C1: Future Technology Detecting Tools & Techniques

C1: Future Technology Detecting Tools & Techniques

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  Preparing for theFuture: Technological Challenges and Beyond C1: Technology Detecting Tools & Techniques Brian Kelly Independent researcher/consultant at UK Web Focus Ltd. Tony Hirst Senior lecturer at The Open University Contact Details Brian Kelly Tony Hirst Email: ukwebfocus@gmail.com Email: tony.hirst@gmail.com Twitter: @briankelly Twitter: @psychemedia Blog: http://ukwebfocus.com/ Blog: http://blog.ouseful.info/ Slides and further information available at http://ukwebfocus.com/events/ili-2015-preparing-for-the-future/ UK Web Focus Event hashtag: #ili2015fut
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  C: Tools &Techniques Some Tools and Techniques Some tools and techniques we may use: • “What did you notice for the first time?” • Trend analyses (pros and cons) • How did we get here? • The history of the world backwards • “Did you try the library?” • Listening to experts • Asking the audience 2
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  C: Tools &Techniques “What did you notice for the first time?” Use of this approach at ILI 2013: • Get people thinking • Help to reflect on changes (“when did policeman start to look young!”) • May highlight relevant examples (esp. from international audience) 3
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  C: Tools &Techniques Trend Analysis: Mobile (1) • We now know of the importance of Mobile 4 Tecmark Digital Marketing Agency
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  C: Tools &Techniques Trend Analysis: Mobile (2) Need to gather evidence from multiple sources 5
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  C: Tools &Techniques Trend Analysis: Mobile (3) We now know of the importance of Mobile: but did we say the same when WAP came along? 6
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  C: Tools &Techniques Trend Analysis: Search Engines • “#Blekko traffic goes through the roof – for good reason. Try it out!” • Based on blog post entitled “Blekko’s Traffic Is Up Almost 400 Percent; Here Are The CEO’s Five Reasons Why” (includes dissatisfaction with Google) 7 Is Blekko’s Traffic Really Going Through The Roof? Will It Challenge Google?, UK Web Focus blog, 18 April 2012
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  C: Tools &Techniques Spinning the Trends! Membership numbers for your organisation, 2002-2014 8Your competitors You are the in charge of marketing and have to write the annual report. How can you provide a positive report on membership figures?
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  C: Tools &Techniques Spinning the Trends! “Looking at the year on year graph of membership figure, 2013 definitely shows signs of improvement compared with previous years” 9 “xxx has steered [organisation] through a period of change and reform, which has seen membership numbers stabilise and member services improve.” Annual Review 2014 2013 2012 2010 2011 PDF
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  C: Tools &Techniques About These Figures Membership numbers for CILIP 10 BCS (British Computer Society) Issues: • We will want to be positive But will: • lack of awareness mean we fail to take action? • we make invalid assumptions (e.g. significant decreases during Labour government) ALA (American Library Association)
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  C: Tools &Techniques How Did We Get Here? Scenario: It’s 2020. Despite sceptism from critics the technology you spotted as significant ten years early is now widely used. Explain the technical, social, political and economic reasons which affected the take-up of the technology. Describe the impact on competitive technologies. 11 Possible limitations of approach: • Over-optimism (“it’s open source; government encourages innovation; …”) • Unlikely to provide new insights to sceptics
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  C: Tools &Techniques The History of the Web Backwards Take today’s embedded technology and reverse time to find reasons for its demise • Can provide new insights • May be especially useful for fans of the technology 12Another alternative history is given by Alan Cann
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  C: Tools &Techniques The History of the Social Web Backwards From a fan of social web and user of Facebook, the 13 year history of the demise and death of Facebook, backwards • EU decision on illegality of “Safe Harbor” agreement marked the demise of global social web services and a move towards decentralised services, ownership of content and a revival of identi.ca and Diaspora • After a slow decrease in usage, the enforced removal of ads on mobile apps led to unprofitability and eventual cessation of mobile apps • The retreat of social web to the desktop wasn’t enough and the rejection of the coalition government in 2010 and the election of a socialist “New Labour government” heralded the demise of the social web • By 2005 Facebook was only used by a few students in 21 universities around the world • Facebook officially ceased to exist in October 2003 and Mark Zuckerberg started a course at Harvard University 13 Legal drivers Business models Political changes Reality Reality
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  C: Tools &Techniques “Did You Try the Library?” slide 41 – a thought experiment I have high hopes for in the right workshop setting…! if you overheard someone answer a question you didn’t hear with the phrase “did you try the library?”, what might the question be? You can then also pivot the question to identify possible competitors; for example, if a sensible answer to the same question is “did you try Amazon?”, Amazon might be a competitor for the delivery of that service.14 From report on workshop at ILI 2013
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  C: Tools &Techniques Listening to Experts You: • Go to a conference and listen to an expert • Read a report written to expert in sector • Organise an event with input from experts The experts identify relevant solutions But does this always work? • SGML for sharing computer documentation • METS metadata standard 15
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  C: Tools &Techniques Should ACOCG Use SGML? 2-day SGML workshop organised by ACOCG in March 1990 Context: ACOCG wish to distribute viewgraphs; teaching material and manual across HE sector so they can be updated for local use Questions for workshop delegates: • Is SGML the right protocol to use? • If so, are DAPHNE DTDs good starting point? • If so, what changes are used? • … 16
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  C: Tools &Techniques Should ACOCG Use SGML? Audience • 13 speakers and additional 15 delegates • Included SGML experts Main Recommendations • SGML should be adopted for document distribution • A set of DTDs should be established • Experiences should be shared across sector Reality • Documentation probably produced using MS Word! Observations • SGML was too heavyweight • Sector was gaining expertise in DTP and WYSIWYG word processors • In 1998 XML standard released, a lightweight update to SGML 17
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  C: Tools &Techniques We commission reports from experts in the field 18PDF
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  C: Tools &Techniques We commission reports from experts in a field Should we be surprised that they highlight the importance of the area they are experts in?! Their expertise is important, but we need to have counter- balances 19 … is an information professional who has specialized in the fields of electronic information provision for over 20 years. In recent years, he has specialized in metadata for digital libraries, in which capacity he is a member of the editorial board for the METS (Metadata Encoding and Transmission Standard) standard for digital library metadata.
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  C: Tools &Techniques Asking the Audience Hands up if you have: Used a mobile device for work-related purposes in bed Options: Yes, No or I’m indecisive! 20 “20% of the iPad users spent time with their iPad in bed” 2010 Informal survey (Twitter & blog post), March 2012
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  C: Tools &Techniques Questions? 21