Mustansiriyah University

College of Engineering

Highway and Transportation Department

TRANSPORTATION PLANNING

‫ﺗﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻨﻘﻞ‬
Fourth Stage

Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael

2024-2025
 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

References:

1. Nicholas J. Garber, Lester A. Hoel, TRAFFIC AND HIGHWAY

ENGINEERING, Fourth Edition
2. Khisty, C. Jotin and Lall, B. Kent, Introduction to Transportation
Engineering, 2002.

Urban transportation planning is the process that leads to decisions on

transportation policies and programs. In this process, planners develop information
about the impacts of implementing alternative courses of action involving
transportation services, such as new highways, bus route changes, or parking
restrictions. This information is used to help decision-makers (elected officials or
their representatives) in their selection of transportation policies and programs.

Transportation planning is a process that involves:

 The analysis of current travel patterns,

 The forecasting of future travel patterns (Transportation Demand Analysis),
 The proposal of transportation infrastructure and services, and
 The evaluation of proposed alternative projects to be considered by decision
makers for implementation

The transportation planning process relies on travel demand forecasting, which

involves predicting the impacts that various policies and programs will have on
travel in the urban area. The forecasting process also provides detailed information,
such as traffic volumes, bus patronage, and turning movements, to be used by
engineers and planners in their designs. A travel demand forecast might include the
number of cars on a future freeway or the number of passengers on a new express

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

bus service. It might also predict the amount of reduction in auto use that would
occur in response to a new policy imposing taxes on central-area parking.

Transportation planning should answer these questions

 What is the total number of trips generated in specific urban zones?

 What is the number of trips between all urban pair zones?
 What is the traffic load at specific links in the urban transportation network?
 What is the number of passenger kilometers that can be achieved?

Common urban transportation problems:

 Congestion
 Safety
 Efficiency
 Mobility
 Noise and air pollution

Planning can be defined as the activity or process that examines the potential of
future actions to guide a situation or system toward a desired direction. The most
important aspect of planning is that it is oriented toward the future. Transportation
planners rely on historical data, model predictions, comparable studies, and many
assumptions to make estimates about future conditions and predictions about future
transportation needs.

Modeling: a process in which a model is built to represent a base year data i.e.
“Calibration” is done to the model using this data.

Purpose of Modeling: Using the model to forecast a future data for a design year
(after 20 to 30 years).

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

Modelling is the core of the planning process. Model is a mathematical equation

Models are built for:

1. Population forecast

2. Economic activities: e.g. size and type of industry to be created

3. Land use: to figure out

 Increase in residential density

 increase in commercial land use
 increase in industrial land use
 increase in retail land use

4. Trip activities

Outcome: trip rates (volume)

Types of Planning & Characteristics

1- Long Range Planning:
This is done by “long range planning”.
Its Characteristics:
1) Long period 20 to 30 years
2) Requires huge financial expenditures
3) Requires extensive construction programs
4) Multi-level administrative involvement
5) Very complex in scope: involves analysis of impacts on
a) society
b) economy
c) environment

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

2- Short and medium-term Planning (Transportation System Management

TSM)
Programs designed to reduce demand for transportation through various means,
such as the use of public transit and of alternative work hours. Solve problems
through expenditures of limited resources to obtain optimum operation such as
1) Improving street operation
2) Car pooling
3) High-occupancy lanes, etc.
Its Characteristics:
1) 5 to 10 year period
2) Resources are limited
3) No major construction
4) Scope is usually limited
The key word here is management. The TSM Element is concerned with making
existing systems as efficient as possible and with making provisions for an area's
short-range transportation needs. Automobiles, taxis, trucks, terminals, public
transit, pedestrians, and bicycles are all parts of the urban transportation system.
There are four basic categories of actions to increase the efficiency of the different
parts of the system.
1. Actions to ensure the efficient use of existing road space. These actions include
measures to manage and control the flow of motor vehicles. Installing reversible
lanes to accommodate rush-hour traffic and improving intersection capacities are
examples.
2. Actions to reduce vehicle use in congested areas. Encouraging carpooling
and other forms of ride-sharing are examples.

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

3. Actions to improve transit service. People can be encouraged to use transit

by such actions as providing park-and-ride services from fringe areas to the central
business district.
4. Actions to improve internal transit management efficiency — for example,
developing management tools, such as information systems, or marketing
campaigns.
To decide which actions to implement, you need a clear understanding of how each
would affect the transportation system and the region as a whole. "Planning tools"
are developed so that you can predict impacts and provide the information
necessary for decision-makers to evaluate alternatives and select the best courses of
action.

Land use and transportation system:

Piece of land with a particular type of land use produces a certain number of trips.
Theses trips indicate the need for transportation facilities in order to serve the trip
making demand. In turn the new or improved transportation facilities provide better
accessibility. Naturally, the demand to develop this land increases because of its
improved accessibility, causing its land value to increase. So Travel patterns are
influenced by land use.
Land use models are used to forecast future development patterns as well as the
potential for proposed transportation improvement to induce new or accelerated
land development in a particular area. The output of land use models typically
provides the input to the trip generation step of the travel forecasting model.

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

Figure: Land use and Transportation Cycle

Land Use Types

Common land use types include:
• Port and terminal: land uses, including waterports, airports, transit stations, etc.
• Industrial: land uses, including general light and heavy industrial, manufacturing,
warehousing, etc.
• Residential: land uses, including single-family homes, various types of
apartments, senior living, etc.
• Lodging: land uses, including hotels, motels, resorts, etc.
• Recreational: land uses, including various parks, fitness facilities, movie theaters,
racetracks, etc.
• Institutional: land uses, including schools, churches, military facilities, museums,
libraries, etc.
• Medical: land uses—hospital, nursing home, clinic. Office: land uses, including
general office, medical offices, government offices, post office, etc.

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

• Retail: land uses, including various supply stores, convenience stores,

supermarkets, sporting goods stores, apparel stores, pet stores, etc.
• Services: land uses, including restaurants, fast food, coffee shops, gas stations,
banks, etc.
Example: A 500-acre site is being developed to support 400 single-family detached
houses and a swimming pool with a clubhouse. Estimate the number of trips (T)
exiting the subdivision during a typical am peak hour.

Solution:
T =0.70* (X) +9.74, where X is the number of dwelling units.
T=0.70 *(400)+ 9.74 T=290 total trips
Now, Texit = 0.75* (290)= 218 trips exiting during the Am peak hour.
The 0.75 comes from the chart in that 75% are exiting and 25% are entering during
the Am peak hour.

