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Fault Tree Analysis

Event tree analysis (ETA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) are methods used in quantitative and qualitative risk analysis to develop logical trees. A fault tree uses deductive logic to identify the sequence of component failures that could lead to a defined system failure or top event. It provides a visual representation of the relationships between failures and their causes. A fault tree analysis begins by defining an undesired event and tracing it back through successive causes until basic causes are identified. An event tree uses inductive logic to analyze how initial events propagate forward to end states.

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KAUSTAV ROY
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160 views24 pages

Fault Tree Analysis

Event tree analysis (ETA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) are methods used in quantitative and qualitative risk analysis to develop logical trees. A fault tree uses deductive logic to identify the sequence of component failures that could lead to a defined system failure or top event. It provides a visual representation of the relationships between failures and their causes. A fault tree analysis begins by defining an undesired event and tracing it back through successive causes until basic causes are identified. An event tree uses inductive logic to analyze how initial events propagate forward to end states.

Uploaded by

KAUSTAV ROY
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Logic Tree &

Consequence Modelling
Event tree analysis (ETA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) are two distinct methods for
developing logical trees in both quantitative and qualitative risk analysis.

A fault tree is based on a deductive logic starting by considering an event of system


failure and then aims to deduct which causal sequence of component failures could
lead to the system failure. The system is thus often referred to as a top event.

A significant difference between the two types of trees is though that the fault trees
take basis in deductive (looking backwards) logic and the event trees are inductive
(looking forward).
How to make a Fault tree

1. Define the undesired event. The primary fault or failure being analyzed
2. Deduce the event’s immediate causes
3. Keep stepping back through events until the most basic causes are identified
4. Construct a fault tree diagram
5. Evaluate the fault tree analysis
Car hits object

Driver does not Car brake fails


see object

Object just Driver Driver Car going Brake weak


Round the drunk asleep Too fast
corner
A fault tree creates a visual record of a system that shows the logical relationship between
events & causes that lead to failure. It helps others quickly understand the results of your
Analysis and pinpoint weakness in the design and identifying errors.

The primary or basic event is denoted by

An external event is denoted by


It is an event that is normal and guaranteed
To happen
A fault event which is
OR gate: Basic in a given fault tree
But not required to be
An event occurs as long as at least one of the
developed to its cause
Input take place

AND gate:
An event occurs only if all input condition are
met
Information about events may be measured in units of frequency or probability.
Some programs work out everything by converting all frequencies to probabilities.
Probability of failure of pump X, P(X) =0.25
Probability of failure of pump X, P(Y) =0.1
Probability of electrical supply failure, P(E)
=0.1
0.325x0.325 = 0.106

0.1+0.25-0.1x0.25 = 0.1+0.25-0.1x0.25 =
0.325 0.325
Boolean Manipulation

(A+B).(A+C) =

A.A + A.C + B.A + B.C =

(A + A.C) + B.A + B.C =

(A + B.A) + B.C =

A + B.C
A = power supply
B =pump X
C = pump Y

(A+B).(A+C) =
A.A + A.C + A.B + B.C =
(A + A.C) + A.B + B.C =
(A + A.B) + B.C =
A + B.C
Converting frequencies into probabilities

Event B occurs while event A is taking place


Consequence Modelling
Vaporization if liquid releases

Vv = mass% of liquid vaporized


T2 = final temperature oC (if it is not known
boiling point of liquid at atmospheric pressure)
Dry adiabatic temperature lapse
The rate of decrease of temperature with height of a parcel
of dry air lifted by reversal adiabatic process.
The lapse rate is g/Cpd

g = gravitational acceleration
Cpd = specific heat of dry air at constant pressure
The value is approximately 9.8 oC/km

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