Communication Reports

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Longitudinal Associations Between Social Media

Use and Mental Health Outcomes in Sample of
Irish Youth: A Brief Report

Christopher J. Ferguson

To cite this article: Christopher J. Ferguson (2024) Longitudinal Associations Between

Social Media Use and Mental Health Outcomes in Sample of Irish Youth: A Brief Report,
Communication Reports, 37:1, 75-86, DOI: 10.1080/08934215.2023.2298948

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Communication Reports
Vol. 37, No. 1, 2024, pp. 75–86

Longitudinal Associations Between

Social Media Use and Mental Health
Outcomes in Sample of Irish Youth:
A Brief Report
Christopher J. Ferguson

Questions remain over whether internet and social media use are associated with
mental health outcomes in youth. Data has remained inconsistent in previous long­
itudinal studies. The current study sought to extend this work with a longitudinal
study involving Irish youth (N = 8,500) assessed initially at age 9 (time 1; T1), then
again at ages 13 (time 2; T2) and 17/18 (time 3; T3). Analyses were preregistered.
Early internet use (T1) and social media use (T2) were assessed along with controls
for emotional problems at T1 and T2, language problems, parental conflict, popu­
larity, and happiness at T1. Outcomes included emotional problems, peer problems,
and emotional stability at T3. Results indicated that early internet use and social
media use were not associated with later mental health problems when controlling
for other factors. These results do not support the belief that social media use is
a predictor of later mental health problems in youth.

Keywords: social media; mental health; adolescents; moral panic

The issue of whether social media use predicts youth mental illness has been a topic of
significant debate for the last decade. In the U.S., China, and other countries, politi­
cians have debated what laws or legislation might be enacted to reduce youth access to
social media. The topic has raised concern, particularly regarding issues such as

Correspondence to: Christopher J. Ferguson Department of Psychology, Stetson University, 421 N. Woodland
Blvd, DeLand, FL 32729, USA. E-mail: CJFerguson1111@aol.com

Christopher J. Ferguson is professor of psychology at Stetson University. He has been researching media
impacts on youth for over two decades. He lives in Orlando with his wife and son.

ISSN 0893-4215 (print)/ISSN 1745-1043 (online) © 2024 Western States Communication Association
DOI: 10.1080/08934215.2023.2298948
76 C. J. Ferguson
emotional problems, emotional stability, and peer problems. The current study exam­
ined these issues with a sample of youth in Ireland.

Social Media Use and Mental Health Among Youth

Increases in emotional problems (e.g., mental health symptoms, such as depression
and anxiety), emotional stability (e.g., long-term traits, mainly neuroticism), and
peer problems (e.g., loneliness, isolation) among teens have been attributed to
changes in technology use among youth beginning roughly from the year 2010
and on (Twenge et al., 2018). Twenge et al. (2018) argued that the adoption of
social media by youth created a media environment that both isolated youth from
real-life socialization and exposed teens to greater adverse communication online,
including bullying. It is thought that social media use causes teens to socialize less in
real life, leading to peer problems and subsequent neuroticism, depression, and
anxiety. Because this adoption of social media occurred contemporaneously with
a rise in self-reported emotional and peer problems, it has been considered eviden­
tiary of a causal relationship.
However, determining causality from co-occurring societal phenomena can be
difficult, raising the risk of ecological fallacies. Other studies, for instance, have failed
to find evidence that changes in youth technology use, as indicated by social media,
are correlated with changes in youth mental health (e.g., Vuorre et al., 2021). Many
other changes have also occurred in U.S. society, such as changes in parenting
practices, rising income inequality, changes in the K12 education system emphasiz­
ing oppression in society (Kaufman & Goldberg, 2023), and increased fatherlessness,
not to mention an increased rate of suicide among parenting age adults for con­
temporary youth. In fact, adult suicides are far higher and have grown more quickly
than have youth suicides (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2023). Failing
to consider other potential historical factors that can influence various aspects of
youth mental health may cause misattribution related to contemporary technology
changes as a cause of youth mental health trends.
Evidence from individual research studies regarding the impact of social media on
mental health has been equivocal and, at times, acrimonious. Interestingly, many of
the debates focus on different interpretations of results from the exact same datasets,
such as Monitoring the Future (e.g., Patrick et al., 2023) or the Millennium Cohort
Study (Castañeda et al., 2021). In essence, these debates tend to focus on the
interpretation of very small effect sizes, typically below r = .10, which may become
“statistically significant” in samples of tens or hundreds of thousands of participants.
Some authors argue that these effect sizes are meaningful (e.g., Twenge & Farley,
2021), whereas others argue that they are trivial and differ little from the impact of
other meaningless correlations, such as eating potatoes or wearing eyeglasses on
suicide (e.g., Orben & Przybylski, 2019).
Reviews of this data have likewise returned mixed results. A recent umbrella
review found that most meta-analyses of the effects of social media on mental health
 Communication Reports 77
concluded that the evidence was weak and inconsistent, though there was not perfect
agreement among the reviews (Valkenburg et al., 2022). For instance, one meta-
analysis concluded that the effects were small, with significant heterogeneity, which
might indicate significant moderators in the relationship between social media and
mental health (Ivie et al., 2020). Another review (Odgers & Jensen, 2020) noted that,
particularly from preregistered studies, evidence tended to be weak and unlikely to
be of clinical significance. As such, preregistered studies may be of particular value in
understanding the relationship between social media use and youth mental health.

