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Statistics Notes 3

The document provides advanced-level notes on probability, defining it as a measure of the likelihood of an event occurring, with values ranging from 0 to 1. It covers key concepts such as sample space, events, mutually exclusive and independent events, as well as probability rules including addition and multiplication rules, conditional probability, and Bayes' Theorem. Additionally, it discusses discrete and continuous probability distributions and includes solved examples for practical understanding.

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dexterbrains55
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7 views3 pages

Statistics Notes 3

The document provides advanced-level notes on probability, defining it as a measure of the likelihood of an event occurring, with values ranging from 0 to 1. It covers key concepts such as sample space, events, mutually exclusive and independent events, as well as probability rules including addition and multiplication rules, conditional probability, and Bayes' Theorem. Additionally, it discusses discrete and continuous probability distributions and includes solved examples for practical understanding.

Uploaded by

dexterbrains55
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Statistics notes

Probability: Advanced-Level Notes

1. Definition of Probability

Probability is a measure of the likelihood that an event will occur. It ranges from 0 to 1, where:

• 0 indicates the event is sure NOT to occur

• 1 indicates certainty the event will occur

The formula for the probability of an event AA is:


N𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠

2. Types of Probability

3. Key Concepts

a. Sample Space (S)

The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.

b. Event (AA)

A subset of the sample space. Events can be:

• Simple event: Contains a single outcome.

• Compound event: Contains multiple outcomes.

c. Complement of an Event (Ac )

The set of all outcomes not in 𝐴:

𝑃(Ac ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴)
d. Mutually Exclusive Events

two events A and B are said to be mutually exclusive if the occurrence of one leads to the none
occurrence of the other.

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0
e. Independent Events

Events where the occurrence of one does not affect the other:

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) ⋅ 𝑃(𝐵)


4. Probability Rules

a. Addition Rule

For events A and B:

• If A and B are mutually exclusive:

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵)


• If A and B are not mutually exclusive:

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)


b. Multiplication Rule

• For independent events:

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) ⋅ 𝑃(𝐵)

• For dependent events:

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) ⋅ 𝑃(𝐵 ∣ 𝐴)

5. Conditional Probability

The probability of AA given BB:


𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴 ∣ 𝐵) = (𝑖𝑓 𝑃(𝐵) > 0)
𝑃(𝐵)

6. Bayes' Theorem

Used to find the probability of AA given BB, based on prior knowledge:

𝑃(𝐴 ∣ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵 ∣ 𝐴) ⋅ 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵)𝑃(𝐴|𝐵)

7. Probability Distributions

a. Discrete Distributions

E.g., Binomial, Poisson.

b. Continuous Distributions

E.g., Normal, Exponential.


8. Solved Examples

Example 1: A bag contains 5 red balls and 3 blue balls. What is the probability of drawing a red ball?

𝑃(𝑅𝑒𝑑) = 5/8 = 0.625


Example 2: Two dice are rolled. What is the probability of getting a sum of 7?

Sample space: 3636 outcomes. Favorable outcomes: (1,6),(2,5),(3,4),(4,3),(5,2),(6,1)(1,6), (2,5), (3,4),


(4,3), (5,2), (6,1) =6= 6.

𝑃(𝑆𝑢𝑚 7) = 6/36 = 0.167

Let me know if you need more examples or explanations!

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