Lectures Part 2 Probability

Outlines :
✓ What is Probability?
✓ How To Calculate Probability Using the Probability Formula?
✓ How to Determine Probability?
✓ What are the Three Types of Probability?
✓ What is Conditional Probability?
✓ What is Experimental Probability?
✓ What is a Probability Distribution?
✓ How are Probability and Statistics Related?
✓ How Probability is Used in Real Life?
✓ How was Probability Discovered?
✓ Where Do We Use the Probability Formula In Our Real Life?
✓ What is the Conditional Probability Formula?

Probability

Probability defines the likelihood of occurrence of an event. There are many

real-life situations in which we may have to predict the outcome of an event. We
may be sure or not sure of the results of an event. In such cases, we say that there
is a probability of this event to occur or not occur. Probability generally has great
applications in games, in business to make probability-based predictions, and
also probability has extensive applications in this new area of artificial
intelligence.

The probability of an event can be calculated by probability formula by simply

dividing the favorable number of outcomes by the total number of possible
outcomes. The value of the probability of an event to happen can lie between 0
and 1 because the favorable number of outcomes can never cross the total
number of outcomes. Also, the favorable number of outcomes cannot be
negative. Let us discuss the basics of probability in detail in the following
sections.

What is Probability?

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Probability can be defined as the ratio of the number of favorable outcomes to

the total number of outcomes of an event. For an experiment having 'n' number
of outcomes, the number of favorable outcomes can be denoted by x. The
formula to calculate the probability of an event is as follows.

Probability(Event) = Favorable Outcomes/Total Outcomes = x/n

Let us check a simple application of probability to understand it better. Suppose

we have to predict about the happening of rain or not. The answer to this question
is either "Yes" or "No". There is a likelihood to rain or not rain. Here we can
apply probability. Probability is used to predict the outcomes for the tossing of
coins, rolling of dice, or drawing a card from a pack of playing cards.

The probability is classified into theoretical probability and experimental

probability.

Terminology of Probability Theory

The following terms in probability help in a better understanding of the concepts

of probability.

Experiment: A trial or an operation conducted to produce an outcome is called

an experiment.

Sample Space: All the possible outcomes of an experiment together constitute

a sample space. For example, the sample space of tossing a coin is head and tail.

Favorable Outcome: An event that has produced the desired result or expected
event is called a favorable outcome. For example, when we roll two dice, the
possible/favorable outcomes of getting the sum of numbers on the two dice as 4
are (1,3), (2,2), and (3,1).

Trial: A trial denotes doing a random experiment.

Random Experiment: An experiment that has a well-defined set of outcomes

is called a random experiment. For example, when we toss a coin, we know that
we would get ahead or tail, but we are not sure which one will appear.

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Event: The total number of outcomes of a random experiment is called an event.

Equally Likely Events: Events that have the same chances or probability of
occurring are called equally likely events. The outcome of one event is
independent of the other. For example, when we toss a coin, there are equal
chances of getting a head or a tail.

Exhaustive Events: When the set of all outcomes of an experiment is equal to

the sample space, we call it an exhaustive event.

Mutually Exclusive Events: Events that cannot happen simultaneously are

called mutually exclusive events. For example, the climate can be either hot or
cold. We cannot experience the same weather simultaneously.

Probability Formula

The probability formula defines the likelihood of the happening of an event. It

is the ratio of favorable outcomes to the total favorable outcomes.
The probability formula can be expressed as,

where,

• P(B) is the probability of an event 'B'.

• n(B) is the number of favorable outcomes of an event 'B'.
• n(S) is the total number of events occurring in a sample space.
Different Probability Formulas

Probability formula with addition rule: Whenever an event is the union of

two other events, say A and B, then

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P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A∩B)

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A∩B)

Probability formula with the complementary rule: Whenever an event is the

complement of another event, specifically, if A is an event, then P(not A) = 1 -
P(A) or P(A') = 1 - P(A).
P(A) + P(A′) = 1.

Probability formula with the conditional rule: When event A is already

known to have occurred and the probability of event B is desired, then P(B,
given A) = P(A and B), P(A, given B). It can be vice versa in the case of event
B.
P(B∣A) = P(A∩B)/P(A)

Probability formula with multiplication rule: Whenever an event is the

intersection of two other events, that is, events A and B need to occur
simultaneously. Then P(A and B) = P(A)⋅P(B).
P(A∩B) = P(A)⋅P(B∣A)

Example 1: Find the probability of getting a number less than 5 when a dice is
rolled by using the probability formula.

