🎯 What is Regression?

🧠 Theory (In Simple Words)

Regression is a machine learning technique used to predict a continuous value/output based on input(s). It
finds a relationship between independent variable(s) (X) and a dependent variable (Y).

📈 Example:

 If you want to predict a person’s salary based on years of experience, you are doing regression.

 Other examples:

o Predicting house prices based on area, number of rooms, location.

o Predicting temperature based on past weather data.

🧮 Types of Regression

1. Simple Linear Regression – One independent variable.

2. Multiple Linear Regression – More than one independent variable.

3. Polynomial Regression – Curve-fitting regression.

4. Ridge/Lasso Regression – Regularized versions to prevent overfitting.

✍️Simple Analogy

Imagine drawing a straight line that best fits the dots (data points) on a chart. This line helps us predict the
value of Y for any new X.

✅ Hands-on Python Code: Simple Linear Regression

🔧 Setup

import pandas as pd

import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression

from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split

📘 Sample Dataset: Salary_Data.csv

YearsExperience Salary

1.1 39343.00
YearsExperience Salary

2.0 43525.00

3.2 54445.00

🧪 Load Data

# Load data

df = pd.read_csv('Salary_Data.csv')

# Split into inputs (X) and output (y)

X = df[['YearsExperience']]

y = df['Salary']

# Split into train and test

X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(X, y, test_size=0.2, random_state=42)

📊 Train the Linear Regression Model

model = LinearRegression()

model.fit(X_train, y_train)

# Predict on test data

y_pred = model.predict(X_test)

# Print coefficients

print("Slope (m):", model.coef_[0])

print("Intercept (b):", model.intercept_)

Plotting the Regression Line

plt.scatter(X, y, color='blue', label='Actual Data')

plt.plot(X, model.predict(X), color='red', label='Regression Line')

plt.xlabel("Years of Experience")

plt.ylabel("Salary")

plt.title("Simple Linear Regression")

plt.legend()

plt.show()

🤔 What is Happening Here?

The regression model is trying to learn the best line:

Salary=m⋅Experience+b\text{Salary} = m \cdot \text{Experience} + b

So when we give Experience = 5, the model can predict the salary using that line equation.

🧠 Mathematical Formula (for reference):

y=mx+by = mx + b

Where:

 y is the predicted value

 x is the input (e.g., years of experience)

 m is the slope (how much y changes with x)

 b is the intercept (y value when x = 0)

📝 Practice Exercise for Students

Ask students to:

1. Load the dataset.

2. Fit a linear regression model.

3. Predict salary for 6.5 years of experience.

4. Plot the actual vs predicted values.

5. Try with a new dataset (e.g. house prices).

🧠 Questions to Check Understanding

1. What is the goal of regression?

2. What’s the difference between classification and regression?

3. What do slope and intercept represent in linear regression?

4. What kind of problems can be solved using regression?

📦 Optional: Try Polynomial Regression (Curve fitting)

from sklearn.preprocessing import PolynomialFeatures

from sklearn.pipeline import make_pipeline

poly_model = make_pipeline(PolynomialFeatures(degree=2), LinearRegression())

poly_model.fit(X_train, y_train)
# Plot

plt.scatter(X, y, color='green')

plt.plot(X, poly_model.predict(X), color='orange', label='Polynomial Fit')

plt.title("Polynomial Regression")

plt.legend()

plt.show()

📚 Summary (For Revision)

Concept Meaning

Regression Predicting continuous output

Linear Regression Fits a straight line

Coefficients Determine the slope and position of the line

Polynomial Regression Fits curves to data

Use Cases Salary, price, temperature predictions

🎢 Imagine a Roller Coaster

 You know how a slide at the playground goes straight down? That’s like Linear Regression – a straight
line.

 Now imagine a roller coaster 🎢 — it goes up, then down, then up again. That’s like Polynomial
Regression – it draws a curvy line to fit the data.

🧁 Story Example: Cupcake Sales

🍰 Story:

Let’s say we open a cupcake shop and track sales each month.

 Month 1: We sold 10 cupcakes

 Month 2: 30 cupcakes

 Month 3: 70 cupcakes

 Month 4: 60 cupcakes

 Month 5: 30 cupcakes

 Month 6: 10 cupcakes

The sales first go up and then down — like a curve!