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

Accessibility
The basic concept underlying the relationship between land use and transportation
is accessibility. In its broadest context, accessibility refers to the ease of movement
between places, it provide the ability for people and goods to be able to move
efficiently and effectively from point to point. Accessibility increases in either in
terms of time or money when movement becomes less costly. Also, the propensity
for interaction increases as the cost of movement decreases.

Example 1

To Node ∑ Change

A B C D
From
A 0(0) 6(4) 7(6) 9(8) 22(18) -18%
B 6(4) 0(0) 6(5) 4(2) 16(11) -31%
C 7(6) 6(5) 0(0) 7(5) 20(16) -20%
D 9(8) 4(2) 7(5) 0(0) 20(15) -25%

Note: Figures outside parentheses refer to original travel time; figures within parentheses refer to travel times after

improvements.

Each node (A, B,C,D) represents an activity center, and each link (e.g., AB, BC)
represents travel times in minutes. Transportation improvements are implemented
on each link such that travel times are reduced. How do improvements affect the
activity centers (land use)? (Revised travel times are indicated parentheses.)

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

Network for example 1

Solution:
The matrix shows the existing and revised times of travel. The row sums are the
accessibility measure for each node. Naturally, lower travel times mean greater
accessibility. In cases, there is a reduction in travel time: A, -18%;B, -31% C -20%;
and D), 25%, it is apparent that activity center B has benefited the most, followed
by D, C, and A.

Example 2
A downtown (D) is connected by arterials to activity/residential centers By A, B
and C and to one another with travel times shown on the links. The arterials
become more and congested, with the result that travel times (in minutes) increase
to new levels as shown in Figure below and most of the commercial and business
centers located downtown establish branch centers in A, B, and C. Which activity
center is likely to prosper most? What possible actions on the part of the city would
improve the downtown?
To Activities ∑ Change
From Center
Downtown D
A B C

A 0(0) 8(7) 10(9) 4(16) 22(32) 45 %

B 8(7) 0(0) 12(11) 3(15) 23(33) 43%
C 10(9) 12(11) 0(0) 5(20) 27(40) 48%
D 4(16) 3(15) 5(20) 0(0) 12(51) 32'.5%

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

Solution:
Activity centers A, B, and C are all likely to be equally benefited, as the difference
between 43,45, and 48 seems hardly significant. The downtown is certainly going
to deteriorate rapidly. The possible ways by which it could be saved would be to
reduce the travel time by improving the traffic flow on the arterials or to implement
a bus system that would compete with the travel time to activity centers.
Personal accessibility is usually measured by counting the number of activity sites
(also called opportunities) available at a given distance from the person's home and
factoring that number by the intervening distance. Accessibility measures can be
calculated for specific types of opportunities, such as shopping or working. One
such measure is given by

where
Ai = accessibility of person i
Oj = number of opportunities at distance d from person i home
dij= some measure of separation between i and j (such as travel time, travel cost, or
just simply distance)
b = a constant

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

Such an accessibility index is a measure of the number of potential destinations

available to a person and how easily he or she can reach them. The accessibility of
a place with respect to other places in the city can be measured in a similar way, in
which case Ai is the accessibility of zone i.
Hansens Accessibility Model
This model is designed to predict the location of the population based on the
premise that employment is the predominant factor in determining location, he
suggested using of an accessibility model where

Aij= Accessibility index of zone I with respect to zone j

Ej= Total employment
Dij= distance between I and j
b = an exponent

the overall accessibility index for zone I Aij= ∑

The amount of vacant land that is suitable and available for residential use is also
an additional factor in attracting the future population to the zone in question. This
is referred to as holding capacity (Hi), the development potential of a zone Di is
therefore
Di= AiHi
And the population is distributed to zones based on the relative development

potential ∑
if the total growth in population in a future year is Gi, the

population allocated to zone i will be ∑

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

Example: a small three zones with the following characteristics

Zone Total existing population Holding Capacity (arces)
1 2000 100
2 1000 200
3 3000 300
total 6000 600
The travel time in minutes are given in the following table
To j 1 2 3
From i
1 2 6 8
2 6 3 5
3 8 5 4
An exponent of 2 can be assumed based on other studies, if the population of this
city is expected to rise to 8000 persons in 20 years, how will the population be
distributed by zone? Assume that the total employment in each zone is proportional
to the total existing population in that zone.
Solution

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

The Density Saturation Gradient Method (DSGM):

It can be used as a tool for the analysis of existing land use structure and also for
use in forecasting land use structure. The forecast is basically a trend projection of
the existing land use and density structure in the region. The method is based
essentially on the regularity of the decline in density and the percent saturation with
the distance from the Central Business District (CBD).This method depends
equally upon the relationship between distance and present saturation. Three
empirical rules are used in this method:

1- The intensity of land use declines as the distance or travel time to the CBD
increases.
2- The ratio of the amount of land in use to the amount of available land decreases
as distance from the CBD increases.

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

3- The proportion of land devoted to each type of land use in an area remains
stable.
Clark derived the basic equation for expressing this density-distance relationship.
The basic equation:

Example: A small city has a general structure consisting of three rings as shown in
the figure, one of the rings contains three typical zones (1,2,3). The characteristics
of these zones are as follows: the existing population (for 1980) of each of the three
zones is known, as is the additional land available for residential use (indicated in
columns 5 and 2 respectively). The population of these three zones for 2000 has
been obtained and is known to be 6100. Allocate this forecast population to the
three zones using the density saturation gradient method.
Solution:
The analysis of existing residential development as follows:
Average residential density of zones (person/arces) = 5006/231= 21.7 per arce
Residential capacity of zones =5006+(21.7*130) = 7827 persons
Percent existing residential capacity =5006/7827= 64%
The allocation of additional population (6100-5006= 1094)

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

The Transportation System

It consists of two main components: demand and supply.
Travel demand derives from the need to access urban functions and services in
different places and is determined by the distribution of households and activities in
the area. Household members make long-term “mobility choices” (holding a

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

driving license, owning a car, etc.) and short-term “travel choices” (trip frequency,
time, destination, mode, path,1 etc.), and use the transportation network and
services so that they can undertake different activities (work, study, shopping, etc.)
in different locations.
The transportation supply component is made up of the facilities (roads, parking
spaces, railway lines, etc.), services (transit lines and timetables), regulations (road
circulation and parking regulations), and prices (transit fares, parking prices, road
tolls, etc.) that produce travel opportunities. Travel from one location to another
frequently involves the successive use of several connected facilities or services.
Transportation facilities generally have a finite capacity, that is, a maximum
number of units that may use them in a given time interval. Transportation facilities
also generally exhibit congestion; that is, the number of their users in a time unit
affects their performance.
The performance of the transportation system influences the relative accessibility
of different zones of the urban area by determining, for each zone, the generalized
cost (disutility) of reaching other zones (active accessibility), or of being reached
from other zones (passive accessibility). As has been noted, both these types of
accessibilities influence the location of households and economic activities and
ultimately the real estate market
Travel demand: is expressed as the number of persons or vehicles per unit time
that can be expected to travel on a given segment of a transportation system under a
set of given land-use, socioeconomic, and environmental conditions.

