CLIMATE AT A GLANCE

FOR TEACHERS AND STUDENTS

ICCC-14 Edition

FACTS for Climate

Realists on

30 Prominent
Climate Topics

Authored by Edited by
Anthony Watts H. Sterling
James Taylor Burnett
FACTS for Climate
Realists on

30
The Atmosphere and Land
Prominent
Climate Topics
Crop Production ............................................................ 6
Drought .......................................................................... 8
Floods .......................................................................... 10
Snowpack ................................................................... 12
Water Levels - Great Lakes ........................................ 16
Water Levels - Lake Mead .......................................... 18
Water Levels - Lake Tahoe ......................................... 20
The Sea and Ice
Coral Reefs ................................................................. 24
Greenland Ice Melt ..................................................... 27
Islands and Sea-Level Rise ........................................ 30
Ocean Acidification ..................................................... 32
Ocean Currents .......................................................... 34
Sea-Level Rise ........................................................... 36
Temperatures and Extreme Weather
Cold Spells .................................................................. 40
Hurricanes .................................................................. 41
Tornadoes .................................................................. 44
Urban Heat Islands ..................................................... 46
U.S. Heat Waves ......................................................... 49
U.S. Temperatures ...................................................... 51
U.S. Wildfires .............................................................. 54
Humans and Animals
Climate Refugees ....................................................... 58
COVID-19’s Impact on CO2 Levels ............................ 61
Livestock and Methane ............................................... 64
Malaria and Mosquito-Borne Diseases ....................... 66
Polar Bears ................................................................. 69
Scientific and Policy Controversies
Climate Sensitivity ....................................................... 72
Carbon Dioxide Taxes ................................................. 74
Consensus .................................................................. 76
Energy Subsidies ........................................................ 78
National Security ......................................................... 80
Section 1

The
Atmosphere
and Land

Crop Production .................................. 6

Drought ..................................... .......... 8
Floods ................................................. 10
Snowpack ........................................... 12
Water Levels - Great Lakes ............... 16
Water Levels - Lake Mead ................. 18
Water Levels - Lake Tahoe ................ 20
Climate at a Glance

Crop Production

A s the climate has modestly

warmed, U.S. crop yields have
set new records almost every year.
Key Takeaways
The same is true for nearly all other • Global crop yields have set
nations, too. Thanks in large part to new records almost every year
longer growing seasons, fewer frost as our planet has modestly
events, more precipitation, and the warmed.1
fertilization effect of atmospheric
carbon dioxide, farmers are • U.S. crop yields have
producing greater amounts of food continued to grow, setting new
on fewer acres of land, allowing records nearly every year.2
them to feed the world’s growing • Longer growing seasons,
population. higher temperatures, and
The 2019 global crop year brought greater concentrations of
record production of staple cereal atmospheric carbon dioxide are
crops, such as of corn, rice, and creating ideal crop conditions.
wheat.3 (See Figure 1.) Further, prior
to 2019, crop production records of
staple cereal crops were set nearly
every year during the previous December 2020 that annual global
decade. cereal production increased by 1.3
percent compared to 2019, despite
Even more remarkable, since production constraints caused by the
2015, almost every important U.S. COVID-19 pandemic.5
crop has set a record for yield
per acre, according to the U.S. Global warming lengthens growing
Department of Agriculture (USDA).4 seasons, reduces frost events, and
For example, USDA reports the makes more land conducive for crop
three highest records for corn yields production. Global soil moisture
occurred in 2017, 2018, and 2019. has maintained pace or improved as
Further, the five highest rice yields the average global temperature has
ever recorded occurred from 2015 risen modestly in recent decades,
through 2019, and the wheat yields with greater oceanic evaporation
recorded from 2011 to 2019 are leading to more precipitation,
among the top 10 highest wheat especially during the summer and fall
yields in U.S. history. crop seasons.6
These trends continued throughout Moreover, carbon dioxide greatly
the world in 2020. The U.N. Food and benefits crop production, as
Agriculture Organization reported in atmospheric carbon dioxide works

6 / Climate at a Glance / The Heartland Institute

 The Atmosphere and Land: Crop Production

as an aerial fertilizer. Higher greenhouse operators often pump

atmospheric carbon dioxide levels additional carbon dioxide into their
assist plant growth and resistance facilities.
to drought. It is for this reason that

Figure 1. Cereal Production,

Utilization, and Stocks

Figure 1. Cereal production,

utilization, and stocks. Source: U.N.
Food and Agriculture Organization,
“World Food Situation,” fao.
org, July 8, 2021, accessed July
25, 2021, http://www.fao.org/
worldfoodsituation/csdb/en

References:
1. U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, “World Food Situation,” fao.org, March 12,
2020, http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/en
2. National Agricultural Statistics Service, Crop Production Historical Track Records, U.S.
Department of Agriculture, April 2019, https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/To-
days_Reports/reports/croptr19.pdf
3. Ibid.
4. National Agricultural Statistics Service, Crop Production Historical Track Records, U.S.
Department of Agriculture, April 2021, https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/To-
days_Reports/reports/croptr21.pdf
5. U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, “Crop Prospects and Food Situation,”
Quarterly Global Report, No. 4, December 2020, http://www.fao.org/3/cb2334en/
CB2334EN.pdf
6. Justin Sheffield and Eric F. Wood, “Global Trends and Variability in Soil Moisture and
Drought Characteristics, 1950–2000, from Observation-Driven Simulations of the Terres-
trial Hydrologic Cycle,” Journal of Climate, February 1, 2008, pp. 432–458, https://doi.
org/10.1175/2007JCLI1822.1

The Heartland Institute / Climate at a Glance / 7

Climate at a Glance

Drought

R eal-world data show drought

conditions in the United States
have become less frequent and less
Key Takeaways
severe as the climate has modestly • The United States has benefited
warmed. Moreover, the United from additional precipitation
Nations reports “low confidence” and a reduction in drought
about any negative trends globally. conditions as the climate has
Droughts have always occurred, modestly warmed.
and they always will. The available
evidence shows the droughts that • The United States set records
have occurred in recent years were in 2017 and 2019 for having
not caused or worsened by global its smallest percentage of land
warming. Instead, global and U.S. area experiencing drought
drought data show recent droughts conditions.1
were less frequent and severe than • The U.N. Intergovernmental
the droughts of the early and mid- Panel on Climate Change
twentieth century. (IPCC) reports with “high
The U.S. National Oceanic and confidence” that precipitation
Atmospheric Administration data has increased over mid-latitude
displayed in Figure 1 show that the land areas of the Northern
United States is undergoing its longest Hemisphere (including the
period in recorded history without United States) during the past
at least 40 percent of the country 70 years, while IPCC has “low
experiencing “very dry” conditions.3 confidence” about any negative
Further, it’s important to note that the trends globally.2
peaks in drought displayed in Figure
1, occurring around 1900, 1930, 1954,
and 1978, are much higher than those
experienced in the United States in the
twentieth and twenty-first centuries.

8 / Climate at a Glance / The Heartland Institute

 The Atmosphere and Land: Drought

Figure 1. Percentage of the United States

Experiencing ‘Very Wet’ or ‘Very Dry’ Conditions

Figure 1. Percentage of United States experiencing “very wet” (in green) or “very dry” (in yellow)
conditions. Source: National Centers for Environmental Information, “U.S. Percentage Areas (Very
Warm/Cold, Very Wet/Dry),” U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, accessed July
25, 2021.

References:
1. Jonathan Erdman, “Drought Coverage in the Continental U.S. Drops to a 21st Century
Record Low,” weather.com, April 12, 2019, https://weather.com/news/climate/
news/2019-04-12-drought-record-low-coverage-continental-us-april-2019
2. U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Impacts of 1.5°C of Global
Warming on Natural and Human Systems,” Chapter 3, Special Report on Global
Warming, 2019, p. 191, https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/
SR15_Chapter3_Low_Res.pdf
3. National Centers for Environmental Information, “U.S. Percentage Areas (Very Warm/
Cold, Very Wet/Dry),” U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, accessed
December 28, 2020, https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/uspa/wet-dry/0

The Heartland Institute / Climate at a Glance / 9

Climate at a Glance

Floods

O ccasional heavy precipitation

events and floods have always
occurred and always will. The IPCC
Key Takeaways
reports it has “low confidence” cli- • The U.N. Intergovernmental
mate change has had a measurable Panel on Climate Change
impact on flooding. Moreover, IPCC (IPCC) reports it has “low
acknowledges that climate change confidence” climate change is
is as likely to have reduced flooding impacting flooding.
as it is to have made flooding events
more common. When climate activists • The IPCC admits having “low
point to a particular flooding event confidence” in even the “sign”
and claim climate change is to blame, of any changes. In other words,
the assertion defies objective data and it is just as likely that climate
even the IPCC’s own analyses. change is making floods less
frequent and less severe as
Predictions of future flooding are it is more frequent and more
merely that, speculative predictions. severe.1
Those who claim flooding events
could increase in the future do so in • Studies of rivers and streams
contradiction to real-world data. Ad- that have not been altered by
ditionally, if any increase in flooding human development show
were to occur in the near future, that no or very little increase in
increase would need to be considered flooding events.
alongside real-world reductions in • Floods always have and always
drought reported by the U.S. National will occur. With no increase
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administra- in overall flooding activity,
tion (NOAA). there is no justifiable reason to
As Figure 1 shows, NOAA has docu- blame any recent, current, or
mented a significant reduction in the near-future flooding events on
costs associated with flooding in the climate change.
United States over the past century. In
the 2018 National Climate Assessment According to a study on the potential
published by NOAA, it is stated on of climate-change-related impacts
page 99, “Human-induced warming on flooding in the United States and
has not been formally identified as a Europe, published in the Journal of
factor in increased riverine flooding Hydrology, “The number of significant
and the timing of any emergence of [flooding] trends was about the number
a future detectable human caused expected due to chance alone. … The
change is unclear.” results of this study, for North America

10 / Climate at a Glance / The Heartland Institute

 The Atmosphere and Land: Floods

and Europe, provide a firmer foundation the Hydrological Sciences Journal,

and support the conclusion of the IPCC examined claims in the IPCC’s Fifth
that compelling evidence for increased Assessment Report and concluded that
flooding at a global scale is lacking.”2 “presently we have only low con-
fidence in numerical projections of
Further, a 2014 study titled “Flood changes in flood magnitude or frequen-
Risk and Climate Change: Global and cy resulting from climate change.”4
Regional Perspectives,”3 published in

Figure 1. Annual Cost of U.S. Flood Damage, 1903–2019

Figure 1. U.S. flood damage as a proportion of U.S. gross domestic product. Data plotted by Bjorn
Lomborg. Data Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

References:
1. Sonia I. Seneviratne and Neville Nicholls, coordinating lead authors, “Changes in
Climate Extremes and Their Impacts on the Natural Physical Environment,” Chapter 3,
A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, Cambridge University Press, pp. 109–230, https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/
uploads/2018/03/SREX-Chap3_FINAL-1.pdf
2. Glenn A. Hodgkins et al., “Climate-Driven Variability in the Occurrence of Major Floods
Across North America and Europe,” Journal of Hydrology, Volume 552, September
2017, pp. 704–717, http://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/11682/1/MurphyCo_Climate-
driven_2017.pdf
3. Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz et al., “Flood Risk and Climate Change: Global and Regional
Perspectives,” Hydrological Sciences Journal, Volume 59, Issue 1, 2014, https://www.
tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02626667.2013.857411
4. Dennis L. Hartmann, Albert M.G. Klein Tank, and Matilde Rusticucci, coordinating lead
authors, “Observations: Atmosphere and Surface: Supplementary Material,” Chapter 2,
Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, a contribution of Working Group I to
the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013,
pp. 2SM-1–2SM-26, http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_
Ch02SM_FINAL.pdf

The Heartland Institute / Climate at a Glance / 11

Climate at a Glance

Snowpack

N ASA satellites have measured

snow cover since 1966.1 The
lines graphed in Figure 1 represent
Key Takeaways
12-month snow cover anomalies, • Average North American
which are a departure from a defined snowpack extent is virtually
reference point. The blue dots the same as it was in the late
represent North American snow 1960s, when U.S. satellite
cover totals. Note they show almost measurements began.
no declining trend since 1966, and a
rising trend since the late 1980s.2 • Following a short-term decline
in snowpack in the mid-1980s,
Further, the Eurasian snow data average North American
appearing in Figure 1 illustrate there snowpack has increased.
has been a modest decline in Eurasian
snow since the 1960s, but that there • There has been only a modest
has also been an increase in snow decline in Eurasian snowpack
coverage since the late 1980s. in recent years.

On a seasonal basis,
snowpack throughout the Northern
Hemisphere has increased over the
past several decades in the fall and
winter, as shown in Figures 2 and 3.
As these and other data reveal, the
only long-term negative overall
snow-cover trends occurring in recent
decades have been limited to spring
snow cover, primarily in Eurasia.
North American snow cover remains
approximately the same today as when
coverage was first precisely measured
in the 1960s, and snow cover has been
increasing since the late 1980s.

