Summary: Probabilities
- Random experiment: It is an operation of elements from elements randomly.
- Sample space: It is the set of all possible outcomes, and denoted by Ω.
- Event: It is a part of the sample space Ω. It is usually described by a sentence.
- Certain event: It is always occurring.
- Impossible event: It is never happens.
- The event ‹‹ and ›› is .
- The event « or » is .
- The complementary event of A is .
- ̅ ; ̅ ; .
( )
- The probability of is: ( ) ( )
.
- If one element is selected, then to calculate P(A) we use a fraction.
- If two or more elements are selected, then to calculate P(A) we use a formula ( ; or ).
( ) ( )
- ( ) ( ) ; ( ) ( ) .
( ) ( )
- For any event of Ω, we have: ( ) .
- ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ).
- If and are two incompatible events, then , therefore ( ) ( ) ( ).
- ( ) ( ).
- ( ) ( ).
- Note that: ; .
- ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ; ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ).
1
Conditional probability:
Consider two events and of a sample space Ω.
( ) is called the conditional probability of the event knowing that the event has occurred.
( )
( ) can be calculated using the formula: ( ) .
( )
Remarks:
- ( ) ( ) but ( ) ( ).
- ( ) ( ) but ( ) ( ).
Independent events – Dependent events:
Two events and of a sample space Ω are said to be independent if the incidence of one of them
does not affect the probability of the other, that is: ( ) ( ). In this case:
( ) ( ) ( ).
Two events and of a sample space Ω are said to be dependent if the incidence of one of them
affects the probability of the other, that is: ( ) ( ). In this case:
( ) ( ) ( ) or ( ) ( ) ( ).
Tree diagram:
The tree-diagram is a tree where the corresponding probabilities are placed on each branch as indicated below:
Rules
- Each knot corresponds to a state of the experience.
- The sum of the probabilities of the branches coming from the same knot is 1.
Total probability:
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ).