the
Even though many electric vehicle manufacturers such as Tesla, BMW, Ford, and
required charging infrastructure to support large numbers of EVs on the road.
Volkswagen are ramping up their efforts to develop a comprehensive charging
Compounding the problem are the misgivings about EV charging points and other,
infrastructure, it is the lack of large-scale investment from private companies
related infrastructure among private and public investors, who are waiting for the
looking to establish standalone charging businesses, that is impeding the market.
market to gain more traction before making any significant investments.
While government investments in charging infrastructure were critical to foster
Even though most electric vehicle charging happens at home or at work, an early electric vehicle adoption, private investments are likely to play a pivotal role in
adequate public charging infrastructure is imperative to increase consumer catalyzing subsequent market growth. As a result, governments will now have to
confidence. According to a 2024 survey conducted by software company ChargeLab rely on public-private partnerships or other methods that would encourage private
among 500 EV owners in the U.S., 59% expressed a preference for using public companies to take on a bigger share of public charging infrastructure financing.
chargers on a weekly basis. Additionally, in a survey conducted by research firm
Moreover, strong competition among private companies is anticipated in profitable
Rakuten Insight in India in 2024, involving more than 12,000 respondents, over 35%
urban areas but not rural areas and highways. As a result, the risk runs high that
expressed reluctance to purchase an EV due to concerns about insufficient
large areas will be overlooked and not have charging stations.
charging infrastructure. Therefore, the limited availability of public charging
infrastructure, including a lack of adequate business and financing models is one

37

Sourc es: World B usiness Council for Sustainable Development; BCG; Autoremarketing; Rakuten
 …but private companies face several obstacles
Lack of infrastructure (2/2)

Private companies seeking to develop the charging infrastructure face several Interoperability
obstacles:
Customers who subscribe with one service provider run the risk of not being able
Lack of sustainable business models to charge at other locations or paying premium costs for doing so. This is primarily
because each manufacturer has different standards for connectivity for charging.
Even though the current buzz around electric vehicles has brought the related
For example, Tesla’s superchargers are incompatible with other EVs.
charging infrastructure into the limelight, thin margins and a capital-intensive
business is making private investors wary. This is especially true of platform- As a result, drivers must enroll in each network separately and have multiple
agnostic service providers who are currently shying away from making any long- charging cards in order to charge at a networked public station. Even though
term commitments in light of related bankruptcies (ECOtality and Better Place) and companies like Blink and ChargePoint now have a comprehensive network of
a general lack of viable business models. In fact, Toby Clothier, a finance specialist interoperable charging stations, there are other emerging networks with no current
at Mirabaud Securities, expects these businesses to generate marginal returns, plans for interoperability.
even in the long-term. Therefore, despite the advancements made by companies
like ChargePoint and Greenlot, high installation costs and other market
uncertainties are discouraging the proliferation of other such players. According to
Clothier, the electric vehicle charging space will eventually be dominated by major
oil companies such as Royal Dutch Shell, BP, and Exxon. In fact, in January 2021,
Shell acquired Ubitricity, one of Europe’s largest on-street electric car charging
companies, and in 2023, it acquired Volta, a company operating over 3,000 charging
stations across Europe.

38

Sourc es: KPMG

 “The reliability of public chargers continues to be a problem. The situation is
stuck at a level where one of every five visits ends without charging, the
majority of which are due to station outages.”

Brent Gruber, Executive Director

J.D. Power, 2023

39
 High costs–mainly driven by batteries–prevent mass adoption
High costs

Despite the buzz surrounding Tesla’s disruptive potential in the electric cars The high costs of manufacturing electric vehicles is one of the main challenges
segment, the company only started to make a profit in 2020. In 2019, it incurred a facing the industry currently. Even though operating costs for electric vehicles are
loss of US$665 million before tax on total revenues of US$24.6 billion. The year much lower compared to internal combustion engine cars, upfront costs can be a
before, the loss was even greater at over US$1 billion on revenues of just over lot higher. This is also because electric vehicles are still in the early stages of the
US$21.5 billion. In 2022, its stock fell 65%, thereby eroding over US$700 billion off product adoption curve and the industry has still not reaped the benefits arising
its market valuation. In April 2024, Tesla’s share price fell by 37%, with the market from economies of scale and other efficiencies.
value dropping below US$500 billion.
One of the main factors resulting in high vehicle costs are the costs of components
Similarly, Ford's electric vehicle division is facing financial losses. In the first quarter and batteries, with the battery in an electric vehicle currently accounting for
of 2024, the company reported a US$1.3 billion loss in its electric vehicle and approximately 50% of the total price of the vehicle. Even though battery prices have
software division. Executives project this division to experience a pre-tax loss been falling sharply over the last few years, they are still far away from becoming
ranging from US$5 billion to US$5.5 billion for the entire year. The company has cost competitive with internal-combustion engine cars. According to a 2023 survey
already postponed the planned launches of one of its EVs in Canada and its next- conducted by S&P Global with 7,500 respondents worldwide, 48% believed that
gen pickup truck in the U.S. The company has stated they would delay the electric vehicle prices were too high, causing a barrier to their adoption.
introduction of Ford's next generation of EVs until they can achieve profitability.

Moreover, Rivian, which had the biggest IPO for a U.S. company since Facebook,
revealed large losses as part of the IPO process. According to company officials,
these losses were mainly a result of the company's large capital investments and no
current sales. In fiscal year 2023, Rivian reported a loss of over US$2 billion.

40

Sourc es: Bmwblog; Bloomberg; Tesla annual reports; Shell; Bloomberg; Economic Times; S&P
 “Pricing is still very much the biggest barrier to electric vehicles.”

Yanina Mills, Senior Technical Analyst

S&P Global Mobility, 2023

41
 Lack of consumer knowledge and concern regarding EVs
Consumer knowledge and perception

In a 2023 survey conducted by Deloitte, involving over 1,000 respondents in the UK For example, rechargeable batteries have been known to overheat and catch fire
and 980 in South Africa, approximately 20% and 33%, respectively, expressed and are, therefore, considered unsafe. Additionally, low ranges offered by battery
concerns about their limited knowledge or understanding of EV technology, which packs in the past have led to the coining of a new term, ‘range anxiety’, which refers
can hinder adoption. to the feeling of fear drivers experience from knowing that their battery could run
out of charge and leave them stranded far from a recharging station. This is even
Another survey conducted by Deloitte in the U.S. in 2024, comprising 969
though today’s electric vehicles are comfortably able to handle the average driver’s
respondents, found that 50% identified the time required to charge an all-electric
daily needs. An increase in consumer education and a change in global consumer
vehicle as their primary concern regarding battery-electric vehicles. About 49%
perception is paramount if the electric vehicle industry is to break away and garner
mentioned the driving range as a barrier to adopting fully electric cars, while 30%
mainstream adoption. This is also because mass consumer acceptance—based
cited safety concerns related to battery technology.
greatly on various psychological factors—can go a long way in influencing policies
These studies show that even though the general perception regarding electric designed to promote the rapid adoption of electric vehicles.
vehicles has improved significantly over the years, the industry still faces challenges
According to a 2024 Statista survey(1) of over 10,000 respondents in the U.S., 66%
from a consumer awareness point of view, especially when concerning range and
would consider purchasing a car with an internal combustion engine, while only
safety. Two of the primary reasons for this are, lack of proper education on the
21% would consider one with an electric propulsion. According to Michael Austin,
latest technological developments and misconceptions arising from a history of
VP at BYD America, people need to become comfortable with ‘opportunity charging’
negative connotations. A broad acceptance of electric vehicle technologies depends
their vehicles, just as they did with their cell phones. It took about a decade for the
primarily on consumer sentiment. Electric vehicles have a long history of negative
complete transition from landlines to mobile telephony, and Austin predicts that a
connotations that have clouded people’s perceptions and slowed down adoption.
‘battery-based’ energy revolution from gasoline to electric transportation will
happen.

42 Notes: (1) “Which of these propulsion types do you consider when buying a car”?; Multi pick; U.S. : n= 10,073

Sourc es: Kwik Fit; Energy and Industrial Strategy; KPMG; Ford; Statista Global Consumer Survey, as of July 2024; Deloitte
 Oil companies and OEMs lobby against fast adoption of EVs
Oil companies & car manufacturer lobby

In October 2021, the CEOs of major oil companies such as BP, Chevron, Koch Industries, which has considerable interests in the oil industry, has increased
ExxonMobil, and Shell were accused by the Committee on Oversight and Reform in its efforts to promote the use of fossil fuels, having spent over US$147 million
the U.S. of spreading misinformation about the impact of hydrocarbons on global between 1997 and 2018 to directly finance 90 anti-climate change groups. A total of
warming. American Petroleum Institute is yet another organization that has 15 U.S. states, including Minnesota, San Francisco, and Rhode Island, have sued the
intensified its anti-green measures, including those against electric vehicles. company for a "30-year campaign of deception"' about the impacts of climate
Moreover, top automobile manufacturers have also started lobbying against change.
changes to government climate policies. In fact, according to InfluenceMap, a UK-
Further, Volkswagen and Shell have been accused of trying to curtail the adoption
based independent think tank, Toyota ranks third on the list of “negatively
of electric vehicles in the EU by pushing for greater use of biofuels and CO2
influential” global companies on Paris-aligned climate policy, followed by BMW at
labelling as more efficient ways of mitigating climate change. According to Ulrich
18, Daimler at 24, and Hyundai at 25.
Eichhorn in 2016, VW’s head of research and development, even though hybrids
Accelerating the electrification of transportation infrastructure would be and other electric vehicles are ‘building blocks’ of the future, modern diesel and
resoundingly negative for the oil sector’s credit profile. According to a study by IHS natural gas engines would be mandatory to achieve C02 emissions targets.
Markit, U.S. oil demand could drop by as much as 25% or more between 2019 and
Moreover, a 2016 study by consulting firm Roland Berger and commissioned by
2050, depending on government policies and EV incentive schemes. Moreover, the
companies such as BMW, Daimler, Honda and Toyota, highlights the prohibitive
strong growth of the global electric vehicle market over the last few years also
costs involved in fuel efficiency improvements and the benefits of using biofuels
poses a threat to other sectors such as automotive and electric utilities that use
instead. This is in contrast to an EU study which found biofuels such as palm oil and
biofuels such as gas and coal. Therefore, oil and car companies have upped their
soybean oil producing up to three times as much emissions as diesel oil.
lobbying efforts against the proliferation of electric vehicles.

43

Sourc es: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; Newsweek; InfluenceMap

 Incentives cuts can slow down market growth, mainly in Europe
Incentive cuts

As the adoption of electric vehicles gains momentum throughout North America, In early 2024, Germany's electric vehicle subsidy program was cut short due to a
Europe, and Asia-Pacific, some governments have begun withdrawing related budget crisis, after distributing around €10 billion since 2016. In February 2024, the
incentives. They believe they have done enough to spur market growth at the French government reduced the subsidy from €5,000 to €4,000 for the top 50% of
nascent stages and that manufacturers should shoulder the responsibility of high-income buyers, while maintaining the subsidy at €7,000 for individuals with
continuing to improve vehicle safety, performance and quality. lower incomes.

China, the world's largest market for electric vehicles, has taken the lead by The U.S. is yet another example, with the Treasury Department completely
reducing new energy incentives by 30% in 2022 and completely phasing out all scrapping tax credits for major automobile manufacturers like BMW and Nissan
subsidies by the beginning of 2023. Previously, in 2021, the country had announced and reducing them by 50% for Tesla’s base Model 3.
a new EV subsidy policy which included a 20% year-on-year reduction, reducing the
These cuts in incentives and grants are expected to slow market growth as
subsidy from US$2,480 in 2020 to US$2,013 per vehicle. Similarly, India has reduced
evidenced by China. When the government started to discourage electric vehicle
the subsidy provided under its ”Electric Mobility Promotion Scheme 2024” to 15%
subsidies in 2019, sales declined for five consecutive months and sharply
from the previous 40%.
plummeted due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
In Europe, the cuts have been even more severe: on two occasions in 2021, the UK
It is anticipated that growth in Western Europe will slow down over the short term
reduced grants for electric vehicles. The subsidy currently stands at ₤1,500.
due to cuts in incentives, semiconductor shortages, and a greater push among
Moreover, the upper price limit for eligible car models has been reduced to
automobile manufactures to sell vehicles with internal combustion engines before
₤32,000, down from ₤50,000. Meanwhile, the Valais region in Switzerland has totally
regulations destroy their profitability.
cut subsidies for PHEVs, citing their minimal role in curbing climate change.

44

Sourc es: Strategy&; Forbes; Reuters

CHAPTER 4

Trends

Thanks to easier integration and component control, it is easier to realize self-driving cars using electric
vehicles rather than vehicles with internal-combustion engines. Despite the challenges, lithium-ion
batteries are still expected to dominate the battery market for electric vehicles. Due to their low
operating costs, electric vehicles are also part of the ride-sharing movement. Moreover, the U.S. and
Europe are expected to gain more control over the lithium-ion supply chain. Interestingly, quantum
computing is expected to significantly disrupt the electric vehicle industry resulting in higher battery
ranges, new product launches and autonomous driving. Due to their low operating costs, electric vehicles
are also part of the ride-sharing movement. Moreover, demand for related electronics and software is
expected to grow over the next few years.
 Autonomous driving likely to be closely connected to EV cars
Autonomous cars: Overview (1/2)

In the 2017 annual Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, most of the prototype • Component control: According to Levi Tillemann-Dick in 2016, managing partner
and concept cars demonstrating autonomous capabilities had electric powertrains. at Valence Strategic, a technology consulting firm, it is also simpler to control the
Full autonomous driving, which is expected to be commercially available over the components that make up an electrical vehicle as compared to the internal-
medium to long-term, is perhaps the most captivating development in the entire combustion engine. The electrical vehicle has fewer moving pieces – the battery,
automotive industry. inverter and the electric motor – whereas the internal combustion engine has
about 2,000 small pieces that need to be lubricated for fear of breaking, thereby
What is most interesting is that even though manufacturers of both electric vehicles
making the process a lot more complicated.
and internal combustion engines are investing significantly to adopt this
technology, its penetration is likely to be stronger in the electrical vehicle segment. • Collective market maturation: Even though electrical vehicle sales have been
increasing at a strong pace, they still make up over 2.5% of the entire automobile
This is mainly because of the following factors:
market. The market is still very much in a product innovator phase. At the same
• Easy integration: It is simply easier to integrate autonomous features on an time, full autonomous technology is also in its early stages of development.
electric car as compared to one with an internal-combustion engine. The self- These two technologies are expected to reinforce and accelerate one another,
driving capability of a car draws heavily from its electrical subsystem for its witnessing collective mainstream adoption by 2030.
multiple sensors and advanced computing hardware. Therefore, an electric
vehicles’ high voltage battery is more suitable and provides more design freedom
while implementing the autonomous driving features.

46

Sourc es: DesignNews

 33 million autonomous cars expected to be on the road by 2040
Autonomous cars: Overview (2/2)

Ride-sharing: The shift away from internal-combustion engines is steadily being Definition of automation levels
accompanied by a change in the way people view ownership of cars, with pollution
Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5
control playing a big role in it. According to the Statista Market Insights, the global
ride-hailing market is expected to grow from US$167 billion in 2024 to over US$212 Driver Partial Conditional High Full
billion in 2029. Mark Fields, CEO of Ford, also admitted in 2016 to an ever-growing assistance automation automation automation automation

change in people’s mindsets from owning vehicles to owning and sharing. The vehicle can Driver can The vehicle is in These vehicles are Vehicle can
Interestingly, it is not only ride-sharing companies such as Uber, Lyft, and Nutomy, assist the driver in disengage from full control of designed to perform all
selected some tasks with driving respon- perform all safety- aspects of driving
but also legacy auto makers such as BMW and Volkswagen, who are focusing on functions, e.g. the vehicle taking sibilities under critical functions under all
steering or over but must certain specified and respond to circumstances
launching a fleet of autonomous electric cars.
acceleration/ always be ready conditions, but many dynamic that are usually
deceleration to take control a driver is driving situa- managed by a
With more and more traditional automobile manufacturers and technology and is responsible expected to take tions, requiring human driver,
companies investing heavily in autonomous driving, the market is primed for for most safety control when minimal human without a driver
functions required intervention being present
robust growth over the next few decades. According to a study by research
company IHS, annual sales of self-driving cars are expected to reach approximately
33 million units by 2040, with nearly 76 million vehicles with some level of
autonomy sold by 2035. In value terms, the Boston Consulting Group estimates the
market of autonomous vehicles to stand at US$42 billion by 2025 and to increase to High Human intervention No intervention
US$77 billion by 2035. It also estimates as much as 25% of new sales to be vehicles
with some degree of autonomy by 2035.

47

Sourc es: Boston Consulting Group

 While the U.S. pioneers self-driving cars, China will be the market leader
Autonomous cars: Key highlights

The U.S. pioneers autonomous vehicle deployment First use by technology firms

The U.S. is expected to be the global leader in the initial deployment and adoption Companies such as Alphabet, Uber, and Lyft will be the first to deploy autonomous
of autonomous vehicles, with the total volume in the country expected to reach 7.4 vehicles as part of their mobility services fleets. This is expected to provide
million units in 2040. Europe and Mainland China are next in line with many models consumers with actual hands-on experience with the technology and reduce overall
scheduled for release over the next few years. However, many such scheduled skepticism.
launches have been postponed in the past due to various technology limitations.
European demand to be driven by private ownership
Mainland China is a market leader
As opposed to mobility services driving demand in the U.S., Europe is expected to
Favorable regulations, strong domestic demand, heavy private sector investment, witness more instances of individual ownership of autonomous vehicles, mainly
and rapid advancements in artificial intelligence are four factors propelling due to unfavorable regulations for public use. IHS estimates annual sales of 5.5
Mainland China to the top of the table in terms of total units sold. According to IHS, million in 2040.
14.5 million autonomous vehicles will be sold in the country on an annual basis by
Late deployment and limited adoption in other countries
2040. Moreover, McKinsey estimates revenue from sales of autonomous vehicles
and mobility services to exceed US$500 billion by 2030. Factors such as strong local automotive industries, strict regulations governing
autonomous driving/mobility services and unconducive driving conditions are
expected to limit adoption and deployment in a few countries. Exceptions to this
are countries such as Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Canada.

48

Sourc es: Boston Consulting Group; Fortune; IHS

 “The advanced sensing and computing hardware on an autonomous vehicle
needs a lot of electric power. Compared to an internal combustion engine,
an all-electric battery pack acts as a more stable power source that can
enable higher-powered AV components.”

Why All AVs Should be EVs, General Motors

2023

49
 Mobility services and technology investments drive the market
Autonomous cars: Key drivers

Mobility services Reduced mortality and spending on public safety

Mobility services such as ride-hailing introduced by companies such as Uber and An Intel study also concluded that increased use of autonomous cars would result
Lyft are the primary drivers of industry growth and will be directly responsible for in the saving of many lives, which would lead to cost savings on public safety of
the mainstream adoption of autonomous cars, much before individual ownership over US$234 billion between 2035 and 2045.
gathers momentum.
Economic benefit
Technology investment
According to estimates by the World Economic Forum, driverless cars are expected
Huge investments in transportation technologies by auto manufacturers, providers to generate over US$1 trillion worth of ‘economic benefits to consumers and
of mobility services and technology companies will result in new partnerships. A society’. Another study by Intel and Strategy Analytics claims that autonomous
technology enabled ecosystem and new business models will drive further growth. vehicles will be responsible for US$7 trillion worth of economic activity and new
Subsequently, technology advancement will enhance the ability of OEMs to scale up efficiencies annually by 2050. This will include about US$4 trillion from driverless
and alleviate many of the current supply chain limitations. ride-hailing and US$3 trillion from driverless delivery and business logistics.
Pollution control initiatives Smart infrastructure

As stated before, governments around the world are increasingly implementing With the influx of more AVs on the roads, municipal bodies will start enhancing
policies to phase out ICE vehicles in favor of the more environmentally friendly transportation infrastructure by modernizing highways and thoroughfare with
hybrids and electric vehicles. The fact that most autonomous cars will have an smart technology for road signs, traffic lights, and merge lanes. Better
electric power train is expected to further drive the market. infrastructure will rapidly accelerate autonomous car adoption.

50

Sourc es: Boston Consulting Group; Credit-Suisse; Fortune; HIS; MIT

 Deep learning making fully autonomous cars a reality
Autonomous cars: Deep learning

Even though the required hardware such as sensors, cameras, radars, and Google, the global leader in self-driving technology, launched the testing phase of
ultrasound systems have contributed heavily to making autonomous cars a reality, its self-driving car called Waymo in 2017. Since then, its autonomous vehicles have
it is really the developments in artificial intelligence technologies that are playing driven 20 million miles on public roads and over 10 billion miles in computer
the most pivotal role. simulation. Waymo also started a self-driving taxi service in Arizona in 2018. Tesla
has also rolled out the Model 3 with full self-driving capability, equipped with its
Deep learning architectures enable cars to learn from their experiences and adapt
own custom chip (ASIC), after replacing Nvidia’s AI system that uses deep learning
to real-time situations without human intervention. This is particularly important
to teach the car to handle itself. In June 2024, the company also announced plans
because it is impossible for software engineers to write programs to cover every
to launch its full self-driving (FSD) technology in China, following a partnership with
variable or driving situation a car may face. In fact, deep learning is solely
BYD.
responsible for the evolution of cars from driver assist technologies to fully
autonomous vehicles. Even though Google and Tesla are the most visible brands chasing driverless
technology, a host of auto manufacturers and other technology companies are also
For deep learning to be successful, it is imperative that the algorithms are fed with
partnering with each other to develop cars with varying levels of autonomy. A few
large amounts of data. One of the most important trends driving automation in the
key examples can be found in the following table.
industry is the growth in the number of connected cars. As autonomous cars share
driving experiences and readings with each other, algorithms use that data to
adapt to various situations without having to experience them firsthand.

