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PA G E T W O
 PROBABILITY
TEACHER GUIDE
STANDARDS
7.SP.5 Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses
the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood. A probability near 0
indicates an unlikely event, a probability around 1/2 indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely,
and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event.

7.SP.6 Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that
produces it and observing its long-run relative frequency, and predict the approximate relative
frequency given the probability.

7.SP.7 Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities
from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the
discrepancy.

a. Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all outcomes, and
use the model to determine probabilities of events.

b. Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data
generated from a chance process.

7.SP.8 Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams, and
simulation.

a. Understand that, just as with simple events, the probability of a compound event is the
fraction of outcomes in the sample space for which the compound event occurs.

b. Represent sample spaces for compound events using methods such as organized lists,
tables and tree diagrams. For an event described in everyday language (e.g., "rolling double
sixes"), identify the outcomes in the sample space which compose the event.

c. Design and use a simulation to generate frequencies for compound events.

©Maneuvering the Middle LLC, 2017

 PROBABILITY
TEACHER GUIDE

VOCABULARY & KEYWORDS

complement: the probability that an event will not occur
dependent events: an event in which the outcome does impact the probability of the next event
experimental probability: the ratio of the number of times an event occurs to the total number of trials
independent events: events in which the outcomes do not impact one another
probability: the ratio of the number of successful events out of the total number of events
replacement: when an item is replaced and then included in the next event
sample space: all the possible outcomes of an event
theoretical probability: the probability that an event will occur based on all the possible outcomes

COMMON MISTAKES & MISCONCEPTIONS

• Students may struggle to differentiate between independent and dependent events.
• Students may not use the correct denominator when working with and without replacement.
• Students may make mistakes multiplying two fractions.

©Maneuvering the Middle LLC, 2017

PROBABILITY Name __________________________________
Date __________________________Pd______
WARM-UP
1. The following spinner will be spun and a coin will be 2. An ice chest at a birthday party has a variety of
flipped. Audrey spins the spinner once and flips the drinks. If you randomly select a drink, do not replace it,
coin once. Create a list that contains only the and then randomly select another drink what is the
outcomes in which the spinner lands on an odd probability of selecting a lemon-lime soda and an
number. orange soda?

1 2 DRINK QUANTITY
LEMON-LIME 6
5 3
4 COLA 8
ORANGE 6

©Maneuvering the Middle LLC, 2017

Name __________________________________
PROBABILITY
Date __________________________Pd______
WARM-UP
1. The following spinner will be spun and a coin will be 2. An ice chest at a birthday party has a variety of
flipped. Audrey spins the spinner once and flips the drinks. If you randomly select a drink, do not replace it,
coin once. Create a list that contains only the and then randomly select another drink what is the
outcomes in which the spinner lands on an odd probability of selecting a lemon-lime soda and an
number. orange soda?

1 2 DRINK QUANTITY
LEMON-LIME 6
5 3
4 COLA 8
ORANGE 6

©Maneuvering the Middle LLC, 2017

PROBABILITY Name __________________________________

CHEAT SHEET - A Date __________________________Pd______

PROBABILITY EXPERIMENAL PROBABILITY

• The ratio of the number of times an
event occurs to the total number of trials
PROBABILITY is the LIKELIHOOD of • Based on data
an event occurring. • Often displayed in tables

Types of probability
# OF WAYS IT OCCURS A NUMBER CUBE IS ROLLED AND LANDS ON 4
P(EVENT) =
POSSIBLE OUTCOMES
3 OUT OF 17 SWITCHES ARE DEFECTIVE

THE COMPLEMENT of an event is the

THEORETICAL PROBABILITY
probability of the event NOT
• The probability of an event happening
occurring. based on possible outcomes
• Based on theory
# OF WAYS IT CANNOT OCCUR
P’(EVENT) =
POSSIBLE OUTCOMES
1
THE PROBABILITY OF ROLLING A 4 IS
6
SAMPLE SPACE is all of the possible A 50% CHANCE OF A COIN LANDING ON TAILS
outcomes.
• Create a list, a table, or a tree diagram
As the NUMBER OF TRIALS INCREASES,
• Multiply the various numbers of options the experimental probability APPROACHES the
together to get the total outcomes theoretical probability.

