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SV - DCF Analysis - Template

The document provides a comprehensive financial analysis for ValueCo Corporation, focusing on discounted cash flow, sensitivity analysis, and working capital projections. It includes various assumptions for sales growth, costs, and capital expenditures, with historical data and projections for future fiscal years. Key metrics such as enterprise value, implied equity value, and share price calculations are also presented, although many figures remain unspecified or are marked as zero.
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
40 views19 pages

SV - DCF Analysis - Template

The document provides a comprehensive financial analysis for ValueCo Corporation, focusing on discounted cash flow, sensitivity analysis, and working capital projections. It includes various assumptions for sales growth, costs, and capital expenditures, with historical data and projections for future fiscal years. Key metrics such as enterprise value, implied equity value, and share price calculations are also presented, although many figures remain unspecified or are marked as zero.
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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ValueCo Corporation

Discounted Cash Flow Analysis


($ in millions, fiscal year ending December 31)
Operating Scenario 1
Mid-Year Convention Y Historical Period CAGR
2005 2006 2007 ('05 - '07) 2008
Sales - - - - -
% growth NA - - -
COGS - - - -
Gross Profit - - - - -
% margin - - - -
SG&A - - - -
EBITDA - - - - -
% margin - - - -
Depreciation & Amortization - - - -
EBIT - - - - -
% margin - - - -
Taxes - - - -
EBIAT - - - - -
Plus: Depreciation & Amortization - - - -
Less: Capital Expenditures - - - -
Less: Increase in Net Working Capital
Unlevered Free Cash Flow
WACC -%
Discount Period
Discount Factor
Present Value of Free Cash Flow

Enterprise Value Implied Equity Value and Share Price


Cumulative Present Value of FCF - Enterprise Value
Less: Total Debt
Terminal Value Less: Preferred Securities
Terminal Year EBITDA (2013E) - Less: Noncontrolling Interest
Exit Multiple -x Plus: Cash and Cash Equivalents
Terminal Value -
Discount Factor 1.00 Implied Equity Value
Present Value of Terminal Value -
% of Enterprise Value -% Implied Share Price

Enterprise Value - Implied Share Price

Enterprise Value
Exit Multiple
0.0 -1.0x -0.5x 0.0x 0.5x 1.0x
-1.0% 0 0 0 0 0
-0.5% 0 0 0 0 0
WACC

WACC
0.0% 0 0 $0 0 0
0.5% 0 0 0 0 0
1.0% 0 0 0 0 0

Assumptions
Sales (% growth) NA -% -% -%
COGS (% sales) -% -% -% -%
SG&A (% sales) -% -% -% -%
Depreciation & Amortization (% sales) -% -% -% -%
Capital Expenditures (% sales) -% -% -% -%
Tax Rate -% -% -% -%
Working Capital (% sales)

ValueCo Corporation
Sensitivity Analysis
($ in millions)
Enterprise Value
Exit Multiple
0.0 -1.0x -0.5x 0.0x 0.5x 1.0x
-1.0% 0 0 0 0 0
-0.5% 0 0 0 0 0
WACC

WACC
0.0% 0 0 $0 0 0
0.5% 0 0 0 0 0
1.0% 0 0 0 0 0

Implied Share Price


Exit Multiple
NA -1.0x -0.5x 0.0x 0.5x 1.0x
-1.0%
-0.5%
WACC

WACC
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%

Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate


Exit Multiple
-% -1.0x -0.5x 0.0x 0.5x 1.0x
-1.0%
-0.5%
WACC

WACC
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%

Calculation of Implied Share Price


Enterprise Value -
Less: Total Debt -
Less: Preferred Securities -
Less: Noncontrolling Interest -
Plus: Cash and Cash Equivalents -
Implied Equity Value -

Options/Warrants
Number of Exercise In-the-Money
Tranche Shares Price Shares Proceeds
Options 1 - - - -
Options 2 - - - -
Options 3 - - - -
Options 4 - - - -
Options 5 - - - -
Total - - -