A straight line won’t fit, so we draw a curved line using Polynomial Regression!

📊 Visualization (Like a Kid’s Drawing)

import numpy as np

import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression

from sklearn.preprocessing import PolynomialFeatures

# 🧁 Data: Cupcake Sales per Month

months = np.array([1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]).reshape(-1, 1)

sales = np.array([10, 30, 70, 60, 30, 10])

# 🎨 Make it polynomial (curve)

poly = PolynomialFeatures(degree=2)

months_poly = poly.fit_transform(months)

model = LinearRegression()

model.fit(months_poly, sales)

# 📈 Predict and plot

x_line = np.linspace(1, 6, 100).reshape(-1, 1)

x_line_poly = poly.transform(x_line)

y_line = model.predict(x_line_poly)

plt.scatter(months, sales, color='blue', label='Cupcake Sales')

plt.plot(x_line, y_line, color='red', label='Polynomial Curve')

plt.title('Cupcake Sales Over Time 🎂')

plt.xlabel('Month')

plt.ylabel('Sales')

plt.legend()

plt.grid(True)

plt.show()
🍩 Story: Cupcake Shop Example

Imagine you're running a cupcake shop. Each month, you count how many cupcakes you sell. Some months sell
more, some less. We want to draw a curve to understand and predict sales in future months.

🧩 Let’s Understand Key Concepts

1️⃣ reshape(-1, 1) — Making it "Tall Table" Format

📦 Code:

python

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months = np.array([1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]).reshape(-1, 1)

🧠 Meaning:

 The data [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6] is just a row.

 But Machine Learning wants data in a table format (rows & columns).

 So we reshape it into 6 rows and 1 column.

🎒 Kid Analogy:

Like turning a list of toys into a list of toy boxes stacked vertically:

Before:

text

CopyEdit

[1, 2, 3, 4]

After reshape:

text

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[ [1],

[2],

[3],

[4] ]

2️⃣ intercept_ and coef_ — How Model Predicts

📦 After fitting:

python

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model.intercept_

model.coef_

🧠 Meaning:

 intercept_ is where the line/curve starts (Y when X = 0)

 coef_ are the weights (slopes) telling how much the line bends or rises.

🎒 Kid Analogy:

Imagine your cupcake price = ₹10 + ₹5 × number of toppings

Here:

 ₹10 = intercept (base)

 ₹5 = coefficient (rate per topping)

3️⃣ PolynomialFeatures(degree=2) — Making Curve Instead of Line

📦 Code:

python

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poly = PolynomialFeatures(degree=2)

🧠 Meaning:

 Linear lines are straight.

 But cupcake sales rise and fall — a curve.

 So we use polynomial to add powers of X (like X²) to curve it.

🎒 Kid Analogy:

If a straight line is a slide, then a curve is a rollercoaster!

4️⃣ .transform() — Magic to Add Curve Power

📦 Code:

python

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x_line_poly = poly.transform(x_line)

🧠 Meaning:

 It adds X², X³... depending on degree.

 For example, if X = 3, it becomes [1, 3, 9] → adds 3² = 9.

🎒 Kid Analogy:

Like turning plain milk into a milkshake by adding flavors and ice cream!
✅ Full Flow Summary

Step Code What It Does

1️⃣ reshape(-1, 1) Make your list look like a table

2️⃣ PolynomialFeatures(degree=2) Add X² to make curves

3️⃣ .transform() Add polynomial powers

4️⃣ .fit() Train the model to understand cupcake patterns

5️⃣ .predict() Ask the model to guess sales for new months

6️⃣ Plot Show results on graph with curved red line

📊 Real Graph Output

 Blue dots = actual cupcake sales per month

 Red curve = the prediction (smooth line showing trend)

💡 Summary for Kids:

Concept Kid-Friendly Example

Linear Regression Slide in playground (straight line)

Polynomial Regression Roller coaster (curvy line)

Why use it? When things go up AND down 🎢

✅ Practice Task for Kids:

Draw a chart of ice cream sales:

 Start cold (few sales), get hot (many sales), then cool again (few sales).
Then ask: Can a straight line fit? Or do we need a curve?