12 / Climate at a Glance / The Heartland Institute

 The Atmosphere and Land: Snowpack

Figure 1. 12-Month Running Mean Snow Cover Anomalies,

November 1966–December 2019

Figure 1. Twelve-month running anomalies of monthly snow extent, from November 1966 to
December 2019. Note that North America, represented by the blue dots, remains virtually unchanged
in recent years compared to the late 1960s, when satellite measurements first began. Source: Global
Snow Lab, “12-month Running Anomalies of Monthly Snow Extent from November 1966 to December
2019,” Rutgers University Climate Lab, accessed December 2020, https://climate.rutgers.edu/
snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=0&ui_region=nhland&ui_month=2

References:
1. See Rutgers University Climate Lab, “Northern Hemisphere Snow and Ice Climate Data
Records,” accessed July 24, 2021, https://climate.rutgers.edu/measures/snowice
1. Global Snow Lab, “12-month Running Anomalies of Monthly Snow Extent from
November 1966 to December 2019,” Rutgers University Climate Lab, accessed July
24, 2021, https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=0&ui_
region=nhland&ui_month=2

The Heartland Institute / Climate at a Glance / 13

The Atmosphere and Land: Snowpack

Figure 2. Fall Northern Hemisphere Snow Extent

Figure 2. This figure displays fall Northern Hemisphere snow extent. Note that Figure 2 shows that
snow cover throughout the Northern Hemisphere has increased during the fall months since the
1960s. (The “ND” in the chart indicates no data for a given year.) Source: Global Snow Lab, “Fall
Northern Hemisphere Snow Extent,” Rutgers University Climate Lab, accessed December 2020,
https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=nhland&ui_season=4

14 / Climate at a Glance / The Heartland Institute

 The Atmosphere and Land: Snowpack

Figure 3. Winter Northern Hemisphere Snow Extent

Figure 3. This chart shows winter Northern Hemisphere snow extent. Note that global snow cov-
er throughout the Northern Hemisphere has increased during the winter months since the 1960s.
Source: Global Snow Lab, “Winter Northern Hemisphere Snow Extent,” Rutgers University Climate
Lab, accessed December 2020, https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=n-
hland&ui_season=1

The Heartland Institute / Climate at a Glance / 15

Climate at a Glance

Water Levels - Great Lakes

I n the early 2010s, during a brief

low period for the water levels
of the Great Lakes, climate activists
Key Takeaways
repeatedly asserted low water levels • The Great Lakes
were creating a crisis, climate change are benefiting from record-
was to blame for the lower levels, high water levels, just a few
and that water levels would keep years after climate activists
falling in the future. For example, claimed global warming would
in 2013, Think Progress claimed, cause water levels to drop.
“Several different climate models for
the Great Lakes region all predict that • Water levels have been above
lake levels will decline over the next average since 2014.
century.”1 • Many activists now claim
However, since Think Progress and global warming causes
others made these dire claims, Great high water levels, but they
Lakes water marks have reached their have already claimed global
highest recorded levels, as shown in warming causes low water
Figure 1. Further, the Great Lakes levels, calling into question
have sustained abundant, above- activists’ assertion that the
average water levels since 2014.2 science is “settled” on climate
change and its consequences.
In a complete reversal of their
previous predictions and warnings, • Any attempts to claim global
climate activists now claim the high warming causes water-level
water levels of the Great Lakes are volatility are also contradicted
creating a new crisis and that climate by scientific evidence and the
change is the cause.3 Moreover, many historical record. For example,
have argued that the relative instability water levels were more volatile
of the Great Lakes water levels, which in the late 1920s and the 1960s
some say is also the result of climate than they are today.
change, is extremely problematic.4
However, both claims are contradicted
by the available scientific evidence
and climate activists’ prior claims. history of the Great Lakes, and as
shown in Figure 1, water levels were
High, low, and variable water levels more volatile in the late 1920s and
are a longstanding component of the 1960s than they are today.

16 / Climate at a Glance / The Heartland Institute

 The Atmosphere and Land: Water Levels - Great Lakes

Figure 1. Great Lakes Water Levels (1918–2020)

Figure 1. In recent years, Great Lakes water levels have experienced record-high marks, and they
have been higher than average since 2014. Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, “Great Lakes
Water Level Data,” accessed July 24, 2021, https://www.lre.usace.army.mil/Missions/Great-Lakes-In-
formation/Great-Lakes-Information-2/Water-Level-Data

References:
1. Matt Kasper, “How Climate Change Is Damaging the Great Lakes, with Implications
for the Environment and the Economy,” Think Progress, January 18, 2013, https://
thinkprogress.org/how-climate-change-is-damaging-the-great-lakes-with-implications-
for-the-environment-and-the-economy-ad8a2f5e867d
2. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, “Great Lakes Water Level Data,” accessed December
2020, https://www.lre.usace.army.mil/Missions/Great-Lakes-Information/Great-Lakes-
Information-2/Water-Level-Data
3. Kim Frauhammer, “Great Lakes Water Levels Have Swung from Record Lows to
Record Highs. Here’s Why,” The Washington Post, November 8, 2019, https://www.
washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/11/08/great-lakes-water-levels-have-swung-
record-lows-record-highs-heres-why
4. Daniel Cusick, “Cities along the Great Lakes Face Rising Water and Costs,” Scientific
American, July 9, 2021, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/cities-along-the-
great-lakes-face-rising-water-and-costs

The Heartland Institute / Climate at a Glance / 17

Climate at a Glance

Water Levels - Lake Mead

F or most of the past half-century,

Lake Mead has enjoyed above-
average water levels.1 Lake Mead
Key Takeaways
water levels rose steadily for 18 years, • Lake Mead water levels
from 1965 to 1983, and they remained rose steadily from 1965 to
above average for most of the three- 1983, setting record-high
decade period from 1973 to 2002. levels in 1983.
At some point, lower water levels
are bound to develop, a reality that is • For all but two years of the
occurring now at Lake Mead. three decades running from
1973 to 2002, water levels
Relatively lower water levels at remained above average, the
Lake Mead are not alarming or longest such period on record.
surprising. It is common for regions
throughout the world to experience • After nearly 30 years of
varying periods of lower or higher abundance, a decline was
rainfall and fluctuating water levels. bound to eventually occur.
The water levels at Lake Mead are • Rainfall has been below
not representative of what has been average in recent years in the
occurring throughout America over Colorado River Basin, but
the past 100 years. above average nationally.
As shown in Figure 1, during the • Some regions of the world are
past century, much of the continental always going to be drier than
United States has enjoyed more others, with or without global
abundant precipitation as the planet warming.
has warmed.2 Further, the U.N.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) has confirmed that
to Arizona, California, Colorado,
since 1951 there has been an increase
Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and
in precipitation in mid-latitude global
Wyoming. Every one of those states
regions, including the United States,
has experienced significant population
with no detected global precipitation
increases and greater water demands
decline.3
since the reservoir was filled in 1935,
It is also important to note the an important factor when considering
Lake Mead reservoir serves water Lake Mead’s water levels.4,5

18 / Climate at a Glance / The Heartland Institute

 The Atmosphere and Land: Water Levels - Lake Mead

Figure 1. Annual Precipitation Trends in the United States,

1895–2020

Figure 1. This figure shows U.S. precipitation trends during the 1895–2020 period. Note that precipi-
tation has increased throughout much of the United States during the past century as the planet has
warmed, contradicting claims made by many climate activists insisting that global warming is causing
droughts and severe drops in water levels. Also note that the Western United States, shown in grey
in Figure 1, has not experienced a strong trend during the studied period. Source: National Centers
for Environmental Information, “United States Precipitation Trends 1895–2020,” National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration, accessed July 12, 2021, https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/
temp-and-precip/us-trends/prcp/trends-prcp-ann-por-full.gif

References:
1. Data from U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, “Lake Mead Water Levels — Historical and
Current 1935 to the Present,” https://usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/hourly/mead-elv.html.
Graphed online by Paul Lutus, accessed December 2020, https://arachnoid.com/
NaturalResources/image.php?mead
2. National Centers for Environmental Information, “United States Precipitation Trends
1895–2019,” National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, accessed December
2020, https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/temp-and-precip/us-trends/
prcp/trends-prcp-ann-por-full.gif
3. Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Daniela Jacob, and Michael Taylor, coordinating lead authors,
“Impacts of 1.5°C of Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems,” Chapter 3,
Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5 ºC, U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, 2018, p. 191 https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_
Chapter3_Low_Res.pdf
4. U.S Census Bureau, “2020 Census: Percent Change in Resident Population for the 50
States, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico: 2010 to 2020,” census.gov, accessed
July 26, 2021, https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/2021/dec/2020-percent-
change-map.html
5. National Park Service, “Overview of Lake Mead,” nps.gov, accessed July 26, 2021,
https://www.nps.gov/lake/learn/nature/overview-of-lake-mead.htm

The Heartland Institute / Climate at a Glance / 19

Climate at a Glance

Water Levels - Lake Tahoe

I n 2015 and 2016, climate activists

frequently asserted that the 2015–16
California drought, as well as the low
Key Takeaways
water levels at Lake Tahoe allegedly • Lake Tahoe reached its
tied to that drought, signaled a “new maximum allowable water
normal.”1, 2 Since then, however, Lake level in 2017–19, requiring
Tahoe’s water level has reached its special water releases into the
maximum allowable limit of nine Truckee River.
feet above gage height (6,229 feet
elevation) in 2017, 2018, and 2019, • The 2015–16 Northern
requiring special water releases into California drought was very
the Truckee River.3 (This is shown brief and followed by three
clearly in Figure 1.) consecutive years of abundant
precipitation. During that
It’s also worth noting that at the time period, Lake Tahoe reached
of publication of this book, in 2021, its maximum allowable water
California and Lake Tahoe were level.
once again facing a drought. Yet,
government officials continued to • Activists claiming the 2015–16
make water releases into the Truckee drought signaled a “new
River to alleviate Lake Tahoe’s high normal” of drought and low
water level.4 water levels caused by climate
change have been proven
The failed predictions about Lake wrong.
Tahoe’s water levels provides an
excellent illustration of how climate
alarmists use singular events to
erroneously make arguments about
the dangers of climate change. In the
case of the 2015–16 drought affecting
Lake Tahoe, climate alarmists claimed
a normal, variable event like a brief
drought offered proof of a permanent
climate emergency. However, within
just a few years of making that dire
prediction, they were proven wrong by
real-world data.

20 / Climate at a Glance / The Heartland Institute

 The Atmosphere and Land: Water Levels - Lake Tahoe

Figure 1. Lake Tahoe Water Levels

Figure 1. Note that Lake Tahoe reached its maximum allowable water limit in 2017, 2018, and 2019.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey, “USGS 10337000 Lake Tahoe A Tahoe City CA,” U.S. Geological
Survey, National Water Information System, Accessed July 24, 2021, https://nwis.waterdata.usgs.gov/
nwisweb/graph?agency_cd=USGS&site_no=10337000&parm_cd=00065&period=4478

References:
1. Benjamin Spillman, “The ‘New Normal’? Sierra Snow Drought Endures Despite
‘Miracle’ March,” Reno Gazette-Journal, April 16, 2018, https://www.rgj.com/story/
life/outdoors/2018/04/16/new-normal-sierra-snow-drought-endures-despite-miracle-
march/513227002
2. Center for Watershed Sciences, “Is California’s Drought a ‘New Normal’?,” University
of California at Davis, July 15, 2015, https://californiawaterblog.com/2015/07/15/is-
californias-drought-a-new-normal
3. U.S. Geological Survey, “USGS 10337000 Lake Tahoe A Tahoe City CA,” U.S. Geological
Survey, National Water Information System, accessed July 24, 2021, https://nwis.
waterdata.usgs.gov/nwisweb/graph?agency_cd=USGS&site_no=10337000&parm_
cd=00065&period=4478
4. Laney Griffo, “Drought Measures: Lake Tahoe Water Released to Meet Goals
Downstream,” Tahoe Daily Tribune, June 11, 2021, accessed July 26, 2021, https://
www.tahoedailytribune.com/news/drought-measures-lake-tahoe-water-released-to-
meet-goals-downstream

The Heartland Institute / Climate at a Glance / 21

22 / Climate at a Glance / The Heartland Institute
Section 2

The Sea
and Ice

Coral Reefs ......................................... 24

Greenland Ice Melt ............................. 27
Islands and Sea-Level Rise ............... 30
Ocean Acidification ........................... 32
Ocean Currents .................................. 34
Sea-Level Rise .................................... 36

The Heartland Institute / Climate at a Glance / 23

Climate at a Glance

Coral Reefs

C orals have existed continuous-

ly for the past 40 million years.1
Corals requires warm water, not cold
Key Takeaways
water, to live. Corals cannot survive • Corals thrive in warm water,
outside of tropical or subtropical wa- not cold water.
ters. (See Figure 1.)
• Recent warming has allowed
The primary reasons for coral bleach- corals to expand their range
ing events, which vary significantly poleward while still thriving
depending on the time and location, near the equator.
include sediment and fertilizer pollu-
tion from nearby coastal lands, chemi- • Corals have existed
cals found in sunscreen (oxybenzone), continuously for the past 40
fertilizer and nitrogen loading from million years, surviving
agriculture, and cold temperature temperatures and carbon
events.2,3,4,5 dioxide levels significantly
higher than what is occurring
The argument that corals are being today.
decimated by man-created carbon
dioxide emissions is easily disproven • The primary causes of coral
by the available data. Coral has sur- bleaching, which vary based
vived, and even thrived, when global on the time and location,
temperatures were significantly higher include oxybenzone (a
than they are today.6 Short-term strong chemical found in sunscreen),
heat waves or cold snaps can cause sediment runoff from nearby
bleaching events, but such events coastal lands, fertilizer
have occurred many times in history, and nitrogen loading from
including long before humans start- agriculture, and lower
ed producing substantial amounts of temperatures like those
carbon dioxide emissions. Moreover, recorded in 2010 off the
studies show coral can and do adapt Florida coast.
genetically, and that they are grow-
ing increasingly poleward as earth
experiences gradual long-term global warm-water event, destroying more
warming.7,8 than 40 percent of reef-building corals
in the area.9
Further, history shows that cold snaps
can harm corals much more than According to the National Oceanic
warm spells. In 2010, lower-than-usu- Atmospheric Administration, “The
al ocean temperatures off the coast of majority of reef building corals are
Florida killed more corals than any found within tropical and subtropical

24 / Climate at a Glance / The Heartland Institute

 The Sea and Ice: Coral Reefs

Figure 1. Coral Reef Locations Worldwide

Figure 1. Corals thrive in the warmest of Earth’s waters. Source: National Ocean Service, “Where
Reef Building Corals Found,” National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, accessed July 26,
2021, https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/education/tutorial_corals/media/supp_coral05a.html

waters. These typically occur between approximately 22 percent of the Great

300 north and 300 south latitudes. The Barrier Reef experienced bleaching
red dots on this map show the location recently, not 93 percent, as reported in
of major stony coral reefs of the some erroneous media stories.11,12
world.”10
Perhaps most importantly, recent
Additionally, many of the stories con- evidence shows much of the bleached
cerning coral bleaching are not accu- corals in the Great Barrier Reef are
rate and/or overestimate the problem. fully recovering. A study by Peter
For example, the poster child for coral Ridd revealed that not only are the
alarmism is the Great Barrier Reef coral at the Great Barrier Reef recov-
in Australia. The Australian Institute ering, the amount of healthy corals is
of Marine Science documented that now at an all-time high.13