INDEPENDENT EVENTS INDEPENDENT VS. DEPENDENT

• Two or more events in which the results
do not impact one another
• Events where the item is replaced

A SPINNER IS SPUN AND A

NUMBER CUBE IS ROLLED
🂡🂩🂲🃁🂭🃗
ACE, NOT REPLACING IT, AND DRAWING A QUEEN
DEPENDENT EVENTS 2 1 1
• Two or more events in which the results 6 ・ 5 = 15
of the first impact the results of the (ace) (queen)
second
SPADE, REPLACING IT, AND DRAWING A TWO.
• Events where the item is not replaced
3 1 1
TWO NAMES ARE DRAWN FROM A 6 ・ 6 = 12
HAT WITHOUT REPLACEMENT
(spade) (2)

©Maneuvering the Middle LLC, 2017

PROBABILITY Name __________________________________

CHEAT SHEET - B Date __________________________Pd______

PROBABILITY EXPERIMENAL PROBABILITY

• The ____________ of the number of times
an event occurs to the total number of
PROBABILITY: ________________________ trials
• Based on ____________
______________________________________
• Often displayed in ____________

Types of probability
# OF WAYS IT OCCURS
P(EVENT) = A NUMBER CUBE IS ROLLED AND LANDS ON 4
POSSIBLE OUTCOMES
3 OUT OF 17 SWITCHES ARE DEFECTIVE

THE COMPLEMENT: ____________________

______________________________________ THEORETICAL PROBABILITY
• The probability of an event happening
based on all ________________________
# OF WAYS IT CANNOT OCCUR • Based on ____________
P’(EVENT) =
POSSIBLE OUTCOMES
1
THE PROBABILITY OF ROLLING A 4 IS
6
SAMPLE SPACE: ____________________ A 50% CHANCE OF A COIN LANDING ON TAILS

____________________________________
• Create a list, a table, or a tree diagram As the NUMBER OF TRIALS INCREASES,
• Multiply the various number of options the experimental probability ________________
the theoretical probability.
together to get the total outcomes

INDEPENDENT EVENTS INDEPENDENT VS. DEPENDENT

• Two or more events in which the results
____________ impact one another
• Events where the item is ____________

A SPINNER IS SPUN AND A

NUMBER CUBE IS ROLLED
🂡🂩🂲🃁🂭🃗
ACE, NOT REPLACING IT, AND DRAWING A QUEEN
DEPENDENT EVENTS
• Two or more events in which the results ・ =
of the first ____________ the results of (ace) (queen)
the second
SPADE, REPLACING IT, AND DRAWING A TWO.
• Events where the item is ____ replaced

TWO NAMES ARE DRAWN FROM A ・ =

HAT WITHOUT REPLACEMENT
(spade) (2)

©Maneuvering the Middle LLC, 2017

PROBABILITY Name __________________________________

CHEAT SHEET - C Date __________________________Pd______

PROBABILITY

Types of probability

INDEPENDENT VS. DEPENDENT

©Maneuvering the Middle LLC, 2017

 PROBABILITY
SPIN TO TEN

INSTRUCTIONS
TO PREP TO USE
• Print and copy a recording sheet for each • Using the paper clip and pencil, students will
student. spin the spinner to determine the question
they will answer.
• Students will need a paper clip and a pencil.
• Students should take turns spinning the
spinner until they have answered all
questions.

• Students should record all answers on their

recording sheet.

OTHER TIPS
• This activity works well when students are in partners or small groups of 3-4.

• Encourage mathematical conversations by designating the person spinning as the “leader” for the
problem. The leader can be responsible for explaining and teaching the steps related to the given
problem.

©Maneuvering the Middle LLC, 2017

PROBABILITY Name _____________________________________
SPIN TO TEN Date _____________________________Pd______

DIRECTIONS: Using a paper clip and a pencil, spin the spinner to determine which questions to answer.

SAM’S SPORTING GOOD’S HAS A STORAGE ROOM FULL OF

MERCHANDISE. USE THE PICTURES BELOW TO ANSWER
QUESTIONS 1 – 10.

4
or
9

1 What is the probability of randomly selecting 2 What is the probability of randomly selecting
the following off the storage room shelf? the following off the storage room shelf?

P(football) P’(soccer ball)

P(helmet) P’(tennis racquet)

P(soccer ball or cleats) P’(helmet or basketball)

3 An item will be selected from the storage 4 An item will be selected from the storage
room and then it will be replaced. How many room and then it will be replaced 100 times.
different combination of a tennis racquet and a What an approximate prediction for the number
ball are possible? of times a football or a helmet will be selected?

©Maneuvering the Middle LLC, 2017

 PROBABILITY SPIN TO TEN
5 Sam chooses a piece of equipment from the 6 What is the probability of selecting a football,
storage room at random and then replaces it. He not replacing it, and then selecting a soccer
then selects another random piece of equipment. cleat?
What is the probability that Sam selects a tennis
racquet and then a basketball?

7 What is the probability that Sam randomly 8 Sam receives a shipment of 36 football
selects a basketball first, sets it to the side, and helmets. Of the 36 football helmets in the
then selects another basketball? shipment, four of them were scratched and need
to be returned. If another shipment of 108
helmets arrive, then how many are likely to be
scratched?

