🎲 What is Probability (in simple words)?
Probability tells you how likely something is to happen.
If something can’t happen, its probability is 0.
If something must happen, its probability is 1.
Most things are in-between, like 0.5 (which means a 50% chance).
🎯 Formula (for equally likely outcomes)
Probability=Favorable OutcomesTotal Possible Outcomes\text{Probability} = \frac{\
text{Favorable Outcomes}}{\text{Total Possible
Outcomes}}Probability=Total Possible OutcomesFavorable Outcomes
Now let’s go term-by-term with real-life examples:
🔑 Important Terms (Super Simple)
1. ✅ Experiment
An experiment is just any activity where you don’t know what will happen before doing it.
📌 Example: Tossing a coin is an experiment — you don’t know if you’ll get Heads or Tails.
2. ✅ Sample Space (S)
The sample space is the list of all possible results (outcomes) of an experiment.
📌 Example: Tossing a coin
Sample space = {Heads, Tails}
📌 Example: Rolling a die
Sample space = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
3. ✅ Event (E)
An event is what you are looking for or interested in.
📌 Example: You roll a die and want a number greater than 4.
That’s your event: E = {5, 6}
📌 Example: Drawing a red card from a deck
Event = any red card (Hearts or Diamonds)
So: Event = A specific outcome or group of outcomes from the sample space
4. ✅ Favorable Outcomes
These are the outcomes that match your event — they are the “wins” in your scenario.
📌 Example: You roll a die. What's the probability of getting a 3?
Favorable outcomes = {3} → only one!
📌 Example: Tossing a coin — probability of getting Heads
Favorable outcome = {Heads}
📌 Summary Table (with simple examples)
Term Meaning Example
Experiment An activity with uncertain result Tossing a coin
Sample Space All possible outcomes {Heads, Tails}
Event What we want Getting Heads
Favorable Outcomes The “wins” for our event Just {Heads} in this case
📘 2. Types of Events
✅ A. Mutually Exclusive Events
🔍 What It Means:
Two events that cannot happen at the same time.
If Event A happens, Event B can’t.
If Event B happens, Event A can’t.
📌 Example:
You roll a die once.
What is the probability of getting a 3 or a 5?
Let’s break it down:
Sample space (S): {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Event A: Getting a 3 → A = {3}
Event B: Getting a 5 → B = {5}
🧠 Can both 3 and 5 happen at the same time in one roll?
❌ No! Only one number can appear in one roll.
So: A and B are Mutually Exclusive
📐 Rule:
P(A or B)=P(A)+P(B)P(A \text{ or } B) = P(A) + P(B)P(A or B)=P(A)+P(B)
✅ Solved Example 1:
❓ What is the probability of getting a 3 or a 5?
P(3) = 1/6
P(5) = 1/6
P(3 or 5)=16+16=26=13P(3 \text{ or } 5) = \frac{1}{6} + \frac{1}{6} = \frac{2}{6} = \frac{1}
{3}P(3 or 5)=61+61=62=31
🎯 Final Answer: 1/3
✅ Solved Example 2:
A card is drawn from a deck of 52.
Let A = drawing a King,
Let B = drawing a Queen
Can you get both a King and a Queen in one draw? ❌ No.
So they are mutually exclusive.
P(King) = 4/52
P(Queen) = 4/52
P(King or Queen)=452+452=852=213P(King \text{ or } Queen) = \frac{4}{52} + \frac{4}{52} = \
frac{8}{52} = \frac{2}{13}P(King or Queen)=524+524=528=132
🎯 Final Answer: 2/13
✅ Solved Example 3:
You roll a die.
A = getting an even number → {2, 4, 6}
B = getting an odd number → {1, 3, 5}
👉 Can you get both an odd and an even number at once? ❌ No
➡️Mutually exclusive
P(Even or Odd)=P(Even)+P(Odd)=36+36=1P(Even \text{ or } Odd) = P(Even) + P(Odd) = \
frac{3}{6} + \frac{3}{6} = 1P(Even or Odd)=P(Even)+P(Odd)=63+63=1
🎯 Final Answer: 1 (Makes sense — every number is either even or odd!)
✅ B. Independent Events
🔍 What It Means:
Two events are independent if the result of one does not affect the other.
📌 Real-Life Example:
You toss two coins.
