Basic Science Process Skills
PREDICTING
Making predictions is making educated
guesses about the outcomes of future
events. We are forecasting future
observations. The ability to make predictions
about future events allows us to successfully
interact with the environment around us.
Prediction is based on both good
observation and inferences made
about observed events. Like
inferences, predictions are based
on both what we observe and also
our past experiences the mental
models we have built up from those
experiences. So, predictions are
not just guesses!
• Predictions based on our inferences or
hypotheses about events give us a way to
test those inferences or hypotheses. If the
prediction turns out to be correct, then we
have greater confidence in our
inference/hypothesis. This is the basis of
the scientific process used by scientists
who are asking and answering questions
by integrating together the different basic
science process skills.
Prediction is a guess about what
might happen in the future, based
on observations that you make.
Predicting is closely related to other
process skills such as observing,
inferring, and classifying. Many
process skills are in fact dependent
on other process skills.
Examples of predictions:
• It is cloudy, so I predict it is
going to rain today.
• If I flip the switch, I predict the
light will turn on
When making a prediction….
• It is important to look at possible patterns
and current observations.
• Use your senses to observe and collect
data/information
• Notice any patterns through classification
• Make connections to your knowledge
• Predict what you think will happen in the
future based on these things
Here are some steps to think about
to make a dependable prediction:
• Collect data using your senses, remember
you use your senses to make
observations.
• Search for patterns of behavior and or
characteristics.
• Develop statements about you think future
observations will be.
• Test the prediction and observe what
happens
Predictions in the Real World
• Predictions are made in science
all the time, but even our daily
lives we make predictions every
day. Some examples of real world
predictions are:
o It is raining and the sun is out one
could predict there may be a rainbow.
o A college student is studying hard
for their final exam really one might
predict they will get an A on it.
o A child has a fever and a sore
throat, one might predict the child has
strep throat.
Interpolation and Extrapolation
• There are two types of predictions that can
be made. One is called extrapolation; the
other is called interpolation.
• Extrapolated predictions
are those that are made
outside of the known data
points. Trends in the known
data can often be used to
make accurate
extrapolated predictions;
however, this is not always
the case. A young man's
parents kept track of his
height through the years,
as shown in the graph
below. Extrapolation shows
that Bryan will be about 10
feet tall when he's 30 years
old.
• Interpolated predictions
are those that are made
between known data
points. An interpolation of
this data would lead one to
the prediction that Bryan
was about 4.5 ft tall at the
age of 14. Is this a
reasonable prediction?
Typically, interpolated
predictions are more
accurate