The Heartland Institute / Climate at a Glance / 25

The Sea and Ice: Coral Reefs

References:
1. Global Reef Project, “Coral Reef History,” accessed July 26, 2021, http://
globalreefproject.com/coral-reef-history.php
2. Zenaida Kotala, “Lathering Up with Sunscreen May Protect Against Cancer – Killing
Coral Reefs,” UCF Today, University of Central Florida, October 20, 2015, https://www.
ucf.edu/news/lathering-up-with-sunscreen-may-protect-against-cancer-killing-coral-
reefs-worldwide
3. D. Lirman et al., “Severe 2010 Cold-Water Event Caused Unprecedented Mortality to
Corals of the Florida Reef Tract and Reversed Previous Survivorship Patterns,” PLOS
ONE, Volume 6, Issue 8, August 10, 2011, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0023047
4. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “How Pollution Affects Coral
Reefs,” accessed July 30, 2021, https://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/visions/coral/
side.html
5. National Ocean Service, “How Does Land-Based Pollution Threaten Coral Reefs?,”
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, accessed July 26, 2021, https://
oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/coral-pollution.html
6. Hiroya Yamano, Kaoru Sugihara, and Keiichi Nomura, “Rapid Poleward Range
Expansion of Tropical Reef Corals in Response to Rising Sea Surface Temperatures,”
Geophysical Research Letters, February 17, 2011, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046474
7. David Polly, “The Eocene Epoch,” University of California Museum of Paleontology
Online Exhibit, accessed July 26, 2021, https://ucmp.berkeley.edu/tertiary/eocene.php
8. Mikhail Matz et al., “Potential and Limits for Rapid Genetic Adaptation to Warming in
a Great Barrier Reef Coral,” PLOS Genetics, Volume 14, Issue 4, April 19, 2018, https://
doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgen.1007220
9. D. Lirman et al., supra note 3.
10. National Ocean Service, “Where Reef Building Corals Found,” National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration, accessed July 26, 2021, https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/
education/tutorial_corals/media/supp_coral05a.html
11. Brian Kahn, “Bleaching Hits 93 Percent of the Great Barrier Reef,” Scientific American,
April 20, 2016, accessed July 26, 2021, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/
bleaching-hits-93-percent-of-the-great-barrier-reef
12. Michael Slezak, “Agencies Say 22% of Barrier Reef Coral Is Dead, Correcting
‘Misinterpretation,’” The Guardian (U.K.), June 3, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/
environment/2016/jun/03/agencies-say-22-of-barrier-reef-coral-is-dead-correcting-
misinterpretation
13. Peter Ridd, “Record Coral Cover of Great Barrier Reef Shames Climate Alarmists,”
Global Warming Policy Forum, July 23, 2021, https://www.thegwpf.com/peter-ridd-
record-coral-cover-of-great-barrier-reef-refutes-climate-alarmists

26 / Climate at a Glance / The Heartland Institute

 The Sea and Ice: Coral Reefs

Climate at a Glance

Greenland Ice Melt

S ea-level measurements contra-

dict claims that the loss of ice in
the Greenland ice sheet threatens to
Key Takeaways
cause global coastal flooding. NASA • Climate activists, including
satellite images, which include read- government bureaucrats,
ings dating back to 1993, show global claim the Greenland ice sheet
sea levels rising at a pace of merely is melting six times faster than
1.2 inches per decade, which is not it was 30 years ago, but 30
significantly different than the typical years ago, the Greenland ice
rate of sea-level rise recorded since sheet was barely melting at all.
the mid-1800s.1 Six times almost no ice loss is
hardly an example of a climate
Over the past couple of decades,
change crisis.
claims of ice melt in Greenland have
been used to bolster fears of runaway • When recent ice loss is
sea-level rise. For example, NASA compared to the full Greenland
scientists said the following about the ice sheet, the loss is so
Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets: miniscule that it is practically
“The two regions have lost 6.4 trillion undetectable.
tons of ice in three decades; unabated,
this rate of melting could cause flood-
ing that affects hundreds of millions of
people by 2100.”2,3 known to rise above freezing on par-
ticularly sunny days, melting a large
Although several trillion tons of amount of surface ice in a short span.
ice sounds like massive ice loss, it It’s an event that has happened many
amounts to less than 1 percent of times before, most notably in 2012.6
Greenland’s total ice mass. As shown
in Figure 1, the total ice loss each year It is also important to note that
is nearly undetectable, coming in at pooled meltwater typically refreezes,
just 0.005 percent of the Greenland ice resulting in virtually no net loss of ice
sheet. in Greenland’s ice sheet. Greenland
experienced some melt events in
Similarly, on July 30, 2021, media the summer of 2021, driven by
outlets touted scary headlines such abnormally sunny weather, but the
as, “Greenland: Enough Ice Melted melt events were quickly followed by
on Single Day to Cover Florida in refreezing and a return to normal ice
Two Inches of Water.”5 While that levels within a few days.
might sound troubling, data show this
amount of ice melt is not unheard of Of course, you need not take our word
in Greenland, where temperatures are for it. The National Snow and Ice Data

The Heartland Institute / Climate at a Glance / 27

The Sea and Ice: Greenland Ice Melt

Center wrote of the recent events: exposure of bare ice and reducing
“The Greenland Ice Sheet had two runoff. The two events resulted in the
extensive melt events in the second 2021 season flipping from a net gain
half of July. The second melt event of ice to near-average net change.”7
had the sixth-largest melt area and
fourth-highest runoff in the satellite A full-context examination of the data
record, which began in 1978. Howev- shows only a tiny fraction of Green-
er, snow cover from earlier snowfall land’s ice sheet is melting, and with
in early summer blunted the potential very little impact—the exact opposite
impact of the melting by limiting the of what many climate alarmists claim.

Figure 1. The Media vs. Reality

Figure 1. A comparison of presentations of satellite data capturing Greenland’s ice mass loss. The
image on the right shows changes in Greenland’s ice mass relative to Greenland’s total ice mass.
Sources: The data plotted in these graphs are from the Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-Comparison
Exercise, a joint exercise by NASA and the European Space Agency.4 Graphs originally by Willis
Eschenbach. Adapted and annotated by Anthony Watts.

28 / Climate at a Glance / The Heartland Institute

 The Sea and Ice: Greenland Ice Melt

References:
1. NASA satellite instruments, with readings dating back to 1993, show global sea levels
rising at a pace of merely 1.2 inches per decade. See “Sea Level Rise,” Climate at a
Glance, accessed September 6, 2021, https://climateataglance.com/climate-at-a-glance-
sea-level-rise
2. See NASA, “Greenland, Antarctica Melting Six Times Faster Than in the 1990s,” press
release, nasa.gov, last updated March 18, 2020, https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/
greenland-antarctica-melting-six-times-faster-than-in-the-1990s
3. Brandon Specktor, “Ice loss in Antarctica and Greenland Increased Sixfold in the Last
30 Years,” LiveScience, March 13, 2020, https://www.livescience.com/antarctica-
greenland-ice-shelf-loss.html
4. Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-Comparison Exercise, “About IMBIE,” NASA and the
European Space Agency, imbie.org, accessed September 5, 2021, http://imbie.org/
about-the-project
5. Oliver Milman, “Greenland: Enough Ice Melted on Single Day to Cover Florida in Two
Inches of Water,” The Guardian (U.K.), July 30, 2021, https://www.theguardian.com/
environment/2021/jul/30/greenland-ice-sheet-florida-water-climate-crisis
6. Mark Hobson, “Thin Clouds Drove Greenland’s Record-Breaking 2012 Ice Melt,”
University of Wisconsin at Madison, April 3, 2013, https://news.wisc.edu/thin-clouds-
drove-greenlands-record-breaking-2012-ice-melt
7. National Snow and Ice Data Center, “Large Melt Events Change the Story of
2021, Published August 11, 2021,” August 11, 2021, http://nsidc.org/greenland-
today/2021/08/large-melt-event-changes-the-story-of-2021

The Heartland Institute / Climate at a Glance / 29

Climate at a Glance
Islands and Sea-Level Rise

C limate change alarmists routine-

ly argue that numerous Pacific
Islands will soon be under water due
Key Takeaways
to rising sea levels caused by climate • Most islands and atolls in
change. But recent population pat- the Pacific Ocean, including
terns suggest Pacific Islanders know Tuvalu, are increasing in size,
they are not facing substantial threats not shrinking.
from sea-level rise. Some allegedly
“endangered” islands have even built • As the sea gradually rises, it
or made plans to build new airports or brings sand and sediment along
resorts.1,2 with it, building up island
shorelines at a rate that offsets
Even more importantly, objective modest sea-level rise.
scientific evidence debunks claims
that climate change is causing small • Despite many predictions that
islands to disappear. Rising seas bring island nations in the Pacific
sand and sediment, which build up would spawn waves of climate
coastal shorelines, often offsetting refugees, the population of
higher-than-usual sea levels. Tuvalu and other islands have
steadily grown, not decreased.
An important example is the island of
Tuvalu. Climate activists often claim
the island nation of Tuvalu is sinking
because of rising seas. However, a declined. At the time of this book’s
recent peer-reviewed study found publication, the population of Tuvalu
eight of Tuvalu’s nine large coral had increased by 20 percent over the
atolls have grown in size during previous 30 years, and it had doubled
recent decades, and 75 percent of compared to its population recorded in
Tuvalu’s 101 smaller reef islands have 1970.4
increased as well.3
Additional peer-reviewed studies have
Further evidence can be found in confirmed other islands in the Pacific
Tuvalu’s population records. Many Ocean are keeping up with rising sea
climate alarmists have warned that levels.5,6 Their atolls have gained more
rising seas have started to cause or than enough height and mass to offset
will soon cause waves of climate modest sea-level rise.7
refugees seeking to flee islands
like Tuvalu. However, Tuvalu’s Climate activist groups and some
population, like the population scientists have been making false dire
of many other island nations, has warnings about sea-level rise for many
consistently grown in recent years, not decades. For instance, more than 30

30 / Climate at a Glance / The Heartland Institute

 The Sea and Ice: Islands and Sea-Level Rise

years ago, the AFP international news all over the world are flocking to the
agency reported all 1,196 islands Maldives, not fleeing them. Like Tu-
that comprise the Maldives could be valu, the Maldives are benefiting from
completely underwater over the next a lucrative tourist trade, not spawning
few decades.8 Not only are all 1,196 climate refugees.
islands still above water, people from

References:
1. Anthony Watts, “FAIL: 30 Year-Old Climate Prediction Proves to Be a Load of Bunkum,”
WattsUpWithThat, March 10, 2018, https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/10/03/fail-30-
year-old-climate-prediction-proves-to-be-a-load-of-bunkum
2. Eric Worrall, “Kiribati Climate Plan: More Resorts, More Tourists,” WattsUpWithThat,
November 21, 2017, https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/11/21/kirabati-climate-plan-
more-resorts-more-tourists
3. “‘Sinking’ Pacific Nation Is Getting Bigger: Study,” Phys.org, February 9, 2018, https://
phys.org/news/2018-02-pacific-nation-bigger.html
4. “Tuvalu Population,” worldometer.info, https://www.worldometers.info/world-
population/tuvalu-population
5. Megan Tuck et al., “Physical Modelling of the Response of Reef Islands to Sea-Level
Rise,” Geology, Volume 47, No. 9, September 1, 2019, https://pubs.geoscienceworld.
org/gsa/geology/article-abstract/47/9/803/572047/Physical-modelling-of-the-response-
of-reef-islands?redirectedFrom=fulltext
6. Paul S. Kench, Murray R. Ford and Susan D. Owen, “Patterns of Island Change
and Persistence Offer Alternate Adaptation Pathways for Atoll Nations,” Nature
Communications, February 9, 2018, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-
02954-1
7. Willis Eschenbach, “Floating Islands,” WattsUpWithThat, January 27, 2010, https://
wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/27/floating-islands/
8. “Threat to Islands,” AFP, republished by Canberra Times (Australia), September 26,
1988, https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/102074798

The Heartland Institute / Climate at a Glance / 31

Climate at a Glance

Ocean Acidification

S cientists and media outlets claim

ocean acidification is occurring
due to increased carbon dioxide
Key Takeaways
(CO2) levels in the atmosphere,1 but • Ocean water is not overly
objective data show the oceans are far acidic.
from acidic.
• A pH of 7 is considered
A pH of 7 is considered neutral, with neutral. A pH below 7 is acidic.
anything below 7 considered acidic. A pH above 7 is alkaline.
Ocean pH averages 8.1, which is
alkaline rather than acidic. Climate • The pH of the oceans averages
models suggest the ocean’s surface 8.1, and it ranges from 7.8 to
pH may have dropped from pH of 8.5. By comparison, rainwater
8.2 to 8.1 since 1750, though that is “acidic,” averaging 5.6.
change was never actually measured. • Since 1850, the pH of surface
In reality, the very small pH drop is ocean waters has fallen by
merely a modeled conjecture.2 merely 0.1 pH units.
A study by scientists at the CO2 • The health of ocean life is
Coalition notes that the health of improved, not harmed, by
ocean life is enhanced by more more carbon dioxide (CO2).
carbon dioxide, not less.3 CO2 is food CO2 is food for phytoplankton
for phytoplankton, which form the that form the foundation of
foundation of the marine food chain. the marine food chain. Marine
life thrives and improves
As Figure 1 shows, with an average growth rates in elevated CO2
pH of 8.1, the oceans are a long way conditions.
from turning acidic. It is likely that
media reports often use the word
“acidic” because it sounds scarier
than a more accurate description,
such as “a modeled, modest decline in
alkalinity.”

