UGC NET DAILY CLASS NOTES Economics Mathematics, Statistics and Econometrics Lecture - 11 Sampling Methods & Sampling Distribution oyeSampling Methods & Sampling Distribution Descriptive Statistics * Descriptive statistics are used to describe the basic features of the data in a study. They provide simple summaries about the sample and the measures. Together with simple graphics analysis, they form the basis of virtually every quantitative analysis of data + With descriptive statistics you are simply describing what is or what the data shows. With md the immediate inferential statistics, you are trying to reach conclusions that extend be data alone. + We use inferential statistics to make inferences from our data to more general conditions; we use descriptive statistics simply to describe what’s going on in our data. Inferential Statistics But it is always not possible to study each and every item of population due to time constraints, large) to study. So we resort to sample survey method, whereby we take a random sample from the population and study its features such as sample mean, sample variance and we try to estimate the parent population features, This branch of Statistics is termed as Inferential Statistics. Parameters: Features of Population like Pop Mean (1), Pop Variance (0), ete. Statistic: Features of Sample like Sample Mean (x), Sample Variance (S?), ete. Survey Methods: Census Method & Sample Method We study population to ascertain its features such as mean, median, mode, kurtosis, moments, ete. This branch of statistics that deals with study the of population is termed as Descriptive Statistics and the type of survey conducted to study the population is cens s survey method. Census Survey Method or Complete Enumeration: In this method, we investigate 100% items ofa population and thereby this method provides accurate exact information, since each and every unit of population is being enumerated, This method requires a lot of time, money and manpower, | ' ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! | | | resource constraints, cost constraints. Further, at certain times, population size is infinite (too ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! | hence not a resouree-effective method. |a 6 Sample Survey Method or Partial Enumeration: In the words of Fisher, sampling survey method is better than Census Survey in terms of Speed, Economy, Adaptability and Scientific Approach. Advantages of Sample Method over Census Method: . Speed and less time-consuming: As only a part of the population is to be studied, so it is less time consuming and saves a lot of resources. 2. Economical: It is more economical than census method. As only a part of the population is to be studied, so the cost involved in collection of information, travelling costs, resource & training costs, administrative expenses all are slashed. 3. Easy administration: Since lesser team size is to be administrated, so ease in administration and better coordination between teams. 4, Reliability: While in the census method, sampling errors are completely absent. If non- sampling errors are also absent, then the results would be 100% accurate, However, in case of sample method, we have both sampling and non-sampling errors. Sampling errors are of less serious type, as these can be rectified by use of correct sampling methods. But non- sampling errors are of more serious error. Non Sampling errors are errors related to measuring and recording observations, inaccuracy, incompleteness of information, non- response, incomplete interpretations of questions, etc. Non-sampling errors are more in the Census Method, while in sampling method, non-sampling errors can be managed and controlled by employing highly skilled personnel, better supervision and by using more sophisticated equipment and statistical techniques. Hence, sampling method provides better results than Census method, provided if the non-sampling errors can be reduced, [Refer to the topic Sampling and Non-Sampling errors for more] Budget Small Large | | Time Short Long | |Size of Population Small Large Variance Small Large Sampling Errors High Low or Zero Non-Sampling Errors Low High Parameter & Statisti Parameters Statistic Population Mean (1) Sample Mean X Population Variance (6) Sample Variance (s?) Population Standard Deviation (6) Sample Standard Deviation (s) Population Skewness (B:) Sample Skewness (b1) Population Kurtosis (2) Sample Kurtosis (b2) Population Moments (111) Sample Moments (m:) Population Correlation Coefficient (p) Sample Correlation Coefficient (1) Asstatistic is said to be an unbiased estimate of the population parameter 0, if the expected value of the statistic is equal to the parameter. E( Statistic) = Parameter . . = 2 2 Unbiased Estimate of Parameter JE(X)= or E(S*)= Sample > Iisa unit that is selected from population > It represents the whole population > The basic purpose of sampling is to draw an inference about the populationSampling Sample is a finite subset of population which has been selected from the population with the objective of studying the properties of population. The technique of selecting sample from population is termed as sampling. Objectives of Sampling 1. To fetch optimum results: With the constraints imposed in terms of cost, money, resources and time, the objective of sampling is ‘ble information about (0 aim at the maximum po: the population using the given resource constraints. 