“DETECTION AND PREDICTION OF DISEASE

OUTBREAKS”

An
Industrial Training Report

Submitted

in partial fulfillment

for the award of the degree of

Bachelor of Technology in Computer Science and Engineering

2023-2024

Submitted to: Submitted by:

Ms. Rama Bhardwaj Prince Yadav
Assistant Professor 20EVJCS076
Computer Science & Engineering B. Tech VII Sem

===================================================================================================

DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER SCIENCE ENGINEERING

VIVEKANANDA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
SISYAWAS, SECTOR-36, NRI ROAD, JAGATPURA, JAIPUR, RAJASTHAN
=================================================================================================
 2023-2024
VIVEKANANDA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
(Approved by AICTE, New Delhi | Affiliated to RTU Kota, Rajasthan)

Candidates Declaration

It is hereby declared that the work, which is being presented in the Practical Training Seminar
Report titled “DETECTION AND PREDICTION OF DISEASE OUTBREAKS” in partial
fulfillment of the award of Bachelor of Technology in Computer Science Engineering and
submitted in the department of Computer Science Engineering of Vivekananda Institute of
Technology, Jaipur is an authentic record of the work under the supervision and valuable
guidance of Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering.

The matter presented in the report embodies the result of the studies carried out by the student
and has not been submitted for the award of any other degree in this or any other institute.

Prince Yadav Ms. Rama Bhardwaj

20EVJCS076 Seminar Coordinator
Department Of CSE

Dr. Surendra Yadav

Head of The Department
Department of Computer Science Engineering
Vivekananda Institute of Technology, Jaipur

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 Acknowledgement
…What makes us who we are should be glorified, personified and sung unto the stars!!
―Muse, Enigmatic Evolution
I would like to express my special thanks and gratitude to my guide, Dr. Surendra
Yadav(HOD) , Ms. Rama Bhardwaj, Assistant Professor, Computer Science Engineering for
providing me a golden opportunity to work and prepare a project report on the topic
“DETECTION AND PREDICTION OF DISEASE OUTBREAKS” and for paving the path towards
the completion of this report by his esteemed guidance and enlightenment. I would also like to
extend my sincere regards to Mr. Dhiraj Singh, my mentor and Head of the Department,
Computer Science Engineering and all the faculty members in the department for providing us
their kind encouragement and cooperation in strengthening our knowledge in this field and for
providing me an opportunity to work on my project.

- Prince Yadav

ii
 Dedicated to

my parents who taught me the art of living

and

my teachers who taught me the art of exploration

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 Abstract
Deep learning (DL) is becoming a fast-growing field in the medical domain and it helps in
the timely detection of any infectious disease (IDs) and is essential to the management of
diseases and the prediction of future occurrences. Many scientists and scholars have
implemented DL techniques for the detection and prediction of pandemics, IDs and other
healthcare-related purposes, these outcomes are with various limitations and research gaps.
For the purpose of achieving an accurate, efficient and less complicated DL-based system
for the detection and prediction of pandemics, therefore, this study carried out a systematic
literature review (SLR) on the detection and prediction of pandemics using DL techniques.
The survey is anchored by four objectives and a state-of-the-art review of forty-five papers
out of seven hundred and ninety papers retrieved from different scholarly databases was
carried out in this study to analyze and evaluate the trend of DL techniques application areas
in the detection and prediction of pandemics. This study used various tables and graphs to
analyze the extracted related articles from various online scholarly repositories and the
analysis showed that DL techniques have a good tool in pandemic detection and prediction.
Scopus and Web of Science repositories are given attention in this current because they
contain suitable scientific findings in the subject area. Finally, the state-of-the-art review
presents forty-four (44) studies of various DL technique performances. The challenges
identified from the literature include the low performance of the model due to computational
complexities, improper labeling and the absence of a high-quality dataset among others. This
survey suggests possible solutions such as the development of improved DL-based
techniques or the reduction of the output layer of DL-based architecture for the detection
and prediction of pandemic-prone diseases as future considerations.

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Certificate

v
LIST OF FIGURES

Figure No. Name of the figure

Fig: 1 data provided by Medisys

Fig: 2 components of RSS provided by Medisys.

Fig: 3 Disease data

Fig: 4 Trend of the detection and prediction of pandemic publications

Fig: 5 Most frequent words

Fig: 6 Ten most cited countries

Fig: 7 Comparison using the three AI-based techniques used in pandemic

Fig: 8 Trends in the number of publications using author country as a search

between January 2013 to September 2023

Fig: 9 Statistical Chat of Three AI-based techniques for COVID-19 Pandemic

Detection and Prediction Over the Period of 10 Years

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 Content

Candidates Declaration i
Acknowledgement ii
Abstract iii
Certificate v
Name of the figure vii

Chapter No. Chapter Name Page no.