51

Sourc es: Company sources

 Overview on autonomous car models
Autonomous cars: Autonomous car models

Autonomy Range Launch Autonomy Range Launch

Company Model Company Model
level in miles year level in miles year
Alphabet Waymo Level 4 N/A 2018 General Motors Cruise Origin Level 4 - Undecided

Jaguar Land Rover /

aicon Level 5 800 Undecided Jaguar I-Pace Level 5 298 Undecided
Waymo

A9 e-tron Level 4 222 2024 Kia Niro EV Level 2 253 2022

Audi
Q6 e-tron Level 4 388 2024 Mercedes-Benz EQS Level 3 352 2024

Elaine Level 4 398 Concept Navya Autonom Cab Level 4 N/A 2018

Baidu-BAIC Group Apollo Moon Level 4 N/A 2024 Porsche Mission E Level 4 300 Concept

BMW 7 series Level 3 321 2024 SYMBIOZ Level 4 630 Concept

Faraday Future FF91 Level 4 381 2023 Renault Easy Drive Level 2 N/A 2019

Rimac Verne Level 4 125 Concept EZ-ULTIMO Level 4 310 Concept

Volvo EX90 Level 4 308 2024 Toyota Concept-i Level 5 186 Concept

52

Sourc es: Autocar Professional; Carwow; Bloomberg; CNN; The Verge; Greentech Media; Digital Trends; Businessinsider; Green Car Congress; Top Gear
 “Deep learning is the best enabling technology for self-driving cars. You hear
a lot about all these things on a car: the sensors, the cameras, the radar, and
LIDAR. What you need are the brains to make an autonomous car work
safely and understand its environment.”

Sameep Tandon, CEO and co-founder

Drive.ai

53
 Zoox is the market leader in terms of disengagement
Autonomous cars: Disengagement (1/2)

With the development of autonomous vehicles still in a nascent stage, companies Interestingly, even though 40 companies have valid permits to test autonomous
around the world are urged by their respective governments to carry out tests to vehicles on Californian roads, only six of them can transport passengers. These
assess their potential for successful integration with other means of public include Apollo, AutoX, Nuro, Waymo, WeRide, and Zoox.
transport. Over the last few years, these tests were required to be carried out on
In terms of disengagement rates, Zoox is the leader with 30,000 miles driven per
public roads and have mostly proved to be successful, with only a few accidents
disengagement, followed by WeRide and Waymo.
reported.

The California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) released a disengagement

report on all licensed entities testing autonomous vehicles on public roads in the
state for the year 2023. Disengagement is defined as the situation when the
autonomous feature in a vehicle is deactivated due to a mechanical or operational
failure, forcing the driver to take control.

Companies testing self-driving cars in California are required to submit an annual

report on the number of miles their vehicles were successfully deployed in
autonomous mode and how often the driver had to take control. According to the
DMV, out of the 40 registered companies, only 21 reported testing in 2023,
although around 6 million miles were driven, reflecting a slight decrease over the
previous year.

54

Sourc es: Disengagement Reports 2023; The Last Driver License Holder; The Verge
 Zoox cars average nearly 30k miles before being disengaged
Autonomous cars: Disengagement (2/2)

Miles before a disengagement for leading companies in 2023(1)

177.602

21.191 17.311 17.077

5.104 4.004 2.213 429 317 284
Zoox WeRide Waymo Pony.AI Apollo DiDi Nuro Vueron Gatik.AI Nissan
(Alphabet)

55 Notes: (1) Between Dec 2022 and Nov 2023

Sourc es: DMV California

 Large OEMs work on car-sharing models with electric vehicles
Shared cars: Overview

The current proliferation of electric vehicles is being accompanied by the rise of the Below is a list of OEMs and independent companies that launched electric car-
car-sharing model. Electric vehicles are simply better suited to car-sharing than a sharing programs:
car with an ICE. This is primarily because the operational costs of running an
• BlueSG: A unit of France’s Bollore Group launched an electric car-sharing
electric vehicle are lower than those for a gas-powered one. Therefore, the payback
program in Singapore in December 2017 with an initial deployment of 80 cars
on the price premium for an electric vehicle will be realized more quickly in case of
and 32 charging stations. It currently has a fleet of 667 shared electric Bluecar
shared fleets, as opposed to if it’s used by just an individual. According to Morgan
vehicles and 1,487 charging stations, spread across 374 locations around the
Stanley estimates, vehicles in car-sharing fleets have the potential to be utilized at a
country.
rate of about 50% a day compared with 4%, or less than an hour a day, for most
privately owned vehicles. • Ford Drive: In September 2023, Ford teamed up with Uber in California to
introduce Ford Drive, a lease program offering drivers the option to use zero-
Ride-sharing services being deployed by companies like Uber, Lyft, Kuaidi Dache,
emission Ford Mustang Mach-E battery-electric crossovers for their work trips.
and Ola are disrupting the current ownership model that leaves cars significantly
under-utilized. Global governments are coming out in favor of these companies in • Honda: Launched the NeuV (New Electric Urban Vehicle) for the ride-sharing
order to reduce congestion-related pollution and the need for additional road market. The two-seat vehicle uses AI technology to study the driver’s reactions
infrastructure. The positive environmental impact is potentially the biggest winner, and patterns and makes recommendations on music and tips on daily driving
and the induction of shared electric vehicles only multiplies this effect. Large auto habits.
manufacturers such as Ford, Toyota, Volkswagen, and BMW are also launching • Volkswagen: In 2019, Volkswagen launched its electric car-sharing service
electric car-sharing operations, as they seek new ways to adapt to congestion and WeShare in Berlin and extended operations to Hamburg in 2021. However, the
changing consumer attitudes. business was sold to car-sharing startup Miles Mobility in 2022.

56

Sourc es: Company sources; Electrek; Newsweek

 India leads the game in terms of car-sharing use with 32% usage
Shared cars: Consumer insights (1/2)

Share of respondents who booked car-sharing(1) in the last 12 months When it comes to the use of car-sharing, Indians lead the way with a 32% usage
India 32% rate. The Statista Consumer Insights Global survey compared 56 countries(2) based
South Africa 27% on interviews with more than 60,000 consumers and found that South Africa and
Colombia 18% Colombia follow with car-sharing usage rates of 27% and 18%, respectively.
Mainland China 17%
New Zealand 16% The U.S., which is usually the leader in new business models, is in ninth place with
Australia 14% 14%. Generally, the field is dominated by Asian and African countries. This is not
Chile 14% surprising, as car makers have many car-sharing alliances in the Asia-Pacific region.
Ireland 14%
U.S. 14% Looking at user demographics, there are quite a few differences between countries.
Dominican Republic 13% In India, for example, car-sharing users are young (age 20-29 years) and from
Peru 13% middle- to high-income households.
Romania 12%
In the U.S., the age profile of car-sharing users is similar. However, the percentage
Switzerland 12%
Lithuania 10% of females using car-sharing services in the country is lower, as compared to India.
Mexico 10%
UK 10%
Canada 9%
Germany 9%
Italy 9%
Norway 9%

57 Notes: (1) Short-time car rentals (2) Only a selected few countries are shown in the graph; “Which of these services have you book ed online (website or app) in the past 12 months?”; Multi Pick; Statement: “car-sharing (short-time)”;
n=7,083
Sourc es: Statista Global Consumer Survey, as of May 2024
 Car-sharing user demographics in India and the U.S.
Shared cars: Consumer insights (2/2)

Users by age in India Users by income(1) in India Users by gender in India

53%
47%
39% 42%
36% 34%
24%
18%
4% 3%

18-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 Low Middle High Female Male

Users by age in the U.S. Users by income(1) in the U.S. Users by gender in the U.S.
64%
53%
41%
36%
27%
21% 23% 23%

4% 5%

18-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 Low Middle High Female Male

58 Notes: (1) Low income depicts bottom 33% of households, medium income depicts mid 33% of households, high income depicts top 33% of households“Which of these services have you booked online (website or app) in the past
12 months?”; Multi Pick; Statement: “car-sharing (short-time)”; India: n=1,288; the U.S.: n=1,359
Sourc es: Statista Global Consumer Survey, as of May 2024
 China has the largest number of EV sharing alliances
Shared cars: Car-sharing

OEM origin Car-sharing OEM origin Car-sharing

OEM Availability OEM Availability
country affiliate country affiliate
BAIC BAIC Mobility China Choimobi Yokohama, Japan
Nissan
BYD Didi Chuxing China E-Share mobi Japan
Japan
Chery Gofun Chuxing China Subaru DriveMyCar Australia

Geely Group Microcity China Toyota Ha:mo Japan, Thailand

Mainland China
JAC Motors 1byongche China Deal Car South Korea
Hyundai
Kandi Microcity China Green Car South Korea
South Korea
Lifan Pand-Auto China WiBLE South Korea
Kia
SAIC Evcard China Green Car South Korea

Germany Volkswagen Zoomcar India Zoomcar India

U.S. Ford
India Mahindra & Mahindra Zoomcar India Carhood Australia

59

Sourc es: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

 Europe and U.S. to play a key role in the li-ion battery supply chain
Battery supply chain (1/2)

China currently dominates the global lithium-ion battery supply chain, largely due The U.S., which placed second in the 2021 study, has dropped to third in 2022, but
to its robust domestic demand as well as huge public and private investments, and is still one of the strongest countries in this space. The industry received a major
favorable policies. According to a 2024 report by McKinsey, China is expected to boost due to Joe Biden’s victory in the U.S. presidential election, which bodes well
represent 45% of the total Li-ion demand by 2025. It also controls 80% of global raw for the adoption of electric vehicles in the country. In fact, within hours of assuming
material refining, 77% of cell capacity, 90% of anode and electrolyte production, office Biden re-signed the Paris Agreement for climate change, which had been
and 75% of overall battery cell manufacturing capacity. As of 2023, the lithium-ion previously repealed by the Trump administration. Moreover, initiatives such as
battery capacity in China stood at 2,051 GWh, according to S&P Global. Tesla’s commitment to aggressive lithium mining, and increased participation and
cooperation of private and public sectors, are expected to move the country up the
Interestingly, Europe, Canada, and the U.S. are expected to play more important
lithium-ion supply chain, with an estimated overall ranking of three and a ranking
roles in this supply chain in the years to come. A boom in European electric vehicle
of one in cell component manufacturing, by 2025.
demand is expected to drive cell production closer to home, especially considering
the COVID-19 pandemic which has emphasized the importance of local supply Surprisingly, Canada rose to number two in the 2022 rankings due to its large raw
chains and the ability for trade-free tariff in the region. As a result, European material resources and mining activity, as well as its favorable positioning in
countries such as Germany, Sweden, Finland, and Norway have already been environmental, social, and governance factors (ESG).
placed in the top ten countries of 2022 in terms of lithium-ion battery supply chain
ranking according to the 2022 BNEF study.

60

Sourc es: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; Utility Dive

 China leads the global lithium-ion battery supply chain
Battery supply chain (2/2)

Global lithium-ion battery supply chain ranking 2022

China 1 1 17 9 1

Canada 3 8 6 4 10

U.S. 6 4 16 5 2

Finland 9 15 2 1 11

Norway 18 10 1 3 7

Germany 21 6 4 7 2

South Korea 17 2 10 6 5

Sweden 21 9 3 2 8

Japan 13 3 30 12 82

Australia 2 15 9 13 11

Raw materials Manufacturing Environment Regulations, Innovation & Infrastructure Battery demand

61

Sourc es: BNEF

 “The Americans are very aware of that past dynamic and they are putting a
lot of money into research and manufacturing investment. So, [in] the next
round of technologies you could imagine, if [US companies] develop a
completely new battery, chemistry or something like that, that could be a
real advantage.”

Alex Wang, Faculty co-director

US’s Emmett Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, 2023

62
 Quantum computing could deliver higher range batteries
Quantum computing (1/2)

Quantum computing involves the use of qubits, which are essentially sub-atomic lithium-ion batteries. This involves the creation of accurate simulations of
particles such as electrons and photons, to deliver significantly higher amounts of molecular events in a battery to more precisely determine their fundamental
processing power, compared to conventional computers. Recent advancements behavior and find a compound’s most stable configuration. Since this process
such as IBM’s latest quantum computer Q System One, and D-Wave Technologies’ C involves complex calculations to track the interaction between all particles in a
chip with 5,000 “qubits” have opened-up various possibilities for potential molecule, it is not possible to use standard computers.
applications across industries.
In addition, Hyundai, in partnership with quantum computing company IonQ, is
Industry experts estimate the automotive industry to be one of the leaders in the using the technology to improve lithium-ion batteries. Using chemical simulation
adoption of quantum technology over the medium to long-term. In fact, according and computational acceleration provided by quantum computing, the company
to McKinsey estimates, almost 10% of all current potential use cases under hopes to increase the capacity and durability of the batteries. The partnership is
exploration are expected to be ideal for automobile manufacturers and other pivotal to Hyundai’s Strategy 2025, which includes selling over 550,000 electric
players across the value chain. Listed below are some of the key application areas vehicles annually and launching over 12 new models. Additionally, quantum
in the electric vehicle industry: computing also enables researchers to get a better understanding of the quantum
weirdness of elements, often described as quantum entanglement (1).
Higher range batteries

One of the main impact areas of quantum computing in the electric vehicle industry
is the development of higher range batteries. Daimler is currently using the
technology to further research the development of lithium-sulfur (Li-S) batteries,
that are not only more powerful and long lasting but also cheaper compared to

63 Notes: (1) Entanglement is a property of quantum mechanics, in which, when one particle changes its state, so does its entangled ‘partner,’ simultaneously.

Sourc es: The Quantum Daily; McKinsey; Forbes

 Quantum computing could be the key to achieving level 4 and 5 autonomy
Quantum computing (2/2)

New product development

Suppliers will be able to use the technology to simulate processes related to areas
such as chemical manufacturing and fluid dynamics, thereby enabling them to
improve the kinetic properties of materials such as lightweight structures and
adhesives. Further, manufacturers of fuel tanks and tubing can use their expertise
in liquid storage and transportation systems to produce cooling circuits for
batteries. Therefore, companies across the value chain are making robust
investments to develop their quantum computing capabilities. An example is
Bosch’s 2019 investment in the Harvard quantum computing spinout called Zapata
Computing to improve its expertise in sensor technology and cryptography.

Autonomous driving
Despite the progress made by EV manufacturers over the last decade, they haven’t
been unable to achieve level 4 or level 5 autonomy. Industry experts have tipped
quantum computing as the missing link to develop a completely autonomous
vehicle, owing to its much higher processing power and minimal error rates. It is
not only expected to facilitate faster analyses of roadway data but to also deliver
‘quantum sensors’ with the ability to ‘see’ further than conventional sensors.

64

Sourc es: The Quantum Daily; McKinsey; Forbes

 Strong demand for automotive electronics and software
Automotive electronics and software

The global automotive industry is currently at an inflection point, gradually moving Automotive software and electronic components market in billion US$
from a decentralized architecture where functions run on dedicated and 462
independent electronic control units (ECUs) to a more centralized one with
50
dedicated domain controllers. The future is expected to usher in an era of fifth
33
generation virtual domains, where independent control units control the functions 353
46
of different domains. This shift, which in turn is being driven by the growing 39
26 47
popularity of autonomous, connected, electric, and shared (ACES) vehicles, is
257 31
expected to create demand for related software and electronic components such 19 26
12
as domain control units (DCUs), ECUs, harnesses, switches, smart sensors, displays, 23 142
5
and software. According to a 2023 McKinsey study, the global market for 126
automotive software and electrical and electronic components is projected to reach 112
US$462 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.5% since
2019. 144
86 105
By 2025, the highest revenue is expected to be generated by components such as
harnesses, controls, switches, and displays, followed by domain control units and 2019 2025 2030
software. ECUs/DCUs Sensors
Other electronic components(1) Integration, verification, and validation(3)
Power electronics(2) Software (functions, operating systems)

65 Notes: (1) Includes harnesses, controls, switches and displays (2) Excluding battery cells (3) Includes functions, OS and middleware

Sourc es: The Quantum Daily; McKinsey; Forbes

CHAPTER 5

Battery technology

Lithium-ion batteries dominate the market mainly because they deliver the highest range at the lowest
cost when compared to any other battery.
However, due to limitations such as long charging times, the battery’s size, and heavy weight, as well as
limited battery capacity, companies such as Toyota, Volkswagen, Nissan, and Tesla are now investing in
solid-state, lithium-sulfur, and zinc-air batteries for their future models.
Further, universities, technology companies, and independent battery start-ups are collaborating to
develop other types of batteries, such as aluminum-ion, smart membranes, and graphene-based
supercapacitors to enable faster charging times and longer life cycles.
 Innovations in battery technologies are key to widespread EV adoption
Overview

The battery is the most important and expensive component in an EV and currently However, the last few years have witnessed a steep decline in price as
accounts for roughly half its cost. A study by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) manufacturers increase their production scale and develop more cost-effective
estimates this share to fall to 18% of the cost by 2030. The same study also manufacturing methods. Various experts believe that a major adoption hurdle will
estimates that battery prices will have to fall by more than half before EVs can be eliminated when EV batteries are able to deliver a range of 400-500 miles on one
compete with ICE prices. charge at a cost of around US$100 per kWh. Interestingly, this is already happening
in China with the price of battery packs for electric buses. According to BNEF’s 2023
Companies and research organizations all around the world are undertaking large
Battery Price Survey, the global average battery pack price was estimated at
scale innovation projects to improve their chemistries in order to achieve longer
US$139 per kWh in 2023.
ranges, faster charging times, and increased safety.
Nevertheless, one of the most important challenges facing battery manufacturers
The lithium-ion (Li-ion) family of batteries - the most widely used in EVs globally,
are the limited global reserves of lithium and cobalt, the key elements that go into
mainly relies on a combination of cobalt, manganese, nickel, graphite, and other
making lithium-ion batteries. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, lithium-ion
primary components. Other battery types include solid-state, aluminum-ion,
batteries in cell phones and the growing electric car industry make up about 49% of
lithium-sulphur, lithium-iron, graphene-based supercapacitors, and lithium-air.
the global cobalt demand. However, with a majority of global cobalt reserves
Some of these are already in production while others are in various stages of
located in Congo - a politically unstable region where conducting business is often
development.
unpredictable and unethical - manufacturers face an uphill task in the years to
Despite their popularity, high costs and the limited range available on a single come.
charge have been the main barriers preventing widespread adoption of li-ion
powered EVs, even though their operating costs are much lower than those of ICEs.

67

Sourc es: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; B attery University

 Congo produces the most cobalt…
Global cobalt production and reserve (1/2)

Cobalt production in 2023(1) in metric tons

170,000

17.000

8.800

6.600
4.600
4.000 3.800
3.200 3.000 2.900 2.800
2.100
500

Congo Indonesia Russia Australia Madagascar Philippines Cuba New Papua New Turkey Canada U.S. Other
(Kinshasa) Caledonia Guinea countries

68 Notes: (1) Estimated figures

Sourc es: U.S. Geological Survey

 …and also has the highest reserves
Global cobalt production and reserve (2/2)

Economically viable cobalt reserve in 2023 in metric tons

6,000,000

1.700.000

780.000

500.000 500.000

260.000 250.000 230.000

100.000 91.000 69.000 49.000

Congo Australia Indonesia Cuba Philippines Russia Canada Madagascar Turkey U.S. Papua New Other
(Kinshasa) Guinea countries

69

Sourc es: U.S. Geological Survey

 Many breakthroughs are made to improve lithium-ion batteries
Lithium-ion battery (1/2)

Lithium-ion batteries are the most widely used energy storage systems in electric Technological breakthroughs
vehicles globally. This is simply because they deliver the maximum range at the
• In December 2016, Watt Laboratory, part of Huawei’s Central Research Institute,
lowest cost, compared to all other currently available technologies.
launched a graphene-assisted lithium-ion battery, which allows them to be
The battery chemistry includes a positive electrode, typically made of lithium-cobalt functional in a 60-degree Celsius environment—10 degrees higher than the
oxide or lithium iron phosphate, and a negative electrode, usually made of carbon existing limit. According to the company, this allows the batteries to operate for
(graphite). The electrolyte between them is usually liquid but new research is twice as long as ordinary lithium-ion batteries.
focusing on polymeric electrolytes, which are more stable.
• In October 2017, Toshiba launched a next-generation lithium-ion battery with a
The main areas where they score over other batteries are: new anode material called titanium niobium oxide. This doubled the capacity of
the anode of current batteries and is expected to give EVs a 320 km range—three
• High cyclability(1)
times the distance possible after only six minutes of ultra-rapid charging.
• Lower maintenance
• In March 2023, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Argonne National Laboratory
• Low self-discharge rate announced the development of a lithium-air battery that uses a solid electrolyte
• Rapid technological advancements due to widespread adoption instead of a liquid to increase the battery’s energy density by up to four times.

• In July 2023, researchers at Rice University replaced the traditional anode

material with silicon to bond with more lithium ions, thereby increasing the
battery’s lifespan by as much as 44%.

70 Notes: (1) High cyclability is the number of times the battery can be recharged while still maintaining its efficiency

Sourc es: Company sources; Press releases

 For instance, new technologies that enable lithium-ion batteries to be charged
up to 5 times faster
Lithium-ion battery (2/2)

Technological breakthroughs

• In February 2020, researchers at the WMG department at the University of

Warwick claimed to have developed a new technology that enables lithium-ion
batteries to be charged up to five times faster than current limits.

• In July 2020, scientists at the Texas A&M University’s College of Engineering

introduced carbon nanotubes into the electrode of a lithium metal battery which
has the potential to drastically reduce charging times.

• Lithium-ion batteries use graphite anodes instead of silicon anodes, despite the
latter’s significantly greater energy density (10x). Silicon anodes have a higher
degree of volatility that makes them unstable. In September 2021, engineers at
the University of California found a way to overcome this shortcoming in silicon
anodes by replacing the liquid electrolyte with sulfide-based solid electrolyte.

• In November 2023, Toshiba Corporation introduced a novel lithium-ion battery

featuring a cobalt-free cathode material with a high 5V-class potential, effectively
reducing the generation of performance-degrading gases from side reactions.

71

Sourc es: Company sources; Press releases; FirstIgnite; Toshiba

 Volkswagen & Toyota planning on using solid-state batteries
Solid-state battery

Almost every electric vehicle in the market today is powered by lithium-ion Technological breakthroughs
batteries. However, these batteries have their limitations including charge times,
• In May 2021, researchers at Harvard University announced that they had
weight, size and the amount of charge they can hold. Therefore, automotive
developed a lithium metal solid-state battery that could be charged and
companies such as Bolloré, Volkswagen, Toyota and the Renault Nissan alliance
discharged at least 10,000 times. This technology could extend the lifetime of
and technology companies such as Sakti3 and QuantumScape are investing heavily
electric vehicles to around 10-15 years, without replacing the battery even once,
in solid-state batteries.
while also achieving full charge within 10-20 minutes.
Solid-state batteries make use of a solid material instead of the liquid electrolyte
• In June 2023, researchers at Osaka Metropolitan University claimed to have
currently used in lithium-ion cells. This reduces the chances of electrolyte leaks and
achieved an advanced level of stabilization of the high-temperature phase of
fires, increases battery lifetime, and decreases the need for expensive and heavy
Li3PS4—a critical material for all-solid-state batteries—thereby attaining
cooling systems.
significantly improved ionic conductivity even at room temperature.
Bolloré, Sakti3 and QuantumScape are current examples of companies investing in
• In July 2024, researchers from the University of Chicago developed a sodium
solid-state batteries for electric cars. Toyota plans to have these batteries in all its
solid-state battery without an anode, highlighting its environmental friendliness,
production vehicles by 2025.
cost-effectiveness compared to lithium-ion batteries, and capability for rapid
charging.

