Calculating the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a widely used statistical
measure for quantifying precipitation anomalies over varying time scales,
ranging from 1 month to several years. It is particularly useful in
identifying meteorological droughts by comparing precipitation against
historical averages. Below is the complete methodology for calculating
SPI:
Interpretation of SPI Values
SPI Value Drought/Anomaly Condition
≥ 2.0 Extremely wet
1.5 to 1.99 Very wet
1.0 to 1.49 Moderately wet
-0.99 to 0.99 Near normal
-1.0 to -1.49 Moderately dry
-1.5 to -1.99 Severely dry
≤ -2.0 Extremely dry
Methodology for Calculating SPI Using Google Earth Engine (GEE)
Google Earth Engine (GEE) is a cloud-based geospatial analysis platform that
allows users to calculate and analyze drought indicators like the Standardized
Precipitation Index (SPI) efficiently. Below is a step-by-step explanation of how
to compute SPI using GEE without diving into specific code.
Step 1: Choose a Precipitation Dataset
Start by selecting a high-quality precipitation dataset available in GEE. Some
commonly used options are:
CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station
Data): Provides daily and monthly precipitation data from 1981 to the
present.
ERA5 (ECMWF Reanalysis): Offers daily reanalysis precipitation data
with high spatial and temporal resolution.
GPM (Global Precipitation Measurement): A satellite-based dataset for
global precipitation monitoring.
Choose a dataset based on the region, time range, and resolution requirements.
Step 2: Define the Region and Time Period
Specify the area of interest (e.g., a country, watershed, or specific region) and the
time period for analysis. GEE allows global or regional data extraction and
historical trend analysis.
Step 3: Aggregate Precipitation Data
Aggregate the precipitation data to the desired time scale, such as:
1-month SPI: For short-term droughts affecting crops or vegetation.
3-month SPI: Reflects seasonal droughts impacting agriculture and water
resources.
6-month or 12-month SPI: Indicates long-term hydrological droughts.
This involves summing precipitation data over rolling time windows (e.g., a 3-
month SPI requires adding precipitation for January, February, and March, then
February, March, and April, and so on).
Step 4: Fit a Probability Distribution
For SPI computation, fit a probability distribution to the precipitation data at each
time scale. The gamma distribution is commonly used as it effectively models
precipitation variability.
Estimate the shape (α\alphaα) and scale (β\betaβ) parameters of the gamma
distribution using statistical techniques.
Incorporate the proportion of zero precipitation values into the analysis, as
many regions may experience periods with no rainfall.
Step 5: Calculate the Cumulative Probability
Compute the cumulative probability of the observed precipitation values using the
fitted gamma distribution. This involves determining the probability of receiving
precipitation less than or equal to the observed value at each time step.
Step 6: Standardize the Probability
Transform the cumulative probability values into z-scores using the inverse
standard normal distribution function. This standardization converts the
precipitation anomalies into a standardized scale with a mean of 0 and a standard
deviation of 1.
Positive SPI values indicate wetter-than-normal conditions.
Negative SPI values indicate drier-than-normal conditions, with the severity
of drought increasing as the SPI becomes more negative.
Step 7: Visualize the Results
Use GEE's visualization tools to map the SPI values over time and space. Apply
color palettes to highlight areas experiencing drought (e.g., red for severe drought
and green for wet conditions).
Step 8: Export the Results
Export the computed SPI values as geospatial files (e.g., GeoTIFF) or tabular data
(e.g., CSV) for further analysis. This allows integration with other tools like GIS
software or statistical programs.
Step 9: Validate the Results
Compare the calculated SPI values with ground-based observations or existing
drought reports to ensure accuracy. Validation improves confidence in the
reliability of the SPI results for decision-making.
Advantages of Using GEE for SPI
Scalability: Analyze large datasets over global or regional scales efficiently.
Historical Analysis: Access decades of historical precipitation data for long-
term drought trend analysis.
Integration: Combine SPI with other drought indicators like vegetation
health (NDVI) or soil moisture for a comprehensive assessment.
Real-Time Monitoring: Use near real-time precipitation data for continuous
drought monitoring.
