SET THEORY

A set is a collection of well-defined objects. The objects comprising the set are called elements.
If 𝑥 is an element of a set 𝐴, then we write 𝑥 ∈ 𝐴. If 𝑥 is not an element, then we write 𝑥  𝐴.
Subset: Let 𝐴 and 𝐵 be two sets. 𝐴 is said to be a subset of 𝐵, if 𝑥 ∈ 𝐴  𝑥 ∈ 𝐵 and is denoted
by 𝐴 ⊂ 𝐵.
Equality of sets: Two sets 𝐴 and 𝐵 are said to be equal if 𝐴 ⊂ 𝐵 and 𝐵 ⊂ 𝐴. We then write 𝐴 =
𝐵.
Universal set (𝑼): The universal set is the set of all objects under consideration.
Null set (𝝓): A set containing no elements is called a null set.
Singleton set: A set containing a single element is called a singleton set.

SET OPERATIONS:
Let 𝐴 and 𝐵 be two sets.
Union: The set of all elements which belong to set 𝐴 or to the set 𝐵 is called union of the sets
𝐴 and 𝐵. It is denoted by 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵. 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = {𝑥|𝑥 ∈ 𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝑥 ∈ 𝐵}.
Intersection: The set of all elements which belong to set 𝐴 and to the set 𝐵 is called intersection
of the sets 𝐴 and 𝐵, i.e., the set of elements common to both 𝐴 and 𝐵. It is denoted by 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵.
𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = {𝑥|𝑥 ∈ 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑥 ∈ 𝐵}. If 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝜙, then 𝐴 and 𝐵 are disjoint sets.
Complement: Let 𝐷 be a subset of 𝐴. Then the compliment of 𝐷 in 𝐴 is the set of all elements
of A which are not in D. It is denoted by 𝐷𝐶 or 𝐷̅ or 𝐷′. 𝐷′ = {𝑥|𝑥 ∈ 𝐴 𝑏𝑢𝑡 𝑥D}.
Difference: The difference 𝐴 – 𝐵 is defined as 𝐴 – 𝐵 = {𝑥 | 𝑥  𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑥  𝐵} = 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵
Set Identities:
1. 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝐵 ∩ 𝐴, 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝐵 ∪ 𝐴 (Commutative laws)
2. 𝐴 ∪ (𝐵 ∪ 𝐶) = (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) ∪ 𝐶, 𝐴 ∩ (𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) = (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) ∩ 𝐶 (Associative laws)
3. 𝐴 ∩ (𝐵 ∪ 𝐶) = (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) ∪ (𝐴 ∩ 𝐶), 𝐴 ∪ (𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) = (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) ∩ (𝐴 ∪ 𝐶)
(Distributive laws)
4. 𝐴 ∪ 𝐴 = 𝐴, 𝐴 ∩ 𝐴 = 𝐴 (Idempotent laws)
5. 𝐴 ∪ 𝑈 = 𝑈, 𝐴 ∩ 𝜙 = 𝜙 (Dominance laws)
6. 𝐴 ∪ 𝜙 = 𝐴, 𝐴 ∩ 𝑈 = 𝐴 (Identity laws)
7. 𝐴 ∩ 𝐴′ = 𝜙, 𝐴 ∪ 𝐴′ = 𝑈 (Complement laws)
8. (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)′ = 𝐴′ ∩ 𝐵′ , (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)′ = 𝐴′ ∪ 𝐵′ (De Morgan’s laws)
Cardinality: The number of elements in a set 𝐴 is called cardinality of 𝐴 and is denoted by 𝑛(𝐴).
1. 𝑛(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑛(𝐴) + 𝑛(𝐵) − 𝑛(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
2. 𝑛(𝐴 − 𝐵) = 𝑛(𝐴) − 𝑛(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
3. 𝑛(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶) = 𝑛(𝐴) + 𝑛(𝐵) + 𝑛(𝑐) − 𝑛(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) − 𝑛(𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) − 𝑛(𝐴 ∩ 𝐶) + 𝑛(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶)

