HR Forecasting Assignment
I. OBJECTIVES:
To practice forecasting an organization's human resource needs.
To familiarize with some of the factors which affect an organization's future human resource needs (growth,
automation, and turnover).
To familiarize with the complexities involved in making human resource forecasts.
To point out that all human resource forecasting is based on assumptions and that these assumptions are critical to
the accuracy of the forecast. Incorrect assumptions lead to erroneous forecasts.
II. INSTRUCTIONS:
You have been given the assignment of forecasting human resource needs of the National Bank and Trust Company
which employs approximately 1100 people. The bank currently has 50 branch offices located through the greater
Vancouver area each of which employs approximately 14 individuals. The bank expects to add 38 branches during
the next three years. Branches within the bank differ considerably in size, so the figures represent averages.
During the past month, the bank has placed an order for 30 automated teller machines to be placed in its former bran
ch offices. These machines are scheduled to be in operation December 31,
one year from now. The bank has found that for each new machine purchased, one less teller is
needed, on average. A breakdown of the bank's current staffing is shown in Table: present staffing.
The bank has asked you to perform three human resource forecasting tasks. First, based
on the assumptions given below, you are required to determine employee turnover for the main office, the
former branches, and the new branches. Your boss would like to know this information for each of
the next three years and for each of the major personnel categories (i.e., supervisors,
tellers/clerical, and main office). Your job is to complete Table 1.
Second, your boss would like to know the number of new employees the bank will need to hire for each major person
nel Category for each of the next three years. Your job is to complete Table 2.
Table: Present Staffing
Total Employees 1100
No. of Branches 50
Supervisors per Branch 4
No. of Supervisors 200
Tellers per Branch 10
Number of Tellers 500
Branch Employees 700
Main Office Employees 400
Table 1
Turnover
Employee Category Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Old Branch Supervisors
Old Branch Tellers
Main Office
New Branch
Supervisors
New Branch Tellers
Totals
Table 2
Number of Employees To Be Hired
Employee Category Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Old Branch Supervisors
Old Branch Tellers
Main Office
New Branch
Supervisors
New Branch Tellers
Totals
Table 3
Year End Employment
Employee Category Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Old Branch Supervisors
Old Branch Tellers
Main Office
New Branch
Supervisors
New Branch Tellers
Totals
Finally, your boss would like to know the total number of employees who will be working for the bank as
of the end of each of the next three years. Your job is to complete Table 3. In order to complete your assignment,
your boss has told you to make a number of assumptions. They are:
A. You are making all projections in December for subsequent years ending December 31.
B. With regard to former branches, assume
• The 50 former branches employ four supervisors and ten clerical personnel/ tellers each.
• On December 31 (one year hence), 30 tellers are placed in operation and replace 30 tellers.
• The bank does not terminate any employees because of the new teller machines. Rather,
as tellers quit throughout the year, 30 are not replaced.
• Turnover is 30 percent for tellers/clerical personnel, and 20 percent for supervisors.
C. With regard to new branches, assume
• New branches are added as follows: 10 in Year 1, 12 in Year 2, and 16 in Year 3.
• Each new branch employs 14 individuals (4 supervisors and 10 tellers/ clerical)
• New branches are added evenly throughout the year. Thus, for the purpose of calculating turnover, on
average, there are 5 new branches in Year 3 (50% 10); 16 in Year 2 [10 in Year 1 plus (50% 12)]; and 30 in
Year 3 [22 plus 8 (50%16)].
4. Turnover is 30 percent for tellers/clerical personnel, and 20 percent for supervisors.
D. With regard to main office, assume that turnover will be 10% per year.