Chapter 1 Introduction and Objective of Project 1--3
1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 Objective 2

Chapter 2 The Role of Artificial Intelligence 4-10

Chapter 3 Materials 11-24

3.1 Inclusion and Exclusion Criteria 11

3.2 Selection Process and Data Extract 12

3.3 Strategy for Data Synthesis 14

3.4 Critical Appraisal 16

Chapter 4 Revolutionizing Public Health 25-27

4.1 Timely Response 27

4.2 Reduced Disease Spread 27

4.3 Resource Allocation 28

4.4 Data Integration 29

4.5 Machine Learning and AI. 30

4.6 Environmental Monitoring. 31

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 4.6 Telemedicine and Remote Monitoring 32
4.7 Public Awareness. 32
4.8 Advantages 32

Chapter 5 Results and analysis 33

5.1 General outcome of the literature search 33

5.2 Outcome of our findings based on research questions34

Chapter 6 Conclusion and future consideration 35

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 Chapter: 1
Introduction and Objective of Project

1.1 Introduction:-

Python is a high-level, interpreted, general-purpose programming language. Its design

philosophy emphasizes code readability with the use of significant indentation.

Python is dynamically-typed and garbage-collected. It supports multiple programming

paradigms, including structured (particularly procedural), object oriented and functional
programming. It is often described as a "batteries included" language due to its
comprehensive standard library.

Guido van Rossum began working on Python in the late 1980s as a successor to the ABC
programming language and first released it in 1991 as Python 0.9.0.

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The spread of middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in 2015 caused 185 confirmed
cases and 36 deaths1. The first outbreak of MERS in the Republic of Korea (Korea) occurred
on May 2015, after a 68-year-old man returned from a business trip to several Middle East
countries. As Korea could not predict if MERS might flow across the border, MERS not
only threatened public health, but also caused huge economic loss in many different
categories, including the tourist industry and social activity. Such a situation indicates that
judging if an infectious disease will influx from other countries or not in advance is an
important issue to minimize the damage that ensues. MERS was first reported in September
2012 from Saudi Arabia, and was reported from several European countries, before MERS
occurred in Korea during 20151. As MERS was not a commonly known disease in Korea,
there was indifference to it before it occurred. However, if it was possible to predict that
MERS might flow into Korea while it was spreading around the world, Korea could have
prepared for the outbreak of the MERS to minimize the damage it caused. On the other hand,
while MERS was spreading through several continents, Ebola spread through 5 different
countries in Western Africa, infecting more than 6,500 people, and killing more than 3000
people2. Even though Ebola outbreaks occurred a few times on the Africa continent, the
2014 pandemic was the biggest one3. The 2014 Ebola pandemic in Western Africa showed
a fatality rate of over 50%. However unlike MERS, Ebola, did not spread throughout other
continents.

 Many different infectious diseases threaten lives worldwide. Some diseases, like
MERS, cause pandemics, spreading from country to country over continents, while
some do not spread over continents, but like Ebola, circulate only in a few countries.
As infectious disease issues arise worldwide, many researches were conducted to
estimate and predict the occurrence of infectious diseases. Authors of4,5 developed
infectious disease spread simulation models using mathematical models. These
research efforts utilized susceptible infected recovered (SIR) models to build an
infectious disease spread simulation model, and suggest strategies to control infectious
disease and maximize the effect of vaccination with the results from the simulation
models. Commonly, these SIR simulation models concern the population of the area
the model is based on and the characteristic of the disease, such as infection rate,
incubation rate, and recovery rate. Some research considers the passengers of flights
crossing borders to explain how infectious disease spreads abroad6. Moreover, authors
of7 claimed that infectious disease epidemics can be related to climate and climatic

2
 events, such as El Nino. According to the existing research reports above, the
occurrence of infectious diseases varies depending on many different reasons, such as
climate, lifestyle of countries, diplomatic relations between countries, or population.
Thus, it is important to collect and use the latest data for future infectious disease.

1.2 Objective of ML and AI: -

Machine-learning algorithms can contribute to the control of infectious diseases by

helping to both spatially and temporally predict the evolution and spread of infectious
diseases [5]. Machine-learning algorithms are capable of analyzing large, complex data
sets and identifying patterns and trends that may be difficult for humans to detect. This
makes them well suited for the prediction of infectious diseases, which often involve
multiple factors such as population demographics, environmental conditions, and
individual behaviors. In recent years, many studies have applied machine-learning
techniques to the prediction of infectious diseases, and the results have been promising.
One of the key challenges in using machine learning for disease prediction is the
availability of high-quality, comprehensive data. Infectious disease surveillance
systems often collect data on a variety of factors, including the number of reported
cases, the locations of outbreaks, and the demographics of infected individuals.
However, these data are often incomplete, biased, or noisy, which can affect the
performance of machine-learning models. Additionally, many infectious diseases have
long incubation periods, which means that data on past outbreaks may not accurately
reflect current conditions. To overcome these challenges, researchers have employed a
range of machine-learning algorithms, including decision trees, random forests, support
vector machines, and deep-learning networks. These algorithms have been applied to a
variety of data sets, including electronic health records, genomic data, and social media
posts. In general, the results of these studies have shown that machine-learning
algorithms can accurately predict the spread and onset of infectious diseases, with
performance comparable with or better than traditional statistical methods. Machine-
learning algorithms have shown great promise in predicting the spread and onset of
infectious diseases. For example, some studies have used machine learning to forecast
the number of cases of a particular disease in a given region on the basis of historical
data and current conditions.