The Current Study

At present, uncertainty remains regarding whether social media impacts youth
mental health, and the employment of more rigorous studies could help answer
these questions. One way of providing better evidence is through a process of
preregistration, by which study hypotheses and data-analysis plans are published
publicly in advance (Odgers & Jensen, 2020). As such, the current study sought to
add to this evidence base by using a preexisting dataset (i.e., Growing Up in Ireland;
McNamara et al., 2020) and preregistering analyses. This preregistration is available
here: https://aspredicted.org/13S_4F2. This study was designed to test the association
between early internet or social media use and mental health, controlling for relevant
factors. Control variables were selected based on several criteria. First, as early
problems can predict later problems, measures related to the child’s early emotional
and social functioning as well as general happiness serve as controls for baseline
functioning (Gao et al., 2020). Issues such as language delays could impact peer
relations (Horwitz et al., 2003) and family conflict may also relate to later emotional
problems (David et al., 1996). Furthermore, sex and age are standard demographic
control variables. Taken together, this study tested the following hypothesis:
H: Internet use at age 9 and social media use at age 13 will predict emotional problems,
peer problems, and emotional stability at age 17/18, controlling for age, sex, language
problems, popularity, happiness, parent conflict, and parent- and teacher-rated emo­
tional problems at age 9 and parent-rated emotional problems at age 13.

Method
Data were taken from the Growing Up in Ireland longitudinal study of youth
(McNamara et al., 2020). This longitudinal study began examining a large sample
of youth in 2008 when the youth were aged 9 and has continued to the present day
(at the time of publication).

Participants
Participants were 8,500 youth aged 9 at time 1 (T1), 13 at time 2 (T2), and between
17 and 18 at time 3 (T3). At wave 3, 6,309 participants were available. Only
78 C. J. Ferguson
participants with data from all three waves were included. There were slightly more
female (51.4%) than male (48.6%) youth in the sample. 94.8% of youth were citizens
of Ireland and 87% were Roman Catholic (other Christian were 5.8%, and “other”
was 1.2%, with the remainder non-reporting).

Materials
All materials were included in the Growing Up in Ireland longitudinal surveys.

Main Predictor Measures

Internet use and social media use were considered as predictors. The difference in
the predictors likely reflects both changes in technology and related concerns as
internet technology evolved over time. Social media gradually became prevalent in
the 2000s. Data collection for the first wave occurred in 2007/2008, before a focus on
social media had become more prevalent. The second wave of assessments occurred
in 2011/2012, as social media concerns began to emerge. As such, the two predictors
differed slightly in focus, but reflect changes in technology and social media use
across time, making each interesting and valuable to consider.
Internet Use. At age 9 (T1), internet use was calculated from combined items for
whether the child self-reported using chatrooms, emailing, instant messaging, and
surfing the internet for fun (“Do you have a computer at home. What do you use it
for?;” α = .58). Participants were asked (yes/no) about using computers for these
activities over the past week.
Social Media Use. At age 13 (T2), social media was assessed by child self-report of
using social media sites such as Facebook or Twitter. Participants were asked to
report whether they used the internet for these social media sites on a typical day.
This was a single question: “What do you use the internet for? Personal webpage
(Facebook, Bebo, Twitter, etc.)/instant messaging/emailing.”

