Chapter 1.

1
1. Let, A = {Patients visit physical therapist}
B = {Patients visit chiropractor}
Consider, P (A) = x
So, P (B) = x – 16% = x – 0.16
Here, P (A ∩ B) = 28% = 0.28 and 𝑃(A′ ∩ B ′ ) = 𝑃(A ∪ B)′ = 8% = 0.08
So, P (A ∪ B) = 1 – P(A ∪ B)′ = 1 – 0.8 = 0.92
We know, P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A ∩ B )
⟹ 0.92 = x + x – 0.16 – 0.28
⟹ 2x = 1.36
⟹ x = 0.68
So, P (A) = 0.68 = 68%

2. Let, A = {Customers insure more than one car}

B = {Customers insure a sports car}
Given, P(A) = 85% = 0.85, P(B) = 23% = 0.23, and P (A ∩ B) = 17% = 0.17
Now, P (A′ ∩ B ′ ) = P(A ∪ B)′ = 1 – P (A ∪ B)
= 1 – [ P (A) + P (B) – P (A ∩ B ) ]
= 1 – (0.85 + 0.23 – 0.17) = 0.09 = 9%

3. Here, n (S) = 52
a) n (A) = 12 and n (B) = 6
12 6
So, P (A) = 52 and P (B) = 52

b) n (A ∩ B) = 2
n (A ∩ B) 2
So, P (A ∩ B) = n (S)
= 52

12 6 2 16
c) P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A ∩ B) = 52 + 52 – 52
= 52

d) n (C) = 13 and n (D) = 39

13 39
So, P (C) = 52 and P (D) = 52

n (C ∩ D) = 0
 n (C ∩ D)
So, P (C ∩ D) = n (S)
=0

13 39
e) P (C ∪ D) = P (C) + P (D) – P (C ∩ D) = 52 + 52 – 0 = 1

HHHH, HHHT, HHTH, HHTT,

HTHH, HTHT, HTTH, HTTT,
4. a) The sample space, S = { }
THHH, THHT, THTH, THTT,
TTHH, TTHT, TTTH, TTTT
Here, n(S) = 16.
b) Let, A = {At least 3 heads} = {HHHH, HHHT, HHTH, HTHH, THHH}
B = {At most 2 heads} = {HHTT, TTHH, HTHT, HTTH, HTTT,
THHT, THTH, THTT, TTHT, TTTH, TTTT}
C = {Heads on the third toss} = {HHHH, HTHH, THHH, TTHH, HHHT, HTHT, THHT, TTHT}
D = {1 head and 3 tails} = {HTTT, THTT, TTHT, TTTH}
Now, n(A) = 5, n(B) = 11, n(C) = 8, n(D) = 4
5
(i) P (A) =
16

(ii) n (A ∩ B) = 0;
So, P (A ∩ B) = 0
11
(iii) P (B) = 16

(iv) n (A ∩ C) = 4;
4
So, P (A ∩ C) = 16
n(C) 8
(v) P (C) = n(S) = 16

n(D) 4
P (D) = n(S) = 16

5 8 4 9
(vi) P (A ∪ C) = P (A) + P (C) – P (A ∩ C) = + – =
16 16 16 16

(vii) n (B ∩ D) = 4;
4
So, P (B ∩ D) =
16

1
5. Given, P (A) = 6.
1 5
So, P (B) = 1 – 6 = 6 [ ⸪ B = A′ ]
Now, P (A ∩ B) = 0
1 5
So, P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A ∩ B) = 6 + 6 – 0 = 1

6. Given, P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.5 and P (A ∩ B) = 0.3

a) P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A ∩ B) = 0.5 + 0.4 – 0.3 = 0.6
b) P(A ∩ B ′ ) = P (A) – P (A ∩ B) = 0.4 – 0.3 = 0.1
c) P (A′ ∪ B ′ ) = P(A ∩ B)′ = 1 – P (A ∩ B) = 1 – 0.3 = 0.7

7. Here, P (A ∪ B) = 0.76 and P (A ∪ B ′ ) = 0.87

We know, P (A ∪ B ′ ) = P (A) + P(A ∪ B)′
So, P (A) = P (A ∪ B ′ ) – P(A ∪ B)′
= P (A ∪ B ′ ) – [1 – P (A ∪ B)]
= 0.87 – (1 – 0.76) = 0.63