32 / Climate at a Glance / The Heartland Institute

 The Sea and Ice: Ocean Acidification

Figure 1. The pH Scale

Figure 1. Comparison of the pH of common substances. Source: U.S. Environmental Protection

Agency, “Measuring Acid Rain,” epa.gov, last accessed August 12, 2021, https://www.epa.gov/
acidrain/what-acid-rain

References:
1. Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, “What is Ocean Acidification?,” National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, accessed August 12, 2021, https://www.
pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/What+is+Ocean+Acidification%3F
2. K. Caldeira and M.E. Wickett, “Ocean Model Predictions of Chemistry Changes from
Carbon Dioxide Emissions to the Atmosphere and Ocean,” Journal of Geophysical
Research, Volume 110, September 21, 2005, https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.
com/doi/10.1029/2004JC002671
3. CO2 Coalition, Ocean Health: Is There an ‘Acidification’ Problem?, June 2020, accessed
August 12, 2021, http://co2coalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Steele-Ocean-
Health-White-Paper-final-5-28-20.pdf

The Heartland Institute / Climate at a Glance / 33

Climate at a Glance

Ocean Currents

O cean currents distribute heat

across the globe. The great ocean
conveyor moves water in a well-
Key Takeaways
known pattern, as seen in Figure 1.1 • For many years, global
warming activists claimed
For many years, some scientists and
global warming would soon
climate activists have claimed the
cause ocean currents to slow
world’s ocean currents are slowing
to a pace that has not been
down and that global warming is to
experienced in more than 1,000
blame. They have cited computer
years.
model simulations that predicted and
replicated a slowdown.2 Slower ocean • Climate activists claimed
currents, they claimed, would alter computer models predicted the
African and Indian rainfall patterns slowdown and that a slowdown
and impact Atlantic hurricanes. Addi- would cause disastrous
tionally, in 2019, op-eds and studies consequences on marine life.
claimed ocean currents had declined
to their slowest pace in 1,600 years.3,4 • They also suggested it could
cause a new “mini” ice age.
However, recent scientific research,
relying on real-world measurements, • However, recent peer-reviewed
shows ocean currents likely sped up research has falsified these
during the same periods that climate claims. The best-available
activists asserted global warming science shows ocean currents
had started to cause ocean currents to have sped up over the past 20
slow.5 It seems that scientists cannot years, not slowed down.
agree on whether ocean currents are
speeding up or slowing down. Either
way, the media wants you to believe
that human activity is the cause of the opment would be disastrous and that
change, rather than natural variations their computer models predicted this
in Earth’s climate system. Global would undoubtedly happen due to
warming activists cannot have it both global warming. Now that we know
ways. Ocean currents could not have ocean currents have been speeding
been both slowing down to record up, many of the same alarmists tell
lows during the past 20 years while us this change is also disastrous, and
also speeding up. that their computer models predicted
accelerating ocean currents all along.6
When climate change alarmists
thought ocean currents were slowing It is clear global warming activists are
down, they told the public this devel- continuously altering their claimed

34 / Climate at a Glance / The Heartland Institute

 The Sea and Ice: Ocean Currents

“climate crisis” to fit the evolving and ocean currents are always chang-
scientific evidence, rather than simply ing and always will, due mostly to
admitting the obvious: Earth’s climate natural causes.

Figure 1. Ocean Currents Around the World

Figure1. This figure illustrates how ocean currents affect heat distribution around the world. Source:
National Ocean Service, “What Is the Global Ocean Conveyor Belt?,” National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration, last updated February 26, 2021, https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/
conveyor.html

References:
1. National Ocean Service, “What Is the Global Ocean Conveyor Belt?,” National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration, last updated February 26, 2021, https://oceanservice.
noaa.gov/facts/conveyor.html
2. Nancy Bazilchuk, “In Deep Water: Will Essential Ocean Currents be Altered by Climate
Change?,” Scientific American, December 10, 2009, https://www.scientificamerican.
com/article/deep-water-ocean-currents-climate
3. Aylin Woodward, “The Film ‘The Day After Tomorrow’ Foretold a Real and Troubling
Trend: The Ocean’s Water-Circulation System Is Weakening,” Business Insider, March
25, 2019, https://www.businessinsider.com/day-after-tomorrow-was-right-and-wrong-
about-climate-shifts-2019-3
4. David Thronalley et al., “Anomalously Weak Labrador Sea Convection and Atlantic
Overturning During the Past 150 Years,” Nature, Volume 556, April 2018, https://
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29643484/#:~:text=Anomalously%20weak%20Labrador%20
Sea%20convection%20and%20Atlantic%20overturning,redistributing%20
heat%20and%20influencing%20the%20carbon%20cycle%3Csup%3E1%2C%20
2%3C%2Fsup%3E
5. Shijian Hu et al., “Deep-Reaching Acceleration of Global Mean Ocean Circulation Over
the Past Two Decades,” Science Advances, Volume 6, No. 6, February 2020, https://
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32076640
6. Stephanie Pappas, “Ocean Currents Are Getting Faster,” Live Science, February 6, 2020,
https://www.livescience.com/ocean-currents-speeding-up.html

The Heartland Institute / Climate at a Glance / 35

Climate at a Glance

Sea-Level Rise

G lobal sea level has risen more

than 400 feet since the end of
the last ice age glaciation. Global sea
Key Takeaways
levels have been rising at a relatively • Global sea levels have risen
steady pace of approximately 1 foot more than 400 feet since the
per century since at least the mid- beginning of the interglacial
1800s.1 One of the oldest tide-gauge period, and data show they
records of sea level, New York City’s have always risen between ice
“Battery,” shows a linear trend of 2.88 ages.
mm per year (0.113 inches per year)
since 1856, with very little, if any, • Sea levels have been rising at a
recent acceleration.2 (See Figure 1.) fairly steady pace since at least
the mid-1800s.
A smaller dataset of satellite data
going back to 1993 also shows little, • NASA satellite instruments,
if any, acceleration in the pace of with readings dating back to
sea-level rise.3 1993, show global sea levels
rising at a pace of merely 1.2
Perhaps most importantly, an inde- inches per decade.
pendent analysis of tide-gauge data,
which has a much longer record com- • Tide gauge data going back
pared to satellite data, found humans to the 1850s show a much
have likely had only a very modest lower rate, between 0.8 and 0.9
impact on long-term sea-level rise. inches per decade, with no hint
Climatologist Roy Spencer performed of acceleration.
the analysis, which is illustrated in
Figure 2.
Spencer’s analysis suggests humans’
contribution to sea-level rise could be
as little as three-tenths of an inch per
decade, or about three inches per cen-
tury. Natural sea-level rise accounts
for half an inch of sea-level rise
per decade, or 5 inches per century.
Combined, the rate of sea-level rise
is eight-tenths of an inch per decade,
or 8 inches per century, which is even
slower than what satellite instruments
report.

36 / Climate at a Glance / The Heartland Institute

 The Sea and Ice: Sea-Level Rise

Figure 1. Sea-Level Rise Recorded by the ‘Battery’ in New York

Figure 1. Tidal gauge measurements at the Battery in New York City illustrate there has been a
steady, modest pace of sea-level rise of a little more than 1 inch per decade since the 1850s. Source:
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “Relative Sea Level Trend, 8518750 The Battery,
New York,” Tides and Currents, tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov, accessed August 13, 2021, https://
tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=8518750

Figure 2. Global Sea-Level Rise, 1880–2013, from

Tide-Gauge Data

Figure 2. This figure shows sea-level rise dating back to 1880. Graph by Roy Spencer, Ph.D. For a
more detailed analysis, see Spencer’s article, which can be found in Note 4 in the References section
below.

The Heartland Institute / Climate at a Glance / 37

The Sea and Ice: Sea-Level Rise

References:
1. U.S. Geological Survey, “How Does Present Glacier Extent and Sea Level Compare to
the Extent of Glaciers and Global Sea Level During the Last Glacial Maximum?,” usgs.
gov, accessed August 16, 2021, https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/how-does-present-glacier-
extent-and-sea-level-compare-extent-glaciers-and-global-sea-level
2. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “Relative Sea Level Trend, 8518750
The Battery, New York,” Tides and Currents, tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov, accessed
August 13, 2021, https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.
shtml?id=8518750
3. Sea Level Research Group, “Global Mean Sea Level (Seasonal Signals Removed),”
University of Colorado, sealevel.colorado.edu, last accessed August 15, 2021, http://
sealevel.colorado.edu
4. Roy Spencer, “Sea Level Rise: Human Portion Is Small,” drroyspencer.com, May 25,
2018, accessed September 7, 2021, https://www.drroyspencer.com/2018/05/sea-level-
rise-human-portion-is-small

38 / Climate at a Glance / The Heartland Institute

Section 3

Temperature
and Extreme
Weather

Cold Spells ......................................... 40

Hurricanes .......................................... 41
Tornadoes .......................................... 44
Urban Heat Islands ............................ 46
U.S. Heat Waves ................................. 49
U.S. Temperatures ............................. 51
U.S. Wildfires ...................................... 54

The Heartland Institute / Climate at a Glance / 39

Climate at a Glance

Cold Spells

G lobal warming activists fre-

quently respond to polar vortex
events and other extreme cold weather
Key Takeaways
events by claiming climate change is • Objective data show global
to blame.1 Not only does blaming cold warming has not caused an
weather outbreaks on global warming increase in the frequency
defy common sense, it also defies or severity of cold weather
well-established scientific evidence events.
and the findings of the U.N. Intergov-
ernmental Panel on Climate Change • The U.N. Intergovernmental
(IPCC). The IPCC’s 2018 SREX report Panel on Climate Change
says it is “very likely” there have been reported in 2018 that it is
fewer very cold days and nights in re- “very likely” that there have
cent decades, and the report’s authors been fewer very cold days and
further claim it is “virtually certain” nights in recent decades.
that there will be “deceases in cold • The U.N. IPCC reports it is
extremes” due to global warming.2 “virtually certain” that there
will continue to be decreases
in cold-weather temperature
extremes.

References:
1. Justin Rowlatt, “Polar Vortex: What Role Does Climate Change Play?,” BBC News,
January 31, 2019, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47078054
2. Sonia Seneviratne and Neville Nicholls, coordinating lead authors, et al., “Changes
in Climate Extremes and their Impacts on the Natural Physical Environment,”
Chapter 3, Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance
Climate Change Adaptation (SREX). A Special Report of Working Groups I and II
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge
University Press, 2012), accessed August 14, 2021, https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/
uploads/2018/03/SREX-Chap3_FINAL-1.pdf

40 / Climate at a Glance / The Heartland Institute

Climate at a Glance

Hurricanes

D evastating hurricanes occurred

long before the invention of au-
tomobiles and coal-fired power plants,
Key Takeaways
and real-world hurricane activity • Many researchers have found
shows little, if any, impact from global there has been no increase in
warming. hurricanes as the planet has
modestly warmed.
The Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) has largely • The U.N. IPCC agrees, finding
agreed with this view. In its 2018 no increase in the frequency or
interim report, IPCC stated there is severity of hurricanes.
“only low confidence for the attribu-
tion of any detectable changes in trop- • The United States recently
ical cyclone activity to anthropogenic went through its longest period
influences.”1 Similarly, in the IPCC’s in recorded history without a
AR6 WG1 report, released in August major hurricane strike.
2021, the IPCC noted, “Identifying • The United States recently
past trends in TC [tropical storm] experienced its fewest total
metrics remains a challenge,” a state- hurricanes in any eight-year
ment that essentially admits scientists period.
have yet to identify a solid measurable
upward trend in the data.2 • Florida, America’s most
hurricane-prone state, recently
The IPCC’s findings are well support- underwent its longest period in
ed by objective hurricane and tropical recorded history without any
storm data.3 (See Figure 1.) hurricanes.
Most importantly for Americans, the
impacts hurricanes have on the United
States are at an all-time low. The Unit- (2009 through 2017).4 Additionally,
ed States recently went more than a America’s most vulnerable state for
decade (2005 through 2017) without a hurricanes, Florida, concluded an
major hurricane—a hurricane mea- 11-year period without a landfalling
suring Category 3 or higher—making hurricane of any size in 2016, the
landfall. That is the longest such peri- longest such period in recorded
od in recorded history.3 history.5 The Gulf of Mexico also
recently benefited from its longest
The United States also recently
hurricane-free period in recorded
experienced the fewest number
history (2013 through 2016).
of hurricane strikes in any eight-
year period in recorded history Whenever a hurricane forms, global

The Heartland Institute / Climate at a Glance / 41

Temperatures and Extreme Weather: Hurricanes

warming activists claim modestly storms that have already formed. This
warmer global ocean temperatures are is important to note, because scientists
“supercharging” the storms. However, have learned that global warming is
warm ocean water is just one factor likely to cause more wind shear in
in the formation and intensification of places where hurricanes form and
hurricanes. Wind shear inhibits strong intensify.6
storms from forming and rips apart

Figure 1. Global Tropical Cyclone Frequency

Figure 1. This figure shows that global hurricane and tropical cyclone activity is not increasing. Even
with the slight uptick in the number of tropical storms in 2021, it is still below the peak recorded in
1971. Source: Ryan N. Maue, “Global Tropical Cyclone Activity,” Climate Atlas, accessed August 14,
2021, http://climatlas.com/tropical/frequency_12months.png

42 / Climate at a Glance / The Heartland Institute

 Temperatures and Extreme Weather: Hurricanes

References:
1. Sonia Seneviratne and Neville Nicholls, coordinating lead authors, et al., “Changes
in Climate Extremes and their Impacts on the Natural Physical Environment,”
Chapter 3, Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance
Climate Change Adaptation (SREX). A Special Report of Working Groups I and II
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge
University Press, 2012), accessed August 14, 2021, https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/
uploads/2018/03/SREX-Chap3_FINAL-1.pdf
2. Sonia I. Seneviratne and Xuebin Zhang, coordinating lead authors, et al., “Weather
and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate,” Chapter 11, Climate Change
2021: The Physical Science Basis. A Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge,
U.K.: Cambridge University Press, in press, August 2021), accessed September 6, 2021,
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter_11.
pdf
3. Ryan N. Maue, “Global Tropical Cyclone Activity,” Climate Atlas, accessed August 14,
2021, http://climatlas.com/tropical/frequency_12months.png
4. Doyle Rice, “U.S. Experiencing Record Hurricane Drought, Just 4 Strikes in 7 Years,”
USA Today, July 12, 2016, https://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2016/07/12/us-
hurricane-drought/86990408
5. Barbara Hollingsworth, “U.S. Hits Record 129 Months Since Last Major Hurricane
Strike,” CNS News, July 15, 2016, https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/barbara-
hollingsworth/us-hits-record-129-months-last-major-hurricane-strike
6. University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, “Global
Warming Increases Wind Shear, Reduces Hurricanes, Climate Model Shows,” Science
Daily, April 18, 2007, https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/04/070417182843.
htm

