Systemic design

for tackling
complexity
Session 4: Envisioning

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Agenda
Four tools to define desired futures
⁃ System Value Proposition (exercise)
⁃ Three Horizons (exercise)
⁃ Paradoxing (exercise if time left)
⁃ Synthesis Maps (homework)

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Envisioning the
Desired Future

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Stage 4
Envisioning the Desired Future
This middle stage shifts the journey from the
current system towards desired futures.
Stage 4 tools draw on visualisation, strategic
foresight and defining total system value.

⁃ Envisioning provides the first opportunity for

reframing a systems change programme or its
goals.
⁃ Here, possible futures desired by system
stakeholders are articulated and we map the
envisioned value created by the vision.

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System Value
Proposition
Cocreating value across the whole system

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System Value Proposition
Cf. A traditional business value proposition is a statement defined by
a strategy team that describes the unique value & benefits to users,
and the competitive advantage this confers in a market.

The total System Value Proposition defines all the beneficiaries of

value creation.
The purpose of the system value proposition is to make the ideal
future explicit and explore the benefits we want to create in the
future for individuals, organisations and society.
⁃ Levels: micro, meso, macro
⁃ Lenses: Economical, ecological, psychological, social

Inspired by the value framework of Elke den Ouden © Service Design College
Exercise - MIRO

System Value Proposition

Industry

Envision the value provided across a social

ecosystem by the envisioned program Shop/retailer

interventions.
Consumer

Step 1: define the levels

⁃ Micro: Individual human value
⁃ Meso: Value for organisations and ecosystems
⁃ Macro: Broad societal value

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Exercise - MIRO

System Value Proposition

Industry

Step 2: articulate the intended value

creation on the 3 levels Shop/retailer Ethical
industry

What value do you want to create by acting

on the leverage points and loops? Consumer Circular
economy
partnerships
Saving Lower
money footprint

Four Lenses - dimensions of value

⁃ Economic – Financial & built Peace of
mind

⁃ Ecological – Value to environments Belonging to

group of ethical
entrepreneurs

⁃ Psychological – What people desire Wellbeing

of

⁃ Social – Shared social benefit

workers

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Example

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Three
Horizons
The Patterning of Hope

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Three Horizons
A widely-used futures method engaging
stakeholder insights, rather than trend analysis.
Not a "horizon scan" but a vision plan.
Three Horizons portrays the salient strategies
determined to be fit for evolving timeframes.

Why
⁃ Three Horizons creates a future vision & reveals
innovation pathways that unfold to that future.

Based on the model of Bill Sharpe and Tony Hodgson © Service Design College
Three Horizons
What is the desired future (vision)?
⁃ A collaborative foresight approach
⁃ Gaining agreement on vision
⁃ Defining & visualising a desired future
⁃ Engaging a requisite variety of worldviews,
interests & perspectives
⁃ Showing different perceptions of the future
(temporal cognition, horizon preference)
⁃ Making it accessible (3 Horizons workshops,
e.g. are ideational, not method focused)
⁃ Defining future scenarios & pathways

Image from synthesis map of MacSpadyen, Shaikh, Simpson, Barros, Karunakar (2022) © Service Design College
Exercise - MIRO

Temporal transition mapping

H3: What are our values & desires for the future?
⁃ What trends are moving there already?
⁃ What aspects of that unfolding future do we
see now?
⁃ Use the leverages levels to identify them
⁃ e.g. which are the emerging paradigm shifts?

H1: Where do we see evidence of the erosion of

the current system, its fit to the desired future?

H2: What is emerging now into the transition?

What innovations are shaping the direction to H3?