Methods of Enumeration
1. Multiplication Principle: Suppose that a procedure, say procedure 𝐴 can be done in 𝑛
different ways and another procedure, say 𝐵 can be done in 𝑚 different ways. Also
 suppose that any way of doing 𝐴 can be followed by any way of doing 𝐵. Then, the
procedure consisting of ‘𝐴 𝑓𝑜𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑑 𝑏𝑦 𝐵’ can be performed in 𝑚𝑛 ways.
2. Addition Principle: The number ways in which either 𝐴 or 𝐵, but not both, can be
performed is 𝑚 + 𝑛.
3. Permutation (Arrangement of given objects; Order is important):
The number of permutations of 𝑛 distinct objects taken 𝑟 at a time is
𝑛 𝑛!
➢ 𝑃𝑟 = (𝑛−𝑟)!, if repetitions are not allowed
➢ 𝑛𝑟 , if repetitions are allowed
𝑛!
➢ , if out of 𝑛 objects, 𝑘1 are of one kind, 𝑘2 are of second kind, … , 𝑘𝑚 are
𝑘1 !𝑘2 !…𝑘𝑚 !
𝑡ℎ
of 𝑚 kind (𝑘1 + 𝑘2 + ⋯ + 𝑘𝑚 = 𝑛, ie all objects are taken)
➢ (𝑛 − 1)!, when arranged along a circle
(𝑛−1)!
➢ , when clockwise and anti-clockwise arrangements are indistinguishable.
2
4. Combination (Selection of objects; Order is not important):
𝑛𝑃 𝑛!
𝑛
➢ 𝐶𝑟 = 𝑟
= , if repetitions are not allowed.
𝑟! 𝑟!(𝑛−𝑟)!

𝑛+𝑟−1
➢ 𝐶𝑟 , if repetitions are allowed.

PROBABILITY THEORY
There are two types of experiments
I. Deterministic experiments
An experiment that has a single possible outcome which is known before the
experiment is conducted. Eg: Cooling water below 0𝑜 𝐶, it will freeze it; throwing a ball
in the sky, it will fall down
II. Random/probabilistic experiments
Random experiment is an experiment which may not result in the same outcome when
repeated under the same conditions. It is an experiment which does not have a unique
outcome. Eg: Tossing of a coin, rolling of a die.

Sample Space: The set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment.

Examples:
(i) In tossing of a coin: 𝑆 = {𝐻, 𝑇}
(ii) In tossing of two coins: 𝑆 = {𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇}
(iii) In tossing of two identical coins: 𝑆 = {𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇}
(iv) In rolling of a die: 𝑆 = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
If a sample space has finite number of elements, then it is called a finite sample space.
Otherwise, the sample space is said to be an infinite sample space.
Example for a infinite sample space:
Consider rolling of a die till a 5 appears: 𝑆 = {5, 15,25, . .65, 115, 125, … ,215,225, … . }

Event: An event is a subset of the sample space.

Null Event: An event, which does not contain any element, is called a null event or an impossible
event, denoted by 𝜙
Certain or sure Event: If the event contains all the elements of the sample space, then it is called
a certain event.
Elementary/simple event: An event which has only one outcome
Compound event: An event which has more than one outcome

Types of events
1. Equally likely outcomes: If all outcomes of a random experiment have equal chances of
occurrence, then the outcomes are said to be equally likely, i.e, none of them have a
greater chance of occurance than the other.
Eg: (i) In tossing of an unbiased coin, head and tail are equally likely.
(ii) In rolling of an honest die, all six faces are equally likely.

2. Mutually Exclusive Events: Two events 𝐴 and 𝐵 are said to be mutually exclusive if both
of them cannot occur simultaneously. i.e., if occurrence of one event prevents the
occurrence of the other, then the events are said to be mutually exclusive. 𝐴 and 𝐵 are
mutually exclusive if 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝜙
Eg: (i) In tossing of a coin head and tail are mutually exclusive
(ii) In rolling of a die all six faces are mutually exclusive

3. Exhaustive events: A set of events is exhaustive if one or the other of the events in the
set occurs whenever the experiment is conducted, i.e., the set of events exhaust all the
outcomes of the experiment. The union of exhaustive events is equal to the sample
space.
Eg: (i) In tossing of a coin, exhaustive cases = 2, exhaustive events = {𝐻}, {𝑇}
(ii) In tossing of 2 coins, exhaustive cases = 4, exhaustive events={𝐻𝐻}, {𝑇𝑇}, {𝐻𝑇} {𝑇𝐻}
(iii) In tossing 𝑛 coins, exhaustive cases = 2𝑛 .
(iv) In rolling of two dice, exhaustive cases = 36

4. Independent events: Two or more events are said to be independent if the happening or
non-happening of one event does not prevent the happening or non-happening of the
others, i.e., 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵).
Eg: While tossing a coin, getting a head and a tail are independent events
Favourable cases: An outcome 𝑥 is said to be favourable to an event 𝐴, if 𝑥 belongs to 𝐴. The
total number of outcomes favourable to 𝐴 is called favourable cases to 𝐴.
Eg: (i) In tossing of two coins, favourable cases for getting 2 heads is 1, for getting exactly one
head is 2 and for getting at least 2 heads is 1.
(ii) In drawing a card from a pack, there are 4 cases favouring a king, 2 cases favouring a red
queen and 26 cases favouring a black card.