Main Outcome Measures

Emotional and Peer Problems. Emotional problems and peer problems at age 17/
18 (T3) were both assessed with items from the Strengths and Difficulties Question­
naire (Goodman, 1997). This questionnaire was rated by parents indicating youth
problem areas (e.g., “Restless, overactive, cannot stay still for long;” “Often loses
temper”) on a three-point Likert scale (1 = not true, 3 = certainly true). The Strengths
and Difficulties (SDQ) Questionnaire was designed to help clinicians and educators
understand both different competency realms in which youth may be struggling, but
also where youth may be doing well (e.g., “Has at least one good friend”).
Emotional Stability. T3 emotional stability was taken from the Ten Item Personality
Inventory (TIPI; Gosling et al., 2003), which measures the Big-5 personality traits (i.e.,
openness, agreeableness, extraversion, neuroticism, conscientiousness) using a 7-point
scale (1 = strongly disagree, 7 = strongly agree). Emotional stability corresponds to what is
 Communication Reports 79
often called neuroticism. This concept has been studied for decades as part of the Big-5
theory of personality (Goldberg, 1992; e.g., “Anxious, easily upset”), and neuroticism has
been associated with a variety of life problems, stress, and mental disorders such as
anxiety and depression (Kendler, 1993). It is worth noting that these measures have
a track record of construct and predictive validity and use in clinical assessments. This
was included as a full-scale score in the database.
There were small to moderate correlations between the outcome variables. T3
Emotional Problems were correlated with T3 Peer Problems (r = .248, p < .001) and
T3 Emotional Stability (r = -.462, p < .001). T3 Peer Problems were correlated with
T3 Emotional Stability (r = -.340, p < .001).

Control Variables
Control variables included the youth’s sex (coded as 1 = male, 2 = female), age, T1 parent-
and teacher-rated SDQ emotional problems, and T2 parent-rated emotional problems.
Other T1 control variables included language delays, family conflict, happiness, and
popularity. Of note, most of these variables in the dataset, with the exception of language
delays, were included as full-scale scores, not individual items. As such, reliability data
could not be calculated.
Parent- and Teacher-Rated Emotional Problems. The SDQ, as described above,
was used to assess teacher and parent related emotional problems at T1 (parent and
teacher) and T2 (parent).
Language Delays. Language delays were measured using a 9-item scale developed
as part of this database. Sample items include, “speech not clear to family,” “stutters,”
and “difficulty finding words,” which were measured on a yes/no scale (α = .66).
Family Conflict. Family conflict was measured using the 30-item scale (Pianta,
1992). Questions were presented on a 5-point Likert scale (1 = definitely does not
apply, 5 = definitely applies). The conflict subscale of 12 items includes sample items
such as “dealing with child drains energy” and “feels I treat him/her unfairly.”
Happiness and Popularity. Happiness and popularity were measured using sub­
scales of the Piers-Harris Self-Concept Scale (Piers & Herzberg, 2007). The Piers-
Harris is a 60-item inventory presented in a yes/no response format. Sample items
include, “I am a happy person” and “people pick on me.”

Procedures
All data were collected as part of the Growing Up in Ireland longitudinal study (McNamara
et al., 2020). These data were archived for this project and can be supplied upon request.
Separate Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regressions were performed for each of the T3
outcomes. Pairwise deletion was used for missing data. VIFs indicated an absence of
collinearity issues with the highest VIFs below 1.5. Although it was not preregistered,
a threshold of r = .10 was used as a smallest effect size of interest (SESOI), as effect sizes
below that point are difficult to distinguish from methodological noise, even if they are
statistically significant (Ferguson & Heene, 2021).
80 C. J. Ferguson
Results
Means and standard deviations for all measures are reported in Table 1. Intercorre­
lations between measures are included in Table 2. Standardized regressions for all
results are presented in Table 3.

Emotional Problems
The overall model for T3 emotional problems was significant (R = .407, R2adj = .163,
F[11, 3445] = 62.01, p < .001). Of the predictor variables, youth female sex (β = .179,
p < .001), and T2 parent-rated emotional problems (β = .264, p < .001) were the only
predictors of T3 emotional problems. Neither T1 internet use nor T2 social media
use predicted T3 emotional problems.