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 Chapter 2
Method of Infectious disease outbreak prediction

Nowadays, as the Internet service is supplied worldwide, people obtain information

using the Internet service easily and rapidly. Even news articles are being published
through the Internet, unlike in the past, when they were printed on paper and
delivered. Accordingly, articles and reports related to infectious diseases are also
being published and updated through the Internet media in real-time. In other words,
unlike in the past, the Internet media has made it easy to obtain information about
the seriousness of infectious disease issues around the world today. Thus, in this
research, we collected articles and reports related to 115 different infectious diseases
from Medisys, to predict if a particular infectious disease that had not occurred for
several months in a particular country will break out in that country.

Medisys serves news articles and reports of infectious disease published worldwide
every day in real-time12. Articles and reports provided by Medisys are classified by
disease, and include the date and time they were published, and the latitude and
longitude of the information where the outbreak of disease occurred. Every articles
are also published in rich site summary (RSS) form. RSS is a method of displaying
content primarily used on news or blog sites. If website administrators display
website content in RSS format, recipients of this information may use it in different
formats. Figure 1 shows examples of data provided by Medisys in RSS form and
their components. The information of each article is displayed
between < item > and < /item > , and data such as article title, description,
publication date, original url, language code, category indicating the name of the
disease, latitude and longitude are displayed. Even though the Medisys reports do
not provide where the articles are published, it is possible to track where they were
published by analyzing the latitude and longitude information.

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We accumulated data from Medisys for January to December 2019. This data
consisted of 115,279 articles published in 237 different countries. As described in
Fig. 2, the number of articles per nation, and infectious disease were extracted from
the data, and utilized in this study. However, some poor and developing countries,
especially if involved in wars, have less opportunity to publish digital data.
Furthermore, the population sizes by country also varies which may affect the
number of published articles. For these reasons, data is normalized between 0 and 1
by each country to adjust values measured on different scales. Figure 3 shows the
reorganized data.

Figure:- 1.1 data provided by Medisys

Figure:- 1.2 components of RSS provided by Medisys.

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 Figure:- 1.3 Disease data

To apply the constructed data to machine learning models to predict if

disease that had not occurred for several months in a particular country

would occur or not, the data set was preprocessed as follows. For example,
as shown. Table A extracted the number of articles related to 115 different
diseases by 237 countries during the 6-month period February to July 2019.

From Table A, a disease list that contains ‘0′, which means diseases never

occurred from each country, was extracted and listed in Table B by country.
Each disease listed in Table B is considered, as it may have the potential for

outbreak, because it has not yet occurred in each country. Table C is the data
from August to October 2019, 3 months after July 2019. Then if the data of a
particular disease for a particular country is 0 in both Tables A and C, the

label of the disease of the country becomes ‘− 1′; while when Table A is 0,
but Table C is > 0, the label becomes ‘+ 1′. These labels can be arranged as
in Table D.

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 Chapter 3
Materials

Search Strategy and Data Sources

The Cochrane Collaboration and the meta-analysis of observational studies in

epidemiology (MOOSE) guidelines were followed in order to conduct the current systematic
review. The preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses guidelines
were used to report the process and the results. A bibliographic search was conducted on 9
November 2022, on the Scopus and PubMed/MEDLINE databases, combining keywords by
using the Boolean operators “AND”, ”OR” and “NOT”. The search strategy is reported
in Supplementary Table S1.
No time filter was used. Given the innovative nature of the study and its recent field of
application halfway between medicine, epidemiology, and information technology, it was not
always possible to apply all the items of the PRISMA checklist (more details are given in the
study limitations section).

3.1. Inclusion and Exclusion Criteria

Studies had to meet the following criteria to be considered eligible: (i) language: written
in English; (ii) population: human; (iii) interventions: machine learning; (iv)
comparators/control: infectious diseases; (v) outcomes: prediction/forecasting outbreaks
infectious diseases; (vi) type of study: epidemiologic studies (case-control, cross-sectional, or
cohort studies).
Exclusion criteria were as follows: (i) articles not published in English; (ii) not human;
(iii) full text not available; (iv) interventions: not about machine learning; (v)
comparators/control: not about infectious diseases; (vi) outcomes: not about
prediction/forecasting outbreaks infectious diseases; (vii) type of study: review article, meta-
analysis, trial, expert opinion, commentary, editorial, case report, letter to the editor, or book
chapters. See Supplementary Table S2 where the detailed description of the
inclusion/exclusion criteria is reported.

3.2. Selection Process and Data Extraction

Titles and abstracts of manuscripts found using the search strategy and those retrieved
from additional sources were independently assessed by two reviewers (D.G. and C.F.).