Probability
Probability is a quantitative measure of chances of occurrence. There are 3 approaches to the
study of probability.
1. Classical approach
2. Statistical or empirical approach
3. Axiomatic approach

1. Classical Definition of Probability:

If an event 𝐴 can occur in 𝑚 different ways out of a total of 𝑛 ways all of which are equally
likely and mutually exclusive, then the probability of the event 𝐴 is given by
𝑚 𝐹𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠
𝑃(𝐴) = =
𝑛 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 (𝐸𝑥ℎ𝑎𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠)

NOTE:
(i) For a null set, 𝑚 = 0. Hence 𝑃(𝜙) = 0
(ii) For a sample space, 𝑚 = 𝑛. Hence 𝑃(𝑆) = 1
𝑚
(iii) 0 ≤ 𝑚 ≤ 𝑛. Hence, 0 ≤ ≤ 1, i.e., 0 ≤ 𝑃(𝐴) ≤ 1
𝑛
(iv) If 𝑚 outcomes are favourable to 𝐴, remaining 𝑛 – 𝑚 are favourable to𝐴′. Hence
𝑛−𝑚 𝑚
𝑃(𝐴′ ) = =1− = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴). i.e.,𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐴′ ) = 1
𝑛 𝑛

2. Statistical Definition of Probability:

If an experiment is repeated several times under essentially homogeneous and identical
conditions, then the limiting value of the ratio of the number of times the event occurs
 to the number of trials, as the number of trials become indefinitely large, is called the
𝑚
probability of that event,i.e. if an event 𝐴 occurs 𝑚 times in 𝑛 trials then 𝑃(𝐴) = lim
𝑛→∞ 𝑛

3. Axiomatic approach:
Consider a random experiment with sample space 𝑆. Associated with this random
experiment, may events be defined. With every event 𝐴, we associate a real number
𝑃(𝐴) called the probability of event 𝐴 satisfying the following axioms :
(i) 0 ≤ 𝑃(𝐴) ≤ 1
(ii) 𝑃(𝑆) = 1, 𝑆 being the sure event
(iii) For two mutually exclusive events 𝐴 and 𝐵, 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵)
(iv) If 𝐴1 , 𝐴2 , … , 𝐴𝑛 are pairwise mutually exclusive events, then
∞ ∞

𝑃 (⋃ 𝐴𝑖 ) = ∑ 𝑃(𝐴𝑖 )
𝑖=1 𝑖=1
These are called the axioms of probability

Theorems
1. If 𝜙 is the null event, then 𝑃(𝜙) = 0
2. If 𝐴̅ is the complementary event of 𝐴, then 𝑃(𝐴) = 1 − 𝑃 (𝐴̅).
3. If 𝐴 and 𝐵 are any two events, then 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
4. If 𝐴,𝐵 and 𝐶are any three events, then 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐶) −
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐶) + 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶)
5. If 𝐴 ⊂ 𝐵 then 𝑃(𝐴) ≤ 𝑃(𝐵)
6. Probability that exactly one of the event 𝐴 or 𝐵 occur, i.e., 𝑃((𝐴 ∩ 𝐵′ ) ∪ (𝐴′ ∩ 𝐵)) =
𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 2𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

Excercise
1
1. Let 𝐴, 𝐵 and 𝐶 be events such that 𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐶) = , 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝐵) =
4
1
0 and 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐶) = . Evaluate the probability that atleast one of the events 𝐴, 𝐵 and
8
𝐶 occurs.
3 3
2. If 𝑃(𝐴) = , 𝑃(𝐵) = , then show that
4 8
3
(i) 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) ≥
4
1 3
(ii) ≤ 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) ≤
8 8
3 5
(iii) ≤ 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵′) ≤
8 8
3. 10 persons in a room are wearing badges marked 1 to 10. Three persons are chosen at
random and asked to leave the room simultaneously. Their badge number is noted.
(i) What is the probability that the smallest badge number is 5?
(ii) What is the probability that the largest badge number is 5?
4. A pair of dice is rolled. What is the probability of getting
(i) a sum greater than 6?
(ii) a sum neither 5 nor 10?
5. There are 8 positive numbers and 6 negative numbers. 4 numbers are chosen at random
and multiplied. What is the probability that the product is a positive number?
6. A number is chosen between 1 and 50. What is the probability that it is divisible by 8 or
6?
7. An urn contains 5 red and 10 black balls. 8 of them are placed in another urn. What is the
chance that the latter urn then contains 2 red and 6 black balls?
8. A bag contains 8 white and 6 red balls. What is the probability of drawing two balls of the
same color?
9. The coefficient 𝑎, 𝑏, 𝑐 of the quadratic equation 𝑎𝑥 2 + 𝑏𝑥 + 𝑐 = 0 are determined by
throwing a die 3 times find the probability that
(i) Roots are real
(ii) Roots are complex.