Basic Shares Outstanding -


Plus: Shares from In-the-Money Options -
Less: Shares Repurchased -
Net New Shares from Options -
Plus: Shares from Convertible Securities -
Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding -

Implied Share Price -


Operating Scenario Base

Projection Period CAGR


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 ('08 - '13)
- - - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -

0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5


1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
- - - - -

d Share Price Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate


- Terminal Year Free Cash Flow (2013E) -
- WACC -
- Terminal Value -
-
- Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate -%
- Implied EV/EBITDA
Enterprise Value -
- LTM 9/30/2008 EBITDA -

NA Implied EV/EBITDA -x

Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate


Exit Multiple
-% -1.0x -0.5x 0.0x 0.5x 1.0x
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%

-% -% -% -% -%
-% -% -% -% -%
-% -% -% -% -%
-% -% -% -% -%
-% -% -% -% -%
-% -% -% -% -%
-% -% -% -% -%
Implied Equity Value
Exit Multiple
0.0 -1.0x -0.5x 0.0x 0.5x 1.0x
-1.0% 0 0 0 0 0
-0.5% 0 0 0 0 0
0.0% 0 0 $0 0 0
0.5% 0 0 0 0 0
1.0% 0 0 0 0 0

PV of Terminal Value as % of Enterprise Value


Exit Multiple
-% -1.0x -0.5x 0.0x 0.5x 1.0x
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%

Implied Enterprise Value / LTM EBITDA


Exit Multiple
-x -1.0x -0.5x 0.0x 0.5x 1.0x
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
ValueCo Corporation
Working Capital Projections
($ in millions)

Historical Period Projection Period


2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Sales - - - - - - -
Cost of Goods Sold - - - - - - -

Current Assets
Accounts Receivable - - - - - - -
Inventories - - - - - - -
Prepaid Expenses and Other - - - - - - -
Total Current Assets - - - - - - -

Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable - - - - - - -
Accrued Liabilities - - - - - - -
Other Current Liabilities - - - - - - -
Total Current Liabilities - - - - - - -

Net Working Capital - - - - - - -


% sales - - - - - - -

(Increase) / Decrease in NWC - - - - - -

Assumptions
Days Sales Outstanding - - - - - - -
Days Inventory Held - - - - - - -
Prepaids and Other CA (% of sales) -% -% -% -% -% -% -%

Days Payable Outstanding - - - - - - -


Accrued Liabilities (% of sales) -% -% -% -% -% -% -%
Other Current Liabilities (% of sales) -% -% -% -% -% -% -%
ction Period
2012 2013
- -
- -

- -
- -
- -
- -

- -
- -
- -
- -

- -
- -

- -

- -
- -
-% -%

- -
-% -%
-% -%
ValueCo Corporation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital Analysis
($ in millions)

WACC Calculation Comparable Companies Unlevered Beta


Target Capital Structure Predicted Market
Debt-to-Total Capitalization -% Company Levered Beta(4) Value of Debt
Equity-to-Total Capitalization 100.0% CompCo1 - -
CompCo2 - -
CompCo3 - -
Cost of Debt CompCo4 - -
Cost of Debt -% CompCo5 - -
Tax Rate -%
After-tax Cost of Debt -% Mean -
Median -

Cost of Equity ValueCo Relevered Beta


Risk-free Rate(1) -%
Market Risk Premium(2) -%
Levered Beta -
Size Premium(3) -% Relevered Beta
Cost of Equity -%
WACC Sensitivity Analysis

Debt-to-Total Capitalization
Pre-tax C
WACC -% 0.0 -1.0%
-20.0% 0.2%
-10.0% 0.1%
0.0% 0.0%
10.0% -0.1%
20.0% -0.2%

