Dynamic

Asset
Allocation
Blending strategic and tactical asset allocation

Invesco Solutions

This marketing material is for Professional Clients in Continental Europe (as defined in the important information section), for
Qualified Clients/Sophisticated Investors in Israel; for Professional Clients in Dubai, Ireland, the Isle of Man, Jersey, Guernsey
and the UK; for Sophisticated or Professional Investors in Australia; Institutional Investors in the United States; in Canada, this
document is restricted to investors who are (i) Accredited Investors as such term is defined in National Instrument 45-106, and
(ii) Permitted Clients as such term is defined in National Instrument 31-103; for Qualified Institutional Investors in Japan; for
Professional Investors in Hong Kong, for Institutional Investors and/or Accredited Investors in Singapore, for certain specific
sovereign wealth funds and/or Qualified Domestic Institutional Investors approved by local regulators only in the People's
Republic of China, for certain specific Qualified Institutions and/or Sophisticated Investors only in Taiwan, for Qualified
Professional Investors in Korea, for certain specific institutional investors in Brunei, for Qualified Institutional Investors and/
or certain specific institutional investors in Thailand, for certain specific institutional investors in Indonesia and for qualified
buyers in the Philippines for informational purposes only. It is not intended for and should not be distributed to, or relied upon,
by the public or retail investors.
 2

Summary
• Invesco Solutions' dynamic asset allocation investment process aims to deliver
alpha by utilizing a time-tested process that is both scalable and customizable
based on investor needs.
• Asset classes move in and out of favor over the course of a business cycle and,
our tactical asset allocation framework aims to exploit the opportunities these
fluctuations present.
• Combining strategic and tactical asset allocation views in a single asset
allocation may help investors reach their goals by balancing near and long-term
portfolio objectives.

Defining Invesco Solutions dynamic asset allocation investment process

Invesco Solutions builds portfolios using a disciplined, repeatable, and scalable
investment process, seeking to help investors in pursuit of their goals. Without a
defined investment process, ever-shifting market conditions and a vast universe
of investment options can cloud decision making, potentially deviating results
from desired outcomes. Solutions' investment process takes the guesswork out of
portfolio management. With a sound and tested approach covering asset allocation,
manager selection, portfolio construction, and risk and performance monitoring,
our team focuses on the key elements that drive investment alpha (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Invesco Solutions' investment process

Disciplined, repeatable, and scalable
Risk and
Asset Manager Portfolio
performance
allocation selection construction
monitoring

• Strategic allocations predicated on longer-term views

• Tactical asset allocation based on extensive macro regime
analysis
Asset allocation
• Dynamic adjustments seeking to capture cyclical
opportunities in the current environment while
maintaining a risk-aware approach

• Evaluation using quantitative and qualitative metrics

Manager
• Flexible architecture that allows for the inclusion of non-
selection
proprietary products

• Portfolios designed to incorporate investor constraints

Portfolio
and fee considerations
construction
• Portfolios optimized to solve for desired outcomes

• Comprehensive and continuous review of portfolios

Risk and
through Invesco Vision
performance
• Independent risk oversight (Global Performance
monitoring
Measurement and Risk/GPMR)

For illustrative purposes only. There can be no assurance that any investment process or strategy will achieve
its investment objective.
 3

