1.
Identified Patterns & Market Structure Analysis
Primary Pattern: A Strong Top-Down Bearish vs. Bullish Conflict
• Monthly (Largest Timeframe - Dominant Bearish Trend):
o Status: Consistently Bearish throughout the entire dataset.
o SMA Signal: The price (~147-148) is consistently trading well below the
Monthly SMA9 (~149.15) and SMA18 (~150.62), confirming the long-term
bearish structure.
o Conclusion: The overarching, dominant trend is BEARISH. This is the most
important bias.
• Weekly (Intermediate Timeframe - Bullish Counter-Trend):
o Status: Consistently Bullish for the entire period.
o SMA Signal: The price is above both the Weekly SMA9 and SMA18,
confirming a strong medium-term rally.
o Conclusion: There is a significant and persistent counter-trend BULLISH
move within the larger bearish market. This creates a powerful conflict.
• Daily (Short-Term Timeframe - The Battlefield):
o Status: Mostly Bullish but shows signs of weakening and flipping
to Bearish later in the dataset (from around Aug 12th).
o Behavior: This is where the battle between the weekly bull trend and monthly
bear trend is fought. The daily chart's direction provides the short-term trading
bias.
o Key Observation: The ADX on the Daily frame is often low (often in the
teens), indicating a ranging or weak-trend environment, which is typical
during such conflicts.
• Intraday (4H & 1H - For Execution):
o These frames switch frequently between Bullish, Bearish, and Ranging.
o They are useful only for timing entries and exits in the direction of the
higher-timeframe signals, not for determining the overall direction.
Summary of the Pattern: The market is in a large-scale correction or pullback within a
primary bear market. The weekly trend is the correction (up), and the monthly trend is the
underlying direction (down). The most probable next major move is a resumption of the
downtrend (Monthly bias), but only once the weekly bullish momentum is exhausted.
2. Trade Plan for August 25, 2025 - September 30, 2025
A. Core Principle (Bias):
• Primary Bias: BEARISH. Prepare for a resumption of the downtrend.
• Secondary Bias: Be aware that the bullish correction on the weekly chart may not be
fully complete. The final high could still be ahead.
• Overall Strategy: Look for signs of failure in the weekly bullish momentum to enter
short positions, targeting a move down towards (and potentially through) the weekly
SMA support levels.
B. Trade Scenario 1: Short Entry (High Probability)
This plan anticipates the market making a final high and then failing.
• Trigger (Entry Signal):
1. Price Action: Price reaches a significant new high on the Daily chart (e.g.,
breaks above 149.00) but then shows strong rejection (e.g., a bearish engulfing
candle, pin bar, or double top formation).
2. Momentum Confirmation: The Daily DI_Signal confirms by turning
from Bullish to Bearish.
3. Trend Exhaustion: The Daily ADX rises from its low levels (e.g., above 25),
indicating a new trend is starting, and the 4H chart turns bearish.
• Entry: Sell/short on a retest of the broken resistance (now acting as resistance) or on
a break below a key 4H support level (e.g., a recent swing low).
• Stop Loss: Place above the recent swing high that triggered the bearish signal.
• Profit Targets (PT):
o PT1: Weekly SMA9 (Area will change, but currently ~146.9). Take partial
profit.
o PT2: Weekly SMA18 (Area will change, but currently ~145.5). Take more
profit.
o PT3: Look for a move towards 144.00 and possibly lower, as the monthly bear
trend reasserts itself.
C. Trade Scenario 2: Bullish Continuation (Low Probability Contingency)
If the bullish correction is stronger than anticipated.
• Trigger: A daily close above a significant resistance level (e.g., a clean break and
close above 149.50) with the Daily ADX strengthening and the 4H chart bullish.
• Bias Impact: This would challenge the primary bearish bias. It would suggest a much
deeper correction is underway, potentially targeting the Monthly SMA9 (~149.15).
• Action: If this occurs, stand aside. The monthly trend is still bearish, making long
trades against it very risky. The best action is to wait for this strength to fade and
present a better shorting opportunity at a higher level.
D. Trade Management:
• Risk per Trade: Never risk more than 1-2% of your account capital on a single trade.
• Position Sizing: Calculate your lot size based on the distance between your entry and
your stop loss.
• Time Filter: Be cautious of trades initiated around major macroeconomic news
events (e.g., BoJ announcements, US NFP, CPI), which can cause volatility that
violates technical levels.
3. Trading Checklist (To be Used Before Every Trade)
Pre-Trade Checklist (The Setup):
1. Monthly Trend: Is the status still Bearish? (If not, reassess entire plan).
2. Weekly Trend: Is the status still Bullish? (This confirms we are in the corrective
phase).
3. Daily Signal: What is the Daily_DI_Signal? Is the ADX low (ranging) or rising
(trending)?
4. Confluence: Does my intended trade direction (preferably short) align with the
Monthly trend?
5. Key Levels: Have I marked key support and resistance levels on the Daily and 4H
charts? (e.g., previous highs, weekly SMAs).
6. Trigger: Am I waiting for a clear price action signal (rejection, break of
structure) CONFIRMED by a DI_Signal flip on the Daily/4H chart?
7. Economic Calendar: Am I aware of high-impact news events scheduled in the next
24 hours? Should I avoid trading during these times?
Trade Execution Checklist:
8. [ ] Entry: Is my entry order set at a precise level (e.g., after a retest, on a break)?
9. [ ] Stop Loss: Is my stop loss placed logically (on the other side of a swing point) and does
it represent a sane amount of risk (1-2% of account)?
10. [ ] Profit Targets: Are my take-profit levels set at logical technical areas (e.g., Weekly
SMAs, previous support)?
11. [ ] Risk/Reward Ratio: Is my potential reward at least 1.5 times my potential risk?
Post-Trade Checklist:
12. [ ] Journal: Have I recorded the reason for the trade, the setup, and the outcome?
13. [ ] Emotion Check: Am I following the plan without letting fear or greed influence my
decisions?
Remember: This plan is based on the technical structure provided. The market is dynamic.
Continuously monitor the higher timeframes (Weekly and Monthly) for any change in status
that would invalid this bearish bias. The monthly bearish trend is your guide; trade in its
direction for the highest probability setups