2. To obtain best possible estimates of the population parameters: Using sample the basic idea of sampling is to calculate sample statistic which are as clos are the best estimate of their corresponding population parameters. Out of many statistic only the one which is the closest to the actual value of the population parameter is termed as best and unbiased. rrors: The term error is not to be interpreted as inaccuracies or mistakes committed during calculations and counting. In Statistics and Econometrics, the word error is used to denote the difference between the true value (actual value or population parameters) and the estimated (observed value or sample statistic). Such errors may emerge due to: a. Approximations in measurements b. Approximations in rounding of the figures ¢. Biases due to faulty collection, analysis of the data, presentation and interpretation of the results d. Personal biases of the investigators, enumerators, etc. Sampling and Non-Sampling Errors: Errors due to faulty methods of collection, presentation, analysis and interpretation of the data and results can be classified as follows : ( Sampling Errors and (ii) Non-Sampling Errors.Sampling Errors: These emerge in sampling method only. In sampling method, as only a small portion of the population is studied, so there exists a difference in the sample results and census results, Sampling errors arise due to the following reasons: 1 2. 3 Incorrect selection of sample, due to bias introduced by the use of defective sampling technique Use of faulty sampling methods Error due to bias in the estimation method: In sampling method, we estimate sample ic and thereafter approximate it to population parameter. Improper choice of estimation technique lead to error. For example, sample variance of a sample consisting of n variable is: iz => @-x)? n Gx ) This is a biased estimate of the population variance o”, whereas an unbiased estimate of o” is 1 Y j-¥)? “n-lt A measure of the sampling error is provided by the standard error of the estimate. The knowledge and estimation of the sampling error reduce uncertainty. The reliability or efficiency of a sampling plan is determined by the reciprocal of the standard error of the estimate and is called the precision of the estimate. Ina sample survey, attempt is made to minimise this sampling error, which is same as increasing the precision of the estimate.Sample size Non-Sampling Errors. Non-sampling errors are due to chance factor but are a result of human action. These errors can occur at any stage of collection, presentation and publication of results. Thus, non-sampling errors are present both in census surveys as well as sample surveys. However, in case of census method, non-sampling errors are in greater magnitude, as there exists a large number of items to be studied. (Census Method: Only Non-Sampling Error [Sampling Method: Sampling Error + Non-Sampling Error But in sampling method, both sampling and non-sampling errors can be controlled, |which, increases the reliability of sampling method. In a census, sampling error is completely absent so that the total error is non-sampling error. A sample survey, on the other hand, contains both sampling and non-sampling errors. Non-sampling errors are more in the Census Method, while in sampling method, non-sampling errors can be managed and controlled by employing highly skilled personnel, better supervision and by using more sophisticated equipment and statistical techniques. Hence, sampling method provides better results than Census method, provided if the non-sampling errors can be reduced, the data. Absolute Measures of Statistical Errors Absolute Error. Itis the difference between the true value of any particular item and its estimated or approximated value. AE=|a-e| where ais the a tual value and e is the estimated value and | a—e | represents the modulus value of (a—e) after ignoring the negative sign,Relative Error: \n order to facilitate comparison of the errors, the errors are reduced to pure numbers which are independent of the units of measurement. This is done by calculating the Relative Error (R.E.) which is defined as the ratio of the absolute error to the actual value. a-e pp = AE | | Actual value a Sampling