72

Sourc es: Company sources; Press releases; Science Daily

 Aluminum-ion batteries catch up with regards to their lower density
Aluminum-ion battery

Aluminum-ion batteries offer many advantages over the commonly used lithium- According to Tang Yongbing, leader of the research team, the AGDIB has the
ion batteries in terms of safety, charging time and cycle life. following advantages compared to conventional lithium-ion batteries:

In April 2015, a team of researchers at Stanford University working on advanced • Ca. 50% lower production costs
battery packs developed an aluminum-ion battery that reduced the chances of
• Ca. 1.3-2.0 times higher specific density
catching fire compared to lithium-ion batteries. The aluminum-ion battery also
features fast charging capabilities, has a longer life cycle and does not pollute the • Ca. 1.6-2.8 times higher energy density
environment. In June 2021, the Australian company Graphene Manufacturing Group (GMG)
One of main disadvantages was the low energy density, making it unusable for the claimed to have developed graphene aluminum-ion battery cells that charged 60
electric vehicles. However, in March 2016, a Chinese research team achieved times faster than contemporary lithium-ion cells and could hold three times the
substantial progress in developing an aluminum-graphite, dual-ion battery (AGDIB), energy of the best aluminum-based cells. These cells were created using

that offers a higher energy density along with other benefits such as reduced nanotechnology developed by the University of Queensland. In February 2024, the
weight, volume and fabrication cost. company revealed that it successfully manufactured several battery pouch cells
exceeding a capacity of 1000mAh (1Ah). They are now focusing on refining how
these pouch cells perform chemically through ongoing experiments in their labs.

73

Sourc es: Stanford; ScienceDaily; Light Metal Age; The Graphene Council
 Lithium-sulphur batteries may still achieve a higher cycle life
Lithium-sulphur battery

Lithium-sulfur (Li-S) batteries, which are yet to enter mainstream production for use • In January 2020, researchers at Monash University reconfigured the design of
in electric vehicles offer twice the energy density of lithium-ion batteries and are sulfur cathodes to accommodate higher stress loads without a drop in overall
expected to provide a range of 280 miles on a single charge. Other key advantages capacity, or performance. This has the potential to enable an electric vehicle to
of these batteries are that sulphur is non-toxic, safe, and inexpensive. travel 620 miles without needing to recharge.

Until now the main problem with these batteries was that they would deteriorate • In April 2020, researchers at the Cockrell School of Engineering at the University
after only a few charges. However, a research team at the Lawrence Berkeley Labs of Texas at Austin created an artificial layer containing tellurium inside the
in California have modified these cells using graphene oxide as an electrolyte. This battery in-situ and on top of lithium metal to make it last four times longer.
has enhanced their capacity to at least 1,500 cycles, without deterioration.
• In July 2020, energy technology company Brighsun New Energy announced that it
Technological breakthroughs had developed a technology that would prevent the generation of polysulfide on
the sulfur cathode of a battery, thereby suppressing dendritic growth that
• UK based OXIS Energy has made significant advancements in its commercial
hampers battery functioning. According to company researchers, this process
development of an Li-S battery with successful testing of over 400 watt-hours per
allows the Li-S battery to keep 91% of its initial capacity even after 1,700 cycles.
kilogram in October 2016.
• In March 2023, scientists at the U.S. Argonne National Laboratory announced
• In November 2016, scientists at the University of Cambridge developed a new
that they had created a porous sulfur-containing layer within the battery that can
prototype battery that uses a Li-S cell to provide up to 5 times the energy density
help protect the materials from the dendrite destruction. This would enable the
of a lithium-ion battery. The design of this battery is inspired by human
battery to charge and discharge 700 times, making it competitive with today’s
intestines.
lithium-ion batteries.

74

Sourc es: Company information; Press releases

 Smart membranes to prevent charge leaks in EV batteries
Smart membrane

Batteries losing charge over time is a major concern for the battery pack
manufacturers, as the membrane that conducts the charge and physically
separates the anode and the cathode often fails to prevent the charge leak.

In August 2016, researchers at the Ohio State University developed a thin plastic
membrane that stops rechargeable batteries from discharging when not in use,
while at the same time allowing for rapid recharging.

The technology, which is inspired by the characteristics of living cell membranes

that transport proteins in the body without losing their efficiency, controls how
charge flows inside the battery. The ‘smart’ membrane is expected to result in the
development of ‘redox transistor batteries’ that will enable EVs to achieve higher
battery ranges. The new battery pack will store energy in a liquid electrolyte which
people can refill as they would refill a gas tank.

In January 2022, scientists at the University of Michigan claimed to have developed

a biologically inspired membrane which could increase the charge capacity of
electric vehicle batteries by as much as 400%. The membrane is made using
recycled Kevlar, which is then transformed into a network of nanofibers similar in
structure to a cell membrane.

75

Sourc es: Press releases

 “We’re looking for new battery chemistries, new battery designs—ways to
cut down on the weight and volume associated with all the components that
go into supporting the batteries. Researchers at a variety of levels are trying
to make sure we can essentially have electric vehicles that can travel as far as
possible on a single charge.”

Micah Ziegler, Assistant Professor

Georgia Institute of Technology, 2024

76
 Graphene-based supercapacitors still lack energy storage capacity
Graphene-based supercapacitors

Also called electrochemical double layer capacitors (EDLCs), the supercapacitors are • to leakages due to the fabrication with liquid electrolytes. Developing these
made up of two layers of graphene with an electrolyte layer in the middle. The electrolytes together with carbon-based electrode materials, such as graphene,
graphene-based supercapacitor film, which is only one atom thick can graphene oxide, and carbon nanotubes has resulted in improved energy storage
fit into multiple areas in a vehicle, as opposed to ordinary batteries that take up a performance.
lot of space.
• In June 2021, researchers from Imperial College London and University College
Besides its size, it also scores higher than traditional batteries in terms of London announced that they had developed a cheaper, more sustainable, and
faster charging times, longer life cycles, and the ability to function optimally at low energy-dense electrode material for supercapacitors, which would lead to more
temperatures. advanced battery charging technology. The team used lignin, a bio-based by-
product derived from the paper industry, to create free-standing electrodes with
However, one of its current limitations that has made it unviable for mainstream EV
better energy storage capacity.
use is its low storage capacity: it can store only 5% of the energy that lithium-ion
batteries can. • In April 2023, the Indian Institute of Science announced that it had developed the
smallest micro-supercapacitor yet using the two-dimensional materials graphene
• In November 2017, Samsung announced that it had developed a technology
and molybdenum disulfide (MoS2). The resulting device has a capacitance of 1.8
using a ‘graphene ball’ with the potential to boost battery capacity by as much as
millifarad per square centimeter (mF/cm2).
45% and charging speeds by 500%.
• In November 2023, Australian company EnyGy announced plans to release
• In August 2020, scientists at the Integrated Nano Systems Lab (INSys Lab) in the
enyGcap, a new supercapacitor featuring activated carbon electrodes and
Centre for Clean Energy Technology announced that they had found a way to
advanced electrolytes, delivering three volts of power.
improve the performance of supercapacitors, which have historically been prone

77

Sourc es: Iflscience; Science Daily; Phys.org; Graphene info

 Tesla Models S currently with best battery specifications
Battery comparison (1/2)

Battery technologies: reach, price, specific energy, and development stage

Specific energy in Wh/kg Price in US$/kWh Reach in miles

Pb-acid(1) 40 200 30

Ni-Cd(2) 60 600 50
Already available

Ni-MH(3) 80 900 65
available

Li-ion 250 600 100

Already

Current focus area

Future Li-ion 350 <150 >125
NISSAN Leaf
Zn-air(4) 450 <150 >140

Li-S 600 <150 >250

Tesla model S
R&D

Li-air(5) 900 <150 >350

78 Notes: (1) Lead-Acid batteries (2) Nickel-Cadmium batteries (3) Nick el–metal hydride battery (4) Zinc–air batteries (5) Lithium-Air batteries

Sourc es: University of Illinois at Chicago

 Comparison of selected battery pack performance factors
Battery comparison (2/2)

Avg. lifespan in #
Battery Energy density in Wh/kg Costs in US$/kWh Safety
discharge cycles
Lead-Acid 30–40 250-260 500-800 Environmental concerns

Nickel-metal
60–140 - 180-2000 Environmental concerns
hydride
Flammable materials, requires careful
Lithium-ion 100 –265 273 Ca. 400–1200
disposal
2x that of lithium
Solid-state N/A (cheaper than li-ion) ca. 10 years Nonflammable
-ion batteries

Aluminum-ion 1,060 250 >7,500 Nonflammable, non-hazardous

Lithium-sulphur 500 NA (cheaper than li-ion) >1500 Nonflammable

79

Sourc es: University of Illinois at Chicago

CHAPTER 6

Electrification of public transport

Rising pollution levels, potential operational cost savings, and heavy dependence on public
transportation are the three major factors driving the gradual switch from hydrocarbon-based to
electrified public transport.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), nearly 50,000 electric buses were sold worldwide in
2023, accounting for 3% of total bus sales and increasing the global fleet to approximately 635,000
vehicles.

Financial support from the government, a large urban population and the resultant pollution, a lack of
legacy transportation infrastructure, global trade, and increased public awareness are the five key
reasons for Mainland China’s dominance.
 Public transportation is another major application for EVs
Overview

One major application of electric driving technology besides cars are buses and Cost savings
other transportation vehicles in the public transportation system. Rising pollution
Even though e-buses are more expensive to acquire than internal-combustion
levels, potential operational cost savings, and heavy dependence on public
engine buses, lower long-term operating costs in terms of fuel, maintenance
transportation are the three major factors driving the gradual switch from
expenses, and falling battery prices, add to the cost competitiveness of electric
hydrocarbon-based to electrified public transport. According to the 2023 Electric
buses.
Vehicle Outlook report by Bloomberg New Finance (BNEF), the global e-bus market
is changing quickly as cities make increasingly ambitious fleet electrification According to a study conducted by Bloomberg New Energy Finance, all-electric bus
commitments. By 2032, almost half of the global bus fleet will be battery powered, configurations will become cost competitive with diesel buses in just a few years.
and this number is expected to increase to 75% by 2045. Dependence on public transport
Rising pollution Most of the urban population worldwide is now heavily dependent on public

Tailpipe emissions from internal-combustion engines are one of the major sources transportation and governments across the world are beginning to invest in and
of harmful pollutants such as nitrogen oxides and particulates. According to World make significant commitments to more sustainable and cost-effective
Health Organization estimates, road transportation is responsible for up to 30% of transportation options. The rapid rise of eCommerce and related logistics is also

particulate emissions in Europe and up to 50% in OECD countries—mostly due to contributing majorly to the growth in this segment. In fact, according to the 2010
diesel vehicles. BNEF report over one-third of all commercial vehicles on the road are expected to
be either electric or fuel-cell by 2040.

81

Sourc es: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

 Mainland China dominates the global e-bus market
Mainland China’s e-bus dominance (1/3)

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), nearly 50,000 electric buses • Global trade: The Chinese government’s robust support for the industry also
were sold worldwide in 2023, accounting for 3% of total bus sales and increasing stems from their desire to create domestic companies which are able to be
the global fleet to approximately 635,000 vehicles. with Mainland China accounting market leaders in foreign markets as well.
for a majority share. Total sales of electric buses in the country increased over five-
• Large urban population and the resultant pollution: The sheer scale of Mainland
fold from 16,00 units in 2014 to 88,000 in 2017, before falling sharply to 43,000
China’s public transportation network due to its large urban population, was the
units in 2021 and 30,000 units in 2023. This is mainly due to a gradual subsidy
major contributor to the country’s rising pollution levels. The politicization of this
phase out from 2016 and a decline in the overall bus market. Nonetheless, China
issue resulted in quick government intervention and the passing of policies
accounts for nearly 50% of the market share, followed by Europe with 14%. Chinese
favorable for the electrification of the entire public transportation infrastructure.
electric bus manufacturers continue to dominate the export market as well,
accounting for over 85% of electric city buses deployed in Latin America. Their • Lack of legacy transportation infrastructure: While Europe and the U.S. try and
market share in the European Union has expanded from 10% in 2017 to 30% in incorporate electric buses into their complex existing public transportation
2023, driven by companies such as Yutong and BYD. The five main reasons behind infrastructure, many Chinese cities have the luxury of building entirely new public
Mainland China’s dominance are: transportation networks, which makes the task much easier.

• Financial support: Robust government support in the form of subsidies helped to • Increased public awareness: While Mainland China has been taking steps to curb
bring the total cost of an electric bus below that of a similar diesel variant, air pollution for several years now, public awareness of air pollution in Europe
thereby resulting in increased adoption. gained traction only after the Volkswagen diesel emissions scandal. Cities such as
Shanghai and Shenzhen have already stopped purchasing new ICE buses.

82

Sourc es: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; International Energy Agency (IEA)
 Mainland China’s e-bus sales started to increase in 2015
Mainland China’s e-bus dominance (2/3)

Electric bus sales in Mainland China in thousands Selected municipal e-bus fleet projects in Mainland China
88
84 City #e-buses Year Manufacturer Status
83
1,426 2017 Zhongtong Delivered

69
Beijing 2,120 2020 BAIC Foton Delivered

56 57 2,790 2020 Foton Delivered

45 Qingdao 347 N/A Zhongtong Announced

43
635 2016 Yutong Delivered

30 Shangqiu
100 N/A Yutong Announced

16 1,000 2012 BYD Delivered

6 Shenzhen 3,600 2016 BYD Delivered

1 2
16,500 2017 N/A Delivered
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

83

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA); Bloomberg New Energy Finance; China Buses
 Yutong holds the largest market share in 2020, followed by BYD
Mainland China’s e-bus dominance (3/3)

Market shares of pure electric bus producers in Mainland China in 2017 Market shares of pure electric bus producers in Mainland China in 2020

19%
26%
31%

42%

13%

5% 15%
10%
6%
4% 7% 8% 9%
5%

Yutong Zhontong Zhuhai Yinlong Others Yutong CRRC Electric Higer Others

BYD Nanjing Jinlong Futian Ouhui BYD Zhongtong Ankai

84

Sourc es: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; Sustainable B us

 Municipal e-bus fleet projects (1/3)
Municipal e-bus fleet projects

City / transit #e- Manufactur Status City / transit #e- Manufactur Status
Country Year Country Year
agency buses er (model) agency buses er (model)
Alexandria /
Hamburger 2021- Daimler, MAN, and Delivery in
Egypt Passenger Transport 15 2018 BYD (K9) Delivered 530
Hochbahn 2025 Solaris progress
Authority
Hamburg/Verkehrsb
23 2016 Bollore (Bluebus) Delivered Germany etriebe Hamburg- 53 2022 MAN Truck & Bus Announced
Paris / RATP Holstein (VHH)
4500 2025 Bollore (Bluebus) Announced Düsseldorf/
10 2019 Irizar ie Delivered
Rheinbahn
France
Strasbourg/ 12 2019 Alstom Aptis Delivered Hungary Budapest 20 2016 Evopro Delivered
Compagnie des
Transports
Strasbourgeoi 49 2021 Irizar ie Delivered
Israel Haifa 17 2017 BYD Delivered

Cologne 8 2015 VDL (Citea SLF) Delivered Eindhoven 43 2016 VDL Delivered

KVB Cologne 51 2021 VDL Announced Rotterdam public

55 2018 VDL Delivered
transport operator
Germany Netherlands
15 2020 Mercedes Delivered 100 NA VDL (Citea SLF) Delivered
Amstelland-
BVG Berlin
Meerlanden
107 2020 Solaris Delivered 18 NA VDL (Futura) Announced

85

Sourc es: University of Illinois at Chicago; Sustainable Bus

 Municipal e-bus fleet projects (2/3)
Municipal e-bus fleet projects

City / transit #e- Manufactur Status City / transit #e- Manufactur Status
Country Year Country Year
agency buses er (model) agency buses er (model)

Netherlands Den Haag HTM 5 NA VDL (Citea SLF120) Delivered 36 2018 NA Announced
London
Volvo (7900), Delivery in United
Trondheim 35 2019 56 2019 NA Announced
Norway Kingdom
Heuliezes progress

Trondheim 11 2020 Heuliez GX Delivered Manchester 32 2020 Stagecoach Delivered

17 2017 Solaris (Urbino 12) Delivered Stockton / San 12 2017 Proterra (EcoRide) Delivered

Poland Krakow Joaquin Regional

Transit District Protera (Catalyst
3 2017 Solaris (Urbino 18) Delivered 5 2018 Delivered
E2)

35 2020 New Flyer Announced

Warsaw 130 2019 Solaris Delivered
United States Los Angeles County /
Delivery in Metropolitan 60 2021 BYD Announced
Sweden Gotheburg 157 2018 Volvo
progress Transportation
BYD/ADL (Enviro 2200 2030 NA Announced
14 2017 Delivered
United 200EV)
London Los Angeles /
Kingdom BYD/ADL (Enviro
105 2018 Delivered Department of 25 2019 Proterra (Catalyst) Delivered
400EV) Transportation

86

Sourc es: University of Illinois at Chicago; Sustainable Bus

 Municipal e-bus fleet projects (3/3)
Municipal e-bus fleet projects

City / transit #e- Manufactur Status City / transit #e- Manufactur Status
Country Year Country Year
agency buses er (model) agency buses er (model)
Los Angeles /
Department of 359 2030 NA Announced Santiago de Chile 100 2018 BYD Delivered
Transportation Chile
San Francisco / Santiago de Chile 100 2018 Yutong E12 Delivered
Municipal Transit 185 2019 New Flyer8 (XT40) Delivered
Agency
Pomona, San Gabriel Medellín 64 2019 BYD Delivered
Valleys / Foothill 361 2030 NA Announced
Transit Colombia Bogota 470 2020 BYD Delivered
United States
Albuquerque 20 2017 BYD Delivered
Bogota 406 2022 BYD Delivered
Clemenson Area
Proterra (Catalyst
Transit (South 10 NA Delivered AMT Genoa 10 2019 Rampini Delivered
E2)
California)
Italy
GreenPower
Porterville 10 2019 Delivered AMT Genoa 14 2020 Irizar ie Delivered
Motor (EV350)

Proterra (Catalyst
Park City 6 2017 Delivered
FC+)
Lusail, Al Khor, Doha,
Qatar Al Rayyan, Al 741 2022 Yutong Delivered
Wakrah/Mowasalat

87

Sourc es: University of Illinois at Chicago; Sustainable Bus

 With 3,864 e-buses, the UK had the largest fleet in Europe in 2023
E-bus fleet: Europe (1/2)

E-bus fleet in Europe in 2023

153

304
2.584

3,711 26
6 77 93
2,675 50 242 22
205 377 100 33
1,5751,462 1,3041,219 463 436
1,141 2 6 248 207 107 153 74 72
499 632 528 57 31 27 26 20 13 12 12
8

Czech Republic
Poland

Slovenia
UK

Germany

France

The Netherlands

Denmark

Sweden

Cyprus
Switzerland

Belgium
Spain

Hungary
Luxembourg

Portugal

Bulgaria

Estonia

Greece

Turkey
Finland

Latvia
Italy

Ireland

Slovakia

Iceland

Malta
Austria

Croatia
Romania
Norway

Lithuania
PHEV-Buses BEV-Buses

88

Sourc es: European Alternative Fuels Observatory

 MAN sold the highest number e-buses in 2023
E-bus fleet: Europe (2/2)

E-bus registrations in Europe

MAN 785
230
Solaris 725
342
483
Yutong 479
Wrightbus 469
112
448
BYD-ADL 465
Mercedes 446
405
BYD 358
322
356
Iveco Bus 347
Volvo Buses 345
232
Zhongtong(1) 249
n.a.
Zonson(1) 232
n.a.
Irizar 211
110
2023 2022

89 Notes: (1) 2022 Zhongtong and Zonson data not available

Sourc es: Sustainable Bus

 Major e-bus manufacturers and their flagship models in China
E-bus models: Mainland China

Company Model Battery in kWH Battery type Battery Supplier Range in km Charging Units sold
Plug-in at depot at a rate
12m (China) 324 LFP(1) BYD 250 NA
2x40kW
Plug-in at depot at a rate
12m (Overseas) 422 LFP(1) BYD 450 NA
2x40kW
BYD
Pantograph and plug-in at
18MLE 324 LFP(1) BYD 250 80 in Europe
depot at a rate 2x40kW
Plug-in at depot at a rate 20,500 in China for
Double Decker 345 LFP(1) BYD 330
2x40kW 2015-2016
Choice of dual plug 2×40kW
Enviro
BYD-ADL 348 LFP(1) BYD 257 AC charging and single plug 51
200EV
102kW DC charging

Yutong Yutong E12 295 Li-ion CATL 320 Plug-in at depot 35,000 in 2015-2016

Zhongtong LCK6122E 20,000 in

230 LFP(1) China First Brand 414 Plug-in at depot, 120kw
Bus VG 2015-2016

90 Notes: (1) Lithium iron phosphate battery

Sourc es: University of Illinois at Chicago

 Major e-bus manufacturers and their flagship models (1/4)
E-bus models: Global (1/4)

Company Model Battery in kWH Battery type Battery Supplier Range in km Charging Units sold

