VanEck’s 10 Crypto Predictions for 2025

December 13, 2024

READ TIME 10+ MIN

Matthew Sigel
Head of Digital Assets Research
Patrick Bush
Senior Investment Analyst, Digital Assets

We outline our top 10 Crypto Predictions for 2025.

Please note that VanEck may have a position(s) in the digital

asset(s) described below.

Before we get into our 2025 predictions, let’s take a moment to review
how our 2024 calls stacked up. Out of 15 predictions made back in
December 2023, we score ourselves 8.5/15. A 0.566 batting average
might not be perfect, but it’s enough to keep us in the game. With Bitcoin
(BTC) smashing $100k and Ethereum (ETH) breaking $4k, even some of
our misses were part of a year to remember.

Crypto Predictions Review for 2024

1. Debut of spot BTC ETP s – (1 point)

2. Bitcoin halving proceeds smoothly - (1 point)

3. Bitcoin reaches all-time high in 4Q2024 - (1 point)

4. Ethereum remains #2 to bitcoin - (1 point)

 5. L2s dominate Ethereum activity (but L2 TVL still below Ethereum’s)
– (0.5 points)

6. Stablecoin market cap hits record high - (1 point)

7. Decentralized exchanges attain record share of spot volumes - (1

point)

8. SOL outperforms ETH - (1 point)

9. DePIN network adoption grows - (1 point)

Now, let’s get into the main event: our crypto predictions for 2025.

Top 10 Crypto Predictions for 2025

1. Crypto bull market hits a medium-term peak in Q1, sets new
highs in Q4

2. U.S. embraces bitcoin with strategic reserve(s) and increased

crypto adoption

3. Value of tokenized securities exceeds $50 billion

4. Stablecoins daily settlement volumes reach $300 billion

5. AI agents’ onchain activity surpasses 1 million agents

6. Bitcoin layer-2s reach 100,000 BTC in total value locked (TVL)

7. Ethereum blob space generates $1 billion in fees

8. DeFi hits all-time highs with $4 trillion DEX volumes and $200B
TVL

9. NFT market recovery with trading volumes reaching $30

billion

10. DApp tokens narrow the performance gap with L1 tokens

1. Crypto bull market hits a medium-term peak in Q1,

sets new highs in Q4
We believe the crypto bull market will persist through 2025, reaching its
first peak in the first quarter. At the cycle’s apex, we project Bitcoin (BTC)
to be valued at around $180,000, with Ethereum (ETH) trading above
$6,000. Other prominent projects, such as Solana (SOL) and Sui (SUI),
could exceed $500 and $10, respectively.
Following this first peak, we anticipate a 30% retracement in BTC, with
altcoins facing sharper declines of up to 60% as the market consolidates
during the summer. However, a recovery is likely in the fall, with major
tokens regaining momentum and reclaiming previous all-time highs by
the end of the year. To gauge when the market is nearing its top, we are
monitoring these key signals:

Sustained High Funding Rates: When traders borrow to bet on

BTC price increases, they are willing to pay funding rates exceeding
10% for three months or more, which indicates speculative excess.

BTC Perps Funding > 10% For Months Would be Bearish

BTC PRICE Funding Rate BTC 30 Day MA

Sources: Glass Node as of 12/8/2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Not intended as a
recommendation to buy or sell any securities named herein.
 Excessive Unrealized Profits: If the proportion of BTC holders
sitting on significant paper gains (a profit-to-cost ratio of 70% or
higher) stabilizes, it suggests market euphoria.

Overvalued Market Cap Relative to Realized Value: When MVRV

(market value to realized value) scores exceed 5, it shows BTC
prices are far above average purchase prices, often signaling
overheated conditions.

Declining Bitcoin Dominance: If Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto

market drops below 40%, it implies a speculative shift into riskier
altcoins, a classic late-cycle behavior.

Mainstream Speculation: A flood of texts from non-crypto-savvy

friends asking about questionable projects is a reliable signal of
speculative mania near the top.

