Statistics in Public Administration
Introduction and Data Collection
Why a manager needs to know about
statistics
The growth and development of modern
statistics
Key definitions
Descriptive versus inferential statistics
(continued)
Why data are needed
Types of data and their sources
Design of survey research
Types of sampling methods
Types of survey errors
Why a Manager Needs to
Know about Statistics
To know how to properly present
information
To know how to draw conclusions
about populations based on sample
information
To know how to improve processes
To know how to obtain reliable
forecasts
The Growth and Development
of Modern Statistics
Needs of government to
collect data on its citizens
The development of the
mathematics of probability
theory
The advent of the computer
Data
Data: facts and figures from which
conclusions can be drawn
Data set: the data that are collected for a
particular study
Elements: may be people, objects, events, or
other entries
Variable: any characteristic of an element
1-6
Data Continued
Measurement: A way to assign a value of a
variable to the element
Quantitative: the possible measurements of
the values of a variable are numbers that
represent quantities
Qualitative: the possible measurements fall
into several categories
Cross-Sectional Data
Cross-sectional data: Data collected at the
same or approximately the same point in time
Time series data: data collected over
different time periods
Time Series Data
Data Sources
Existing sources: data already gathered by public or
private sources
Internet
Library
Private data sources
Experimental and observational studies: data we
collect ourselves for a specific purpose
Response variable: variable of interest
Factors: other variables related to response variable
Descriptive Statistics and
Statistical Inference
Descriptive statistics: the science of
describing the important aspects of a set of
measurements
Statistical inference: the science of using a
sample of measurements to make
generalizations about the important aspects of
a population of measurements
Three Case Studies That Illustrate
Sampling and Statistical Inference
1. Estimating Cell Phone Costs
2. The Marketing Research Case: Rating a New
Bottle Design
3. The Car Mileage Case: Estimating Mileage
1-12
Ratio, Interval, Ordinal, and Nominative
Scales of Measurement (Optional)
Quantitative variables
Ratio variable: a quantitative variable measured on a
scale such that ratios of its value are meaningful and
there is an inherently defined zero value
Interval variable: a quantitative variable where ratios
are not meaningful and there is no defined zero
Qualitative variables (categorical)
Ordinal variable: a qualitative variable for which there is
a meaningful ranking of the categories
Nominative variable: a qualitative variable for which
there is no meaningful ranking of the categories
Key Definitions
A population (universe) is the collection of
things under consideration
A sample is a portion of the population
selected for analysis
A parameter is a summary measure computed
to describe a characteristic of the population
A statistic is a summary measure computed to
describe a characteristic of the sample
Populations and Samples
Population The set of all elements about which we
wish to draw conclusions (people,
objects or events)
Census An examination of the entire population
of measurements
Sample A selected subset of the units of a
population
Population and Sample
Population Sample
Use statistics to
summarize features
Use parameters to
summarize features
Inference on the population from the sample
Statistical Methods
Descriptive statistics
Collecting and describing data
Inferential statistics
Drawing conclusions and/or making
decisions concerning a population based
only on sample data
Descriptive Statistics
Collect data
e.g. Survey
Present data
e.g. Tables and graphs
Characterize data
X i
e.g. Sample mean = n
Inferential Statistics
Estimation
e.g.: Estimate the population
mean weight using the
sample mean weight
Hypothesis testing
e.g.: Test the claim that the
population mean weight is
120 pounds
Drawing conclusions and/or making decisions
concerning a population based on sample results.
Why We Need Data
To provide input to survey
To provide input to study
To measure performance of service or
production process
To evaluate conformance to standards
To assist in formulating alternative courses
of action
To satisfy curiosity
Data Sources
Primary Secondary
Data Collection Data Compilation
Print or Electronic
Observation Survey
Experimentation
Types of Data
D a ta
Categorical Num erical
(Q ualitative) (Q uantitative)
Discrete Continuous
Design of Survey Research
Choose an appropriate mode of response
Reliable primary modes
Personal interview
Telephone interview
Mail survey
Less reliable self-selection modes (not appropriate
for making inferences about the population)
Television survey
Internet survey
Printed survey on newspapers and magazines
Product or service questionnaires
Design of Survey Research
(continued)
Identify broad categories
List complete and non-overlapping categories
that reflect the theme
Formulate accurate questions
Make questions clear and unambiguous. Use
universally-accepted definitions
Test the survey
Pilot test the survey on a small group of
participants to assess clarity and length
Design of Survey Research
(continued)
Write a cover letter
State the goal and purpose of the survey
Explain the importance of a response
Provide assurance of respondent’s anonymity
Offer incentive gift for respondent participation
Reasons for Drawing a Sample
Less time consuming than a census
Less costly to administer than a census
Less cumbersome and more practical to
administer than a census of the targeted
population
Types of Sampling Methods
Samples
Non-Probability Probability Samples
Samples
Simple
Random Stratified
Judgement Chunk
Cluster
Systematic
Quota
Probability Sampling
Subjects of the sample are chosen based on
known probabilities
Probability Samples
Simple
Systematic Stratified Cluster
Random
Simple Random Samples
Every individual or item from the frame has
an equal chance of being selected
Selection may be with replacement or without
replacement
Samples obtained from table of random
numbers or computer random number
generators
Systematic Samples
Decide on sample size: n
Divide frame of N individuals into groups of k
individuals: k=n/n
Randomly select one individual from the 1st
group
Select every k-th individual thereafter
N = 64
n=8 First Group
k=8
Stratified Samples
Population divided into two or more groups
according to some common characteristic
Simple random sample selected from each
group
The two or more samples are combined into
one
Cluster Samples
Population divided into several “clusters,”
each representative of the population
Simple random sample selected from each
The samples are combined into one
Population
divided
into 4
clusters.
Advantages and Disadvantages
Simple random sample and systematic sample
Simple to use
May not be a good representation of the
population’s underlying characteristics
Stratified sample
Ensures representation of individuals across the
entire population
Cluster sample
More cost effective
Less efficient (need larger sample to acquire the
same level of precision)
Evaluating Survey Worthiness
What is the purpose of the survey?
Is the survey based on a probability sample?
Coverage error – appropriate frame
Nonresponse error – follow up
Measurement error – good questions elicit
good responses
Sampling error – always exists
Types of Survey Errors
Excluded from
Coverage error frame.
Follow up on
Non response error non responses.
Sampling error Chance
differences from
sample to sample.
Measurement error
Bad Question!
POPULATION AND
SAMPLES
Chap 1-37
SAMPLING
It is very often in our daily life
Calmorin suggested a different formula to have a scientific
determination of sample size, the following formula is:
Ss = Sample size
N = Total number of population
V = The standard value (2.58) of 1 percent of
probability with 0.99 reliability
Se = Sampling error (0.01)
P = The largest possible proportion (0.50)