Techniques ‘Sampling Techniques t LT i t is Multistage | Simple Systematic || Stratified | Cluster Sampling ‘Sampling Sampling Sampling _ Random Sampling: It is a technique of sample selection in which each item has equal probability of getting selected in a single trial. In a random sample, each member of the entire population has an equal chance of being selected. Simple Random Sampling: It is a technique of sample selection in which every possible sample of same size has equal probability of getting selected in all trials. Simple Random Sampling is one of the technique of random sampling, like stratified, cluster and multistage cluster sampling. Example: There are 100 students in a class with 50 boys and 50 girls. The names of all the students irrespective of their gender have been put in a bowl and the bowl has been thoroughly mixed. a) Now, if randomly 1 slip is drawn: Then it is: ‘© Random Sampling: As each and every student has an equal chance of getting selected in atrial © Simple Random Sampling, as each sample of size I has equal chance of getting selected. All samples have equal chance in all trials. b) If randomly 10 slips are drawn: Then it is:© Random Sampling, as each and every student has an equal chance of getting selected in a trial ‘© Simple Random Sampling, as each sample of size 10 has equal chance of getting selected. All samples have equal chance in all trials. That is every group of 10 items has an equal chance of getting selected in all trials ©) Now, suppose roll no. 1 to 50 slips are put in one bowl and roll no. 51 to 100 are put in another bowl. Now, we have to make 10 draws from both the bowls together (in total). We have to select a sample, which consists of § Boys and 5 Girls: Then it is ‘Random Sampling: As we can draw 5 slips from bowl-1 and 5 slips from bowl-2. Each and every items in both the bowls have equal chance of getting selected in a trial. © Not a Simple Random Sampling: As there may be samples consisting of + 1Gand9B 2Band8G 3Gand7B + 5 Band 5 Gand so on.. In this case, the sample of 10 students consisting of 5 B and 5 G is not equal to another samples of 10 students. Simple Random Sampling > Each sample size of say ‘n’ has an equal chance of getting selected. > We can generate random numbers using Random Number Table Advantages AN ee pao Doo De + Minimal knowledge of the population is 7 is 7 e required as 8 13 18 23 Disadvantages 4 ed 14 19 24 + Does not use researcher's expertise Ei ra iG mi 5 + Greater risk of random error + No assurance of representativeness If the unit selected in any draw is not replaced in the population before making the next draw, then it is known as simple random sampling without replacement (srswor) and if itis replacedback before making the next draw, then the sampling plan is called simple random sampling with replacement (srswr). SRSWOR: If a sample of size n is drawn without replacement from a population of size N then there are “Cy possible samples. Simple Random Sampling is the technique of selecting the sample so that each of these NCn samples has an equal probability of 1 . « “7— of being selected in the sample SRSWR: If sampling is done with replacement, then there are N" possible samples of size n. In + for each of the N" samples to be selected this case, SRSWR gives equal chance of NV Stratified Sampling Stratified sampling technique is an alternative to reduce variability in the population. Using stratified sampling technique, sample mean can be made a more efficient estimate of the population mean, since this technique reduces heterogeneity or variability in the population, Thus, in other words, when the population is heterogeneous with respect to the variable or characteristic under study, then the technique of stratified random sampling is used to obtain more efficient results. Besides this, in highly skewed distributions, stratified sampling technique can produce efficient results. Stratification means division into layers or groups. > Strata means class or group consisting of homogenous items. Some of the stratum factors are geographical, economic characteristics, age, gender, income, occupation, etc > The whole population is divided into strata and thereafter, from each strata, items are picked up in random manner. Steps involved in Stratified Sampling i) Deciding upon the relevant stratification criteria such as sex, geographical region, age, courses of study, etc ii) Dividing the total population into sub-populations based on the stratification criteria. iii) Listing the units separately in each sub-population.iv) Selecting the requisite number of units from each sub-population by using an appropriate random selection technique. ¥) Consolidating the sub-samples for making the main sample. ‘Thus, stratification improves the representativeness of a sample by introducing a secondary element of