Rise of New Age Automotive Disruption-2
Rise of New Age Automotive Disruption-2
A
utomotive sector distribution is undergoing a transformative journey 1/ INTRODUCTION 4
impacted by megatrends around new mobility concepts, autonomous
driving, digitalization and electrification. This has resulted in several
new business models being explored, with OEMs, distributors and new 2/ BUYING A CAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST
players, such as digital platforms and tech providers, looking to introduce IN THE ERA OF DIGITAL EVERYTHING 5
highly digital and agile sales models.
In parallel, as the number of electric vehicles rises, diversification of the 3/ FORMALIZATION OF USED CAR CHANNELS
revenue pool and the relevance of value-added services will increase AND INNOVATIONS IN THE BUSINESS MODELS 7
in the distribution business. Greater focus on the certified pre-owned
(CPO) business and expansion of subscription sales should also help
distributors maintain their relevance as car ownership becomes relatively 4/ SUBSCRIPTIONS FOR THE
less important for younger generations. AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY 9
6/ INCREASING SIGNIFICANCE OF
VALUE-ADDED SERVICES 13
7/ FINAL CONSIDERATIONS 14
Cover photo AerialPerspective Works/Getty Images
the coming years. The region witnesses 2–3 million light vehicle sales every year Key automotive Impact on revenues Impact on CAPEX/OPEX
distribution trends for distributors/dealers for distributors/dealers
and is home to a ~35 million passenger car fleet.
2/
Non-exhaustive
A/ "MADE trends" are defining key automotive distribution trends Buying a car in the Middle East
in the Middle East in the era of digital everything
Key trends impacting automotive distribution Associated "MADE" trend Impact timeline The digitalization of all aspects of our life and the unstoppable technological
advancements find a perfect match in Middle East consumers, where two-thirds of
Customers increase their usage of digital channels Increased digitalization leading to higher Short-mid term
for research and purchasing reliance of customers on digital channels
the current population is aged 35 or under and Internet penetration has reached
~ 96% in key markets (such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia).
Second-hand vehicle sales become more Rise of multiple online players with varying Short-mid term
organized and new sales models are deployed business models for used car trade Buying a car is no exception – according to data, 96% of prospective auto buyers
in the UAE and Saudi Arabia initiate their purchase journey online, leveraging the
Drivers are less attached to vehicle ownership – Increase in preference for shared mobility Short-mid term Internet to research and explore their new car. C
subscription and usage models become more over vehicle ownership
widespread
Up to two-thirds of this research is conducted on mobile devices such as smartphones
Electric vehicles are more prevalent and transform Increasing penetration of electric vehicles, Mid-long term
and tablets. Once they find their perfect car, over 50% of customers would also use
the automotive distribution business impacting vehicle sales models and aftersales the Internet to signal their interest and get quotes, continuing their all-digital
business
experience.
Dealers increase their offerings of value-added Electrification and mobility driving advanced Mid-long term
services services such as battery/charging or smart
In many cases, the very first time customers approach dealerships and transfer their
mobility solutions journey to the real world is at the moment of finally closing the purchase of their
vehicle. Moreover, even there, customers use their smartphones to support their
Overview of New Autonomous physical shopping experience with details on configuration, finance package,
Digitalization
1) Middle East refers to the following countries: Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Electrification
MADE trends United Arab Emirates and Yemen Mobility Driving
accessories and services.