ADL Enviro 400EV 324-472 NMC(1) Akaso 313-418 CCS2 DC plug charging 3

Bollore Group Bluebus 240 LMP(2) BlueSolutions 180 Plug-in at depot 23

Sileo S10 and S12 230 LFP(3) Bozankaya BC&C 280 Plug-in at depot 8

Bozankaya Sileo S18 346 LFP(3) Bozankaya BC&C 300 Plug-in at depot NA

Sileo S24 380 LFP(3) Bozankaya BC&C 250 Plug-in at depot NA

Carrosserie Hess TOSA 70 LTO(4) ABB 30 Conductive pantograph 1

Temsa MD9 240 NMC(1) Mitsubishi 250 CCS Combo2 NA

DCGT
Temsa Avenue 360 NMC(1) Microvast 350 CCS Type 2 NA

Ebusco 12m 350 LFP(3) Ebusco 700 Plug-in at depot NA

Ebusco
Ebusco 18m 500 LFP(3) NA 700 Plug-in at depot NA

91 Notes: (1) Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide battery (2) Lithium-Metal-Polymer battery (3) Lithium Iron Phosphate battery (4) Lithium–Titanite battery

Sourc es: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

 Major e-bus manufacturers and their flagship models (2/4)
E-bus models: Global (2/4)

Company Model Battery in kWH Battery type Battery Supplier Range in km Charging Units sold

ModuloC68e 144 LFP(1) Valence 200-230 Conductive 20

Evopro
ModuloC88e 84 LFP(1) NA 120-140 NA NA

intermediate by OppCharge
GX337 ELEC 360 NMC(2) Foresee 300 1
pantograph
Heuliez Bus
GX437 ELEC 106 LTO(3) NA 120 Plug-in at depot NA

ArcticWhisper 40-120 LTO(3) Altair-Nano 30-55 Pantograph NA

Hybricon Bus System
City BusHCB 38-265 NMC(2) BMZ NA Pantograph 9

Irizar Irizar I2e 376 NaNiCl (ZEBRA)(4) FIAMM 210 Plug-in at depot, Combo2 13

Solo EV 138 LiFeMgPO4(5) Valence 130 Depot charging 56

Optare Metrocity EV 250 NMC(2) NA 250 44kW integrated on-board 13

Versa EV 274 Li-ion NA 136 NA 13

92 Notes: (1) Lithium Iron Phosphate battery (2) L ithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide battery (3) Lithium –Titanite battery (4) Sodium–Nickel Chloride battery (5) Lithium Iron Magnesium Phosphate

Sourc es: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

 Major e-bus manufacturers and their flagship models (3/4)
E-bus models: Global (3/4)

Company Model Battery in kWH Battery type Battery Supplier Range in km Charging Units sold

Optare Metrodecker 325 NA NA 240 Depot charging NA

Pantograph, SAE J1772 CCS

Catalyst FC 79 LTO(3) Toshiba 80 100
connector
Pantograph, SAE J1772 CCS
Proterra Catalyst bus XR 220 NMC(2) LG Chem 220 NA
connector
Pantograph, SAE J1772 CCS
Catalyst E2 440 NA NA 405 NA
connector
Plug-in at depot or
Urbino 8.9 160 LFP(1)/LTO(3) Solaris 200 5
pantograph
Plug-in at depot or on-route
Solaris Urbino 12 300 LFP(1)/LTO(3) NA 266 93
charging
Plug-in at depot or on-route
Urbino 18 800 LFP(1)/LTO(3) NA 600 5
charging
Plug-in and inverted
Van Hool Exqui.City 18m 215 Li-ion BFFT 120 40
pantograph
Pantograph, depot charging,
Citea LLE-99 180 NMC(2) Multiple 100-150 67
fast charging
VDL Bus & Coach
Akasol, Durapower,
Citea SLF120 63-240 NMC(2) NA Pantograph, Combo2 NA
Microvast

93 Notes: (1) Lithium Iron Phosphate battery (2) L ithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide battery (3) Lithium –Titanite battery

Sourc es: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

 Major e-bus manufacturers and their flagship models (4/4)
E-bus models: Global (4/4)

Company Model Battery in kWH Battery type Battery Supplier Range in km Charging Units sold
Akasol, Durapower,
VDL Bus & Coach Citea SLF-180 63-180 NMC(1) NA Pantograph, Combo2 NA
Microvast

Volvo7900E 330 Li-ion SAFT 96 ABB OppCharge 11

Volvo Bus
On-route
Volvo7900 (PHEV) 330 LFP(2) SAFT 8.1 39
charging (OC)

94 Notes: (1) Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide battery (2) Lithium iron phosphate battery

Sourc es: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

CHAPTER 7

E-scooters

E-scooters recently gained popularity and are believed to be the solution to the problem of last-mile
transportation in many global markets.
Even though the need to restrict environmental damage caused mainly by polluting vehicles is the
overarching reason behind the development of various alternate fuel technologies, the e-scooter
industry specifically is driven by the rise in micro-mobility, which aims to transform urban transportation
through the use of cheaper and quicker alternatives to cars, especially in dense urban areas in the U.S.,
Asia, and Latin America.
 E-scooters represent version 2.0 of the ride-sharing industry
Overview (1/3)

A few years ago, many cities around the world started promoting bicycle sharing Types of e-scooters
services and bike lanes to reduce carbon emissions and offer users a quicker and
more convenient way of travelling short distances. The recent popularity of e-
scooters, which are believed to be the solution to the problem of last-mile
transportation in many global markets, is mainly an offshoot of that.

There are currently two types of e-scooters in the market: dockless and the ‘Vespa-
like’ ones, with the former being more popular in the U.S. and other western
countries and the latter in Mainland China. The dockless e-scooters have an
average top speed of around 15 miles per hour, are equipped with GPS trackers
and wireless connectivity, and can be accessed and operated simply by using an
app. They cost about US$3-US$4 per ride, with people using them mainly for short
distances. The ‘Vespa-like’ scooters on the other hand are meant for longer
distances, have a higher top speed, and usually cost more to ride.

The main companies operating dockless scooters are all U.S. based and include
Lime, Bird, Spin (both acquired by Third Lane Mobility), Goat, and Scoot. Lime,
which began operations in late 2017, currently operates in approximately 55 cities
across the U.S., while Bird is present in over 80 cities.
Vespa-like Dockless

96

Sourc es: Bloomberg; CNBC; Engadget; TechCrunch; Venture B eat; Risester

 Rise in micro-mobility to drive the industry growth
Overview (2/3)

Companies have also expanded to markets in Europe such as Austria, Belgium, Challenges
Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary,
In spite of such strong growth, the market has faced many challenges from
Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Romania, Spain, and Switzerland. Lime has
authorities and consumers alike. For example, when Bird, Lime and Spin launched
raised over US$1.7 billion over 10 rounds and plans to go public in the near future,
in San Francisco without a permit in March 2018, it led to their subsequent ban
which is a sign that investors are feeling more optimistic about the long-term
from the city in June. Also, governments in other cities in the U.S. have limited the
survival of the e-scooter industry in a post-pandemic world. The major companies
number of e-scooters vehicles on the streets, thereby restricting market growth.
making more conventional or ‘Vespa-like’ e-scooters include Gogoro (Taiwan), Terra
Some consumers have also protested against their use because of the lack of
Motors (Japan), Vmoto (Australia), Jiangsu Xinri Electric Vehicle Company (Mainland
proper parking spaces and the physical dangers they pose to pedestrians. The
China), Amego Electric Vehicles (Canada), and Govecs Group (Germany)
dockless system is regularly discarded on the sidewalk resulting in blocked
Drivers doorways and congestion and can also result in an accident as they are used
mostly on sidewalks. Further, the cost of maintaining the vehicles including
Even though the need to restrict environmental damage caused mainly by polluting
changing their batteries daily, lack of adequate charging stations, low prices and
vehicles is the overarching reason behind the development of various alternate fuel
lack of customer loyalty are other factors affecting business viability.
technologies, the e-scooter industry specifically is driven by the rise in micro-
mobility which aims to transform urban transportation through cheaper and Even though Bird filed for bankruptcy in December 2023, it successfully emerged
quicker alternatives to cars. This is especially the case in dense urban areas in the from it in April 2024 after being taken over by Third Lane Mobility Inc, which also
U.S., Asia and Latin America. The lack of an incumbent industry which ride-hailing operates Spin. Other notable insolvencies in the micro-mobility sector are Skip,
companies like Uber and Lyft had to deal with, is also driving market growth. Boosted, and Unicorn, which went bankrupt in 2021. 2020 and 2019, respectively.

97

Sourc es: Ernst & Young; CultureMap; Bloomberg; Smart Cities Dive
 Incumbents are wary of Uber and Lyft’s entry
Overview (3/3)

Uber and Lyft Manufacturing

Even though market pioneers such as Lime are growing, they are also keeping an Even though e-scooter ride-sharing is growing at a fast pace in the U.S. and Europe,
eye on Uber and Lyft, both of whom have now entered the e-scooter market. In it is a less known fact that most of these vehicles are procured in Mainland China
September 2018, Lyft debuted its first e-scooter sharing service in Denver, Colorado and more specifically, Beijing based Ninebot. In fact, Ninebot is amongst the largest
and has since expanded to provide coverage in all 50 states to some extent. Uber supplier of e-scooters deployed in the U.S. According to the company’s CEO Gao
entered the market through the acquisition of Jump Bikes in 2018. It has also Lufeng, its e-scooter sales grew at a rate of 600% in FY2018, as compared to the
invested US$170 million in Lime. According to Bloomberg, Uber is also now year before. However, in spite of such robust growth, the company is facing
manufacturing its scooters instead of buying the from Mainland China, thereby unexpected challenges in the form of vehicle recalls over safety issues. In October
signaling its long-term interest in this market. 2018, Lime called back 2000 scooters for fear of them catching fire, thereby posing
a question on the company’s and indeed the industry’s ability to churn products out
in large numbers, with the industry being nascent.

98

Sourc es: Bloomberg; CNBC; Engadget; TechCrunch; Venture B eat

 E-scooters seen as a solution for last-mile transportation
Barriers & preferences

Traffic congestion and growing pollution are among the biggest issues globally with Preference regarding shared mobility systems in %
many studies resting the blame on last-mile travel. In fact, according to a study
conducted by Forbes, in the U.S., cars commuting for less than three miles are 12%
responsible for as much as 46% of all traffic on the roads. This is one of the major
drivers of the shared mobility market, especially e-scooters and e-bikes, with data
collected by Lime showing that 30% of riders in the U.S. are now opting for e-
scooters rather than cars on their recent trips. Another factor pointing towards the
industry’s rapid growth is the enormous success enjoyed by e-scooter start-ups
Lime and Bird, both of which have achieved over billion-dollar valuations within just
a year of starting up. 51%

However, despite the success, the e-scooter market in the U.S. has much room for
growth as is evident from Statista’s survey(1), which shows the acceptance rate of 37%
bicycles and e-bikes to be 51% and 37% respectively as opposed to just 12% for e-
scooters. With Mckinsey estimating the U.S. micro-mobility market to value
between US$200-300 billion by 2030, there seems to be plenty of room for growth
in the medium to long-term.

Bicycle e-bike e-scooter

99 Notes: (1) “Which of the following means of transportation in shared mobility systems do you prefer?”; Single Pick; n=481 respondent s who have used a shared bicycle system at least once

Sourc es: Forbes; McKinsey; Deloitte; Statista Survey E-bikes and Shared Bicycle Systems in the U.S. 2019
 Inexperienced riders are at higher risks of accidents with e-scooters
Accidents

Electric scooters are light, compact and ideal for quickly traveling through busy Focusing on two emergency departments between September 2017 and August
urban areas, especially when used together with public transport. They have 2018, it found that 249 people involved in e-scooter accidents required medical
become one of the hottest trends in the U.S. and many rental companies offer care with a third of them brought to hospital by ambulance. Falls, collisions, and
them for as little as US$1 per hour with a few cents added on for each minute of getting struck by moving vehicles or objects were the most common accidents
usage. documented. The resulting injuries were severe with 40% of accidents involving
bone fractures, 32% head trauma, and 28% cuts, sprains and bruises.
Unfortunately, even though these scooters may seem to be ideal to navigate
through the ever-increasing traffic congestion, especially in major cities, they can Poignantly, the study found that only 4% of riders were wearing a helmet when
also prove to be dangerous for inexperienced riders. There are no official numbers their accident happened. Most e-scooter companies recommend wearing a helmet
on global e-scooter deaths, but fatal accidents have been reported in a host of but there seems to be a very low adherence to this basic safety guideline. That lack
cities worldwide including Singapore, London, and Los Angeles. According to a 2020 of safety, coupled with increasing numbers of e-scooters in circulation has led to
study published in the JAMA Surgery journal, there was a 222% jump in the number greater scrutiny of the situation. There is now talk of a ban unless safety protocols
of related injuries between 2014 and 2018. are strictly followed. As the discussion gets louder, the days of people riding
without a helmet could thankfully be numbered.
Given these heightened safety fears about the severity of e-scooter accidents,
researchers in the U.S. have published a new study about injuries from these
mishaps for the first time. The analysis was carried out by the University of
California Los Angeles (UCLA) and published in the medical journal; the JAMA
Network Open.

100

Sourc es: Statista; University of California Los Angeles via JAMA Network
 Development of autonomous e-scooters in its nascency
Autonomous e-scooters

The growing popularity of e-scooters is addressing the need to shrink the physical product is launched.
footprint required to help people commute over short distances. Even though this
One of the main challenges facing manufacturers of autonomous e-scooters is the
trend is still in its infancy, technology companies, lured by the vehicles’ low-cost,
price. Any self-driving vehicle makes use of multiple sensors to perceive the world
potential return on investments and the need to address various pain points, have
around it, with AI powered computers making sense of it. Even if they don’t use
already started creating new products and business models.
Lidar, which is the most expensive and advanced sensor in the market today, the
One such development is the creation of autonomous e-scooters. In January 2019, vehicle is still expected to cost much more than the traditional scooters. The
Uber announced that it had already begun developing its own line under a new KickScooter T60 is expected to sell at a price of around USS$1,420, which is four
division called Micro-mobility Robotics. These scooters can drive themselves to times the cost of the company’s range of traditional scooters (US$100 to US$300).
charging stations, to locations where riders need them or to maintenance depots,
thus eliminating the need for expensive manual intervention. In 2018, e-scooter
company Bird spent almost half its gross revenue per ride on paying individual
contract workers to charge its e-scooters and another 14% of the revenue to carry
out repairs.

The Beijing based company Segway-Ninebot Group, has already unveiled an AI

powered autonomous scooter called KickScooter T60, which can be controlled
remotely via the cloud. According to a company statement, ride-sharing companies
such as Uber and Lyft are being considered as potential customers, when the

101

Sourc es: Deloitte; Medium; Reuters

 Major e-scooter manufacturers and their flagship models (1/2)
E-scooter models (1/2)

E-scooter Battery Charging E-scooter Battery Charging

Models Type Range Time Battery Used Models Type Range Time Battery Used
Gotrax GXL V2 Dockless 12.5 miles 4 hours Lithium-ion Kymco Like-EV Vespa-like 123 miles 1 hours Lithium-ion

Lightning Motorcycles 188-355

Glion Dolly XL Dockless 30 miles 5.5 hours Lithium-ion Vespa-like 2 hours Lithium-ion
LS-218 miles

Glion SNAPnGO Dockless 15 miles 3.5 hours Lithium-ion NIU NQi Sport Vespa-like 48 miles 7 hours Lithium-ion

Hero Electric Photon LP Vespa-like 56 miles 5 hours Lithium-ion NIU MQi+Sport Vespa-like 40 miles 9 hours Lithium-ion

Hero Electric Optima

Vespa-like 55 miles 4.5 hours Lithium-ion NIU UQi GT Vespa-like 37 miles 7 hours Lithium-ion
CX 2.0
Hero Electric Nyx
Vespa-like 86 miles 4.5 hours Lithium-ion NIU MQi GT Vespa-like 62 miles 4.5 hours Lithium-ion
HS500 ER
Novoku 6.5 A3 Electric 12 - 16
Hero Electric Flash LX Vespa-like 53 miles 4.5 hours Lithium-ion Dockless - Lithium-ion
Scooter miles
Hero Electric Optima
Vespa-like 84 miles 6.5 hours Lithium-ion Okinawa Praise PRO Vespa-like 50 miles 3 hours Lithium-ion
CX 5.0

Hero Electric Eddy Vespa-like 53 miles 5 hours Lithium-ion Razor E200 Dockless 8 miles 12 hours Lead-acid

Hero Electric Atria LX Vespa-like 53 miles 5 hours Lithium-ion Razor E300 Dockless 10 miles 12 hours Lead-acid

102

Sourc es: Company websites; News articles

 Major e-scooter manufacturers and their flagship models (2/2)
E-scooter models (2/2)

E-scooter Battery Charging E-scooter Battery Charging

Models Type Range Time Battery Used Models Type Range Time Battery Used
Razor T25 Dockless 18 miles 8 hours Lithium-ion Sunra Miku Max Vespa-like 37 miles 4 hours Lithium-ion

Razor EcoSmart Metro Dockless 12 miles 12 hours Lead-acid Swagtron 5 Dockless 11 miles 3.5 hours Lithium-ion

Razor Power A2 Dockless 6 miles 6 hours Lithium-ion Swagtron 2 Classic Dockless 9 miles 5 hours Lithium-ion

Razor C45 Dockless 23 miles 6 hours Lithium-ion Swagtron 8 Dockless 10 miles 3 hours Lithium-ion

Razor C35 Dockless 18 miles 6 hours Lithium-ion Zero Motors-DSR Vespa-like 155 miles 1 hours Lithium-ion

Razor C25 Dockless 18 miles 8 hours Lithium-ion Zero Motors-SR/S Vespa-like 171 miles 1.1 hours Lithium-ion

Razor RX 200 Dockless 8 miles 12 hours Lead-acid Zero Motors-S Vespa-like 154 miles 1.3 hours Lithium-ion

Sunra Miku 1 Vespa-like 37 miles 4 hours Lithium-ion Zero Motors-SR/F Vespa-like 176 miles 1.1 hours Lithium-ion

Sunra Robo-S Vespa-like 83 miles 4 hours Lithium-ion Zero Motors-DS Vespa-like 144 miles 1.3 hours Lithium-ion

Sunra Miku Super Vespa-like 83 miles 4 hours Lithium-ion Zero Motors-FX Vespa-like 102 miles 1.3 hours Lithium-ion

103

Sourc es: Company websites; News articles

CHAPTER 8

E-bikes

E-bikes are essentially conventional bicycles equipped with a rechargeable battery and motor, which
helps them gain momentum faster and achieve speeds of up to 30 miles an hour. They look and function
just like a traditional bicycle and give riders the option to use the pedal as and when they desire.

They can be classified according to their functionality (mountain bikes, road bikes, hybrid bikes, folding
bikes, and utility bikes) or according to their design (Pedal Assist/Pedelec, Throttle, and Speed Pedelec).
The growing popularity of e-scooters around the world has piqued interest in e-bikes. The first e-bike was
manufactured in Japan in 1993, with Yamaha launching its pedal assist bicycle.
 E-bikes are classified according to functionality and design
Overview (1/3)

E-bikes are essentially conventional bicycles equipped with a rechargeable battery • Pedal Assist/Pedelec (class 1): This is the most common e-bike in the market
and motor which helps them gain momentum faster and achieve speeds of up to allowing the rider to pedal normally while a motor increases the power
20-30 miles an hour, depending on one’s location. They look and function just like a transmitted to the rear wheel. Therefore, the pedaling requires far less effort
traditional bicycle, and also give riders the option to use the pedal as and when even in higher gears. A class 1 e-bike in Europe cannot provide assistance over 15
they desire. miles per hour (mph), while in the U.S. the speed limit is 20 mph. These bikes are
mostly used alongside regular bikes and do not require any additional licensing.
They can be classified according to their functionality – mountain bikes, road bikes,
hybrid bikes, folding bikes and utility bikes – or according to their design – Pedal • Throttle (class 2): These e-bikes are more like motorcycles and scooters in that a
Assist/Pedelec (Class 1), Throttle (Class 2) and Speed Pedelec (Class 3). throttle propels the bike forward without much input from the rider. They are
much less common as compared to the class 1 bikes with many countries
Mountain bikes have more power on an average, with a maximum battery capacity
prohibiting them entirely. They’re mostly available in the U.S. and Mainland China
of 700wh which supports riding through rough terrain. Road bikes are meant for
with the European Union (EU) completely disallowing their use.
moving around cities and towns; and for navigating through traffic easily. Hybrid
bikes can handle rough roads and occasional park tracks which make riding more • Speed Pedelec (class 3): These bikes are similar in design to a standard pedelec
difficult due to the presence of gravel. Folding bikes, as the name suggests, fold up or class 1 but allow for a higher top speed of around 28 mph. Many countries
and are much easier to transport around and store. Utility bikes have cargo require riders of these bikes to carry an additional license on account of them
carrying capacities. being motorized.

105

Sourc es: BikEeurope; European Cyclists’ Federation (ELECTROMOBILITY FOR ALL, Financial incentives for e-cycling); Montague; The Royal Society for the Prevention of Accidents
 Mainland China is the largest market for e-bikes
Overview (2/3)

The batteries used in e-bikes vary in chemistries, with the most common being The growing popularity of e-scooters around the world has piqued interest in e-
lead-acid, nickel-metal hydride (NiMH), or lithium-ion (Li-ion). The low-cost bikes bikes. The first e-bike to be launched ever was the Zike by Sinclair Research in 1992,
usually have a sealed Valve Regulated Lead-Acid (VRLA) battery, while the more but it was a commercial failure selling only 2,000 units. The first commercially
expensive ones have either a nickel-metal hydride or lithium-ion battery. The type successful e-bike was manufactured in Japan in 1993, with Yamaha launching its
of batteries used also vary according to the country with Chinese companies using pedal assist bicycle equipped with its proprietary PAS (Power Assist System)
lead-acid and those in Europe using mostly nickel-metal hydride and lithium-ion. technology. The bike had a lead battery and a range of 20 kms, with Yamaha selling
30,000 units in the first year alone. Even though regular updates to the PAS models
Giant Manufacturing (Taiwan), Merida (Taiwan), Yamaha (Japan), NYCeWheels (U.S.),
had a positive effect on the market, it was only the revision of regulations governing
Robert Bosch (Germany), Accell Group (Netherlands), Derby Cycle (Germany), and
a bicycle’s motor and road safety in 2008 that triggered mainstream adoption in the
Aima Technology (Mainland China) are some of the top manufacturers of e-bikes in
country. Today Japan is among the leading users of e-bikes, with Yamaha and
the world. Giant Group is the largest in terms of revenue, with a total revenue of
Panasonic dominating the market.
nearly US$3 billion in 2022.
Mainland China made the development of e-bikes an official technology goal in
1991 and is currently the largest manufacturer and user of e-bikes in the world.
According to the China Bicycle Association (CBA), the country currently has around
700 companies manufacturing e-bikes with the top 10 accounting for about half of
the total production.