Solution

To find:Probability of getting a number less than 5

Given: Sample space = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
Getting a number less than 5 = {1,2,3,4}
Therefore, n(S) = 6
n(A) = 4
Using Probability Formula,
P(A) = (n(A))/(n(s))
p(A) = 4/6
m = 2/3

Answer: The probability of getting a number less than 5 is 2/3.

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Example 2: What is the probability of getting a sum of 9 when two dice are
thrown?

Solution:

There is a total of 36 possibilities when we throw two dice.

To get the desired outcome i.e., 9, we can have the following favorable
outcomes.
(4,5),(5,4),(6,3)(3,6). There are 4 favorable outcomes.
Probability of an event P(E) = (Number of favorable outcomes) ÷ (Total
outcomes in a sample space)
Probability of getting number 9 = 4 ÷ 36 = 1/9

Answer: Therefore the probability of getting a sum of 9 is 1/9.

Probability Tree Diagram

A tree diagram in probability is a visual representation that helps in finding the

possible outcomes or the probability of any event occurring or not occurring.
The tree diagram for the toss of a coin given below helps in understanding the
possible outcomes when a coin is tossed and thus in finding the probability of
getting a head or tail when a coin is tossed.

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Types of Probability

There can be different perspectives or types of probabilities based on the nature

of the outcome or the approach followed while finding the probability of an
event happening. The four types of probabilities are,

• Classical Probability
• Empirical Probability
• Subjective Probability
• Axiomatic Probability
Classical Probability

Classical probability, often referred to as the "priori" or "theoretical probability",

states that in an experiment where there are B equally likely outcomes, and event
X has exactly A of these outcomes, then the probability of X is A/B, or P(X) =
A/B. For example, when a fair die is rolled, there are six possible outcomes that
are equally likely. That means, there is a 1/6 probability of rolling each number
on the die.

Empirical Probability

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The empirical probability or the experimental perspective evaluates probability

through thought experiments. For example, if a weighted die is rolled, such that
we don't know which side has the weight, then we can get an idea for the
probability of each outcome by rolling the die number of times and calculating
the proportion of times the die gives that outcome and thus find the probability
of that outcome.

Subjective Probability

Subjective probability considers an individual's own belief of an event

occurring. For example, the probability of a particular team winning a football
match on a fan's opinion is more dependent upon their own belief and feeling
and not on a formal mathematical calculation.

Axiomatic Probability

In axiomatic probability, a set of rules or axioms by Kolmogorov are applied to

all the types. The chances of occurrence or non-occurrence of any event can be
quantified by the applications of these axioms, given as,

• The smallest possible probability is zero, and the largest is one.

• An event that is certain has a probability equal to one.
• Any two mutually exclusive events cannot occur simultaneously, while
the union of events says only one of them can occur.

Finding the Probability of an Event

In an experiment, the probability of an event is the possibility of that event

occurring. The probability of any event is a value between (and including) "0"
and "1".

Events in Probability

In probability theory, an event is a set of outcomes of an experiment or a subset

of the sample space.

If P(E) represents the probability of an event E, then, we have,

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• P(E) = 0 if and only if E is an impossible event.

• P(E) = 1 if and only if E is a certain event.
• 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1.

Suppose, we are given two events, "A" and "B", then the probability of event A,
P(A) > P(B) if and only if event "A" is more likely to occur than the event "B".
Sample space(S) is the set of all of the possible outcomes of an experiment and
n(S) represents the number of outcomes in the sample space.

P(E) = n(E)/n(S)

P(E’) = (n(S) - n(E))/n(S) = 1 - (n(E)/n(S))

E’ represents that the event will not occur.

Therefore, now we can also conclude that, P(E) + P(E’) = 1

Coin Toss Probability

Let us now look into the probability of tossing a coin. Quite often in games like
cricket, for making a decision as to who would bowl or bat first, we sometimes
use the tossing of a coin and decide based on the outcome of the toss. Let us
check as to how we can use the concept of probability in the tossing of a single
coin. Further, we shall also look into the tossing of two and three coming
respectively.