As the starting point for any portfolio, our investment process begins with an asset
allocation that is aligned with the risk tolerance and goals of an investor based on
their investing time horizon. Importantly, we believe opportunities to create alpha
exist over the long and short term and that portfolios can be constructed to capture
By starting with the these strategic and tactical opportunities. It is critical to note that the drivers of risk
long-term strategic and return vary over different time horizons, and what may appear attractive over the
positioning and tactically long term may be out of favor in the near term and vice versa. We think investors can
tilting towards near-term potentially achieve stronger risk-adjusted returns by starting with a strategic asset
allocation and tactically adjusting to take advantage of near-term opportunities.
opportunities, investors
can successfully balance
these two views. Strategic asset allocation: Investing through the business cycle
One of the key tenets of our investment process is that the past is not prologue.
Therefore, we develop portfolios designed to strategically navigate a variety of
market environments through the business cycle. For example, if one were to invest
solely based on past performance within equities, one would overweight the most
overvalued recent winners while underweighting the overlooked parts of the market,
which are often trading at large discounts. As we have learned from prior periods
For the basis of our of market stress, this style of investing often leads to bubbles that deflate when the
strategic allocations, cycle ends, sometimes taking a decade or longer to return to market leadership,
if ever. As such, for the basis of our strategic allocations, we attempt to estimate
we attempt to estimate
the forward-looking risk, return, and correlation of asset classes through a set of
the forward-looking risk, capital market assumptions (CMAs). These CMAs are comprised of a standard set
return, and correlation of building blocks that translate to the more than 170 public and private assets we
of asset classes through cover (Figure 2). For example, expected returns on equities might consider dividend
a set of capital market yield, earnings growth, and expectations for changes in valuation relative to some
assumptions (CMAs). mean level, while fixed income estimates observe current and future yields, credit
spreads and estimated losses, and the shapes of its various yield curves.

Figure 2: Capital market assumption framework

170+ assets in nearly

20 global currencies across public Our building block approach to estimating returns
and private markets1 Income    Capital gain    Loss
Our capital market assumptions
Expected Equity Fixed Direct
cover a 5-year and 10-year horizon income real estate
returns
for:
Equities: 45+ assets
Historical data back to early 1970s Yield Yield Income
Fixed income: 85+ assets
Historical data back to early 2000s + Valuation change + Valuation change + Valuation change

Alternatives: 25+ assets

Return & risk coverage for both listed
+ Earnings growth + Roll return + Growth

and unlisted assets, including private

credit, private equity, and real assets
– Credit loss

Target risk
Conservative, moderate, aggressive

1 Due to private market assets requiring longer investment horizons, only 10-year assumptions are developed.
Source: Invesco Solutions, as of Sept. 30, 2023. For illustrative purposes only. Refer to capital market assumptions (CMAs) disclosures for additional CMA information.

Additional resources for our CMA and TAA methodologies

We employ a fundamentally based “building block” approach to estimating asset class returns. Estimates for income and capital gain components of returns for each
asset class are informed by fundamental and historical data. Components are then combined to establish estimated returns (Figure 2). Here, we provide a summary
of key elements of the methodology used to produce our long-term (10-year) estimates. Five-year assumptions are also available upon request. Please see Invesco’s
capital market assumption methodology whitepaper for more detail.

For more information on the Invesco Solutions approach to dynamically allocating across factors, sectors, regions and asset classes, please review our white
papers: "Dynamic Asset Allocation Through the Business Cycle" by Alessio de Longis, CFA®, "Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle", by Alessio de Longis, CFA®,
"Invesco's Dynamic Multifactor Strategies - A Macro Regime Approach" Parts 1 and 2, by Alessio de Longis, CFA®.
 4

Weights for our long-term strategic asset allocation (SAA) are then derived through
an optimization process that starts with an appropriate benchmark based on
risk tolerance and investment objectives and takes on active risk according to
our views within a given tracking error budget. The optimization methods are
As equities increase in the intended to maximize desired outcomes, such as return or yield while minimizing
strategic asset allocation, risk and balancing for uncertainty within a set of constraints. To note, this
the fixed income portion process enhances diversification by trading off assets that have similar features.
will begin to favor For example, as equities increase in the portfolio, the fixed income portion will
negatively correlated begin to favor negatively correlated assets with longer duration instead of credit
assets with longer instruments. Our strategic allocations are fully customizable and are curated to
duration instead of credit shift long-term investors towards the opportunities to capture alpha that exist in
instruments. their investment universe.