Regression comes in many types, depending on the kind of relationship you're modeling between the input (X)
and the output (Y). Here's a clear and student-friendly breakdown:

🧠 Concept: What Is "Prediction" in Regression?

Imagine:

 You have a pattern (like a line or a curve).

  You know the rule behind the pattern.

 You use it to guess or predict the next value.

That’s prediction — using past data to guess future or unknown data.

🍭 Kid-Friendly Example: Predicting Candy Sales

Let’s say we tracked candy sales for 6 days:

Day Candies Sold

1 10

2 30

3 70

4 60

5 30

6 10

This looks like a hill — sales go up and then down.

Now someone asks:

💬 “How many candies will we sell on Day 7?”

We use our curve (Polynomial Regression) to predict the number.

🧮 Simple Math Behind the Prediction

The model builds an equation like this:

ini

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y = a * x² + b * x + c

Where:

 x = the input (day)

 y = the predicted value (candies)

 a, b, c = numbers (called coefficients) that the model learned from data

When we plug in x = 7, we get:

ini

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y = a*(7²) + b*(7) + c = predicted number of candies on Day 7

🧠 This is called using the model to make a prediction.

🔢 In Code – How Prediction Works

python

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from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression

from sklearn.preprocessing import PolynomialFeatures

import numpy as np

# Step 1: Data

X = np.array([1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]).reshape(-1, 1) # Days

y = np.array([10, 30, 70, 60, 30, 10]) # Candies

# Step 2: Polynomial transformation

poly = PolynomialFeatures(degree=2)

X_poly = poly.fit_transform(X)

# Step 3: Train the model

model = LinearRegression()

model.fit(X_poly, y)

# Step 4: Predict for Day 7

day_7 = np.array([[7]])

day_7_poly = poly.transform(day_7)

prediction = model.predict(day_7_poly)

print(f"Predicted candies on Day 7: {int(prediction[0])}")

📊 What’s Happening:

Step What Happens Like...

1️⃣ Learn from data See how sales changed

2️⃣ Make an equation (a rule) Draw a curvy line 📈

3️⃣ Plug in new x = 7 Ask "what if Day is 7?"

Step What Happens Like...

4️⃣ Get predicted y "We will sell 5 candies!" 🍬

🧠 Summary for Students:

Prediction = Smart Guessing!

If we know how things changed in the past, we can guess what will happen next — using math and patterns.

🧠 Types of Regression – Explained Simply

🧪 Type 🤔 When to Use 📘 Example

1. Linear Regression Straight-line relationship 📚 Study Time → Marks

2. Multiple Linear Regression Many inputs affect output 🛌 Sleep + 📚 Study → Marks

3. Polynomial Regression Curved relationship (non-linear) 👶 Age vs Height

Too many inputs → Avoid

4. Ridge Regression Data cleanup with penalty
overfitting

5. Lasso Regression Feature selection + penalty Remove useless inputs

6. Logistic Regression Output is Yes/No (Binary) 🧪 Sick or Not (0/1)

7. ElasticNet Regression Combo of Ridge + Lasso Complex problems

8. Stepwise Regression Adds/removes inputs step-by-step Auto feature selection

9. Quantile Regression Predicts percentiles (not average) 90th percentile salary

10. Bayesian Regression Adds uncertainty to predictions Forecasting uncertain data

11. Poisson Regression Count-based predictions 📞 Number of calls per day

12. Ordinal Regression Ordered categories 📈 Rating: Poor, Fair, Good, Excellent

13. Support Vector Regression

Handles non-linear + margin 📉 Complex patterns
(SVR)

14. Decision Tree Regression Tree-like splits of data If-else rules for prediction

15. Random Forest Regression Many trees (ensemble) Robust & accurate predictions

🎨 Easy Classification:

🔢 Output Type Use This

Numbers (marks, price, weight) Linear, Polynomial, Ridge, SVR

Yes/No or 0/1 Logistic Regression

🔢 Output Type Use This

Categories (Good, Average, Poor) Ordinal Regression

Count of events Poisson Regression

Uncertain/Probabilistic output Bayesian Regression

📈 Visual Summary:

 Linear → Straight line

 Polynomial → Curved line

 Logistic → S-curve (0 to 1)

 Decision Tree → Blocks of prediction

 Random Forest → Many trees → averaged output