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Subsequently, the same authors assessed the eligibility of the articles and independently
reviewed the full downloaded text. When there was an unresolved disagreement between the
two evaluators, the discussion was resolved by discussing the case with a senior reviewer
(O.E.S.). Full texts were downloaded only for potentially eligible studies.
Data extraction was conducted only for those articles that met all the inclusion criteria,
and it was performed using a predefined and prepiloted spreadsheet elaborated in Microsoft
Excel for Windows. The extracted data included the author, publication year, study period,
country where the study was conducted, disease, data source, model and/or techniques, aim,
main results, accuracy/best model, space/time resolution, order of magnitude modeled
populations, funds, and conflicts of interest.

3.3. Strategy for Data Synthesis

By following the PRISMA 2020 guidelines, a flowchart was created showing the number
of references at each stage of the review process. Summary tables were created showing the
qualitative results of the literature. A full report was produced; in this, there is a general
overview of the main findings of the review.

3.4. Critical Appraisal

A critical evaluation of the articles using the Newcastle–Ottawa scale (NOS) was
independently carried out by two authors (O.E.S. and D.G.) [16]; this was a bias-risk
assessment tool for observational studies that can assign up to nine points for the lowest risk of
bias in three domains: (i) study group selection; (ii) comparability; and (iii) assessment of
exposure and outcomes for case-control and cohort studies, respectively.
An adapted version of the NOS was used to assess cross-sectional studies According to
these criteria and on the standard cutoff used in the previous literature studies were classified
as being of high, moderate, or low quality when their NOS score was ≥7, 4–6, and ≤3,
respectively.
In this research, we adapted three different machine learning models to investigate if early
disease outbreak detection would be possible using media articles and reports related to
infectious disease, and compared the performance of the models. Three representative models,
that is, support vector machine (SVM), which shows good performance consistently through
various fields; semi-supervised learning (SSL), which shows good performance when label
imbalanced data sets are used; and deep neural network (DNN), which is a trending method
showing outstanding performance, were used to perform prediction for disease occurrence. The

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model parameters of SVM, SSL, and DNN were searched over the following ranges. For SVM,
the best prediction performances were identified from the combinations of { γ, C} ∈ {0.0001,
0.001, 0.01, 0.1, 1, 10} × {0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, 1}13. For SSL, k, which is a parameter to decide
the number of neighbors was identified from k = {3, 7, 15, 20, 30}, and μ, which is a trade-off
parameter, was identified from μ = {0.0001, 0.01, 1, 100, 1000}. Finally, DNN model was
organized with 3 layers with batch size of 20 for each step. Dropouts are set as 0.3 for each
layer, and Adam gradient descent optimization was applied, while epoch was set as 500. After
disease outbreak prediction is made with each model, the model performance is calculated
using Table D of Fig. 4 by comparing the prediction results with the corresponding infectious
disease 3 months after the last date used as the training data. The order of progress from data
preprocessing to prediction can be summarized.

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 Chapter 4
Revolutionizing Public Health

Emerging technologies and data-driven approaches are at the forefront of this

transformation, offering numerous benefits.
4.1 Timely Response :-

Innovation in healthcare is accelerating at an unprecedented scale, particularly in the digital

sphere, according to the World Health Organization.
Advances such as artificial intelligence and gene editing are transforming the way diseases are
detected and treated.

1. Artificial Intelligence (AI):

AI can detect diseases early and make more accurate diagnoses more quickly than
conventional means. In breast cancer, AI is enabling mammograms to be reviewed 30
times faster with almost 100% accuracy, reducing the need for biopsies.

Meanwhile, a deep-learning algorithm developed by health-tech company Qure.ai is

enabling the early detection of lung cancer. The firm says a study demonstrated a 17%
improvement when using AI to interpret chest x-rays compared to conventional
radiology readings.

2. 3D printing:

The use of 3D printing techniques in healthcare is growing rapidly. More than 110
hospitals in the US had facilities for point-of-care 3D manufacturing in 2019, compared
with just 3 in 2010, according to data provided by Statista.

3. Telemedicine:

Telemedicine is the use of telecommunication and information technologies to provide

healthcare from a distance. It has been particularly useful during the COVID-19
pandemic, allowing patients to receive medical care without risking exposure to the
virus.

4. Gene editing:

Gene editing is a technique that allows scientists to change an organism’s DNA. It has
the potential to cure genetic diseases and prevent inherited disorders.

5. Blockchain:

Blockchain technology can help improve the security and privacy of electronic health
records. It can also help with the management of clinical trials and the tracking of
medical supplies.

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These innovations are revolutionizing the healthcare sector and have the potential to improve
public health outcomes worldwide.