Our tactical approach to Tactical asset allocation: Tilting within the business cycle
investing utilizes a regime- While most investors have a long-term investment horizon, they often care about
based framework built performance and risks over the near-to-medium term, as these results may alter
from extensive research financial plans, affect behavioral investment biases, and influence future investment
on how macroeconomic decisions. This has become more prominent in recent decades due to more
and market events affect pronounced market fluctuations, larger economic shocks, and meaningful economic
asset class performance. policy responses, and tactical asset allocation (TAA) solutions aim to capitalize on
the opportunities these present. Within Invesco Solutions, our tactical approach
to investing utilizes a regime-based framework built from extensive research on
how macroeconomic and market events affect asset class performance. To identify
a regime for a given economy or region, we utilize proprietary leading economic
indicators (LEI) to establish a trend growth rate and a faster-moving, market-based,
global risk appetite composite indicator (GRACI) to determine whether the economy
will accelerate or decelerate (Figures 3). Within this framework, the business cycle is
comprised of four distinct regimes, namely:
1. Recovery: Growth below trend and accelerating (~15% of observations)
2. Expansion: Growth above trend and accelerating (~35% of observations)
3. Slowdown: Growth above trend and decelerating (~35% of observations)
4. Contraction: Growth below trend and decelerating (~15% of observations)

Figure 3: Estimating expected macro regimes

Constructing a forward-looking macro regime framework

Leading Economic Indicators (LEIs) Global Risk Appetite Cycle Indicator Expected macro regime
(GRACI)

Trend Above
Rising

Below
Recovery Expansion

Falling Rising LEI below trend LEI above trend

Above/Below long-term trend GRACI rising GRACI rising
GRACI

Measure of the market’s risk sentiment,

Forward-looking measure strongly correlated with changes in
of the level of economic activity. economic growth expectations. Contraction Slowdown

23 Countries, ~ 90% of World GDP Asset universe LEI below trend LEI above trend
Country-level LEIs as composites of:
Falling

• Country-level total return indices across GRACI falling GRACI falling

• Manufacturing activity/business surveys equity, credit and fixed income markets
• Consumer sentiment surveys • Developed and emerging markets
• Monetary/Financial conditions
• Housing/Construction activity Below trend LEIs Above trend
• Labor market activity

Sources: Invesco Solutions as of Sept. 30, 2023. de Longis, Alessio, “Dynamic Asset Allocation Through the Business Cycle: A Macro Regime Approach," Invesco
Solutions Manuscript (2019). de Longis, Alessio and Dianne Ellis, “Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle: Identifying Macro Regimes Through Investor Risk
Appetite," Invesco Solutions Manuscript (2019). Polk, de Longis. “Time-Series Variation in Factor Premia: The Influence of the Business Cycle.” Journal of Investment
Management 18, no. 1 (2020): 69–89. For illustrative purposes only.
 5

A given regime tends to last around six months, with the next most likely transition
being the current regime. Within this framework, regimes can move both forward
and backward based on how the business cycle unfolds. When the identified regime
shifts, the tactical portion of the portfolio reacts by tilting towards the assets with
Our macro process drives characteristics that tend to perform best in that regime.
TAA decisions, seeking Asset classes move in and out of favor over the course of a business cycle and our
return opportunities TAA framework aims to identify how certain asset classes perform in these different
between asset classes (i.e., stages. These are the levers we pull when deciding where to tilt our portfolios.
equity, credit, government Our macro process drives TAA decisions, seeking return opportunities between
bonds, and alternatives), asset classes (i.e., equity, credit, government bonds, and alternatives), regions, and
factors. For example, when growth improves, equities have outperformed fixed
regions, and factors.
income, and within fixed income, credit has outperformed government bonds
with similar duration. As growth slows, longer-duration government bonds tend to
outperform all other asset classes (Figure 4). Within equities, our signals identify
both regions and factors that are expected to outperform. Within fixed income, we
allocate between government bonds, quality credit, and riskier credit assets while
targeting an overall profile of duration and credit risk, depending on the prevailing
macro regime. Our research has shown that long-only investors can potentially
harvest these tactical sources of returns by following a disciplined investment
process.

