Analysis of Life Data

Introduction
• Reliability Life Data Analysis refers to the study and
modeling of observed product lives.
• Life data can be lifetimes of products in the
marketplace, such as the time the product operated
successfully or the time the product operated before
it failed.
• These lifetimes can be measured in hours, miles,
cycles-to-failure, stress cycles or any other metric
with which the life or exposure of a product can be
measured

2
 Definitions of Terms
• Failure rate = the number of failures per million
hours of operation λ =1/MTBF
• Failure: the state of inability of an item to perform
its required function
• Reliability = the probability that an item will perform
a required function, under specified conditions, for a
specified period of time, at a desired confidence
level. (MTBF or Failure rate, λ)
• Minimum life = time to first failure
3
 Definitions, cont.
• Confidence level = probability that a given statement is
correct

• Confidence limits = the extremes of a confidence interval

within which the unknown has a designated probability of
being included

• The minimum life of a device = the time of occurrence of the

first failure.

• Pareto analysis = plot of individual failures versus the

frequency of the failures.

4
 Overview of Data Analysis
• Life data analysis requires the practitioner to:
– Gather life data for the product.
– Select a lifetime distribution that will fit the data and
model the life of the product.
– Estimate the parameters that will fit the distribution to
the data.
– Generate plots and results that estimate the life
characteristics of the product, such as the reliability or
mean life.

5
 Overview of Data Analysis
• Frequency distributions and Histograms
• Stem plots and Dot plots
• Box (and Whisker) plots
• Normal probability plots

6
 Probability Plotting
• Probability plotting is a graphical method for determining whether
sample data conform to a hypothesized distribution based on a
subjective visual examination of the data.
• Probability plotting involves plotting the failure times and
associated unreliability estimates on specially constructed
probability plotting paper.
• Probability plotting typically uses special graph paper, known as
probability paper, that has been designed for the hypothesized
distribution. Probability paper is widely available for the normal,
lognormal, Weibull, and various chi-square and gamma
distributions.
• The form of this paper is based on a linearization of the CDF of the
specific distribution.

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 Linearizing the Unreliability Function
Weibull:
(4a)
pdf:f(t
B()*e -

• 2-parameter Weibull distribution

=

-(t)
inventabilty*Ifdt=
cat: 1 - e

• This function can then be linearized (i.e., put in the common

form of format) as follows:

F(t) =

F(t)
en(-en x -

-B

sencys 3 Int

y mx + c
=

pend 8
 Steps for Plotting
• The steps for determining the parameters of the pdf representing the
data, using probability plotting are outlined in the following instructions

• 1) First, rank the times-to-failure in ascending order as shown.

• 2) Obtain their median rank plotting positions. Median rank positions are
used instead of other ranking methods because median ranks are at a
specific confidence level (50%). Median ranks can be found tabulated in
many reliability books. They can also be estimated using the following
equation

where i is the failure order number and N is the total sample size.

• 3) Find the parameters

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 Normal Distribution
• For the normal distribution, the cumulative density
function can be written as

or

where

10
 Normal Distribution
• Let,

• Which results in linear equation

11
 i failure order
no.

Normal Distribution
=

MR
yx00
=

• Example ↑

• Seven units are put on a life test

and run until failure. The failure
times are 85, 90, 95, 100, 105, 110
and 115 hours.

• Assuming a normal distribution,

estimate the Parameters using
probability plotting.
t I MR
0.3 9.43%
↓
↓
1- >
-

x 100
=

Median time
85 1 FCH QCt MRY
=

7 0.4 failure
=

to
+

N7
=

90 2
23 x 100 22.85%
=

↓
0.4 e
confidence
7+
95 3 50%
12
i "
Normal Probability Plot

13
Normal Probability Plot

↑
MI0

110 range: 67%

50
6
+
84%
=

50
-57 15%
=

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 Normal Probability Plot
• The estimate of µ is determined from the time value at the
50% unreliability level, which in this case is 100 hours. The
value of the estimator of σ is determined by Eqn.

↓
Std. deviation
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 Lognormal Distribution
• Probability plotting involves plotting the failure times and
associated unreliability estimates on specially constructed
probability plotting paper. The form of this paper is based on
a linearization of the CDF of the specific distribution. For the
lognormal distribution, the cumulative density function can
be written as:

16
Lognormal Distribution

17
 Lognormal Probability Plot

Example
• Eight units are put on a life
test and tested to failure.
The failures occurred at 45,
140, 260, 500, 850, 1400,
3000 and 9000 hours.
Estimate the parameters
for the lognormal
distribution using
probability plotting.
T
ascending order
18
Lognormal Probability Plot

84.14.

15.8%

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 Lognormal Probability Plot
• The natural logarithm of the time where the fitted line
intersects Q(t) = 50% is equivalent to μ1 . In this case, μ1 =
6.45. The value for σT’ is equal to the difference between
the natural logarithms of the times where the fitted line

Fir
crosses Q(t) = 50% and Q(t) = 15.85%.
• At Q(t) = 15.85%, ln(t) = 4.55.
• Therefore, -
⑧

Right skewed lognormal

σT’ = 6.45 - 4.55 = 1.9. distribution

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 Exponential Distribution
• Estimation of the parameters for the exponential distribution
via probability plotting is very similar to the process used
when dealing with the Weibull distribution.

• Due to the nature of the exponential cdf, the exponential

probability plot is the only one with a negative slope.

• This is because the y-axis of the exponential probability

plotting paper represents the reliability, whereas the y-axis for
most of the other life distributions represents the
unreliability.