The Heartland Institute / Climate at a Glance / 43

Climate at a Glance

Tornadoes

T ornadoes typically form when

very cold, dry air clashes with
warm, humid air. Global warming
Key Takeaways
warms the Arctic more than the tropics • The number of tornadoes in
and subtropics, resulting in less of a the United States has been
clash between cold Arctic air masses declining for the past 45 years.
and warm Gulf of Mexico air masses.
As a result, fewer and less violent • The number of strong
tornadoes are occurring today than tornadoes, rated as F3 or
in previous periods, despite media higher, has been dramatically
claims that tornadoes are getting more declining for the past 45 years.
frequent, stronger, or both.1,2 • In 2017–18, the United States
The number of tornadoes in the United set a record for the longest
States, as well as in other countries, period in history without a
has been slowly declining for the death caused by a tornado.
past 45 years. At the same time, the • In 2017–18, the United States
number of strong to violent tornadoes, set a record for the longest
F3 or higher, has been dramatically period in history without an F3
declining for the past 45 years. (See or stronger tornado.
Figure 1.) In fact, the United States
set a record in 2017–18 for the longest • According to a climate report
period in recorded history without by the United Nations, “There
a tornado death, and it set a record is low confidence in observed
for the longest period in history (306 trends in small spatial-scale
days) without an EF3 or stronger phenomena such as tornadoes.”
tornado.3,4 The two record-low years
for tornado strikes in the United States
both occurred this past decade, in
2014 and 2018.5
Further, even the alarmist U.N.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change has acknowledged, “There is
low confidence in observed trends in
small spatial-scale phenomena such as
tornadoes.”6

44 / Climate at a Glance / The Heartland Institute

 Temperatures and Extreme Weather: Tornadoes

Figure 1. U.S. Annual Count of Strong to Violent Tornadoes

(F3+), 1970–2020

Figure 1. This figure shows the frequency of strong to violent tornadoes (tornadoes registering F3 or
stronger) has been declining since the early 1970s. Sources: Graph by Anthony Watts using official
NOAA/Storm Prediction Center data.7,8,9

References:
1. Nsikan Akpan, “Is Climate Change Making U.S. Tornadoes Worse?,” Public Broadcasting
Service, March 5, 2019, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/is-climate-change-
making-u-s-tornadoes-worse
2. Bob Berwyn, “Is Climate Change Fueling Tornadoes?,” Inside Climate News, May
30, 2019, https://insideclimatenews.org/news/30052019/tornado-climate-change-
connection-science-research-data
3. Doyle Rice, “U.S. Sets Record of 246 Straight Days without a Tornado Death,” USA
Today, January 17, 2018, https://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2018/01/17/u-s-
sets-record-246-straight-days-without-tornado-death/1041125001
4. Chris Dolce, “Record-Long Streak With No EF3 or Stronger Tornadoes in the U.S. Ends
in Jacksonville, Alabama,” The Weather Channel, March 18, 2018, https://weather.
com/storms/tornado/news/2018-03-21-jacksonville-alabama-tornado-ends-ef3-united-
states-drought
5. Doyle Rice, “2018 Was an All-Time Record Quiet Year for Tornadoes in the U.S.,” USA
Today, December 28, 2018, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2018/12/28/
tornadoes-set-record-lows-2018-only-10-deaths-us/2431360002
6. U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Changes in Climate Extremes and
Their Impacts on the Natural Physical Environment, Chapter 3, 2018, accessed August
16, 2021, https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/SREX-Chap3_FINAL-1.pdf
7. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “Historical Records and Trends,”
accessed September 1, 2021, https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-information/
extreme-events/us-tornado-climatology/trends
8. Daniel McCarthy and Joseph Schaefer, “Tornado Trends over the Past Thirty Years,”
NOAA, National Weather Service, NWS, NCEP, Storm Prediction Center, accessed
8/16/21, https://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/mccarthy/tor30yrs.pdf
9. Graph data from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service,
Storm Prediction Center website, accessed August 16, 2021, https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm

The Heartland Institute / Climate at a Glance / 45

Climate at a Glance

Urban Heat Islands

T he majority of U.S. temperature

stations utilized for the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminis-
Key Takeaways
tration and NASA temperature re- • Urban heat islands, which grow
cords have been compromised by the with the size of cities, create
encroachment of artificial surfaces artificial warming at many
like concrete, asphalt, buildings, and long-term temperature stations.
air conditioner exhausts. The effects
of these manmade structures are often • On average, urban heat
referred to as urban heat islands. islands increase the global
(Figures 1 and 2 provide examples of surface temperature trend by
how temperature stations have been almost 50 percent.
compromised by urbanization.) • Nearly 90 percent of U.S.
Urban heat islands cause temperature temperature stations have been
data to display higher temperatures compromised by urbanization
than what would have been recorded effects.
if the same stations were located away • About half of the reported
from urban areas. Some researchers U.S. warming effectively
have found urban heat islands are disappears in the data when
responsible for almost half of reported analysts consider only those
U.S. warming. When only non-urban stations that have not been
temperature stations are used, warm- corrupted by heat islands.
ing trends are still present in the data,
depending on the period examined,
but they are minimal and not at all
There is also strong evidence of
alarming.1
other, similar siting problems in other
The data in Figure 3 show temperature parts of the world, including at many
stations that have not been corrupted official weather stations. This suggests
by the urban heat island effect report the same urban heat island corruptions
significantly less warming than tem- that have occurred in U.S. data are
perature stations corrupted by urban also present in data compiled from
heat island impacts.2 Still, despite this other countries. Researchers at the
well-known problem, corrupted tem- Oak Ridge National Laboratory con-
perature stations compose a majority firmed this theory in important work
of the stations used to report official published in 2019.5
U.S. temperature data.3

46 / Climate at a Glance / The Heartland Institute

 Temperatures and Extreme Weather: Urban Heat Islands

Figure 1. Weather Station Used to Gather Climate Data in a

Parking Lot at the University of Arizona

Figure 1. U.S. Historical Climatology Network weather station used to collect climate data. This
station is located in a parking lot at the University of Arizona in Tucson. The station was previously
located in a grassy area, but researchers moved the station as the campus grew. Photo by Anthony
Watts.

Figure 2. NOAA Temperature Sensor in Ardmore, Oklahoma

Figure 2. NOAA temperature sensor (used for climate data) located on street corner in Ardmore,
Oklahoma. Note that the sensor’s data is being corrupted by heating signatures of the nearby
building, asphalt, and automobiles. Photo by Anthony Watts.

The Heartland Institute / Climate at a Glance / 47

Temperatures and Extreme Weather: Urban Heat Islands

Figure 3. A Comparison of Corrupted and Uncorrupted

Temperature Station Data

Figure 3. Uncorrupted stations (classes one and two) report much less warming than stations
corrupted by urban heat island factors (classes three, four, and five). Source: Anthony Watts, Is the
U.S. Surface Temperature Record Reliable?, The Heartland Institute and SurfaceStations.org, 2009,
https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/publications/SurfaceStations.pdf

References:
1. See Anthony Watts et al., “New Study of NOAA’s U.S. Climate Network Shows a Lower
30-Year Temperature Trend When High Quality Temperature Stations Unperturbed by
Urbanization Are Considered,” press release, American Geophysical Union, December
16, 2015, displaying parts of a presentation delivered before the American Geophysical
Union, https://web.archive.org/web/20160331214630/https://fallmeeting.agu.
org/2015/press-item/new-study-of-noaas-u-s-climate-network-shows-a-lower-30-
year-temperature-trend-when-high-quality-temperature-stations-unperturbed-by-
urbanization-are-considered
2. Anthony Watts et al., “Comparison of Temperature Trends Using an Unperturbed
Subset of the U.S. Historical Climatology Network,” poster presentation, American
Geophysical Union, December 16, 2015, https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.
com/2015/12/agu-poster-watts-website-release.pdf
3. See Anthony Watts, Is the U.S. Surface Temperature Record Reliable?, The Heartland
Institute and SurfaceStations.org, 2009, https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/
documents/publications/SurfaceStations.pdf
4. Ronald D. Leeper et al., “Impacts of Small-Scale Urban Encroachment on Air
Temperature Observations,” Journal of the American Meteorological Society, Volume
58, Issue 6, June 1, 2019, https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JAMC-D-19-0002.1

48 / Climate at a Glance / The Heartland Institute

Climate at a Glance

U.S. Heat Waves

H eat waves have always been a

natural part of the climate in
much of the United States, and there is
Key Takeaways
no strong evidence that shows global • In recent decades in the United
warming is making heat waves more States, heat waves have been
severe or frequent, when put in the far less frequent and severe
proper historical context. The lion’s than they were in the 1930s.
share of the modest warming that has
occurred over the past few decades • The all-time high temperature
has largely affected winter tempera- records set in most states
tures, locations closer to the poles, occurred in the first half of the
and temperatures recorded at night in twentieth century.
some regions. • The most accurate nationwide
As Figure 1 shows, there has been temperature station network,
no sustained increase in daily high implemented in 2005, has
temperatures since at least 2005, when shown no sustained, substantial
the National Oceanic and Atmospher- increase in daily high
ic Administration launched its most temperatures in the United
accurate temperature station network, States since its inception.
the Climate Reference Network.1,2
Further, the data illustrated in Figure
2 show extended periods of very high Objective data show the all-time high
temperatures were much more common temperature records set in most states
in the 1930s than they have been in the occurred in the first half of the twen-
present decade. Moreover, recent heat tieth century, decades before anyone
wave frequency and intensity remain in was talking about man-caused climate
line with the historical norm. change.3

References:
1. U.S. Climate Reference Network, National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration’s (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information, accessed
August 17, 2021, https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/crn
2. U.S. Climate Reference Network, “Average Surface Temperature, January 2005 to
July 2021,” ncdc.noaa.gov, National Climatic Data Center, National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration, last accessed August 14, 2021, https://bit.ly/3k8jRfD
3. Patrick Michaels, “Newly Found Weather Records Show 1930s as Being Far Worse than
the Present for Extreme Weather,” World Climate Report, reposted to Watts Up with
That, wattsupwiththat.com, July 14, 2012, https://bit.ly/3k8OIIN

The Heartland Institute / Climate at a Glance / 49

Temperatures and Extreme Weather: U.S. Heat Waves

Figure 1. Contiguous U.S. High Temperature Anomalies

Figure 1. High surface temperature anomalies in the United States, January 2005 to July 2021.
Source: U.S. Climate Reference Network, “Average Surface Temperature, January 2005 to
July 2021,” ncdc.noaa.gov, National Climatic Data Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, last accessed August 14, 2021, https://bit.ly/3k8jRfD

Figure 2. Heat Wave Index for the Contiguous United States,

1895–2020

Figure 2. This figure shows the annual values of the U.S. Heat Wave Index, from 1895 to 2020. These
data cover the contiguous 48 states. This index defines a heat wave as a period lasting at least
four days with an average temperature that would only be expected to occur once every 10 years,
based on the historical record. The index value for a given year depends on how often heat waves
occur and how widespread they are. Source: Graph from Environmental Protection Agency, “Climate
Change Indicators: Heat Waves,” accessed August 14, 2021, https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/
climate-change-indicators-heat-waves#%20. Data Source: K. Kunkel, Figure 2.3 in “Weather and
Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate,” U.S. Climate Change Science Program: Synthesis and
Assessment Product 3.3, originally published in 2008, updated in 2021, accessed August 14, 2021,
www.globalchange.gov/browse/reports/sap-33-weather-and-climate-extremes-changing-climate

50 / Climate at a Glance / The Heartland Institute

Climate at a Glance

U.S. Temperatures

T he United States has experienced

no significant warming since
2005. The lack of warming is docu-
Key Takeaways
mented by the National Oceanic and • There has been no significant
Atmospheric Administration’s U.S. warming in the United States
Climate Reference Network, an ex- since 2005.
tremely accurate network of tempera-
ture stations located throughout the • Any claimed recent warming
United States. Unlike other tempera- and impacts at specific
ture data, Climate Reference Net- places in the United States
work data does not require corrective are isolated and indicative
adjustments to account for environ- of random variation, not a
mental factors that alter the accuracy long-term warming trend.
of recorded temperatures. • Thermometer readings in the
Figure 1 illustrates there has been no United States suggest current
significant increase in the number temperatures are similar to
of temperature anomalies since the those temperatures recorded
start of 2006.1,2 Thus, when climate eight decades ago.
activists have claimed in recent years
that warming has caused various
U.S. environmental problems, it’s not appear as though recent temperatures
possible their assessments are accu- are comparably much higher than the
rate, unless it can be shown the U.S. unadjusted data suggest. (See Figure
Climate Reference Network data is 2.)
wrong, and as far as we’re aware, no
credible scientific agency has attempt- Another factor that has distorted tem-
ed to make that claim. perature data is the poor placement of
temperature stations that are not part
Further, long-term warming in the of the Climate Reference Network.
United States has been modest, at Many stations’ data have been affected
worst. Thermometer readings report by urbanization, resulting in tempera-
current temperatures are no higher ture inaccuracies.3, 4
today than they were 80 years ago, a
reality that has been masked in large The raw, unadjusted data, shown in
part by government agencies that have Figure 2, clearly illustrates recent
chosen to adjust temperatures from temperatures are likely the same or
past decades downward, making it nearly the same as they were in the
1930s, and perhaps even lower.5