Peer Problems
The overall model for T3 peer problems was significant (R = .326, R2adj = .104, F[11,
5139] = 55.62, p < .001). Of the predictor variables, T1 popularity (β = -.110, p < .001)
and T2 parent-rated emotional problems (β = .167, p < .001) were the only predictors
of T3 peer problems. Neither T1 internet use nor T2 social media use predicted T3
peer problems.

Table 1 Means and Standard Deviations for Variables

Time Variable M SD

T1 Early language problems .014 .061

T1 Internet use 1.784 .217
T1 Popularity 8.735 2.366
T1 Happiness 8.776 1.582
T1 SDQ emotional 2.013 1.973
T1 Caregiver conflict 21.760 8.500
T1 Teacher SDQ emotional 1.284 1.829
T2 Parent SDQ emotional 1.782 1.934
T2 Social media use 1.181 .385
T3 Parent SDQ emotional 1.767 1.948
T3 Peer problems 1.359 1.471
T3 Emotional stability 5.322 1.410
Note. T1 = time 1; T2 = time 2; T3 = time 3; SDQ = strengths difficulties questionnaire.
Table 2 Correlations Between Variables
Variable 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1. Early language problems – .011 -.071 .053 .103* .085 .062 .098 .052 .035 .110* -.063
2. Internet – -.038 -.008 -.028 -.063 .005 -.023 .134* -.030 -.014 .043
3. Popularity – .521* -.138* -.121* -.146* -.121* -.030 -.085 -.169* .138*
4. Happiness – -.087 -.140* -.078 -.094 .008 -.034 -.109* -.091
5. SDQ emotional – .354* .233* .494* .001 .246* .198* -.303*
6. Caregiver conflict – .095 .302* -.046 .153* .185* -.287*
7. Teacher SDQ emotional – .187* .032 .144* .146* -.156*
8. T2 Parent SDQ emotional – -.035 .344* .295* .421*
9. T2 Social media use – -.035 .031 .047
10. T3 Parent SDQ emotional – .248* -.462*
11. T3 Peer problems – -.340
12. Emotional stability –
*p < .01.
Communication Reports 81
82 C. J. Ferguson
Table 3 Standardized Regression Coefficients for All Regression Results
β

Time Predictor Emotional Problems Peer Problems Emotional Stability

Female sex .179* (.697, .062) -.012 (-.037, .039) -.141* (-.397, .035)
Age -.002 (-.037, .239) -.009 (-.102, .153) .006 (.067, .135)
T1 Early language problems .008 (.266, .503) .066 (1.585, .322) -.019 (-.433, .285)
T1 Popularity -.044 (-.036, .015) -.110* (-.068, .010) .068 (.040, .009)
T1 Happiness .023 (.028, .023) -.009 (-.009, .014) .000 (.000, .013)
T1 Parent SDQ emotional .070 (.069, .019) .043 (.032, .012) -.061 (-.044, .010)
T1 Family conflict .035 (.008, .004) .093 (.016, .002) -.153* (-.025, .002)
T1 Teacher SDQ emotional .064 (.069, .017) .074 (.060, .011) -.055 (-.042, .010)
T2 Parent SDQ emotional .264* (.266, .018) .179* (.127, .012) -.309* (-.225, .010)
T1 Internet use -.021 (-.192, .141) -.013 (.086, .090) .026 (.170, .080)
T2 Social media use -.009 (-.047, 080) .032 (.122, .051) .017 (.064, .045)

Note. T1 = time 1; T2 = time 2; SDQ = strengths difficulties questionnaire. Unstandardized regression weights
and standard error in parentheses.
* p< .05.

Emotional Stability
The overall model for T3 emotional stability was significant (R = .489, R2adj = .237, F
[11, 5137] = 146.40, p < .001). Of the predictor variables, youth female sex (β = -.141,
p < .001), T1 family conflict (β = -.153, p < .001), and T2 parent-rated emotional
problems (β = -.309, p < .001) were the only predictors of T3 emotional stability.
Neither T1 internet use nor T2 social media use predicted T3 emotional stability.

Resiliency Testing
The multiple regressions were tested for resiliency by switching to hierarchical regressions
and imputing the missing data. Neither adjustment changed the outcomes substantially
for internet or social media use, suggesting that these results were robust to the specific
regression method used. Missing data was modest for T3 emotional stability and T3 peer
problems but higher for T3 emotional problems. Adjusting for missing data using replace
with mean procedures did not influence the study results.