control. However, the efficiency of the stratified random sample depends on the allocation of sample size to the strata. Advantages + Assures representation of all groups in the 5 r sample 6 | * Characteristics of each stratum can be 7 LE 8 D estimated and comparisons made Disadvantages | 19 | + Requires accurate information on [ 10 | 15 25 proportions of each stratum Vertical Strata + Stratified lists costly to prepare + Not feasible to stratify on many variables, expensive. Systematic sampling It arranges all the elements of a population in a Rn De particular order. Thereafter, every nth item ll 16 21 12 17 22 ve 18 oa 14 19 24 0 15 20 2) Cc from the order is being selected It provides a more even spread of the sample over the population list and leads to greater precision. ‘alalo vle elo alata Steps involved: i) Make a list of the population units based on some order - alphabetical, seniority, street number, house number or any such factor.ii) Determine the desired sampling fraction, say 50 out of 1000; and also the number of the Kth unit. [K=N/n= 1000/50 = 20]. iii) Starting with a randomly chosen number between 1 and K, both inclusive, select every Kth unit from the list. If in the above example the randomly chosen number is 4, the sample shall include the 4th, 24th, 44th, 64th, 84th units in cach of the scries going upto the 984th unit. This method provides a sample as good as a simple random sample and is comparatively easier to draw. If a researcher is interested to study the average telephone bill of an area in his/her city, he/she may randomly select every fourth telephone holder from the telephone directory and find out their annual telephone bills. Advantages a) It involves simple calculations. c) Easier to implement than Simple Random Sampling 4d) Easy to verity ¢) Systematic sampling may be more efficient than simple random sampling provided the frame is complete and up-to-date and the units are arranged serially in a random order Disadvantages + May reduce representativeness in case the data exhibits cyclical patterns + Periodic ordering required Clustered Sampling > The whole population is divided into mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive sub- groups or clusters. > Thereafter, a random sample of clusters is selected using simple random sampling method. { | | 1 1 | 1 1 1 1 1 1 | 1 1 b) It is less expensive than random sampling 1 | 1 1 1 | 1 1 1 1 | | | | IAdvantages Disadvantages + Expensive & demands time as it requires two stages selection * Sampling errors increases with the number of stages of cluster sampling Multistage Sampling: Similar to the cluster sampling, the initial steps are laid, However, at the end instead of enumerating all the sampling units in the selected clusters, one can obtain better and more efficient estimates by resorting to sub-sampling within the clusters. The technique is called er ria two-stage sampling, clusters being termed as primary units and the units within the S HOG ae clusters as secondary units. ZS Swe ras > The whole population is divided nysYo} é 1s) @60 into mutually exclusive and - “$0 6008 | | | | | | | | | | | ' | { + Can estimate characteristics of both cluster and population | | | | | | | | | | | | Icollectively exhaustive sub-groups or clusters. > Thercafier, random sample of groups is selected using simple random sampling method. > After that, from each selected groups, items are selected probabilistically, that is, random selection of items from each groups. Advantages + Accurate and effective Disadvantages + Expensive & demands time as it requires two stages selection + Sampling errors increases with the number of stages of cluster sampling Non-Probability Techniques > The probability of each case being selected from the total population is not known. > Units of the sample are chosen on the basis of the personal judgement or convenience. > No statistical techniques are used for measuring random sampling error in a non- probability sample. Convenience Sampling > Itinvolve choosing the respondents as per the convenience of the researcher. Advantages + Low cost + Most convenient * Easy to comprehendDisadvantages + Reflects personal biasedness and value judgement + Can't be generalized. + Sample not representative. No purple figures in sample + Not applicable for descriptive or casual research It can be considered as a special form of stratified sampling. In quota sampling method, the investigator is already instructed in advance about the number of the sample units s/he has to investigate from the stratum so assigned. Thus, for the investigator has pre-decided stratum, which is based on certain features such as income, gender, occupation, ete. Which strata to go for is and instead applies his judgment and discretion in the choice of the sample and tries to get the desired information. Merits L. Itisa stratified-cum-purposive or judgment sampling, so is featured by benefits of both of these techniques. 