The Heartland Institute / Climate at a Glance / 51

Temperatures and Extreme Weather: U.S. Temperatures

Figure 1. Contiguous U.S. Average Temperature Anomalies

Figure 1. Average surface temperature anomalies in the United States, January 2005 to July 2021.
Source: U.S. Climate Reference Network, “Average Surface Temperature, January 2005 to
July 2021,” ncdc.noaa.gov, National Climatic Data Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, last accessed August 14, 2021, https://bit.ly/3k8jRfD

Figure 2. USHN Monthly Measured vs. Adjusted Temperatures

Figure 2. U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) data. The blue line represents unadjusted
thermometer readings, which show temperatures are no higher now than they were 80 years
ago. Source: Tony Heller, “61% of NOAA USHCN Adjusted Temperature Data Is Now Fake,”
realclimatescience.com, February 11, 2019, https://realclimatescience.com/2019/02/61-of-noaa-
ushcn-adjusted-temperature-data-is-now-fake

52 / Climate at a Glance / The Heartland Institute

 Temperatures and Extreme Weather: U.S. Temperatures

References:
1. U.S. Climate Reference Network, National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration’s (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information, accessed
August 17, 2021, https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/crn
2. U.S. Climate Reference Network, “Average Surface Temperature, January 2005 to
July 2021,” ncdc.noaa.gov, National Climatic Data Center, National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration, last accessed August 14, 2021, https://www.ncdc.noaa.
gov/temp-and-precip/national-temperature-index/time-series?datasets%5B%5D=uscr
n&parameter=anom-tavg&time_scale=p12&begyear=2005&endyear=2021&month=12
3. See Anthony Watts, Is the U.S. Surface Temperature Record Reliable?, The Heartland
Institute and SurfaceStations.org, 2009, https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/
documents/publications/SurfaceStations.pdf
4. See Anthony Watts et al., “New Study of NOAA’s U.S. Climate Network Shows a Lower
30-Year Temperature Trend When High Quality Temperature Stations Unperturbed by
Urbanization Are Considered,” press release, American Geophysical Union, December
16, 2015, displaying parts of a presentation delivered before the American Geophysical
Union, https://web.archive.org/web/20160331214630/https://fallmeeting.agu.
org/2015/press-item/new-study-of-noaas-u-s-climate-network-shows-a-lower-30-
year-temperature-trend-when-high-quality-temperature-stations-unperturbed-by-
urbanization-are-considered
5. Tony Heller, “61% of NOAA USHCN Adjusted Temperature Data Is Now Fake,”
realclimatescience.com, February 11, 2019, https://realclimatescience.com/2019/02/61-
of-noaa-ushcn-adjusted-temperature-data-is-now-fake

The Heartland Institute / Climate at a Glance / 53

Climate at a Glance

U.S. Wildfires

W ildfires, especially in arid

parts of the United States,
have always been a natural part of
Key Takeaways
the environment, and they likely • Compared to the first half
always will. Global warming did not of the twentieth century, the
create wildfires. In fact, wildfires number of wildfires occurring
have become less frequent and less in the United States over the
severe in recent decades. One of the past decade is lower, and the
key contributing factors has been that fires have been less severe.
the United States has experienced
fewer droughts in recent decades than • In years in which there has
in periods throughout the twentieth been an increase in wildfire
century.1 activity over the past decade,
the fires have usually involved
The U.S. National Interagency Fire substantially fewer acres of
Center (NIFC) provides data about burnt land compared to much
U.S. wildfires dating back to 1926. of the twentieth century.
NIFC data show the number of acres
burned in recent years has been far • Even in the worst wildfire
less than it was during the early seasons occurring recently,
twentieth century. (See Figure 1.) The wildfires typically burned
number of acres burned in modern one-fifth to half as much
wildfires is roughly one-fourth to one- land as standard wildfire
fifth of the size of the record values seasons during the early
that occurred in the 1930s. At that twentieth century.
time, the peak wildfire burn was great- • Drought is the key climate
er than 52 million acres. From 2010 to factor for wildfires, an import-
2020, the peaks were typically just 10 ant consideration because the
million acres or less.2 United States has experienced
relatively few droughts recently.
Some climate activists cite a rela-
tively small upward trend, starting in • Data showing greater numbers
1983, in the number of acres burned of acres lost to wildfires in pre-
by wildfires as evidence that climate vious decades were removed
change has been making wildfires from an important database
considerably worse. However, the data by a government fire agency,
show that trend is minor compared likely because the data did not
to the much longer historical record. support the claim that wildfires
Wildfires burned far more acres, on are becoming more frequent.
average, prior to 1950.

54 / Climate at a Glance / The Heartland Institute

 Temperatures and Extreme Weather: U.S. Wildfires

Even more disturbing, climate activ- supposedly unreliable data had been
ists and several scientists have de- used in peer-reviewed scientific publi-
leted significant amounts of wildfire cations for many decades.
data from years prior to the start of
the upward trend, making it appear By disappearing all data prior to 1983,
as though the United States is in the which happens to be the lowest point
midst of a much greater trend than the in the dataset for the number of fires,
historical record shows. NIFC data now suggest wildfires
are getting much worse and that the
In March 2021, NIFC removed wild- number of fires is aligned with global
fire data from years prior to 1983. The temperature. Without a distorted data-
stated justification for the decision was set, these dire claims about wildfires
that data are allegedly “unreliable,” an would be impossible to make with any
assertion that should be viewed with degree of credibility. (See Figure 2.)
great skepticism considering that this

Figure 1. Wildland Fires: Number of Acres Burned in the United

States, 1926–2019

Figure 1. Available wildfire acreage burned, by year, in the United States, 1926 to 2019. This includes
data from NIFC prior to the disappearance of data that occurred in 2021. Source: Graph by Anthony
Watts.

The Heartland Institute / Climate at a Glance / 55

Temperatures and Extreme Weather: U.S. Wildfires

Figure 2. A Comparison of NIFC Datasets, Number of Acres

Burned in the United States, 1926–2020 and 1983-2020

Figure 2. A comparison of NIFC wildfire datasets. It illustrates that when NIFC agreed to remove
wildfire data for the years prior to 1983, it provided the public with a distorted view of wildfires. Graphs
by Anthony Watts.

References:
1. See Climate at a Glance, “Drought,” The Heartland Institute, accessed August 15, 2021,
https://climateataglance.com/climate-at-a-glance-drought/
2. National Interagency Fire Center, “Total Wildfire Acreage Burned by Year in the United
States, 1983 to 2020,” data last accessed on August 16, 2021, https://www.nifc.gov/
fireInfo/fireInfo_stats_totalFires.html

56 / Climate at a Glance / The Heartland Institute

Section 4

Humans and
Animals

Climate Refugees ............................... 58

COVID-19’s Impact on
CO2 Levels ...................................... 61
Livestock and Methane ..................... 64
Malaria and Mosquito-Borne
Diseases .......................................... 66
Polar Bears ......................................... 69

The Heartland Institute / Climate at a Glance / 57

Climate at a Glance

Climate Refugees

F or the past 30 years, climate

activists have claimed that
islands, cities, and even entire nations
Key Takeaways
would spawn millions of refugees, as • The asserted causes of so-
climate change makes many places called “climate refugees”—
inhospitable or uninhabitable. In increasing crop failures,
1989, for example, a senior U.N. catastrophic weather events,
environmental official claimed that and islands lost to rising seas—
“entire nations could be wiped off the have not materialized.
face of the Earth by rising sea levels
if the global warming trend is not • Despite much fear-mongering,
reversed by the year 2000.”1 a majority of the islands
some climate alarmists
Similarly, in 2005, the United Nations have predicted would be
claimed, “Rising sea levels … will associated with producing
create up to 50 million environmental climate refugees due to sea-
refugees by the end of the decade.”2 level rise have had their
land mass increase in recent
Those predictions proved to be false,
decades, not shrink.
along with hundreds of others made
by climate change alarmists. To avoid • Nearly all of the nations that
embarrassment, the United Nations are expected to produce
removed the prediction—which we climate refugees due to
reprint here, as Figure 1—of “50 crop failures have benefited
million environmental refugees” from in recent years from
its website.3 steadily increasing crop yields.
As documented in the Climate at a • The United Nations confirms
Glance article “Islands and Sea Level casualties linked to climate-
Rise” (see page 30), most small islands, related natural disasters have
including the islands of Tuvalu, are declined this century.
growing in size, not shrinking due to
rising sea levels.4 Further, nearly every
nation is benefiting from steadily the past 100 years, as seen in Figure 2.6
increasing crop yields, which have
improved in part because of recent The factors that climate alarmists
modest warming periods.5 And the claim will soon cause numerous
number of climate-related disasters, climate refugee crises are not present
as well as the number of victims from and, in many cases, are actually
those disasters, has been declining over becoming less common and/or severe.

58 / Climate at a Glance / The Heartland Institute

 Humans and Animals: Climate Refugees

Figure 1. U.N. Map Predicting Where 50 Million Climate Change

Refugees Will Move

Figure 1. Original map created in 2005 by the United Nations to illustrate where “50 million climate
refugees” would move. The map has since been removed from the internet by the United Nations.
Source: Anthony Watts, “The UN ‘Disappears’ 50 Million Climate Refugees, then Botches the
Disappearing Attempt,” WattsUpWithThat, April 2011, https://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/04/15/the-un-
disappears-50-million-climate-refugees-then-botches-the-disappearing-attempt/

Figure 2. Number of Climate-Related Disasters per Year by

Disaster Sub-Group, 2000–2019

Figure 2. This chart published by the United Nations shows a downward trend in the number of
climate-related disasters. Source: Nima Yaghmaei et al., The Human Cost of Disasters: An Overview
of the Last 20 Years (2000-2019), U.N. Office for Disaster Risk Reduction and Centre for Research
on the Epidemiology of Disasters, October 13, 2020, https://www.undrr.org/media/48008/download

The Heartland Institute / Climate at a Glance / 59

Humans and Animals: Climate Refugees

References:
1. See Eric Worrall, “30 Year Anniversary of the UN 1989 ‘10 Years to Save the World’
Climate Warning,” WattsUpWithThat, June 30, 2019, https://wattsupwiththat.
com/2019/06/30/30-year-anniversary-of-the-un-1989-10-years-to-save-the-world-
climate-warning
2. David Adams, “50 Million Environmental Refugees by End of Decade, UN Warns,” The
Guardian (U.K.), October 12, 2005, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2005/
oct/12/naturaldisasters.climatechange1
3. Anthony Watts, “The UN ‘Disappears’ 50 Million Climate Refugees, then Botches the
Disappearing Attempt,” WattsUpWithThat, April 2011, https://wattsupwiththat.
com/2011/04/15/the-un-disappears-50-million-climate-refugees-then-botches-the-
disappearing-attempt
4. The Heartland Institute, “Islands and Sea Level Rise,” Climate at a Glance, accessed
August 15, 2021, https://climateataglance.com/climate-at-a-glance-islands-and-sea-
level-rise
5. The Heartland Institute, “Crop Production,” Climate at a Glance, accessed August 15,
2021, https://climateataglance.com/crop-production
6. The Global Warming Policy Foundation, “UN Disasters Report Is a Huge Blunder and
Embarrassment,” press release, October 12, 2020, https://www.thegwpf.com/un-
disasters-report-is-a-huge-blunder-and-embarrassment

60 / Climate at a Glance / The Heartland Institute

Climate at a Glance
COVID-19’s Impact on CO2 Levels

G overnments’ response to the

COVID-19 pandemic caused
a worldwide reduction in economic
Key Takeaways
activity, as businesses closed, airlines • The global economy
canceled flights, energy production shrank as a consequence of
and consumption fell, and people the lockdowns instituted in
sheltered in their homes.1 However, response to the COVID-19
some climate activists celebrated the pandemic.
economic shutdowns, arguing that they
created the largest-ever drops in global • Despite crashing economies
CO2 emissions.2 and large cutbacks in
travel, industry, and
Climate activists expected this eco- energy generation, climate
nomic downtown to result in reduced scientists have yet to find a
energy use and fewer CO2 emissions substantial decline in
globally, which did occur. China’s atmospheric CO2 levels.
CO2 emissions declined by 40 per-
cent. U.S. energy-related CO2 emis- • The lack of a strong reduction
sions also dropped significantly in in atmospheric CO2 connected
2020. However, the global decline in to the energy-use decline
human emissions did not cause a de- linked to the COVID-19
cline or pause in atmospheric carbon pandemic suggests that climate
dioxide concentrations.3,4,5 activists’ calls for global
energy use reductions would
University of Alabama climate scien- be ineffective in limiting
tist Roy Spencer studied the effect of atmospheric CO2 levels. These
the pandemic lockdowns on atmo- policies would, however, cause
spheric CO2 concentrations and found significant economic harm.
very little, if any, correlation.6 Spencer
conducted his analysis by removing
from his data the effects of the large NOAA’s Earth System Research
CO2 cycle that occurs during seasonal Laboratories also studied the issue and
plant photosynthesis processes, as well concluded, “That drop in emissions
as the average effects from El Nino needs to be large enough to stand out
and La Nina events, which change from natural CO2 variability caused
the rate of ocean outgassing of CO2. by how plants and soils respond to
The results showed that there was no seasonal and annual variations of tem-
substantial downtown in global atmo- perature, humidity, soil moisture, etc.
spheric CO2 levels, despite reduced These natural variations are large, and
CO2 emissions.6,7,8 (See Figure 1.) so far, the ‘missing’ emissions do not

The Heartland Institute / Climate at a Glance / 61

Humans and Animals: COVID-19’s Impact on CO2 Levels

stand out.”10 fuel use, automobile use, airline

travel, beef consumption, etc., would
Clearly, there is no indication that likely have little or no impact on
the forced reductions in economic atmospheric CO2 concentrations,
activity and human CO2 emissions unless imposed dramatically and
had any effect on global CO2 levels, over the long term. Of course, that
suggesting that natural forces, would undoubtedly be accompanied
such as ocean outgassing of CO2, by an equivalent long-term reversal
overwhelmed humans’ contributions. in economic progress and living
This further suggests that calls from standards.
climate activists to reduce fossil-