Mini Meta-Analysis
The effect sizes for the T1 internet and T2 social media relationships with each
outcome were subjected to a mini random effects meta-analysis. Results indicated
that the overall effect size was equivalent to β = -.009 and was non-significant (p
= .336). These results do not support the hypothesis that internet or social media use
is associated with long-term mental health or peer problems among youth.
 Communication Reports 83
Discussion
The issue of whether social media impacts mental health remains a topic of con­
siderable contention in the published literature, both among policy makers and for
parents. Given the lack of consensus on this issue, the current study sought to add to
the evidence base by conducting preregistered analyses regarding the impact of social
media on mental health outcomes among Irish youth. Overall, evidence did not
support a link between early internet or social media use and later mental health.
The main findings indicated that internet use at age 9 and social media use at age
13 were not associated with emotional problems, peer problems, or emotional
stability (i.e., neuroticism) at age 17/18. As such, these results do not support the
belief that social media use, at least in regard to general use or time spent on social
media, is associated with negative outcomes for youth. As such, current concerns
regarding the internet and social media use may reflect moral panics over technology
or media use that have been exhibited in the past, such as with comic books, rock
music, or video games, more than an actual public health crisis.
This does not necessarily mean that there are no concerns about social media use.
For instance, even if time spent on social media were not inherently worrisome, how
people choose to use social media could be associated with negative outcomes. Some
research indicates that different ways of using social media may be associated with
both positive (e.g., Reinecke & Trepte, 2014) and negative (e.g., Davila et al., 2012)
outcomes. Thus, understanding interactions between social media and user inten­
tions and motivations may be more fruitful than examining only time spent on social
media.
The findings have implications for policy insofar as policies that attempt to
globally restrict youth access to social media may have little actual impact on
youth wellbeing. This may be of concern as a focus on technology as harmful
often distracts the public from more fruitful avenues toward reducing public health
concerns. Given that suicide appears to follow similar patterns across most age
groups (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2023), a hyperfocus on teens
may have mistakenly created a false impression that teen suicide was linked to
technology used by teens rather than following a broader societal pattern experi­
enced across age groups.
Regarding actual predictors of mental health concerns in the current sample, the
two most significant predictors were female sex and prior mental health concerns.
This suggests that mental health concerns may be at least fairly stable in youth and
early intervention may be more fruitful than focusing on technology use. Given that
parent ratings were particularly reliable, this finding may indicate that parents are
fairly attuned to their youths’ mental health. Instead, resources should be devoted
toward early identification of and intervention with at-risk children. Family conflict
and peer unpopularity were also related to some outcomes, and these may also be
important areas to consider clinically with youth. Mental health problems also
appear to be slightly higher among female youth.
84 C. J. Ferguson
The current study aligns with other studies that have failed to find that social
media use is a predictor of mental health outcomes (e.g., Heffer et al., 2019; Orben &
Przybylski, 2019). Most debates in this area appear to focus on the interpretation of
relatively small effect sizes. For policy makers, it is suggested that a moratorium on
legislation seeking to regulate youth social media use be considered until research
becomes clearer. Particularly given free speech concerns regarding governments
restricting communication access in the name of preventing “harm,” the risks of
such policies at this juncture outweigh the evidence for appreciable benefits.

Limitations and Conclusion

As with all studies, this longitudinal analysis has limitations that bear discussion.
First, all data are correlational. Though longitudinal studies can establish time
patterns, causal attributions can still not be made. Second, internet and social
media use data were self-reported, and some analyses suggest that self-report data
are less reliable than other forms of data, such as time diaries or application
recordings (Orben & Przybylski, 2019). Third, the current analysis only considers
overall use of social media, not the specific activities that youth engaged in while on
social media. It is possible that more idiosyncratic effects might be noted when
specific activities are taken into account.
The current data were unable to support the belief that internet and social media
use are associated with later mental health problems in youth. It is recommended
that future dialogue on this issue be more cautious in noting the equivocal nature of
this body of research. It is hoped that the current study will productively add to
dialogs on this issue.

Disclosure Statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

ORCID
Christopher J. Ferguson http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0986-7519

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