8. Let, A = {Having lab work}

B = {Having a referral}
Given, P(A) = 0.41 and P(B) = 0.53
Here, 𝑃(A′ ∩ B ′ ) = 𝑃(A ∪ B)′ = 0.21
Now, P(A ∪ B)′ = 0.21
⟹ 1 – P (A ∪ B) = 0.21
⟹ P (A ∪ B) = 0.79
So, P (A ∩ B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A ∪ B) = 0.41 + 0.53 – 0.79 = 0.15

Chapter 1.3
5,000
1. a) P(B1) = 1,000,000

78,515
b) P(A1) = 1,000,000

n (A1 ∩ B2) 73,630

c) P (A1 | B2) = n (B2)
= 995,000

n (A1 ∩ B1) 4,885

d) P (B1 | A1) = =
n(A1) 78,515

1041
2. a) P(A1) = 1456
 n (A1 ∩ S1) 392
b) P (A1 | S1) = n (S1)
= 633

n (A1 ∩ S2) 649

c) P (A1 | S2) = n (S2)
= 823

n (A1 ∩ B1) 5
3. a) P (A1 ∩ B1) = n (S)
= 35

n(A1) n(B1) 5 12 19 5 26
b) P (A1 ∪ B1) = P (A1) + P (B1) – P (A1 ∩ B1) = n(S)
+ n(S)
– 35 = 35 + 35 – 35 = 35

n (A1 ∩ B1) 5
c) P (A1 | B1) = n(B1)
= 19

n (A2 ∩ B2) 9
d) P (B2 | A2) = n(A2)
= 23

13 12 1
4. a) P (two hearts) = 52 × 51 = 17
13 13 13
b) P (A heart on the first and club on second) = × =
52 51 204
12 4 1 3 1
c) P (Non-Ace heart, Ace) + P (Ace of heart, non-heart Ace) = 52 × 51 + 52 × 51 = 52

5. Mother Father
W R W R

(W, W) (R, R) (R, W) (W, R)

a) Sample space, S= {(W, W), (W, R), (R, W), (R, R)}
1
b) P (WW | White) =
3

6.

Heart disease Non-heart disease Total

Parental 111 223 334

Non-parental 110 538 648
Total 221 761 982

n (Heart disease ∩ Non−parental) 110

P (Heart disease | Non-parental) = n (Non−parental)
= 648
7. P (At least one orange) = P (O1 ∩ O2) + P (O1 ∩ B2) + P (B1 ∩ O2)
2 1 2 2 2 2 5
=4×3+4×3+4×3=6

P (Both orange ∩ At least one orange) 1⁄ 1

P (Both orange | At least one orange) = =56=
P (At least one orange) ⁄6 5

3 2 1 1
8. a) P (WWW) = × × =
20 19 18 1140

b) P (WLWW) + P (LWWW) + P (WWLW)

3 17 2 1 17 3 2 1 3 2 17 1 1
= × × × + × × × + × × × =
20 19 18 17 20 19 18 17 20 19 18 17 380

n(A1) 30
14. a) P (A1) = =
n(S) 100

n(A1) 29
b) P (A3) = n(S)
= 100

n(B2) 41
P (B2) = n(S)
= 100

n (A3 ∩ B2) 9
P (A3 ∩ B2) = n (S)
= 100

41 28 9 60
c) P (A2 ∪ B3) = P (A2) + P (B3) – P (A2 ∩ B3) = 100 + 100 – 100 = 100
n (A1 ∩ B2)
P (A1 ∩ B2) ⁄n (S) 11⁄ 11
d) Probability of A1 if it is B2, P (A1 | B2) = = n (B2) = 41 100 =
P (B2) ⁄n (S) ⁄100 41

n (B1 ∩ A3) 13⁄

P (B1 ∩ A3) ⁄n (S) 13
e) Probability of B1 if it is A3, P (B1 | A3) = = n (A3) = 29 100 =
P (A3) ⁄n (S) ⁄100 29

15. Red ball = 8 Red ball = n

Blue ball = 7 Blue ball = 9

A B

P (Two balls of same color) = P (RR) + P (BB)

151 8 n 7 9
⟹ = × + ×
300 15 (n+9) 15 (9+n)

151 8n+63
⟹ 300 = 15(n+9)