9 Based on the merchandise in the storage 10 Based on the quantities in the current
room, which of the following statements is not storage room, Sam is going to place an order.
true? He plans to order 144 total items. Based on this
information, how many helmets will be in the new
A. Sam is more likely to select a ball than a order?
soccer cleat.

B. Sam is equally likely to select a football as a

basketball.

C. Sam is three times as likely to select a soccer

cleat as he is to select a tennis racquet.

D. Sam is half as likely to select a basketball as a

soccer ball.

©Maneuvering the Middle LLC, 2017

PROBABILITY Name __________________________________

QUICK CHECK Date __________________________Pd______

1. In a survey, 7 out of 8 dentists recommend a ProTooth toothbrush. Based on this 1. A B C D

information, which can the toothbrush company predict about its recommendations?
2. F G H J
A. In a survey of 24 dentists, 18 of them will recommend a ProTooth toothbrush. 3. A B C D
B. In a survey of 40 dentists, 33 of them will recommend a ProTooth toothbrush.
4. F G H J
C. In a survey of 64 dentists, 56 of them will recommend a ProTooth toothbrush.
D. In a survey of 88 dentists, 70 of them will recommend a ProTooth toothbrush. 5. A B C D
6. F G H J
2. At a pizza shop, you can choose thick or thin crust, red or white sauce, and
7. A B C D
toppings of pepperoni, cheese, or vegetarian. How many different combinations are
possible for someone who does not care for meat or white sauce? 8. F G H J

F. 3 9. A B C D
G. 24 10. F G H J
H. 9
J. 4

3. A basket of beads contains 8 red beads, 6 yellow beads, and 6 green beads. A
bead will be drawn from the basket and replaced 150 times. What is a reasonable
prediction for the number of times a green bead is drawn?

A. 45
B. 60
C. 36
D. 72

4. A student takes notes in class, completes the assignments, attends tutoring, and prepares for the test. Which
best represents the likelihood of the student being successful on the exam?

F. certain G. likely H. unlikely J. impossible

5. The spinner below is spun two times in a row. What is the probability of spinning two prime numbers?

9 25
A. C.
64 64
1 1
B. D.
4 2

©Maneuvering the Middle LLC, 2016

6. Audrey has the t-shirts listed below in her dresser drawer. She will randomly choose one t-shirt. Then she will
replace it and choose a second t-shirt. What is the probability that she chooses a polka dot shirt and then a
striped shirt?
3 6
• 5 striped t-shirts F. G.
5 45
• 6 solid t-shirts
2 2
• 2 floral t-shirts H. J.
15 45
• 2 polka dot t-shirts

7. Neil goes to the pet shop and selects a treat for his 8. Students standing in line for a theme park were
dog. He chooses one, then chooses another. What is surveyed about their favorite ride. Their responses are
the probability Neil selects a bone and then a ball? shown below. If one student is picked randomly, then
which of the following is true?
RIDE NUMBER OF
STUDENTS
ROLLER COASTERS 28
CARNIVAL GAMES 14
LIVE SHOWS 8

F. The student’s favorite ride is half as likely to be

a live show than a roller coaster.
G. The student’s favorite ride is more likely to be a
5 5 carnival game than a roller coaster.
A. C.
33 12
H. The student’s favorite ride is twice as likely to
B. 1 D. 7
3 33 be a roller coaster than the carnival games.
J. The student’s favorite ride is twice as likely to
be the carnival game than the live show.

9. A neighborhood watch association surveyed 40 10. The following playing cards are used in a game.
neighbors about their feelings of safety in the What is the probability of not selecting a prime
neighborhood. They will survey an additional 80 number?
neighbors. Based on the information, predict how
many of the 80 neighbors will feel safe?

RESPONSE NUMBER OF
NEIGHBORS 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
UNSAFE 12
NEUTRAL 10
SAFE 18

3 1
A. 39 C. 36 F. 7 H.
6
1
B. 24 D. 40 G. J. 4
3 7
©Maneuvering the Middle LLC, 2017
PROBABILITY
ANSWER KEYS

©Maneuvering the Middle LLC, 2017

 Answer Key
PROBABILITY Name __________________________________
Date __________________________Pd______
WARM-UP
1. The following spinner will be spun and a coin will be 2. An ice chest at a birthday party has a variety of
flipped. Audrey spins the spinner once and flips the drinks. If you randomly select a drink, do not replace it,
coin once. Create a list that contains only the and then randomly select another drink what is the
outcomes in which the spinner lands on an odd probability of selecting a lemon-lime soda and an
number. orange soda?

