Probability
Concepts and
Application
Prepared by: Ms. Marjorie S. Tigon
2.4 Sample Space, Events, and
Experiment
2.5 Mutually Exclusive and
Probability Collectively Exhaustive Events
Concepts 2.6 Statistically Independent
Events
and
Application
• Sample space is a collection or a
set of possible outcomes of a
random experiment.
Sample • This sample space is represented
Space, using the symbol, “S”.
Events, • The subset of possible outcomes of
an experiment is called events.
and • A sample space may contain a
Expiremen number of outcomes that depends
on the experiment.
ts • If it contains a finite number of
outcomes, then it is known as
discrete or finite sample spaces.
• List of possible results when running the
Sample experiment just once.
Space
• Event is the subset of a sample space.
• A set of outcomes from an experiment.
Sample • For example, in tossing a coins; there are
Event two possible outcomes the Head and the
Tail. These are the events of the sample
space.
Mutually
Exclusive • mutually exclusive if only one of the events
can occur on any one trial.
and • Cannot happen at the same time.
Collectivel • Example: tossing of coin
y • collectively exhaustive if the list of
Exhaustiv outcomes includes every possible outcome.
e Events
Mutually Exclusive and Collectively Exhaustive
Events
Adding Mutually
Exclusive Events
• Union of two events
• The rule of addition allows
determining the probability
that at least one of the
events occurs (it is known
as the union of the
events).
• P(event A or event B) = P(event A)
+ P(event B)
• P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
Adding Mutually
Exclusive Events
• A single 6-sided die is rolled.
What is the probability of
rolling a 2 or a 5?
• P(2) = 1/6
• P(5) = 1/6
• P(2 or 5) = P(2) + P(5) = 1/6
+ 1/6
• = 2/6 = 1/3
• Non-mutually-exclusive means that some
overlap exists between the two events in
Law of question and the formula compensates
for this by subtracting the probability of
Addition for the overlap, P(A and B), from the sum of
the probabilities of A and B.
Events that • When the events are not mutually
exclusive, it must be modified to account
are not for double counting.
Mutually • P(event A or event B) = P(event A) +
P(event B) – P(event a and event B both
Exclusive occurring)
• P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)
Law of Addition for
Events that are not
Mutually Exclusive
• This concept of subtracting the
probability of outcomes that are
common to both events. When
events are mutually exclusive, the
area of overlap, called the
intersection.
• The events drawing a 5 and
Law of drawing a diamond out of the
card deck. These events are not
Addition mutually exclusive.
for Events • P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and
B)
that are • P(five or diamond) = P(five) +
not P(diamond) – P(five or diamond)
Mutually = 4/52 + 13/52 – 1/52
Exclusive = 17/52 – 1/52
= 16/52 = 4/13
• The occurrence of one event has no effect on
the probability of occurrence of the second
event.
• An independent event is an event that has no
connection to another event’s chances of
Statisticall happening (or not happening).
• In other words, the event has no effect on
y the probability of another event occurring.
Independent events in probability are no
Independe different from independent events in real life.
nt Events • Where you work has no effect on what color
car you drive.
• Buying a lottery ticket has no effect on
having a child with blue eyes.
1. Marginal
Three Types 2. Joint
of Probability 3. Conditional
under both
Statistical
Independence
and Statistical
Dependence
Marginal (or
simple) probability
• A probability of an event occurring.
• Example: if we toss a fair die, the
marginal probability of a landing
face is up is P(die is a 2) = 1/6
• P(2) = 1/6
Joint Probability
• Two or more independent events
occurring is the product of marginal
or simple probabilities.
• P(AB) = P(A) x P(B)
• Where:
• P(AB) = joint probability of events A
and B occurring together, or one after
the other
• P(A) = marginal probability of event A
• P(B) = marginal probability of event B
Joint Probability
• What is the joint probability
of rolling the number five
twice in a fair six-sided dice?
• P(AB) = P(A) x P(B)
• P(AB) = P(5) x P(5)
• P(AB) = 1/6 x 1/6
• P(AB) = 1/36 =. 0.028
Conditional
Probability
• A conditional probability is the probability of
an event occurring given that another event
has take place.
• is expressed as P(A|B)
• or “the probability of event B, given that
event A has occurred.”
• P(A|B) would mean “the conditional
probability of event A, given that event B has
taken place.”
• Since events are independent the occurrence
of one in no way affects the outcome of
another P(A|B) = P(A) and P(A|B) = P(B).
Conditional
Probability
• Example:
• Suppose there are three marbles – red,
blue, and green – from a bag.
• The conditional probability of drawing
the red marble would be:
• P(R) = 1/3 ;
• Assuming this first event occurs, there
will be two marbles remaining, with
which having 50% or ½ chance of being
drawn.
• P(B) = 1/2
• https://byjus.com/maths/sample-space/
• https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-events-mutually-exclu
sive.html
• https://www.mathbootcamps.com/what-is-a-sample-space/
• https://www.vedantu.com/question-answer/any-subset-of-sample-sp
ace-is-called-a-event-b-class-10-maths-cbse-5f4b1fb756e9d47410adb
3da
• https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/other/m
utually-exclusive-events/
• https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/additionruleforprobabilities.
asp#:~:text=Non%2Dmutually%2Dexclusive%20means%20that,proba
bilities%20of%20Y%20and%20Z