⟹300 (8n+63) = 151 (15n+135)

⟹ 2400n + 18900 = 2265n +20385
⟹135n = 1485
∴ n = 11
So, there are 11 red balls. (answer)

16. Red ball = 4 Red ball = 4

White ball = 2 White ball = 3

A B

P (RB) = P (RA ∩ RB) + P (WA ∩ RB)

= P (RA) P (RB | RA) + P (WA) P (RB | WA)
3 5 2 4 23
= 5 × 8 + 5 × 8 = 40

Chapter 1.4
1. Given, P (A) = 0.7, P (B) = 0.2 and both A and B are independent.
a) P (A∩B) = P(A)×P(B) = (0.7) × (0.2) = 0.14
b) P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A ∩ B) =0.7 + 0.2 – 0.14 = 0.76
c) P (A′ ∪ B ′ ) = P (A ∩ B)′ =1 – P (A∩ B) = 1 – 0.14 = 0.86

2. Given, P(A) = 0.3 & P(B) = 0.6

a) P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A ∩ B)
= P(A)+ P(B) – P(A) × P(B) [as A and B are independent]
= 0.3 + 0.6 – 0.3 × 0.6 = 0.72
P(A ∩ B)
b) P (A | B) = = 0 [as A and B are mutually exclusive P(A ∩ B) = 0]
P(B)

1 1 3
3. Given, P (A) = 4; P (A)′ = 1 – P (A) = = 1 – 4 = 4
2 2 1
P (B) = 3; P (B)′ = 1 – P (B) = 1 – 3 = 3
1 2 1
a) P (A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B) = 4 × 3 = 6
1 1 1
b) P (A ∩ B ′ )= P (A)×P (B ′ ) = 4 × 3 = 12
3 1 1
c) P (A′ ∩ B′) = P (A′)×P (B′) = = 4 × 3 = 4
 1
d) P [(A ∪ B)′] = P (A′ ∩ B′) = 4
3 2 1
e) P (A′ ∩ B) = P (A′)×P (B) = 4 × 3 = 2

5. Given, P (A) = 0.8, P (B) = 0.5 & P (A ∪ B) = 0.9

P (A ∩ B) = P (A)×P (B) = 0.8×0.5 = 0.4
P (A ∩ B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A ∪ B) = 0.8 + 0.5 – 0.9 = 0.4
As they are same, so A and B are independent.

7. Given, P (A1) = 0.5, P (A2) = 0.7, P(A3) = 0.6

a) P (Exactly one player is successful)
= P (A1) P (A2)′ P(A3)′ + P (A1)′ P (A2) P(A3)′ + P (A1)′ P (A2)′ P(A3)
= 0.5 × (1 – 0.7) × (1 – 0.6) + (1 – 0.5) × 0.7× (1 – 0.6) + (1 – 0.5) × (1 – 0.7) × 0.6 = 0.29
b) P (Exactly two players make a goal)
= P (A1) P (A2) P(A3)′ + P (A1) P (A2)′ P(A3) + P (A1)′ P (A2) P(A3)
= 0.5 × 0.7 × (1 – 0.6) + 0.5 × (1 – 0.7) × 0.6 + (1 – 0.5) × 0.7 × 0.6 = 0.47

8. Let, A = {Orange comes up die on A}

B = {Orange comes up die on B}
C = {Orange comes up die on C}
1 5
P(A) = 6; P (A′) = 6
2 4
P(B) = 6; P (B′) = 6
3 3
P(C) = 6; P (C′) = 6

P (exactly two players make a goal)

= P(A) P(B) P(C′) + P (A) P (B)′ P (C) + P (A′) P (B) P(C)
1 2 3 1 4 3 5 2 3 2
=6×6×6+6×6×6+6×6×6=9

9. Given, P(A) =0.5; P (A′) = 0.5

P(B)= 0.8; P (B′) = 0.2
P(C)= 0.9; P (C′) = 0.1
a) P (All three events occur) = P(A) × P(B) × P(C) = 0.5×0.8×0.9 = 0.36
b) P (Exactly two events occur) = P (A) P (B) P(C)′ + P (A) P (B)′ P(C) + P (A)′ P (B) P(C)
= 0.5 × 0.8 × 0.1 + 0.5× 0.2 × 0.9 + 0.5 × 0.8 × 0.9 = 0.49
c) P (None of the events occur) = P (A)′ P (B)′ P(C)′ = 0.5 × 0.2 × 0.1 = 0.01

