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Probability Method in Traffic Engineering

The document discusses different probability distributions used in traffic engineering including the binomial, Poisson, and normal distributions. It provides examples of how to calculate probabilities of events using each distribution based on sample speed limit and traffic data. The binomial distribution is used to calculate the probability of a certain number of vehicles breaking the speed limit. The Poisson and normal distributions are used to calculate probabilities of continuous variables like speeds falling within given ranges.

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632 views21 pages

Probability Method in Traffic Engineering

The document discusses different probability distributions used in traffic engineering including the binomial, Poisson, and normal distributions. It provides examples of how to calculate probabilities of events using each distribution based on sample speed limit and traffic data. The binomial distribution is used to calculate the probability of a certain number of vehicles breaking the speed limit. The Poisson and normal distributions are used to calculate probabilities of continuous variables like speeds falling within given ranges.

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trtl_1970
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© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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TRAFFIC ENGINEERING

PROBABILITY METHOD IN TRAFFIC ENGINEERING

PROBABILITY METHOD

Poisson Distribution Normal Distribution


Binomial Distribution

BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

Consider an observation in which a particular result may or may not vehicle break a speed limit. For example, a number of vehicle is observation and it may be acceptable or not be acceptable speed limit

BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
EXAMPLE ( All Units in km/h) 63, 63, 55, 58, 68, 61, 68, 63, 55, 62, 72, 57, 61, 68, 78, 64, 63, 51, 59, 75, 70, 74, 58, 69, 65, 66, 58, 72, 74, 75, 60, 73, 69, 57, 63, 65, 72, 59

BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
nC k

pk q n-k

p = the probability is acceptable or occur q = the probability is not acceptable or occur = 1p n = number of observation k = frequency

BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

Let say, speed limit that particular road is 60 km/h. Probability vehicle not break speed limit, p = 11 / 38 = 0.285 The first 10 vehicles observe, only 2 vehicle not break speed limit

So, n = 10 and k = 2

BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
P (vehicle not break speed limit) = nCk pk q n-k = 10C2 0.2852 0.715 10-2 = 45 ( 0.082) (0.0683)

= 0.252
= 25.2 %

POISSON DISTRIBUTION

Know as counting distribution. It has the clear physical meaning of a number of events X occurring in a specified counting interval of duration T Indeed, the Poisson would have been a suitable approximation to the low p, high n cases in the preceding subsection

POISSON DISTRIBUTION

P( X = r ) = e - r / r! = Mean of distribution

Example Probability driver drive 54km/h from group data, = 64.579 km/h, P( X = 54 ) = e -64.579 64.57954 / 54! = 8.987x10-29 5.558x1097/2.308x1071 = 0.0216 = 2.16 %

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

A variable which can take on any value within a given range is called a continuous variable. The normal distribution allows us to calculate the probability of continuous variable falling within a particular range of value

The normal probability density function is a bellshaped curve

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
Z = (x ) / = mean = standard deviation

NORMAL DISTRIB UTION

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

Single operation P (x < a) Direct Read From Table (DRT) P (x > a) (1 DRT) P (x < -a) ( 1 DRT) P (x > -a) (DRT)

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
For Example group data, = 65 and = 7 Z = (x ) / P (x < 54) = P (Z < (54 - 65)) / 7) = P( Z < -11 / 7) = P ( Z < -1.57) = 1 0.9418 = 0.0582 = 5.82 %

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

P (x > 54) = P (Z > (54 - 65)) / 7) = P( Z > -11 / 7) = P ( Z > -1.57) = 0.9418 = 94.18 %

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

P (x < 74) = P (Z < (74 - 65)) / 7) = P( Z < 9 / 7) = P ( Z < 1.29) = 0.9015 = 90.15 %

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

P (x > 74) = P (Z > (74 - 65)) / 7) = P( Z > 9 / 7) = P ( Z > 1.29) = 1- 0.9015 = 0.0985 = 9.85 %

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

Double operation

a < x < b P ( x < b) P (x < a) DRT - DRT -a < x < b P( x < b) P (x < -a) DRT - (1-DRT) -a < x < -b P ( x < -b) P ( x < -a) (1 DRT) (1 DRT)

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
P(54 < x < 74) = P( Z<(74-65)/7) P(Z<(54-65)/7) = P ( Z < 1.29) P (Z < -1.57) = 0.9015 - (1 - 0.9418 ) = 0.9015 - 0.0582 = 0.8433 = 84.33 %

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
P( 70< x <74) = P( Z<(74-65)/7) P(Z<(70-65)/7) = P ( Z < 1.29) P (Z < 0.71) = 0.9015 - 0.7611 = 0.1404 = 14.04 %

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
P(54< x<60) = P( Z<(60-65)/7) P(Z<(54-65)/7) = P ( Z < -0.71) P (Z < -1.57) = (1 - 0.7611) - (1 - 0.9418 ) = 0.2389 - 0.0582 = 0.1807 = 18.07 %

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