10.Three group of children contain respectively 3 girls 1 boy, 2 girls 2 boys, 1 girl 3 boys. One
child is selected at random from each group. Show that the chance that the 3 selected
13
consist of 1 girl and 2 boys is .
32
11.A committee of 4 persons is to be appointed from 3 officers of production department, 4
officers from purchase department, 2 officers from the sales department and 1 charted
accountant. Find the probability that
(i) There must be one from each category.
(ii) It should have at least one from the purchase department.
(iii) The CA must be in the committee.
12.What is the probability that a randomly selected year contains 53 Sundays?
13.Each of 2 persons A and B tosses 3 fair coins. Find the probability that they get the same
number of heads.
14.A and B throw a dice alternatively till one of them gets a ‘6’ and wins the game. Find their
respective probabilities of winning if A starts first.
Solution: Let S denote the success (getting a ‘6’) and F denote the failure (not getting a ‘6’).
Thus, P(S) =1/6, P(F) =5/6
P(A wins in the first throw) = P(S) = 1/6
A gets the third throw, when the first throw by A and second throw by B result into failures.
Therefore, P(A wins in the 3rd throw) = P(FFS) = P(F)P(F)P(S)= (5/6)(5/6)(1/6)
P(A wins in the 5th throw) = P (FFFFS)= (5/6)(5/6) (5/6)(5/6)(1/6)
Hence, P(A wins) =1/6 + (5/6)(5/6)(1/6) + (5/6)(5/6) (5/6)(5/6)(1/6) + … = 6/11 (G.P infinite sum)
P(B wins) = 1 – P (A wins) = 1- (6/11)= 5/11.

15. A and B throw alternatively a pair of dice. A wins if he throws sum 6 before B throws
sum 7 and B wins the other way. If A begins, find his chances of winning the game.
16.Out of the digits 0,1,2,3,4 (without repetition) a five-digit number is formed. Find the
probability that the number formed is divisible by 4
17.Six people toss a fair coin one by one. The game is won by the player who throws head.
Find the probability of success of the 4th player.

Answers:
5
1.
8
2. Prove
1 1
3. (i) (ii)
12 20
7 29
4. (i) (ii)
12 36
505
5.
1001
6
6.
25
140
7.
429
43
8.
91
43 173
9. ,
216 216
13
10.
32
4 195
11. , , 0.4
35 210
1 2
12. and (leap year)
7 7
5
13.
16
14. Solution
30 31
15. For A: For B:
61 61
5
16.
16
4
17.
63
Conditional Probability
Let 𝐴 and 𝐵 be two events. The conditional probability of 𝐵 given 𝐴 is the probability of the
occurance of 𝐵 when it is known that the event 𝐴 has already occurred. It is denoted by
𝑃(𝐵|𝐴)
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) =
𝑃(𝐴)
NOTE:
(i) The probability of the happening of 𝐵 when nothing is known about the happening of
𝐴 is called unconditional probability of B and is denoted by 𝑃(𝐵)
(ii) If 𝐴 and 𝐵 are two independent events, then 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵), i.e.,
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵) =
𝑃(𝐴)
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵)
(iii) If 𝐴 and 𝐵 are two independent events of 𝑆 then prove that 𝐴 and B ̅ and A̅ and
̅, 𝐵 and A
B̅ are also independent.