These indicators have historically been reliable signals of market

exuberance and will guide our outlook as we navigate 2025’s anticipated
market cycles.

Example: ‘Top Signal’ text message from an acquaintance from 5 years ago.

2. U.S. embraces bitcoin with strategic reserve(s) and

increased crypto adoption
The election of Donald Trump has already injected significant
momentum into the crypto market, driven by his administration's
appointments of crypto-friendly leaders to pivotal positions, including VP
JD Vance, National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, Commerce Secretary
Howard Lutnick, Treasury Secretary Mary Bessent, Securities and
Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Paul Atkins, Federal Deposit Insurance
Corporation (FDIC) Chair Jelena McWilliams, and HHS Secretary RFK Jr,
and more. These appointments signal not just the end of anti-crypto
policies, such as the systematic de-banking of crypto companies and
their founders, but also the start of a policy framework that positions
Bitcoin as a strategic asset.

Crypto ETPs: in-kind creations, staking, and new spot approvals

New SEC leadership, or possibly the CFTC, will approve multiple new spot
crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) in the U.S., including the VanEck
Solana offering. Ethereum ETP functionality expands to include staking,
further enhancing its utility for holders, while both Ethereum and Bitcoin
ETPs support in-kind creations/redemptions. The repeal of SEC Rule SAB
121, either by the SEC or Congress, will pave the way for banks and
brokers to custody spot crypto, further integrating digital assets into
traditional financial infrastructure.

Sovereign bitcoin adoption: federal, state, and mining expansion

We predict that by 2025, either the federal government or at least one

U.S. state—likely Pennsylvania, Florida, or Texas—will establish a Bitcoin
reserve. Federally, this is more likely to occur through an executive order
utilizing the Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF), though
bipartisan legislation remains a wildcard. Simultaneously, state
governments may act independently, viewing Bitcoin as a hedge against
fiscal uncertainty or a tool to attract crypto investment and innovation.

On the Bitcoin mining side, the number of countries mining Bitcoin with
government resources is expected to reach double digits (currently at
seven) as BRICS adoption grows. This trend is fueled by Russia’s stated
intent to settle international trade in crypto, highlighting Bitcoin's
increasing importance in global economic strategies.

Number of Countries Mining Bitcoin with

Government Resources
Source: VanEck Research as of 12/2024.

We expect this pro-Bitcoin stance to ripple across the broader U.S.

crypto ecosystem. The share of global crypto developers based in the
U.S. will rise from 19% to 25% as regulatory clarity and incentives draw
talent and companies back. Meanwhile, U.S.-based Bitcoin mining will
flourish, with the U.S. share of global mining hash rate increasing from
28% in 2024 to 35% by the end of 2025, driven by cheap energy and
potentially favorable tax policies. Together, these trends will solidify
America’s leadership in the global Bitcoin economy.

U.S.-Listed Company’s Share of Bitcoin Hash Rate to

Reach 35%
 Actual Predicted

Source: JP Morgan, VanEck Research s of 12/6/2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Corporate bitcoin holdings: poised to surge 43%

In terms of corporate adoption, we expect companies to continue

accumulating Bitcoin from retail holders. Currently, 68 public companies
hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets, a number we project to reach 100
by 2025. Notably, we boldly predict that the total Bitcoin held by private
and public companies—currently 765,000 BTC—will surpass Satoshi
Nakamoto's holdings of 1.1 million BTC by next year. This implies a
remarkable growth rate of 43% in corporate Bitcoin holdings over the
coming year.
Gold vs. Bitcoin Ownership: Room for Corporates and
Governments to Grow

Gold Bitcoin

Source: VanEck Research as of 12/2024.

3. The value of tokenized securities exceeds

$50 billion

Onchain Securities Grew 61% in 2024

 Asset-Based Finance Corporate Bonds Equities
Government Securities Private Equities Private Funds
Private Credit

Sources: RWA.xyz, Defillama as of 12/6/2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Crypto rails promise a better financial system through improved

efficiency, decentralization, and greater transparency. We believe that
2025 will be the year that tokenized securities take off. Already, there is
~$12B worth of tokenized securities on blockchains, with the majority
($9.5B) being tokenized private credit securities listed on the Figure’s
semi-permissioned blockchain called Provenance.