Forecasts of travel demand: are used to establish the vehicular volume on future
or modified transportation system alternatives.

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

Factors Influencing Travel Demand: three factors that influence the demand for
urban travel are:

(1) The location and intensity of land use;

Is a primary determinant of travel demand. The amount of traffic generated by a

parcel of land depends on how the land is used. For example, shopping centers,
residential complexes, and office buildings produce different traffic generation
patterns.

(2) The socioeconomic characteristics of people living in the area;

Socioeconomic characteristics of the people living within the city also influence the
demand for transportation. Lifestyles and values affect how people decide to use
their resources for transportation. For example, a residential area consisting
primarily of high-income workers will generate more trips by automobile per
person than a residential area populated primarily by retirees.

(3) The extent, cost, and quality of available transportation services.

The availability of transportation facilities and services, referred to as the supply,

also affects the demand for travel. Travelers are sensitive to the level of service
provided by alternative transportation modes. When deciding whether to travel at
all or which mode to use, they consider attributes such as travel time, cost,
convenience, comfort, and safety.

The most approach used to forecast travel demand is based on land use and travel
characteristics that provide the basis for the “four-step process” of trip generation,
trip distribution, modal choice, and traffic assignment as illustrated in Figure
below.

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

Information on how, when, and where people are currently traveling is of obvious
importance in the forecasting process. This information is studied to determine the
underlying factors causing people to make certain travel decisions so that models
can be calibrated and used to forecast how people will travel in the future or in
response to changing conditions now.

Study Area

To forecast travel demand, the study area must be delineated into a set of traffic
analysis zones (TAZ) that form the basis for analysis of travel movements within,
into, and out of the urban area. The set of zones can be aggregated into larger units,
called districts.

Zone definition. The urban area is divided into small spatial analytical areas,
similar in concept to census tracts.

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

Generally, transportation analysis zones (TAZs) are defined by:

 Homogeneous land uses, such as residential neighborhoods, central business

districts, and industrial areas.
 Major “traffic generators” such as universities, hospitals, shopping centers,
and airports.
 Natural or human-made geographic boundaries, such as rivers or railroads.

Trips between two different traffic zones are known as interzonal trips, whereas
intrazonal trips are those that start and end within the same zone.

TAZ of Baghdad City

Origin – Destination Matrix (O-D)

To be able to analyze trip-making, the planner needs information on where trips
come from, where they go, by what mode, for what purpose, and characteristics
about the trip maker and activities at the origin and destination of the trip. This
information is termed origin-destination data. Origin-destination survey data are
generally available in sufficient detail and of proper statistical stability to allow
accurate estimates of the model parameters. The home interview survey provides
the most complete and accurate information for computing the parameters.
However, since home interviews have been done in all large cities and are

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

extremely expensive, they are no longer done for large samples. Small-sample
surveys are now done to update past surveys.

The O/D matrix is a large table or spreadsheet that lists all origins as rows and all
destinations as columns. The table entries refer to the number of trips estimated
between each zonal pair. It is important to emphasize that trip distribution makes
no assignment of how traffic is expected to get from one zone to the other (i.e.,
which roads do people choose to get from A to B), but rather estimates the total
expected flow between A and B, independent of the travel path.

O/D studies are very time consuming and labor intensive, O/D surveys are
therefore often limited to key origin destination pairs or used as a tool to calibrate
an estimated O/D table.

Types of Surveys

The Origin-Destination matrix (O-D matrix) contains information about traffic flow
values between all pairs of centroids. The objective of the survey is primarily to
collect the origin and destination trip zones and for this many suitable methods can
be adopted.

1- Household surveys
Trips made by all household members by all modes of transport both within
the study area and leaving/arriving to the area during the survey period; this
survey should include socioeconomic information (income, car ownership,
family size and structure, etc.). This information is very efficient at
generating data that permits the estimation of trip generation and mode split
models; furthermore, data on household travel provides good information on
the distribution of trip lengths in the city, an important element in the
estimation of trip distribution models.

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

2- Roadside interviews
These provide trips not registered in a household survey, especially external-
internal trips. This involves asking questions to a sample of drivers and
passengers of vehicles crossing a particular location. But it should be noted
that at road-side, drivers will not be willing to spend much time for a survey.
3- Cordon and screen-line survey
These provide useful information about external–external and external–
internal trips. Their objective is to determine the number of trips that enter,
leave and/or cross the cordoned area, thus helping to complete the
information coming from the household O–D survey data on people crossing
the study area border, particularly nonresidents of the study area. This
provides useful information about trips from and to external zones. For large
study area, internal cordon line surveying can be conducted. It could be
either recording the license plate number at all the external cordon points or
by post-card method.

Screen lines divide the study area into large natural zones, like either sides of a
river, with few crossing points between them. The procedure for both cordon-line
and screen-line survey are similar to road-side interview.

However, these counts are primarily used for calibration and validation of the
models.

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

Four Step Modelling

Network Geometry
The transportation system consists of networks that represent the available modes
(auto, bus, etc.). The network description is an abstraction of what is actually on the
ground, and as such does not include every local street or collector street in the
area. A network description is developed to describe auto and truck travel, with a
separate description for transit, if transit is a consideration. These descriptions
could include the geometry of the transportation system.

Network geometry includes numbering the intersections (called nodes for

assignment purposes). Numbering the nodes allows us to identify the segments
between them (called links). In transit networks we also identify groups of links
over which specific routes pass (called lines). This geometric description of the
transportation network shows all possible ways that travel can take place between
points in the area.

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

In the network description, zone centroids (centers of activity) are identified; they
are connected to nodes by imaginary links called centroid connectors. Centroids are
used as the points at which trips are "loaded" onto the network.

TRIP GENERATION

Trip generation is the process of determining the number of trips that will begin or
end in each traffic analysis zone within a study area. Since the trips are determined
without regard to destination, they are referred to as trip ends. Each trip has two
ends, and is produced by a traffic zone and attracted to another traffic zone.

For example, a home-to-work trip

would be considered to have a trip end produced in the home zone and attracted to
the work zone.

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

Types of trips

Journey is an out way movement from a point of origin to a point of destination. If

either origin or destination of a trip is the home of the trip maker, then such trips
are called home based trips and the rest of the trips are called non home based trips.