2. This method is time & money-efficient is considerable. 3. If carefully executed by skilled and experienced investigators and if proper controls or checks are imposed on the investigators, quota sampling is likely to give quite reliable results. Demerits: 1. The sample so selected is biased because of the personal beliefs and prejudices of the investigator in the selection of the units or/and inspecting them. 2. Since it is not based on random sampling, the sampling error cannot be estimated. 3. No assurance of representativeness { | | i something that the investigator has to decide. Normally, he does not resort to random sampling, | | | |Judgemental Sampling (Purposive > The researcher uses his or her own expert knowledge or judgement for selecting the sample Advantages + Low cost * Convenient + Less time consuming Disadvantages + Subjective + Personal Biasedness + Can't be generalized. Snowball Sampling > The researcher starts with a key identified person and thereafter he introduces the next respondent and likewise the second respondent introduces the subsequent é respondents. - ¥ it $ ad ¢ , Advantages r S it i i , Hi on #. + + Low cost Wt + Usefllin eases where respondents form if a remote group and researcher is new to ayy \ “grk them, thts Roc Disadvantages + Time consuming * Dependent upon the key person + Can't be generalized.wicerae fae site wide soot wUfercre aia + febett xecrerar FH Ser cht afererct faatsarsit ar avter chest a fore qufarrcatas eritesaest eT soe feoar ora 21 a oft sie aT & are H Hees eretel Warat ced El Hess sree faeadaor & enet, & Sere ora Ee rare faedsyor vettaarret wr sere Tarrd I + Gufarcares erifextest co emer oy Get UE Gar ze € fos Sor ATs aT HT Gerfar U1 seeqantera aeAH & eel, SM Fat ferepUl aap UR erat CHT WaT che ze wit dhaes areepifescp Sera wee + ea sre Ser a odes craree eae er stefarret orTat @ fese steyefera sitesst eT TANT ced &; EA Gufcrrcaren ariteateht apr THI dass UE aret t fesw Hed e fos ca Sora center on cere sreyfaite RAT aaa ht coat, cree cSt pai, MTA Bl hall co HreVT eSB St eke AY HT Se HAT Aen aaa argt eat & | Seed sresva, faa ears ve, Heater d FSU vrereiewUl eI aTebTe steiat (sget BT) Sra SI Bente eer letererer ereareT faa aor ever Se B, Fereras sicher gar vrovetaT a Um Ue ideal oa é site sercht facrasht Aa wcrc reer, freA MeO GPT Bre TET wea & she Ga aes vroteicom HATA GT srapstrot HITT HT WATE Shed El erifeAeA cA se emer Bl Heyfatiel aHEAT wer ora | wraee carci ah faarrane vA GAG sree (1), UTI WeteTT (02), s4Tfe1 eeaeh. serra Bt featrare iat Mfcrererar area (x), wicrererer eteTT (S?), sf Fa OTE oT HeereH Terr aloes vat area, areAepy, aos, aelfeter, avr, sife sretas fou wed 8 aia cl ae ere vi HrateieoM a serrata aaa &, IA avfettcarcy aieAATEl ATA & Bile MeTaGMT GST AeACAT caeet ao FSU feu vArel aT ASAT HT ASTUTE eee OT fate wer ara él ‘TreT TOT ereeroT FApA a or afesroTen: Ser Fava a, Eat ToreicsaT at 100% set ct ore Hea e sie Ba Wepre Ue fafa aenel crater Meret ect &, ceitfes ratetemn cht Wee SaaS BT Tere at AT zal ai sa fafa & fae aga sifiles aay, erat site vietafes ot staecepar ad %, safe aE ‘arererat-varrch fatal are 21 ‘wicrererar examen fae on aiifeles wfesToren: flere ob erect a, ara, fatcroatean, sreyeposateftescn site Saifetes efeaptor a ares F yfdererer ada fate vromroren Adar a ware erat 21 Tene Teefel oot qeser St ictererat Uefa Ss TAH: 1 Ofe sie war Aare Sot arest: Ges starch a Graces ve feat wr wearer ese Tau z, safe sad Gal Here GTA z site Ed are cence ht tara ett 2 2, acre: aE cewroren Uefa A afses ferred ei ales srraret d dacs ve feed cor at ‘Heeeer FSA ATA IAT , SAMOS TSAI Wasa Seer H emtstes HMA, AAT SMTA, SreATELST site Wieleror Pra, Verrertetes wel eal Ht asctcht cbt arr 21 3, Fees cenevar: oes oat Chat atrepre GT Waelat HeoTl ela z, Satfse yeretar H arees ee site dail dla sageh aaeda Alc 2! 4, faacrtaa: wates copreren vata a ufdaeret eideh seat yora: areqateta ett €1 ae Te auf gear aft sreqateda ze, ct afeonet 100% aches ttl eresifes, wferererat feet a arenes Fi, ufcrererar site re-wfcrereret Shalt Bear el wie Beat war waft vente Gt ectt % Tele sok Sage Ula fafeat do saatT a step fora vt esa BI chfesot Fe- vftrererar great sites viata ge aah atch Bi ste-waferaarat geat sracstasalt at ares shiz Rests wea, sie, aaron Hi arquten, Ne-wlatasen, salt at siqul cares, ante B aiei fk Aca atch 8 merreren Teta a Fe-wierae Beat sifelep etch 2, mates wfeererat fate a, Te-ufduaet geal a apc & sicealdes Heres oistell a fereifora wee, seae veaevt aie afdep ufeepa saepeul sie aifeachta aepeftenl apr soa edd valle site ferifaafeoar on Hear 21 sertesu, ufcteerat fate crortoren fate Bt qeson at dec UfeoTa Were ‘wed @, sed fe Fe-wieaaet feat wl wat feet oT ach! 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