Roland Berger 4 Future of automotive distribution in ME Roland Berger 5 Future of automotive distribution in ME
Non-exhaustive
C/ Digitalization statistics from Roland Berger's Automotive Disruption Radar, June 2022 D/ Digitalization of the automotive purchase journey in the Middle East
Usage of Internet in vehicle purchasing – To what extent will you use the Internet? (average % of
Customer research Purchase Aftersales Trade-in/
people who selected the usage) and awareness (new car) used car sales
… to inform me about the car … to buy directly • Pre-landing activity • Vehicle purchase • Service reminder • Listing
… to get offers to buy
itself, its features, etc. on the Internet (advertising …) • Configuration • Service booking • Offer/lead
• Vehicle browsing • Contract signature • Service agreement management
• Vehicle configuration • Legal and admin • Purchase of parts • Purchase
Bahrain 85 55 15 Key
• Financing exploration (registration) • Repair status tracking • Trade-in
activities
Kuwait 85 45 15 • Offer/lead • Payment and follow-up
Oman 80 35 10 management • Added services • Payment
• Test drive • Warranty extension
Qatar 80 50 20 • Financing
Saudi Arabia 80 50 15
UAE 80 50 15
Digitalization
level
China 90 80 30
Europe 1) 75 53 16
United States 75 40 20 Activities with current high degree of digitalization Digitalization level Low High
Source: Roland Berger
Global average 78 52 16
1) Average score for Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, UK
Source: RB online survey September 2022: 22,704 participants – Participants by country: Bahrain (152); Belgium (976); Brazil (1,002); Canada (999);
The Middle East (ME) market witnesses a higher relative level of used car
To accommodate this evolution and the increasing consumer preference for digital sales, transactions every year. A total of 800k+ used cars were sold in the UAE in 2019,
Middle East distributors, dealers and OEMs are revamping their platforms and digital implying a 3.5:1 ratio of used to new car sales in the country. The used car sales
ecosystem to include ever more services and enhance the buyer experience. D trends are expected to stay strong in the coming years, with the sale of over
1 million used cars anticipated annually in the UAE by 2025, for example.
While the direct online purchase of cars in the Middle East is not fully developed, almost
all OEMs/NSCs (National Sales Companies) have started to progress toward the The ME market currently has three major categories of players in the used car
implementation of an omnichannel journey. This channel strategy combines physical segment. Along with the independent used car dealers and franchise-based
experience with advanced digital services and platforms for enhanced consumer dealers, there has been an increasing proliferation of online-focused players
interaction. Digitalization does not stop at the point of purchase, with aftersales and with varying business models. Some of these business models include classified/
trade-ins being digitalized as well. Immediacy and superior experience are among the listing, marketplace and online auction-based sales.
main reasons why online channels have become so popular.
There is a concerted effort from the used car players to create a seamless used
The transition to the digital channel generates significant amounts of customer data that car journey, offering attractive and easy-to-access financing options as well as
can be leveraged for advanced product, service and channel offerings. Given the value-added services such as doorstep test drive and delivery options. To
increasing relevance of data-driven business decisions, OEMs are incorporating increase consumer confidence around second-hand vehicles, the majority of
standard practices throughout their sales network in order to control the data. them have started to offer detailed certification reports, coupled with extended
aftersales and warranty packages. E
However, certain customers cite price transparency as one of the key barriers to
finalizing their purchase online, as they fear they could get a better deal at the dealership. A fundamental shift is expected in the used car market structure going forward.
Also, as human interactions are not fully replicable online, dealers should aim to become Historically, consumers in the Middle East exhibited strong preferences for C2C
an experience center, bringing customers closer to the brand/vehicle in the offline (customer-to-customer, peer-to-peer) channels for used car sales. However, these
touchpoint(s) of their journey. This can be done through a variety of formats that favor are expected to decline with the anticipated increase in customer confidence in
client convenience and proximity at each step, such as pop-up and urban stores. the organized segment led by the independent and franchise dealers.
Roland Berger 6 Future of automotive distribution in ME Roland Berger 7 Future of automotive distribution in ME
E/ Current landscape of used car operations in the Middle East: Case study for the UAE The penetration of strong, dedicated certified pre-owned (CPO) programs
among the leading new car dealers in the UAE is currently 60%–70%. The used
Online-focused platforms Independent used car Franchised dealers
operating across various dealers (mostly part of with used car
car business presents a strong opportunity to franchise dealers to diversify their
business models (e.g. traditional automotive business presence revenue sources. Hence, we expect used car sales from franchise dealers to
classified, marketplace, business groups)
Categories
online auctions)
witness the strongest growth in the coming years (3x–4x sales in the UAE).