4.2 Reduced Disease Spread :-

Reducing the spread of diseases is a critical public health goal. A systematic review published
in BMC Public Health found that public health interventions and non-pharmaceutical measures
were effective in decreasing the transmission of COVID-19 1. The study showed that travel
restrictions, border measures, quarantine.
This can be done by applying machine learning methods in predicting and detecting the deadly
infectious disease. Most reviews did not discuss about the machine learning algorithms,
datasets and performance measurements used for various applications in predicting and
detecting the deadly infectious disease. In contrast, a systematic review published in Heliyon
outlines the literature review based on two major ways (e.g., prediction, detection) to limit the
spread of deadly disease outbreaks. The study provides a review on various approaches (e.g.,
individual and ensemble models), types of datasets, parameters or variables and performance
measures used in the previous works.
In addition to these measures, there are several other ways to prevent the spread of infectious
diseases. Vaccination, testing, early diagnosis, quarantine, and medication treatment are proven
prevention methods 4. Immune health and hygiene are also important ways to stop the spread
4. Hand washing is a key strategy for preventing the spread of infectious dis Hand washing is
a key strategy for preventing the spread of infectious diseases. It is particularly important
before, during, and after preparing food, as well as after using the toilet. It ensures that harmful
pathogens are not spread from sources that are likely to harbor these pathogens to other areas
and food.

4.3 Resource Allocation.

There has been much discussion of resource allocation in medical systems, in the United States
and elsewhere. In large part, the discussion is driven by rising costs and the resulting budget
pressures felt by publicly funded systems and by both public and private components of mixed
health systems. In some publicly funded systems, resource allocation is a pressing issue
because resources expended on one disease or person cannot be spent on another disease or
person. Some of the same concern arises in mixed medical systems with multiple funding
sources.

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Although much has been written on resource allocation issues in medicine, there has been less
discussion about how resource allocation affects public health. Federal, state, and local public
health budgets in the United States constrain investments in health at those levels. In this
regard, they are more like some foreign medical systems than the more fragmented and mixed
public-private medical system of the United States. In the context of budget cuts domestically
and in many countries responding to an economic downturn, how to invest (and allocate) public
health resources is a pressing issue.

Most investments in public health aim to reduce population health risks, but some risks are
greater than others, and resource allocation decisions must respond to risks. Sometimes
resource allocation decisions focus on the immediate payoff of reducing risks from a specific
disease, whereas other resource allocation decisions affect the infrastructure needed to respond
to health risks over time. In addition, resource allocation decisions may determine who faces
risks—the distribution of risks matters, not just the aggregate impact. Resource allocation in
public health thus focuses on deciding what risks to reduce—which depends in part on their
seriousness as population factors and who faces them—and how to reduce risks.

The cases in this chapter that discuss resource allocation force us to contemplate decisions
about priorities in public health as opposed to the more frequently discussed medical issues
about health care priorities. Later we suggest that making decisions about these issues should
be part of a deliberative process that emphasizes transparency, stakeholder participation, and
clear, relevant reasoning.

4.4 Data Integration

Public health data integration is a crucial aspect of healthcare that helps policymakers
understand and manage population health more effectively 1. It is the process of combining
data from various sources to create a unified view of health information. This approach can
help identify patterns and trends in health outcomes, which can be used to develop targeted
interventions and improve public health outcomes.
There are several ways in which data integration is revolutionizing public health. For
example, it can help identify high-risk populations and target interventions to prevent the
spread of infectious diseases 1. It can also be used to monitor the effectiveness of public
health interventions and track the spread of diseases in real-time.

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 Machine learning (ML) methods can be leveraged to prevent the spread of deadly
infectious disease outbreak (e.g., COVID-19) 4. This can be done by applying machine
learning methods in predicting and detecting the deadly infectious disease. Most reviews
did not discuss about the machine learning algorithms, datasets and performance
measurements used for various applications in predicting and detecting the deadly
infectious disease. In contrast, a systematic review published in Heliyon outlines the
literature review based on two major ways (e.g., prediction, detection) to limit the spread
of deadly disease outbreaks. The study provides a review on various approaches (e.g.,
individual and ensemble models), types of datasets, parameters or variables and
performance measures used in the previous works.

4.5 Machine Learning and AI.

Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) are revolutionizing the healthcare
industry by transforming the way diseases are detected and treated 123. AI can detect
diseases early and make more accurate diagnoses more quickly than conventional means.
In breast cancer, AI is enabling mammograms to be reviewed 30 times faster with almost
100% accuracy, reducing the need for biopsies. Meanwhile, a deep-learning algorithm
developed by health-tech company Qure.ai is enabling the early detection of lung
cancer. The firm says a study demonstrated a 17% improvement when using AI to interpret
chest x-rays compared to conventional radiology readings 1.

This can be done by applying machine learning methods in predicting and detecting the
deadly infectious disease. Most reviews did not discuss about the machine learning
algorithms, datasets and performance measurements used for various applications in
predicting and detecting the deadly infectious disease. In contrast, a systematic review
published in Heliyon outlines the literature review based on two major ways (e.g.,
prediction, detection) to limit the spread of deadly disease outbreaks.
The study provides a review on various approaches (e.g., individual and ensemble models),
types of datasets, parameters or variables and performance measures used in the previous
works 4.

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4.6 Environmental Monitoring.