Tossing a Coin

A single coin on tossing has two outcomes, a head, and a tail. The concept of
probability which is the ratio of favorable outcomes to the total number of
outcomes can be used to find the probability of getting the head and the
probability of getting a tail.

Total number of possible outcomes = 2; Sample Space = {H, T}; H: Head, T:

Tail

• P(H) = Number of heads/Total outcomes = 1/2

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• P(T)= Number of Tails/ Total outcomes = 1/2

Tossing Two Coins

In the process of tossing two coins, we have a total of four outcomes. The
probability formula can be used to find the probability of two heads, one head,
no head, and a similar probability can be calculated for the number of tails. The
probability calculations for the two heads are as follows.

Total number of outcomes = 4; Sample Space = {(H, H), (H, T), (T, H), (T, T)}

• P(2H) = P(0 T) = Number of outcome with two heads/Total Outcomes

= 1/4
• P(1H) = P(1T) = Number of outcomes with only one head/Total
Outcomes = 2/4 = 1/2
• P(0H) = (2T) = Number of outcome with two heads/Total Outcomes =
1/4
Tossing Three Coins

The number of total outcomes on tossing three coins simultaneously is equal to

23 = 8. For these outcomes, we can find the probability of getting one head, two
heads, three heads, and no head. A similar probability can also be calculated for
the number of tails.

Total number of outcomes = 23 = 8 Sample Space = {(H, H, H), (H, H, T), (H,
T, H), (T, H, H), (T, T, H), (T, H, T), (H, T, T), (T, T, T)}

P(0H) = P(3T) = Number of outcomes with no heads/Total Outcomes

•
= 1/8
• P(1H) = P(2T) = Number of Outcomes with one head/Total Outcomes
= 3/8
• P(2H) = P(1T) = Number of outcomes with two heads /Total Outcomes
= 3/8
• P(3H) = P(0T) = Number of outcomes with three heads/Total Outcomes
= 1/8
Dice Roll Probability

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Many games use dice to decide the moves of players across the games. A dice
has six possible outcomes and the outcomes of a dice is a game of chance and
can be obtained by using the concepts of probability. Some games also use two
dice, and there are numerous probabilities that can be calculated for outcomes
using two dice. Let us now check the outcomes, their probabilities for one dice
and two dice respectively.

Rolling One Dice

The total number of outcomes on rolling a die is 6, and the sample space is {1,
2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Here we shall compute the following few probabilities to help in
better understanding the concept of probability on rolling one dice.

• P(Even Number) = Number of even number outcomes/Total Outcomes

= 3/6 = 1/2
• P(Odd Number) = Number of odd number outcomes/Total Outcomes =
3/6 = 1/2
• P(Prime Number) = Number of prime number outcomes/Total
Outcomes = 3/6 = 1/2
Rolling Two Dice

The total number of outcomes on rolling two dice is 62 = 36. The following
image shows the sample space of 36 outcomes on rolling two dice.

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Let us check a few probabilities of the outcomes from two dice. The probabilities
are as follows.

• Probability of getting a doublet(Same number) = 6/36 = 1/6

• Probability of getting a number 3 on at least one dice = 11/36
• Probability of getting a sum of 7 = 6/36 = 1/6

As we see, when we roll a single die, there are 6 possibilities. When we roll two
dice, there are 36 possibilities. When we roll 3 dice we get 216 possibilities. So
a general formula to represent the number of outcomes on rolling 'n' dice is 6n.

Probability Theorems

The following theorems of probability are helpful to understand the applications

of probability and also perform the numerous calculations involving probability.

Theorem 1: The sum of the probability of happening of an event and not

happening of an event is equal to 1. P(A)+P(¯A)=1P(A)+P(A¯)=1

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Theorem 2: The probability of an impossible event or the probability of an

event not happening is always equal to 0. P(ϕ)=0P(ϕ)=0

Theorem 3: The probability of a sure event is always equal to 1. P(A) = 1

Theorem 4: The probability of happening of any event always lies between 0

and 1. 0 < P(A) < 1

Theorem 5: If there are two events A and B, we can apply the formula of the
union of two sets and we can derive the formula for the probability of happening
of event A or event B as follows.