Coin 1 result: Heads or Tails
Coin 2 result: Heads or Tails
The outcome of Coin 1 doesn’t change what happens with Coin 2 → Independent
📐 Rule:
P(A and B)=P(A)⋅P(B)P(A \text{ and } B) = P(A) \cdot P(B)P(A and B)=P(A)⋅P(B)
✅ Solved Example 1:
You toss 2 coins.
What is the probability of both showing Heads?
P(H on 1st) = 1/2
P(H on 2nd) = 1/2
P(HandH)=12⋅12=14P(H and H) = \frac{1}{2} \cdot \frac{1}{2} = \frac{1}{4}P(HandH)=21⋅21
=41
🎯 Final Answer: 1/4
✅ Solved Example 2:
You roll a die and toss a coin.
What is the probability of getting a 6 and a Head?
P(6 on die) = 1/6
P(Head on coin) = 1/2
P(6 and H)=16⋅12=112P(6 \text{ and } H) = \frac{1}{6} \cdot \frac{1}{2} = \frac{1}
{12}P(6 and H)=61⋅21=121
🎯 Final Answer: 1/12
✅ Solved Example 3:
You pick a card from a deck, put it back, then pick again.
Let A = drawing an Ace
Let B = drawing a King
Since you replace the card, both draws are independent
P(Ace) = 4/52
P(King) = 4/52
P(A and B)=452⋅452=162704=1169P(A \text{ and } B) = \frac{4}{52} \cdot \frac{4}{52} = \
frac{16}{2704} = \frac{1}{169}P(A and B)=524⋅524=270416=1691
🎯 Final Answer: 1/169
🟦 PART 1: Conditional Probability
✅ What is it? (Super Simple)
Conditional probability is the chance that something happens given that something else
already happened.
We write it as:
P(A∣B)=Probability of A given B already happenedP(A|B) = \text{Probability of A given B
already happened}P(A∣B)=Probability of A given B already happened
✅ Formula:
P(A∣B)=P(A∩B)P(B)P(A|B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)}P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B)
🧠 How to Know It’s a Conditional Probability Question?
Look for phrases like:
"Given that..."
"If ___ already happened..."
"What is the probability of ___ assuming ___?"
📦 Real-Life Example:
A box has 5 red balls and 3 green balls.
You take out 1 ball and it's red.
Now, what’s the probability the next one is also red?
First red is already taken → this changes the total.
So this is conditional probability.
🎯 Solved Questions (Step-by-step)
🔢 Q1. A deck has 52 cards.
What is the probability that a second card is a heart given that the first card was also a
heart? (No replacement)
✅ Step 1: There are 13 hearts in a deck.
First heart: P=1352P = \frac{13}{52}P=5213
One heart is taken out → 12 hearts left, 51 cards remaining
✅ Step 2:
P(2nd Heart | 1st Heart)=1251P(\text{2nd Heart | 1st Heart}) = \frac{12}
{51}P(2nd Heart | 1st Heart)=5112
🔢 Q2. A class has 7 boys and 3 girls. Two students are selected without replacement.
What is the probability the second student is a girl given the first is a girl?
✅ Step 1:
First girl taken → now only 2 girls left
Total now = 9 students
✅ Step 2:
P(2nd is Girl | 1st is Girl)=29P(\text{2nd is Girl | 1st is Girl}) = \frac{2}
{9}P(2nd is Girl | 1st is Girl)=92
🔢 Q3. A machine produces 90% good items. 10% are defective.
If an item is already known to be defective, what’s the probability it came from Machine A
(details given)?
👉 This is actually a Bayes’ theorem problem (we’ll do this below).
🔢 Q4. Bag A has 2 red & 3 green balls. Bag B has 4 red & 1 green.
One bag is chosen at random. Then, a red ball is picked.
What is the probability that it came from Bag B?
👉 This is also a Bayes’ theorem question.
(More on that in the next section.)
🔢 Q5. There are 5 men and 5 women in a team.
If one person is chosen randomly and is a woman, what is the chance that the second
person (without replacement) is a man?
✅ Step 1:
After 1 woman is chosen → 5 men, 4 women left = 9 total
✅ Step 2:
P(2nd is man | 1st is woman)=59P(\text{2nd is man | 1st is woman}) = \frac{5}
{9}P(2nd is man | 1st is woman)=95