Environmental monitoring is an essential aspect of public health. It involves the collection

and analysis of data on environmental factors that can affect human health 1. The data
collected can be used to identify environmental hazards and develop strategies to mitigate
their impact on public health.

The use of remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) in environmental
monitoring is growing rapidly 2. These technologies can be used to monitor air and water
quality, track the spread of diseases, and identify areas at risk of environmental hazards.
For example, GIS can be used to map the distribution of pollutants in the air and water,
while remote sensing can be used to monitor changes in land use and vegetation cover.

Another area where environmental monitoring is revolutionizing public health is in the use
of global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) 3. GNSS can be used to monitor
environmental factors such as air quality, water quality, and soil moisture. This technology
can help identify areas at risk of environmental hazards and provide early warning of
potential health risks.

In summary, environmental monitoring is a critical component of public health. The use of

advanced technologies such as GIS, remote sensing, and GNSS is revolutionizing the way we
monitor and manage environmental hazards, and has the potential to improve public health
outcomes worldwide.

4.7 Telemedicine and Remote Monitoring: -

Telemedicine and remote monitoring are two technologies that have revolutionized the way
healthcare is delivered in the modern era 123. Telemedicine is the use of electronic information
and communication technologies to provide health-related services remotely, such as virtual
consultations, remote monitoring, and patient education. Remote patient monitoring (RPM) is
like having a mini-doctor’s office in your home.
It’s a way for doctors to keep an eye on your health without you having to visit them in person.
RPM uses tools and devices like heart rate monitors, blood pressure cuffs, and glucose meters
that have been upgraded for the digital age. When you use them at home, they don’t just give

14
readings; they send this data over the internet straight to your doctor’s system for remote patient
monitoring 2.
5G technology is transforming healthcare by revolutionizing telemedicine and remote patient
care. With its high-speed connectivity, low latency, and enhanced data transmission
capabilities, 5G is empowering healthcare professionals to provide better and more accessible
medical services to patients, regardless of their location 13. With 5G, doctors can diagnose
patients in real-time, no matter how far apart they are. It could even make remote surgeries a
reality. And the best part? 5G can help everyone, not just people in big cities. It has the power
to bring top-notch healthcare to places that were left out before.

4.8 Public Awareness.

Public awareness is a crucial aspect of revolutionizing public health. It involves educating the
public about health risks and promoting healthy behaviors 1. Public awareness campaigns can
be used to raise awareness about specific health issues, such as the importance of vaccination,
the dangers of smoking, and the benefits of exercise.

Public awareness campaigns can be delivered through a variety of channels, including social
media, television, radio, and print media 2. These campaigns can be targeted to specific
populations, such as children, adolescents, or seniors, and can be tailored to specific health
issues.
In addition to public awareness campaigns, there are several other ways to promote public
health. These include improving access to healthcare, increasing funding for public health
programs, and investing in research and development of new treatments and therapies 3.

Overall, public awareness is a critical component of revolutionizing public health. By

educating the public about health risks and promoting healthy behaviors, we can improve
public health outcomes and reduce the burden of disease worldwide.

4.9 Advantages :-
Early detection and prediction of disease outbreaks have several advantages. They can help
in the following ways:

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Timely containment: Early detection of an outbreak can help contain it at the local
level, thereby reducing adverse effects on populations.

Effective response: Early detection can help public health officials respond promptly
and effectively to an outbreak.

Reduced spread: Early detection can help arrest the spread of an outbreak, thereby
reducing the number of people affected.

Improved surveillance: Early warning systems can help improve surveillance of

infectious diseases outbreaks 4.

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 Chapter 5
Results and analysis

5.1 General outcome of the literature search

A total of 790 research papers were extracted using the stated search terms. The statistics of
these papers are presented in Table 1, which covers the journal article, conference papers,
chapters in books, letters editorials and so on. Each of the paper titles was examined
independently using the inclusion and exclusion criteria, leaving 44 papers that either work on
pandemic detection or prediction or both. 746 publications were deleted because they had no
relevance to the research subject (some were excluded because they were focused on other
aspects of detection and prediction non-specific to the pandemic, some are pandemic studies
but they are bot detection and/or prediction). Before these 8320 were detected, they were
further reviewed based on their abstracts, introductions, and conclusions and found none
relevant to the subject area. 4 duplicate papers were removed using Endnote X8. Several
articles were eliminated because they were difficult to understand in their entirety or because
their abstracts showed that they had no bearing on the question. A total of 44 papers were
selected for journal article assessment and state-of-the-art review; each was examined in its
completeness, separately, and again using the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Figure 3 shows
the graphical representation of the number of publications received and published before and
after the COVID-19 pandemic. The graph shows that the highest publications on the pandemic
were published in the year 2021. Figure 4 presents the most frequent word led by humans and
followed by COVID-19, DL also appears making it a prominent AI technique that is
contributing to the detection and prediction of pandemics.