(1) Interpolated yield on 20-year U.S. Treasury


(2) Obtained from Ibbotson SBBI Valuation Yearbook
(3) Low-Cap Decile size premium based on market capitalization, per Ibbotson
(4) Sourced from Barra
Market Debt/ Marginal Unlevered
Value of Equity Equity Tax Rate Beta
- -% -% -
- -% -% -
- -% -% -
- -% -% -
- -% -% -

-% -
-% -

Mean Target Target


Unlevered Debt/ Marginal Relevered
Beta Equity Tax Rate Beta
- -% -% -

Pre-tax Cost of Debt


-0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0%
0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2%
0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -0.1%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
-0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
-0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2%
`
Assumptions Page 1 - Income Statement and Cash Flow Statement

Projection Period
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Income Statement Assumptions


Sales (% growth) -% -% -% -% -% -
Base 1 -% -% -% -% -% -
Management 2 -% -% -% -% -% -
Upside 3 -% -% -% -% -% -
Downside 1 4 -% -% -% -% -% -
Downside 2 5 -% -% -% -% -% -

Cost of Goods Sold (% sales) -% -% -% -% -% -


Base 1 -% -% -% -% -% -
Management 2 -% -% -% -% -% -
Upside 3 -% -% -% -% -% -
Downside 1 4 -% -% -% -% -% -
Downside 2 5 -% -% -% -% -% -

SG&A (% sales) -% -% -% -% -% -
Base 1 -% -% -% -% -% -
Management 2 -% -% -% -% -% -
Upside 3 -% -% -% -% -% -
Downside 1 4 -% -% -% -% -% -
Downside 2 5 -% -% -% -% -% -

Depreciation & Amortization (% sales) -% -% -% -% -% -


Base 1 -% -% -% -% -% -
Management 2 -% -% -% -% -% -
Upside 3 -% -% -% -% -% -
Downside 1 4 -% -% -% -% -% -
Downside 2 5 -% -% -% -% -% -

Cash Flow Statement Assumptions


Capital Expenditures (% of sales) -% -% -% -% -% -
Base 1 -% -% -% -% -% -
Management 2 -% -% -% -% -% -
Upside 3 -% -% -% -% -% -
Downside 1 4 -% -% -% -% -% -
Downside 2 5 -% -% -% -% -% -
eriod
Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
2015 2016 2017 2018

- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -

- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -

- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -

- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -

- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
Assumptions Page 2 - Balance Sheet

Projection Period
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Current Assets
Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) - - - - - -
Base 1 - - - - - -
Management 2 - - - - - -
Upside 3 - - - - - -
Downside 1 4 - - - - - -
Downside 2 5 - - - - - -

Days Inventory Held (DIH) - - - - - -


Base 1 - - - - - -
Management 2 - - - - - -
Upside 3 - - - - - -
Downside 1 4 - - - - - -
Downside 2 5 - - - - - -

Prepaid and Other Current Assets (% of sales) -% -% -% -% -% -


Base 1 -% -% -% -% -% -
Management 2 -% -% -% -% -% -
Upside 3 -% -% -% -% -% -
Downside 1 4 -% -% -% -% -% -
Downside 2 5 -% -% -% -% -% -

Current Liabilities
Days Payable Outstanding (DPO) - - - - - -
Base 1 - - - - - -
Management 2 - - - - - -
Upside 3 - - - - - -
Downside 1 4 - - - - - -
Downside 2 5 - - - - - -

Accrued Liabilities (% of sales) -% -% -% -% -% -


Base 1 -% -% -% -% -% -
Management 2 -% -% -% -% -% -
Upside 3 -% -% -% -% -% -
Downside 1 4 -% -% -% -% -% -
Downside 2 5 -% -% -% -% -% -

Other Current Liabilities (% of sales) -% -% -% -% -% -


Base 1 -% -% -% -% -% -
Management 2 -% -% -% -% -% -
Upside 3 -% -% -% -% -% -
Downside 1 4 -% -% -% -% -% -
Downside 2 5 -% -% -% -% -% -
eriod
Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
2015 2016 2017 2018

- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -

- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -

- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -

- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -

- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -

- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -

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