Figure 1. Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations

Figure 1. Using a simple method for removing the large seasonal cycle from the Mauna Loa CO2
data, as well as the average effects from El Nino and La Nina events, Spencer analyzed atmospheric
CO2 concentrations during the height of the COVID-19 lockdowns and found there was no obvious
downturn in global CO2 levels. It is worth noting that USA Today conducted a fact check on this issue
and found the same result.9 Source: Roy Spencer, “March 2020 CO2 Levels at Mauna Loa Show
no Obvious Effect from Global Economic Downturn,” drroyspencer.com, April 7, 2020, https://www.
drroyspencer.com/2020/04/march-2020-co2-levels-at-mauna-loa-show-no-obvious-effect-from-global-
economic-downturn

62 / Climate at a Glance / The Heartland Institute

 Humans and Animals: COVID-19’s Impact on CO2 Levels

References:
1. Josh Zumbrun, “Coronavirus-Afflicted Global Economy Is Almost Certainly in
Recession,” The Wall Street Journal, April 14, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/
coronavirus-afflicted-global-economy-is-almost-certainly-in-recession-11586867402
2. Tobias Hoonhout, “Dem Rep. Told Colleagues Coronavirus Bill Is ‘Tremendous
Opportunity to Restructure Things to Fit Our Vision,’” National Review, March 23,
2020, https://www.nationalreview.com/news/dem-rep-told-colleagues-coronavirus-
bill-is-tremendous-opportunity-to-restructure-things-to-fit-our-vision
3. Lauren Sommer, “Why China’s Air Has Been Cleaner During the Coronavirus
Outbreak,” National Public Radio, March 4, 2020, https://www.npr.org/sections/
goatsandsoda/2020/03/04/811019032/why-chinas-air-has-been-cleaner-during-the-
coronavirus-outbreak
4. U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Short Term Energy Outlook,” May 2020,
accessed August 15, 2021, https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/may20.pdf
5. NASA, “Seasonal Changes in Carbon Dioxide,” Scientific Visualization Studio, May 4,
2017, accessed August 15, 2021, https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4565
6. Roy Spencer, “Is the COVID-19 Economic Downturn Affecting Atmospheric CO2?
Mauna Loa Data Say, Not Yet,” drroyspencer.com, March 22, 2020, https://www.
drroyspencer.com/2020/03/is-the-covid-19-economic-downturn-affecting-atmospheric-
co2-mauna-loa-data-say-not-yet
7. Roy Spencer, “Why the Current Economic Slowdown Won’t Show Up in the
Atmospheric CO2 Record,” drroyspencer.com, May 15, 2020, http://www.drroyspencer.
com/2020/05/why-the-current-economic-slowdown-wont-show-up-in-the-
atmospheric-co2-record
8. Roy Spencer, “March 2020 CO2 Levels at Mauna Loa Show no Obvious Effect from
Global Economic Downturn,” drroyspencer.com, April 7, 2020, https://www.
drroyspencer.com/2020/04/march-2020-co2-levels-at-mauna-loa-show-no-obvious-
effect-from-global-economic-downturn
9. Matthew Brown, “Fact check: The Coronavirus Pandemic Isn’t Slowing Climate
Change,” USA Today, May 11, 2020, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/
factcheck/2020/05/11/fact-check-coronavirus-pandemic-isnt-slowing-climate-
change/3090790001/
10. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “Can We See a Change in the
CO2 Record Because of COVID-19?,” NOAA Earth System Research Laboratories, May
2020, https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/covid2.html

The Heartland Institute / Climate at a Glance / 63

Climate at a Glance

Livestock and Methane

C limate activists often claim that

ranchers, livestock, and meat pro-
duction are a leading cause of rising
Key Takeaways
greenhouse gas emissions and global • American ranchers and meat
warming. However, the U.S. Environ- consumption have virtually no
mental Protection Agency (EPA) has impact on overall greenhouse
compiled information on greenhouse gas emissions or climate
gas emissions by source. According change.
to EPA, beef production accounts
for 2 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas • EPA reports cattle and beef
emissions, while livestock production production account for
accounts for less than 4 percent of 2 percent of U.S. greenhouse
U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.1 gas emissions.

By contrast, U.S. agricultural crop • EPA reports all livestock

production emits more greenhouse account for less than 4 percent
gases than total livestock produc- of U.S. greenhouse gas
tion. This is the case even though the emissions.
United States leads the world in beef
production.2
as a serious problem, data show U.S.
Livestock primarily impact green- methane emissions have fallen over
house gas emissions through methane the past three decades. According
released when livestock burp or pass to EPA, methane emissions dropped
gas. Although this is often presented from 1990 to 2018.3

References:
1. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions
and Sinks,” epa.gov, accessed August 15, 2021, https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/
inventory-us-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-sinks
2. Rob Cook, “Ranking of Countries that Produce the Most Beef (USDA),” Beef2Live.
com, citing data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, August 16, 2021, https://
beef2live.com/story-world-beef-production-ranking-countries-0-106885
3. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “Greenhouse Gas Inventory Data Explorer,”
accessed August 15, 2021, https://cfpub.epa.gov/ghgdata/inventoryexplorer

64 / Climate at a Glance / The Heartland Institute

 Humans and Animals: Livestock and Methane

Figure 1. Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector

Figure 1. Greenhouse gas emissions by sector in the United States. Note that beef production is
less than half of the entire livestock sector, at just 2 percent. Source: Data from U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency. Graphic by Anthony Watts. Artwork icons in graphic licensed from 123rf.com.

The Heartland Institute / Climate at a Glance / 65

Climate at a Glance
Malaria and Mosquito-Borne Diseases

C laims that higher temperatures

will cause more malaria cases and
deaths are contradicted by real-world
Key Takeaways
evidence. As the Earth has warmed • The number of malaria
in recent decades, malaria cases and deaths occurring globally has
deaths have declined in nearly all declined in recent decades,
areas of the world. If global warming not increased, despite modest
causes more malaria cases, we certain- global warming.
ly should have witnessed additional
deaths related to malaria by now. • The death toll for malaria
worldwide has been cut in half
The World Health Organization since 2000.
(WHO) publishes global estimates
of the number of people who die • There have been no recorded
from malaria. Since 2000, the global malaria deaths in North
death toll has been cut in half—from America or Europe since
839,000 deaths in 2000 to 438,000 1990, even though malaria
in 2015—according to a report by deaths were frequent on both
WHO.1 continents in the early 1900s.

Africa is the region of the world that • If global warming causes an

is most affected by malaria, with nine uptick in mosquito-borne
out of every 10 malaria victims living diseases, malaria being the
in Africa. As shown in Figure 1, Afri- most prevalent, the world
ca is also the region that has achieved should have already seen a
the most progress in preventing death substantial increase in illnesses
from malaria, even as the Earth has and deaths from malaria and
modestly warmed. other mosquito-borne diseases,
not a dramatic decline.
As detailed in Chapter Four of Cli-
mate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil
Fuels, the vast body of scientific liter- malaria from 1990 through 2017.3
ature refutes climate activists’ claim
that climate change is likely to exac- Even though media attempts continue
erbate the spread of mosquito-borne to raise a false alarm, peer-reviewed
diseases.2 Further, as seen in Figure research demonstrates there is simply
2, Australia, Europe, North Ameri- no link at all between mosquito-borne
ca, South America, and the United diseases and a modestly warming
Kingdom reported zero deaths from world.4,5

66 / Climate at a Glance / The Heartland Institute

 Humans and Animals: Malaria and Mosquito-Borne Diseases

Figure 1. Global Malaria Deaths by Region of the World

Figure 1. Global Malaria Deaths by Region, 2000–2015. Source: Max Roser and Hannah Ritchie,
“Malaria,” Our World in Data, Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, last updated October 2019,
https://ourworldindata.org/malaria#malaria-death-estimates-from-who

Figure 2. Death Rate from Malaria, 2017

Figure 2. The map visualization shows the age-standardized death rate caused by malaria, measured
as the number of deaths per 100,000 individuals. Note that Africa is where the vast majority of
cases occur. Source: “Death Rates from Malaria, 2017,” Our World in Data, Oxford Martin School,
University of Oxford, accessed August 15, 2021, https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/malaria-death-
rates?time=1990

The Heartland Institute / Climate at a Glance / 67

Humans and Animals: Malaria and Mosquito-Borne Diseases

References:
1. Max Roser and Hannah Ritchie, “Malaria,” Our World in Data, Oxford Martin School,
University of Oxford, last updated October 2019, https://ourworldindata.org/
malaria#malaria-death-estimates-from-who
2. Roger Bezdek, Craig Idso, David Legates, S. Fred Singer, lead authors, Climate
Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels (Arlington Heights, IL: Nongovernmental
International Panel on Climate Change, 2018), ISBN 978-1-934791-59-2, http://
climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-fossil-fuels/
3. “Death Rates from Malaria, 2017,” Our World in Data, Oxford Martin School,
University of Oxford, accessed August 15, 2021, https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/
malaria-death-rates?time=1990
4. Zoe Corbyn, “Global Warming Wilts Malaria, Transmission of Infectious Parasites Slows
with Rising Temperatures, Researchers Find,” Nature, nature.com, December 21, 2011,
https://www.nature.com/news/global-warming-wilts-malaria-1.9695
5. H. Sterling Burnett, “NPR Makes False Connection Between Climate Change and
Disease,” Climate Realism, August 28, 2020, http://climaterealism.com/2020/08/npr-
makes-false-connection-between-climate-change-and-disease

68 / Climate at a Glance / The Heartland Institute

Climate at a Glance

Polar Bears

C limate alarmists often speculate

that even a modest amount of
warming would reduce Arctic ice and
Key Takeaways
food availability so much that it would • Polar bear populations have
push polar bears to extinction. The increased dramatically during
evidence suggests this is false, how- recent decades, despite the
ever. Polar bears evolved hundreds modest global warming that
of thousands of years ago and have has occurred over the same
thrived under much warmer climatic period.
conditions than those that exist today,1
including during the Mid-Holocene • The estimated polar bear
Warm Period, which lasted for 2,000 population has nearly
years and occurred between 5,000 to quadrupled since 1950, rising
7,000 years ago.2 from 10,000 bears in 1950 to
as many as 39,000 bears today.
After dropping to a low of 10,000
bears in 1950, during the middle of • Polar bears evolved between
a global cooling period, polar bear six million years ago and
numbers have quadrupled to as many 350,000 years ago, and they
as 39,000 today. Further, polar bear survived and even thrived in
experts, such as Susan Crockford, much warmer climates than
have documented at length how polar what we’re seeing today.
bear populations have managed to
increase despite a modestly warming
world.3 (See Figure 1.)
Contrary to the many dire claims
made by climate alarmists about
polar bears, proof of declining polar
bear populations essentially vanishes
when all of the available data are
considered.4

The Heartland Institute / Climate at a Glance / 69

Humans and Animals: Polar Bears

Figure 1. Global Polar Bear Population Size Estimates

Figure 1. Global polar bear population. Source: Susan J. Crockford, The Polar Bear Catastrophe
That Never Happened, Chapter 10 (London, U.K.: The Global Warming Policy Foundation, 2019).

References:
1. Polar Bears International, “The Evolution of the Polar Bear,” polarbearsinternational.
org, accessed August 15, 2021, https://polarbearsinternational.org/polar-bears/name-
evolution
2. National Centers for Environmental Information, “Mid-Holocene Warm Period,”
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, accessed August 15, 2021, https://
www.ncdc.noaa.gov/global-warming/mid-holocene-warm-period
3. Susan J. Crockford, State of the Polar Bear Report 2018, The Global Warming Policy
Foundation, February 2019, accessed August 15, 2021, https://www.thegwpf.org/
content/uploads/2019/02/State-of-the-polar-bear2018.pdf
4. Susan J. Crockford, The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened, Chapter 10
(London, U.K.: The Global Warming Policy Foundation, 2019).

70 / Climate at a Glance / The Heartland Institute

Section 5

Scientific
and Policy
Controversies

Climate Sensitivity ............................. 72

Carbon Dioxide Taxes ....................... 74
Consensus ......................................... 76
Energy Subsidies ............................... 78
National Security ................................ 80

The Heartland Institute / Climate at a Glance / 71

Climate at a Glance

Climate Sensitivity

C limate sensitivity is a measure

of how much the Earth’s climate
will cool or warm after a change in the
Key Takeaways
climate’s system. In scientific circles, • Predictions that Earth will soon
climate sensitivity is usually linked to experience substantial global
the degree to which temperature will warming rely on the belief
be affected by a doubling in carbon that there is a high climate
dioxide concentrations in the atmo- sensitivity to a doubling of
sphere.1 (See Figure 1.) carbon dioxide emissions in
the atmosphere.
Declaring future predictions of global
warming as “settled science” requires • For decades, scientists have
a fairly precise calculation of future debated the Earth’s climate
temperatures. However, since climate sensitivity, due to the uncertain
sensitivity gained scientific visibility nature of climate feedback in
more than 40 years ago, scientists and various models.
climate models have produced a very
broad range of potential future tem- • Estimates in peer-reviewed
perature patterns, strongly indicating studies range from eight-tenths
that no one model can be deemed re- of a degree C warming to almost
liable enough for policymakers to de- 6 degrees C warming by 2100.
pend upon.2 Mainstream calculations • Such a large range means
for a doubling of atmospheric carbon climate model temperature
dioxide range from eight-tenths of a projections are dubious, at best,
degree Celsius warming to almost 6 and cannot provide a reliable
degrees C of warming by 2100.3 estimate that policymakers can
If climate scientists don’t understand depend upon.
the Earth’s atmosphere well enough • The best evidence indicates cli-
to nail down a true climate sensitivity mate sensitivity is at the lower
estimate for increased carbon diox- end of the estimated range, un-
ide, how can we trust climate model likely to exceed 1.5 degrees C
projections of future warming that rely in the twenty-first century.
on such an uncertain value?
Further, dire estimates about climate
sensitivity have been undercut by observation data suggest global
real-world data. Climate sensitivity warming occurring this century is
estimates from real-world atmospheric unlikely to exceed 1.5 degrees C.