Table 1 Classification of Publication by document type

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 Fig. 3 Trend of the detection and prediction of pandemic publications

Fig. 4 Most frequent words

5.2 Outcome of our findings based on research questions

Some of the selected articles uniquely answered the questions by addressing one unique facet
of Pandemic detection and prediction based on search area, application area, and geographical
area among others. While other articles mostly re-emphasized what was written in other
articles.

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What has been the pandemic experience globally

Presenting the statistics from the evaluated literature, the global trend of pandemic based on
the review literature and using selected search terms in Scopus in October 2022 is the focus of
Fig. 5 showing the trends of the pandemic, Saudi Arabia, United States, China, Pakistan and
Iran are top five (5) countries with cases of pandemic globally. Conversely, Kasakhstan,
Mexico, Palestine, Peru, and Ukraine are at least five (5) countries with cases of pandemic
globally.

It is worthy of note that the studies on DL techniques and prediction increased geometrically
between 2019 and 2022, this may not be unconnected to outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic.
Meanwhile, many countries in Africa that has no sophisticated healthcare infrastructure needs
to prepare for eventualities, many developed countries were able curtailed the pandemic
because of their sophisticated healthcare facilities. These answered (RQ1). To further explore
the pandemic experience globally, the most cited countries in the reviewed publications, was
investigated and the outcome is presented in Fig. 6 as the most cited countries. The United
State of America is leading followed by China.

Fig. 5 Trends in the number of publications using author country as a search key between
January 2013 to September 2022

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 Fig. 6 Ten most cited countries

In answering RQ1, the pandemic, especially the COVID-19 pandemic continues to impact all
aspect of lifes which is affecting 288 countries and territories globally. COVID-19 as one the
pandemic that has affected the world infected over 626,360, 380 people globally while
6,560,192 deaths have been recorded as of 8th October 2022 [89]. The pandemic has
disproportionately hurt the weak and the poor, and it poses a threat to further impoverish
millions of people. The pandemic caused a lockdown and shutdown of global business which
resulted in the current high inflation rate in the global market. In terms of publiccation, major
attention was shifted to the COVID-19 pandemic which cause the rapid increase in COVID-19
articles in the last three (3) years, although the present study covers ten years of the survey.

How far has AI/DL/ML techniques contributed to the detection and prediction of pandemics?

Presenting the statistics of the literature reviewed, the trends in the number of publications
using selected search terms in Scopus in October 2022 were the focus, Fig. 7 shows the
comparison of the trend of using the three AI-based technologies publication in pandemic using
selected search terms in Scopus for the period under review. These answered research question

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2 (RQ2). In the analysis of technological algorithm in detection and prediction of pandemic
over the period of ten (10) years. It comprises of AI/ML/DL techniques, DL techniques were
the least AI-based technological used for pandemic analysis and studies, it was reported in 3573
publications, most of these publications were not focusing on the detection and prediction of
pandemics. Figure 7 gives the details of the contributions of AI-based studies extracted from
the database, it presents the comparison of three AI-based technological tools used in the
analysis of pandemic data the last 10 years. Figure 8 presents the statistical chat of three AI-
based technologies for COVID-19 pandemic detection and prediction over the period of
10 years in the current study.

Fig. 7 Comparison of the trend of using the three AI-based techniques used in pandemic

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Fig 8 - Statistical Chat of Three AI-based techniques for COVID-19 Pandemic Detection and
Prediction Over the Period of 10 Years

Significance of DL techniques detecting and predicting pandemics

Although, DL was the least AI-based used among the three. This calls for further investigations.
Hence, the need for RQ3, that inquires for the significance of DL techniques for detecting and
predicting pandemics. DL is significant in the detection and prediction of pandemics; it was
mentioned in 1840 publications and 11 fields or subject areas.

How has DL techniques contributed to the detecting and predicting pandemics?

The analysis of DL-based state-of-the-art studies reviewed shows the novelty DL-based
techniques in the pandemic detection and prediction. DL techniques were used for various
purposes in the studies including the detection and prediction of pandemics. Table 2 presents
the outcome of the state-of-the-art reviewed literature on DL for the detection and predictions.

Table 2 State-of-the-art Review of DL Studies Focusing on Detection and Prediction

DL-based techniques in contributing in no small measure to the pandemic control and
healthcare delivery as a whole, it facilitates the detection, prediction, diagnosis and medical

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treatments of the infectious persons. Also, improvement in the applications for screening,
recognition, segmentation, and classification across numerous areas of healthcare have been
made possible by the use of DL techniques [68]. The results from the state-of-the-arts review
indicates that, the use of optimization and feature selection approach was substantially efficient
in terms of various performance in comparison to existing models DL techniques, but yet to be
adopted in the detection and prediction of pandemic.

What are the limitations of the existing DL techniques in the detection and prediction of
pandemics?

