TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

General Information Name Sector Current Price Price Change Previous Close Average Volume Nse Code Bse Code Part of Index BSE Part of Index NSE Reliance Power Ltd. POWER 84.85 1.40 / 1.68% 83.45 2787240.0 RPOWER 532939 BSE 100 Nifty 50

The lowest being 76.75 till now and the highest being 192.8 in one year

Performance of Reliance Power Ltd. in terms of appreciation Period Period Old Price Price Gain Gain in % One Week 84.75 0.10 0.12 Two Week 85.95 -1.10 -1.28 One Month 111.95 -27.10 -24.21 Three Month 116.55 -31.70 -27.20 Six Month 110.35 -25.50 -23.11 One Year 152.65 -67.80 -44.42

TRENDLINE
There are two basic kinds of trends: An Up Trend where prices are generally increasing, i.e. higher low prices. Up trend is characterized by rising support level A Down Trend where prices are generally decreasing, i.e. lower high prices. It is characterized by lower resistance level.

And also we have a Trading Range where the price tends to oscillate in a range of major support and resistance levels

DOWNWARD TREND

TRADING RANGE

Seeing the last year prices of Reliance Power there has been a down fall from a price of 190 to 76 with the trading range in between 110-130 from May 2011 till August 2011 then after that a steep fall was seen due to global economy impact. Since It s following a downward trend it is an indication to buy the stock because after settling of economy prices will rise again. The stock is in short term downward trend.

CERTAIN PATTERNS
The candle stick charts were considered for the past week time .

THREE BLACK CROWS PATTERN

WHAT IS THREE BLACK CROWS ? A bearish candlestick pattern that is used to predict the reversal of the current uptrend. This pattern consists of three consecutive long-bodied candlesticks that have closed lower than the previous day with each session's open occurring within the body of the previous candle. Three black crows Candlestick pattern was formed by Reliance Power Ltd. on 26/08/2011 with rise in volume. Prior to pattern formation this share was in downtrend. Three black crows Candlestick pattern was formed by Reliance Power Ltd. on 18/08/2011 Prior to pattern formation this share was in downtrend. Hence indicating unusually high volumes and short term downward trend for this stock.

WHAT IS A DOUBLE BOTTOM PATTERN ? A double bottom occurs when prices form two distinct lows on a chart. A double bottom is only complete, however, when prices rise above the high end of the point that formed the second low. The double bottom is a reversal pattern of a downward trend in a stock's price. The double bottom marks a downtrend in the process of becoming an uptrend

As we can see above that Double Bottom Pattern for Equity Reliance Power Ltd. was formed on 30/08/2011 with first bottom at price of 82.9 on 19/08/2011 , and second bottom was formed on 26/08/2011 with closing price of 77.95. Midpoint was formed on 23/08/2011 with a price of 84.75.Hence a little bit upward trend is indicated in the next coming week with more towards the downward side only as it is a short term downward trend.

MOVING AVERAGE TECHNICAL INDICATOR

Simple Moving Average is calculated for 50 days moving average and 200 days moving average in the above chart .Grey line indicates 50 day moving average and Blue Line indicates 200 day moving average. A buy signal is given when the shorter term moving average crosses above the longer term moving averages .A sell signal occurs when the longer term moving average crosses above the shorter-term moving average.
Moving Average of Reliance Power Ltd. Current Price Three Days Five Days Ten Days Fifteen Days Twenty Two Days Thirty Days Fifty Days Hundred Days Two Hundred Days 84.85 82.0833 82.29 83.33 85.49 92.5864 98.5667 105.199 112.599 126.103

SELL

BUY

SELL

The Moving Average Indicator also implies a downward trend in Reliance Power which is a short term as in 50 days moving average line the line is in alignment with the stock prices

RELATIVE STRENGTH INDICATOR

Provides an indication of overbought and oversold conditions by measuring the relative changes between higher and lower closing prices. It takes a single parameter, the number of time periods to use in the calculation. An RSI above 70% is considered overbought and Below 30% is considered oversold.

If the RSI makes a double top formation, with the first top above 70% and the second top below the first, you get a sell signal when the RSI falls below the level of the dip. Conversely, a double bottom at or below 30% (with the first low below 30% and the second at or above the same level) gives you a buy signal when the RSI breaks above the previous peak.

As per Relative Strength Indicator (RSI), Reliance Power Ltd. was in over sold level. However, recent price moves on 30/08/2011 indicates trend reversal and stock may rise in near future. This stock is in short term down trend.
Technical Indicator Name Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14 day) Value 39.2354

SLOW STOCHASTIC INDICATOR

It is a banded oscillator. It compares where a security s price closed relative to its price range over a given time period. It has a %D and %K line. %D is a moving average of %K line.The specific levels to watch out for are the 20 and 80 levels.

Buy when %K line rises above %D line. Sell when %K line goes below %D line. As per slow stochastic indicator, Reliance Power Ltd. was in over sold level. However, recent price moves on 30/08/2011 indicates trend reversal and stock may rise in near future. This stock is in short term down trend.

More Technical Indicator Name Stochastic D Fast Stochastic K Fast Stochastic D Slow Value 30.436 47.2303 24.0199

BOLLINGER BANDS INDICATOR

Bollinger Bands are based on a moving average of the closing price. They are two standard deviations above and below the moving average. When markets are volatile, band is wider while they contract during calmer periods

A buy signal is given when the stock price closes below the lower band, and a sell signal is given when the stock price closes above the upper band. In the above case of Reliance Power Limited in April 2011 it went above the band where in selling was indicated and recently in the beginning of August Month a buying was indicated .Also as the band is widening it shows that the volatility is increasing though it is short term downward trend so this stock should be bought as prices would increase in near future.

Technical Indicator Name Bollinger Band Up Bollinger Band Middle Bollinger Band Low Value 110.835 90.63 70.4248

MACD INDICATOR
y y y MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) is a technical analysis indicator. The MACD is a computation of the difference between two exponential moving averages (EMAs) of closing prices. This difference is charted over time, alongside a moving average of the difference. The divergence between the two is shown as a histogram or bar graph.

When this signal line goes from negative to positive, a buy signal is generated.When the signal line goes from positive to negative, a sell signal is generated. For Reliance Power Ltd. , MACD line has crossed over Signal line on 30/08/2011 . This may mean that the share may be trending. It could be a buying opportunity if other indicators are supporting the move. This stock is in short term down trend. Stock has fallen by more than 15% in last One Month.. Stock has fallen by more than 25% in last three Month.. Stock has jumped by more than 10% in last two weeks.
MACD For Reliance Power Ltd. MACD (26d ,12d) Signal Line Macd Above Signal Line Macd/Signal Line trend days Macd Above Zero Line Macd/Zero Line trend days -7.36341 -7.49133 true 1 false 30

CONCLUSION
Indicator/Pattern Trendline Three Black Crows Pattern Double Bottom Pattern Moving Average Technical Indicator Relative Strength Indicator Slow Stochastic Indicator Bollinger Bands Indicator MACD Indicator Uptrend Downtrend YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES Buy signal YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES Sell signal

Reliance Power Ltd. share price is down along with rise in volume on 26/08/2011 . This signal's downward trend. Traders may exit position but this stock is in short term down trend. And after all the technical analysis we conclude that Reliance Power stock is in short tern downward trend so it should be bought as in near future prices will increase .