106

Sourc es: BIKEeurope; China B icycle Association; European Cyclists’ Federation (ELECTROMOBILITY FOR ALL, Financial incentives for e-cycling); Montague; The Royal Society for the Prevention of Accidents
 Germany, France, and the Netherlands are the major markets in Europe
Overview (3/3)

Even though Europe and North America were late adopters of this technology, their Sales volume of electric bicycle in the European Union in million
markets have experienced strong growth over the last few years. Germany, France,
and the Netherlands are the major markets in Europe.
5,16
According to Statista Market Insights, in 2023, Germany emerged as the leading 4,94
market for electric bicycles in Europe, with sales reaching 2.1 million units, followed
4,33
by France, the Netherlands, Italy, and Belgium.
21%(1) 3,90
The sales of e-bikes in Europe have been increasing steadily in recent years. In
2020, there was a significant 27% increase compared to the previous year, driven in
3,07
part by more people taking up cycling during the COVID-19 pandemic. This trend
2,67
continued in the subsequent years, resulting in nearly 5.2 million e-bikes sold by
the end of 2023. 1,95
1,53
1,09

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

107 Notes: (1) CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Sourc es: Statista Market Insights

 In Germany, 23% of households owned an e-bike in 2023
E-bike ownership

Type of vehicle ownership in %

84 82 83

66

48
41

23
14 13 11 9 9 11 10 10 10
8 8 7 7 6
4 5 5

Car Bicycle Motorcycle Electric bicycle E-scooter (stand- Electric motor Motor scooter None of the above
(e-bike) up scooter) scooter (sit- (e.g., Vespa)
down scooter)
U.S. Germany UK

108 Notes: "Which of these items do you permanently have available in your household?“; Multi Pick; U.S.: n=10,073, UK: n=4,031, Germany : n=6,001; Residential online population, all respondents

Sourc es: Statista Global Consumer Survey, as of July 2024

 Evolution of e-bikes: timeline (1/2)
Evolution (1/2)

1895 ⚫ Ogden Bolton patented the first battery-powered bicycle 2005 ⚫ Mainland China begins exporting e-bikes to countries in the EU

1897 ⚫ Hosea W. Libbey patented the bicycle with a double electric motor 2016 ⚫ 32.8 million e-bikes were sold in the Asia-Pacific, which was 30 times
more than Western Europe, the second largest market at the time
1898 ⚫ John Schnepf patented the electric motor with a roller wheel
2017 ⚫ Size of the global market for electric bikes was ascertained at
1900s ⚫ Bicycle models with torque sensors and power controls became US$16.34 billion
available
2019 ⚫ Uber started developing autonomous e-bikes
1992 ⚫ Zike, the first ever modern commercial e-bike was launched
2020 ⚫ Harley Davidson launched its line of e-bikes under the Serial 1 brand
1993 ⚫ Yamaha launched its first pedal assisted bicycle with a lead battery Jeep launched its line of e-bikes
and range of 20 kms; it sold 30,000 units in the first year
2021 ⚫ BMW launched a highspeed e-bike with a range of 186 miles
1998 ⚫ Over 50 new models were launched globally Alibaba launched a US$750 three-passenger e-bike
The U.S. announced US$900 tax credits for e-bikes
2000s ⚫ Yamaha and Panasonic begun mass producing e-bikes for the global
market

109

Sourc es: Company information; Press releases

 Evolution of e-bikes: timeline (2/2)
Evolution (2/2)

2022 ⚫ Harley-Davidson's electric vehicle arm, LiveWire, unveils the S2 Del

Mar LE electric motorcycle in the U.S.

2023 ⚫ Decathlon launches its Decathlon Elops LD 920 electric bike for sale
in some countries such as France and the Netherlands, with plans to
further expand in the EU

2024 ⚫ Decathlon launches new RR900e hardtail e-bike in Europe in April

110

Sourc es: Company information; Press releases

 New technologies and celebrity endorsements are driving the market
Drivers (1/2)

Faster alternative or short or mid-range travel • Durable Electric Motors: The recent addition of brushless permanent-magnet DC
motors consisting of neodymium rare-earth magnets, have not only resulted in
According to a report by the European Cyclists’ Federation, e-bikes are faster than
enhanced durability and power but have also made the automotive starters
cars for distances of up to 10 km, with the time difference for longer distances (up
much smaller.
to 20 km) being marginal. Another study by Mobike, a Chinese bike-sharing
company, found that 90% of the people using a combination of bikes and public Celebrity endorsement
transportation in New York reached destinations under 5 kms (3.1 miles) faster
The e-bike industry has gained much visibility from several key celebrity
than those who used only cars.
endorsements. For example, Olympic gold medalist Victoria Pendleton launched
Technological advancements her own e-bike in 2018, while Olympic gold medalist Sir Chris Hoy has spoken up
about the advantages and entertainment value of riding an e-bike on many
The e-bike industry has experienced several technological breakthroughs, and this
occasions. Non-athletes who have advocated the use of e-bikes include Charles,
is the primary reason for their recent proliferation:
Prince of Wales, who was spotted riding a Spencer Ivy, Leonardo di Caprio riding an
• Battery: The lithium-ion battery, which is the most commonly used on e-bikes A2B Ultra-Motor, and Miley Cyrus riding a Pedego.
now, weighs only 6 pounds and provides around 1,000 cycles of
charge/discharge. Moreover, the recent addition of Graphene nanotechnology to
lithium batteries is also expected to result in improved energy density.

• Insulated-Gate Bipolar Transistors: They achieve motor speeds of over 4,500 rpm
resulting in higher torque.

111

Sourc es: Cycle Volta; European Cyclists’ F ederation; INSG Insight

 Cargo transportation and new target audiences are also driving the market
Drivers (2/2)

Cargo transportation

Electric cargo bikes (electric utility bikes) make it possible to transport heavier
goods as compared to conventional bikes. This is not only beneficial for individuals
doing their private shopping but also retail and logistics companies looking for a
faster last-mile delivery solution. In fact, companies such as Amazon, Swiggy (India),
Grofers (India) and IKEA have already started using electric bikes for deliveries.
Additionally, a 2023 study by the startup Kale AI found that electric cargo bikes,
such as the Bullitt cargo bike, are much more efficient and cost-effective than vans
for deliveries in cities. In central Brussels, these cargo bikes took routes that were
30% shorter and traveled faster—16km/h compared to the 11km/h of vans stuck in
traffic. On a typical 8.5km route, the bikes were more than twice as fast, taking just
48 minutes compared to 99 minutes for vans.

New target audience

The introduction of e-bikes opened up a new segment of target customers who

haven’t cycled previously because of their physical condition or because of a lack of
perceived convenience. A good example is elderly people, who can handle hills and
headwinds more easily with electric bikes than with conventional ones.

112

Sourc es: Cycle Volta; European Cyclists’ F ederation; INSG Insight; Cleantechnica
CHAPTER 9

E-LCV

As the electric drive of vehicles gradually gains momentum across the world, the next phase of growth is
expected to be driven mainly by vans and trucks.
The need to switch to cleaner engines is far greater for these larger vehicles, given that they pollute more
than cars. Even though less than 5% of vehicles in Europe are commercial vehicles or heavy-duty trucks,
they contribute to almost 20% of greenhouse gas emissions.
One of the main reasons why the light commercial vehicles (LCV) industry is witnessing electric disruption
at such a fast pace is its high and predictable use rate.
 Electric light commercial vehicles (e-LCVs) witness increasing adoption
Overview (1/3)

As the electrification drive of vehicles gradually gains momentum across the world, This trend has also witnessed government support in many countries around the
the next phase of growth is expected to be driven mainly by vans and trucks. The world in the form of laws, grants and exemptions. You can find some examples
need to switch to cleaner engines is far greater for these larger vehicles, given that below:
they pollute more than cars. According to the IEA, tailpipe CO2 emissions from
• UK: The government’s maximum grant for electric LCVs amounts to ₤2,500 for
heavy-duty vehicles have risen by an average of 2.2% annually since 2000. In fact,
small vans and ₤5000 for large vans. In addition, large fleet operators will be
commercial trucks and buses account for nearly 25% of CO2 emissions in the U.S.,
limited to 1,000 van grants per year. Moreover, there is no vehicles excise duty
according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics.
for 100% electric vans.
One of the main reasons why the light commercial vehicles (LCV) industry is
• Germany: From July 2018, German OEMs can apply for government grants
witnessing electric disruption at such a fast pace is due to its high and predictable
ranging from €12,000 to €40,000 depending on the trucks’ weight, to a maximum
use rate. These vehicles are not only driven for long periods, but also on
of €500,000 per company. These vehicles are now also exempt from any form of
predictable routes and for almost the same number of hours each day. This makes
road tax.
it easy to set up charging stations either at home or at work because that’s mainly
where they charge. Moreover, since they mainly transport goods within a city or • Norway: In Norway, the TCO of the e-LCV is already lower than that for a diesel
town, most often a single charge is enough to operate them for the whole day. vehicle mainly because of its favorable taxation system. UK conditions are a
mixed bag, with a competitive TCO for only some of the vehicles. In the
This is in contrast to heavy trucks and buses which usually travel intercity and thus
Netherlands on the other hand, the TCO of the e-LCV is relatively higher partly
require an extensive charging station infrastructure. Logistics firms are therefore
due to insurance premiums being based on vehicle weight (batteries make e-
increasingly finding it more economical to convert their fleets to electric vehicles,
LCV's heavier).
especially for urban routes and ‘last-mile’ deliveries.

114

Sourc es: Hitachi Capital; J.P. Morgan; Medium

 EU countries have the most generous grants and incentives
Overview (2/3)

• India: Plans to expand the freight category to include electric LCVs in its latest • Netherlands: Electric vehicles are fully exempt from BMP or private tax until 2024,
draft EV policy. This will include a generous allotment of funds mainly collected as while plug-in hybrid vehicles will be subject to a lower BMP from 2026. Publicly
pollution cess and road tax among other environment taxes. used electric vehicles will be granted purchase subsidies: €2,030 per vehicle
starting in 2021 and dropping to €1,830 in 2024.
• France: In 2009, the French government introduced a new bonus scheme of
€5,000 for e-LCVs emitting less than 60g CO2/km—automatically covering all EVs. • Sweden: Sweden introduced a bonus-malus system for the purchase of light-
The bonus scheme ran until the first 100,000 low-carbon vehicles were trucks and buses. These pure EVs receive a purchase incentive bonus of 60,000
purchased in 2012. Now, pure e-LCVs get up to €6,000 but PHEVs are no longer Swedish krona (€5,700), so long as the climate bonus does not exceed 25% of the
included in the list. Those looking to scrap a vehicle whilst purchasing an EV can vehicle’s value. For companies buying a climate bonus vehicle, the bonus must
expect up to an extra €2,500. not exceed 35% of the difference between the new vehicle price and a
comparable petrol or diesel vehicle’s new price. The bonus is paid directly to the
• Spain: e-LCVs purchases will be subsidized with government payouts of €5,000
owner six months after the vehicle is registered, preventing the vehicle being sold
while automakers, importers, or dealers must also offer a minimum discount of
within that time period. For every gram of CO2 above zero and up to 60g/km, the
€1,000 on each vehicle. Consumers wishing to purchase an e-LCV with such
bonus gets reduced by 833 Swedish krona per g/km.
subsidies must scrap their existing vehicle if it is more than 10 years old.
• Austria: In June 2020, Austria updated their subsidy packet from €3,000 to €5,000
for electrified vehicles, with the automotive industry contributing €2,000 towards
the subsidy. Moreover, as per the new policy, home-charging stations and
intelligent charging cables are also eligible for a €600 grant.

115

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA); WardsAuto; Volkswagen; Autovista Group
 DHL deploys e-LCVs for its last-mile delivery
Overview (3/3)

2018 was the breakout year for e-LCVs with the introduction of many models such DHL – from logistics to manufacturing
as Mercedes eVito and eSprinter, Nissan e-NV200 2018, and the Renault Master ZE.
In 2013, when DHL wanted to buy electric LCVs to make its last-mile delivery more
With advancements in battery capacity, improving efficiencies and restrictive
environmentally friendly, it couldn’t find an OEM which would provide it with the
policies on diesel vehicles, electricity is fast becoming the favored source of fuel for
required vehicles. It then decided to develop its own vehicle instead and
LCVs all around the world.
strategically acquired StreetScooter, a startup focused on manufacturing
What is particularly encouraging is that this change is now being witnessed even in commercial electric vehicles. However, in February 2020, the company announced
countries like India, which have historically been slow in electric vehicle adoption. its decision to stop production by the end of the year, due to heavy financial losses.
For instance, in May 2022, Tata Motors launched the Ace EV, a small commercial One of the main reasons for this was the lack of an ideal strategic partner who
vehicle with an aim to fulfill green intra-city deliveries for logistic service providers could help DHL scale up production capacity.
such as Flipkart and Amazon.
The company has now deployed approximately 100 Lightning eMotors electric Ford
In spite of a bright forecast, the main challenge the industry is likely to face in the Transit vans. The Transit 350HD Class 3 model includes proprietary telematics and
short to medium term is to present an economically viable business case to analytics software to help with route optimization, driver training, and vehicle
convince fleet owners to switch to an electric powertrain. For this, the total cost of efficiencies. More recently in January 2022, DHL also deployed three new BYD-made
ownership (TCO) of an e-LCV needs to be lower than that of a diesel variant and this electric vans that can travel up to 155 miles on a single charge while bearing/
is already happening in a few countries. transporting a load of up to 3.5 cubic meters. These developments are part of the
company’s sustainability roadmap that will result in an investment of over €7 billion
in climate control logistics by 2030.

116

Sourc es: DHL; Hitachi Capital; J.P. Morgan; Medium

 Top 10 leading countries in terms of new e-LCV sales in 2023
e-LCV sales

Top 10 leading countries in terms of new e-LCV sales in 2023

240,000

41.000

30.220
25.360
22.110

13.200
10.090 10.005 8.930 8.705

Mainland China South Korea France Germany UK Canada Netherlands Spain Norway Sweden

117

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Top 10 leading countries: New e-LCV sales (1/5)

Number of e-LCVs (PEV and PHEV) sold in Mainland China Number of e-LCVs (PEV and PHEV) sold in South Korea(1)
240.000

171.500

68.000 71.160
54.000
36.000 41.000
27.027 26.001 29.000
15.000 11.000 15.000
150 670 750 480 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 18 14 n.a. 300 1.500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

118 Notes: (1) 2011-2014, and 2017 data not available

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Top 10 leading countries: New e-LCV sales (2/5)

Number of e-LCVs (PEV and PHEV) sold in France Number of e-LCVs (PEV and PHEV) sold in Germany
30.220

25.360

18.770

16.520
13.310
12.800

9.200 8.980
8.200 8.104
6.700
6.000 6.000
5.100 4.500 4.910 5.500 4.500
3.600
2.400
1.700
280
950 602 720 1.002

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

119

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Top 10 leading countries: New e-LCV sales (3/5)

Number of e-LCVs (PEV and PHEV) sold in the UK Number of e-LCVs (PEV and PHEV) sold in Canada(1)

22.110

17.410

13.200 13.200

10.100

6.260
5.200
3.710
3.000
1.394 1.650
410 794 1.058 1.078
220 290 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 6 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

120 Notes: (1) 2011-2014, and 2016-2019 data not available

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Top 10 leading countries: New e-LCV sales (4/5)

Number of e-LCVs (PEV and PHEV) sold in Netherlands Number of e-LCVs (PEV and PHEV) sold in Spain

10.090
10.005

5.035

3.346 3.594

2.346
1.733 1.800 1.900 2.000
1.400
1.000 720 840
590 650 360 540
340 180 260 290 24 200 72
72

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

121

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Top 10 leading countries: New e-LCV sales (5/5)

Number of e-LCVs (PEV and PHEV) sold in Norway Number of e-LCVs (PEV and PHEV) sold in Sweden
8.930
8.705

7.220

5.000

2.611 2.600
2.000 2.100
1.800 1.658
1.400
710 640 770 769
560
340 280 210 280 327 200
42 61 9 45

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

122

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Germany has the highest number of e-LCVs in Europe
e-LCVs fleet in Europe

e-LCV fleet in Europe in 2023

90.600
82.600

70.900

30.660
24.210 23.160 23.100 24.555
21.430

10.190 8.800 7.690 5.806 4.809 3.490

Germany France UK Norway Spain Netherlands Italy Sweden Switzerland Denmark Belgium Poland Portugal Finland Other
Europe

123

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

CHAPTER 10

Consumer insights

Consumer insights show that gasoline and diesel lead in terms of drives in respondents’ primarily used
car in the U.S., the UK, and Germany. While gasoline is still the most probable drive in a future car,
hybrids and electric drives are catching up.
 Gasoline and diesel lead in terms of drives in the primarily used car
Electric cars: Overview (1/3)

The Statista survey on mobility conducted between July 2023 to June 2024 focused Drive in primarily used car in %
on the residential online population in the U.S., Germany and the U.K. who have a
81
car in their household and/or plan to purchase one in the next 12 months. Gasoline 62
It covers the following topics: general information about the car in the household, 57
7
usage, brands, drives and their typology, alternative drives and eMobility in
Hybrid 8
particular, public transport, car-sharing and attitudes. 10
More exciting results of this survey can be found for the U.S., the UK and Germany. 5
Diesel 24
The most common drive types currently are gasoline and While U.K. has the diesel. 26
strongest presence of diesel cars in the sample, hybrids(1) are more common in the 5
U.S. than diesel cars. Electric drives are still very uncommon. Electric 5
6
Looking at the drive people would consider in their next car purchase, hybridsand 1
electric drives are preferred to diesel drive. The survey also shows that the Don’t know 0
preference for gasoline as a drive is marginally reducing. 1
1
Other 1
0
U.S. Germany UK

125 Notes: (1) Combination of combustion and electric drive

“Which of these propulsion types does your primarily used car use?“; Single Pick; U.S.: n=8,510, UK: n=3,365, Germany: n=4,942; Residential online population, who have a car available in their household
Sourc es: Statista Global Consumer Survey, as of July 2024
 Gasoline still the most probable drive for future car purchases
Electric cars: Overview (2/3)

Probable drive in a future car in %

66

52
50

38
34
31
26 27 27
24
21

9 8
6 7 6 6
4 3
2 1

Gasoline Hybrid Electric Diesel Don’t know Buying a car is not Other
an option for me
U.S. Germany UK

126 Notes: “Which of these propulsion types do you consider when buying a car” Multi Pick; U.S.: n=10,073, UK: n=4,031, Germany: n=6,001 ; Residential online population, all respondents

Sourc es: Statista Global Consumer Survey, as of July 2024

 Fuel efficiency is the most important criteria for a new car in the U.S.
Electric cars: Overview (3/3)

Purchase criteria for new cars in %

57
53 53 54 53
48 48
45 45
42 42 42 42 42 43
39 38 39
36
34 33
32 31 30 31 31 30
28 27
22 21 22
20 19 20
17

6
3 2

Fuel efficiency Safety Low price High quality Suitability for High driving Good warranty Design Spaciousness My preferred Good Environmental Other
everyday use comfort and customer make connectivity friendliness
service with
smartphones
& internet

U.S. Germany UK

127 Notes: “Which of these characteristics are especially important to you when you decide on a new car?”; Multi Pick; U.S.: n=10,073, U K: n=4,031, Germany: n=6,001; Residential online population, all respondents

Sourc es: Statista Global Consumer Survey, as of July 2024

CHAPTER 11

Competitive landscape

Tesla is the most recognized electric vehicle (EV) brand in the world: In 2023, combined sales of the Model
3 and Model Y totaled 1,739,707 units. Tesla’s success is primarily attributed to its aesthetics and longer
ranges compared to other EVs. BYD is one of the best-selling brands in Mainland China, but its focus on
international markets is limited. The company’s top-selling model in 2023 was the Song with sales of over
627,731 units.
Volkswagen sold a total of 771,100 EVs in 2023, up by 35% as compared to the 572,120 EVs sold in 2022.
The other European player, BMW, has 24 EV models in its portfolio and had over 2.6 million electric
vehicles in circulation by the end of 2023.
In North America, General Motors has unveiled its plans to spend over US$35 billion on its electric and
automated vehicle programs between 2020 and 2025. A relatively new player, Rivian, is making its foray
into the EV market and in May 2024, the company raised nearly US$14.3 billion though its IPO.
 NIO and Rivian are the two biggest challengers to Tesla
Company comparison

Location of selected leading OEMs in EV development Selection of EV

Company Headquarter USP
models
• BMW iX, i4, I7 • Sustainable/recycled interior
BMW Munich, Germany
• BMW Mini Electric • Special leasing/rental offers
Xi'an, Shaanxi, • BYD Han, Atto 3 • Domestic market focus
BYD
Mainland China • BYD e6, Tang • Lower prices
• Futuristic projects (1)
General • Equinox
Michigan, U.S. • Lower price compared to Tesla in
Motors • Silverado
>200 miles battery range
• eT5 and eT7 • Battery-as-a-Service
NIO Shanghai, China • ec6 • Availability of rescue van service
• es6 and es8 with integrated chargers
• Nissan Leaf
Nissan Yokohama, Japan • Advanced dedicated IT system (2)
• Nissan Ariya
• R1T • Focus on pickup trucks and SUVs
Rivian California, U.S. • R1S instead of cars
• R2 • Distinctive styling
• Tesla Model S • Supercharger infrastructure
Tesla California, U.S. • Tesla Model 3 • Cost-free charging
• Tesla Model X, Y • Over-the-air software updates

• ID. Buzz • US$100 billion EV spending until

Wolfsburg,
Volkswagen • ID.7 2026
Germany
• ID.4 • Reliable battery supply chains

129 Notes: (1) Wireless and solar EV charging stations (2) Remote charging and status check via mobile apps

Sourc es: Annual reports; Corporate newsletters

 BMW currently produces 24 electric models
BMW (1/2)