of used car
operators in
the market • SellAnyCar.com • Copart • Premier Motors It will be important for automotive dealerships to seek OEM support and
• Carnab • Al-Futtaim Motors • AGMC launch interactive digital platforms for their CPO business. An omnichannel
• CarSwitch • Sun City Motors • Abu Dhabi Motors
• Dubizzle Cars retail strategy is expected to be the key to ensuring rapid ramp-up of the
used car business. Such platforms will also offer data-driven insights to
Money back One-year Delivered to your Multiple financing enrich the dealers' customer offerings. As the market evolves, we expect new
guarantee warranty doorstep options
Snapshot business models around subscription and leasing to gain prominence for used
of measures
taken by the cars as well. F
A 10-day return policy Drive your car for one Simple viewings at your Hassle-free and
used car
on any car purchases year with the peace home or at any of quick financing
players –
through Carnab of mind of a new car. our national branches made possible The greater penetration of digital platforms increases the footprint and visibility of
case study
You can even choose to
for Carnab used cars across the region and beyond. Dealers may leverage such platforms and
extend it by another year
a coherent export/logistics infrastructure to offer their used vehicles in markets such
Source: online channels, dealers' websites, Roland Berger as Yemen or some African countries.
The transition to EVs also opens up new opportunities for used car sales – more
price-sensitive customers will tap into the used car market to access EVs with lower
F/ Used car market structure and expected shift: Case study for UAE financial commitment. The residual values of EVs and their success in the second-
hand market is still uncertain, as EVs are currently depreciating faster than ICEs
Expected trend
Used car market structure
in next 4–5 years Deep dive into due do quicker obsolescence.
potential growth
Business drivers for
1. Source 2. Wholesaler 3. Retailer franchise dealers' In turn, opportunities may arise for dealers to drive the transition to electric through
model
CPO business special offers and control of remarketing for used EVs.
C2C business
C2C Direct to customer is expected
• Support of OEM
4/
to go down
pre-owned programs
Subscriptions for the automotive industry
E-marketplace for
• Adoption of an exten-
C2C/dealer-based
sive vehicle valuation
sale The overall shift in consumer preferences toward the shared economy and the
and certification
program enabling associated models of ownership have impacted how people relate to their vehicle
seamless buying and
Moderate to
and the value they associate with owning one. Notably, younger generations are
selling of used cars
Used car dealers high growth shifting toward more flexible solutions characterized by low capital commitment.
Used car
Consumer C2B2C dealerships is expected for • Building of strong
independent
In fact, 65% of people surveyed globally in our ADR study are already very familiar
digital presence to
Independent dealers offer end-to-end with new mobility concepts, such as car sharing and ride hailing.
dealers services including a
Trade-ins digital valuation tool
at new car In such models, customers subscribe to the service by paying a monthly/yearly fee
dealerships • Customized financing
Franchise dealers
for which they get to drive the car with all expenses included (except for gas).
programs based on
Multifold
vehicle valuation Subscription plans come with flexible tenures, typically ranging from one month to
growth is 48 months. The customer has the flexibility to upgrade the vehicle and associated
• Standard and add-on
Auctions expected for
Semi-organized/ franchise
warranty and aftersales services at some point during the contract.
Business B2B2C services linked to
unorganized dealers
Brokers channels vehicle valuation
While Europe remains one of the leading markets by revenues for such services,
with Geely's new brand (Lynk and Co) having opted for subscription as their go-to-
Source: expert input, Roland Berger
Roland Berger 8 Future of automotive distribution in ME Roland Berger 9 Future of automotive distribution in ME
G/ Overview of key operating models across the subscription playbook in the Middle East management and end-of-life management capabilities, in order to drive profitability.
However, this will entail managing the risks associated with working capital,
1. Pure-play 2. Brokerage
3. Rental residual value and overall asset ownership by the entity managing the service.
subscription subscription 4. OEMs
companies
platform platform
OEMs are also adapting to the evolution in consumer preferences by intensifying
Subscription of Subscription of Subscription as an Subscription as a
their focus on B2B and fleet sales and developing tailored products for the segment.