Multiplicative theorem/Theorem of Compound probability

Let 𝐴 and 𝐵 be two events with respective probabilities 𝑃(𝐴) and 𝑃(𝐵). Let 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) be the
conditional probability of the occurrence of event 𝐵 given that event 𝐴 has already occurred.
Then, the probability of simultaneous occurence of 𝐴 and 𝐵 is
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴)
𝑃(𝐴𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴)
If they are independent, then 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵)

NOTE :
(i) If 𝐴1 , 𝐴2 , 𝐴3 , … , 𝐴𝑛 are 𝑛 independent events, then
𝑃(𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 ∩ 𝐴3 ∩ … ∩ 𝐴𝑛 ) = 𝑃(𝐴1 ) ∙ 𝑃(𝐴2 ) ∙ 𝑃(𝐴3 ) ∙ … ∙ 𝑃(𝐴𝑛 )
If they are dependent,
𝑃(𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 ∩ 𝐴3 ∩ … ∩ 𝐴𝑛 )
= 𝑃(𝐴1 ) ∙ 𝑃(𝐴2 |𝐴1 ) ∙ 𝑃(𝐴3 |𝐴1 𝐴2 ) ∙ … ∙ 𝑃(𝐴𝑛 |𝐴1 𝐴2 … 𝐴𝑛−1 )
(ii) If 𝑃1 and 𝑃2 are the probability of the happening of two independent events, then
the probability that the first event happens and the second fails is 𝑃1 (1 − 𝑃2 ).
(iii) We have
(a) 0 ≤ 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) ≤ 1
(b) 𝑃(𝑆|𝐴) = 1
(c) 𝑃(𝐵1 ∪ 𝐵2 |𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵1 |𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵2 |𝐴) if 𝐵1 ∩ 𝐵2 = 𝜙
 Exercise
2 1
1. If 𝐴 and 𝐵 are two independent events of 𝑆 such that 𝑃(𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵) = , 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵̅) = , then
15 6
find 𝑃(𝐵).
1 1
2. If 𝐴 and 𝐵 are two independent events of 𝑆 such that 𝑃(𝐴) = , 𝑃(𝐵) = , 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) =
3 4
1
then find
2
(i) 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵)
(ii) 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴)
(iii) 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵̅)
(iv) 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵̅)
3. In a certain town 40% have brown hair, 25% have brown eyes, 15% have both brown hair
and brown eyes. A person is selected at random.
(i) If he has brown hair, then what is the probability that he has brown eyes also.
(ii) If he has brown eyes, then what is the probability that he does not have brown
hair.
(iii) Determine the probability that he neither has brown hair nor brown eyes.
4. A bag contains 10 gold coins and 8 silver coins. Two successive drawings of 4 coins are
made such that.
(i) The coins are replaced before the second trial.
(ii) The coins are not replaced before the second trial.
Find the probability that the first drawing will give 4 gold coins and second drawing will
give 4 silver coins.
Solution: (i) When coins are replaced before the second trial,
10 𝐶
4
P(4 gold coins in first drawing) = 18 𝐶
4
8𝐶
4
P(4 silver coins in second drawing) = 18 𝐶
4
10 𝐶 × 8 𝐶
4 4
Required probability = 18 𝐶 × 18 𝐶
4 4
(ii) When coins are not replaced before the second trial,
10 𝐶
4
P(4 gold coins in first drawing) = 18 𝐶
4
8𝐶
4
P(4 silver coins in second drawing) = 14 𝐶
4
10 𝐶 × 8 𝐶
4 4
Required probability = 18 𝐶 × 14 𝐶
4 4
5. Two defective tubes get mixed up with 4 good ones. The tubes are tested one by one,
until both defectives are found. What is the probability that the last defective tube is
obtained on
(i) Second test
(ii) Third test
(iii) Sixth test
6. A die is tossed. If the number is odd on the face, what is the probability that it is prime?
Solution: A: Number is odd = {1,3,5}
B: Number is prime = {3,5}
3 2
𝑃(𝐴) = 6 , 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 6
2
Required probability = 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) = 3
Answers:
4 1
1. or
5 6
1 1 1 1
2. (i) (ii) (iii) (iv)
3 4 4 3
3
3. (i) (ii) 0.4 (iii) 0.5
8
4. Solution
1 2 1
5. (i) (ii) (iii)
15 15 3
6. Solution

Partition of a sample space

We say that the events 𝐵1 , 𝐵2 , … , 𝐵𝑘 represent a partition of the sample space 𝑆 if
1. 𝐵𝑖 ∩ 𝐵𝑗 = 𝜙 for all 𝑖 ≠ 𝑗 (mutually exclusive)
2. ⋃𝑘𝑖=1 𝐵𝑖 = 𝑆 (exhaustive)
3. 𝑃(𝐵𝑖 ) > 0 for all 𝑖