Figure 4: Tactical asset allocation: Macro framework

Recovery Expansion Slowdown Contraction

Economic
Growth below trend & Growth above trend & Growth above trend & Growth below trend &
regime
accelerating accelerating decelerating decelerating

Still easy Tightening Tight Easing

Monetary
~ 15% of the
policy business
~ 35% of the ~ 35% of the ~ 15% of the
direction business business business
cycle cycle cycle cycle

Risky credit Equity Equity Government bonds

• High yield, bank • Value, size, • Quality, low volatility • Long duration
loans momentum
• Defensives, developed • Nominal bonds
• EM hard currency • Emerging markets markets
Equity Risky credit Government bonds High quality credit
Market • Size, value, cyclicals • High yield, bank loans • Long duration • IG corporate
leadership • Emerging markets • EM hard currency • Nominal bonds • IG securitized
(ranked by High quality credit High quality credit High quality credit Risky credit
expected • IG corporate • IG corporate • IG corporate • High yield, bank loans
outperformance)
• IG securitized • IG securitized • IG securitized • EM hard currency

Government bonds Government bonds Risky credit Equity

• Intermediate • Short duration • High yield, bank loans • Quality, low volatility,
duration momentum
• Inflation-linked bonds • EM hard currency
• Nominal bonds • Defensives, developed
markets

For illustrative purposes only. We define policy easing as the US Federal Reserve lowering interest rates and/or expanding its balance sheet. Still, easing suggests
that the US Federal Reserve is maintaining the lower interest rate policy and/or continuing its bond-buying program. Tightening suggests that the US Federal
Reserve is tapering asset purchases and/or beginning to raise interest rates. Tight policy suggests that the US Federal Reserve is raising rates in an effort to ease
inflation concerns.
 6

Equity regional rotation: US, developed (DM) ex-US, emerging markets (EM)
While our global macro regime framework informs the relative allocation between
equities and fixed income, additional macro drivers are modeled to inform the
We argue that equity allocation between regions within equities, namely US, developed ex-US, and
emerging market equities (Figure 5). Our tactical process to regional equity rotation
factors are cyclical,
is informed by relative growth momentum between regions, the global risk appetite
as their fundamental
cycle, as well as valuations in the US dollar cycle, which play an important role in
characteristics are influencing capital flows, exports, and earnings performance between regions.
influenced by the Combinations of these macro conditions lead to portfolio positioning, as illustrated
business cycle and carry in (Figure 6).
structurally different
1. US vs DM ex-US: Overweight (underweight) DM ex-US when relative growth
economic exposures, momentum favors regions outside the US, and the USD is over (under) valued
qualifying some, like the
value and size (small) 2. EM vs DM: Overweight (underweight) EM when risk appetite is rising (falling) and
the USD is over (under) valued
factors, as pro-cyclical
and others as defensive,
such as quality and Figure 5: Regional equity tactical allocation
low volatility, while Combining relative growth conditions and the US dollar cycle
momentum, a more Regional equity allocation framework
transient factor, tends to
Identify relative cyclical conditions between regions.
outperform during late Growth
Overweight (underweight) regions with more (less) favorable
cyclical stages. conditions growth conditions.

Identify long-term valuations in the US dollar. Overweight

US dollar
+ US equities (non-US equities) when US dollar is undervalued
valuations (overvalued).

Composite
= Composite score providing overweight/underweight signal.
regional signal
Source: Invesco Solutions analysis.

