MHF4UW Probability
Conditional Probability
Independence
● Independent events have the same probability regardless of previous events.
○ E.g. flipping two coins. If the first coin is a head, does that change the probability of the second coin
also being a head?
No
○ The product of the probabilities is the intersection of the two events.
P(ANB) = P(A) + P(B)
Using the coin flip example:
What is the probability that the first coin is heads AND the second coin is tails?
0 S
.
-
H
A heads 1st
# Tos B = tails 22
P(A n B) P(A)XP(B)
/
=
=
Y2x'
↑ =
Y
Example 1) The probability of event A is 𝑃(𝐴) = 0. 3. The probability of event B is P(B) = 0.6. The probability of
𝑃(𝐴⋂ 𝐵) = 0. 18. Are these events independent? If independent P(ANB) P(A)XP(B) ,
=
= S
% LS = RS
PlanB) = 0 .
18 P(A) P(B)+
These events
0 3x0 6 0 18
independent
= .
= .
.
.
are
Example 2) You roll one die and flip one coin. Answer the following:
a) What is the sample space for this event?
& IH ,
2 H ,3 H , 4H , SH bH IT,
, ,
2 T, 37, 45
,
ST, 653
b) How many outcomes are there? 12
c) Find 𝑃(𝐻) where H is getting a head. P(H) = 2 =
d) Find 𝑃(𝐿) where L is getting a score less than 6. P(2) = " =
5/6
5/2
P(H) x P(L) P(Hnl)
e) Find 𝑃(𝐻⋂ 𝐿) =
·
=
f) Are these events independent? P(H) xP(r)
=% These events
In X 5/6 /1
are independent
MHF4UW Probability
Mutually Exclusive Events
● Mutually exclusive events cannot occur together. Venn Diagram →
→ We flip one coin: Event A is getting a head, Event B is getting a tail.
⑮
→ We draw one card: Event A is drawing the Ace of Spades, Event B is drawing the Four of Diamonds.
Algebraically:
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) = 0; 𝑃(𝐴∪𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵)
Example 3) Three events: A, B, and C are such that A and B are mutually exclusive and P(A)=0.2, P(C)=0.3,
-
I
Ple
P(A⋃B)=0.4 and P(B⋃C)=0.34.
.
8
·
a) Calculate 𝑃(𝐵) and 𝑃(𝐵⋂C)
-
P(BnC)
0 . 34 = 0 2 +
.
0 . 3
b) Determine whether B and C are independent.
P(B) X
P(c)
= 0 .
2X0 3 0 06
. =
Conditional Probability - “Given That” =
.
P(BC)
these are not independent
Example 4) In a class of 25 students, 16 study French, 11 study Spanish, and 4 study neither language. Represent
this information on a Venn Diagram. n (FuS) n(F) + n(s) n(ES)
=
-
21 = 16 + 11 -
25
P(FSp) = Sp
&
PLE &
The conditional probability that A occurs given that B has occurred is written as 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) and defined as:
= eP(A)
Dep events .
:
#BL and
P(An B) = P (A) P(B)
.
·
MHF4UW Probability
We can calculate conditional probabilities using: 1) Venn Diagrams 2) Tree Diagrams 3) Algebra
Example 4) There are 84 teachers in a school. Of the teachers, 56 drink tea , 37 drink coffee and 12 drink neither
tea nor coffee.
a) How many teachers drink both tea and coffee? 84
n (+
+c) =
n (t) + n(x) n(TVC)
-
⑮
=
56 + 37 -
72
=
2)
b) One member of the teaching staff is chosen at random. Find the probability that:
i) They are a tea drinker but not coffee
P(T 1() =
ii) If they are a tea drinker, that they drink coffee as well
that t
Given P(cIt)
= =
iii) If they are a tea drinker, that they do not drink coffee.
p(cIT)
P 3
=
=
Example 5) A bag contains 4 red balls and 5 yellow balls. Draw the tree diagram if 3 balls are drawn.
↓
without
replacement
P(R drawn first) =
Yg
P(exactly owt
1
=
+A
red first)
What is the probability of drawing exactly one yellow ball given the first ball drawn was red?
-
P(Y=1 | red drawn first)
=R
MHF4UW Probability
Example 6) Two printing machines X and Y are used to that X produces 60% of the finished print run and Y
produces 40% of it. 97% of the printing from X is perfect whereas 95% of the printing from Y is perfect.
a) What is the probability that a piece of printing is perfect given that it was printed on X?
b) What is the probability that a piece of printing is perfect given that it was printed on Y?
c) Determine the probability that a randomly selected piece of printing from the machines is perfect.
d) What is the probability that a piece of printing is from X given that it is perfect?