Operating
vehicles – Platform vehicles – platform acts additional service financing option for Vehicles dedicated to subscription and fleet sales are offered with more standardized
manages own stock as broker for dealers offering OEM vehicles
model
(no own assets or fleet
specifications and finishing. Some OEMs have also launched their own proprietary
management) subscription service, such as Porsche and Volvo.
5/
processes of interest with
dealer network Rise in vehicle electrification
and implications for car dealers
Examples • MOOV by Al-Futtaim • Invygo • Selfdrive.ae • Yet to be deployed
(Middle East) • Swapp • Carasti in the Middle East
Electrification is currently a key automotive disruptor across markets, with some of
Source: Roland Berger
the markets, such as Norway, significantly leading the electrification curve (>70%
xEV penetration in 2021). By 2040, we expect 40%–50% of global new light vehicle
sales to be electric. In the Middle East, we expect Saudia Arabia (KSA) and the UAE
market model for the region, the demand for such services is also expanding in the to also observe a significant rise in battery electric vehicle (BEV) penetration in the
Middle East (especially in the GCC). coming years. For KSA and the UAE, 40%–75% BEV penetration in new car sales
is anticipated by 2035. H
We see three major types of benefits driving the customer appeal of subscription
models: Regulatory push in both countries will be key to driving demand. While a certain
A. The simplified digital experience offered by subscription platforms, enabling level of penetration may be reached on the basis of OEMs' EV offerings and the
an all-digital purchase journey consumer pull effect, a much higher penetration can be achieved with regulatory
B. Lower ownership risk manifested in lower capital commitment and an push such as emission restrictions and ICE phase-out.
absence of residual value risks
C. Greater flexibility to upgrade vehicles and change ownership patterns Although Saudi Arabia currently has <1% EV sales, the upcoming local
The quest for a profitable business model associated with subscription often relies manufacturing by two EV-only brands (Lucid and Ceer), charging infrastructure
on the ability to effectively manage the purchase price of the fleets. set-up and increasing customer awareness are expected to drive EV sales in the
medium to long term. High EV penetration is a core focus for Saudia Arabia,
MOOV is the most relevant case study for the Middle East. The platform is owned considering the electrification and sustainability goals of the Saudi Arabia's Vision
by a long-time Toyota distributor in the UAE (Al-Futtaim) and offers subscriptions 2030. The UAE witnessed ~3k BEV sales in 2021 (~2% penetration), with Tesla
as short as one month on the vehicles for which the company is an official distributor. capturing ~60% market share. Going forward, we expect a steep rise in EV
Al-Futtaim's move sets a precedent for the region and proves the potential advantage penetration. H
dealers may have in such an ecosystem. G
The UAE's electrification growth will be led by its expanding EV charging network
Distributors and dealers with existing large fleet sales could be able to secure lower (300+ charging stations installed currently), availability of new EV models and
purchasing prices from OEMs and insurance providers, while leveraging their fleet sustainability targets.
Roland Berger 10 Future of automotive distribution in ME Roland Berger 11 Future of automotive distribution in ME
H/ EV penetration scenarios in the Middle East: Case study for KSA and the UAE I/ Impact of electrification on the Middle East aftermarket
Roland Berger 12 Future of automotive distribution in ME Roland Berger 13 Future of automotive distribution in ME
7/ FINAL CONSIDERATIONS
The trends described in this publication are expected to have a multifold impact
AUTHORS
on the business of dealers and distributors in the Middle East, both in terms of SANTIAGO CASTILLO
their financial performance and the evolution of their product/service portfolio. Senior Partner +971 56 656-9155 santiago.castillo@rolandberger.com
Investments and M&A activity will be required in the short/medium term to diversify ANDREA CAVALLERI
into new products and adopt new business models. Dealers and distributors should Senior Consultant +971 50 712-7615 andrea.cavalleri@rolandberger.com
prioritize the value chain segments in which they want to play based on the market
potential and the synergies that exist with their current resources.
Roland Berger 14 Future of automotive distribution in ME Roland Berger 15 Future of automotive distribution in ME
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