In the future, we see enormous potential for tokenized securities to

launch on public chains. We theorize that there are many incentives for
investors to push for tokenized equity or debt securities launched
exclusively onchain. In the next year, we project that entities like the
DTCC will enable tokenized assets that seamlessly transition between
public blockchains and private, closed infrastructure. This dynamic will
result in standards for performing AML/KYC for on-chain investors. As a
wildcard bet, we forecast that Coinbase will take the unprecedented step
of tokenizing COIN stock and deploying it to its BASE blockchain.

4. Stablecoins daily settlement volumes reach

$300 billion

Monthly Stablecoin Transfers (USD) Were Up 180% YoY in

2024

Source: Artemis XYZ as of 12/6/2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Stablecoins will leapfrog their niche role in crypto trading to become a

core part of global commerce. By the end of 2025, we project stablecoins
will settle $300B daily transfers—equivalent to 5% of DTCC’s current
volumes, up from ~$100B daily in November 2024. Their adoption by
major tech companies (think Apple and Google) and payment networks
(Visa, Mastercard) will redefine the economics of payments.

Beyond trading, the remittance market will explode. U.S.-Mexico

stablecoin transfers, for instance, could grow 5x, from $80M to $400M
monthly. Why? Speed, cost savings, and the growing trust of millions
who see stablecoins not as experiments but as practical tools. For all the
talk of blockchain adoption, stablecoins are its Trojan Horse.

5. AI agents’ onchain activity surpasses 1

million agents

Total Revenue for AI Agents is $8.7M in 5 Weeks

 Total Agents Created Revenue Per Day

Sources: Dune @jdhpyer as of 12/6/2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results

One of the most compelling narratives we believe will translate into

massive traction in 2025 is AI Agents. AI agents are specialized AI bots
that direct users to achieve outcomes such as “maximizing yield” or
“spurring X/Twitter engagement.” The agents optimize these outcomes
by utilizing their abilities to change their strategies autonomously. AI
agents are often fed data and trained to specialize in one domain.
Currently, protocols like Virtuals give anyone the tools to create an AI
agent to perform on-chain tasks. Virtuals allow non-experts to access
decentralized AI agent contributors such as fine-tuners, dataset
providers, and model developers so that non-technical people can create
their own AI agents. The result will be the enormous proliferation of
agents their creators can lease out to generate income.
The current focus of agent building has been DeFi, but we believe that AI
agents will transcend financial activities. Agents can be employed to act
as social media influencers, computer players in gaming, and interactive
companions/helpers in consumer applications. Agents have already
become important X/Twitter influencers, such as Bixby and Terminal of
Truths, who reached 92k and 197k followers, respectively. As such, we
believe the enormous potential for agents will result in the birth of over
1 million new agents in 2025.

6. Bitcoin layer-2s reach 100,000 BTC in total value

locked (TVL)

Bitcoin L2s TVLs Reach 30k BTC, 600% Increase YTD 2024

CORE Bitlayer BSquared BOB Rootstock

AILayer Merlin Stacks
Sources: Defillama as of 12/6/2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Not intended as a
recommendation to buy or sell any securities named herein.

We are closely monitoring the emergence of Bitcoin layer-2 (L2)

blockchains, which hold immense potential for transforming Bitcoin's
ecosystem. Scaling Bitcoin enables these L2 solutions to enable lower
latency and higher transaction throughput, addressing the limitations of
the base layer. Moreover, Bitcoin L2s enhance Bitcoin’s capabilities by
introducing smart contract functionality, which can power a robust
decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem built around Bitcoin.