72 / Climate at a Glance / The Heartland Institute

 Scientific & Policy Controversies: Climate Sensitivity

Figure 1. Factors that Determine Climate Sensitivity

Figure 1. After increasing carbon dioxide levels, there is an initial warming. This warming could be
amplified or reduced by the net effect of various feedbacks (weather processes that change the
characteristics of the planet). Diagram by Femkemilene from WikiMedia Commons.

References:
1. David L. Chandler, “Explained: Climate Sensitivity,” MIT News, March 19, 2010, http://
news.mit.edu/2010/explained-climate-sensitivity
2. Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment, a report of an Ad Hoc Study
Group on Carbon Dioxide and Climate, Climate Research Board of the National
Research Council, published by the National Academy of Sciences, July 1979, accessed
August 19, 2021, doi:10.17226/12181, https://web.archive.org/web/20110813231807/
http://www.atmos.ucla.edu/~brianpm/download/charney_report.pdf
3. Schwartz et. al, “Earth’s Climate Sensitivity: Apparent Inconsistencies in Recent
Assessments,” Earth’s Future, Volume 2, Issue 12, November 7, 2014, https://agupubs.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014EF000273
4. Richard S. Lindzen and Yong-Sang Choi, “On the Observational Determination of
Climate Sensitivity and Its Implications,” Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science,
article number 377, August 28, 2011, doi:10.1007/s13143-011-0023-x, https://link.
springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs13143-011-0023-x
5. Roy Spencer and William Braswell, “On the Misdiagnosis of Surface Temperature
Feedbacks from Variations in Earth’s Radiant Energy Balance,” Remote Sensing, July
25, 2011, doi:10.3390/rs3081603, http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/
Spencer_Misdiagnos_11.pdf
6. David Herring, “Are There Positive Benefits from Global Warming?,” climate.gov,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, October 29, 2020, https://www.
climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/are-there-positive-benefits-global-warming

The Heartland Institute / Climate at a Glance / 73

Climate at a Glance

Carbon Dioxide Taxes

A carbon dioxide tax is a fee

imposed on the use of carbon-
based fuels, such as coal, oil, and
Key Takeaways
natural gas.1 Although carbon • A “revenue-neutral” carbon
dioxide taxes have often been touted dioxide tax is devised to be
as “revenue neutral,” the purpose revenue neutral for government
of a carbon dioxide tax is to make and only for government.
conventional energy so expensive that
people will be coerced into buying • A “revenue-neutral” carbon
wind and solar power, which is dioxide tax is not revenue
already very expensive. neutral for U.S. households.

Under a “revenue-neutral” carbon • Nearly all advocates of a

dioxide tax system, energy bills and carbon dioxide tax seek to
prices for goods and services through- impose the tax in addition
out the economy increase dramatically to other government
because industries and individuals restrictions on carbon dioxide,
rely increasingly more on expensive not in place of them.
wind and solar power. If people were • “Mainstream” carbon dioxide
to purchase expensive wind and solar taxes of $50 per metric
power exclusively, there wouldn’t be ton would likely raise gasoline
any carbon dioxide taxes to collect, so prices 44 cents per gallon, at
no revenue would be collected. When minimum.
that happens, the carbon dioxide tax
becomes revenue neutral for govern- • “Mainstream” carbon dioxide
ment but inflicts substantial costs on taxes of $50 per metric
households. ton would likely raise natural
gas and coal prices—which
Analysts have repeatedly found that account for nearly two-
carbon dioxide taxes would raise ener- thirds of U.S. electricity
gy costs, affecting all consumers. For generation—62 percent and
example, researchers Marc Hafstead 330 percent, respectively.
and Paul Picciano conducted an analy-
sis that estimated carbon dioxide taxes
of $50 per metric ton would raise
gasoline prices 44 cents per gallon in
the United States.3 (See Figure 1.) The two-thirds of U.S. electricity genera-
same tax would raise natural gas and tion—by 62 percent and 330 percent,
coal prices—which account for nearly respectively.

74 / Climate at a Glance / The Heartland Institute

 Scientific & Policy Controversies: Carbon Dioxide Taxes

Figure 1. Economic Effects of Carbon Dioxide Taxes

Figure 1. The costs added to common home and business fuels after the imposition of a carbon
dioxide tax of $50/ton, based on common fuel prices in 2015. Source: Marc Hafstead and Paul
Picciano, “Calculating Various Fuel Prices under a Carbon Tax,” resources.org, November 28, 2017,
https://www.resources.org/common-resources/calculating-various-fuel-prices-under-a-carbon-tax

References:
1. Tax Foundation, “What Is a Carbon Tax?,” Tax Basics, taxfoundation.org, accessed
August 15, 2021, https://taxfoundation.org/tax-basics/carbon-tax
2. H. Sterling Burnett, “There Is No Revenue-Neutral Carbon-Dioxide Tax,” heartland.org,
The Heartland Institute, December 4, 2020, https://www.heartland.org/news-opinion/
news/there-is-no-revenue-neutral-carbon-dioxide-tax
3. Marc Hafstead and Paul Picciano, “Calculating Various Fuel Prices under a Carbon Tax,”
resources.org, November 28, 2017, https://www.resources.org/common-resources/
calculating-various-fuel-prices-under-a-carbon-tax

The Heartland Institute / Climate at a Glance / 75

Climate at a Glance

Consensus

S cience is the evaluation of

evidence, not a mere vote or show
of hands. Throughout the course of
Key Takeaways
human history, there have been many • Facts and scientific evidence
periods during which a majority of should always trump claims of
scientists have wrongly concluded “consensus.”
all sorts of erroneous assertions
about the natural world and human • A majority of scientists
beings. It was the scientific method, (including skeptics) believe the
not consensus, that has allowed our Earth is warming and humans
understanding of the universe to are playing a role, but a strong
expand. majority of scientists have said
they are not deeply concerned
Nevertheless, to the extent people about it.
claim a scientific consensus exists
about climate change and its potential • The key debate between
dangers, there has been only a single alarmists and skeptics is
scientific organization whose full the issue of climate change
membership has been polled on impacts, not whether humans
climate change issues, the American are causing some degree of
Meteorological Society (AMS), and warming.
the evidence shows AMS members are • If policymakers do choose
not deeply concerned about the effects to rely on consensus, the
of climate change. only consensus that ought to
Although surveys of AMS members matter is whether scientists
show two-thirds believe humans are are extremely worried about
causing a majority of recent warming,1 climate change.
the polling results reveal only about
30 percent are very worried about it. change—not a total or near-total
And almost as many—28 percent— overhaul of the global economy,
said they are “not at all worried” or as so many climate alarmists have
“not very worried.” A plurality of suggested.
respondents (42 percent) reported they
are only “somewhat worried,” which Further, it is important to note that
would seem to indicate they would 40 percent of AMS members believe
only support monitoring the scientific climate change impacts have been
evidence and perhaps implementing primarily beneficial or equally mixed
some modest, cost-effective programs between beneficial and harmful, and
to deal with the effects of climate only half said they expect the impacts

76 / Climate at a Glance / The Heartland Institute

 Scientific & Policy Controversies: Consensus

to be entirely or primarily harmful Others have served as official state

over the next 50 years. climatologists or have worked for
important government agencies,
Finally, there have been numerous such as NASA and NOAA.3 Among
prominent scientists and scientific the many influential scientists who
organizations that have openly have questioned the causes and/or
and consistently rejected the view consequences of the alleged climate
that humans are causing a climate change “consensus” are several giants
change catastrophe, including climate of the scientific world of the past
experts with experience working at half-century, such as Freeman Dyson,
MIT, Harvard, Columbia, Princeton, S. Fred Singer, Richard Lindzen, and
and Penn, among many other well- Will Happer.
respected academic institutions.

References:
1. Center for Climate Change Communication, A 2016 Survey of American Meteorological
Society Members About Climate Change, George Mason University, March 2016,
https://www.climatechangecommunication.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/AMS_
Member_Survey_Report_2016.pdf
2. James Taylor, “NAS Climate Panel Fails the Laugh Test,” Forbes, May 18, 2011, https://
www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2011/05/18/nas-climate-panel-fails-the-laugh-test
3. Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Why Scientists Disagree About
Global Warming (Arlington Heights, IL: The Heartland Institute, 2016), https://
www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/Books/Why%20Scientists%20
Disagree%20Second%20Edition%20with%20covers.pdf

The Heartland Institute / Climate at a Glance / 77

Climate at a Glance

Energy Subsidies

C limate activists often assert that

fossil-fuel companies benefit
from massive federal subsidies,
Key Takeaways
so to level the playing field, wind • Fossil fuels and conventional
and solar subsidies are necessary. energy resources receive
However, the U.S. Energy Information relatively few federal
Administration reports that the wind subsidies.
and solar industries each receive more
federal subsidies than all conventional • On its own, wind power
energy sources combined.1 (See receives more subsidies than
Figure 1.) all conventional energy sources
combined.
Further, indirect subsidies add to the
imbalance. Wind and solar businesses • Similarly, the solar power
often get widespread access to free industry receives more
production on federal lands. They also subsidies than all conventional
require lengthy and expensive trans- energy sources combined.
mission lines, but typically don’t pay
for them. Wind and solar also benefit
from renewable power mandates,
which force consumers in 29 states to
purchase a set amount of electricity
from “renewable” sources. Wind and
solar energy sources further impose
extra burdens and costs on baseload
conventional energy due to the unpre-
dictability of wind and solar power.
In response to these facts, wind and
solar power advocates try to count-
er—often without documentation—by
asserting that conventional energy has
historically received disproportionate
subsidies from the federal govern-
ment. Even if that were true, two
wrongs don’t make a right, and con-
sumers should not have to pay higher
taxes today to balance out subsidies
from, say, the 1950s.

78 / Climate at a Glance / The Heartland Institute

 Scientific & Policy Controversies: Energy Subsidies

Figure 1. Wind and Solar Power Subsidies in Fiscal Years 2010,

2013, and 2016

Figure 1. This table shows that the wind and solar power industries each receive more subsidies than
all conventional energy sources combined. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Direct
Federal Financial Interventions and Subsidies in Energy in Fiscal Year 2016,” Independent Statistics
and Analysis, Tables 3 and 4, April 2018, https://www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/subsidy/pdf/subsidy.
pdf

References:
1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Direct Federal Financial Interventions and
Subsidies in Energy in Fiscal Year 2016,” Independent Statistics and Analysis, Tables 3
and 4, April 2018, https://www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/subsidy/pdf/subsidy.pdf

The Heartland Institute / Climate at a Glance / 79

Climate at a Glance

National Security

E conomic strength is the most

important factor in determining a
nation’s ability to fund and deploy a
Key Takeaways
powerful military over the long term. • Climate activism, not climate
America’s economic might is one of change, poses a significant
the primary reasons it has, by far, the threat to U.S. national security.
world’s most capable military, even
though Russia and Canada are larger • The economic strength of the
in size, geographically, and China and United States is the single
India have far more people. greatest factor for ensuring
the American military remains
Affordable energy is the lifeblood dominant.
of America’s economy. Forcing
businesses, households, and • Proposals to restrict U.S.
government agencies to unnecessarily carbon dioxide emissions
depend on expensive energy sources would impose expensive,
would reduce economic output and unstable energy sources on
limit America’s ability to fund and Americans that could destroy
deploy a robust military. Thus, climate the U.S. economy.
activism puts U.S. national security at • Earth’s modest recent warming
grave risk. is reducing national security
Although climate activists claim “threat multipliers,” such as
global warming is increasing national crop failures and weather-
security “threat multipliers,” the truth related catastrophes.
is, the opposite is happening. Even
if one accepts climate alarmists’
dubious claims that weather events and wildfires have all declined in
like droughts and floods pose a recent decades relative to the long-
serious threat to U.S. national term historical record.1
security interests, or that climate
change is causing or will soon One of the most important examples
cause waves of climate refugees to is global crop production, which has
stream across America’s borders, experienced consistent growth in the
Earth’s modest recent warming twenty-first century, in large part due
has actually had a net beneficial to the presence of higher-than-usual
impact on extreme weather events atmospheric carbon dioxide and
and agriculture. For instance, the modest warming trends. Global crop
frequency and severity of droughts, yields have set new records nearly
crop failures, weather-related deaths, every year, reducing climate-related

80 / Climate at a Glance / The Heartland Institute

 Scientific & Policy Controversies: National Security

pressures for people to flee their By contrast, rare earth minerals are
countries.2 necessary for the construction of
wind and solar power equipment.
Additionally, the United States is one China produces and refines more
of the world’s leading producers of the rare earth minerals than the rest of
coal, oil, and natural gas that power the world combined.4 Restricting
the American and global economies.3 U.S. conventional energy sources
This affords Americans energy and switching to a wind- and/or
security and allows them to bolster solar-based economy would place
allies against the threat of geopolitical the United States and its allies at the
energy threats. mercy of the Chinese Communist
Party.5

References:
1. See various articles on climate-related weather events published by Climate at a
Glance, The Heartland Institute, climateataglance.com.
2. U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, “World Food Situation,” fao.org, March 12,
2020, http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/en
3. Robert Rapier, “The Ten Countries That Dominate World Fossil Fuel Production,”
Forbes, June 14, 2019, https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2019/07/14/ten-countries-
that-dominate-fossil-fuel-production
4. Melissa Pistilli, “10 Top Countries for Rare Earth Metal Production,” Rare Earth
Investing News, March 23, 2021, https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/
critical-metals-investing/rare-earth-investing/rare-earth-metal-production
5. James Taylor, “Global Warming Energy Restrictions Threaten U.S. National Security,”
Policy Brief, The Heartland Institute, March 2019, https://www.heartland.org/_
template-assets/documents/publications/GlobalWarmingNatSec.pdf

The Heartland Institute / Climate at a Glance / 81

 Climate at a Glance
for Teachers and Students:
Facts for Climate Realists on
30 Prominent Climate Topics

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