The trips can be classified based on the purpose of the journey as trips for work,
trips for education, trips for shopping, trips for recreation and other trips. Among
these the work and education trips are often referred as mandatory trips and the rest
as discretionary trips. All the daily trips are normally home based trips and
constitute about 80 to 85 percent of trips.

The trip purpose breakdown in most widespread use is as follows,

1. Home-based work — trips between a person's home and place of

employment for the purpose of working.

2. Home-based other — trips between a person's home and any other

destination for any other purpose.

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

3. Non-home-based « trips that have neither end at home, regardless of

purpose. These may include truck and taxi trips.

4. Internal-external trips — trips with one end inside the study area and one
outside the study area.

5. Through trips —trips that have neither end in the study area, but pass
through it.

The second way of classification is based on the time of the day when the trips are
made as peak trips and off peak trips.

The external area is usually subdivided into larger traffic zones. External zones
represent trips that use the study area’s transportation system, but start or end out-
side of the study area itself. External zones are also represented by zone centroids
sometimes called stations.

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

Trip generation models are found to be accurate if separate models are used based
on trip purpose. The rest of the trips, namely non home based trips, being treated
separately.

Trip production is defined as all the trips of a home based or as the origin of the
non home based trips.

Trip generation analysis has two functions:

1- To develop a relationship between trip end production or attraction and land use

2- To use the relationship to estimate the number of trips generated on a near future
date under a new set of land use conditions.

Factors influencing trip generation:

1- Land use is one of the major attributes of trip generation activities, different
uses of land produce different trip generation rates. For example, land
developed for shopping or office could be expected to generate more trips
than that developed for residential use.
2- Family size: there is a relationship between the number frequencies of trips
made from home as against the varying family size, average trip frequency
increases with the increasing persons per household at the rate approximately
0.8 trips per day for each additional person.
3- Auto ownerships: increased auto ownership generates more trips per
household
4- Family income: families with high income generally perform more trips
than the low income household.

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

To illustrate the trip generation process, three methods are considered:

1- Cross-classification (category analysis)

2- Regression analysis, which has been applied to estimate both trip
productions and attractions.
3- Method of trip rate

Trip generation methods use a disaggregated analysis, based on individual sample

units such as persons, households.

Cross-Classification method

Cross-classification is a technique developed by the Federal Highway

Administration (FHWA) to determine the number of trips that begin or end at the
home. The first step is to develop a relationship between socioeconomic measures
and trip production. The two variables most commonly used are average income
and auto ownership. The figure below illustrates the variation in average income

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

within a zone. Other variables that could be considered are household size; the
relationships are developed based on income data and the results of O-D surveys. It
is a disaggregate Models rely on behavioral information for various classes within
the area

Example 1: Developing Trip Generation Curves from Household Data

A travel survey produced the data shown in Table, Twenty households were
interviewed. The table shows the number of trips produced per day for each of the
households (numbered 1 through 20), as well as the corresponding annual
household income and the number of automobiles owned. Based on the data
provided, develop a set of curves showing the number of trips per household versus
income and auto ownership.

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

Solution:

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

80 0 car

70 1 car
2 or more car
60
% of Household

50

40

30

20

10

0
0 20 40 60 80
Income

14

12

10
Trip rate per HH

8
0 car
6
1 car
4 2 car

0
0 20 40 60 80
Income

The trip generation model that has been developed based on survey data can now
be used to estimate the number of home- and non-home-based trips for each trip
purpose.

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

H.W: Develop Trip Generation Curves from the following Household Data

Houshold Trip Income Auto

1 2 4,000 0
2 4 6,000 0
3 10 17,000 2

4 5 11,000 0
5 5 4,500 1
6 15 17,000 3
7 7 9, 500 1
8 4 9,000 0
9 6 7, 000 1
10 13 19,000 3
11 8 18,000 1
12 9 21,000 1
13 9 7, 000 2
14 11 11,000 2
15 10 11,000 2
16 11 13,000 2
17 12 15,000 2
18 8 11,000 1
19 8 13,000 1
20 9 15,000 1

Example 2: Computing Trips Generated in a Suburban Zone

Consider a zone that is located in a suburban area of a city. The population and
income data for the zone are as follows.

Number of dwelling units: 60

Average income per dwelling unit: $44,000

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

Determine the number of trips per day generated in this zone for each trip purpose,
assuming that the characteristics depicted in Figures 12.2 through 12.5 apply in this
situation.

Solution:

The problem is solved in four basic steps.

Figure 12-2 Average zonal income

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

Figure 12-3 Households by Automobile Ownership and Income Category.

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

Step 1: Determine the percentage of households in each economic category. These

results can be obtained by analysis of census data for the area. A typical plot of
average zonal income versus income distribution is shown in Figure 12-2. For an
average zonal income of $44,000, the following distribution is observed.

Income $ Household %
Low 9
Medium 40
High 51

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

Step 2: Determine the distribution of auto ownership per household for each
income category. A typical curve showing percent of households, at each income
level, that own 0, 1, or 2_ autos is shown in Figure 12-3, and the results are listed in
Table below. Table shows that 58% of medium-income families own one auto per
household. Also, from the previous step, we know that a zone, with an average
income of $44,000, contains 40% of households in the medium-income category.
Thus, we can calculate that of the 60 households in that zone, there will be (60) *
(0.40) * (0.58) = 14 medium-income households that own one auto.

Income Auto/ houshold

0 1 2+

Low 54 42 4
Medium 4 58 38
High 2 30 68

Step 3: Determine the number of trips per household per day for each income–auto
ownership category. A typical curve showing the relationship between trips per
household, household income, and auto ownership is shown in Figure 12-4. The
results are listed in Table below.

Income Auto/ houshold

0 1 2+

Low 1 6 7
Medium 2 8 13
High 3 11 15

The table shows that a medium-income household owning one auto will generate
eight trips per day.

Step 4: Calculate the total number of trips per day generated in the zone. This is
done by computing the number of households in each income–auto ownership

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

category, multiplying this result by the number of trips per household, as

determined in Step 3, and summing the result. Thus,

The calculations are shown in Table 12.6. For a zone with 60 households and an
average income of $44,000, the number of trips generated is 666 auto trips/day.

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

Step 5. Determine the percentage of trips by trip purpose. As a final step, we can
calculate the number of trips that are HBW, HBO, and NHB. If these percentages
are 17, 51, and 32, respectively (see Figure 12.5), for the medium-income category,
then the number of trips from the zone for the three trip purposes are 232 * 0.17 =
40, HBW, 232 * 0.51 =118, HBO, and 232 * 0.32 = 74 NHB. (Similar
calculations would be made for other income groups.) The final result, which is left
for the reader to verify, is obtained by using the following percentages: low income
at 15, 55, and 30, and high income at 18, 48, and 34. These yield 118 HBW, 327
HBO, and 221 NHB trips.