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 Exponential Distribution
• For the two parameter exponential distribution, the
Cumulative density function is given by:

F (T )  1  e   (T  ) locatioparameter
Taking Natural Logarithm on both sides,
ln[1  F (T )]   (T   ).
Now, Let y  ln[1  F (T )]; a   & b  -
which results in the linear equation of :
y  a  bT
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 Exponential Probability Plot

Example
• Six units are put on a life test and tested to failure.
The failure times are 7, 12, 19, 29, 41 and 67 hours.
Estimate the failure rate parameter for a one-
parameter exponential distribution using the
probability plotting method.

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 Exponential Probability Plot
• In order to plot the points for the probability plot, the
appropriate reliability estimate values must be obtained. These
will be equivalent to 100% - MR, since the y-axis represents the
reliability and the MR values represent unreliability estimates.

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 Exponential Probability Plot
• Draw the best possible straight line through these
points. The time value at which this line intersects
with a horizontal line drawn at the 36.8% reliability
mark is the mean life and the reciprocal of this is the
failure rate  .

• This is because at t = m = 1/λ

25
Exponential Probability Plot

Since 1/λ = 33 hours, λ = 0.0303 failures/hour.

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 Weibull Probability Plot
• Example

• Assume that six identical units are being reliability tested at the same application
and operation stress levels. All of these units fail during the test after operating the
following number of hours, : 93, 34, 16, 120, 53 and 75. Estimate the values of the
parameters for a two-parameter Weibull distribution and determine the reliability
of the units at a time of 15 hours.

• Solution:

• The steps for determining the parameters of the Weibull pdf representing the
data, using probability plotting, are outlined in the following instructions:

• First, rank the times-to-failure in ascending order.

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Weibull Probability Plot

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 Weibull Probability Plot
• Obtain their median rank plotting positions. Median rank positions are
used instead of other ranking methods because median ranks are at a
specific confidence level (50%). Median ranks can be found tabulated in
many reliability books. They can also be estimated using the following
equation,

• where i is the failure order number and N is the total sample size.

• The exact median ranks are found in Weibull++ by solving,

29
 Weibull Probability Plot
• Draw the best possible straight
line through these points, as
shown below, then obtain the
slope of this line by drawing a
line, parallel to the one just
obtained, through the slope
indicator. This value is the
estimate of the shape parameter
β in this case = 1.4.

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 Weibull Probability Plot
• At the Q(t) = 63.2% ordinate point, draw a straight horizontal line until this line
intersects the fitted straight line. Draw a vertical line through this intersection
until it crosses the abscissa. The value at the intersection of the abscissa is the
estimate of . For this case = 76 hours. (This is always at 63.2% since Q(T) = 1 -
= 1- = 0.632 = 63.2%.)

• Now any reliability value for any mission time t can be obtained. For example
the reliability for a mission of 15 hours, or any other time, can now be
obtained either from the plot or analytically.

• To obtain the value from the plot, draw a vertical line from the abscissa, at t =
15 hours, to the fitted line. Draw a horizontal line from this intersection to the
ordinate and read Q(t), in this case Q(t) = 9.8%. Thus, R(t) = 1 - Q(t) = 90.2%.

• This can also be obtained analytically, from the Weibull reliability function,
since the estimates of both of the parameters are known or,
31
 Weibull Probability Plot

• Probability Plotting for the location parameter,

• The third parameter of the Weibull distribution is

utilized when the data do not fall on straight line, but
fall on either a concave up or down curve. The following
statements can be made regarding the value of γ

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 Weibull Probability Plot
MRust-concredown Jose in

• Case 1: If the curve for MR versus is concave down and the curve
for MR versus (Tj - T1 ) is concave up, then there exists a γ such
that 0 < γ < T1 , or γ has a positive value.

• Case 2: If the curves for MR versus Tj and MR versus ( Tj –T1 ) are

both concave up, then there exists a negative γ , which will
straighten out the curve of MR versus Tj .

• Case 3: If neither one of the previous two cases prevail, then

either reject the Weibull pdf as one capable of representing the
data, or proceed with the multiple population (mixed Weibull)
analysis.

33
 Weibull Probability Plot
To obtain the location parameter γ:

• Subtract the same arbitrary value, γ from all the times to failure, and
re plot the data.
• If the initial curve is concave up subtract a negative γ from each
failure time. d

>

• If the initial curve is concave down subtract a positive γ from each

failure time. ↑

• Repeat until the data plots on an acceptable straight line.

• The value of γ is the subtracted (positive or negative) value that
places the points in an acceptable straight line.

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 Weibull Probability Plot

• The other two parameters are then obtained using the

techniques previously described. Also, it is important to note
that we used the term subtract a positive or negative
gamma, where subtracting a negative gamma is equivalent to
adding it. Note that when adjusting for gamma, the x-axis
scale for the straight line becomes
(T - γ ).

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 Weibull Probability Plot
• Six identical units are
reliability tested under
the same stresses and
conditions. All units are
tested to failure, and the
following times-to-failure
are recorded: 48, 66, 85,
107, 125 and 152 hours.
Find the parameters of
the three - parameter
Weibull distribution
using probability
plotting.
36
 Weibull Probability Plot

• Note that since the original data set was concave down,
17.26 was subtracted from all the times-to-failure and re-
plotted, resulting in a straight line, thus = 17.26. (To
perform this by hand, one would attempt different values of
γ , using a trial and error methodology, until an acceptable
straight line is found. When performed manually, you do not
expect decimal accuracy)

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