Total Probability Theorem

Let the events 𝐶1 , 𝐶2 , … , 𝐶𝑛 form partitions of the sample space 𝑆, where all the events have a
non-zero probability of occurrence. For any event 𝐴 associated with 𝑆,
𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐴|𝐶1 )𝑃(𝐶1 ) + 𝑃(𝐴|𝐶2 )𝑃(𝐶2 ) + ⋯ + 𝑃(𝐴|𝐶𝑘 )𝑃(𝐶𝑘 )

Proof

Let 𝐶1 , 𝐶2 , … , 𝐶𝑘 represent a partition of the sample space 𝑆. Let 𝐴 be

some event with respect to 𝑆. Then
𝐴 = (𝐴 ∩ 𝐶1 ) ∪ (𝐴 ∩ 𝐶2 ) ∪ … ∪ (𝐴 ∩ 𝐶𝑘 )

We note that all the events (𝐴 ∩ 𝐶1 ), (𝐴 ∩ 𝐶2 ), … , (𝐴 ∩ 𝐶𝑘 ) are pairwise mutually exclusive

Thus,
𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐶1 ) + 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐶2 ) + … + 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐶𝑘 )
But, 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐶𝑖 ) = 𝑃(𝐴|𝐶𝑖 ) ∙ 𝑃(𝐶𝑖 )

Hence, the total probability theorem is

𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐴|𝐶1 )𝑃(𝐶1 ) + 𝑃(𝐴|𝐶2 )𝑃(𝐶2 ) + ⋯ + 𝑃(𝐴|𝐶𝑘 )𝑃(𝐶𝑘 )
Bayes’ Theorem
Let an event 𝐴 correspond to a number of exhaustive events 𝐵1 , 𝐵2 , … , 𝐵𝑘 , which form a
partition of the sample space 𝑆. If 𝑃(𝐵𝑖 ) and 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵𝑖 ) are given, then

𝑃(𝐵𝑖 ) 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵𝑖 )
𝑃(𝐵𝑖 |𝐴) =
∑𝑘𝑖=1 𝑃(𝐵𝑖 )𝑃(𝐴|𝐵𝑖 )

Proof
From conditional probability, we have
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝑖 )
𝑃(𝐵𝑖 |𝐴) =
𝑃(𝐴)
𝑃(𝐴|𝐵𝑖 )𝑃(𝐵𝑖 )
= … (𝑖)
𝑃(𝐴)
(by using the multiplication theorem of probability)

Since the event 𝐴 corresponds to 𝐵1 , 𝐵2 , … 𝐵𝑘 , we have by total probability theorem,

𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵1 ) + 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵2 ) + ⋯ + 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝑘 )

= 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵1 )𝑃(𝐵1 ) + 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵2 )𝑃(𝐵2 ) + ⋯ + 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵𝑘 )𝑃(𝐵𝑘 )

= ∑ 𝑃(𝐵𝑘 )𝑃(𝐴|𝐵𝑘 )
𝑖=1

Substituting the above in (𝑖), we get

𝑃(𝐵𝑖 ) 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵𝑖 )
𝑃(𝐵𝑖 |𝐴) =
∑𝑘𝑖=1 𝑃(𝐵𝑖 )𝑃(𝐴|𝐵𝑖 )

The above theorem is also called as the theorem of inverse probability.

Exercise
1. A person has undertaken a construction job. The probabilities are 0.65 that there will be
strike, 0.80 that the construction job will be completed on time if there is no strike, and
0.32 that the construction job will be completed on time if there is a strike. Determine
the probability that the construction job will be completed on time.
Solution : A: The construction job will be completed on time
B: There will be a strike.
Given that 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.65,
𝑃(𝑛𝑜 𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑘𝑒) = 𝑃(𝐵′) = 1 − 0.65 = 0.35
Given that 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = 0.32, 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵′) = 0.80
 Since events 𝐵 and 𝐵′ form a partition of the sample space 𝑆, by total probability theorem,
𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵)𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐵 ′ )𝑃(𝐴|𝐵 ′) = 0.65 × 0.32 + 0.35 × 0.8 = 0.208 + 0.28 = 0.488
2. Suppose 3 companies 𝑥, 𝑦, 𝑧 produce TVs. 𝑥 produces twice as many as 𝑦 while 𝑦 and 𝑧
produce same number. It is known that 2% of 𝑥, 2% of 𝑦, 4% of 𝑧 are defective. All the
TVs produced are put into one shop and then 1 TV is chosen at random. What is the
probability that the TV is defective? Suppose a TV chosen is defective, what is the
probability that this TV is produced by company 𝑥?
Solution: X: TV produced by company 𝑥
Y: TV produced by company 𝑦
Z: TV produced by company 𝑧
D: TV is defective
Given : 𝑃(𝑋) = 0.5, 𝑃(𝑌) = 0.25, 𝑃(𝑍) = 0.25, 𝑃(𝐷|𝑋) = 0.02, 𝑃(𝐷|𝑌) = 0.02, 𝑃(𝐷|𝑍) = 0.04
(i) By total probability theorem, 𝑃(𝐷) = 𝑃(𝑋)𝑃(𝐷|𝑋) + 𝑃(𝑌)𝑃(𝐷|𝑌) + 𝑃(𝑍)𝑃(𝐷|𝑍) =
0.025
𝑃(𝐷|𝑋) 𝑃(𝑋)
(ii) By Bayes’ theorem,𝑃(𝑋|𝐷) = 𝑃(𝑋)𝑃(𝐷|𝑋)+𝑃(𝑌)𝑃(𝐷|𝑌)+𝑃(𝑍)𝑃(𝐷|𝑍) = 0.4