1 2 DRINK QUANTITY
LEMON-LIME 6
5 3
4 COLA 8
ORANGE 6

1, heads
1, tails
3, heads
3, tails
5, heads 9
5, tails
95
©Maneuvering the Middle LLC, 2017

Name __________________________________
PROBABILITY
Date __________________________Pd______
WARM-UP
1. The following spinner will be spun and a coin will be 2. An ice chest at a birthday party has a variety of
flipped. Audrey spins the spinner once and flips the drinks. If you randomly select a drink, do not replace it,
coin once. Create a list that contains only the and then randomly select another drink what is the
outcomes in which the spinner lands on an odd probability of selecting a lemon-lime soda and an
number. orange soda?

1 2 DRINK QUANTITY
LEMON-LIME 6
5 3
4 COLA 8
ORANGE 6

©Maneuvering the Middle LLC, 2017

 Answer Key
PROBABILITY Name _____________________________________
SPIN TO TEN Date _____________________________Pd______

DIRECTIONS: Using a paper clip and a pencil, spin the spinner to determine which questions to answer.

SAM’S SPORTING GOOD’S HAS A STORAGE ROOM FULL OF

MERCHANDISE. USE THE PICTURES BELOW TO ANSWER
QUESTIONS 1 – 10.

4
or
9

1 What is the probability of randomly selecting 2 What is the probability of randomly selecting
the following off the storage room shelf? the following off the storage room shelf?
1 7
P(football) P’(soccer ball)
4 8
1 15
P(helmet) P’(tennis racquet)
8 16
5 5
P(soccer ball or cleats) P’(helmet or basketball)
16 8
3 An item will be selected from the storage 4 An item will be selected from the storage
room and then it will be replaced. How many room and then it will be replaced 100 times.
different combination of a tennis racquet and a What an approximate prediction for the number
ball are possible? of times a football or a helmet will be selected?

10 combinations 38 footballs or helmets

©Maneuvering the Middle LLC, 2017
 PROBABILITY SPIN TO TEN
5 Sam chooses a piece of equipment from the 6 What is the probability of selecting a football,
storage room at random and then replaces it. He not replacing it, and then selecting a soccer
then selects another random piece of equipment. cleat?
What is the probability that Sam selects a tennis
racquet and then a basketball?

1 1
64 20
7 What is the probability that Sam randomly 8 Sam receives a shipment of 36 football
selects a basketball first, sets it to the side, and helmets. Of the 36 football helmets in the
then selects another basketball? shipment, four of them were scratched and need
to be returned. If another shipment of 108
helmets arrive, then how many are likely to be
scratched?

1
20 12 scratched
9 Based on the merchandise in the storage 10 Based on the quantities in the current
room, which of the following statements is not storage room, Sam is going to place an order.
true? He plans to order 144 total items. Based on this
information, how many helmets will be in the new
A. Sam is more likely to select a ball than a order?
soccer cleat.

B. Sam is equally likely to select a football as a

basketball.

C. Sam is three times as likely to select a soccer

cleats as he is to select a tennis racquet.

D. Sam is half as likely to select a basketball as a

soccer ball.
18 helmets
©Maneuvering the Middle LLC, 2017
 Answer Key
PROBABILITY Name __________________________________

QUICK CHECK Date __________________________Pd______

1. In a survey, 7 out of 8 dentists recommend a ProTooth toothbrush. Based on this 1. A B C D ●

information, which can the toothbrush company predict about its recommendations?
2. F G H J ●
A. In a survey of 24 dentists, 18 of them will recommend a ProTooth toothbrush.
●
3. A B C D
B.
C.
In a survey of 40 dentists, 33 of them will recommend a ProTooth toothbrush.
In a survey of 64 dentists, 56 of them will recommend a ProTooth toothbrush. ●
4. F G H J

D. In a survey of 88 dentists, 70 of them will recommend a ProTooth toothbrush. 5. A ●

B C D
6. F G H J ●
2. At a pizza shop, you can choose thick or thin crust, red or white sauce, and
toppings of pepperoni, cheese, or vegetarian. How many different combinations are ●
7. A B C D
possible for someone who does not care for meat or white sauce? 8. F G H J ●
F. 3 9. A B ●
C D
G.
H.
24
9
●
10. F G H J

J. 4

3. A basket of beads contains 8 red beads, 6 yellow beads, and 6 green beads. A
bead will be drawn from the basket and replaced 150 times. What is a reasonable
prediction for the number of times a green bead is drawn?

A. 45
B. 60
C. 36
D. 72

4. A student takes notes in class, completes the assignments, attends tutoring, and prepares for the test. Which
best represents the likelihood of the student being successful on the exam?

F. certain G. likely H. unlikely J. impossible

5. The spinner below is spun two times in a row. What is the probability of spinning two prime numbers?

9 25
A. C.
64 64
1 1
B. D.
4 2

©Maneuvering the Middle LLC, 2016