The success of DL technology did not come without some challenges such as low detection
and classification accuracy, which is a problem with pandemic detection and prediction [49].
Incomplete, improper label, unbalanced and biased dataset [78]. In addition, global challenges
for the development of ML/DL/AI for clinical decisions are to be considered. Table 3 describes
the main challenges for the detection and prediction of pandemics using the existing DL
technology that have been noted in the literature. It is significant to note that each study in the
literature has demonstrated the potential for automated pandemic detection and prediction but
has also encountered difficulties or lacked thorough investigation and evaluation of the
suggested solutions from many angles. It is worthy of note that COVID-19 pandemic dataset
was the most prominent pandemic dataset that DL techniques were used to implement within
the year under review, hence, the current survey is limited to COVID-19 pandemic studies.

Different factors need to be considered to successfully implement the detection and prediction
of a pandemic using DL techniques. In order to inform the research community and help it
create more effective, reliable, and accurate DL models for the various challenges in the
detection and prediction of pandemics, a critical analysis of the pertinent studies and techniques
is conducted. The associated limitations are highlighted, and the research gaps and future
challenges are identified. In order to inform the research community and help it create more
effective, reliable, and accurate DL technique for the various limitations in the detection and
prediction of pandemics, a critical analysis of the pertinent studies and techniques is conducted.
The associated limitations are highlighted, and the research gaps and future challenges are
identified.

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Outstanding issues in using deep learning solutions in pandemic diseases

DL-based techniques and architecture nevertheless have certain practical restrictions or

downsides or gaps in their usage to predict and detect future pandemics. This paper highlights
the limitations of DL-based techniques in the detection and prediction with respect to
pandemics as scope for future research directions and the outstanding issues. These gaps
include poor data quality management, difficulties in interpreting detection and prediction
outcomes and low accuracy to mention but a few. One of the key findings of this survey is that
most of the state-of-the-art studies did not apply optimization techniques, and/or feature
selection in their studies, and few studies that applied either optimization or feature selection
techniques did not predict of future occurrence of pandemics in the study. These issues may be
addressed by developing hyper-parameter-based using bioinspired optimizer of DL techniques
that modify the networks structures and the training process, ultimately develops DL-based
architecture to give reliable first-hand detection and prediction of pandemics. The DL
architecture’s parameters can be optimized using pre-trained model and this can also be
compared with non-trained DL architectures. Additionally, by highlighting the crucial features,
dataset improvement approaches can help increase detection accuracy. Overall, researchers,
engineers, computer scientists and healthcare experts who working in the field of AI/DL/ML
will find the results of this paper useful for development of an effective techniques for detection
and prediction of pandemics to further prepare for future pandemic and IDs thereby helping
healthcare delivery systems.

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 Chapter 6
Conclusion and future consideration

The previous and recent COVID-19 pandemic has inspired scientists to use various learning
algorithm techniques to detect and predict the future occurrence of the pandemic. The
current situation calls for a more accurate, more efficient, less complicated and inexpensive
system that is capable of both the detection and prediction of pandemics and IDs. Although
there are numerous diagnostic techniques for identifying pandemics such as SARS-CoV-2
infection, DL techniques happen to be one of the most widely used AI technologies to battle
this pandemic.
It has contributed in no small measure in curbing the pandemics as well as prevent its
spread. This paper intends to find out various DL-based techniques and their contributions
towards the detection and prediction of pandemics, Furthermore, this paper presents the
state-of-the-art review of research activities about how AI/DL/ML techniques have
contributed to the detection and prediction of pandemic in terms of pandemics monitoring
systems, classification human activity recognition, data fusion, collecting vital signs of
patients among others. In this survey, we reviewed more forty-four (44) published research
papers written in a decade from 2013 to 2022 were reviewed. In order to understand the
significance of DL contributions and limitations for the pandemic control.

Hence, the current studies has contributed to the body knowledge by providing a
comprehensive overview of the current state-of-the-art research in the field of AI particularly
DL-techniques techniques for the detection and prediction of COVID-19 pandemic, identify
gaps in the existing literature, and provide guidance for future research directions.

This survey addresses and identifies a vacuum in the field by summarizing and assessing
existing research that applied DL techniques for the detection and predictions of pandemics
in their publication and identifies gaps in the existing literature for the purpose of future
research direction in this aspect. An analysis of the different studies based on DL techniques
for the detection and prediction of pandemic has been performed.
The primary goal of this study is to provide researchers with some crucial research briefings
that may help them create more effective and robust DL-based approach, that will be
efficient and effective for the detection and prediction of pandemic. In order to explore the

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advantages of DL techniques better in the area of detection and prediction of pandemics and
IDs control and prevention, this study considered varying challenges and alleviates them in
different aspects such as feature selection, recognition, optimization and computational
complexity.
Deep learning (DL) is becoming a fast-growing field in the medical domain and it helps in
the timely detection of any infectious disease (IDs) and is essential to the management of
diseases and the prediction of future occurrences. Many scientists and scholars have
implemented DL techniques for the detection and prediction of pandemics, IDs and other
healthcare-related purposes, these outcomes are with various limitations and research gaps.
For the purpose of achieving an accurate, efficient and less complicated DL-based system
for the detection and prediction of pandemics, therefore, this study carried out a systematic
literature review (SLR) on the detection and prediction of pandemics using DL techniques.

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