BMW is a German luxury vehicle, motorcycle, and engine manufacturing company

EV model Type Battery range Battery used
founded in 1916. The company launched its first electric vehicle, the BMW i3, in
2013 and its current range of 24 electric vehicles includes fully electric and plug-in BMW iX xDrive50 PEV 379 miles 108.8 kWh lithium-ion
hybrid versions.
BMW i7 eDrive50 PEV 368 miles 101.7 kWh lithium-ion
At the end of 2023, BMW had over 2.6 million electric vehicles including PEVs and
BMW i7 M70 xDrive PEV 368 miles 101.7 kWh lithium-ion
PHEVs in circulation across the world and announced plans to double its PEV sales
by 2025. The company’s range of PEVs includes the X, M, 7, 5, and 4. BMW stopped BMW i7 xDrive60 PEV 354 miles 101.7 kWh lithium-ion

the production of the i3 in June 2022, which had sold nearly 250,000 units since its BMW iX M60 PEV 330 miles 108.6 kWh lithium-ion
launch in 2013 and 37,939 in 2021 alone.
BMW i5 eDrive40 PEV 324 miles 81.2 kWh lithium-ion
• Year founded: 1916
BMW iX3 PEV 290 miles 73.9 kWh lithium-ion
• Number of employees: 154,950 (Dec 2023)
BMW iX2 eDrive20 PEV 285 miles 64.8 kWh lithium-ion
• Revenue (group): US$171.6 billion (Dec 2023)(1)
BMW i4 eDrive35 PEV 281 miles 67.1 kWh lithium-ion
• Revenue (automotive): US$146.0 billion (Dec 2023)(1)
BMW iX1 eDrive20 PEV 281 miles 64.8 kWh lithium-ion
• Net profit: US$13.4 billion (Dec 2023)(1)
BMW iX1 xDrive30 PEV 266 miles 64.8 kWh lithium-ion
• Total cars sold: 2.6 million (Dec 2023)
BMW iX xDrive40 PEV 260 miles 74.1 kWh lithium-ion

130 Notes: (1) Converted from euro to US$, exchange rate: EUR-US$ 1.10364 as of Dec 31, 2023 (Oanda)

Sourc es: Company sources; Annual report; Press releases; The Economic Times
 BMW sales of EVs amounted to more than 565,000 units worldwide in 2023
BMW (2/2)

BMW EV sales in units

2016 32.975 29.280 62,255

2017 63.605 5.799 33.676 103,080

13.279 91.759 37.347

2018 142,385

16.964 86.947 42.249

2019 146,160

17.580 146.919 28.162

2020 192,661

2021 34.851 224.314 69.149 328,314

2022 43.744 218.040 172.008 433,792

2023 45.193 190.159 330.197 565,549

MINI Electric BMW iPerformance (PHEV models) BMW i (PEV Models)

131

Sourc es: BMW annual report 2017, 2019, 2021, 2022; 2023; ElectricVehicleWeb
 BYD’s electric vehicles are among the top sellers of its kind in Mainland China
BYD (1/2)

BYD (Build Your Dreams) Auto Co., Ltd. is a Chinese automobile manufacturer
EV model Type Battery range Battery used
based in Xi'an, Shaanxi Province and a fully owned subsidiary of BYD Company. The
company unveiled its first plug-in hybrid concept car, the BYD F6DM, at the North BYD HAN PEV 376 miles 85.4 kWh LiFePO4
American International Auto Show in January 2008. However, the car remained a
BYD e6 PEV 323 miles 71.7 kWh LiFePO4
prototype, and the company turned its focus towards the development of a
smaller plug-in hybrid compact sedan called the F3DM, the all-electric e6, and the
BYD Atto 3 PEV 298 miles 60.5 kWh LiFePO4
hybrid SUV S8DM. BYD started increasing its international footprint in 2009 and
began to export its electric vehicles to Africa, South America, and the Middle East. In BYD Song Plus PEV 314 miles 71.7 kWh LiFePO4
2013, due to a decline in sales, the company replaced the F3DM with the new plug-
BYD Tang PEV 314 miles 86.4 kWh LiFePO4
in hybrid variant BYD Qin. In 2023, the company sold 3,012,906 EVs, including
1,574,822 PEVs and 1,438,084 PHEVs. BYD Yuan Plus PEV 298 miles 60.5 kWh LiFePO4
• Year founded: 2003
BYD M6 PEV 329 miles 71.8 kWh LiFePO4
• Number of employees: 703,500 (Dec 2023)
BYD Dolphin PEV 304 miles 60.5 kWh LiFePO4
• Revenue (group): US$85.0 billion (Dec 2023)(1)
• Revenue (automotive): US$68.2 billion (Dec 2023)(1) BYD Seal PEV 323 miles 82.5 kWh LiFePO4

• Net profit: US$4,421.0 million (Dec 2023) (1) BYD Seagull PEV 190 miles 30.08 kWh LiFePO4

132 Notes: (1) Converted from CNY to US$, exchange rate: CNY-US$ 0.14105 as of Dec 31, 2023 (Oanda)

Sourc es: Company sources; Annual report; Press releases

 Song was BYD’s top-selling electric vehicle model in 2023
BYD (2/2)

BYD EV sales in 2023 in units

Song 627.731

Qin 434.910

Yuan 338.490

Dolphin 334.800

Seagull 253.664

Han 227.705

133

Sourc es: Inside EVs

 General Motors started to develop electric vehicles in 1990
General Motors (1/2)

General Motors’ foray into electric vehicles started in 1990 with the production of • Year founded: 1908
its concept car, Impact. The response to the prototype motivated the company to
• Number of employees: 163,000 (Dec 2023)
develop and produce the GM EV(1) electric car in 1996. However, the introduction of
ultra low emission vehicles, natural gas vehicles, and hybrid cars in the late 90s • Revenue (group): US$171.8 billion (Dec 2023)

forced the company to discontinue the production of its EV1 by 2002. • Revenue (automotive): US$157.7 billion (Dec 2023)
In 2010, GM debuted the Chevrolet Volt, a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle with • Net profit: US$9.8 billion (Dec 2023)
gasoline-powered backup generators. In 2011, the company announced the
production of the Chevrolet Spark EV, an all-electric version of the third-generation
EV model Type Battery range Battery used
vehicle, the Chevrolet Spark. The Chevrolet Spark EV was later replaced by the Bolt
EV. GM formed a joint venture in Mainland China with SAIC and launched Baojun Chevrolet Equinox PEV 319 miles 85 kWh lithium-ion
E100 (an all-electric vehicle) in August 2017, followed by the E200 in September
2018. In February 2021, the company unveiled its all-electric Chevy Bolt EUV but Chevrolet Silverado PEV 440 miles 200 kWh lithium-ion
was thwarted by battery defects. Additionally, the company has also announced
plans to spend over US$35 billion between 2020 and 2025 on its electric and Chevrolet Blazer EV PEV 324 miles 102 kWh lithium-ion

automated vehicle programs, which includes a US$7 million battery plant in

GMC Hummer EV SUV PEV 314 miles 170 kWh lithium-ion
Michigan.

GMC Hummer EV Pickup PEV 381 miles 200 kWh lithium-ion

134 Notes: (1) GM’s production of the Chevy Bolt EV and EUV was supposed to resume in January 2022 but there is no updated news on this.

Sourc es: Company sources; Annual report; Press releases; CNBC

 Unit sales of Bolt EV in the U.S. grew by more than 110% in 2023
General Motors (2/2)

Bolt EV sales in units

2017 23.297

2018 18.019

2019 16.418

2020 20.754

2021 22.073

2022 11.029

2023 23.164

135

Sourc es: Gmauthority

 NIO currently has five electric vehicle models on the market
NIO (1/2)

NIO, previously Nextev, was founded in 2014 and is a manufacturer of premium • Year founded: 2014
electric vehicles and batteries. The company also provides battery charging and
• Number of employees: 32,820 (Dec 2023)
battery swap facilities through its Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) offer.
• Revenue (group): US$7.8 billion (Dec 2023)
NIO’s first electric car, the EP9, was launched in 2016 and set the world record for
the fastest all-electric car at Nürburgring’s Nordschleife track (also known as “The • Revenue (automotive): US$6.9 billion (Dec 2023)
Green Hell”) in Germany. Subsequent launches included the ES8 seven-seater SUV • Net loss: US$2,918.3 million (Dec 2023)
in 2017, the six-seater ES8 in 2018, the ES6 SUV in 2018, the EC6 smart electric
coupe SUV in 2019, and the ET7 electric sedan in 2021. By the end of 2023, the
EV model Type Battery range Battery used
company had delivered a total of 449,594 vehicles, with 160,038 units delivered in EV model Type Battery range Battery used
2023 alone. eT5 PEV 621 miles 150 kWh lithium-ion
eT5 PEV 621 miles 150 kWh lithium-ion
NIO has also established NIO Life, a lifestyle brand covering apparel, home and
living, travel, consumer electronics, cars, food, and wine. By the end of 2020, the eT7 PEV 652 miles 150 kWh lithium-ion
eT7 PEV 652 miles 150 kWh lithium-ion
brand had delivered over 2.6 million products through its online and offline
eC6 PEV 581 miles 150 kWh lithium-ion
channels. The company’s offices are located throughout the world: Beijing, eC6 PEV 581 miles 150 kWh lithium-ion
Shanghai, Nanjing, Hefei, San Jose, Oslo, Oxford, and Munich.
eS8 PEV 559 miles 150 kWh lithium-ion
eS8 PEV 559 miles 150 kWh lithium-ion

eS6 PEV 578 miles 150 kWh lithium-ion

eS6 PEV 578 miles 150 kWh lithium-ion

136

Sourc es: Company sources; Annual report; Press releases; CNBC; Autoexpress
 NIO delivered 160,038 vehicles in 2023
NIO (2/2)

NIO EV sales in units

2018 11.348

2019 20.565

2020 43.728

2021 91.429

2022 122.486

2023 160.038

137

Sourc es: Company sources

 Nissan launched its first electric vehicle, the Tama, as early as 1947
Nissan (1/2)

Nissan Motor Company Ltd or Nissan, is a Japanese multinational automobile • Year founded: 1933
manufacturer headquartered in Nishi-ku, Yokohama. The company sells its cars
• Number of employees: 133,580 (Mar 2024)
under the Nissan, Infiniti, and Datsun brands. Nissan’s Tama, its first EV and
equipped with lead batteries, was launched in 1947. However, it was only after the • Revenue (group): US$83.8 billion (Mar 2024)(1)

launch of the Hypermini in 2000 that the company’s EV division gained momentum. • Net income: US$3.0 billion (Mar 2024) (1)
Nissan’s flagship EV brand, Leaf, was launched in 2009. In 2014, global sales of Leaf
surpassed the 100,000 mark and achieved a total of 650,000 units in 2023. The
company also launched the Leaf e+, an upgrade to the existing Leaf model in
January 2019. In July 2020. The company plans to spend more than US$17 billion
over the next five years to accelerate the rollout of electric vehicles featuring 23
new models by 2030.

EV model Type Battery range Battery used

Nissan Leaf PEV 226 miles 62 kWh lithium-ion

Nissan Sakura PEV 112 miles 20 kWh lithium-ion

Nissan Ariya SUV PEV 310 miles 90 kWh lithium-ion

138 Notes: (1) Converted from Yen (J PY) to US$, exchange rate: J PY-US$ 0.00661 as of Mar 31, 2024 (Oanda)

Sourc es: Company sources; Annual report; Press releases; Hindustan Times; Inside EVs
 Compared to 2022, sales of Nissan’s Leaf decreased by 33% in 2023
Nissan (2/2)

Nissan Leaf EV sales in units

2017 16.811 11.230 16.925 44,966

2018 43.090 14.715 25.722 83,527

2019 31.906 12.365 19.784 64,055

2020 30.324 9.564 11.286 51,174

2021 35.811 14.239 10.843 60,893

2022 29.093 12.025 12.732 53,850

2023 18.777 7.152 10.026 35,955

Europe U.S. Japan

139

Sourc es: Company sources

 Rivian’s IPO toppled Facebook from its position among U.S. companies
Rivian (1/2)

Founded in 2009, Rivian Automotive is an American electric vehicle manufacturer.

The company, whose investors include Amazon, Ford, and T. Rowe Price, among
others, is currently manufacturing an electric pickup truck (R1T) and a sports utility
vehicle (R1S). Production of the FF91 line of sedans is set to begin in 2022. Like
Tesla, Rivian uses a skateboard platform, a flexible proprietary architecture that
facilitates the seamless manufacture of different types of vehicles.

Although Rivian had made only 1,015 vehicles at its factory in Illinois by the end of
2021, plans are being made to ramp up production at its new US$5 billion factory
just outside Atlanta, Georgia in 2024. In 2023, the company produced 57,232
vehicles and delivered 50,122.

In November 2021, Rivian raised nearly US$12 billion in what was the biggest IPO of
the year and assigned the company a valuation of over US$100 billion. This was
more than the valuations of General Motors, Ford, and Honda but far behind
Tesla’s. However, the company’s market value has since dropped to approximately
US$65 billion. Rivian plans to use these funds to produce 150,000-200,000 vehicles
annually by 2023/2024. In May 2024, Rivian raised nearly US$14.3 billion.

140

Sourc es: Company sources; Electrek; Time; Fortune

 Rivian’s IPO toppled Facebook from its position among U.S. companies
Rivian (2/2)

• Year founded: 2009

• Number of employees: 16,790 (Dec 2023)

• Revenue (group): US$4.4 billion (Dec 2023)

• Revenue (automotive): N/A

• Net loss: US$5.4 billion (Dec 2023)

EV model Type Battery range Battery used

R1T PEV / electric pickup truck 401 miles 149 kWh lithium-ion

R1S PEV / electric SUV 400 miles 135 kWh lithium-ion

EDV700(1) PEV 201 miles -

R2(2) PEV - -

141 Notes: (1) Rivian is making a total of 100,000 vans only for Amazon. Technical details of the vehicle are not out yet. (2) The R2 is expected to be manufactured sometime in the future. No technical details are available yet.

Sourc es: Company sources; Electrek; Time; Fortune; Annual report

 Tesla currently has four electric vehicle models on the market
Tesla: Overview (1/2)

Tesla designs and develops fully electric vehicles and energy storage systems. The • Year founded: 2003
company also installs, operates, and maintains solar and energy storage products.
• Number of employees: 140,473 (Dec 2023)
It currently sells four fully electric vehicles: the Model S sedan, the Model X sport
• Revenue (group): US$96.8 billion (Dec 2023)
utility vehicle (SUV), the Model 3 (a lower-priced sedan), and the Model Y SUV. In
2025, Tesla’s Semi — first seen as a prototype in 2017 — will be brought to market, • Revenue (automotive): US$82.4 billion (Dec 2023)
and the second-generation Roadster is expected to be shipped in 2025. The • Net profit: US$15.0 billion (Dec 2023)
company’s vehicles are sold through its own branded stores.

In addition to manufacturing electric vehicles, Tesla looks to leverage its expertise

in batteries, power electronics, and integrated systems to manufacture and sell
energy storage products. Its main manufacturing facilities are located in Fremont
EV model Type Battery range Battery used
and Lathrop (California), Tilburg (the Netherlands), and Reno (Nevada).
Tesla Model S PEV 402 miles 100 kWh lithium-ion

Tesla Model X PEV 335 miles 100 kWh lithium-ion

Tesla Model 3 PEV 341 miles 82 kWh lithium-ion

Tesla Model Y PEV 320 miles 81 kWh lithium-ion

142

Sourc es: Company sources; Annual report; Press releases; CNBC; Autoexpress
 In 2023, more than 1.7 million Tesla Model 3s and Model Ys were sold
Tesla: Overview (2/2)

Tesla EV deliveries in 2023 in units

Tesla Model 3/Y 1.739.707

Other Models 68.874

143

Sourc es: Press releases

 Tesla’s sole focus on electric vehicles pays off in technological superiority
Tesla: Technological superiority (1/2)

Before Tesla’s became a serious contender in the automobile industry, other major Tesla’s proprietary operating system allows its technology to remain both highly
car manufacturers had more financial resources at their disposal. However, over flexible and secure. Furthermore, since the company has made most of its
the past few years, Tesla has been able to establish a more robust and advanced technology remotely transmittable, all cars can be instantly upgraded through
technological infrastructure. In the book Zero to One by Peter Thiel, the founder of regular updates to new operating systems. Some of Tesla’s innovative technologies
PayPal, he acknowledges, “Tesla's technology is so good that other car companies include:
rely on it.” That Daimler once relied on Tesla’s battery packs, Mercedes-Benz its
• AI powered fleet learning: The thousands of cars that make up Tesla’s entire fleet
powertrain, and Toyota its motor all demonstrate Tesla’s technological dominance
are now using AI and big data to transfer information between networked cars to
in the global automotive industry.
improve the driving experience in terms of both safety and performance. Key to
One factor which places Tesla in a category of its own is its ability to produce large the company’s autonomous driving research is the uninterrupted cellular
volumes of high-end electric vehicles. Its efforts are focused solely on continuously connection to its cars; every 10 hours, 1 million miles of self-driving data is made
improving its technological expertise in all aspects of the value chain, ranging from available. In August 2021, Tesla launched D1, a custom chip that trains AI
battery range to autonomous driving. networks in data centers to recognize various events from video feeds collected
by cameras inside Tesla cars. These chips are expected to enhance Tesla’s Full
Traditional automobile companies, by contrast, merely experiment with electric
Self-Driving Capability that enables vehicles to autonomously change lanes,
vehicles as most of their profits are earned from the production of ICE cars. If they
navigate highways, and maneuver into parking spaces.
were to start mass production of electric vehicles, they would risk cannibalizing
their own market share and position. However, Tesla has more than its advanced
technology working in its favor. It has also achieved mastery over managing and
delivering its entire technology infrastructure.

144

Sourc es: Company sources; Annual report; Press releases; CNBC; Autoexpress
 Most of the vehicles are equipped with radar technology
Tesla: Technological superiority (2/2)

• Battery innovation: Tesla is gradually moving away from the standard nickel
cobalt aluminum oxide (NCA) cells to lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathodes. Due
to the dwindling supply of nickel at competitive rates, automobiles are becoming
more expensive. The company is also producing the 4680 battery cell, a tabless
cylindrical cell that is said to have 600% more power and 500% more energy
capacity. Meanwhile, Tesla’s high-end Model S and Model X cars are powered by
its 100 kWh battery pack with a range of 315 miles and 289 miles, respectively.
The packs feature a novel design and a new way to cool the battery cells as they
discharge energy.

• Radar technology: The radar processing technology available in its Autopilot

software enables the system to see two cars ahead. Since it bounces underneath
or around the vehicle, it has access to a view that a driver does not typically have.
As a result, radar technology can predict an accident about two seconds faster
than a driver. Tesla has dropped the radar technology for the Model Y and Model
3 vehicles sold in North America, but new Model S and Model X vehicles and all
models built for other markets are still equipped with this technology.

145

Sourc es: Company sources; Annual report; Press releases; CNBC; Autoexpress
 By centralizing the supply chain, Tesla is able to lower its costs
Tesla: Centralization of the supply chain (1/2)

Tesla’s ability to centralize some crucial elements of the supply chain gives it the In turn, Tesla uses these fees to expand the network of charging stations.
scale and efficiencies to improve performance, lower costs, and deliver a superior
• Unified computing architecture: Tesla’s unified computing architecture has given
customer experience. It also allows the company to make quick changes to its
the company a sizeable competitive advantage in the industry. Most notably, it
custom manufacturing processes, prevent loss of patents, increase speed of
has enabled Tesla to navigate the ongoing semiconductor shortage more
innovation, and improve its speed-to-market. Some key features include:
effectively than other manufacturers that have had to endure production delays,
• Battery production: The company’s US$5 billion Gigafactory in Nevada is suspended models, and resultant sharp price increases. By owning its own
expected to reduce the cost of battery production by as much as 35% by software, the company’s AI engineers were able to access, modify, and rewrite
streamlining labor, time, and transport. Experts in the industry have predicted the software according to their needs and thereby make use of available chips
that battery cost needs to come down to about US$100/kWh if electric vehicles from other vendors. Unsurprisingly and whereas most other manufacturers
are to witness mass adoption. The Gigafactory gives Tesla the best possible struggled, Tesla sold almost twice the number of cars in 2021 as compared to
chance to achieve this reduction in cost by securing the benefits of 2020.
manufacturing on a large scale.
• Distribution network: In addition to battery production and a unified computing
• Charging network: Tesla has the most comprehensive and ubiquitous network of architecture, Tesla’s entire distribution network is also in-house; the company
self-owned charging stations among all-electric vehicle manufacturers. At the end sells directly to the end consumer via its website and company-owned
of 2023, it had approximately 5,952 super-charging stations and over 54,892 showrooms. Even though this requires a high level of upfront investment, the
charging points globally. Initially offered free of cost, customers who purchased a company saves money in the long run by eliminating the factors of dealer
Tesla after January 1, 2017 must pay a “small fee” to recharge their cars. markups and excess inventory.

146

Sourc es: Wired; Electrek; Harvard B usiness School; Torque News

 Tesla’s ambition: to control the entire battery supply chain
Tesla: Centralization of the supply chain (2/2)

In September 2020, Elon Musk announced Tesla’s goals to build a US$25,000 mass-
market electric car and to ramp up annual production to 20 million cars. Achieving
these rather ambitious goals hinges on securing complete control of all elements of
the battery supply chain process.

• Cathode production: To begin with, Musk intends to develop an independent

cathode plant, with the benefits of reducing supply chain costs while simplifying
production processes and eliminating many of the intermediate steps. These
cathodes will be 76% less expensive compared to current prices and not generate
wastewater. In February 2022, Tesla applied to build a new facility to
manufacture cathode materials for batteries, next to its Gigafactory in Austin.

• Novel cell: Instead of buying cells from various suppliers, Tesla is now developing
a proprietary ‘4680’ cell for its pilot line on Kato Road in Fremont, California. This
cell has 16% more range, an improved power-to-weight ratio, and much higher
energy outputs. Its reduced number of connections —1,800 as compared to the
current 8,800 — is expected to result in a 40% reduction in steel usage. The
production of automotive-grade battery cells at consistently high volumes and
quality is another sign of the importance of vertical integration to Tesla’s strategy.

147

Sourc es: Wired; Electrek; Harvard B usiness School; Bloomberg

 Tesla scores with aesthetics and range in the luxury EV segment
Tesla: Unique market positioning

One of the main reasons for Tesla’s success is that it has managed to ride the
electric vehicle wave with a unique market positioning. Tesla is currently the only
electric vehicle brand to manufacture luxury, long-range cars on a large scale.
Other companies such as Nissan, Chevrolet, and BMW either make low-frill electric
cars with shorter ranges or expensive plug-in hybrids.