Equity factor rotation: Factors have been shown to be cyclical

An influential driver of returns within our TAA framework is equity factor rotation.
We argue that equity factors are cyclical, as their fundamental characteristics
are influenced by the business cycle and carry structurally different economic
exposures, qualifying some, like the value and size (small) factors, as pro-cyclical
and others as defensive, such as quality and low volatility, while momentum, a more
transient factor, tends to outperform during late cyclical stages. We believe these
differences provide a strong economic rationale, which can be exploited through
a rules-based investment process, to develop factor rotation strategies that aim
to tilt the portfolio towards factors expected to outperform in each macro regime
while reducing exposure to factors that are expected to lag the market. However,
we believe it is important to maintain an appropriate level of diversification and
construct portfolios with exposures to multiple factors, avoiding high concentration
of a single factor for long periods of time.

Embedding tactical relative to strategic: TAA and SAA in action

Tactical allocations may deviate from the strategic allocation based on a given
regime and tactical signals, shifting towards or away from equity or fixed income
(~10% of the portfolio relative to the SAA), equity regions (~5%), risky or quality
credit (~15%), and long or short duration (~ one year). For example, within a risk-off,
contractionary regime and neutral regional equity signal, a combined TAA and SAA
allocation would be neutral US versus developed markets (DM) ex-US, overweight
government bonds versus credit, overweight quality credit, and long duration
(Figure 7). Most of these overweights would reverse to underweights in a risk-on
recovery regime, should the economy be anticipated to rebound.
 7

Figure 6: TAA process: US vs DM ex-US and EM vs DM equities

Studying dollar valuations, risk appetite, and relative growth conditions

US vs DM ex-US equities positioning EM vs DM equities positioning

DM ex-US growth DM ex-US growth Falling risk appetite & Rising risk appetite &
Overvalued

Overvalued
underperforming & outperforming & overvalued USD overvalued USD
overvalued USD overvalued USD

Moderately
Neutral Overweight underweight Overweight
DM ex-US vs US equities EM equities EM equities
US dollar

US dollar
DM ex-US growth DM ex-US growth Falling risk appetite & Rising risk appetite &
underperforming & outperforming & undervalued USD undervalued USD
undervalued USD undervalued USD
Undervalued

Undervalued
Underweight Neutral Underweight Moderately overweight
DM ex-US vs US equities EM equities EM equities

US Relative DM ex-US Falling Global Risk Appetite Rising

outperforming Growth outperforming

Source: Invesco Solutions. Invesco Solutions leading economic indicators represent broad measures of economic activity. US dollar valuation based on relative
purchasing power parity framework on a basket of major foreign currencies. Global risk appetite measured via proprietary global risk appetite cycle indicator (GRACI).

A history of how regimes have shifted since 2017 shows how a dynamic portfolio
could react when faced with unexpected changes in the macroeconomic
environment (Figure 8). For example, in February of 2020, when the world began
experimenting with a series of rolling economic shutdowns due to the COVID-19
While our SAA is designed pandemic that lasted the better part of two years, the regime signal quickly picked
to move slowly and up a contraction from a prior period of recovery in 2019. While our SAA is designed
may still have had an to move slowly and may still have had an overweight to credit as compared to
overweight to credit as government bonds due to historically low yields, in this contractionary COVID
compared to government example, the TAA can overweight duration within the fixed income portion of the
portfolio to become more defensive. In June of 2020, despite many shutdowns still
bonds due to historically
being in place, the regime signal correctly identified a recovery building after the
low yields, in this
sharp contraction. At the end of 2022, when most professional forecasters were
contractionary COVID-19 forecasting a recession, the regime signal again correctly identified the recovery
example, the TAA can that was to occur in 2023. Our macro regime framework has historically anticipated
overweight duration within turning points in the growth cycle by 3 to 6 months. While tactical in nature, the
the fixed income portion framework is not expected to correctly predict the prevailing economic environment
of the portfolio to become every month, or specifically around the identification of a new regime. The benefits
more defensive. of this systematic approach tend to accrue on a multi-month or multi-quarter
basis. However, the ability to update our indicators on a monthly basis allows the
framework to quickly adapt and react to new information coming from financial
markets or the economy.
Figure 9 is a representative example of how these two allocations can be
combined to create one portfolio that varies by regime. The overall equity of the
dynamic portfolio ranges from 60% in a recovery to 51% in a contraction, while
the fixed income portion is lowest during an expansion (30%) and highest during
a contraction (43%). With all of the levers of the portfolio, equity region, credit
quality, and duration, moving in each regime, it is clear that these portfolios are
dynamic in nature and respond to the signals behind the allocations depending on
the macroeconomic and market environment.