HW 2: For the trip characteristics of an urban area shown in the Table below,
determine No. of forecasted trips.

Auto Ownership
0 1 +2
Houshold Size

HH Trips HH Trips HH Trips

1 1200 2520 2560 6144 54 130
2 874 2098 3456 9676 5921 20165
+3 421 1137 2589 8026 8642 33704

No. of forecasted household number

Auto Ownership
Houshold

0 1 +2
Size

1 25 125 3
2 32 175 254
+3 10 89 512

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

2- Regression Analysis

For each of a number of zones a certain number of trip ends - the dependent
variable - are observed and each zone has certain measurable characteristics to
which this trip generation rate may be related. These characteristics XI. X2, etc. are
referred to as the independent variables and are the land-use and socioeconomic
factors which have been previously referred to.

The equation obtained by least squares analysis is of the general form:

Y= bo +b1*X1 +b2*X2+ … bn Xn

where bO is the intercept term or constant.

BO, b1, b2 .... bn are obtained by regression analysis.

Xl , X2 ..... Xn are the independent variables.

In developing regression equations it is assumed that:

(1) All the independent variables are independent of each other.

(2) All the independent variables are normally distributed; if the variable has a
skew distribution often a log transformation is used.

(3) The independent variables are continuous.

A typical equation obtained as follows:

Ys = O.0649Xl - O.0034X3 + O.0066X4 + O.9489X5

where Ys = total trips per household

XI = family size,

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

X3 = residential density,

X4 = total family income,

X5 = cars /household.

It is Aggregate Models and characteristics of area are “aggregated” on an average

basis and resulting trips will, in turn, be on an average basis.

Example :
A multiple linear regression model is developed to predict the number of daily
trips per household based on three independent variables: the household
size, the annual household income, and the number of family members
with an age of 18 or more years. The regression model is given by the
mathematical expression shown below. Use this model to determine the
number of daily trips for a household with a size of six members, four of
which have an age of 18 or more years, if the annual household income is
$50,000.
-5
DTHH = 0.15(HH Size)+ 2*10 (HH Income) +0.25(FM18 )

Where:
DTHH=the total number of daily trips per household
HH Size =the household size (number of family members)
HH Income =the annual household income ($)
FM18=the number of family members with age of 18 or more years

Solution:

⇒
DTHH = 0.15 (6) + 2*10-5* (50000) + 0.25 *(4) = 2.9 daily trips

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

3- Method of Trip Rates

Trips generated at the household end are referred to as productions, and they are
attracted to zones for purposes such as work, shopping, visiting friends, and
medical trips. Thus, an activity unit can be described by measures such as square
feet of floor space or number of employees. Trip generation rates for attraction
zones can be determined from survey data or are tabulated in some of the reference
sources listed at the end of this chapter. Trip attraction rates are illustrated in Table

Example: Computing Trips Generated in an Activity Zone

A commercial center in the downtown contains several retail establishments and

light industries. Employed at the center are 220 retail and 650 non-retail
workers.Determine the number of trips per day attracted to this zone.

Solution: Use the trip generation rates listed in Table 12.7

HBW: (220 * 1.7)+ (650* 1.7)= 1479

HBO: (220 * 5.0) + (650 * 2.0) = 2400

NHB: (220* 3.0)+ (650 * 1.0)= 1310

Total = 5189 trips/day

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

Balancing Trip Productions and Attractions

The result of the trip generation process is the number of trip productions and these
values may not be equal to the number of trip attractions. Trip productions, which
are based on census data, are considered to be more accurate than trip attractions.
Accordingly, trip attractions are usually modified so that they are equal to trip
productions.

Table 12.8a illustrates how adjustments are made. The trip generation process has
produced 600 home-based work productions for zones 1 through 3. However, the
same process has produced 800 home-based work attractions. To rectify this
imbalance, each attraction value for zones 1 through 3 is reduced by a factor equal
to 600/800, or 0.75. The result is shown in Table 12.8a in the column “Balanced
HBW Trips” Now both productions and attractions are equal. A similar procedure
is used for HBO trips.

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

TRIP DISTRIBUTION
Trip distribution is a process of distributing the estimated trips to traffic analysis
zones (TAZs) by which the trips generated in one zone are allocated to other zones
in the study area. These trips may be within the study area (internal-internal) or
between the study area and areas outside the study area (internal external).

Several basic methods are used for trip distribution. Among these:

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

 The gravity model,

 Growth factor models,

The gravity model is preferred because it uses the attributes of the transportation
system and land-use characteristics and has been calibrated extensively for many
urban areas.

Growth factor models, which were used more widely in the 1950s and 1960s,
require that the origin-destination matrix be known for the base (or current) year, as
well as an estimate of the number of future trip ends in each zone.

Gravity Model
The gravity model is an analytical methodology to estimate the productions and
attractions between each zonal pair in the trip distribution step. It is most applicable
for larger studies and networks, and can be quite data intensive to complete. The
underlying concept for the gravity model mirrors principles in physics, where two
masses attract one another, and where the magnitude of that attraction is
proportional to the size of the mass. In other words, larger zones (or more precisely,
zones with more activity or higher development density) attract more trips than
smaller zones (less activity and a lower development density). That physics-based
gravity model is further calibrated by the relative travel time between zones and
socioeconomic characteristics. Specifically, the gravity model estimates the number
of trips between each origin zone, i, and each destination zone, j, and states that the
number of trips between the two zones is directly proportional to the number of trip
attractions generated by the zone of destination and inversely proportional to a
function of time of travel between the two zones. And is a function of the following
characteristics:

• The number of trips produced in each zone, Pi

• The number of trips attracted to each zone, Aj

• A friction factor for each ij zonal pair that is a function of the travel time between
those zones, Fij, since F values decrease as travel time increases.

• A socioeconomic factor for each ij zonal pair that can be used to calibrate the
desire of travelers to travel between those zones, Kij

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

The general form of the gravity model is shown in the following equation, followed
by an example.

where

Qij= trips from zone i to zone j

Pi =trips produced

Aj =trips attracted

Fij =friction factor (typically the inverse of distance or travel time)

Kij=socioeconomic factor (calibrated)

The gravity model has to be applied in an iterative fashion for both the total
attractions and productions for each zone to match with the entered data. In the first
iteration, the productions for each zone will be balanced, but the attractions will
likely differ from the entered trip generation data. In repeated iterations, the results
of one iteration are fed as input to the next iteration, until a desirable match is
obtained.