The Model S is currently the only car in the luxury long-range electric vehicle market
with a range of 402 miles on a single charge and a top speed of 163 mph.

Aesthetics, which is especially important in industries of consumer electronics,

fashion, and automotive, is another area where the Model S scores above every
other electric car in the market today.

According to experts at the Harvard Business School and the Wharton School at the
University of Pennsylvania, Tesla is bound to perform well based on its brand
strength and distinctiveness from other car manufacturers.

148

Sourc es: Wired; Electrek; Harvard B usiness School

 Tesla faced liquidity issues due to Model 3 manufacturing problems
Tesla: Model 3 manufacturing problems (1/2)

When Tesla Motors started accepting orders for the Model 3 in 2016, it received However, these concerns have now been laid to rest after Tesla’s stock increased by
nearly US$10 billion in pre-orders in just two hours. With a base model price of over 740% in 2020 and by additional 50% in 2021 in spite of much global
US$35,000, the Model 3 was thought to be the electric car that would take the uncertainty. In fact, Tesla is now valued higher than the combined value of Toyota,
segment mainstream. Volkswagen, Daimler, General Motors, BYD, and NIO.

However, two years later, Tesla missed its production targets and also used up its One of the main reasons behind the Model 3 delays was the company’s problems
budget in the process. The company fell far short of its original promise to with battery production at its Gigafactory in Sparks, Nevada.
manufacture 5,000 Model 3 automobiles every week by the end of 2017 and was
According to statements given by Tesla’s current and former employees, the
able to deliver only 1,764 in the final two quarters of that year. However, things
company at the time could not to fully automate the battery manufacturing
started turning around for the company and delivered 92,550 Model 3 cars in the
process. As a result, they had to produce them partly manually, which in turn
fourth quarter of 2019 against a target of 87,900 cars.
created production delays. Moreover, mistakes were made by some external
Another major concern for the company was the cash burn it suffered between vendors who were responsible for two of the battery zones. Potential fire hazards
2017 and 2019. At the end of 2019, Tesla announced a loss of US$775 million on caused by insufficient distances between lithium-ion cells were also reported to
revenues of US$24.6 billion. This prompted credit analysts to question the media sources.
company’s liquidity and speculate about its ability to raise more money from the
financial markets amid declining investor confidence.

149

Sourc es: Harvard B usiness School; Wharton; CNBC

 Heavy reliance on robots resulted in production delays of the Model 3
Tesla: Model 3 manufacturing problems (2/2)

Another difficulty Tesla encountered with the Model 3 production was excessive Therefore, even though the Model 3’s design was overall much easier to build
automation. Whereas Tesla’s future as a mass-market manufacturer of compared to Tesla’s other models, the intensely automated production line and
automobiles hinges mainly on the successful automated production of its Model 3, failure of one of the subcontractors made it necessary for Tesla to rewrite most of
this is exactly where the company faced problems in 2018/2019. the software from scratch and redo the mechanical and electrical elements in one
area of the plant.
In an April 2018 interview with CBS Good Morning, Elon Musk confirmed that the
major reason behind the production delays of the Model 3 was Tesla’s overreliance
on robots in the assembly lines that had repeatedly malfunctioned.

At the time, industry analysts considered this ironic, as the use of automation and
advanced technologies had been positioned as the primary factors differentiating
Tesla from other automobile manufacturers.

According to analysts at the asset management company Alliance Bernstein, Tesla’s

overreliance on Kuka robots to not only automate the usual stamping, paint, and
welding processes, but also the entire final assembly (including welding and battery
pack assembly) resulted in a breakdown of many processes.

150

Sourc es: CNBC; Mashable; Stuff; The Sydney Morning Herald

 “Artificial intelligence is not a substitute for human intelligence; it is a tool to
amplify human creativity and ingenuity.”

Dr. Fei-Fei Li
Stanford University, 2023

151
 Repeated vehicle recalls suggest manufacturing defects
Tesla: Vehicle recalls

In March 2018, Tesla recalled 123,000 of its Model S cars to repair excessively In 2014, charging defects and fire hazards forced the company to recall 20,222
corroded power steering bolts. Although the steering wheels continued to function, Model S sedans. This was followed by another recall on 90,000 vehicles from the
significantly more force was required. This made the car harder to drive at lower same model resulting from a defect in the front seat belt assembly.
speeds and also made parallel parking more difficult. In January 2021, the National
Both the Model S and the Model X have attracted media attention based on
Highway Traffic Safety Administration asked the company to recall 158,000 Model S
malfunctions in their self-driving feature. In August 2021, the U.S. government
and Model X vehicles due to faulty display consoles that when inoperable,
opened a formal investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot system, after many collisions
disconnected driver access to the car’s backup camera, climate control systems,
with parked emergency vehicles left 17 people injured and one dead. The
and the Autopilot driver assistance system.
investigation included Tesla’s entire electric vehicle lineup (Tesla Model X, Tesla
In December 2021, Tesla recalled over 475,000 of its Model 3 and Model S cars in Model Y, Tesla Model S, and Tesla Model 3) sold in the period between 2014 and
the U.S. and an additional 200,000 in China because rear-view camera and trunk 2021. In another incident in 2019, a Tesla driver on Autopilot ran a red light,
issues had increased the risk of collisions. collided into another car, and killed two people.

These are not the only examples of Tesla recalling its cars due to manufacturing These recalls and production delays both tarnished the company’s image and
defects. In 2017, malfunctioning parking brakes and a faulty locking mechanism drastically drove its stock prices down.
forced Tesla to recall 53,000 Model X and Model S vehicles.

152

Sourc es: CNBC; Mashable; Stuff; The Sydney Morning Herald; NPR
 Volkswagen is the market leader for electric vehicles in Europe
Volkswagen (1/2)

Volkswagen’s (VW’s) electric vehicle journey can be traced back to 1970 when it • Year founded: 1937
opened its Centre for Future Research to develop a powertrain for the future. A few
• Number of employees: 684,025 (Dec 2023)
years later, the company launched the electric T2 Camper with a 70 km range and
the Golf I City-STROMer in 1981. • Revenue (group): US$355.7 billion (Dec 2023)(1)

Since then, VW has become one of the leading electric vehicle manufacturers in the • Net profit: US$19.8 billion (Dec 2023) (1)
world and has the largest market share in Europe. In December 2021, the company
announced an investment of over US$100 billion in electric mobility over the next EV model Type Battery range Battery used
five years and expects 25% of all vehicle sales in 2026 to come from EVs. This is the
ID. Buzz PEV 258 miles 77 kWh lithium-ion
first time the company has allocated over half its total spending for electric
vehicles. ID.7 PEV 434 miles 85 kWh lithium-ion

In 2023, the company sold a total of 771,100 PEVs compared to 572,500 in 2022, ID.3 PEV 340 miles 82 kWh lithium-ion
which is a 35% increase. Although the European region holds the top spot for VW’s
ID.4 PEV 291 miles 82 kWh lithium-ion
sales of electric vehicles, China remained the single largest market with 191,800
PEVs (up by 23% from 2022) sold in 2023, followed by the U.S. with 71,200 PEVs (up Q4 e-tron PEV 323 miles 77 kWh lithium-ion
by 61% from 2022). VW also plans to set up an independent battery manufacturing
Cupra Born PEV 341 miles 77 kWh lithium-ion
company with total estimated sales of US$34 billion.
Taycan PEV 288 miles 83.7 kWh lithium-ion

153 Notes: (1) Converted from euro to US$, exchange rate: EUR-US$ 1.10364 as of Dec 31, 2023 (Oanda)

Sourc es: Company sources; Annual report; Press releases; CNN

 Volkswagen sold over 393,000 electric vehicles in 2023
Volkswagen (2/2)

Volkswagen EV sales in units

393.700
Volkswagen cars
325.100

178.400
Audi
118.200

81.700
Skoda
53.700

40.600
Porsche
34.800

45.300
SEAT/Cupra
31.400
Volkswagen 29.300
commercial vehicles 7.500
Other (MAN, 2.100
Scania, Navistar) 1.420

2023 2022

154

Sourc es: Inside EVs

CHAPTER 12

Country analysis

In 2023, Mainland China, the U.S., and Germany were the three biggest markets for electric vehicles and
accounted for more than 74% of all electric vehicle sales globally. Most of the European countries
witnessed robust sales in 2023 as compared to 2022. In Japan, electric vehicles sales increased in 2022
after the downward trend between 2018 and 2020.

In terms of charging infrastructure, Mainland China once again leads the pack with more than 2,700,000
publicly accessible charging points, followed by South Korea (approx. 201,000), the U.S. (approx. 183,000),
and the Netherlands (approx. 145,800).
 74% of 2023 sales were in Mainland China, the U.S., and Germany
Overview (1/2)

New electric cars registrations in thousands in 2023

74%

8,100

1.390
1.223

700
470 450
210 193 171 171 140 136 132 122 110 82

Mainland U.S. Germany France UK The Belgium Canada Sweden Japan Italy South Spain Norway India Rest of
China Netherlands Korea the world

156

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Mainland China also leads the race in terms of EV charging points
Overview (2/2)

Number of publicly accessible charging points in thousands in 2023

2,700

201
183

146 143
118
108

53 48 44
35 32 27 27 26
11

Mainland South U.S. The France Germany UK Italy Belgium Sweden Japan Norway Canada Spain India Rest of
China Korea Netherlands the world

157

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Country analysis: Mainland China (1/2)

New electric cars registrations in thousands PEVs and PHEVs sales share by models in 2023
10 0
2012 10 7,8%
15 1
2013 16 5,6%
49 24
2014 73
5,4%
150 61
2015 211
260 79 4,2%
2016 339
470 110
2017 580 4,1%
2018 820 270 1,090
2019 830 230 1,060
2020 920 220 1,140 72,9%
2021 2,700 550 3,250
2022 4,400 1,500 5,900
37.3%
2023 5,400 2,700 8,100 BYD Song Plus BYD Qin Plus BYD Dolphin
PEV PHEV Tesla Model Y BYD Yuan Plus Others

158

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA); Inside EVs

 Country analysis: Mainland China (2/2)

Number of publicly accessible charging points in thousands

2014 30
21 9
2015 59
47 12
2016 141
86 55
2017 213
130 83
2018 270
160 110
2019 300 210 510

2020 500 310 810

2021 680 470 1,150

2022 1,000 760 1,760

2023 1,500 1,200 2,700

Slow charger(1) Fast charger(2)

159 Notes: (1) Slow chargers include AC level 1 (≤ 3.7 kW) and AC level 2 chargers (> 3.7 kW and ≤ 22 kW) (2) Fast chargers include AC 4 3 kW chargers, DC chargers, Tesla Superchargers and inductive chargers

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Country analysis: U.S. (1/3)

New electric cars registrations in thousands PEVs and PHEVs sales share by brand in 2023
15 39
2012 54
48 49
2013 97
63 55 23,6%
2014 118
2015 114
71 43
2016 87 73 160
100 94
2017 194 4,1%
2018 240 120 360 56,2%
4,5%
2019 240 85 325
2020 230 64 294 5,6%

2021 470 160 630 6,1%

2022 800 190 990
40.4%
2023 1,100 290 1,390 Tesla Chevrolet Rivian
PEV PHEV Ford Hyundai Others

160

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA); CleanTechnica

 Country analysis: U.S. (2/3)

Number of publicly accessible charging points

2012 12.000
2013 15.000
2014 20.000
2015 28,000 3.500 31,500
2016 35,000 3.100 38,100
2017 40,000 3.400 43,400
2018 50,000 4.200 54,200
2019 64,000 13,000 77,000
2020 82,000 17,000 99,000
2021 92,000 22,000 114,000
2022 100,000 28,000 128,000
2023 140,000 43,000 183,000

Slow charger(1) Fast charger(2)

161 Notes: (1) Slow chargers include AC level 1 (≤ 3.7 kW) and AC level 2 chargers (> 3.7 kW and ≤ 22 kW) (2) Fast chargers include AC 4 3 kW chargers, DC chargers, Tesla Superchargers and inductive chargers

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA); Inside EVs

 Country analysis: U.S. (3/3)
Consumer profile: Tesla model

Willingness to purchase new Tesla models as of Q1 2023 Willingness to purchase new Tesla models as of Q1 2024
70%
67%

7% 8%

Existing Owners New Existing Owners New

162

Sourc es: Dow Jones

 Country analysis: Germany (1/3)

New electric cars registrations in thousands PEVs and PHEVs sales share by brands in 2023
2 1
2012 3
5 2 13,3%
2013 7
9 4
2014 14
12 11
2015 23
11 13 13,3%
2016 24 44,1%
25 29
2017 54
36 31
2018 67
2019 63 45 108 10,8%
2020 190 200 390
2021 360 330 690
10,6%
2022 470 360 830 8,0%
-15.7%
2023 520 180 700
Volkswagen Tesla Audi
PEV PHEV Mercedes-Benz BMW Others

163

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA); Inside EVs

 Country analysis: Germany (2/3)

Number of publicly accessible charging points

1.500 18
2012 1,518
2.400 47
2013 2,447
2.600 120
2014 2,720
2015 4,600 470 5,070
2016 5,800 630 6,430
2017 9,400 1.400 10,800
2018 17,000 2.500 19,500
2019 26,000 3.900 29,900
2020 37,000 6,200 43,200
2021 50,000 9,300 59,300
2022 71,000 15,000 86,000
2023 87,000 21,000 108,000

Slow charger(1) Fast charger(2)

164 Notes: (1) Slow chargers include AC level 1 (≤ 3.7 kW) and AC level 2 chargers (> 3.7 kW and ≤ 22 kW) (2) Fast chargers include AC 4 3 kW chargers, DC chargers, Tesla Superchargers and inductive chargers

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Country analysis: Germany (3/3)
Consumer profile: Electric vehicles

Gender Education Income Employment

11%

26%
30%

46%
50% 50%

70%
28%
89%

€2,000-4,000 p. month(1) Other Full-time employment

Male Female College / University Other €4,000-6,000 p. month(2) Other

165 Notes: (1) US$2,360-US$4,720 (Oanda exchange rate 31st Sep 2017) (2) US$4,720-7,008 (Oanda exchange rate 31st Sep 2017)

Sourc es: Early adopters of electric vehicles in Germany unveiled, as of May 2015
 Country analysis: France (1/2)

New electric cars registrations in thousands PEVs and PHEVs sales share by models in 2023
6 1
2012 6 8,0%
9 1
2013 10
6,5%
11 2
2014 13
18 6 5,3%
2015 24
23 8
2016 31 5,1%
26 12
2017 38
2018 33 15 48 4,9%

2019 45 19 64
2020 110 75 185 70,2%

2021 170 140 310

2022 210 130 340
38.2%
2023 310 160 470 Tesla Model Y Tesla Model 3 Peugeot 208 EV
PEV PHEV Dacia Spring Fiat 500 electric Others

166

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA); CleanTechnica; EV Volume

 Country analysis: France (2/2)

Number of publicly accessible charging points

800 9
2012 809
1.700 100
2013 1,800
1.700 110
2014 1,810
9.900 580
2015 10,480
2016 19,000 1.000 20,000
2017 20,000 1.000 21,000
2018 23,000 1.700 24,700
2019 28,000 2.000 30,000
2020 31,000 3.300 34,300
2021 50,000 4.500 54,500
2022 74,000 9.700 83,700
2023 98,000 20,000 118,000

Slow charger(1) Fast charger(2)

167 Notes: (1) Slow chargers include AC level 1 (≤ 3.7 kW) and AC level 2 chargers (> 3.7 kW and ≤ 22 kW) (2) Fast chargers include AC 4 3 kW chargers, DC chargers, Tesla Superchargers and inductive chargers

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Country analysis: UK (1/2)

New electric cars registrations in thousands PEVs and PHEVs sales share by models in 2023
2 1
2012 3
11,4%
3 1
2013 4
7 8
2014 15 6,9%
10 19
2015 29
10 29 5,3%
2016 39
14 35
2017 49 4,3%
16 46
2018 62
4,0%
2019 38 37 75
68,1%
2020 110 68 178
2021 190 120 310
2022 270 100 370
21.6%
2023 310 140 450 Tesla Model Y Audi Q4 e-tron Polestar 2
PEV PHEV MG4 Tesla Model 3 Others

168

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA); CleanTechnica; Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders
 Country analysis: UK (2/2)

Number of publicly accessible charging points Consumer profile: electric vehicles

2.800 36 Research commissioned by the UK Government found that the sorts of people who
2012 2,836
tend to buy electric vehicles are
2013 5,400 260 5,660
• Middle-aged
2014 7,200 520 7,720
• Males
2015 8,200 1.100 9,300
2016 11,000 • Well-educated
1.800 12,800
2017 13,000 2.200 15,200 • Affluent

2018 15,000 2.700 17,700 • Live in urban areas with households containing two or more cars and with the
ability to charge at home
2019 14,000 2.800 16,800
It also found that this socio-demographic profile of EV owners in the UK was “not
2020 17,000 3.900 20,900
likely to change significantly”.
2021 23,000 5,200 28,200
2022 30,000 6,900 36,900
2023 43,000 10,000 53,000

Slow charger(1) Fast charger(2)

169 Notes: (1) Slow chargers include AC level 1 (≤ 3.7 kW) and AC level 2 chargers (> 3.7 kW and ≤ 22 kW) (2) Fast chargers include AC 4 3 kW chargers, DC chargers, Tesla Superchargers and inductive chargers

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA); Briefing Paper on Electric vehicles and infrastructure – House of Commons Library, as of Dec 2016
 Country analysis: The Netherlands (1/2)

New electric cars registrations in thousands PEVs and PHEVs sales share by models in 2023
1 4
2012 5 7,9%
3 20
2013 23 5,0%
2014 15 3,8%
3 12
3 39
2015 42 3,4%
2016 22 3,2%
4 18
2017 9 3 11
2018 25 5 30
2019 63 7 70
2020 76 18 94
76,7%
2021 70 40 110
2022 87 50 137
53.3%
2023 130 80 210 Tesla Model Y Lynk & Co 01 PHEV Kia Niro
PEV PHEV Volvo XC40 Peugeot e-208 Others

170

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA); Inside EVs

 Country analysis: The Netherlands (2/2)

Number of publicly accessible charging points Consumer profile: electric vehicles

2.800 21
2012 2,821
5.800 21 Pro-environmental Technology
Low annual mileage
2013 5,821 attitude enthusiast
12.000 120
2014 12,120
2015 18,000 220 18,220
2016 32,000 400 32,400
2017 33,000 410 33,410 Multi-person Young to middle-
household Electric vehicle aged
2018 36,000 820 36,820
user profile
2019 46,000 1.300 47,300
2020 63,000 2.100 65,100
2021 81,000 2.600 83,600
4.300 High socio-
124,300 Parking space at
2022 120,000 economic Multi-car household
5.800 home
status
2023 140,000 145,800

Slow charger(1) Fast charger(2)

171 Notes: (1) Slow chargers include AC level 1 (≤ 3.7 kW) and AC level 2 chargers (> 3.7 kW and ≤ 22 kW) (2) Fast chargers include AC 4 3 kW chargers, DC chargers, Tesla Superchargers and inductive chargers

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA); Early adopters of electric vehicles in Germany unveiled, May 2015
 Country analysis: Belgium

New electric cars registrations in thousands Number of publicly accessible charging points
1 0
2012 1 2013 377
330 47
2013 1 2014 615
1 0 560 55
2014 2 2015 1,377
1 1
1.300 77
2015 4
1 3 2016 1,610
1.500 110
2016 9
2 7 2017 1,720
3 12 1.500 220
2017 15
4 10 2018 2,940
2018 13 2.700 240
2019 6,100 360 6,460
2019 9 9 18
2020 8,000 480 8,480
2020 15 32 47
2021 12,000 790 12,790
2021 23 48 71 1.100
2022 38 59 97 2022 23,000 24,100
2.000
99.0%
2023 93 100 193 2023 42,000 44,000

PEV PHEV Slow charger(1) Fast charger(2)

172 Notes: (1) Slow chargers include AC level 1 (≤ 3.7 kW) and AC level 2 chargers (> 3.7 kW and ≤ 22 kW) (2) Fast chargers include AC 4 3 kW chargers, DC chargers, Tesla Superchargers and inductive chargers

Sourc es: Automobile Propre; International Energy Agency (IEA); CleanTechnica

 Country analysis: Canada (1/2)

New electric cars registrations in thousands PEVs and PHEVs sales share by models in 2023
1 1
2012 2
2 2 16,0%
2013 3
3 2
2014 5
4 2
2015 7
5 6
2016 12
15,8%
2017 9 8 17
53,7%
2018 23 21 44
2019 32 19 51
2020 37 14 51 7,6%
2021 59 28 87 3.3% 3.6%

2022 91 24 115
48.7%
2023 130 41 171 Tesla Model Y Chevrolet Bolt Hyundai Kona EV
PEV PHEV Tesla Model 3 Volkswagen ID.4 Others

173

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA); Driving; Global News

 Country analysis: Canada (2/2)

Number of publicly accessible charging points in thousands

720 2
2012 722
1.200 7
2013 1,207
2.300 55
2014 2,355
2015 3,400 63 3,463
2016 3,900 140 4,040
2017 5,200 670 5,870
2018 7,100 840 7,940
2019 8,000 980 8,980
2020 11,000 2.300 13,300
2021 12,000 3,100 15,100
2022 17,000 3,900 20,900
2023 22,000 4,800 26,800

Slow charger(1) Fast charger(2)

174 Notes: (1) Slow chargers include AC level 1 (≤ 3.7 kW) and AC level 2 chargers (> 3.7 kW and ≤ 22 kW) (2) Fast chargers include AC 4 3 kW chargers, DC chargers, Tesla Superchargers and inductive chargers

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Country analysis: Sweden (1/2)

New electric cars registrations in thousands PEVs sales share by models in 2023
0 1
2012 1
0 1 14,6%
2013 2
1 3
2014 5
3 6
2015 9
9,8%
3 10
2016 13
4 16
2017 20
2018 7 22 29 57,9% 8,2%
2019 16 25 41
2020 28 66 94 5,6%

2021 57 78 135 3.9%

2022 96 67 163
4.9%
2023 110 61 171 Tesla Model Y Volvo XC40 Audi Q4 e-Tron
PEV PHEV Volkswagen ID 4 Skoda ENY AQ Others

175

Sourc es: Automobile Propre; International Energy Agency (IEA); CleanTechnica

 Country analysis: Sweden (2/2)