Currently, Bitcoin can be moved off the Bitcoin blockchain to smart

contract platforms through bridged or wrapped BTC, which rely on third-
party systems prone to hacks and security vulnerabilities. Bitcoin L2
solutions aim to address these risks by offering frameworks that
integrate directly with Bitcoin's base layer, minimizing reliance on
centralized intermediaries. While liquidity constraints and adoption
hurdles remain, Bitcoin L2s promise to enhance security and
decentralization, giving BTC holders greater confidence to use their
Bitcoin in decentralized ecosystems actively.

As shown in the chart, Bitcoin L2 solutions have experienced explosive

growth in 2024, with total value locked (TVL) surpassing 30,000 BTC—a
600% increase year-to-date, amounting to approximately $3 billion.
Currently, over 75 Bitcoin L2 projects are in development, though only a
select few are likely to achieve significant adoption over the long term.

This rapid growth reflects strong demand from BTC holders seeking yield
generation and broader utility for their assets. Bitcoin will also become
an integral part of DeFi as chain abstraction technology and Bitcoin L2s
mature into usable products for end users. For instance, platforms like
Ika on Sui or Near’s chain abstraction used by Infinex highlight how
innovative multi-chain solutions will enhance Bitcoin’s interoperability
with other ecosystems.

By enabling secure and efficient on-chain borrowing, lending, and other

permissionless DeFi solutions, Bitcoin L2s and abstraction technology
will transform Bitcoin from a passive store of value into an active
participant in decentralized ecosystems. As adoption scales, these
technologies unlock substantial opportunities for on-chain liquidity,
cross-chain innovation, and a more integrated financial future.

7. Ethereum blob space generates $1 billion in fees

Ethereum Blobs Posted Per Day

Sources: Dune @hildobby as of 12/6/2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The Ethereum community is actively debating whether Ethereum

accrues sufficient value from its Layer-2 (L2) networks through Blob
Space, a critical component of its scaling roadmap. Blob Space serves as
a specialized data layer where L2s submit a compressed history of their
transactions to Ethereum, paying fees in ETH on a per-blob basis. While
this architecture underpins Ethereum’s scalability, L2s currently remit
minimal value to the Mainnet, achieving gross margins of approximately
90%. This has sparked concerns that Ethereum’s economic value could
shift too heavily toward L2s, leaving the base layer underutilized.

Despite a recent slowdown in Blob Space growth, we project a sharp

expansion in its usage by 2025, driven by three key factors:

1. Explosive L2 Adoption: Transaction volumes on Ethereum L2s are

growing at an annualized rate exceeding 300% as users migrate to
lower-cost, high-throughput environments for DeFi, gaming, and
social applications. The proliferation of consumer-facing dApps on
L2s will significantly increase the demand for Blob Space as more
transactions flow back to Ethereum for final settlement.

2. Rollup Optimizations: Advances in rollup technology, such as

improved data compression and reduced costs for posting data to
Blob Space, will encourage L2s to store more transaction data on
Ethereum, unlocking higher throughput without sacrificing
decentralization.

3. Introduction of High-Fee Use Cases: The rise of enterprise-grade

applications, zk-rollup-powered financial solutions, and tokenized
real-world assets will drive high-value transactions, prioritizing
security and immutability, increasing willingness to pay Blob Space
fees.

By the end of 2025, we project that Blob Space fees will exceed $1
billion, up from negligible levels today. This growth will cement
Ethereum’s role as the ultimate settlement layer for decentralized
applications while reinforcing its ability to capture value from its rapidly
expanding L2 ecosystem. Ethereum’s Blob Space will scale the network
and serve as a key revenue stream, balancing the economic relationship
between Mainnet and L2s.

8. DeFi hits all-time highs with $4 trillion DEX volumes

and $200B TVL

Total DeFi (Decentralized Finance) Total Value Locked (TVL)

Source: Defillama as of 12/6/2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Despite record-high decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volumes, both

in absolute terms and relative to centralized exchanges (CEXs),
decentralized finance (DeFi) total value locked (TVL) remains 24% below
its peak. We anticipate that DEX trading volumes will surpass $4 trillion
in 2025, capturing 20% of CEX spot trading volumes, driven by the
proliferation of AI-related tokens and new consumer-facing dApps.