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Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

Example 1:
A study area consisting of three zones. The number of productions and attractions
has been computed for each zone and the average travel times between each zone
have been determined. Both are shown in Tables 12.9 and 12.10. Assume Kij is the
same unit value for all zones. Finally, the F values have been calibrated as shown in
Table 12.11 for each travel time increment. Determine the number of zone-to-zone
trips through two iterations.

Solution:

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

From Table 12.10 select travel time and selecting the correct F value from Table
12.11. For example, travel time is 2 min between zones 1 and 2. The corresponding
F value is 52.)

The results summarized in Table 12.12 represent a singly constrained gravity

model. This constraint is that the sum of the productions in each zone is equal to
the number of productions given in the problem statement. However, the number of
attractions estimated in the trip distribution phase differs from the number of
attractions given. For zone 1, the correct number is 300, whereas the computed
value is 379. Values for zone 2 are 270 versus 210, and for zone 3, they are 180
versus 161.

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

To create a doubly constrained gravity model where the computed attractions equal
the given attractions, calculate the adjusted attraction factors according to the
formula

To produce a doubly constrained gravity model, repeat the trip distribution

computations using modified attraction values so that the numbers attracted will be
increased or reduced as required. For zone 1, for example, the estimated attractions
were too great. Therefore, the new attraction factors are adjusted downward by
multiplying the original attraction value by the ratio of the original to estimated
attraction values.

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

Apply the gravity model (Eq. 12.3) for all iterations to calculate zonal trip
interchanges using the adjusted attraction factors obtained from the preceding
iteration. In practice, the gravity model becomes

where Tijk is the trip interchange between i and j for iteration k, and Ajk = Aj when
k = 1. Subscript j goes through one complete cycle every time k changes, and i goes
through one complete cycle every time j changes. This formula is enclosed in
parentheses and subscripted to indicate that the complete process is performed for
each trip purpose. Perform a second iteration using the adjusted attraction values.

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

The results are summarized in Table 12.13. Note that, in each case, the sum of the
attractions is now much closer to the given value. The process will be continued
until there is a reasonable agreement (within 5%) between the A that is estimated
using the gravity model and the values that are furnished in the trip generation
phase.

H.W:

From Zone To Zone Attractions Aj Impedance F(t)ij

(minutes)
3 1 1080 20 6
3 2 531 7 29
3 3 76 5* 45
3 4 47 10 18
3
5 82 25 4

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

Example 2: A new office park is expected to generate 1500 homebound trips in

the pm peak hour. Analysts expect the trips to terminate in four residential zones.
Using a gravity model, estimate the number of trips to go from the office park to
zone 3 during the pm peak hour.

Solution

This problem is best solved by setting up a table to calculate the trips from the
office park to each zone. In this example, Pi is equal to 1500 for all rows in the
table. The table shows, attractions for each destination zone, estimates friction
factors as the inverse of travel time, and gives the socioeconomic factor. Those
three terms are used to estimate the A*F*K product for each destination zone,
which are then used to get the estimate of the number of trips for each zonal pair.

The total number of trips estimated from the office park to zone 3 is 146 trips.

Growth Factor Models

Trip distribution can also be computed when the only data available are the origins
and destinations between each zone for the current or base year and the trip

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

generation values for each zone for the future year. This method was widely used
when O-D data were available but the gravity model and calibrations for F factors
had not yet become operational. Growth factor models are used primarily to
distribute trips between zones in the study area and zones in cities external to the
study area. Since they rely upon an existing O-D matrix, they cannot be used to
forecast traffic between zones where no traffic currently exists. Further, the only
measure of travel friction is the amount of current travel. Thus, the growth factor
method cannot reflect changes in travel time between zones, as does the gravity
model.

List consider the matrix in the table below 4/4 zone based, if we know that the
growth in traffic is expeted to grow by 20%. What will be the expected future
matrix?

1 2 3 4
1 5 50 100 200 355
2 50 5 100 300 455
3 50 100 5 100 255
4 100 200 250 20 570
205 355 455 620 1635
Since the growth is expected to be 20% then g=1.2

1 2 3 4
1 6 60 120 240 426
2 60 6 120 360 546
3 60 120 6 120 306
4 120 240 300 24 634
246 426 546 744 1662

1- Fratar method

The most popular growth factor model is the Fratar method, which is a
mathematical formula that proportions future trip generation estimates to each zone
as a function of the product of the current trips between the two zones Tij and the
growth factor of the attracting zone Gj. Thus,

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

Example Forecasting Trips Using the Fratar Model A study area consists of four
zones (A, B, C, and D). An O-D survey indicates that the number of trips between
each zone is as shown in Table 12.17. Planning estimates for the area indicate that
in five years the number of trips in each zone will increase by the growth factor
shown in Table 12.18 and that trip generation will be increased to the amounts
shown in the last column of the table. Determine the number of trips between each
zone for future conditions.

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

Solution:

Using the Fratar formula, calculate the number of trips between zones A and B, A
and C, A and D, and so forth. Note that two values are obtained for each zone pair
(that is, TAB and TBA). These values are averaged, yielding a value for TAB= (TAB+
TBA) /2. The calculations are as follows.

Similar calculations yield

TAC = 141 TAD = 124 TBC = 372 TCD = 430

The results of the preceding calculations have produced the first estimate (or
iteration) of future trip distribution and are shown in Table 12.19. The totals for
each zone do not equal the values of future trip generation. For example, the trip
generation in zone A is estimated as 693 trips, whereas the actual value is 720 trips.
Similarly, the estimate for zone B is 800 trips, whereas the actual value is 770 trips.
Proceed with a second iteration in which the input data are the numbers of trips

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

between zones as previously calculated. Also, new growth factors are computed as
the ratio of the trip generation expected to occur in five years and the trip
generation estimated in the preceding calculation. The values are given in Table
12.20. The calculations for the second iteration are left to the reader to complete
and the process can be repeated as many times as needed until the estimate and
actual trip generation values are close in agreement.

∗ .
TAB= 693*1.04* = 439
( ∗ . ∗ . ∗ . )

∗ .
TBA= 800*0.96* =411
∗ . ∗ .

TAB=TBA= (439+411)/2=425

Page 56
 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

2-The Furness Method

Example: A 3 by 3 trip table representing a total of 25 trips is shown in the

following table, which is for the base year:

O/D 1 2 3 Total

1 1 4 2 7
2 6 2 3 11
3 4 1 2 7
Total 11 7 7 25
The next table indicates the origin and destination growth factors for the horizon
year.

Zone 1 2 3
Origin factor (production) 2.0 3.0 4.0
Destination factor (attraction) 3.0 4.0 2.0
Use the Furness technique to distribute the trips in the horizon year.