3. There are three boxes, the first one containing 1 white, 2 red and 3 black balls; the second one
containing 2 white, 3 red and 1 black ball and the third one containing 3 white, 1 red and 2
black balls. A box is chosen at random and from it two balls are drawn at random. One ball is
red and the other, white. What is the probability that they come from the second box?
4. A randomly selected year has 53 Sundays. Find the probability that it is a leap year.
5. Two factories produce identical clocks. The production of the first factory consists of
10,000 clocks of which 100 are defective. The second factory produces 20,000 clocks of
which 300 are defective. What is the probability that a particular defective clock was
produced in the first factory?
6. One percent of the population suffers from a certain disease. There is a blood test for
this disease, and it is 99% accurate, in other words, the probability that it gives the
correct answer is 0.99, regardless of whether the person is sick or healthy. A person
takes the blood test, and the result says that he has the disease. Find the probability
that he actually has the disease.
Solution: A: Blood test is positive
𝐵1: He has the disease
𝐵2: He doesn’t have the disease
1 99 99 1
Given : 𝑃(𝐵1 ) = 100 , 𝑃(𝐵2 ) = 100 , 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵1) = 100 , 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵2) = 100
𝑃(𝐵1 )𝑃(𝐴|𝐵1 )
By Bayes’ theorem, required probability = 𝑃(𝐵1|𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵 )𝑃(𝐴|𝐵
= 0.5
1 1 )+𝑃(𝐵2 )𝑃(𝐴|𝐵2 )

7. If a machine is correctly set up, it produces 90% acceptable items. If it is incorrectly set
up, it produces only 40% acceptable items. Past experience shows that 80% of the set
ups are correctly done. If after a certain set up, the machine produces 2 acceptable
items, find the probability that the machine is correctly setup.
Solution: A: The machine produces 2 acceptable items.
𝐵1: Machine is correctly set up
𝐵2: Machine is not correctly set up
Given: 𝑃(𝐵1 ) = 0.8, 𝑃(𝐵2 ) = 0.2
 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵1) = 0.9 × 0.9, 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵2 ) = 0.4 × 0.4
Therefore, by Bayes’ theorem, required probability = 𝑃(𝐵1|𝐴) = 0.95
8. It is suspected that a patient has one of the diseases 𝐴1 , 𝐴2 , 𝐴3 . Suppose that the
population suffering from this illness are in the ratio 2: 1: 1. The patient is given a test
which turns out to be positive in 25% of the cases of 𝐴1 , 50% of the cases of 𝐴2 and 90%
of the cases of 𝐴3 . Given that out of 3 tests taken by the patient two are positive, then
find the probability for each of the diseases.
Solution: 𝐴1 : The patient has disease 𝐴1
𝐴2 : The patient has disease 𝐴2
𝐴3 : The patient has disease 𝐴3
𝐵: Two test results are positive
2 1 1
Given: 𝑃(𝐴1 ) = 4 , 𝑃(𝐴2 ) = 4 , 𝑃(𝐴3 ) = 4.

