PROBABILITY

Probability measures the chance or likelihood of an event to occur. It is about prediction of

Uncertainties which require the laws of chance.

Terms Related to Probability

1. Random Experiment: Is the act which will be ended showing any of the probable result of
the act when is repeated under homogenous condition.
2. Outcome: is a single possible result of a random experiment. It is the most basic unit of
an experiment what you see or record each time you perform the experiment once.
3. The sample space: Is the set of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment. It is
usually denoted by the letter S.

4. Event: An event is any subset of the sample space in a probability experiment.

It consists of one or more outcomes that satisfy a certain condition. If the sample space
is S, then an event E is such that: E⊆S
i) Mutual Exclusive Events: Two events are called mutually exclusive (or disjoint)
if they cannot occur at the same time.
If A∩B=∅, then A and B are mutually exclusive. This means there is no outcome
common to both events.
ii) None Mutually Exclusive Events: Two events are non-mutually exclusive if they
can occur at the same time, meaning they share at least one common outcome.
If A∩B≠∅, then A and B are non-mutually exclusive.
5. Probability: Is the measure of the likelihood that a particular event will occur. It ranges
from 0 (impossible) to 1 (certain).
Number of favorable outcomes
Probability of an event A: P (A) =
Total number of possible outcomes

6. PROBABILITY RULES
EXAMPLES:
1. A fair die is rolled once and the outcome is recorded. What is the probability that the
face showed up has an even number?
2. A bag contains 7 red and 8 blue balls. Find is the probability that if one ball is drawn,
it is either a red or blue ball.
3. A bag contains 5 black, 3 blue, and 4 red balls. If two balls are drawn at random, find
the probability that the two balls drawn are not of the same colour.
4. A gambler records that the probability of winning a game is 8%. If he bought 480
tickets, find the number of tickets that were sold.
5. A packet contains 3 drawing pins and 5 thumb pins. An item is drawn from the
packet. What is the probability that the drawn item is a drawing pin?
6. A packet contains 3 drawing pins and 5 thumb pins. An item is drawn from the
packet. What is the probability that the drawn item is a drawing pin?
7. A box consists of 144 ball pens, of which 20 are defective. A girl will buy a pen if it is
good but not defective. A shopkeeper draws one pen at random from the box and
gives it to the girl. Find the probability that the girl will buy that pen.
8. Cards bearing numbers 3 to 20 are placed in a basket and mixed thoroughly. One card
is taken out from the basket at random. What is the probability that the number on the
card taken out is even?
9. A box has six black, four red, two white, and three blue shirts. Find the probability
that two red shirts and one blue shirt get chosen during a random selection of three
shirts from the box.
10. A six-sided fair die is rolled. Determine the probability that the number that shows up
is even or greater than four.
11. In a class of twenty students, four of the nine boys and three of the eleven girls are in
the athletics team. A student from the class is chosen at random to join in the “egg
and spoon” race on the sports day. Find the probability that the student chosen
is a girl or is in the athletics team.
12. A five-digit number is formed from the digits 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Determine the
probability that the number formed is a multiple of 2 if each digit given may be used
once.

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

Conditional probability is the probability of an event occurring given that another event
has already occurred.
It is written as:
P( A ∩ B)
P ( A∨B ) = , Where, P(B)> 0
P(B)
It can also be arranged as
P ( A ∩B )=P( A∨B)× P( B)

If events A and B are independent, then:

P ( A|B )=P ( A ) Because B has no effect on A.

This reads as “The probability of A given B has occurred”

Key concept to consider include
 P (A|B) means we are only considering outcomes where B is true.
 Conditional probability narrows the sample space to event B.
 Used in dependent events where one event influences another.

Examples:

1. In a class, 60% of students are girls, and 70% of girls passed an exam.
What is the probability that a student is a girl and passed?
2. A fair die is rolled once and the score obtained is an odd number. Determine the
probability that it is a prime number. Events A and B are such that
3. P (A) = 0.45, P (B) = 0.35, and P (A ∪ B) = 0.7. Find P (A / B).
4. Two boxes are labelled I and II. There are 3 green and 4 red balls in box I and 5
red and 9 green balls in box II. A box is chosen at random and then a ball is drawn
from the chosen box. Find the probability that:
(a) The chosen ball is green from box I.
(b) The chosen ball is red from box II
5. Three students A, B, Care asked to develop a computer program. Previous records
certify that A, B and C becomes successful in 60%, 70% and 50% cases,
respectively. If they work done independently, what is the probability that the
program will be developed?
6. In a box there are 2000 electric bulbs. Among these bulbs 1800 are good and 500
are bought from Olivia Company. Out of the good bulbs 300 are bought from
Olivia Company. A bulb is randomly selected and found that it is bought from
Olivia Company. What is the probability that it is a good bulb?
7. In a Mathematics class at Nyigu secondary school 65%, 55%, and 35% are the
Percentage of full-time students, female students, and male full-time students,
respectively. Calculate the probability that a student taken at random from all the
female students is a part-time student.
8. Bikoku draws one card from a complete pack of 52 playing cards, replaces it, and
then draws another card at random from the pack. Determine the probability that,
(a) Both cards are clubs.
(b) Exactly one of the cards is a queen.
(c) The two cards are identical.
9. In a group of 100 people, 40 own cars, 25 own motorcycles, and 15 own cars and
motorcycles. Find the probability that a person chosen at random:
(a) Owns a motorcycle or a car, but not both.
(b) Owns a motorcycle given that he/she owns a car.
(c) Does not own a car given that he/she owns a motorcycle.
10. Two tetrahedron dice with faces labelled 1, 2, 3, and 4 are thrown and a number
on which each lands is noted. The score is the sum of these two numbers.
Calculate the probability that:
(a) The score is even, given that at least one die lands on a three.
(b) At least one die lands on a three, given that the score is even.
11. KRA announced an advertisement for 3 separate posts. The minimum
qualification for each post is Diploma. For the first post of Electrical Engineer 4
candidates applied, 5 candidates applied for the second post of Mechanical
Engineer and 8 candidate applied for the third post of Civil engineer. All
applicants are independent. If a candidate is randomly selected, what is the
probability that he will be selected for either post?
12. Seventy male and thirty female workers are working in a MONACT industry. Ten
percent male and fifty percent workers are working for less than one year. From
this latter group one worker is selected at random. What is the probability that the
worker is a male?