Solution

1 2 3 Total
1 X X X 14
2 X X X 33
3 X X X 28
Tolal 33 28 14 75

1 2 3 Actual Estimated Row

total total factor
1 3 16 4 14 23 0.61
2 18 8 6 33 32 1.03
3 12 4 4 28 20 1.4
Tolal 33 28 14 75 75

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College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

1 2 3 Total

1 2 10 2 14
2 19 8 6 33
3 16 6 6 28
Estimated Tolal 37 24 14 75
Actual total 33 28 14
Column factor 0.89 1.17 1

1 2 3 Actual Estimated Row

total total factor
1 1.78 11.7 2 14 15.48 0.9
2 16.9 9.36 6 33 32.26 1.02
3 14.24 7.02 6 28 27.26 1.03
Tolal 32.92 28.08 14 75 75
Once again the row totals and column totals are calculated and the process goes through for a
second time, producing a matrix that is good enough for planning purposes.

1 2 3 Total

1 2 10 2 14
2 17 10 6 33
3 15 7 6 28
Estimated Tolal 34 27 14 75
Actual total 33 28 14
Column factor 0.97 1.04 1.00
It is possible to continue for one more iteration and get the following result:

1 2 3 Total

1 2 10 2 14
2 17 10 6 33
3 15 7 6 28
Actual total 33 28 14 75

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

3.Mode choice

is the process by which the analyst determines the amount of travel that will be
made by using each avail¬able mode of transportation in the urban area.
Determining the preference of people within zones to make a trip by personal
vehicle, public transportation, bicycling, walking, etc., and dividing the total trips
among those modes. It determines the number (or percentage) of trips between
zones that are made by automobile and by transit. The selection of one mode or
another is a complex process that depends on factors such as the traveler’s income,
the availability of transit service or auto ownership, and the relative advantages of
each mode in terms of travel time, cost, comfort, convenience, and safety. Mode
choice models attempt to replicate the relevant characteristics of the traveler, the
transportation system, and the trip itself, such that a realistic estimate of the number
of trips by each mode for each zonal pair is obtained.

Depending on the level of detail required, three types of transit estimating

procedures are used:

 Direct generation of transit trips,

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

 Use of trip end models,

 Trip interchange modal split models.

FACTORS THAT AFFECT MODE USAGE

• characteristics of the traveler — the trip maker;

• characteristics of the trip; and

• characteristics of the transportation system.

Direct Generation Models

Transit trips can be generated directly, by estimating either total person trips or
auto driver trips. Figure 12.8 is a graph that illustrates the relationship between
transit trips per day per 1000 population and persons per acre versus auto
ownership. As density of population increases, it can be expected that transit riding
will also increase for a given level of auto ownership.

Figure 12.8 Number of Transit Trips by Population Density and Automobile

Ownership per Household

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

Example: Determine the number of transit trips per day in a zone using Figure
12.8 which has 5000 people living on 50 acres. The auto ownership is 40% of zero
autos per household and 60% of one auto per household.

Solution: Calculate the number of persons per acre: 5000 / 50= 100. Then
determine the number of transit trips per day per 1000 persons (from Figure 12.8)
to calculate the total of all transit trips per day for the zone.

Zero autos /HH: 510 trips /day/1000 population

One auto /HH: 250 trips /day/1000 population

Total Transit Trips: (0.40)(510)(5) + (0.60)(250)(5) =

1020+ 750 = 1770 transit trips per day

This method assumes that the attributes of the system are not relevant. Factors such
as travel time, cost, and convenience are not considered. These so-called “pre trip”
distribution models apply when transit service is poor and riders are “captive,” or
when transit service is excellent and “choice” clearly favors transit. When highway
and transit modes “compete” for auto riders, then system factors are considered.

Trip End Models

To determine the percentage of total person or auto trips that will use transit,
estimates are made prior to the trip distribution phase based on land-use or
socioeconomic characteristics of the zone.

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College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

Figure 12.9

This method does not incorporate the quality of service. The procedure follows:

1. Generate total person trip productions and attractions by trip purpose.

2. Compute the urban travel factor.

3. Determine the percentage of these trips by transit using a mode choice curve.

4. Apply auto occupancy factors.

5. Distribute transit and auto trips separately.

The mode choice model shown in Figure 12.9 is based on two factors: households
per auto and persons per square mile. The product of these variables is called the
urban travel factor (UTF). Percentage of travel by transit will increase in an S curve
fashion as the UTF increases.

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

Example:

The total number of productions in a zone is 10,000 trips/day. The number of

households per auto is 1.80, and residential density is 15,000 persons/square mile.
Determine the percent of residents who can be expected to use transit.

Trip Interchange Models

In this method, system level-of-service variables are considered, including relative

travel time, relative travel cost, economic status of the trip maker, and relative
travel service. An example of this procedure is illustrated using the QRS method
which takes account of service parameters in estimating mode choice. The QRS
method is based on the following relationship

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

In-vehicle time is time spent traveling in the vehicle, and excess time is time spent
traveling but not in the vehicle, including waiting for the train or bus and walking
to the station. The impedance value is determined for each zone pair and represents
a measure of the expenditure required to make the trip by either auto or transit.

The data required for estimating mode choice include

(1) distance between zones by auto and transit,

(2) transit fare,

(3) out-of-pocket auto cost,

(4) parking cost,

(5) highway and transit speed,

(6) exponent values, b,

(7) median income, and

(8) excess time,

which includes the time required to walk to a transit vehicle and time waiting or
transferring. Assume that the time worked per year is 120,000 min.

Travel time is usually divided into two groups:

 Riding time is the amount of time spent in the vehicle; and

 Excess time is the amount of time spent outside the vehicle (walking,
parking, waiting, transferring, etc.).

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

Thus, the mode choice of travel by transit between zones S and D is 58.4%, and by
highway the value is 41.6%. These percentages are applied to the estimated trip
distribution values to determine the number of trips by each mode. If for example,
the number of work trips between zones S and D was computed to be 500, then the
number by auto would be 500 *0.416 =208, and by transit, the number of trips
would be 500 * 0.584 = 292.

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

Logit Models

An alternative approach used in transportation demand analysis is to consider the

relative utility of each mode as a summation of each modal attribute. Then the
choice of a mode is expressed as a probability distribution. For example, assume
that the utility of each mode is

If two modes, auto (A) and transit (T), are being considered, the probability of
selecting the auto mode A can be written as

This form is called the logit model, as illustrated in Figure 12.10 and provides a
convenient way to compute mode choice. Choice models are utilized within the
urban transportation planning process, in transit marketing studies, and to directly
estimate travel demand.