3
1 23 3
1 21
)
𝑃(𝐵|𝐴1 = 𝑃𝑃𝑁 + 𝑃𝑁𝑃 + 𝑁𝑃𝑃 = 𝐶2 ( ) )
, 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴2 = 𝐶2 ( ) ,
4 4 2 2
2
9 1
𝑃(𝐵|𝐴3 ) = 3 𝐶2 ( )
10 10
Required probabilities = 𝑃(𝐴1 |𝐵) = 0.3128, 𝑃(𝐴2 |𝐵) = 0.4170, 𝑃(𝐴3 |𝐵) = 0.2703
9. An archer with an accuracy of 75% fires 3 arrows at one target. The probability of the
target falling is 0.6 if he hits once, 0.7 if he hits twice, 0.8 if he hits thrice. Given that, the
target has fallen find the probability that it was hit twice.
Solution: 𝐵1 : The target is hit first time
𝐵2 : The target is hit second time
𝐵3 : The target is hit third time
𝐵: The target falls
Given: 𝑃(𝑎𝑟𝑐ℎ𝑒𝑟 ℎ𝑖𝑡𝑠) = 0.75 𝑃(𝐵|𝐵1 ) = 0.6, 𝑃(𝐵|𝐵2 ) = 0.7, 𝑃(𝐵|𝐵3 ) = 0.8
1 23 1 3 2 3 3
𝑃(𝐵1 ) = 3 𝐶1 (4) 4
, 𝑃(𝐵2 ) = 3 𝐶2 4 (4) , 𝑃(𝐵3 ) = 3 𝐶3 (4)
Required probability = 𝑃(𝐵2 |𝐵) = 0.411
10. A bag contains three coins, one of which is two-headed and the other two coins are
normal and unbiased. One coin is chosen at random and is tossed four times in
succession. If each time head comes up, what is the probability that this is a two-headed
coin?
Solution: 𝐴: fair coin is tossed
𝐵: Fake coin is tossed
𝐻: Getting head 4 times
2 1
Given: 𝑃(𝐴) = 3 , 𝑃(𝐵) = 3
1 4
𝑃(𝐻|𝐵) = 1, 𝑃(𝐻|𝐴) = (2)
8
Required probability = 𝑃(𝐵|𝐻) = 9
11.Two absent minded roommates forget their umbrella in some way or the other. 𝐴
always takes his umbrella when he goes out. 𝐵 forgets to take his umbrella with a
1 1
probability . Each of them forget their umbrella at a shop with probability . After
2 4
visiting three shops, they return home. Find the probability that
(i) Only one has umbrella.
 (ii) 𝐵 lost his umbrella given that there is only one umbrella after their return.
Solution: 𝐴: 𝐴 has umbrella after returning home
𝐵: 𝐵 has umbrella after returning home
3 3 1 1 3 3
𝑃(𝐴) = ( ) , 𝑃(𝐵) = + ( )
4 2 2 4
2183
(i) Required probability = 𝑃(𝐴′ 𝐵 + 𝐴𝐵′ ) = 4096
𝑃(𝐴′ 𝐵′ ) 27
(ii) Required probability = 𝑃(𝑜𝑛𝑙𝑦 𝑜𝑛𝑒 ℎ𝑎𝑠 𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑟𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑎) = 118

12.(Birthday Problem)
How many people are needed in a room for there to be a probability that two people
have the same birthday to be at least 0.5? Ignore leap years and assume that all
birthdays are equally likely.
Solution: Let us assume that there are 𝑘 people in the room.
We solve this by finding the probability of no birthday match.
From 365 possible birthdays, the total number of possibilities of birthday
combinations is 365𝑘 .
For nobody to have the same birthday, the first person can have any
birthday, the second has 364 else to choose, etc. Hence
365 ⋅ 364 ⋅ 363 ⋯ (365 − (𝑘 − 1))
𝑃(no shared birthday) =
365𝑘
= 𝑃(𝑘), say.
Then 𝑃(shared birthday) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑘)
We have,
1 − 𝑃(22) = 0.4757
1 − 𝑃(23) = 0.5073
The lowest 𝑘 for which the probability exceeds 0.5 is, 𝑘 = 23.
Answer: 23

13. (Hat Problem)

A group of 𝑛 people enter a restaurant and give their hats to the hat-keeper. On return,
the hat-keeper redistributes the hats back at random.
(i) What is the probability 𝑃𝑛 that no person gets his/her correct hat?
(ii) What happens to 𝑃𝑛 as 𝑛 tends to infinity?

Answers:
1. Solution
2. Solution
6
3.
11
4. 0.4
5. 0.25
6. Solution
7. Solution
8. Solution
9. Solution
10. Solution
11. Solution
12. Solution
1 1 1 1 1
13. (𝑖) 𝑃𝑛 = (1 − + − + ⋯ + (−1)𝑛 )
1! 2! 3! 4! 𝑛!
1
(𝑖𝑖)
𝑒