Additionally, the influx of tokenized securities and high-value assets will

catalyze DeFi growth, providing fresh liquidity and broader utility. As a
result, we project DeFi TVL to rebound to over $200 billion by year-end,
reflecting the rising demand for decentralized financial infrastructure in
an evolving digital economy.
9. NFT market recovery with trading volumes
reaching $30 billion

NFT Volumes Fell in 2024; We Expect a Rebound in 2025

Arbitrum Avalanche Base Bitcion BNB Cardano

Ethereum OP Flow Polygon Solana

Source: as of: 12/6/2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Not intended as a
recommendation to buy or sell any securities named herein.
The 2022–2023 bear market dealt a severe blow to the NFT sector, with
trading volumes plummeting 39% since 2023 and a staggering 84% since
2022. While fungible token prices began to recover in 2024, most NFTs
lagged behind, marked by weak prices and low activity until a turning
point in November. Despite these challenges, a few standout projects
have defied the downward trend by leveraging strong community bonds
to transcend speculative value.

For instance, Pudgy Penguins have successfully transitioned into a

consumer brand through collectible toys, while Miladys have gained
cultural prominence within the realm of sardonic internet culture.
Similarly, the Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) has continued to evolve as a
dominant cultural force, attracting widespread attention from brands,
celebrities, and mainstream media.

As crypto wealth rebounds, we expect newly affluent users to diversify

into NFTs, not merely as speculative investments but as assets with
enduring cultural and historical significance. Established collections such
as CryptoPunks and Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) are well-positioned to
benefit from this shift, given their strong cultural cachet and relevance.
While BAYC and CryptoPunks remain significantly below their all-time
trading peaks, down approximately 90% and 66% in ETH terms,
respectively, other projects like Pudgy Penguins and Miladys have
already exceeded their previous price highs.

Ethereum continues to dominate the NFT space, hosting the majority of

significant collections. In 2024, it accounts for 71% of NFT trading, a
figure we project to rise to 85% by 2025. This dominance is reflected in
market capitalization rankings, where Ethereum-based NFTs occupy the
entire top 10 and 16 of the top 20 positions, underscoring the
blockchain's central role in the NFT ecosystem.

Although NFT trading volumes may not revisit the euphoric highs of
previous cycles, we think a $30 billion annual turnover is doable,
approximately 55% of the 2021 peak, as the market shifts toward
sustainability and cultural relevance over speculative hype.

10. DApp tokens narrow the performance gap with

L1 tokens
In 2024, Layer 1 Tokens Outperformed Leading dApps by 2x

Source: Market Vectors as of 12/8/2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The MVSCLE index
tracks Smart Contract Platforms. The MVIALE index tracks Infrastructure Application tokens.

A consistent theme of the 2024 bull market has been the significant
outperformance of Layer-1 (L1) blockchain tokens compared to
decentralized application (dApp) tokens. For instance, the MVSCLE index,
which tracks Smart Contract Platforms, has gained 80% year-to-date,
while the MVIALE index of application tokens has lagged with a 35%
return over the same period.

However, we anticipate this dynamic will shift later in 2024 as a wave of

new dApps launches, delivering innovative and useful products that
drive value to their respective tokens. Among the key thematic trends,
we see artificial intelligence (AI) as a standout category for dApp
innovation. Additionally, Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks
(DePIN) projects offer immense potential to capture investor and user
interest, contributing to a broader performance rebalancing between L1
tokens and dApp tokens.

This pivot underscores the growing importance of utility and product-

market fit in determining the success of application tokens in the
evolving crypto landscape.

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DISCLOSURES

Coin Definitions

Bitcoin (BTC) is a decentralized digital currency, without a central bank or

single administrator, that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-
peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.

Ethereum (ETH) is a decentralized, open-source blockchain with smart

contract functionality. Ether is the native cryptocurrency of the platform.
Amongst cryptocurrencies, Ether is second only to Bitcoin in market
capitalization.