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Three Horizons case
⁃ There are many different ways the 3H
format can be used, in online, surveys,
live sketching, group work
⁃ The Journeys tool works well on
whiteboard (shown ) or printed large
⁃ We can use a generative workshop to
collect the responses to prompts for
each future horizon
⁃ These will quickly fill the tool – yet
more work may be needed to define
trends, clarify terms, and cluster

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Three Horizons cases
⁃ With a survey or large set of input,
the 3H inputs are assessed for
theme & pattern
⁃ Each bubble is a label describing a
cluster of sticky notes around it.
⁃ We reduce by factor of 7/8
So ~200 notes to 25 clusters
⁃ The labels become final frames for
the major trends/patterns in each
horizon shift
⁃ The 3rd is a vision statement
H2 shows a pathway

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Three Horizons

Sustainable Seafood industry model

- Developed by Bounce Beyond workshops

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Paradoxing
Opposites attract and can inspire solutions

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Paradoxing
A method to help you design for diverse needs
and multiple points of view.
⁃ Working with paradoxes is about AND thinking
instead of OR thinking.

Why
⁃ At this stage, we want understand the tensions in
the system and the dominant practices. This is a tool
for re-framing that can be used to inspire, and set
aside.
⁃ We can also use them to identify emergent
initiatives that are (also) working on the other side
of the paradox.

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Exercise (if time left) - MIRO

Paradoxing
⁃ Assess the current dominant practices and
emerging initiatives with the help of the
paradox cards. Which side of the paradox do
they lean towards?

⁃ Discuss which other sides of the paradoxes

should be included in your vision of the future
(e.g. also provide shared ownership). In this
way, you can also better accommodate the
multiple perspectives and needs in the system.

⁃ For each paradox pair, see if you can create a

reinforcing or balancing loop.

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Paradoxing case
Project pregnant women in poverty

⁃ First meeting between volunteers helping

the women and the Federal Public Service
responsible for Health

⁃ How can they start working together?

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Text © Service Design College
Synthesis Map
A picture says more than 1000 words

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Synthesis map
A visual method to integrate all the models
from the system analyses. Create a narrative
system story that can be shared widely.

Why
⁃ To create a common understanding and
narrative to communicate to stakeholders
⁃ A visualization of wicked problems in the
current system
⁃ A rationale for proposing recommendations
for future system intervention.

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Synthesis map
How
⁃ What – To visualise the core issues, use graphs that reveal the magnitude
of the framed problem, its evolution over time, or its local effects.

⁃ Where – Show how the issue shows up in the system.

E.g. an iceberg can show patterns and structures in a system

⁃ Who – Show actors and actants in the context of a whole system.

Use personas to humanise the journeys or narrative.

⁃ How – Timelines and influence maps show the macro-scale evolution of

system formation or cycles of growth, decline, and change. Journey maps
and touchpoints situate the micro-experience of actors in the system.

⁃ Why – Underlying systemic problems are often revealed by highlighting

applicable system archetypes, and visualising the core story loops with
possible leverage points.
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Synthesis map case
⁃ Hyperconnectivity map integrates > 5 different
system models
⁃ Clear narrative in numbered steps, summaries
⁃ Brain metaphor trope to anchor mental model

Case concept – Two loops

⁃ Addiction loop – The mapping started with
Netflix binge watching
⁃ Very similar to consumer "hooked" loop
⁃ Discovered this was driven by algorithmic
platform loop sensing & serving content Pupul Bisht et al., “Is It Time to Pull the Plug?
The Social System of Internet Hyperconnectivity” OCAD University.

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Homework

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Homework: Putting it together
From the workshop activities so far:
⁃ Start to create a synthesis map by integrating
the models already created into a single
organized map.
⁃ Follow the guidelines for a synthesis map (book,
page 140) and use your models as answers to
the questions that compose a synthesis.
Give one or two answers to each of the five
questions
⁃ Be prepared to share an example
Don’t worry too much about visual refinement!
A first sketch is enough.

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Q&A

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Live sessions calendar
Week 1 Introduction
Week 2 (Oct. 07) Framing & Listening

Week 3 No live session, time to conduct interviews

Week 4 (Oct. 21) Understanding

Week 5 (Oct. 28,) Envisioning
Week 6 (Nov. 04) Exploring

Week 7 No live session, time to prepare presentations

Week 8 (Nov. 18) Planning & Transition

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