P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)

Also for two mutually exclusive events A and B, we have P( A U B) = P(A) +

P(B)

Bayes' Theorem on Conditional Probability

Bayes' theorem describes the probability of an event based on the condition of

occurrence of other events. It is also called conditional probability. It helps in
calculating the probability of happening of one event based on the condition of
happening of another event.

For example, let us assume that there are three bags with each bag containing
some blue, green, and yellow balls. What is the probability of picking a yellow
ball from the third bag? Since there are blue and green colored balls also, we can
arrive at the probability based on these conditions also. Such a probability is
called conditional probability.

The formula for Bayes' theorem

is P(A|B)=P(B|A)⋅P(A)P(B)P(A|B)=P(B|A)·P(A)P(B)

where, P(A|B)P(A|B) denotes how often event A happens on a condition that B

happens.

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where, P(B|A)P(B|A) denotes how often event B happens on a condition that A

happens.

P(A)P(A) the likelihood of occurrence of event A.

P(B)P(B) the likelihood of occurrence of event B.

Law of Total Probability

If there are n number of events in an experiment, then the sum of the probabilities
of those n events is always equal to 1.

P(A1)+P(A2)+P(A3)+....P(An)=1P(A1)+P(A2)+P(A3)+....P(An)=1

Important Notes on Probability:

Let us check the below points, which help us summarize the key learnings for
this topic of probability.

• Probability is a measure of how likely an event is to happen.

• Probability is represented as a fraction and always lies between 0 and
1.
• An event can be defined as a subset of sample space.
• The outcome of throwing a coin is a head or a tail and the outcome of
throwing dice is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6.
• A random experiment cannot predict the exact outcomes but only some
probable outcomes.

Solved Examples on Probability

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Example: In a bag, there are 6 blue balls and 8 yellow balls. One ball is selected
randomly from the bag. Find the probability of getting a blue ball.

Solution:

Let us assume the probability of drawing a blue ball to be P(B)

Number of favorable outcomes to get a blue ball = 6

Total number of balls in the bag = 14

P(B) = Number of favorable outcomes/Total number of outcomes =

6/14 = 3/7

Answer: Therefore, the probability of drawing a blue ball is 3/7.

Example : There are 5 cards numbered: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Find the probability of

picking a prime number, and putting it back, you pick a composite number.

Solution:

The two events are independent. Thus we use the product of the
probability of the events.

P(getting a prime) = n(favorable events)/ n(sample space)

= {2, 3, 5}/{2, 3, 4, 5, 6} = 3/5

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p(getting a composite) = n(favorable events)/ n(sample space)

= {4, 6}/{2, 3, 4, 5, 6}= 2/5

Thus the total probability of the two independent events= P(prime) ×

P(composite)

= 3/5 × (2/5) = 6/25

Answer: Therefore, the probability of picking a prime number and

a prime number again is 6/25.

Example : An engineering firm is hired to determine if certain waterways in

Virginia are safe for fishing. Samples
are taken from three rivers.
(a) List the elements of a sample space S, using the letters F for safe to fish and
N for not safe to fish.
(b) List the elements of S corresponding to event E that at least two of the rivers
are safe for fishing.
(c) Define an event that has as its elements the points {FFF,NFF,FFN,NFN}.

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.
Example : If S = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9} and A = { 0, 2, 4, 6, 8}, B = { 1, 3,
5, 7, 9}, C = { 2, 3, 4, 5}, and D = {1, 6, 7}, list the elements of the sets
corresponding to the following events:
(a) A ∪ C;
(b) A ∩ B;
(c) C~
(d) (C~ ∩ D) ∪ B;
(e) (S ∩ C)~
(f) A ∩ C ∩ D~

Example : In a high school graduating class of 100 students, 54 studied

mathematics, 69 studied history, and 35 studied both mathematics and history.
If one of these students is selected at random, find the probability that
(a) the student took mathematics or history;
(b) the student did not take either of these subjects;
(c) the student took history but not mathematics.

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Data on machines maintenance are shown below:

Broken out Not broken Total
out
maintained 75 25 100
Not 5 10 15
maintained
Total 80 35 115
a) What is the probability of becoming broken after maintenance?
b) What is the probability of becoming broken if there is no maintenance?
c) What is the probability of not broken after maintenance?
d) What is the probability of becoming broken without maintenance or broken after
maintenance?
e) What is the probability of becoming broken or not after maintenance?

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