Conclusion: Asset allocations can be both tactical and strategic

For investors seeking to efficiently invest over multiple time horizons, the Solutions
framework for tactical and strategic asset allocation comes together within the
dynamic asset allocation. By efficiently blending SAA and TAA in our time-tested
investment process, long-only investors can gain exposure to both near- and short-
term sources of alpha seeking to improve risk-adjusted returns.
 8

Figure 7: Tactical portfolio tilts

We position the dynamic asset allocations tactically based on our regime-based approach seeking to take advantage of the following active
positioning against our SAA:
Equity vs fixed income US vs DM ex-US equity regions EM vs DM equity regions

+10% +10% +5% +5% +5% +5%

Equity Fixed income US equity DM ex-US equity EM DM

Credit quality Duration

+15% +15% -1 year +1 year

Risky credit Quality credit Short duration Long duration

Source: Invesco, as of Sept. 30, 2023. For illustrative purposes only.

Figure 8: Regime signal history

Recovery    Expansion    Slowdown    Contraction

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Source: Invesco, as of Oct. 31, 2023.

Figure 9: Strategic + Tactical asset allocation

Combining macro, market and risk analysis: Representative example

US equity    DM ex-US equity    EM equity    Risky credit    Quality credit    Government bonds    Alternatives
Recovery Expansion
Active weights vs SAA1 (%) Active weights vs SAA1 (%)
6.0% 6.0%
US equity -4.5 13.2% US equity 5.3
0.1% 13.2% DM ex-US equity 5.1 3.4% DM ex-US equity 0.9
38.8% EM equity 3.4 EM equity 2.3
48.5%
Risky credit 12.0 16.7% Risky credit 8.0
20.7%
Quality credit -10.6 Quality credit -7.3
Government bonds -5.4 Government bonds -9.2
8.6% 12.6% 7.6%
8.4%

Contraction Slowdown
6.0% Active weights vs SAA1 (%) 6.0% Active weights vs SAA1 (%)
US equity 3.7 20.3% US equity 8.6
46.9% DM ex-US equity -5.2 DM ex-US equity -4.4
30.9%
EM equity -3.5 51.8% EM equity -1.2
6.0%
2.2% Risky credit 1.2 Risky credit 0.0
Quality credit -8.5 8.7% 3.1% Quality credit -4.7
2.3%
9.9%
Government bonds 12.3 4.0% Government bonds 1.7
1.8%
1 Representative SAA: US equity (43%), DM ex-US equity (8%), EM equity (5%), risky credit (9%), quality credit (11%), government bonds and cash (19%), and
alternatives (6%). Risky credit is composed of high yield and broadly syndicated loans, while quality credit represents investment grade corporates. Alternatives
are composed of event-driven and listed infrastructure.
Source: Invesco Solutions. Asset class exposures are shown for illustrative purposes only and do not represent a guarantee of similar exposures in the future.
 9

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result of exchange rate fluctuations), and investors may not get back the full
• In Canada, this document is restricted to investors who are (i) Accredited
amount invested.
Investors as such term is defined in National Instrument 45-106, and (ii)
Permitted Clients as such term is defined in National Instrument 31-103.
Important information
This marketing material is for Professional Clients in Continental Europe (as This document is issued in:
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