Arbitrum (ARB) is a rollup chain designed to improve the scalability of

Ethereum. It achieves this by bundling multiple transactions into a single
transaction, thereby reducing the load on the Ethereum network.

Optimism (OP) is a layer-two blockchain on top of Ethereum. Optimism

benefits from the security of the Ethereum mainnet and helps scale the
Ethereum ecosystem by using optimistic rollups.

Polygon (MATIC) is the first well-structured, easy-to-use platform for

Ethereum scaling and infrastructure development. Its core component is
Polygon SDK, a modular, flexible framework that supports building multiple
types of applications.

Solana (SOL) is a public blockchain platform. It is open-source and

decentralized, with consensus achieved using proof of stake and proof of
history. Its internal cryptocurrency is SOL.

Binance Coin (BNB) is digital asset native to the Binance blockchain and
launched by the Binance online exchange.

Stacks (STX) provides software for internet ownership, which includes

infrastructure and developer tools to power a computing network and
ecosystem for decentralized applications (dApps).

Avalanche (AVAX) is an open-source platform for launching decentralized

finance applications and enterprise blockchain deployments in one
interoperable, scalable ecosystem.

Sui (SUI) is a first-of-its-kind Layer 1 blockchain and smart contract

platform designed from the bottom up to make digital asset ownership
fast, private, secure, and accessible.

NEAR Protocol (NEAR) is a layer-one blockchain that was designed as a

community-run cloud computing platform and that eliminates some of the
limitations that have been bogging competing blockchains, such as low
transaction speeds, low throughput and poor interoperability.

Core (CORE) is built as an L1 blockchain that is compatible with Ethereum

Virtual Machine (EVM), therefore it can run Ethereum smart contracts and
 decentralized applications (dApps).

Flow (FLOW) is a layer one blockchain designed from the ground up for
consumer apps and the digital assets that power them. The network runs
on a Proof of Stake consensus mechanism with a unique "multi-role"
architecture that solves the blockchain trilemma, balancing scalability,
efficiency, and cost.

Index definitions

The MarketVector™ Smart Contract Leaders Index (MVSCLE) is designed to

track the performance of the largest and most liquid smart contract assets, and is
an investable subset of MarketVector™ Smart Contract Index.

The MarketVector™ Infrastructure Application Leaders Index (MVIALE) is

designed to track the performance of the largest and most liquid infrastructure
application assets, and is an investable subset of the MarketVector™ Infrastructure
Application Index.

Risk Considerations

This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the
securities, financial instruments or digital assets mentioned herein. The
information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment,
financial, legal, tax advice, or any call to action. Certain statements contained
herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking
statements, which do not reflect actual results, are for illustrative purposes only,
are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without
notice. Actual future performance of any assets or industries mentioned are
unknown. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable
and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and
cannot be guaranteed. VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of third party
data. The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not
necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees.

The information, valuation scenarios and price targets presented on any digital
assets in this blog are not intended as financial advice, a recommendation to buy
or sell these digital assets, or any call to action. There may be risks or other
factors not accounted for in these scenarios that may impede the performance
these digital assets; their actual future performance is unknown, and may differ
significantly from any valuation scenarios or projections/forecasts herein. Any
projections, forecasts or forward-looking statements included herein are the
results of a simulation based on our research, are valid as of the date of this
communication and subject to change without notice, and are for illustrative
purposes only. Please conduct your own research and draw your
own conclusions.
Past performance is not an indication, or guarantee, of future results.
Hypothetical or model performance results have certain inherent limitations.
Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual
trading, and accordingly, may have undercompensated or overcompensated for
the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as market disruptions and lack
of liquidity. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk and
no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of
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trading program in spite of trading losses). Hypothetical or model performance is
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Index performance is not representative of fund performance. It is not possible to

invest directly in an index.

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and involve a high degree of risk. These risks include, but are not limited to: the
technology is new and many of its uses may be untested; intense competition;
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