Bachelor of Science in Civil Engineering 1

CE 221-ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS

MODULE 2: PROBABILITY

INTRODUCTION

Probability provides information about the likelihood that something will happen.
Meteorologists, for instance, use weather patterns to predict the probability of rain. In
epidemiology, probability theory is used to understand the relationship between
exposures and the risk of health effects.

OBJECTIVES

 Know the applications of Probability.

 Know the application of Counting Rules.

DISCUSSION PROPER

PROBABILITY

Probability refers to the study of randomness and uncertainty of an outcome. The theory
of probability provides methods that will permit us to quantify the chances, or likelihood,
associated with various outcomes of an event.

Probability of an event

The objective of probability is to assign to each event A a number P(A), called the
probability of the event A , which will give a precise measure of the chance that A will
happen.
The probability of an event A is the number of the outcomes favorable to A to the
number of outcomes. If nA is the number of outcomes favorable to event A and N is the
total number of outcomes, the number of outcomes in a sample space, thus
P(A) = nA/N

Properties of Probability
1. Positiveness 0≤P(A) ≤ 1
2. Certainty P(S) = 1, the probability of a sure event

Sample space of an experiment

An experiment is any action or process that generates data. The set of all possible
outcomes of an experiment is the sample space, S. Each outcome is a sample space called
an element or a sample point.

Methods of Describing a Sample Space

1. If the sample space has a finite number of sample points, we may describe the set by
listing the elements separated by commas and enclosed in brackets.

2. If the sample space has large or infinite number of sample points, describe the set by a
statement or rule.

Example 1: If a die is rolled, the sample space S is given by

S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}

Prepared by: Engr. Jerico P. Fiel

 Bachelor of Science in Civil Engineering 2

Example 2: If two coins are tossed, the sample space S is given by

S = {HH,HT,TH,TT} , where H = head and T = tail.

Example 3: If two dice are rolled, the sample space S is given by

S={(1,1),(1,2),(1,3),(1,4),(1,5),(1,6),(2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(2,4),(2,5),(2,6),(3,1),(3,2),(3,3),(3,4),
(3,5),(3,6),(4,1),(4,2),(4,3),(4,4),(4,5),(4,6),(5,1),(5,2),(5,3),(5,4),(5,5),(5,6),(6,1),(6,2),
(6,3),(6,4),(6,5),(6,6)}

Counting Rules Useful in Probability

The Fundamental Counting Principle (also called the counting rule) is a way to figure out
the number of outcomes in a probability problem. Basically, you multiply the events
together to get the total number of outcomes.

Counting techniques

If the number of possible outcomes in an experiment is quite large, the effort of

constructing the list of outcomes becomes prohibitive. By using some counting rules, it is
possible to determine the number of outcomes without listing.

PERMUTATION

A permutation is an arrangement of all or part of a group of objects or elements. Order is

an important aspect of permutation.

1. The number of permutation of n distinct objects taken n at a time is

𝑃 = 𝑛!

2. The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken r at a time is

𝑛!
𝑃 = 𝑛𝑃𝑟 =
(𝑛 − 𝑟 )!

3. The number of permutations of n objects of which n1 are identical, n2 are identical …

n or m are identical is
𝑛!
𝑃=
𝑛1 ! 𝑛2 ! … 𝑛𝑚!

4. The number of permutations of n objects of which n distinct objects are arrange in a

circle is
𝑃 = (𝑛 − 1)!

COMBINATION

Combination is the number of ways of selecting r objects from n without regard to

order.
The number of combinations of n objects taken r at a time is
𝑛!
𝑛𝐶𝑟 =
𝑟! (𝑛 − 𝑟)!

Example 4: How many numbers can be formed using all the digits 6, 7, 8, and 9?

Solution: To form different numbers, arrange all the 4 digits and the arrangements are
the number of numbers formed.

Prepared by: Engr. Jerico P. Fiel

 Bachelor of Science in Civil Engineering 3

P=4! = 24 numbers

Example 5: How many distinct permutations are there in the word MILLENNIUM?

Solution: There are 2M’s, 2L’s, 2I’s, 2N’s

P= 10!/2!x2!x2!x2! = 226, 800 ways

Example 6: In how many ways can 4 letters a,b,c and d be arranged in a circle?

Solution:

Using manual counting (a,b,d,c),(a,c,b,d),(a,d,b,c),(a,c,d,b),(a,d,c,b),(a,b,c,d) = 6 ways

Using Permutation Formula, P= (4-1)! = 3! = 6 ways

Example 7: From a box containing 4 defective and 5 non defective items, how many
sample of size 3 are possible.

A. With no restrictions
B. With 1 defective and 2 non defective item
C. Probability of success for letter B

Solution:

a) n = number of ways of selecting 3 from 9

n = 9C3 =9!/(3!(9-3)!) = 9!/3!6! = 84 samples
b) n = Number of samples of 1 defective and 2 non defective
n1, r1 = no. of ways of selecting 1 defective from 4 defective samples
n2, r2 = no. of ways of selecting 2 non defective from 5 non defective samples
n = 4C1 x 5C2 = 4!/1!3! x 5!/2!3!= 4(10) = 40 samples
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠 40 10
c) 𝑃 = 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 = 84 = 21

Example 8: In the experiment of examining 3 bulbs, find the probability of the following
events:
a.) exactly 2 bulbs are defective
b.) at least 2 bulbs are defective

Solution:
The sample space for this experiment is
S ={DDD, DDN, DND, DNN, NDD, NDN, NND, NNN}

a.) A = the event that exactly two bulbs are defective.

A = {DDN, DND, NDD}
nA=3
N=8
P(A)=3/8 = 0.375x100 = 37.5%

b.) B = {DDD, DDN, DND, NDD}

nB=4
P(B)=4/8=1/2 x 100 = 50% the event at least two bulbs are defective

Prepared by: Engr. Jerico P. Fiel

 Bachelor of Science in Civil Engineering 4

Example 9: In a card game, if a hand is holding 5 cards, find the probability that there
will be:
a. 3 aces
b. 4 hearts and 1 diamond

Solution:

a.) A = the event of having 3 aces and 2 of any kind other than aces.
4C3 = number of ways of having 3 aces
48C2 = number of ways of having 2 of any kind
nA = 4C3 x 48C2 = 4,512
N = 52C5 = 2,598,960
P(A) = (4,512)/(2,598,960) = 94/54,145

b.) B = the event holding 4 hearts and 1 diamond

nB = 13C4 x 13C1 = 9,295
P(B) = (9,295)/(2,598,960) = 143/39,984

Example 10: A bag contains eight red balls, four green balls and eight yellow balls. A ball
is drawn at random from the bag, and it is not a red ball. What is the probability that it
is a green ball?

Solution:

8 red balls (excluded because red ball is not part of the balls to be drawn)
4 green balls
8 yellow balls

Let A = the event of having a green ball out of 12 balls

nA = 4C1 = no.of ways of selecting or picking a green ball.
N = 12C1 =12
P(A) = 4C1/12C1 = 1/6 or 0.333

SUMMARY

The concept of probability is of great importance in everyday life. Statistical analysis is

based on this valuable concept. In fact the role played by probability in modern science
is that of a substitute for certainty.

REFERENCES

Books:
1. Robinson, E. L. (2016). Data Analysis for Scientists and Engineers. Princeton University
Press.

Online
2. https://www.scribbr.co.uk/research-methods/guide-to-experimental-design/

ISUI-CvE-Mod
Revision: 02
Effectivity: August 1, 2020

Prepared by: Engr. Jerico P. Fiel