Number of publicly accessible charging points

2013 5

2014 1.000

2015 1.100

2016 1.700

2017 3,400 790 4,190

2018 5,500 1.000 6,500

2019 7,800 1.200 9,000

2020 9,800 1.400 11,200

2021 12,000 1.700 13,700

2022 15,000 2.600 17,600

2023 30,000 4,500 34,500

Slow charger(1) Fast charger(2)

176 Notes: (1) Slow chargers include AC level 1 (≤ 3.7 kW) and AC level 2 chargers (> 3.7 kW and ≤ 22 kW) (2) Fast chargers include AC 4 3 kW chargers, DC chargers, Tesla Superchargers and inductive chargers

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Country analysis: Japan

New electric cars registrations in thousands Number of publicly accessible charging points in thousands

2012 13 11 24 2012 1.4

2013 15 14 29 2013 1.8

2014 16 16 32 2014 8.6 2.9 11.5

2015 10 14 24 2015 16.0 6.0 22.0

2016 15 9 24 2016 17.0 7.1 24.1

2017 18 36 54 2017 22.0 7.3 29.3

2018 27 23 50 2018 22.0 7.7 29.7
2019 21 18 39 2019 23.0 7.9 30.9
2020 15 15 30 2020 22.0 7.9 29.9
2021 22 23 45 2021 21.0 8.0 29.0
2022 59 38 97 2022 21.0 8.4 29.4
44.3%
2023 88 52 140 2023 22.0 9.6 31.6

PEV PHEV Slow charger(1) Fast charger(2)

177 Notes: (1) Slow chargers include AC level 1 (≤ 3.7 kW) and AC level 2 chargers (> 3.7 kW and ≤ 22 kW) (2) Fast chargers include AC 4 3 kW chargers, DC chargers, Tesla Superchargers and inductive chargers

Sourc es: Automobile Propre; International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Country analysis: Italy (1/2)

New electric cars registrations in thousands PEVs sales share by models in 2022

2012 0
1 0 12,8%
2013 1
1 0
2014 1
2 1 9,3%
2015 2
1 1
2016 3
2 3
2017 5
5 5
8,7%
2018 10 57,8%
2019 11 7 18
5,8%
2020 33 27 60
2021 67 71 138 5,6%

2022 49 65 114
19.3%
2023 66 70 136 Fiat 500e Tesla Model Y Renault Twingo ZE
PEV PHEV Smart ForTwo Dacia Spring Others

178

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA); Inside EVs

 Country analysis: Italy (2/2)

Number of publicly accessible charging points

1.400 1
2012 1,401
1.400 6
2013 1,406
1.400 10
2014 1,410
1.700 70
2015 1,770
2.300 170
2016 2,470
2.400 390
2017 2,790
2.900 570
2018 3,470
2019 8,300 860 9,160
2020 12,000 1.200 13,200
2021 20,000 2.200 22,200
2022 31,000 6,500 37,500
2023 40,000 8,100 48,100

Slow charger(1) Fast charger(2)

179 Notes: (1) Slow chargers include AC level 1 (≤ 3.7 kW) and AC level 2 chargers (> 3.7 kW and ≤ 22 kW) (2) Fast chargers include AC 4 3 kW chargers, DC chargers, Tesla Superchargers and inductive chargers

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Country analysis: South Korea (1/2)

New electric cars registrations in thousands PEVs and PHEVs sales share by models in 2023

2012 1
2013 1 19,5%
2014 1
3 0 33,0%
2015 3
5 0
2016 5
2017 14 1 15
13,1%
2018 55 4 59
2019 33 3 36
2020 31 9 40
10,5% 12,4%
2021 72 19 91
2022 120 11 131 11,5%
0.8%
2023 120 12 132 Hyundai Porter 2 Electric Hyundai Ioniq 6 Tesla Model Y
PEV PHEV Kia EV6 Kia Bongo 3 EV Others

180

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA); Tago

 Country analysis: South Korea (2/2)

Number of publicly accessible charging points in thousands

2016 2
1 1

2017 10 3 13

2018 22 5 27

2019 37 7 44

2020 37 10 47

2021 92 15 107

2022 180 21 201

2023 180 21 201

Slow charger(1) Fast charger(2)

181 Notes: (1) Slow chargers include AC level 1 (≤ 3.7 kW) and AC level 2 chargers (> 3.7 kW and ≤ 22 kW) (2) Fast chargers include AC 4 3 kW chargers, DC chargers, Tesla Superchargers and inductive chargers

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Country analysis: Spain (1/2)

New electric cars registrations in thousands PEVs sales share by models in 2022
0 0
2012 1 8,5%
1 0
2013 1
5,9%
1 0
2014 2
1 1 5,9%
2015 2
2 2
2016 4
4,8%
4 4
2017 7
2018 6 6 12 4,6%

2019 10 7 17
2020 18 24 42 70,3%

2021 24 43 67
2022 33 49 82
48.8%
2023 57 65 122 Tesla Model 3 Tesla Model Y Citroen eC4
PEV PHEV Fiat 500 electric Kia Niro EV Others

182

Sourc es: Automobile Propre; International Energy Agency (IEA); Inside EVs
 Country analysis: Spain (2/2)

Number of publicly accessible charging points

2012 400
800 91
2013 891
800 110
2014 910
1.400 240
2015 1,640
2016 3,300 230 3,530
2017 4,300 600 4,900
2018 4,400 620 5,020
2019 4,500 1.000 5,500
2020 6,000 2.100 8,100
2021 5,600 2,600 8,200
2022 10,000 2.200 12,200
2023 19,000 6,600 25,600

Slow charger(1) Fast charger(2)

183 Notes: (1) Slow chargers include AC level 1 (≤ 3.7 kW) and AC level 2 chargers (> 3.7 kW and ≤ 22 kW) (2) Fast chargers include AC 4 3 kW chargers, DC chargers, Tesla Superchargers and inductive chargers

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Country analysis: Norway (1/3)

New electric cars registrations in thousands PEVs and PHEVs sales share by models in 2023
4 0
2012 4
2013 8 0 8
22,0%
2014 20 2 22
2015 26 8 34
2016 24 21 45
2017 33 29 62 6,1%
2018 46 27 73 56,8%
2019 60 19 79 5,7%

2020 77 29 106 4,9%

2021 110 38 148 4,5%
2022 140 16 156
-29.5%
2023 100 10 110 Tesla Model Y Skoda Enyaq Volkswagen ID.Buzz

PEV PHEV Volkswagen ID 4 Toyota BZ4X Others

184

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA); Inside EVs

 Country analysis: Norway (2/3)

Number of publicly accessible charging points

2012 3,700 58 3,758

2013 4,500 96 4,596
2014 5,200 110 5,310
2015 5,200 330 5,530
2016 7,000 500 7,500
2017 8,300 920 9,220
2018 9,300 1,200 10,500
2019 10,000 4,000 14,000
2020 12,000 5,300 17,300
2021 13,000 6,700 19,700
2022 15,000 9,100 24,100
2023 16,000 11,000 27,000

Slow charger(1) Fast charger(2)

185 Notes: (1) Slow chargers include AC level 1 (≤ 3.7 kW) and AC level 2 chargers (> 3.7 kW and ≤ 22 kW) (2) Fast chargers include AC 4 3 kW chargers, DC chargers, Tesla Superchargers and inductive chargers

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Country analysis: Norway (3/3)
Consumer profile: Electric vehicles

Age in years Education Income in thousand US$ per year(1) Region

1% 3%
20% 18%
21% 27%
35% 34%
38%

27%
34%
76% 22%
16%
28%

18-25 36-45 >55 College / University Elementary 50-69 89-107 Capital area Other
26-35 46-55 Secondary 70-88 Other Western Norway

186 Notes: (1) Transferred from Norwegian krone to US$, exchange rate: NOK-USD 0.12562 as of 30th Sep 2017 (Oanda)

Sourc es: Transportation Research Part D, Incentives for promoting Battery EV adoption in Norway, as of Jan 2016
 Country analysis: India

New electric cars registrations in thousands Number of publicly accessible charging points

2012 0 2016 25
2013 0
2014 1 2017 245
220 25
2015 0 2018 355
330 25
2016 1
2017 1 2019 355
330 25
2018 1 330 25
2020 355
1 0
2019 1
2020 3 0 3 2021 910 32 942

2021 12 0 12 2022 10,900

6.800 4.100
2022 48 0 48
71.3% 2023 10,900
2023 82 82 6.800 4.100
0
PEV PHEV Slow charger(1) Fast charger(2)

187 Notes: (1) Slow chargers include AC level 1 (≤ 3.7 kW) and AC level 2 chargers (> 3.7 kW and ≤ 22 kW) (2) Fast chargers include AC 4 3 kW chargers, DC chargers, Tesla Superchargers and inductive chargers

Sourc es: Automobile Propre; International Energy Agency (IEA)

 updated

CHAPTER 13

Special: EV sales in Europe

Since 2012, PEV sales have been steadily rising in Europe, with sales in the top eight countries amounting
to over 1,639,000 units in 2023. The leading countries for 2023 include Germany, the UK, France, the
Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Belgium, and Italy.

As for e-LCVs (including BEVs and PHEVs), France was the leading market in 2023 in terms of sales,
followed by Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, Spain, Norway, Sweden, and Italy.
 Development of PEV sales in Europe in number of cars
Development of PEV sales

Development of PEV sales in thousands

1,639

1,360

1,047

639

305
172
75 78 116
15 29 53

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Germany France Sweden Belgium

UK The Netherlands Norway Italy

189

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Number of PEVs sold in selected European countries in 2023
Country ranking (1/2)

Number of PEV cars sold in thousands

520.0

310.0 310.0

130.0
110.0 100.0 93.0
66.0

Germany UK France The Netherlands Sweden Norway Belgium Italy

190

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 EVs market share in selected European countries in 2023
Country ranking (2/2)

EVs(1) market share in 2023

93%

71%

60%
54%
46%
41%
35%

Norway Iceland Sweden Finland Denmark Belgium The Netherlands

191 Notes: (1) EVs include PEVs and PHEVs

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Top 8 countries in 2023: PEV sales in Europe (1/4)
Electric vehicles sales (1/4)

Number of PEV cars sold in Germany in thousands Number of PEV cars sold in the UK in thousands
520.0

470.0

360.0

310.0
270.0

190.0 190.0

110.0
63.0
36.0 38.0
25.0 14.0 16.0
2.2 5.2 9.1 12.0 11.0 1.6 2.6 6.7 10.0 10.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

192

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Top 8 countries in 2023: PEV sales in Europe (2/4)
Electric vehicles sales (2/4)

Number of PEV cars sold in France in thousands Number of PEV cars sold in the Netherlands in thousands
310.0

210.0

170.0

130.0
110.0
87.0
76.0 70.0
63.0
45.0
26.0 33.0
18.0 23.0 25.0
5.7 8.9 11.0 4.0 8.7
0.8 2.6 2.7 3.4

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

193

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Top 8 countries in 2023: PEV sales in Europe (3/4)
Electric vehicles sales (3/4)

Number of PEV cars sold in Sweden in thousands Number of PEV cars sold in Norway in thousands

140.0

110.0 110.0
100.0
96.0

77.0

57.0 60.0

46.0

33.0
28.0 26.0 24.0
20.0
16.0
7.1 7.9
3.0 2.9 4.4 3.9
0.3 0.4 1.2

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

194

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Top 8 countries in 2023: PEV sales in Europe (4/4)
Electric vehicles sales (4/4)

Number of PEV cars sold in Belgium in thousands Number of PEV cars sold in Italy in thousands
93.0

67.0 66.0

49.0

38.0
33.0

23.0
15.0
11.0
8.8
3.6 5.0
1.3 1.4 2.1 2.7 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.4 2.0
0.6 0.5 0.5
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

195

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Development of e-LCV sales in Europe

Development of e-LCV(1) sales in Europe in thousands

124

78

53

34
26
22
15
9 11
6 7 8

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

France UK Spain Sweden

Germany The Netherlands Norway Italy

196 Notes: (1) Including BEV and PHEV vehicles

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Number of e-LCVs sales in selected European countries in 2023
Country ranking (1/2)

Number of e-LCVs(1) sold in thousands

30.2

25.4

22.1

10.1 10.0
8.9 8.7 8.2

France Germany UK The Netherlands Spain Norway Sweden Italy

197 Notes: (1) Including BEV and PHEV vehicles

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 e-LCVs market share in selected European countries in 2023
Country ranking (2/2)

e-LCVs(1) market share as % of total sales in Europe in 2023

36%

20%
17%
15%

7% 7%

France Germany UK The Netherlands Spain Other Europe

198 Notes: (1) Including BEV and PHEV vehicle

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Top 8 countries in 2023: e-LCV sales in Europe (1/4)

Number of e-LCVs(1) sold in France in thousands Number of e-LCVs(1) sold in Germany in thousands
30.2

25.4

18.8

16.5
13.3
12.8

9.2 9.0
8.2 8.1
6.7
6.0 6.0
5.1 4.9 5.5 4.5
4.5
3.6
2.4
1.0 0.6 0.7 1.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

199 Notes: (1) Including BEV and PHEV vehicles

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Top 8 countries in 2023: e-LCV sales in Europe (2/4)

Number of e-LCVs(1) sold in the UK in thousands Number of e-LCVs(1) sold in the Netherlands in thousands
22.1

17.4

13.2
10.1

6.3 5.0

3.7 3.3

1.7 1.4 1.7

1.1 1.1 1.4 1.0
0.4 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.7
0.2

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

200 Notes: (1) Including BEV and PHEV vehicles

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Top 8 countries in 2023: e-LCV sales in Europe (3/4)

Number of e-LCVs(1) sold in Spain in thousands Number of e-LCVs(1) sold in Norway in thousands

10.0

8.9

7.2

3.6

2.3 2.6
1.8 1.9 2.0 1.8 2.0
1.7

0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.8

0.4 0.5 0.3 0.6
0.2 0.1 0.1

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

201 Notes: (1) Including BEV and PHEV vehicles

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Top 8 countries in 2023: e-LCV sales in Europe (4/4)

Number of e-LCVs(1) sold in Sweden in thousands Number of e-LCVs(1) sold in Italy in thousands

8.7
8.2

5.0
4.7

3.5

2.6
2.1
1.4 1.3
1.0
0.8 0.8 0.6
0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5
0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3
0.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

202 Notes: (1) Including BEV and PHEV vehicles

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

CHAPTER 14

Special: EV sales in Asia

Mainland China is by far the market leader, not only in Asia but also worldwide. PEV sales amounted to
over 5,400,000 units in 2023—nearly 145% more than the combined PEV sales in Europe. South Korea,
Japan, and India are the other leading markets in Asia.

As for e-LCVs, Mainland China and South Korea account for a 99% share in the Asian market, with
combined sales of over 281,000 units in 2023.
 Development of PEV sales in Asia in number of cars

Development of PEV sales in Asia in thousands

5,690

4,627

2,806

903 885 969

503
164 280
23 31 67

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Mainland China South Korea Japan India

204

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Number of PEVs sold in selected Asian countries in 2023
Country ranking (1/2)

Number of PEVs sold in thousands

Mainland China 5,400

South Korea 120

Japan 88

India 82

205

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 EVs market share in selected Asian countries in 2023
Country ranking (2/2)

EVs(1) market share in 2023

Mainland China 38.0%

Israel 19.0%

South Korea 7.9%

Japan 3.6%

India 2.0%

206 Notes: (1) EVs include BEVs and PHEVs

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Top 4 countries in 2023: PEV sales in Asia (1/2)
Electric vehicles sales (1/2)

Number of PEV cars sold in Mainland China in thousands Number of PEV cars sold in South Korea in thousands
5,400.0

4,400.0

2,700.0
120.0 120.0

72.0
55.0
820.0 830.0 920.0
33.0 31.0
470.0
260.0 14.0
9.6 15.0 49.0 150.0 0.5 0.6 1.3 3.1 4.7

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

207

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Top 4 countries in 2023: PEV sales in Asia (2/2)
Electric vehicles sales (2/2)

Number of PEV cars sold in Japan in thousands Number of PEV cars sold in India in thousands
88.0

82.0

59.0

48.0

27.0
21.0 22.0
18.0
15.0 16.0 15.0 15.0
13.0 12.0
10.0
3.1
0.2 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

208

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Development of e-LCV sales in Asia

Development of e-LCV(1) sales in thousands

284

209

101

68
55
43
29
16 11
3 3 1
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Mainland China South Korea(2) Japan

209 Notes: (1) Including BEV and PHEV vehicles (2) Data available only for 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Mainland China dominates the Asian e-LCV market
Country ranking

Number of e-LCVs(1) sold in thousands in 2023 e-LCVs(1) market share as % of total sales in Asia in 2023
240.0 84%

41.0 14%

2.8 1%

Mainland China South Korea Japan Mainland China South Korea Japan

210 Notes: (1) Including BEV and PHEV vehicles

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

 Top 2 countries in 2023: e-LCV sales in Asia

Number of e-LCVs(1) sold in Mainland China in thousands Number of e-LCVs(1) sold in South Korea(2) in thousands
240.00

171.50

68.00 71.16
54.00
36.00 41.00
27.03 26.00 29.00
15.00 11.00 15.00
0.67 0.75 0.48 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.02 0.01 n.a. 0.30 1.50
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

211 Notes: (1) Including BEV and PHEV vehicles (2) Data for 2011-2014, 2017 not available

Sourc es: International Energy Agency (IEA)

CHAPTER 15

Appendix
 Authors

Julia Hoffmann Dev Mehta Contact

Chief of Staff Founder and Director, AgileIntel U.S. support@statista.com
Research EU: eu.support@statista.com
j.hoffmann@statista.com

Julia Hoffmann works as Chief of Staff at Statista, Dev Mehta has over 12 years of experience working
where she is responsible for department-wide for market research, legal, and consulting companies.
projects. Before joining Statista, she worked in He has worked in various sectors such as defense,
startups, venture capital and the insurance industry, digital marketing, fintech, insurance, and consumer
always striving to foster efficiency through innovation goods.
and digitalization.
Dev Mehta completed his Postgraduate Diploma,
Julia Hoffmann holds a master’s degree in Health majoring in Business Management at Massey
Sciences from HAW Hamburg and a specialization in University, New Zealand, and has a Master of Arts in
Strategic Management and Innovation from Marketing Management from Middlesex University,
Copenhagen Business School. London.

213 www.statista.com
 Glossary (1/2)

Term Abbreviation Explanation

Autonomous, connected, electric, shared ACES The four key technological trends for future mobility.

A business model in which the battery of an EV can be rented from a service provider or swapped with another battery when
Battery-as-a-Service BaaS
it runs out of charge.

Battery EV BEV An all-electric vehicle that has an electric motor and a battery but no internal-combustion engine.

Electric scooters that have self-locking mechanisms and a GPS tracking facility with an average top speed of around 15mph.
Dockless e-scooters -
These are mainly used by bike-sharing companies such as Bird, Lime, and Spin.

Domain control units DCU A system that provides the key software functionality for a vehicle domain.

Electronic control units ECU An automotive embedded system that controls one or more of the vehicle's electrical systems or subsystems.

A vehicle which uses one or more electric motors for propulsion. Includes cars, scooters, buses, trucks, motorcycles, and
Electric vehicle EV
boats. This term includes all-electric vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles.
A vehicle powered by an ICE in combination with one or more electric motors that use energy stored in batteries. These are
Hybrid EV HEV
continually recharged with power from the ICE and regenerative braking.
An engine in which the burning of fuels occurs in a confined space called a combustion chamber. Usually run with
Internal combustion engine ICE
gasoline/petrol or diesel.

Light commercial vehicles LCV A commercial carrier vehicle with a gross vehicle weight of no more than 3.5 metric tons.

214
 Glossary (2/2)

Term Abbreviation Explanation

A rechargeable battery which powers itself through the oxidation of lithium at the anode, and reduction of oxygen at the
Lithium-air battery Li-air battery
cathode.

Lithium-ion battery Li-ion battery A rechargeable battery made of lightweight lithium and carbon, commonly used in consumer electronics and electric vehicles.

A rechargeable battery that replaces the liquid or polymer electrolyte found in current lithium-ion batteries with sulphur. They
Lithium-sulphur battery Li-S battery
have more capacity than li-ion batteries.
An electric vehicle that can be externally charged and generally includes all-electric vehicles as well as plug-in hybrids. In this
Plug-in EV PEV
report we use the term for all-electric vehicles to differentiate them from plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.
A vehicle that can be powered either by an ICE or an electric motor. In contrast to normal hybrid EVs, they can It can be
Plug-in Hybrid EV PHEV
charged externally.

Solid-state batteries - A rechargeable battery that replaces the liquid or polymer electrolyte found in current lithium-ion batteries with a solid.

Vespa-like e-scooters look like traditional scooters but are run on batteries and generally have a higher range than the
Vespa-like e-scooters -
dockless ones. They are currently used mostly in Asia.

215
 STATISTA CONSUMER INSIGHTS

Understand what drives

consumers
Gain a better understanding of consumers, brands, and markets.
With the Statista Consumer Insights, you get access to
streamlined market research tools and all results of the exclusive
Statista surveys. Leverage consumer insights to make data-driven
decisions and unlock new growth opportunities.

• Identify and understand your core audiences

• Track brand KPIs
+
• Analyze competitive landscapes
• Monitor consumer trends globally

Go to Consumer Insights
2,000,000+ 56 3.5bn+ 15,000+ 500+
Find out more on:
Go to Consumer Insights statista.com/global-consumer-survey
interviews countries & consumers international topics &
territories represented brands industries

216
 STATISTA MARKET INSIGHTS

Market Insights – market data,

forecasts, and qualitative insights
Gain a better understanding of markets across 190+ geographical entities – on
a global, regional, country, and/or state level. Access our data via web
interface, download (XLS, PDF, PPT), or reports. Benefit from our 48-hour
customer service guarantee.

• 10 sectors: advertising & media, consumers, countries, digital sector,

finance, health, industrial sector, mobility, and technology
• 1,000+ markets, e.g., FinTech, Food, or Robotics
• KPIs, e.g., revenue, market shares, prices, and volume
• Features: Compare countries & regions, change currencies, select
visualizations, and/or customize downloads
• Use cases: sales planning, investment decision support, resource
allocation, and portfolio management

10 190+ 1,000+ 400+

Go to Market Insights
Find out more on: sectors geographical markets reports
Go to Market Insights https://www.statista.com/outlook/
entities

217