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

Figure 12-10

Example: Use of Logit Model to Compute Mode Choice, The utility functions for
auto and transit are as follows:

where

T1 = total travel time (minutes)

T2= waiting time (minutes)

C = cost (cents)

The travel characteristics between two zones are as follows:

Solution: Use the logit model to determine the percent of travel in the zone by auto
and transit.

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

Example

The calibrated utility functions for auto and transit are:

Auto: Va=-0.3-0.04X-0.1Y-0.03C
Transit: Vt= -0.04X-0.1Y-0.03C where
Vi= utility function of mode i
X in vehicle travel time
Y= out of vehicle travel time
C= cost of travel per income
A traffic zone has the following characteristics
Auto Transit
In vehicle travel time min 15 20
Out of vehicle time min 5 10
Travel Cost cents 300 75
What is the probability that a person with income of 10000 $ will travel by transit?

Solution:
Va= -1.4
Vt=-2.6

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

The probability of the trip maker taking transit is 23%

Example: A calibrated utility function for travel in a medium sized city by
automobile , bus, and light rail is U= a-0.002X1 -0.05X2
Where X1 is the cost of travel(cents) and X2 is the travel time(min), calculate the
modal split for the given values:
Mode a X1 X2
Automobile -0.3 130 25
Bus -0.35 75 35
Light rail -0.4 90 40

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

Occupancy rate

After we figure out trips by auto and those by transit, we use, occupancy rate to

convert person trips to the number of vehicles trips before proceeding to the next

model (trip assignment).

30,000 persons use cars per day

e.g.  25000 cars / day
1.2 persons per car

15000 person use transit per day

 500 bus / day
30 persons per bus

 Total no. of vehicles per day or

“Volume” = 25500 veh/day

4. Trip assignment:

The final step in the transportation forecasting process is to determine the actual
street and highway routes that will be used and the number of automobiles and
buses that can be expected on each highway segment. The procedure used to
determine the expected traffic volumes is known as traffic assignment. Since the
numbers of trips by transit and auto that will travel between zones are known from
the previous steps in the process, each trip O-D can be assigned to a highway or
transit route. The sum of the results for each segment of the system results in a
forecast of the average daily or peak hour traffic volumes that will occur on the
urban transportation system that serves the study area.

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

Assigning all the trips to the transportation system to identify actual routes taken,
consider capacity constraints on the network, and to ultimately determine the
impact to the transportation network.

To carry out a trip assignment, the following data are required:

(1) number of trips that will be made from one zone to another (this information
was determined in the trip distribution phase),

(2) available highway or transit routes between zones,

(3) how long it will take to travel on each route,

(4) a decision rule (or algorithm) that explains how motorists or transit users select
a route, and

(5) external trips that were not considered in the previous trip generation and
distribution steps.

Figure 2-13 Simple network for assignment illustration

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

for example, the simplified 10-zone network in Figure 2.13. If evaluating a trip
with origin in zone 1 and destination in zone 4, the path is represented by link 1-4
that connects the two zones. All attributes of link 1-4 are translated to the path for
analysis. But while link 1-4 has a clear direct path, other zonal pairs have multiple
paths. For example, take the O/D pair for links 1 and 7. In this case, one potential
path is “1-4-4-7.” But several alternate paths exist in this case, including “1-5-5-7,”
“1-2-2-5-5-7,” or “1-4-4-6-6-7.” Therefore, the decision of which path drivers will
take becomes a function of the attributes of each path, which, in turn, are estimated
from the aggregated attributes of each link sequence.

For the second zonal pair example, the path travel times are 5 min for “1-4-4-7,” 4
min for “1-5-5-7,” 7 min for “1-2-2-5-5-7,” and 6 min for “1-4-4-6-6-7.” So in this
case, path “1-5-5-7” produces the lowest travel time at 4 min.

H.W1: the following 16-node network with travel times on each link shown for
each node (zone) pair. The link and node network is representative of the road and
street system. Determine the shortest travel path from node 1 (home node) to all
other zones.

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

Example1: The links that are on the minimum path for each of the nodes
connecting node 1 are shown in Table 12.23. Also shown are the number of auto
trips between zone 1 and all other zones. From these results, the number of trips on
each link is determined.

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

To illustrate, link 1 to 2 is used by trips from node 1 to nodes 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 11, l2,

15, and 16. Thus, the trips between these node pairs are assigned to link 1 to 2 as
illustrated in Table 12.23. The volumes are 50, 75, 80, 60, 30, 80, 25, 20, and 85 for
a total of 505 trips on link 1 to 2 from node 1.

Solution: Calculate the number of trips that should be assigned to each link of
those that have been generated in node 1 and distributed to nodes 2 through 16
(Table 12.24). A similar process of network loading would be completed for all
other zone pairs.

Capacity-Constrained Assignment

There are several problems with the shortest path and all-or-nothing assignment.
For example, the assignment doesn’t take into account that the total traffic demand
assigned to a particular link may result in increases in travel time on that link,
thereby increasing link travel time and decreasing its desirability in the assignment.

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

In extreme cases, of course, the demand may actually exceed the capacity of a link,
making it impossible to process the full demand from all zones. A capacity
constrained assignment takes these travel time increases and link capacity
constraints into consideration. A capacity constrained assignment applies a
relationship between the volume-to-capacity ratio (v/c) on a link and the resulting
travel time to each link. The higher the v/c ratio estimated, the higher is the
resulting effect on link travel time. The most commonly used relationship was
developed by the U.S. Bureau of Public Roads and is referred to as the BPR
function. The BPR formula for estimating link travel time under capacity constraint
is as follows:

The form of the equation results in an increase in the estimated link travel time as a
function of link capacity and v/c ratio. The link travel time is equal to 1.15 times
the free-flow travel time at capacity (v/c=1) and increases exponentially past the
capacity. The application of the capacity-constrained assignment is iterative. After
an initial (shortest path) assignment, the link travel times are updated based on the
BPR function or another impedance curve. The assignment is then repeated with
the updated link travel times until an equilibrium is reached. Equilibrium in this
case means that the assigned flows and link sequences no longer change, and travel
times on all links are thus stable between successive assignments.

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 Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

Example:

The auto trips between zones 1 and 2 is 2000, and there are three available routes A, B, and C
between the two (as shown in Figure). Determine the number of trips assigned to route A
using the minimum time path with the capacity restraint method in the frst iteration at a
volume increment of 500 trips if the specifc parameters for the highways between the two
zones for capacity restraint are as given in Table 2.98.

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Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

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Mustansiriyah University Dr. Noor Moutaz Asmael
College of Engineering 4th Year Stage
Highway and Transportation Eng. Dept. Subject: Transportation Planning

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