Chapter 1.5
1. Red ball = 0 Red ball = 2 Red ball = 2 Red ball = 1
White ball = 4 White ball = 0 White ball = 2 White ball = 3
B1 B2 B3 B4
1 1 1 1
Given, P (B1) = 2 , P (B2) = 4 , P (B3) = 8 , P (B4) = 8

a) P (W) = P (W ∩ B1) + P (W ∩ B2) + P (W ∩ B3) + P (W ∩ B4)

= P (B1) P (W | B1) + P (B2) P (W | B2) + P (B3) P (W | B3) + P (B4) P (W | B4)
1 1 1 2 1 3 21
= 2 ×1 + 4 × 0 + 8 × 4 + 8 × 4 = 32

P (W ∩ B1) 1⁄ 16
b) P (B1 | W) = = 21 2 =
P (W) ⁄32 21

2. Here, P(A) = 40% = 0.4; P (G | A) = 85% = 0.85

P(B) = 60% = 0.6; P (G | B) = 75% = 0.75
a) P(G) = P(A) P (G | A) + P(B) P (G | B) = 0.4×0.85 + 0.6×0.75 = 0.79 = 79%
P(A) P(𝐆|𝐀) 0.4×0.85
b) P (A | G) = = = 0.43 = 43%
P(G) 0.79

5. Let, A = {Patients are critical}

B = {Patients are serious}
C = {Patients are stable}
P (A) = 20% = 0.2; P (D | A) = 30% = 0.3
P (B) = 30% = 0.3; P (D | B) = 10% = 0.1
P (C) = 50% = 0.5; P (D | C) = 1% = 0.01
Now, P (D) = P (D ∩ A) + P (D ∩ B) + P (D ∩ C)
= P (A) P (D | A) + P (B) P (D | B) + P (C) P (D | C)
= 0.2 × 0.3 + 0.3×0.1 + 0.5×0.01 = 0.095
P (A ∩ D) P (A)P (D | A) 0.2×0.3
Then, P (A | D) = P (D)
= P (D)
= 0.095 = 63%.
7. Given, P(I+) = 20% = 0.2; P(I-) = 80% = 0.8
P (D+ | I+) = 0.9; P (D- | I+) = 0.1
P (D+ | I-) = 0.05; P (D- | I-) = 0.95
Now, P (D+) = P (D+ ∩ I+) + P (D+ ∩ I-)
= P (I+) P (D+ | I+) + P (I-) P (D+ | I-)
= 0.2 × 0.9 + 0.8×0.05 = 0.22
P (I+ ∩ D+ ) P (I+ )P (D+ |I+ ) 0.2×0.9
Then, P (I+ | D+) = P (D+ )
= P (D+ )
= 0.22 = 81%.

9. Here, P (disease) = 0.05% = 0.0005; P (non-disease) = 0.9995

P (detect | disease) = 99% = 0.99; P (not detect | disease) = 0.01
P (detect | non-disease) = 3% = 0.03; P (not detect | non-disease) = 0.97

P (disease ∩ detect)
Now, P (disease | detect) = P (detect)

P (disease) P (detect | disease)

= P (disease) P (detect | disease)+ P (non−disease) P (detect | non−disease)

0.0005×0.99
= = 0.016
0.0005×0.99+ 0.9995×0.03

Then, P (non-disease | detect) = 1 – P (disease | detect) = 1 – 0.016 = 0.984

10. Given, P(A+) = 0.02; P(A-) = 0.98

P (D- | A+) = 0.08; P (D+ | A+) = 0.92
P (D- | A-) = 0.95; P (D+ | A-) = 0.05
a) P (D+) = P (D+ ∩ A+) + P (D+ ∩ A-)
= P (A+) P (D+ | A+) + P (A-) P (D+ | A-)
= 0.02 × 0.92 + 0.98×0.05 = 0.0674
P (D+ ∩ A− ) P (A− )P (D+ |A− ) 0.98×0.05
b) P (A- | D+) = P (D+ )
= P (D+ )
= 0.0674
= 0.727

So, P (A+ | D+) = 1 – P (A- | D+) = 1 – 0.727 = 0.273