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Probability Guide Formatted

Probability is a mathematical field that measures the likelihood of events, ranging from 0 to 1. It includes various types such as classical, empirical, subjective, and axiomatic probability, along with key rules like the addition and multiplication rules. Applications of probability span multiple fields including statistics, machine learning, and finance.

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8 views2 pages

Probability Guide Formatted

Probability is a mathematical field that measures the likelihood of events, ranging from 0 to 1. It includes various types such as classical, empirical, subjective, and axiomatic probability, along with key rules like the addition and multiplication rules. Applications of probability span multiple fields including statistics, machine learning, and finance.

Uploaded by

ruacheloim0
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Probability – Comprehensive Guide

1. What Is Probability?
Probability is the branch of mathematics concerned with measuring the likelihood of events occurring.
- It quantifies uncertainty.
- It ranges from 0 (impossible event) to 1 (certain event).

Formula for Classical Probability:


P(E) = (Number of favorable outcomes) / (Total number of possible outcomes)

2. Types of Probability
a) Classical Probability Based on equally likely outcomes.
b) Empirical (Experimental) Probability Based on observation/data.
c) Subjective Probability Based on personal belief.
d) Axiomatic Probability Based on Kolmogorovs axioms using set theory.

3. Probability Terminology
- Sample Space (S): All possible outcomes
- Event (E): A subset of the sample space
- Mutually Exclusive: Cannot happen together
- Independent Events: Dont affect each others outcomes
- Complementary Events: Events that cover all possibilities

4. Key Probability Rules


a) Addition Rule:
- For mutually exclusive events: P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B)
- For non-mutually exclusive events: P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A n B)

b) Multiplication Rule:
- For independent events: P(A n B) = P(A) x P(B)
- For dependent events: P(A n B) = P(A) x P(B|A)

c) Complement Rule: P(A') = 1 P(A)

5. Conditional Probability
P(A|B) = P(A n B) / P(B)
The probability of A occurring given that B has occurred.

6. Bayes Theorem
P(A|B) = [P(B|A) x P(A)] / P(B)
Used in AI, medical diagnosis, decision-making, etc.
9. Random Variables
A random variable assigns a number to each outcome.
- Discrete: Countable outcomes.
- Continuous: Infinite values.

14. Common Probability Mistakes


- Gamblers fallacy: Believing past events influence future outcomes.
- Misinterpreting independence.
- Confusing conditional probability.

15. Applications of Probability


- Statistics, Machine Learning, Psychology, Finance, AI, etc.

Summary Chart

Concept Formula
Classical Probability P(E) = favorable / total
Complement P(A') = 1 - P(A)
Conditional P(A|B) = P(A n B) / P(B)
Bayes' Theorem P(A|B) = (P(B|A) x P(A)) / P(B)
Independent Events P(A n B) = P(A) x P(B)
Addition Rule P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A n B)

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